Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at
Speaker 1: the Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody, Happy NBA Finals. We finally
Speaker 1: made it. Coverage of the NBA Finals. Here, Hoops Tonight
Speaker 1: is brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do
Speaker 1: you cash back? Well, we've officially made it. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: do a full series preview today. We're gonna hit three
Speaker 1: major matchups for our Chase three point segment for what
Speaker 1: I expect over the course of these NBA Finals, gonna
Speaker 1: dive a lot into both sides of the ball, into
Speaker 1: some schematic things that I expect from both teams, and
Speaker 1: then I'm gonna give a pick, and then after that
Speaker 1: I'll give the case for why the other team has
Speaker 1: a chance to win. You guys know the joke before
Speaker 1: we get started. To subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels.
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Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball. I love the NBA Finals. I
Speaker 1: remember growing up, every single time Game one or any
Speaker 1: of the games would start, you'd have that really cool
Speaker 1: video that ABC would show as there getting ready to
Speaker 1: throw the ball up at center court. And there's a
Speaker 1: history there, there's a meaning in like a it's almost
Speaker 1: it has like a very sacred meaning to me personally,
Speaker 1: And that's why it's a big part of why, like
Speaker 1: when we're talking about player rankings and you know, one
Speaker 1: of your guys's favorite players is someone that you think
Speaker 1: is the best, and like, I'm a little bit slower
Speaker 1: to get there, and why give so much preferential treatment
Speaker 1: to the guys that have won championships. It has a
Speaker 1: lot to do with how sacred I think the NBA
Speaker 1: Finals are. This is the ultimate test of a basketball
Speaker 1: player to succeed on this stage after everything you've done
Speaker 1: over the course of the previous three rounds. And so
Speaker 1: I'm really excited for Nikola Jokic and for Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 1: They both have an opportunity in this series to stamp
Speaker 1: themselves as one of those guys, as one of the
Speaker 1: greatest basketball players in NBA history, to lead a team
Speaker 1: to an NBA championship. And that's what's cool. Like, no
Speaker 1: matter what, when this is all said and done, either
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler or Nikola Jokich, one of those two guys
Speaker 1: is going to be stamped as an NBA champion. I'm very,
Speaker 1: very excited for that. And without any further ado, let's
Speaker 1: do the usual. We're gonna go through series notes to
Speaker 1: get started. Denver as of right now as a minus
Speaker 1: four to twenty favorite rapidly increasing line. Denver swept the
Speaker 1: season series two zero. Not a ton to learn there.
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray missed one of the games. Caleb Martin played
Speaker 1: twenty eight total minutes in the two games. DeAndre Jordan
Speaker 1: was getting run, a lot of bones Highland thrown up threes,
Speaker 1: a lot of guys for both teams that won't be
Speaker 1: in the rotation at all whatsoever. Seeing a little Tyler Harrow,
Speaker 1: who I expect to actually make an appearance in this series.
Speaker 1: But there were some stuff to learn, right Like I
Speaker 1: got to see a little bit of Bam battling with
Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic on both ends of the floor. I got
Speaker 1: to see Jimmy attacking matchups the way he's been doing
Speaker 1: this entire postseason, you got to see a lot of
Speaker 1: what Miami's zone defense looks like against Denver. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna share a lot of that stuff with you. But
Speaker 1: most of our projections are gonna come based on what
Speaker 1: we've seen from these two teams in this postseason run.
Speaker 1: So this is gonna be our chase three points segment
Speaker 1: Number one. Can Miami slow down Denver's offense? So Denver
Speaker 1: size will force Miami to play bigger, in my opinion,
Speaker 1: at least bigger than they did over the course of
Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics series. I wonder if Eric Spolsher will
Speaker 1: go back to Kevin Love in the starting lineup in
Speaker 1: order to combat that, because then you the matchups start
Speaker 1: to make a little bit more sense. You consider putting
Speaker 1: Kevin Love on Nikola Jokic. Kevin Love is good at
Speaker 1: battling for position. It's a type of defender that'll do
Speaker 1: just as well against the Jokic type as anybody else,
Speaker 1: which is more of a statement that jokis just just
Speaker 1: pretty much gonna destroy everybody, right, But Kevin Love is
Speaker 1: gonna hold up at least in some of those position battles.
