1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: read enough? There were running a game so smoothe so sweet. 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 2: Slipid sixteen, just glorious execution. 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: How shot with that? Shop with mind bog, buddy, And 7 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers. 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most. 9 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying. 11 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: The love. 12 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: It's left to the wide eyed drill pibws. How old 13 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: Earth pick that happens? 14 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: Welcome back to Wonder Goal soccer betting podcast from the 15 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 2: Action Network. VJ Cunningham is in morning. Michael Leaboff is 16 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: celebrating the Islanders returning to the playoffs, and I'm wondering 17 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: how I let myself get tricked into betting on Arsenal 18 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 2: in the Champions League. Welcome back. It's Anthony Bundo as always, 19 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 2: joined by BJ Cunningham. Leab Off is out tonight. Like 20 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: we said, he is swamped with NHL playoff stuff, so 21 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 2: we'll see him back maybe Sunday, if not next week. 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 2: But BJ and I are here, and BJ I thought 23 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 2: I would save it for the Arsenal conversation, but it's 24 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 2: on my mind right now. We all watch today, Byron 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 2: goes up one nil in the sixty third minute. Two 26 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: shots for Arsenal in the last thirty minutes of the match. Yeah, 27 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 2: they go out with a whimper. You and a former 28 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 2: soccer editor, Matt Trevy are already planning for the summer 29 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 2: transfer window. Yeah, it's kind of the thirty second spin 30 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: on Arsenal's I don't want to say collapse, but Arsenal's disappointment. 31 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: Lady, I think disappointment's the right word. You know, Arsenal 32 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: just has some of these performances from time to time, 33 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: and it was kind of shocking that it came team 34 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: against a team like Byron. You know, we kind of 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: talked about a team like Porto can do what they 36 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: did to a lot of teams, and obviously they exposed 37 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: some flaws with Arsenal and the reality was is, yeah, 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: like you said, once, once Byron went up one nothing 39 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: that felt, at least in my gut like it. You know, 40 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: I didn't. I wasn't optimistic that Arsenal was gonna go 41 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 1: get a second and you can kind of see that 42 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: from the jump. You know, Arsenal really only created one 43 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: really good chance the Martinette and across to Martinelli that 44 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: he put right on right at Noier. But outside of 45 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: that they didn't really do much. But in the other sense, 46 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: like outside of the Kimmis chance, you know, I know, 47 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: Caine hit the post a kind of a low quality effort, 48 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: but Byron didn't really do a whole lot in the 49 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: entire match. But that's kind of it doesn't matter. If 50 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 1: you can't really create chances, then you know, if one 51 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: goal really makes the difference, then that sucks. But yeah, 52 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 1: now we turn our attention to the title race. Hopefully 53 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: we can win out put some pressure on man City, 54 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: who also so went out today. So no England teams 55 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:07,839 Speaker 1: left unfortunately, looks like that fifth spot's going to Germany. Yeah, 56 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,880 Speaker 1: it means the race for top four is just heated 57 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 1: up quite a bit. 58 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it should be more fun now Villa Tott and 59 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: I'm fighting for fourth. 60 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:16,519 Speaker 1: Yeah. 61 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: I didn't expect Arsenal to ever score. In fact, I 62 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 2: thought about a live under one and a half, but 63 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: then I was actually more worried about Byron just getting 64 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 2: one on the break. When Arsenal got desperate, so I 65 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: didn't bet it, but I think you know, Arsenal were 66 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: the better team compared to Byron, but Byron have the 67 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 2: more individual moments, high end talent, I think, and you 68 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 2: know Sokker had a very quiet second leg and kind 69 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: of just not having a striker like I think you 70 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 2: kind of saw the limitations and it's something that we've 71 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 2: been concerned about. I've been concerned about over the course 72 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: of the league match and it was always a thing 73 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 2: that could have reared its ugly head in a tournament 74 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 2: setting where if you fall behind, do you have the 75 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: firepower to play back into this match? And I was 76 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: not the case was not to be so tough for Arsenal, 77 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 2: But like you said, there's a league title race to go. 78 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 2: Updated title odds in the League Man City minus two 79 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 2: twenty five Arsenal plus four to fifty Liverpool plus six 80 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 2: fifty from our sponsors at Bet three sixty five. Before 81 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: we get into the league though, we've got a really 82 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 2: fun FA Cup semi final this weekend and I'm not 83 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 2: talking about City and Chelsea, but we are going to 84 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: start with City and Chelsea. That is the headliner, the 85 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: de facto final. Some are calling it because of the 86 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 2: form that Man United's in. We have seen Chelsea and 87 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 2: City play twice this year to just incredible draws. A 88 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 2: four to four at Stanford Bridge back in November and 89 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 2: then a one to one at the Etty Head in February. 90 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 2: Both games had over four expected goals created, so it 91 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 2: kind of leads to this total only being three man 92 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 2: City minus one to eighty money line favorite. Playing about 93 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 2: a goal, Bjay, we've been kind of back out on Chelsea, 94 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: in on Chelsea, out on Chelsea. They put six pasted 95 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 2: Everton on Monday. Are we in? Are we? Where are 96 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 2: we on Chelsea this week as a dog where they've 97 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 2: tended to play much better against the big side. 98 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 1: I'm definitely in. Let's first talk about the spot before 99 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: we get into the actual Tacble matchup. We have Chelsea 100 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: obviously has all the confidence in the world putting six 101 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 1: pass Everton. We have City who is limping into this 102 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: because it came out at the end that Holland, de 103 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: Bruyna and Ekanji all asked to go off, So that's 104 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: a little concerning if they're maybe not fit enough for 105 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: this match. Full one hundred and twenty minutes for most 106 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 1: of me for all of Manchester City plus penalties against 107 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 1: Real Madrid. They were at home, but now you're coming 108 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: essentially two days rest because they're playing on Saturday after 109 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,239 Speaker 1: having to play on Wednesday. So not a great spot 110 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: for Manchester City first off. And it also boils down 111 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: to what I've been saying is that Manchester City still 112 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: hasn't beaten a Big six team outside of United. And 113 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: why is that. Well, you saw it on display with 114 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 1: Real Madrid today. I know they created three expectacles and 115 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: I know probably they should have gone through, but they 116 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 1: are so vulnerable in transition because of how many of 117 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: their ball stopping midfielders and defenders they have to push 118 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 1: up on the back line to actually create that type 119 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: of pressure on the opponents. It's what hurt them in 120 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: the second meeting against Chelsea. It's why Chelsea went ahead 121 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: is because they were pushing rodri and they were pushing 122 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 1: Stones way far up and they and Chelsea just kept 123 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:25,119 Speaker 1: isolating Nathan Aka on the left side. Obviously, Givordio always 124 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: hurt for that match. He's going to be probably back 125 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 1: for he will be back for this one. But if 126 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: you look at his positioning through a lot of these 127 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: big matches is he's getting the one that's getting pushed 128 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: up along the wing, you know, and they usually drop, 129 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: whether it be Diaz, a Kanji and what now would 130 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: be Kyle Walker into a back three. So exploiting that 131 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: left side of the pitch is something that Chelsea can 132 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 1: do once again. And obviously Cole Palmer is an incredible 133 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 1: form right now. Him being able to also drop deep 134 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: and build up in poll Rube and Diaz out of 135 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: position time and time again is another way that Chelsea 136 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: can really exploit them. And what we know about Chelsea 137 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 1: see obviously, like we say every single time, but they're 138 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 1: just a much better team at playing in transition without 139 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: the ball than playing as a team that needs the 140 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 1: ball and you know, it needs to break down a 141 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: low block. I know they put six pasts at a 142 00:07:13,400 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: mid block of Everton, but Everton also had a huge 143 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: chance to go up one. Nothing that that ball goes 144 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: in the back of the net, I think we're gonna 145 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: have a very different match. So I like Chelsea plus one. 146 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: I only projected City around minus one forty minus one 147 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: thirty five. I really don't think there's that big of 148 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: a gap that the market is telling us between these 149 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: two teams, and we saw, you know, with real Madrid men. 150 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: But the real Madrid line, I mean there was yes, 151 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: we hit it, but and it's great. But like, if 152 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: you're watching that match, do you really think City should 153 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,320 Speaker 1: have been minus three hundred to advance? I don't think 154 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: so so, and I think it's tame to be said 155 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: true for this one. So I think City's way too 156 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: vulnerable in transition to be laying this pig of a number. 157 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: So like Chelsea plus one, yeah. 158 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 2: I'm gonna play over three minus one ten just can't 159 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 2: get anywhere near this number. I'm closer to three to three. 160 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 2: These two teams played in February, like we said at 161 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: the Etsy had so you know, maybe you increase with 162 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 2: the scoring a little bit environment because of the fact 163 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 2: that this is a Cup semi final. But the line 164 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 2: closed three and a half under minus one fifteen. Now 165 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 2: I can get three. That's a huge difference. And I 166 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 2: you know, I thought three and a half was a 167 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 2: little high back then. But there's nothing in these teams 168 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 2: head to head that suggested that Chelsea can play any 169 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 2: defense whatsoever. On City. It was Holland missing a couple 170 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 2: of big chances it was Doku walking into the penaltyary 171 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 2: repeatedly in that first in that last match, and like 172 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 2: you said, Chelsea, they found a ton of success in 173 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 2: transition and City had to kind of change how they 174 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 2: were playing in the second half to try to strangle 175 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 2: the game more so I think there's more pass success. Again. 