1 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at 3 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and. 4 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 2: I'm Aldana Hire, a cross asset reporter with Bloomberg. 5 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: And this week on the show, Well, the recent failure 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 1: of some regional banks has turned investors' attention to the 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: health of the credit markets and the possibility of a 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: so called credit crunch in which the availability of debt 9 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:40,000 Speaker 1: financing becomes drastically reduced. So what kind of shape are 10 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: credit markets in right now and what can we expect 11 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. We'll get into it 12 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: with a veteran portfolio manager in the fixed income markets. 13 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: But first though, Donna, I have to ask, have you 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: done all your Mother's Day shopping? 15 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: I haven't bought anything for anybody? 16 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: Nothing for not anybody mom. 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: Not for my mom, not for my my husband's mom, 18 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 2: not for his grandma. 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: Nothing, nothing. A terrible daughter. 20 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 2: I'll just buy flowers on the day off. I guess, okay, 21 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 2: But we are flying to Florida to see my husband's grandma. 22 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 2: She's ninety nine. Ohs, she's turning one hundred in August. 23 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: Oh my god. 24 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 2: So that's the gift. Really, you know, Okay, have you 25 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 2: done your shopping? 26 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: I've got a reservation for my wife. 27 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 2: That sounds nice that you're making me feel bad. You're 28 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 2: making me feel a little bad. 29 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: Of course I waited till last week and there's no 30 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 1: reservations left, so I have a three thirty. 31 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 2: No, you don't the worst time. It's like not brunch, 32 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 2: but also not dinner. 33 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: What is it? I don't know what it is. 34 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:44,199 Speaker 2: You're lucky. The restaurant is even I'm. 35 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: Trying to convince her. It's the new hip thing. Yeah, 36 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:47,559 Speaker 1: everyone's brunching it. 37 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 2: It's early early bird, yeah, early the earliest, but late. 38 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: It's a late night brunch. 39 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 2: Nice. Nice, that's perfect. Anyway, our guest is waiting for us. 40 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 2: I do want to bring her, and I'm so excited 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 2: to have her on. I've heard her speak so many times. 42 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: I'm so happy she could join us for the podcast. 43 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 2: It's Elaine Stokes, executive vice president and portfolio manager and 44 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 2: co head of the Full Discretion team at Loomis Sales. Elaine, 45 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: thank you so much for coming on the podcast. 46 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. 47 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 2: Like I mentioned, I've been to a bunch of you 48 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 2: guys's events I've heard you over the last couple of 49 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 2: years talk about your many different outlooks, but maybe we 50 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 2: can just start with you just giving us a quick 51 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 2: overview of who you are and what your role entails. 52 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 3: Okay, well, I am obviously you mentioned my name, Elaine Stokes. 53 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 4: I've been working at Loomis for thirty five years this week. 54 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 4: I am part of what we call the full Discretion Team. 55 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 4: What we manage is multisector portfolios. We take a long 56 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:52,399 Speaker 4: term opportunistic approach, so active management, which. 57 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 3: Has been a little out of othe as of late. 58 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 4: But I think something that people are are, you know, 59 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 4: eyes open to again now that we're starting to see 60 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 4: some value in the market. 61 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: You know, Elaine, I know you keep close eye on 62 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: credit markets in your role, and there's been so much 63 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: talk lately after the failure of these regional banks about 64 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: a potential quote unquote credit crunch. So far, I'm not 65 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of like hard data evidence of it. 66 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: If you look at say, high yield spreads, they seem 67 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: pretty well contained. I know that FED Senior Loan Officer 68 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 1: survey showed a little bit of an increase in tightening 69 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: of standards, but nothing sort of through the roof. They're 70 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 1: obviously are pockets of weakness commercial real estate, mortgage backed securities. 71 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: Those spreads are getting pretty wide. But I'm curious how 72 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: you're thinking about sort of the macro conditions for credit 73 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: right now. Is that a real risk of a credit 74 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: crunch where supply of credit gets greatly curtailed because of 75 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: all these issues that we've seen in the banks. 