Speaker 1: The volume this week on Prime Cutch Chad Millman, Sharp
Speaker 1: or Square, John Middlekoff on Brock Pretty and the Red
Speaker 1: Hot Niners, and my top takes of the week. All Right,
Speaker 1: so two things. One, Kansas City needs to go get
Speaker 1: a wide receiver at the trade deadline, Jerry Judy Cortland Sutton.
Speaker 1: I think Denver at this point would trade in division.
Speaker 1: I think Denver's got to figure out Denver. I think
Speaker 1: they know they're not in the same stratosphere as Denver
Speaker 1: knows they're not in Kansas City's galaxy. So they used
Speaker 1: to be sort of an unwritten rule. You just didn't
Speaker 1: trade in division, try not to trade in conference. If
Speaker 1: you're Sean Payton, you're staring at Russell Wilson's contract. You
Speaker 1: got to solve your stuff. You can't worry about that.
Speaker 1: You can't worry anybody you trade them is not going
Speaker 1: to be around in two or three years. Probably anyway,
Speaker 1: Kansas City moves off star receivers, they move off all receivers,
Speaker 1: including Tyreek Hill and others, Juju Smith, Schuster one and done.
Speaker 1: So Kansas City is a really good football team, but
Speaker 1: I think the entire league looks at San Francisco and
Speaker 1: looks at the way they thrash Pittsburgh's roster and the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: You're going to really struggle to move the football if
Speaker 1: you're the Chiefs against that San Francisco defense, if you
Speaker 1: eventually face them, or Philadelphia's defense for that matter. So
Speaker 1: Chiefs go get a wide receiver to deadline. We've been
Speaker 1: talking about that for a couple of weeks. When you
Speaker 1: have Andy Reid and Mahomes and you're scoring nineteen and
Speaker 1: dominating time and possession, you need another pop on the perimeter.
Speaker 1: You know, as far as Denver, there's just no way
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson's going to last half of this contract. New
Speaker 1: owner Sean Payton. You can say what you want about
Speaker 1: Sean Payton, but he, next to Andy Reid, is the
Speaker 1: most innovative offensive guy in the last fifteen years in
Speaker 1: the NFL. I know half a dozen players that have
Speaker 1: played for him, loved him, thought he was just a
Speaker 1: brilliant coach. And there's a reason, you know, many people
Speaker 1: wanted to interview him. He's the smartest football coach I've
Speaker 1: ever interviewed on a consistent basis in terms of knowledge
Speaker 1: of offense. It's I mean just layered beyond layered. He
Speaker 1: won with Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees, he won with a
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, a winning record, never been shut out. I mean,
Speaker 1: he knows what he's doing. I know people didn't like
Speaker 1: the call he made tonight at the end of the
Speaker 1: first half. It doesn't matter. There's no salary cap for coaches.
Speaker 1: He's going nowhere. The GM might get replaced now. The
Speaker 1: good news for Denver, even with Russell Wilson's contract, you
Speaker 1: can turn things around really quickly in this league. This
Speaker 1: is not Major League Baseball, where you need like four
Speaker 1: drafts and certain teams have spending limitations. Right, Like a
Speaker 1: third of Major League Baseball, maybe half, just can't compete
Speaker 1: with the Houstons and the Dodgers and the Mets financially.
Speaker 1: It's not the NBA where you really have to have
Speaker 1: three high end players to compete for a championship. City
Speaker 1: has one elite defensive player. Bolton's a very good linebacker,
Speaker 1: but Chris Jones is your Pro bowler. The bottom line,
Speaker 1: young and cheap on defense works. You know you're gonna
Speaker 1: spend your money on quarterback, left tackle, star receiver or
Speaker 1: tight end. That's where the smart teams in this league
Speaker 1: like Kansas City spend their money on offense. The teams
Speaker 1: like Pittsburgh that are spending their money on defense, when's
Speaker 1: their last big playoff win in the last decade? Right, So,
Speaker 1: you know, you get rid of some players, you get
Speaker 1: yourself ten or eleven draft picks, you hit on seven
Speaker 1: of them. I mean, the Rams had fourteen guys make
Speaker 1: the team this year out of the draft. I think
Speaker 1: it was fourteen. I could be wrong on that number.
Speaker 1: And they've been much better defensively than anybody thought, so
Speaker 1: you can turn it around. I mean, the Seahawks had
Speaker 1: back to back drafts where they nailed their first four
Speaker 1: or five picks. That's ten players. And that's what Denver
Speaker 1: has to do. They've got to nail five or six
Speaker 1: players per draft over the next two years and have
Speaker 1: a lot of, you know, for lack of a better term,
Speaker 1: cheap labor. I mean, they got to have inexpensive players,
Speaker 1: a lot of third, fourth, fifth, sixth round guys. And
Speaker 1: when you're not a great defensive team like the Rams
Speaker 1: coming into this season, you can do that. Fifth round
Speaker 1: guys have an impact. So but this just isn't gonna work.
Speaker 1: I mean, ninety five yards passing, seventeen yards passing I think,
Speaker 1: or thirty two yards passing in the first half for
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson. It's just not gonna work. And you know,
Speaker 1: people say, well, it's not Russell's fault. Listen, when that
Speaker 1: game was thirteen nothing, it felt over. It would not
Speaker 1: have felt over with Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts,
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. So Russell Wilson is the problem.
