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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Day recurate podcast, available every morning

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Thursday, the

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Speaker 2: seventeenth of October here in London. I'm Caroline Hepkin, coming

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Speaker 2: up today. The market's very convinced. Billyanair investor Stan druck

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Speaker 2: and Miller weighs in on which way he thinks traders

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Speaker 2: are betting in the US election. The European Central Bank

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Speaker 2: looks set to lower interest rates for a second meeting

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Speaker 2: in a row. Plus why a spike in borrowing costs

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Speaker 2: is giving Italian wine producers an ugly hangover. We have

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Speaker 2: a special report. Let's start with a round up of

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Speaker 2: our top stories. Billionaire investor Stan Drouck and Miller says

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Speaker 2: that markets are pricing in a Donald Trump victory ahead

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Speaker 2: of next month's US presidential election. Speaking to Bloomberg, the

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Speaker 2: one time money manager for George Soros says that the

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Speaker 2: direction of trading has been clear.

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Speaker 3: Remember how right the market was on Ronald Reagan in

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty despite what the pundits were saying. And I

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Speaker 3: must say, in the last twelve days, the market and

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Speaker 3: the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is

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Speaker 3: going to end. You can see it in the bank stocks,

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Speaker 3: you can see it in crypto.

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Speaker 2: Stanley Jock and Miller, chairman and CEO of the Duquine

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Speaker 2: Family Office. Jock and Miller says that he won't be

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Speaker 2: voting for either Trump or Harris in November's election. The

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Speaker 2: billionaire's comments come as goldin sachs Is Trading Desk predicts

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Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred will end this year

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Speaker 2: well north of six thousand. The bank says that median

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Speaker 2: returns between the middle of October and December thirty first

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Speaker 2: in an election year in the US see returns of

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Speaker 2: just over seven percent, and so that would imply the

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred will reach six two hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy at the end of this year. The index

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Speaker 2: has already set forty six closing records so far in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. Now, the continued strength of the US

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Speaker 2: dock market comes as polls show a presidential race that

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Speaker 2: is consistently within the margin of era. Speaking to Fox

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Speaker 2: News yesterday, Vice President Komala Harris vowed that she would

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Speaker 2: be different from President Biden.

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Speaker 4: That me be very clear, my presidency will not be

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Speaker 4: a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency, and like every new

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Speaker 4: president that comes in to office, I will bring my

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Speaker 4: life experiences, my professional experiences, and fresh and new ideas.

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Speaker 2: Comla Harris speaking to Fox News's Special Report with Brett Baar,

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Speaker 2: with some testy exchanges during that conversation. It came as

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Speaker 2: Harris spent in the day trying to broaden her appeal

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Speaker 2: to conservative voters with an event featuring dozens of Republican

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Speaker 2: officials who have endorsed her campaign. Meanwhile, financial filings reveal

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Speaker 2: that Elon Musk has donated seventy five million dollars to

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Speaker 2: hear pro Trumps super Pack, with much of the money

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Speaker 2: being spent on get out the vote operations for the

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Speaker 2: Republican candidates. China will double its loans for unfinished properties

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Speaker 2: to five hundred and sixty two billion dollars. The government

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Speaker 2: is increasing its credit quota as part of a package

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Speaker 2: of measures announced by the Housing Minister Ni Hong and

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Speaker 2: other officials at a briefing today.

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Speaker 1: We, alongside colleagues from the Minister of Finance, Natural Resources,

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Speaker 1: to BBCN and NFRI, are acting very swiftly to focus

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Speaker 1: on the implementation and on new policies as well. A

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Speaker 1: raft of policies have been taken to stabilize the market.

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Speaker 2: Chinese Housing Minister Kniehong speaking there through a translator. The

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Speaker 2: change comes alongside news that the country's economy probably grew

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Speaker 2: at its weakest pace in six quarters. Economy is surveyed

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Speaker 2: by Bloomberg think that data that's due out on Friday

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Speaker 2: will show Theese economy expanded four and a half percent

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Speaker 2: in the third quarter compared to a year ago. The

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Speaker 2: figures highlight the weakness of the world's second biggest economy,

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Speaker 2: just before those policymakers unveiled that property market support now

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Speaker 2: to Europe. The ECB's Governing Council is expected to convene

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Speaker 2: later today and widely expected to cut interest rates for

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Speaker 2: a second consecutive meeting, just five weeks after the last reduction,

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Speaker 2: and list pell by Bloomberg unanimously predict a quarter point

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Speaker 2: reduction to three point twenty five percent. Speaking on the

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Speaker 2: eve of the gathering, the Central bank As President Christine

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Speaker 2: the Guard said the region should use geopolitical uncertainty to

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Speaker 2: strengthen its domestic market. Now the ECB's decision will be

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Speaker 2: announced at one fifteen European time. That's followed by the

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Speaker 2: press conference at one forty five. We will have live

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Speaker 2: coverage of the proceedings right here on Bloomberg Radio and television.

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Speaker 2: The the UK government could raise fifteen billion pounds per

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Speaker 2: year from the rich without causing an exodus. That's according

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Speaker 2: to research or two think tanks who are urging chance

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Speaker 2: of Rachel Reeves not to be deterred by lobbying. Nimesh Shah,

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Speaker 2: the chief executive of Blick Rothenberg, an accountancy firm that

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Speaker 2: specializes in advising wealthy clients. He disagrees with think tank,

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Speaker 2: saying that both non doms and entrepreneurs are weighing exits.

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Speaker 5: Since the General action over the summer, We've had really

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Speaker 5: two maybe three messages from Rachel Reeves and Kirstarmer saying

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Speaker 5: there's a twenty two billion black hole and the broader

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Speaker 5: shoulders will pick up the burden, and that has set

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Speaker 5: lots of hairs running.

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Speaker 2: Blick Rothenberg CEO Nimesh Shah speaking there, Rachel Reeves is

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Speaker 2: drawing up plans for as much as forty billion pounds

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Speaker 2: of tax rises and spending cuts in her budget as

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Speaker 2: she seeks to properly fund public services and balance the books.

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Speaker 2: In the UK, Wall Street's biggest banks are on track

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Speaker 2: for their best trading year since the Dodd Frank era,

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Speaker 2: and that has trade us hoping for bonuses. Morgan Stanley's

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Speaker 2: CEO Ted Pick to Old Bloomberg that the biggest trading

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Speaker 2: firms are outperforming their smaller rivals.

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Speaker 6: There's an element of the leaders pulling away from the

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Speaker 6: pack just because it costs a lot to run those

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Speaker 6: businesses every year.

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Speaker 2: Well, that was Ted Pick for Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley

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Speaker 2: just posted the best third quarter trading gain on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: The trend points towards the best year for pay since

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Speaker 2: big banks set revenue records, which was back in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one. That has some traders hoping now for double

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Speaker 2: digit percentage increases in their bonuses. Now in a moment,

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Speaker 2: I want to discuss the US election nerves rising in markets,

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Speaker 2: those comments from stan Druck and Miller, and that call

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Speaker 2: from Goldman Sachs. But first, the story that I read

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Speaker 2: this morning I thought was of interest. In the run

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Speaker 2: up to the UK budget, Under's luxury home sellers are

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Speaker 2: discounting the price of their homes for sale worried about

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Speaker 2: the tax implications from the budget. Research from Lanrez shows

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Speaker 2: that it's the very top end of the market that's

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Speaker 2: being most affected, that's homes over five million pounds. The

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Speaker 2: number of price reductions rose thirty nine percent between July

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Speaker 2: and September, partly down to this issue around non doms,

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Speaker 2: Lawnrez saying that compared to a month ago, the expected

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Speaker 2: tax changes though from the Chancellor, might seem less certain

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Speaker 2: to be introduced. I thought that was a really interesting

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Speaker 2: comment from Lonrez though, that actually the speculation around non

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Speaker 2: doms and are their issues like carried interest with private

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Speaker 2: equity and so on, look less certain. I think that

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Speaker 2: really plays into the interview with Nimesh Shah, the CEO

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Speaker 2: of Blick Rothenberg, that you heard earlier. You can hear

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Speaker 2: the full interview that Bloomberg's James Wilcock and I did

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Speaker 2: with Nimesh Shah yesterday because it's on the Bloomberg UK

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Speaker 2: Politics podcast. I hope that's something that you listening to.