Speaker 1: I'd put Bam in a bio on Aaron Gordon in
Speaker 1: that case and kind of have him roaming around on
Speaker 1: the back line. You put Jimmy Butler and Michael Porter Junior,
Speaker 1: which is a better size for size matchup. Probably have
Speaker 1: Max Struce on Kndavious Cabble Pope and Gabe Vincent on
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray. You can probably also get away with putting
Speaker 1: Kevin Love on Aaron Gordon as well. But whether or
Speaker 1: not Kevin Love is playable in this series will go
Speaker 1: a long way because of the size matchups and how
Speaker 1: difficult they get. If you can't go that round, it
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily have to be Love. It could be Zeller,
Speaker 1: but I think Love is probably a little bit more
Speaker 1: likely just because he's bigger and stronger as a lower
Speaker 1: center of gravity. But if those two guys get played
Speaker 1: off the court, it gets pretty tough because now you're
Speaker 1: asking Bam at a bio to match up with Nikola Jokic.
Speaker 1: Now you're putting Jimmy Butler on Aaron Gordon. He's given
Speaker 1: up a lot of weight and height to Aaron Gordon.
Speaker 1: Now Max Struce is sliding down to Michael Porter Junior.
Speaker 1: Not nearly gonna bother Michael Porter Junior as much as
Speaker 1: a Jimmy Butler could. And now you're putting on like
Speaker 1: you're asking Caleb Martin if you move him into the
Speaker 1: starting lineup to chase around Jamal Murray, which I think
Speaker 1: that matchup is one that Miami can live with, but
Speaker 1: they're giving up a lot of size across the board.
Speaker 1: And if you really look at how much Miami struggled
Speaker 1: rebounding against Boston, and then remember post deadline, the Los
Speaker 1: Angeles Lakers were fourth in rebounding post headline because of this,
Speaker 1: the size that they added, Anthony Davis really engaging himself,
Speaker 1: Lebron James when he came back to the team, they
Speaker 1: got absolutely destroyed on the glass by Denver. You guys
Speaker 1: might remember a point in Game one where Denver at
Speaker 1: one point had grabbed twenty of the first twenty three
Speaker 1: rebounds in that game. So there's a massive size advantage
Speaker 1: there that I think is going to be one of
Speaker 1: the biggest determining factors over the course of the series.
Speaker 1: And it's gonna be very important for Miami to be
Speaker 1: able to match up across the board. And I think
Speaker 1: the Kevin Love minutes and whether or not they're viable
Speaker 1: or going to go a long way there. So obviously
Speaker 1: rebounding is gonna play a huge role in this series.
Speaker 1: But where's the other place that size can become an issue?
Speaker 1: In post up situation? So Miami ran a good amount
Speaker 1: of drop coverage against the Murray Jokic actions, but they
Speaker 1: also did a lot of switching across the board, and
Speaker 1: in those situations, Denver absolutely pulverized them over the course
Speaker 1: of this season attacking those switches. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 1: they ran thirty post ups in their two matchups with
Speaker 1: Miami this year, and in those thirty post ups scored
Speaker 1: forty seven points, so over a point and a half
Speaker 1: per possession. A lot of the usual stuff, right Nikola
Speaker 1: Jokic getting a deep seal drawn a double team and
Speaker 1: throwing that pass to a cutter, to a shooter, just
Speaker 1: bullying his way into the lane for a layup, But
Speaker 1: there was a lot of There was one game where
Speaker 1: Miami just persistently was allowing Kyle Lowry to switch on
Speaker 1: to Aaron Gordon, and Denver just backed Nikola Jokic out
Speaker 1: to the top of the key and posted up Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon and just spammed that action Aaron Gordon was just
Speaker 1: scoring time and time again, whether it was hitting cutters
Speaker 1: or hitting shots over the top. So Denver's just way
Speaker 1: way better at making you pay for switching smaller players
Speaker 1: onto bigger front court players than Boston was, and that
Speaker 1: that's a dynamic over the course of the series. That's
Speaker 1: going to be a much bigger challenge for Eric Spolstra
Speaker 1: and those guys to deal with than it was in
Speaker 1: the last round. So what can Miami do to combat that?
Speaker 1: They tried some doubling. There was a play where they
Speaker 1: doubled Nikolajokic. He just drops it off to Vlado Contar
Speaker 1: under the basket. You know, there's a play where in
Speaker 1: that sequence where Aaron Gordon was attacking Kyle Lowry all
Speaker 1: the time, where they ended up double teaming and Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon just shoveled it right to Michael Porter Juni You're
Speaker 1: under the basket for a dunk. So Denver's really good
Speaker 1: at handling that as well. My guess is Eric Spolster
Speaker 1: just tries to do a ton of mixing up coverages
Speaker 1: to disrupt rhythm. So I think we'll see some doubles.
