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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Thomas Biola and it is time for the PGA

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Speaker 1: Championship at Southern Hills in Tulsa, Oklahoma. So today to

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Speaker 1: help us break it all down, we have Action Networks

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Speaker 1: Josh Perry joining us. Josh, how are you doing today?

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Speaker 2: Pretty good? Just ready for another major like everyone else

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Speaker 2: up there. It's a good time, that's right.

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Speaker 1: And right off the bat. One of the things that

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Speaker 1: we were talking about right before we came on air

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Speaker 1: here you mentioned the majors are a little bit easier

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Speaker 1: to handicap. Why is that?

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Speaker 3: I mean, you just have more time with them. You

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Speaker 3: have time to look at the course. You know what

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Speaker 3: the numbers are. I mean, you got months that looking

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Speaker 3: at odds. You can pick off a few guys early

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Speaker 3: here or there if you think they're gonna draw, rather

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Speaker 3: than just kind of jam everything into three days and

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Speaker 3: hope it works out.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, there's just more time. You can be a

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Speaker 2: little more.

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Speaker 3: Patient and wait and things get things early, and it

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Speaker 3: just kind of gives you a bit of an edge

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Speaker 3: if you're paying attention that much.

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Speaker 1: That makes perfect sense to me, that quick three day

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Speaker 1: turnaround you have where a normal tournament ends on Sunday

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Speaker 1: and then by Wednesday you've got to have all your

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Speaker 1: bets in and be ready to go, right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, it's the more time you get, the better

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Speaker 2: it is.

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Speaker 3: If they give some advanced stuff all the time, it'd

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Speaker 3: be it'd be pretty easy for some of these tournaments.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, now the majors give you that chance, and

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Speaker 3: we've been able to hit I know a lot of

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Speaker 3: people were on Chefler pretty early. He hit Phoenix and

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden ground and then that number dropped.

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Speaker 3: He was a thirty five to forty to one for

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Speaker 3: the Masters, and then by the time you get there,

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Speaker 3: he's twelve to one. So you can kind of see

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Speaker 3: where the where the value would be if you can

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Speaker 3: pick off some of these guys early on.

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Speaker 1: Exactly, it is important to have that look ahead that

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Speaker 1: the majors give you where you can you can grab

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Speaker 1: the number before it starts to really fluctuate. But at

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Speaker 1: this point where we sit here, we're headed into Southern

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Speaker 1: Hills this week, and John Rohm is actually gonna be

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Speaker 1: the favorite at most places. Scotti Scheffler is somewhere around

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Speaker 1: the same neighborhood, but a lot of shops. What we're

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Speaker 1: seeing is eleven to twelve to one on Rom. Here.

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Speaker 1: Phil Mickelson the defending champ. Obviously he's not going to

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Speaker 1: be around to defend his title here. And the last time,

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Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken, we had a PGA Tour winner

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Speaker 1: at this course. It was Tiger Woods way back ten

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Speaker 1: years ago or so. But Rom the favorite right now?

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Speaker 1: What do you think of him? Do you think that

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Speaker 1: people are the numbers just wrong to bet him at

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Speaker 1: this point? Where do you think he stands personally?

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Speaker 3: I don't really go after the top top guys. It's

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Speaker 3: just doesn't fit with my overall betting thing. I can

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Speaker 3: see why people would do it, and with Rom it

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Speaker 3: and honestly might not be a bad idea if he

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Speaker 3: want to go that way just because he got.

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Speaker 2: The win in Mexico, so he's not really He kind

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Speaker 2: of got that off.

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Speaker 3: His shoulders a bit there. He's got one on the board.

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Speaker 3: He can kind of relax a touch and kind of just.

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Speaker 2: Go out there and play. He's not worried about everything.

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Speaker 3: Where you're in a spot where you haven't won and

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Speaker 3: you're trying to go into a major with that sort

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Speaker 3: of pressure on you you can just kind of go

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Speaker 3: un done.

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Speaker 2: And he's a major champ.

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Speaker 3: You got to win him recently, and so a thing

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Speaker 3: that's starting to click up a bit. Obviously it wasn't

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Speaker 3: like a super strong field in Mexico, but sometimes.

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Speaker 2: That's just what these guys need to get rolling a bit.

