1 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 1: global economy to you. But we've talked before about whether 3 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:20,040 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's trade warders could have any winners. In fact, 4 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: we're going to get an update later on one of 5 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: them Vietnam. But one clear loser has been Spanish olive farmers. 6 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: Their exports to the US were hit with a big 7 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 1: tariff last year. You probably didn't hear about it over 8 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: all the talk about trade wars with China and Mexico, 9 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: but it was very big news in southern Spain. Farmers 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: there are hurting from the tariff. But Europe's aluminium industry 11 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 1: is having a bumper year despite or even because of 12 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: U S tariffs in their sector. Later on, I'm going 13 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 1: to be discussing the many unintended consequences of Trump's trade 14 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: wars with Bloomberg's trades are Brendan Murray. I'll also be 15 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: asking Economics Executive editor Simon Kennedy how wish feel about 16 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: the political pressure being piled onto US Federal Reserve Chair 17 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: j Pow and many other central banks. But first, Jeanette 18 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: Newman from Bloomberg's Madrid bureau has this taste of southern Spain. 19 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: But really this is a bar in restaurant in southern Spain. 20 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: It's a local favorite called Casa Pedro. About twenty ham 21 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: legs hang on a wall behind the bar. Beneath the hammon, 22 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: a large earthenware pot is filled with olives, which the 23 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,839 Speaker 1: waiters scoop out and serve with a glass of beer 24 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: or wine. The restaurant is an agricultural town called puende 25 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: Hanel with a population of thirty thousand. While I wait 26 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: to meet the farmer all the interviewing, I start talking 27 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 1: with three men sitting nearby and asked them what they 28 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: think about the American tariffs on Spanish olives Atuna. One 29 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: of them is Jose Rome, a man in his late 30 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 1: sixties who grew up here. It's clear from our chat 31 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: that the tariffs are economically harmful, and they're also in 32 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 1: a front to a product that's a symbol of the 33 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: region and its culture and IMMAs Here in Andalusia, there 34 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: are a lot of areas where olives are the most 35 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: important agricultural product above everything else, and also our culture 36 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: revolves around the olive. It generates a lot of work 37 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: to harvest and produce and later consumed. I meet the 38 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: farmer Jose Luis. He says Trump's tariffs have caused his 39 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: profits to plunge by about one third. But for a 40 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: loser in the international trade wars, he certainly looks upbeat. 41 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,639 Speaker 1: He's thirty seven years old and tall, with a sunny 42 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: personality and easy smile. There is yeah, we have back. 43 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: We had to his farms driving through southern Spain's endless 44 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 1: horizon of olive trees. Olives are a huge industry in Spain. 45 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: The country is the world's top exporter of olive oil 46 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: and olives, but for years the olive industry in California 47 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: accused Spanish growers of selling on the cheap to win 48 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 1: market share in the US. Their complaints largely fell on 49 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 1: deaf ears until President Donald Trump tara tremendous tariffs high, 50 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: extremely high taramendously high tariffs. His administration slapped a thirty 51 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: five percent tariff on black Spanish table olives in August 52 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: two eighteen. We're talking about the black olives and Americans 53 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: love on their pizzas, salads, and nachos. Washington accused the 54 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: table olive industry of getting unfair subsidies from the Spanish 55 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: government and the European Union span shallive growers like Jos Luise, 56 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: we're furious. They say the US is just trying to 57 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: undermine a competitor. Everybody more than depressed, are angry because 58 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: they say, why for US? What we have to do 59 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 1: back offer a cheap product? Why only for the USA? 60 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 1: If it's to Russia, Okay, I understand the company so 61 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,559 Speaker 1: or if if we are to Cheeta but to China. 62 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: But for the USA, what we have to do back 63 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 1: offer product with boot price. European officials have taken the 64 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: tariff case to the World Trade Organization, but while that 65 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,239 Speaker 1: case slowly works its way through the courts, Jos Luis 66 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 1: and other farmers have seen their profits plummet. US imports 67 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: of Spanish table olives have fallen by around forty five 68 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: since the taribs were put in place. US buyers have 69 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: turned to other countries like Morocco and Egypt to fill 70 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: the void. Despite his frustration, Jose Luis remains hopeful that 71 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: the executives at the cooperative the biases all of will 72 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: eventually find new export markets beyond the US, or that 73 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: the tariffs will be lifted. As we drive on dirt 74 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: roads through his olive groves, Jose Luise tells me can't 75 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: do much to cut costs. He has to keep pruning 76 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: and tending his trees, otherwise they won't produce as many 77 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 1: olives in the future. If the tariffs remain in place 78 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: for several more years, though, Jose Luis says he will 79 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: have to replace his olive trees with other crops. But 80 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: if you had to move to almond trees or walnut trees, 81 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 1: that would mean ripping up by the roots these olive 82 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: trees that have been on your farm for forty years. 