1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: All right, Brent Johnson, Santiago Capital on Twitter. I always 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: love sitting down, hanging out with you and catching up, 3 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: and I'm excited what we have to talk about today. 4 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: So let's just get right into it if you want 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: to get to a philosophical level, but even just like 6 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: a realistic level, like the whole world is based off 7 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: of energy, Like the whole world is based off of energy. 8 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: And it seems like through disastrous policy decisions over the 9 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: last decade of shutting down energy throughout Europe and even 10 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: the United States UM, and through inflationary policies, we've kind 11 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: of created this perfect storm UM and it seems that 12 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 1: it's put a lot of pressure onto UM the sovereigns, 13 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: if you will. Right, So, now you have Germany, for example, 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: that's been a net exporter, but now they're a net 15 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: importer or their energy costs are so high now they're 16 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: having to shut their manufacturing down, which is bad, that's 17 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: long term effects of d industrialization. But they're also now 18 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: it looks like a lot of nations are being forced 19 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: to dump maybe US treasuries to get the money to 20 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: bring in the energy UM. And at the same time, 21 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: it looks like the Fed is trying to fight inflation, 22 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: which most of inflation is being caused by energy. So 23 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 1: it seems like this energy, it seems like energy and 24 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: this inflationary system is like at the center, the epicenter 25 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: of this entire storm the world is is kind of 26 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:23,679 Speaker 1: facing right now. I mean, it's it's the end of 27 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: this debt cycle, potentially the sovereign long term debt cycle. 28 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: But then you have energy that's maybe the pin pricking 29 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: the bubble. How would you how would you look at 30 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: that now? I I think they're I think that's absolutely right. 31 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,320 Speaker 1: Like energy is a huge part of what's going on 32 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: now for a couple of reasons. Um. Number one, you know, 33 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: anybody who's seeing dune right knows that the spice must 34 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: flow right. And in many ways, you know, oil is 35 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: the spice that keeps the global economy running. So to 36 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: think that we could talk about all these big macro 37 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: events that are going on and that somehow energy wasn't 38 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: a part of it would be kind of silly. Um. 39 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: So I think whether it's a byproduct of everything else 40 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: that's going on, or if that's the cause, I I 41 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 1: don't really know, but I know it's a huge factor. Um. 42 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,799 Speaker 1: And to your point. You know, these these uh all 43 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 1: use the word disastrous. People can use whatever the report 44 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: that they want. These these these kind of disastrous energy 45 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 1: policies and green mandates, um that have been put in 46 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: place before we were ready to have any kind of 47 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: a transition is kind of exacerbating it, right and so 48 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: and and of course, the way I always come out, 49 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: I I always come at from the big picture down 50 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: and I and you know, my focus is on currencies. 51 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: It's important to to understand that there's a couple of 52 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: dynamics that affect currencies that that are that are directly 53 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 1: a tied that are directly tied to energy, right um. 54 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: And then this plays into geopolitics and military issues that 55 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 1: are going on with Russia and China and Ukraine and Europe. Right. 56 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: So it's all kind of interconnected. It's hard to it's 57 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: hard to talk about just oil without seeping into these 58 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: other areas. But but you know, obviously the big issue 59 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: with oil and with many other commodities is that they're 60 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: priced and typically traded in dollars, and you know, whether 61 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: you're doing business in the United States, that's typically the case. 62 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: That's changing a bit on the edges, But by and large, 63 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: the world still trades on dollars, and energy trade around 64 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: the world takes place in dollars. Part of the issue 65 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: that's happening now is that over the last let's just 66 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 1: call it ten years, UM, the US has become more 67 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: self sufficient in energy terms. Now again, I think there 68 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 1: was a couple of years where we were actually a 69 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: net exporter. I think in the last year we're kind 70 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: of maybe a march back to being a marginal net importer. Um. 71 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: It kind of depends on whether shales currently pumping or not. 72 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: But but this is important for a couple of reasons 73 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: because as the US becomes more energy self sufficient and 74 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: is not it does not need to buy oil from 75 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: the Middle East or Venezuela or Russia or wherever it is. 76 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: Um that that not only helps their domestic industry, but 77 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: it also ends up meaning that less dollars are getting 78 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 1: distributed outside the United States. Right, for years and years 79 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 1: and years, we were a huge net oil importers. So 80 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 1: we would the oil would come in and the dollars 81 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 1: would go out, and then those dollars would exist in 82 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: the eurodollar market and it would provide liquidity for the 83 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: eurodollar market. But as the US has become more energy 84 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: self sufficient. They don't have to export dollars for as 85 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: many imports of energy as they used to and so 86 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 1: but but a big part of it is that a 87 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: lot of the US dollar debt that exists in the 88 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: eurodollar market was extended or put in place. However, you 89 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: want to think about that while the US was exporting 90 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,120 Speaker 1: a lot of dollars. So you have a situation and 91 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: where a lot of credit was extended and a lot 92 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: of debt was taking on when there was a lot 93 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:08,559 Speaker 1: of liquidity. But now moving forward, due to the fact 94 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 1: that we're exporting fewer dollars and that the US is 95 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 1: tightening monetary policy, it just means that there's less dollars circulating, 96 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 1: not just in the United States, but especially in the 97 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 1: euro dollar market. And so then it just becomes this 98 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: vicious cycle. And you know, we've talked about this several times, right, 99 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: but now you have a situation where UM due to 100 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: these UM energy policies, due to the military conflicts and 101 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: geopolitic political conflicts that are going on, and due to 102 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: UM you know, the tightening of the money supply in 103 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: the United States, you've already got UM oil rising in 104 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: all terms, but even more so in other country terms. Right, 105 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 1: so if you think about the euro and the yen 106 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: or even the yuan, um, you know, their currencies are 107 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: down in the in the UK, their their currencies are 108 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 1: down anywhere from five this year. Well, if oil is 109 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 1: you know, ninety bucks or whatever, eighty eight bucks or 110 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 1: whatever it is today, and then and then and oil 111 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 1: prices are going higher, and then your currency is losing 112 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: value versus the dollar. That's another ten or percent kicker 113 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: on top of it. And then you get into the 114 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 1: supply chain issues where energy could gap up even higher. 115 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: You know, you've kind of got this perfect storm for um, 116 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: you know, chaos really lack of a better words. But 117 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: but in short, I think I think oil and energy 118 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: is a huge, huge part of this, and energy is 119 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: in many ways driving the geopolitical conflicts right now, right 120 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: between Russia and Ukraine or in you know, Europe and Russia. 121 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 1: Yeah you can't, you can't. Really, These are very sticky 122 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: situations or interconnected situations. You can't really look at one 123 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 1: without the other. Now, um, it seems that you know, 124 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: this whole war with Russia is really being a you know, 125 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: who knows where it started or whatever. But I mean, 126 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: it's really about the energy right now, right, And it 127 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: seems like Putin has come out and said that the uh, 128 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: what do you say, the economy is of fake imaginary 129 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,239 Speaker 1: wealth are being inevitbly replaced by the economies of real 130 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: assets or whatever, right, And I think he's talking about 131 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 1: the fake FIAT system is being replaced with real commodities. 132 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: And he said what he was like trolling. He's like, um, 133 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: what are you gonna do heat your homes with social 134 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: media companies? He said something to that effect. You know, Um, 135 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: but I mean he he has some very good points. 136 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I think Putin is one of 137 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: the smarter world leaders that there is. And and you know, 138 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 1: I think to a certain extent he's played his cards 139 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: pretty well. I don't necessarily think he's a three DHS genius. 140 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: But um, you know, you can't credit him or you 141 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: can't discredit him for the moves he's made so far. Yeah, 142 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: So if you know, we have the situation going on 143 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 1: to your point, um, gold priced in euros or yen 144 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: is way is a way bigger problem than it is 145 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: priced in dollars. Um, So I'm saying, uh, kind of 146 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 1: kind of like back to this this war, if the 147 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: fence trying to fight inflation, um part of keeping the 148 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: dollar propped up or making the dollar stronger than it 149 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: helps offset that inflation that we're seeing versus other nations 150 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: that are forced to buy oil with with a d 151 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: de valued currency. But on top of it, then they're 152 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: being forced well not maybe being forced, but like Japan 153 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: is like trying to maybe prop up their currencies at 154 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: the same time as they're having to import oil at 155 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: these crazy levels, right, so they're down at the same 156 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: time that they're doing to yield curve control on their bonds, 157 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: which so they're there, they have they have a bunch 158 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: of cross currents going at the Bank of Japan here. Yeah, 159 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 1: so you're obviously the dollar milkshake guy. The theory is 160 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: that the dollar will suck up the liquidity from all 161 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: the other currencies and be the last one standing. We're 162 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 1: definitely witnessing that plane. But this is kind of all 163 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: part of that, right, So as Japan is forced to 164 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: defend it, I mean, they're going to continue to value. 