1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,440 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action awesome. All right, here we go. 3 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 3: Throwing in Joe spect. 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 4: We're saying it's a catch touch till we. 5 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 5: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go 6 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 5: to win. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 4: That's incredible. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: Big banks, small banks. I like to make money. All right, 9 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabak. 10 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 3: If you want to pack and we are underway. 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 6: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by Fan Duel. 12 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 6: I am your host, Brendan Glasheen, joined by the usual suspects, 13 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 6: Brandon Anderson, Jill Gallant, Luke Swayin aka Vegas Refund. We've 14 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 6: got games coming up Saturday and Sunday, and we look 15 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 6: forward to going around three picks from each of the 16 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 6: guys this season. 17 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 3: The Best Bets Pod good bounce back. 18 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 6: Week in Week fourteen, five three and one after the 19 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 6: two and seven week thirteen, so we are sixty seven 20 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 6: fifty five and four for the year. You can find 21 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 6: the picks over in the Action Network app Action Network 22 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 6: NFL Picks. You'll have the podcast here as well as 23 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 6: the Sunday six pack No Buys. Those are over. Everyone's 24 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 6: playing underdogs at fifty four percent, unders at fifty six percent. 25 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 6: We've got three favorites of seven or more Bills, Chiefs, 26 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 6: and Eagles, and that remains the least profitable start for 27 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 6: touchdown favorites this year, hitting it just thirty eight percent 28 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 6: against the spread. These guys have not consulted one another 29 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 6: before the picks. I don't even know. So we just 30 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 6: go into this and we all have raw reactions looking 31 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 6: forward to it. There might be some overlap that happens, 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 6: but we'll see how it goes. Brandon Anderson usually starts 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 6: us off, so do so please pick one for week fifteen. 34 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 7: Well, Brandon, you know I wanted to go back to 35 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 7: Seattle Island here, but Thursday night, we're recording Thursday. By 36 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 7: the time you us in our island will already be 37 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 7: brimming again beautifully cashing our Green Dot tickets. So let's 38 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 7: go with the Steelers. We've been playing Steelers a lot lately. 39 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:14,119 Speaker 7: I'm gonna go back to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh plus three at Carolina. 40 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 7: I like the plus three. I like the money line too, 41 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 7: So here's the case. This line flipped on Sunday, so 42 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 7: Carolina was a two and a half point underdog and 43 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 7: then flipped to a two and a half point favorite, 44 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 7: and I feel like that just was an overreaction to 45 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 7: both teams here. Carolina got the big win. They beat 46 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 7: up on our Seattle Island aforementioned, but they basically just 47 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 7: ran the ball right down their throat. They out physicaled them, 48 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 7: and that is not a script that's going to work 49 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 7: against the steel Current. That's never a script that has 50 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 7: worked against the Steelers really my entire lifetime. I think 51 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 7: we're overreacting to the Panthers a little bit. Look, yeah, 52 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,920 Speaker 7: they're in the playoff hunt. Sure, they're in the junior 53 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 7: league playoff hunt. They're in the get in the hunt 54 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 7: for the lose the first round game in a terrible 55 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,679 Speaker 7: division hunt. The numbers say they haven't really gotten a 56 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 7: lot better, even with the Steve Wilks thing. The defense 57 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 7: pretty solid has been all year, but it starts out 58 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 7: well in the first quarter and gets progressively worse each quarter. 59 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 2: They're thirty first. 60 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 7: In DVA defensively in the second half. So a lot 61 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 7: to be patient here. It might take a bet, but 62 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 7: the Steelers are actually better. They're the team who's numbers 63 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 7: and profile has actually improved. We've done the whole TG 64 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 7: a lot dance six games with what they rank third 65 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 7: on defense, top five against the pass and the run. 66 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 7: I like the Steelers. It's a better team. I don't 67 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 7: mind on the road. We don't know yet who's playing quarterback. 68 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 7: Crossing my fingers, I don't really want Mason Rudolph. So 69 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 7: it is we get picked or Trubiskiell. Feel much better there, 70 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 7: but not really a raw raw Tomlin underdog spot here 71 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 7: doesn't quite fit the usual trends, but in that Tomlin 72 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 7: underdog spot after they lose a division game six and 73 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 7: zero as an underdog ATS and right up week five 74 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 7: forward after that, so it does fit that spot here, 75 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 7: and then the other trend I have mentioned Pittsburgh. 76 00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 2: After they play that. 77 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 7: Ravens game they beat Baltimore, they're only six and twelve ATS. 78 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 7: They ken of come out flat, but they lost last week. 79 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 7: If they lose to Baltimore, they are eleven and five 80 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 7: against the spread the following game. So I like them. 81 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 7: They come out hot here. I like them to get 82 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 7: the win. I can't make Sam Darnald a favorite, not 83 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 7: against the Steelers team that's pretty good. So I'll take Pittsburgh, 84 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,359 Speaker 7: and I'll play the money line plus one thirty as well, and. 85 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 6: That Seahawks defense is not very good, so to your 86 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 6: point might be an overreaction to how Darnald performed no 87 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 6: interceptions and he was scrambling around and looks. 88 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:41,600 Speaker 3: Sort of competent. 89 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:46,799 Speaker 6: Kenny Pickett was practicing earlier Thursday, limited with the concussion. 90 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 6: Deontay Johnson didn't practice. We'll keep an eye on Friarmooth. 91 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 6: He did not practice, but Pickett was out there, which 92 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 6: is good news. He was cleared to practice. He was 93 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,720 Speaker 6: out there in some fashion. Let's go to Joe Galant 94 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 6: your first pick. 95 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 5: Going to Saturday, Brendan, I'm going to be taking the 96 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 5: Bills minus seven versus a Dolphins. Pretty confident with this 97 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 5: one motivation spot for the Bills. They do need the 98 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 5: one seed in the af seed. They cannot go on 99 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 5: the road in another AFC title game. With a win 100 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 5: on Saturday, they could pretty much lock up the AFC East, 101 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,799 Speaker 5: get more ground for the one seed over the Chiefs. 