WEBVTT - Will Future Consumer Tech Still Be Awkward? 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.200 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:15.159 Forward Thinking. Hey there, and welcome to Forward Thinking, the 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:17.599 podcast that looks at the future and says forward this 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:23.120 message onto everybody. I'm Jonathan Stricklin and I'm Joe McCormick. 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:27.120 So hey you too. Hey. You know how in the 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:30.040 past we've done some episodes of this podcast called you 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:33.000 don't see That in sci Fi? I vaguely recall that 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:35.640 we did such podcast. Well, I think we should do 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.159 another one today. Well, I agree, because that's what we 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:43.280 have notes on. This isn't perceptive, this isn't the future 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:47.920 of ants. Did we already do aunts? Oh no, oh no, 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:50.159 I think I just copied my notes from last time. 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:52.200 I don't worry, I'll catch up. I'll catch up. Okay, 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:54.440 you don't see that in sci Fi? As a little 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.360 sub series we do within Forward Thinking, where we take 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:01.000 something that you often see in science fiction and say, 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:02.760 I don't know if that's what the future is really 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:05.720 going to look like, or something you rarely see in 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:07.800 science fiction, or at least don't see as much as 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.920 we think you should, and say, well, why don't they 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.400 have more of that? Right? It's kind of like looking 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:17.399 back at say, the nineteen fifties and reading the descriptions 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:19.440 of what they thought the year two thousand was going 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.800 to be like, and then thinking, boy, were they off, 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:25.320 you know, and then thinking, wait a minute, are current 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:28.839 visions of the future when depicted in science fiction films 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:32.520 could be just as misguided, right, And sometimes that can 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:35.240 be for really fun purposes, like the fact that explosions 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:41.320 are pretty or Jehovivic is pretty, Etcetera. Exploding in space 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:45.640 makes a noise? Is that how you pronounce it Jehovavitch? Sure? 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:51.520 Probably not? Oh no, no, let's keep it whatever it is, 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:55.720 Mila Mia right now, Mila, I have no idea anyway, 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.120 Let's continue. She'll him up again later in the episode. 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:03.040 In the asked, we've talked about stuff like how come 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:06.360 when people speak English five d or a thousand years 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:09.480 in the future, they sound just like people today, Because 0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:12.240 if you didn't have them sound like people today, people 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:14.919 today wouldn't be able to understand your science fiction movie. Joe. 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:18.320 That's an excellent point, Jonathan. Okay, well today we want 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:21.920 to talk about consumer technology. So how many pieces of 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:25.800 consumer technology do you have within reach? Don't ask me 0:02:25.880 --> 0:02:30.040 that question. Joe, it's embarrassing. Well, it's probably a lot 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:32.440 a lot of If you're listening to this podcast, I 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:34.680 imagine you were listening to the podcast on a piece 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.760 of consumer technology, unless it's just wafting through the air, 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:42.280 or a friend listen to it, memorize all the parts 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.639 and is now performing that podcast for you, In which 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:48.160 case call us because that sounds fascinating. I want to 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:50.239 meet your friend. Yeah, But I want to ask you 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:53.000 all a question. So, when you look into a science 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:57.320 fiction movie or science fiction book, how is consumer technology 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:02.399 like computers and how blitz handheld devices, phones, things like that, 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:06.080 How does it seem in those pieces of media. Well, first, 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:09.840 let's let's be specific. We're talking about kind of that 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:13.520 idealistic version of the future, not the post apocalyptic Mad 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:17.160 Max version right right now where everything's wrecked and burned. Sure, 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:21.200 but there's no real consumer technology in Matt Max. I 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:28.440 mean consumer salvage. Yea, it's consumer salvage enough. In futures 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:32.079 wherein there are giant corporations that are hypothetically selling these 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:35.360 kinds of things, it's usually so sleek and so well, 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:40.280 I mean whatever our current definition of the word sleek is, right, well, yeah, here, 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:46.280 here's what I'd say. It's typically sleek, fast, responsive, immersive. 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:49.040 It can anticipate what you want, it's easy to use. 