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Speaker 3: And I mean, like I said, I don't bet the numbers,

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Speaker 3: but I can understand if somebody just wants to go

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Speaker 3: place one bet and they put it on wrong and

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Speaker 3: kind of move forward.

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Speaker 1: And honestly, at eleven or twelve to one, yeah he's

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Speaker 1: the favorite, but you're still getting a decent return on that.

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Speaker 1: I can understand if someone likes to do that too.

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Speaker 1: But you said you don't really bet the numbers. You're

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Speaker 1: more into betting the golfers. What are some of the

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Speaker 1: golfers that you actually like out there this week?

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Speaker 3: I'm kind of looking more at iron play and scrambling stuff,

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Speaker 3: So if you're wanting to go to the top, I

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Speaker 3: didn't bet him, but I'll probably have him some like

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Speaker 3: drafting stuff like Mori Kala types where they put the

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Speaker 3: driver in play they can kind of keep it out

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Speaker 3: of the rough. And then a lot of iron play

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Speaker 3: and hit these tough greens to a lesser extent, guys

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Speaker 3: like Keegan Bradley, who's played well recently, similar type of mold,

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Speaker 3: obviously not to quite the level of Mori Kala, but

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Speaker 3: a similar game style I went with other guys like,

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Speaker 3: I mean, Fitzpatrick's been playing really well. I think he'll

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Speaker 3: he'll show up decently here and that type of mold

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Speaker 3: the middle tiers is kind of interesting because I think

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Speaker 3: that's there's a good chance the winner can come from

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Speaker 3: there because it's not overwhelmingly favoring the bombers this week.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of more well rounded, and that's kind of

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Speaker 3: where we see the more well rounded guys a lot

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Speaker 3: of the times is in that middle range there. The

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Speaker 3: thirty three is the fifty high range. So that type

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Speaker 3: of players what I'm kind of looking at.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is more of one of those courses. And

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Speaker 1: we'll get into it in a little bit on the

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Speaker 1: attributes of the golfers where you're not necessarily looking for

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Speaker 1: that guy who has the five hundred yard drive to

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Speaker 1: come out on top in this one, especially with the

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Speaker 1: wins here, But talking about some of those guys real quick,

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Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick, he's at forty five to one right now

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Speaker 1: on draft Kings. Colin Morkwa obviously up closer to the

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Speaker 1: top of the pack, it's sixteen to one, and then

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Speaker 1: you also said Keegan Bradley, he's sixty five to one

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Speaker 1: right now. Now, there's a lot of value there in

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Speaker 1: that middle of the pack. But one of the things

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Speaker 1: that is going to be a major problem for these

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Speaker 1: golfers is the wind that Oklahoma wind on the course

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Speaker 1: Southern Hills. They got rid of a lot of the

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Speaker 1: trees that were around the course lining it and there's

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Speaker 1: less of a shield from that.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 1: The weather forecast says Thursday Friday, expect to see a

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Speaker 1: lot more wind. We could see some rain on Friday, Saturday,

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Speaker 1: Sunday weather is supposed to open up a little bit.

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Speaker 1: How is that going to affect some of these guys

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Speaker 1: out there, and how does that impact your handicapping when

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Speaker 1: you're picking some.

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Speaker 2: Of these guys.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's always tough, especially this early. I mean you

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Speaker 3: kind of got to keep an eye on it. Occasionally

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Speaker 3: it'll get a tee time draw advantage if you're looking.

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Speaker 3: You got to kind of wait till Wednesday night because

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Speaker 3: forecast we all know they can kind of bounce around

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Speaker 3: all over the place. I think it's going to draw

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Speaker 3: more people to the to the local Ish guys, the

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma State guys, the Hobbles and things like that, just

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Speaker 3: because they've handled it before. The Texas guys, Beat's going

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Speaker 3: to draw a lot of action just because of how

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Speaker 3: well he's playing in that. I think it could also

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Speaker 3: a lot of wind. I mean, the euro guys tend

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Speaker 3: to pop up there if it starts to get windy,

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Speaker 3: like an open where like I mean, they have a

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Speaker 3: lot of these greens where there's the runoffs, there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot of scrambling around there.

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Speaker 2: You can see.