165 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: So my so my thesis has always been that whether 166 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: the Fed wants it or not, ultimately the dollar will 167 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: get away from them to the upside. And the reason 168 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: I say get away from them is I think currently 169 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 1: they want a stronger dollar, and we should probably talk 170 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: about that. But even I think that before this is 171 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 1: all said and done, um, the dollar will go higher 172 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: than they want it to go. And it doesn't mean 173 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 1: it's going to go on a straight line, and there 174 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: will no doubt be periods of dollar weakness along the way. 175 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: But you know the well, even though the Fed might 176 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 1: want a stronger dollar in the short term, they don't 177 00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: want a dollar that's rising so fast that it's out 178 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: of control because that will literally wreck the entire monetary system. 179 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: You know, the monetary system wasn't set up for a 180 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: for a for a continually increasing dollar. It will literally 181 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: cause the system to crash. So while they may want 182 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: the dollar higher in the short term, I don't think 183 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: they want it significantly higher in the long term. But 184 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 1: ultimately I think that will happen. Now in the short term, 185 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: I think that that they actually do want a stronger 186 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: dollar because a stronger dollar right now accomplishes several things, 187 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: and I think some of these things they would admit to, 188 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 1: and some of them I think they would not admit to. 189 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: And some others they may vehemently deny even though really 190 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: they do want it. Um but you know, right now, 191 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 1: for better for worse. Even though they want inflation, a 192 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: small amount of inflation over time that allows them to 193 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 1: inflate away the debt, they don't want double digit inflation 194 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: year over year. And the reason they don't want that 195 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: high of inflation year over years because that is very 196 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: politically hard to handle. UM. It causes too much stress 197 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: in the in the in the local economy, it causes 198 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: citizens to push back on business leaders, government leaders, officials, etcetera, etcetera. 199 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: So the government would love to get three or four 200 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,199 Speaker 1: that they say they're their target is too. I think 201 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: they would love three or four percent inflation for you know, 202 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 1: five or ten years and they inflate the dead away. 203 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 1: I think they would absolutely love that. The problem is 204 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: it's very hard to get three or four percent consistent inflation. 205 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: What you what you get is this, you know, very lumpy, 206 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: you know, crazy inflation that we've had over the last 207 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: college year or two years. And so because of the 208 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: political pushback that they're getting and because of um, what's 209 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 1: going on in the global economy with all this inflation, 210 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: they are trying to dial it back down, not the 211 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: least of which is their reputation, right. They don't want 212 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: to blow up their reputation, and they're very embarre. The FED, 213 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 1: I'm talking about the Fed's very embarrassed that inflation came 214 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: in so high and they and they were they were 215 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: wrong on the transitory nation nature of it, and so 216 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,839 Speaker 1: they want to get it back down for a few reasons. 217 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: They want to get it back down in order to 218 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: restore their reputation, but they also want to get it 219 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: back down so that, you know, the pushback economically and politically, 220 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 1: UM is less um. And the way that they're trying 221 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 1: to do that is by killing demand. Right. They don't 222 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: really have control over the supply side of the equation, 223 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: but they think they have control over the demand side 224 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: of the equation. And if you tighten monetary supply, which 225 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,319 Speaker 1: means you know, you're taking liquidity out of the system, 226 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: either through open market operations of the FED or through 227 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: raising interest rates, tighter monetary supply should lead to less growth, 228 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: and it should, you know, push demand down. And so 229 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 1: they're everybody broken. Then nobody buys anything, right, Well, I mean, 230 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: here's here's the funny thing mark. It's not funny, it's 231 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 1: actually tragic. But you know, I think again, for better 232 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: for worse. I think Powell has been about as clear 233 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: as clear a speaking central banker as I've ever heard. 234 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: All year, he has come out and said, we need 235 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 1: to get inflation under control. It's our primary concern. We're 236 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: going to raise rates, and whenever the market has misinterpreted him, 237 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: he's come out a few days later, a few weeks 238 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: later and said, hey, hey, hey, I want to be clear. 239 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 1: You guys aren't listening to me. I'm going to raise rates, 240 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: and we are going to have some pain. And that 241 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: means that people are gonna have to get paid less, 242 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: they're gonna have to lose their jobs, and house prices 243 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: are gonna have to come down. And even though those 244 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: are bad things, that will be less bad than letting 245 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:29,600 Speaker 1: inflation run hot. I mean, he's been very very clear 246 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 1: about it. Now, you might think he's lying, you might 247 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: think that he's wrong, you might think he's misguided. That's fine, 248 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: but there's really no confusion in what his words are saying. 249 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,199 Speaker 1: And so, you know, and so I think that raising 250 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: rates and getting the dollar stronger is what they are 251 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 1: trying to do in order to get inflation down. Now 252 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: ironically or an ironically, depending on I guess where you're sitting. 253 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 1: Is that by trying to tampen down inflation domestically by 254 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: raising the dollar, they're actually exacerbating inflation overseas. And what 255 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: I mean by that is is if the dollar is 256 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: going up ten or fiftcent, that means other currencies are 257 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: going down ten or right. And so if we already 258 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 1: have high levels of inflation in the US and now 259 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: those same goods are even more expensive in euro terms 260 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: or end terms or Australian dollars or whatever it is, um, 261 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: you know, and it's causing those other countries to support 262 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: their currencies because their currencies are losing value too much. 263 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: And those other countries, in addition to trying to support 264 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: their currencies, they're also trying to support their bond markets. 265 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: UM through some form of QE. You get into a 266 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: situation where you're exacerbating the the same issues that the 267 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: FETE is fighting domestically are being exacerbated outside the United States. 268 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: And I think we've talked about this before, but this 269 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: whole situation, UM, there's a name for it. It's called 270 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: Triffin's dilemma. And Triffin was an economist back in the 271 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: sixties and heat coined to this term, and he said, 272 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:08,160 Speaker 1: if an individual countries currency is used as a domestic 273 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: currency and simultaneously used as the global currency, at some 274 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: point along the way, it will come into con the 275 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: needs of the domestic economy will come into conflict with 276 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: the needs of the global economy. And and that's literally 277 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 1: right exactly where we're at. Um, you know, the rest 278 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: of the world, because it trades in dollars, and because 279 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: the dollar is higher, their local currencies are worthless. It's 280 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: making their funding costs higher, it's causing their economies to slow, 281 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 1: and it's just a real mess, right, And so you know, 282 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: we're right in the heart of this Triffan's dilemma where 283 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 1: the US needs one thing and the global economy needs 284 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: the other, and the FED and the other central banks 285 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: around the world are trying to thread this very very 286 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: small needle hole. Yeah, the proverbial soft landing, right. Um, Yeah, 287 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: I was saying, how I think that's just such a 288 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: horrible analogy where you kind think that like they're this 289 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: fighter jet with a million controls, but really it's like 290 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: a hot air balloon. Right. All they can really do 291 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 1: is like the soft landing is when you're both you 292 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: and your friend are both thrown out of a third 293 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: story window. He it's the ground and you land on him, 294 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: so for you it's a little softer. But I mean 295 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: that's essentially what it is. Um you know. And then 296 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: there's one other part of this that I didn't mention yet, 297 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 1: and I don't remember if we've talked about this before 298 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 1: or not. We probably have, um I put I personally 299 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: believe that there's another thing that's going on here that, 300 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: while not the direct reason that they're raising rates, is 301 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: a is a byproduct that they don't mind, and that 302 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: is that I think that part of the reason that 303 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:47,239 Speaker 1: they raise rates is it at least in the short term. 304 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: Now we can probably have a big argument of how 305 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 1: this ends up in the long run, but in the 306 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: short term it cements the United States position as then 307 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: on the top of the mountain. And what I mean 308 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 1: by that is if the whole world is slowing down 309 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: a can omically and having these these uh, these problems, 310 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: but the US is in a relatively better place, and 311 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 1: by raising rates in the US because that's what the 312 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 1: US needs, but by not but by you know, but 313 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,959 Speaker 1: also hurting other countries in the process. Even if everybody 314 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 1: is going down, those other countries are coming under more 315 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: pressure than the United States is, so on a relative basis, 316 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: the US is securing its spot on top of the mountain. 