Speaker 1: I think they we'll see him leave him on an
Speaker 1: island every once in a while. I think we'll see
Speaker 1: some digging and recovering, But I think the post up
Speaker 1: battle is going to be the main way that Denver
Speaker 1: attacks Miami over the course of this series, and where
Speaker 1: I expect them to have the most success. They're just
Speaker 1: too big and too good at spacing the floor and
Speaker 1: making teams pay for double teams. It's just a really
Speaker 1: tough matchup for Miami on that front. In pick and roll,
Speaker 1: we don't have a ton to work with here. On
Speaker 1: the film. There was only four Jamal Murray Nikol Jokis
Speaker 1: pick and rolls during the regular season where Miami didn't
Speaker 1: switch and ended up just attacking out of the post.
Speaker 1: They scored on all four of those possessions, and in
Speaker 1: all four cases it was actually Jamal Murray making shots
Speaker 1: over the top. They did a lot attacking Tyler Harrow,
Speaker 1: so like they would run a guard to guard screen
Speaker 1: to get Tyler Harrow switched on to Jamal Murray, and
Speaker 1: then they'd bring Nikola Jokic up to attack because Jamal
Speaker 1: was just having too easy of a time ditching Tyler
Speaker 1: Harrow on those screens and getting into the lane. When
Speaker 1: I'm saying he's making shots over the top, he's making
Speaker 1: shots in the short range. These are like little ten
Speaker 1: foot floaters the occasional layup like he's getting easy shots
Speaker 1: in that pick and roll attack. Once again, I expect
Speaker 1: a lot more of mixing coverages. I think we'll see
Speaker 1: some drop coverage when guys like a Caleb Martin or
Speaker 1: or gave Vincent or Kyle Lowry on him. I think
Speaker 1: we'll see some switching and fronting the post. Miami's a
Speaker 1: great team when it comes to fronting the post and
Speaker 1: applying back pressure. So essentially, like when the switch happens,
Speaker 1: they get in front of Jokic and try to prevent
Speaker 1: that easy post entry right. So Jokic will push on
Speaker 1: his back and create a target up high right. But
Speaker 1: what Miami will do is they'll offer so much backside
Speaker 1: help that it's just an extremely difficult pass to make. Now,
Speaker 1: Yokich is so damn big, he's gonna score on some
Speaker 1: of those anyway, but it's gonna be that skip pass
Speaker 1: across the court that's wide open. And I think I
Speaker 1: think Sposter's gonna really challenge Jamal Murray in particular, to
Speaker 1: consistently make that skip pass across the court. I think
Speaker 1: we'll see some random blitzes, right like, just to disrupt
Speaker 1: rhythm and to try to catch Jamal Murray off guard.
Speaker 1: Don't be surprised if we see some super aggressive Miami
Speaker 1: stuff at the front at the point of attack, blitzing
Speaker 1: and getting the ball out of Jamal Murray's hands. And
Speaker 1: then I wouldn't be surprised if at some point over
Speaker 1: the series we saw Jimmy Butler switched on to Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray and basically start switching Jimmy and Bam in that
Speaker 1: action and doing that same kind of front the post
Speaker 1: kind of thing, just with a bigger athlete than Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler up front. I think the Heat'll have a much
Speaker 1: easier time handling the pick and roll stuff because it's
Speaker 1: a little bit more of an area where Spolstra can
Speaker 1: come into the come into play with his schematic approach.
Speaker 1: But I do think we'll see a good amount of
Speaker 1: that in this series. And then the zone. So zone
Speaker 1: was a huge factor in this Boston Celtics series, as
Speaker 1: Spolster used it basically to plague Boston into their worst
Speaker 1: offensive tendencies. Didn't work against Denver. They ran thirteen possessions
Speaker 1: of zone. Denver scored twenty points, and it looked exactly
Speaker 1: like what you expected. Boston never got the ball to
Speaker 1: the middle of the floor. Denver just parked Nicola Jokics
Speaker 1: right at the foul line. He's this huge target and
Speaker 1: then when he turns and faces it's a lob thread
Speaker 1: at the basket and Aaron Gordon and three elite shooters
Speaker 1: around him. It's just way too easy, and Jokic just
Speaker 1: like got this touch pass thing going. They'll just throw
Speaker 1: the ball up high to him and he'll just catch
Speaker 1: it and already make the read and just fling the
Speaker 1: ball to where it's supposed to go. So I don't
Speaker 1: think zone's gonna be an option. The reality is Denver's
Speaker 1: just really hard to guard. You have all the jokes
Speaker 1: Murray stuff, and Murray's just so dialed in with his
Speaker 1: pick and roll shot making right now that I don't
Speaker 1: know how the hell you guard him. They have elite
Speaker 1: off ball threats. Knave's Cable Pope and Michael Porter Junr
Speaker 1: are both knockdown shooters. Aaron Gordon with the lob threat
Speaker 1: that he is under the basket, with his ability to
Speaker 1: duck in for easy seals and dunks. With what he
Speaker 1: does on the offensive glass, they're just really difficult to guard.
