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Speaker 1: Hello, then happy Wednesday. As I promised you three day

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Speaker 1: three straight days of episode drops, and yes, it means

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Speaker 1: that your queue is going to keep filling up. And

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Speaker 1: I know some of you play catch up in that.

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Speaker 1: We are all for that, but just a time stamp here,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is for September third, on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: And where it is. As I sort of teased out.

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Speaker 1: In my opening yesterday that while we were talking about

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Speaker 1: sort of where's the future of the Republican Party, is

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Speaker 1: there any any future for the non Trump Republicans that

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Speaker 1: are still left. If so, their opportunity to take a

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Speaker 1: stand is going to be thrust upon them, right, It's

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Speaker 1: going to be thrust upon them with tariffs, potentially with

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Speaker 1: a vote in order to become legally compliant. Assuming that

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Speaker 1: all these court losses happen, Are we going to see

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Speaker 1: the business wing of the Republican Party flex its muscle again,

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Speaker 1: the sort of the low touch, low less small government

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Speaker 1: wing of the party on this front again, Is that

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Speaker 1: going to happen? That's a moment to watch there. The

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Speaker 1: second is potentially all things having to do with the

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Speaker 1: war against the CDC.

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Speaker 2: That Robert F.

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Speaker 1: Kennedy Junior has launched this is not the world that

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Speaker 1: many of those Republican centaters. So we're trying to figure out, right,

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Speaker 1: if that wings, if that wing is dormant, right, are

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Speaker 1: they animated? Is there any life left? And my contention

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Speaker 1: is in the next sixty days we're going to learn

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Speaker 1: And I know some of you have already said I'm

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Speaker 1: being naive. They're already dead, They're already compliant, And you know,

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Speaker 1: we'll see, right, I find something fascinating. There's going to

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Speaker 1: be a lot of a lot of retiring senators who

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Speaker 1: are not going to be seeking re election in twenty

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Speaker 1: six who may feel the freedom to say what they believe.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: We have a Tom Tillis has already decided he's going

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Speaker 1: to play that role. Jony Ernst may That'll be interesting

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Speaker 1: to see whether she's somebody that goes decides to take

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Speaker 1: a stand every now and then against Trump that maybe

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Speaker 1: she thinks is better for Iowa. And we've seen it

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Speaker 1: a little bit with Mitch McConnell, and of course we're

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Speaker 1: waiting to see what does Bill Cassidy do on that front.

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Speaker 1: But today, as I hinted at yesterday, I wanted to

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Speaker 1: focus on a dilemma the Democrats are going to have

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Speaker 1: to deal with over the next thirty days. And that

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Speaker 1: is and it may be this may be something that

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Speaker 1: happens in sixty days, It could be something that happens

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Speaker 1: in ninety days. But do the Democrats want to force

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Speaker 1: a shutdown showdown with Donald Trump and congressional Republicans? And

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Speaker 1: it's the subject of my substack. Some of you may

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Speaker 1: have already read my piece and already know the arguments

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna you know, I sort of lay out is

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Speaker 1: this is a risk in either direction. And I think

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Speaker 1: that's largely why I have a feeling that the Democrats

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Speaker 1: are more likely to be comfortable being blamed for a

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Speaker 1: shutdown in a confrontation with Donald Trump this time, and

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Speaker 1: why it's different than the decision that was made in

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Speaker 1: March not to do this and March backing off a

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Speaker 1: shutdown threat. You know, Schumer sort of opened the door

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Speaker 1: to it and then quickly backed off. You know, opening

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Speaker 1: the door and backing off was a that looked weak, right,

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Speaker 1: So it was messaged terribly, but tactically it was it

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Speaker 1: was the right call.

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Speaker 2: At that moment.

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Speaker 1: There wasn't There's still a chunk of the country that

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Speaker 1: this was still a brand new presidency. Yes, it's the

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Speaker 1: second term, but it was still, as far as they

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Speaker 1: were concerned, brand new. Give him some running room, you know,

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Speaker 1: give him a chance to break things. Don't tell us

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Speaker 1: he's going to you know, the way we are as

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Speaker 1: an electric we have to. Once it happens, then we'll react. Well,

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Speaker 1: here we are nine months later, and things are broken.

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Speaker 2: Right. The CDC has been broken. It's exactly what many

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Speaker 2: people warned what happen. But it's been broken.

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Speaker 1: Certainly, Foreign aid has been broken, and that is another

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Speaker 1: thing that was of concern. And then there's all sorts

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Speaker 1: of our energy and dependence is being threatened with these

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Speaker 1: sort of willy nilly pullbacks on not wanting to diversify

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Speaker 1: our energy. I don't get it. Why don't we want

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Speaker 1: in all of the above energy policy win, solar, nuclear,

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels, right, I don't get it. So this idea

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Speaker 1: of only doing fossil fuels or fossil fuels a nuclear

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Speaker 1: but not the other stuff, it just doesn't It's just

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Speaker 1: a bad business decision right on that front. So the

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Speaker 1: point is is that there's a whole you know, it's

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Speaker 1: been eight or nine months and there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: things broken. The other thing is, can the Democrats trust

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Speaker 1: the Republicans to cut a spending deal and abide by it,

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Speaker 1: or is Donald Trump going to decide he is unilateral

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Speaker 1: control over how to spend money, regardless of how Congress

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Speaker 1: appropriated it, and he will just spend money the way

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Speaker 1: he decides. Or I'm going to pull funding for a

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Speaker 1: program I don't care if Congress pass and appropriation to

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Speaker 1: fund Program X, I'm pulling it because I want to.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to divert those resources over here, which I

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Speaker 1: think deserves more money, despite Congress's decision not to fund

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Speaker 1: Program CX with more money. This is this argument called recisions,

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Speaker 1: and different versions of it are like that. So I

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Speaker 1: certainly think that Donald Trump has created the conditions where

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Speaker 1: there's no incentive for Democrats to come to the table.

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Speaker 2: And that's sort of the situation we're in. Right.

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Speaker 1: Republicans have enough control of Congress that they're in charge,

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Speaker 1: but they you know, when it comes to opening or

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Speaker 1: closing the government, they need they still need some Democratic

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Speaker 1: votes to avoid the filibuster. So they're going to need

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Speaker 1: some Democratic votes. And I have a feeling John Fetterman's

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Speaker 1: line hasn't changed. So this isn't going to be politically easy.

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Speaker 1: And if you do engage in a shutdown, you got

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Speaker 1: to know what you're doing, and you've got to engage

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Speaker 1: for a purpose, right, And it doesn't always work, and

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Speaker 1: you can lose the battle and win the war. So

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Speaker 1: let's look back at a shutdown that took place at

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Speaker 1: a similar time period. October twenty thirteen. Ted Cruz and

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Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus essentially orchestrated a shutdown against you know,

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Speaker 1: over in theoryos over the launch of Obamacare. Right, yeah,

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Speaker 1: the ironically, you know, had had Cruise kept his powder

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Speaker 1: dry and they've not done it. The focus of that

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Speaker 1: October wouldn't have been the government shutdown, but would have

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Speaker 1: been the failure to launch of the infamous Obamacare website

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Speaker 1: that didn't work on day one. But because of the shutdown,

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Speaker 1: it sort of overshadowed things and politically, Republicans paid huge

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Speaker 1: short term price. It cost them the Virginia governor's race.

