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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire.

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Speaker 2: What is up straight Fire? Bam, It's me Jason MacIntyre.

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Speaker 2: Straight Fire for Thursday, November the thirteenth. We have a

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Speaker 2: big four days of rain coming out here to southern California.

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Speaker 2: It is shocking, you know, this is you know, getting

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Speaker 2: to be fall for southern California.

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Speaker 3: But I did not anticipate this kind of rainstorm. Folks.

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Speaker 3: We rarely get rain here.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing sixty percent chance of rain today, one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent Friday.

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Speaker 3: That's unheard of in La.

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Speaker 2: Ninety five percent Saturday, eighty five percent Sunday, sixty five

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Speaker 2: percent Monday. It's just gonna put such a crimp in Mistyle.

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Speaker 2: How am I gonna walk my dog in the rain.

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Speaker 2: He don't wear the raincoat, but he's not a fan

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Speaker 2: of raincoats.

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Speaker 3: Oh, I'm not looking forward to the ring.

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Speaker 2: But you know what, it could be worse, could be stowing,

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Speaker 2: could be thirty degrees.

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Speaker 3: At least it's not that bad.

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Speaker 2: Uh. We got a great podcast today, great guest ta

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Speaker 2: to kick off the weekend. If you are hanging out

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Speaker 2: and on weekend Thursday, Friday, Saturday, you kind of have

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Speaker 2: to harken back to my college days. Out on Tuesday, nights,

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Speaker 2: out on Thursdays, not really Fridays, Saturdays, popping off. It was, oh,

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Speaker 2: those were the days. But now you know, you just

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Speaker 2: have to settle for men's league basketball games. So we

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Speaker 2: lost the championship Tuesday. I don't really want to talk

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Speaker 2: about it. We were underdogs. The size was just too much.

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Speaker 2: There'll be a video I post on IG. Yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: that nerd who convinced the other GM, hey, we should

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Speaker 2: hire a videographer to get video of the game. And

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Speaker 2: so you know, if you go to my ig, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, a day or two, whenever the guy sends

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Speaker 2: a video, we will, we'll have a little some footage.

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Speaker 2: I had a big time three.

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Speaker 3: It was awesome.

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Speaker 2: It helped cut into their lead and ultimately they just

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Speaker 2: decide went out. So I have another one tonight and

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Speaker 2: if I go, oh in to this week, guys, I'm

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Speaker 2: just no questions please, I'm gonna have to shut it

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Speaker 2: down for a minute. Anyways, the podcast, Yeah, so my

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Speaker 2: main man Ta drops by breaking down all the week

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Speaker 2: eleven NFL games, NFL futures, as well as Survivor. Yes,

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Speaker 2: as as long as we're alive in survivor. I will

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Speaker 2: continue to talk about it. I planned to start with

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Speaker 2: like a little rant about Lakers Thunder. I was expecting

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Speaker 2: a good game last night and it was rotten. Okay

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Speaker 2: See was up thirty two and a half. And I

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Speaker 2: know the Thunder runner back to back, But does it

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Speaker 2: really matter when like your roster is like twenty four

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Speaker 2: year olds. Okay See was a juggernaut. They destroy the Lakers,

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Speaker 2: They embarrassed the Lakers, they ran.

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Speaker 3: Them off the court.

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Speaker 2: Lakers are on their third game of a five game

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Speaker 2: road trip, and they looked old and tired. The weird

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Speaker 2: part is they looked old entire, but they're not that old.

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Speaker 2: They're older than the Thunder but that's not saying much.

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Speaker 2: When Lebron comes the back, they'll obviously be old. But

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Speaker 2: you could see that OKC plays relentless defense ninety four

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Speaker 2: feet and they just throw waves of guys at you.

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Speaker 2: That's the new thing. By the way, if you guys

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Speaker 2: are paying attention to the NBA full court pressure, I

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Speaker 2: mean I think they basically stole that from my men's

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Speaker 2: league teams out here in la Is.

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Speaker 3: I'm all full court pressure all the time.

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Speaker 2: Just wear them down and Luca It is just annoying

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Speaker 2: when you have a pest just bothering. You're not necessarily

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Speaker 2: going for steals. You're just up in them, not giving

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Speaker 2: them a free walk into the offense. And next thing

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Speaker 2: you know, they got to give the ball up, they

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Speaker 2: got to get across the half court. Then they got

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Speaker 2: to give the ball up, get it back, and now

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Speaker 2: it's like eight seconds left on the shot clock, and

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Speaker 2: they're starting to initiate offense. And that's like what everybody's

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Speaker 2: doing now. It's smart anyways, okay see is relentless at it,

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Speaker 2: and they just run the Lakers off the floor. La

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Speaker 2: you know, two new starters and smart and eight and

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Speaker 2: they got Jake Laavia And it's fine. When you've got

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Speaker 2: those guys going against ninety five percent of the league,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna be okay against this OKC team. Their top

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Speaker 2: eight guys who played are all returning from last year's team. Now,

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Speaker 2: Mitchell didn't play a ton, but he's just been a

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Speaker 2: flamethrower to start this season. Young twenty three year old

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Speaker 2: kid out of UCSB. I'm looking at last year's game

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Speaker 2: log and he played sparingly in the finals, a little

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Speaker 2: bit in the playoffs and Essentially, they just have like

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Speaker 2: such a great farm system where guys at the end

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Speaker 2: of their bench can play. Isaiah Joe. I mean, he's

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Speaker 2: a top seven guy on most teams in the league,

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Speaker 2: and he's not going to be getting minutes when Ja

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Speaker 2: Dubb comes back. So OKC, Yes, they are a juggernaut

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Speaker 2: right now, they look awesome. All power to them. They

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Speaker 2: have a deep, deep roster. Things are looking good for OKAC.

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Speaker 2: All right, without further ado, let's get to my guy

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Speaker 2: talks to NFL clev Ta.

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

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Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio

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Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to

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Speaker 1: and live. You know a guy, Jason likes to think

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Speaker 1: he knows everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 4: I know what sports fans.

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Speaker 1: Want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy

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Speaker 1: who does.

