WEBVTT - Wall Street’s Predictions for 2026

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This has been a busy stretch for Sam Potter, a

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<v Speaker 2>senior editor for Markets at Bloomberg, And it's like this

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<v Speaker 2>every year. Starting in mid November.

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<v Speaker 1>That's when the very earliest outlooks for the next year

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<v Speaker 1>start to arrive on my desk, coming through email. I

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<v Speaker 1>generally let a little pile build up til I'm ready

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<v Speaker 1>to tackle them.

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<v Speaker 2>Then Sam starts reading, looking for the big themes Wall

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<v Speaker 2>Street strategists and economists and portfolio managers expect will shape

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<v Speaker 2>the year ahead. It's a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, there are dozens and dozens of these things,

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<v Speaker 1>and many of them run to hundreds of pages.

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<v Speaker 2>For years now, Sam has boiled all that down, synthesizing

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<v Speaker 2>how some of the top names and finance are thinking

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<v Speaker 2>about the coming year. The end product is this amazing

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<v Speaker 2>tool you can find at Bloomberg dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>What I try and do is take the top line

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<v Speaker 1>calls and then we piece them all together in the

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<v Speaker 1>feature and we make it searchable. You know, you can

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<v Speaker 1>filter buy the financial institution, or by the topic, or

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<v Speaker 1>buy the asset, and it allows you to compare and

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<v Speaker 1>contrust all the different calls.

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<v Speaker 2>Sam identifies each firm's base case for the economy and

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<v Speaker 2>markets and what he's keeping an eye out for are

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<v Speaker 2>high conviction calls.

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<v Speaker 1>Lots of them are very much they sit on the fence.

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<v Speaker 1>They say, well, this could happen all that conviction. We're optimistic,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're at risk. Or you get these ones that

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<v Speaker 1>try and be creative and thematic, and they will say,

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<v Speaker 1>here are the top five trends that we think will

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<v Speaker 1>shape humanity in the year's ahead. They are ultimately their

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<v Speaker 1>marketing tools, but some of them can be super interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>either super bullish or super bearish.

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<v Speaker 2>It may not surprise you, given how twenty twenty five

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<v Speaker 2>shaped up, that the biggest theme for twenty twenty six

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<v Speaker 2>is artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing it sort of leapt out of me in

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<v Speaker 1>this year's outlet was this idea that everyone on Wall Street,

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<v Speaker 1>or seemingly everyone in Wall Street, is bullish about AI.

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<v Speaker 1>They talk of it as a game changing, revolutionary technology,

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<v Speaker 1>but at the same time, the biggest risk that most

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<v Speaker 1>of them see is that the AI investment cycle is overhyped,

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<v Speaker 1>that we could be in a bubble and that things

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<v Speaker 1>could turn ugly.

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<v Speaker 2>And it wasn't lost on me as I talked to

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<v Speaker 2>Sam about all the work that went into this project,

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<v Speaker 2>that maybe AI, the technology that led markets to record highs,

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<v Speaker 2>could have made his job a lot easier.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually, in the end, I made a point of not

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<v Speaker 1>using AI for this. I used the same method that

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<v Speaker 1>I was using seven years ago, which means possibly I'm

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<v Speaker 1>inserting my own bias and misfunctioning brain instead of AIS.

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<v Speaker 1>But at least it's consistent over the years.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm David Gerat, and this is the take from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>News today on the show, From AI to Geopolitical Risks

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<v Speaker 2>to Gold What Wall Street expects for twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 2>We're at this moment where more investors seem to be

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<v Speaker 2>questioning or thinking differently about AI's growth, in particular, how

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<v Speaker 2>much money is being poured into the infrastructure that power

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<v Speaker 2>is AI. How does Wall Street see that playing out

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty six?

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<v Speaker 1>On balance, they lean on optimism here. Most of them

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<v Speaker 1>see the transformative power of AI changing the way we work,

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<v Speaker 1>changing the way we innovate, boosting productivity. They also look

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<v Speaker 1>at the expenditure and say, well, who's paying for all this?

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<v Speaker 1>And in many cases, these multi multi billion dollar deals

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<v Speaker 1>that we see hit the headlines. The company behind them

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the tech megacaps, you know, heavily cash rich.

