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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host, JJ zachera.

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Speaker 2: Jj Zachers, what's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief over at number

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Speaker 1: fire dot com and this is episode twenty two of

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Speaker 1: the Late Round podcast, one of the many shows that

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Speaker 1: are part of the number fire podcast network.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in, guys, it happened.

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Speaker 1: As I've said time and time again, you don't listen

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Speaker 1: to this podcast for my hockey takes.

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Speaker 2: I get it, but let me just have this.

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Speaker 1: The Penguins are Stanley Cup champions once again, back to back,

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Speaker 1: two years, two Cups, and this guy, I'm pointing myself

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Speaker 1: right now, the host of the Late Round podcast, is very,

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Speaker 1: very happy. Being a fan is an incredible thing. The

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Speaker 1: bond you share with strangers, the ups and downs you

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Speaker 1: experience watching your favorite team. It's why people love sports.

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Speaker 1: And I think it's healthy for you guys to know me.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to take advice from me and listen

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Speaker 1: to me in a podcast form, why not know me

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Speaker 1: a little bit?

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Speaker 2: Why not know that despite not living there anymore.

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Speaker 1: I was born and raised in Pittsburgh, graduated from the

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Speaker 1: University of Pittsburgh, and am a full fledged Yinzer aside

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Speaker 1: from the fact that I don't have the standard Pittsburgh's accent,

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Speaker 1: and when you're from Pittsburgh, sports are a part of you.

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Speaker 1: Had I not been born there, who knows if my

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Speaker 1: love for sports would have led me to a job

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Speaker 1: in sports. I legitimately have no idea, because that's how

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Speaker 1: big of an influence and an impact that city made

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Speaker 1: on me. When I celebrate something like the Penguins winning

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Speaker 1: the Stanley Cup, people might not understand it, but being

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Speaker 1: a fan of that team is just part of who

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Speaker 1: I am, which is why I get excited and tweet

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Speaker 1: about my pants coming off when they score big goals

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Fandom, as long as there's perspective, and

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Speaker 1: that's really important here, is an amazing thing. And so

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Speaker 1: is being a fan of the Pittsburgh Penguins back to

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Speaker 1: back Stanley Cup champions. Let's get it whoo right right

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Speaker 1: back on topic here. Years ago, and I'm talking pre

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Speaker 1: Crosby era days, Football Guys owner Joe Brian created a

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Speaker 1: fantasy football draft system and strategy that's virtually used everywhere nowadays,

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Speaker 1: called value based drafting. As Joe wrote in its simplest form,

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Speaker 1: the value of a player is determined not by the

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Speaker 1: number of points he scores, but by how much he

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Speaker 1: outscores his peers at his particular position. Today, this is

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Speaker 1: something that a lot of fantasy owners immediately can comprehend.

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Speaker 1: But back when Joe wrote this, it was new, it

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Speaker 1: was a big deal, and the principles Joe wrote about

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Speaker 1: have given fantasy analysts an awesome blueprint to kind of

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Speaker 1: work off of. So when I talk about value based

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Speaker 1: drafting here or VBD, please understand that I'm not in

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Speaker 1: any way, shape or form ripping Joe, who's a really,

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Speaker 1: really awesome dude, one of the kindest human beings that

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Speaker 1: I have met in the fantasy football industry. I'm merely

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Speaker 1: taking the concept that he wrote about and explaining why

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Speaker 1: today I don't fully agree with it. And a lot

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Speaker 1: of you have asked me why I don't agree with it,

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Speaker 1: and it's really not just Joe here. There are value

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Speaker 1: over replacement players or VORP formulas everywhere in the fantasy

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Speaker 1: football world, and their jobs are to essentially try and

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Speaker 1: tell you who to pick and when to pick them.

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Speaker 1: We even have a formula on Number Fire that's VORP related.

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Speaker 1: But I don't really agree with them because they don't

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Speaker 1: really capture the human element of fantasy football.

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Speaker 2: Let me explain.

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Speaker 1: With a VORP formula, you're essentially taking projections and finding

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Speaker 1: the difference between a player's projected fantasy point total and

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Speaker 1: the projection for a replacement level player. And the key here,

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Speaker 1: obviously is that you're comparing within positions. So if Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers is projected to score four hundred points and a

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Speaker 1: replacement level player is projected to score three hundred, then

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has one hundred points in value. Meanwhile, if

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Speaker 1: Le'Veon Bell is projected for three hundred and fifty points

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Speaker 1: and a replacement level player at running back is projected

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Speaker 1: for three hundred, then Bell has fifty points in value.