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:54.040 The characters are invariably very comfortable using it. Displays are 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:58.960 really gorgeous. Yes, it's like the technology becomes an extension 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:02.200 of the characters. Right, There's there's never that moment where 0:04:02.200 --> 0:04:07.080 a character picks up that floating that floating display that 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.960 doesn't appear to be made of anything, and they're about 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:11.880 to zoom in on something and sudding, they get a 0:04:11.880 --> 0:04:16.040 blue screen of death that never happens. Right, That were 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:19.240 you're getting at flash player has crashed. Yeah, right, do 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:21.960 you want to continue this application? Right? You just get 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:24.320 a bunch of pop ups, like can you imagine Minority 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:27.960 Report with just endless pop ups? Minority Report is a 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:30.720 great one because it's a great example that people often 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.560 refer to when they're they're talking about what movies have 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:38.080 really good, probably very realistic, and interesting depictions of consumer 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.960 technology in the future. Minority Report is one of the 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:44.400 most often cited, and they actually did good research going 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:47.880 into that film. They they consulted with lots of people 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.800 in the tech industry. Well, if you see the interface 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:54.599 that Tom Cruise's character interacts with in Minority Report, where 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:56.000 he's got his hands up in the air and the 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:58.559 displays are all floating around and he can swipe stuff 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.440 off the screen. I mean, you can see the user 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:06.400 interfaces and touch screen devices that obviously take inspiration from 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:09.920 that same basic UI design, right, whether it was from 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:14.680 Minority Report or the information that informed the writers and 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:17.960 designers of Minority Report to make sure that it had 0:05:18.000 --> 0:05:21.880 that feel, it's very much a UI that we're familiar 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:24.080 with today. It may not mean that we've got displays 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:27.360 bloating up everywhere, but that same sort of swiping to 0:05:27.360 --> 0:05:30.719 to get things off of a screen, or pinching or 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:33.560 or moving your fingers apart to zoom in or zoom out, 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:37.400 all of that kind of stuff is commonplace now. Yeah. 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.919 Another good example would be Star Trek. Now to us today, 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:43.320 if we watch old episodes of Star Trek, a lot 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:47.560 of the technology might look extremely dated, but it's still 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:51.640 within the universe depicting this kind of very fast, sleek, 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:56.719 very easy to use, comfortable. Uh, it's totally. It works 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.280 all the time, unless there's a plot point in which 0:05:59.279 --> 0:06:01.520 it doesn't work, or if you're on the Holidack, in 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:04.640 which it never works. Right, Right, there's there's a there's 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:07.320 probably a seventy thirty chance that if you're on the holideck, 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:10.400 something's about to go down and the holidack is going 0:06:10.440 --> 0:06:13.359 to try and kill you. Uh. The the interesting thing 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:15.560 about Star Trek is that, again, like you were saying, 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:17.760 unless it's a plot point, the technology just works. And 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:19.800 not only does it just work, but if you ever 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:25.520 pay really close attention, it doesn't make any sense how 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:29.359 how well it works. Because the actors, when they were 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:33.479 not delivering a line, might be staring intently at a 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.479 panel and then pushing buttons like a like a crazy person. 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:39.159 Like they'll be like twenty or thirty button presses to 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:42.400 do whatever task that that person is imagining they are 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:44.560 doing at that time. But then when you see a 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.800 character actually have to do a task, often it will 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:50.839 involve like a single button press. And then you pull 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:54.320 up all of the works of Charles Dickens. Do you think, 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:58.800 why does that panel have a Charles Dickens button? They 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.440 went to the Charles Dickens annel. Yeah, I guess so. 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:04.479 I mean, when you're Patrick Stewart, you gotta have the 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.640 complete words of Charles. I mean, I'm sure he has 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:10.600 all English literature defined to specific buttons, hot button keys 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:12.560 on the bridge of the enterprosem. He's got to print 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:16.600 out a new copy every time he spills t exactly. 