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Speaker 4: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 4: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome back one of the most popular

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Speaker 2: straight fire guests. He is clev Ta from the genius

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Speaker 2: website clev Analytics.

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Speaker 3: I'm on the air every day, Ta.

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Speaker 2: How we doing.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? Jason there's no way I'm one of

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Speaker 4: the more popular guests.

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Speaker 2: No, no, no, seriously, people love your stuff. Man. Also

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Speaker 2: there's the air of mystery, you know, who's why is

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Speaker 2: this guy not use his name? You know that's a

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Speaker 2: very like twenty ten thing to be anonymous. But uh,

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Speaker 2: you have a real job. What can you do? Let's

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Speaker 2: drive right in ta. How is the season gone for you?

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Speaker 2: I struggled at the outset, and I've picked it up

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Speaker 2: in like the last five weeks and things are really

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Speaker 2: kind of starting to pop. I'm seeing the ball well,

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Speaker 2: as they say in the streets.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm in pretty similar boats. So early in the

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Speaker 4: in the season was struggling. But the last I would

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Speaker 4: say month, I've you know, especially sides and totals, I'm

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Speaker 4: really really producing good numbers, and you know, props are

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Speaker 4: hit or miss. I hit a couple of long shots,

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Speaker 4: which are fun, but just you know, generally speaking, the

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Speaker 4: sides and totals have been really good. I did in

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Speaker 4: my in my circle. I was four and one last

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Speaker 4: week in the millions, so that was pretty good. I

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Speaker 4: think I'm I was five and oh two weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: then a two and three and then a four and one.

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Speaker 4: So pretty good stretch here, So hopefully it continues, I'll say,

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Speaker 4: because for full transparency, I don't like to come on.

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Speaker 4: You don't like when people come on and just tout

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Speaker 4: how great their picks are all the time. Like I've

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Speaker 4: had some really good futures picks and my my preview

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Speaker 4: that I talk about every year, but this year I've struggled.

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Speaker 4: I got things really wrong. I was high on the

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Speaker 4: Titans as a sleeper. I was low on the Colts

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Speaker 4: in Seattle. So I've been wrong from that perspective. But

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Speaker 4: you know, is what it is. It can't hit one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent. So as long as my n season numbers

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Speaker 4: are good, I'll be all be happy.

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Speaker 3: It's funny.

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Speaker 2: I was just going through some of my August tickets

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Speaker 2: from when I went to Vegas. I have Titans to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs, to win the Division, Falcons to win

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Speaker 2: the NFC South and NFC those are all torn up.

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Speaker 2: Here's what I want to ask you though, super Bowl Futures.

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Speaker 2: You're the one who gave us last year Eagles over Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: which was just an awesome hit. Let me ask you

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Speaker 2: if you were to bet now into Super Bowl matchup,

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Speaker 2: and I don't even know if they offer that mid season,

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Speaker 2: I had a Bills Niners. I had Ravens, Niners, Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: Rams which could be in play, Rams, Bills which could

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Speaker 2: be in play. Do you like anything right now if

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Speaker 2: you were to pick the super Bowl because we got

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Speaker 2: some wacky number one seeds right now?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we could talk about just playoff projections. I don't.

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Speaker 4: I mean, oh gosh, right now on the spot, I

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Speaker 4: don't have like a super Bowl matchup that I love.

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Speaker 4: I do think Baltimore does have some value, and we

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Speaker 4: could talk about that. But you know that I think them,

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Speaker 4: you know, they're clearly uh, you know, a good AFC contender,

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Speaker 4: just based on how I think the playoffs will in,

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Speaker 4: the seeding will will fall out, They're gonna have some

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Speaker 4: Obviously the first round might be tough, but you know

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Speaker 4: the second and then obviously the title game, you know,

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Speaker 4: could could provide some value. And then the NFC is

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Speaker 4: just so all over the map. I still think that

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Speaker 4: Green Bay no one. You know that they were my

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Speaker 4: pick in the preseason. I had them in Kansas City

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Speaker 4: in my previews, so I do have a ticket both

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Speaker 4: ways on that one. But I do think that everyone's

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Speaker 4: sleeping on them. I know they struggled last week. I

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Speaker 4: think they're gonna get things figured out. They their defense

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Speaker 4: is elite. Uh, they're they're playmakers all over the plays.

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Speaker 4: They actually are surprisingly you know, top ten in defense,

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Speaker 4: but they don't produce any turnovers and a lot of

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Speaker 4: that is just pure bounce of the ball bad luck.

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Speaker 4: So I do think Look, they're gonna get their receivers back.

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Speaker 4: They they they were missing Jayden Reid and Matthew Golden

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Speaker 4: last week Romeo Dobbs was banged up. Like if they

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Speaker 4: can get those guys back to you know, help replace

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Speaker 4: the loss of Tucker Craft at tight end. I think

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Speaker 4: that they're a team you're not gonna want to face

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Speaker 4: in the in the NFC, So you know, I'll go

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Speaker 4: with Green Bay, and then I'll go with the Kansas

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Speaker 4: City in the AFC.

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Speaker 2: Well wait on green Bay, so they the center. It

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Speaker 2: sounds like broken leg. I r for sure may not

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Speaker 2: return this season. And then I'm looking at the PFF

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Speaker 2: grades for their interior offensive line. It's a lot of orange,

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Speaker 2: which is not good. Their tackles are fine, and I

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Speaker 2: actually like them this week against the Giants of Jamis Winston,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know if that's gonna hold up in

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Speaker 2: the postseason. Again, we saw the Eagles bully them. Jalen

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Speaker 2: Carter up the middle. Uh, Seattle has a nasty front.

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Speaker 2: The Rams have a pretty darn good front. Do you

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Speaker 2: think that Packers interior will hold up?

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Speaker 4: Well, look, it's it's definitely not ideal. I think everyone's

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Speaker 4: got injuries now, like you're gonna have to worry about.

