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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice Podcast with me Matt Perrault

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Speaker 1: here on Betting Pros at Sports Talk Matt on Twitter

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Speaker 1: to follow me at Betting Pros to follow Betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: This podcast always being brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: You guys can go to betmgm dot com where it's available.

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Speaker 1: Not in Nevada ten dollars, bet you went one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars regardless winter lose, sign up with that

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Speaker 1: promo cod Juice one P fifty All right, So one

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Speaker 1: in two day, down another point six units and the

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Speaker 1: slide continues. So I'm fully transparent with you guys. I

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Speaker 1: tell you when I'm up, I tell you when I'm down.

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Speaker 1: We had a very good run of about six weeks

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Speaker 1: where we were really consistently winning and doing a really

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Speaker 1: good job. But the last seven days not great. We

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Speaker 1: are eleven and fourteen down on one point sixty five

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Speaker 1: units over the last seven days. So here we go

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Speaker 1: with the dance. Thursday. In Friday, I told you I'm

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Speaker 1: going to bet all four games today in all four

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Speaker 1: games on Friday, smart we'll find out. Let's have some fun.

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Speaker 1: Last night was not great. I had a couple of

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Speaker 1: decent in game live bets in the NBA that kind

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Speaker 1: of saved me a little bit, but it was a

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Speaker 1: down night for me. BYU got thumped, so did Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M did the thumping of wake Forest two

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Speaker 1: bets that were way wrong, and then we had a

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Speaker 1: bit of a sweat but Fresno State did not cover.

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Speaker 1: That's good. Youngtown State covers the thirteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: so we come home with that. So it's a one

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Speaker 1: and two night officially here and now, as I said,

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Speaker 1: eleven and fourteen down one point six to five units

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Speaker 1: over the last seven days. So let's get to the

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Speaker 1: sweet sixteen four plays for you guys coming up here

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Speaker 1: today for the NCAA tournament. I have hmmed a hod

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Speaker 1: and gone back and forth on so many of these bets.

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Speaker 1: So many of these games are coin flips, so whenever

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Speaker 1: that happens, I mean these are half unit bets one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent, okay, I mean two units in play. That's all.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go and have him play today. I

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Speaker 1: don't think I'll bet the NBA. Not sure if I'm

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Speaker 1: going to bet any NHL. Probably just gonna bet the

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Speaker 1: four college basketball games. And that's it, because these games

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Speaker 1: are tough and I'm a little concerned about these picks.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to the picks, let me tell

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Speaker 1: Steaks dot com. Keyword juice. All right, so I'll go

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Speaker 1: in order of the games being played here for us

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Speaker 1: in the NCAA Tournament, Arkansas Gonzaga is the first game.

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Speaker 1: This is going to be really interesting now. Line is

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. Kempom has this as a ten

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Speaker 1: point win for Gonzaga. The Zags, I mean, have you

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Speaker 1: seen some of their shooting percentages and what we've seen

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Speaker 1: for some of their players, from their top players. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's an interesting deal because historically, I mean, this season,

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Speaker 1: this is a really good shooting basketball team and a

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Speaker 1: team that should be scoring more than you know, eighty

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Speaker 1: two and even maybe more than ninety three points like

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Speaker 1: they have. They only beat Memphis eighty two to seventy eight.

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Speaker 1: And in that game, it was kind of like, hmm,

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Speaker 1: all right, how does Gonzaga What does Gonzaga look like

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Speaker 1: as they move forward? Because shooting wise nine of twenty

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Speaker 1: seven from behind the three point line and chet Holmgren

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Speaker 1: zero for three from behind the three point line. He

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Speaker 1: didn't play well four of seven, scored nine points and

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Speaker 1: nine rebounds. Okay, Drew Timmy at twenty five, which was big.

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Speaker 1: Nemhart had twenty three, which was big. Their bench was

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Speaker 1: non existent, scored two points. They don't play a deep

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Speaker 1: bench anyway, but I thought it was a little interesting

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Speaker 1: that they've not seen typical Chet Holmgren type basketball games

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Speaker 1: for a dude averaging over fourteen points per game, grabbing

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Speaker 1: nearly ten boards per game, but so far nineteen against

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Speaker 1: Georgia State, nine against Memphis, eh. Not great. This could

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Speaker 1: be a big game for Chet, kind of a coming

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Speaker 1: out party here because there's going to be a massive

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Speaker 1: size advantage in the paint for Gonzaga. The zag so

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Speaker 1: far this season fifteen fourteen and two ats eight and

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Speaker 1: seven on the road, three six and one. Though over

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Speaker 1: their last ten Arkansas has been an absolute barn burner

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Speaker 1: here when it comes to crazy basketball games. They're twenty

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Speaker 1: and fifteen. Okay, twenty and fifteen. They have on five

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Speaker 1: and five over the last ten, ten and seven on

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Speaker 1: the road, but Arkansas hasn't covered in the last three games.

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Speaker 1: Didn't cover against the mexicgal State, didn't cover against Vermont,

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Speaker 1: didn't cover against Texas A and M. Did cover against

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Speaker 1: LSU and Tennessee, but didn't cover against LSU in their

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Speaker 1: final home game, didn't cover against Kentucky in their second

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Speaker 1: and last home game. I mean this team has only

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Speaker 1: covered two times over the last seven games. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a blowout. I think Arkansas's run, I think

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Speaker 1: their defense. I think they'll make mistakes. I think Check

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Speaker 1: could have a big game. I think Timmy could have

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Speaker 1: a big game. Big, big size advantage for Gonzaga here

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Speaker 1: up against Arkansas. I like the Zags. I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 1: the nine and a half. Gonzaga wins by double digits

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Speaker 1: here going away against Arkansas, they take care of business

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Speaker 1: in advance to the Elite eight. Gonzaga half a unit

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Speaker 1: laying the nine and a half points. All right, Game

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Speaker 1: number two is Michigan and Villanova. So if you look

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Speaker 1: at Kenpom kempom for this game, with Nova eleventh ranked

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Speaker 1: in Kenpom, they have this as a five point win

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Speaker 1: for Villanova. What's the line five over Michigan? All right,

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Speaker 1: here is a Nova team. It's eighteen fifteen and two

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Speaker 1: ats away from home, they're eleven nine in two Michigan

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Speaker 1: nine to nine. Number has been kind of pingponging a round.

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Speaker 1: It's five four and a half five. I think it's

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Speaker 1: too late. I really do. I think this team that

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Speaker 1: beat Ohiose Date by ten, beat Delaware by twenty, beat

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Speaker 1: Creighton by six, beat Yukon by three, beat Saint John's

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Speaker 1: didn't cover that game, beat Butler by nineteen, beat Providence

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Speaker 1: by two, laying ten and a half straight up. This

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Speaker 1: team has won seven consecutive games and they've only lost

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Speaker 1: two games dating back to the beginning of February. All Right,

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Speaker 1: this Nova team is very experienced, They're very difficult to beat.

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Speaker 1: They're extremely well well coached. And this stat from Fox

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Speaker 1: Sports scared me a little bit. But I'm gonna follow

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Speaker 1: the trend just because teams undefeated team coaches minimum ten

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Speaker 1: game coached in the dance against seeds A eleven or

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Speaker 1: lower Dean Smith fourteen and OH John Thompson ten and

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Speaker 1: OH Jay Wright fourteen and oh. If Jay Wright wins

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Speaker 1: this game against Michigan today, Jay Wright will become the

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Speaker 1: all time leader in coaches up against teams eleven seeded

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Speaker 1: or lower in the NCAA tournament. Is that a jinx maybe?

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Speaker 1: Or maybe you just follow the trend. I'm gonna follow

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Speaker 1: the trend Jay Wright and company. They beat Michigan I

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Speaker 1: get the post play from Michigan, it's going to ben

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Speaker 1: be very difficult. I think the magic runs out here

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Speaker 1: a little bit from Michigan. They've covered three of their

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Speaker 1: last four. They've been playing really, really well. They beat

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Speaker 1: Tennessee as seven point dogs. They beat Cutterall State as

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Speaker 1: one and a half point dogs, sorry point favorites, lost

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Speaker 1: to Indiana in the Big Ten tournament. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a team that's been playing very very well

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Speaker 1: down the stretch, but they've won three of the last five.

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Speaker 1: I think this is where it comes to an end

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Speaker 1: for Michigan here. I think the guard play for Nova

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Speaker 1: is too experienced, the three point shooting is too experienced.

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Speaker 1: Nova grinds it out. Villanova wins. I think they can

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Speaker 1: win by double digits. I'm gonna lay the five Villanova

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Speaker 1: minus five up against Michigan for a half a unit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: those are two plays for US here. So first bet

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Speaker 1: nine and a half, laying it with Gonzaga. Second bet

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Speaker 1: laying five with Villanova. Third game and man alive. This

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Speaker 1: is a hard game to bet Texas Tech in Duke.

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Speaker 1: I've gone back and forth, back and forth, back and forth.

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Speaker 1: I think there are only two ways to bet this.

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Speaker 1: Duke in the over, Texas Tech in the under, okay,

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Speaker 1: because I would rather and I'll personally go with the over.

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Speaker 1: So you know where I'm going here. I I will

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Speaker 1: personally be on the over. I will have a bet

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Speaker 1: on the over tonight. However, if you look at Duke

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Speaker 1: with Ken Palm, they have this as a one point

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Speaker 1: win for Texas Tech. Okay, Duke is catching one point.

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Speaker 1: There's your line. Duke is a dog. Really rare for

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Speaker 1: Duke to be an underdog. A lot of people are

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Speaker 1: betting on Texas Tech Okay. Total is one thirty seven

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Speaker 1: again leading over Duke eighteen sixteen and two ats ten

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Speaker 1: and eight on the road, just one in four over

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Speaker 1: the last five though for Duke against the number. Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech not much better twenty two and fourteen on the year,

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Speaker 1: but just two and three over the last five and

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Speaker 1: four and six over the last ten. Ten and eight

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Speaker 1: on the road this year away from home for Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech beaten und Dame by six eight point dogs Tech

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Speaker 1: didn't cover, killed Montana State by thirty five, laying fourteen

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Speaker 1: and a half, lost to Kansas by nine in the

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Speaker 1: Big Twelve tournaments, beat Oklahoma by one, laying seven and

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Speaker 1: a half points. They killed Iowa State in the first

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Speaker 1: game of the Big twelve Tournament when I won by

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Speaker 1: thirty one points, but they lost to Oklahoma State on

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Speaker 1: the road, beat Kennastate just by five, laying thirteen, lost

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Speaker 1: to TCU by five. This is Coach k neutral court

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Speaker 1: this year. Okay against Kentucky laying two and a half,

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Speaker 1: one by eight, against Gonzaga catching eight and a half,

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Speaker 1: won by three, going all the way to the Big

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Speaker 1: d AC Tournament. Against Syracuse laying fifteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: they won by nine. Against Miami of Florida laying nine,

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Speaker 1: they won by four. Against Votec laying six, they lost

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Speaker 1: by fifteen. Against cal State Fullerton, laying eighteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: they won by seventeen. And against Michigan State they were

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Speaker 1: laying six and a half and they won by nine.

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Speaker 1: Think Duke showed me something at the end of that game.

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Speaker 1: In the final three minutes, I thought that was going

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Speaker 1: to be puckering time, and they would go, Oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: are we going to blow this? Are we going to

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Speaker 1: lose this game? For Coachka, for Coach K and Tom

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Speaker 1: Izzo is going to end our coaches career didn't happen

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Speaker 1: with Izzo. I don't think texts the team to do it.

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Speaker 1: I think Duke survives. I think Duke wins. It's going

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Speaker 1: to be an absolute nail bider flip a coin type

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Speaker 1: of game. Duke wins and the over or Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: wins and the under. You can correlate it, you can

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Speaker 1: parlay it. I think it's a decent way of playing it,

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Speaker 1: just going to stay away from potentially me being wrong.

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Speaker 1: And the game goes under and Duke wins by two

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Speaker 1: last second shot. Something crazy. You know, look referees and

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Speaker 1: Duke and coach k It's a TV show, Duke. You

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Speaker 1: know it would be crazy if we wind up seeing

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Speaker 1: Duke and Gonzaga playing for a chance to go to

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Speaker 1: the final four. Monster Monster ratings. Yes, I do kind

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Speaker 1: of factor that into handicapping. Unfortunately, Duke plus one taking

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Speaker 1: the Blue Devils for a half a unit and finally

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Speaker 1: a game that I equally am confused about. But I'm

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Speaker 1: making a bet anyway. Houston and Arizona. This game, my goodness,

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Speaker 1: this game. Kem Palm has Houston as the second best

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Speaker 1: team in the country, Arizona number three. They are right

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Speaker 1: next to each other, but Arizona is favored. Kem Palm

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Speaker 1: has got this as a one point win for Houston. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of this. To be

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Speaker 1: completely frank, this is tough. Okay, Arizona laying one and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's nineteen fifteen and two. Arizona verses twenty

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Speaker 1: four and twelve Houston Houston nine and one over to

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Speaker 1: last ten, five and oh over the last five, five

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Speaker 1: and five, Arizona against the spread two and three over

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Speaker 1: the last five Arizona eleven seven and one away from

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Speaker 1: home ats Houston thirteen and six. Houston has covered their

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Speaker 1: last five games, all neutral site games. They have won

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Speaker 1: and covered Illinois by fifteen, UAB by fourteen, Memphis by

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Speaker 1: eighteen two, Late by twenty, Cincinnati by thirteen. Who this

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Speaker 1: cower team's hot. Here's the problem. Much like Arkansas, Houston's

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Speaker 1: got a problem in the pain. Arizona's got bigs. They

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Speaker 1: got bigs on bigs, and they got Arizona can't dominate

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Speaker 1: the glass against Houston because the Houston forwards can jump

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Speaker 1: with the Arizona forwards. This game is gonna be wild.

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Speaker 1: It's in San Antonio. You're gonna have a Houston crowd.

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Speaker 1: Cougar crowd. Okay, Kug's gonna be there. They're gonna show out.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be a tough environment in Arizona, But I

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Speaker 1: think Arizona's gonna travel because here's the thing. When you're

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Speaker 1: one of the top teams in the country, you kind

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Speaker 1: of assume your team's gonna be in the sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 1: You don't buy the first two rounds, you buy the

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Speaker 1: regional final tickets. You go ahead and say, okay, where

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Speaker 1: are we We're gonna go ahead. So that's interesting to me.

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Speaker 1: At least it could neutralize how much of a home

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Speaker 1: court advantage Houston could have here playing in San Antonio.

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Speaker 1: Can't wait to see this game. It's gonna be very,

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Speaker 1: very wild, entertaining basketball game. It's the last game of

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Speaker 1: the night. I think it's gonna be super close. I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be super fun. I'm gonna lay the

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Speaker 1: one and a half points. I'm gonna hope it doesn't

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Speaker 1: burn me. It's minus one twenty five on the money line.

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Speaker 1: If you want to skip that and just take money line,

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Speaker 1: you can do that. I don't know if we're gonna

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Speaker 1: need it. I know this should be tight. I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying this is a full proof, like go with it.

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Speaker 1: My first read on this was to take Houston, and

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Speaker 1: then I looked a little bit deeper and I don't

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Speaker 1: like Houston's size. I think Arizona's gonna have a big

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Speaker 1: size advantage down low. Lay the one and a half

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Speaker 1: with Wildcats half a unit, Arizona minus one and a half. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we're going minus nine and a half Gonzaga up

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Speaker 1: against Arkansas. We're going Nova minus five up against Michigan.

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Speaker 1: We're taking Duke plus one up against Texas Tech. And

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Speaker 1: we're gonna lay the one and a half with Arizona

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Speaker 1: up against Houston. Quick little fun stat from Frankie Todayo

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Speaker 1: from SI Gambling, who gave me this stat yesterday which

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Speaker 1: I like a lot. Straight up, over the last two years,

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Speaker 1: the lower the higher seeded team has gone eleven and

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Speaker 1: five straight up, but eight and eight against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Which eight teams are going to win and cover? That's

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Speaker 1: the question. Kind of tough, right, eight games a year,

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Speaker 1: it's kind of tough. But Arizona and Duke, it's kind

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Speaker 1: of like a pick eem low spreads Novah's five Zags

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Speaker 1: mine nine and a half. I think we're seeing Zags

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Speaker 1: and Duke, Arizona and Nova into the Elite eight. Here

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Speaker 1: on a Thursday, Mine's Matt Parolt to follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each every morning it's Deljuice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I was being brought to you by MGM