WEBVTT - Is there a pattern to asteroid impacts on Earth? 0:00:08.480 --> 0:00:10.479 Ay, Katie, what's the weather going to be like tomorrow? 0:00:10.520 --> 0:00:13.600 And you're part of Italy, let me check. It says 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.520 it's going to be sunny with a chance of meatballs, 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:19.560 and you believe in that, or the weather prediction is 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.840 pretty reliable over there, not really. We're kind of near 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:27.640 the Alps and that seems to scramble whatever weather radar 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:31.120 that they use, So sometimes you plan a picnic and 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:33.680 sometimes you get meat balled on. It's sure would be 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:35.560 nice if the weather was more reliable, like it was 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.760 just a pattern and it repeated, like you could sort 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:42.880 of schedule the rain at like two pm and then 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:46.080 at three o'clock you get some snow. That would be awesome. 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:48.640 Or you know, you could also just try my strategy. 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:51.360 What's that? Just moved to a place where there isn't 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.600 any weather. It's just sunny every day. So essentially you're 0:00:54.600 --> 0:01:00.319 going to move to the moon. Sometimes southern California does 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:02.440 feel like the moon? Is it because of all the 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:06.480 people just as alien? It's because of all the people 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:25.320 acting like aliens. Hi, I'm Daniel. I'm a particle physicist 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:28.760 and a professor at UC Irvine in Southern California, and 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:32.360 I definitely do appreciate the sunshine. My name is Katie. 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.920 I'm the host of Creature Feature and Animals podcast. I 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.240 live in northern Italy and I do appreciate that our 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:43.039 weather is mainly like pasta and pesto based. And I 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:45.880 know we're joking around, but is there an expression in 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:48.760 Italian that's something like a cloudy with a chance of meatballs? 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.160 Or is that a purely American thing? I think that's 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:54.840 pretty American. In fact, meatballs are not so much of 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:57.880 a thing in Italy. It's as much of the iconic 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:00.720 Italian food as it seems in the US that is 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.960 more kind of an Americanized version of Italy. So it's 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:08.040 neither on our plates nor in our weather. So there's 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.600 no like strange weather event that would make Italians say 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:14.160 it's raining meatballs, huge pieces of hail or something not 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.800 that I know of. Now, well, welcome to the podcast. 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:20.800 Daniel and Jorge explain the Universe, in which we examine 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.760 all of the crazy and amazing and surprising things that 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:27.040 the universe does. We dig into whether it all makes 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:29.359 sense and whether it can be predicted, whether we can 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:33.280 find simple scientific, mathematical stories that explain all of the 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:37.040 amazing things that the universe does, from compressing matter the 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:40.799 hearts of black holes, to whizzing corks and gluons together 0:02:40.919 --> 0:02:44.520 inside neutron stars, to causing all of the weather patterns 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.720 on Earth, to maybe even wiping out huge parts of 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:52.320 life on the planet. This sounds fun. We try to 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.920 be an uplifting podcast as usual, though we don't shy 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:59.520 away from facing the truth and from accepting our ignorance 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:02.280 of it. My friend and usual co host Orge can't 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.320 be here today, but I'm very glad to be joined 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.679 by one of our regular co host Katie. Katie, thanks 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.560 again for joining us. Yeah. Absolutely. I noticed Jorge is 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:13.720 suspiciously absent the day we're talking about asteroid impacts, and 0:03:13.760 --> 0:03:16.400 I gotta ask, does he got a secret space ship? 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:20.400 Maybe he's the one causing the asteroid impacts, you know, 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:22.800 he's the one dropping these things on the planet. Has 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.720 Jorge ever been in the same room with you as 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.239 the asteroid. No, but it does seem like sometimes he 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:31.560 does want to wipe everything out. But I love thinking 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.800 about the long history of life on Earth. You know, 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:37.960 we are curious beings. We look around ourselves here on 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.360 the planet. We wonder how do we get here? How 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:42.240 did the Earth end up to be this way and 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.360 not some other way? And one of the more fascinating 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:49.120 things about the history of life on Earth is how 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:53.760 much it hinges on certain tipping points, specific moments in history, 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:56.360 which if they had gone another way, we might not 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:59.360 be here, or we might look totally different, or we 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:02.120 might have to there's or three heads. It's fun to 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:06.360 imagine alternative earths. If you had run this experimental universe 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:09.280 many times and had different earths, what would life on 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:12.280 Earth look like at this point? Would there still be dinosaurs? 