102 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 5: And part of my fate of the Dolphins is mainly 103 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 5: how too attag of Ioloa performs on the road and 104 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 5: in cold weather. So he's played twice in Buffalo, he's 105 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 5: lost by thirty and twenty twenty lost by fifteen and 106 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 5: twenty twenty one, and he's a different quarterback on the road. 107 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 5: Part of what makes to Us successful is his accuracy 108 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 5: and completion percentage. So he's played thirty four career games, 109 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 5: sixteen on the road, sixty three percent completions on the road, 110 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 5: but it increases to sixty eight percent at home. That's 111 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 5: a huge drop off of five percent comparatively to home 112 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 5: to road. His last two road games, Niners and Chargers, 113 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 5: he threw sixty one passes, he only completed twenty eight 114 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 5: of them, three touchdowns that were all long bough I mean, 115 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 5: you could even say that that Trent Shirtfield touchdown against 116 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 5: the Niners was fluky. I'm not willing to say that 117 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,839 Speaker 5: the Tyreek Hill touchdowns were fluky. But two interceptions in 118 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 5: those games, and his career spread record I find reflects 119 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:15,840 Speaker 5: this twelve and four against the spread at home, six 120 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 5: nine to one against the spread in road games. I 121 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 5: don't think it's a coincidence that all five of his 122 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 5: interceptions this season have been in road games. Now, from 123 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 5: a cold weather standpoint, in the NFL, two has never 124 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 5: started a game in the temperatures in the thirties. It's 125 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 5: expected to be pretty cold in Buffalo on Saturday. He 126 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 5: started three games at just around fifty degrees and the 127 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 5: Dolphins are zero and three straight up and against the 128 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 5: spread in those games, and the average just around fourteen 129 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,039 Speaker 5: points per game. So give me the Bills to roll 130 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 5: the Dolphins and win comfortably on Saturday. 131 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 4: Okay. 132 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 6: And you got Mike McDaniel rock in the sweatshirt at 133 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 6: practice that he wishes it was colder while he has 134 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 6: sleeves on like interesting, he should be in short sleeves 135 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 6: if he's gonna wear a sweatshirt like that. And it 136 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 6: also feels like this Dolphin offense have they been figured out? 137 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 6: Did the Niners lay a blueprint going forward? Chargers seem 138 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 6: to follow that. We'll find out if Buffalo does the same. 139 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,239 Speaker 6: Let's go to Luke first pick for us. 140 00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: So my first one is gonna be Colts plus four 141 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: and a half at the Vikings on Saturday, which this 142 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: is gonna be a Colts team. That I mean, I 143 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: was like the that I think it was it last 144 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: Sunday night or Thursday when they got absolutely beat down 145 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: by the Cowboys where that. 146 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 3: Three zero in the fourth quarter. That was a few 147 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 3: Sundays ago. 148 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 4: Yep, Yeah, where that game there. 149 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: It was close until that fourth quarter which just went 150 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: totally off the rails. And this game feels early similar 151 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: to me to the Jets game two weeks ago against 152 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: the Vikings. I know, I think every expert you probably 153 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: hear across the media is it's like a broken record 154 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: bashing the Vikings. 155 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 4: Being the lucky team. 156 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: Sorry, Brandon, So I won't I won't even get into that, 157 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: even though it does have a reason. I think we've 158 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: we're at the point where the Vikings like luck factor 159 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: has leveled off where we're not getting numbers that are 160 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: outrageous to us anymore. 161 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 4: But like two weeks ago, which. 162 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: Is probably the like it was just like the worst 163 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: beat in terms of like experience ever that Jets game, 164 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: which the Jets had an elite they do have an 165 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: elite defense, and they were just missing a couple pieces, 166 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: specifically at. 167 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 4: Running back where they couldn't convert in the red zone. 168 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: Where this Colts defense, I don't want to say it's 169 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: the Jets defense, but is it. 170 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,559 Speaker 4: A very above average team where. 171 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: That defense is going to be the best unit in 172 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: this game against the Viking Vikings offense that I think 173 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 1: they can contain, where I trust Matt Ryan enough to 174 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: stay within this number. I think they cover, they probably win, 175 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: but a Saturday game four and a half is just 176 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: too much to may against a Colts defense that's great, 177 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 1: and a Vikings defense can make a Colts offense look 178 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: better than it actually is. 179 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 6: If you look at our Action Network luck rankings that 180 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 6: Sean Kerner and Nick Giffin put together, Vikings are the 181 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:13,199 Speaker 6: second luckiest team in football, and as Luke laid out, 182 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 6: they've got a minus one point differential through thirteen games. 183 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 6: But what jumps out is the Colts are the twenty 184 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 6: eighth luckiest team, which means they aren't very lucky. So 185 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 6: and also facing pressure you talked about the Jets defense, Matt. 186 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 3: Ryan may actually not be all that bad. 187 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,719 Speaker 6: Because the Vikings don't put too much pressure on the 188 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 6: quarterbattle saddle down. I mean, remember the days here doing 189 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 6: this podcast where Jill was giving out Matt Ryan to 190 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 6: throw an interception at plus money or those days. 191 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,839 Speaker 5: He's the second most profitable quarterback to throw interceptions this year, 192 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 5: behind Dak Prescott, but still regardless, he throws a lot 193 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 5: of interceptions. 194 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,839 Speaker 7: By the way, Matt Ryan after the bye week, as 195 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 7: he is here nine and five against the spread. Kirk 196 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 7: Cousins facing opponent coming off the bye week, when then 197 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 7: how extra time to prep for him with that good 198 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 7: defense to an eight against the spread. So I hate 199 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 7: to admit it, but I'm with you on Colts on 200 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 7: this one. I think it's the right. 201 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 3: Side, Jill. 202 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 6: It's all paving way for Matt Ryan to give us 203 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 6: another and it's on a Saturday, looking forward to it 204 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 6: to start the slate. 205 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 3: Let's go back to Brandon your second pick? Please? 