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Speaker 3: I've got Shane Lowry from a couple of months ago

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Speaker 3: on the card. It's not something i'd probably bet at

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Speaker 3: like thirty to one, but when he was hanging around

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Speaker 3: in those forty to fifty ranges, that was that was

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Speaker 3: something to interest me. And then I already mentioned Fitzpatrick there.

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Speaker 3: So we see some pop some euro guys pop up

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Speaker 3: there just because of that.

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Speaker 2: That high wind can favor them at times.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that makes perfectly perfect sense. We know, especially

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Speaker 1: in the England area not known for pristine weather conditions

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Speaker 1: for the golfing, you know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, for sure.

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Speaker 3: If they're gonna mix in some rain on there and

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Speaker 3: twenty mile an hour winds like we're seeing, I mean,

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Speaker 3: that's every.

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Speaker 2: Day over there. It seems like so they should. You'd

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Speaker 2: think if there was an edge, they might have.

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Speaker 1: But and you also specifically mentioned Victor Hoblin. I wanted

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Speaker 1: to bring him up. I actually had already hear my

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Speaker 1: notes because I already have a ticket on him at

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Speaker 1: twenty five to one to find him as high as

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Speaker 1: twenty eight. Still he lives in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Now obviously

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Speaker 1: he's one of those European guys though, and he's been

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Speaker 1: playing Southern Hills for weeks to prepare right now, do

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Speaker 1: you think that he has a legitimate shot here?

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Speaker 3: I think the concern on it is the scrambling and

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Speaker 3: around the greens. As we've seen, there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: runoffs and everything like that. He's been pretty rough. I

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Speaker 3: think the play with Victor is I don't know if

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Speaker 3: he's Fallow Feinberg at all, Jeff Weinberg, but his play

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Speaker 3: with Victor is to bet him went to win by

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Speaker 3: like three clus at like seventy eighty to one. I

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Speaker 3: think if if Hoblin wins, it's gonna be one of

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Speaker 3: those where he runs away, because it's going to be

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Speaker 3: a week where he's just so dialed in that he's

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Speaker 3: not happing to scramble. He's just hitting every green every

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Speaker 3: right and getting a lot more bird he looks than

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Speaker 3: everyone else, and he's minimizing where he.

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Speaker 2: Can get into trouble.

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Speaker 3: And I think if you're gonna look for a Hoblem play,

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Speaker 3: that's kind of the way i'd go.

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Speaker 2: Is wait for a prop bet on him to try

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Speaker 2: to find him to kind of run away with it,

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Speaker 2: like if.

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Speaker 3: He's gonna if he's gonna win, I don't think it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be one of those tight ones. I think it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be one of those ones where he's just clicking

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Speaker 3: and going and he just hey, like what Rory used

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Speaker 3: to do, and he would win Major by five six shots.

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Speaker 2: I think that if Hoblin is completely ready to go and.

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Speaker 3: Knows where to miss and knows how to manage that

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Speaker 3: short game, I think he could blow it out if

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Speaker 3: he if he.

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Speaker 1: Does win it, And as you mentioned the importance of

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Speaker 1: short game, we actually have another quasi guess here. He's

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Speaker 1: not joining us live but we have Southern hills. Senior

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Speaker 1: caddie Dan Griffin. We got some of his thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the course what to expect out there, and one of

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Speaker 1: the things that he talked about was the short game

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Speaker 1: and the importance of that. Let's hear from him.

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Speaker 4: Now, you're just it's hard to hit greens out here

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Speaker 4: out of the rough because the all the greens are

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Speaker 4: so well bunkered and a lot of shots if you're

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Speaker 4: in the roof, you're gonna have to almost play chunk

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Speaker 4: and run up up to the greens with bunkers like that,

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Speaker 4: you can't do it. And then coming out of the rough,

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Speaker 4: the balls aren't gonna hold, they're gonna go over the green.

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Speaker 4: And each of course all these holes are different. But

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Speaker 4: for example, on number one here you can see the

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Speaker 4: bunkers on the left and that's where they want to

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Speaker 4: hit their taball to come into the green. But if

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Speaker 4: you're if they're in the right rough with a south wind,

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Speaker 4: hitting a shot over that right bunker down here, it's

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Speaker 4: not gonna hold. It's going to run over the green.