317 00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: The other part that it does is I think that 318 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: it if it will force countries to choose sides. And 319 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: what I mean by that is, I think we can 320 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: probably all agree that, you know, Whereas for the last 321 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: twenty or thirty years, the whole world was kind of 322 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,959 Speaker 1: moving towards one globalized economy and you know, peaceful, you know, 323 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 1: one world, you know, over the last couple of years 324 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: that that started the fracture. And now we're we're going 325 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 1: away from globalization more towards the globalization, and we're gonna 326 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 1: have rather than have one supply chain, we're gonna have 327 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: to or multiple supply chains. Countries are going to have 328 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:02,120 Speaker 1: to try to become more self sufficient rather than relying 329 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 1: on others. And in that whole you know, in that 330 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: whole dynamic, there's you know, East versus West, China versus 331 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: the United States, Russia versus the United States, Russia versus Europe. 332 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 1: So there's all these geopolitical um you know issues as well. 333 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 1: And I think by putting countries that are maybe on 334 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,239 Speaker 1: the margin, you know, they're not quite sure whether they 335 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: would be better off to go with the East or 336 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: the West, or with the U S or not with 337 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 1: the U S. If the U S can put them 338 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 1: in a vulnerable spot, UM, it could then force them 339 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: or try to force them or at least, you know, 340 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:41,600 Speaker 1: manipulate that country um into join in the US and 341 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,439 Speaker 1: you know, maybe the USS something like, you know, we 342 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 1: will help you out with your funding needs, or we'll 343 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 1: give you a swap line, or we'll help you on 344 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: some trade deals, give you a break on some prices, 345 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: but in in exchange, we're gonna need you to vote 346 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,719 Speaker 1: with us at the u N on this thing, or 347 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: we're gonna need you to sign this trade agreement or 348 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: whatever it is. But I think only forward where in 349 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 1: the past we've you know, handed out swap lines, are 350 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:09,199 Speaker 1: you know, been more willing to use dollar policy to 351 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: help the global economy. I think now we're going to 352 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: be more focused on using the dollar to help the 353 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: U S specifically, and then helping our friends where where 354 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: where we think it's most advantageous to do so yeah, no, 355 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 1: I agree with that. I think, um, what's interesting though, 356 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: is back to as I said that Putin's comment before 357 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: about the the fake economy versus the real economy. If 358 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 1: you're a third world nation that you desperately need whatever commodity, 359 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: wheat or you know, energy inputs or whatever, what is 360 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 1: the US can offer you dollars? That doesn't solve your problem, right, 361 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: because if a dollar is only a medium exchange, what 362 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 1: I need is the commodities. I need the inputs. So 363 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 1: Russia says, hey, here's the inputs, and and the U says, well, 364 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: here's the dollars, Like which one you're you need the inputs, right, 365 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 1: And so that that kind of creates it. I think 366 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: there's a I think it's a little bit of both. 367 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 1: So I I understand the point you're making, and I'm 368 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: an energy basis and maybe like a fertilizer basis and 369 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: a lot of these other resources. I totally get you 370 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 1: in and I think we're in agreement there. Where I 371 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: think that maybe that view is a little bit overplayed 372 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,239 Speaker 1: is again, if everybody goes to this, right, if if 373 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: everybody now goes to self sufficiency and you know, no 374 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 1: more trading and you know, only trading with your friends. 375 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: I think the US is probably, on an overall basis 376 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: the most self sufficient country in the world. And while 377 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:31,719 Speaker 1: we might not manufacture iPads and tractors and all that 378 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,959 Speaker 1: kind of stuff, would do manufacture more food and you know, 379 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: the world in the US than anywhere else in the world. 380 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: And if we get into this energy crisis, that then 381 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 1: translates into a food crisis. Right. I think the food 382 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 1: that we create here will be pretty be valuable and 383 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: will be in in need, and that itself could be 384 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: a bargaining tool. Um. But but I do get your point, 385 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: and this is what makes it so interesting, right, Um. 386 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: I think to a an extent, we both agree that 387 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 1: the end of FIAT or or the or the what's 388 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: the right way, that the end of the monetary system 389 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 1: as we know it is probably on the horizon. Um. 390 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: And whether that is successful or not successful, I think 391 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: the transition or the lack of transition will probably be chaotic. Yeah, 392 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: And the question is how how far can they keep 393 00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: kicking the can? But we know at some point that 394 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 1: can and absolutely we I don't know about you, but 395 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: I've thought, like a lot of other people, thought that 396 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 1: it would have come already, but they can pull more 397 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: magic tricks out than you have to guilty, guilty, many more, 398 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: to be honest, that that's what I mean. I would 399 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 1: have guessed this would have happened ten years ago, you know, 400 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: between two thousand eleven and after after everything we went 401 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: through in the global financial crisis, I thought we would 402 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 1: have another crisis by two thousand eleven and two thousand 403 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: fourteen at the end, at at the forest, right, And 404 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 1: we did start to have a crisis in the Eurozone 405 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: in two thousand eleven twelve. But you know, Mario Droggy 406 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 1: kicked that can down the road better than anybody I've 407 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: ever seen. And so here we are. And that's kind 408 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: of how these big, big, you know, macro trends, they 409 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 1: always take longer than you think that they're going to take. 410 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: And you know, and that's why I've started saying that, 411 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: you know, I mean, this could last another three years, 412 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,920 Speaker 1: maybe last another five years, ten years, I don't really know. 413 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: But what I do think, and I think you agree, 414 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: is that you know, we were not only are we 415 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 1: coming up on the cans in the road, but there's 416 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 1: more than one can, right we we we we we've 417 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 1: not only kicked economic problems down the road. We've kicked 418 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 1: social problems down the road, We've kicked political problems down 419 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: the road, We've kicked geopolitical problems down the road. And 420 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,879 Speaker 1: the other thing is it's not just us, Like, you know, 421 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: Europe's kicked all these cans down the road, and uh, 422 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 1: China's kicked all these cans in Japan, and also you know, 423 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 1: all of these countries have kicked all these cans down 424 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: the road. And now the whole I feel like the 425 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,919 Speaker 1: whole world is converging on this intersection, and this intersection 426 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: is just filled with cans. Yeah, and you know it's 427 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: gonna be very hard to clear all those cans out 428 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 1: of the way without somebody getting hurt. And you know, 429 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: it just I don't know what will happen. I just 430 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: don't think it will be smooth. And and so that's 431 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: kind of where I come down. I think the US 432 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: still has the longest road ahead of us, you know, 433 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: but I think to the to the point you were making, 434 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: I would agree with I think, uh, you know, we 435 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: go into a multipolar world. We probably have three or 436 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: four kind of economic trade zones. The US is more 437 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:33,160 Speaker 1: isolated probably just maybe northern hemisphere, northern southern hemisphere kind 438 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: of thing like that. But I want to jump back 439 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 1: to what you were talking about with the maybe the 440 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: FED kind of fighting back weaponizing the dollar kind of 441 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,239 Speaker 1: a thing. Um. I know, I remember in Miami we 442 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:44,679 Speaker 1: were hanging out by the pool that day and we 443 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 1: were kind of talking about that topic specifically. But I 444 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: thought I had seen you on Twitter also saying that 445 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 1: you don't think the FED. Anyone who thinks the FED 446 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: needs to defend the dollar doesn't understand it or something 447 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: to something that something that effect, right, So like the 448 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,959 Speaker 1: FED would you were kind of like taking the position 449 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 1: like what do you mean the FET needs to protect 450 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: the all the fect to have to protect anything? Um, 451 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 1: But now you're saying the FED might be actually trying 452 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 1: to fight back. Well, so maybe we have a definition 453 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: of terms problem. Right. I view what the FET is 454 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 1: doing as offense. I don't view it as a defense. Right. 455 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: When when an emerging markets currency is plumbing and they 456 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: raise rates in order to save it from following to zero, 457 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: you know, and too attract capital, to me, that is 458 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 1: defending a currency. But if you're if you're already the 459 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 1: strongest currency and you continue to raise rates even though 460 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: money is already flowing into your currency. To me, to me, 461 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 1: that's you walking around to these other countries and cutting 462 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 1: their heads off with a sword. That's not your standing 463 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 1: behind your shield, ducking down hoping that you don't get mauled, right, 464 00:24:55,240 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 1: and so from a position is not a position of weakness. Yeah, exactly, exactly. Now, 465 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: could you say that they're using their offensive weapon in 466 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: order to defend their overall position. I suppose you could. Sure, 467 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: you know, if we we're looking at it from that perspective, 468 00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 1: I I can see where you're coming from. Um, But 469 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 1: you know, to me, this is not an accident. Um. 470 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 1: To me, this is is being deliberately done. Well, I 471 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: know Powel is doing it deliberately in order to crush inflation. 