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Speaker 1: It took place in October twenty thirteen. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: been this pattern that the party that wins the White

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Speaker 1: House loses that next Virginia governor's race. It's almost like clockwork,

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Speaker 1: and it's happened every single time, I think, pretty much

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Speaker 1: in my lifetime, with the exception of twenty thirteen when

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Speaker 1: Terry mccauliffe was able to win very narrowly over Republican

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Speaker 1: Ken Kuchinelli. And you know he won by three points,

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Speaker 1: and I promise you it was the government shutdown that

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Speaker 1: did it. Without the government shutdown, it becomes more about

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Speaker 1: the national climate, and it becomes less about and federal

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Speaker 1: workers aren't as engaged back then. And when federal workers

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Speaker 1: were not engaged, who lived in the state of Virginia

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Speaker 1: that usually was more helpful to the Republican side. The

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Speaker 1: minute the shutdown happened, it engaged voters even more so

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Speaker 1: in Northern Virginia. And the rest is history. In fact,

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Speaker 1: it's why so many of US political analysts are very

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Speaker 1: skeptical of win some earl Sars' chances to win nothing

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Speaker 1: she's done right. You know, we can nitpick whether her

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Speaker 1: candidacy could do the Doge cuts right. The willy nilly

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Speaker 1: way that the Trump administration has cut the federal government

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Speaker 1: has impacted actual human beings. Registered voters in Arlington, Fairfax, Alexandria,

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Speaker 1: Northern Virginia and they're not going to be voted. You know,

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Speaker 1: they may like they may some of them may vote

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Speaker 1: for Glenn Youngkin and liked him, but right now they're

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Speaker 1: pretty mad at the Republican Party. So that's going to

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Speaker 1: be a pretty tough obstacle. Once when the federal government

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Speaker 1: workers are engaged in off your elections. In Virginia, that's

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Speaker 1: when Democrats do better than better than the average. Twenty

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Speaker 1: seventeen is another example of this for them.

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Speaker 2: Right the.

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Speaker 1: Northern Virginia suburbs were on fire over Trump and it

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Speaker 1: led to one of the largest victories in the modern

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Speaker 1: era in Virginia for a general election, at least on

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Speaker 1: the Democratic side, was one of the Democrats' bigger victories.

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Speaker 1: Republicans actually had a bigger victory O nine.

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Speaker 2: So it doesn't come without risk.

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Speaker 1: And usually the party that forces a shutdown does get

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Speaker 1: the blame in the polls. But while the nineties shutdowns

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Speaker 1: probably re elected Bill Clinton, it didn't cost Republicans Congress.

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Speaker 1: It certainly defined the Republican Party as obstructionists, and that

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Speaker 1: was that did feed into the larger message Bill Clinton

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Speaker 1: was running on, and it helped that the Congressional one

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Speaker 1: of the leading one of the congressional leaders Bob bole

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Speaker 1: was on was his political opponent. Right, it was easier

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Speaker 1: to washingtonize that campaign, but it didn't cost him Congress.

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Speaker 1: And I do think that these things are short term

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Speaker 1: bad for the party, but their long term it depends

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Speaker 1: on why did you shut it down? Did you shut

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Speaker 1: it down for an idea, for a reason, So I

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Speaker 1: asked you, I go back to my Ted, the Ted.

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Speaker 2: Cruz example here. So it was a political loser.

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Speaker 1: In twenty thirteen, one hundred percent cost them the Virginia

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Speaker 1: governor's rates. Chris Christie still won re election that year

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Speaker 1: by a near landslide. Now Democrats were barely engage in

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Speaker 1: that race. There was almost a detent right. Corey Booker

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Speaker 1: was also running for a special election for the Senate

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Speaker 1: that year, and Republicans didn't really recruit a serious candidate

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Speaker 1: against him. It was almost as if Christy and Booker

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Speaker 1: had a wink at a nod with each other, right

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Speaker 1: they were. They were the toughest foes that either one

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Speaker 1: of them could face, so they weren't going to run

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Speaker 1: against each other. But in twenty fourteen, Republicans won the Senate.

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Speaker 1: That's how politically damaging That shutdown was for them, you

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Speaker 1: see where I'm going, because they they did believe they

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Speaker 1: were shutting it down for a purpose, right, and their

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Speaker 1: base loved the fight. Now, eventually the base got frustrated

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Speaker 1: that congressional leaders wouldn't fight anymore, and they ended up

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Speaker 1: turning to any old grifter that would tell them, Hey,

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Speaker 1: I'll fight, And it was Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: And that to me is actually the risk of not fighting. Right.

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Speaker 1: If Chuck Schumer, King Jefferies choose not to have a

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Speaker 1: confrontational approach now with Donald Trump over the budget going

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Speaker 1: into next year, defending your priors, then why did you

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Speaker 1: run in the first place?

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Speaker 2: Right, And you have a very.

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Speaker 1: You know, look, as I've said, I think the most

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Speaker 1: difficult challenge here, for the biggest challenge in becoming president

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Speaker 1: is in order to win a primary, you've got to

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Speaker 1: prove to the base you'll be a fighter. And in

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Speaker 1: order to win a general election, you've got to prove

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Speaker 1: to the to the swing voter that you're going to

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Speaker 1: be a uniter, right, a patriot over that you will

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Speaker 1: you know, I say there's sort of three groups of

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Speaker 1: voters here. Your base wants you to be a fighter.

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Speaker 1: You have these sort of you do have true middle

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Speaker 1: of the voters who just want to be a uniter

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Speaker 1: and you want independence, and then you have independences who

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Speaker 1: are looking for somebody who's willing to buck their party

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Speaker 1: every once in a while. Right, So it's three distinct

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Speaker 1: sort of things you've got to be when it says,

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Speaker 1: as a politician, got to be all things to all

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Speaker 1: people in any given moment. Right, the successful, the people

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Speaker 1: that have won the presidency have convinced their base that

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Speaker 1: they'll fight for them on the stuff that matters to them.

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Speaker 1: Have convinced independence that when the chips are down, they

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Speaker 1: will put the country first. And they've convinced the middle

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Speaker 1: of the road voter that when they when they can,

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Speaker 1: they're going to be a united And that is the

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Speaker 1: successful recipe, right, Bill Clinton's recipe, it was George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush's recipe, it was Barack Obama's recipe. I could even

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Speaker 1: argue kind of sort of Trump tried, tried, He didn't really,

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Speaker 1: he didn't really try to do that, right, He never

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Speaker 1: really had much of a message for the for that

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Speaker 1: true sort of centrist voter. Arguably, the independence bought the

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Speaker 1: idea that he was willing to disrupt things, right, and

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Speaker 1: being a.

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Speaker 2: Disruptor sort of took took that took that place there.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 1: If the Democrats sort of roll over on this one

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Speaker 1: and essentially enable a budget that allows Trump to continue

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Speaker 1: to attack their party's priorities, stuff they've worked hard on,

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Speaker 1: then don't be surprised if there is an anti incumbent

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Speaker 1: mood and a burn the establishment mentality, because eventually that's

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Speaker 1: what happened with Republicans. You know, there's been a lot

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Speaker 1: of conversations about the Freedom Caucus is you know, hey,

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Speaker 1: well the Freedom Caucus won, so there's no need for

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Speaker 1: one right now. The Freedom Caucus mindset is in charge.

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Speaker 1: Right they were. The Freedom Caucus was a group of

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Speaker 1: people who were joined so they could send them signal

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Speaker 1: they were anti establishment. Well, the anti establishment wing of

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Speaker 1: the of the GOP is now the establishment.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Bobby Kennedy Junior was anti establishment. He's now the establishment.

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Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth was anti establishment. He's now the establishment. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump was anti establishment, He's now the establishment. Mike Johnson

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Speaker 1: John Thune chose to move from one establishment to the other.

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Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham, right, he is shifted from one to the other.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 1: It is it is you know they want, which is

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Speaker 1: also why they have all sorts of they don't know

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Speaker 1: what to do now because there's they're not there to

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Speaker 1: challenge the establishment. They are there to support the establishment,

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Speaker 1: which is why Trump's always able to shut down any

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Speaker 1: sort of fire that emanates from whatever is left of

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Speaker 1: this of this thing called the Freedom Caucus. Well, that's

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Speaker 1: what the You know right now, you have a very

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Speaker 1: rambunctious base of the Democratic Party. They're angry, they're for

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Speaker 1: a variety of reasons, and for obvious reasons, and not

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Speaker 1: fighting I think puts the leadership more at risk. You

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Speaker 1: put more incumbent Democrats at risk. Now, look, you can't

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Speaker 1: just shut down to the government because I don't like

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. You got to have a reason, right. Are

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Speaker 1: you going to do it because they haven't had a

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Speaker 1: vote on tariff policy and that they need to have

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Speaker 1: a vote on tariff policy?

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Speaker 2: Are you going to do it.

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Speaker 1: And make one of your criteria for getting to the

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Speaker 1: negotiating table is putting Obamacare subsidies back on the table

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Speaker 1: before they expire at the end of this calendar year.

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Speaker 1: Are you going to do it to get science back

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Speaker 1: into the CDC and the HHS. So the point is

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Speaker 1: is that I do think if they do engage in this,

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Speaker 1: and I think the politics are lining up where it's more.

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Speaker 2: Likely than not.

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Speaker 1: This is one of those I used to use an

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Speaker 1: expression called get caught trying. You know, voters are aware

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Speaker 1: of how hard it is to make change a lot

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Speaker 1: of times they'll reward a politician for at least trying

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Speaker 1: to make change. So in this case, I call it

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Speaker 1: get caught fighting right. Why is Gavin Newsom suddenly getting

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Speaker 1: a second look by people who would normally not give

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Speaker 1: him a second look in the Democratic Party because he's

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Speaker 1: gotten caught fighting right, And it's like, okay, and they're

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Speaker 1: just looking for anybody somebody to fight And to me,

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Speaker 1: watching the base rally around and essentially throw away what

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Speaker 1: I think is a great principle to hill worth dying on,

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Speaker 1: and they're not doing it, and I fundamentally believe it's

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Speaker 1: a long term mistake. But I politically understand why, you know,

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Speaker 1: because as a friend of mine said, well, what's your alternative?

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Speaker 1: And you know, if you don't engage in the redistricting wars,

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Speaker 1: what do you do? And other than my answer being

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Speaker 1: run a freaking campaign in the state of Texas, in

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida, instead of disenfranchising voters in the

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Speaker 1: states you already run, which I think again it's a

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Speaker 1: terrible principle. However, Newsom's gotten caught fighting, which is something

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Speaker 1: the base is looking for. And I could make a

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Speaker 1: very cynical argument that the folks who won't like this

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Speaker 1: and don't like this type of politics aren't the ones

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Speaker 1: paying attention at the moment. In fact, they're the folks

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Speaker 1: that are tuning out. They will tune in closer to

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Speaker 1: the election, and you do need to have a message

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Speaker 1: for them to reassure them that you don't want to

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Speaker 1: just light fires all the time. All right, this is

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Speaker 1: an exhausted middle I count myself among them that you're

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Speaker 1: just tired of everything having to be a culture war,

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Speaker 1: everything having to be a fight. You know that we're

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Speaker 1: going to have a fight over a jenes at right,

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Speaker 1: it is. It's not that people don't make fair points

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Speaker 1: about controversy, acts or the cracker barrel bonkers ness or

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Speaker 1: whatever it is.

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Speaker 2: It's sad. Really, do we have to insert politics into everything? Really?

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Speaker 1: You know, we can we do anything that is this

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Speaker 1: sort of sort of normal zeitgeisty without having without having

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Speaker 1: a virtue signal left or right. Not everything should be

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Speaker 1: seen as a virtue signal. Most people live their lives

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Speaker 1: just to just to get by, not to virtue signal.

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Speaker 2: To the left and right. However, I think those folks

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Speaker 2: have tuned out in the moment. Right.

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Speaker 1: It's it's essentially what the right has done, right. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and the right have written off the middle. They've

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Speaker 1: decided that, you know, catering to the middle didn't work.

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Speaker 1: Catering to the middle gave them Mitt Romney and John McCain,

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Speaker 1: and they got rejected. So they're not going to do

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Speaker 1: that anymore, or at least for a time being. And

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Speaker 1: so far doing this strong and wrong basically messaging thing

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Speaker 1: has worked for them as far as accumulating power. Now,

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Speaker 1: I don't think the country's better off. I think we're

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Speaker 1: worse off. I think it's pretty clearer in so many

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Speaker 1: ways we are, we are headed, we are literally going backwards.

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Speaker 1: But politically this has been extraordinarily successful for the right.

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Speaker 1: Arguably that this far right, and this was a far

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Speaker 1: right movement for a long time, they've never had this

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Speaker 1: much power. The nationalist movement haven't had this much power

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Speaker 1: in nearly one hundred years, and this is globally right.

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Speaker 2: We're seeing this.

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Speaker 1: So when you start to weigh the pros and cons

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Speaker 1: do you confront So it is politically risky, and yet

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Speaker 1: it's also the start.

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Speaker 2: Of the midterm campaign.