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.840 Would we all be huge intelligent ladybugs. It's fun to 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:19.080 imagine all the different varieties and what chance there was 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:21.800 for us to actually get here. I love the idea 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:25.640 of being huge intelligent ladybugs. I think we'd need a 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:28.440 lot more oxygen for that, But I think we would 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:33.240 also look much more fashionable. Do you think ladybugs, if 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:36.520 they developed intelligence and technology, would also develop clothing. I mean, 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:40.160 because they already look good naked. They already looked pretty fantastic. 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.880 But I can't imagine some sort of fashion revolution of 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:47.280 a ladybug who dares to wear stripes instead of thoughts 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:52.000 the Ladybug Fashion Podcast. Pretty controversial stuff, but it is 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:54.800 part of our job here, not just to understand what 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.159 are the basic rules of the universe. How do the 0:04:57.200 --> 0:05:00.560 tiny particles come together and we've our reality out of 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.880 little corks and gluons and electrons or whatever other particles 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:06.359 might be out there. How does the dark matter shape 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:08.839 the formation of the universe. We also like to think 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:11.599 about the formation of life here on Earth and what 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:15.440 happened to create this story, What exactly led to us 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:19.120 being here having a podcast that isn't hosted by two ladybugs. 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:21.600 I mean, in a way, we are feasting on the 0:05:21.640 --> 0:05:27.640 bones of dinosaurs because by their mass death came the 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.800 rise of mammals, and we are mammals, So we can 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.039 thank a dead dinosaur for being here, I think, in 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.560 my opinion, do you think that's like the best example 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:40.920 of inherited privilege ever? You know, It's like, we're not 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:44.279 responsible for the dinosaur's extinction directly, but we're definitely benefiting 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:46.400 from the fact that they were wiped out. Are you 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:50.920 saying that some kind of very early prehistoric shrew was 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.919 colluding with the asteroid and saying make it look like 0:05:54.960 --> 0:05:58.960 an accident It certainly does seem convenient, right, you know, 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:01.560 when we benefit from the kinds of things. Well, hopefully 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:05.040 the dinosaurs of today, that is, birds will not sue us. 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:09.240 Statute of limitations is long, long, long expired. And one 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.200 fascinating thing about the history of life on Earth is 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:15.560 that it is punctuated with these mass extinctions. It's not 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:18.239 just the asteroid that hit the Earth that probably wiped 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:22.560 out the dinosaurs that created a new flowering of mammals. 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:24.960 There many times in the history of life on Earth 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:27.880 when there were these wipeout events where a huge fraction 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:32.040 of life on Earth was killed, making room for new developments, 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:36.039 new explorations of the evolutionary tree by the remaining life. 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:38.719 And it's interesting to think about how each of these 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:42.240 contribute to us being here today. Right, If all of 0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:45.320 those hadn't gone exactly the way that they went, we 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:47.880 wouldn't be here talking about it. Maybe we wouldn't even 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:49.880 be any intelligent life on Earth. It would just be 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:52.200 a bunch of dumb dinosaurs ting on each other and 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:55.080 nibbling on plants, right, I mean, it's just hard to 0:06:55.160 --> 0:06:58.239 know where things would have been. I mean, as you said, 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:02.080 like when there is a die off of animals, there 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:05.080 is an opportunity as long as the earth is still 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:09.880 habitable for a new kind of group, a resurgence of 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:14.480 species who otherwise would not be able to really thrive 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.960 because they'd be out competed by the animals that went extinct. 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:21.360 So it's hard to imagine, you know, if dinosaurs hadn't 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.200 died off, you know, maybe there would not have been 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:28.800 evolutionary pressure for any one species to become as intelligent 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:34.000 as humans. Maybe it would have been too dangerous a 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:38.200 life for primates to have been able to come to power. 