1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,760 Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Robert Evans here and welcome to It could 2 00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: happen here. You know, when we started the show, when 3 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: I did the first season of it, you know, the 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,639 Speaker 1: one about all the Civil War stuff back in twenty nineteen, 5 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: this was basically a place for me to write long 6 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: essays explaining my vision of the future and the present. Uh, 7 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: And people seem to like that a lot. We did 8 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: a little bit of that at the start of this 9 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 1: new Eternal daily season of the show. Um, but obviously 10 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: over the last year or so, it's it's morphed into 11 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: something very different and something wonderful and successful, and it's 12 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: brought a lot of new voices, or at least voices 13 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: people maybe hadn't heard from as much out in front 14 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: of the audience, and I've been really happy about that. 15 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: But what I also haven't been doing is writing any 16 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: more essays about the world and how fucked up shit is, 17 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: because you know, I've been managing a bunch of stuff 18 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: and there's been a lot of work to do. But 19 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: I like doing that stuff, and I think you people 20 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 1: like it, So I'm gonna try to do more of that. 21 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: And I wanted to kind of start by talking a 22 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: little bit about Silicon Valley, and I'm going to say 23 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: something at the start of this essay that a lot 24 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: of people are probably instinctively going to want to disagree with, 25 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: which is that Silicon Valley and the tech industry have 26 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: been gigantic failures by every metric that matters. They have 27 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 1: made life comprehensively worse for humanity, and there is no 28 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: real fact based counter argument to that statement. This is 29 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: a hard pill for people to swallow. I'm sure a 30 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: lot of folks are frustrated in me for saying it 31 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 1: right now, and they're thinking of counter arguments. Most people 32 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,639 Speaker 1: today are critical of the tech industry, obviously, particularly major 33 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: social media companies, but they still tend to acknowledge the 34 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: tremendous wealth created by Silicon Valley, as if there's some 35 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: sort of inherent value to that Behind a number on 36 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 1: a spreadsheet. Collectively, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, and Google, the 37 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: so called Big five had a seven point I have 38 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: trillion dollar market cap in every person listening to this 39 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: keeps a device in their pocket made by or using 40 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: the software of one or more of these companies, And 41 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: so when people want to make the counter argument to 42 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: what I just said, they'll tend to point out some 43 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: version of this. Uh yeah, companies like Facebook have done 44 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: bad things, but the Internet still a tool for good. 45 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 1: It connects people, YadA, YadA, YadA. Smartphones empower us. You know. 46 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: There's all these positive things about the internet, to which 47 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 1: I will say, present me with your fucking evidence that 48 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: that has mattered for people really in terms that actually 49 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: inaggregate improve their lives. I will show you my arguments 50 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: to the contrary. In the period of time from Harry 51 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 1: Truman's election to the end of the Nixon administration, American 52 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,680 Speaker 1: productivity on a per capita basis increased at a faster 53 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: rate than it did at any other point in history. 54 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: But then something happened. From nineteen seventy three to two 55 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: thousand and thirteen, income growth was eight percent slower than 56 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: it had been in the previous three decades. If productivity 57 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: had continued to grow with the same rate from nineteen 58 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: seventy three to two thousand thirteen as it did from 59 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: nineteen forty six to nineteen seventy three, the economy in 60 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: two thousand thirteen would have been sixty percent larger than 61 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: it actually was. Now, I'm gonna guess a decent number 62 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,519 Speaker 1: of the people listening to this grew up watching the Jetsons. 