0:07:16.760 --> 0:07:20.880 It's just Charles Dickens. Yeah. You also put a note 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:23.200 about Wally. I thought that was a great example. Now 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:27.160 obviously not the Junkyard of Earth, but this spaceship out 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:31.000 in space, Ferry Apple inspired spaceship out there where where 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:34.200 technology has reached the point where it's catering to every 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:38.480 single need, so that humans are essentially subservient to the technology, 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:42.080 not not in a a overlord kind of way, but 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:46.240 in a like but not. They don't realize that they 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:49.240 have willingly given up that agency. I think. I think 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:53.480 we're debating the plot of Wally, but seriously, those care 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:56.680 moral of this podcast. If you don't realize it's tyranny, 0:07:56.720 --> 0:08:00.000 it's not, but it's they've they've given up their age 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.320 and willing. They're not. They're not, and it was terrible 0:08:03.400 --> 0:08:05.880 for all of them at the end. Trichy is a 0:08:05.920 --> 0:08:08.640 word that you use when you realize how badly off 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:13.840 you are. They don't point like a benevolent dictator, Well, 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:17.840 I want to transition to talking about why we think 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:20.920 the future of technology might not necessarily look like that, 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:26.040 where all pieces of consumer tech are very fast, sleek, sexy, 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:30.160 and perfect, where a lot of the frustrations we have 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:33.640 with technology today you might very well continue to see 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:37.560 even in the future, far down the line of technological development. 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:39.480 So one of the first things I think we should 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:43.839 talk about is this concept in computing performance known as 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.240 Pages law right and Pages law is kind of an 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:52.440 inverse of Moore's law. Moore's law being the idea that 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:55.320 that the number of transistors that engineers can cram onto 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:58.400 an integrated circuit is going to double at a steady rate, 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:00.560 like every year and a half or so, right and 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:04.840 by now we kind of suggest that that means the 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:09.120 processing power itself doubles at that rate, because it may 0:09:09.160 --> 0:09:12.679 not be an actual doubling of the transistors every eighteen 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.800 months these days, but engineers are finding better and better 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:19.840 ways to create architecture so that the processing power in 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:23.240 effect doubles every eighteen months or so, the practical effect 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:27.080 being that your computer hardware, your new computer hardware, is 0:09:27.120 --> 0:09:30.160 faster every eighteen months twice as twice as fast as 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:32.920 the as the hardware that existed eighteen months previously. Yes, 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.319 of course, the user experience is not determined solely by 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:38.920 what the hardware can do, because the hardware has to 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:43.840 run software. That's where they get you exactly. That is 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:46.240 where they get you. So at a Google Developer conference 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.640 in San Francisco in two thousand nine, the Google executive 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:53.520 Sergey Brin coined the term Pages law, which is sort 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.640 of the inverse of Moore's law, and it's also been 0:09:56.679 --> 0:10:00.520 referred to as Worth's law. Worth with NYE. Worth. Actually 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:04.480 the terminology their predates pages law, but pages law is 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:08.360 essentially a synonym, and it was a popularization for it, 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:09.640 and it was kind of a little bit of a 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:13.040 joke the way that it was presented at this conference. Yeah, 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:17.040 but the idea is, every eighteen months software becomes twice 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:21.240 as slow. So as your hardware becomes twice as fast, 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.760 the software you run on it takes twice as long 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.400 to run. I assume this was a dig at Larry Page, 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:31.240 the co founder of Google. I'm sure it was, Yeah, 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.520 some harmless jest. This law is obviously kind of a 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:38.719 humorous it's it's not like a universal law. Right, we're 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.080 not talking about the laws of thermodynamics, just like Moore's 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:43.640 law is not a universal law. Right. We had a 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.600 whole other episode about a month or so ago, I believe, 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:49.040 wherein we talked about some of the problems that Moore's 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:52.520 law is currently running into with the development of or 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:57.440 with the physical transistors as we know them. Yeah, yeah, 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:00.000 that's right. Moore's law is not a law of physics. 