472 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: I mean, he has very clearly said that, and you know, 473 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 1: I don't. I think that's about the only tool he 474 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: has to try and crush inflation. You know that the 475 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: FED has no control over supply chains, right, So I 476 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 1: do believe him when he says that, But I also 477 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: believe there's these other factors that they probably would not 478 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:49,360 Speaker 1: admit that they also don't mind that are happening. Now. 479 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: M talking about this fighting back or this war. Um, obviously, 480 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,360 Speaker 1: who are seeing it happen all over the world. Let's 481 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: talk about a couple ones here. So, Um, Trump started 482 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 1: economic war. I've often said that World War three is 483 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: probably over economic and information. It's like more than a 484 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: kinetic war, hot war at least. Maybe I'm just I'm 485 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,120 Speaker 1: optimistic and hopeful, but maybe Trump started this economic war 486 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 1: with China with these with these tariffs, right, it was 487 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 1: like a trade war. And then he started he started 488 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,640 Speaker 1: attacking their tech with Huawei and even trying to ban TikTok. 489 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 1: The Biden administration just kept those right in place, which 490 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 1: is surprising. I thought the Biden and his son were 491 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: in the back pocket of the Chinese, but either way, 492 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: they seemed to keep that in place. And now was 493 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: it last week like Biden the Biden administration like dropped 494 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 1: the hammer on China with the whole chip saying, I 495 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: mean just and then there was something subsequent to that 496 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: as well. But yeah, sorry I'm interrupted, but yeah, I 497 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 1: agree with you. So just like out of nowhere, it's like, hey, 498 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: by next week, any American is gonna lose their citizenship 499 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: if they don't come back to the United States and 500 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,800 Speaker 1: they're just cut off completely. I mean, that seems like 501 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: this big escalation in this economic war. What was the 502 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: other thing that led to that? You think, Well, so 503 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: the other thing that happened was when was I think 504 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 1: this was on Monday. Um. A lot of people didn't 505 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: see it, and it didn't get much press coverage, but 506 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 1: the Department of Justice came out and had a big 507 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 1: press conference with you know, the Attorney General, the Attorney 508 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,639 Speaker 1: General of New York, all these different people, you know, 509 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,679 Speaker 1: six or seven people at this press conference, and they 510 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 1: arrested I can't remember if it was five or eight 511 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: Chinese nationals and for spying in the United States. And 512 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 1: and typically when something like this happens or or or 513 00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 1: historically when something like this has happened, the US has 514 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,920 Speaker 1: kind of treated it with kid gloves. They would often say, 515 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 1: you know, they would never say it was the Chinese government. 516 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 1: It would they would say it was someone from China, 517 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 1: but maybe they were acting on their own or whatever 518 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: it is. But they were. They not only didn't use 519 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: kid gloves, but they went out of their way at 520 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 1: this press conference to make it very clear that this 521 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 1: was a Chinese government operation and that China's government was 522 00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,919 Speaker 1: trying to influence political and legal decisions in the United Dates. 523 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: So to me, that was just another signal that, you know, 524 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 1: the gloves are kind of off, or if they're not off, 525 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:11,679 Speaker 1: they're they're being rapidly pulled off. Right, And because I 526 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,879 Speaker 1: just you just haven't typically seen it be that that 527 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: that overt um, and considering all that's going on in 528 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 1: the world, I guess it's it's it's not shocking, you know, 529 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 1: before I forget, I should say, you touched on Trump 530 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 1: started this kind of this economic war with China, I 531 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 1: would I would say this, And I know because Trump 532 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,000 Speaker 1: is such a hot button issue for many people, I 533 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,479 Speaker 1: hope that you can put whatever personal feelings you have 534 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: for Trump aside if you just focus on two things, 535 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: If you focus on the fact that he very clearly 536 00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: pointed out that our relationship with China was perhaps not 537 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: quite as friendly or should not be quite as friendly 538 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 1: as everybody else UM thought it should be, and that 539 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 1: they were in many ways taking advantage of our relationship. 540 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 1: I think he was the first one to very publicly 541 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 1: declare that without worrying about the political ramifications of doing so. UM, 542 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: and he did it in a very clever way. I 543 00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: thought he did it in a way that he said listen, 544 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 1: I like z. I think, jeez, he's really smart. If 545 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 1: I was him, I would probably do the same thing. 546 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,239 Speaker 1: You know, he's been out negotiating our guys. So he 547 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 1: did it. He did it in a way that wasn't 548 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: necessarily attacking China, but he was just showing weakness in America. 549 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: But regardless of how you view that, you know that 550 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: that was the beginning of of bringing all this stuff 551 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,720 Speaker 1: to the fore and and and showing that it's not 552 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 1: it has been somewhat of a one way of relationship 553 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,720 Speaker 1: that needs to be addressed. Um So, so I think 554 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 1: that's pretty interesting. Um. The other thing that I was 555 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: going to say was that, um, I think also with 556 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 1: shout you know what now, I can't remember this other point. 557 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: I was gonna say it was something it was something 558 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 1: else related to China. But I think the fact that 559 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 1: he's brought it forward, and then the fact that that 560 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 1: Biden didn't just like you said, turn around and squash it, 561 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: and and oh I know what I was gonna say, 562 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,600 Speaker 1: it has to do with with this chips thing, right 563 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,320 Speaker 1: like this. The point here is that you know, Trump 564 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,040 Speaker 1: made the point that, listen, we're still America. You know, 565 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 1: we still have a lot of things that we can do. 566 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 1: We don't just have to back down to China and 567 00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 1: do whatever China wants. And so part of my thesis 568 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 1: has been the despite all the mistakes we've made, and 569 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 1: despite the fact that we maybe are not held in 570 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 1: as great of a steem as we used to be, 571 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 1: that we are still a global power and there are 572 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 1: still a few tricks up our sleeve that we can use. 573 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,400 Speaker 1: And to your point, this thing with the chips, and 574 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 1: you know, I thought that was a pretty clever way, 575 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,320 Speaker 1: you know, for the US to pull some of its 576 00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,719 Speaker 1: own tricks. You know, to me, that's as much as 577 00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 1: a three D chess move as anything else that's happened 578 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 1: right now. Does it have some back blow blowback on 579 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 1: the U s Yeah, potentially, But you know, if all 580 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: these workers leave China that that's not exactly great for 581 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,680 Speaker 1: China either, right, So to me, it's it's just another 582 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 1: way that you know, the global hedgemont is showing that, 583 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: you know what, we may not be quite as strong 584 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 1: as we used to be, but we're also not just 585 00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 1: going to roll over and walk away. Yeah, the one 586 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 1: benefit that the US has. Well, there's many, um, but 587 00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 1: one big one is that, um, the US could We 588 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 1: don't make the iPads here, but we could we design 589 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 1: them here. Right. Uh. We don't make all the chips here, 590 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 1: but we design of them, right we So we could 591 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 1: make all that stuff here if we want it, because 592 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: we design it. But but most importantly, we are the consumers. 593 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 1: We buy it. Right, So our companies could make it 594 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 1: and we could buy it where China can keep making it, 595 00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:50,479 Speaker 1: But who's gonna buy it? I'm so glad. I'm so 596 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 1: glad you brought this up. And I didn't have to 597 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 1: bring this up because a lot of times when I 598 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 1: bring this up, people say, oh, no, the middle class 599 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 1: and China is growing very fast and they're gonna overtake us, 600 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 1: And you know, maybe, but as of right now, that's 601 00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: not the case. And again to your point, our consumer 602 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 1: class or consumer society, many people see it as a negative, 603 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:16,440 Speaker 1: and I understand those arguments, but it is also that 604 00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: consumer society is the engine that he or it's the 605 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: it's the lubrication that runs the engine of the world. Right. 606 00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 1: If you don't have a market to sell into, that 607 00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: doesn't help you to make all these products, um, and 608 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 1: so on a relative basis the US. You know, again, 609 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 1: we don't have to have all these iPads. Um, you 610 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 1: have to have food, right, So well, you don't have 611 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 1: to have an iPad, you probably do need to eat. 612 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 1: And if it really got down to brass tacks, I 613 00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 1: think we could probably feed ourselves better than anywhere else 614 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: in the world. Oh yeah, we have more arable land 615 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 1: in the United States and river and water than anybody. Um. 616 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 1: I was just I was telling you. I was just 617 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 1: down in Mexico and they don't have a consumer market 618 00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,600 Speaker 1: there and so because of that, there's no opportunity. And 619 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,360 Speaker 1: there's this town called portost Candido that we've been going 620 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: to for years, and this one section of town has 621 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,239 Speaker 1: gotten really you know, all these digital nomads have come in. 622 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,520 Speaker 1: A lot of Europeans come there, and the locals aren't 623 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 1: super happy because now it's gotten all touristed out and 624 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 1: there's a lot of people. But I was telling my daughters, 625 00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,160 Speaker 1: just kind of trying to explain this to him. I said, 626 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 1: but look at now all these businesses, restaurant shops that 627 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 1: have opened up. Hundreds or even thousands of people are 628 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 1: now employed, and now they're making money, they can go 629 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 1: spend money, and so yeah, you need the consumers and 630 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: otherwise is an opportunity. Uh. Now, let's let's jump over 631 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 1: to another war, and that's now with Saudi. And I 632 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,960 Speaker 1: think this one's even bigger because to the point we're 633 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 1: making earlier with the oil. Oil has been priced in 634 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: dollars and uh, we we can speculate about what's going on. Potentially, 635 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 1: it seems like Biden went over there to beg for oil. 636 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,480 Speaker 1: They said no, they thought they had this backdoor deal 637 00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: that wasn't there. And Saudi has come out two things publicly. 