206 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, I like the Bills pick. I like the 207 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 2: Colts pick. 208 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 7: Let's wind out our Saturday with one more pick in 209 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 7: the game. In the middle, I'm going to take the 210 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 7: Ravens plus three in Cleveland. Our rivalry game, right, these 211 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 7: teams hate each other, Ravens Brown's rivalry. There's no rivalry here. 212 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 7: The Ravens have won twenty four the last twenty nine. 213 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 7: They own this rivalry. This is like big brother little brother, 214 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 7: except little brother is like a four year old and 215 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 7: big brother is seventeen, and they're playing basketball and on 216 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 7: the court backyard like the Ravens own this matchup. And 217 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 7: I think that the line here is still trying too 218 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 7: hard to reflect quarterback perception that has not really played out. 219 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 7: I think we did this one on the red and 220 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 7: the line hasn't moved a lot because the quarterback on 221 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 7: certainey with Baltimore, but Deshaun Watson, we've talked more than 222 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 7: we really want to on this podcast about him. 223 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 2: This has not been good. 224 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 7: The Browns in eight quarters with Watson so far have 225 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 7: scored sixteen offensive points. Two points a quarter is not 226 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 7: going to get the job done, especially for an offense 227 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 7: that honestly was really good for the whole rest of 228 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 7: the season, right up until they put a new quarterback 229 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 7: into the mix, and they're not so good anymore. The 230 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 7: run game has faltered. He's not passing well. On the 231 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 7: other side, we took the hot Reid hoping maybe we'll 232 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 7: get Lamar Jackson here. That looks pretty unlikely at this point. 233 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 7: But the good news, thankfully, is Tyler Huntley, who was 234 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,840 Speaker 7: hurt Sunday. He's practicing. He looks good to go. I 235 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 7: did want to make sure we got Huntley in there. 236 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 7: I don't need any you know, Brett Huntley, the other 237 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 7: version of Hunley or Anthony Brown, whoever it is. But look, 238 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 7: Tiler Huntley is fine. He's played now in seven games 239 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 7: He's featured prominently in seven games. All seven games have 240 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 7: been within three points. Wellver plus three. That looks pretty 241 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 7: good for US here, and I think with Huntley in there, 242 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 7: you get the Harbor underdog script seventeen to seven to 243 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 7: one ats as a division underdog. Both teams are going 244 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 7: to run the ball. Here, it's Cleveland, it's December. Ravens 245 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 7: want to run. 246 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 4: JK. 247 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 7: Dobbin is back, the Browns want to run. The difference 248 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 7: here is who's stopping the run. Not the Browns. They 249 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,079 Speaker 7: don't stop the run all season. They're third to last 250 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 7: and run defense. The Ravens since training for Ocawn Smith 251 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 7: number one run defense and number four overall by DVA, 252 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 7: So I love the run defense for Baltimore just going 253 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 7: to be one of those ugly dog pound, slow, close, 254 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 7: low scoring run the ball. And if you got that 255 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 7: ugly defense, run the ball script, you always always want 256 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 7: the Ravens and John Harbaugh in that matchup against the 257 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 7: Browns here, Watson not a good favorite, Kevin Stefanski, not 258 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 7: a good division favorite, won seven against the spread. So 259 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 7: I'll take the Ravens. I like the plus three. 260 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,079 Speaker 6: Okay tickets coming in on Baltimore, but the money coming. 261 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 3: In on Cleveland minus three. 262 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: This game could have been like so actually where if 263 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: like Deshaun was playing like good and we have Lamar, 264 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: it would have been like awesome. 265 00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 3: But I think we're finding out. 266 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 6: And Brandon said this that the week he came back, 267 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 6: when you miss, when you you haven't played football in 268 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 6: seven hundred days, this feels like, Okay, get your feet wet, 269 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 6: get in my system. Kevin Stefanski will lead you along. 270 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 6: But this is a wait till next year kind of team. 271 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 6: If anything, if if they turn it around, I would 272 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 6: like to think they do. 273 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know that. I don't know that. 274 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 7: We have decided Deshaun Watson is a turble football player. 275 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 7: Now we have now learned that. In two weeks, we've 276 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 7: learned that it's really hard to just join a different system. 277 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 7: Jacoby Brissett is a very different quarterbacks, different skill set. 278 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 7: So the Browns that they're the team that they put 279 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 7: on the very last graphic in the corner of the 280 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 7: playoff graphics on your screen. They're not in the race 281 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 7: like I guess they could make a run, but this 282 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 7: is all about next year. But for now we can 283 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 7: still bet against that. 284 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 3: Looke do you disagree, No, not at all. 285 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: I just I Deshan has not met expectations, but I 286 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: don't think he played all that poorly on Sunday, fair 287 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: relative to perception. 288 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 6: Well, and just look at their next three after this week, Saints, 289 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 6: they can be a decent defense from week to week. 290 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 3: The Commanders on. 291 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 6: The road and the Steelers, there's no lay up there. 292 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 6: The Texans was the layup game in Cincinnati Baltimore. It's 293 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 6: not an easy stretch by the imagining, and even the 294 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 6: weeks before that, Bill's Tampa, those are all decent top 295 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 6: half of the league defenses. 296 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 7: Jill's tough. I feel really bad for Deshaun Watson. It 297 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 7: is tough outum there, I was not Jill go. 298 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 5: All right speaking of somebody who looks like they haven't 299 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 5: played in seven hundred days. I am going to use 300 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 5: this opportunity to fade the Buccaneers and Tom Brady. I'm 301 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 5: fading the goat. I apologize Brendon, I apologize Luke. I 302 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 5: know that he's probably had on a poster in your 303 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 5: wall somewhere, but I am taking Bengals minus three and 304 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 5: a half. Brady looks forty five, and now part of 305 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 5: it is you know the system. The lack of weapons 306 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 5: in the slot up the seam really noticeable this year. 307 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 5: And all you have to do is just look at 308 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 5: his pass attempts per game, which is just around his age. 309 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 5: He's actually averaging forty four point five passing attempts per game. 310 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 5: That's the most of his career, and the most previous 311 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 5: to that was last year when it was forty two 312 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 5: attempts per game. The difference is he threw for forty 313 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 5: two touchdown passes had you know, a Geo Bernard in 314 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 5: the slot, a Gronkowski up the seam. This season, he's 315 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 5: on pace for twenty five passing touchdowns. That'll be the 316 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 5: lowest since twenty thirteen. On the flip side, the Bucks 317 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 5: defense not really doing him many favors. In his first 318 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 5: two seasons with the Bucks, they were the gold standard 319 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 5: for defense versus the run, the ranked top five and 320 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 5: rush yards touchdowns allowed both seasons. This year, they're middle 321 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 5: of the pack in rushing yards. They've already allowed more 322 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 5: rushing touchdowns this year than they did all of last year. Now, 323 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 5: on the other side of the field, you've got the 324 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 5: Bengals playing arguably the best in the AFC, right now, 325 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 5: five straight wins and covers. They're starting actually to take. 326 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 3: Care of Joe Burrow. 