63 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 1: I know I didn't. For the most part, it was 64 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: a silly, pretty harmless animated show, but at the center 65 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: of it was a dream about the future that seems 66 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: unfathomable in light of current events. George Jetson, who was 67 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 1: in the show a pretty normal working class guy, worked 68 00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: three hours a day for three days a week. One 69 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: of the running jokes in the show is that he 70 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: considered himself overworked despite this pretty idyllic schedule. Now, this 71 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: was never particularly a focus of the show. It was 72 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: just kind of something that was mentioned from time to time. 73 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 1: And that's because the idea that a work week might 74 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: just be nine hours in the future wasn't a joke. 75 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 1: This was the direction of futurists in the nineteen sixties, 76 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 1: looking at that surgeon productivity I just mentioned, and all 77 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: of the middle class wealth that had been created from 78 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: the forties through the early exties. This is the direction 79 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: they saw us heading in around a decade ago, in 80 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: a period that was still significantly more optimistic than our 81 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: current age. The Atlantics Alexis Madrigal, when on a reading 82 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: spree of some early twentieth century futurist novels. His conclusion 83 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: was this quote. Technological optimists sold the world on automation 84 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: by telling people it would create unimaginable amounts of leisure 85 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: for them. The big question for the workers of the 86 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: twenty first century would be how to spend their copious 87 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: amounts of free time. Now, the future we've actually gotten 88 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 1: has given us the opposite of this dream to try 89 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 1: and cover up the rank and rampant ways modern technology 90 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: has failed humanity. Think tanks funded by venture capitalists and 91 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: tech gurus produce an endless stream of identical futurist thinker 92 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: types who write columns about how the world is actually 93 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: better today than it's ever been. A good example of 94 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: this would be this June column by Rob Askar titled 95 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: the World's getting better, Here's why your brain can't believe it. 96 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,200 Speaker 1: It opens with this paragraph, Life has improved for most 97 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: people around the world over the past generation, temporary pandemics aside. 98 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: The rub is that you can't get anyone to believe 99 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: the good news, and the result is a toxic political 100 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: environment and the potential collapse of democratic norms if too 101 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: few people feel that a stressed system is worth saving. 102 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,679 Speaker 1: Now I might point out, for example, that if people 103 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: don't actually feel like the system is good, perhaps it's 104 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: not really working well. There's a number of counter arguments 105 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: you can make to this. Now, two years later, this 106 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: again was written in June, we've got a massive war 107 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: in Europe. People are worried about nuclear warfare as a 108 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: result of that. Again, we've got a degradation of democracy 109 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,720 Speaker 1: worldwide that's continued to pace from where it was in 110 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: We've got soaring inequality, we've got inflation the likes of 111 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: which a lot of people alive have never seen, myself 112 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 1: included prior to this point. And we still have a pandemic. 113 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,280 Speaker 1: So it's clear that Rob is at least not as 114 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: smart as he thinks he is, which is what I 115 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: would say about everyone who makes versions of the same 116 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 1: claim that he was making. Now, this doesn't mean I'm 117 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: saying that life is worse now than it was at 118 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 1: some imagined pre lapse arian version of the past. I 119 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: actually think that's kind of a useless way to think 120 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: about the past. In the future, there's different things people 121 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 1: would have preferred. There's things that are objectively better, there's 122 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: things that are objectively indebatably worse. You know, that's hard 123 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: to make those kind of claims about history, especially when 124 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: they often rely on saying, well, X amount of more 125 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: people have been pulled out of poverty, and the question 126 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: to that as well, I don't know, before colonization of Africa, 127 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 1: would you say all of those people in what became 128 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: the colonized parts of Africa were in poverty or were 129 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 1: they simply not part of a system that measures poverty 130 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: and anyway, whatever. We can go on and on about that. 131 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 1: My point is that the metrics these people used to 132 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: claim the success of our current system to talk about 133 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,479 Speaker 1: how wonderful things are today are constantly shifting, and they're 134 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,239 Speaker 1: widely arbitrary. The same year Rob wrote his stupid column, 135 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: an in O r C studies showed that Americans self 136 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: reported being happy at the lowest levels in fifty years. 137 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:00,159 Speaker 1: You can quote jupe statistics about wealth or acts as 138 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: to luxury goods all you want, but the modern world 139 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 1: and the post two thousand eight financial crash economy, all 140 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 1: of which was built in the shade of the tech industry, 141 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: is making people miserable now. Happiness is obviously not a 142 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: perfect measure of progress either. Self reporting is always dicey, 143 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: but things like the consumer price index in per capita income, 144 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: which are often used by folks on the optimist side, 145 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 1: are also juked and jiggered to hell and back. So 146 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: to provide a bit more of an international scale, I'm 147 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: going to quote from the Berkeley University's Greater Good magazine quote. 