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Speaker 2: Of course, it comes out daily fifteen minutes of a

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Speaker 2: UK political news. We really drilled down into that issue

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Speaker 2: around entrepreneurs around non doms with n MS yesterday. You know,

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Speaker 2: he was talking about the issues for non doms. Actually

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Speaker 2: something that you could trace all the way back in

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Speaker 2: his view to Brexit, that we were the envy of

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Speaker 2: the world, in his words, with our non domin corporate regime,

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Speaker 2: and now we've done a good job of tarnishing that reputation.

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Speaker 2: He had lots of interesting views anyway, that was something

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Speaker 2: that I read on the Bloomberg channel this morning in

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Speaker 2: terms of home prices, but also do download the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: UK politics podcast.

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Speaker 7: Bien in Air.

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Speaker 2: Investor Sandrack and Miller says that markets seem very convinced

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump will win the US presidential election and that

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Speaker 2: a Harris presidency would be bad for business, but he

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Speaker 2: won't be voting for either candidate. Joining me now to

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Speaker 2: discuss this and much more is Bloomberg's Markets to report

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Speaker 2: a valerie title high Valerie. So jockamners COM's they were

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Speaker 2: really interesting on the asset classes that he sees as

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Speaker 2: moving ahead of the election.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, interesting comments from him. Yesterday he said that you

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Speaker 6: could see the reflection of a Trump win in bank

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Speaker 6: stocks in crypto. Yes, those two assets have been performing

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Speaker 6: very well. But Caroline, the market consensus around a Trump

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Speaker 6: win would really be around the strong dollar, possible reignation

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Speaker 6: of inflation, so break evens going higher and treasury yields

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Speaker 6: going higher, especially in the long end due to all

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Speaker 6: this fiscal stimulus, possibly some regulatory easing coming from a

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Speaker 6: Republican sweep. So interesting that he's pointing out bank stocks

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Speaker 6: in crypto, where I think the market is a bit

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Speaker 6: more convince it'd be playing out in other asset classes.

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Speaker 2: Okay, maybe bigger asset classes. Election is often seen as

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Speaker 2: good for traders. Golbin Zachs pointing this out Scott Robner

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Speaker 2: his prediction for the markets. I mean, you've been talking

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Speaker 2: so much about the record highs.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I know, you know, forty six record high for

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Speaker 6: the SMP captured this week. It was interesting his comment

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Speaker 6: on election year, saying that the fourth quarter normally sees

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Speaker 6: a rally of over seven percent, which is above the

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Speaker 6: the I guess the average rally of the SMP over

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Speaker 6: that time on non election years. But he said something

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Speaker 6: else that I thought I found quite interesting, saying that

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Speaker 6: when implied volatility resets lower after the elections. So once

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Speaker 6: we get past the election, once we get past the

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Speaker 6: FED meeting, past the November payrolls, Yeah, there's not that

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Speaker 6: many more risk events on the horizon, so a possible

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Speaker 6: you know, if your assets you're holding are all of

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Speaker 6: a sudden less risky, you're more likely to add risk

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Speaker 6: and to buy into this rally. So possibly after we

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Speaker 6: get past all these risk events, you know, all this

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Speaker 6: money that had been sitting aside waiting for the election

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Speaker 6: to be over could be put to work. It could

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Speaker 6: be put in the equity market, and you know, perhaps

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Speaker 6: this fourth quarter would really see the SMP taking another

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Speaker 6: leap higher.

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Speaker 2: Okay, that's interesting. The other issue though, to factor into

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Speaker 2: all of this is the composition of the House and

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Speaker 2: Senate given you know, the election, that's going to be

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Speaker 2: crucial to what the president can.

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Speaker 6: Deliver exactly, and that would be very crucial for the

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Speaker 6: knee jerk reaction of markets the days after the election.

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Speaker 6: You know, the Democratic sweep is a bit less clear

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Speaker 6: for markets on how to trade that they're a bit

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Speaker 6: more concerned. If we get a Democratic sweep, maybe capital

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Speaker 6: gains taxes are increase. You know, that could maybe cause

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Speaker 6: treasuries to rally in the dollar to soften. Whereas the

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Speaker 6: Republicans sweep, if we get that on election night, that's

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Speaker 6: going to be the real knee jerk move for the markets.