327 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 5: He's not getting sacked as much during those five games. 328 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 5: He's only been sacked six times. The first eight games 329 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 5: of the year, he was twenty nine sacks, so made 330 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 5: a huge difference here. I just think this is a 331 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 5: bad matchup for the Bucks. I thought this line was 332 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 5: going to be around minus four. It may go to 333 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 5: minus four by kickoff. There are some trends as well 334 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 5: from our Evan Abrams that I think support this. Bucks 335 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 5: are now one in nine and one against the spread 336 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 5: in their last eleven games. They've faced the AFC four 337 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 5: times this year. They are zero to four straight up 338 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 5: and against the spread. Three of those games were against 339 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 5: the AFC North and they did not cover any of 340 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 5: those games. As for the Bengals, they are seven and 341 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 5: teen and three against the spread in their last twenty 342 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 5: games overall. To me, you got to take the Bengals here. 343 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 6: When was I think the game against Kansas City early 344 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 6: in the year Tampa was they might know they were 345 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 6: favorite in that game. Have they been a home dog 346 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 6: all season? I don't know that for sure, but playing 347 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 6: Kansas City that they were a short favorite in that game. 348 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 6: If I remember back now early October, this is their 349 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 6: first spot this year. Say it again, Yes they were, 350 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 6: they were Okay, so that's the first spot this year 351 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,360 Speaker 6: for Tampa and maybe since Brady's been there. 352 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 3: But there are those signs of encouragement from that team. 353 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 6: I don't blame you whatsoever, So you're not breaking my heart. 354 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 6: I won't speak for Luke, but I tend to agree, Luke, 355 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 6: go ahead, your second best bet, it's. 356 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,679 Speaker 1: My second one is gonna be. They put me through 357 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,479 Speaker 1: a lot of pain in the last two weeks on 358 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: both sides. I'm going to go with the Jets plus 359 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 1: one right now in Fandel hosting the lines, which we 360 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 1: have Jared Goff kind of going into a perfect storm 361 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: where he is totally the quarterback that. 362 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 4: He needs a couple of things. 363 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: He needs to be in a good environment like indoors 364 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 1: on turf, he needs an offensive line, and he needs 365 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,400 Speaker 1: to go against a coach that doesn't have the blueprint 366 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: against him, where like Jerry, Goff could be great if 367 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: he just avoids Belichick. So and speaking like the trend 368 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: here is small sample size. I'm not giving him like 369 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 1: the Belichick angle, but Sali's four and zero against Golf 370 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: in the four games that he's been defensive coordinator or 371 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 1: head coach against him defensive coordinator only, actually, I would think, 372 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: But and then he's going against a Jets defense that 373 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:35,080 Speaker 1: the defensive line brings pressure every single play. 374 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 4: Pressure is his achilles heel. 375 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,920 Speaker 1: He'd been behind the Lions offensive line that has been 376 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 1: making life really comfortable back there for him all season 377 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 1: in a weather atmosphere that is going to be sub 378 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 1: thirty five degrees and golf in games that are sub 379 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: thirty five degrees, shout out Casey Halpern. He has never 380 00:18:55,280 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 1: had a positive EPA per play. So Goff is on 381 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,680 Speaker 1: the road after being at home four games in a row, 382 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: in a cold game, against a coach that's beat him 383 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: four times, against a Jets defense that is the elite 384 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: in my opinion, where the Lions is just another peak 385 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 1: market expectation game. We're going to be fading them right now. 386 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: Where they were plus two and a half at the 387 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 1: Bears and they were plus three at the Giants. If 388 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: you're telling me that they should be favored at the Jets, like, 389 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 1: I just don't think that's true. I think the Jets 390 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 1: should honestly be minus two at the very least. So 391 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna basically take the Jets and a pick them. 392 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: And Quinn Williams is kind of key, but they do 393 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: have depth, so I'll just take them and basically pick them. 394 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 3: Okay, very good. 395 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 6: Jared Goff has been good against the number playing in 396 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 6: the one PM window. Evan Abrams has him at a 397 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 6: twenty six and thirteen. That's his according to his data, 398 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 6: covering six in a row this year. But the way 399 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,439 Speaker 6: they've played the last two weeks, folks are starting to 400 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 6: maybe go the other way. At least you're going to 401 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 6: go the other way. And not to mention, Mike White 402 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 6: did say today he will. 403 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 3: Play in this game. 404 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 6: Confirmed he was dealing with the rib injury this week, 405 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 6: but he will play for the Jets as the quarterback. 406 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: He confirmed. It's a big difference for what it is worth, 407 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 1: like the player confirming he's going to play. 408 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 3: That's fair. 409 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 6: It doesn't well as long as we don't have a 410 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 6: Bears situation like back when they played it was the Jets. 411 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 3: When they played the Jets, who the quarterback would be 412 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 3: for the Bears. That was a freaking shit show. 413 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: Which I'm assuming he's going to play because he said it. 414 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,120 Speaker 1: It's not like he had like he's got an MRI. 415 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: It's pantolerants, I think, so I believe him. 416 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 6: Do you like the Jets even more that Zach Wilson 417 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 6: got elevated to QB two? Does that make you feel better? 