Speaker 1: And all those guys can make plays on their own
Speaker 1: as well. Aaron Gordon, we talked about attacking in the post.
Speaker 1: He's good with those transition slot drives too. Kntave's cable
Speaker 1: pope and his pull up shooting in trouble handoff situations.
Speaker 1: That was a big factor in that Lakers series. Michael
Speaker 1: Porter Junior in his ISO pull up shooting, especially against
Speaker 1: smaller defenders, Bruce Brown and his semi transition drives getting
Speaker 1: to the basket with his athleticism, the Lakers were a
Speaker 1: truly elite defense, in my opinion, a better defense than
Speaker 1: this Miami Heat team, and Denver just completely cut them
Speaker 1: to pieces. And that was with the best defensive player
Speaker 1: in the world and Anthony Davis on the floor too.
Speaker 1: I honestly, God don't know what the answer is. And
Speaker 1: so that's that's gonna be the biggest factor in the series.
Speaker 1: Is is there any chance that Miami can slow down
Speaker 1: Denver on the offensive end? Number two? Can Miami keep
Speaker 1: up with Denver on their offensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: So I think we'll see Kntavo's cobble Pope start on
Speaker 1: Gabe Vincent and then Caleb Martin when he comes into
Speaker 1: the game, presuming that he comes off the bench. I
Speaker 1: think we'll see Aaron Gordon start on Jimmy Butler, but
Speaker 1: I also think we'll see some contavious cobble Pope and
Speaker 1: some Bruce Brown there as well. I want to kind
Speaker 1: of split this into three sections. I want to look
Speaker 1: at guard pick and rolls, I want to look at
Speaker 1: bam ISOs, and then our third section of the three
Speaker 1: chase three points is gonna be Jimmy Butler stuff. So
Speaker 1: in guard pick and roll, so this is anything that's
Speaker 1: like Kyle Lowry with the ball, Gave Vincent with the ball,
Speaker 1: Caleb Martin with the ball, high pick and roll with
Speaker 1: bam Adebayo, I think we'll see Yo Kitchen a high
Speaker 1: drop coverage just like he's done throughout this playoff run
Speaker 1: with a lot of weak side help. So the skip
Speaker 1: pass is gonna be what's open if slash when Miami
Speaker 1: wins games in this series, I think it's gonna be
Speaker 1: with one of the big factors is gonna be red
Speaker 1: hot three point shooting, specifically on those skip passes to
Speaker 1: the weak side with the way that Denver loads up
Speaker 1: on pick and roll. But here's the thing. Denver's defensive rotations,
Speaker 1: just like Miami's, are outstanding, and they're gonna get contests
Speaker 1: on those shots. They're not gonna be easy and they're
Speaker 1: not They're definitely not gonna lose shooters as frequently as
Speaker 1: Boston did. Boston was a very sloppy defense relative to
Speaker 1: the amount of talent that they had. Bam ISOs, he
Speaker 1: ran six ISOs and post ups versus Denver scored four
Speaker 1: points on him. He had one really nice quick move
Speaker 1: against nicolay Yo Kitchen a post up where he hit
Speaker 1: like two quick up fakes and then got to the
Speaker 1: baseline and made like a little bank shot off the glass.
Speaker 1: So he had like a significant quickness advantage there. But
Speaker 1: I don't expect that to play a significant part in
Speaker 1: the series, especially since Bam really kind of lost confidence
Speaker 1: over the course of that Celtics series and struggling to
Speaker 1: finish really anything. I think, like, obviously it's a wild card.
Speaker 1: You feed him a little bit early in Game one,
Speaker 1: and maybe he beats Jokic off the dribble a few times,
Speaker 1: and it kind of fuels his confidence and then everything
Speaker 1: gets better from there. But I don't expect it to
Speaker 1: be a huge part of this series which takes us
Speaker 1: to number three. Can Jimmy Butler play Nikolay Jokic to
Speaker 1: a draw? So as I look at this series, Miami's
Speaker 1: biggest advantage is the Jimmy Butler matchup hunting thing we
Speaker 1: saw the like. Lebron, for instance, was the best offensive
Speaker 1: player in the Lakers series for the Lakers right, and
Speaker 1: a big part of that was just the ability he
Speaker 1: had to not only make plays in high pick and roll,
Speaker 1: but to persistently bring weaker Denver defenders into the ball screens,
Speaker 1: get switches, and then work his way down to the block.