176 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 2: Of course, the longer this stays zero zero, the less 177 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 2: each team's gonna want to make errors. But even without Holland, 178 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 2: we've seen City be just fine in attack, even if 179 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 2: they rotate a little bit. I think Cities can be fine, 180 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 2: and I think they're going to score at least two here, 181 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 2: So give me the over three at minus one ten. 182 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: Just don't really agree with the market over deflating for 183 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 2: the Cup semifinal in that one, So yeah, over three. 184 00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 2: In the second game, I tried to find something interesting 185 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 2: to say about Coventry City, something interesting in their play style, 186 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 2: something interesting in the statistical profile. I'll be honest, I 187 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,319 Speaker 2: haven't watched a ton of Coventry City this year. I 188 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 2: watched one match. They beat Wolves three two in epic fashion. 189 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 2: They look pretty good in that match. How do you 190 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 2: wright the American World Cup hero for his consolation goal 191 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 2: against the Dutch fifteen goals this year. For them, there's 192 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 2: nothing like I said, they're not. They don't excel in any 193 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 2: particular area. They're pretty average across the board, slightly above 194 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 2: average in the Championship. But now you get to play 195 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 2: United and the bottom has fallen out. On the defense. 196 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 2: It's no longer. You know, the first half of the 197 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 2: season it was like a league average slightly worse defense 198 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 2: and we said, oh, you know, there are some injuries, 199 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 2: but it is actually bottomed out. And even with you know, 200 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 2: certain injuries being in and out, and you know, now 201 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 2: their back line is really fra with you know, we 202 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 2: saw some some mistakes in the Bournemouth match. They got 203 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 2: away with some stuff in that one as well. Coventry 204 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 2: team totals have to be the play for me here. 205 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 2: I don't really trust their defense to hold up. They 206 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 2: didn't look great against a Wolves team without any of 207 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 2: their good attackers. They still get up two x g 208 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 2: in that match. That FA Cup semi and some of 209 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 2: their other result. You know, they beat Maidstone in the 210 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 2: round before that, they went out to Wimbledon in the Cup. 211 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 2: Earlier this year. They pretty consistently giving up chances in 212 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 2: the championships. So I think United, you know, can can 213 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 2: have success. This is United season, really, but Coventry is 214 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 2: going to be live at the other end and playing 215 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 2: on the break against this United team. So I think 216 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 2: Coventry team totals are the way to go BJ. I mean, 217 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: you know, this is like a weekly tradition at this point, 218 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 2: outside of the outside of the one time I bet 219 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 2: on them with the team totals in the money line, 220 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 2: I don't think we've bet United for a while now. 221 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:54,239 Speaker 1: So this is the bed of a luxury anthony for Coventry. 222 00:10:54,320 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: Every possible way spread money line, team total shots. I 223 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 1: want to tell the story of Coventries because, like you said, 224 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: yes they're pretty, they're above average championship side, and their 225 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 1: underlying metrics are okay, they're not great. But I want 226 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 1: to tell the story of their season of you know 227 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: how they've essentially gotten better. So they got off to 228 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: a really difficult start to begin the season. First fifteen matches, 229 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: they only won three times. They lost obviously to Lootontown 230 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: on penalties in the promotional playoff last year, and the 231 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 1: ripple effect that has, unfortunately for championship sides, is pretty drastic. 232 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: If you don't, you know, are not a bigger club 233 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 1: that can withstand that type of you know, financial windfall. 234 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: Yokorish leaves for Sporting Gustavo Hammer leaves for Sheffield United. 235 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: Two of their usual three center backs and their back 236 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 1: three were on loan. They had to go back to 237 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: their parent clubs. So that's a pretty catastrophic thing to 238 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: lose going into a season. And they struggled out of 239 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,839 Speaker 1: the gates, but they also underperformed for a large stretch 240 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: of that. I mean, if you look at hot you rights, 241 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 1: you know, you scored fifteen goals, that's off close to eight. 242 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: Can't expected him and Ellis Simms Everton Striker were just 243 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 1: in a poor finishing run for basically the whole first 244 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 1: half of the season. Then they switched to a back four. 245 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: The underline numbers didn't really improve. In fact, they were 246 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:14,959 Speaker 1: actually about the same. They're about you know, plus zero 247 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: point four actually differential per ninety. But they got some 248 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,079 Speaker 1: positive regression and they started winning and they've won eighteen 249 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:24,079 Speaker 1: of the last twenty seven matches in the championship. And 250 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 1: really what it boiled down to me is there obviously 251 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: a team that since they switched to a back four. 252 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: They've tried to be a little more possession based as 253 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: opposed to being a you know, three to five to 254 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: two direct counter attacking team. Their build up attacks compared 255 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 1: to their direct attacks are about even, but their direct 256 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: speed is the second highest in the Championship because Hajji, 257 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 1: Wright and Sims have a lot of pace to get 258 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: at you. Nothing's changed with United. I mean you can 259 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: just go back and just you know, essentially plug in 260 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: what we've been saying about United. You know, week after 261 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: week after week, they can't control matches, the press sucks. 262 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: They're gonna play this match in transition. So for a 263 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: Coventry team that is on a good finishing run, that 264 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: has they can play in transition with pace, they can 265 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: definitely exploit United many times. And I think you're right 266 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: if you want zero one, bet, I think the team 267 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: total is definitely the way to go for Coventry City 268 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 1: because again United definitely has enough attacking quality and you 269 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: saw that against Bournemouth, even though they weren't that great, 270 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 1: they have the attack and quality to put a couple 271 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: of goals passed. So if you want to get crazy 272 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 1: Coventry City to win in both teams of scores about 273 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 1: nine to one right now. I think that's another good 274 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 1: way to play this, but yeah, it really any playing 275 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: Coventry any possible way is definitely the way to go, 276 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: because I mean I went and projected at out Anthony 277 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 1: using you know what I usually use for transitioning teams 278 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: from the Championship the Premier League, and I have United 279 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: at like minus one to eighty, like, so they're closer 280 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,119 Speaker 1: to minus two thirty right now. They're just way overvalued 281 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: against a Coventry team that could be going to the 282 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 1: FA Cup final and finding themselves a spot in European football. 283 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 2: Well, it's gonna be a little tougher to tail tough, 284 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 2: but they have a chance. They got My City or 285 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 2: Chelsea in the final, so that's a bigger that's a 286 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 2: bigger hurdle. Although Chelsea love an upset loss, so you 287 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 2: never know. But when you look at this, so some 288 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 2: fun ideas both teams to score and double chance on 289 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 2: Coventry around three to one. That's intriguing. Both team to 290 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 2: score over two and a half. Everybody's favorite bet two 291 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 2: and a half minus won ten. So some interesting ways 292 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 2: to play that one. I don't really want to play 293 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 2: just like Coventry spread, that's kind of boring. I want 294 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 2: to chase. I tend to want to chase more fun 295 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 2: payouts and cups because they do tend to be higher 296 00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 2: variants even in a semi final. So Coventry over one 297 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 2: and a half, there's that coming in that these days. 298 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 2: Coventry over one and a half plus two twenty five, 299 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 2: that's wonderful. Over two and a half nine to one, 300 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I'm gonna have some others. So that's 301 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: where I'm at on this. You know, we're just going 302 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 2: to keep fading this United Defense into oblivion. It could 303 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 2: get worse. It's hard to say, it's crazy to say that, 304 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 2: but it could get worse because they are now kind 305 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 2: of running out of defenders and they're also so at 306 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 2: the same time running out of motivation if they you know, 307 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 2: whatever happened to this result, if they don't go through 308 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 2: even in the league once they do, like, it's all 309 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 2: coming down to the CPS really for them, and I guess, 310 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: you know, the Europa League. But I kind of think 311 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 2: ten Hog is nearing lame duck status here. 312 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: So yeah, he's he went and we've talked about this, 313 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: but obviously with new ownership. Coming in, he was essentially 314 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: managing for his job, and right now he has sacrificed 315 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: any type of tactical plan for results, and they've gotten 316 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: some and maybe if they get into the top five, 317 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: which is very unlikely at this point, holding on the 318 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: top six would honestly be a win for them. He's 319 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 1: he's probably gone, and they're probably gonna go in a 320 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: different direction. So yeah, he's I don't see a scenario 321 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: where he stays unless they pull off some type of 322 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: magical run, which is not going to happen. 323 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 2: The funniest result, and one that I now think is 324 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 2: like forty percent to happen based on remaining schedules, is 325 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: that Chelsea passes Men United in the table. 