Speaker 1: If you trail thirteen to nothing against the good defense
Speaker 1: and the game feels over at any point other than
Speaker 1: the last five minutes, the quarterbacks the issue. It doesn't
Speaker 1: mean he's the worst player on the team. It doesn't
Speaker 1: mean there are other issues, but his salary, combined with
Speaker 1: his lack of jewe, he's the issue. Right. It's really
Speaker 1: unprecedented where you see a star quarterback with no major
Speaker 1: injury drop off a cliff. It's unprecedented in the history
Speaker 1: of the NFL. I've never seen anything like it. I mean,
Speaker 1: I saw Peyton Manning at the end five years older
Speaker 1: than russ is now and four next surgeries go from
Speaker 1: really good to you know, clearly not the same quarterback.
Speaker 1: Russ has never had a major injury. He's a workaholic.
Speaker 1: It's just, you know, Pete Carroll saw a lot of things.
Speaker 1: He saw him age quickly, and now it's Sean Payton's problem.
Speaker 1: So it's just not going to last very long. This
Speaker 1: owner and this coach. I think that they're going to
Speaker 1: try to accumulate a lot of picks and somewhere in
Speaker 1: this draft, a very strong quarterback draft, try to get
Speaker 1: themselves the next guy. I'm dead serious. I just don't
Speaker 1: think they're going to be patient, especially in the Afcats
Speaker 1: is what fired coaches say. You know, that's what they preach.
Speaker 1: You got to get stuff solved. Watching Philadelphia, I still
Speaker 1: don't think Philadelphia is playing as well as they're capable
Speaker 1: of playing. But if you watched every snap of that
Speaker 1: Rams game, or most of them, and I did, that
Speaker 1: was one of the more physically dominating performances I've ever seen.
Speaker 1: They had over four hundred and fifty yards. They had
Speaker 1: a thirty eight to twenty two minute time of possession edge,
Speaker 1: twenty eight first downs to seventeen. They were impeccable on
Speaker 1: third down, and the score is not even remotely indicative
Speaker 1: of what the game was like Philadelphia just smushed and
Speaker 1: pounded and buried and punished the Rams for three and
Speaker 1: a half hours. You know, Cooper cup got some nice
Speaker 1: catches early. But mcveigh's a great coach. You have some
Speaker 1: really nice players for the Rams. They're young. But this
Speaker 1: is really what separates to me the Philadelphia from everybody
Speaker 1: except the forty nine ers in football. A Buffalo can
Speaker 1: beat you, soak in Kansas City, so can Cincinnati. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of teams that can beat you. The two
Speaker 1: teams last year San Francisco teams the following week after
Speaker 1: playing the Niners. I think every team the following week lost.
Speaker 1: They don't beat you, they punish you, they hurt you.
Speaker 1: I feel the same way with Philadelphia, and I don't
Speaker 1: even think they're clicking. But between AJ Brown and Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts and the dominating offensive line, they just get yards
Speaker 1: when they need it. They have no personnel shortcomings. They
Speaker 1: can do virtually anything they want to do. That doesn't
Speaker 1: mean they always do it well. You know, a well
Speaker 1: coached team will do well what their personnel allows them
Speaker 1: to do well. You know they're shortcomings. I'll get to
Speaker 1: the Jets in the second. They do that they do
Speaker 1: well what they can do with their personnel. But Philadelphia
Speaker 1: there's everything. They have a quarterback that can throw and
Speaker 1: can move. They can play power football and go over
Speaker 1: the top. They get a great pass rush. On the
Speaker 1: other end. You know their secondary may not be as
Speaker 1: good as it was in previous years. But you know,
Speaker 1: the NFC, the team that you're concerned about San Francisco's
Speaker 1: got Brock Purty, or Dallas has Dak. You don't feel
Speaker 1: like you know your B B plus quarterbacks are going
Speaker 1: to pick you apart because the pass rush you create.
Speaker 1: So Philadelphia is such an impressive organization and they do
Speaker 1: what very few teams do in the NFL. They pivot
Speaker 1: a lot, and they remain successful. Bill Belichick can't pivot
Speaker 1: off Brady. Patriots are a clown show. They can't pivot once.
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll's pivoted four times in Seattle. Philadelphia pivoted off
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. They pivoted off Nick Foles. They just keep changing.
Speaker 1: Pivoted off Chip Kelly. This team is stacked. Now, you
Speaker 1: know the offensive line, they got some older players, Kelsey
Speaker 1: the center, but you know they've drafted well up front
Speaker 1: as well. So I just don't think Philadelphia has any shortcomings.
Speaker 1: I think they can match up with anybody in the
Speaker 1: league and can go toe to toe with anybody. I mean,
Speaker 1: think about this, Have they played a great game yet? Nope,
Speaker 1: They're five and zero Phillies National League Championship Series again.
Speaker 1: So a lot of people in baseball are discouraged or
Speaker 1: disappointed that the Rays and the Orioles and the Dodgers
Speaker 1: and the Braves, who had dominating regular seasons all got
Speaker 1: flushed out of the playoffs rather quickly. But I talked
Speaker 1: about this on FS one today. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: a terrible thing. I think the Phillies with Bryce Harper
Speaker 1: are a great watch. And I mean it's you know,
Speaker 1: the Rays, the Orioles don't have national followings, So I
Speaker 1: don't think it's bad for the networks, you know, at all.