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Speaker 4: I don't care. The best pros out there, they'll be

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Speaker 4: very lucky to hit that green. So they're gonna have

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Speaker 4: to kind of chunk it left of that green sided

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Speaker 4: bunker and try to run it up on the edge.

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Speaker 4: And there's a lot of holes out here like that that.

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Speaker 4: If you're in the rough, good luck hitting the green.

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Speaker 4: So they're gonna have to have their best short games

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Speaker 4: out here if they're going to want to score on

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Speaker 4: a halfway windy day.

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Speaker 1: Dan Griffin, he's been the senior caddy at Southern Hill

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Speaker 1: since nineteen fifty nine, a whole lot of experience there

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Speaker 1: with Thank him for taking a couple of minutes to

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Speaker 1: talk to us and answer some questions. But like he said,

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Speaker 1: the short game, it is going to be so important.

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Speaker 1: How does that come into play? Who are some of

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Speaker 1: the golfers that you think might really be able to

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Speaker 1: take advantage of the scrambling.

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Speaker 3: Scrambling wise, I mean Cam Smith was another guy I

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Speaker 3: targeted a few months ago. Again probably not going to

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Speaker 3: bet into like twenty to one when he was in

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Speaker 3: that forty range. I think he could pop up well.

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Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick again is a I think I've said him three

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Speaker 3: or four times now, but I like him this week.

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Speaker 3: As far as the course fit style goes, I mean

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Speaker 3: everyone's going to go to speed if he's not missing

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Speaker 3: the pork footers that kind of cost him yesterday. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it fits those type of guys. I mean, we've seen

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Speaker 3: him around the greens, a decky, sneaky around the greens.

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Speaker 2: People think of him as a bad putter, but that

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Speaker 2: doesn't translate to a short game. He's actually really good

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Speaker 2: around the greens and then sometimes just missing the four footer.

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Speaker 3: But he's usually the reason why we see him miss

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Speaker 3: so many four footers is because he's chipped it to

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Speaker 3: four feet three feet every time from some tough spots

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Speaker 3: or ease of the.

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Speaker 2: Irons are so.

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Speaker 3: No, it's those type of guys, and I mean the scrambling.

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Speaker 3: If the greens are small and they have runoffs, it's

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Speaker 3: gonna matter. And that's one of the things where we

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Speaker 3: don't always wait it too high around the greens because

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of tournaments where if you're missing too

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Speaker 3: many greens and you're scrambling, you're.

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Speaker 2: Not gonna win anyway.

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Speaker 3: But when you're getting in these tougher weeks where major

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Speaker 3: time and winning score is gonna be eight ten, twelve under,

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Speaker 3: then you got to be able to get it up

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Speaker 3: and down a few times and so those are a

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Speaker 3: few of the guys that seem to pop up each

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Speaker 3: week when you're looking on that.

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Speaker 1: And that's my next question that I wanted to ask

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Speaker 1: you about here when it comes to scoring, what do

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Speaker 1: you think we're gonna see if people were interested in

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Speaker 1: getting into that prop market. Some of those lines not

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Speaker 1: really available yet, but they'll be coming out as time

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Speaker 1: goes on. What are you expecting to see as far

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Speaker 1: as a final score prediction? Do you think that these

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Speaker 1: are going to be low scoring rounds or do you

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Speaker 1: think this might get a little higher.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's always tough to tell because of

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Speaker 3: whether it plays so much of a factors, So it

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Speaker 3: depends on what we actually end up getting. But I mean,

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Speaker 3: if they're gonna play the rough up and they're gonna

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Speaker 3: bake out the greens and then we get twenty miles

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Speaker 3: an hour win, I mean, if you're shooting under par,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna be gaming quite a bit on the field

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Speaker 3: and then it's a par seventy and you got a

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Speaker 3: factor that in as well, So I mean you're missing

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Speaker 3: out on two par five. Par five is that they

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Speaker 3: do have are like massive too. If we're talking to

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Speaker 3: six thirty six fifty, So unless you're cam Champ, it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be tough to get there in two for ninety

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Speaker 3: percent of the field, and if you miss the fairway,

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Speaker 3: there's just no chance.

