1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: read enough. 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 2: No running again, so smoothe so sweet, slipid. 4 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 3: Sixteen just glorious execution. 5 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that shop 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: with mind bog buddy, and that's why you see your 8 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most. 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 3: Nobody picks them. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying the wall. 13 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 2: It's left to Wanda, wide eyed drilled bibus how old 14 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 2: Earth pick that happens? 15 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: Hello e one and welcome back to want to Go 16 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 1: with the Soccer Benny podcast from the Action Network. My 17 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: name is Michael Liba and joining me is Anthony Dbundo. 18 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: BJ is still in Las Vegas, and BJ, we mean 19 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: this from the bottom of our heart. We hope that 20 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: you do so well out there in Sin City that 21 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: you don't have to keep hosting this podcast and you 22 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 1: just retire. But in the meantime, Antony and I will 23 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 1: be breaking down this week's four Champions League quarterfinal matches 24 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: coming your way. We'll start with Arsenal and Byron. Obviously, 25 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: Arsenal caught a huge break in the league over the 26 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 1: weekend with Manchester United earning a draw against Liverpool, and 27 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: now they have a pretty quick turnaround to take on Byron, 28 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: a team that is in uncharted territory for this group. 29 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: For this mob, they are out of it in the Bundesliga. 30 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: The bayer Leverkusen is going to coast to a title 31 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 1: to end there. What I think ten or eleven year 32 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: reign for Byron is it now plus count So their 33 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 1: sole focus will be on the Champions League and they 34 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: are traveling to the Emirates as a plus three fifty underdog. 35 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: On the three way line. They are plus one thirty 36 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: two advance. Arsenals MNUS won thirty on the three way line. 37 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: I just went sixty to advance to draw in ninety 38 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: minutes here is three to one. Anthony. You've been talking 39 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: about Arsenal as a buy in the Champions League for 40 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: a few weeks now, so I'm assuming you're gonna be 41 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: riding with your gunners here. 42 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 3: I am. 43 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 2: Yes, the market has moved heavily toward Arsenal. This opened 44 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: when the when the lines came out. We got the 45 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: draw a couple of week three weeks ago now, and 46 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 2: I was looking at it, I was like, we're hitting 47 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:27,839 Speaker 2: Arsenal pretty hard, and we're going to hit another team 48 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 2: pretty hard based on where I think the market's going 49 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 2: to open, And the market opened Arsenal at minus one 50 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 2: fifteen to advance. Didn't agree with it then, and the 51 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 2: market has moved pretty solidly toward Arsenal. 52 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 1: Now. 53 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 2: There have been some Byron injuries and some poor performances. 54 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 2: Shout out to anybody who had Hidinheim with us over 55 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 2: the weekend, should have put them in the parlay, because 56 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 2: we didn't hit any of those either. But Byron didn't 57 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 2: even have a performance that was worthy of a team 58 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 2: that cared. So I'm not really sure I'm going to 59 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 2: dock them for what happened on Saturday. It was pretty 60 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,080 Speaker 2: lifeless and they were up to nil and then kind 61 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 2: of fell asleep and let Heinheim back into the match. 62 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 2: But this is not a new trend for Byron away 63 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 2: from home, because they have played four away matches in 64 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: the Champions League this season. They have three wins and 65 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 2: a loss, but the performances have been pretty mediocre. And 66 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 2: if you remember back in November and December when we 67 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 2: had these conversations, I was like this is weird because 68 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 2: we're seeing Byron dominate the Bundesliga like they haven't before 69 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 2: in terms of underlying XG, and yet we're seeing them 70 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: go in Europe and just struggle in a group that, 71 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 2: like we didn't really think was that good. So they 72 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: were in a group with Man United, Copenhagen, Galatasaraye not 73 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: a tough group. United, we don't think much of them. 74 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: Copenhagen got waxed by City over two legs. Galatasarai a 75 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: team we like to advance, mostly because of the group 76 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 2: they caught, but they played four matches. They beat Copenhagen 77 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 2: two to one, but were held under one expected goal. 78 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 2: Mucialla hit a banger worldy to win two one late. 79 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 2: They had point nine xt GEK. They played Galatassar. They 80 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 2: beat them three to one, but they were out shot 81 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 2: badly in game. They conceded two point seven XG. They 82 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 2: only had one point nine of their own. They scored 83 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 2: two late goals to win that one, and then United 84 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 2: they beat on the final day one point two XG 85 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 2: against the United defense. 86 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: That's quite poor. 87 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 2: They go on the road to Lotzio in the first 88 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: match of the knockout round one point one x G four, 89 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,479 Speaker 2: give up one point six, lose one to zero, come 90 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 2: back and throttle them at home. But Lotzio a team 91 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 2: again who is mid table in Italy. So they have 92 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 2: played a bunch of mediocre to MEH teams in the 93 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: Champions League this year and have not had a single 94 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 2: performance except for the second leg against Lotzio, And I 95 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 2: was like, yes, that is the buyer we expect. And 96 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 2: now Kolman, Sane and Noy are all unlikely to play 97 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 2: huge losses. Puts a lot of pressure on Cannabre who's 98 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 2: been in and out of fitness himself. In those four 99 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: away matches, they've conceded more expected goals than they created. 100 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 2: And you know, I think it's interesting that Arsenal struggled 101 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 2: against Porto. But I'm kind of curious what you thought 102 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: of that and if maybe we should just throw that 103 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 2: out because of how domin they've been in the league, 104 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 2: because it is interesting to me that they went into 105 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,239 Speaker 2: the Champions League and I mean went to penalties, almost 106 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 2: went out of this tournament. 