76 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 4: It seems to us that what has happened and what 77 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 4: we've really seen out of this banking turmoil, i'll. 78 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: Call it, is that we have seen. 79 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 4: A proof point that all these moves by the FED 80 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 4: are finally working. 81 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 3: But they're working in. 82 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 4: People's risk appetite going down for things like new technology, crypto, 83 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 4: even some private equity. But we're not seeing it in 84 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 4: our day to day life right We're not seeing it 85 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 4: to the extent that you would expect to be seeing 86 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 4: it in normal day to day borrowing. What my fear 87 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 4: is is that if we continue to have equity markets 88 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 4: telling us that regional banks aren't safe, then regional banks 89 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 4: and banks in general will then continue to tighten and 90 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 4: continue to tighten. 91 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 3: Their standards, and that's going to start to hit those 92 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 3: small and medium sized businesses. If that happens. 93 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 4: I think we all have a different view of what 94 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 4: the recession will look like. Being the week prior to 95 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 4: Mother's Day, and Regulate is liking to come out and 96 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 4: give us something on Sundays. 97 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 3: I was thinking that maybe. 98 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 4: That would be the regulator's gift to us, is that 99 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 4: they gave us something that would quiet down this. You know, constant, 100 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,280 Speaker 4: let's take a run at the regional banks and then 101 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 4: settle down. Take a run at the regional banks and 102 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 4: settle down, and would get something that would would put 103 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 4: that potential crisis of confidence that we're all looking at 104 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 4: and kind of put it to bed once and for all. 105 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 3: We have strong. 106 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 4: Banks, and it's a confidence game, and we need to 107 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 4: do something to swelch that confidence or it is going 108 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 4: to start to affect the economy. 109 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 2: So you said in your notes, obviously a lot rides 110 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 2: on a resolution to the banking issues. How plausible is 111 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 2: it to actually see something like the universal Deposit insurance 112 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 2: or how do you actually see things playing out going forward? 113 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 4: You know, I really think a lot of it rides 114 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 4: on watching what happens to the equities of these regional banks, 115 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 4: because that's the only place we're still you know, keeping 116 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 4: our eye on and watching where that fear is coming. 117 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 4: If we can get to a steady state, maybe we're 118 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 4: going to have an orderly merger or two beyond what 119 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 4: we've already had, then I think we're past it. But 120 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 4: if we I think the next two weeks are critical, 121 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 4: and having the negotiations in Washington kind of hanging over 122 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 4: our head at the same time definitely has the ability 123 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 4: to make markets. 124 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 1: Overreact, you know, And obviously it all comes back to 125 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 1: interest rates and the path for the Fed this year. Elaine. 126 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: We did get CPI data this week, headline number four 127 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: point nine percent, that about one tenth from the previous month. 128 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 1: Core at five point five percent, also down about a tenth, 129 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: but really not aggressively normalizing the way it did, say 130 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: last summer. What's your big picture view on where the 131 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: Fed and rates markets are headed in general? Given this 132 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: inflation scenario that the worst it seems to be over, 133 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: but we really kind of seem to be plateauing almost 134 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: at some pretty elevated levels. What do you expect for 135 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: the rest of the year as far as rates and 136 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: the Fed? 137 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, so, because of the short term reasons we already mentioned, right, 138 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 4: what's what's happening with the regional banks and the debt 139 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 4: sailing talks. I think the FED will absolutely pause at 140 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 4: its next meeting. 141 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 3: But longer term. 142 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 4: Our view is that there are some big picture secular 143 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 4: trends that are going to keep inflation elevated, not necessarily 144 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 4: elevated at five percent, you know, but I think it's 145 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 4: going to be really really hard to get to target. 146 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 4: You know, we believe that the FED is going to 147 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 4: be a little slower to react in cutting rates. 