418 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 4: I mean, I can get into that right now. 419 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 3: Okay, I think he's gonna if he If Zach. 420 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: Wilson was going to start, this would be the game, 421 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 1: like they have an excuse to bench Mike White for 422 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: the injury against a defense that Mike wa Mike White's 423 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: gone against the Bears, Vikings and now the Lions, where 424 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: you have to think like Zach would put up. 425 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 4: Like okay numbers where sorry, you can cut this out. 426 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 6: Yeah sor right fine, Jets, it's my fault. I went 427 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,200 Speaker 6: there and I was just giving you a crap. Jets 428 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 6: opened as one point favorites and that line has flipped. 429 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 6: Is as Luke explained, final bet for me to the guys, 430 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 6: let's go to Brandon. 431 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, what a world where we're in December on the 432 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 7: home stretch and Jets Lions is the game of the week. 433 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 7: Like I'm generally excited to watch that coin flip game, 434 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 7: but I'm also worried that it's the sign of the 435 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,359 Speaker 7: apocalypse perhaps coming. I'm gonna go to a game that 436 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 7: I'm not excited to watch, that Jill and Brendan will 437 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 7: be watching. Just going into our next podcast on Sunday night, 438 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,360 Speaker 7: I'm gonna go to Commander's Giants, and I'm gonna take 439 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 7: the under here under forty and a half. 440 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 2: So I had this play two weeks ago. 441 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 7: It actually was my last cut before the pod, but 442 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 7: I head on the app and if you remember, the 443 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 7: forty and a half was a wild ride. We're at 444 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 7: thirty three points late Washington as a late drive gets 445 00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,880 Speaker 7: the touchdown twenty to twenty, We're going to overtime at 446 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 7: forty points. I'll do the math for you, and I 447 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 7: believe we had like five punts and then I missed 448 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,159 Speaker 7: seven hundred yard field goal to end the game in 449 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,880 Speaker 7: a tie and hit her under forty and a half 450 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 7: that we had all the way. So I only feel 451 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 7: like it's fair to roll it over and take the 452 00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 7: money from that forty and a half and just go 453 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 7: right back to the well two weeks later. That only 454 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 7: seems fair to the gambling gods. It's the same plan 455 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 7: and it's the same angle. Here's why Washington is number 456 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 7: six in pressure rate. The Giants are fifth worst in 457 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 7: pass protection, so that's going to make the passing game tough. 458 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 7: And then the same thing on the other side. The 459 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 7: Giants are number three in pressure rate defensively, and Washington's 460 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 7: also near the bottom and pass pass blocking, so that 461 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 7: neuters both passing games. We got a Washington game here 462 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 7: outdoors looking. 463 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 4: At I love that, neuters. That was a great adjective. 464 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 7: Sorry, we got Washington game here, So outdoors in December, 465 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 7: we're looking at in the thirties and windy, so probably 466 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 7: the weather there's gonna. 467 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 2: Be a factor. So basically, we got teams. 468 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 7: Are gonna run the ball a lot. We're gonna have 469 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 7: a fast script. Washington top five against the run on 470 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 7: the season, top five defense overall the last six weeks. 471 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,719 Speaker 7: Giants run game fading. I just don't see a lot 472 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 7: of points here. I don't see I see us having 473 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,919 Speaker 7: a nice wind down and a nice easy block of 474 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 7: time to prepare for a podcast on Sunday night. Washington 475 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 7: games are under forty and a half nine of the 476 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,959 Speaker 7: last eleven games here, and then if you look at 477 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 7: Week fourteen and forward Division games done a couple of 478 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 7: these trends. I mentioned the outdoors factor. Outdoors games hit 479 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 7: the under ninety one fifty six and four to the 480 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 7: under sixty two percent. And then if you've got a 481 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 7: home favorite of under seven fifty seven percent to the 482 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:58,600 Speaker 7: under in those late season division games, and I think 483 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 7: the line's gonna fall that it's been teetering. 484 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 2: There are some. 485 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 7: Forties out there already, so I'm gonna grab the forty 486 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 7: and a half. But another trend for you, if we 487 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 7: get down to forty primetime under is excluding Monday night, 488 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 7: which this will be the Sunday night game, if they 489 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 7: are a thirty six to forty total forty and twenty 490 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 7: to the under sixty seven percent rate there. So I 491 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 7: like the forty and a half, and if we dip 492 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 7: a little bit, the trends like it even more. I 493 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 7: think it's too many points for the Giants, but I 494 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 7: don't want to side on this. Just give me the under. 495 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: And I mean, I think the general consensus was the 496 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 1: public was pretty disappointed when they flexus game to Sunday Night. 497 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 1: Where like, in terms of all of the games this week, 498 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 1: like this is like this is the most important game 499 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: for each team by far, Like basically the loser is 500 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: out of the playoff picture, I want to say, or 501 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: a lot yeah, I think like two games back. Yeah, 502 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: where like the more important games, no matter what the 503 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 1: sport is, usually results in a more conservative game plan, 504 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,960 Speaker 1: which plays right into this under I'm a. 505 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:02,919 Speaker 2: Fan, I'm rooting for. 506 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,879 Speaker 7: I'm rooting for another twenty to twenty a tie, not 507 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,959 Speaker 7: just to hit or under, but get those ties out 508 00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 7: of the standings. They screw with all the tiebreakers. Get 509 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 7: a tie and a tie basically just means they each 510 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 7: got one win and one last. Get even us back 511 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 7: out there, and I think, I think it just skills 512 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 7: off both of them. 513 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 1: Has there ever been a tie in a divisional game 514 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: where they're playing a second time? 515 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,239 Speaker 4: I am not in my lifetime. I'd love to know. 516 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 6: I'm I'm a big fan of this because I'll be 517 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 6: out in Vegas for Patriots Raiders. When they flex that 518 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 6: game to one o'clock, I was like, great, well, one 519 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 6: o'clock local time. That is plenty of time to get 520 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 6: to the airport for the red eye flight home and 521 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 6: I can enjoy myself afterwards. 522 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 3: So I'm a fan of the time change. 