638 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 1: They said. One was that you're manipulating the market by 639 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,200 Speaker 1: these spr reserve releases. You're manipulate in the market, and 640 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 1: so we'll just cut production. We can go harder than you. 641 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 1: But then their energy secretary came out and said, uh, 642 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,000 Speaker 1: something to the effect of it's not going to be 643 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,239 Speaker 1: good for you without reserves this winter or something to 644 00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,520 Speaker 1: that effect. Right. Um, and then there's the president I 645 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,920 Speaker 1: believe of South Africa, which is the s in the bricks, 646 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,920 Speaker 1: said that Saudi is going to join the bricks. Uh. 647 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,560 Speaker 1: We could speculate about that, but it looks like it's 648 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: there's a good probability that could happen. What would be 649 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:43,960 Speaker 1: the implications to the dollar if that were to happen? So, look, 650 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:50,399 Speaker 1: I think I think the headline of that, Let's say 651 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,520 Speaker 1: that if Saudi Arabia came out and said we are 652 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 1: joining the bricks and we are no longer selling our 653 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 1: product in dollars, my guess is just the headline of 654 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:06,720 Speaker 1: it would probably make the dollar initially fall potentially, although 655 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 1: that would also be seen as a potentially an active war, 656 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,840 Speaker 1: which could send the dollar much higher. But but the 657 00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: point I'll make is is if if if they stop 658 00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:20,280 Speaker 1: selling oil in dollars, that means there's even less trade 659 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 1: taking place in dollars than there was before. And I 660 00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,759 Speaker 1: already explained the fact that we're not importing as much 661 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,439 Speaker 1: as we used to means we're sending less dollars out. 662 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,319 Speaker 1: If they're not even selling oil in dollars anymore, then 663 00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:36,200 Speaker 1: there's even less dollars circulating. But all of that dollar 664 00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,840 Speaker 1: debt and all that dollar credit that's been extended in 665 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:42,360 Speaker 1: the euro dollar market still exists. So now you've got 666 00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,719 Speaker 1: an even tougher time servicing all that and paying for 667 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 1: all that. Now I know many people will say, yeah, 668 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 1: but now they don't they don't have to pay those 669 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: debts anymore, so they'll just default. Okay, that's fine. But 670 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 1: here's the issue is those dollar debts outside the United 671 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 1: States are also dollar assets out the United States. In 672 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,759 Speaker 1: that situation, you're not defaulting on the United States. You're 673 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 1: defaulting on whoever you did business with outside the United 674 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:11,840 Speaker 1: States that that that invoiced it in dollars. Turkey defaulting 675 00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,799 Speaker 1: to France, and it's Japan defaulting to Brazil, and it's 676 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:19,439 Speaker 1: you know, Saudi Arabia defaulting to or whoever it is, right, yeah, 677 00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,319 Speaker 1: and can can you start trading in gold or can 678 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:25,719 Speaker 1: you start bartering and stuff? Sure you can, but it 679 00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 1: will not be a it will not be a easy 680 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:35,279 Speaker 1: or or smooth or efficient process. So and and while 681 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,960 Speaker 1: that would certainly if they stopped selling dollars or so 682 00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:44,040 Speaker 1: oil in dollars, of course, in the long term overall picture, 683 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,839 Speaker 1: that would probably be bad for and they were able 684 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,759 Speaker 1: to maintain that, right, that would probably be bad for 685 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,920 Speaker 1: the dollar. But I actually believe that the that the 686 00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,720 Speaker 1: chaos that that would cause on a global basis would 687 00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,600 Speaker 1: cause the dollar to go higher, at least in the 688 00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 1: medium term until that all those kinks and um intricacies 689 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,560 Speaker 1: and efficiencies were worked out. That's an unpopular opinion, but 690 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 1: that's what I think. When you say it would be 691 00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 1: bad for the dollar, what does that mean? What would 692 00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 1: bad be? Well, I mean, part of the reason that 693 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,719 Speaker 1: the dollar enjoys um it's status in the world is 694 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 1: it's the biggest network in the world. Right. The reason 695 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:26,160 Speaker 1: everybody uses dollars is because everybody uses dollars, right, just 696 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,800 Speaker 1: like the reason everybody uses twitters because everybody uses Twitter. 697 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,839 Speaker 1: Everybody uses Facebook because everybody uses Facebook. And even though 698 00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,880 Speaker 1: you know, there's been competing sites and platforms that have 699 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,640 Speaker 1: popped up and tried to drop people away from Twitter 700 00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,520 Speaker 1: and Facebook, you know, yeah, a few people go over there, 701 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,720 Speaker 1: and it's happening at the margins, but Twitter and Facebook 702 00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 1: still dominate. It's kind of the same thing here. You know, 703 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,279 Speaker 1: the dollar dominates global trade. And yeah, there's a few 704 00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 1: countries that trade amongst themselves in another currency, but those 705 00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 1: platforms aren't nearly as big as the Facebook and the twitters. 706 00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:00,480 Speaker 1: And but but if everybody, you know, or you know, 707 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,440 Speaker 1: if a big portion of people leave Facebook and go 708 00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,560 Speaker 1: somewhere else, you know, it starts to hurt and if 709 00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,960 Speaker 1: and if they don't come back, you know, it will 710 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,960 Speaker 1: over time mean that Facebook will fail. And so if 711 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,160 Speaker 1: everybody left the dollar over time, it would mean the 712 00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,040 Speaker 1: dollar would fail. And what does that mean? The dollar 713 00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,560 Speaker 1: just continues to lose purchasing power. Yeah, I think it 714 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 1: would just continue to lose purchasing power, and it would 715 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:25,800 Speaker 1: maybe and it would maybe no longer be the global 716 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:30,239 Speaker 1: reserve currency. Right, And therefore, you know, for the for 717 00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,520 Speaker 1: the most part, Americans don't have to think in two currencies, right, 718 00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,239 Speaker 1: they don't have We've grown up just thinking about the 719 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 1: dollar because you know, we buy whatever we need in dollars. 720 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,279 Speaker 1: But people all over the world grow up thinking in 721 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,279 Speaker 1: two different currency terms, their local currency terms and dollar terms, 722 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,479 Speaker 1: because that's what they need to operate. Um. And so 723 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,239 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of people have called having the 724 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,320 Speaker 1: global reserve currency the exorbitant privilege for that exact reason. 725 00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,440 Speaker 1: You can print money in order to go buy oil 726 00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,319 Speaker 1: or these goods and these that and that that that's 727 00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,840 Speaker 1: called the exorbit and privilege. You know. Now in the 728 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,000 Speaker 1: last few years there's been to come upas thing. Yeah, 729 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,920 Speaker 1: but it has long term detriments too. So it's you know, 730 00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:10,000 Speaker 1: it's an exorbitant burden. Um, you know, it's a double 731 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 1: edged sword. But you know, one of the analogies I've 732 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,880 Speaker 1: used is having the global reserve currency is kind of 733 00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,200 Speaker 1: like being a vampire. Right, Yeah, there's downsides, but the 734 00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,400 Speaker 1: flip side is that you're really strong and nobody can 735 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,319 Speaker 1: kill you, and you can run around and just you know, 736 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,920 Speaker 1: pretty much do whatever you want. And so, um, you know, 737 00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,080 Speaker 1: maybe this would be if everybody left the dollar, or 738 00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,040 Speaker 1: if a big portion of people left the dollar, that 739 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:36,880 Speaker 1: would be you know, the rest of the world driving 740 00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,799 Speaker 1: a stake through the vampire's heart. Yeah, you know, and 741 00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,080 Speaker 1: I they might eventually get him and kill the vampire. 742 00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,239 Speaker 1: But my guess is that he'll kill a few people 743 00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 1: along the way before that happens. Now, when we talk 744 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,040 Speaker 1: about all these currencies losing value, Um, you know, the Euro, 745 00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,240 Speaker 1: the end down, the Turk, you mentioned Turkey. The Turkish 746 00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,879 Speaker 1: layer is down eighty I don't know over the last 747 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,759 Speaker 1: five years to the US dollar. Right, So if you 748 00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,239 Speaker 1: look at the Turkish lira over five years is down 749 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:09,640 Speaker 1: whatever it is at this point. Um, other currencies are down, 750 00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:12,360 Speaker 1: you know, whatever amounts they're down Argentina's down more probably, 751 00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,800 Speaker 1: but that's all compared to the dollars. So you your theory, 752 00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,680 Speaker 1: the milkshake theory is always the dollars getting stronger, which 753 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,799 Speaker 1: it is right, um, but it's getting stronger to other currencies. 754 00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,440 Speaker 1: But if we look at the same five year period, 755 00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:31,120 Speaker 1: the dollars down to the SMP five D, it's down 756 00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:36,640 Speaker 1: forty percent to media in real estate since January. So 757 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:40,040 Speaker 1: the dollars getting stronger to currencies, but it's also getting 758 00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,719 Speaker 1: weaker two assets at the same time. How do you think, Well, 759 00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,160 Speaker 1: that's that's you know, that is kind of the theory. 760 00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,359 Speaker 1: You know, I have the dollar. Milkshake theory has never 761 00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,120 Speaker 1: said you should just buy dollars, leave it in cash 762 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:56,560 Speaker 1: and just sit there and buy everything when it's really cheap, right. 