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Speaker 2: So I mean, otherwise you had driver and three would

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Speaker 2: for a lot of these guys.

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Speaker 3: So there's not the there's not the easy par five

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Speaker 3: birdy opportunities. There are some shorter par four where you're

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Speaker 3: gonna have some wedges in. But I mean we're I

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Speaker 3: mean we saw Tiger win eight. It's obviously been revamped

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Speaker 3: since then. We saw last year at to Jaco one

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Speaker 3: to eight for the Senior Tour, So I mean that

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Speaker 3: that seems to be a target score around here.

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Speaker 2: I would expect it to be high single they did.

305
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Speaker 3: If there's some rain, and it's often some things up

306
00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,040
Speaker 3: we could see low teams twelve to thirteen under, but

307
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Speaker 3: our seventies it's just usually tough to get going anyway,

308
00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,079
Speaker 3: just because you're missing those two extraverdy opportunities at each round.

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Speaker 1: And Dan Griffin actually had something similar. He was more

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Speaker 1: on the low side of it as we can see here.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think it's three to five, really. I think

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00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,120
Speaker 4: three to five if if we like I's telling you,

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Speaker 4: you know, if we get a little bit of win,

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Speaker 4: the green speeds up, the roughs up three to three

315
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Speaker 4: to five. I think it's going to be a really

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Speaker 4: good score. Now if we get you know, calm wins

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00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 4: and soft greens and stuff. You know, they can they

318
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Speaker 4: can blow it out to twelve or thirteen hunderd. But

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Speaker 4: I really don't look for that on this course. This

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Speaker 4: course has always stood up well.

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Speaker 1: Now. Of course, a little of what he said there

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Speaker 1: he was speaking with us before they announced some of

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Speaker 1: the course changes. Some of those distances. The three to

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Speaker 1: five may be a little too aggressive.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's tough.

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Speaker 3: So I mean they get the I mean, and you

327
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Speaker 3: miss that and you can't really go at these greens

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Speaker 3: very easily.

329
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Speaker 2: And then the runoffs are there again, it's gonna come

330
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Speaker 2: down to have the wind plays.

331
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Speaker 3: If you're getting twenty mile an hour winds and one

332
00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:13,760
Speaker 3: under parts, great score on any golf course, it seems like.

333
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's just gonna a lot of it's weather dependent.

334
00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,720
Speaker 2: It depends on what they get. Like you said, I.

335
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Speaker 3: Mean, it could be three to five if we get wind,

336
00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 3: if we don't, if it kind of dies down like

337
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 3: it might on Saturday Sunday a little bit and there's

338
00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,240
Speaker 3: a little rain in the forecast, all of a sudden,

339
00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,440
Speaker 3: it's not as defense. There's not as much defense out there.

340
00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 3: Guys can shoot four or five under on a day

341
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Speaker 3: and post some numbers and kind of go where it

342
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,480
Speaker 3: might be one of those times where it's you're heading

343
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,200
Speaker 3: at three to four under on the weekend and somebody

344
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 3: shoots sixty six to sixty five and goes out and

345
00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,120
Speaker 3: posts a twelve and walks with it. If they get

346
00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 3: some wind up the whole week, it's gonna be rough

347
00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:51,360
Speaker 3: rough out there.

348
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Speaker 1: Now, you know who we have to talk about. It's

349
00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 1: illegal to do any kind of golf content without bringing

350
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Speaker 1: up Tiger and where you think he's gonna finish. He says,

351
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,520
Speaker 1: the knee feels good. He says that he's feeling a

352
00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,080
Speaker 1: lot stronger than he did it Augusta. How much of

353
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Speaker 1: that can you take it face value? He's seventy to

354
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 1: one right now. He's the seventh most popular bet for

355
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,560
Speaker 1: the public. Because he's always going to be bet by

356
00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,800
Speaker 1: the public. It makes him one of the worst bets

357
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:22,040
Speaker 1: in golf because his odds are so distorted by that

358
00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 1: but we still have to ask, what are you expecting

359
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 1: from him?

360
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 3: I mean, he won him last time, so he knows

361
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:29,840
Speaker 3: what to do around here. I mean, obviously it's a

362
00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,280
Speaker 3: little bit different with the revamp, but I mean you

363
00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:32,920
Speaker 3: got to figure.