523 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 6: As a matter of fact, unders have been popular for 524 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 6: the Commanders eight two and one of the under since 525 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,600 Speaker 6: Week three, and they are fifteen to five and one 526 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 6: to the under in their last twenty one home games. 527 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 6: These two teams since Week three have actually been the 528 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:00,359 Speaker 6: most profitable under teams. Brandon also, it's I think we 529 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 6: just talked about this, but also I would imagine you 530 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 6: trust Ron Rivera to scheme it up defensively off of 531 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 6: by and playing the same team again. 532 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean that's a weird spot. Yeah, where this 533 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:11,800 Speaker 7: is literally the last team that they played. The Giants 534 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 7: had to play the Eagles, and which is a very 535 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 7: unique team to play. It's a team that tires you 536 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:18,400 Speaker 7: out the way that they're running, and. 537 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,680 Speaker 3: They just got pasted like they butts. 538 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 2: Kicked the dead. 539 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 7: So yeah, it's it's an advantageous spot. I think that's 540 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 7: why the line is a little off of what we 541 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 7: might expect otherwise here, because basically Washington schemed all week 542 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 7: for this game and then had two more weeks to 543 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 7: take what they learned and do it again. So yeah, 544 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,640 Speaker 7: I think even if Washington, that's why I don't want 545 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 7: the side. I'll take the under because the Washington defense 546 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 7: is the best unit anyway, so that gives us a 547 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:44,120 Speaker 7: few outs that way. 548 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 3: Okay, good stuff, Jill. Last best bet for week fifteen. 549 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 5: Okay, under thirty six and a half for the Cardinals Broncos. Now, 550 00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 5: last week, Brendan, you viciously and I don't know, maybe 551 00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 5: unintentionally called me a coward. But I think you've come 552 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 5: around now that my Broncos. 553 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 2: That's sorry. 554 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 5: Mine have covered that plus nine and a half last week, 555 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 5: but my love and. 556 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 3: He covered against the Ravens plus eight and a half. 557 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 5: This is true, but my love though short lived because 558 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 5: this might be the worst game of the NFL season. 559 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 5: I'm running projections trying to find where the points are 560 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 5: coming up. I'm lining these teams up. I can't find it. 561 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 5: Like none of these neither of these teams are competent offensively. Now, 562 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,240 Speaker 5: the one thing that helps is that the Broncos top 563 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,639 Speaker 5: five and points allowed per game, do have a pretty 564 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 5: strong defense, but last in points score per game. Perfect 565 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 5: recipe for an under. All Broncos games this season have 566 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:47,159 Speaker 5: an average combide score of thirty three point two points 567 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 5: per game, and there are a few sixty point combined 568 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 5: scores sprinkled in there so you could imagine what the 569 00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,679 Speaker 5: other games look like. Now, Brett Ripion might be the 570 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 5: worst quarterback in the NFL. I would say the only 571 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 5: competition is the Trevors s. I mean Nathan Peterman poo 572 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 5: poop platter that they got in Chicago. But I think 573 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 5: Brett Ripian is right there now. The last time he 574 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 5: started a game was against the Jets. He threw forty 575 00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 5: five times. He couldn't even get over two hundred and 576 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 5: twenty passing yards, no passing touchdowns. The Broncos lose sixteen 577 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,680 Speaker 5: to nine. On the flip side, you've got the Arizona Cardinals. 578 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,160 Speaker 5: You've got Colt McCoy doesn't really inspire a lot of confidence. 579 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 5: He's thrown four passing touchdowns in his last eleven appearances 580 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 5: as a quarterback with the Cardinals. And there's a ton 581 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 5: of under trends as well. When the totals get set 582 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 5: this low, unders at thirty seven or below since twenty 583 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 5: sixteen are sixteen and eight to the under. Twelve of 584 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 5: the last fifteen totals at thirty seven or below have 585 00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 5: gone under by an average of six point one points 586 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 5: per game. And Denver is also part of this trend. 587 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 5: Two of their games were part of this trend, and 588 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 5: both of those games went under. Now, Cliff Kingsbury twenty 589 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 5: and ten to the under on the road, I'm not 590 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 5: going to weigh that and as much. This is more 591 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,719 Speaker 5: of a just take zero, Like if you could take 592 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,239 Speaker 5: zero points for the Denver Broncos, I would consider it. 593 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 5: And the Broncos kicker also has a thigh injury, might 594 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 5: not even be able to make kicks past fifty yards. 595 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 5: So give me the under thirty six and a half 596 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 5: for Broncos Cardinals this weekend. 597 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 6: You know, I wonder that the folks look at this 598 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 6: game and they're just like, there's too much talent. 599 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 3: There's still too much talent. 600 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 6: But the coaches screw this up so well, they're so 601 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 6: good at it. Look at Kingsbury Monday night, the fumble 602 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 6: by Hopkins, the mistakes they've made. 603 00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 3: Now, I thought they were. 604 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:33,880 Speaker 6: Going to run the ball pretty well on the Patriots. 605 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 6: But maybe it's just a kudos to their talent. Why 606 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 6: the number is as high as you think it is, 607 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 6: But the mistakes that these coaches make from a scheme standpoint, 608 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 6: it's glaring. 609 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 3: These are two teams we've been all over Brandon this year. 610 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. 611 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 7: By the way, Joe, I got great news for you. 612 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 7: I get an early Christmas present. Oh you like this 613 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,240 Speaker 7: Broncos under Just get ready. I slacked you this yesterday 614 00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 7: so our listeners can hear Broncos rams Christmas afternoon. I 615 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 7: was getting ready for the look Ahead. We'll get there 616 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 7: in a minute. The look ahead total on Broncos Rams 617 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,560 Speaker 7: is thirty five and a half right now. We have 618 00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 7: not had a total below thirty five since November twenty twelve, 619 00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 7: and we might be headed that way. Merry Christmas. 620 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: NFL fans like Army Navy. 621 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 5: Wow, I think at present and just take it from 622 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 5: under the tree and just throw it directly in the fire. 623 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 2: Like that's the type of present. 624 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:30,200 Speaker 6: That is That is insulting that that just that total, 625 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 6: But it makes sense. 