1 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: Route from us. 2 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 2: If it doesn't work, you're just not using enough. You're 3 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: listening to Software Radio, Special Operations, Military Nails and straight 4 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 2: talk with the guys in the community. 5 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: Hey, what's going on? This is rad with another awesome 6 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 1: episode of soft Rep Radio. Now today is a return guest, 7 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 1: and you already know who it is because you've already 8 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: clicked on the title. I've learned that I'm like trying 9 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:47,919 Speaker 1: to hide who the guest is. I can't tell you. 10 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: I tell you about the merch store, right, I always 11 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: do that. Go check out softwap dot com forward slash 12 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: merch and pick up some branded items from our merch store. Right, 13 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: the Softwap lighters, the torchlights that we have super cool, 14 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,319 Speaker 1: lots of lumens, very bright in a dark, dark place. 15 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: I also have my fireplace going, so thank you for 16 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: buying the merch. Second, we have the book Club. You 17 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:12,760 Speaker 1: hear me say it all the time. That's soft rep 18 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: dot com Forward slash book Hyphened Club. Now, that's book 19 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: hyphen Club. Go go read a book, even if it's 20 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: not from the book club. Go read a book. Find 21 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: a book. Now. Today is the author of a book, 22 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: and let me read the title. Let's just get this 23 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: out of the way and then I'll introduce the author 24 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,759 Speaker 1: in this whole let's see here, Okay, So Curtis Fox 25 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: joins US today and he has written Hybrid Warfare, The 26 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: Russian Approach to Strategic Competition and Conventional Military Conflict, The 27 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: Russian Way. Now, Curtis, this book came out beginning of 28 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four into twenty twenty three, and it's out 29 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: right now where everyone can go find Hybrid Warfare under 30 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: Curtis Fox, who comes from the tenth Special Forces Group. 31 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: All right, Green Beret Special Forces, and we're going to 32 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: get into it about what's happening kind of what's going 33 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: on right now in Ukraine. Welcome, Welcome to the show. 34 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 3: Curtis, Hey, thank you very much for having me read. 35 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 4: It's it's good to see you again. 36 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: It's great to have you back. You know, I just 37 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: last time we talked, we were getting into you know 38 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: how you're such a subject matter expert, a SMI, someone 39 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 1: who has an understanding what's going on over in Eastern 40 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: Europe and like not just like in Russia, but like Warsaw, 41 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: like the whole entire shebang. 42 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:29,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, I try, but yeah, it's it's been a fun project, 43 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 3: and you know, it's been a lot of fun doing 44 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 3: the research on it. You know, it's been you know, 45 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 3: the subject a couple of my recently, you know, posted papers, 46 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 3: you know, like who in NATO is actually ready for war? 47 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 3: This was actually posted in Military Review recently, and you know, 48 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 3: I'd love to get into it. Why aren't sanctions working 49 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 3: on Russia? 50 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, why aren't they? Why aren't they Why aren't 51 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: sanctions are well, they probably are somewhat, but why aren't 52 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: they what we think should be working, right? Who's helping them? 53 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: Who are the actors? 54 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 3: Well, it's a fascinating case study because sanctions regime that's 55 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 3: been erected against Russia has kind of horrified the Chinese 56 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 3: and the Iranians. But Russia is unique. They are one 57 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 3: of the world's largest energy producers. They are on par 58 00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 3: with Saudi Arabia, and they most of that oil and 59 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 3: gas is going to Western Europe. And then on top 60 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 3: of that, they're the world's largest grains producer. So to 61 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 3: the quality of Russian farmland is actually relatively poor, but 62 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 3: they have an enormous amount of it, and it's you know, 63 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 3: it's kind of one of these funny things. The Volga 64 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 3: River is a relatively small river compared to other major 65 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 3: bodies of water, like you know, the Mississippi, the Rhine, 66 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 3: But for the Russians it's a super highway and it 67 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 3: brings all that grain to market. 68 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 4: To cut Russia totally. 69 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 3: Out of the world economy, you know, immediately would have 70 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 3: produced mass famine, especially in the Middle East and Africa, 71 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 3: where a lot of the Russian grains are exported. But 72 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 3: it would also produce an energy crisis almost immediately. The 73 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: Germans in particular, have very much integrated economically with Russia. 74 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 3: Russia produces a lot of the raw materials that this, 75 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 3: you know, the high powered German industrial machine needs. It's 76 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 3: not just a recent innovation. I mean this is that 77 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 3: was the case, you know, dating back to World War Two. 78 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 3: That was the backbone of the molotav Ribbon drop pact 79 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 3: between Germany and the Soviet Union. Is it was not 80 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 3: merely a non aggression pact. The Germans rebuilt the Wehrmacht 81 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 3: and then the Luftwaffa with raw materials out of the 82 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 3: Soviet Union. That economic relationship, you know, has has created 83 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 3: I don't want to say an alliance of convenience, but 84 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 3: they have aligned interests and it took Russia invading Ukraine 85 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 3: to really disturb Berlin to such a point that they 86 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 3: were willing to break that economic relationship with Russia. And 87 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 3: now the Europeans are learning exactly how difficult it is 88 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 3: to kind of unenthrall themselves from Russian energy exports. They've 89 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 3: been more accessful with natural gas, which relies on pipelines, 90 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: but crude is a little bit easier to ship to 91 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 3: alternative third party destinations, and so it's very easy for 92 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 3: third party countries to basically, you know, just take a 93 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 3: middleman handler's fee and then ship. 94 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 4: It to Europe. 95 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,559 Speaker 3: And so Europe is getting Russian oil, but it looks 96 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: like it passed through India, or it passed through Turkey 97 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 3: or you know, another middleman partner. 98 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 4: So it's it's the straw mans, right. 99 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 1: Yeah. 100 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 3: They cannot turn off those those oil wells either, especially 101 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 3: not in the urals, because they're in the permafrost, and 102 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 3: they don't have the technology to turn them back on. 103 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 1: Because it's always cold. That has to stay warm, like 104 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: your pipes have to keep dripping in the winter or 105 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: else they'll freeze up. And so they have to always 106 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: just keep it, keep it going. So like that's what 107 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: the whole thing about trying to annex Crimea, rush, trying 108 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: to take over Crimea is about the pipeline and the 109 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: port and the whole outlet to the ocean right there 110 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 1: for what we call the bread basket of the world. 111 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 3: Right, Yes, that's definitely a part of it. The Sevastopol 112 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 3: Naval Base is also in Crimea, and it's Crimea is 113 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 3: not just a strategic location for oil and gas, it's 114 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 3: also it's the means through which Russia projects their naval 115 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 3: power into the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea in 116 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 3: the Indian Ocean. And for Russia to lose the Sevastipul 117 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 3: naval base and dominance in the Black Sea is to 118 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 3: basically sever their their capacity to project power in a 119 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 3: large portion of the world. 120 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 1: They should probably just look at America's fleet and how 121 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: much we love our boats and just say that's the 122 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: same thing right now, we love our boats. Don't touch 123 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 1: our boats. Don't touch our boats. Don't touch our boats. 124 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: Don't do it. Don't you do it, don't you do it, 125 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 1: don't you do it? So, I mean, you know, you 126 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: can either battle us about our boats, or you can 127 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: just think they're really serious about their boats. And that's 128 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: all of you out there on your boats. Okay, kick 129 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: that kick some button now right now on the boats. 130 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: Kind of talking curve all right here. You know, you 131 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: have a strike group going over to the sea in 132 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: between Iran and trying to flex right now, a whole 133 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: carrier group's going over there. You've got another front in 134 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: Ukraine going on that's being escalated into Russia held occupational 135 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: territory You've got, and Russia is now starting to have 136 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: to you know, like do we have to go underground? 137 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: Do we hide our people or walk around freely in 138 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,559 Speaker 1: a city where they're blowing up freely walking around people 139 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: in a city. So it's kind of coming back at Russia. 140 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: So you have US is definitely out there. I think 141 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 1: we're trying to like stay off the Iranian situation. Okay, like, 142 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: hey we're here. F eighteen's inland, lots of things that 143 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: can fly, lots of really powerful equipment that we have 144 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: on our boats. Russia, chill out, back off. Let Ukrainian 145 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: people just have a regular place. What do you think? 