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Speaker 4: But like they've got they've got a good quarterback, they

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Speaker 4: got a good run game. Like I said, if they

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Speaker 4: get those weapons back at receiver, I think they're gonna

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Speaker 4: be able to to start moving the football a bit

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Speaker 4: better than we saw last week. I mean they were

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Speaker 4: throwing out I mean Bo Melton went from he got

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Speaker 4: he got moved to cornerback in the off season and

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Speaker 4: he had to play. He was a number three wide

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Speaker 4: receiver on Monday night, like they were. They were really

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Speaker 4: in a buying from that perspective. So again this is

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Speaker 4: this is bending on the comment in terms of getting

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Speaker 4: those weapons back, And again I'm talking about value, Like

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Speaker 4: do I think Green Bay is the favorite? No, But

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at the odds of the NFC. They're fifth

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Speaker 4: right now to win the NFC and I just think,

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Speaker 4: you know, they are from a quality team. You don't

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Speaker 4: typically see a team this good, you know, this talented,

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Speaker 4: that has all the pieces like they got you know,

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Speaker 4: they got a good coach, they got a good quarterback,

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Speaker 4: they you know, they've got weapons, they've got an elite defense,

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Speaker 4: like they've got everything you want. You don't get that

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Speaker 4: very often with a team you know, seeded as potentially five, six, seven.

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Speaker 4: So I just think from a value perspective, if that's

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Speaker 4: what you're looking for, I think that's a team that

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Speaker 4: I I'm fine with backing.

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Speaker 2: Right now, Let's stick with the Packers real quick. So

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Speaker 2: Packs Giants. I know that we've discussed in the past

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Speaker 2: the fired coach team bump. I don't know that it

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Speaker 2: applies here because they're now also changing their quarterback dart

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Speaker 2: in concussion protocol, Jameis Winston will start. He goes from

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Speaker 2: not having thrown a pass all season to now facing

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Speaker 2: an elite defense. I don't think the Giants get to

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Speaker 2: push up the middle defensively to take advantage of the Packers.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's not overwhelming, but I do think the

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Speaker 2: Giants are kind of gonna be a sexy under a

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Speaker 2: chalky dog, if you will, because of the coach bump

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Speaker 2: and the coach fired bump, and Winston people seem to

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Speaker 2: like him. I'm curious Packers seven, is that something you'd

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Speaker 2: you know, be interested.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's not one that I love right now

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Speaker 4: because there's so many variables there. And then also, you know,

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Speaker 4: Packers coming off a loss. If they had won that game,

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Speaker 4: you know, this line would be eight and a half nine,

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Speaker 4: and then that might be a situation where we've seen

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Speaker 4: the Packers play with their food. Like I think, I

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Speaker 4: didn't run the numbers. I just saw this literally a

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Speaker 4: few minutes ago, that the actors are something like oh

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Speaker 4: to seven against the spread, favored by seven or more under,

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Speaker 4: you know, with Jordan Love at quarterback. And it does

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Speaker 4: feel that way because I do think that they do

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Speaker 4: let down in those spots. But you know, this is

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Speaker 4: off a loss, so that might be a little bit

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Speaker 4: different from a motivation standpoint. I just the problem with

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Speaker 4: the Giants, and I like Jamis Winston way more than

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Speaker 4: Russell Wilson. He just he'll push the ball down the

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Speaker 4: field to at least try. I mean Russell can't can't

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Speaker 4: do anything anymore, so at least it gives you a

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Speaker 4: fighting chance, but it can go both ways. He can

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Speaker 4: you know, he might fumble three times or have a

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Speaker 4: couple of pick sixes against that defense. So you know

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Speaker 4: it's gonna be feast or famine with him. But the

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Speaker 4: problem with the Giants this week, they have no wide

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Speaker 4: receivers Darius Slayton, who could you know, could be a

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Speaker 4: potential deep threat with Jamis He's got a hamstring. He

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Speaker 4: didn't practice today, he left the last game. Like who

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Speaker 4: you throwing the ball to? It's Wandell Robinson and Gunner O'shewsky,

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Speaker 4: Like I don't even know who else he's gonna be

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Speaker 4: able to throw the ball to. So that's where you know,

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Speaker 4: I have an issue. I don't I don't think that

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Speaker 4: this number at seven that I'm you know, racing to

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Speaker 4: take the Giant, take the Giants. You know, I do

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Speaker 4: think that it does open up some things, maybe from

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Speaker 4: a total perspective, like because he can throw the ball

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Speaker 4: to the other team and it's very high variance, you

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Speaker 4: might get a little bit more, some more points than

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Speaker 4: expected on both sides. But you know that I think

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Speaker 4: that the Packers' will run the ball all over the

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Speaker 4: Giants one of the worst run defenses the NFL, and

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Speaker 4: they should be getting golden back this week. So yeah, again,

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Speaker 4: gun to the head. I'd probably lay it with Green Bay,

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Speaker 4: but I don't like laying big numbers typically this late

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Speaker 4: in the season on the road, so it's it's a

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Speaker 4: no play for me, all right.

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Speaker 2: There's so many good games this weekend. So Chiefs visit

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Speaker 2: the Broncos. Not only is it Andy reid Off a loss,

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Speaker 2: but it's Andy reid Off a bye. And the Broncos,

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Speaker 2: of course, look like doodoo on Thursday against the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing at DraftKings ninety percent of the spread handle

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Speaker 2: is on Kansas City minus three and a half. And

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Speaker 2: I get it. The Broncos stink boat Nicks's garbage. Everybody

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Speaker 2: loves the Chiefs here, and I mean everybody. I know

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Speaker 2: you like a dog or pass strategy sometimes. But kid,

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Speaker 2: does Denver do anything for you here? Obviously? No certain

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Speaker 2: or you just is it a slam dunk Chief's biggest

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Speaker 2: bet of the season. Blah blah blah.