83 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: The end saying the thing my family, it doesn't pay 84 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: the bills. Spanish olive growers are also worried whether these 85 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: tariffs are the end of Trump's trade war with Spain 86 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: or just the beginning. I met Gabrieltre and Sado, head 87 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: of research for a Spanish agricultural cooperative group, at his 88 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 1: offices back in Madrid. Earlier this year, the Trump administration 89 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: said the EU was unfairly subsidizing air Bus, the maker 90 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: of big jets for many airlines. The administration threatened to 91 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: retaliate by hiking tariffs on all kinds of European exports, 92 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: such as you guessed it olive oil and all different 93 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: kinds of olives, not just table olives. We don't know 94 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: exactly how Trump is going to read on that, because 95 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: he has said a lot of things, but now he 96 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 1: has doing those things he has said two years ago. 97 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: So of course marketing will continue, but with one of 98 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: the bigger let's say players in the wall out of 99 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: the rules, so it's after it is quite big for 100 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 1: the time. So tariffs are bad news for Spain's olive producers, 101 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: which President Trump might say is good news for American 102 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: olive growers. But what's happening in the European aluminum market 103 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,119 Speaker 1: shows that in tariff battles it's not always so clear 104 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: cut who will be the loser and who will be 105 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: the winner. Trump also slapped tariffs on aluminum imports from Europe, 106 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: but instead of crushing profits, business with the US is booming. 107 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: What's going on It's a bit complicated. I spoke with 108 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: get Girtz, director General of European Aluminum an Industry Association 109 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: in Brussels, about the tariffs. First question, that's a negatively 110 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: affect the European aluminium trade? In the answers may be surprising, No, 111 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: um and and why is it because the export UM 112 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: to the US did not stop as the US UM 113 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: did not does not have enough domestic production for the 114 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: time being to satisfy the demand, so therefore continued to 115 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: import aluminium from from Europe, but but also from other 116 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: regions UM despite teriffs. It turns out that European exporters 117 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:08,559 Speaker 1: benefited because aluminum from China, another big producer, was also 118 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: being hit by Trump tariffs, and the Chinese aluminum had 119 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: become even more expensive than the metal from Europe. So 120 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 1: American demand for European aluminum surge, tariffs and all but 121 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: the Chinese pivoted and began to sell their products in Europe. 122 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: That's driven down prices in Europe. So the good times 123 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: might not last. It may be helpful and there are 124 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: some companies that have a have a nice extra market UM, 125 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: but on the mid term, long term UM, this will 126 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 1: change and we need to come back to the level 127 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: playing field. Both the winners and losers of Trump's trade 128 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: battle say they have learned a similar lesson. Washington isn't 129 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: a reliable partner. Tomas, an agricultural economist in Madrid, tells 130 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 1: a story about how even short term tradespats can have 131 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 1: long term and unforeseen consequences. In the nineteen seventies, the 132 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: US was the world's main producer of soybeans. When a 133 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 1: sudden shift in the market in nineteen seventy three caused 134 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 1: prices to surge, the US reacted by putting in place 135 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,800 Speaker 1: a temporary ban on its soybean exports. Even though the 136 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 1: band was short lived, countries that relied on American exports 137 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: were angry that suddenly they couldn't buy the soybeans they needed. 138 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: America's trading partners learned an important lesson Garcia, Scott says, 139 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: and took steps to make sure that their businesses wouldn't 140 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,079 Speaker 1: be thrown into turmoil again by a surprise US export ban. 141 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: All the rest of the world understood that the American 142 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: were not reliever. What the what the rest of the 143 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,839 Speaker 1: would have done. The Japanese, for instance, look at where 144 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,719 Speaker 1: where could I found another place to produce sociers. They 145 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: discover that in Latin America, in Brazil, in Argentina, there 146 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: were a wonderful a place where where they could they 147 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: could plan see you, and they finance the development of 148 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 1: the soya industry in all Latin America. Today, Latin America 149 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: is a major player of the market, so little by little, 150 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: over the next couple of decades, America began to lose 151 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: its near monopoly status in the soybean market. Economists say 152 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 1: we can also expect the tariffs on Spanish table olives 153 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: and European aluminum to have unexpected effects in those markets. 