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:03.000 It's sort of a prediction that has turned out to 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:06.760 be very accurate so far, if even self fulfilling. Yeah, 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:09.240 perhaps self fulfilling, right, because if you set out a 0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.760 sort of goal post for the industry, they might just 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.200 work hard enough to go through it. You don't want 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.640 to be an engineer working when you realize you cannot 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.959 meet the goal of making a processor that's twice as 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:26.120 powerful within eighteen months. And say I was there when 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.280 Moore's law ended, Probably don't want to be that. You 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.000 want to be like, no, no, when I was when 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:34.360 I was on I watched UM But but no. I 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.760 think that we've all had this common experience of software 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:42.000 bloat and and and this happens for a couple of reasons. Sure, 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:46.280 feature creep is one thing so when when computers become 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.080 more powerful, programmers want to take advantage of that power, 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:51.680 and so they cram more and more features into a 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:55.400 piece of software. Features in air quotes because they might 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:58.360 not even necessarily be things that you really want this 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.679 program to do, but but sometimes they can be very 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:05.360 helpful and or or pretty well and a lot of people, 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.760 a lot of programmers may be working on software that 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:11.280 they have these gray ideas for what the software can do. 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.920 The problem is that the the hardware as it exists now, 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:18.160 the state of the art hardware that your average consumer 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.040 is going to have access to, would not be able 0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:22.600 to support that kind of software. But software development takes 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:26.120 a lot of time. Sometimes a cycle to develop a 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.640 single program may take long enough so that by the 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.439 time the software is done, there's actually hardware strong enough 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.080 to use it. Now to the end user, it just 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:38.040 seems like the brand new computer is running whatever new 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:41.200 version of the program you have at the same rate 0:12:41.240 --> 0:12:43.440 that your old computer was running the old version of 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.920 the program, because in fact, the software was developed to 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.199 take advantage of all that horse power, or that you 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:52.680 might even need to buy a new computer in order 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.079 to run the software that you really want like the 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.520 number of times that I know when I used to 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:01.440 do some PC gaming, frequently things would come out that 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:05.000 we're just a little bit better than what hardware I had, 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.600 and so I had to swap out different bits if 0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.599 I wanted to play whatever it was, right, right, you 0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:11.240 might need to go out and get a new graphics 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.679 card so that you can run that new version of 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:15.600 A half Life three. Hey, did you guys hear about 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:21.360 halfway three? Me? Neither, because they haven't announced it. That's 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:31.040 sick ber Yeah, I guess. So I have a feeling. 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:32.800 I have a feeling. I'm not the first and I 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:36.760 certainly won't be the last. But it's related to Pages 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:40.440 law or Worth's law. As a there are a couple 0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:43.640 of other similar, kind of humorous concepts, and again these 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:46.480 were kind of meant as tongue in cheek a way 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:50.760 of explaining human behavior, and it doesn't necessarily relate just 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.200 to electronics, but it can also relate to that. One 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:56.839 of those is Parkinson's Law, which is created by C. 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:01.200 Northcote Parkinson h that says that we're will expand so 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.960 as to fill the time available for its completion. So, 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.800 in other words, you could have the exact same task 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.679 and tell one person that you need to get this 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:12.800 done in an hour, and tell another person that you 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:14.960 have six hours to do this, and the amount of 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.840 work that task is going to take will expand to 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:20.080 fill that six hour period for that second person, whereas 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:22.800 the first person will be able to complete in an hour. Um. 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:24.520 This is just one of those things kind of explain 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.600 human behavior, not so much a universal law. Again, same 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.400 sort of thing also can come true in the world 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.840 of consumer electronics in a way, it's it's a little 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.760 bit more of an abstract. There's also the Parkinson's law 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.960 of triviality, which can go into software design. The law 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.840 of triviality states that if you ever get a group 0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:50.200 of people together to discuss an important uh idea important task, 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.840 something along those lines, invariably that group of people will 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:56.400 spend the most amount of time on the least important 0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.200 aspect of whatever that happens to be. Same sort of 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:01.760 thing can happen with software blow, where you'll see people 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:06.640 really