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:41.840 It's just it's so hard to know. Of course, you know, 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:45.760 we could have also just been like two dinosaurs now 0:07:45.840 --> 0:07:48.560 talking about stuff on the podcast, talking about like what 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.040 if we had gone extinct because of an asteroid? Would 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:56.120 some of those little shrews turned into weird pink things? Yea, exactly. 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.480 And I think there's something really interesting that you brought 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:01.480 up there that's not widely enough appreciated, which is the 0:08:01.520 --> 0:08:06.520 importance of randomness and opportunity in evolution. You know, some 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:10.560 people feel like evolution is this transformation where species develop 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:13.600 into more and more advanced versions of themselves. But you know, 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:16.360 there's really a randomness there, Like how does the species 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:19.240 change from generation to generation. It's from like changes in 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:23.720 the genetic code, which comes from transcription errors or cosmic rays. 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:26.720 There's no design here. It's really just like a random 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:30.160 walk through genetic space. Right, It's like throwing a bunch 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.560 of dice to see what your kids are going to be. Like, yeah, 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:36.240 I mean, so evolution doesn't have a game plan. I 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:38.839 think that's one of the most important things to understand 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:44.080 is evolution is not this like efficient force perfecting things 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:47.640 into their most like quote unquote perfect forms. It's just 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:51.960 a very simple rule. If something survives and passes on 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:55.720 its genetic information, hooray, it's survived and passed on its 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:59.120 genetic information to the next that's it. That is absolutely it. 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:05.920 And for that extremely simple rule, you get incredibly marvelous complexity. 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:07.800 So there are a lot of things that can happen. 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:11.760 It's not just the random mutation of DNA. It's the 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:15.320 reshuffling of DNA. Right, you have like mate choice, what 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:18.600 happens there, And then it's the environment, like what happens 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.560 with your environment. There can be random changes in the 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:26.480 environment that leads to selective pressures, to extinction events, two 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:32.160 changes in related species that then causes the other species 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.959 to have to evolve. So there's so many factors that 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:39.400 go into evolution that from this incredibly simple rule just 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:41.800 like if you can pass on your DNA, yeah you 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:43.520 did it. You passed on your DNA, and then the 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:47.000 next generation gets a shot at that. That has turned 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:54.760 into just this incredibly immensely complex and convoluted situation with 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:57.600 life on Earth, where sometimes an animal will have weird 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.120 features that we try to look at, we think, what 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.400 is this, what is the thing? Why did they evolve it? 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:05.880 And it just turns out it's this weird artifact of 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.400 earlier evolution or something like you know, we have this 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.200 appendix and it's kind of mysterious. What does it do. 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:13.280 We're not really sure if it has much of a 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:17.960 purpose for us. But it's not like evolution has that 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.800 foresight of like, well, I better take this appendix out 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:23.000 because they're not really going to need it that much 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:27.600 as modern humans. So like, it's not an intelligent designer. 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:30.880 It's kind of just improv all the time. I think 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:33.600 that's a really fascinating aspect of it, not just that 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.400 there's a randomness there, but that it's so tightly linked 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.960 to the environment in which this exploration is happening. Right, 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.320 It's really a reflection. It's like a mirroring of the 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.600 situation that doing the selection because one animal might survive 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:48.120 very well in one context and just die off rapidly 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.400 in another, and so the animals, the life we have 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.160 here on Earth is a reflection of the selection pressure 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:56.120 which comes from the environment in which we live, of course, right, 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.720 But that goes also backwards in time. As you say, 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:03.240 it's like it's telling story of the selection pressure over time. 