364
00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,920
Speaker 2: I mean he should be around on the weekend. I mean,

365
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 2: he made the cud of Augusta.

366
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Speaker 3: This is a this course, I mean isn't as taxing

367
00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,400
Speaker 3: of a walk for him as Augusta.

368
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:45,720
Speaker 2: So physically he should be able to hold up a

369
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:46,320
Speaker 2: little bit better.

370
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,240
Speaker 3: You think he's got another month under his belt of

371
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,520
Speaker 3: rehabbing and getting back into the swing of things, so

372
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:53,320
Speaker 3: you figure samon A wise will be fine.

373
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 2: I honestly think he'll.

374
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,880
Speaker 3: Probably start out it'll probably be fairly similar to what

375
00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,600
Speaker 3: he did it Augusta, or he opened up pretty well

376
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 3: the first day then kind of tapered off. He might

377
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,160
Speaker 3: open up well the first two two and a half

378
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,000
Speaker 3: three days and then kind of taper off. I don't

379
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,160
Speaker 3: have any money on him this time. I mean last time,

380
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 3: they were hanging plus money on him to make the

381
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,800
Speaker 3: cut of Augusta, and that was just a gift because

382
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:15,920
Speaker 3: it's Tiger and Against.

383
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 2: He's gonna miss the cut. Yeah, I bet.

384
00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't see I don't see that type of

385
00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:24,040
Speaker 3: I don't see us getting that type of odds. I

386
00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 3: probably see him hanging like a minus one to ten

387
00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,440
Speaker 3: type situation maybe. And then I mean, you're dealing with

388
00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 3: a situation where we got one hundred and fifty guys

389
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,200
Speaker 3: instead of eighty six. So there's a way, there's a

390
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:35,480
Speaker 3: way deeper field here than.

391
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 2: There is as a masters. So it's one of those things.

392
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 2: He's probably got to get off.

393
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: To a good start to really do anything, because it's

394
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 3: it's hard to see him playing better as the week

395
00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 3: goes on, just until he gets back healthier, if that's

396
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:50,880
Speaker 3: ever a thinking for him.

397
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:53,960
Speaker 1: Now you talked a little bit, and by the way,

398
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Speaker 1: I'm in complete agreement there. I think that we'll see

399
00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 1: him start off strong and then taper off because I

400
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 1: don't feel quite like he's totally back. You know, it's

401
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:05,400
Speaker 1: very hard for him to I don't. I don't think

402
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 1: he's ever going to get back to that point where

403
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 1: he was at in his true dominance. But even just

404
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 1: I don't feel like he's truly back from the injury.

405
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, no, and he probably never will be. It's

406
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 2: just one of those things. Where you Scott's got to

407
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,119
Speaker 2: enjoy that he's out there. I mean, you don't have to.

408
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 3: I mean, we've been watching this. A lot of us

409
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:23,680
Speaker 3: have been watching this for years now. We've all had

410
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 3: chances to hit Tiger Woods. Now is not really the

411
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 3: time to dive in on the betting side of things,

412
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 3: unless they're going to give us a bunch of plus

413
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 3: money again to make a cut, or some weird matchup

414
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,080
Speaker 3: where he's clearly an underdog against somebody he maybe shouldn't be.

415
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, outside of that, it's it's really tough to

416
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 3: dive in at seventy.

417
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 2: To one outside of some some nostalgia there.

418
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 1: So let's let's talk about some of those matchups. I

419
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,160
Speaker 1: don't think, I don't. I know, you don't have much

420
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,920
Speaker 1: on the board just yet. Is there anywhere that you're targeting,

421
00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 1: anywhere that you're looking to go or thinking about for

422
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,639
Speaker 1: a particular line if you can get it.

423
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,080
Speaker 2: I haven't said. Yeah, it's still really for matchups there.

424
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 3: It's kind of one of those things where there's gonna

425
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 3: be some potential edges with the people. I mean, they

426
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 3: always kind of favor the bombers most places there. If

427
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 3: you can find some some of the unknown scrambler type

428
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 3: of guys I want to say, like I mean not

429
00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,919
Speaker 3: unknown obviously with cam but and Fitzpatrick, I've already mentioned them.