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Speaker 1: And if you can't figure out what your message is

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Speaker 1: going to be for the midterms to make the case

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Speaker 1: for why Democrats should have control of Congress, you should

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Speaker 1: already be able to make that argument in September and

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Speaker 1: October of this fall. And if you're not ready to

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Speaker 1: engage in that argument now, well you don't, then you're

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Speaker 1: not prepared for the midterms anyway. So in some ways

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Speaker 1: it's a way to start, and look, is it possible

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Speaker 1: we don't reopen parts of the government for months because

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Speaker 1: the tolerance level the Republicans have for this is quite high,

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Speaker 1: and because we have insulated so many essential parts of

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Speaker 1: the government that they're immune from a shutdown, including social

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Speaker 1: Security pain things like that, So the actual risk to

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Speaker 1: people is minimal ish. It's you know, it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a pain for some people that engage with government

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Speaker 1: a lot. It's going to be a nuisance and those things,

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Speaker 1: but it's potentially an opportunity for Democrats to articulate why

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Speaker 1: they should have power again. And this is what I

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Speaker 1: would argue is the proper time to do it right

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Speaker 1: March for sixty days. That wasn't the right time. The

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Speaker 1: country wasn't ready for it. But we're pretty polarized anyway,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think if you told me a shutdown,

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Speaker 1: I think it's most likely to end in a political

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Speaker 1: stalemate right where everybody will be in their corners on

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Speaker 1: this one.

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Speaker 2: The question is.

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Speaker 1: Have you has it is the conversation about process or

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Speaker 1: is the conversation about specific issues, including attacks on consumer

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Speaker 1: goods aka the tariffs, access to life saving medications aka

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Speaker 1: HHS and CDC, and dealing with an authoritarian tyrant in Putin.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's the reason to shut down, but

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Speaker 1: the other two. Because you're as long as your motivation

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Speaker 1: is about helping everyday Americans navigate their life, make their

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Speaker 1: life a little bit easier, whether it's on the cost

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Speaker 1: of things or on their health, well the voter might

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Speaker 1: reward you for that. If you're doing a government shutdown

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Speaker 1: because you don't like how the appropriations process has been

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Speaker 1: handled by the leadership of the Republican Party. It's not

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Speaker 1: a reason to shut down the government, and good luck

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Speaker 1: trying to explain that to the average vote. So you

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Speaker 1: got to know why you're doing it, and the why

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Speaker 1: better have direct impact on every days. But I can

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Speaker 1: tell you this, I think it's more likely than not

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Speaker 1: that we're going to have a shutdown, and that it

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Speaker 1: could be a long one if we do, because I

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Speaker 1: do think there are parts of the Republican Party that.

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Speaker 2: Don't care, but there will be some that do.

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Speaker 1: And if you get and by the way, it's a

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Speaker 1: pretty big win for a lot of Americans if you

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Speaker 1: get the Obamacare subsidies back. So it's arguably a hillworth

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Speaker 1: dying on, all right. So with that, let me by

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Speaker 1: the way, I'm not advocating a shutdown personally. I wish

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump wanted to govern across the board.

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Speaker 2: I wish he would. He hasn't brought in Schumer Jeffries

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Speaker 2: to have a negotiation. He doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He's not interested in treating the legislative branch as an

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Speaker 1: equal branch. So in some ways he's sort of forcing

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Speaker 1: the only way you can get his attention is to

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Speaker 1: have this constitutional showdown. But Donald Trump can end this

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Speaker 1: tomorrow by actually inviting congressional leadership over congressional democratic leadership

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Speaker 1: and having a conversation, talking to you.

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Speaker 2: Know, maybe doing a little give and take.

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Speaker 1: It's literally what every other American president has done except

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Speaker 1: this one. Let me do my top five because it's

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Speaker 1: an excuse to lean into some new cheeky music.

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Speaker 2: Jest Top five, top top jestop.

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Speaker 1: All right, last week I gave you my top five

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Speaker 1: and the presidential sit Today, I'm gonna give you two

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Speaker 1: top five lists. It was so popular, Why do one

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Speaker 1: when I can do two? And because the theme has

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Speaker 1: been over the weekend, this is we're going to start

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Speaker 1: to see I think Senate races have have come into focus.

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Speaker 1: So I've got two top five lists. The top five

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Speaker 1: most like target list for the Democrats most likely Republican

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Speaker 1: held Senate seats that they can flip in twenty six

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Speaker 1: and then I'm going to give you the five most

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Speaker 1: likely Senate seats that Republicans could flip if the environment

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Speaker 1: shifts in their direction. But let's assume we have this

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Speaker 1: d leaning environment going into the mid terms, meaning Democrats

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Speaker 1: sort of party out of power, has sort of a

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Speaker 1: natural three to five point edge as far as sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, out there overperforming whatever the median is

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Speaker 1: at The medium right now is sort of a plus

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Speaker 1: one plus two Republican environment, which is what the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four electorate was.

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Speaker 2: Right, you're max electorate.

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Speaker 1: This midterm elector, it's likely to be you know, if

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Speaker 1: you were Trump voters show up, they'll be it'll be

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Speaker 1: you know, a leaning Democrat. So my top five pick

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Speaker 1: up opportunities for them. Number one is North Carolina open seat.

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Speaker 1: Open seats always get always are a little bit higher

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Speaker 1: in my list than they would be if there were

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Speaker 1: an incumbent, no matter who the incumbent is, So North

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Speaker 1: Carolina easily their best pickup opportunity. They've got the former governor,

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00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: he's ideologically fits, the state has navigated all the social

436
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: culture wars in the past, has had some success. It's

437
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 1: one of those Democrats can't win this Senate seat under

438
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 1: these circumstances. Maybe there's a hard lid on the ability

439
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: to win Senate races in North Carolina. And I think

440
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: the Republicans, well, they're not going to have a nasty primary,

441
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: which is good news for them, and end up with

442
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 1: a really problematic candidate like that Mark Robinson that they

443
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 1: got in the last governor's race. I still think they're

444
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 1: probably going to be further being seen as further from

445
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: the center. North Carolina is a state that is just polarized.

446
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 1: It's a pretty evenly divided state, but there's not a

447
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: huge middle crown. So I do think Democrats have a

448
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: better shot at winning in a midterm than they do

449
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: in a presidential election year. Number two on the list,

450
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: so number one is North Carolina, Number two is Maine.

451
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: I think with you've got you're going to have multiple

452
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: good candidates. Whether it's I think the I am a

453
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: win in doubt, if you have two strong candidates, give

454
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: me the one who's more of an outsider than closer

455
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: to the establishment. And while I still think if Governor

456
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: Mills does jump into this race, it it certainly, it

457
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: certainly puts in a very formidable political figure going up

458
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 1: against Susan Collins. But there's an argument to be made

459
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: by rallying around the oyster farmer makes Susan Collins front

460
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: and center. When you have a governor ver basically a

461
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: sitting governor against a sitting senator, you actually the governor

462
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: loses an opportunity to to sort of be anti establishment,

463
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 1: you know, be outsider. Yes, a governor's not serving in Washington,

464
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 1: but it is, it just lessens.

465
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 2: It it is. And in fact, we've seen sitting governors

466
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 2: don't always do well in these races. A sitting governor

467
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 2: of North Carolina challenged Jesse Helms and lost. A sitting

468
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: governor of Maryland just lost a Senate race in twenty

469
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 2: twenty four. A sitting governor in Massachusetts lost to John

470
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 2: Kerry back in nineteen ninety six. So I am not

471
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: going to tell you I'm I know for sure Mills

472
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 2: is a stronger candidate than our friend the oyster farmer.

