WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert Teeter & Dennis Gartman

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea,

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<v Speaker 1>the single best idea is to have a team that

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<v Speaker 1>works all weekend, shaping up Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and particularly

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<v Speaker 1>the difficult task is shaping up Monday Global Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you haven't lived it, maybe you think everybody's

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<v Speaker 1>off looking for a man in finance. Trust Fund six '

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<v Speaker 1>five blue eyed. That's a song right now, folks, for

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<v Speaker 1>those of you who are up in the zeitgeist with

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<v Speaker 1>after thought, I'm up on the zeitgeist. And if you're

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<v Speaker 1>not a man in finance, you're not out two days

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<v Speaker 1>in Hamptons or whatever partying. What you're doing is working

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<v Speaker 1>all weekend. And that's what we do at Bloomberg surveyll Let's. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>we do things as well, but we're always moving forward

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<v Speaker 1>to Monday morning and Spark conversation today was exceptionally good.

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<v Speaker 1>I really want to thank Derek Wallbank, who runs our

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore shop. He was in Delhi for the Indian elections.

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<v Speaker 1>It was one hundred and eleven degrees fahrenheit when he

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<v Speaker 1>came to us from our partially chilled offices in New Delhi,

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<v Speaker 1>and he was just brilliant on the heat way, the

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<v Speaker 1>excessive heat that we are seeing equatorial and of course

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<v Speaker 1>farther north than we could ever imagine out on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>live chat. Thank you, not equatorial heat, but to tom

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<v Speaker 1>soa Norway, which I didn't know existed. It's where you

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<v Speaker 1>go in Norway to ski jump and look at the

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<v Speaker 1>northern lights. It's way up. It's like sixty nine degrees latitude.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for listening to us and tom

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<v Speaker 1>So Norway this morning. One of the reasons people listen

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<v Speaker 1>is eclectic conversation on equities. Robert Teeter provides that he's

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<v Speaker 1>at Silvercrest. He's been doing this for decades. He knows

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<v Speaker 1>you have to be in the market to win in

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<v Speaker 1>the market. Here's Robert Teeter on the FED chat.

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<v Speaker 2>I was talking to some colleagues about this recently of

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<v Speaker 2>the you know the famous Greenspan quote, if you understood

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<v Speaker 2>what I said, you misunderstood me. And that makes for

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<v Speaker 2>a little easier environment in some ways, as opposed to

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<v Speaker 2>this absolute scrutiny on every single data point, and you

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<v Speaker 2>get a tense better or worse on CPI, and it

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<v Speaker 2>moves the market on the day. But really it's important

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<v Speaker 2>to look at those longer term trends and what's going on.

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<v Speaker 2>Inflation has been stuck for a while. Fed's on a

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<v Speaker 2>hard pause. So like you, I look to the earning side,

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<v Speaker 2>and there's just been a ton of progress on profit margins.

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<v Speaker 2>Looking back from COVID till now, you've had revenues in

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<v Speaker 2>the s and P up about thirty percent and headcount

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<v Speaker 2>up only about eight percent. You're starting to see some

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<v Speaker 2>progress on the margin front that I think was unanticipated.

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<v Speaker 1>There's the best comparing contrast of the morning. They're the

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<v Speaker 1>thirty percent versus eight percent. That's what we try to do.

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<v Speaker 1>Comparing contrast is I'm going to steal it from the

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<v Speaker 1>Chartered Financial Analyst Institute of Virginia, the CFA program. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>very proud to say I'm a member of the CFA Cadre.

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<v Speaker 1>And basically, folks, one statistic, thirty percent is of you

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<v Speaker 1>little value. You've got to compare it to someone. So

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<v Speaker 1>always what you see in the game is compare and

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<v Speaker 1>contrast and their teeter comparing on our prosperity thirty percent

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<v Speaker 1>profit growth versus eight percent labor growth as well. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the ideas he sees for stable, if not improving margins.

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<v Speaker 1>We stopped buy and it's not every ninety days. He's

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<v Speaker 1>in retirement, out on golf courses, but he's still very

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<v Speaker 1>much watching the markets and sends out private notes. Dennis

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<v Speaker 1>Gartman is the Pinnata of the equity market. People love

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<v Speaker 1>to jump on him. He's made clear he's missed the

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<v Speaker 1>equity market. We talked about that, but what we really

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<v Speaker 1>talked about is truly one of his great iconic trades.

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<v Speaker 1>The only one I know with any equivalency to this

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<v Speaker 1>was David Malpass at bear Stearns years ago, which is

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<v Speaker 1>you buy gold, but do you own golden dollars or

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<v Speaker 1>do you short euros at the same time, or do

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<v Speaker 1>you short yen. Dennis Gartman's call of gold in yen

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<v Speaker 1>is stunning. I'm not going to go through the numbers now,

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<v Speaker 1>just because of the brevity of single best idea, but

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<v Speaker 1>all you got to know is he's been making twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent a year on this, out of the pandemic, and

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<v Speaker 1>even more solid, more stable as you go back farther.

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<v Speaker 1>It's truly one of the great trades of a lifetime.

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<v Speaker 1>Dennis Gartman gold in yen, Gartman reaffirms today on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>surveillance weekend. Let's listen.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll probably see the dollar versus remendye trade above eight,

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<v Speaker 3>maybe eight and a half over the course of the

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<v Speaker 3>next several years. But again, watch what happens to dollar

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<v Speaker 3>yen as we go through. If we go through and

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<v Speaker 3>I think we shall go through one sixty, the Banka

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<v Speaker 3>Japan will come in and intervene at one sixty again

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<v Speaker 3>trying to stem the dollar strength. They won't succeed. They

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<v Speaker 3>succeeded for about three days last time. They'll this time.

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<v Speaker 3>That'll be even less time for success. And oil trade

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<v Speaker 3>to one to seventy five very quickly. So he our

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<v Speaker 3>gold and yen terms has been a great trade. I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's going to continue to be a very good

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<v Speaker 3>trade for the coming several years, certainly for the coming

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<v Speaker 3>several months, no question about that.

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<v Speaker 1>So you own gold, and what do you own it in?

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<v Speaker 1>And if Japanese yen is weakening, gold does better relative

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<v Speaker 1>if you own it in the US dollars. That's basically

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<v Speaker 1>how the trade goes. Maybe don't do this at home,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's what pro's like, Dennis Gartman. Look at all

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<v Speaker 1>I can say is everything done. It's been an extraordinary trade. Gartman,

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<v Speaker 1>who's been doing commodities since time began. I think Erico's

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<v Speaker 1>before Nixon was president. I think you've got to go

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<v Speaker 1>back to John Tyler to capture the entire scope and

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<v Speaker 1>scale of Dennis Gartman. Think red wheat in Kansas. He's

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<v Speaker 1>not a gold bug. I mean this is very, very

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<v Speaker 1>different than being a gold bug. It's looking at some

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<v Speaker 1>of the great geopolitical changes out there, including Central bank

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<v Speaker 1>buying of gold. And also I should point out the

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<v Speaker 1>debt build up in the United States really front and

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<v Speaker 1>center down into the election as well. We're on Android,

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<v Speaker 1>We're on Apple CarPlay the Bloomberg Business app. It's free

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Search for Bloomberg Podcasts

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<v Speaker 1>out of YouTube, growing every day, and the live chat

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<v Speaker 1>is great. Good morning Mexico City, and good morning Tom.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know how to pronounce it. Thompson Norway Yah,

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<v Speaker 1>do you say yeah Norway? I don't know, says road trip.

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<v Speaker 1>It was fifty five degrees there. It's single best idea.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning,