1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:14,600
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea,

2
00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:16,880
Speaker 1: the single best idea is to have a team that

3
00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,800
Speaker 1: works all weekend, shaping up Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and particularly

4
00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:26,320
Speaker 1: the difficult task is shaping up Monday Global Wall Street.

5
00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,920
Speaker 1: And if you haven't lived it, maybe you think everybody's

6
00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:36,879
Speaker 1: off looking for a man in finance. Trust Fund six '

7
00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,760
Speaker 1: five blue eyed. That's a song right now, folks, for

8
00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:41,879
Speaker 1: those of you who are up in the zeitgeist with

9
00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,680
Speaker 1: after thought, I'm up on the zeitgeist. And if you're

10
00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,160
Speaker 1: not a man in finance, you're not out two days

11
00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,240
Speaker 1: in Hamptons or whatever partying. What you're doing is working

12
00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 1: all weekend. And that's what we do at Bloomberg surveyll Let's. Yes,

13
00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:57,320
Speaker 1: we do things as well, but we're always moving forward

14
00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 1: to Monday morning and Spark conversation today was exceptionally good.

15
00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,240
Speaker 1: I really want to thank Derek Wallbank, who runs our

16
00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:08,760
Speaker 1: Singapore shop. He was in Delhi for the Indian elections.

17
00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,600
Speaker 1: It was one hundred and eleven degrees fahrenheit when he

18
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:17,080
Speaker 1: came to us from our partially chilled offices in New Delhi,

19
00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:19,760
Speaker 1: and he was just brilliant on the heat way, the

20
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,840
Speaker 1: excessive heat that we are seeing equatorial and of course

21
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,360
Speaker 1: farther north than we could ever imagine out on YouTube

22
00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:31,040
Speaker 1: live chat. Thank you, not equatorial heat, but to tom

23
00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,000
Speaker 1: soa Norway, which I didn't know existed. It's where you

24
00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,400
Speaker 1: go in Norway to ski jump and look at the

25
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 1: northern lights. It's way up. It's like sixty nine degrees latitude.

26
00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,319
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for listening to us and tom

27
00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,720
Speaker 1: So Norway this morning. One of the reasons people listen

28
00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:53,400
Speaker 1: is eclectic conversation on equities. Robert Teeter provides that he's

29
00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:57,000
Speaker 1: at Silvercrest. He's been doing this for decades. He knows

30
00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:58,680
Speaker 1: you have to be in the market to win in

31
00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:02,040
Speaker 1: the market. Here's Robert Teeter on the FED chat.

32
00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 2: I was talking to some colleagues about this recently of

33
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 2: the you know the famous Greenspan quote, if you understood

34
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,560
Speaker 2: what I said, you misunderstood me. And that makes for

35
00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,000
Speaker 2: a little easier environment in some ways, as opposed to

36
00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,720
Speaker 2: this absolute scrutiny on every single data point, and you

37
00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,280
Speaker 2: get a tense better or worse on CPI, and it

38
00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,720
Speaker 2: moves the market on the day. But really it's important

39
00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,640
Speaker 2: to look at those longer term trends and what's going on.

40
00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,720
Speaker 2: Inflation has been stuck for a while. Fed's on a

41
00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,440
Speaker 2: hard pause. So like you, I look to the earning side,

42
00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,160
Speaker 2: and there's just been a ton of progress on profit margins.

43
00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,280
Speaker 2: Looking back from COVID till now, you've had revenues in

44
00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,720
Speaker 2: the s and P up about thirty percent and headcount

45
00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,440
Speaker 2: up only about eight percent. You're starting to see some

46
00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,440
Speaker 2: progress on the margin front that I think was unanticipated.

47
00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,080
Speaker 1: There's the best comparing contrast of the morning. They're the

48
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,840
Speaker 1: thirty percent versus eight percent. That's what we try to do.

49
00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,519
Speaker 1: Comparing contrast is I'm going to steal it from the

50
00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:56,960
Speaker 1: Chartered Financial Analyst Institute of Virginia, the CFA program. I'm

51
00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,520
Speaker 1: very proud to say I'm a member of the CFA Cadre.

52
00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:05,880
Speaker 1: And basically, folks, one statistic, thirty percent is of you

53
00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:08,080
Speaker 1: little value. You've got to compare it to someone. So

54
00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,639
Speaker 1: always what you see in the game is compare and

55
00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 1: contrast and their teeter comparing on our prosperity thirty percent

56
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:18,080
Speaker 1: profit growth versus eight percent labor growth as well. One

57
00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:22,799
Speaker 1: of the ideas he sees for stable, if not improving margins.