473
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 2: But either way, I think Maine is going to be

474
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 2: Maine is going to be super close. And when you

475
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 2: look at the list, there's that.

476
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 1: And this is where suddenly things get tricky after North

477
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 1: Carolina and Maine, which I think i'd put the odds

478
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: on as both of them fifty to fifty, with maybe

479
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: you know, a pinky on the scale for the Democrats

480
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 1: in North Carolina and a pinky on the scale because hey,

481
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: until somebody beat Susan Collins, I'm not going to be

482
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: you know, you know, I'm going to give her the

483
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt. Number three on the list is Ohio,

484
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: and it's simply just sort of by default. They have

485
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 1: a good candidate and shared Brown he's run before, they

486
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: have a path to forty seven percent.

487
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 2: I'm skeptical you can get the fifty.

488
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 1: I am, and I'm skeptical in the issue environment, I

489
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 1: don't think he's as anti tariff as what I think

490
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: the politics of anti tariffs is going to feel comes

491
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: spring in summer of twenty six and fall of twenty six.

492
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: But look, he's he's he's the.

493
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: Only Democrat that has figured out how to win statewide

494
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: and Ohio on the last decade. So you're you'd be

495
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: a fool to think that he can't win. But I

496
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,920
Speaker 1: think this is tougher. This is I think that last

497
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: three points is hard of a three points for Democrats

498
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 1: as there is anywhere.

499
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: In the country on that front.

500
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: And to go back to my incumbent conversation, I think

501
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 1: it's tougher for Shared Around to run against Washington when

502
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 1: he just came from Washington and he's trying to go

503
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 1: back to Washington. So I just think it's going to

504
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: be a tougher race. But if not him, who right

505
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: so as far as hey they've put it in play,

506
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: they're going to make them spend money, and that might

507
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: matter if they can expand the playing field. So right

508
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: now number three is Ohio number four. I don't know

509
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 1: if I would have had it last week, but I

510
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: put it in this week.

511
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 2: It's Iowa.

512
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 1: It's an open seat, and open seats are easier to

513
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: win than not. Rarely is it better for a party

514
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: to be defending an open seat rather than a sitting incumbent.

515
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,719
Speaker 1: Just trust me, no matter who it is. Sometimes if

516
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: the scandal is bad enough, you know, you'd rather get

517
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: rid of it. But anybody that's trying to tell you, oh,

518
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: oh you know, and no, no, no, they're better off

519
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: with Ashley Hinton than Joani.

520
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 2: ERNs gave me a break.

521
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: Okay, Ashley Hintson still has a lot to learn and

522
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 1: a lot of name idea building Western Iowa. I certainly

523
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: think she's a good political athlete and could do quite well,

524
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: and she's been winning in a swing district, so I

525
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: think she's going to be a strong candidate, but she's

526
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: not stronger than Joni Ernst. So this being an open

527
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: seat I do think opens that door. And look Democrats have,

528
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: you know, I think this primary field's pretty interesting. They

529
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 1: clearly have a preference, but the d SEC they don't have.

530
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 1: Juck Schimer has a pretty bad track record in Iowa.

531
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: He backed a candidate that couldn't even win the primary

532
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: last cycle. The last time they'd opened, they had a

533
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: candidate that had a reasonable shot at beating Chuck Grassley

534
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: who got out of the primary. I mean Mike Frankin,

535
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: but he was the official party tried to get him

536
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 1: out and clear the field for I think it was

537
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: abby thinking hour and she couldn't win the primary. So

538
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: they're trying to get behind a state representative from western Iowa.

539
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: I think he's got a good story and a lot

540
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: of people in Iowa tell me he could be really strong.

541
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: But I don't know if the d CC's track record

542
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: is very shaky when it comes to some of these

543
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: states of late on that front. But the fact that

544
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: they have a robust primary, I think tells you that

545
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: there's a strong gubernatorial candidate that Democrats will this is

546
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: their best shot at an Iowa Senate seat in a

547
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 1: couple of cycles.

548
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: It's there.

549
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: And then number five on the list is Texas because

550
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 1: of the crazy primary, trink Cornet and Paxton. We got

551
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: to see what happens there if Pacton's If Paxton's not

552
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: the nominee, Texas will not remain in my top five.

553
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: But I'm assuming Paxon is a nominee and Paxton is

554
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: the most beatable Republican. The question is what Democrat gets

555
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: up there to tall Rico is being floated, calling all

556
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: Red's out there, who knows better?

557
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 2: Or roar somebody ought to run for governor.

558
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: Just a suggestion, But it does seem as if, because

559
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: Paxton looks like such an easy target, that there are

560
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: a lot of ambitious Democrats looking more there than anywhere else.

561
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: So if Paxton wins the primary, you keep them in

562
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: the top five list.

563
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: But I'll be honest, this isn't you know.

564
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: Yes, technically they only need four seats, but I don't

565
00:31:58,160 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 1: see four easy wins here.

566
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 2: I see two on a good.

567
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: Night in this top five, and they need to get

568
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: which means they need to get more seats in play.

569
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: Nebraska could be in play. We'll see, We'll see how

570
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 1: Dan Osborne's campaign does the second time. Mississippi could be

571
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: if they can find somebody. Florida, could you just heard

572
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: Jared Moskowitz could get redistricted out of his seat, and

573
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: then he might run statewide. He's ideologically as good of

574
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: a fit as Democrats can find down there. For what

575
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: it's worth, Kansas is always possible because I think the

576
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: tariffs are going to be super unpopular. It's interesting that

577
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,479
Speaker 1: there's not a soul arguing that Democrats ought to try

578
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: to compete in Kentucky even though it's an open seat.

579
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: Shows you how far we've gone. There was a time

580
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: when an open seat in Kentucky would have garnered serious

581
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: interest from the out party on that front.

582
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: So there you go.

583
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: My dem top five pickup opportunities in the Senate right now,

584
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: North Carolina one, Main two, Ohio three, Iowa, four, Texas five.

585
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: Let me give you the Republicans. Let's be honest, there's

586
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 1: really four, and there's really they have four opportunities for

587
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: pickups that are legitimate. The question is there a fifth?

588
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: And I'll get to that in a moment. Right their opportunities,

589
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: three of the four opportunities are open seats. You have

590
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 1: the open seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Those

591
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 1: three retirements in Democratic like Minnesota Michigan and New Hampshire

592
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: have had have all sort of been consistently leaned down

593
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: in center races, right, if that's possible to be consistently

594
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: lean and they have been. I think the question is

595
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: going to be whether Republicans can nominate candidates that can

596
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: win statewide. Look, Mike Rodgers lost a very close race

597
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: two years ago. He's the likely Republican nominee. It's why

598
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: I have Michigan in the number one slot. It's their

599
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: number one pick up opportunity. John Thune is the best

600
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 1: example of somebody who loses narrowly in two thousand and

601
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 1: two to Tim Johnson runs two years later against Tom Dashell,

602
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: a seat that was thought would be harder to win,

603
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: and he narrowly wins that, and he's been there since.