107 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually was going to bring this up. I 108 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: do think it's interesting. I think that this is a 109 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: team that is, for lack of a better word, very 110 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: rhythm based Arsenal, like it feels like they are a 111 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: team that and it doesn't. It should be surprising because 112 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: of where Arteta comes from, et cetera. Like they just 113 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: want things on their terms, and I feel like when 114 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: when things aren't going their way, I can get like 115 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 1: a little tight maybe is the best word way to 116 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: put it. That said, I don't think that Byron is 117 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: gonna go out there and play that kind of script 118 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: that we saw from Porto against Arsenal at all. I 119 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,720 Speaker 1: think that this should end up being I feel like, 120 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 1: a pretty interesting watch. Like I think Byron, you want 121 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: to talk about throwing something out, I'm happy to throw 122 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: out basically the last month of results outside of the 123 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 1: Champions League from Byron, because it's been done. They've been 124 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: feuding with the manager in the Bundesliga, so I think 125 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: that this is a team that's focused here, uh, just 126 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 1: on the Champions League. I do think with the market movement, 127 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: they're becoming a little bit more interesting. I don't think 128 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:11,479 Speaker 1: it's going to stop either. I don't I don't really 129 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 1: see them. I don't think people with the injury news 130 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: coming out looking to rush to bet Byron, and I 131 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: think it comes down to can can they find a 132 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: way to breach this Arsenal defense and and get this 133 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: game to be a little bit more helter skelter than 134 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: Arsenal Watson, I actually don't think it's all that crazy. 135 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: This is going to be the biggest you know, European 136 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 1: match that this team's face or yep, in terms of, uh, 137 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: how do we want to how do we want to play? 138 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 1: Like in terms of limelight, like this is an Arsenal 139 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: team that still is getting its legs under him in 140 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 1: that regard, Like it's not in all that experience side. 141 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: This Byron team is obviously pretty long in the tooth 142 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 1: in that regard, So I think that there are some 143 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 1: uh intangible aspects that maybe make you want to nudge 144 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: towards Byron. That said, it's not I don't know if 145 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: it's all that appealing yet, Like the number, I'd be 146 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: closer to bet Byron at this point then on the 147 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 1: three way line than Arsenal. The two advanced line, I 148 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: don't think is appetizing. It all on Byron Munich, I 149 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: don't know Arsenal is it's they keep winning me over. 150 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: I think more and more every week in the Premier 151 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: League and then it's that one performance against Porto or 152 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: I guess that the two legs right that are kind 153 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: of shaking everybody up a bit. So I think it 154 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: comes down to that, like if you're putting some weight 155 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: into maybe this team just isn't built to do the 156 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: quick turnaround games that they need. There. You know, it's 157 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: one thing to crush like Luten or Wolves on short rest, 158 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: but like to do it against Byron gets a little trickier. 159 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: So if you're looking at stuff like that, I can 160 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: understand you trying to pull us towards Byron. I'm gonna 161 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: probably sit this one out though, Like I said, it 162 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: would be Byron or nothing and tip of the cap 163 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: to anyone who met Arsenal early. 164 00:07:58,960 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 3: Well here's the. 165 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 2: Thing, right, so I've had a thought on this. You're 166 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 2: right about the rhythm thing. Like Portea is very good 167 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 2: in their blow block and made it very difficult for Arsenal. 168 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 2: There just aren't that many little blocks in the prem 169 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 2: this year. They are any good and it is a 170 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,119 Speaker 2: very different matchup than the one you're gonna see from Bayern, 171 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 2: Who's gonna want more of the ball. Both managers want control. 172 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 2: I kind of think that lends to the under Champions 173 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: League first leg unders. I'm gonna say this once off 174 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 2: the top because it should undertone every conversation we have 175 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 2: about these matchups. Twenty eight seven and one to the 176 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:38,080 Speaker 2: under eighty percent first leg under since they abolished the 177 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 2: away goal rule in the first leg in twenty twenty 178 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 2: one twenty twenty two, so there's been a noticeable difference 179 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 2: in how these teams have approached them. Second legs under 180 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 2: is actually still slightly profitable, but it's pretty close. 181 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 3: To fifty to fifty. 182 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 2: So in the first round of this Champions League matchup, 183 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 2: there was one game that went over. It should kind 184 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 2: of give you a perspective. Arsenal port one nil, even 185 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 2: Byron Lotzio one nil. This to me like, I think 186 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: as Arsenal continues to get bet out, I think you're 187 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 2: gonna see them continue to take money because they have 188 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 2: taken money in each of their last two matches against Porto, 189 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:16,599 Speaker 2: and the market went pretty hard against Byron and in 190 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 2: its first match against Lotzio as well. Like there is 191 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 2: some market, real market downgrade on Byron, and it's not 192 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: just in the Bundesliga. It is also leaking into their 193 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 2: lead into their Champions League performances too, so I think 194 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 2: that is meaningful. 195 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 3: I think when you. 196 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 2: Consider Arsenal's defense being as elite as it is, they 197 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:43,959 Speaker 2: weren't as dominant away from home against Porto, but then 198 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,839 Speaker 2: Porto comes home and it's they had nothing. So you're 199 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: gonna hear a lot about like, oh, Harry Kane loves 200 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 2: a goal against Arsenal and Harry Kane this against Arsenal. 