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Speaker 6: You know, the dollar higher, Yeah, possibly see these long

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Speaker 6: end yields move, you know, I want to say drastically higher.

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Speaker 6: But let's see what happens. Yeah, and I point that

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Speaker 6: out because when Trump won in twenty sixteen, Yes, we

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Speaker 6: saw a five percent move in the dollar in the

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Speaker 6: days after the election, and we did see this long

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Speaker 6: end yields rising. They rose two thirty steepened nearly fifty

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Speaker 6: basis points in the days after the election.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, really very interesting. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: that update, Valuie title so with an I on the election,

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Speaker 2: which is only three weeks away in the US, Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Markets report of Valerie Titel. Now to our priority feature today,

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Speaker 2: which is about wine and how wine growing regions everywhere

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Speaker 2: from Bordeaux to Napa Valley and Italy's Lombardy region are

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Speaker 2: grappling with some immense challenges the changing climate, changing tastes,

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Speaker 2: and also tough financial conditions. Now Bloomberg's Julia Morpugo and

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Speaker 2: Antonio Vannuzzo have been touring vineyards and writing about why

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Speaker 2: Italian wine is leaving borrowers with a nasty hangover, Julia,

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Bloomberg Radio and thanks for your time. Now,

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Speaker 2: Italy is still the world's biggest wine export by volume.

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Speaker 2: How's it being impacted by climate change?

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Speaker 7: Yes, good morning, So definitely climate change is having a

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Speaker 7: big impact on one production. Last year's grape harvest was

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Speaker 7: the meagerist and seventy six years and this yer looks

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Speaker 7: only slightly better if you think about it. Climate change

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Speaker 7: is extreme weather. So you can have really really hot

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Speaker 7: days and even a drought, or you can have extreame

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Speaker 7: rain when it's not meant to rain that much, and

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Speaker 7: both are really bad for vineyards because in the case

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Speaker 7: of hot days, you've got dehydrated grapes and in that case,

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Speaker 7: not that many fruits can be produced. And in the

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Speaker 7: case of extreme rains, you've got potential fungi and that's

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Speaker 7: really bad for the plant as well. So yeah, there's

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Speaker 7: a whole new set of challenges that wine makers are

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Speaker 7: facing with climate change.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and our drinking habits of changing apparently too.

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Speaker 7: Yes, for sure. So yeah, for the older generations, you know,

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Speaker 7: wine was really the go to drink, but that's not

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Speaker 7: really the same with the younger crowd. You've got the

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Speaker 7: generation that, as the director of the Italian Wine Center

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Speaker 7: Italian One Union monitoring center puts it, picks is drink

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Speaker 7: based on the occasion. So you might go for drink

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Speaker 7: that's more like a beer, or you might go for

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Speaker 7: a gin and tonic, or to be honest, a lot

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Speaker 7: of people just decide not to drink altogether for health reasons.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so those are the kind of that's the backdrop.

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Speaker 2: And amidst this, you've been exploring the challenging financial conditions.

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Speaker 2: All of this isn't happening in a vacuum. You've seen

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Speaker 2: the financial struggles among wine makers. What are they saying.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, so obviously higher interest rates have really affected everyone,

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Speaker 7: including winemakers, and they're really feeling the burden of higher

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Speaker 7: interest costs. There's a study by an Italian consulting firm

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Speaker 7: which says that the negative impact of interest rates on

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Speaker 7: the revenues of wine makers has gone from zero point

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Speaker 7: ninety two percent two years ago to two twenty four

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Speaker 7: percent obviously in estimates this year. In just two years,

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Speaker 7: it's definitely like tripled. So you've got the extra financial

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Speaker 7: burden adding on to the issues that already exists for them.

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Speaker 7: And while for some means a reduction in profits. For

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Speaker 7: others which have piled on quite a bit of debt,

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Speaker 7: maybe to make extra investments, or maybe because their owners

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Speaker 7: are not as depocketed, that means that real trouble is brewing,

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Speaker 7: and some of them I've had to court and seek

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Speaker 7: core protection from creditors.

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