154 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 1: So while it seems like the tear of battles have 155 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: already been dragging on for a long time, it's fair 156 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,839 Speaker 1: to expect that Trump's trade policies are going to ripple 157 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: through the world in surprising ways for decades to come. 158 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: Trade is based on confidence. You are reliable. I round you, 159 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: you round me. I import from you, you import from me. 160 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: That is rules. We respect the rules. We don't change 161 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: the rule, understanding together, and so on. As soon as 162 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: you start changing the rules, this we left consequence for 163 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News and Janette Numan. So the lesson of that 164 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: report is the start of a trade war, it strikes me, 165 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: is a lot easier to predict than the end. And 166 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: if you decide to punish your trading partners for relying 167 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: on your goods, well, then you shouldn't be surprised if 168 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: they try very hard to avoid being in that position again. 169 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: So I wanted to broaden the discussion a bit, and 170 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: I've called in Brendan Murray. Bloomberg's trades are who we've 171 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: spoken to before. He has the job of pulling together 172 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 1: everything that's happening around the world with Donald Trump's trade wars. 173 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: Although we'll hear of it later. It's not just Donald 174 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: Trump who has been waging trade wars recently. And I 175 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: should say we're doing this by phone, so the quality 176 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 1: might not be up to our usual standards. And Brendan, 177 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: thank you very much for doing this. Um just remind 178 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 1: me we heard there from some Spanish producers and how 179 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: they've been affect did in different ways by American tariffs. 180 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: But that's olives an aluminium. But there are other threats 181 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: that President Trump has made which haven't gone anyway yet 182 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: on autos, for example. What's the state of play when 183 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 1: it comes to the White House versus Europe? Right, So 184 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: the US and the European trade negotiators haven't even really 185 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: started their talks yet. They're basically at a stalemate before 186 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: the before they've even started. Uh, the the US wants 187 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: agriculture to be part of the part of part of 188 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: the discussions, and Europe is saying no way, not when 189 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: we're not negotiating on on the agricultural industry. So what 190 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: the What the Trump administration has as as leverage over 191 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: Europeans is the threat of auto teriffs. Now, this is 192 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 1: basically the nuclear option when uh considering the German economy, 193 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: the French economy, the UK economy all tied into it 194 00:12:56,000 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 1: to a great extent to manufacturing automobiles and partic killers. 195 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: So this is the big unknown, and a lot of 196 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: economists are would expect the economic effects of that to 197 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: be to be fairly widespread and painful for for both 198 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 1: Europe and the US. Really, and we've had the economy, 199 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: our economists have gone into in great detail, particularly how 200 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: how German companies could be affected. But it does seem 201 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 1: like the President is wary of of pressing that nuclear button. 202 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: I mean, those tariffs have been delayed quite a few 203 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 1: times now, they have and and they're still they still 204 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:33,200 Speaker 1: could be a couple of months off yet. But he's 205 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 1: he's he's he's made a lot of threats with with 206 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: with these big kinds of tariff moves and not followed through. 207 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: So so there's no guarantee, but it definitely is the 208 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: big uncertainty hanging over really the European manufacturing industries and 209 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 1: and the US manufacturers as well. And we were as 210 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: we pulled together some of the stories for this chat, 211 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: I realized that we could probably have an entire series 212 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: of podcasts devoted to the unintended consequence of trade wars. 213 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: But while I was very struck with moving away from 214 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: Europe for a second, is we heard a bit about 215 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 1: the aluminium or aluminium story there from the standpoint of Spain. 216 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: But I was struck by a story we had that 217 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: the tariffs, the U S tarifs seemed to have actually 218 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: speeded up the decline of some of these old steel 219 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: mills in the US, which Donald Trump was saying he 220 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: wanted to help. How how does that work, Brendan, How 221 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 1: is it that the inefficient steel manufacturers in the US 222 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: have actually been damaged by tariffs? Well, what we're finding 223 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: out is that trade wars really create winners and losers. 