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<v Speaker 1>They can afford to make this expenditure until they see

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<v Speaker 1>returns on it. And these tech megacaps, their earnings are

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<v Speaker 1>still super solid. It's not like the dot com where

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<v Speaker 1>the firms that were throwing out these huge deals didn't

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<v Speaker 1>really have earnings potential, were very concentrated. You know. The

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<v Speaker 1>Magnificent Seven are highly diversifized companies with massive earnings potential.

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<v Speaker 1>So a lot of Wall streak takes comfort from that,

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<v Speaker 1>and it sort of backs them into thinking that this

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<v Speaker 1>AI expansion is going to be sustainable for the near

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<v Speaker 1>future at least.

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<v Speaker 2>Are there any outliers of note, anyone who is calling

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<v Speaker 2>this a bubble?

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<v Speaker 1>Definitively, there's not an awful lot this year. There's not

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<v Speaker 1>an awful lot of kind of outlier that firms Vanguard

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<v Speaker 1>springs to mind. They're very cautious on the valuations currently

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<v Speaker 1>being quoted for the Magnificent Seven. They're worried about it.

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<v Speaker 1>But even there they say, we think that market's over concentrated.

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<v Speaker 1>We think these companies are potentially overvalued, but we don't

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<v Speaker 1>recommend you get out of AI investing instead, look for

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<v Speaker 1>the second order, so the company is the ones who

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<v Speaker 1>will benefit from AI, or look for the infrastructure investments

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<v Speaker 1>that are tied in with it.

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<v Speaker 2>Twenty twenty five was this year in which so much

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<v Speaker 2>focus was on in so many of the returns came

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<v Speaker 2>from just a handful of stocks. It's also true of

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four. I should say, all the while, there's

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<v Speaker 2>been this conversation, this persistent conversation in the background about

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<v Speaker 2>whether this market is going to broaden out, the need

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<v Speaker 2>for it to broaden out. As these strategists look ahead

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<v Speaker 2>to twenty twenty six, is there any confidence that is

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<v Speaker 2>going to happen?

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<v Speaker 1>They certainly think so. A lot of the recommendations are

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<v Speaker 1>AI is not a bubble, or it's not yet a bubble,

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<v Speaker 1>but given the valuations and the market concentration surrounding the megacaps,

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<v Speaker 1>it may be time to diversify and bind. Diversify they

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<v Speaker 1>mean look for the sectors that are going to really

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<v Speaker 1>benefit from implementing AI. Look at where this expenditure is going,

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<v Speaker 1>so in infrastructure and data centers. So these outlooks are

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<v Speaker 1>telling us get ready for this market to broaden out.

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<v Speaker 1>But would just point out, this isn't the first year

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<v Speaker 1>we've heard that, and probably not the second year we've

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<v Speaker 1>heard that. Either. I was interested to write the summary

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<v Speaker 1>section for AI, and as I wrote it, I was

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<v Speaker 1>actually in the on the back end in the system

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<v Speaker 1>we use. I was deleting the old one from last year,

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<v Speaker 1>and the old one from last year was talking about

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<v Speaker 1>we expect the gains of AI to broaden out into

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<v Speaker 1>more sectors, and you look for the winners from AI.

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<v Speaker 1>So it seems like we're still waiting for that broadening

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<v Speaker 1>out and for those sectors to really adopt and apply it.

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<v Speaker 1>So a good question is whether in a year's time

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to be having a very similar conversation to this,

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose.

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<v Speaker 2>So what about other risk gas That's something stocks commodities.

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<v Speaker 2>Does Wallstreet expect they're going to continue to climb?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, mostly again off the back of the AI boom

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<v Speaker 1>and the frenzy around that. Plus we have very fiscally

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<v Speaker 1>loose governments. Plus we have central banks leaning towards easier

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<v Speaker 1>policy in most major geographies. All of these things are

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<v Speaker 1>seen as a tailwind for risk assets. So while no

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<v Speaker 1>one's predicting huge double digit returns this year, everyone seems

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<v Speaker 1>pretty confident that you're better off being invested than not.

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<v Speaker 2>Put in that way, I wanted to ask you about gold.

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<v Speaker 2>What do these outlooks say about the prospects for assets

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<v Speaker 2>that aren't risky, ones that are considered kind of more

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<v Speaker 2>haven or safer assets.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, there's some advice to look for new hedges. I

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<v Speaker 1>think one thing noted that given the situation where we've

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<v Speaker 1>potentially got short term boring rates coming down, but very

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<v Speaker 1>fiscally expansive program in government, that means the long end

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<v Speaker 1>yields are going to stay high, so a steeper curve.