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:08.240 Every species that survives has survived through changing environments. Right, 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:09.959 Things were colder and then they were hotter, and in in 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.120 order to get here, you have to manage all of 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:15.720 those changes somehow. It's your population grows and evolves and 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.400 gains hair and lose his hair and all that kind 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:20.640 of stuff. So I think it's really fascinating that not 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:24.080 only does the earth itself tell the histories you like, 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:26.800 dig down through the layers and see layers of rock 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:29.120 and events that have happened through the history, but life 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:33.160 on Earth also carries with it the history of its evolution. Right, 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.559 As you say, why do you have this vestigial bid. Oh, well, 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:37.520 we needed that millions of years ago, and we're still 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:39.440 getting rid of it due to the new pressure. So 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:41.880 I think that's super fascinating to look at the history 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:43.480 of life on Earth, And to me, that's one of 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:46.520 the most important things about science is answering this question, 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.160 like how did we get here? What is the story 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:51.640 of us? It tells us sort of how to live 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:54.440 our lives and who we are, and in some sense, 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:56.959 you know, as much as science can, it tells us 0:11:57.000 --> 0:12:00.800 why we're here at least what happened before we got here. Yeah, 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.840 And I think it's so interesting because our life spans 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:08.760 are relatively short compared to the universe, even compared to 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:14.160 our own Earth. So our perception of what is stable, right, 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:19.120 like what stable species are existence is warped by our 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.920 you know, relatively short lifespans, and so we have this 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:26.679 sense of things are as they are. Giraffes have always existed, 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:30.560 We've always existed, but that's really not the case. And 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.280 you know, when we look at some of these animals 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:35.480 that have gone extinct and we think, like, wow, how 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:40.200 could something that's strange have existed? Well, maybe hopefully if 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:44.200 we're still alive, and like a thousand years. Potentially some 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:48.640 species like the panda that's highly specialized to eat massive 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:52.040 quantities of bamboo, which makes it very vulnerable to extinction 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.120 if there's an environmental change, you know, we might look 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.040 back and say, like, how could such a silly animal 0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:01.400 have existed where it's entire diet is dependent on bamboo 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.840 and they're really bad at mating in captivity. I think 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:09.080 we have this very narrow view in our own lifespan, 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:12.040 so it is it becomes kind of fascinating when we 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:14.480 zoom out and look at the history of the planet 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:16.920 and you're like, oh, yeah, we're just like little babies, 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.079 Like we're a little baby species. Yeah. And it's hard 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:23.000 for us because we tend to think in time scales 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:28.000 of hours, minutes, years, maybe centuries to understand processes that 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.280 go on that are much much slower. You know, it 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:32.800 took us a long time to appreciate how old the 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:35.600 Earth was. The first hints we had that it might 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:38.880 be billions of years old blew people's minds because it 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.480 was just such a strange concept. Understanding geological processes like 0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:46.160 the formations of the continents and like glaciation work hard 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:48.720 for people because we don't tend to think in sort 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.400 of deep time, and yet we know that these processes 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.520 really do shape and influence the nature of the world 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.240 in which we live. And maybe most interesting and most 0:13:57.320 --> 0:14:00.800 dramatic are the cataclysmic events, right is where if the 0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:03.840 asteroid it hits somewhere different, maybe the dinosaurs wouldn't have 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.320 wiped out. Or if dinosaur scientists had looked up in 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.679 the sky and seen it coming and developed technology too diverted, 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:12.520 you know, then maybe things really would be different. I 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.280 love those moments when history could really take lots of 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:19.920 different courses. Yeah, dinosaur Matt Damon and a dinosaur Jennifer 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.440 Lawrence trying to figure things out. I wonder if the 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:24.800 dinosaur version of that movie would have been any better. Yeah, 0:14:24.800 --> 0:14:27.440 I mean it is that. I do think about those 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.600 cataclysmic events quite a bit, you know, just the our 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:33.840 vulnerability of you know, as a single human, were relatively 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:37.360 vulnerable in our little fleshy bodies, but then our planet 0:14:37.400 --> 0:14:41.840 also feels somewhat vulnerable just this like little paradise of 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:46.040 being able to be alive on it in a pretty 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:51.160 unforgiving universe. And then just that rock just traveling along 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:55.520 randomly could just you know, spell the end for an 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:59.160 entire planet of species. It's somewhat terrifying right to know 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.600 that these rocks are out there, and if one of 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:03.600 them falls into the gravity well of the Earth, it 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.920 could end all life on Earth, or some lives on Earth. 