604
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: There's quite a few senators who are in there who

605
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 1: lost two years prior in a pre Senate seat who

606
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: run again and win. Scott Brown is somebody who's run

607
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: a close race against Geen Shaheen. I moderated a debate

608
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 1: between the two of them. He was at the time.

609
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 1: I think he had just sort of carpet bagged his

610
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: way into New Hampshire, and I think it'd been a

611
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: true longtime New Hampshire right at that point, I think

612
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: he'd had a real shot at knocking her off.

613
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 2: Now he's been there a decade.

614
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 1: Now, he's you know, been there as long as most

615
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 1: Massachusetts transplants are in New Hampshire. So I don't think

616
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: the carpet bagging thing is going to be as effective

617
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:35,280
Speaker 1: as it was. I think when when Sheheen ran against him,

618
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: and so we'll see right and is in well, the

619
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: Chris Pappas will will and end up being you know,

620
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,719
Speaker 1: New Hampshire Democrats have done well in the center races

621
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire by being running close to the center.

622
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: She you know, they they've had governors who then have

623
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: made it into Senate races. So I think, look, I

624
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 1: put New Hampshire in the number two slot because it's open.

625
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 1: So Michigan won New Hampshire two.

626
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: Then a number three.

627
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna put a race with incumbent over the

628
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 1: third open seat, which is Minnesota. And there's a fourth

629
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 1: open seat. I'm gonna get to it in a minute.

630
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: So I have Michigan one second time candidate. You're gonna hear,

631
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 1: you know, we're going to have in the next week,

632
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 1: you're gonna hear from one of the Democratic candidates running

633
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 1: in that Senate seat. I'll do ELSI ed who's got

634
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders endorsement. Definitely is the progressive in that primary.

635
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: He's got a lot of traction. It's going to be

636
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: quite the bright contrast if he's the nominee and Mike

637
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 1: Rodgers's the nominee, and there's going to be a huge

638
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: and you might have huge Israel implications in a campaign

639
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 1: like that, But anyway, Michigan is one, New Hampshire is two.

640
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 1: Third is Georgia. Right, John Ossoff is having to run

641
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: this time without the help of a presidential turnout and

642
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 1: without the help of Rafael.

643
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: Warnock sharing the ballot. Both of those things were huge

644
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,080
Speaker 2: assets to John Ossoff in twenty twenty. He won't have

645
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 2: either one of those assets in twenty twenty six. And

646
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 2: I'm bullish on Derek Dooley.

647
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: If he's the former football coach, if he the son

648
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: of a legendary Georgia football coach, if he's the nominee,

649
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: I think he can run outsider lane better than some

650
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: of these members of Congress who are in this primary.

651
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: You know, if I'm also off I want to run

652
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: against anybody whose first name is congressman. I don't want

653
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: to run against somebody whose first name is coach. So

654
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: the primary is going to determine whether or not Georgia

655
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 1: moves even higher on this list or not. So Michigan

656
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,439
Speaker 1: won New Hampshire to Georgia three and in the fourth

657
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: spot by default. Really's Minnesota. Now, we haven't seen Republicans

658
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: have any They don't have the Scott Brown recruit yet, right,

659
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 1: which is you know he was. They couldn't get Christan Nunu,

660
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 1: so he was probably the next best best pick somebody

661
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 1: that makes it competitive. You'll have to fund it. You

662
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: got to take him seriously. He's been in the Senate, right,

663
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 1: all of those things. They don't have that candidate yet. Minnesota, though,

664
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 1: is a very is It is a you know, this

665
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 1: is like a fifty three to forty seven Democratic state.

666
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 1: It's not the sixty forty democratic state that many people

667
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: think it is. And it's not the sixty forty state

668
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: that am Klobashar is able to succeed it. She's got

669
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 1: a unique hole in that electorate. She overperforms Democrats, and

670
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 1: I think people forget this. I think if Tim Wallas

671
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: is running for a third term either way, I think

672
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: the governor's race is going to be the more competitive race,

673
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 1: but it will dictate the mood of the electorate.

674
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 2: And all of that. So I would I am, I am.

675
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: You know, if the political environment shifts against the Democrats

676
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 1: in the next six months, I'm skeptical.

677
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 2: That it will.

678
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: But if it does, Minnesota may attract a better quality

679
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 1: of candidate, and then suddenly you may get there, which

680
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 1: of course means, what do you put in the fifth slot?

681
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:46,200
Speaker 1: By default due to my open seat rule? I guess

682
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: you put Illinois there. And certainly, boy, did Democrats really underperform.

683
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: Back in twenty twenty four, the presidential vote between Harrison

684
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 1: Trump was as close as it's been in Illinois since

685
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two. So and yet, I just it's hard

686
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: to believe that you'll you'll see anybody, you know, I

687
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: think I think the winning Senate candidate in an Illinois

688
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:13,959
Speaker 1: in a bad day gets fifty five or fifty six.

689
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a pretty competitive primary. It's going to

690
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,799
Speaker 1: be very you know, likely a Chicago area candidate that

691
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 1: ends up there. Christian Morphy seems to be that both

692
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 1: the financial juggernaut has the early early head start there,

693
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: but you know, and it's an early primary. They're a

694
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 1: March primary, filing deadlines soon. I'll put Illinois in the

695
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: five slot, but it's you know, if you told me

696
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: Virginia got competitive because Mark Warner's been caught before napping,

697
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: if you told me New Jersey, if they elect a

698
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: Republican governor this cycle, does it motivate them to find

699
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: somebody to run in that Senate race against Booker or

700
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 1: does Booker just decide to start focusing on running for president.

701
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: And then there's always New Mexico, maybe just because it's

702
00:38:55,680 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: a state that, like Minnesota, at some point Republicans might

703
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 1: be able to make a competitive again. But so for

704
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: the default fifth, I'll put Illinois because it's an open seat.

705
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 1: But that is it may be that our list on

706
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: the Republican side in six months is actually only four,

707
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 1: that there is no fifth slot that we're just not

708
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: going to rank a fifth pickup opportunity.

709
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 2: So there you go.

710
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 1: The Republicans top five most likely I'm putting is Michigan,

711
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Georgia, Minnesota, and then for now Illinois, it's

712
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: like it's like putting Two Lane or Boise State, and

713
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: as the group of five representative in the college football playoff,

714
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 1: somebody's going to be the representative. Some in the group

715
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: of five. Maybe it's two Lane, maybe it's South.

716
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: Florida, maybe it's Boise.

717
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:42,319
Speaker 1: None of them are going to make it past a

718
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: second round, so maybe it doesn't really matter that much.

719
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 1: And it may be that fifth slot won't matter that

720
00:39:49,200 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 1: much there all right, I know that I am both

721
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 1: better informed thanks to Dexter filcons and really pissed off

722
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: at all this wasted money at the Pentagon. But I digress.