Speaker 1: I think the reality is baseball is an everyday sport,
Speaker 1: and when you give favorites they don't have to play
Speaker 1: in that wildcard round, they get five six days off.
Speaker 1: I think that's problematic for those teams. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's problematic for baseball because again I think the Phillies
Speaker 1: to me, are as much fun or a better watch
Speaker 1: due to Bryce Harper than the Braves. But the bigger
Speaker 1: issue is the Yankees weren't very good this year. In
Speaker 1: the Red Sox weren't very good this year, and the
Speaker 1: Mets were a complete disappointment. And so if the Yankees
Speaker 1: were a viable franchise, Houston's got a following, Phillies have
Speaker 1: a following, you'd be fine. But you know, baseball did
Speaker 1: a lot of things right in the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: They speed the game up attendant and TV ratings are
Speaker 1: up about ten percent. They got rid of the defensive shift.
Speaker 1: I thought that was very smart. They'll never get rid
Speaker 1: of Bay games and get down to like one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty games a year, which I think they should.
Speaker 1: I think they should start a month later, finish six
Speaker 1: weeks earlier, and wrap it up by October first or
Speaker 1: September fifteenth. By the time the NFL's cooking getting into
Speaker 1: it second week, you're done. NFL is so popular now
Speaker 1: that baseball stands very little chance of pulling away audience.
Speaker 1: You know, if you get into late October you have
Speaker 1: to have the Yankees or like the Cubs going for
Speaker 1: a World Series. You're just not going to be able
Speaker 1: to do it unless you have the biggest brands, And
Speaker 1: there's some crappy TV football games on which you know
Speaker 1: it's Thursday night on Amazon. Those games are usually pretty dull.
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's necessarily a problem that wildcard
Speaker 1: teams win. I think it's the reality of baseball that
Speaker 1: it's an everyday sport. The Dodgers offense dried up, the
Speaker 1: Braves offense dried up. Okay, But if you're really honest
Speaker 1: about it is that postseason baseball is a different experience
Speaker 1: entirely in a different sport than regular season baseball. So
Speaker 1: you know, regular season baseball is a marathon, it's a triathlon,
Speaker 1: and the postseason is about getting a hit, getting a stop,
Speaker 1: getting an out. You'll bring a star pitcher out of
Speaker 1: the bullpen to get an out and get a win.
Speaker 1: If you want to seal a series, or you have
Speaker 1: a weaker pitcher going the next night against their superior pitcher.
Speaker 1: You need outs. You need to create momentum. Now, you
Speaker 1: need urgency. That's not the regular season. So you know,
Speaker 1: I just think analytics are true, and they work in
Speaker 1: both the NBA and baseball, and they're and they're smart,
Speaker 1: But postseason Baseball is completely different, and the NBA playoffs
Speaker 1: are different. Sometimes you just need a bucket, you need
Speaker 1: a mid range jumper. So you know, I use the
Speaker 1: analogy today that when you take your kids in a
Speaker 1: five or six hour drive, same kids, same car, it's
Speaker 1: different than taking a nine minute drive to school. Right,
Speaker 1: It's a different sensibility and a different strategy with young
Speaker 1: kids in a car for six hours, and so you know,
Speaker 1: same kids, same car. You know, same teams, same players,
Speaker 1: same manager, different strategy in the postseason. So the time
Speaker 1: off I think can be problematic for favored teams. And
Speaker 1: you know, the doctors didn't you know they had a
Speaker 1: domestic issue with a picture of domestic violence, issue with
Speaker 1: a pitcher, Kershaw's age and injuries, so they didn't really
Speaker 1: have a true ace. And Freddy Frame and Mookie Betch
Speaker 1: just didn't hit, which is it's harder to hit in
Speaker 1: the postseason. It's superior pitching, more pressure. So golf and
Speaker 1: baseball are that way bigger the tournament, more pressure, those
Speaker 1: putts get harder. So listen, I can't wait to watch
Speaker 1: the Phillies. I think they're a great team, and I
Speaker 1: think Bryce Harper is the biggest star remaining in the sport.
Speaker 1: So I do not think it's terrible news for Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball. John Middlecoff three and out in the volume.
Speaker 1: So obviously, when you have a quarterback, you think about
Speaker 1: what's their salary. I mean, if Russell Wilson was a
Speaker 1: seventh round pick, everything in Denver would feel completely different
Speaker 1: than his five year contract kicking in next year. Right,
Speaker 1: So if you consider contract age, mobility, accuracy, talent, and
Speaker 1: I said today, Brock Purty or Dak Prescott, it's not
Speaker 1: even close. I would take Brock Purdy, It's not even close.
Speaker 1: Dak now is not mobile. He's had too many lower
Speaker 1: extremity injuries. Dak's a pocket thrower, but he was never
Speaker 1: a great pocket passer like Russell Wilson. Although Russell throws
Speaker 1: a pretty your ball, Russell needs mobility to be Russell Wilson.
Speaker 1: A big part of Dak was that he could move.
Speaker 1: He no longer moves, So I get a below average
Speaker 1: pocket thrower who's super expensive. Brock Purty makes way too
Speaker 1: many good throws to be a system guy. Dude hitting
Speaker 1: things down the middle tonight. And it sounds crazy, but
Speaker 1: you have to consider what you pay players. Once you
Speaker 1: pay guys Burrow Mahomes, Herbert Allen Lamar, Well, those are
Speaker 1: special talents. Dak's got a special contract. He's an average
Speaker 1: pocket guy. Look at that lineup for the Niners. If you,
Speaker 1: for instance, John if Brock made what Dak made, you
Speaker 1: couldn't have Fred Warner couldn't You couldn't have been able
Speaker 1: to get Christian McCaffrey. You probably would have to get
Speaker 1: rid of one of year d linemen. It's not the
Speaker 1: same team, right, It's a good team, it's not quite
Speaker 1: this team.
Speaker 2: Well, when the forty nine Ers made the trade for
Speaker 2: Trey Lance, you know, the logic of trying to swing
Speaker 2: for the fences and get a star was in the
Speaker 2: right place. But a driving force was they wanted that
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback contract. And my big thing is the rookie
Speaker 2: quarterback contract isn't that relevant when the guy can't play.
Speaker 2: Part of what made Dak such a good draft choice
Speaker 2: back in the day was he he was a solid player, right,
Speaker 2: solid Kirk Cousins back in the day. And then obviously
Speaker 2: we've seen in recent memory some of the star quarterbacks drafted.
Speaker 2: Brock Purty won.
Speaker 3: He's really good.
Speaker 2: I mean, you just watch if you just watch NFL football,
Speaker 2: like that guy's really good.
Speaker 1: John Kyle Shanahan didn't make Blaine Gabbert or Trey Lance
Speaker 1: great players. Not all quarterbacks work with Kyle right, Like Brock,
Speaker 1: Brock's really good.
Speaker 2: Well listen, and the other thing about Brock you just
Speaker 2: hit on. With Dak Prescott, there were a couple of
Speaker 2: plays a night. It's like, Dak, for god, did Drake
Speaker 2: Greenlaw and Fred Warner are the best linebacking duo in
Speaker 2: the league. Their play speed is elite for their position.
Speaker 2: And he rolled out a couple of times. It's like, Dak,
Speaker 2: what are you doing? You know, get rid of the ball.
Speaker 2: If you're not going to be the athlete that you
Speaker 2: once were after the ankle injury, you can't scramble away
Speaker 2: from these guys, can't. And then Perdy the underrated part
Speaker 2: about his game, because I remember I listen, I'd be
Speaker 2: lying if I said I watched that much Iowa State football.
Speaker 2: But the one thing that was immediate when he started playing,
Speaker 2: and the biggest difference between him and Jimmy and they
Speaker 2: obviously won a ton of games with Jimmy ye was
Speaker 2: Jimmy's lack of mobility after the ACL injury and his
Speaker 2: just ability to playmake outside of the pocket. When you
Speaker 2: watch Perdy scramble, you're confident that something good is gonna happen.
Speaker 2: How about the touch that he has on the move.
Speaker 2: When you're playing with this much talent, Everyone's like, well,
Speaker 2: he's playing with a lot of talent. Well, you ain't
Speaker 2: got to get him the ball. How many players have
Speaker 2: we've seen play with other good players? Larry Fitzgerald can
Speaker 2: tell you played with a million quarterbacks, couldn't get him
Speaker 2: the rock over the years. This guy you just watch him.
Speaker 2: Obviously he's a little smaller, but listen, I mean his
Speaker 2: this fucking kid can play bottom line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, and again it's Mark Brunel was a
Speaker 1: late pick, Brady, Kurt Warner, Romo. It's not shocking. We've
Speaker 1: seen guys undrafted and I think there's a ceiling, but
Speaker 1: it's not a Mac Jones ceiling. He moves really well
Speaker 1: and they don't ask him to throw a ton of
Speaker 1: deep balls. I mean, they just don't this, you know,
Speaker 1: it just it's funny, like the Dak's rookie year. In
Speaker 1: the first couple of years, you know, he got an
Speaker 1: MVP voter to his first year in the league, and
Speaker 1: so much of that was you weren't paying Dak anything.
Speaker 1: So they had the old line, they had Zeke. It
Speaker 1: was an all star team, even their defense. I went
Speaker 1: and looked it up the other day. Was top five
Speaker 1: in the league. Dallas right now, because once you pay
Speaker 1: that quarterback, I mean, Kansas City's roster is not great. Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: there's holes in that thing. Everybody's roster has a hole
Speaker 1: except San Francisco. I mean.
Speaker 2: So, I think also when you take a quarterback high,
Speaker 2: you like a specific guy and you get aggressive, from
Speaker 2: Josh Allen to Mahomes to when the Texans drafted Deshaun
Speaker 2: Watson to Baker Mayfield, like you like that guy. To me,
Speaker 2: when you get a guy in the third, fourth and beyond,
Speaker 2: there's an element of luck right at quarterback because teams
Speaker 2: are passing on the guy. It's easy to look back. God,
Speaker 2: look how good perty is. But at the time, I mean,
Speaker 2: he was one spot away from being an undrafted free agent.
Speaker 2: But you cannot value and I think it's pretty clear
Speaker 2: guys like him. You and I have talked about it.