626 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 3: Okay, look take us home last best bet. 627 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 1: All right, So my last one's going to be Jags 628 00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: plus four and a half hosting the Cowboys, which the 629 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: Cowboys are coming off three straight home games, and they 630 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 1: are their strength to schedule, not strong in terms of 631 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 1: like non divisional games. 632 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 4: They've only had two verset with a winning record so far. 633 00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 1: So like, you have a Cowboys team that I will 634 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,360 Speaker 1: say it might be a little bit of like a 635 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: bounce back spot for them coming off of that Texans 636 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 1: near loss, and then we might be getting the Jags 637 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:12,120 Speaker 1: at like high market expectations in terms of like perception. 638 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 1: But one thing that can offset that perception as America's 639 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: team no matter who they're playing, and that now they're 640 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: going into Jacksonville, which we've talked about on this podcast. 641 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: Weird things happen in Jacksonville. People swimming in the stands, 642 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 1: like just weird stuff. Evans going like, this Jags team 643 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,760 Speaker 1: is just surging. Trevor Lawrence is playing like the pick 644 00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,239 Speaker 1: that everyone thought he was going to be. He's been 645 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: great against pressure, He's made plays happen, and this Cowboys 646 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,800 Speaker 1: team just runs the ball when they shouldn't be running 647 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 1: the ball. And I do think this Jacks defense is 648 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,960 Speaker 1: good enough at least better than what like the teams 649 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 1: that they've been playing of recent runs defense has been 650 00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: providing and this jack defense I think can hold them 651 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 1: in check. And I think the Jags are very live 652 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 1: in the spot. So I'll take the Jacks plus four 653 00:31:58,640 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 1: and a half. 654 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 6: Okay, very good. Anyone have thoughts on that one before 655 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 6: we wrap? I mean, the money's coming in on Jacksonville. 656 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 6: They're getting a lot of the cash according to the 657 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,720 Speaker 6: Action app and just to smidge over fifty percent of 658 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 6: the bets are. 659 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 4: On the Jacks. 660 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, Trevor Lawrence is balling. He's hitting those laser throws 661 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 7: all over the field. By DVA, the Jaguars are number 662 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 7: five in the passing offense the last six weeks, so 663 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 7: they are they are. 664 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 2: Moving the ball. 665 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 7: Well, they're gonna have to convert in the red zone. 666 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,360 Speaker 7: That's one spot where they tend to struggle a little bet, 667 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 7: so you'll have to help you get some get them 668 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 7: into the end zone there rather than Trevor throwing it 669 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 7: to the other team. 670 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 1: I don't know what they did, Like Derek Conny was 671 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 1: absolutely stomping them in the first half, and then the 672 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,600 Speaker 1: second half, whatever adjustment they made, I completely shut. 673 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 4: Them down in treeball walk. 674 00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 1: I don't want to say the Titans of the Cowboys, 675 00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:48,760 Speaker 1: but they're both run first. They both have legit defense 676 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 1: that bring pressure. And the Jacks took care of business 677 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: last week and I think they can again, especially at home. 678 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,719 Speaker 1: But when the Jags are home, I always look who 679 00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 1: they're playing because I just it's just weird. 680 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 2: I just wish you were there, Luke, don't you? 681 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, this might be the first game, This might be 682 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 5: the first game with Dak coming back where he is 683 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 5: not at plus odds as well. To throw an interception 684 00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 5: and I'd still probably consider it. He's thrown an interception 685 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,840 Speaker 5: in every game this season, so uh, and he's the 686 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 5: most profitable quarterback right now to throw interceptions. It pains 687 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 5: my heart to even say it out loud, but yeah, 688 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 5: it almost seems like free money now to take Dak 689 00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:27,040 Speaker 5: interception props. 690 00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 4: How is it played? Nulle? Really just like kkewalk, We're 691 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 4: like the toughest. 692 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 1: Game have been divisional games, which they know those teams 693 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 1: better than anyone else. 694 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 4: The last three punts they had Texans coltson Giants. 695 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 6: And they covered in two of them, Giants back Toordom, 696 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 6: thanksgiving Indy thirty three to nothing in the fourth quarter. 697 00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,719 Speaker 6: That was a two point game through three, So that 698 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 6: was that was a close game. The score doesn't tell 699 00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 6: you how close that game was. And the Texans hung 700 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 6: in there. Davis Mills had one of his better games. 701 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,560 Speaker 6: So how convinced are you? How well they've played? And 702 00:33:58,760 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 6: now they got to go on the road for the 703 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 6: first time in a month, So I like it. 704 00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:03,400 Speaker 3: Good deal. 705 00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 6: Okay, before we go, let's wrap the show with a 706 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:11,879 Speaker 6: quick look at next week's lines. Week sixteen. We call 707 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,799 Speaker 6: this look ahead line to see if we like any 708 00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 6: numbers now before they adjust. After Sunday, Brandon, what do 709 00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,160 Speaker 6: you have for us? 710 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,880 Speaker 7: Well, it's Christmas weekend. We get most of the games 711 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,680 Speaker 7: on Christmas Seve on Saturday, but let's get you an 712 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 7: early Christmas Day present. 713 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the first. 714 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,200 Speaker 7: Game of the day on Sunday, go into Miami, and 715 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 7: I'm gonna fade the Dolphins. I'm gonna grab the Packers 716 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 7: plus four on the road in Miami. So look, the 717 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 7: Packers obviously have disappointed this season. We know that two big, 718 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 7: big flaws on the team. Well, look, we know Rogers 719 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,080 Speaker 7: hasn't been we wanted. The receivers haven't been wanted. The 720 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 7: big flaws is green Bay's run defense and they're special 721 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:54,560 Speaker 7: teams both terrible. Well look at Miami dead last and 722 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,400 Speaker 7: special teams. One of the few teams worse than green 723 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 7: Bay and Miami cannot and will run the football. What 724 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:04,759 Speaker 7: green Bay can do is defend the pass. They're six 725 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,360 Speaker 7: against the pass by Dvoa. And you know Jill talked 726 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 7: earlier about Miami is struggling. They are struggling to move 727 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,440 Speaker 7: the ball right now. I expect them to struggle in 728 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 7: the snow in Buffalo. I think they're going to continue 729 00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 7: to look bad there. Teams are jamming those speed receivers, 730 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,120 Speaker 7: they're covering up the middle of the field, and we're 731 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,719 Speaker 7: starting to see some copycat