201 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 2: I just don't really think this Byron team is that 202 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 2: good out of possession, and I don't think they're gonna 203 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 2: be able to take advantage of Arsenal in those area. 204 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 2: And if you go back and look like City Byron 205 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 2: was not competitive last year and this is a largely 206 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 2: same Byron team with Kane on top. Now, so are 207 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 2: we and everybody's kind of a year. They kind of 208 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 2: just ran it back around Kane and it doesn't seem 209 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 2: to me that they're any better out of possession. So 210 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 2: where does Byron have the edge here? Yeah, Harry Kane 211 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 2: is probably the only answer. It's like, oh, Harry Kane 212 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 2: doesn'tthing crazy because he's a world class player. 213 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 3: On the other side, Eh. 214 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, It's it's that classic conundrum where if you took 215 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:35,839 Speaker 1: Byron's season long like statistical profile and covered up the 216 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 1: name Byron and slapped via Reale over it, you'd be like, Wow, 217 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: this line is going to be long, right, you know 218 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 1: it's it's I think they're probably getting and I mean 219 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: they deserve some respect, right Like, I mean, there's still 220 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: Byron and have good, good teams. But I think that, yeah, 221 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: that's why I think that the line still has a 222 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: little bit of room to grow here. 223 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,680 Speaker 2: So how many players from Byron make it into the 224 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 2: first team. So Noyer's out, so he doesn't. 225 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: Know it with so Muciala. 226 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: Muciala might be it. 227 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, depending on what you think of the left backs, 228 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 2: I'd probably take the Alfonso Davies over anybody Arsenal had, 229 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: so three players, Yeah, Chemick is interesting to me, maybe 230 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 2: so maybe four, but pretty clearly Arsenal otherwise, so especially 231 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 2: in the midfield. So yeah, I mean, I just I'm 232 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 2: really down with Byron team, and we've been sounding alarm 233 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 2: bells about them and saying, oh, they'll probably be fine 234 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 2: in Germany, but it's very clearly not the case anymore. 235 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: And I think the market's going to keep running. I 236 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 2: think Arsenal may be like a goal by the time 237 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 2: this is over, and honestly I don't necessarily disagree with it. 238 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 2: I have Arsenal, So when we first ran these numbers, 239 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 2: I had Arsenal minus one thirty first leg. But since 240 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 2: upgrading Arsenal a little bit Byron's taken a hit because 241 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 2: they keep losing in Germany. Uh, this is closer to 242 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 2: minus one sixty for me. Yeah, so I'm one thirty. 243 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,559 Speaker 2: I don't mind Arsenal in the first leg either. And 244 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 2: BJ's running in the preview, so he's gonna wax poetically 245 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 2: and you can read his briview if you want his thoughts, 246 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 2: although I can imagine where he might lean on this match. 247 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe BJ's got something up his sleeve for us. 248 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: I think the next match it's gonna sound crazy. I 249 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: think it's the most compelling match on the board of 250 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: the four. And when you hear the bet that I'm 251 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 1: gonna stump for, it's gonna make no sense. But it's real. 252 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 1: Madrid there plus one ninety five on the three way 253 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: line at home. City's traveling is at plus one forty 254 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,319 Speaker 1: five favorite the draw up plus two forty five. City 255 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: is the biggest favorite too, advance on the board right 256 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 1: now there minus two fifteen Real Madrid plus one seventy. 257 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: I do think if you have some interest in betting 258 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: Real Madrid in on the three way line, you might 259 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,280 Speaker 1: as well take some two advance as well. But I 260 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: like danil nil here. I like the under here. I 261 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 1: think that this you talked about that trend already, we 262 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: don't need to go into it. This match feels like 263 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: it's going to be two teams just turning out the lights. 264 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: I don't think that either side would be mad with 265 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: this thing, going back to the had one nil either direction. 266 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: I don't think either side would be too fussed about 267 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 1: it being nil nil. I just think they're both gonna 268 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:12,199 Speaker 1: want to Ancelotti shown and that he's a master a 269 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: kind of big picturing these tournaments, like making sure that 270 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: you're keeping both legs and the entire tournament kind of 271 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: in the scope of your vision as you play these matches, 272 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: And that is what I'm looking at here. And plus 273 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: you got now you've got City. They're playing a ton 274 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 1: of soccer, very high stake soccer over the past few weeks. 275 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: Now this short turnaround, they go from playing aston Villa, 276 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: they come back to win that one going away over 277 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 1: the weekend. Excuse me, Crystal Palace. They played Villa, then 278 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: they had to come back beat Crystal Palace over the weekend. 279 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 1: They end up kind of putting into cruise control late. 280 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: But that game was a little more health skelter than 281 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: we thought it was gonna end up being. Now they 282 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: have to make the quick trip to Spain, and I 283 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: don't think that we're going to see either side try 284 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 1: to shift out of third gear at all. You know, like, 285 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 1: this isn't This isn't a game that I think is 286 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 1: going two huge names in terms of like the weight 287 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 1: of the clubs, two of the best clubs in the world. 288 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: You got the most successful team in the European competitions 289 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: in Real Madrid. You've got the best team in the 290 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: world at City. And I think that this thing has 291 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: a decent chance of ending mil nil. 292 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I like under two and a half. 293 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 2: I think draws good too. There's been a noticeable improvement 294 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: Real Madrid's defensive metrics second half of the season. We 295 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 2: talked about them in the fall. I think we faded 296 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 2: them a bunch. We were saying every competent I remember 297 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 2: saying the line like every competent team they play gets 298 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 2: to one and a half XG against them. That's no 299 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 2: longer the case. First half of the season until January one, 300 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: this is La League only. They were getting up one 301 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 2: point one XGA per match, which is not good for 302 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 2: Real Madrid. Really, it's much worse than they normally set. 303 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 2: It's like a forty forty five goal pace. That's not 304 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 2: title winning defense. Since then, zero point eight x G 305 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 2: per match. Part of me, you know, they have started 306 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 2: to work Camavinga in the midfield more two Ameni's gotten 307 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 2: more minutes, They've played less moderate and cross. I think 308 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 2: that has helped their defense. And the funniest part is 309 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 2: that it's come during this injury crisis where they have 310 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 2: barely had enough center backs fit for all these matches, 311 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 2: so they have struggled with injuries and yet played better 312 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: two men. He's played a lot of minutes at center 313 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 2: back really well too, so they've found something that works defensively, 314 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 2: and I think Pep has seen enough of Real Madrid, 315 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 2: you know on the break. I mean, these teams play 316 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 2: every year, and the first leg last year was really 317 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 2: instructive because Pep didn't take any chances whatsoever. If you 318 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 2: pull up touches in the opposition penalty area last season 319 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 2: for City, and you line up every match they played 320 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 2: in a treble winning season. Their three lowest games were 321 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 2: Bayern Munich away, which they were already up three to 322 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 2: zero on aggregate. 323 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 3: Makes sense, Okay, we'll say whatever. 324 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 2: Copenhagen away they got like a red card in an 325 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: eighth minute. It was already a dead rubber, so they 326 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 2: didn't really do much in that game. The Champions League 327 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 2: final against Inter, which by the way, credit to ter 328 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 2: that was a masterful game from them, and whatever the 329 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 2: fourth game Real Madrid nineteen box touches. So every Premier 330 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 2: League game they played last year more, every meaningful game 331 00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 2: against Byron. The second leg against Real Madrid was overwhelming, 332 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 2: the dortmun so everybody they played in the group stage, 333 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 2: Arsenal Liverpool regardless of who they played. Arsenal were the 334 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 2: two lowest in the prem Every meaningful, non dead rubber 335 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: they played. Real Madrid and Inter were the two best 336 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 2: teams in those legs, keeping them out of the penalty area. 337 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 2: And I think it kind of gets to the point, 338 00:16:55,440 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 2: what do we know about those two matches. It's Guardiola 339 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 2: playing not to lose and the result of that is 340 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 2: they just don't play to win, and I don't think 341 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: they need to win this match. I think they're not 342 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 2: gonna be just fine taking one to one back to 343 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 2: Madrid or to Manchester. They're gonna be laying minus one 344 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 2: fifty five one sixty. Hopefully the markets open it short 345 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 2: again like last year. I think they throttle them in 346 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 2: Manchester and I think that they move on here. But 347 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 2: in terms of the two advanced market, we're getting to 348 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: a point now where Arsenal might be a bigger favorite 349 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 2: and Atletico might be a bigger favorite to advance in 350 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 2: their matchups because the market just keeps steaming towards them 351 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,640 Speaker 2: and against these German teams compared to Real Madrid, who 352 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 2: you know, second leg, if we're getting a full goal, 353 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 2: it's gonna be really interesting to think about that matchup, 354 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 2: because I do think City like can and will throttle them. 355 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 2: But if Madrid gets up there in price like, it's 356 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 2: gonna get interesting if I'm gonna have to play back 357 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 2: against what I think is gonna happen, just because the 358 00:17:56,119 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 2: number gets so insane. Because this Real Madrid team with 359 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:06,359 Speaker 2: a real competent defense, it's a lot more interesting to 360 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 2: me than like last year's team who was total smoking 361 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 2: mirrors and then just got punished. And even two years 362 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 2: ago they won the tournament, but they like, you. 363 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: Can't quality that. What a tournament smoking mears, dude, you 364 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: want a. 365 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 2: Tournament that Courtois was a hero for sure, they wanted 366 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 2: they were smoking mers. They were down two goals and 367 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 2: like every match, they end up coming back to win. 368 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: But they won. 369 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 3: You know, That's what Matt, smoking mirrors. You can win things. 370 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 1: That's what matters. All the matters is that you win. 371 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, in the end, So interest in real Madrid from 372 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 2: me and not in the market necessarily. But if they 373 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 2: got up to like two to one, I think I 374 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:43,639 Speaker 2: would I think I would consider it to do it 375 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 2: to advance. 376 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: That is, no mill Is thirteen to one. That's that's 377 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: going to be something on that. 378 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 3: That's yeah. 379 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 2: I mean, you know the reason that first legs are 380 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:53,959 Speaker 2: the way they are is if you look at like 381 00:18:54,280 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 2: scoring in a soccer match, it trends exponentially up as 382 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 2: the match goes on. Right, teams take more chance, says well, 383 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 2: if you just lop off the last fifteen minutes because 384 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 2: they know there's another ninety coming right, That's where it 385 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:09,040 Speaker 2: gets interesting. So I think people are always like, oh, 386 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 2: first half under. I actually kind of think it's the 387 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,400 Speaker 2: opposite in the situation where you want that second half 388 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 2: under because the market's going to I mean, the market 389 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 2: knows to an extent, but the market's going to say, hey, like, 390 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: let's say it's one one a half, You're gonna get 391 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 2: a really good number on under three and a half 392 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:28,439 Speaker 2: for the game, probably plus money, and like there's just 393 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,959 Speaker 2: not going to be a ton of chance taking from 394 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 2: either team in the second half of that situation. So 395 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 2: so you know, the exceptions to that are like if 396 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 2: somebody goes up to then you know, the calculus changes. 397 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 2: But with Real Madrid's defense being improved and City not 398 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 2: taking any chances with the first leg year like, this 399 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 2: is under two and a half plus one fifteen for 400 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 2: me all day long. 401 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,360 Speaker 1: Okay, that does it for Tuesday before we get to Wednesday. 402 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: A reminder that wonder goal is proudly presented by Bet 403 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: three sixty five and bet three six five. Does it 404 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: do ordinary? 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You 412 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, 413 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia, or eighteen and 414 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. If you have a gambling problem or 415 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 1: know somebody who does and wants help, please call one 416 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,640 Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. 417 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 1: Terms conditions and restrictions apply Wednesday. PSG and Barcelona to 418 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: kick it off this one in Paris. PSG is an 419 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 1: even money favorite on the three way line Barcelona plus 420 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 1: two sixty. The draw is plus two eighty to advance. 421 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 1: PSG a slight favorite. This is the tightest of them all. 422 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 1: For the quarter finals. PSG's minus won thirty the Barcelona 423 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: the Catalans plus one h five two advance. This is 424 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: kind of I've got nothing here. I think this is 425 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: really hard. I think you can make a pretty salient 426 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: argument to go against PSG. Do they do they create 427 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: enough to be this big a favorite? I don't know, 428 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,360 Speaker 1: so I would lean towards Barcelona. I think it's tough 429 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: though this is this is like one of those matches 430 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: where I feel like whatever I bet will end up 431 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: being the wrong side. So I have a bet in 432 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 1: the other match, and I'm happy to keep it to 433 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:28,600 Speaker 1: one on each day. What about you? 434 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:33,119 Speaker 2: So the injury situation for Barsa is the biggest question 435 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 2: here because Pedrie Christiansen Deyong are all listed as questionable. 436 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: Now you keep if you read it's like, oh, they're 437 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 2: expecting him to be fit, but like that could also 438 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 2: be a headfake. So this is a match for me 439 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,240 Speaker 2: where if Pedri and Deyong are in the midfield for Barcelona, 440 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 2: I don't think there's a meaningful difference between the two 441 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 2: teams whatsoever. And I think Barsa's a live dog and 442 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna bet them puzz a half for sure, 443 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 2: because when they're not in the they're not on the 444 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 2: Barsa has no ability to control matches and they get 445 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 2: very end to end transitional. Now it could be different 446 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 2: in this sense because it's a first leg, and so 447 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 2: you might see some more feeling out, more possession from 448 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 2: each team. They kind of just nullify each other. Again, 449 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 2: I'm okay with that if I have the dog. 450 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 3: And but here's the thing, if. 451 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,239 Speaker 2: It gets into an end to end matchup, I just 452 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 2: think that Imbope is such the difference maker for PSG 453 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 2: and just in this matchup, like very clearly the best 454 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 2: player on the pitch, that it tilts everything. And so 455 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 2: this for me is a great live betting game. You 456 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 2: can see within ten minutes how much is PSG able 457 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 2: to get Imbope into space? How much of the match 458 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 2: is transitional where oh look PSG runs and there's nobody 459 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 2: within twenty yards of the player as he's making his 460 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 2: run through the midfield ball carrying it forward. Or are 461 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,879 Speaker 2: they constantly able to find the ball out against Barcelona's 462 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 2: press to imbope because they are, this could get really 463 00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 2: ugly for Barcela, Like they could get smoked. 464 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 3: Wouldn't shock me. 465 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 2: But again, I think most of the game states this 466 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 2: match plays out in especially being a first leg, it 467 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 2: ends up in more of a condensed space, and I 468 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 2: think that favors BARSA. I don't trust PSG they've played 469 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 2: so mediocre ish in a lot of their league matches 470 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 2: and kind of snug results on talent, but like the 471 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: profile is not that good, and Barsa can keep the ball, 472 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 2: and that's one thing PSG has struggled with. If you 473 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 2: can have a ton of possession against Enrique, his teams 474 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 2: are not that comfortable. So I think there's more paths 475 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,239 Speaker 2: to me betting Barsa here, But again I'm waiting on 476 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 2: injury news because if they have to start like this 477 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 2: makeshift midfield, I don't want to bet Barsa on the 478 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 2: road in the Champions League. So that's kind of where 479 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 2: I come down on this. You know, lean to the 480 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 2: under just generically. This is the one match I think 481 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 2: that could and I would most likely bet the over. 482 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 2: I just don't really want to because of you're going 483 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 2: against a trend that I think is real and significant 484 00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 2: because of how the rules have changed, and I don't 485 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 2: you know, you'd expect the market to have adjusted to 486 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 2: it by now, but it's not seemingly been the case, 487 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 2: and my numbers say it really isn't the case in 488 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,920 Speaker 2: this matchup either, So I think the dog is live, 489 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:13,719 Speaker 2: but I'm waiting on injury reports. So it might be Barsa. 490 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 2: For me, the bsg's the favorite to make the final. 491 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 2: It's kind of wild, given the like this is supposed 492 00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 2: to be a traditional year, and I know I have 493 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:22,959 Speaker 2: a ticket on them, but I don't. I don't know 494 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 2: Barsia's healthy. I kind of think they're a true coin 495 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 2: flip here. So if you can get Barca plus two 496 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 2: advance once the news comes out that they're going to 497 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 2: have their best guys for the invest midfielders for both legs, 498 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 2: I'm in on Barsa, Bielo Barsa back. 499 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: By Loo Barsa. 