Speaker 1: And it was more challenging for Lebron because D'Angel Russell
Speaker 1: couldn't make a damn shot and Denis Shuter couldn't shoot
Speaker 1: off the move. So soon as they moved Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: off of Austin Reeves, they didn't really have a good
Speaker 1: option to go to because those picking pops or those
Speaker 1: ghost screens were going to guys who couldn't make a
Speaker 1: play when they would catch. Right, It's gonna be a
Speaker 1: little different than with Miami because Caleb Martin and gave
Speaker 1: Vincent him extrus are all red hot from three, and
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray's gonna have to guard one of those guys,
Speaker 1: and so you're gonna see a lot of Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: bringing Jamal Murray up into the screen and working him
Speaker 1: down on those clear side ISOs like we saw a
Speaker 1: lot against Boston. He had nine points on seven post
Speaker 1: ups and ISOs during the regular season, so well over
Speaker 1: a point per possession. He had some success against Jamal
Speaker 1: Murray with those typical little short jump shots that you've
Speaker 1: seen over the course of this playoff run. He was
Speaker 1: just toasting Michael Porter Junior off the dribble. He's just
Speaker 1: too slow. He did attack Jokic a few times on switches,
Speaker 1: and Yokic actually did a pretty nice job forcing him
Speaker 1: into contested jumpers, although Jimmy did make one of them.
Speaker 1: But I don't think Jimmy's gonna spend a ton of
Speaker 1: time attacking yokicchen switches. I just don't think that that's
Speaker 1: gonna be as you know, productive for them is attacking
Speaker 1: the guards. But again, that's Miami's biggest advantage in this series.
Speaker 1: Can Jimmy Butler do what he's done all playoffs, preferably
Speaker 1: like what he did in the first round, where he's
Speaker 1: great in every single game, just persistently attacking the weaker
Speaker 1: Denver defenders on the floor. My three points were brought
Speaker 1: to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. Earn five percent on
Speaker 1: travel through Chase, three percent on dining including takeout, three
Speaker 1: percent at drug stores, and one point five percent on
Speaker 1: everything else. How do you cast back? All Right? My pick,
Speaker 1: I'm going with Denver in six. My gut says Denver
Speaker 1: and five. But I just can't do that anymore with
Speaker 1: this Miami Heat team. They're just too good at finding
Speaker 1: a way to win basketball games. But I think Denver's
Speaker 1: too big. I think they're too smart to fall victim
Speaker 1: to some of Sposal's strategic plays. I think they're too
Speaker 1: confident and too good to fall victim to some of
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler's psychological intimidation. I think Jokics will consistently make
Speaker 1: them pay for weak defensive personnel in a way that
Speaker 1: others for the Heat have not been able to. I
Speaker 1: pretty much think they're better than Miami in every single
Speaker 1: way aside from the coaching staff. But I don't think
Speaker 1: that is gonna be enough to matter now. Miami's path,
Speaker 1: they need Jimmy Butler to dominate from start to finish,
Speaker 1: just like he did against Milwaukee and be the best
Speaker 1: player in the series. They need Eric Spolser to pull
Speaker 1: off the impossible and finally figure out a way to
Speaker 1: schematically disrupt Denver's offense when no one's been able to.
Speaker 1: They need red hot three point shooting from the role players,
Speaker 1: just like they had in the Celtics series. And they
Speaker 1: need some kind of major offensive contribution from one of
Speaker 1: the heat role players, whether like last round it was
Speaker 1: Caleb Martin, maybe it'll be like Bam out of Bio.
Speaker 1: Tyler Harrow again could make an appearance in this series.
Speaker 1: Maybe he's that guy. But they need someone else to
Speaker 1: average twenty points per game in this series, just simply
Speaker 1: because of how powerful Denver's offense is for them to
Speaker 1: have any chance to keep up. So I'm going with
Speaker 1: Denver in six. But that's Miami's path. We're gonna be
Speaker 1: doing breakdowns every single night after the game, and then
Speaker 1: during the two days off in between, we'll always do
Speaker 1: a film breakdown, so you're gonna get two videos for
Speaker 1: every single game during the NBA Finals. Like I said
Speaker 1: later this afternoon, I'm gonna be going with liv and
Speaker 1: she's our our biggest Nuggets fan on staff, so we're
Speaker 1: gonna talk a little bit about the Nuggets. They're going
Speaker 1: with the Nerd Sash guys on Wednesday and then obviously
Speaker 1: Game one on Thursday. As always, I appreciate you guys,
Speaker 1: and we'll see you next time. The volume