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<v Speaker 1>What that can mean is that maybe bonds bonds will

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<v Speaker 1>provide you income, they're not necessarily going to act as

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<v Speaker 1>that hedge against equity risk. So there's talk about where

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<v Speaker 1>you find your hedges. Gold is still up. There seems

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<v Speaker 1>like not many firms want to predict the end of

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<v Speaker 1>gold's upswing.

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<v Speaker 2>We start twenty twenty six with the Federals are still

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<v Speaker 2>very much focused on inflation higher than it wants it

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<v Speaker 2>to be, also very clearly worried about future prospects of

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<v Speaker 2>the labor market. What did you learn say from these

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<v Speaker 2>outlooks about what Wall Street expects from the economy in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, so it's interesting. The FED is definitely a big

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<v Speaker 1>question because they are very much seen caught between slowly

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<v Speaker 1>declining but still very sticky inflation that's way above target

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<v Speaker 1>and a labor market that is sort of feeling the

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<v Speaker 1>pressures of rising costs of tariffs and the political pressure,

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<v Speaker 1>let's face it, from the Trump administration for lower rates,

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<v Speaker 1>and we also have the FED chair set to be

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<v Speaker 1>replaced a number of votes surrounding other members of the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve. On balance, mostly people expect the FED to

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<v Speaker 1>ease a little bit, but the stickiness of inflation will

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<v Speaker 1>mean they can't go quite as far as perhaps Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and the politics want. Economy wise, the various tailwinds mean

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<v Speaker 1>moderating growth, most of them saying growth is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be pretty much in line with the long term trend.

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<v Speaker 2>Another big theme in twenty twenty five was private markets,

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<v Speaker 2>private credit, and a couple of bankruptcies in that space

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<v Speaker 2>that really raised worries that an economic downturn could maybe

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<v Speaker 2>expose troubled companies. We had JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie

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<v Speaker 2>Diamond now famously warning that when you see a cockroach,

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<v Speaker 2>there are probably more that could emerge in the space.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm curious how much ink was spilled about that in

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<v Speaker 2>these outlooks, kind of raising concerned raising quests, thinking about

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<v Speaker 2>sort of the way that private markets are going to

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<v Speaker 2>play a role, a continued role in the economy in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, a lot of them tackle that pretty much head on.

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<v Speaker 1>They see the various you know, the cockroaches. It's pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much contained, to be honest, there's a lot of positivity

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<v Speaker 1>around private market still, private equity and credit, various credit structures.

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<v Speaker 1>I think their argument is that it's a good diversifier,

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<v Speaker 1>that their returns are potentially good, that mostly companies corporations

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<v Speaker 1>are in pretty rude health. It does bear saying, though

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<v Speaker 1>that most of them say, private markets look good, but

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<v Speaker 1>what you need is expertise to guide you through it,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're the ones to give you that expertise. So

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<v Speaker 1>I'm always well aware that the more complicated or obscure

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<v Speaker 1>or hard to invest in the market, the more money

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<v Speaker 1>that Wall Street can make from helping you invest in it. So, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of talk about private markets. They think that

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<v Speaker 1>bandwagon has got some distance to go.

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<v Speaker 2>Yet coming up, How accurate were last year's calls and

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<v Speaker 2>what does that say about how we should look at

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<v Speaker 2>this year's Bloomberg. Sam Potter has done this analysis of

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<v Speaker 2>Wall Street outlooks for seven years in a row now,

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<v Speaker 2>and while he looks ahead, Sam also takes stock of

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<v Speaker 2>how accurate the preceding years outlooks were. So I asked

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<v Speaker 2>him how often Wall Street's predictions pan out?

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<v Speaker 1>That's so hard to answer because so often they couch

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<v Speaker 1>everything and this could happen, this may happen. This is

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<v Speaker 1>what we're worried about. I think if you're in our business,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're in the financial business, what you're probably dealing

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<v Speaker 1>in as much as anything else's ideas, ideas and possibility,

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<v Speaker 1>and oftentimes the audience to these things are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be making their own mind up as well. They're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be experienced professionals, They're going to have their own expertise.

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<v Speaker 1>When I look through them, I'm looking for something, anything

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<v Speaker 1>that jumps out as unique or sticks out about a

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<v Speaker 1>year ahead. And also the common themes when we see

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<v Speaker 1>dozens of reports saying we don't think AI is a

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<v Speaker 1>bubble that lends you some maybe confidence, I don't know,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe we should be worried everyone thinks it's not a bubble.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe that's the contrarian warning sign.