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Speaker 4: No, not not at all. Again, I don't I haven't

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Speaker 4: done anything with this game. I know the Chiefs to

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Speaker 4: take some money earlier today to bump it up to

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Speaker 4: you know, where we're sitting at four. You know, I

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Speaker 4: think that's that's probably about right. I think bo Nicks

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Speaker 4: has shown this has been week after a week that

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Speaker 4: against any defense with a pulse, these struggles and they're

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Speaker 4: you know, even against the Jets, who I don't even

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Speaker 4: know if you call them a pulse, but they couldn't

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Speaker 4: do anything overseas, you know, all you can do anyth

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Speaker 4: against a Raider. The Raiders are coming off of like

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Speaker 4: the worst situation you could possibly find yourself in. You're

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Speaker 4: you're a road team and mile high off of an

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Speaker 4: overtime game where they're on the the defense was on

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Speaker 4: the field nearly eighty plays historically that I mean, that's

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Speaker 4: it's been like six and twenty five against a spread

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Speaker 4: for a team like that going on at Thursday night

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Speaker 4: the next week, and the Raiders hung in there almost

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Speaker 4: won the game outright like that. You should have been

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Speaker 4: able to just do whatever you want on offense against

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Speaker 4: that defense, and you know, bon Nicks just really struggled

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Speaker 4: like that. Offense is so elementary to me. It's it's

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Speaker 4: swing pass, swing pass, screen or just deep ball and

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Speaker 4: there's nothing really to it. I'm not really sure if

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Speaker 4: Sean Payton trusts Bone Nicks all that much, and at

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Speaker 4: this point, I just can't take him against any sort

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Speaker 4: of like quality defense, especially the Chiefs that get an

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Speaker 4: extra week to prepare. At the same time, I mean, look,

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Speaker 4: the Denver defense still really good. I wish, you know,

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Speaker 4: Alex Singleton, I don't believe that they're one of their

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Speaker 4: best linebackers is not going to play, as my guess.

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Speaker 4: I think he had a testicular surgery this week, so

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Speaker 4: you know, obviously, you know, hopefully he can recover. Sounds

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Speaker 4: like he's gonna recover nicely, but for this week's probably

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Speaker 4: gonna be out. It's a big part of their defense

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Speaker 4: that's out, and nost Patricks retained, so I do think

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Speaker 4: that they're you know, they're still fine, but you know,

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Speaker 4: I need I needed a certain in Singleton in there

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Speaker 4: to possibly look at taking Denver over a field goal.

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Speaker 4: Otherwise this is like, to me, this is a pass.

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Speaker 4: I don't like either side of here.

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Speaker 2: As bad as Nicks has been last year in two

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Speaker 2: games against Casey eighty one percent completions, five hundred plus yards,

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Speaker 2: six TV's no picks, he was actually kind of good.

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Speaker 4: In those.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you could strip anything away you for.

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Speaker 2: The phrase is saving the good plays. Is this one

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Speaker 2: of those games where Sean Payton, Hey, we're not showing anything.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna walk in here, beat the Raiders. We're saving

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Speaker 2: the good stuff for Casey.

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Speaker 3: Is there a world.

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Speaker 2: Where maybe that was a Peyton game plan and we

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Speaker 2: fell for it because I lost money on the box.

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Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, I don't know if they're

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Speaker 4: in that that spot that they can do that, honestly.

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Speaker 4: And look, they should have lost to Houston. I was

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Speaker 4: on Houston the week before against Denver and the only

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Speaker 4: reason Denver won that game was c J. Stroud got hurt.

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Speaker 4: You got the concussion early, like Denver was. Houston was

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Speaker 4: moving the ball up on the field on him, and

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Speaker 4: you know, once he got hurt, then that allowed Denver

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Speaker 4: to stay in it. And look, bo Knicks didn't make

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Speaker 4: that a big scramble on a third down on the

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Speaker 4: last drive to win that game, so he Look fourth

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Speaker 4: quarter bon Nicks is a guy you want on your side.

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Speaker 4: If you look at the first three quarters of games,

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Speaker 4: he's either second worst or third worst in all metrics

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Speaker 4: from a quarterback perspective, and then fourth quarter comes. He's

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Speaker 4: a top ten quarterback, so I don't know what happens

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Speaker 4: in that such. You know, like what happens there, maybe

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Speaker 4: it's you know, kind of comeback mode or chase mode.

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Speaker 4: But you know, he's just not a guy that I'm

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Speaker 4: interested in backing right now against a good defense. It's

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Speaker 4: just hard to see. So like to me, you know,

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Speaker 4: if if Denver is going to cover this game or

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Speaker 4: even have a chance to win, it's gonna be low

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Speaker 4: scoring because I don't think Denver's just gonna you know,

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Speaker 4: explode on this defense here. And so you know, maybe

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Speaker 4: if you're interested in taking uh, taking the Broncos, you

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Speaker 4: just parlay it with the under. You get a little

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Speaker 4: bit of correlation there, I think, because again I don't

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Speaker 4: see Denver, you know, covering over winning in a shoot.

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Speaker 2: Let's just remember Chiefs went to Jacksonville and lost. I

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Speaker 2: know that was free Rashi Rice, I believe, and then

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Speaker 2: went to Buffalo and lost in Buffalo. I mean, Buffalo

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Speaker 2: did not look any great last week. So I'm a

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Speaker 2: little skeptical to Chiefs. I know everybody loves him.

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Speaker 3: That's fine.

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Speaker 2: Let me move to Buccaneers at Buffalo. Your sighte Cleve

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Speaker 2: Cleve Analytics has been down on Tampa all year, understandably so,

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Speaker 2: and you had perhaps the greatest thing I've seen this week,

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Speaker 2: Ta in your right up on this game is that

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Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield has not scrambled in his last three games.

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Speaker 2: And I was like, that can't be right. I went

395
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Speaker 2: to the game log and it's like Baker's running four, five, six,

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Speaker 2: seven times a game last three games, zero rushes. That

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Speaker 2: has to be an injury, right. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Someone sent me a note after I tweeted that out

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Speaker 4: that you know, they asked him about it and he

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Speaker 4: said he kind of played Koy and said, oh, it's

401
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Speaker 4: just how you know, defenses are playing me. They're you know,

402
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Speaker 4: covering the rush lanes or not. They're having spies on me. Now,

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that's true, because he's not even trying.

404
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Speaker 4: Like it's one thing if he because you remember, if

405
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Speaker 4: you you know, if you roll out and you know,

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Speaker 4: and get tackled behind the line gets a sack. I

407
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Speaker 4: don't even think that's happening. He's not even trying. And

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Speaker 4: that's the thing about Baker. If you watched earlier in

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Speaker 4: the season, you know they were struggling on early downs,

410
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Speaker 4: and he just made magical plays on third and fourth downs,

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Speaker 4: especially late in games. He was getting out of sacks,

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Speaker 4: he was getting out of the pocket, and he was

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Speaker 4: either running the ball or he was pushing the ball

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Speaker 4: down the field on those scramble plays, and that was

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Speaker 4: really what was winning those games, because they were winning

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Speaker 4: a ton of tight games early and it's not really sustainable,

417
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Speaker 4: to be honest, and so far. You know, at this point,

418
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Speaker 4: you know, whether the defense is figured out, whether he's

419
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Speaker 4: got that oblique injury that's bothering him and limiting his

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Speaker 4: rushing or whatever. Without that escapability, the offense has been terrible.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's a bottom five offense in the last

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Speaker 4: month of the year. And I know they've got some injuries,

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Speaker 4: but I think what happened early in the year was

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Speaker 4: masking the reality that this offense just isn't the same

425
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Speaker 4: without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Jay McMillan. And

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Speaker 4: you know, you got a rookie of Buca as that

427
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Speaker 4: your number one, and you know Baker is just not

428
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Speaker 4: the same guy as he was earlier in the year.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I I am on the bills because I

430
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,479
Speaker 4: think it's a great bounce back spot. Personally, I make

431
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 4: this game six and a half, So I took the

432
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 4: five and a half. I think, you know, six is

433
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 4: not you know six is and seven, but it's a

434
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 4: key number. So I think getting under that key number

435
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 4: is you know, is valuable. And I think obviously off

436
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 4: of that loss, you know you're gonna get full motivation

437
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 4: for the Bills. I think that you're going to supposedly

438
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 4: it's gonna be kind of sloppy weather in Buffalo. It

439
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 4: up you apprisingly right, and so not that Barmy Baker

440
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:40,679
Speaker 4: is used to it because being from Cleveland, but like

441
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 4: the rest of the team may not be. That's that's

442
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 4: the ideal conditions I want. I want Josh Allen and

443
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 4: at home and in a game they gotta win if

444
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 4: they're gonna have any shot of getting that number one

445
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 4: seedter at least winning the AFC East. So I think

446
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 4: that this is a nice spot for Buffalo. They're gonna

447
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: get some defenders back that they were missing against Miami,

448
00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 4: is esecially along the front four. I just think that

449
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 4: you know, with the way that Baker in that offense

450
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,439
Speaker 4: is trending, and you know, the motivation off of that loss.

451
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:10,959
Speaker 4: I think you know, to me, if you looked at

452
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 4: last week's ratings in the market, this would have been

453
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 4: six and a half. And so what happened? I mean

454
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 4: both teams lost. I don't think Tampa looked great. They

455
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 4: lost as a home favorite. So why are we docking

456
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,719
Speaker 4: them a full point? There's really not there's no new

457
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 4: data that at Buffalo. Yeah, So to me, the five

458
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 4: and a half is you're getting a little bit of

459
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 4: value there in Buffalo.

460
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 2: In Buffalo here, so Friday snowshower in the morning in

461
00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:36,120
Speaker 2: Buffalo not a big deal. Saturday afternoon shower or two

462
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 2: Sunday showers of rain and snow, temps in the thirties,

463
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 2: and that's Buffalo Bills football.

464
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 4: Weather in twenty mile an hour wins which is probably

465
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 4: the most important.

466
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they were they wilted in that heat in

467
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 2: Miami clearly was let spot.

468
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 4: Of if you've ever seen one, right, I mean, you play,

469
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 4: you play Kansas City, that's like you're in season super Bowl,

470
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 4: you win that big. Now you go to South Beach,

471
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 4: a bad Miami team, like you're on South Beach, like

472
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 4: guys let loose, like they relax. It's just it's just

473
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: human nature. And look, Miami's playing better. I was on

474
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,719
Speaker 4: Miami and if you were on the site, you know

475
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 4: you saw that I was on the Dolphins.

476
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 2: Yeah no, no, I got them too.

477
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah. So like that, that was a good spot.

478
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 4: That was a perfect like spot, if you will. And

479
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 4: so it you know, to me, one random weeks like

480
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 4: that in the NFL, that happens to all good teams.

481
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 4: I don't dock their ratings because of it. So maybe

482
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: that's where I find value A lot of times, is

483
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,359
Speaker 4: when the market just docks too much or you know,

484
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 4: negatively or positively for you know, one recent performance game. Like,

485
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 4: to me, that's not enough to change the rating on them.

486
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 4: So I do think they're value there.

487
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 2: Let me ask you about this game in Madrid Miami Washington.

488
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: It was the first bet I made on Miami. And

489
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: then of course I'm like, oh, what am I doing?

490
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 2: It's too reactionary. But I just see Washington as a

491
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 2: total sinking ship. Dan Quinn taking over play calling duties.

492
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: The injuries, I think is Payon gonna get suspended for

493
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 2: that punch. I don't know, he's out, He's definitely out,

494
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 2: and he's one of their best defensive players on a

495
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 2: shitty defense. But Tia, the other thing is, I was

496
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 2: tickering with chat GPT and I want to ask you

497
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 2: if you use that at all for any NFL handicapping,

498
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 2: and because I can't find scheme stuff, so I was like,

499
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: you know that's just at chat GPT. Hey, can you

500
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 2: give me all the matchups between Mike McDaniel as an

501
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 2: offensive guy and dan Quinn's defense And there aren't many,

502
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: but in the matchups, the Mike McDaniel offense and the

503
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 2: schemes have given dan Quinn fits because of the way

504
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 2: he plays his defense. You can punch it in and

505
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:32,959
Speaker 2: read it all, but I am curious, a do you

506
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: use chat GPT at all? And be I mean I

507
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: mostly do it for scheme stuff like coaching matchups and

508
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 2: like you know, tendencies. But I am curious if you

509
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: think this is a good side on Miami. I got

510
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,239
Speaker 2: it two and a half and two and now it's

511
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 2: at three. Don't love it as much your thoughts?

512
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 4: No, I mean I think you got a good number.

513
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 4: You should like it more because since you took it out,

514
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 4: we saw yeah, but we saw that deron Payne news

515
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 4: that wasn't fact in the price originally I think it's

516
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 4: up to it is it sitting at three?

517
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 2: Now three one oh seven?

518
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you got a great number off is obviously

519
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 4: off the key number of three, and I mean it's

520
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 4: a I mean this, this Washington defense is utterly decimated.

521
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 4: And it wasn't just pain. They also lost their rookie

522
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 4: cornerback Trey Amos, who's actually been playing, you know, fairly

523
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 4: well they I mean, they already don't have Marshaun Lattimore

524
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 4: like they are I would say based on current rosters

525
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 4: I think, and then the fact they don't have Terry

526
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 4: McLaurin either. Like I think this is a bottom five

527
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 4: team in the NFL right now. Like I see them

528
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 4: like right in line with the Jets and the Browns

529
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 4: and the Titans and the Saints. Like they're probably a

530
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 4: tad better than those teams. But this is a bad,

531
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 4: bad team. This is an old defense. They are getting decimated.

532
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 4: And you know, Dan Quinn is supposedly gonna take over

533
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 4: play calling. I don't know if that's gonna help or not,

534
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 4: but there's gonna be a lot of advantages over the

535
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 4: middle of the field. This is a slow line and core.

536
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 4: You have Bobby Wagner, who's out there at his age

537
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,919
Speaker 4: having to defend running backs. I think Devin hn in

538
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 4: the pass game is going to be huge factor. I

539
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 4: mean they throw to them all the time, like seven

540
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 4: eight times a game. He's gonna get a lot of

541
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 4: swing passes. He's going to force Bobby Wagner to move

542
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 4: his feet and that's not a pretty thing. So I

543
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 4: think all the matchup advantages are on Miami side. On offense,

544
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 4: he looked defensively, Miami was terrible to start the year.

545
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 4: They were getting gashed by everybody in the ground. The

546
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 4: last month, they're one of the the they're top ten

547
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 4: in the NFL in success rate on defense, and they're

548
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 4: one of the better run defenses. And they faced Buffalo,

549
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 4: they face Baltimore, you know, they face some really good

550
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 4: off The Chargers like good offenses. This isn't like they're

551
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 4: not being you know, inflated based on their opponents. So

552
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 4: Miami's played better. Like maybe maybe they celebrate a little

553
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 4: bit too much last week, So that's one thing to

554
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 4: worry about. But I think at two and a half,

555
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 4: you should feel good with that number. If it gets

556
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 4: a three and a half, maybe you come back a

557
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 4: little bit on Washington. Try to get that middle at three.

558
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 4: But I think you got a good number, all right.

559
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: And I always have to ask about the Cleveland Browns

560
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: because you have a good, good read on them. This

561
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 2: is a tough one. Baltimore big favorites on the road

562
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 2: looks like inclement weather. And I'll dovetail this into survivor

563
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 2: because we were looking at Baltimore either this week or

564
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: next week. We'd like to save them for the Jets

565
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: game at home next week, but we're getting nervous. I

566
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: don't know where. Just give me your you know, macro

567
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: handicap on Baltimore Cleveland. We know Dylan Gabriel is not great,

568
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: but the splits for the Cleveland defense are amazing at home.

569
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I've tweeted about like the it's so crazy

570
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 4: how on the road. If you look at opponent team totals,

571
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 4: and that's a good way to measure how the market

572
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 4: is viewing, you know, your defense on the road. They've

573
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 4: allowed I'm gonna pull it up right now because it's

574
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 4: it was updated from last week. Eighty eight percent eighty

575
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 4: eight percent. I don't know the exact number of games,

576
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 4: so apologize. That's almost all. Obviously there's probably one or

577
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 4: two that went under. Eighty eight percent of the opponents

578
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 4: went for their team totals since the beginning of twenty

579
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 4: twenty three. Incredible, and that includes the Jets last week. Now,

580
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 4: how they do it is not often, you know, by offense.

581
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 4: You saw two special teams touchdowns last week. We've seen

582
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 4: some defensive touchdowns, et cetera. But generally speaking, the defenses

583
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 4: is night and day different on the road and at home.

584
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 4: At home, only thirty five percent of opponents have gone

585
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 4: over under their or gone over their team total. So

586
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 4: this by far and away the biggest split between home

587
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 4: and road performance. They're dominated at home, so I do

588
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,360
Speaker 4: think that defensively, and you know they've got to they

589
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 4: know the Ravens that both teams know each other like.

590
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 4: They do a pretty good job handling Lamar generally speaking,

591
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 4: So I think this is a really low scoring game.

592
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 4: I just would, especially with the weather. Dylan Gabriel is

593
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 4: not an NFL quarterback at very best. He's a you know,

594
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 4: a ten years he's case Keenum on his best day.

595
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 4: To me, he doesn't have an arm. It's not accurate.

596
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 4: So like, and the Ravens defense is playing a lot

597
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 4: better since they got all their pieces back. So I

598
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,360
Speaker 4: think this is a low scoring game. I mean, don't

599
00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 4: I wouldn't worry about from a Survivor of perspective. Back

600
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 4: back in the Ravens out again, Like you said, they

601
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: have a lot of future value, including next week. So

602
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 4: it all I mean, it's hard for me to answer.

603
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 4: You know, I've got on my website, I do have

604
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 4: an optimizer for Survivor pools, and you know, based on

605
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: the type of pool you have and how many picks

606
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 4: you know you need to make each week and who

607
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 4: you've used, you can see like the best route and

608
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 4: you know you can kind of make some you know,

609
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 4: pick certain weeks and where you you know teams that

610
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,479
Speaker 4: you want to save, and you see what it looks like.