326 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: Oh, that's definitely live. 327 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 2: They're three points behind with a game in hand. Granted, 328 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 2: you know Chelsea's next handful of matches. They're gonna play 329 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 2: at Arsenal at Villa, they're gonna host Spurs, they still 330 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 2: go to Brighton, So not exactly the easiest running for 331 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 2: the Blues, but they're going to be live to do 332 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 2: that and catch United, which would be the funniest scenario 333 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 2: given how those two teams came into the season. Expectations wise. Okay, 334 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: let's go to the Premier League. Now, we talked about 335 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,880 Speaker 2: the title race. Arsenal lost to Villa two straight matches. 336 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 2: By the way Arsenal didn't score should. 337 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: Be noted that's true. 338 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 2: That's I think five now in all competitions where they 339 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 2: have not scored. That is a lot for a team 340 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 2: who is supposed to win this title. And now they 341 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 2: get a Wolves team who is in a bit of 342 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:58,479 Speaker 2: a rough patch. But now just in time, it's like clockwork, 343 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: Kunya and hwang Hen return and look who scored two 344 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 2: goals last week? Wolves. 345 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: Uh. 346 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 2: You know it's never that simple, but it feels like 347 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: with Palace and Wolves this year. Uh, they've been kind 348 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 2: of relatively easy handicaps where it's like, oh, like, what's 349 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 2: their attack look like today? None of the good players 350 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 2: are in, They're not going to score much. If Palace 351 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 2: doesn't have as a release ay, they probably will need 352 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 2: a miracle to score. And if they do have them. 353 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: I made a joke last week twenty eleven, Barcelona, Uh, 354 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 2: like they've you know, scored and beat Liverpool. So where 355 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 2: are we on Arsenal with the temperature check? Should they 356 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 2: roll here? I wanted one and a half minus one 357 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 2: ten to bet Wolves, it's minus one twenty five one thirty. 358 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 2: It's a little juicy for me on Wolves, but I 359 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 2: have this right around one point twenty five one point 360 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 2: two six goals, So I don't really have a play here, 361 00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 2: although I'm clearly leaning toward Wolves because I think as 362 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 2: these matches start to pile up, Arsenal fatigue with their 363 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 2: main attackers. You know, I find it convenient that Arsenal 364 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 2: doesn't score against City, then they have the mediocre showing 365 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 2: against Byron, they get blanked by Villa, then they get 366 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: blanked by Byron here today. All that came right after 367 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 2: Martinelli and Socca picked up little injuries, not operating at 368 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 2: one hundred percent. Like Martinelli missed some times, Soccer missed 369 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 2: a couple of games, the looting game, they weren't very good. 370 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 2: So Wolves are tempting to me with Now they're two 371 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 2: of their three best attackers back in the lineup. I 372 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 2: think they're worth maybe a money line shop, but from 373 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 2: a spread perspective, I think it's it's about right. 374 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I think that Arsenal is a tad 375 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:37,159 Speaker 1: overvalued comparatively to Wolves. Here. The one thing about Wolves 376 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 1: that is interesting to me is every time I watch them, 377 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,719 Speaker 1: and it was very true against Nottingham Forest, is because 378 00:18:43,760 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: of their out of possession structure, they often leave a 379 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: lot of space in the middle of the pitch. And 380 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 1: you saw that when Morgan gives White. Obviously, you know 381 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: Danilo end up scoring the goal, but Morgan gives White 382 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 1: created it through the middle of the pitch. Arsenal's obviously 383 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 1: not a team that plays the middle of the pitch. 384 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 1: That's a little concerning, and Wolves is very good at 385 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: defending in those wide areas, but they leave that space 386 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:10,360 Speaker 1: in the middle, and then they're just incredible at blocking 387 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: shots or blocking passes that actually come into the penalty. 388 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 1: Like we've said many times, their Gary O'Neill's team is 389 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 1: one of the best penalty penalty box defending teams honestly 390 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 1: in the world right now. Is that's why they've kind 391 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 1: of overperformed at this point. And after the showing today 392 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 1: against Byron, you know, it's it's really kind of hard 393 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: to see how Arsenal is able to create all of 394 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: these chances, and that kind of what leads me more 395 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: towards an under here, which I know Hwang and KNYA 396 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 1: are back. But even if you watch the Byron match day, 397 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 1: like Byron wasn't that threatening as they were in the 398 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,199 Speaker 1: first leg, especially in transition. And that's basically how Wolves 399 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 1: is going to have to get all their chances. And 400 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: then you also couple that with the fact that Arsenals 401 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,840 Speaker 1: kind of run a little bit cold on set pieces. 402 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 2: Oh really, no, no way. At one point in the 403 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 2: game today they had zero corners in like sixty fifth 404 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 2: minute and I was like, that's why Arsenal has done nothing. 405 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 2: And then on two separate occasions they didn't even get 406 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 2: the corner off because they shove the goalie and they 407 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 2: don't call it in the Premier League anymore, but they 408 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 2: call it in Europe and they got called and I 409 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 2: was like laughing, but also sad because I'm like, shit, 410 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 2: I have to root for Arsenal here, I have money 411 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 2: on them, But who could have who could have seen 412 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 2: that coming? Then Arsenal set piece luck would would would 413 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 2: regress a little bit, the dominance would regress, not luck necessarily, 414 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 2: but you. 415 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: Just didn't get as many chances that they needed to, 416 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 1: you know, create those chances. But what I will say 417 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: is Wolves is one of the best set piece defenses 418 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 1: in the Premier League, so that kind of leads me 419 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 1: to under three here. You know, I do project. You know, 420 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 1: I'm checking this match right about you know, two point nine, 421 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: so kind of right around three there. But given the 422 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: scenario that we're in, how Wolves is going to play, 423 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 1: I think this is generally a spot if you want 424 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: to back an under I mean I don't. It's again, 425 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing how this gets to four. 426 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: So if I had to do anything in this match, 427 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 1: it'll probably just be under three at minus one ten. 428 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know I feel about Arsenal unders. I bet 429 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 2: a lot of them this year. But yeah, I think 430 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 2: there's something to the attack being a little bit worse 431 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 2: right now, just given the minutes played, the injuries, and 432 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 2: then like tross Art is such a great super sub, 433 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 2: but every time Katya comes off the bench, I don't 434 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 2: ever think he actually does anything like you watch him 435 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 2: and he just kind of because he doesn't really. He's 436 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 2: always the extra attacker usually when they need a guy, 437 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 2: and it never really works right, and he's not as 438 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 2: good in transition as he is in like settled possession, 439 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,159 Speaker 2: and usually they're playing from the lead, so it's like 440 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 2: a weird thing within Katya where he is not as 441 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 2: valuable as a sub tross Art obviously scores a goal 442 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 2: every match whenever I bet against Arsenal, But yeah, I'm 443 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 2: leaning towards We'll see if the market moves a little bit. 444 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 2: Hop In don't disagree on the under. 445 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, well, here's what I will say. Encouragement 446 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,160 Speaker 1: of Arsenal is like wolves will give chances like they're 447 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: not like this impenetrable low block, and nobody can actually 448 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 1: defend like they have and consistently have gave up a 449 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:08,439 Speaker 1: lot of big chances this year. 450 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, the defense was never actually good. They ran good 451 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 2: for a lot while, but right they never actually looked real. 452 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: So Arsenal will have their chances in this match, just 453 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: can they actually put them away or create a big 454 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 1: one as kind of the question mark. 455 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 2: And now they're going to score twice on set pieces, 456 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 2: now that I slandered all right Fulham Liverpool Sunday eleven 457 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 2: thirty big one here of course Liverpool. You know as 458 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 2: much as Arsenal's only two points back Liverpool, they're in 459 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 2: Atalanta in Bergamot on Thursday, down three goals will be 460 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: fascinated to see what that match looks like, because you 461 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 2: know there's a world where Liverpool has to go all 462 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,879 Speaker 2: in on Thursday if they if they make this close 463 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: to try to turn this tie, and you know, maybe 464 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,399 Speaker 2: they have to play an extra thirty if they win. 465 00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 2: My three goals, I hope not, but then they have 466 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 2: the quick you know, turn around a Sunday another away match, 467 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,360 Speaker 2: and that's the thing, the second straight away match, traveling 468 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 2: to Italy, coming back then going to London. It's a 469 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 2: lot of travel and I think it's a good spot 470 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 2: to go against Liverpool. I like Fulham plus one. Fulham 471 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 2: in the first meeting lost for three, but I actually 472 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 2: thought they did a really nice job of keeping Liverpool 473 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 2: from dominating that match. There were so many possessions in 474 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 2: that and this was fully healthy Liverpool back in December. 475 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 2: There were so many possessions in that match where Liverpool 476 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: could not break through into the penalty area. And I 477 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 2: think it was the game when Anthony Robinson had seventeen 478 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 2: tackles plus interceptions. It was like a record for the 479 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,719 Speaker 2: Premier League. Like, yes, Fulham's defensive numbers are pretty flawed 480 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 2: and Liverpool can score for sure, it will here, but 481 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:40,359 Speaker 2: I think Liverpool's legs are a concern. Second straight away 482 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 2: match is a concern, and you know, I just don't 483 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 2: really trust their defense away from home, and that's been 484 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,879 Speaker 2: a common theme all year and I've said that I 485 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 2: thought their road form was going to cost them the 486 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 2: league title and ended up being the lost of Crystal Palace, 487 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 2: but at home. But they're now entering a stretch here 488 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 2: not just Liverpool has to go to Adelanta and Fulham, 489 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 2: but they're gonna go to Everton next weekend. Four straight 490 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 2: away matches in all competitions for Liverpool not good when 491 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 2: you consider they're giving up about one and a half 492 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 2: expected goals per match away from home. We even saw 493 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 2: them fumble against United. So this upcoming stretch here, you know, Everton, 494 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,440 Speaker 2: west Ham, Fulham and then they're gonna go to Villa. 