146 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:52,119 Speaker 1: What do you think should they just back off? Should 147 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: they just stop? Yeah? Give Ukraine up, just stop pushing 148 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: in on it, because do you think anybody's gonna let 149 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: it ever go to them? 150 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: Well, I don't think that there's a lot of middle 151 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 3: ground in the case with Russia. Russia exists on the 152 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 3: vast northern Eurasian step. They don't really have any geographic barriers, 153 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 3: and so for most of Russia's history, their only way 154 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 3: to achieve a degree of security was simply to grow 155 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 3: and expand and absorb those new tribes and ethnicities that 156 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 3: they encountered into the Russian collective. And so they you know, 157 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 3: by the time of you know, the Csars, you know, 158 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 3: that Russia had evolved already into a multi ethnic empire, 159 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 3: and that was really the only form of government that 160 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 3: they could have mastered. Since the time of Peter the Great, 161 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 3: you know, and Catherine the Great, Lenin Stalin and Novladim Reputin, 162 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 3: the goal has always been to grow Russia so that 163 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:50,720 Speaker 3: they can anchor their political boundaries on hard geographic barriers. 164 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 3: So that'd be you know, the Gobi Desert, that would 165 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 3: be the Carpathian Mountains in the west, that would be 166 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 3: the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, that would be the 167 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:02,680 Speaker 3: Caucasus mountains to the southwest, and that's what that's the 168 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 3: strategy that Vladimir Putin is pursuing. Stalin actually reached the 169 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,679 Speaker 3: epigy of that strategy at the end of World War 170 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 3: Two and he conquered all the countries of Eastern Europe 171 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 3: and he wrestled them, you know, under the you know, 172 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 3: end of Moscow's orbit, and then he had heavy ground 173 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 3: forces and tactical nuclear ordinance forward stationed in East Germany 174 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 3: on the western side of the fold of Gap. That 175 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 3: is the Russian definition of security. That strategic paradigm collapsed 176 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 3: with the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia is 177 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 3: now now that they've regained a degree of stability under 178 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin, they're pursuing the same strategy, and you know, 179 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 3: it's going to take them a long time to ever, 180 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 3: you know, potentially regain. 181 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 4: That defense and depth. 182 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 3: But when we see all of these little, you know, 183 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 3: military interventions, you know, the Crimean annexation, or maybe the 184 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 3: Russo Georgian War in two thousand and eight, the war 185 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 3: in Syria, all of these little interventions and skirmishes are 186 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 3: in service of those larger strategic goals. And what we 187 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 3: absolutely cannot allow to happen. Is for the Russians to 188 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 3: think that they can sneak, you know, as vlat Reputant 189 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 3: turned them, you know, little green men, you know, spetsnash troops, 190 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 3: you know, conducting some sort of a soft coup in Warsaw. 191 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 3: Let's say, you know, let's just say they start doing 192 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 3: cross border bombardments into Poland or something like that, like 193 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 3: they did with you know, the you know, in the 194 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 3: pre hour engagements before the Russo Georgian War actually became hot, 195 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 3: or you know, they you know, the little green men 196 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 3: that basically seized control of the Crimean parliamentary building in 197 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 3: twenty and twenty fourteen. 198 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 4: The Poles have been well. 199 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 3: First they endured systematic extermination under the Germans, and then 200 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 3: after that they endured another forty years of slavery under 201 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 3: communism at the direction of Moscow. And they are not 202 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 3: going to allow themselves to ever be dominated by an 203 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 3: outside power again. And you know, when the Russians do 204 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 3: these little passive aggressive things to try to move the 205 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 3: ball forward in pursuit of these larger strategic goals, I 206 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 3: guarantee you the polls will have none of it. And 207 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 3: so this strategic calculus in US supporting Ukraine is to 208 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 3: make sure that the Russians can never border you know, 209 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 3: some of our major NATO partners that might invoke Article 210 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 3: five and drag US into a grand war against the 211 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 3: regime in Moscow. And that's that's really the reason that 212 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 3: we have a strategic interest in ensuring that the government 213 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 3: in Kiev survives. 214 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: Dang. Yeah, right, And also not to think that that's 215 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 1: not beneath the Russian Empire of today if you want to, 216 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: if he wants to go back to being called that, 217 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: you know, they're sending missiles through the airspace of neighboring 218 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: country is right now, you know, they're like also hitting 219 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: facilities within those Like didn't it hit Poland in this 220 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: last this current conflict that they're in right now in Ukraine, 221 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: wasn't there like something about a missile that had hit 222 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,719 Speaker 1: inside of the country, And they're like, hey, you know 223 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: it was a Russian missile. It cut through the airspace 224 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: to get into Ukraine, right, they don't care. 225 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, that was a nasty black eye. And everybody in 226 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 3: that particular engagement immediately rushed to say that, hey, look, 227 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 3: this might not have been a Russian missile. Number One 228 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 3: but number two, if it was a Russian missile, it 229 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 3: was an accident. None of this was on purpose, and 230 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 3: this is all something that we should just forget about. 231 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 3: And they all, you know, the State Department and you 232 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 3: know a number of NATO allies. 233 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 4: Immediately were on top of that. 234 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 3: And the reason for that is because that that Jacob's 235 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 3: ladder can can escalate very quickly and very dangerously. So 236 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 3: it's it's important to make sure that it's a tense situation, 237 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 3: let's just say, and it's important to make sure that 238 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 3: you have a fire ech thing, wish your handy. 239 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: I mean, really, they don't want you to remember, but 240 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 1: Pepperidge Farms remembers. Okay, okay, can't pull one over. I mean, 241 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: especially if you live through the situation and kind of 242 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 1: saw things or heard things or you know, news flash, 243 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: that's just in. You know, everybody's on the ground immediately, 244 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: TikTok's going off, someone some kids filming the burning building. 245 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: You know, it's like you can't get away from really 246 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: what's going down these days, which also uh, you know, 247 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: inflace the situation heavily, you know, because it just takes 248 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 1: one crazy social media post to like send the algorithm 249 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: into a flurry sending it to people who believe propaganda. 250 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, Yeah, it's a big problem. 251 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 3: Unfortunately too, we're starting to there's a problem first where 252 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 3: you know, people are proving to be quite susceptible to propaganda. 253 00:13:57,920 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 1: One. 254 00:13:58,920 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 4: Two. 255 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 3: There there's also emerging somewhat of a consensus amongst governments 256 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 3: that they have the right to control information flows over 257 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 3: their respective populations. And it's very very difficult. Two, it's 258 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 3: very difficult to manage these things. I would consider it 259 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 3: analogous to the emergence of the printing press in a 260 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 3: lot of ways, we're dabbling in new technologies in the 261 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 3: age of the Internet and the age of social media 262 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 3: that had never been tried before. And in many ways 263 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 3: social media is playing a role right now in global 264 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 3: politics that the emergence of the printing press and the 265 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 3: targeted political pamphlet and pamphleteering campaigns played in the French Revolution. 266 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 3: And that's kind of a terrifying prospect as to where 267 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 3: this can go and how this can end up if 268 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 3: we are if we are not level headed. 269 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: Yeah really, Because I mean when I was working for 270 00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: this internet company back in early two thousands, we were the 271 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: internet was only like fifteen years old, okay, And we 272 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: would always talk about it as she's only fifteen years old. 273 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: What happens to a fifteen year old? What's going through? 274 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: You know, what's a fifteen year old going through in 275 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: their life? And now all of a sudden you flash forward, 276 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 1: it's another fifteen years from that time when I was 277 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: doing that, and now she's thirty years old. So what 278 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 1: is a thirty year old just going to be doing? 279 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: You know, the internet is just becoming We don't even 280 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: know the power of what TikTok can do, Like you know, 281 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: you think it's just going to show you selling your 282 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: shoes online, you know, or you know, but it can 283 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: be the power of it can either like say hey 284 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: look at this person, did this? Or start a war. 285 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,680 Speaker 1: Maybe a keystroke, not a gunshot, is what creates this 286 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: situation to be nasty. You know, it's more of a 287 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: keystroke type situation. It's happening also within our own country, 288 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: right we have our own blood on blood Americans, if 289 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: you will just kind of like looking at each other 290 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: like are we all Americans or what? You know, like 291 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: we should all just be under the flag. But it's 292 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: just kind of a divisive situation out there with social media, 293 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 1: and I just want to kind of call it out. 294 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 1: I'm not saying anything specific, because you know, you've got 295 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: to just know what you're looking at. He's got to realize, say, like, 296 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: I don't know, how do you fact check what something 297 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: seems to be fact checked? You know? How do you 298 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: just do use go with your gut? 299 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 4: Well, I can. 300 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 3: I can tell you one positive thing that has emerged 301 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 3: at the diplomatic level that you know, has gotten some 302 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 3: press attention recently in our relationship with Russia's We've had 303 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 3: that recent prisoner exchange, right, that's a reoccurring indicator that 304 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 3: we have some backchannels that are open with the Russians. 305 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 3: We are not entirely at the whims of the you know, 306 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 3: the whiplash effect of let's say, social media, you know, 307 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 3: stigmatizing a particular issue that then has to drive government 308 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 3: policy on that particular issue. 309 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 4: We are at least. 310 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 3: Able to exchange information with them in a substantive way. 311 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 3: And that's a I think that's a very very positive sign. 312 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 3: And it wasn't a particularly good deal, and that's we 313 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 3: can kind of get into the mechanics of the deal 314 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 3: a little bit. But the fact that we're talking to 315 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 3: them in a substantive way is very encouraging. 316 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 1: Right, because they didn't have to do anything. They could 317 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: have left their guy alone and just left. You know. 318 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: It was Paul, right, Paul Whalan, who was serving a 319 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: sixteen year prison sentence, and he had been excluded from 320 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: prior high profile dealings involving Russia, including in the twenty 321 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 1: twenty two swap of the marine veteran Tredvor Reed. But 322 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: they finally got him back August second, twenty twenty four. 323 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 1: And I think we all saw President Biden meet him 324 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: and like tell him welcome home and take his American 325 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,639 Speaker 1: flag off, just like like kind of like a dad. 326 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: I just have to say I watched that situation and 327 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: he was just like, what do I have on me 328 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,920 Speaker 1: right now that I can just give you to let 329 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: you know, here you go, here's your flag, you know, 330 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: welcome home. And I don't know, I don't think you can. 331 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: It just got done, right, he came home. He's home. 332 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 1: So yeah, do we have others still over there that 333 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 1: are waiting to come home or did we get the 334 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:05,479 Speaker 1: last of those guys. 335 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 3: I'm sure we still have more political prisoners in Russia 336 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 3: and Whalen wasn't He was one of sixteen. 337 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 4: I think another one was a Wall Street journal journalist. 338 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 3: A lot of the people that we traded for a 339 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 3: few of them weren't even Westerners. They were members of 340 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 3: Alexiavolney's campaign staff, right, And so you know, we glorified 341 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 3: Navalney maybe a little too much in the West. I 342 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 3: think we kind of misunderstand him a little bit. That's 343 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 3: a separate conversation. But you know, as a as a 344 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 3: potential liberal reformer in Russia, he was a sharp critic 345 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 3: of the Kremlin and he insisted on, you know, seeing 346 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 3: changes made in Russia and Russian policy, we need to 347 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 3: applaud him for that. And the Kremlin basically they had 348 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 3: him killed. Let's they harassed him politically for years and 349 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 3: finally they finally he was eliminated as a threat. 350 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: You know, they're trying to get him and his kid 351 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: and his family and anybody around him and anybody who 352 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: was for him. They kept changing the rules if you 353 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: like Navalny in Russia. So from he's again he's not 354 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: a political prisoner. Okay, maybe he's a political prisoner. If 355 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 1: you like him, now you're going to be looked at 356 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: that way, and now now he's a terrorist. Now you're 357 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 1: part of a terrorist organization. Oh, now it's a banned organization. 358 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: It's not even allowed anymore. And if you even say 359 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: his name, you're going to be shot. It's kind of 360 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: gotten to that point. 361 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 3: And it's unfortunate that we had to trade. You know, 362 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 3: the people that we traded to the Russians that they 363 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,720 Speaker 3: were almost all of them deep cover Russian spies, whether 364 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 3: they were working for the GRU or the FSB, or 365 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 3: maybe one or two of them for the SVR. I 366 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 3: don't think the administration has relied. They've told us who 367 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 3: I don't think they've announced officially what agencies these individuals 368 00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 3: worked for. I've seen it on open source media, but 369 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 3: that doesn't necessarily mean it's true. But all of these 370 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 3: guys were allegedly deep cover Russian operatives. So the old 371 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 3: you know, the Soviet Union had the old common Turn program. 372 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 3: There's a little fascinating history behind Russian deep cover spies 373 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 3: if you want to go into it. So you know, 374 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 3: during this the Soviet experiment with communism during the twenties 375 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 3: and thirties, there were still many in the West that 376 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 3: were very enamored with the idea of communism, and so 377 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 3: they went to Russia to watch the experiment, and a 378 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 3: lot of them came from the Western universities Russia. 379 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 1: Well. 380 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 3: Stalin in particular treated them with a great deal of suspicion. 381 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 3: Some of them were true believers, and he had them 382 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 3: come back to the West to basically work as spies 383 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 3: in the institutions of the West, but a lot of 384 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 3: them were killed. They were simply purged in the late thirties, 385 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 3: along with a large portion of the officer corps of 386 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 3: the Red Army, which is why Russia performed so poorly 387 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 3: in the Winter War when they invaded Finland. To replace 388 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 3: all of these intellectuals who had been working as spies, 389 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 3: they started the common Tern Program, which was meant to 390 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 3: take Russian peasants and train them in language and basic 391 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 3: trade crafts so that they could be spies. And out 392 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 3: of that common Tern Program eventually evolved this thing called 393 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 3: the Illegals program, which was a top top secret program 394 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,879 Speaker 3: within the KGB where they would basically, you know, go 395 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 3: into a foreign country and they would pretend as though 396 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 3: they had been citizens in that country their entire lives, 397 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 3: and they were board and raised there and then they 398 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 3: would try to you know, navigate their careers into the institutions. 399 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 3: And there's a legacy that still you know, functions from that. 400 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 3: It's run by the SVR, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, 401 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 3: and they still train you know, deep cover operatives and 402 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 3: they will take you know, like a birth certificate, you know, 403 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 3: from a child in let's say Canada or the United 404 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 3: States or the United Kingdom or you know, pick the 405 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 3: west in country, right, and they will take you know, 406 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 3: that birth certificate from that child that probably died in 407 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 3: childbirth or maybe they died early in life for whatever reason, 408 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 3: and they'll construct a paper trail as though that child 409 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 3: had grown up to adulthood. And when that, you know, 410 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 3: then they'll have they'll have their person go to that 411 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 3: country and assume that identity that they've created the paper 412 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,919 Speaker 3: trail for. And it gets more fascinating because you know, 413 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 3: now we're in the digital age and so they're creating. 414 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 4: The old digital paper trail for it. 415 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 3: But it gets even more fascinating because very often what 416 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 3: they'll do is they will take you know, a man 417 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 3: and a woman who have let's say compatible personalities and 418 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 3: seem to get along fairly well in training and then 419 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 3: they'll just say, well, hey, look, why don't you guys 420 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 3: get married here in Russia, And so you can be 421 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,679 Speaker 3: married officially, and then you're going to go to the West, 422 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 3: and you're going to assume these two separate identities, and 423 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 3: you're going to magically meet at a university and you're 424 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 3: going to get married in date, and you're going to 425 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 3: get married in the presence of Western friends. You're going 426 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 3: to grow up and raise a family in the West, 427 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 3: and you're going to have children in the West, and 428 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 3: everyone's just going to think that you're a normal Canadian 429 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:15,720 Speaker 3: family or an American family or whatever. And and so 430 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 3: in this particular prisoner exchange, the people that we gave 431 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 3: to Russia were all these these very very expensive, you know, 432 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 3: highly trained career deep cover operatives and in one of 433 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 3: and two miners went with them. So we gave the 434 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 3: Russians eight individuals plus two miners, and those miners were 435 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 3: most likely, you know, kids, Western kids of that relationship 436 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 3: that had only been waste in the West. The last 437 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 3: big prisoner exchange we did was in twenty ten, and 438 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 3: that was this big illegals ring that the FBI uncovered 439 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 3: in the United States, and there was two of these kids, 440 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 3: you know were they were. They were the children of 441 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 3: these Russian spies and they had believed they were Canadian 442 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 3: their whole lives, and they were deported to Russia and 443 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 3: they're like, we don't even speak Russian, and so they're 444 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 3: suing to try to get their Canadian citizenship back, which 445 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 3: is very funny. 446 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,119 Speaker 1: Because they were born there and the parents were living 447 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 1: the the lie and that the kids were just part 448 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: of the plot. They were just they were a prop. 449 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 3: You have to feel bad for them because I mean, 450 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 3: their you know, their lives were led upside down. But 451 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 3: you know, if I were the Canadian government, I would 452 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 3: do the same thing. 453 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 1: It was all just farce. Think about the miners, you know, 454 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: like being possibly the children of the embedded spies. I've 455 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 1: been over here and you know, Red Dawn, it's among us. Huh, 456 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 1: holy jow. 457 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:47,479 Speaker 3: It really is. Bro And I tell you where this 458 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,399 Speaker 3: gets really interesting. So the Europeans, We've been pestering the 459 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 3: Europeans for years to take Russian intelligence seriously. The Russians, 460 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 3: they have a couple of cardinal characteristics about collection. Part 461 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 3: of it is it depends on who in Russia is 462 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 3: collecting on you right. So the SVR is known for 463 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 3: being very chic and sophisticated, and you know they will 464 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 3: they will assess a target for a decade, waiting for 465 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 3: the right opportunity to bump this person and approach them 466 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 3: with a proposition. You know, probably when they're low in 467 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 3: their career or something or something bad just happened to 468 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 3: them and they need support, or maybe they're in debt. 469 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 3: The GRU almost all the GRU spies, and the GREU 470 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 3: runs about six times more operatives abroad than the SVR does, 471 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,959 Speaker 3: but almost all of them are former spets nesmen, and 472 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 3: so they approach it with a very you know, military demeanor. 473 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,199 Speaker 3: They look very physically fit. I mean they look like, 474 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,159 Speaker 3: you know, a veteran looks, and they tend to approach 475 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,960 Speaker 3: a problem in terms of this is the solution we need, 476 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 3: this is the leverage we have, So this is the 477 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 3: amount of force that we have to apply with this 478 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 3: particular tool. They are not as appreciative of the sensitivities 479 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 3: of international relations, which is why you hear about the 480 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 3: GRU doing hand fisted things like a coup and Montenegro 481 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 3: or you know, the assassination attempt on Sergei Scripio in 482 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:17,840 Speaker 3: the UK. That one hand fisted attempt cost Russia the 483 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 3: using nerve agent you on foreign soil to assassinate this guy. 484 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 3: The Europeans all collaborated together to expel something like one 485 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 3: hundred and fifty career Russian intel officers from Europe, and 486 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 3: then maybe I think another fifty were expelled from the 487 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 3: United States, all persona on GRADA and so the you know, 488 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 3: the the strategic intelligence that Russia lost from that one 489 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 3: hand fisted thing was extraordinary, which is why the head 490 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,399 Speaker 3: of the gru was very quietly relieved, and he later 491 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 3: died from stress. We don't know if that was what 492 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,679 Speaker 3: kind of stress that was. Maybe he accidentally fell in 493 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 3: a lake with you know, tied to a chair. 494 00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:58,479 Speaker 4: We don't know. 495 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: But right and here here in Utah, we had for 496 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: some time a Russian base in the desert. I know 497 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: where that's at. It's now just you can go there 498 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 1: and if you go into it, you can still find 499 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 1: old magazines from like the nineties, maybe early nineties, when 500 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: they had to just leave, like all of a sudden 501 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 1: something happened and everybody had to just like leave the country, 502 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,159 Speaker 1: get out. It was like something about the the you know, 503 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: and this this base still exists out here. I've been 504 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: out there. We filmed the movie at it, you know, 505 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: it's used as a location, and we were kind of 506 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: wandering around this whole old base and everything was all 507 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: in Russian and I was just looking at it. I'm like, 508 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 1: I've been in Utah like pretty much my whole adult life, 509 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: and I don't ever recall, you know, ever hearing about 510 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: this base out here, and there it is, you know, 511 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 1: and I was like, wow, is is it healthy to 512 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: be here? Like, you know, did the production crew like 513 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: get a Geiger counter out here? And it's a whole 514 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 1: bunch of like quantcet huts that go in the base 515 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,120 Speaker 1: in the ground, and there's just it's still set up. 516 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: It's just like they left everything just laid out clipboards, 517 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 1: you know, magazines, just you know, so there was we 518 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 1: had we had an alliance with them. At one point 519 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:04,719 Speaker 1: we were talking. 520 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 3: They probably did literally stop and leave. They probably got 521 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 3: a call from Moscow that said, hey, look, you know, 522 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,120 Speaker 3: the KGB is collapsing, the Soviet Union is collapsing. Come back, 523 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,879 Speaker 3: you know, get out of country while you can. One 524 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,159 Speaker 3: of the things that happened in the fall of the 525 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 3: Soviet Union was that the KGB basically lost all of 526 00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 3: the funding lines that allowed it to run its front 527 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 3: companies and to pay its agents abroad, and so the 528 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 3: the first chief director of the KGB would eventually evolve 529 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 3: into the SVR, but there were a couple of early 530 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 3: years there where they lost almost all of their foreign 531 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 3: intelligence collection apparatus simply because they didn't have a means 532 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 3: of moving money abroad. That had to all be rebuilt. 533 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,800 Speaker 3: And it's when you have a facility like that and 534 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 3: you've got personnel that are running it and using it, 535 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 3: and then suddenly all their resources are cut off and 536 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,480 Speaker 3: you have to call them and tell them that, hey, 537 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 3: like we you know, there's political chaos here and there's 538 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 3: every opportunity that somebody's going to flip and it's going 539 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 3: to burn you guys. We highly recommend you get out 540 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: of country. 541 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:14,320 Speaker 1: You know. 542 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 3: I have a feeling almost every one of them, you know, 543 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 3: took them, took that warning. 544 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: Uarly and left. Yeah, because it's just like the place. 545 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 1: If you knew where this was, you'd be like, yeah, rah, 546 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:28,760 Speaker 1: this is in the middle of nowhere, and they just left, right. 547 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 4: I mean. 548 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 3: But here's the other thing, too, is the you know, 549 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 3: the the KGB had units like VMPLE, and VIMPLE still exists, 550 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,600 Speaker 3: it's it's run by the FSB now. But VMPLE was 551 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 3: literally responsible for decapitating foreign governments in the event of war. 552 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 3: And they were the VMPLE operatives were recruited primarily from 553 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 3: the Illegals program, right, so they were all they all learned, 554 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 3: you know, three foreign languages, and they were they were 555 00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 3: trained as spies before they started getting you know, Tier 556 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 3: one Special Missions Unit training, and they were you know, 557 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 3: these were people that were very very well trained and 558 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 3: infiltrating countries and eliminating political and military leadership. And that 559 00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 3: unit still exists today. And they had always planned on 560 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 3: using their their operatives abroad to facilitate their you know, 561 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:25,720 Speaker 3: vmple's country access. So it's uh, you know, it's I 562 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 3: would imagine that facility was set up for a reason 563 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 3: and that they had they had a particular purpose in 564 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 3: mind for it. 565 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, something about the nuclear program or something along those lines. 566 00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 1: And they were sharing scientists with the US and that 567 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,520 Speaker 1: was their area. And I remember growing up my daddy 568 00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: in Green Beret out here in Utah. We would go 569 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 1: up a down I fifteen and he'd always point as 570 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,960 Speaker 1: we were going to like Camp Williams. He'd say, you 571 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 1: see those lights on the mountains out there. He's like, 572 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 1: those are Russians. And I was like, oh, and it 573 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 1: was called Hercules back in the day. And uh. I'd 574 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 1: look over there, and I'd always think to myself, those 575 00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,240 Speaker 1: orange lights that went down the mountain with this like 576 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: set in shape configuration. Every day i'd see that when 577 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 1: we drive by. I'd be like, Oh, that's the Russians. 578 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 1: He'd always point that out. Yeah, yeah, yeah, right there. 579 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: I could like literally look out my window here in Sandy, 580 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 1: Utah and look to the face of the mountain over 581 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:19,360 Speaker 1: where Kennicott Copper, the world's largest pit mine, is located 582 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 1: across my valley. Right here, just to the north of it, 583 00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,960 Speaker 1: on the same face was a place called Hercules, And wow, 584 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: that's what I'm just that's that's a place that I 585 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: don't know what's going on there today or what's happened then. 586 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: But the place I was talking about, the desert place, 587 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,000 Speaker 1: it's deserted. That place, it's deserted. This place this is 588 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,240 Speaker 1: right here in the city, in the valley, And so 589 00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: he would always just point out, you know, hey, that's 590 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 1: a Russians are right there. I was like, okay, calledge 591 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 1: out hercules. Comment down below, go ahead, comment down below. 592 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: And then also I was learning or maybe I was 593 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,959 Speaker 1: just knowledgeable about this, But isn't there like a destabilization 594 00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 1: process to like try to decapitate the countries democracy and 595 00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 1: cause it to go into like a sown disc sort 596 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: of civil war that Putin kind of has a place 597 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,800 Speaker 1: list of where he could like change and try to 598 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: help devalue the currency, you know, so discourse and like 599 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: all these different types of you know, step one, step 600 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 1: two B. He's going down right now. 601 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 3: So I mean, this is the essence of my book, right, 602 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 3: this is the thesis I haven't under Russian hybrid warfare. 603 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 3: And yes, it's you know, when they need to bring 604 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 3: a neighbor to heal Let's say, you know, a very 605 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 3: good example is Ukraine during the Crimean annexation or maybe Georgia. Yeah, 606 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 3: it starts with sanctions and you know, debt pressure. They'll 607 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 3: use whatever energy leverage they have. So in the case 608 00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 3: of Ukraine, you know, in the war in Dnbas and 609 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 3: the Crimean annexation in twenty fourteen, they insisted that they 610 00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 3: could renegotiate all the national gas contracts so that Youians 611 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 3: can get a little more of a dividend. But then 612 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 3: when the Ukrainians didn't take debate, they informed Ukraine that 613 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,959 Speaker 3: all the gas blows were being cut off immediately and 614 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 3: you're going to have to forward pay for everything that 615 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 3: you want and that you know, that causes a panic 616 00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,560 Speaker 3: attack amongst the industry leaders and they start lobbying Kiev. 617 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 3: Then the next you know, if that doesn't get them 618 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 3: what they want. In twenty fourteen, they were trying to 619 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:28,320 Speaker 3: prevent Ukraine from joining the European Union, then you know, 620 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 3: the next step is to start creating. 621 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 4: Protests and riots. 622 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,080 Speaker 3: Maybe you start bribing some public officials to not send 623 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 3: out the police to put down those mass protests. You 624 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 3: might you know, you might bribe certain members of the 625 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:46,200 Speaker 3: military to keep their units bottled up on garrison. And 626 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,400 Speaker 3: then the next step is to start, you know, moving 627 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 3: your operatives into country and targeting those protests to seize 628 00:33:54,320 --> 00:34:00,240 Speaker 3: terrain and erect barricades that frustrate civil services from being 629 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:04,800 Speaker 3: able to respond to problems in country and to maneuver freely. 630 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 3: And then you might actually start bringing in soft elements 631 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:15,839 Speaker 3: that secure key objectives eliminate key critical leadership, and then ultimately, 632 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,719 Speaker 3: whatever those gains are that you're trying to make, you're 633 00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 3: going to surge in heavy ground forces to relieve the 634 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 3: soft units that do the initial contact so that you 635 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,280 Speaker 3: can entrench those gains. And that that's essentially the process 636 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 3: of hybrid warfare. So the three terms that the Russians 637 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 3: used to describe this or maskodovka, which is Russian for camouflage, 638 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,160 Speaker 3: but it essentially means that they want to operate through 639 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 3: a hidden hand. Then activenosts, which is activity, and that 640 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 3: simply means all the little things that you're doing to 641 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,279 Speaker 3: frustrate the host nation government the target nations government to 642 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,840 Speaker 3: respond to the crisis. And then vinyezebnos, which means surprise, 643 00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:01,560 Speaker 3: and that's that's the speedy let's see, that's the speedy 644 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 3: seizure of limited objectives to achieve your campaign goals. And 645 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:09,440 Speaker 3: those three things together are I argue that defining characteristics 646 00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 3: of a Russian hybrid war. 647 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,560 Speaker 1: Wow. So I'm not trying to, like, you know, causeity 648 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 1: panic here, but that would have been a good opportunity 649 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 1: during the twenty twenty twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two 650 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: time frame when you know, everybody was up at arms 651 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,360 Speaker 1: over you know, civil liberties happening in different cities of 652 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,800 Speaker 1: around America. You know, there was a lot of actors 653 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,359 Speaker 1: that were getting involved that all of a sudden, you know, 654 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,600 Speaker 1: it's kind of what you just described a little bit. 655 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 3: I almost well, yeah, you know, the the Greu troll 656 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,680 Speaker 3: farms one of the I mean, it's there's degrees of 657 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 3: hybrid warfare, right, so, I mean, you know they're you know, 658 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 3: they're not interested in any sort of a kintetic of 659 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,799 Speaker 3: a kinetic engagement with the United States. But you know, 660 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,640 Speaker 3: with Western countries, the strategy that's worked so well for 661 00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,960 Speaker 3: the Kremlin for most of its existence has been to 662 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 3: find creases and cracks in the you know, political fissures 663 00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,120 Speaker 3: between factions in the West, and then put a pride 664 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 3: bar in between those things. And that's how you make 665 00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 3: sure that you can break up coalitions that could ever 666 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:19,040 Speaker 3: have the capacity to unite and march eastward towards Moscow. 667 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:21,480 Speaker 3: You know that they're they're thinking about the Grand Armain 668 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:25,520 Speaker 3: under Napoleon or the Vermacht under under the Nazis, and 669 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,719 Speaker 3: that's you know that what they want to do is 670 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 3: make sure, there's never another coalition like that that can 671 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 3: ever entertain going east. 672 00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,279 Speaker 4: And so you know, when when there is. 673 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:41,960 Speaker 3: A Black Lives Mitter protest, but then there's also you know, 674 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 3: some sort of a maker Make America Great Again rally, 675 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,239 Speaker 3: You know that what the trolls will do is, you know, 676 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 3: see if we can get both of those accidentally scheduled 677 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,319 Speaker 3: on the same day in the same town center, and 678 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,239 Speaker 3: it would be very unfortunate if those two groups of 679 00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,600 Speaker 3: people came in contact with one another, right and you 680 00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,480 Speaker 3: know those through the kind of those are the kind 681 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:02,640 Speaker 3: of tactics that they employ. 682 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,239 Speaker 1: Would that be like chasing your political rival town to 683 00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:11,120 Speaker 1: town and setting up your political campaigns on their political 684 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:15,200 Speaker 1: campaigns to try to bring your crew to their crew. 685 00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,920 Speaker 1: Is that same type of where they might just cross 686 00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: paths like that, you know, whether it's in the grocery 687 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,720 Speaker 1: stores and you have, you know, say like I'm holding 688 00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,040 Speaker 1: a rally over here for Side A, and all of 689 00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,480 Speaker 1: my friends people are coming over to see that rally, 690 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 1: and then Side B has a rally the same day, 691 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:34,359 Speaker 1: like you said, in the same area, and someone's got 692 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 1: to go get gas at the store, and the two 693 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,120 Speaker 1: people that are going to be crossing paths are just 694 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 1: kind of pawns in the game. 695 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 3: Huh, yeah, it can be. That can be the case. 696 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 3: They do this a lot more in Europe than they 697 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:49,400 Speaker 3: do in the United States. I think it shocks us 698 00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:52,840 Speaker 3: when it happens a little bit, because truth be told, 699 00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 3: that it hasn't really been proven that social media, that 700 00:37:57,239 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 3: Russian troll farms and social media can really move the 701 00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:04,000 Speaker 3: needle in campaigns, let's say. But they can turn the 702 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:08,080 Speaker 3: temperature up for sure, and they're much they're quite more 703 00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 3: active in Europe, where there's uh, you know, in some 704 00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,279 Speaker 3: of those countries, there's less social stability. They've got a 705 00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:18,359 Speaker 3: much more inverted demography which sets the you know, let's say, 706 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,319 Speaker 3: the young tax base that feels quite outnumbered, and they're 707 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:25,400 Speaker 3: supporting all these massive pension systems through very limited means 708 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 3: that falls on some sympathetic ears in Europe in certain cases, 709 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:33,920 Speaker 3: and especially in you know, the Eastern European countries, so 710 00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:38,320 Speaker 3: you know, those that have been under the Russian yoke before, 711 00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:44,040 Speaker 3: Let's say, you know, principally you know, Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia. 712 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,439 Speaker 3: You know, they're they're watching very closely and they're they're 713 00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 3: trying to police these kinds of things. 714 00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:54,479 Speaker 1: But Adovi, right, Weldova is watching, right, is that right? Yeah? 715 00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,960 Speaker 1: Big time? Right, Like that's a that's almost like probably 716 00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:58,720 Speaker 1: what he wants to like suck up next. 717 00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:04,160 Speaker 3: But you know, like the Catolonia independence movement in Spain, 718 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,880 Speaker 3: you know, is getting lots of Russian backing because like 719 00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:09,320 Speaker 3: why not interfere in Spain? 720 00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 4: Like why not? Like what does that cost us? It's nothing? 721 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,560 Speaker 1: Why not? You know, why not? You know, just know 722 00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: they want some grain, you know, here you go and 723 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 1: now they like us and trying to get that you know, charisma. 724 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:27,560 Speaker 1: Even same with you know, the guy he's meeting all 725 00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,280 Speaker 1: the time from China, you know, the president over there. 726 00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,919 Speaker 3: The Russian strategy in the Sahel is fascinating and they're 727 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,480 Speaker 3: you know, Wagner is very active down there. They're you know, 728 00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:42,200 Speaker 3: they're transforming into the Africa cores, right, But they're backing 729 00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:46,360 Speaker 3: a number of military jentas and dictatorships that have overthrown 730 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 3: elected governments and all of those countries. The argument for 731 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:54,560 Speaker 3: their rule is essentially that look, you know, the the 732 00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:58,719 Speaker 3: the elected and Western backed governments have done a very 733 00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:02,439 Speaker 3: poor job of protecting the public from international terrorism one 734 00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,560 Speaker 3: and two. There you know, no one is seeing any 735 00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 3: real you know, economic benefits. 736 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:09,160 Speaker 4: Let's say number two. 737 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,359 Speaker 3: And so the Russians come in and they say, look, 738 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,360 Speaker 3: well will guard your you know, your middle resources in 739 00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,560 Speaker 3: your minds. We just want a dividend and we'll you know, 740 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,719 Speaker 3: we'll train your security forces, and we're not afraid to 741 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 3: go out and fight with you, and we'll go fight. 742 00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:24,600 Speaker 1: J N. 743 00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,520 Speaker 3: I am with you directly, and we have no problem 744 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 3: lay in some bodies out and we're not going to 745 00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,279 Speaker 3: say anything about human rights abuses or anything. The one 746 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,480 Speaker 3: thing that we ask is that you throttle natural gas 747 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:42,160 Speaker 3: exports to Europe. And the idea of you know, behind that, 748 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,480 Speaker 3: you know what, whatever you know with whatever countries they're 749 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,439 Speaker 3: working with in Africa, is to throttle those resources, whether 750 00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:54,240 Speaker 3: it's gas oil, uh you know, or you know, other commodities. 751 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: Let whatever it is. Yeah, yeah, you. 752 00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,239 Speaker 3: Know, send those things to to Russia. We'll pay you 753 00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,560 Speaker 3: for them and then we'll figure out how to export 754 00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 3: them to other countries. And you know they're creating leverage. 755 00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,560 Speaker 1: Yeah they are, and that's something to be thought about, right, 756 00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:12,960 Speaker 1: And I don't know, I just wore I grew up 757 00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:16,160 Speaker 1: in a very different time. You know. Nineteen eighty three 758 00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:21,239 Speaker 1: was the little Red Beta video that we watched Red 759 00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:25,400 Speaker 1: Dawn on at my dad's Green Berets Buddy's house, Jerry 760 00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,799 Speaker 1: and we were hanging out there, Bro. And it's the 761 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,959 Speaker 1: thirty fifth anniversary right now as we're talking, this year 762 00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,000 Speaker 1: of Red Dawn. And I know there was a part 763 00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,000 Speaker 1: two out there, but if you go see the first one, 764 00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:42,239 Speaker 1: please go see the first Red Dawn nineteen eighty three 765 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:46,200 Speaker 1: movie eighty four and just check it out. You know, 766 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:47,759 Speaker 1: the new one has Chris comes Worth it and I 767 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,680 Speaker 1: think four right, he's in that, but the old one 768 00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 1: has Patrick Swayze and the Radiator and it just kind 769 00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,000 Speaker 1: of gives you a sense of wolverines and what wolverines 770 00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:00,080 Speaker 1: are and what we should all be wolverines about. Okay, 771 00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:04,920 Speaker 1: say wolverines, bro Okay. Because I sat in my dad's office, 772 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,520 Speaker 1: I would not go to seventh grade. I just didn't 773 00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:09,160 Speaker 1: have a good time at school. And it was at 774 00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,120 Speaker 1: this His armory was at the same junior high that 775 00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,320 Speaker 1: I went to. Funny enough, so the wrestlers use the gym, 776 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,839 Speaker 1: the pe teachers used the gym, the teachers upstairs use 777 00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,000 Speaker 1: it for math, and then during the rest of the 778 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 1: day it was all guard, it was all nineteenth Group, 779 00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,400 Speaker 1: it was all theirs. They would take their rucks off. 780 00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,120 Speaker 1: I'd see the gym in a different light. I would 781 00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:28,360 Speaker 1: see all the guys standing getting off of like some 782 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,120 Speaker 1: deployment and taking all their gear off, and then going 783 00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:32,440 Speaker 1: to see the families while everybody else is watching a 784 00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:37,120 Speaker 1: basketball game. So I'm growing up in a little office 785 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,360 Speaker 1: janitor's closet, and it's got this film in there that 786 00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,320 Speaker 1: I could just pull any film off of the wall 787 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,080 Speaker 1: and put it in and a slide it over, and 788 00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,759 Speaker 1: it's like ten ninety tank. It's like, and I can 789 00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:48,919 Speaker 1: just go slow with the film and see like all 790 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,400 Speaker 1: about the ten ninety tank and all of its armament, 791 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:53,440 Speaker 1: and then it goes like I could pick out the RPG, 792 00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,400 Speaker 1: and I loved watching and sitting there scrolling the RPG 793 00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,799 Speaker 1: and watching all the different flared out versions of its 794 00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:03,120 Speaker 1: rockets that they had. So I've grown up very warsaw 795 00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,960 Speaker 1: understanding right of all that kind of like stuff from 796 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:11,080 Speaker 1: ten eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen years old, I still feel 797 00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:17,200 Speaker 1: that way. I'm just saying, you know, Curtis, there's just 798 00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:18,920 Speaker 1: something in the back of my mind. That just says 799 00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:22,239 Speaker 1: the empire wants to resurrect itself, you know. You know 800 00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:27,200 Speaker 1: when David Hasselhoff danced on the Berlin Wall singing to 801 00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:30,200 Speaker 1: the Germans that it was down, you know, and Reagan's like, 802 00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:34,560 Speaker 1: mister Gorbachev, tear down that wall, you know, and everybody 803 00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,400 Speaker 1: was like, oh my god, East can meet West, Families 804 00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 1: can be reunited. People weren't just shot trying to cross 805 00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,960 Speaker 1: the border, which was what's happening in East Germany, you know, 806 00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:48,279 Speaker 1: all underneath that kind of horrible situation, and Gorbachef and 807 00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:55,680 Speaker 1: everybody like what happened when Medvedev made Putin prime minister, right, 808 00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,520 Speaker 1: that's kind of when it all went south, isn't it 809 00:43:58,560 --> 00:43:59,680 Speaker 1: is that right to I have that right? 810 00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:07,240 Speaker 3: Well, so it was Borsh. Yeltsen ordered him prime minister 811 00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:11,160 Speaker 3: in nineteen ninety nine, and then Yeltsin's health started failing 812 00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 3: and he was grooming Putin for the presidency, and when 813 00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:19,200 Speaker 3: he resigned as prime minister, Putin became acting president until 814 00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:22,560 Speaker 3: he was officially elected in two thousand. In the spring 815 00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:27,239 Speaker 3: of two thousand and yeah, he he by the Russian constitution, 816 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,279 Speaker 3: he could only do two terms as president directly, but 817 00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:34,600 Speaker 3: it doesn't say consecutively, excuse me. So he stepped down 818 00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,680 Speaker 3: and became prime minister while Dmitri Medvedev was president for 819 00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,040 Speaker 3: four years, and then he ran for president again. 820 00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,719 Speaker 5: And he got it, surprise, surprise, yes, and then after 821 00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:52,799 Speaker 5: another two terms, they decided to amend the constitution so 822 00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:54,239 Speaker 5: that he could do a third term. 823 00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:56,600 Speaker 1: That's what he's in right now, right. 824 00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,239 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and that's what's going on now. 825 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,440 Speaker 1: This is his total of like fourth term though. 826 00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,360 Speaker 3: Yes, I'd have to do the math on that, but 827 00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:11,080 Speaker 3: I want to say, oh, wait to twelve was Medvedev, 828 00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,640 Speaker 3: and then another eight years of twenty twenty, and he 829 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:19,200 Speaker 3: had to amend the constitution before twenty twenty. Yeah, to 830 00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:22,200 Speaker 3: get a third term in a row. I think that's correct. 831 00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:23,759 Speaker 3: I'd have to go back and double check. 832 00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:28,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean really, he's just wanted to be you know, Vlad. 833 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:35,560 Speaker 3: But you know, getting back to our original topic, you know, 834 00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:40,640 Speaker 3: it's fascinating the Russians have they've figured out how to 835 00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:44,040 Speaker 3: spool their war machine up. Now, it's taken them two 836 00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:48,120 Speaker 3: years and some change to finally spool up all of 837 00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,759 Speaker 3: their defense industries. They had to fire a lot of 838 00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:54,640 Speaker 3: corrupt people. They had to reinvent supply chains from scratch. 839 00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:59,200 Speaker 3: But they are finally manufacturing munitions and they are finally 840 00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,760 Speaker 3: It's not particularly good at building like let's say, smart bombs, 841 00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,440 Speaker 3: you know, especially not things that need like thermal optics 842 00:46:05,440 --> 00:46:09,080 Speaker 3: and electro optical but they can make dumb bombs and masks. 843 00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,719 Speaker 3: They can make artillery shells and masks now and they're 844 00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,560 Speaker 3: producing that and so they are for the first time, 845 00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:19,279 Speaker 3: you know, they can engage in these artillery exchanges, you know, 846 00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:22,120 Speaker 3: around the Ukrainians, and they can kind of pressure the 847 00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:26,160 Speaker 3: Ukrainian line on all fronts. And for the more sophisticated stuff, 848 00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,040 Speaker 3: they're working with China, and this is part of how 849 00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,040 Speaker 3: do they evade sanctions. Well, they trade enormously with the 850 00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:35,920 Speaker 3: Chinese and the other bricks. So you know the bricks 851 00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:40,000 Speaker 3: are it's Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. But 852 00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:44,000 Speaker 3: they've had some new members now, including Egypt, the United 853 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,799 Speaker 3: Arab Emirates. I can't remember if Belarus is or not. 854 00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:48,400 Speaker 1: It might be. 855 00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:53,840 Speaker 3: I know Iran is, and I think Argentina was invited 856 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:59,399 Speaker 3: but their new president elected against it. But essentially they're 857 00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:04,200 Speaker 3: all trading with each other and Russian. So Russia is 858 00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:08,160 Speaker 3: exporting in volume and importing in volume mostly through the 859 00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,640 Speaker 3: other Bricks countries and using them as third parties to 860 00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:15,759 Speaker 3: get access to Western technology. The Chinese are a particularly 861 00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:19,200 Speaker 3: interesting case in this because of the Chinese are a 862 00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:24,600 Speaker 3: massive manufacturer of silicon and microchips. They're not particularly good 863 00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:26,759 Speaker 3: at the intellectual property piece. They're not very good at 864 00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:33,239 Speaker 3: designing new stuff, but they're you know, the the relatively unsophisticated, 865 00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:37,839 Speaker 3: you know, sixty nanometer chips, twenty five nanometer chips like that. 866 00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:41,160 Speaker 3: Your twenty five nanometer chip is probably what's in your car, right, 867 00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:45,080 Speaker 3: the sixty nanometer chips, that's like what's in your kid's 868 00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,400 Speaker 3: little gigapet or you know whatever, or maybe they you know, 869 00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,920 Speaker 3: that's that's the kind of thing that's in like your microwave. 870 00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:58,120 Speaker 1: Your gay boy old school hasn't say tecmobile, But there 871 00:47:58,120 --> 00:47:58,360 Speaker 1: you go. 872 00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:02,160 Speaker 4: Back man, that was a great game. 873 00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, really right, I love it? 874 00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:06,879 Speaker 3: Due yeah, Technic Bowl, check my Super Bowl. 875 00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,080 Speaker 1: Yeah. 876 00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:13,640 Speaker 3: But yeah, they're you know, the Russians have figured out 877 00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:17,600 Speaker 3: that you can take a relatively unsophisticated microchip, you can 878 00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,480 Speaker 3: put that on a glider and then you can attach that. 879 00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:23,320 Speaker 3: You can build a fab glider around a five hundred 880 00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:27,440 Speaker 3: pound bomb and you can glide that with relatively you know, 881 00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,640 Speaker 3: good accuracy and a very cheap investment. You can glide 882 00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:33,400 Speaker 3: that bomb down onto a target. I mean name that 883 00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,760 Speaker 3: a Ukrainian tank or a bridge or whatever. 884 00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:40,160 Speaker 1: Right, and that's whatever it's within range, Yeah, whatever it 885 00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:43,560 Speaker 1: can get to. So they just yeah, they can take 886 00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,719 Speaker 1: the old school stuff, the artillery. They can make shells, 887 00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:48,920 Speaker 1: they can make the stuff that they've were good at 888 00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:52,360 Speaker 1: World War two stuff. You know, probably a couple of 889 00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,920 Speaker 1: Car ninety eight a case. Those were reverse engineered from 890 00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:58,920 Speaker 1: the stream of cover, right, So I mean really that 891 00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:02,399 Speaker 1: wasn't even there a regional creation. They had to take 892 00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:07,680 Speaker 1: it from you know, the German lines. And so you know, well, 893 00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,960 Speaker 1: what would you like to give us as a positive 894 00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,120 Speaker 1: for us watching this and listening? You know, where should 895 00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:18,520 Speaker 1: we go if social media says, hey, this is what's happening. 896 00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,759 Speaker 1: Should we check ourselves? Should we just be nice to 897 00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:21,240 Speaker 1: one another? 898 00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:24,200 Speaker 3: Well I would, of course, I would love us to 899 00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,200 Speaker 3: be nice to one another, but that's never going to 900 00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:30,600 Speaker 3: happen as long as countries have divergent interests. I mean, 901 00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,080 Speaker 3: it's not a It's not a facet of who is 902 00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,480 Speaker 3: elected nearly as much as it's a facet of of 903 00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,680 Speaker 3: what those people you know, in those prospective countries see 904 00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:43,040 Speaker 3: as their their national interests, and those are always going 905 00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:46,920 Speaker 3: to conflict with one another. The good news, I can say, 906 00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,920 Speaker 3: you know, and I recently published a paper through Military 907 00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:53,640 Speaker 3: Review called who NATO is Ready for War? And it's 908 00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,279 Speaker 3: the polls have really stepped up to the plate in 909 00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:59,919 Speaker 3: a big way. The Polls are now running a six 910 00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:04,440 Speaker 3: division army. For comparison, the Germans, the French, and the 911 00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:08,280 Speaker 3: British are all running about three divisions with some change, 912 00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,319 Speaker 3: but the Poles have arguably the most powerful land army 913 00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,920 Speaker 3: in Europe right now. The Turks are also not to 914 00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,600 Speaker 3: be fooled around with. The Turks have a four hundred 915 00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:21,960 Speaker 3: thousand person army that is the second largest in NATO 916 00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,879 Speaker 3: after the United States. They have a very sophisticated air 917 00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:28,480 Speaker 3: force and they've shown that they can project power in 918 00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,920 Speaker 3: there near abroad in a very real way. And they 919 00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,480 Speaker 3: have a young, bristling, healthy demographic, which means there's lots 920 00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:37,520 Speaker 3: of young men that they can draft into the force. 921 00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:37,920 Speaker 4: If they want to. 922 00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:41,919 Speaker 3: And those are both going to be very very real 923 00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:48,120 Speaker 3: checks against Russian aggression in eastern Europe and the Caucasus 924 00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:51,800 Speaker 3: and around the Black Sea. The Germans are now taking 925 00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,080 Speaker 3: their defense a little bit more seriously. They're very acutely 926 00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,960 Speaker 3: aware of their history and so they never want to 927 00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:01,160 Speaker 3: be in a situation where national word, let's say that 928 00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:06,000 Speaker 3: the defense apparatus is setting national policy in Germany. But 929 00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:10,480 Speaker 3: they Boris Pistorius is doing a good job as Defense 930 00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:16,440 Speaker 3: Minister in terms of let's say, retraining their standing forces, somewhat, 931 00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:21,680 Speaker 3: updating their strategic planning and doctrine, and trying to iron 932 00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:26,120 Speaker 3: out kind of the fraud defense industrial relationships that the 933 00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:29,160 Speaker 3: Germans have so that they can update their equipment hardware 934 00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:32,000 Speaker 3: and make sure that they have sufficient munition stockpile. And 935 00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,240 Speaker 3: that's about the best we can expect from Germany. 936 00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:36,879 Speaker 1: Right. Germany even said, like, you know, they're trying to 937 00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:40,759 Speaker 1: have their own supply of everything. They don't want to 938 00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,319 Speaker 1: have to be so reliant on the gases and all 939 00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:47,040 Speaker 1: the natural gas and everything coming in from the pipeline. 940 00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:49,919 Speaker 1: I do recall something an article somewhere that I read 941 00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:53,600 Speaker 1: where it was Germany has a like, hey, how do 942 00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,080 Speaker 1: we become self sufficient? Ourselves. It's going to have to 943 00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,920 Speaker 1: depend on that pipeline if we got cut off or 944 00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,600 Speaker 1: Europe gets cut off any of those supplies. 945 00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:04,920 Speaker 3: They do deserve some credit too. I mean, they've basically 946 00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:08,440 Speaker 3: elected to go into a depression. They're they're officially in 947 00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:10,880 Speaker 3: a recession right now, but I think there's a depression 948 00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,680 Speaker 3: ahead in their future, you know, on the moral grounds 949 00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:17,000 Speaker 3: that they can't do business with Russia anymore. And so 950 00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:20,239 Speaker 3: they you know, the Germans, even though we have to 951 00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,240 Speaker 3: heap some scorn on them because the Russian ground forces 952 00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,719 Speaker 3: were rebuilt with euro like they were, they were rebuilt 953 00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:28,880 Speaker 3: off the funds that the Russians got from oil and 954 00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:30,360 Speaker 3: gas exports to Europe. 955 00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,080 Speaker 4: But the Germans deserve some. 956 00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:34,480 Speaker 3: Credit because now that we're you know, now that the 957 00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:37,400 Speaker 3: Russians are at war of Ukraine, they've said, look, we 958 00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:38,960 Speaker 3: will take the economic hit. 959 00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:40,360 Speaker 4: We're not trading with them anymore. 960 00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,400 Speaker 1: So they're trying to become their self sufficient. And you know, 961 00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,279 Speaker 1: to the Germans out there that are doing that, you know, 962 00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,920 Speaker 1: at it, keep at it right, yep, that's it, straight 963 00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:52,080 Speaker 1: up straight, and. 964 00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,480 Speaker 3: We will figure out what is going to happen with 965 00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:58,160 Speaker 3: France in the near future. Here they've gone through a 966 00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:04,680 Speaker 3: very tumultuous election cycle. I don't think I don't think McCrone. 967 00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:08,920 Speaker 3: I think he was very unwise on how he orchestrated this. 968 00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,480 Speaker 3: But the far far left French has taken over, you know, 969 00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,640 Speaker 3: and in France. 970 00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:19,000 Speaker 1: Yeah that stop stop election or the yeah did a 971 00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:20,720 Speaker 1: quick stop gap election or whatnot. 972 00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:25,400 Speaker 3: And we don't really know exactly what that's going to 973 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,879 Speaker 3: mean for French public policy, but I guarantee you that 974 00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:33,239 Speaker 3: the French armed forces and the Army Diteire is not 975 00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:37,120 Speaker 3: going to It's going to be a low funding priority. 976 00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:39,680 Speaker 3: So we will have to see what form that takes. 977 00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:42,359 Speaker 3: And then the labor Labor has come to power in 978 00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,680 Speaker 3: Britain right and the Tories have been wiped out in 979 00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:52,720 Speaker 3: an an unprecedented way. But that's a weirder circumstance as well, 980 00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:57,560 Speaker 3: because maybe it's the smallest voter turnout for that election 981 00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:00,880 Speaker 3: in history, and it's like they no one wanted to 982 00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,560 Speaker 3: vote for labor, but they needed to punish the Tories. 