500 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:40,479 Speaker 3: Okay. 501 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,199 Speaker 1: I feel like as these matches have kind of gone on, 502 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 1: or is these discussions have gone on, I feel like 503 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 1: we have a pretty decent idea of how these matches 504 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,439 Speaker 1: will play out, Like the kind of pass that they 505 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: can wander down. This last one I've got. I think 506 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: it's got chaos written all over it. I think this 507 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: thing could be a ton of fun. The atmosphere will 508 00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 1: will definitely be awesome as it always is for Los 509 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 1: Culchannarrows Atletico Madrid. They are minus one twenty five on 510 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: the three way line at home against Brusha Dortmund coming 511 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: in at plus three seventy right now, in the drop 512 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 1: plus two seventy two advanced at Letty minus one seventy 513 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 1: Dortmund plus one thirty five. As it's been for two 514 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 1: maybe three years, Atletico Madrid's form is kind of just scattershot, 515 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,400 Speaker 1: like it's always all over the place. Lately, it's good 516 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 1: enough for them to always hang around the top three 517 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:42,919 Speaker 1: or four in La Liga, but beyond that it's just 518 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 1: it's it's inconsistent for a team that's always in playing 519 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 1: Champions League. Dortmund's form also, you know, who the hell 520 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: knows is going on there. They start, they go on 521 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 1: a great run through the March. The month of March 522 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 1: they beat Byron. Then they kind of just get unlucky 523 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 1: in a one zero loss to Stuttgart over the weekend. 524 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 1: But their form has been, you know, ups and down 525 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 1: and ups and down all season. We were talking about 526 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: how this is a team that in that group of 527 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: death with PSG Newcastle and AC Milan probably was the 528 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 1: most likely to finish last in our mind, and here 529 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: they are, and they these two teams catch a huge 530 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: break in the draw. They are the two teams I 531 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: think everybody in in a rights frame of rind would 532 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,880 Speaker 1: have as seven and eight power rating in this pool 533 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: they end up playing each other. It's a beauty of 534 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 1: tournament football and I got no idea how this match goes. 535 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 1: And I think that actually is good for the home 536 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 1: team here, like I think Atletico Madrid has the makeup 537 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,520 Speaker 1: the they're clinical, they should be clinical. They got our 538 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:59,399 Speaker 1: boy Marada. I think that this price is okay to 539 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: lay here at home minus one twenty five. I guess 540 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 1: a Dortmund team that like clear eighth best team in 541 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 1: the field. 542 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 2: Clear, yeah for me, not even close. This should be 543 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 2: Inter one of them. The should be PSV. 544 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 3: I mean. 545 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: One of the heartbreaking days of my entire year was 546 00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 2: betting year, and just that that Wednesday afternoon when Inters 547 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:25,560 Speaker 2: up two nail and aggregate and they just give one 548 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,320 Speaker 2: right back and then their defense. I mean it was 549 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 2: just such a melt and really a shame because Inter 550 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,360 Speaker 2: would have been the clear favorite for me to make 551 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 2: the final from this side over BARSA, over PSG, over 552 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 2: Dortmund or over PSV and then PSV. I mean, how 553 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 2: many times did Luke get in behind this defense and missitters. 554 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 2: They won the XG over two legs and then you know, 555 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 2: concede late to go out. But it was well to 556 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 2: confirm going out. They were heading out anyway. But over 557 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,119 Speaker 2: the two legs, like, this is a Dortmound team that 558 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 2: was pretty even with the Dortmund team that. Yeah, they 559 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 2: won their Classicer at Byron, probably the least impactful their 560 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 2: Classicer win they're ever going to have, and they didn't 561 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 2: even really control it. I mean it was XG was 562 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,120 Speaker 2: two over two for Byron to zero point eight for Dortmund. 563 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 2: And then yeah, they were better than stood guard on XG, 564 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 2: but so much of their XG was racked up in 565 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 2: the final eight minutes when they were already down. They 566 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 2: had like three or four sitters they should have scored 567 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 2: to tie the game, but they were never better in 568 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 2: the first hour. So I kind of don't really find 569 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 2: this Dortmund team to be all that appealing As a dog. 570 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 3: I think that a letti is live. 571 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 2: The thing that's always scary though, is now it's like, Okay, 572 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 2: we've seen Simeone do. 573 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 3: The dog roll one hundred times. 574 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: This new attack they have with Greaismon de Pai and 575 00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 2: Marata and so many more options that can actually score goals. 576 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 2: Do we trust them more as a favorite, Because I 577 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 2: know the minute I bet them. Now it's gonna be like, oh, 578 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 2: you know, they come out and they won one draw it, 579 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 2: they don't care. 580 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:57,640 Speaker 1: They'll go down. Yeah, they'll go down one nil in 581 00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: like the six minute on a penalty or something that 582 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 1: you're drawing yeah. 583 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 2: So or are you? I mean, you know, the attack 584 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,280 Speaker 2: is better, but generally speaking you're drawing dead for that 585 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 2: money line ticket. 586 00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,560 Speaker 3: So I do like it. LETTI here I played in 587 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 3: two advance. This is the other one. 588 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 2: Artell and Alette have taken a ton of money in 589 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 2: the market. Arsenal or I'd let you open like minus 590 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 2: one twenty five is to advance. They're up to you know, 591 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 2: minus one sixty five seventy. Now, I would almost rather 592 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 2: lay the juice on the two legs because I trust 593 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 2: them that much more then I would to lay the 594 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:28,200 Speaker 2: money line as a favorite in the first leg because 595 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 2: I think if this comes down to it, they need 596 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 2: to get a tie, or they need to grind it 597 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 2: out against Dortmund late, or they need to hit Dortmann 598 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 2: on the brake in front of the you know the 599 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 2: yellow wall. I almost trust them more in that ruah 600 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 2: still right, So I'd almost rather lay the one sixty 601 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 2: and obviously like it's a bigger number, but I'd rather 602 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 2: lay that than lay the you know, minus one twenty five. 603 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 2: But again, if you want action, it's going to settle 604 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 2: on Wednesday. I think at Letti's good. I just don't 605 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 2: really think this Dortmann team is worth a damn away 606 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 2: from home. Their defense is so bad, like even so 607 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 2: the PSV match they give up three point three xgu 608 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 2: over two legs, and even their road games, like they 609 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,680 Speaker 2: go to verte Bremen, they go to Ugnon, they give 610 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 2: up one point three to Hoffenheim, one point two to 611 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 2: one point eight, the verte Bremen one point eight to Wolfsburg. 