148 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 3: We think the market's a little bit ahead of itself here. 149 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 4: The market, I think is pricing in, you know, one 150 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 4: of those first two short term items going horribly wrong 151 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 4: and the FED having to come in and really cut. 152 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 4: We think that, you know, this is what we refer 153 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 4: to as the four d's. Right, we have demographics we're 154 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 4: working against us. We have deglobalization working against us. We 155 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 4: have decarbonization working against us. 156 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:32,599 Speaker 3: In growing deficits. 157 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 4: Right, we have those four things that we all you know, 158 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 4: are familiar with that are all potentially inflationary, and it's 159 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 4: going to be hard for the FED to kind of take. 160 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 3: The foot off the pedal completely. 161 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 4: It just doesn't feel like a strong cutting cycle is 162 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 4: in our future. 163 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 2: Can we talk about what the market is expecting, because 164 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 2: the market is pricing in cuts, you know, as early 165 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 2: as July, which is like in a couple of weeks basically, 166 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 2: so like what is behind that thinking there? And then 167 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 2: almost everybody I talked to is like, that is not 168 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 2: going to happen. The Fed is not going to be 169 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 2: cutting in July. 170 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 4: The only way that really makes sense to me is 171 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 4: that the market is saying in putting pressure on the 172 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 4: government to get its act together and come to an 173 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 4: agreement or to figure out how to make this bank 174 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 4: situation go away. 175 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: Right. 176 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 4: I feel I got some market saying, hey, we're here 177 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 4: telling you to get your act together, because it doesn't 178 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 4: make sense given the economic numbers that we're seeing. You know, 179 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 4: we're still seeing some up, some down, you know, a 180 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 4: very mixed bag of economic numbers, and still have too 181 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 4: many good potentials wrong drivers of this economy. 182 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 3: So that just does not make sense. 183 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 4: And I just think it's the market using whatever lever 184 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 4: it has to get the attention of the regulators to 185 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 4: force the fence hand. 186 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,240 Speaker 1: I guess yeah, you know, Elaine, it's kind of a 187 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 1: fascinating time to be surveying the fixed income landscape because 188 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: there's some tremendous opportunities in the front end. You know, 189 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: even in a money market phone you can get five 190 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: percent basically yield right now. So I'm curious, what where 191 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 1: are you seeing value? You know, is is the front 192 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: end the place to be right now with these high 193 00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: yields or is it you know, what are you looking 194 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,280 Speaker 1: at is terms as attractive corners of fixed income right now? 195 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 4: What I love about fixed income is is you kind 196 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 4: of have to triangulate. Right, it's great. We have over 197 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 4: five percent in the short end, you know, up from 198 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 4: under two percent, and for the last several years, any 199 00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 4: of us would look at five percent as wow, that's 200 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 4: that's an healthy return. 201 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 3: Let's not forget that inflation is still around five percent. 202 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 4: If you take more risk, get involved in in high 203 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 4: yield we're talking about eight and a half to nine 204 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 4: percent type of yields, so that's really attractive. So the 205 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 4: yield levels has gotten really interesting. Spreads have also gotten 206 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 4: much larger than they were a year ago. Right we're 207 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 4: pretty much almost doubled in spread levels that we're getting 208 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 4: from our tights, So that means that we're we're getting 209 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 4: paid a bigger premium to take on some risk. Is 210 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 4: it enough that it looks like we're getting paid as 211 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:41,719 Speaker 4: if we're in a downturn or a recession. 212 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 3: Not quite. 213 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:48,839 Speaker 4: But the difference right now is that the dollar price 214 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 4: is lower. We have been living in a market where 215 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 4: dollar prices for bonds have been well over par for 216 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 4: very long time, and now we're looking at dollar prices 217 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,320 Speaker 4: that index averages are close to ninety cents on the dollar. 218 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 4: So not only can you buy that bond at the 219 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 4: five percent or the eight and a half percent, but 220 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 4: you also have the potential to go up those ten 221 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 4: price points if there's any type of positive economic news 222 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 4: or specific news. So when I look at all three 223 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 4: together and really think about the technicals in the market, 224 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 4: and when I talk about the technicals in the market, 225 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 4: what I'm really referring to is the lack of issuance. 