focus on things that ultimately may not matter. In fact, 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.560 it may be something that just a tiny slice of 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:12.560 the consumers ever even come to contact with. Those animations 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:16.480 of Clippy are so smooth. That's wonderful, exactly the what 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:18.840 I was thinking in my mind while I was saying that. Meanwhile, 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:24.360 the rest of it's not right. I think Clippy is 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:30.120 coming back. That's prediction I'm waiting for, Like Microsoft Bob 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:34.800 two thousand fifteen, that will be I'll be exciting. Okay, Well, anyway, 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:38.120 It's true that things like Pages law or Worth's law 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.560 or Parkinson's laws, these things are not hard and fast 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:46.920 rules of reality, but they are observations that we laugh 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:51.080 at because they seem to ring very true to us. 0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:54.200 Like this is a very accurate way of describing the 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:59.360 state of technology today, and so it doesn't necessarily hold 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.760 the future to technology will always follow the path of 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:07.760 software bloat. But I can see more reason to believe 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:10.320 that it will than reason to believe that it won't, 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:13.360 because it's been this way so far, and something would 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.320 have to change for it to really overcome this. And 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.240 it's being made by people, right, And these are observations 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:23.720 ultimately about people, not about the technology. The technology itself 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:28.040 is completely separate from this. This is really about our 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.520 behaviors as a species, right, right, that the users and 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:35.680 the programmers of Yeah, the stuff I mean it's it's 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.160 not likely to change now. Well, even if you get 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:41.080 to a point where you say, what if we reach 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.600 a future where machines are making our gadgets for us, 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.800 like we're no longer making them ourselves, but a machine 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:51.560 is designing them. Well, someone made that machine, So you know, 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.480 it may be that there might be several generations down 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.520 that pathway where you get to a point where the 0:16:56.560 --> 0:17:01.040 things that are designed really are perfectly designed for a 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:04.840 human being to perfectly optimize what they're doing. Yeah. So 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.400 that's so that's a completely natural, seamless integration in our 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:10.440 lives to the point where we never have that awkward 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:14.440 moment where you know, something just doesn't make sense to us, 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:17.359 or we have that issue with whatever gadget we're trying 0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:21.360 to make work. Yeah. So what I'm saying in this 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.639 point of the conversation is that even though even if 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:27.199 we don't posit, say the end of Moore's law or 0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:30.879 something like that, and we say that computers and devices 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.320 continue to get more and more powerful, I still think 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.879 in Minority Report, we should be seeing Tom Cruise getting 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:42.560 frustrated with memory problems on his big swipy, sexy sleek 0:17:42.640 --> 0:17:45.320 screens and there should be things that crash and fail 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.119 to load. Right, he should pull he should pull up 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:51.679 a window. Realized, dang it, I I was looking at 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:54.679 Amazon earlier because I needed new shoes, and this is 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:57.719 the Amazon thing. This is totally not that. That file 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:03.320 about that that person who is up out to commit murder. Well, okay, 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:09.080 but even even let's suppose that the technology is perfect, um, 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.080 will all of us be comfortable with it? That is 0:18:12.119 --> 0:18:14.439 a great point. That's sort of the compliment to the 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:17.720 point we were just talking about, because yeah, you can 0:18:17.760 --> 0:18:21.399 look at one of the most easy to use, beautiful 0:18:21.440 --> 0:18:25.159 pieces of technology ever made, and some people will still 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.119 have a lot of trouble figuring out how to use it. 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.240 They're just not comfortable with the new tech. That's sort 0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:35.320 of a fundamental feature of human nature is that it's 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:38.560 hard to adapt to new things. Are you Are you 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:43.240 talking about old people? No, I am not talking. I'm 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:45.280 the oldest person in this room. I'm getting a little 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:48.240 sensitive here. I'm not talking. No, it doesn't. In fact, 0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:51.639 though I don't know. Age maybe correlated with this issue. 