763 00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,560 Speaker 1: The theory has always been that we will ultimately get 764 00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:03,319 Speaker 1: into a situation where the US dollar and US dollar 765 00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:07,640 Speaker 1: denominated assets rise versus the rest of the world. So, um, 766 00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,120 Speaker 1: you know, I've always said that we'll get into a 767 00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 1: situation where we will have the dollar, gold, and the 768 00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:17,000 Speaker 1: Dow all rising together and I potentially US real estate too, 769 00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,879 Speaker 1: and you know, and that that is a situation where 770 00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:24,520 Speaker 1: maybe everybody's printing maybe maybe the whole world is doing QWI, 771 00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,920 Speaker 1: including the US. But all of that money that's being 772 00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 1: printed comes into the United States. It goes into stocks, 773 00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,239 Speaker 1: that goes into gold, it goes into houses, that goes 774 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,239 Speaker 1: into commercial real estate or land or whatever it is. Right, 775 00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 1: and so you get this situation where equities are going higher, 776 00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:41,680 Speaker 1: land is going higher, gold is going higher, the dollar 777 00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:46,120 Speaker 1: is going higher. Um, but those those assets are going 778 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,200 Speaker 1: higher versus the dollar, but the dollar is going higher 779 00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:53,239 Speaker 1: versus all the other currencies. So UM, I mean that 780 00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,040 Speaker 1: that's that's ultimately what the milkshake is. I don't think 781 00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,319 Speaker 1: that people should just be sitting in cash. So just 782 00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,560 Speaker 1: using the all or as your unit of account, your 783 00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,600 Speaker 1: measuring stick. Yeah, exactly, exactly in the US market as 784 00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:09,320 Speaker 1: your safe haven. Yeah. Alright to two more things I 785 00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:14,080 Speaker 1: wanted to talk about one. Uh man, Uh do you 786 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:15,879 Speaker 1: always see on Twitter people say I can't believe there's 787 00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,880 Speaker 1: app is free? Um? I would imagine, um, a lot 788 00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,520 Speaker 1: of people love you and Luke going back and forth. 789 00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:25,840 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's great, it's great. I know it's friendly. 790 00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,800 Speaker 1: Uh what would you say that you disagree on and 791 00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,399 Speaker 1: not who's right or wrong? But what do you think 792 00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:38,279 Speaker 1: is that main disagreement there? Well, the first thing I'll 793 00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:42,799 Speaker 1: say is for anybody who has anybody who's watching this 794 00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 1: and has seen Luke and I go back and forth 795 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:49,640 Speaker 1: on Twitter, Twitter, I think sometimes loses context. And when 796 00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:51,640 Speaker 1: Luke and I are going back and forth at each other, 797 00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,360 Speaker 1: I guarantee you he's trying to sing me, and I 798 00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,560 Speaker 1: guarantee you I'm trying to sing him. But what you 799 00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,040 Speaker 1: don't see is maybe we're smiling behind the screen. You know, 800 00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,120 Speaker 1: I not there like pounding the table saying I hate 801 00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:05,080 Speaker 1: Luke and he's really stupid. You know, he's a bad guy, 802 00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,600 Speaker 1: And that's why I'm responding, right, And so if it 803 00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,640 Speaker 1: comes across as mean on Twitter, I can absolutely guarantee 804 00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,719 Speaker 1: you it's not mean behind the scenes. But I will 805 00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,360 Speaker 1: also say that part of the reason that I have 806 00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:21,240 Speaker 1: pushed back as hard as I have against his views 807 00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 1: is because I think there's a lot of people who 808 00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:29,440 Speaker 1: will read his work and will say, Wow, that's really interesting, 809 00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:34,040 Speaker 1: that's really smart. I can see that plane out and 810 00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,560 Speaker 1: Luke says it in such a convincing way, in such 811 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:40,400 Speaker 1: a certain way that I think they they then assign 812 00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:44,440 Speaker 1: a higher probability of those things happening than I think deserve. 813 00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,960 Speaker 1: And I've seen this with retail investors before, where they 814 00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,440 Speaker 1: have a hunch and they buy a bunch right. And 815 00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:53,920 Speaker 1: so the reason I've pushed back as hard as I 816 00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,360 Speaker 1: have is I said, oh, hold on a minute, these 817 00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:01,200 Speaker 1: might be probabilities, or they might be possibility, they may 818 00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,600 Speaker 1: even be probabilities, but what you're talking about is not 819 00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:08,080 Speaker 1: necessarily a high probability. And so I don't think everybody 820 00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:10,600 Speaker 1: should run out sell all their dollars put it all 821 00:44:10,600 --> 00:44:13,920 Speaker 1: on something else, because I don't want people to get hurt. 822 00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:16,839 Speaker 1: And a part of the reason I've pushed I think 823 00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:19,000 Speaker 1: to us and I don't. I would say this if 824 00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,600 Speaker 1: Luke was here, and so if he disagrees with it, 825 00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,359 Speaker 1: If he hears us and he disagrees with this and 826 00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,000 Speaker 1: he wants to tell me that I'm wrong, that I 827 00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,960 Speaker 1: will absolutely accept that. But I tend to think that 828 00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,239 Speaker 1: Luke talks about the way he thinks things should be 829 00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:36,600 Speaker 1: or the way things could be, whereas I try to 830 00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,799 Speaker 1: take a more kind of real politic, hard nosed this 831 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,600 Speaker 1: is what's actually going to happen point of view, whether 832 00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,279 Speaker 1: I like it or not. But what What is that though? 833 00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:48,719 Speaker 1: Is that is that he thinks he thinks he thinks 834 00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,879 Speaker 1: like hard assets like gold, energy, and maybe bitcoin are 835 00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,359 Speaker 1: really going to move to the forefront, and currencies are 836 00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:57,280 Speaker 1: are being replaced. But you think that that's not happening 837 00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,399 Speaker 1: so fast. I think that I think that's not going 838 00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,160 Speaker 1: to happen. I think I think our system is in 839 00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,759 Speaker 1: real trouble. I think the powers that be will do 840 00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,440 Speaker 1: everything that they possibly can and use every tool and 841 00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:14,120 Speaker 1: deceitful method to defend it. Right, So I don't think 842 00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:18,239 Speaker 1: this movement to a non fiat hard asset system will 843 00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:22,680 Speaker 1: be as easy or smooth or as likely as as 844 00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:26,239 Speaker 1: I think he thinks if that does happen. If I 845 00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,880 Speaker 1: am wrong and that does happen, I think that the 846 00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:31,839 Speaker 1: US has a better portfolio of hard assets than any 847 00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,320 Speaker 1: country in the world. Now, sure there's a few others 848 00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,520 Speaker 1: that have good portfolios as well, but if you're taking 849 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,920 Speaker 1: just hard assets and real goods and all of that 850 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,080 Speaker 1: stuff put together, I don't think if I had my 851 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,160 Speaker 1: choice out of all the countries, I would choose the 852 00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,200 Speaker 1: United States in that type of an environment. So, even 853 00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,640 Speaker 1: if he is correct on that, I don't think that 854 00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:54,160 Speaker 1: necessarily a bad thing for the United States. UM. And 855 00:45:54,200 --> 00:45:57,960 Speaker 1: then I think the other thing is that, UM, some 856 00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:04,160 Speaker 1: of these geopolitical realignments that he has spoken about being possible. 857 00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,560 Speaker 1: Of course, anything is possible. But the idea that the 858 00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:11,440 Speaker 1: Europe was going to just give up on it's decades 859 00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:16,279 Speaker 1: old relationship with the United States and their defense umbrella 860 00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 1: of NATO and all of these longstanding institutional relationships and 861 00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:26,120 Speaker 1: side with Russia over the United States, to me, while 862 00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,120 Speaker 1: maybe it made sense from an energy perspective, just wasn't 863 00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,760 Speaker 1: going to happen. And so that's probably why I pushed 864 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:34,880 Speaker 1: back on stuff like that as as hard as I do. 865 00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:39,120 Speaker 1: I mean, these these things, these things that that we're 866 00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:42,600 Speaker 1: talking about changing, they may very well change, and I 867 00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,480 Speaker 1: think we're in the type of an environment where those 868 00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:47,720 Speaker 1: things can change, but they aren't going to change without 869 00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,759 Speaker 1: a lot of volatility. And when I say volatility, I 870 00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:56,239 Speaker 1: don't just mean economically, I mean economically, socially, militarily, all 871 00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:59,560 Speaker 1: of these different things. To me, this is this is 872 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,080 Speaker 1: the big, big game, right And what I mean by 873 00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,240 Speaker 1: that is, you know, we often when we're talking about 874 00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:07,680 Speaker 1: China and Russia and the United States and Europe, it's 875 00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,080 Speaker 1: always chess versus checkers, and I don't know, I think 876 00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,759 Speaker 1: that is the completely wrong analogy. I literally think this 877 00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:15,960 Speaker 1: is the game of thrones. I think this is you know, 878 00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,040 Speaker 1: this is all the big boys and girls are out 879 00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,840 Speaker 1: there and they're fighting for the top spot, and I 880 00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,400 Speaker 1: think they will use all the dirty tricks and methods 881 00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:27,920 Speaker 1: that they have at their disposal to do that. And 882 00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,239 Speaker 1: so regardless of whether and when I look back at 883 00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:33,680 Speaker 1: the last fifty years, whenever there's been a crisis, the 884 00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,759 Speaker 1: dollar has gotten stronger, I don't think it's different this time. 885 00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:39,360 Speaker 1: So I think when we get into this crisis, I 886 00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:41,360 Speaker 1: think that means the dollar rises. I don't think it 887 00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,080 Speaker 1: means it falls. And so that's I think that's that's 888 00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,560 Speaker 1: how I understand the difference. He might think differently, and 889 00:47:47,880 --> 00:47:50,080 Speaker 1: you know, there's no guarantee I'm right on this, but 890 00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:53,880 Speaker 1: I think he would say something similar. I think this 891 00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,319 Speaker 1: will go into the last last topic, but I think 892 00:47:56,480 --> 00:48:01,160 Speaker 1: it goes into time frames. So yeah, absolutely, no, no question. 