226 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,439 Speaker 4: We've had very very low issuance levels over the last 227 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 4: few years. Borrowers have gone private and that has made 228 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 4: a big difference in the markets in the number of 229 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 4: buyers out there looking for product. So when I consider 230 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 4: all that together, I think that there's value in this market, 231 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 4: and it's in the short and yes, but we also 232 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 4: can go down the risk spectrum a little bit and 233 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 4: pick up some nice, low dollar priced bonds that have 234 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 4: the potential to go up in a lot of xcess yield. 235 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 2: Elaine, we had this very interesting interview with Bill Gross 236 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 2: earlier this week where he said that he really likes 237 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 2: one month tea bills because he thinks the debt ceiling issue, 238 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: although it's a risk that it will get resolved. And 239 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 2: so I'm curious, like if somebody came to you, if 240 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: a client came to you and you know, asked you 241 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 2: about tea bills, what would you advise them? And this 242 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 2: is my sort of runabout way of asking you how 243 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 2: you're managing and thinking about the debt ceiling issue. 244 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 4: I look at it as a bump in the road. 245 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 4: We've seen this movie before. Yes, it feels a little 246 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 4: bit worse. I was just noting that, you know, credit 247 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 4: DeVault swaps and US credit devult swaps are now wider. 248 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 3: Than Greece, Brazil, Mexico. 249 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 4: Like I could go on and on, right, but when 250 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 4: all is said and done, everybody in that room knows 251 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 4: they have to come up with some type of agreement. 252 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 4: The alternative is too bad politically for both sides. Do 253 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 4: I think it makes sense to be super short. Yes, 254 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 4: there is value there. But what I would say is, 255 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 4: let's take advantage of the volatility. The volatility that I 256 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 4: think we're going to have over the next couple weeks 257 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 4: is going to be the opportunity. So take advantage of 258 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 4: that opportunity to buy a little further out the curve, 259 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 4: to buy low dollar price bonds, to build in real 260 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 4: return for a long time. 261 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 3: Why stay. Maybe I'm too much of a risk taker. 262 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 4: I was brought up in the high yield market, but 263 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 4: these are the periods going into the downturn that you 264 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 4: build your long term portfolios. So that's what I would 265 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 4: use this opportunity for. 266 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: So you do think high yield is worth the risk 267 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: if we do get some volatility, even with all the 268 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: recession concerns floating around. 269 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 4: Yes, I don't believe that this time around it's going 270 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 4: to be the traditional high yield market that's going to 271 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 4: see the big wave in defaults. That is going to 272 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 4: happen in either the bank loan market or the private market, 273 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 4: and then we might not even see them as defaults 274 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 4: because a lot gets worked out behind the scenes there. 275 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 3: But that's where the weaker. 276 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 4: Issuance has come and you know, the lower quality issuance. 277 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 4: So the traditional high yield market is actually setting up 278 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 4: to look pretty attractive, you know, Eleaene. 279 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: I wanted to rewind a little bit because you mentioned 280 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: something that I had intended to ask you about, and 281 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: that is the shift into private credit that we've seen. 282 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how many stories I've seen 283 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: about you know, borrowers tapping into the private credit markets 284 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,080 Speaker 1: more and more. I don't think we quite have the 285 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: visibility into it and the transparency to put dollar figures 286 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: on how big of a shift it's been. But clearly 287 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: there's been a big shift into private credit. I'm curious 288 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: what you think is driving that. I mean, is it 289 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: simply a matter of less paperwork, less need for disclosure, 290 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: that sort of thing, or is there more to within that. 291 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 3: I think there's a lot of things that have been 292 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 3: driving that. 293 00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 4: Part of it was, and I do want to tell 294 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 4: you that kind of that straight line up has started. 