here. That's what Staley started 732 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 7: to do last week as well. So I think these 733 00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 7: teams are pretty evenly matched up. I think the Packers 734 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,879 Speaker 7: are actually maybe a little bit more balanced, more built 735 00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 7: for late season football. We're in Miami, so we don't 736 00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 7: really have to worry about any snow or winter weather 737 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,800 Speaker 7: effects here. And then plus four, I mean Aaron Rodgers 738 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 7: as over a field goal underdog fourteen and nine against 739 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 7: the spread when he's over three points underdog. But more recently, 740 00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,600 Speaker 7: Rodgers has covered eight of the last nine games when 741 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 7: he's over a three point underdog. He won seven of 742 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 7: those games outright, So this is a great spot for him. 743 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,480 Speaker 7: Where again, the points, I'm not sure it's going to 744 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,040 Speaker 7: be about four If you wait around Matt Lafleur, weolven 745 00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,360 Speaker 7: to four against the spread as an underdog nine to 746 00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:13,720 Speaker 7: one ats when it's over three point underdog spot and Miami, 747 00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 7: even when they do win games, they're not really blowing 748 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,319 Speaker 7: teams out. Usually four of their eight wins did not 749 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,520 Speaker 7: cover this line, So we could even just lose by 750 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 7: a field goal still get the cover here, hackers. Monday 751 00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 7: night this week home against the Rams, that's probably a blowout. 752 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:30,959 Speaker 7: We're gonna be like. 753 00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 4: Hey, green Bay playoff push? 754 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:34,320 Speaker 2: Are they around? 755 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:35,200 Speaker 3: They gotta win out? 756 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,359 Speaker 2: Yeah? But they do. 757 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,640 Speaker 7: And a little spoiler here my Friday futures call them 758 00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,960 Speaker 7: this week, I probably will be writing about Miami to 759 00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,800 Speaker 7: miss the playoffs, and I hate to do it. Green 760 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,640 Speaker 7: Bay to make the playoffs. Well, if that's going to 761 00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,160 Speaker 7: happen for either of them or both, certainly I need 762 00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,760 Speaker 7: the game to go one direction on this one Packers 763 00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:56,839 Speaker 7: plus four. I don't think that it will be on 764 00:36:57,000 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 7: that side of the key number by the end of 765 00:36:58,600 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 7: the weekend. 766 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:02,400 Speaker 6: On the same side as Jill he gave out minus 767 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 6: Bills minus seven. If you think Miami doesn't handle their business, 768 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 6: that's that's a great call, and that this is just 769 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,880 Speaker 6: I know it's not quite the NBA on Christmas but 770 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,520 Speaker 6: is Aaron Rodgers not going to play on Christmas Day? 771 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:13,920 Speaker 3: Like that? 772 00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:15,920 Speaker 6: Just because I was only going to bring up what 773 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:17,480 Speaker 6: if Jordan Love was inserted? 774 00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 3: But I don't know. 775 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 6: Big spot standalone game? Not quite a standalone game. Well, 776 00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:22,360 Speaker 6: it would be the only game going on, so I 777 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 6: guess it is a standalone game. Well, that's definitely a 778 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:25,719 Speaker 6: Christmas Day. 779 00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. 780 00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 7: I liked the spot, but I was like, man, I 781 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,759 Speaker 7: would also My last cut for the pod today was 782 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 7: I looked at taking the Packers minus six and a 783 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,640 Speaker 7: half Monday against the Rams. I like that spot a lot, 784 00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,000 Speaker 7: but I was like, man, if only I knew green 785 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,719 Speaker 7: Bay actually cared, i'd like it better. Well, here's the 786 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,279 Speaker 7: thing to watch. I talked about Seattle Island. If the 787 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,160 Speaker 7: Seahawks lose. By the time you listen to this, the 788 00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,759 Speaker 7: NFC playoff picture really opens up. And I looked ahead 789 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 7: all the matchups. If Seattle loses and green Bay wins out, 790 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 7: we got a Week eighteen green Bay Detroit matchup that 791 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,080 Speaker 7: I think has a pretty good chance of effectively being 792 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 7: a play in game. If Seattle loses, green Bay will 793 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,279 Speaker 7: have every motivation to beat up on the Rams and 794 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,760 Speaker 7: then go to Miami and keep the wins going because 795 00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,200 Speaker 7: you know, Aaron Rodgers is all going to believe that 796 00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:13,160 Speaker 7: he has a chance of the playoffs, so I think 797 00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,359 Speaker 7: they will be motivated and I expect him to play here. 798 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:18,279 Speaker 5: He doesn't fear death anymore either. 799 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:20,000 Speaker 8: Ah. 800 00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,759 Speaker 6: Yes, that's a great way to wrap up. Well, we 801 00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:26,040 Speaker 6: love the holiday version. Next week on Thursday, December twenty second. 802 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:27,879 Speaker 6: We'll record then and have it out a few days 803 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:28,480 Speaker 6: before Christmas. 804 00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:29,640 Speaker 3: Let's recap the picks. 805 00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,520 Speaker 6: Then we'll get the heck out of here. Brandon is 806 00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 6: on Pittsburgh plus three. 807 00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:34,800 Speaker 3: This is for week fifteen. 808 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 6: Everybody Pittsburgh plus three, Baltimore plus three, and he's on 809 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,360 Speaker 6: the Giants and Commanders under forty and. 810 00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 3: A half Sunday Night. Jill likes the Bills Saturday minus seven. 811 00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,719 Speaker 6: Also on the Bengals minus three and a half at 812 00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 6: Tampa and Denver Arizona under thirty six and a half. 813 00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:54,680 Speaker 6: I have to chuckle at numbers just so low, but 814 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,759 Speaker 6: it's not quite Christmas Day low. And then Luke is 815 00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,719 Speaker 6: on Colts plus four and a half, Jets plus one 816 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 6: hosting the Lions and Jaguars home Dogs against the Dallas 817 00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,120 Speaker 6: Cowboys plus four and a half. That'll do it here 818 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 6: in the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week fifteen 819 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 6: Best Bets episode. This podcast, of course, sponsored by Fan 820 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:18,160 Speaker 6: Duel thanks to Brandon Anderson, Luke Swain, Joe Galot, Brendy Glasheen. 821 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,840 Speaker 6: See you folks later. We have the recap coming Monday 822 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 6: from Brandon and Jill. I'm going to Vegas later today's 823 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:25,640 Speaker 6: I can't wait to go in and put these picks 824 00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,719 Speaker 6: in and watch us crush it. Meaning to you guys, 825 00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,040 Speaker 6: I say us when we do well, that's it, fellas. 826 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:32,680 Speaker 6: Thanks so much, thanks to everyone to listen. 827 00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:47,800 Speaker 8: Then we'll catch you next week. 828 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,600 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. 829 00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:55,960 Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 830 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,759 Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 831 00:39:58,840 --> 00:39:59,640 Speaker 4: hundred gambler