Speaker 2: When you go to Alabama or Georgia, you have such
Speaker 2: an advantage on a weekly basis, right, you really do. Hell,
Speaker 2: we'll probably talk about Kleb a little bit later. I
Speaker 2: think he's benefiting a lot, or at least scouts are
Speaker 2: gonna benefit watching him play. It's not as easy this year,
Speaker 2: like he has to make shit happen. His team has
Speaker 2: a huge advantage. Well, perty his entire career, we're going
Speaker 2: into games either as underdogs or having less talent than
Speaker 2: their opponents. So you have to learn learn how to play.
Speaker 2: So now you watch him, well, he clearly knows how
Speaker 2: to play, and now he has the talent around him,
Speaker 2: and it's bombs away. I mean they feel, I mean
Speaker 2: clearly like one of the better teams we've seen in
Speaker 2: terms of the way they start and just how the
Speaker 2: level in which they're playing in recent memory in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Oh, I think honestly, again, if you had even a
Speaker 1: good quarterback Kirk Cousins, you could not have the same roster.
Speaker 1: You would not get both of those linebackers, you know
Speaker 1: you wouldn't. You would not have been able to acquire
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey. Well, if you take Christian McCaffrey and Fred
Speaker 1: Warner off this team, it's not the same team. That's
Speaker 1: the best linebacker in the game and the best running
Speaker 1: back right now, and what they can use.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: It's the other thing is when I mean, we've all
Speaker 1: had a bunch of bosses in our life, but when
Speaker 1: you're in sports, basketball is and hockey or really so fast.
Speaker 1: But in football you huddle. Football plays are choreographed, so
Speaker 1: you can on that bench as a football player, right.
Speaker 1: Baseball is very individual. If a guy's hot on the mound,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot you can do. I get basketball's
Speaker 1: moving one thousand miles an hour, and football, you know
Speaker 1: when the other coach is better than your coach. Like
Speaker 1: Dallas players are watching this Rubik's Cuba and offense, you
Speaker 1: know they're going, shit, we're getting worked tonight, right, like
Speaker 1: a player would know that. All right, Chad Millman had
Speaker 1: a great week. We had a great week five and
Speaker 1: zero off our four and one week hit nine of
Speaker 1: ten sharper square. Chad. Of course, the CEO of the
Speaker 1: Action Network. All of our odds are provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: So I tend to be like Warren Buffett of value Seeker, right,
Speaker 1: I tend to take points. But I went back and
Speaker 1: look at why I was struggling in the first two weeks,
Speaker 1: and then I made a little switch. As the league's
Speaker 1: become more quarterback centric. I was taking off in the
Speaker 1: second best quarterback in game, though I was getting value,
Speaker 1: So I said, listen, it's becoming more quarterback centric, so
Speaker 1: I'm not going to do that. I'm going to seek value,
Speaker 1: but not be afraid to take some favorites. So I'm
Speaker 1: going to start with some favorites. So I'm not getting
Speaker 1: the best line. But if you watch the raven Steelers play,
Speaker 1: Baltimore was a much better team two drop touchdown passes.
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson is having a spectacular season. Dropped passes are
Speaker 1: like fumbles and fumble recoveries. They go in spurts. Baltimore
Speaker 1: is a really good team getting healthier. I don't think
Speaker 1: Tennessee is it's four and a half. I'd like it four.
Speaker 1: It is what it is. I get the much more
Speaker 1: dynamic quarterback. I also get a great coach, no coaching disadvantage.
Speaker 1: The rabel Baltimore minus four and a half Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Well, it's square, but but it's not square like some
Speaker 4: of your other square picks. Yeah, this is sort of
Speaker 4: square in the sense that wise guys are taking the
Speaker 4: Titans because of the number and nothing else.
Speaker 3: Your logic is sound.
Speaker 4: The conversations I had today were exactly what you just said.
Speaker 4: The Ravens actually played really well last week. Zay Flowers
Speaker 4: dropped the pass that was wide open, like there were
Speaker 4: there were three or four spots where that game was
Speaker 4: over if the Ravens receivers catch a pass.
Speaker 1: Open open, like wide open.
Speaker 3: Wide open, and so it was.
Speaker 4: It was a very fluky, fluky game, right, Like in
Speaker 4: what universe right now, should Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh
Speaker 4: Steelers be tied with the Baltimore Ravens right for first
Speaker 4: place in the AFC nors right? So your your logic
Speaker 4: is sound, and it's why a lot of wise guys
Speaker 4: have had a hard time with this game. It opened
Speaker 4: at five and a half, got that down to five,
Speaker 4: got to four and a half, got down to four.
Speaker 4: When it got to four, that was sort of the
Speaker 4: breaking point and people started betting on the Ravens again.
Speaker 4: The challenge here that I think is screwing a lot
Speaker 4: of people up is the fact it's a London game,
Speaker 4: and if it was, if it wasn't a London game,
Speaker 4: you'd have Vrabel as more than a field goal underdog.
Speaker 4: And there are a few coaches in the NFL who
Speaker 4: wise guys will automatically bet if they're underdogs. Vrabel is
Speaker 4: one of them. Mike Tomlin is one of them. John
Speaker 4: Harbaugh is one of them.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: The flip side is that John Harbaugh is not very
Speaker 4: good as a favorite and Lamar is actually terrible as
Speaker 4: a favorite. So I think the wise guys are trying
Speaker 4: to figure out what do I think of the London
Speaker 4: factor in all this, and it's scaring them a little bit,
Speaker 4: But they're taking the Titans.
Speaker 1: One more favorite. I like the number at two and
Speaker 1: a half. It'll probably be three in most areas. Bengals
Speaker 1: minus two and a half hosting Seattle, so well, Seattle
Speaker 1: has extra time. I value extra time differently with offensive
Speaker 1: coaches who bring more tricks Andy Reid, McVeigh, Shanahan than
Speaker 1: I do defensive coaches who are largely motivators. They give
Speaker 1: guys rest. They want healthy defensive guys. I don't look
Speaker 1: at Pete Carroll, Tomlin Belichick extra at rest like I
Speaker 1: do Andy Reid or McVeagh. So I get a more
Speaker 1: rested Seattle team, But I get a significantly better quarterback
Speaker 1: who now is healthy. So the Bengals for three straight
Speaker 1: years have been a lousy September early October team. Why
Speaker 1: Burl had two surgeries and a calf injury. It's about
Speaker 1: this time Cincinnati hits. These games are also urgent for them,
Speaker 1: so they play with great urgency early in this division.
Speaker 1: That's good. Minus two and a half, I think it's
Speaker 1: a great number. Minus three, I'd still bet at three
Speaker 1: and a half. I move off at Sharper square.
Speaker 4: At two and a half, at sharp at three. It's
Speaker 4: not So it's really this is about the number, and
Speaker 4: you know, to use a football metaphor, it's a fifty
Speaker 4: to fifty ball, right. It's really about how much do
Speaker 4: you believe in Joe Burrow? And a lot of professional
Speaker 4: betters believe that what they saw with last what they
Speaker 4: saw last week with Joe Burrow is that he's better.
Speaker 4: And part of it is, Hey, every year the Bengals
Speaker 4: starts slow, he's injured, he takes time to get his timing.
Speaker 4: Jamar Chase the past two weeks has basically against the
Speaker 4: Rams and then against the Cardinals has basically had a
Speaker 4: season's worth of receptions and receiving yards, like he's really
Speaker 4: found his rhythm with Joe Burrow again. And what the
Speaker 4: Wise Guys liked about Joe Burrow last week. It's not
Speaker 4: the fact that they beat the Cardinals, who probably are
Speaker 4: a team that has been overperforming regardless, and kudos to
Speaker 4: their coaching staff for getting so much out of that talent.
Speaker 4: But it was the way Joe Burrow was able to
Speaker 4: move into the pocket, he was able to get around offenders,
Speaker 4: maintain his stance, step into throws, find his timing with
Speaker 4: Jamar Chase. That's what they like about it. I mean,
Speaker 4: I'm sure you and Cosell, you know, probably talked about
Speaker 4: this on the show this week. But that's why they're
Speaker 4: betting on the Bengals of two and a half. And
Speaker 4: they do feel if they had looked a little bit
Speaker 4: better one week earlier, they might be getting the Bengals four.
Speaker 4: So there's about a point and a half of value.
Speaker 4: But at three, they buy back the Seahawks or they
Speaker 4: pass the market.
Speaker 1: Sometimes is a week late. I just think they're a
Speaker 1: week late on Cincinnati. I think they're by the end
Speaker 1: of this game, they'll catch up to Cincinnati. So let's
Speaker 1: go to underdogs. So the Rams lost to the Eagles,
Speaker 1: but if you watch the game, it wasn't close. When
Speaker 1: you play Philadelphia and your defense is on the field
Speaker 1: for forty minutes, that team that will have repercussions this week.
Speaker 1: I don't love Arizona, but at plus seven six and
Speaker 1: a half, the stadium is not a home field advantage.
Speaker 1: Numbers came out this week showing that home field is
Speaker 1: now down to one and a half points. Well, the
Speaker 1: Rams is less than that, so it's really do I
Speaker 1: think a Rams team off a Philadelphia game in which
Speaker 1: they got beat up physically. I don't like teams that
Speaker 1: play the next week after they play the Niners or
Speaker 1: the Eagles in the NFC. The seven here, the six
Speaker 1: and a half is screaming Arizona for the record Vision
Speaker 1: rivalry game. Arizona played San Francisco tougher than you'd expect.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the point Sharper square.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: The Cardinals are a real conundrum for better this year,
Speaker 4: as have the Rams been a conundrum for betters this year.
Speaker 4: Because the Cardinals everyone expected them to be the worst
Speaker 4: team in the league, and certainly there was a lot
Speaker 4: of mocking of Jonathan Gannon before the season began with
Speaker 4: his social interactions with his players, right, that sort of
Speaker 4: became a meme on social media. And what you've seen
Speaker 4: with the Cardinals and what you've seen with the Colts,
Speaker 4: and a byproduct of this is what you've seen with
Speaker 4: the Eagles is how good Gannon has been and putting
Speaker 4: his pilayers in a position to succeed, making the right
Speaker 4: play calls that give them confidence in high risk situations
Speaker 4: that put them in a better position statistically to win.
Speaker 4: Saint Stikeen's done the same exact thing with the Colts,
Speaker 4: which is why professional betters are liking the Colts and
Speaker 4: not so worried about Gardner Minshew also seen with the Eagles,
Speaker 4: the lack of those two guys has had an impact
Speaker 4: on how they play on defense and how they play
Speaker 4: on offense, which is a testament to how good they were.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: The Rams meanwhile, and I'm equivocating a little bit here,
Speaker 4: The Rams meanwhile, have been great against the spread until
Speaker 4: this past week. So the wise guys have come in
Speaker 4: on the Rams because this number has gone up. But
Speaker 4: there's not a ton of confidence on this game. It's
Speaker 4: not a game where I've got my phone blowing up
Speaker 4: and people are saying, oh my god, I love the
Speaker 4: Cardinals here, or oh my god, the Rams are exact
Speaker 4: right spot.