495 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 2: Still like, it's a really difficult to waste schedule and 496 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 2: I think that's you know why I'm skeptical of Liverpool 497 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 2: and think there's going to be value going against them 498 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 2: in these away matches. 499 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: I totally agree. What else is different? You know, you 500 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: pointed out that three four match where Liverpool needed two 501 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: goals in the last five or six minutes to actually 502 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: win that match. Fulham is not only a team that 503 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: can play a low, good defensive block, but if they 504 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: need to, they can come out and they can press you. 505 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: That's what they've been doing to some of these teams lately, 506 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: and the offensive performances have really improved because they've gone 507 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 1: more towards the way of where the rest of the 508 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: Premier League is going, which is high intensity pressing, more 509 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: back and forth type matches. But they've been really good 510 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: in these type of back and forth matches. They have 511 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: a striker now who they didn't have, well they had 512 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,320 Speaker 1: they had him, but they didn't play him the last 513 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: time they faced Liverpool. Huns has been incredible. Like he's 514 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,239 Speaker 1: getting over four shots per ninety, Like he's scored eight 515 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: goals already, Like he is a valuable threat and transition 516 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 1: that can really exploit Liverpool. The other thing about Liverpool 517 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: is Trenty Alexander Arnold's back for them, which is generally 518 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 1: good thing right for them in possession, but out of 519 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 1: possession it's actually more of a I wouldn't say, you know, 520 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: more of a hindrance to them because of the way 521 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 1: they want to play him. They want him to invert, 522 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: they want to be their main passer out of the midfield, 523 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 1: and he's generally good at that, but when he inverts, 524 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: he leaves space and Knate has been very good at 525 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 1: cleaning that stuff up. But again, this is a Fullham 526 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 1: team that can really exploit you in the wide areas. 527 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:57,119 Speaker 1: So and a team that still is putting in a 528 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:02,119 Speaker 1: ton of crosses. So and you say crossing every Goalate 529 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 1: a very good at crossing, yes, yeah. And if you 530 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 1: saw against Atlanta, I mean the way that Liverpool gave 531 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,119 Speaker 1: a lot of chances is they just struggled defending in 532 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 1: wide areas. The same thing happened on the goal against 533 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,440 Speaker 1: Crystal Palace this past weekend is that when they were 534 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 1: tracking back in transition, it didn't closed people down out wide. 535 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 1: They lost asa going into the box and it was 536 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 1: an easy tap in goal. Like Fulham can replicate that 537 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: type of stuff very easily. Like this is kind of 538 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: just so bad. So they are definitely live here, not 539 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: only to win, because they've obviously played way better at 540 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 1: home than they have on the road. So I'm on, 541 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: I'm with you Fulham plus one. 542 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, Awobe's the guy for me, that late run stuff. 543 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 2: He's been so good with that this year and really 544 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,159 Speaker 2: when Liverpoo, when Fulham went through their stretch where they 545 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 2: just could not score, it was when Munise was out 546 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: and Owobe was out and they had Raul like in 547 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 2: and out of the lineup, and it was Carlos venetious like. 548 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 2: They had that really bad stretch in January February after 549 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 2: their big winning run, that was their worst stretch of 550 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,360 Speaker 2: the season. Fulham as healthy as they've been all year 551 00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 2: and with a Wobey making those late penalty rocks runs 552 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 2: that Liverpool have struggled to cope with. I think that's 553 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 2: an angle. What's what's uh, what's a woebe to score? 554 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:17,119 Speaker 1: A woeby is? Oh, it sucks like it's kinda alex 555 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: A Woby is six to one to score in this match. 556 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a couple of bucks on that. I 557 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 2: think he's the player that makes the light box run. 558 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 1: I'll be on Moonees who is closer to three. 559 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 2: Bet moanes every week. I don't know, I do you're 560 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 2: buying high on yougo, although you know, I. 561 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 1: Mean he's like three to one now, it's a good player. 562 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 2: Uh, maybe we'll see. I'm still a little need to 563 00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 2: see it for more than like two months for him 564 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 2: because the first most of his time in the PREM 565 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 2: was bad. So Fulham Yeah, Fulham plus one for me. 566 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 2: That's the only title race fixtures. And with that, as 567 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,160 Speaker 2: we transition into the second half of the show, reminder 568 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,160 Speaker 2: that wonder goal is presented by Bet three sixty five. 569 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 2: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you 570 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 2: get more boost with them than with anyone else. Every 571 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 2: day they power up the odds one hundreds of bets 572 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 2: to give you a chance to win more. They boost 573 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 2: specific markets, your winnings and even parlays, and they don't 574 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 2: stop there. Keep an eye out for their biggest and 575 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 2: best odds with the incredible super boost. Check out these 576 00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 2: boosts and see why it's never ordinary. At Bet three 577 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: six y five, you must be twenty one or older 578 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,879 Speaker 2: and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, 579 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 2: and North Carolina, or eighteen or older in Kentucky. Gambling 580 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,480 Speaker 2: problem called one one hundred gambler terms, conditions and restrictions 581 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 2: apply second half of the prem Slay. There is a 582 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 2: couple really ugly ones this weekend down at the bottom 583 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 2: of the table starting with Lutontown. This is an important 584 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,840 Speaker 2: one though, and Brentford it is an important one because 585 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:41,959 Speaker 2: a win for our Bees would pretty much put the 586 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 2: race to bed for them as far as their title 587 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 2: or relegation concerns are currently constructed. At the bottom of 588 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 2: the table right now, Brentford thirty two, Everton twenty seven, 589 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 2: ninem Forrest twenty six, Luton twenty five, Burnley twenty and 590 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 2: Sheffield sixteen. If you're looking at the relegation odds, since 591 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 2: we're kind of going into this relegation section, Burnley minus 592 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 2: twenty five hundred, Luton minus one eighty eight, Nottingham Forest 593 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 2: plus two twenty five, Everton down to four to one, 594 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,880 Speaker 2: Brentford one hundred and one, Palace two hundred and one, 595 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 2: So those two are pretty safe. Brentford's probably safe either way, 596 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 2: just given how bad those teams are at the bottom 597 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 2: and how few points we expect them to take. Brentford 598 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 2: can really basically confirm it with a win this week 599 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,680 Speaker 2: against Luton would put them ten points clear with five 600 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 2: matches to go. Brentford's a plus one fifteen road dog 601 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:33,960 Speaker 2: BJ your favorite bet of the year, probably your most 602 00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 2: profitable wager. 603 00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: Are we back yep over three minus one ten? This 604 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 1: all comes down to how Newton Town's gonna play right 605 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 1: Like they have been playing agrestively, then they've kind of 606 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 1: switched back to being more passive out of possession, playing 607 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,240 Speaker 1: lower blocks like you saw that against Arsenal and for 608 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 1: time ago the City. Now that they get to play 609 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: a team that's kind of near the bottom of the 610 00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 1: table with them, and a team that has a very 611 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: clear weakness, which is Brentford's defending and transition, I think 612 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: they have to go for this right Like, I don't 613 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 1: know if a point is good enough for them to 614 00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: help them get out of the relegations. So and unfortunately 615 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: for Lutontown they might not have any center backs available 616 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 1: to play in this match. They didn't have any available 617 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: against City, all of them. Richard Issa Kabori, who's by 618 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,760 Speaker 1: nature right back who's been forced to play in a 619 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: back three, couldn't play against his parent club, so it 620 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 1: was very dire situation for them. It looks like Mengi 621 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 1: might be back for them, like he's the only one 622 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 1: that's questionable. Otherwise every other center back is out. So 623 00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 1: does Lutontown play in a low defensive block and just 624 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 1: kind of try to delay the inevitable, or do they 625 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 1: come out go man a man press Brentford try to 626 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 1: force some high turn numbers. Where we have seen Brentford 627 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: when they've been the ones that you know, want to 628 00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 1: possess the ball and everything like that, they have been 629 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: a little shaky in possession in terms of building up. 630 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 1: They can definitely turn them ball over high. And for 631 00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,400 Speaker 1: Brentford defensively, not only have they been bad in transition, 632 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: but what's really hurt them this season is that their 633 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 1: best two fullbacks have just been injured. For Enrico Henry 634 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 1: and Aaron Hickey have been out for the entire season 635 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 1: and they've been on backups for essentially we get you 636 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:26,120 Speaker 1: the whole season. They're nineteenth in defending crosses into the 637 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 1: penalty area. How does Looton Town create all of their 638 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 1: chances from open play? It's crosses, that's it. That's all 639 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: they do. So I generally think we're going to see 640 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 1: a very back and forth type match. I am projecting 641 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 1: value on the B's here. I really don't trust them though, 642 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 1: with how bad their transition defense is. They sat Ivan 643 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,840 Speaker 1: Tony against Sheffield. I know they only created one expected goal, 644 00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: but they started Neil Molpi and it was kind of 645 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 1: a lackluster showing. Sheffield played a low block and was 646 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: pretty successful for large stretches of the match. But I mean, 647 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: is it crazy to say that Sheffield's a little block 648 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 1: is better than Luton's at this juncture? 