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Speaker 1: As a result, if you're choosing between those players during

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Speaker 1: your draft, you'd hypothetically go for the guy who has

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Speaker 1: the largest point discrepancy between himself and the replacement level

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Speaker 1: player at his position. For the record, I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: that valueA drafters or vorpers are drafting like this. I'm

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Speaker 1: merely saying that this is the highest level logic of

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Speaker 1: a VORP type formula and how it works. But there

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Speaker 1: are four main issues when you draft this way. First

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Speaker 1: and probably most obvious. VORP needs correct projections. In the

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Speaker 1: first place, we know that we're not working with perfect

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Speaker 1: information and that our projections are going to be wrong,

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Speaker 1: and during a fantasy football draft, you should plan for

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Speaker 1: that variance. Sean Siegel talked about this aspect a lot

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Speaker 1: on the zero RB episode we did a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago. The zero RB strategy seems like an arrogant

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Speaker 1: one at the surface because it makes the assumption that

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Speaker 1: you're really good at finding running back value, but it's

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Speaker 1: actually the opposite. The idea surrounds the notion that we

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Speaker 1: get things wrong all the time, and we should play

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Speaker 1: into this fact by selecting a more predictable position and

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Speaker 1: one that doesn't get hurt as often. Projections are hard

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Speaker 1: to perfect, you guys, very very difficult, and drafting with

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Speaker 1: that as your backbone isn't going to fully capture the

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Speaker 1: true variance within the sport. And some of that variants

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Speaker 1: has to just do with luck, like injuries happening to players.

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Speaker 1: So even if your projections are really, really good, you're

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Speaker 1: still not capturing everything because it's impossible to capture everything.

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Speaker 1: That's number one, your projections might be wrong. Number two

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Speaker 1: on the list of why I'm not a VARp guy

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Speaker 1: is that choosing your baseline player to compare a player

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Speaker 1: to is going to be inconsistent. You can look at

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Speaker 1: baseline player in so many different ways. Do you look

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Speaker 1: at the number of players drafted at a particular position

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Speaker 1: in most drafts, or the quote worst hypothetical starter in

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Speaker 1: a league. The problem is that no matter how you

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Speaker 1: choose that baseline player for comparison, you're bound to have

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Speaker 1: errors in your VARp formula because not only is it subjective,

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Speaker 1: but you have to make sure that your baseline comparisons

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Speaker 1: also match across positions. For instance, let's say you choose

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Speaker 1: these baseline players by noting how many of each one

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Speaker 1: will be rostered in your twelve team league. Let's pretend

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Speaker 1: that means QB twenty is the baseline QB RB fifty

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Speaker 1: is the baseline running back, and wide receiver sixty five

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Speaker 1: is the baseline wide receiver. These are completely made up numbers,

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Speaker 1: but hear me out if you get one of those

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Speaker 1: wrong in comparison to another position. If your baseline player

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Speaker 1: for quarterback, let's say, should be QB thirty rather than

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Speaker 1: QB twenty, then all of a sudden, your VORP formula

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Speaker 1: is off, because if it's QB thirty and not QB twenty,

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Speaker 1: your quarterbacks are going to look more valuable in the

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Speaker 1: early rounds. Quarterbacks become more valuable because that baseline player

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Speaker 1: gets shifted down. So basically, what I'm saying is, thus far,

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Speaker 1: VORP is taking a high variance aspect of fantasy football

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Speaker 1: and projections and combining it with subjectivity and choosing the

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Speaker 1: baseline player for each position. Inherently, it's a hot mess.

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Speaker 1: But to add on to this, and this is number

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Speaker 1: three for those counting, it ignores cost. Now, Joe Brian

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Speaker 1: has amended his value based drafting idea to incorporate average

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Speaker 1: draft position, but VORP in general completely ignores cost. For instance,

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Speaker 1: let's say the difference between Aaron Rodgers and a baseline

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Speaker 1: quarterback is two hundred points. When you're looking to select

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, you might be looking at say Le'Veon Bell,

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Speaker 1: Le'Veon Bell to the replacement level baseline running back is

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Speaker 1: Let's pretend one hundred and eighty points. In that scenario,

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Speaker 1: VORP or VBD will tell you to pick Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 1: He's the better player because his point total is greater

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Speaker 1: to his baseline player than Le'veon's is to his. But

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Speaker 1: what if Aaron Rodgers baseline player is being drafted in

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Speaker 1: round ten while Le'Veon Bells is being drafted in a

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Speaker 1: round five. That means the two hundred points is essentially

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Speaker 1: being stretched through ten rounds and Bells is being stretched

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Speaker 1: through five, assuming that Bell and Rogers are first round picks,

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Speaker 1: So the opportunity cost in drafting Aaron Rodgers is greater.