Speaker 3: It's sort of like you took the Rams at six
Speaker 3: and a half. It's at seven. We're going to kind
Speaker 3: of pass from here.
Speaker 4: I want to take sha I do think I will
Speaker 4: say one more thing like Colin. I think people thought
Speaker 4: the Cardinals were at the top of the market after
Speaker 4: the Cowboys, and they've done everything they can do with
Speaker 4: the talent they have. Josh Jobs was not as good
Speaker 4: last week. They've been a little bit exposed. There's only
Speaker 4: so much coaching that you can do when you're talent
Speaker 4: isn't up to park.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take Chicago extra rest plus two
Speaker 1: and a half. I think it's a locker room game.
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson's out trade rumors Kirk Cousins, the white flag
Speaker 1: is up inside the locker room. Players are now playing
Speaker 1: just to be capable on film of not getting called
Speaker 1: out on Monday. Chicago feels like we found the magic potion.
Speaker 1: Chicago has an energized locker room. Justin Fields is playing
Speaker 1: to retain his position, and Kayleb Williams not yet drafted
Speaker 1: this is an energized team at home, extra rest found
Speaker 1: their magic. I think you're going to get a Minnesota
Speaker 1: team that I think the messaging is waving the white flag.
Speaker 1: I take the Bears. I love it.
Speaker 5: At three two and a half, I still like it.
Speaker 5: Sharper Square, Yeah, that's sharp. Whyse guys like the Bears here,
Speaker 5: It's why it's been bet down. It was at three,
Speaker 5: it went down to two and a half. It's a
Speaker 5: fascinating game, and in a lot of weeks you probably
Speaker 5: want to play the Vikings because of this situation they
Speaker 5: just found themselves in and the situation the Bears found
Speaker 5: themselves in, which was winning in prime time. So bookmakers
Speaker 5: will automatically inflate their line, right, they would be a
Speaker 5: little bit higher than they normally would because they think
Speaker 5: the public is going to come in on a team
Speaker 5: that just dominated in prime time. What's interesting here is
Speaker 5: a lot of what you just said about the Vikings.
Speaker 5: They might be the better team, but strategically they have
Speaker 5: not been making the right calls on defense. This is
Speaker 5: a team that is blitzing at an extraordinary rate, one
Speaker 5: of the highest blitz rates in the NFL, with the
Speaker 5: least amount of success right, So they're getting to the
Speaker 5: quarterback on blitzes half the amount of time as other
Speaker 5: teams in the NFL, even though they're running so many
Speaker 5: more blitzes. I do think that plays a little bit
Speaker 5: to the Bears advantage with the way they're starting to
Speaker 5: use Justin Fields as a runner a little bit more.
Speaker 5: And also DJ Moore and him have started to click.
Speaker 4: And if you look pat, if you look back, one
Speaker 4: of the reasons people were so excited about the Bears
Speaker 4: this year is because Justin Fields, who had been developing,
Speaker 4: got a number one receiver in DJ Moore. Number one
Speaker 4: receivers make young quarterbacks better. Their catch radius is better,
Speaker 4: they get fifty to fifty balls more often. They make
Speaker 4: young quarterbacks more accurate and more confident. You saw it
Speaker 4: when Stefan Diggs joined the Bills and Josh Allen. You
Speaker 4: saw it when aj Brown joined Jalen Hurtz. We hadn't
Speaker 4: seen that with the Bears the first three weeks. We
Speaker 4: have seen in the past two weeks where Justin Fields
Speaker 4: and DJ Moore have been lights out. I think this
Speaker 4: is a really good spot. The Vikings secondary is not
Speaker 4: very good, and if they are blitzing, then that gives
Speaker 4: Justin Fields an opportunity to get DJ Moore in advantageous situations.
Speaker 1: All right, there's always a game I ask you about
Speaker 1: because I am interested. So I thought Niners minus four
Speaker 1: and a half was to play now at seven. If
Speaker 1: it's a backup quarterback against who with little prep time
Speaker 1: against this defense, this defense may not be as good
Speaker 1: in the red zone as they were a year ago.
Speaker 1: It's hard to get in the red zone. You're giving
Speaker 1: me a backup if Deshaun doesn't play. I don't care
Speaker 1: what the number is. Again, I usually fade teams in
Speaker 1: dominating wins. This team is playing after losing to Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: They're playing to go seventeen to zero. They are physically
Speaker 1: mauling teams early, backups trailing are not going to move
Speaker 1: the ball in this defense. I didn't put it in there.
Speaker 1: I could be talked into it. Where are the wise guys?
Speaker 4: Well, looks at seven, the wise guys are on in Cleveland.
Speaker 4: There's just new two ways about it. And the game
Speaker 4: was at three, I know, and the wise guys last
Speaker 4: week started betting the Niners and betting the Niners and
Speaker 4: betting the Niners.
Speaker 3: Because there was the rumor about Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 4: Seven, seven and a half eight, which it may get
Speaker 4: to because the public is just going to keep pounding
Speaker 4: the Niners until this kickoff. The wise guys are going
Speaker 4: to be in the Browns because while the Niners have
Speaker 4: a great defense, the Browns have an historically great defense.