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<v Speaker 2>Sam says. One of last year's most prescient calls also

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<v Speaker 2>involved breaking from the pack.

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<v Speaker 1>We saw that actually in twenty twenty five. One that

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<v Speaker 1>stood out last year BCA were extremely bearish on tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>and they basically in their outlook said, everyone's underestimating Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and what he wants to do with tariffs. It's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be ugly. This is what we think is going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen. And of course come April they were pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much spot on.

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<v Speaker 2>Sam, You've been through this cycle a few times now,

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<v Speaker 2>and every year you start with a stack of calls

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<v Speaker 2>that may look totally reasonable. What sort of things tend

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<v Speaker 2>to upbend them? What are the X factors?

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<v Speaker 1>Geopolitics is always the one that they worry most about

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<v Speaker 1>because it's the hardest to foresee, particularly with Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's a fairly unpredictable guy. In fact, at one

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<v Speaker 1>point that was seen as a deliberate policy that he

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:29.960
<v Speaker 1>would sort of surprise people. But the shocks, Yeah, I

0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 1>think it's not so much shocks they're worried about this

0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:40.560
<v Speaker 1>year as any major shift in trend. So AI maybe

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 1>it's a bubble. Maybe it isn't a bubble. Even if

0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 1>it's not a bubble, if confidence starts to weigh in AI,

0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 1>then it would be it would be like the tanker turning,

0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, it'd be a big mega trend turning and

0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:56.320
<v Speaker 1>in credit and private credit and private markets. If they're

0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 1>wrong and there are more cock croaches than they think,

0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 1>it could bring to an end a sort of long

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:06.640
<v Speaker 1>term trend. If Trump does do something unexpected and there

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 1>is more trade friction and inflation actually starts to increase,

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>a big inflation shock is actually probably that's one of

0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:18.800
<v Speaker 1>the biggest potential tail risks that people say. You know,

0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 1>that's the fat tale. If inflation goes the wrong way,

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 1>then it throws so much other stuff, fiscal monetary out

0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:27.440
<v Speaker 1>of the window.

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 2>We've talked about AI, We've talked about the megacaps, talked

0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:34.880
<v Speaker 2>about this narrow market. When you compare the outlooks for

0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.600
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six the outlooks for twenty twenty five, how

0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.160
<v Speaker 2>much do they have in common? How similar are they

0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:41.680
<v Speaker 2>this year to what we saw last year?

0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>Thematically? Yeah, last year, I remember leading the story part

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.040
<v Speaker 1>of the feature with Trump because he had just been

0:14:49.080 --> 0:14:54.440
<v Speaker 1>re elected, he was set to take office, and that

0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>that kind of overhung everything. Obviously, that's much more if

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you can ever call Trump and I'm quantity, but it

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.480
<v Speaker 1>is much more of a known quantity. Now the tariff

0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:08.680
<v Speaker 1>situation is seen as stable, if not settled, So we've

0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 1>been able to move on from last year, move on

0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 1>a little bit from Trump. I think people also look

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>ahead and see the midterms and think that that might

0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>restrain Trump's excesses a little bit. But there remain some

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>big similarities.

0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:28.000
<v Speaker 2>Before I let him go, I ask Sam how he

0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.479
<v Speaker 2>helps people in the industry. Readers and the generally curious

0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 2>will use his tool.

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 1>So I think that such as the volume of stuff

0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:42.000
<v Speaker 1>that Wall Street produces for the year ahead and so

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:46.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of disparate, I don't think people have the time

0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.360
<v Speaker 1>or necessarily the easy access to read it or to

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 1>consume it, or I hope what I do, if nothing else,

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 1>is give them a tool that aggregates and allows them

0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 1>to compare and control, and it allows them to sort

0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:04.480
<v Speaker 1>of fix their place in the Wall Street universe, their

0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:09.320
<v Speaker 1>firm standing alongside others. I'd also hope that if I

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.400
<v Speaker 1>was in the industry, I'd want to be checking it

0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.400
<v Speaker 1>and make sure that I wasn't accidentally in a huge

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:20.320
<v Speaker 1>outlier position with all my money on betting against AI

0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>or something when everyone else on Wall Street feels differently.

0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.200
<v Speaker 2>The show is hosted by me Wanha and Sarah Holder.

0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:36.480
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0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:47.720
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0:16:50.920 --> 0:16:54.960
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0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:56.120
<v Speaker 2>We'll be back on Monday.