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.840 It certainly would not be a good day. And as 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.960 we saw in the nineties, these kind of things do happen, 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:15.920 like comic Shoemaker Levy, which came into the Solar System 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:20.760 smashed into Jupiter, creating fireballs bigger than planet Earth. So 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.160 this is not only something that happens than the deep 0:15:23.240 --> 0:15:25.760 history of time, it's something that could happen. We don't 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:29.400 know when NASA is doing its best to track these asteroids, 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.440 but beyond that, we wonder, like, is it possible to 0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.960 predict these events far in the future. Is there some 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.720 sort of like deep time process sort of like glaciation 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:42.880 or like formations of the continents which we can't yet 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:45.680 imagine because it happens on a galactic scale, which is 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:50.080 shaping these asteroid impacts, which is maybe creating patterns that 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:53.120 we could understand, which we could use to predict, so 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:55.280 we could know. Guys, we only got a million more 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.680 years before the next wave of killer asteroids. Better start 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.640 funding those spaceships. Yeah, I mean I'd like to know 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:05.400 because if an asteroid's coming in like the next year, 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:09.120 I know I can skip a dentist appointment. So don't 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:13.600 bother saving for retirement, folks. So on today's episode, we'll 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:21.840 be asking the question is there a pattern to major 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:26.280 asteroid impacts on Earth? And is it gonna benefit us 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:30.040 to know this or just make us scared? You can 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.520 short the stock market because you know all life on 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.640 Earth is going so put everything in gold, folks. This 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:40.480 is now a financial investment podcast. I believe that's illegal. 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.520 But also if the asteroid is made out of gold, 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:46.200 maybe you shouldn't invest in it because then we will 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:50.240 be inundated with gold and then also extremely dead. That's 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:53.760 not actual financial advice. Don't sue me. So you're saying 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.840 that when we're wiped out and the Ladybug civilization rises 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:58.920 up in our ashes, they're going to find so much 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:01.480 gold everywhere. It's just gonna be like they're paving their 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:05.200 streets in gold. Yeah, they're building their little Ladybug toilets 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:07.800 out of gold. So what is Ladybug Donald Trump then 0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:13.000 going to do to make his bathroom extra bling well 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.480 as usual. I was wondering if people out there had 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.480 thought about if there was a pattern to major asteroid 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:20.439 impacts and if there was something we could do to 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:24.000 predict it. So thanks very much to everybody who participates 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.960 in these off the cuff answers on the virtual street. 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:30.280 If you would like to play this role for future episodes, 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.879 please don't be shy right to me. Two questions at 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:35.240 Daniel and Jorge dot com. So think about it for 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:37.720 a moment before you hear these answers. Do you think 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:41.200 there's a pattern to major asteroid impacts on Earth? Here's 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:43.680 what some listeners had to say. I think I heard 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:46.600 once it's like every thirty million years or something like that, 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:50.240 there's this massive asteroid that crashes into Earth and basically 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:52.000 wipes off all of the life on it. But I 0:17:52.000 --> 0:17:54.400 don't really know. I don't think there's like any sort 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.520 of pattern to the distribution of asteroids. Those pods will 0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:00.919 collide with Earth at some point in the post island, 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:04.080 so I don't think that there's a pattern of asteroid impacts. 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:07.280 It's orbital mechanics. Anything more than two bodies is pretty 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:09.679 chaotic and random, but I do think that there is 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:13.520 a governing frequency that decreases over time, so as our 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.879 Earth and Solar system get older, um impacts become less frequent. 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:20.560 I think you get some patterns with asteroids, because wouldn't 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:24.240 you get kind of like a cyclic almost resonant wave 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:26.200 function if you spend things up on a macro scale, 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.520 just since everything is orbiting, you could kind of mathematically 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.760 predict when it might fling stuff in our direction. I 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:36.399 don't know, well, hopefully if it's a pattern, it will 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:43.600 show us that no major asteroid will either art in 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:49.080 the future or until we are able to defend ourselves 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:55.359 properly to define them, because probably this is the most 0:18:55.400 --> 0:19:01.600 difficult thing to just to see them in time for 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:06.560 us to prepare to do something about it. I really 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:09.800 do agree with the person who says that they hope 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:13.200 that no asteroid hits Earth until we're ready to defend ourselves, 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:15.760 because I feel like if we just learn like in 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:17.840 a hundred years we're going to get a big one, 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:21.200 but we have no way to do anything about it, 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.040 that would be a bit of a bomber. I'll be 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.040 honest with you, what do you mean we have no 0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:27.080 way to do anything about it. You have no faith 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.520 in physicists and engineers to save the planet. It depends 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:34.040 on how fast you guys are at writing grant proposals. 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.800 I guess. So, if we've got an asteroid coming in 0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:38.719 a hundred years, maybe you can do it. But if 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.000 it's like five weeks, do you think we could do 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:43.760 something about it? You know, the key really is to 0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:47.280 discovering these things early on. If you see far in 0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:49.880 advance that it's coming, that it only needs a little 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:52.840 bit of a push to not hit the Earth. It's 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.320 sort of like if somebody's firing a sniper shot from 0:19:55.359 --> 0:19:59.680 five miles away, the tiniest little deviation in the direction 0:19:59.760 --> 0:20:02.240 of their rifle means they're going to miss their target. 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.119 And so if you can figure out that this thing 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:06.840 is going to come in a hundred years, then even 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:09.640 the faintest little push, you could throw a rock at it, 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:11.800 or is that it with a laser, and they would 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:14.480 miss the Earth. You only have a few weeks of notice. 0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:16.840 Then it's much much harder. You have to give it 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.880 a much bigger push. But actually, you know, this week, 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:23.360 as we record this episode, NASA is doing an amazing 0:20:23.480 --> 0:20:26.800 test the dart probe is out there and it's about 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:29.719 to push on an asteroid to see if this works. 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:32.679 Can we actually find an asteroid and push on it 0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:35.520 and see if we can change its direction. This is 0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:38.000 not one that NASA thinks is going to hit the Earth. 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:40.400 This is just an experiment to see is it possible 0:20:40.440 --> 0:20:43.280 to change its trajectory. Also, fortunately it's not one that 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:45.720 NASA thinks is going to hit the Earth after they 0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:48.919 change its traject Right. I was about to say, I 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:52.760 really hope they double checked their math and their units, 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.640 because that would be a heck of all whoop. See 0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:59.280 that is actually something people worry about developing these tools 0:20:59.520 --> 0:21:01.840 that can affect the future of the human race. Like 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:05.040 if you can now aim asteroids, then you know some 0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:09.119 super billain might decide to use that to threaten Earth 0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:12.639 with asteroids. Right. Another direction people are working on is 0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:15.919 zapping these things with lasers. That sounds like science fiction, 0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:18.280 but you can get a powerful enough laser and zap 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:21.119 one side of the asteroid, then you can like vaporize 0:21:21.119 --> 0:21:22.840 some of the rock and the ice and it can 0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:25.199 give it a sideways push so that it doesn't hit 0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:27.360 the Earth. There, people in Santa Barbara working on these 0:21:27.440 --> 0:21:30.239 kind of super lasers. But also that does make me 0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:34.720 worry about you know, like other applications of supers well, 0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:37.800 like you're not firing this laser from Earth right because 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:41.240 I would imagine you'd scorch a few birds and maybe 0:21:41.280 --> 0:21:43.479 a few planes if you did that. I don't think 0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:45.400 they even have a prototype of this laser so far. 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.320 It's still in the exploratory studies. But there are a 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:50.640 range of solutions, and we actually have a whole podcast 0:21:50.680 --> 0:21:55.119 episode about how to defend the Earth from asteroids, including 0:21:55.200 --> 0:21:58.800 gravity tractors and laser beams and giving them a push. 0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:01.119 It all depends on what the thing is made out of, 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:03.119 Like if it's a pile of rubble, it's kind of 0:22:03.119 --> 0:22:04.560 hard to give it a push, or if it's a 0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:06.520 big ball of ice, it's good to zap it with 0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:09.960