983 00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:06,880 Speaker 3: And so you know, the new Prime minister is coming 984 00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:10,200 Speaker 3: in and we could say a lot about him, but 985 00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:14,759 Speaker 3: for a defense let's say, for a defense analysis, I'm 986 00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:18,040 Speaker 3: very very skeptical that he's going to prioritize in their 987 00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:21,640 Speaker 3: very fraught budget, you know, funding land forces in any 988 00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:25,880 Speaker 3: real sense, I would, given how fraught their budget is 989 00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:31,040 Speaker 3: right now, and given how overtaxed the the British public is, 990 00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:35,200 Speaker 3: I would not be surprised if Britain downgraded their their 991 00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:37,440 Speaker 3: ground forces to a two division structure. 992 00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:41,240 Speaker 1: Interesting, and they're also dealing with kind of a civil 993 00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,719 Speaker 1: you know, unrest over there right now, with a lot 994 00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,600 Speaker 1: of I guess riding in the streets, and you know, 995 00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:51,200 Speaker 1: and they are having a shift in their government as well. 996 00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:53,560 Speaker 1: At the same time. Again, this is kind of like 997 00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:57,399 Speaker 1: a perfect you know, plot for bad actors to get 998 00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:00,839 Speaker 1: involved and cause just so confusion a course over there, 999 00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:02,360 Speaker 1: you know, like we were talking about. 1000 00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:09,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And you know, to be I am, I 1001 00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:13,319 Speaker 3: am an institutionalist, not a populist in any sense. But 1002 00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:17,600 Speaker 3: one has to appreciate that that populism only rears its 1003 00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:22,400 Speaker 3: head when policymakers are not taking care of the items 1004 00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:27,000 Speaker 3: that are important to the public. And if you populism 1005 00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:31,560 Speaker 3: goes away the moment you take seriously the legitimate concerns 1006 00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:35,080 Speaker 3: of the voters. And in the United Kingdom, they have 1007 00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:39,880 Speaker 3: not taken seriously in any way, massive legal immigration and 1008 00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:43,920 Speaker 3: for them that looks like forty five fifty five thousand 1009 00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:48,480 Speaker 3: people coming across the English Channel and boats and skiffs 1010 00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:52,839 Speaker 3: every year. And people are livid about it because they one, 1011 00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:54,839 Speaker 3: they don't feel that they can make ends meet as 1012 00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:58,160 Speaker 3: it is, and these low skilled nounskilled laborers compete in 1013 00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:01,200 Speaker 3: the workforce with the working class, especially in northern England, 1014 00:56:01,920 --> 00:56:04,480 Speaker 3: and when they complain about it or they protest about it, 1015 00:56:04,520 --> 00:56:07,000 Speaker 3: they get called all the nasty things that you can imagine. 1016 00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:10,759 Speaker 3: It doesn't mean they're all right on the whole. Immigration 1017 00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:14,359 Speaker 3: is a healthy thing provided it's it, provided it does 1018 00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:18,360 Speaker 3: not it is has the appropriate it controls in place 1019 00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:21,759 Speaker 3: so that it doesn't undermine the culture, sure, and so 1020 00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:26,080 Speaker 3: that it's positive to the workforce and not a it 1021 00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:30,200 Speaker 3: does not create a deleterious effect in terms of wages. 1022 00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,319 Speaker 1: Like there's accountant for it, it's like it's documented, it's 1023 00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,520 Speaker 1: it's like done appropriately. And we understand. I understand that 1024 00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:41,359 Speaker 1: people want to fleep, persecution and famine, and you know 1025 00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:44,920 Speaker 1: they hear about you know, the Golden brick roads in America, 1026 00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:49,040 Speaker 1: and you know that's probably something that I have always 1027 00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:52,279 Speaker 1: taken for granted that opportunity to that I'm here, you know, 1028 00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,879 Speaker 1: and all that, and I can only imagine someone trying 1029 00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:57,520 Speaker 1: to get over into England. I've been over there several times, 1030 00:56:57,520 --> 00:56:59,879 Speaker 1: and you know, I've been told that I have more 1031 00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:04,000 Speaker 1: of a real British accent than people in England because 1032 00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,879 Speaker 1: so many people have just gone into the UK over 1033 00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:12,239 Speaker 1: time from all over the place, with that access to 1034 00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:15,279 Speaker 1: their shores, that they've changed the language to what we 1035 00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,000 Speaker 1: hear with the accent. 1036 00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:24,880 Speaker 3: Whereas yeah, you know, it's it's astonishing, and that's that's 1037 00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:26,120 Speaker 3: a real volume of people. 1038 00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:29,560 Speaker 1: It is. It is to change kind of the way 1039 00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:29,959 Speaker 1: you talk. 1040 00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:35,200 Speaker 3: They've delegated so much public policy making power out of 1041 00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:39,280 Speaker 3: Parliament now too. They've they're creating all of these artificial 1042 00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:44,080 Speaker 3: institutions that decide public policy by means of their own 1043 00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:48,080 Speaker 3: wisdom and education, and they're delegating these authorities out of 1044 00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:52,560 Speaker 3: Parliament as a you know, the central argument is that, well, 1045 00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:55,840 Speaker 3: no one in Parliament has the expertise, which would beg 1046 00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:58,280 Speaker 3: the question why don't you elect people with expertise? 1047 00:57:58,360 --> 00:57:58,480 Speaker 4: Then? 1048 00:57:58,640 --> 00:58:02,280 Speaker 3: Right, But you know, when you delegate authorities to a 1049 00:58:02,280 --> 00:58:06,600 Speaker 3: single issue committee on climate change, let's say, and I 1050 00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,960 Speaker 3: happen to be in favor of reasonable carbon emissions, but 1051 00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:13,760 Speaker 3: one has to appreciate that that's a balancing process in 1052 00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:17,440 Speaker 3: public policy. We have to reduce carbon emissions at a 1053 00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:20,040 Speaker 3: certain acceptable level, but we also have to make sure 1054 00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,160 Speaker 3: that we don't drive up energy costs so that the 1055 00:58:22,200 --> 00:58:26,120 Speaker 3: average family doesn't suffer from you know, horrible living conditions 1056 00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,160 Speaker 3: and inflation, and you know, people have to be able 1057 00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:31,560 Speaker 3: to drive their kids to school. Parliament is elected to 1058 00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:35,320 Speaker 3: debate those issues in England and come up with some 1059 00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:37,680 Speaker 3: sort of a middle ground and a pathway forward. But 1060 00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,320 Speaker 3: when you create a climate change committee or a climate 1061 00:58:40,400 --> 00:58:43,880 Speaker 3: change panel that decides for the country what public policy 1062 00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:46,440 Speaker 3: is in that domain, there's no debate, there's a single 1063 00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:49,920 Speaker 3: issue committee. And they don't appreciate that politics is the 1064 00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:53,760 Speaker 3: art of trade offs. And so this is driving populism 1065 00:58:54,160 --> 00:58:56,040 Speaker 3: and it's going to get worse and worse until they 1066 00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:56,920 Speaker 3: take it seriously. 1067 00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:02,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it seriously, take it seriously or else just 1068 00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,760 Speaker 1: I don't know, man, that's crazy. You're cool. No, it's 1069 00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:08,480 Speaker 1: a cool conversation. I'd be like, well, we got into it, okay, 1070 00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,439 Speaker 1: I mean it's been an hour and five minutes all right, 1071 00:59:11,520 --> 00:59:13,280 Speaker 1: I don't even know. It's usually it's like, hey, we're 1072 00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:15,800 Speaker 1: it's at an hour, but it's just going back and forth. 1073 00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:17,160 Speaker 1: And I just want to say, you know, I have 1074 00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:19,320 Speaker 1: had you for an hour and so much time that 1075 00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:21,240 Speaker 1: I really appreciate you taking time out of your busy 1076 00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:23,800 Speaker 1: day to be here with us and share your insights 1077 00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,880 Speaker 1: and and just knowledge, and just your demeanor and just 1078 00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:31,200 Speaker 1: your positive kind of persona. I really appreciate that. You know, 1079 00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:34,720 Speaker 1: you say both sides, You give it how it is, 1080 00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:38,560 Speaker 1: and I like to try to be that way as well, 1081 00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:40,680 Speaker 1: you know. And I'm also a big believer in freedom 1082 00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:44,320 Speaker 1: of choice for each individual, and I think you kind 1083 00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,800 Speaker 1: of have that same vibe. So you know, go get 1084 00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,240 Speaker 1: that tattoo if you want it, but you don't have 1085 00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:51,000 Speaker 1: to make me get the same tattoo. That's freendom of choice. Okay, 1086 00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,040 Speaker 1: that's a good way to say it. It is. It 1087 00:59:54,120 --> 00:59:55,560 Speaker 1: is if you want to get it, but hey, I 1088 00:59:55,640 --> 01:00:00,000 Speaker 1: might not. Okay, All right, now, your book, I'm gonna 1089 01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,840 Speaker 1: to read it. Hold on because it's a title and 1090 01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,280 Speaker 1: I want my listeners out there to go check that out. 1091 01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:09,240 Speaker 1: Let me go back here. Hybrid Warfare the Russian Approach 1092 01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:14,320 Speaker 1: to strategic competition and conventional military conflict. The Russian Way 1093 01:00:14,520 --> 01:00:18,280 Speaker 1: by Curtis Fox, a wonderful guest and someone who's always 1094 01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:20,760 Speaker 1: welcome back on the show with more insight about this 1095 01:00:20,920 --> 01:00:22,760 Speaker 1: exact stuff we're talking about. 1096 01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:25,960 Speaker 3: You're always welcome, hey, Red, It's been a great conversation. 1097 01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:28,280 Speaker 3: I'm sorry we had to wait six months to do it, man, 1098 01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:30,440 Speaker 3: but thanks for making it fun. 1099 01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:32,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, you're you're awesome, and we'll we'll do it again. 1100 01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:35,439 Speaker 1: There's it'll, it'll come and go. Don't you worry. Don't 1101 01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:38,200 Speaker 1: you worry. I got you. I got you all right now. Now, 1102 01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:40,760 Speaker 1: with that said, and on behalf of my guest Curtis 1103 01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:45,360 Speaker 1: Fox and Brandon Webb, my chief managing editor of software 1104 01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:49,480 Speaker 1: dot com, and Guy and Chris and everybody else, I 1105 01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,680 Speaker 1: want to mention that the load out Room dot com 1106 01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,280 Speaker 1: is something that you should go check out. I'm gonna 1107 01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:55,880 Speaker 1: be putting up articles there. We've got new authors that 1108 01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:59,280 Speaker 1: are gonna be bringing new content like cave exploring. Man. 1109 01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:01,400 Speaker 1: You want to see some crazy pictures. We got a 1110 01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:03,680 Speaker 1: guy that puts everything in and all he has is 1111 01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:06,000 Speaker 1: a photo of his feet sticking out. I don't even know. 1112 01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:08,880 Speaker 1: So that's coming to the Loadoutroom dot com and again 1113 01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:11,240 Speaker 1: thanks to Curtis for being here and taking the time 1114 01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:12,840 Speaker 1: out of his busy day and we'll have him back 1115 01:01:12,880 --> 01:01:14,560 Speaker 1: on the show. And this is Rad saying 1116 01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:23,680 Speaker 2: You've been listening to your self wreck Radio