611
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 4: But I think, to me, New England this week is probably, yes,

612
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 4: what you know, the best option. Again, it all depends

613
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 4: on your pool, how large it is and we burned,

614
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 4: how many people are available.

615
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 2: But you know, let me ask you Texans. You have

616
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 2: them as number three in Survivor this week after the

617
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: Ravens at two. Obviously Patriots won, but the Texans are dicey.

618
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go ahead and guess it's going to be

619
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 2: Davis Mills and Tennessee's off a buy Houston. I mean, listen, man,

620
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 2: they're not good. I have not fared well with them

621
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 2: this season. We got lucky as hell last week against

622
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 2: the Jags with that comeback down twenty nine ten. I

623
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 2: don't trust Davis Mills. Obviously, we want to see the injuries.

624
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 2: Is Jeffrey Simmons playing? But I just watched the Chargers

625
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 2: go to Tennessee pick six but return touchdown and they

626
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 2: didn't get the cover. Now, in Survivor, you just need

627
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 2: to win. I know the Texans smashed them, but I

628
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 2: think I've read either with you or someone else divisional

629
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: rematches later in the season. You always want to lean dog.

630
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 2: I just I would be so pissed to go down

631
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,959
Speaker 2: and Survivor. The pool is significant for with Davis Mills,

632
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 2: you know swinging.

633
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 4: You know, well, is this the circle one with the holiday?

634
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: No?

635
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 2: No, this isn't one.

636
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 4: Okay, so that's different. So because that makes a world

637
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 4: of difference. In the Circle one, you have to pick

638
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving and Christmas, and the Ravens are likely to be

639
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 4: the Thanksgiving pick because they are by far the biggest

640
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 4: favorite against the Bengals. So if you don't have to

641
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 4: worry about that, then they're certainly in play this week.

642
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 4: But you know, again they have next week. You know,

643
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 4: you've got them at home against the Jets. That's seems

644
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 4: like a layup. You also have ten of Seattle going

645
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 4: to Tennessee and you have Detroit.

646
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 2: Oh it's that we don't have Seattle or Detroit left.

647
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 4: San Francisco at home versus Carolina.

648
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 2: The other one.

649
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you've got options. And again for any survivor,

650
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 4: PA again with the thing about my side, you know

651
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 4: you're on it. You could you can map all this

652
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 4: stuff out and see what it looks like. You know,

653
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 4: those are all you know in play. New England has

654
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 4: a really you know, New England has a favorable schedule,

655
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 4: so you know, I can certainly see reasons to to

656
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 4: hang on to them if you want. But at some point,

657
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 4: like just chalk is okay, Like I think people have

658
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 4: to understand that, you know, chalk is okay as long as, uh,

659
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: you know, one hundred percent of the pool isn't taking them.

660
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 4: So you know, if you look at your pool, and

661
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 4: most online pools have availability, most people have used not

662
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 4: most people a lot of people have used New England already.

663
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 4: Maybe half the pool has them available, so that limits

664
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 4: how many people will pick them. So for there's such

665
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 4: a significant favorite and at home, you know, and and

666
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 4: you know Aaron Glenn on a Thursday night rookie head

667
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 4: coaches on Thursday night football really struggle, you know, against routine.

668
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:06,719
Speaker 4: So to me, it all lines up for Newing. If

669
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 4: you've got them, just use them, you know, that's my opinion.

670
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 4: But if you had to use the Ravens, I wouldn't

671
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 4: bother me either. I would be nervous on the Texans

672
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 4: just because there's a lot is a high projection looks

673
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 4: like kind of mid twenties to thirty percent of the

674
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 4: people so far in national pools are looking to take Houston,

675
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 4: which is significant. It's a big chunk of the pool,

676
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 4: like that's where you have to, you know, potentially pivot

677
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 4: and hope that someone like that goes down, which is

678
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 4: possible if you have Davis Mills on the road. So

679
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 4: I do think that's one that I would be careful

680
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 4: of avoid.

681
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, so we burned Denver last week, barely survived against

682
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: the Raiders. But a lot of people said, oh, let

683
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 2: me just go with Buffalo on the road, and they lost,

684
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 2: and then a lot of people said, let me go

685
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 2: with Carolina at home, and so all you know what

686
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 2: was familiar in all of them, they were all divisional matchups.

687
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 2: So for me, I would love to avoid a divisional match. Well,

688
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: now that's gonna be hard because, like you know, you

689
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 2: could just say, hey, I'll just take an NFC West team.

690
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,680
Speaker 2: They're really freaking good this year. I mean they're smashing everybody.

691
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 2: They're all facing each other this week, and I mean

692
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 2: Niners rock Purty. I just see he's practicing. They may

693
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 2: hopefully he's gonna play. I don't freaking know. Well how

694
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: far you.

695
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 4: Say one thing though? Real quick, sorry interrupt. Don't worry

696
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 4: about division. I've it's honestly, it's kind of a fallacy.

697
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 4: There's really not that much of a win probability difference

698
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 4: versus division and non division. It kind of the way

699
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 4: I look at it, I'm pretty mechanical with this stuff.

700
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 4: I again, if you look at the site I just

701
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 4: really I wrote up and you mentioned the Chicago, you

702
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 4: mentioned Carolina last week. If you read my my write up,

703
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 4: I said, do not take Carolina because they were they

704
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 4: were like like a five and a half point favorite,

705
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 4: and I think the Bears were four and a half

706
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 4: and but like twenty eight percent of the pool was

707
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 4: projected to take Carolina, but only like seven percent were

708
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 4: on Chicago, And I was like, this doesn't make any sense.

709
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 4: You can't have that large of a disparity in pick

710
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 4: percentage when the win probabilities are almost equal, right, So,

711
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 4: like that's where you have to be careful of. It's

712
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 4: it's avoiding the chalk when you have other options that

713
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 4: have similar future value or similar win probability. So it's

714
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 4: that balance, it's it's it's a fun puzzle to deal with.

715
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 4: But I wouldn't worry so much about the division non

716
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 4: division stuff. That's if you look historically, it hasn't really mattered.