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Speaker 1: You're foregoing the better asset when you pick Rogers strictly

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Speaker 1: because of market value and cost. And the other point

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Speaker 1: of this is that if your projections say a certain

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Speaker 1: player is really good and should be selected three or

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Speaker 1: four rounds higher than his average draft position, you're not

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Speaker 1: exactly maximizing value, despite the fact that value based drafting

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Speaker 1: is supposed to maximize value. If you're ignoring market value

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Speaker 1: when you're drafting and you're strictly drafting based on what

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Speaker 1: your projections say, you're not squeezing out all the value

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Speaker 1: you possibly can out of a player. Market value is

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Speaker 1: insanely important. I like Kareem Hunt this year. Why would

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Speaker 1: I draft Kareem Hunt in the third or fourth round

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Speaker 1: when I know that I can get him in the

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Speaker 1: seventh Why would I do that. The only reason I

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Speaker 1: would do that is because I'm overly confident in my projections,

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Speaker 1: and we know that projections will be wrong and that

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Speaker 1: there is variance in fantasy football. Market value is an incredibly,

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Speaker 1: incredibly important aspect to this stupid game that we love.

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Speaker 1: The last point I want to make is one that

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Speaker 1: I don't think is made enough. Fantasy points don't capture everything.

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Speaker 1: I know this probably sounds weird, but fantasy points aren't

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to the value of a fantasy

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Speaker 1: football asset.

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Speaker 2: How the player.

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Speaker 1: Accumulates those points is just as important. This falls into

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Speaker 1: the predictability aspect of the game that I always try

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Speaker 1: to preach. If a player, let's say, scores one hundred

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Speaker 1: points or is projected to score one hundred points and

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Speaker 1: he gets ninety of those one hundred points in one week,

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Speaker 1: depending on your team construction, he's not necessarily as valuable

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Speaker 1: as someone who scores ninety total points and gives you

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Speaker 1: twenty points in four separate weeks. Vorp Wise, the one

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Speaker 1: hundred point player is better, but your team may easily

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Speaker 1: dictate that the more consistent asset the ninety point player

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Speaker 1: is the better pick. A projection naturally does not tell

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Speaker 1: us everything. It's the end result, but not the journey.

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Speaker 1: On top of this, we know there is unquantifiable upside

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Speaker 1: within players. I just did a podcast on handcuffs where

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Speaker 1: I told you all that handcuffing is dumb. But I

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Speaker 1: do see handcuffing as a nice compliment to have within players,

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Speaker 1: as I noted on the show. So I'll draft Tevin Coleman,

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Speaker 1: for instance, because Tevin Coleman is good and my model

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Speaker 1: likes him. That's not really true. My model doesn't love him,

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Speaker 1: but I like examples, So I like Tevin Coleman. Let's

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Speaker 1: say I want to draft Tevin Coleman because he's good,

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Speaker 1: my model really likes Tevin Coleman. But we know that

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Speaker 1: Tevin Coleman's upside won't be captured with projections because his

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Speaker 1: upside hits if and when Devonte Freeman gets hurt a

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Speaker 1: fantasy point total. A fantasy point projection is not going

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Speaker 1: to capture that, and the basis of value over replacement

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Speaker 1: player drafting is based on fantasy point projections. It's based

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Speaker 1: on Fantasy point scored to be fair and clear. Though

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Speaker 1: like the ADP thing. VORP drafters recognize that deviating from

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Speaker 1: the plan and the strategy is an okay thing to do,

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Speaker 1: but at its core it's another flaw and value based

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Speaker 1: drafting and why I just don't agree with drafting in

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Speaker 1: that manner. So to recap the four reasons I can't

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Speaker 1: draft in a VBD way is because I know my

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Speaker 1: projections aren't going to be flawless. I know number two

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Speaker 1: that choosing a baseline player to compare a guy to

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Speaker 1: is subjective. Number three, I care about market value, and

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Speaker 1: number four, I know that there's more to a fantasy

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Speaker 1: football asset than simply looking at fantasy points scored.

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Speaker 2: But I can't stress this enough.

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Speaker 1: I don't think a VBD exercise is a bad one

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Speaker 1: to run through. It's good knowledge to have, and sometimes

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Speaker 1: players really jump out and you can find values in

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Speaker 1: that way.

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Speaker 2: I just can't back it as being the way to.

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Speaker 1: Draft as a lot of people do. That'll do it

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Speaker 1: for me, guys, Thanks as always for listening. If you're

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Speaker 1: not subscribed to this show, you can search for it

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Speaker 1: on iTunes, SoundCloud, Stitcher, and Google Play and it'll pop up.

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Speaker 1: And if you have any questions for this week's Mailbag episode,

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Speaker 1: which will drop Friday. Feel free to hit me up

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at late round QB, or email me at

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Speaker 1: jjat number fire dot com with your question. Take it easy, everyone,