Speaker 4: Six red zone possessions in four games so far this year.
Speaker 4: They act like they can win games by themselves. Remember
Speaker 4: the eighty five Bears, yea, Like they would get on
Speaker 4: the field, it didn't matter what their offense was, they
Speaker 4: would get on the field and you would assume, all right,
Speaker 4: the Barrels will just score two touchdowns on defense, Like
Speaker 4: that's what the Browns can do, and you are getting
Speaker 4: the Niners right now. Look, Rock Purty is seven to
Speaker 4: one to be MVP because he threw four touchdown passes
Speaker 4: against the Dallas Cowboys, and the Dallas Cowboys who did
Speaker 4: not have their best cornerback playing for them anymore. So
Speaker 4: this guy Rock Purdy looks like a brilliant, brilliant quarterback,
Speaker 4: and I think he is. But is he going to
Speaker 4: look that good against a Browns defense that is as
Speaker 4: good as they are from front to back. He's not
Speaker 4: playing the Cowboys secondary. He's playing Jim Schwartz defense that
Speaker 4: is going to be incredibly aggressive and by the way,
Speaker 4: that has dominated in scenarios like this against Kyle Shanahan.
Speaker 3: So seven's a lot, Colin.
Speaker 4: I know it's ugly, but this could be an ugly
Speaker 4: game whether it's supposed to be bad throughout the Midwest.
Speaker 3: I'm taking the.
Speaker 1: Seven and finally talk me into an ugly game, talk
Speaker 1: me into something I haven't touched. What about Houston Saints.
Speaker 3: This is an interesting game.
Speaker 4: The public has been coming in on the Texans to
Speaker 4: the point where it's been bet down to the Saints
Speaker 4: or minus one. The last guys are going to bet
Speaker 4: the Saints in this game, like they actually can't believe
Speaker 4: they're able to get the Saints at minus one.
Speaker 3: There will be regression with CJ. Shroud.
Speaker 4: You started to see a little bit of it last week.
Speaker 4: He was brilliant at the end of the game with
Speaker 4: that drive that put them ahead in the final two minutes,
Speaker 4: but throughout the game there were some moments where he
Speaker 4: made some really bad passes that should have been intercepted
Speaker 4: by a Falcons defense that is not nearly as good
Speaker 4: as the Saints, and that is one thing the Saints
Speaker 4: have been doing really well this year. I'm not a
Speaker 4: Dennis Allen fan. I don't know why anyone would hire
Speaker 4: Deniz Allen to be a head coach, but he's a
Speaker 4: very good defensive coordinator, and he's got that defense playing
Speaker 4: at a really high level right now.
Speaker 3: So I like the Saints in that game.
Speaker 4: Two games we haven't discussed that I think are pretty gross,
Speaker 4: and i'd like you to consider. Remember I'm seventeen and
Speaker 4: three the past two weeks. Colin, all right, I want
Speaker 4: you to be with me on this train. Can I
Speaker 4: interest you in the New England Patriots plus three plus
Speaker 4: three and a half against the Las Vegas Raider.
Speaker 1: Nope, not going to listen. Go to the next one.
Speaker 1: Will not listen. I'm not listening. I refuse to listen.
Speaker 1: Why listen. It's like somebody that says, trust me, you'll
Speaker 1: love Radiohead. Let's go to the concert.
Speaker 4: Can what about the What about the Tampa Bay Okay buccaneer?
Speaker 3: Yes, plus three plus three and a half against the Lions.
Speaker 1: Plus three and a half Tampa's de side. I could
Speaker 1: be talked into that because that was one of the
Speaker 1: games I have here on my list that I didn't do.
Speaker 1: Tampa plus three and a half. Detroit comes off a
Speaker 1: big win. The world loves Detroit. Carolina is really bad,
Speaker 1: and actually Tampa Bay at home is pretty good.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Baker, Look, there is some question about right
Speaker 4: now about Mike Evans because he is still a little
Speaker 4: bit injured. But a couple of things have changed for
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield. You might notice in watching these Bucks games,
Speaker 4: and I've been fading the Bucks and so like I've
Speaker 4: had to pay attention to them because my rating on
Speaker 4: them is changing a little bit. He's not making the
Speaker 4: enormous amount of Baker mistakes that he's made.
Speaker 3: In the past.
Speaker 4: Right, he seems to have learned something in his travels
Speaker 4: from Cleveland to Carolina to la Certainly Sean McVay put
Speaker 4: something in his ear that made him realize he's making
Speaker 4: the same mistakes over and over when it comes to
Speaker 4: risk taking. And I also think you naturally are better
Speaker 4: when you have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He's never
Speaker 4: had receivers like this, So I think there's a big
Speaker 4: opportunity here to buy.
Speaker 3: A little bit lower on the Bucks and sell way
Speaker 3: way way high on the lines.
Speaker 4: Like look, Jared Goff, most profitable quarterback against the spread
Speaker 4: the past five years in the NFL. But he's a
Speaker 4: much different quarterback when he's in a dome than he
Speaker 4: is on the road, and he's under five hundred against
Speaker 4: the spread on the road. People love the lines right now,
Speaker 4: they're dominating, but this is a tough spot.
Speaker 3: The volume