430
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 3: They Zudenhope is a guy who might pop up for

431
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 3: me because he's in a similar mold there and trying

432
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 3: to think just just those type of guys where and

433
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 3: then I've already mentioned a guy like Keithan Bradley.

434
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 2: I'm on him as a long shot.

435
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:39,439
Speaker 3: Guy where I mean he I think his ball striking

436
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 3: should set up here as well to where he's not

437
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 3: happened to scramble as.

438
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 2: Much hopefully, and I mean and the thing is too.

439
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 3: Is around the greens, and his putters actually started to

440
00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 3: play better, which is why you're seeing actual results in

441
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 3: him in contention rather than just taking thirty fifth every week.

442
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 3: So some of those type of guys, the guys that

443
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 3: I've kind of already bet out right, I kind of see,

444
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,479
Speaker 3: look around and see if they hang a match up

445
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 3: where they're in the spot with a sky of similar

446
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 3: outright odds, and.

447
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:06,760
Speaker 2: If they hang them, mindus one ten.

448
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 3: I think this guy won the tournament, and I don't

449
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 3: think this guy camp in the tournament.

450
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: I'll take a fifty to fifty shot on them.

451
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 3: But that's usually where I hang out and see who

452
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,480
Speaker 3: my card initial lines up with and see who there

453
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 3: where the matchups are and if they if they hang

454
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 3: it up against the guy that I just don't like

455
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 3: at all.

456
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 1: And so you talk about that, you talk about favoring

457
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,919
Speaker 1: the scramblers over the bombers. Here, what is it about

458
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 1: the scramblers on this particular course. Obviously there is the

459
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 1: wind factor, but they've also shortened the course up a bit,

460
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 1: and that's gonna affect the bomber's advantage.

461
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:39,960
Speaker 2: Right, yeah.

462
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 3: I mean they can always club down and try to

463
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 3: keep it in play, but when you've got a bunch

464
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 3: of par fours that are set to play under four

465
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,080
Speaker 3: hundred yards or under four hundred and fifty yards, it

466
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 3: kind of keeps the field more level. There's not the three,

467
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 3: four or five times where you're playing a par four

468
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 3: that's five hundred and twenty.

469
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 2: Yards or not, and then the and then the par fives.

470
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 3: They've kind of negated it the other way, or almost

471
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 3: nobody can go for it in too. If you're gonna

472
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 3: play a whole six hundred and fifty yards I mean

473
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 3: six hundred and fifty yards into the wind.

474
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 2: If it's the wrong If depending on where the wind.

475
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,439
Speaker 3: Goes, cam Champ's gonna have driver three wood and he's

476
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 3: still gonna have one hundred yards in.

477
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: So I mean, it's one of those things where they've

478
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: kind of leveled it out a bit.

479
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 3: I think it's not necessarily that the Bombers don't can't,

480
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,159
Speaker 3: aren't gonna play well. It's just that they've set up

481
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 3: the course it seems like to kind of neutralize everything

482
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 3: and kind of just whoever shows up with their best game,

483
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 3: whatever they do.

484
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 2: Well, whoever shows up and has their a stuff.

485
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,919
Speaker 3: And can kind of hide the weaknesses for four days,

486
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 3: is gonna be the one who wins it. Rather than

487
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 3: all right, we have seventy six hundred yards at a

488
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 3: par seventy, we can chop this field the twenty bombers

489
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:44,959
Speaker 3: and pick three or four of them and move on,

490
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 3: which is kind of what it on the initial scorecard

491
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 3: when they had it at seventy five.

492
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 2: Seventy six hundred yards that I saw it was kind

493
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 2: of the way I was leaning with it.

494
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 1: So if we wanted to recap some of the big

495
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 1: takeaways here for some casual betters who we're looking to

496
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 1: make some golf picks this weekend. Would it be fair

497
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 1: to say the big things that you want to look

498
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 1: for in this one are go for the golfers who

499
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 1: are more of that scrambler type, kind of avoid the

500
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 1: long bombers. Look into the middle of the pack when

501
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 1: it comes to the betting odds. There's a lot of

502
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 1: value to be found in a larger field like this,

503
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 1: and especially given the course layout and who it's gonna

504
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 1: be favoring again going back to those people with the

505
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 1: great short game, look for the scramblers, and also keep

506
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: in mind for the weather, keep an eye on that forecast,

507
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,119
Speaker 1: and maybe try and wait a little bit to make

508
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: some of your picks.