224 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: And it's if you're if you're directing tariffs at an 225 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,200 Speaker 1: industry as specific as steel, uh, you know you're going 226 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: to create winners and losers within that industry, not just 227 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: you're not going to save the whole industry. So so 228 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: the weak ones have have have gone out of business essentially, 229 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: and and those jobs have gone away, and some of 230 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: them have the bigger, stronger ones have vibed and hired people, 231 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: but the net effect seems to be kind of a wash. 232 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: When you look at, you know, the overall attempt to 233 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: revive the American steel industry, it's it's it's not a 234 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: widespread success. And I was really struck by this because 235 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: I guess the dynamic is that the tariffs encouraged US 236 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 1: producers to crank up production, but at the same time 237 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: as actually we then saw global demand fall off, so 238 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: the price fell. So the old steel mills that were 239 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: not very profitable even at the higher prices that they're 240 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: now going faster out of business, even the ones that 241 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump might might have stood up in and said, oh, 242 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: I'm going to save those jobs. I was very strukely. 243 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: The U s U. S Steel Inc. Has lost seventy 244 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: of its value since the tariffs were announced. I mean 245 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 1: that is not really sounding like the Donald Trump playbook. Yeah, 246 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: when you start messing around with the forces are supplying 247 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: demand like that, you never really know what's how the 248 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: outcome is going to be. And I think that's that's 249 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: definitely played out in the in the American steel industry. 250 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: And it'll be interesting to see, of course, Pennsylvania and 251 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: Ohio or big or big states where you know, Donald 252 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: Trump depends on his political support, and these are also 253 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: big places where where steel is manufactured. So it'll be 254 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: interesting to see if the if that you know, those 255 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: kind of muted outcomes that he's seen, you know, play 256 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 1: a play into into the outcomes that he sees on 257 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: election day. No, I think that's right. So guess what 258 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: one thing that economists always say about trade wars that 259 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: you can have unintended consequences. Probably the other thing that's 260 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: the most common thing that economists say is that there 261 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: isn't there are no winners in trade wars, only losers, 262 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 1: but we should We tried to help the podcast listeners 263 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: a few months ago that there was a winner from 264 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's trade wars between China, which was Vietnam. And 265 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: we had a very interesting piece about how Vietnam producers 266 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: were benefiting from having some production pushed their way by 267 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 1: by the tariffs against China. People trying to get around 268 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: the tariffs. Now, of course it turns out that they're 269 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: also going to be slapped with tariffs by President Trump. 270 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: So what the White House noticed that Vietnam was doing 271 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: quite well out of these tariffs. Well, that's what the 272 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: White House does is notice trade surpluses, and Vietnam's swelled 273 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: to levels that got it noticed for all the wrong 274 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 1: reasons really, uh, and the Commerce Department recently just put 275 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: tariffs on certain Vietnamese products that it suspected were being 276 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: redirected from places like South Korea and Taiwan and trying 277 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 1: to get around the tariffs in China to the to 278 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: the disadvantage of US industry. So uh, yeah, Vietnam, you know, 279 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: had its had its run there as a winner, but 280 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 1: it quickly got got a wake up call that you know, 281 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 1: the US is watching and it and it watches trade surpluses, 282 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: and Vietnam's had swelled quite a good amount. And I 283 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: was quite struck. I mean, this is one of those 284 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 1: things where on the Bloomberg Tunnel you have is amazingly 285 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: named functions like this one called Ahoy, which tracks all 286 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: of the big containers ships traveling across the world and 287 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: what's inside them and where are they going, and we 288 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: had through one of those functions and something else we've 289 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 1: spotted that there was what was it was a six 290 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:11,560 Speaker 1: hundred and six hundred and fifty six percent jump in 291 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 1: solar cell imports from to the US from Vietnam relative 292 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: to a year ago. Basically, it looks like a lot 293 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: of the solar cells that were coming in from China 294 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: have just started going via Vietnam. I mean, we're not 295 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 1: completely sure, but that's what it looks like, yeah, exactly. 296 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: I mean one of the other industries that we've seen 297 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: affected a lot is electronics, and and uh, you know, 298 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: countries like Taiwan and South Korea are really disproportionately damaged 299 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: in situations like this. So the trade war is is 300 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: really creating a lot of distortions and and redirecting flows 301 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: that you know have been in place for years, and 302 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: particularly in Asia where supply chains are so integrated. So 303 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: there's a there's a lot of interesting things playing out 304 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: right now. And like you said, at the outset, it's 305 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: really too it's very difficult to predict where this is going. 306 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: And I guess we shouldn't end before mentioning that there's 307 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 1: a whole other trade wall that's that started in the 308 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: last in the last few days or last week between 309 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: Korea and Japan, which could end up having a much 310 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: more immediate effect on the semiconductor industry and some of 311 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 1: these crucial components which are in all of our iPhones 312 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: and laptops. So what's going on there? So Japan has 313 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: basically is threatening to impose export restrictions on certain products 314 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: that it sends to South Korea. South Korea needs these 315 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: products where its semiconductor industry, Samsung in particular and LG 316 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: TV screens really rely on these very high tech inputs, 317 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 1: and Japan is basically saying we're gonna We're gonna make 318 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,119 Speaker 1: it more difficult and expensive for you to get those products. Now, 319 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: a lot of people say this is in retaliation for 320 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 1: this generation's old dispute between Japan and Korea dating back 321 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,479 Speaker 1: to the colonization of the Korean peninsula. So what this 322 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 1: seems to be is a bit of this a creep 323 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: of the Trump strategy of you know, using trade tariffs, 324 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 1: export restrictions to achieve political goals, in this case, sort 325 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 1: of retaliation for Korea in this long running dispute. So 326 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 1: a lot of people we talked to See this is 327 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 1: a real kind of worrying sign when a country like Japan, 328 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 1: and you know, industrialized country that you know, espouses free 329 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: trade starts to start to throw tariffs and export restrictions 330 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: around for political reasons. So it's really something to watch. Yeah, 331 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 1: if we should remember that the numbers involved here it 332 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: could be pretty large. I mean, the two Korean companies 333 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: who have been most hammered by the Samsung and another 334 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 1: company that's less well known, I guess Heinix. They account 335 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: for six of the world's memory chip making capacity, so 336 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: that's they're sitting in all those iPhones and sitting in 337 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: a lot of of laptops. So this is one of 338 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 1: those funny ones we don't it's sort of come out 339 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: from left field. We're not it's the US measures that 340 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,760 Speaker 1: are in the headlines, but that we could end up 341 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: having an impact on the global economy. Absolutely, And these 342 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: two economies, South Korea and Japan are already being buffeted 343 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 1: by some damaging trade numbers from the U S. China dispute, 344 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 1: So if you get them going at it with tariffs 345 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: and export restrictions, they can take it to a whole 346 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 1: another level of of you know, economic damage. There are 347 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 1: so many signs to this to keep track of. We're 348 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: still going to be keeping our eye out for potential 349 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: other winners, unexpected winners from trade wars. I think Bangladesh 350 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: is now potentially on our list, And I guess we 351 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: should remind people that there is now a newsletter that 352 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: you're in charge of random which anyone can sign up for, 353 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: which allows you to keep tracks of some of these 354 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: that's right, It's called Terms of Trade. And we try 355 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: to take a look and pull together all these disparate 356 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: stories that are going on and try to connect all 357 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,800 Speaker 1: these dots to make sense of of what's really complicated 358 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 1: and difficult to follow story. But hopefully we can make it, uh, 359 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 1: you know, a lot more understandable, plenty of dots. Well, 360 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll be talking again, Brendan, but thanks very 361 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: much for that. Thanks. The former Governor of the Bank 362 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: of England, Irving King, used to say central bankers should 363 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: aim to be boring. We found out this week that 364 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 1: the next head of the European Central Bank isn't going 365 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 1: to be boring. It's going to be the first woman, 366 00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: Christine Leguard, now running the International Monetary Fund. But actually 367 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: most of the excitement recently around central bankers has not 368 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: been about anything they've done. It's been about pesky politicians 369 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: putting a lot of pressure on them and in some 370 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,880 Speaker 1: cases actually sacking them. Simon Kennedy runs all of our 371 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 1: economic reporters for Bloomberg. I wanted to talk to you 372 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: about it. Simon. Tell us what's happened in the last week. 373 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 1: I mean, we had a pretty what you might call 374 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: outrageous Donald Trump tweet about the Federal Reserve chair. But 375 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 1: on that same weekend you also had the Turkish central 376 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: banker being sacked. So yes, to two themes over the 377 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: last few days have come to a fresh peak. If 378 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: you were like Donald Trump again tweeting his disappointment in 379 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: a FED chairman Jerome Powell, who he of course appointed 380 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 1: to the job, suggesting the December rate hike that the 381 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,919 Speaker 1: Fed introduced should never have taken place. And then just 382 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 1: on the in the early hours of Saturday morning, you 383 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 1: have President in Turkey firing his central banker who has 384 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 1: has resisted cutting interest rates as as deeply as the 385 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,879 Speaker 1: President has wanted there. So both in those two stories 386 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 1: you have a real suggestion that the independence of central 387 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: banks is in question. I guess what was I mean? 388 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: The tweet said something like, our biggest problem is the 389 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. It doesn't have a clue. I guess. The 390 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 1: striking thing about both these cases although it's but they're 391 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 1: obviously the situation of the American Central Bank is very 392 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 1: different from the Turkish Central Bank, but neither of them 393 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 1: have caused a big market flutter. It seems to be. 394 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: You can imagine in the past, if there had really 395 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 1: been a question mark about the independence of the central bank, 396 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 1: you would have had at least bond investors react, And 397 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: we really haven't seen that much of that. You've seen 398 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,719 Speaker 1: that in the Lira, but in the US the market 399 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 1: kind of shrugged it off. Joone Pal's done a pretty 400 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: good job of communicating where he stands, just just today 401 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,920 Speaker 1: in testimony in Congress, talking about the importance of independence 402 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: but saying that that should be twinned with transparency, trying 403 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 1: to explain what the Federal Reserve is up to. But 404 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: at the same time, Donald Trump is a is probably 405 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 1: going to get his way, whether the feder acknowledges that 406 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 1: or not. The political pressure may not pay off, but 407 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: the economic pressure may pay off. With the Fed looking 408 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: to cut rates in July. I mean, that's what's quite 409 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 1: striking is that you have although the Federal Reserve Chairman 410 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: and others would would be very clear that they're still independent, 411 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: and they're not listening to them, not reading the tweets 412 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 1: or certainly not following following the advice. And I noticed 413 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:05,720 Speaker 1: that the FED chair in his statement to Congress had 414 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: not previously talked about the independence of the Central Bank, 415 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,280 Speaker 1: but has mentioned it repeatedly since February, which seems like 416 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 1: a bit of a reference to the tweets. But despite 417 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 1: all that, as you say, they have actually changed their 418 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 1: tune dramatically almost since the President started complaining about the 419 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: interest rate rises. So it's it's slightly awkward for FED. 420 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,400 Speaker 1: Do you think it loses a bit of credibility from 421 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 1: the perception that it might be reacting to him a 422 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 1: little bit? And Joachim Fells, a global strategist at PIMCO, 423 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,600 Speaker 1: made a similar point just the other day and saying 424 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 1: that the Fed's in a no win situation either it 425 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 1: cut rates and is viewed as has suggested that it's 426 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 1: it's it can bow to political pressure or at least 427 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 1: rates unchanged, and kind of stands tall against the White House, 428 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 1: but in doing so perhaps leaves the economy at risk. 429 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: So it's it's in a bit of a no win situation, 430 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: which which leaves j power to kind of maintain this 431 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 1: line that he'll do what's in the interest of the 432 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 1: of the U. S. Economy and repeat that he plans 433 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,760 Speaker 1: to stay the court. I was I was struck with 434 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: a very different perspective on this. I was just recently 435 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 1: got back from from Russia and there was a big 436 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: conference that the Bank of Russia was holding, and it 437 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,360 Speaker 1: was striking that there was a lot of concern there 438 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: that they all these conversations about oh, what should the 439 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve, shouldn't be so focused on inflation, and you know, 440 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 1: all the political pressure on the Federal Reserve and talk 441 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: about other central banks needing to be more focused on 442 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: growth and maybe even a bit less independent. That's bad 443 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,359 Speaker 1: news if you're the Russian Central Bank or any central 444 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 1: bank in an emerging market economy that's still fighting the 445 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: old battle, still has a fair bit of inflation to 446 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: deal with, and still has question marks about their independence. 447 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 1: But thanks Simon, I think we will no doubt be 448 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 1: hearing more from the Fed. And I hope more from you. 449 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: Thank you, m thanks for listening to Stephanomics. We'll be 450 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: back next week with more on the ground insight into 451 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: the global economy. In the meantime, you can find us 452 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,720 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app, or wherever you get 453 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 1: your podcasts. We'd love it if you took the time 454 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: to rate and review this show so it can reach 455 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: more people. And for more news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics, 456 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 1: you can also follow as Economics on Twitter and also 457 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:31,400 Speaker 1: find me on at my Stephanomics. This episode was reported 458 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: by Jeanette Newman and produced by Magnus Henderson and Scott Lamb. 459 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,959 Speaker 1: Special thanks to Brendan Murray, Simon Kennedy and Devin Leonard. 460 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,439 Speaker 1: Our executive producer is Scott Lamban, and the head of 461 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesca Levy.