649 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 2: Yeah it is, I mean because they were actually the 650 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 2: first defense in the league. Yeah, Luton is the worst 651 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 2: so with the injuries. 652 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, with the injuries as well. So because of those injuries, 653 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 1: I don't think Luton Town has a choice of what 654 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 1: they have to do here, so which is going to 655 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 1: end up being a very back and forth type match. 656 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:22,960 Speaker 1: And Lowton Town's pretty average defending set pieces too, which 657 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,680 Speaker 1: is always problem. It's Brentford, so over three minus one 658 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: ten projected three point eight goals. If you want to 659 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,680 Speaker 1: take some Brentford team total, I think that's fine too, 660 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 1: But yeah, or any any juncture in over two and 661 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,520 Speaker 1: a half both teams to score. I generally think this 662 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 1: is going to be a very back and forth tech match. 663 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 2: I agree Brentford team total over for me, don't really 664 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,040 Speaker 2: trust Luton's attack enough, think that they've gotten just about 665 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 2: everything they can possibly get out of that attack, and 666 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 2: so I'm a little skeptical to back it at this 667 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,280 Speaker 2: point with these prices we're getting. But I said, I 668 00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 2: do believe that the bottom has fallen out on this 669 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 2: defense and the way they're playing to squeeze everything out 670 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,240 Speaker 2: of the attack is leaving so much space and Brentford, 671 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,200 Speaker 2: I mean it's crazy to say, but like, in for 672 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 2: it as a road favorite, it's going to be the 673 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 2: team with space and behind to operate, and so like, 674 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 2: I just think that they torched them and it's like 675 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 2: a two one to two two kind of game. I 676 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 2: agree with You're over as well. Of course obviously correlated 677 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 2: next game. Neither of us have anything here. Sheffield United 678 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 2: versus Burnley must win, I mean actually lost things both teams. 679 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 2: So this is a game where, like live, you almost 680 00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,400 Speaker 2: want to, you know, think about that as we get 681 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 2: toward the second half here live overs, if it's tied, 682 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:36,240 Speaker 2: live money lines, if it's tied late either side, you 683 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 2: can't really bet no draw live usually you could. I 684 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 2: mean there are markets where you can bet double chance, 685 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,680 Speaker 2: usually live. So maybe if you see like a double 686 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 2: chance one team to win it or the other the 687 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 2: game to not end in a draw, it's worth a 688 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,440 Speaker 2: shot because these this is the kind of game. It 689 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 2: may start slow, but in that second half things can 690 00:33:57,960 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 2: get really crazy. 691 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,480 Speaker 1: Yes, I think I actually have something here. 692 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:03,880 Speaker 2: I don't agree with Burnley being a full Road favorite. 693 00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 2: I just don't really want to. I think I think 694 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 2: they're like a slight Road favorite. It's like a tenth 695 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:12,279 Speaker 2: of a goal. I have this Sheffield by like zero 696 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:16,560 Speaker 2: point h two, so I guess there's value on Sheffield United, 697 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 2: but like, no thanks on that front. 698 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,760 Speaker 1: I actually total I will. 699 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,239 Speaker 2: Not touch just because game state is so important. It 700 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,120 Speaker 2: is you know, if it's one nil, then you know 701 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 2: it's more interesting to say that team could try to 702 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 2: hold them out and I don't really trust either attack 703 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 2: against a lower block. But the minute this game is 704 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,839 Speaker 2: tied again, both teams cannot do the draw. So this 705 00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:40,640 Speaker 2: is an easy pass for me. I'm excited to watch 706 00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 2: this late, like I'll put it on in the second half. 707 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,360 Speaker 2: If it's close, it'll second screen. I think it's the 708 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,799 Speaker 2: same time as the Lowton Brentford match, so I might 709 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,280 Speaker 2: even get main screen second half for me on Saturday. 710 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 2: But I have not interested in betting this. 711 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:56,879 Speaker 1: I have a shot prop for this one Sheffield under 712 00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 1: thirteen and a half shots in this match because cuz 713 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,560 Speaker 1: I project ten for this. If you want to see 714 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 1: my shot props, you can go to the Action Never discord, 715 00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,720 Speaker 1: I'll post them before the weekend slate. The previous match 716 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,440 Speaker 1: got a little off the rails and Burnley won at 717 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: five nothing because you know Sheffield did get a red 718 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,239 Speaker 1: card at halftime. But what we know about Burnley is 719 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 1: they can go back to their old Championship roots. Here, 720 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,800 Speaker 1: they can build out of the back, they can possess 721 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 1: the ball and I wouldn't be surprised if they controlled 722 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 1: sixty sixty five plus percent possession of this match and 723 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,080 Speaker 1: just try to pin Sheffield in. And Sheffield I generally 724 00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 1: believe that their only chances in this match are going 725 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,839 Speaker 1: to come in transitional moments. Even in the previous meeting, 726 00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 1: before the red card happened at halftime, Sheffield only taken 727 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,720 Speaker 1: three shots, and if you watch their match against Brentford 728 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,440 Speaker 1: where they only took eight shots, all their chances just 729 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 1: were from a low from transitioning from a low block 730 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 1: and trying to score that way. Yes they have play 731 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,360 Speaker 1: more aggressive, Yes they have to go for this because 732 00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 1: they need three points, but generally saying that from the jump, 733 00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: when a team is going to control a lot of possession, 734 00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:03,440 Speaker 1: you generally think that you know, yes, they're gonna do that. 735 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 1: But as we get more towards the second half, like 736 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,480 Speaker 1: you said, then the aggression comes in. Then they start 737 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:09,879 Speaker 1: to go for it. And if they don't have many 738 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,400 Speaker 1: shots to get there, and to begin with, it's a 739 00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,359 Speaker 1: hard time seeing how they're gonna get fourteen shots. They're 740 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,000 Speaker 1: only averaging eight point eight shots per ninety Sheffield is 741 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,360 Speaker 1: this season. So I get that Burnley's bad defensively, but 742 00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:25,000 Speaker 1: Burnley's gonna control a lot of this match, so Sheffield 743 00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:26,719 Speaker 1: might get a couple of goals on some transitional moments. 744 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:29,160 Speaker 1: And even if Sheffield goes ahead, it's not like they're 745 00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:30,920 Speaker 1: gonna stay aggressive, like they're just gonna sit in there 746 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 1: little block. So I think thirteen and a half is 747 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:36,360 Speaker 1: high on shots, So I like Sheffield under thirteen and 748 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: a half shots, all. 749 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 2: Right, Shifting to Sunday. Three matches, four matches, actually one 750 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,520 Speaker 2: we already discussed so Everton notty m Forrest. If you 751 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,360 Speaker 2: saw if you fo them in the app, then you 752 00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:50,479 Speaker 2: know my first pass through this slate, there was one 753 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,400 Speaker 2: side that immediately jumped out to me. I took some 754 00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,440 Speaker 2: forests plus a half even money and plus three twenty. 755 00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,840 Speaker 2: Now the market has come down on both because on Monday, 756 00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:05,279 Speaker 2: after this bet that I made, Everton got beat six nil. 757 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,640 Speaker 2: Now there were some real alarm bells. I know the 758 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 2: ex GME was closer. There were some real alarm bells 759 00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,279 Speaker 2: for Everton. Defensively, how easy it was to get up 760 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 2: the wing on them. Chelsea's pace really caused a lot 761 00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,640 Speaker 2: of problems. Pickford was awful, really probably could have saved 762 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,279 Speaker 2: the one goal and then was obviously at fault for 763 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,400 Speaker 2: the Palmer second. I didn't watch the second half. I 764 00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 2: don't know what happened. I was on my couch ready 765 00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,239 Speaker 2: to watch the match, and I said, you know what, 766 00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 2: it's a beautiful day. I'm gonna go to the park. 767 00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 2: I'm going for a walk and listen to a podcast. 768 00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:36,399 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna watch the second half of a match 769 00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,439 Speaker 2: that's already three four noil. My bet was dead under 770 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:42,320 Speaker 2: three your bet, I think you bet Everton. We did, Everton. 771 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,120 Speaker 2: Somebody messaged us because we had a great Saturday, and 772 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,640 Speaker 2: somebody said, it's days like these that a while. I'll 773 00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,680 Speaker 2: keep betting Everton, Well, I'm betting against Everton. Yeah, I'm 774 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,560 Speaker 2: betting against Everton. I think Forrest has really turned the corner. 775 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,200 Speaker 2: Their metrics continue to trend up. I think they're like 776 00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:58,839 Speaker 2: the eleventh best team in the league. And I think 777 00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,640 Speaker 2: Everton on current form now a lot of weight you 778 00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,440 Speaker 2: have to put into the first half of the season 779 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:08,919 Speaker 2: to say Everton is better than NNAM forced. I think 780 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 2: at worst it's a it's a coin flip, and that's 781 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 2: the way the trend lines are going. I don't know 782 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,959 Speaker 2: that there's value anymore in like laying minus one twenty 783 00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,200 Speaker 2: one twenty five on the plus a half. But we're 784 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,000 Speaker 2: going to talk about Forest in a little bit as 785 00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 2: a little teaser as to who I might have in 786 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 2: a certain parlay that never wins. 787 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 1: Oh sometimes once once. 788 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:29,640 Speaker 2: Well out of this. This feels like a two out 789 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 2: of three week. Yeah, definitely, they're seeing the three teams. 790 00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, this has passed for me. I've steered away from 791 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,799 Speaker 1: the betting Everton as a as a home favorite and 792 00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:42,320 Speaker 1: needing to win type of thing, just because yeah, Monday's 793 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,560 Speaker 1: performance is bad. But again, I will say, if Beto 794 00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,600 Speaker 1: doesn't miss that tappen right at the beginning. It's a 795 00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,960 Speaker 1: very different game, right I say that, But then you 796 00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:52,319 Speaker 1: know it's. 797 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, it would have been six to one. 798 00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, it could have been six to one. That's right. 799 00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,040 Speaker 1: Well it changes the complexion of things. 