723
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 1: Let's do a little ass Chuck, ask Chuck. All right,

724
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: first question comes from Casey. Mister Todd, big fan of

725
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: the show and have followed closely since inception. Thank you

726
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:26,719
Speaker 1: and thank you and to your production team for all

727
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 1: you do. All right, we all appreciate the shoutouts. There

728
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: was a recent question on an episode regarding VP choice

729
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: for the two thousand election. I became a politics election

730
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: junkie during that election. I love campaign politics books that

731
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 1: provide insider behind the scenes looks not unlike your novel

732
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,800
Speaker 1: about President Obama. Well won a novel, but I guess

733
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 1: do you have any good suggestions about books surrounding or

734
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: covering the era leading up to, during, and slightly after

735
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 1: the two thousand election, other than your former colleague Steve

736
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 1: Karnaki's I was going to suggest the Steve Karnaky book.

737
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 1: Thanks for the good work, and I look forward to

738
00:40:57,000 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 1: remaining a consistent consumer. Well, look, there were a whole

739
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 1: bunch of quickie books written right around the two thousand election.

740
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: My friend Jake Tapper wrote one, but it was really

741
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: very focused on the recount itself, right, And I think,

742
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know quite if that's you know,

743
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: if you are looking at that, it's funny you talk

744
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 1: about that sort of era of politics. I do think

745
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:34,320
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton's book by John Harris, that's probably as that.

746
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 1: That's a good Clinton biography that I do think at

747
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: least gives you some insight on that era. I think

748
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,840
Speaker 1: his is better to understand that era than that David

749
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: Marinis Clinton book, which is more about Clinton right and

750
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 1: the sort of like what makes him tick.

751
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:52,800
Speaker 2: I certainly think.

752
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,799
Speaker 1: It's that's the better Clinton biography, But I do think

753
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 1: Harris's book captures the era.

754
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 2: Quite well.

755
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: You know, we just lost Jewles widcover now you ask

756
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 1: who the hell is Jewles Wick Coover. Well, when I

757
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 1: was first growing up, I used to obsessively read a

758
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 1: I used to watch the McLoughlin group. There was this

759
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: guy named Jack Jermond on there, and he was always

760
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,919
Speaker 1: one of He was this big, sort of heavy set

761
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 1: guy who was He wrote his memoir was called Fat

762
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: Guy in the Middle Seat. This is such a great

763
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: name for a memoir. He was a big horse racing fan.

764
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: Toward the later part of life became more liberal. I

765
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: don't know if he was really just a reporter's reporter,

766
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: but eventually would sort of shows, especially on that show

767
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 1: right where he had Buchanan and Novak and Bob Novak

768
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:50,759
Speaker 1: and McLoughlin, who are all sort of stage right. Elizabeth Alex,

769
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 1: I mean Eleanor Cliff was definitely stage left. Fred Barnes

770
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 1: with stage right back then, so Jerman sort of by default.

771
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 2: Came across of stage left sometimes.

772
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: But he had a writing partner named Jules wi Kover,

773
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 1: and they were they were old Washington Star correspondence back

774
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 1: when Washington was a tremendous two newspaper town. They went

775
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: to Funked and all those great Washington Star reporters basically

776
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 1: went to one of three places, either the Washington Post,

777
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: the New York Times, or the Baltimore Sun. And these

778
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: guys were the Baltimore Sun guys, and they Jerman and

779
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,240
Speaker 1: Wickcover's column was just a political junkie stream. Well every

780
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: presidential election for about I want to say they've done six.

781
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: They did six or eight of these books that basically

782
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 1: would do the quickie what happened, and it would be

783
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 1: a bit of a chronicle, you know, chronology report of

784
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: each campaign. But you know, they did one for ninety two,

785
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: they did one for ninety six, They had one for

786
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: two thousand, I believe, and one for four. They're good.

787
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 1: They're a little formulaic. I say that as a compliment.

788
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: They're meant to be formulaic, right, They're not. They're they're

789
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: not saying they're you know that. You know, it's like

790
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: getting the Almanac of American Politics going. Who said this

791
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 1: was going to be a reference book? What the alogics back? Right?

792
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:01,240
Speaker 1: You know they've done. It was a series of these

793
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 1: and it has some good insider stuff. I'd actually go

794
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 1: to there because you're right, the two thousand election, you know,

795
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 1: it was the weirdest election in that nobody covered the campaign,

796
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: but everybody covered the recount. Nobody was well sourced for

797
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: the campaign, but everybody was well sourced for the recount.

798
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 2: Shoot.

799
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 1: I've done a recount retrospective if you go back. I

800
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 1: think it's lived somewhere on the internet. I did something.

801
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,600
Speaker 1: I did an episodic podcast series called Florida Florida, Florida,

802
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,240
Speaker 1: where I had interviews with now the late Joe Lieberman,

803
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: I had interviews with Ted Cruz, Bill Daily, all the

804
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 1: players from the recount. We sort of relived the recount,

805
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: if you will. But that was the problem with the

806
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 1: two thousand election. It was always always the most interesting

807
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 1: part was the day after the election. Right, The campaign

808
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 1: itself was not that interesting, which maybe why there were

809
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 1: not as many books written about it. A whole bunch

810
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 1: of things about the recount.

811
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 2: That was it.

812
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 1: Then he had nine to eleven, which then I think

813
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 1: short chained to the four political book world because everything

814
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 1: was sort of more focused on counter terrorism, the threat

815
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 1: of Osama bin Laden, the threat of al Qaeda terrorism

816
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: on the shore right we were it was so the

817
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: appetite for those political junkie books was was at a low,

818
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 1: and four Right I benefited obviously from from new interest,

819
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: renewed interest with Obama and eight ton of books. I

820
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,720
Speaker 1: did two in the Obama era, one right after the election,

821
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 1: my version of a quickie type of thing, of more

822
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: of a of a what's going on with the electorate,

823
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: what happened, So it was like quasi reference, you know,

824
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 1: quasi analysis.

825
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 2: And then the.

826
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: Book about the first six years of the Obama presidency

827
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: that you referenced in there. But it's because we we

828
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:54,319
Speaker 1: literally Jules wi Kober passed away about about a week

829
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: or so ago, and I think he was like ninety

830
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:57,479
Speaker 1: seven ninety eight.

831
00:45:57,520 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 2: God bless him.

832
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: I want to say, I think I saw him at

833
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: a political convention in sixteen, like he was still going

834
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 1: there the last up into the last few years of

835
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 1: his life. But for the type of stuff you're looking for,

836
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: you'll enjoy it. And by the way, you want to

837
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 1: speaking of that era, if you want to have a fun,

838
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 1: if you if you if that era interests you, which

839
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 1: means the eighties, probably due to a little bit in

840
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: the politics of the seventies and eighties and the nineties.

841
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 1: Bob Novak's memoir it's long, but extraordinarily readable. It's written

842
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:40,240
Speaker 1: like a gossip column. It's Scott, it's you know, it's

843
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 1: If you're looking for that kind of junkie tidbit stuff,

844
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: go check it out.

845
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 2: You'll enjoy it. Again, it's pretty thick.

846
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: But if you're telling me what you're telling me, if

847
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: you enjoyed Kunakty's book, you'll enjoy this book. I promise you,

848
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: all right. Next question comes from Dandy Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. Says

849
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:00,799
Speaker 1: never sent you an email before, but wanted to reach

850
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 1: out and let you know that the Dumor Smith interview

851
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 1: was excellent.

852
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:03,800
Speaker 2: Well, thank you.

853
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: It took me inside of a world I knew existed,

854
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 1: but never imagine the sporto political drama involved. Damn in

855
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: forma been entertaining, Stay strong and keep talking. You are

856
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 1: heard with appreciation. Well that's very nice to hear. Look,

857
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:18,720
Speaker 1: I don't want to just be political guy that always

858
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: does the same.

859
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:19,759
Speaker 2: You know.

860
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 1: I've always said, look, there's politics and everything in life

861
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 1: number one. In fact, in the pre Trump world, I

862
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:31,080
Speaker 1: almost wrote a book about sort of you know, how

863
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: to use politics to navigate life in some form or another.

864
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 1: And then you know, I talked myself out of it,

865
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 1: even though I had some offers to you know, I

866
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 1: don't want people to use political tactics to navigate life.

867
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 2: Now that doesn't mean you shouldn't be.

868
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,879
Speaker 1: Aware of political tactics because they can be used against you.

869
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: But I just found myself, eh, I just you know,

870
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: it's a good column. I don't know if it's a

871
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty word book. But the point is

872
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,000
Speaker 1: is that I do. That is goal of this podcast,

873
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 1: hopefully the dexter focus thing. Also, when I get a chance,

874
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 1: I do want to get.

875
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 2: Into a world.

876
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:13,280
Speaker 1: Look, I'm obsessed with space. There's some new technology that's

877
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: coming about, you know, and there's a debate, you know,

878
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 1: should we have a should we put a base on

879
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 1: the moon?

880
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 2: What does that look like?

881
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 1: And let's just say that between that, the world of

882
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: gambling and how we're going to deal with a legal

883
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: movement and that, you know, there's all sorts of different

884
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 1: areas that I hope to bring into this and this

885
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 1: is heartening to know that. But the Morris had a

886
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:41,600
Speaker 1: political story to tell, as you can, as you heard,

887
00:48:41,600 --> 00:48:44,359
Speaker 1: and yes, I'm glad you got out of it when

888
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 1: I thought people.

889
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 2: Could get out of it. So thanks for the note.

890
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 2: All right, last question for the day. This one comes

891
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:52,480
Speaker 2: from Edward Yo. Chuck.

892
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 1: The yo is all caps with an exclamation point. Longtime listener,

893
00:48:57,960 --> 00:48:59,920
Speaker 1: first time call her. If terrorists are really taxes on

894
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: citizens imposed by executive fee out instead of Congress, then

895
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: why isn't anyone rally around the old cry of no

896
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 1: taxation without representation. Actually, I think that is kind of

897
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 1: the argument that's winning the day in the courts.

898
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 2: For what it's worth.

899
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:13,919
Speaker 1: As a history professor prepping for next years two hundred

900
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,359
Speaker 1: and fiftieth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, I can't

901
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 1: help but wonder are we too hypathetic, ambivalent, or just

902
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 1: discombobulated to care. Would love to hear your take. Let's

903
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 1: go orange, Syracuse, that is Edward Hey, I will say

904
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:31,760
Speaker 1: this about the Syracuse Orange. You know, they dug themselves

905
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: in an early hole, but stayed more competitive in that

906
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 1: game against Tennessee.

907
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 2: By the way, the worst thing.

908
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,359
Speaker 1: Are when two orange teams go up against each other,

909
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: because the orange is never aligned, they clash. Right, the

910
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 1: Syracuse Orange is, I have to say, I prefer you know,

911
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 1: it's got a little reddish hue into it. That Tennessee

912
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 1: orange is just too yellow for me, right, But the

913
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 1: clash of the orange is sometimes it's not good for

914
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: your TV. It's not good for your eyeballs. I swear

915
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 1: an acc guy I wanted. I was pulling for the

916
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 1: QUS to do well there. Look, I think what you're

917
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: arguing about. I think part of it is it's not

918
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 1: real yet. We're still in the You realize you're being taxed. Literally,

919
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: the bill is coming right now, right, we're all starting

920
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 1: to see it. You had about a if he started

921
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 1: implementing tariffs realistically, they started to be implemented in June

922
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,240
Speaker 1: and July. It's always about a sixty to ninety day lag.

923
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 1: He began it in April, but then pulled back right.

924
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: So the point is we hit the you know, it's

925
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,439
Speaker 1: been late July, early August. You're starting to you start

926
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,359
Speaker 1: to see the first signs of the tariff impacts at

927
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: Walmart and some.

928
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:47,840
Speaker 2: Of these places.

929
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: We're now going to have the deportation tax. What am

930
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 1: I talking about there? Well, the price of chicken meatpacking

931
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,280
Speaker 1: plants can't find people to do those jobs.

932
00:50:56,719 --> 00:50:57,240
Speaker 2: Are food.

933
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 1: The cost of food that specifically is tied to the deportation.

934
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 1: So I'd call that a deportation tax.

935
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 2: On that front.

936
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: So I guess my argument would be, let's see what

937
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 1: people think of tariffs in six months, and I do

938
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 1: think they'll see it as a tax and I do

939
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 1: think the courts are saying, you're right, this is taxation

940
00:51:20,560 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 1: without representation, that this was done unconstitutionally. So I'm counting

941
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 1: on it. I'm counting on the Supreme Court to do

942
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:34,439
Speaker 1: this because it's and I also believe that Trump will

943
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:37,919
Speaker 1: strong arm his party to vote on this and give

944
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 1: him the authority straight up. But at least we all

945
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 1: get to find out where they stand. I think this

946
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 1: is going to be a much harder vote for an

947
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: individual representative in Congress, particularly Republican who has spent decades

948
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 1: preaching that tariffs are taxes. They have to decide are

949
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 1: they going to raise every Are they going to raise

950
00:51:55,800 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 1: taxes on every American fifteen percent? That could be the

951
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 1: vote they have to cast in Congress. With that, some

952
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 1: great questions today, especially the ones that give us compliments.

953
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:12,560
Speaker 1: Those are our favorite. We'll take your five star reviews

954
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:16,360
Speaker 1: when you get a chance. But in all seriousness, this

955
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 1: has been great so far, and the feedback is always helpful,

956
00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: so we appreciate the constructive criticism as well, we've been

957
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,399
Speaker 1: trying to respond, give you different ways to consume on

958
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:32,359
Speaker 1: your time, at your speed and the way you want it,

959
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 1: you know, unlike my pals in Miami at Burger King,

960
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 1: have it your way and with that until we upload

961
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:38,839
Speaker 1: again