295 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 3: To roll over. 296 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 4: Okay, so a little bit less year to date has 297 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 4: been going into the private markets versus the public markets 298 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 4: were starting to shift. Rates were so low, so much 299 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 4: money was looking for something better to do a place 300 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 4: where they could get higher returns, so they were going 301 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 4: to the private market. 302 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 3: That cash was going to the private markets. So now 303 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 3: the private markets. 304 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 4: Were flushed with all this cash and what are we 305 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 4: going to do with it? And they started putting together 306 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 4: and what we call them club deals. They started to 307 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 4: join forces, friends getting together, and they would puck deals 308 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 4: right out of the public market, print them a little 309 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 4: bit about the same level or even a little bit 310 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 4: tighter than they would have happened in the public market. 311 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 4: But for the issuer, they took away that market risk, 312 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 4: you know, that process of having to bring it out 313 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 4: into the market as an issuer. 314 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 3: Oh it's you know, it's five buyers. 315 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 4: This is going to be much easier to negotiate if 316 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 4: we do get ourselves into trouble. And a lot of 317 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 4: this debt that came there was single B and below, 318 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 4: you know, so it was definitely riskier type of debt. 319 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 4: It kind of set itself up on both sides to 320 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 4: be advantageous. Now with money being pulled back from taking 321 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 4: on that excess risk and short rates at five percent, 322 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 4: do we really need to go into that type of risk, 323 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 4: So money is pulling away from it, and those same 324 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 4: deals that come into the market, and whether they're private 325 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 4: credit or bank loans, we're seeing them come to the 326 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 4: market and looking to come back to the high yield market. 327 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,800 Speaker 4: So we're starting to go full circle on this whole swing. 328 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 4: The bottom line is, I think this is one of 329 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 4: the most fascinating parts of the debt markets right now. 330 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 4: These markets are converging. It's getting harder and harder to 331 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 4: tell the difference between the high yield market, the bank 332 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 4: loan market, and the private debt market, and the players 333 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 4: are a lot of the same players. 334 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,120 Speaker 3: The syndicate desks. 335 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 4: Are you know, for new issues, are all talking to 336 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 4: each other, and you know, almost any given deal, you 337 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 4: could find a way to put it into the market 338 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 4: that you want it to be in if you're a 339 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 4: large enough buyer. So it's really become an interesting part 340 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 4: of the market and we're watching it really really closely 341 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:00,720 Speaker 4: as potent she'll. 342 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 3: Supply coming back into the debt markets. 343 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 2: Elaine, I wanted to ask you because we're talking about 344 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,400 Speaker 2: all of these different risks that potentially are on the horizon. 345 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 2: One of them, which you touched on, is that potentially 346 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 2: inflation proofs you know, stickier than people think the other 347 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 2: one is that we are misreading the labor market. And 348 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 2: I'm wondering what your thought is on that, Like how 349 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,719 Speaker 2: potentially we might be misreading it. 350 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, labor has been sticky. 351 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 4: An other words, unemployment has stayed surprisingly low. We had 352 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 4: a significant number of cross currents during COVID that took 353 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 4: a lot of labor out of the market. But aside 354 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 4: from that, we've also had some really big structural changes. 355 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 4: We have the baby boomers getting older and getting to 356 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 4: that age of retirement. 357 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 3: It's a different cohort. 358 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 4: They're looking at retirement as let's go, you know, get 359 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 4: a condo in Florida and play pick a ball and golf. 360 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 2: That sounds really nice. Actually, I would love to be 361 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: doing that right now. 362 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 4: And they have more means to retire early. I think 363 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 4: a lot a lot of people were looking at that 364 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 4: as a fluke, the early retirements and people coming out 365 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 4: of the labor force through COVID. You know, don't forget 366 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 4: how big that baby boomer cohort is. They're going to 367 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 4: continue to be coming out of the labor force at 368 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 4: a faster pace. 369 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 3: And I think at the at the same time. 370 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 4: Anecdotally locally, what I've noticed is when when we decide 371 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:46,159 Speaker 4: we're going to go out to dinner. 