148 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: Released annually on the International Day of Happiness, the World 149 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: Happiness Report ranks countries based on their life satisfaction and 150 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: the Gallop World Poll. Residents rate how satisfied they are 151 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 1: with their lives in the scale of zero to ten, 152 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: from the worst possible life to the best possible life. 153 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: This year's report also analyzes how global happiness has changed 154 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: over time, based on data stretching back to two thousand five. 155 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: One trend is very clear. Negative feelings, worries, sadness, and 156 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: anger have been rising around the world, up by from 157 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 1: two thousand ten to two thousand eighteen. The others also 158 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: found troubling trends, and happiness in equality, which is the 159 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: psychological parallel to income inequality, how much individuals in society 160 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: differ and how satisfied they are with life. Since two 161 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: thousand seven, happiness inequality has been rising within countries, meaning 162 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: that the gap between the unhappy and the happy has 163 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: been getting wider. This trend is particularly strong in Latin America, 164 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: Asia and Sub Saharan Africa. And this is kind of 165 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: getting it. I think, what is an incredibly important point, 166 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: for one thing, if you want to look at how 167 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: people have self reported their unhappiness rising. This massive recent 168 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: surge and unhappiness occurs almost at exactly the period of 169 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: time that the smartphone takes off and becomes ubiquitous. And 170 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: the smartphone is such a bafflingly useful device. I would 171 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 1: never want to give mine up as a thing that 172 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: I had access to. And the Internet is incredibly powerful tool. 173 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to give the Internet up either. But 174 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: the usefulness and the the undoubtable brilliance behind these products 175 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 1: makes it seem inconceivable to argue that they haven't made 176 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 1: us better at accomplishing the things that matter to us. 177 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: But the evidence on this is pretty clear. I want 178 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: to quote now from a write up in The Atlantic. 179 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: No matter how aggressively you torture the numbers, the computer 180 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: age has coincided with a decline in the rate of 181 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: economic growth. When Chad Civerson, an economist, at the University 182 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: of Chicago's Business School looked at the question of missing growth. 183 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 1: He found that the productivity slowdown has reduced GDP by 184 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: two points seven trillion dollars since two thousand four. Americans 185 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: may love their smartphones, but all those free apps aren't 186 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: worth trillions of dollars. The physical world of the city, 187 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,359 Speaker 1: the glow of electric powered lights, the rumble of automobiles, 188 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: the roar of airplanes overhead and subways below is a 189 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: product of late nineteenth century In early twentieth century invention, 190 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 1: the physical environment feels depressingly finished. The bulk of innovation 191 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 1: has been shunted into the invisible realm of bites and code. 192 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: All of that code, technology advocates argue has increased human 193 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 1: ingenuity by allowing individuals to tinker, talk, and trade with 194 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 1: unprecedented ease. This certainly feels true. Who could spute the 195 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 1: fact that it's easier than ever to record music, market 196 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: a video game, or published an essay. But by most measures, 197 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: individual innovation is in decline. In two thousand fifteen, Americans 198 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: were far less likely to start a company than they 199 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: were in the nineteen eighties. According to the economist Tyler Cohen, 200 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: the spread of broadband technology has corresponded with a drop 201 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: off an entrepreneurial activity in almost every city and in 202 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 1: almost every industry. Now you might think from all this 203 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: that I'm left ahead into some sort of techno dum 204 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: er anti primitives rant here. I'm not. Perhaps I should, 205 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,600 Speaker 1: but I'm not. I am a person who loves technology. 206 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: I got my start as a journalist as a tech journalist. 207 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: I've joyously traveled the world for years visiting conventions looking 208 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 1: at new gadgets, and a lot of this was in 209 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: that pretty wondrous period if you're a gadget nerd from 210 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 1: two thousand eight to two thousand eleven, where there were 211 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: just these amazing, new, weird sci fi gadgets dropping every 212 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: single week, stuff that you'd grown up watching, and like 213 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: Star Trek, the next generation suddenly getting mailed to your 214 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: door for you to test out. I tested hundreds of 215 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: tablets and smart gadgets in that time frame, and there's 216 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: some really great products that came out from that period. 217 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 1: Bluetooth speakers are wonderful. A lot of people, including me, 218 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 1: use them happily on a daily basis, But when it 219 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 1: comes to legitimately life changing applications of technology that's come 220 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: to us in the last fifteen years or so. I 221 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: can really only think of three things. Number one is 222 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: the ability to navigate by GPS basically everywhere. Number two 223 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: is the ability to be in constant contact with people 224 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: around the world. And number three is the ability to 225 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 1: store a shipload of media on a portable device. So 226 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: I'm not anti technology. Nor am I saying that big 227 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: tech doesn't make things that are cool or useful. Nor 228 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: am I saying we should get rid of this stuff. 229 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: The point I'm making is that viewed at thirty thou feet, 230 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: the tech industry has produced very little of quantifiable value 231 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 1: to the human race, and it has caused unfathomable harm 232 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: at the same time. Now, in my opinion, this has nothing, 233 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: or at least fairly little to do with how the 234 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: technology inherently works, and instead has everything to do with 235 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:12,199 Speaker 1: the ideology behind the people who developed and who continue 236 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: to marshal that technology. In nineteen ninety five, two of 237 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: the smartest guys in the twentieth century by my estimation, 238 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: Richard Barbrook and Andy Cameron, wrote an essay about the 239 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: ideology that animated the men who had come to dominate 240 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: the twenty first century tech industry. They titled their essay 241 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: the Californian Ideology, and I think it still counts as 242 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: one of the three or four most incisive accurate essays 243 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 1: of that century. The gist of the idea was that 244 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: as the first wave of the digital boom started to 245 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: hit in the mid nineteen nineties, the thinkers behind it 246 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 1: were fueled by a mix of left wing by a 247 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 1: mix of left wing egalitarian, often anti status beliefs that 248 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: got wedded to right wing free market fundamentalist libertarian ideology 249 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 1: and created this deeply toxic way of thinking about the future. 250 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: You can see this in the story of guys like 251 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: Steve Wozniak, the inventor of the personal computer, who was 252 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: also a former phone freaker. He committed federal crimes as 253 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 1: a kid, hacking the phone system primarily because fuck the man. 254 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: But then when he's a young man, the waws hooks 255 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: up with a guy named Steve Jobs, and Jobs is 256 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 1: a brilliant but heartless con man who cares about nothing 257 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 1: but market dominance. Jobs recognizes the naive brilliance of Steve Wozniak, 258 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: and he turns it into an engine for wealth creation. 259 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: At one point, he steals money that Wosniak was owed 260 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,559 Speaker 1: for a project that they took on together, money Wosniac 261 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: probably would have just given him if he'd asked, and 262 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: he used it secretly to fund their business, which became Apple. 263 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 1: In their essay, Cameron and Barbara, who are much better 264 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: writers than I, described the Californian ideology this way. The 265 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: Californian ideology is a mix of cybernetics, free market economics, 266 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 1: and counterculture libertarianism, and is promuligated by magazines such as 267 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 1: Wired and Mondo two thousand and preached in the books 268 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: of Stuart Brand, Kevin Kelly, and others. The New Faith 269 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: has been embraced by computer nerds, slacker students, thirty something 270 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: cap the lists, hip academics, futurist bureaucrats, and even by 271 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: the President of the USA himself. Now, the tech industry 272 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 1: as we know it got its start courtesy of government money. 273 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: Everyone knows that the first version of the Internet was 274 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: developed as part of a Defense Department project, but the 275 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: entire computer industry, all of the coders and engineers who 276 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: would form the first generation of selincom Valley profit engines. 277 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 1: All these guys got their start working for or as 278 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: defense contractors. When the US pulled out of Vietnam, thousands 279 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: of these people were left out of jobs and they 280 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: were forced to move into the private sector. Everything worthwhile 281 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: that's come out of big tech has involved a titanic 282 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: amount of public funding, one way or the other. And 283 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna quote from that essay again. Almost every major 284 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: technological advance of the last two hundred years has taken 285 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: place with the aid of large amounts of public money 286 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: and under a good deal of government influence. The technologies 287 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: of the computer in the net were invented with the 288 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: aid