509
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I mean the tea drop might matter.

510
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: There might be an edge there depending on how the

511
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 3: win's supposed to go, so that always helps. But yeah,

512
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 3: if it kind of comes down to, guys are gonna

513
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 3: have to hit.

514
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: These are small greens. They're gonna be tough to hit,

515
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 2: so you haven't got to have the ball in play.

516
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: There's a creek that runs everywhere, so you just gotta

517
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 3: It's gonna be one of those weeks where you have

518
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: to have it in play off the tee. If you

519
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,439
Speaker 3: don't have it in play off the tee, then you

520
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 3: can't really hit these greens, and you can't hit these

521
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 3: greens and you gotta scramble. Kind of favors those above

522
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 3: average length who can keep it, the precision tide players,

523
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 3: and then they.

524
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 2: Have the iron game deal with it.

525
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 3: If you don't, if you're missing one of those things,

526
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: you're inaccurate off the tee.

527
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 2: You're an accurate the iron. You have to be able

528
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 2: to get it up and down.

529
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 3: And if if that's a weakness, it's gonna be it's

530
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 3: gonna be a long week.

531
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 2: For most type guys.

532
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 1: Josh, thank you so much for joining me today. I

533
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 1: really appreciate it. Before I let you go, I have

534
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 1: to ask point blank, who is it that is going

535
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 1: to be winning this weekend and why is it? John Daily?

536
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: John Daily, he was actually playing good last week and

537
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 3: then gotta be cute, he was. He was up there

538
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 3: in the top ten with the senior majors. They're just strict,

539
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 3: was lighting them up. John Day, Uh, I my top

540
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: guy right now that I bet this week with the

541
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 3: odds that are still out there as Fitzpatrick at the

542
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 3: forty five I think you need to find a fifty

543
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 3: shopping around. But I just think overall his game has

544
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 3: probably been about as consistent nobody else out there. He's

545
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 3: top fifteen, top twenty every single week he's better. I

546
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 3: think people have kind of soured on him just because

547
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 3: they're kind of sick.

548
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 2: Of watching him.

549
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 3: He doesn't ever win, but he's actually a lot better

550
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 3: than he was a year or two ago, as far

551
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 3: as off the t game, as far as his approach game,

552
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: he's longer, he's more accurate, and then he's still scrambling well,

553
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 3: and he's still making putts. It's one of those things

554
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,439
Speaker 3: where and he's said it before, if the scores are

555
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: in that three to five under range, like the caddie

556
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: mentioned there, that fits what he wants to do. He

557
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 3: likes to go out there and grind for pars. I've

558
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 3: kind of said it before. Nobody makes a fifteen footer

559
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 3: for par better than that Fitzpatrick. So if that's the

560
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: week it is, then he's a guy at that number.

561
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 2: I think is a pretty good play.

562
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 1: All right, Josh, thank you so much. Where can people

563
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: find all the awesome your work you're doing.

564
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: Over at Action? Yeah? For sure? Action Network dot com.

565
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 3: You can download the Action app where where we track

566
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 3: all your bets for the PGA or any I mean,

567
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 3: obviously play offs, you're going, NBA, NHL, everything like that.

568
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 3: You can try everything you're doing there Twitter Joshua Perry

569
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 3: twenty two see whatever else I'm doing. Then we'll have

570
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 3: some corn Perry later in the week because nobody's paying

571
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 3: attention to that, so we might find something there, and

572
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 3: uh yeah, it's where I'll be.

573
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,120
Speaker 1: All right, guys. Best of luck out there this weekend.

574
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,919
Speaker 1: You've heard it here. Good luck place in your bets.

575
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 1: May the odds be in your favorite. Thank you so

576
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 1: much to Dan Griffin as well for giving us some

577
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: of his time. Josh can't appreciate you sitting down with

578
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: us enough. It has been a pleasure. Best of luck

579
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: once again, everybody, and we will see you guys next week,

580
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: all right,