612 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 2: Every anybody can score on this team. 613 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 3: They're just that bad defensively. 614 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 2: So I mean, I Letty has the talent and I 615 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 2: think they're better on both sides. 616 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 1: Almost Okay, So uh hell freezing over a bit on 617 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 1: this podcast with you backing Diego Simeoni. 618 00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 3: What was your ticket again? First time? 619 00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: First time? 620 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 3: Thirty one? 621 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,440 Speaker 1: It was I think it was twenty eight to one. 622 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 1: I gotta, I gotta look, but I also had I 623 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: have one parlaid with an Australian Football League team as 624 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 1: well as so yeah, you. 625 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 2: Know, none of us have ever heard of yeah, but 626 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 2: you'll find a guy at the US Open when we 627 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 2: go this year wearing a hat who's got the team. 628 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: Yes, yes, that's it. The craziest that was the Adelaide Crows, 629 00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:59,960 Speaker 1: who had just lost in one of the most bizarre 630 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: are Var decisions ever where base essentially a ball went 631 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: through an upright for a field goal and the Var 632 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 1: said no, inconclusive and it cost them a chance to 633 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 1: go to the playoffs. So there you go, Okay, will 634 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,120 Speaker 1: I just want to read out that the outright odds 635 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 1: before we move on to your bets for the Europa 636 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,800 Speaker 1: and Europa Conference League and see if there's just anything 637 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: that sticks out. I think the most the thing that 638 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,280 Speaker 1: sticks out here is the price on Dortmund compared to 639 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 1: everybody else. But City is the favorite. They are clear 640 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 1: favorites at plus one eighty seven. Arsenal is second favorite 641 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: five to one. That's not too far off from where 642 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 1: you were stumping for them too, so perhaps you still 643 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: think there's value there. Real Madrid six to one, byron 644 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 1: is seven, PSG's eight to one, Barcelona ten to one, 645 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 1: los Cochonnaro's are boy Diego Simioni and Atletico Madrid they 646 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 1: are twelve to one, Dortmund twenty five to one. Anything 647 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 1: real quick here that jumps out? 648 00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean still Arsenal from me? Okay, in a 649 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 2: two legged We just watched Guardiola and Arteta play two 650 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:10,280 Speaker 2: matches this year, that I mean broke football. No team 651 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,719 Speaker 2: got to one XG in either match. So if they 652 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 2: play in the Champions League over two legs in April 653 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 2: in the semi final, which I do think is going 654 00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 2: to happen, I said, I like Arsenal. I think I 655 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: gave him out six, six or seven to one on 656 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,760 Speaker 2: this pod. They're my team in the Champions League that 657 00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 2: I've been backing. What is the gap in a two 658 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,600 Speaker 2: legged tie? Because over thirty eight in the Premier League 659 00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 2: and in my power ratings, like, yes, I still think 660 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,959 Speaker 2: City is the better team because they have more attacking firepower. 661 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 2: But over two legs where both managers are so paranoid 662 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,560 Speaker 2: about losing and conceding anything that neither ends up happening. 663 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 2: Is that not like almost a coin flip? And so 664 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 2: if Arsenal is priced about the same maybe a little 665 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 2: worse to beat Bayern as City is to beat Madrid, 666 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 2: and then we think it's gonna be like kind of 667 00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 2: a coin flip in the semis, and then whoever wins 668 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:00,520 Speaker 2: that is the favored in. 669 00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 3: The final right wide margin. 670 00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 2: How is it that this price between City and Arsenal 671 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 2: is so different plus one sixty versus five to one, 672 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 2: that's twenty percent imply to odds. 673 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 3: I don't really agree with that. 674 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 2: So yeah, I still think the best bet on the 675 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 2: board is Arsenal. On the other side, it's probably at Letty. 676 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 2: But again, I mean it's of course correlated to the 677 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,640 Speaker 2: two strongest positions I have in the first in this round, 678 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 2: which is that Arsenal is gonna what Byron and Letti 679 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 2: is going to be Dortmund, So I naturally think those 680 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 2: two teams are interesting to me. But yeah, Letty, I 681 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 2: just don't think their defense can hold up. 682 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 3: In a final. 683 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 2: That's that's It's kind of funny that we're saying this 684 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 2: about Letty, But like if they made a final, you know, 685 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 2: I was twenty eight to one, twenty to one, great ticket, 686 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 2: but at twelve to one, it's like, oh, yeah, we're 687 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 2: gonna be a big dog in the final to City 688 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 2: or Arsenal. Arsenal will be interesting, but like City kind 689 00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 2: of think would just break down this defense and win, 690 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:51,239 Speaker 2: but you never know. 691 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:53,880 Speaker 1: It's one match, right, that's the beauty of it exactly, 692 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,200 Speaker 1: and you know that the dark Arts we'll be out 693 00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:02,480 Speaker 1: in full full force for Simeo. Okay, so yeah, the thing, 694 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 1: the thing that jumped out to me was Dortmund just 695 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 1: tells you that the gap between uh Dortmann and the 696 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 1: rest of the field. 697 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:09,600 Speaker 3: Yeah. 698 00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,080 Speaker 2: If Doorman got PSG in the semis like they got 699 00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:13,439 Speaker 2: smoked by PSG in both meeting. 700 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, so how. 701 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 2: Competitive are they in this one? 702 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:16,319 Speaker 3: I don't think that that. 703 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:21,000 Speaker 1: Could Okay, onto Europa League. Any best bets. 704 00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 2: Here some really fun ones honestly at Alanta ticket you know, 705 00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 2: the one team I didn't want, we get that sucks. 706 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 2: Didn't want Liverpool, we got them. You know, I think 707 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 2: that they're catching a goal and a half at anfield. 708 00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:37,759 Speaker 2: It's a full high for me and I have it 709 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,839 Speaker 2: like a goal in a quarter. You know, how much 710 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 2: worse is this at Alanta team than like Chelsea who 711 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 2: just went to Liverpool and got a goal. So I 712 00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 2: kind of think that at Alanta is interesting as a dog, 713 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 2: but I'm much more interested in backing them at home 714 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,000 Speaker 2: in a week. So I'm hoping that it's like two 715 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 2: one and then I can get plus three quarters at 716 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,279 Speaker 2: home and we're gonna hammer time at Alanto at home 717 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,799 Speaker 2: against Liverpool, because look, I know everybody's going crazy about 718 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 2: today's result, where Liverpool kind of tweaked their approach. They 719 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 2: didn't go as aggressive as they were in the FA Cup. 720 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 2: They went a little more, not as press heavy tonight Sunday, 721 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 2: that is, and they dominate the first half, but then 722 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 2: they kind of still gave up a ton of transition 723 00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 2: looks in the second half as they. 724 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:26,759 Speaker 3: Kind of reverted back to it a little bit. 725 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 2: And I just think this Liverpool team away from home 726 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,680 Speaker 2: right now is a little bit dicey, so I don't 727 00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,800 Speaker 2: think they're as good as the market things away from home. 728 00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 3: So I'm going to. 729 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,120 Speaker 2: Pass on that Alanto this week, look to play them 730 00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 2: next week Milan Roma. I think Roma's marginally better and 731 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,200 Speaker 2: I think Roma is a plus a half dog. It's 732 00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 2: the situation where I would take the plus a half 733 00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,400 Speaker 2: on either side, so I may even come back on 734 00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:52,319 Speaker 2: Milan next week. But in the first leg I'm betting 735 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,800 Speaker 2: Roma plus a half minus one fifteen minus one twenty 736 00:35:55,239 --> 00:36:00,239 Speaker 2: against Milan. Trust Roma's defense way more, and I think 737 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 2: this Milan defense has a lot of flaws, So that's 738 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,320 Speaker 2: where I come down on this matchup. Even though you 739 00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,880 Speaker 2: know Milan's second in the table romas in fifth, I 740 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 2: don't think there's a huge gap. 741 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:10,760 Speaker 3: Between the two teams. 742 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,759 Speaker 2: And then that's it for me from official plays. I 743 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,760 Speaker 2: want to take more into Laverkusen to west Ham because 744 00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 2: this one screams first like under to me. But the 745 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 2: west Ham defense is so bad that it could be 746 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,320 Speaker 2: a bit of an issue. Leverkusen is at their best 747 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 2: in Germany. When teams in Germany like the press, they 748 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,399 Speaker 2: come after them and they're good enough in possession, they 749 00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,600 Speaker 2: can find the wing wing back on the outlets, they 750 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:37,359 Speaker 2: just tear apart presses. Well, you're facing west Ham, you're 751 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 2: not gonna get a press. You're not gonna get anything. 752 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,120 Speaker 2: You're gonna sit deep and say good luck breaking us down. 753 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:46,280 Speaker 2: And Frimpong and especially is so good at getting in behind. 754 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,359 Speaker 2: On the one side, Grimaldo comes in late like they 755 00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,440 Speaker 2: have really dominated white areas this year, but that's just 756 00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,000 Speaker 2: going to result in a lot of crosses and I 757 00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 2: don't really know that the numbers like we're gonna get 758 00:36:57,080 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 2: there against this Leverkusen team with West ham h sitting deep, 759 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,040 Speaker 2: I don't know that there's going to be enough for 760 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 2: leverkus and to get to this total, so I like 761 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:07,879 Speaker 2: the under there a little bit in the first leg, 762 00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:12,520 Speaker 2: and then ben Fico Marse kind of uninterested in both teams, 763 00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,400 Speaker 2: so I'm passing there on that one, but excited to 764 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 2: get into your Europa League Beach and now are going 765 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,399 Speaker 2: to do a split column. We're going to break down 766 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,120 Speaker 2: each of the matches a little bit, so we'll have 767 00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,840 Speaker 2: some analysis on that in the app probably Wednesday, and 768 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 2: then a Conference League. Of course, lele on my ticket there, 769 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 2: which I was loving. We also got the toughest team 770 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 2: left in the draw and Aston Villa. But Leil's very 771 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 2: good in possession. They're very comfortable having the ball, playing 772 00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 2: the ball and using their pace in behind, which if 773 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,320 Speaker 2: you've listened to our Premier League shows you know Aston 774 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 2: Villa has struggled against teams who have good ball playing 775 00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,320 Speaker 2: players in the middle of the park, who can spend 776 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,200 Speaker 2: send balls in behind and use pace to exploit their 777 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,279 Speaker 2: very mediocre and continually getting worse defense. I think Villa 778 00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,520 Speaker 2: is a corpse right now defensively, and I think they're 779 00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 2: worth fading like Leal plus one twenty five to get 780 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,680 Speaker 2: a result in the first leg. I think they're I mean, 781 00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 2: certainly a live to advance. 782 00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 1: Okay, that'll do it for us. We'll be back on 783 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:13,680 Speaker 1: Thursday morning to preview another weekend of Premier League matches 784 00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,560 Speaker 1: and take us down the stretch here. It's basically every 785 00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:22,040 Speaker 1: every week Sunday Sunday Wednesday recordings for us until we 786 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 1: get a little bit of a break and then right 787 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,759 Speaker 1: into the Euros. We'll have more in that, as I 788 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 1: keep saying, as we get closer to the tournament. But 789 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:36,479 Speaker 1: until then, it's only six weeks left until the Premier 790 00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:37,319 Speaker 1: League season is over. 791 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:41,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, May nineteenth, we are six weeks away. 792 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:45,200 Speaker 1: Crazy, Yeah, it's great, It's should be a good stretch run. 793 00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 1: I'm just happy that Everden has won for the first 794 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,200 Speaker 1: time since December sixteenth made it a little bit easier. 795 00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 1: But hey, I'm expecting to wake up one morning this 796 00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,720 Speaker 1: week with another points deduction, so we'll see how that goes. 797 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,160 Speaker 1: But that stuff for the midweek show. We'll be back then. 798 00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,160 Speaker 1: Best of luck with your bets on Tuesday Wednesday in 799 00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,600 Speaker 1: the Champions League and hopefully Bjay you're doing well on 800 00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 1: the tables. 801 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 2: Man Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you 802 00:39:20,360 --> 00:39:23,120 Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help 803 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,920 Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred 804 00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:26,440 Speaker 2: Gambler