372 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 3: Just an example, we decide we're going to go out 373 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 3: to dinner, we. 374 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 4: Have to really think about which restaurant is open which 375 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 4: day because all of the restaurants in our area are 376 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 4: short staffed. 377 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 3: So what they've started to. 378 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 4: Do is closed down for a cup days a week. 379 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 4: And it's not just happening there. It's not just happening 380 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 4: in the restaurant industry. It's happening that type of thing 381 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:13,159 Speaker 4: is happening where you know there is a need or 382 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 4: companies would like to give better service, have more employees, 383 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 4: but they're just on the employees to hire. I think 384 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 4: there's some pent up demand there for labor that will 385 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 4: come back in if. 386 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:28,360 Speaker 3: The labor market loosens up. 387 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 4: So I do think if there's anywhere where we might 388 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 4: be misreading, is that the pressure on the labor market 389 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,399 Speaker 4: and potentially wages might stick around a little bit longer. 390 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: Well, Elaine Stokes, the new kid on the block, only 391 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: thirty five years at Loomis Hills. Great to catch up 392 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 1: with you. We're almost out of time. We can't let 393 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 1: you go yet though, because Lol, Donna's going to tell 394 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,639 Speaker 1: us the craziest thing she saw in markets this week. 395 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,280 Speaker 2: Okay, remember last week I had a kind of lame 396 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 2: one about Wendy's the chili and the can or whatever. Okay, 397 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 2: this week's is also about Wendy's. I haven't been to 398 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: Wendy's in years, but Frosty's in the can. No, this 399 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 2: is so interesting. Oh that's a really good idea. They 400 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 2: should sell that at grocery stores. I would definitely buy 401 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 2: Frosty's ice cream anyway. Wendy's is going to start testing 402 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:39,400 Speaker 2: an AI powered chat bot for drive through orders, so 403 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 2: you can go to Wendy's, go through the drive through, 404 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 2: and potentially be talking to an AI chat bot to 405 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 2: take your place your order. 406 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 1: She makes a lot of sense, especially given Elaine's restaurant 407 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: worker shortage. 408 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and isn't that so cool? Like up until now, 409 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 2: mostly when we're when any of us have interfaced with 410 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 2: AI stuff, it's like you going to chat GPT and 411 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 2: iking you to write you a song around and this 412 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:04,479 Speaker 2: is like you're out in the real world, You're not 413 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 2: looking for AI stuff, and potentially you run into this, 414 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 2: you know, chat spot, Yeah exactly. Yeah, hopefully then I'll 415 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 2: mess it up. 416 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: That's pretty interesting, I thought, so, yeah, all right, that's 417 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,479 Speaker 1: a good one. How about you, Elaine, see anything crazy 418 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 1: this week? 419 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 4: I'm really struggling between my silly one and my serious one. 420 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 4: I think my silly one a little bit goes with yours, 421 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 4: and it is how new technology is being used in 422 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 4: a strange way. 423 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 3: Sea urchins, you know what. 424 00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,399 Speaker 4: Little sea urchins are not well known fact. They like 425 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:44,399 Speaker 4: to put rocks and shells on their heads to keep predators. 426 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 3: In the sun away. 427 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 4: So at an aquarium, some of the workers at the 428 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 4: aquarium decided to make them to three D print them hats. 429 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 4: You know, there are going to be uses we're not 430 00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 4: expecting from AI, from three D printing, from all this 431 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 4: technology that's happened over probably this last ten years. 432 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: I'll say I was not expecting that one. 433 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 2: That's awesome, honestly, that's so good. That's a really good one. 434 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 4: And then my serious one is I don't know if 435 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 4: you saw the story about temperatures in Vietnam. 436 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 3: Reaching forty four point one. 437 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 4: Degree celsius that's one hundred and eleven degrees. Thailand tapped 438 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 4: out at forty four point six celsius. 