893 00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,960 Speaker 1: A lot of times I see two people that completely 894 00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,040 Speaker 1: disagree at my at my at my conference, I had 895 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,760 Speaker 1: Stephen van Meter and Greg FoST there. One loves bonds 896 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:12,920 Speaker 1: and one hates bonds, but when you got them there together, 897 00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,640 Speaker 1: they actually agreed more than they did exactly. That's true. 898 00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:17,719 Speaker 1: I was there for that. I remember that you were there, right, 899 00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,000 Speaker 1: And so it's like, well, Stephen is talking about for 900 00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:21,839 Speaker 1: the short time frame. Greg's thinking of over a long 901 00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:23,799 Speaker 1: time frame, right, So a lot of it's that, but 902 00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,080 Speaker 1: I think, so let's let's talk about that a little bit. 903 00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,279 Speaker 1: So well, you know, just really before I forget, let 904 00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:29,759 Speaker 1: me let me make this point because this kind of 905 00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,120 Speaker 1: came up recently with Luke and I were talking back 906 00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,520 Speaker 1: and forth, and again, I kind of hate talking Luke 907 00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,680 Speaker 1: when he's not here. I like to kind of always 908 00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:38,320 Speaker 1: do it when the person is there. But I'm pretty 909 00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,719 Speaker 1: sure that we would have a similar conversation if we 910 00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:46,080 Speaker 1: were together. Is that, um, you know, the whole you know, 911 00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:50,879 Speaker 1: actually happening versus wanting it to happen. Right. I think 912 00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:54,960 Speaker 1: there's this. I think that there is this and I'm 913 00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:56,520 Speaker 1: not saying that this is for Luke, but I think 914 00:48:56,560 --> 00:49:00,319 Speaker 1: when Luke writes this stuff that you know, the U. 915 00:49:00,400 --> 00:49:03,000 Speaker 1: S isn't potentially in trouble for these things. To me, 916 00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,320 Speaker 1: there's this kind of this zeit geist in the United States. 917 00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,439 Speaker 1: And I call them the self loathing Americans, and that's 918 00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,360 Speaker 1: maybe a bad way to say it, but it's the 919 00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,200 Speaker 1: people who are woke enough to realize that maybe we're 920 00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:17,640 Speaker 1: not the best, you know, person or the best country 921 00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:20,719 Speaker 1: in the world, and maybe we've kind of overplayed our 922 00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:23,360 Speaker 1: role as the hedgeman, and maybe we're actually the cause 923 00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:26,040 Speaker 1: of a lot of these problems rather than the solver 924 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:27,839 Speaker 1: of a lot of these problems. And you know, we've 925 00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:29,840 Speaker 1: spent all this money, we can never pay it back. 926 00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:35,360 Speaker 1: And there's almost this there's this romantic version or idea 927 00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:38,000 Speaker 1: that the US needs to get what's coming to it right. 928 00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,560 Speaker 1: And so then when they when they see somebody write 929 00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,400 Speaker 1: something or say something that sounds like it's going to 930 00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,000 Speaker 1: be bad for the US, they want to latch onto 931 00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:49,239 Speaker 1: that because that's what they think needs to happen from 932 00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:53,759 Speaker 1: kind of this moral perspective and um and and as 933 00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,840 Speaker 1: a result, I think people will often ascribe a higher 934 00:49:56,880 --> 00:50:01,400 Speaker 1: probability to an event than the and is actually warranted. 935 00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:04,359 Speaker 1: Um And there was another point I was gonna make 936 00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:05,560 Speaker 1: on the end of that, and I can't remember what 937 00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:07,799 Speaker 1: it is now, but I agree with you. I mean, 938 00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,239 Speaker 1: I agree with all that all the stuff that we've 939 00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:12,400 Speaker 1: talked about, and I think, uh, um to it. You know, 940 00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:15,400 Speaker 1: America's hands down, no doubt about the best country in 941 00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,839 Speaker 1: the world still today. Now. Uh, the trajectory that we're 942 00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:25,480 Speaker 1: on is disappointing, but it's still America's to lose. We 943 00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:28,440 Speaker 1: have the land, we have the energy, we have the industry, 944 00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:30,840 Speaker 1: we have the creativity, we have the consumer base, we 945 00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,200 Speaker 1: have like we have everything. Um, it's our it's ours 946 00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,640 Speaker 1: to lose. Um, and so UM. You know, hopefully the 947 00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:40,879 Speaker 1: trajectory changes. UM. But uh so let's let's talk about 948 00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,239 Speaker 1: the time frame and base cases and we'll kind of 949 00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:46,520 Speaker 1: end it with that. But uh, you know, I like 950 00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:49,000 Speaker 1: that you talk like that. I think, yeah, And I 951 00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,640 Speaker 1: think that the whole time frame is the thing I think. 952 00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,640 Speaker 1: I think Luke and I probably agree that ultimately the 953 00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,080 Speaker 1: US is going to pay for all these PROFLI good, 954 00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:01,280 Speaker 1: you know endeavors Um. No, but he stays on top forever. 955 00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:04,520 Speaker 1: Everything comes going to end. We all know that. UM. 956 00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,400 Speaker 1: But the timing I think is much different. UM. I 957 00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:12,040 Speaker 1: happen to think. I think he thinks it comes much earlier. UM. 958 00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:15,160 Speaker 1: I think it comes much later. And I think that 959 00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:19,640 Speaker 1: if it does happen. Um, it won't necessarily happen in 960 00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,479 Speaker 1: the way he thinks it will happen. Well, I tend 961 00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,520 Speaker 1: to think I tend to think that the next system 962 00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:30,680 Speaker 1: will be another fiance system. I think that and my fear, 963 00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:35,799 Speaker 1: this is my fear. My fear is that you know, 964 00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,360 Speaker 1: we are going to have some kind of military conflict 965 00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,680 Speaker 1: that will resolve this, and whoever is the winner of 966 00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:47,520 Speaker 1: that military conflict will not necessarily see the world as 967 00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:50,279 Speaker 1: a place that they want to treat very nicely. They 968 00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:52,840 Speaker 1: may want to treat it the way they think is 969 00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,320 Speaker 1: the best for them, right, And whether that's the US 970 00:51:55,760 --> 00:52:00,160 Speaker 1: or somebody else, I don't know, Um, but I I 971 00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:04,160 Speaker 1: I think that they would then institute a new you know, 972 00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:10,279 Speaker 1: Fiat standard or Fiat style system rather than going to 973 00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:12,960 Speaker 1: some kind of a free market bitcoin or gold or 974 00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:16,080 Speaker 1: some something else. I don't see somebody winning this big 975 00:52:16,560 --> 00:52:18,960 Speaker 1: battle and then just handing over the power to somebody else. 976 00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,960 Speaker 1: That very very rarely happens. Let's let's back up just 977 00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:23,279 Speaker 1: a little bit and then we'll come back to that. 978 00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:25,880 Speaker 1: So earlier you had said, you know, how far can 979 00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,960 Speaker 1: to kick the can down the road? You maybe there's 980 00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:31,319 Speaker 1: another three five eight years, Like you don't know, right, 981 00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:35,560 Speaker 1: so three f eight years, Um, it seems like right now, 982 00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,800 Speaker 1: the FED keeps saying we're gonna crush inflation and crush inflation, 983 00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,279 Speaker 1: raise rates, raise, raise rates rates. But the markets are 984 00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:43,680 Speaker 1: almost like calling their bluff because they like, no, like, look, 985 00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:47,000 Speaker 1: you're only like, we know you're committed, but if the 986 00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:50,000 Speaker 1: whole system sees is up, you're gonna be forced to change. 987 00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:54,359 Speaker 1: So will the market sees up before the Fed gets 988 00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:56,520 Speaker 1: inflation down? And so the markets are kind of calling 989 00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,680 Speaker 1: their bluff. Uh, this can is coming to this proverbial 990 00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,799 Speaker 1: and at some point I think you kind of said 991 00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,759 Speaker 1: the whole world too and quei together and everything got 992 00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,440 Speaker 1: melting up. So do you think this happens? You know, 993 00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:13,480 Speaker 1: maybe the FED hits that proverbial wall in the next 994 00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:18,000 Speaker 1: twelve months, then over the next five years we qui 995 00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:23,319 Speaker 1: meilt up together. Yeah, So I'll make a prediction. And 996 00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,160 Speaker 1: here's the funny thing is a lot of people say 997 00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:27,680 Speaker 1: you should never make predictions because you know, you get 998 00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:29,880 Speaker 1: that you can never get to get the time probabilities. 999 00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,880 Speaker 1: The thing is, I don't. I don't. The reason I 1000 00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:35,760 Speaker 1: don't mind making predictions is I don't mind being wrong. 1001 00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,719 Speaker 1: I mean the idea. I mean, our job is essentially 1002 00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,560 Speaker 1: to predict the future and then put assets in a 1003 00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:44,239 Speaker 1: way that's gonna benefit from that. Right. I can't think 1004 00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:47,759 Speaker 1: of anything more arrogant than to think that you can 1005 00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:52,040 Speaker 1: predict the future with perfect accuracy. So if what I'll say, 1006 00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,600 Speaker 1: what I think is gonna happen, and if it doesn't happen, 1007 00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,200 Speaker 1: that's gonna be funny. I I promise you I will 1008 00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:00,520 Speaker 1: get through it. But my my thought is that we 1009 00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:04,640 Speaker 1: will probably make a new low sometime in the first 1010 00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:08,200 Speaker 1: quarter of next year, and then after that, I think 1011 00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,960 Speaker 1: the FED will pivot and what what what exactly the 1012 00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:15,239 Speaker 1: pivot means whether they just slow hikes or stophikes or 1013 00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,720 Speaker 1: go back to I don't know, um, but I think 1014 00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:23,439 Speaker 1: a crisis will be required to pivot. I don't think 1015 00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:27,160 Speaker 1: that they are going to pivot when inflation is still high, 1016 00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:31,080 Speaker 1: unemployment is still low, and asset prices are still higher 1017 00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,520 Speaker 1: than they were in March. I mean, that's what you 1018 00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:36,799 Speaker 1: got to remember, right, Like, markets are down anywhere from 1019 00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:41,719 Speaker 1: fift you know, this year, but they're still up from 1020 00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:45,640 Speaker 1: where they were two years ago. Right, So the fact 1021 00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:47,759 Speaker 1: that asset prices have come down a little bit. I 1022 00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,120 Speaker 1: don't think necessarily bothers the FEDS will the FED pivot. 1023 00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:54,840 Speaker 1: The FED will absolutely pivot, because that's their job. The 1024 00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:58,640 Speaker 1: whole reason the central banks are in existence is to 1025 00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:02,000 Speaker 1: step in and save the system when it comes under threat. 1026 00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:06,200 Speaker 1: But they're not necessarily put in position to save the 1027 00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:08,560 Speaker 1: market when it's not needed. And for all those reasons 1028 00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:10,520 Speaker 1: I talked about earlier, about him being embarrassed and they 1029 00:55:10,560 --> 00:55:13,160 Speaker 1: got inflation wrong, and they need to protect their reputation, 1030 00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:17,120 Speaker 1: I think necessitates the crisis before they come back in. 1031 00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:19,879 Speaker 1: And so you know, when I see markets the way 1032 00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:22,920 Speaker 1: they are up today, I understand why they're up, and 1033 00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:24,799 Speaker 1: it makes sense to me why they're up, But I 1034 00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,160 Speaker 1: don't think it's right. I don't. I don't think the 1035 00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:30,080 Speaker 1: markets making the right decision. I don't think that they 1036 00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:32,040 Speaker 1: I don't think the FED has already decided to pivot, 1037 00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:34,160 Speaker 1: and they're gonna pivot next week. Now. If they do, 1038 00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:37,120 Speaker 1: and I'm wrong, that'll be fine too, right, Like I'll 1039 00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:39,680 Speaker 1: just have to react to that and deal with it um. 1040 00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,839 Speaker 1: But I think your reason is, your reasoning is right. 1041 00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:46,080 Speaker 1: The timing could change, but at some point, yeah, yeah, exactly, 1042 00:55:46,120 --> 00:55:48,480 Speaker 1: and it could sooner than you think. It could break 1043 00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,200 Speaker 1: it next next month, Right, we could run out of 1044 00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,600 Speaker 1: thee who knows, right, so that you could easy, it 1045 00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:55,279 Speaker 1: could happen in two weeks. Right, could wake up one 1046 00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,680 Speaker 1: morning and you know something happened and now they have 1047 00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:00,400 Speaker 1: to go, you know, Mark, I mean, here's the amazing thing, right. 1048 00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:03,520 Speaker 1: I don't know if you were watching um the markets yesterday, 1049 00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:06,560 Speaker 1: but after the close yesterday Apple reported earnings and Amazon 1050 00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,200 Speaker 1: reported earnings and the you know, markets were down three 1051 00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:12,239 Speaker 1: or four percent and after hours and now today they're 1052 00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,840 Speaker 1: up two or three percent. So there's a seven points 1053 00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:18,360 Speaker 1: swing in less than twenty four hours. I mean, markets 1054 00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,239 Speaker 1: are just really psycho right now. And I think anybody 1055 00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:24,360 Speaker 1: who has certainty and what's going to happen is a 1056 00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:27,560 Speaker 1: fool because nothing is certain right now. So I want, 1057 00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:29,600 Speaker 1: I want to jump back to where we were so 1058 00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:32,440 Speaker 1: I get it. Man, timing is impossible, but I think 1059 00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:34,359 Speaker 1: the trigger points are right, and could it does happen 1060 00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:37,320 Speaker 1: next month or early next year, we don't know. But 1061 00:56:37,360 --> 00:56:39,160 Speaker 1: I want to jump back to the last part, which 1062 00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:43,600 Speaker 1: is UM which kind of shocked me. Uh is another 1063 00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,640 Speaker 1: Fiat system on the back and and and the reason 1064 00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,520 Speaker 1: why that kind of shocks me is there's a theory 1065 00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:51,839 Speaker 1: I forget the guy's name what it's under, but it's 1066 00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:55,160 Speaker 1: basically says that, oh, it's like the theory value of 1067 00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:57,879 Speaker 1: money or whatever, right where like um. So, like when 1068 00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:00,800 Speaker 1: Zimbabwe blows up their currency, they get a new currency 1069 00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,239 Speaker 1: that's pegged to the dollar again, and then they blowed 1070 00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:05,279 Speaker 1: up again, they repack it to the dollar. So they 1071 00:57:05,320 --> 00:57:07,080 Speaker 1: have to create a new currency. It has to be 1072 00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:11,200 Speaker 1: pegged to something of real value. Um. And the dollar 1073 00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:14,200 Speaker 1: was created based off of a peg to the gold value. 1074 00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:18,000 Speaker 1: So how do you create a new fiat currency that's 1075 00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:22,160 Speaker 1: not anchored to anything? Okay, So the way I would 1076 00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:27,160 Speaker 1: describe this is two things. Even if they don't peg 1077 00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:29,720 Speaker 1: the new fiat system to something, that doesn't mean that 1078 00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:31,919 Speaker 1: gold won't go to five thousand or ten thousand dollars. 1079 00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,080 Speaker 1: So I'm a huge gold bowl long term. I think 1080 00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:37,680 Speaker 1: whatever the transition to a new system, I think we'll 1081 00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:40,520 Speaker 1: see gold be much much higher than it is today. 1082 00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:42,960 Speaker 1: So but that doesn't mean that it will be officially 1083 00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,720 Speaker 1: recognized as money. The other thing is it wouldn't shock 1084 00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:48,600 Speaker 1: me if they use gold as part of the new 1085 00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:51,280 Speaker 1: system or in some way use it to restore confidence 1086 00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:53,560 Speaker 1: in the short term. But I don't think we're going 1087 00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:57,160 Speaker 1: back to a to a situation where we will have 1088 00:57:57,200 --> 00:58:01,000 Speaker 1: a standard gold standard and it is used as the 1089 00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:04,200 Speaker 1: global money and the whole world just you know, agrees 1090 00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:07,960 Speaker 1: to it. Um. I think if anything was chosen that 1091 00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:09,840 Speaker 1: the whole world would accept, it would be gold. But 1092 00:58:09,880 --> 00:58:13,200 Speaker 1: I just don't think whoever wins this grand battle um 1093 00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:15,560 Speaker 1: is going to do that. The other thing I would 1094 00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,760 Speaker 1: say is it doesn't have to make sense for something 1095 00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:23,600 Speaker 1: to last. And what I will use as an example is, um, 1096 00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:28,360 Speaker 1: you know, the Russian ruble after the World War Two, Right, Um, 1097 00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,800 Speaker 1: the Russian ruble and the Russian of the whole Soviet economy, Um, 1098 00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:34,320 Speaker 1: from you know, nineteen forties to the nineteen nineties was 1099 00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:37,080 Speaker 1: nothing to be excited about. Right, didn't do a good 1100 00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:41,440 Speaker 1: job of protecting purchasing power, Their economy didn't thrive. Um. 1101 00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:45,680 Speaker 1: There was no free market principles there that guided its 1102 00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,440 Speaker 1: value up or down. But yet it lasted for fifty 1103 00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:52,160 Speaker 1: years because the Communist party. So if your Communist party 1104 00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:54,880 Speaker 1: said this is the way we're going to do it, right, 1105 00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:57,760 Speaker 1: this is the rule, And if you don't follow the rules, 1106 00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:00,320 Speaker 1: you end up in Siberia working in a labor camp 1107 00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:04,720 Speaker 1: for four years. Um. And I've my fears is that 1108 00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:08,200 Speaker 1: that could happen again. Um again, I don't want that 1109 00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:10,080 Speaker 1: to happen. That's not what I would choose to do. 1110 00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:12,800 Speaker 1: But the idea that we're gonna have this big grand 1111 00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:14,760 Speaker 1: battle and then after that we're going to have peace, 1112 00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:18,240 Speaker 1: love and harmony. I I love the idea and I hope, 1113 00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:21,800 Speaker 1: I hope that that happens. But I'm a little skeptical. Well, 1114 00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:24,560 Speaker 1: I'm rooting for peace, love and harmony, but I am too, man, 1115 00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:29,720 Speaker 1: we'll do it together. Yeah, yeah, yeah, alright cool, um yeah. 1116 00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:36,880 Speaker 1: You know. The bitcoiners hope is that it places restraints. Right. So, um, 1117 00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:38,600 Speaker 1: if I was having a party at my house and 1118 00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:41,280 Speaker 1: I started kicking everybody out of my house party, Um, 1119 00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,600 Speaker 1: I've lost control over them. They've gone to start their 1120 00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:45,840 Speaker 1: own party and I no longer have control. And enough 1121 00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:48,280 Speaker 1: people opt out of That's what happened with the fall 1122 00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:51,160 Speaker 1: of the USS. Are enough people opted out of the economies, 1123 00:59:51,160 --> 00:59:53,640 Speaker 1: created black markets, parallel markets, and then the uss are 1124 00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:57,160 Speaker 1: lost control, which is why nations always imposed capital controls. 1125 00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:58,880 Speaker 1: At the very end, they have to keep people and 1126 00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:01,640 Speaker 1: that's why black markets of always existed. Right. Yeah, so 1127 01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:04,280 Speaker 1: it's like if, if, if, and and even we've seen 1128 01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:06,080 Speaker 1: Christine the Guard talk about that we have to close 1129 01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:09,240 Speaker 1: the exits, she says, And so if enough people can 1130 01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:12,320 Speaker 1: get out of their system and into a new system 1131 01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:15,000 Speaker 1: that they can't control, then they just lose control and 1132 01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:16,760 Speaker 1: they just there's no way to get now, throw out 1133 01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:18,880 Speaker 1: of a gun. Right, they have monopoly on violence, I 1134 01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:20,919 Speaker 1: suppose to your point, and people would say, don't don't 1135 01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,680 Speaker 1: underestimate the amount of violence they have. But I think 1136 01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:26,000 Speaker 1: that's that's the hope, is that maybe there's a way 1137 01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,400 Speaker 1: that people can go get into a new system that works, 1138 01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:32,520 Speaker 1: and uh, there's no threat of violence, but we'll see, 1139 01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:36,520 Speaker 1: we'll see. Um, well, we'll wrap it up with that. 1140 01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,960 Speaker 1: I know that was a long conversation. I appreciate it. Uh. 1141 01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:43,160 Speaker 1: I wanted to get into your musical chair analogy, which 1142 01:00:43,160 --> 01:00:44,600 Speaker 1: I thought was great. But you have it on your Twitter, 1143 01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:47,640 Speaker 1: So people should just go check out your Twitter um, 1144 01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:50,840 Speaker 1: which is still an anonymous account kind of by the way. 1145 01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:53,680 Speaker 1: You know, you don't have your face or your name 1146 01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:56,959 Speaker 1: on there, but Santiago Capital will make sure to link 1147 01:00:57,000 --> 01:01:00,920 Speaker 1: that in the show notes down below. Um, anything else 1148 01:01:00,960 --> 01:01:04,400 Speaker 1: that people should be aware of other than your Twitter No, 1149 01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:06,840 Speaker 1: I think you know just I I do a number 1150 01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:09,680 Speaker 1: of these type of podcasts. I always annoyed talking to you. Um, 1151 01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:11,600 Speaker 1: you know, I've I've talked about this stuff a lot, 1152 01:01:11,840 --> 01:01:15,960 Speaker 1: you know, at conferences, interviews, uh, podcasts. Um. If you 1153 01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,560 Speaker 1: go on Google or YouTube and you type in Santiago 1154 01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,880 Speaker 1: Capital or dollar milkshake at this point, there is a 1155 01:01:21,920 --> 01:01:24,160 Speaker 1: lot of links that will come up, and um, on 1156 01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:26,400 Speaker 1: my my pen tweet on Twitter has like a little 1157 01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:29,040 Speaker 1: five minutes summary that kind of explains it in more 1158 01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:32,280 Speaker 1: detail as well. But listen, I think that the thing 1159 01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:35,120 Speaker 1: that I always tell people is number one, don't worry 1160 01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:38,160 Speaker 1: about being wrong, because everybody's wrong. Um, nobody gets it 1161 01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,920 Speaker 1: always right. And the other thing is don't there's a 1162 01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:44,880 Speaker 1: difference between certainty and conviction. It's totally fine to have conviction, 1163 01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:47,400 Speaker 1: but don't have certainty on anything because this is gonna 1164 01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:50,640 Speaker 1: get really crazy. And the one once you're certain about something, 1165 01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:52,040 Speaker 1: you know you're about ready to get hit in the 1166 01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:54,920 Speaker 1: head because nothing is certain anyway. I'll just leave it 1167 01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,600 Speaker 1: with that, all right, brand, Thanks thanks for your time, 1168 01:01:57,600 --> 01:02:01,040 Speaker 1: appreciate it. All right, thanks man, all right, that's a rap. 1169 01:02:01,080 --> 01:02:04,200 Speaker 1: Hopefully you enjoyed that conversation with Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. 1170 01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:07,680 Speaker 1: Check them out on Twitter. Always insightful stuff. Man. We've 1171 01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:10,160 Speaker 1: covered a lot and hopefully I really want you to 1172 01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:13,400 Speaker 1: take away a couple of things. One, there is no 1173 01:02:13,520 --> 01:02:17,800 Speaker 1: such thing as certainties. There's only probabilities. As he said, 1174 01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:21,560 Speaker 1: we have convictions, and convictions are okay, but don't believe 1175 01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:23,600 Speaker 1: that things are certain. You need to be prepared for 1176 01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:26,439 Speaker 1: whatever is going to happen. Create your base case, set 1177 01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:29,880 Speaker 1: up your portfolio accordingly, and then always monitor the situation 1178 01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:32,320 Speaker 1: to understand when to pivot. Anyway, I'd love to hear 1179 01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:33,600 Speaker 1: what you think, and that's what I got to your 1180 01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:34,640 Speaker 1: success about