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:54.600 We may talk about that in a minute. But you 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:58.280 can be anybody and have trouble adapting to interfaces that 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.840 you're not used to using. I think one thing that 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.600 we should see more in science fiction is people being 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:08.680 less at home with their consumer technology that I can't 0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:13.840 think of a film that's not satirical in nature where 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:17.680 people are just really flustered and frustrated by not knowing 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:20.720 how to work their different interfaces. Well, I think I 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:24.120 think the reason for that ends up being dramatic rather 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:25.879 than anything else. It's it's one of those things that 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:29.359 it would distract from the story. Therefore it's not a component. 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:32.400 Whereas we would say, well, it's not really realistic. I mean, 0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:35.280 your average person would probably have, especially getting something new 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:37.960 out of the box, brand new thing, would probably have 0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:39.920 one of those moments where you know, you toss the 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:43.600 instructions away because you don't need those. But but but 0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.040 it would have been much more realistic, is all. I 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.720 think we're saying to have Tom Cruse have just one 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:58.280 single moment where he went, what's that button? Well, you know, well, certainly, 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.040 I mean, and the point of all the the storytelling 0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:04.000 may not be to go for realism. I understand that totally. 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:05.560 I mean, it might be the same reason you don't 0:20:05.560 --> 0:20:08.680 see characters going to the bathroom and movies that it's 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:11.880 just not interesting to the dramatic storyline. And and as 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:14.960 we've talked about in uh several of these episodes before, 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:17.359 I I accept that point of view, as I just 0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:19.920 think it's worth pointing out. So let's talk about how 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:23.320 people become acclimatized to new technology and how quickly they 0:20:23.359 --> 0:20:26.679 adopt it and become comfortable with it. Sure, and okay, 0:20:26.720 --> 0:20:30.120 part of it may in fact be generational. There there 0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:35.040 has been some research get off my lawn. There's been 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.560 some research out of the Pew Center, which does pretty 0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:41.639 good research about the Internet and technology, UM, indicating the 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.320 tech is changing fast enough these days that it's actually 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:50.000 speeding up generational differences and making smaller age demographics comfortable 0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:54.879 with smaller segments of tech. Uh and UM. There is 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:57.640 an interesting paper kind of to this point by one 0:20:57.880 --> 0:21:01.200 doctor Larry D. Rosin, published in the National Psychologist in 0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:04.680 two thousand four. It was called Understanding the Technological Generation Gap, 0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:09.280 and it pointed out the time frames of previous technological eras, 0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:11.960 which I thought was really interesting, like the agricultural era, 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:15.440 which lasted for some three thousand years, or the industrial era, 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:19.320 which lasted some three hundred or the digital age or 0:21:19.400 --> 0:21:21.159 information age, or whatever it is that you want to 0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:23.320 call it, which has been going on for for a 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.080 mere fraction of that, like thirty to fifty years, but 0:21:26.359 --> 0:21:30.400 has changed intrinsically the ways that most human people interact 0:21:30.480 --> 0:21:34.399 with the world. He generally suggests that we're all adapting 0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.600 more rapidly these days, but that as as generations grow 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:42.199 up experiencing such rapid technological evolution, they're going to be 0:21:42.240 --> 0:21:45.399 able to adapt ever faster. What's interesting is that this 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:51.320 also kind of uh plays into the idea of the singularity, 0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:54.200 this idea that we're having these ages of of of 0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:59.879 technology and they are transitioning ever more rapidly. Now. Of course, 0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:02.239 in the concept of the singularity, you in our an 0:22:02.280 --> 0:22:05.720 age where change is the definition of that era. There's 0:22:05.760 --> 0:22:09.320 no consistency from one moment to the next. Whether that 0:22:09.400 --> 0:22:12.159 ever happens, well, we've done some episodes about it, so 0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:15.040 we don't need to go into it here. Uh and 0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:17.679 and other research kind of does disagree with with the 0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:21.400 concept that we're building towards sub kind of weird superhuman 0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:24.240 generation like that. There was a critical review of the 0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:27.080 literature that was published in the British Journal of Education 0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:30.480 Technology in two thousand and eight called the digital natives bait, 0:22:30.840 --> 0:22:33.840 and it indicated that the differences aren't so much a 0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:38.840 generationally informed as they are socioeconomically informed, which, of course 0:22:39.000 --> 0:22:42.280 is is the money and social structure kind of sides 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.359 of this. And the others even went so far as 0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.879 to compare the the idea that digital natives, these people 0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:53.159 who have grown up with tech being intrinsically different, to 0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:56.280