of massive state subsidies. For example, the first difference 289 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: Engine project received a British government grant of five hundred 290 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 1: and seventeen thousand, four hundred and seven d pounds a 291 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: small fortune in eighteen thirty four. From Colossus to ed VAC, 292 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: from flight simulators to virtual reality, the development of computing 293 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: has depended at key moments on public research handouts or 294 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: fat contracts with public agencies. The IBM Corporation built the 295 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: first programmable digital computer only after it was requested to 296 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: do so by the U. S Defense Department during the 297 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 1: Korean War. The result of a lack of state intervention 298 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: meant that Nazi Germany lost the opportunity to build the 299 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: first electronic computer in the late thirties when the Wehrmacht 300 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: refused to fund Conrad Zooz, who had pioneered the use 301 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 1: of binary code, stored programs, and electronic logic gates. One 302 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: of the weirdest things about the Californian ideology is that 303 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,479 Speaker 1: the West Coast itself was a product of massive state intervention. 304 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: Government dollars were used to build the irrigation systems, highway schools, universities, 305 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: and other infrastructural projects which make the good life possible. 306 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: On top of these public subsidies, the West Coast high 307 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: tech industrial complex has been feasting off the fattest pork 308 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,800 Speaker 1: barrel in history. For decades, the US government has poured 309 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: billions of tax dollars in to buying planes, missiles, electronics, 310 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: and nuclear bombs from Californian companies. Americans have always had 311 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: state planning, but they prefer to call it the defense budget. 312 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: Now this state of affairs is more or less unchanged today. 313 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: Elon Musk is probably the most celebrated modern tech visionary. 314 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: Miss Sundry companies have taken nearly five billion dollars in 315 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 1: public funding, subsidies, and government support since two thousand fifteen. 316 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: All of these libertarian visionaries who push in their political 317 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: lives for a world of lossyfair economics and corporate sovereignty, 318 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: only produce value with the help of taxpayer dollars. Period. 319 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 1: The irrational exuberance of public financing and the narcissism to 320 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: ignore its role in innovation has given us a generation 321 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 1: of tech industry overlords who seem bound and determined to 322 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: destroy their own creations. Steve Jobs represented the most successful 323 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: and probably the most intelligent manifestation of the Californian ideology. 324 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: Every tech industry ghoul currently boiling away fortunes for the 325 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: sake of their ego. I'm thinking of Zuckerberg and Musk 326 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:14,440 Speaker 1: most prominently right now, is trying to be him. Steve's 327 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 1: skill was being able to perfectly inhabit the form of 328 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 1: a visionary, and he was so good at doing this 329 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: that he convinced this generation they could follow in his footsteps. 330 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: But Steve Jobs was only ever playing at being a creator, 331 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 1: at being an inventor. His skill was not in making things. 332 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: He had other people to do the making Steve was 333 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: an exceptional confidence man, and like all good confidence men, 334 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: he was able to make money because he understood on 335 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: a deep level what other human beings wanted. This skill 336 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,719 Speaker 1: allowed him to lock Apple into spending hundreds of millions 337 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:49,600 Speaker 1: of dollars on R and D for what would become 338 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: the first proper smartphone, and for a while he was 339 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 1: just having them toss that money into an apparent chasm, 340 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: repeatedly turning back iterations of the product that weren't quite right, 341 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 1: on the strength of his leaf that when they got 342 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 1: it right, it would be worth it. In the year since, 343 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,399 Speaker 1: we've seen many wanna be Steves try to follow in 344 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: his footsteps, igniting tens of billions of dollars of venture 345 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: capital for absolutely nothing. One of the best examples would 346 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: be Uber. They lost eight point five billion dollars in 347 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen, six point eight billion dollars. Once upon 348 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: a time, the understanding, the jobs and vision of what 349 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: Uber could be was that all of this ignited VC 350 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: cash would be worthwhile because eventually the company would succeed 351 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 1: in replacing human drivers with autonomous cars, cutting out the 352 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: primary cost in the entire professional driving industry, and making 353 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: the potential for a shipload of profit, but after investing 354 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: more than a billion dollars in self driving cars, Uber 355 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: sold their entire autonomous vehicle division off at a loss. 356 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 1: All of that expense had resulted in self driving cars 357 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: that averaged one half mile travel per accident. Despite this, 358 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,959 Speaker 1: after a two point six billion dollar loss in August 359 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 1: of two Uber stocks sword Now the realities of what 360 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 1: generates profit and loss in the tech industry have been 361 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: completely divorced from productive reality or value created for quite 362 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 1: some time. The delamination of real value in big tech 363 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: happens subtly. It's not hard to see why Apple, who 364 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: created a device every human being wanted to have in 365 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:22,440 Speaker 1: their pocket, became worth a shipload more money, right pretty obvious. 