439 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 3: That's one hundred and twelve degrees. There is a major 440 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:33,959 Speaker 3: heat wave going on. 441 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 4: These are record temperatures. These are temperatures where it doesn't 442 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 4: matter if it's dry heat or not. I mean, these 443 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 4: are crazy temperatures. 444 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 3: And it just got my mind going. 445 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 4: You know, we have been so focused and so worried 446 00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 4: about heating Europe in the winter. Now we need to 447 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 4: worry about cooling the planet. 448 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great point, especially those when those heat 449 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: waves hit Europe and the air conditioning is in the electricity. 450 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 2: It effects also food supply chains, tourism at. 451 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,720 Speaker 1: Such a Yeah, that's true. That is some hot temperatures. Though, 452 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 1: all right, I'll give you mine. So Steve Jobs, Uh 453 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,680 Speaker 1: oh no, I didn't look. I didn't pekin Veldona. 454 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 2: I have my eyes closed. 455 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 1: Steve Jobs famously did not like to give autographs, so 456 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 1: which means that in the collector's market his old checks 457 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,959 Speaker 1: are very much a hot item. Who was he banking 458 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 1: with Apple was Wells Fargo? Wow, it's a check from 459 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 1: the seventies up for sale on our our auctions. Still 460 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 1: six hours left to go for the bidding. Okay, sign 461 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,240 Speaker 1: checked by Steve Jobs. Elaine, It's time to play the 462 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 1: prices precise not. 463 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 2: The price is right. 464 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: The price is precise. I'll warn you there are six 465 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 1: hours left in the auction as of the time we're recording. 466 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: But the bidding is pretty close to what his last 467 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 1: sign check sold for, so I think we're pretty close 468 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 1: in the price discovery, what do you think the going 469 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,880 Speaker 1: bid is for? Were assigned cashed Steve jobs check. 470 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,560 Speaker 2: I'm going first, you go first. One hundred and fifty 471 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:07,120 Speaker 2: thousand dollars. 472 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,360 Speaker 1: One hundred and fifty thousand dollars. That's a very confident 473 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 1: and quick answer. 474 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:10,879 Speaker 2: Thanks. 475 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:15,360 Speaker 1: Thanks Elaine, you know the rules. What do you think 476 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 1: the bid is for? Assigned check Apple computer company check 477 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 1: signed by Steve Jobs. 478 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 4: I was going to say exactly what you said, so 479 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 4: I am gonna take a leap. 480 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 3: Three hundred and thirty three thousand. 481 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: Wow. Wow, you guys are big spenders. 482 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 2: Don't tell me it's like ten thousand. 483 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:37,880 Speaker 1: Currently I had fifty three thousand. 484 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:39,159 Speaker 2: Oh that's so much. 485 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: The well come in my experience with these things is 486 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 1: someone comes in with a high bid at the end. 487 00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: Last year's was fifty five thousand for a. 488 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 2: Piece of paper. Hop that doesn't mean anything. 489 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,320 Speaker 1: Hop on there and bid away. Beldada, you got success. 490 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, these bidders would love to have me. 491 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,159 Speaker 2: I just overbid on every. 492 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,719 Speaker 1: Show Tier one hundred and fifty thousand. 493 00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:59,959 Speaker 2: Yeah wow, not that you much? 494 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 1: And maybe it is alone? All right? Now you got 495 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,399 Speaker 1: me thinking maybe maybe I should bet on it. It seems underpriced. 496 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: Wildna Kaipar fifty three thousand dollars. 497 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, let me just spend more with you, all right? 498 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:10,679 Speaker 1: Thank you. 499 00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 2: You're welcome. 500 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 1: With that, said Elaine Stokes of Bluma, seals great to 501 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: catch up with you. Really appreciate you allowing us to 502 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 1: pick your brain on the markets. 503 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 3: Had a good time, great, Thank you. 504 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Elaine. What Goes Up We'll be 505 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,440 Speaker 2: back next week. Until then, you can find us on 506 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,160 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal website and app, or wherever you get 507 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 2: your podcasts. We'd love it if you took the time 508 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 2: to rate and review the show so more listeners can 509 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 2: find us. You can find us on Twitter, follow me 510 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 2: at Wildona Hirik. Mike Reagan is at Reaganonymous. You can 511 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 2: also follow Bloomber Podcasts at podcasts. What Goes Up is 512 00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 2: produced by Stacey wom and our head of podcas cast 513 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 2: is Stage Problem. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.