58
00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,120
Speaker 1: We stopped buy and it's not every ninety days. He's

59
00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:28,600
Speaker 1: in retirement, out on golf courses, but he's still very

60
00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,240
Speaker 1: much watching the markets and sends out private notes. Dennis

61
00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,280
Speaker 1: Gartman is the Pinnata of the equity market. People love

62
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,320
Speaker 1: to jump on him. He's made clear he's missed the

63
00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,320
Speaker 1: equity market. We talked about that, but what we really

64
00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,640
Speaker 1: talked about is truly one of his great iconic trades.

65
00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 1: The only one I know with any equivalency to this

66
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 1: was David Malpass at bear Stearns years ago, which is

67
00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:57,280
Speaker 1: you buy gold, but do you own golden dollars or

68
00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,440
Speaker 1: do you short euros at the same time, or do

69
00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:04,680
Speaker 1: you short yen. Dennis Gartman's call of gold in yen

70
00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,040
Speaker 1: is stunning. I'm not going to go through the numbers now,

71
00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,680
Speaker 1: just because of the brevity of single best idea, but

72
00:04:10,760 --> 00:04:12,600
Speaker 1: all you got to know is he's been making twenty

73
00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,040
Speaker 1: percent a year on this, out of the pandemic, and

74
00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:18,360
Speaker 1: even more solid, more stable as you go back farther.

75
00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,919
Speaker 1: It's truly one of the great trades of a lifetime.

76
00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:27,799
Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman gold in yen, Gartman reaffirms today on Bloomberg

77
00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: surveillance weekend. Let's listen.

78
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,960
Speaker 3: We'll probably see the dollar versus remendye trade above eight,

79
00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:36,920
Speaker 3: maybe eight and a half over the course of the

80
00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,920
Speaker 3: next several years. But again, watch what happens to dollar

81
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 3: yen as we go through. If we go through and

82
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,919
Speaker 3: I think we shall go through one sixty, the Banka

83
00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,080
Speaker 3: Japan will come in and intervene at one sixty again

84
00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:51,240
Speaker 3: trying to stem the dollar strength. They won't succeed. They

85
00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,880
Speaker 3: succeeded for about three days last time. They'll this time.

86
00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,200
Speaker 3: That'll be even less time for success. And oil trade

87
00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,240
Speaker 3: to one to seventy five very quickly. So he our

88
00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,160
Speaker 3: gold and yen terms has been a great trade. I

89
00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:04,640
Speaker 3: think it's going to continue to be a very good

90
00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,640
Speaker 3: trade for the coming several years, certainly for the coming

91
00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 3: several months, no question about that.

92
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,080
Speaker 1: So you own gold, and what do you own it in?

93
00:05:12,560 --> 00:05:16,960
Speaker 1: And if Japanese yen is weakening, gold does better relative

94
00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,240
Speaker 1: if you own it in the US dollars. That's basically

95
00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,800
Speaker 1: how the trade goes. Maybe don't do this at home,

96
00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 1: but that's what pro's like, Dennis Gartman. Look at all

97
00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:31,000
Speaker 1: I can say is everything done. It's been an extraordinary trade. Gartman,

98
00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,760
Speaker 1: who's been doing commodities since time began. I think Erico's

99
00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,919
Speaker 1: before Nixon was president. I think you've got to go

100
00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,159
Speaker 1: back to John Tyler to capture the entire scope and

101
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,120
Speaker 1: scale of Dennis Gartman. Think red wheat in Kansas. He's

102
00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 1: not a gold bug. I mean this is very, very

103
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,400
Speaker 1: different than being a gold bug. It's looking at some

104
00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,560
Speaker 1: of the great geopolitical changes out there, including Central bank

105
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,120
Speaker 1: buying of gold. And also I should point out the

106
00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 1: debt build up in the United States really front and

107
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,320
Speaker 1: center down into the election as well. We're on Android,

108
00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,880
Speaker 1: We're on Apple CarPlay the Bloomberg Business app. It's free

109
00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:11,159
Speaker 1: on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. Search for Bloomberg Podcasts

110
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,280
Speaker 1: out of YouTube, growing every day, and the live chat

111
00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:18,920
Speaker 1: is great. Good morning Mexico City, and good morning Tom.

112
00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,680
Speaker 1: I don't know how to pronounce it. Thompson Norway Yah,

113
00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,159
Speaker 1: do you say yeah Norway? I don't know, says road trip.

114
00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,320
Speaker 1: It was fifty five degrees there. It's single best idea.

115
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:29,920
Speaker 1: Good morning,