800 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 2: But yeah, just like I tweet point nine six extually 801 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:01,959 Speaker 2: missed from bet. 802 00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,319 Speaker 1: Yeah it was a point nine, Like I tweeted after 803 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,560 Speaker 1: three nail because they actually was like one point foward 804 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,280 Speaker 1: to one point one. I was like, it's a perfect 805 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 1: Everson match. It's just like they missed a huge chance. 806 00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 1: The other team scores on some low quality ones. Pickford 807 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,440 Speaker 1: was terrible, not encouraging for the Euros. I'll say that 808 00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,759 Speaker 1: if Pickford's in bad form for England, yeah, this is 809 00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:21,560 Speaker 1: a past for me. I generally agree with you that 810 00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:26,800 Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest has really improved. I think playing Morgan gives 811 00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,160 Speaker 1: white As more and more of a central role, has 812 00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,560 Speaker 1: really helped them and elevated them. Raina getting on he 813 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:37,440 Speaker 1: was okay against Wolves, has been a really pacey winger 814 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,319 Speaker 1: that has helped them out quite a bit they didn't 815 00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,400 Speaker 1: really have before. And Chris Wood it is just Chris Wood. 816 00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 1: So but it always has to worry you, Anthony how 817 00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,480 Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest is on set pieces against the Severton at 818 00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:55,600 Speaker 1: Everton's set piece offense. So if this almost it's gonna 819 00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,320 Speaker 1: be because of that. So your two favorite peas three. 820 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 2: Favorite teams are all set piece merchants in Everton and 821 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,360 Speaker 2: Arsenal merchants. I prefer teams who can create real chances. 822 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:08,360 Speaker 1: It's part of the game. 823 00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:11,359 Speaker 2: Like notingam Forrest and they're one point twenty seven next 824 00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:12,680 Speaker 2: g for ninety this season. 825 00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:14,759 Speaker 1: Part of the game, of course. 826 00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,759 Speaker 2: I just Forrest gave up another one on the set 827 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:18,640 Speaker 2: piece last week. 828 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,319 Speaker 1: And it it could very easily happen here. So if 829 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:24,440 Speaker 1: they if book ever offers the bet, and I really 830 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,799 Speaker 1: wish they would of just a team to score off 831 00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,759 Speaker 1: of a corner, I would bet Everton here, but they 832 00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,000 Speaker 1: won't offer that, So I'm passing. 833 00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,000 Speaker 2: What's the what's the way to go at it? We 834 00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,800 Speaker 2: take some Jared Branthwaite anytime, Michael. 835 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,440 Speaker 1: If Michael won this podcast, he tell you Jared Brandtwait 836 00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,000 Speaker 1: like thirty five to one first goal scorer. 837 00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:45,840 Speaker 2: Inside baseball stuff. Here at Action Network, we have a 838 00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:50,399 Speaker 2: slack channel called Groupers. Uh Leebov probably has more contributions 839 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:52,279 Speaker 2: than anybody in the history of the company. If you 840 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:56,279 Speaker 2: could imagine why we tend to focus on absurd long 841 00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,560 Speaker 2: shot bets. Not always know it could be anything, but 842 00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:02,080 Speaker 2: they usually don't win. 843 00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:04,239 Speaker 1: Sometimes they're not supposed to win. 844 00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:05,800 Speaker 2: You're not supposed to win, yeah're supposed to lose in 845 00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,920 Speaker 2: painful fashion. So he sent Jared branthwaye forty five to 846 00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,760 Speaker 2: one at like two o'clock and Monday, and I considered 847 00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:13,279 Speaker 2: betting it, and I said, you know what, there's zero 848 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 2: chance I'm not doing it, So I did not leave 849 00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,919 Speaker 2: Off lost. He's not here to defend himself, but he'll 850 00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:20,640 Speaker 2: tell you it was a great bet, all right. Next one, 851 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,760 Speaker 2: you know, Pallas is a plus one fifteen home favorite 852 00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:29,560 Speaker 2: against west Ham United. Imagine I love this because the 853 00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,440 Speaker 2: people who think west Ham is good, you know, they 854 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,440 Speaker 2: need to recoup their money because they bet them as 855 00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:37,520 Speaker 2: a measly home favorite against Fulham. They lost. And now 856 00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:41,240 Speaker 2: you know, packet To probably plays because he's not eligible 857 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,480 Speaker 2: for Thursday's Europa League. So I'd imagine Packetta plays. Bowen 858 00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,440 Speaker 2: probably not fully fit for Thursday, but he might even 859 00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:51,279 Speaker 2: play Sunday. With that being said, Pallace, fresh off their 860 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,520 Speaker 2: biggest winner of the season, have as a end at 861 00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:56,759 Speaker 2: least a fit and Glosner. This is the first time 862 00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,239 Speaker 2: Glosner has had both of them and it was really 863 00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,000 Speaker 2: interesting they play. He played them both centrally and then 864 00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,160 Speaker 2: the overlapping runs Tarik Mitchell like really successful up the 865 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,759 Speaker 2: one winging like it was a very functional attack that 866 00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:09,759 Speaker 2: really should have scored more than one. I know their 867 00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,800 Speaker 2: defense gave up like four xget at Liverpool, and Liverpool 868 00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:15,640 Speaker 2: missed a ton of chances, but Palace should have had 869 00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,880 Speaker 2: two in that game. They fully deserved more than what 870 00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:20,879 Speaker 2: they got. And I think that their attack is really 871 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,360 Speaker 2: as upside as they're fully fit right now, so it 872 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,239 Speaker 2: would actually be palasing nothing for me. But this number, 873 00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:27,400 Speaker 2: I mean, like I could not be even were in 874 00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,000 Speaker 2: line with the market. It's frustrating because I thought we'd 875 00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,360 Speaker 2: get like plus one forty and I bet Palace, but 876 00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,000 Speaker 2: a plus one fifteen like no, thanks, pass. 877 00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,799 Speaker 1: Yep, I agree, pass uh right line with the market 878 00:42:38,880 --> 00:42:42,960 Speaker 1: as well. Palace at Palace and plus one thirty seven 879 00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,640 Speaker 1: total at two point seven Palace team total that right 880 00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,359 Speaker 1: at one point five that you know, it's minus one 881 00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,160 Speaker 1: ten both ways on that I have Palace projected at 882 00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:54,840 Speaker 1: thirteen and a half shots and that's what they're projected, 883 00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,439 Speaker 1: that's what their line is, so just way in line 884 00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,279 Speaker 1: with the market. Still would like to see more of 885 00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:02,000 Speaker 1: Glossmer with Lisa and Asa here. I think this would 886 00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,440 Speaker 1: be a good This is a really good match to 887 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,399 Speaker 1: watch for what Crystal Palace could be next season if 888 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,000 Speaker 1: everybody stays even, which is probably not the reality, but 889 00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,239 Speaker 1: what they could be against some teams in the lower 890 00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,120 Speaker 1: half of the table to play low blocks, and if 891 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:20,279 Speaker 1: they'd be actually be a betable favorite at those We'll 892 00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,080 Speaker 1: see if we ever get to that point, but it's 893 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,040 Speaker 1: a good litmus test for them. 894 00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,560 Speaker 2: All right. Last game in the prem we're both in agreement. 895 00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,360 Speaker 2: Villa's hosting Bournemouth. Villa play Leal on Thursday in the 896 00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,560 Speaker 2: Conference League, then they're gonna host Bourne. 897 00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:32,759 Speaker 1: Myth. 898 00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,000 Speaker 2: I want to play against this Villa defense. I don't 899 00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,719 Speaker 2: really trust Bournemouth defense with a fully healthy Villa playing 900 00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:39,239 Speaker 2: on the break too. I think this game could be 901 00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,480 Speaker 2: really fun to open end to end. But I like 902 00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,799 Speaker 2: Bournemouth team total over first half plus one oh five, 903 00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,000 Speaker 2: team total over full game plus one forty. You're also 904 00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:47,600 Speaker 2: on Bournemouth b. 905 00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:51,600 Speaker 1: Jack Yes, Bourne myth plus a half plus one twenty 906 00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:53,640 Speaker 1: and bournemoth team total. Either way you want to play 907 00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:56,719 Speaker 1: it and it's up to you. Yeah. The first meeting, 908 00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,160 Speaker 1: I believe this is one of the few times we 909 00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,160 Speaker 1: went against each other, I believe, and I think you 910 00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:02,960 Speaker 1: had Bournemouth plus a half at home and I had 911 00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:06,000 Speaker 1: Villa that back when Bournemouth I think just came off 912 00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,880 Speaker 1: there their big win against Newcastle and were starting to 913 00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:10,440 Speaker 1: trend the right way and I was dead wrong and 914 00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:12,640 Speaker 1: it ended up being a draw. But I went back 915 00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 1: and watched the highlights from that match and what Bournemouth did, 916 00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:17,759 Speaker 1: and I believe what I believe they can do here 917 00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,880 Speaker 1: is be really effective with their high press. They stole 918 00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:23,840 Speaker 1: a goal off of it. And in the previous meeting, 919 00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:29,880 Speaker 1: And what was interesting about uh Villa's build up structure 920 00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:35,080 Speaker 1: against Arsenal because Bournemouth do play a pretty similar type 921 00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:39,520 Speaker 1: of hybrid high press that Arsenal does. Where the general 922 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,000 Speaker 1: consensus is you know, if you have a hybrid high press, 923 00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,920 Speaker 1: what that means is like, partly it's man demand and 924 00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:52,120 Speaker 1: partly its zone right. So for Arsenal's case, they concede 925 00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:54,040 Speaker 1: the space in the central part of the pitch with 926 00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:56,560 Speaker 1: the essentially passes over the top because they believe That'salba 927 00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,959 Speaker 1: and Gabrielle are good enough at getting forward and winning 928 00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:01,799 Speaker 1: those balls, whereas Bournemouth is kind of similar, except they 929 00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,279 Speaker 1: leave bases out wide. He's like to push teams from 930 00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,240 Speaker 1: one side of the pitch and then force those teams 931 00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:09,000 Speaker 1: to play a long switch play pass and they believe 932 00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,680 Speaker 1: that they can be fast enough to recover that amount 933 00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:16,040 Speaker 1: of ground. Aston Villa was dropping a lot of guys 934 00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,520 Speaker 1: deep and build up against Arsenal, like trying to get 935 00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:22,359 Speaker 1: numerical advantages, and they really struggled in the first half 936 00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,640 Speaker 1: and it really wasn't in are a good you know, 937 00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,520 Speaker 1: when our our good friend John McKenzie, who hopefully we'll 938 00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,879 Speaker 1: get on this podcast someday pointed out that they didn't 939 00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:32,919 Speaker 1: really change what they did in the second half against Arsenal, 940 00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,280 Speaker 1: They just executed better. Right. They were trying to find 941 00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,760 Speaker 1: these three man triangles on each side of the pitch 942 00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:39,920 Speaker 1: and Emery just kind of just said, hey, stick with 943 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,880 Speaker 1: the plan, like it'll work. And it did. And partly 944 00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,359 Speaker 1: maybe because they, you know, Arsenal wore down a little 945 00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:48,480 Speaker 1: bit obviously, maybe a little tired. Prest just wasn't as effective. 946 00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:51,600 Speaker 1: But I tell you what, if Arsenal could convert some 947 00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,800 Speaker 1: of the chances they had in the first half against Phila, like, 948 00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,480 Speaker 1: it could have been a very very different story. And 949 00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,600 Speaker 1: that's what can happen here against Bournemouth if because Bournemouth 950 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,200 Speaker 1: has been really good at getting those chances and finishing 951 00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,920 Speaker 1: them off of these high turnovers. So uh, and even 952 00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:09,279 Speaker 1: if you go from the beginning of February, Bournemouth is 953 00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,799 Speaker 1: about a plus a half actually differential per ninety Villa 954 00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,280 Speaker 1: is at like minus point one five like. The underlying 955 00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:18,799 Speaker 1: numbers have been significantly better for Bournemouth, so I think 956 00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,120 Speaker 1: Villa is a little overvalued here. I have them projected 957 00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:25,040 Speaker 1: at plus one oh nine, so anything plus a half 958 00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:26,799 Speaker 1: plus one ten or better is good enough for me. 959 00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:30,480 Speaker 1: Projected them for one point six goals as well, so 960 00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:33,040 Speaker 1: maybe I'll steer more towards the team total than plus 961 00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,080 Speaker 1: a half like and enjoin you all. 962 00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,200 Speaker 2: Right, that'll do it. For the Premier League. We are 963 00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,160 Speaker 2: gonna have a midwek episode where we talk through the 964 00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,840 Speaker 2: six in the midweek as well, so more to come. 965 00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:49,879 Speaker 2: Fixtures are coming fast. Bundesliga relegation six pointer Cologne Dharmstaff duje, 966 00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:53,040 Speaker 2: What a match? Was so much excitement for this. 967 00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:59,080 Speaker 1: One a match. This is where we've you know, we're 968 00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,320 Speaker 1: getting close to the time. It's one of our favorite 969 00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:05,759 Speaker 1: times the soccer calendar, where these relegation teams that need 970 00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:07,799 Speaker 1: to win playing against teams that have nothing to play 971 00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:14,720 Speaker 1: for get significantly overvalued. That's what's happened here. Cologne still 972 00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:18,160 Speaker 1: has an outside shot of getting into the relegation playoff, 973 00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,360 Speaker 1: although I believe, I think people believe that Mine is a 974 00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,520 Speaker 1: significantly better team and will be fine and Colone is 975 00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,960 Speaker 1: eventually going to get relegated. They're laying minus two twenty 976 00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,400 Speaker 1: at home against Armstadt and I get Darmstadt's dead like 977 00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,120 Speaker 1: they're not going to stay off relegation. They're already going 978 00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:36,560 Speaker 1: to the second division. But Cologne has won the expected 979 00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:38,640 Speaker 1: goals battle in four matches this season. Two of them 980 00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,279 Speaker 1: they've been playing up a man for a majority of 981 00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,280 Speaker 1: the match. One was against Darmstadt it was one point 982 00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,280 Speaker 1: five to point seven, and the other one came against 983 00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,400 Speaker 1: Bocham where they got two late goals to win to one. 984 00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,600 Speaker 1: So there really hasn't been a significant performance since they 985 00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,080 Speaker 1: fired the manager in the midway through point through the season, 986 00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,600 Speaker 1: and if you look through Darmstadt, there have been some 987 00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,959 Speaker 1: encouraging matches. Their last one against Freiburg was pretty decent, 988 00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,319 Speaker 1: and so I just think this is crazy, like for 989 00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:05,080 Speaker 1: this bat of a team to be laying minus two 990 00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,759 Speaker 1: twenty so like Darmstock plus one and they'll probably lose 991 00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,880 Speaker 1: my multiple goals. But again, this is a crazy line 992 00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,319 Speaker 1: and maybe I like darmstadd enough to put them in 993 00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,839 Speaker 1: our underdog parlay. Have to tune in later. 994 00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:19,520 Speaker 2: There are some glaring red signs hanging over Osburg right now. 995 00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:21,879 Speaker 2: A few teams have run better. They've had good red 996 00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:24,680 Speaker 2: card luck last week against Unjo and they did not 997 00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:27,680 Speaker 2: manage a shot in the first half. Unyon dominated and 998 00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:31,600 Speaker 2: then Unyon played a backpass right to the Augsburg striker 999 00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:36,680 Speaker 2: who didn't miss from one on one, and then everything changes. 1000 00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,280 Speaker 2: They went at home, but I think they're a walking 1001 00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:42,720 Speaker 2: fraud and I think they're overvalued against Iron Track Frankfort, 1002 00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:45,759 Speaker 2: who has better underline numbers, especially in the last couple 1003 00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:49,280 Speaker 2: of months. So Frankfurt plus money at home on Friday afternoon. 1004 00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:51,520 Speaker 2: I'm going to fade Osburg on Friday again and see 1005 00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,960 Speaker 2: if I can have better luck this week because their 1006 00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:57,600 Speaker 2: defense has real holes that I think frankfort can exploit 1007 00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,719 Speaker 2: at home. Or they did pretty good this year. We 1008 00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:04,720 Speaker 2: got two huge matches in Europe non England matches this weekend. 1009 00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,680 Speaker 2: Huge as a relative term, But we're gonna start with 1010 00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:13,279 Speaker 2: L Classico, who could decide the title race and whether 1011 00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,400 Speaker 2: or not we have a title race. So the current situation, 1012 00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:23,719 Speaker 2: Girona has faded. Yeah, they're not five Yeah, lost to 1013 00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,800 Speaker 2: at Letti pretty comfortably last weekend. They are now playing. 1014 00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,600 Speaker 2: They're five points behind. Barsa is eight points back with 1015 00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,000 Speaker 2: seven to play. They have to win this to have 1016 00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:35,319 Speaker 2: a chance. Now, the problem is, even if they win this, 1017 00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:41,520 Speaker 2: Real Madrid's remaining fixtures at Sociadad that's tough, then Cadiz, Granada, Alavas, Virial, 1018 00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,480 Speaker 2: Real Batist so it's tough to see them drop in 1019 00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,319 Speaker 2: like more than five points for the rest of the season. Yeah, 1020 00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:49,640 Speaker 2: and Barca we have to run the table pretty much 1021 00:49:49,680 --> 00:49:51,360 Speaker 2: to have a chance. I don't really see it, but 1022 00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:54,239 Speaker 2: they're still gonna play this match, and I don't. I mean, 1023 00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:58,600 Speaker 2: if you watch Barcelona their last two matches, even against Cadiz, like, 1024 00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,560 Speaker 2: their defense is still awful. They have no ball winners, 1025 00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:04,600 Speaker 2: they're gonna let real run. In transition, Barsa's still got 1026 00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,399 Speaker 2: great attackers, they're going to score. I like over three. 1027 00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:09,359 Speaker 2: Usually we get two and a half two seven five. 1028 00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:11,319 Speaker 2: I'm fine with three. I have this closer to three 1029 00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:14,200 Speaker 2: and a half. I'm so down on this BARSA defense. 1030 00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,600 Speaker 2: When they play good competition. Right now, there is zero 1031 00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,440 Speaker 2: ball stopping. There were so many sequences even before the 1032 00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,799 Speaker 2: Arajo red card, where PSG had odd man rushes going 1033 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:26,040 Speaker 2: at Barsa's back line. The moves didn't quite come off. 1034 00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:30,200 Speaker 2: But the first matchup, forty touches for PSG in the 1035 00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:35,000 Speaker 2: in the Barsa penalty area. Forty That is insane. That 1036 00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:37,839 Speaker 2: is the most PSG has had in any Champions League match. 1037 00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:41,880 Speaker 2: That was eleven on eleven in two plus years. And 1038 00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,800 Speaker 2: they played some pretty bad teams in the time period. 1039 00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:49,560 Speaker 2: So it just domination from PSG. And you know, it 1040 00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:51,520 Speaker 2: kind of gets at the point. So I like over 1041 00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:53,400 Speaker 2: three here. I think both teams score. I think this 1042 00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:54,919 Speaker 2: is like a two two to three two kind of games. 1043 00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:57,120 Speaker 1: Well, wonderful for me to follow it up that I'd 1044 00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:59,440 Speaker 1: say that I like Barsa plus one that minus one 1045 00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,160 Speaker 1: thirty five. Yes, I agree that they have no ball 1046 00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:04,320 Speaker 1: stopping in this midfield. But I do think Barcelona is 1047 00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:08,879 Speaker 1: a much better team when they have Pedrie deong all 1048 00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:11,239 Speaker 1: available because they can actually build up. And you know, 1049 00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:14,400 Speaker 1: Real Madrid they're not a team like PSG like, they 1050 00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:16,600 Speaker 1: won't press high, they won't try to force high turnovers, 1051 00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:20,440 Speaker 1: they'll be more passive. You know, they were very they 1052 00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:22,480 Speaker 1: weren't good in a low defensive block against City, but 1053 00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:25,080 Speaker 1: they were released somewhat competent. And it kind of hits 1054 00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:28,120 Speaker 1: home the point that Barcelona have all of these great 1055 00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,719 Speaker 1: attackers that can't exploit Real Madrid even if they play 1056 00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:34,040 Speaker 1: very passively. And yes they don't have a lot of 1057 00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:35,680 Speaker 1: ball stopping in the middle of the pitch, but where 1058 00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:37,840 Speaker 1: Real Madrid actually wins, the ball is going to be 1059 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,360 Speaker 1: lower on instead of the pitch and give Barcelona a 1060 00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:43,160 Speaker 1: better chance to defend a transition. And you know, Barcelona 1061 00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:47,360 Speaker 1: Rohi and Kuberassi, since they've kind of become the center 1062 00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:49,759 Speaker 1: back pairing, they actually have improved quite a bit, only 1063 00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,640 Speaker 1: allowing point eight three x G for ninety minutes since 1064 00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:54,640 Speaker 1: those two have become the center back pairing, so it's 1065 00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,839 Speaker 1: been a little bit better. Got to remember Barcelona's gone 1066 00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:58,920 Speaker 1: through a lot of injuries this season, but you know 1067 00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,279 Speaker 1: it is what it is. You can look over all 1068 00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:03,840 Speaker 1: for the season, like Barcelona does have better underlying metrics 1069 00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,440 Speaker 1: than Real Madrid. I'm not saying that's like the reason 1070 00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:09,239 Speaker 1: that I'm making this bet, because I do believe Real 1071 00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:12,040 Speaker 1: Madrid is a better team, but I generally believe, especially 1072 00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:14,359 Speaker 1: given the spot where Real Madrid just played one hundred 1073 00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:17,359 Speaker 1: and twenty minutes in Manchester and then coming back having 1074 00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:20,279 Speaker 1: to play Barcelona even though they are at home, it's 1075 00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:22,440 Speaker 1: not a great spot for them. So I like Barcelona 1076 00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,520 Speaker 1: plus one. I think that Real Madrid is a little 1077 00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:25,480 Speaker 1: overvalid here at home. 1078 00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:28,360 Speaker 2: Cannot wait to see what the market opens next season 1079 00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,520 Speaker 2: with Embappe at Real Madrid for them to win laa Liga. 1080 00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:32,719 Speaker 2: It'll be fascinating, it'll be fun. 1081 00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:34,520 Speaker 1: We'll have to see who Barcelona's coach is going to 1082 00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:35,600 Speaker 1: be at that exactly. 1083 00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:41,640 Speaker 2: Next match, it's big one Milan Darby Inter against AC Milan. 1084 00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:44,080 Speaker 2: I have a bet here. I like Inter plus one 1085 00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,960 Speaker 2: point fifteen. Think that they are just so good in 1086 00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:50,080 Speaker 2: transition and it has wrecked Milan in almost every meeting 1087 00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,640 Speaker 2: they've had for the last few years, including those Champions 1088 00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:56,000 Speaker 2: League matches, and Milan's defensive metrics have also fallen off 1089 00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:57,719 Speaker 2: a cliff. So as much as Pool A six has 1090 00:52:57,719 --> 00:52:59,759 Speaker 2: been a nice story this year, it's been really encouraging. 1091 00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,680 Speaker 2: Inter is a class above and this is kind of 1092 00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:04,680 Speaker 2: it for Inter. I mean, the season's over for them, 1093 00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:07,600 Speaker 2: There's not a ton else to play for, so I 1094 00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:10,240 Speaker 2: think inter kind of gets up for this match closes 1095 00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:13,160 Speaker 2: out the title, which they can do with a win 1096 00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:17,480 Speaker 2: or a Yeah, win clinches the title for Inter, so 1097 00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:19,920 Speaker 2: this is it they can do it against their rivals. 1098 00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,720 Speaker 2: A draw would not quite clinch it, I mean essentially 1099 00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:27,680 Speaker 2: do though, but win would officially clinch the title. So 1100 00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,440 Speaker 2: I think you get Intero's best effort and I think 1101 00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,160 Speaker 2: they win this match, clinch the title and may get 1102 00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:36,600 Speaker 2: another scudetto good for them. No home field advantage also 1103 00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:38,879 Speaker 2: should be thrown in there. They're techically a road team, 1104 00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:44,200 Speaker 2: but like, okay, sure, same stadium and last thing you 1105 00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:45,719 Speaker 2: have something in the league on before we get into 1106 00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:46,800 Speaker 2: the parlay. 1107 00:53:47,000 --> 00:53:50,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple actually really important matches in the league 1108 00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,880 Speaker 1: gun this weekend. Monaco and Brest are facing off against 1109 00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:54,520 Speaker 1: each other. Breast has a game in hand, but they're 1110 00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:57,680 Speaker 1: only up by one point for the second place Champions 1111 00:53:57,719 --> 00:54:00,080 Speaker 1: League spot that doesn't have to go via the playoff, 1112 00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:04,520 Speaker 1: so that's very important there they have it, and Mets 1113 00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:07,680 Speaker 1: are doing a relegation six pointer. Those you have lejabre 1114 00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:10,239 Speaker 1: eight to one relegation ticket. We need Mets there. But 1115 00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,239 Speaker 1: I like Marseille. They're on the road and they're plus 1116 00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:17,560 Speaker 1: one thirty against to lose. You know, Marseille is about 1117 00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:21,200 Speaker 1: four points off of a European spot here and they yes, 1118 00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:26,040 Speaker 1: they are playing on Thursday at home against Benfica, but this, 1119 00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:29,560 Speaker 1: to his defense, is quite bad. If you've watched them 1120 00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:33,439 Speaker 1: throughout Europe when they played Benfica, or even in League 1121 00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:35,000 Speaker 1: N throughout most of the season when they've had to 1122 00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:37,960 Speaker 1: play good competition, they're really not that great. When they 1123 00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:39,759 Speaker 1: have to sit in a low defensive block and when 1124 00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,399 Speaker 1: the match gets stretched and they have to play more 1125 00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:43,800 Speaker 1: in transition, they have struggled. They're near the bottom and 1126 00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,520 Speaker 1: pretty much every single defensive metric. Marseille is a team 1127 00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:48,880 Speaker 1: that obviously has run very bad this season. They have 1128 00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:51,080 Speaker 1: a lot of great attackers who can hit you in transition. 1129 00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:53,920 Speaker 1: They've been effective at breaking down low blocks, and I 1130 00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:57,440 Speaker 1: think plus one thirty is just a two low of 1131 00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:59,120 Speaker 1: a price for a team that I know is playing 1132 00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:01,960 Speaker 1: on Thursday, and the market's kind of baking that in. 1133 00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:04,080 Speaker 1: But I don't think it's gone far enough. So I 1134 00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:05,440 Speaker 1: like Marsey plus one thirty. 1135 00:55:05,280 --> 00:55:08,440 Speaker 2: All right, underdog Parlay. Don't even know what happened last week, 1136 00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:10,120 Speaker 2: bro Breast the worst beat of the year. 1137 00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:13,839 Speaker 1: Ye Breast plus a half was the Yeah, worst feed 1138 00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:14,560 Speaker 1: of the year by far. 1139 00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:16,400 Speaker 2: They were up three to one and then gave up 1140 00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:17,880 Speaker 2: one hundred and seventh minute penalty. 1141 00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:19,560 Speaker 1: Seventeenth minute penalty? 1142 00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:20,720 Speaker 2: Was it? One seventeen? 1143 00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, excuse me? And seventh you're right now, you're seventh? Yeah? Right? 1144 00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:26,160 Speaker 2: That one will go down in the history books. I 1145 00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:28,120 Speaker 2: was at the Phills game, just like looking at my 1146 00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:32,440 Speaker 2: phone and laughing. Anyway, I'll start Forest plus two seventy. 1147 00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:34,840 Speaker 2: This numbers come down a little bit. Still my favorite 1148 00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:38,400 Speaker 2: dog on the board. I think Everton's continued struggles to 1149 00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:42,960 Speaker 2: create big chances have been a consistent problem. Now you're 1150 00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:45,680 Speaker 2: seeing the defense fall off a little bit. Attacks still 1151 00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:49,319 Speaker 2: not consistent. Forrest trending up, Everton trending down, I think 1152 00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:51,759 Speaker 2: is a high variance matchup. I like the Trees on 1153 00:55:51,800 --> 00:55:53,040 Speaker 2: the Road plus two seventy. 1154 00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,560 Speaker 1: I like darmstat plus five fifty. I mean, what better 1155 00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:59,640 Speaker 1: way to win this than backing a team that has 1156 00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:03,799 Speaker 1: one of match since October. This is a way overvalued 1157 00:56:03,840 --> 00:56:06,239 Speaker 1: Cologne team that is the second worst team in the 1158 00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:08,360 Speaker 1: Bundesliga by far. You know, if you look at the 1159 00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:11,920 Speaker 1: underlying metrics between for both these teams throughout the entire season, 1160 00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:14,760 Speaker 1: Coloonne is around of minus one next differential for ninety 1161 00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:17,920 Speaker 1: and darmstotted around minus one and a half. So ex 1162 00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:20,320 Speaker 1: give me one point one five. So the gap between 1163 00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:22,279 Speaker 1: them is not that large. And even when they played 1164 00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:25,080 Speaker 1: the previous time, Cologne won, but the x G gap 1165 00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,320 Speaker 1: wasn't really that much. I mean, they created one chance 1166 00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:28,879 Speaker 1: and that was about it. But it was pretty dead 1167 00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:32,520 Speaker 1: match for the first sixty minutes. And yes, Darmstadt's dead. 1168 00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:36,440 Speaker 1: They're gonna get relegated. But this is a crazy price 1169 00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:39,600 Speaker 1: considering how bad Colonne has been all season. Again, they've 1170 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:41,920 Speaker 1: won the XG battle in four matches all season, and 1171 00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:43,640 Speaker 1: two of them they were playing up a man for 1172 00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,759 Speaker 1: majority of the match. So Darmstadt plus by fifty, and 1173 00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,960 Speaker 1: we have given Michael Coventry City at plus four to 1174 00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:51,040 Speaker 1: fifty three. 1175 00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:53,479 Speaker 2: Leg parlay comes out to one hundred and thirty three 1176 00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:55,920 Speaker 2: to one. Running out of time, we're going to hit 1177 00:56:55,920 --> 00:56:57,520 Speaker 2: one this year, so maybe this is the one. 1178 00:56:57,560 --> 00:57:00,120 Speaker 1: Well, anyway, we still got the Erols, we still got Copam. 1179 00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:02,120 Speaker 1: We'll be all right, true, all. 1180 00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,799 Speaker 2: Right, best bets. I'll start Bournemouth team total over a 1181 00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:08,040 Speaker 2: half plus one oh five and full game over one 1182 00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:12,000 Speaker 2: and a half plus on forty five against aston Villa. 1183 00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:16,720 Speaker 2: Aston Villa's defense bottom five in every meaningful metric mixg 1184 00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:20,080 Speaker 2: allowed to big chances allowed. In the last three months, 1185 00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:22,520 Speaker 2: it's been a defense at steadily trended downward. They're in 1186 00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:26,040 Speaker 2: a tough spot given how many minutes their key players 1187 00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,400 Speaker 2: have to log to get through this europe of Conference League. 1188 00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:31,240 Speaker 2: They're on the road on Thursday in France as well, 1189 00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,720 Speaker 2: so then they come home. I think born Miss attack 1190 00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,680 Speaker 2: will find success in wide areas and then behind where 1191 00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:38,720 Speaker 2: they have been really good in transition this year. So 1192 00:57:39,000 --> 00:57:41,240 Speaker 2: I like the Cherries to score a couple of times 1193 00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:43,640 Speaker 2: and hopefully cash our bet. 1194 00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:47,640 Speaker 1: And I like Luton Brentford over three goals at minus 1195 00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:50,280 Speaker 1: one ten. Bad times for Luton Town right now, who 1196 00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:52,760 Speaker 1: are in the relegation zone. They need points to get 1197 00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:56,040 Speaker 1: out of it, and they only maybe at best, we'll 1198 00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:59,560 Speaker 1: have one center back available for this match, So that 1199 00:57:59,600 --> 00:58:01,880 Speaker 1: means that Rob Edwards is probably going to have to 1200 00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:05,640 Speaker 1: have his team play in a very aggressive approach out 1201 00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:07,480 Speaker 1: of possession, which is going to create a very back 1202 00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:09,520 Speaker 1: and forth type match. They play in a low block, 1203 00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:11,680 Speaker 1: they're just going to delay the inevitable. With the Brentford 1204 00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:14,200 Speaker 1: attack that has really improved now that in Buemo's healthy 1205 00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:17,240 Speaker 1: and I have Tayn's backs from his suspension, it's a 1206 00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:20,600 Speaker 1: Brentford attack that's really improved. They're really good in transition, 1207 00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,760 Speaker 1: so if this match gets going very back and forth, 1208 00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:24,360 Speaker 1: they're gonna have a lot of chances that they're end 1209 00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:27,560 Speaker 1: But at the same token, Brentford's been bad defending in transition. 1210 00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:30,000 Speaker 1: They've had really struggled with defending crosses and that's basically 1211 00:58:30,080 --> 00:58:33,320 Speaker 1: the only way that Lowtontown creates their chances when they're 1212 00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:36,200 Speaker 1: from open place. So projected three point eight goals for 1213 00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:38,120 Speaker 1: this match, so I have over three of minus one ten. 1214 00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:40,720 Speaker 2: All right, that will do it for this episode of 1215 00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:43,439 Speaker 2: Wonder Goal. Thanks to b J. Cunningham, Thanks to Noah, 1216 00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:47,280 Speaker 2: our producer. We will be back Monday morning in your feed, 1217 00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:49,400 Speaker 2: we've got six Premier League matches. I think we've got 1218 00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:53,360 Speaker 2: some Italian Cup semifinals. Maybe we'll get into those, maybe not. 1219 00:58:53,880 --> 00:58:56,440 Speaker 2: Either way, we will be back Monday. We're entering the Sprint, 1220 00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:59,200 Speaker 2: the final match weeks of the season. Can you believe 1221 00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:02,000 Speaker 2: that we are one month and two days until the 1222 00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:04,920 Speaker 2: final day of the Premier League season. It's been a 1223 00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:15,560 Speaker 2: fun ride and thank you for joining us. Action Network 1224 00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:19,720 Speaker 2: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you 1225 00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,920 Speaker 2: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty 1226 00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:25,200 Speaker 2: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler