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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome back to the Betting Groves College

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Speaker 1: Football Show. This the program will take you around the

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Speaker 1: nation each week to sure you're making the best out

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Speaker 1: of the football season. Here from a sports betting perspective,

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Speaker 1: Today we'll re examine the odds and make some picks

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Speaker 1: for the week zero slate. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock,

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Speaker 1: and today I'm joined by a resident college football betting

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Speaker 1: expert here at VP Media, Mogul Steelers fan Scott Bogman.

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Speaker 1: Bog does it feel real? Does it feel like we're

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Speaker 1: this much close for the college football season being back

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Speaker 1: in action?

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Speaker 2: Man, I'm ready. Let's go.

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Speaker 3: We got a game day going to Ireland. There might

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Speaker 3: be some weather. There might be some weather in Hawaii

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Speaker 3: as well, like you know some It's only four games.

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Speaker 3: Usually we get seven or eight. There's more to pick from,

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Speaker 3: so it is a shorter slate. Maybe I'm a little

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Speaker 3: less excited than the last year, but I'm still It

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter, man, games account are happening this weekend and

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Speaker 3: I'm stoked.

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Speaker 2: Let's go.

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Speaker 1: It's back. Let's go here. Before we jump in, I

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Speaker 1: want to remind you about the Fast Breaks Bets podcast.

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Speaker 1: If you like Ben on basketball. Then join host Terarel

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Speaker 1: Furman on Fast Breaks Bets every single day for your

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Speaker 1: basketball needs. In fifteen minutes or less, tune in for

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Speaker 1: a rapid fire fix of all things basketball, from the

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Speaker 1: WNBA to the NBA two, college basketball and more. Check

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Speaker 1: out Fast Break Betts podcast on the Betting Pros YouTube

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Speaker 1: channel right here or wherever you listen to your podcast.

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Speaker 1: All right, and let's start in the land of the Irish.

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Speaker 1: Dublin hosts Florida State here and Georgia Tech as well. Boggs,

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Speaker 1: you predicted on Tuesday that this line would continue to

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Speaker 1: move down, and it has. Florida State went from being

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Speaker 1: about an eleven and a half point favorite down to

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Speaker 1: ten and a half point favorite here. You preach patients

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Speaker 1: on the line, but we're taking the over early at

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Speaker 1: fifty five and a half as well, according to bet

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Speaker 1: MGM here, a lot of the sharp money is coming

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Speaker 1: in on Georgia Tech. Does that change your mindset? Are

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Speaker 1: you still full steam ahead here on Florida State capturing

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Speaker 1: the value as the week progresses and that line drops, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think I'm still on the Florida State side, and

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Speaker 3: I think it's just honest to me it is the

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Speaker 3: difference in the roster strength, right. I just think Florida

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Speaker 3: State is such a better team. I know they're replacing

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Speaker 3: a lot and I'm even you know, in my best

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Speaker 3: in my win total show, I picked against Florida State.

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Speaker 2: I do think that they won't hit nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: So I think there are probably three losses in this schedule,

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Speaker 3: but not this one. This is a weird game, so

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Speaker 3: I understand the smart money being in on, you know,

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Speaker 3: the underdog, because why wouldn't it be.

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Speaker 2: It's a weird game.

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Speaker 3: There could be whether it's a lot of travel, this

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Speaker 3: is an experience. Georgia Tech group coming back, Florida State

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Speaker 3: is new with a lot of transfers to a lot

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Speaker 3: of positions. But I think really the big difference in

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Speaker 3: this game to me is the Florida State defensive line

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Speaker 3: against Haines King, the quarterback for Georgia Tech. He's just

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Speaker 3: not that great under pressure. I think we're gonna see

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Speaker 3: a lot of pressure. I think it's going to lead

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Speaker 3: to costly mistakes for GT and I think Florida State

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Speaker 3: wins this game kind of going away. So I'm on

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Speaker 3: the Florida State side.

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Speaker 1: Looking at some trends here, Boggs, Florida State is fourteen

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Speaker 1: and six against the spread in the Mike Norvel era

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Speaker 1: on the road or at neutral sites, so those would

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Speaker 1: back you up. Georgia Tech though, actually twelve and three

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Speaker 1: in the Brent Key era as an underdog here. So

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Speaker 1: a lot of mixed signals kind of going around the

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Speaker 1: internet right now. We're seeing it out there. Bogs is

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Speaker 1: saying stay the course here and back the Florida State

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Speaker 1: seminoles overseas. Let's move on to Montana State and New

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Speaker 1: Mexico here the clash between the FCS powerhouse Montana State

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Speaker 1: and the FBS fodder that is New Mexico. Boggs, you

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Speaker 1: once again we're on the right side of the line

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Speaker 1: movement here. This line open closer to seven and a

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Speaker 1: half crep up to nine. By Monday, it's ballooned all

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Speaker 1: the way up to eleven in favor of the Bobcats.

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Speaker 1: Is that too big now? Because the only thing for

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Speaker 1: me looking at some of these trends here is an

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Speaker 1: FCS teams only being an FBS team four times last season.

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Speaker 1: So with that being said, is eleven too big of

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Speaker 1: a number to back?

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Speaker 3: We're getting there? I don't know if that's too big yet.

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Speaker 3: And this is, by the way, is the biggest point

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Speaker 3: spread apparently for in FCS team now in favor of

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Speaker 3: an FBS team ever So, and this is because Montana

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Speaker 3: State comes in. They've replaced a lot from last season,

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Speaker 3: but they're still ranked in the coaches Ball fourth in FCS.

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Speaker 3: So this is one of the FCS best versus one

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Speaker 3: of the FBS worst, which is why even in a

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Speaker 3: road game, you're seeing Montana State being favored. I like

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Speaker 3: Broco menden Hall, but there's just not a lot of

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Speaker 3: talent at New Mexico. And I think Montana State is

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Speaker 3: going to score. I mean, last season they were second

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Speaker 3: in points per game in the FCS. They were first

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Speaker 3: in yards per play last season Montana State was, so

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Speaker 3: I think they have the good thing rolling in Montana State.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna stick with them. I think the.

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Speaker 1: Interesting thing here is there is a home field advantage

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Speaker 1: for New Mexico. But how big is it really Because

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Speaker 1: kids are just getting back to school now. I'm not

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Speaker 1: even sure if classes have started there for the semester,

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Speaker 1: so will we even see a path?

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Speaker 4: You have?

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Speaker 3: You watched a bunch of New Mexico at all, because

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Speaker 3: I haven't, and I've been around much longer than you.

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Speaker 3: But I tell you what, I was watching a couple

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Speaker 3: of years ago, and they had like a freshman on

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Speaker 3: the camera too, because he had no idea where to

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Speaker 3: move it, no idea where to go. I'm getting this

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Speaker 3: local feed. There's a spot on the camera too that

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Speaker 3: they haven't fixed. Like, it's just you know, there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be maybe ten thousand people at that stadium, and that

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Speaker 3: right that might maybe being pretty favorable, so it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be fairly empty.

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Speaker 2: I think Montana sty roles in this one.

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Speaker 1: All right, Bush League stuff, Bogs is saying over there,

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Speaker 1: before we keep it moving, I do want to remind

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Speaker 1: you if you're interested in a Betting Pros Premium free trial,

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Speaker 1: all you gotta do is download the Betting Pros app today.

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Speaker 1: Activate your free trial from the Betting Pros Premium Upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: You can get expert picks, projections, are prop bet Analyzer,

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Speaker 1: custom line alerts, and much more. For the NFL, NBA, MLB,

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Speaker 1: and of course college football. Go and get your free

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Speaker 1: trial for the bett and Pros Premium today. All right,

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Speaker 1: and we're moving forward here to the Week zero primetime

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Speaker 1: matchup between SMU, who won the AAC last year now

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Speaker 1: transition to the ACC. They're facing Nevada, a TOO and

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Speaker 1: ten team from last season. They're tearing it down, they're

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Speaker 1: rebuilding it here under Jeff Choke, and we were actually

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Speaker 1: on the wrong side of this one. I'd say, Bogs,

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Speaker 1: SMU has sent shrunk from a twenty seven and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorite down to twenty five point favorite. You

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Speaker 1: were already pretty high on SMU here, So do you

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Speaker 1: have the stones to back Preston Stone and the boys

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Speaker 1: on this line here? Bogs?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is I don't like the total

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Speaker 3: in this game because I just don't know how many

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Speaker 3: points Nevada is going to score, if any, right, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think this could be this honestly could be a shutout.

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Speaker 3: And this is a great tone center we're in the

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Speaker 3: ACC now, we drum out a smaller school like Nevada,

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Speaker 3: we look dominant doing it. I think it's what we're

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Speaker 3: gonna see from SMU in this game. So yeah, I

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Speaker 3: like that this game line is shrinking in favor of SMU.

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Speaker 2: I know it's a big line. A lot of people

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Speaker 2: don't like it.

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Speaker 3: I'll say you know the total again, probably the under

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Speaker 3: because I don't know about Nevada, but I'm laying those points.

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Speaker 3: I think this could be a thirty five to three,

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Speaker 3: thirty five to ten, you know, it could be it

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Speaker 3: could be a massive beat down. So I think that

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Speaker 3: twenty five points is pretty safe. So I'm gonna lay

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Speaker 3: the points and take SMU another favorite.

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Speaker 1: Usually common logic does tell us to bet the favorite

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Speaker 1: early in the week, so I was kind of surprised

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Speaker 1: to see this type of movement. Bogs, Do you expect

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Speaker 1: this number to keep moving down or do you think

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Speaker 1: twenty five is probably the best value we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: on SMU in these Mustangs here.

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Speaker 3: No, I think it's I think it's too big a

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Speaker 3: line for a team at home. I think that's what

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Speaker 3: the public is seeing and saying, Look, it's the first game.

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Speaker 3: Jeff Choate is a different coach. This team is going

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Speaker 3: to be better, and I expect them to be better

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Speaker 3: as well. I just SMU is bringing back so much

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Speaker 3: on defense and Nevada was so bad on offense last year.

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Speaker 3: It's such a major mismatch. Not even to mention SMU's

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Speaker 3: offense with a guy like Preston Stone, who's one of

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Speaker 3: the best qbs in the country. Right, So with that

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Speaker 3: offense and in particular at defense against Nevada, I just

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Speaker 3: see this as a absolute drubbing by the Mustangs.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's round it out here with Hawaii, where

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Speaker 1: the Rainbow Warriors will battle the Delaware State Hornets. This

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Speaker 1: is a Delaware State team that couldn't do much right

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Speaker 1: last season one to ten. They've now since missed their

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Speaker 1: flight because of a bus snafu on the way to

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Speaker 1: JFK Airport. They've been seen making TikTok dances in the

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Speaker 1: hallway of their hotel on their layover. They're having to

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Speaker 1: go through some mental gymnastics just to get to Honolulu. Here,

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Speaker 1: Does that make laying thirty nine points on Hawaii the

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Speaker 1: right move here?

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Speaker 3: Bogs ah Man, I don't know if I ever want

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Speaker 3: to like lay that many points on Hawaii winning a game.

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Speaker 3: But like we said with Montana State versus New Mexico, right,

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Speaker 3: you have one of the best in the FCS versus

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Speaker 3: one of the worst in the FBS.

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Speaker 2: It's a tale of two halves.

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Speaker 3: Here we have one of the worst in the FBS

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Speaker 3: in Hawaii versus one of the worst in the FCS.

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Speaker 3: But it's such a big difference, and they're coming. You know,

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Speaker 3: this isn't going from LA to Hawaii. This is going

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Speaker 3: from Delaware to Hawaii. And you missed a flight already

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Speaker 3: to go here. There might be some weather as well.

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Speaker 3: I guess if you want to bet Delaware State, I

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Speaker 3: guess the thing that would move you towards that way

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Speaker 3: is Chang saying they're not going to show a lot

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Speaker 3: in this game.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be very vanilla.

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Speaker 3: They have UCLA coming in next week, right, so they

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Speaker 3: want to save their firepower and not really show a

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Speaker 3: lot of their offense against Delaware State because they're not

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Speaker 3: gonna need it. But I don't think that really matters.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win this game going away anyway.

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Speaker 3: And you know this team was they had five wins

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Speaker 3: last season, a game away from Bowl eligibility. This could

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Speaker 3: be a tone setter game for you moving forward in

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Speaker 3: the season to kind of boost your confidence as well

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Speaker 3: if you're Hawaii. So I think they're gonna take this

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Speaker 3: time to step on the heads of Delaware State and

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Speaker 3: really try to make a statement here and look kind

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Speaker 3: of scary. So I think this is a Hawaii drubbing again.

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Speaker 3: The total I don't want to mess with because I

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Speaker 3: don't know if Delaware State scores at all.

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Speaker 2: And if we are.

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Speaker 3: Being vanilla, does that mean we're vanilla enough to pull

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Speaker 3: our starters when we're up thirty five zip and that's it,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's a bunch of backups after that, running

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Speaker 3: the ball and stuff.

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Speaker 2: So the total I won't touch.

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Speaker 3: But I like Hawaii and laying the points even with

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Speaker 3: this massive amount of points. I don't really like it,

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Speaker 3: and I won't be betting it, but I'll pick it here.

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Speaker 2: I would pick Okay for sure.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So tread with caution. Here is what Boggs is

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Speaker 1: kind of telling us. He's leaning that way. He's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily gonna have Hawaii on his betting card perhaps here,

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Speaker 1: but still swaying that way. If you guys want to

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Speaker 1: get invested here as well, And all right, that about

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Speaker 1: do it for us here today on the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: College Football Show. Boggs will be back later in the

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Speaker 1: week with his solo show. Give him some more best

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Speaker 1: bets and some player props as well. Until then, like

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Speaker 1: this video. If you enjoyed it, subscribe to the Betting

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00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,920
Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel and podcast feed, Plus download the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros app and sink your sportsbooks today. For Scott Bogman,

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Speaker 1: I'm set with Welcock. Thanks, folks, We'll see you next time.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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