717
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 4: Just look at the win probability. It's it's really that's

718
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 4: really what you should go on. You know, at the

719
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 4: end of the day, unless you have a really strong

720
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 4: reason as to why a divisional matchup would tilt towards

721
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 4: the underdog, that's where you can put your handicap on.

722
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 4: Like if if you're choosing between two teams that have

723
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 4: similar win probability, similar future value, and you're like I

724
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 4: kind of have to pick one of these two. Then sure,

725
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 4: like maybe you go non division because you're more comfortable

726
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 4: that way. But you know, you know, generally speaking, let

727
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 4: the let the market that's sufficient tell you what the

728
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 4: win probability is and kind of guide.

729
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,120
Speaker 2: You so before we get out real quick. So the

730
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 2: other team I was we were floating is the Dallas

731
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 2: Cowboys at the Raiders. I see you have as a

732
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 2: four percent chance the public's not gonna be all over them.

733
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: It looks like you're getting some defenders back. I'd see

734
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 2: the Raiders as one of the worst teams in the league. Now,

735
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 2: the Dallas defense stinks. If there's a get right spot

736
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 2: for Gino, maybe this is it. But Gino Smith is horrible.

737
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: It seems like there's some dissension among the ranks between

738
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:28,399
Speaker 2: Chip Kelly, Gino, Pete Carroll. I don't know your quick

739
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 2: thoughts on Dallas. Who I think is gonna have everybody

740
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: healthy offensively?

741
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 4: Oh? Man, see, I just it's not necessary. You don't

742
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: have to take them. That's where you gotta be careful,

743
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 4: Like if you're getting too tricky here. I mean, their

744
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 4: defense is still really bad. And look, I hate to

745
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 4: even bring it up. But you know the Marshaw Neelan

746
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 4: stuff like who knows what their psyche is, like what

747
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 4: their preparation is this week. Like that's a tough that's

748
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 4: a tough thing to handicap. And I'm not really in

749
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 4: that boat honestly. Like if you told me I either

750
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 4: take Dallas on the road or take Miami, I'd rather

751
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 4: have Miami. Oh you know, if you had a bunch

752
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 4: of entries and you just want to diversify with like

753
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 4: one off the wall, if you wanted to go crazy,

754
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 4: I would rather have Washington.

755
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: I think, all right, sorry, Miami, then Miami Houston or Dallas.

756
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 4: Well Houston, because they're such they're they're favored by so

757
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 4: much more. Like again, I have to even though I

758
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 4: think that, you know, it's risky generally speaking, there's still

759
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 4: such a significant win probability advantage over those other teams.

760
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 4: And I just when it's that, like I said, if

761
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 4: it's like a half a point or point difference, okay,

762
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 4: make that call, if you want to make that handicap call.

763
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 4: But I'm a numbers guy, Like I just look at probability.

764
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 4: The market is efficient, Like if the if the market

765
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 4: says this is the win probability. I have to kind

766
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 4: of go with it, so uh, it would have to

767
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 4: be Houston. I think in that.

768
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: Case, I like that strategy. All right, Ta, He's great.

769
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 2: If you're not on a site, you're missing out. C

770
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: L e V Analytics dot com. As always, thanks a lot, man,

771
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: enjoy the Thanksgiving break, good luck this week.

772
00:35:58,160 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 4: All right, thanks Jason.

773
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

774
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio

775
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to

776
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 1: listen live. The only thing better than sitting on your

777
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: couch watching the games is making money while you do it.

778
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: Here's your best bet.

779
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 2: Great stuff from Ta, my guy. As you guys can tell,

780
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 2: I'm very much sweating survivor every day injury reports, weather,

781
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 2: huge sweat. All right quickly, Thursday night football. My Jets

782
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 2: winners of two straight. Yes, that's right, the New York

783
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 2: Football Jets have won two games in a row. Obviously,

784
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 2: the miracle comeback against the Bengals and then last week

785
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:53,240
Speaker 2: with something like fifty yards passing netyards passing from justin fields.

786
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 2: Somehow the Jets beat the Browns.

787
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 3: I know the answer.

788
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 2: It was special teams. They have two touchdowns on returns.

789
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 2: You never get that. That being said, this is a

790
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: tough spot for the Jets. They are thirteen point dogs.

791
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 2: I got this earlier in the week twelve and a

792
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 2: half Patriots. The news is not good for Garrett Wilson

793
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: knee injury. He will not play. So now you have

794
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: a Jets offense without their top receiver. Essentially it's breeze

795
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: haul against the world. Here's the problem. Patriots run defense

796
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 2: has been elite. No running back has reached sixty yards

797
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: against the Patriots run defense this year. The high was

798
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 2: last week, actually Sean Tucker, who I picked up in

799
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 2: Fantasy of the Bucks. I mean that the number one

800
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 2: rush d in yards per game allowed. All the Jets

801
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 2: can do is run. What are we looking at here?

802
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: A heavy game of Justin Field's just running around like

803
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 2: a chicken with his head cut off.

804
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 3: I don't know.

805
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 2: Is this a Mason Taylor game. Those wide receivers minus

806
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson do not scare anybody. This is gonna be

807
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 2: a tough one for the Jets. To put it mildly,

808
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 2: thirteen is indeed a massive number, but all anybody's betting

809
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: is the Patriots. I know it's a divisional matchup and

810
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: the Jets probably show up here to fight hard. But

811
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 2: you guys know what they say about rookie head coaches

812
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: on Thursday Night Football. The numbers are ghastly, something like

813
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 2: twenty nine percent against the spread. It's weird because the

814
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: data is kind of wonky, and sometimes rookie quarterback rookie

815
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 2: coaches face off. But you've got Aaron Glenn short.

816
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 4: Week justin fields down his top receiver.

817
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 2: It is absolutely bleak for the Jets. As such, I

818
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 2: will go Patriots twenty seven, Jets nine. I don't even

819
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 2: know how they score touchdowns here. Maybe they get a

820
00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 2: return touchdown. But you know, if you have the Patriots

821
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 2: defense in fantasy, you're probably in really good shape. All right,

822
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 2: back tomorrow, Big NFL Slate, talk to you then,