366 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: The value case for Google's core business, search is also 367 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: pretty obvious. And as much as I hate Facebook, it 368 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: became initially successful because it provided people with something of 369 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,679 Speaker 1: real value, a way to stay in touch with human 370 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: beings they had met over the course of their lives. 371 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 1: Younger folks may find this odd because they've grown up 372 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: with the Internet, but as a kid, I can remember 373 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: very vividly my parents talking about the friends they'd had 374 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 1: in high school and in college and how a lifetime 375 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,360 Speaker 1: of moving regularly had severed many of the connections they'd 376 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,439 Speaker 1: valued with these people. When I joined Facebook and my 377 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: freshman year of college, I found real value and the 378 00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: ability to maintain and sometimes even build stronger connection with 379 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: people I would otherwise have lost touch with entirely. There 380 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 1: is the core of something good, or something at least 381 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: valued inherently by people in Facebook, and that's true with most, 382 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 1: if not all, of the Big five companies. When people 383 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 1: reflexively leap to defend the tech industry as an engine 384 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 1: of innovation, they can point to these successes. But the 385 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 1: point that I'm making isn't that no good ideas come 386 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: out of Silicon Valley, or that there isn't anything valuable 387 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 1: that is involved in what these companies do. It's that 388 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: the endless quest for profit and the narcissism of this 389 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: Californian ideology lead inevitably to the destruction of whatever value 390 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 1: the industry creates. This is why none of these innovations 391 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: have actually led to surges and productivity, why none of 392 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: them have made us any happier, which I think might 393 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 1: be more important. Any potential these creations had was smothered 394 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: by the ideology that drives Silicon Valley money. Facebook took 395 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: the connections that they'd made with people and used them 396 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: to feed those same people rage bait. They destroyed the 397 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 1: open Internet, shut countless local news sites, put tons of 398 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: people out of business, while algorithmically pushing millions of folks 399 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 1: around the world towards whatever kept them angriest and most online. 400 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: Google spent billions on an endless stream of spinoff products 401 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: like Google Plus and Google Glass, which were nearly all 402 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: catastrophic failures, at least on a financial sense, and all 403 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: the while they gradually turned the search results they prided 404 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: themselves on into a sponsored ad feed. Google is less 405 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 1: useful now than it was a couple of years ago. 406 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 1: You noticed this immediately if you just get on there 407 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: and start asking it questions. Elon Musk has taken the 408 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 1: visionary technology that underpins the Tesla, all created by other people, 409 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: and used the clout from that to shatter any chance 410 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: of California developing a high speed rail system. By the way, 411 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: in June of two, Tesla stock value plunged seventy five 412 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: billion dollars, which is substantially more money than the company 413 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: has ever actually made. Elucidating the full scale of the 414 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: failure of Silicon Valley and America and techno optimism would 415 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 1: take more time than I'm able to spend right now, 416 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: So instead, I want to talk about the idea that's 417 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: behind so much of the recent big failures that we've 418 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: seen from big tech, stuff like Meta pissing away ten 419 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: billion dollars half the budget of NASA in a year 420 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,640 Speaker 1: to create a worse version of vr chat. The idea 421 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: is called blitz scaling, and it basically means attempting to 422 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,919 Speaker 1: achieve massive scale at breakneck speed. You take big risks 423 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: and you spend huge amounts of money very quickly to 424 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,919 Speaker 1: try enforce apps or other products onto the market that 425 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 1: are then adopted rapidly by huge numbers of people. This 426 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 1: brings in a shipload of VC money and as a 427 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 1: way that you can make a fortune. In the years 428 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: since Jobs brought the first iPhone out on stage, this 429 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: has become the dominant model of Silicon Valley entrepreneurship. Everyone 430 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: is looking for the next iPhone, right, something that can 431 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: take over an industry, something you can take over the 432 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,280 Speaker 1: world that rapidly, that can change human life almost overnight. 433 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: In funding Calls, Mark Zuckerberg says this in Funding Calls, 434 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg says this very directly, comparing his company's metaverse 435 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 1: dreams to the new smartphone. The thing that Mark misses 436 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 1: because his ideology renders it invisible, is that Steve Jobs 437 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 1: didn't make people want the iPhone. He was able to 438 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: figure out what they wanted already, what they had talked 439 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 1: about wanting for decades, starting with trike orders and communicators 440 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: on Star Trek, and he lashed his dev team until 441 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: they built the damn thing. Now. The metaverse has some 442 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,120 Speaker 1: analogs in fiction, including the thing that it gets its 443 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 1: name from um, but number one, most depictions of the 444 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: metaverse in fiction are not aspirational things people want their 445 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: dystopian uh. There's no evidence that people actually want this 446 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,919 Speaker 1: thing that he's igniting a fortune to build, or that 447 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 1: they'd spend meaningful periods of time in it if it existed. 448 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: There's not a lot of polling on this data, but 449 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: one in seven but one se person survey I found 450 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: showed less than respondents respect expressing an interest in meta 451 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: in a metaverse like the one Zuck is trying to build. 452 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: The last time Facebook provided any kind of information about 453 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 1: how many people are on Horizon Worlds, which is kind 454 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 1: of the core of their metaverse efforts, It was somewhere 455 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 1: around three thousand people in the most recent quarter. They 456 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 1: declined to provide an update to those numbers, which suggests 457 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: the number has not increased um And if you just 458 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: want to look at what happens when people create a 459 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 1: digital product that actually has a strong base of interest, 460 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 1: look at how quickly World of Warcraft went from, you know, 461 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 1: a thing that very few people outside of nerds would 462 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 1: have known much about, to a thing that was entirely mainstream, 463 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 1: millions of users, regular references to it on television. You're 464 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: just not seeing that with any of this metaverse ship 465 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: because there's nothing in it that people actually want. The 466 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 1: sheer hollowness of big tech is starting to become financially 467 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 1: obvious to Facebook, Stock has lost fifty seven percent of 468 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: its value in the last year. Amazon is down Google 469 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 1: by and even Apple has fallen by fourteen percent. More 470 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: to the point, I think any honest person has to 471 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 1: look at the last fifteen years or so in which 472 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 1: these companies have ruled our economic and social lives and asked, 473 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: are we better off now? Over the course of the 474 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 1: nineteenth century, productivity and income rose at unprecedented rates. There 475 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 1: was a lot of brutality in this process, right. We talked, 476 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: you know, on Behind the Bastards regularly about all of 477 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 1: the horrible labor things that happened in the nineteenth century. 478 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,160 Speaker 1: It also marked the beginning of the fossil fuel age, 479 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 1: which may well kill us all. But while all this 480 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: was going on, another thing that happened is wages for 481 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 1: the working class doubled in the first half of the 482 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 1: nineteenth century, and the second half. Life expectancy rose faster 483 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: than it ever had before as well, and that continued 484 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,880 Speaker 1: through the first part of the twentieth century. Now, near 485 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 1: the end of the first quarter of the twenty one century, 486 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: we're not seeing that kind of movement. The United States 487 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 1: is now ending its second consecutive year of declining life 488 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 1: expectancy for the first time in any of our lifetimes, 489 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 1: and real average wage, adjusted for inflation, has remained flat 490 00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: for almost half a century. Progress has flatlined, and nothing 491 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: about how brilliant the modern tech industry is or how 492 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: cool some of these gadgets and products are can change 493 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: those fundamental facts. It's a failure. It Could Happen Here 494 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: as a production of cool Zone Media. For more podcasts 495 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool zone media 496 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: dot com or check us out on the I Heart 497 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,360 Speaker 1: Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 498 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: You can find sources for It could Happen Here, updated 499 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 1: monthly at cool zone Media dot com slash sources. Thanks 500 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 1: for listening.