WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 3 NFL Lines (Ep. 105) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:16.320 Hey there everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.320 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.119 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is 0:00:22.200 --> 0:00:25.720 time for an early look at the week three NFL lines. 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.040 Here with me to do that is our good friend 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:31.920 Andrew Kayley, Senior content producer over at Covers. Find him 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:35.560 on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That is c A. L. E. 0:00:35.720 --> 0:00:37.919 Y Andrew. It's a big day over there for you 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:39.960 in Canada. Thank you for taking time out of your 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:41.199 business schedule and joining me. 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:45.239 Yeah, we've got the Canadian federal election. For all of 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:49.400 us Blue Jays fan, every game is a nailbaitor at 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:52.479 this point, going down to the wire and Monday Night football, 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:54.240 it's there's a lot going on. 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:57.720 I totally knew it today was the federal election day 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:00.280 in Canada. Like, I don't know why you think that 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:02.480 I wouldn't know that or that I was completely shocked 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:04.760 when you came on and mentioned that I'm very into 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:08.319 Canadian politics. Don't worry, It'll be fine. But yes, obviously 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:10.360 you've got the Blue Jays. We're watching the game right now. 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.920 It is currently fourteen to seven lions. A little shocking 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:16.240 here what we've got, but we'll deal with that. That 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:18.800 might impact how we feel about this Green Bay line 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:20.600 for next week. But before we get into it again, 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:23.040 we're gonna go through every spread, every over under. We're 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:24.680 gonna see if there's value. Now we're going to talk 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:26.520 about whether or not we expect the line to move 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:28.480 all that good stuff. Before we get in a couple 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:30.480 of housekeeping things. First, let me tell you about the 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:32.960 latest offer from bet MGM for new customers. You bet 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:35.160 ten dollars on any event and you win one hundred 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:37.840 and fifty dollars in free bets when you use the 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:40.639 code Juice one hundred. Why is the code Juice one hundred. 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:43.240 That is from our other podcast which you should also 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.520 check out with Matt Prawl, called The Daily Juice. You 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.120 can find that wherever you want, so that is free money. 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:51.520 You bet ten dollars, you win one hundred and fifty 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:54.640 dollars in free bets regardless of the result. All of 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:58.280 the code Juice one hundred for new users. Second, we 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:00.720 are doing a giveaway. It's a signed to a Tongue 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:04.200 of Fi LOVEO giveaway that is unfortunate right now, obviously 0:02:04.440 --> 0:02:06.120 dealing with the bruise ribs, but you can still have 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:08.359 to signed. Jersey's still going to be amazing. Entry is 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:10.560 a very simple. Leave review for the podcast on Apple 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.240 podcast or Cashbox. Then go to Betting Pros dot com 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:15.679 slash review. That is it, And if you want three 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:18.240 times the entries, just subscribe to our Betting Pros YouTube 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:21.320 channel YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. Every Sunday morning 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:24.120 from eleven am Eastern to twelve pm Eastern, Matt Prout 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.840 and I go through every single game, give our best 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.800 bets and some player prop so you should go there again. 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:33.400 That's YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. All right, let's 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:35.320 get to the games, and let's start with the Thursday 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:39.079 night game. Here, Andrew, the Panthers are visiting the Texans. 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:43.239 The Texans are getting seven and a half points, and 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:46.040 the over under. Don't worry about it because I totally 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:48.079 switched to both my tabs to be on the spread. 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:50.760 The over under is for forty four. 0:02:50.800 --> 0:02:51.240 You've got it. 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:53.680 I'm saying you can host the show. My bad. I'm 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:54.520 all over the places. 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:54.720 You know. 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.680 We were talking right before, I had seventeen tabs open, 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:00.400 and I was losing it anyway. So that's what we got. 0:03:00.560 --> 0:03:03.760 Do you see any value in either of these numbers? 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.200 I'd have to say. With the Panthers right now, I 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.880 saw the line hit the board at seven. It's already 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:13.399 gone to seven and a half. Panthers have looked good 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:16.000 the first two weeks. The Sam Darnold haters, I know 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:18.160 you're a Jets fan. I haven't been on the way. 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:20.600 I'm not a hater though, I mean I feel bad 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:23.079 for him. I'm happy. I'm happy that he gets a 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:26.200 chance to show if he can be a competent NFL quarterback. Good, good, 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:28.160 good looking so far, you know, not that bad. 0:03:28.400 --> 0:03:31.320 I think Matt Rule has a big and Joe Brady 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:34.040 have a big, big part in the way he's looked 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:38.320 so far. They're very good head coach, offensive coordinator combo. 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:41.600 They went out there and they beat a Saints team. Well, 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:44.200 we're gonna find out, maybe this I was choking with 0:03:44.240 --> 0:03:46.440 you the other day, We're gonna find out if this 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:49.400 tanking Aaron Rodgers thing is real or not right, But 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:56.720 so call it. Maybe this is the win over the Saints. 0:03:56.760 --> 0:04:02.280 Isn't that impressive if the Packers are just tanking? But no. Now, 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:04.800 Davis Mills in at quarterback for the Texans. It looks 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:07.280 like the Texans. I'll give them credit to they they 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:10.120 did look better. I made a bet before the season 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:16.840 that they go on seventeen, except you have to sit 0:04:16.839 --> 0:04:18.840 there and look at it in your tickets for the 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:24.400 rest of the season. But no, they've they have some 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:27.640 veteran players there. I just don't know if they're going 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.120 to be able to do it against this line. And 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.240 these are going to be publicly bet games on Thursday nights, 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:35.480 when it's the only game on the board, the favorite 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.680 will probably see some action. You can maybe if you 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:43.120 like the dog, I'll wait a little longer until that 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:45.520 may be closer to kickoff, and maybe there'll be a 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.440 nice little middling opportunity for us here in this one. 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.000 Yeah, I don't. I don't see it getting back down 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.919 to seven. I mean, do you like? I just yeah, 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.720 I hit it when it was seven because I think 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:58.160 that that's I mean, look, you never know, right, I mean, 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.680 every NFL game, the worst NFL team still has premier 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.920 athletes at every position. Every team plays as hard as 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:08.400 I can. But Davis Mills is just not ready to 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:10.960 be an NFL quarterback that obviously wasn't really the plan. 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.760 This is where we find ourselves. So I agree if 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.760 you like the Panthers at this number, which is fine 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:19.400 if you do bet it now, because if not, it's 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:22.039 probably moving that the total. I mean, I don't know, man, 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:24.280 like I don't really a forty four like, I have 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:26.040 no idea if the Texans are going to be able 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.360 to put up any points whatsoever. So it's just something 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:30.599 where I'm not even getting involved at all with the total. 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:33.160 I would stay away. I was one of those victims 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:37.040 last week. I was for sure that that Washington Giants 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:38.880 game was going to go under forty and a half 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:41.679 and then they put up almost sixties. So this early 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:44.919 there have been some very I don't know what to 0:05:44.960 --> 0:05:49.839 say here, sobering, sobering results so far in the NFL 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:54.000 season through two weeks. So yeah, this one, it all 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:56.440 depends on if the Texans can score or not. I'm 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:58.520 not sure. I would probably stay away as well. 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.600 Totally stay away from me as well. What about the 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:03.679 Chargers visiting the Chiefs. This is a fascinating game, actually, 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:06.320 I'm really excited to watch it. Chiefs are laying six 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:09.200 and a half points and the total is fifty five 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:11.080 and a half, which I like now that the totals 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:13.920 are just like, look at just fifty five, fifty six, 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:16.040 no big deal, Like this is just every game right now? 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:17.600 What do you think here of these numbers. 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:21.240 It's a good example of what I was just saying 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:25.320 a moment ago. Last week, everybody was foreshore that Dallas 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:27.760 and San Diego was going to go over that total. 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:30.960 I think it was about fifty three, and everyone was 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:32.760 I talked to was on the over in that game, 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.760 and then we get forty points scored. Now that said, 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:38.560 there was some very questionable refereeing in that game, and 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:40.360 there was a bunch of points taking off the board 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:42.960 for the Chargers. I really like the way that Justin 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.680 Herbert has looked this year so far, especially finding that 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:49.200 connection with Mike Williams. He could be a big, a 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:54.120 big breakout star this year for the Chargers. But fifty 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:57.800 five is a big number, and it looks like it's 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.800 going to keep going up, so I'd probably wait, let 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.159 it go up. I could see myself teasing it down 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:04.600 in a bunch of teasers too, around to that fifties, yeah, 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:07.839 and maybe taking or sorry, teasing it up even higher 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:10.040 gets maybe gets up to fifty seven, and I'll maybe 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:12.080 tease it up to sixty three or something like that 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:13.720 and take the under there. 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:16.760 I just I can't I imagine there's gonna be scoring here. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.240 Like frankly, I don't think I would tease it up 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:21.160 and I because there would never there would be no 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:23.640 number that I would feel okay about, right and angry 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:25.480 Patrick Mahos game. By the way, I'm gonna let go 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.520 of the fact that you called them San Diego. Oh 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:32.040 you talk about by the way, I I it's remarkable, right, 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:34.640 you and I talk about like sports all day long, 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:36.960 whether it's betting for me, betting and fantasy and stuff 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:38.520 like that. And the other day I did a video 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:40.520 and I called them the Oakland Raiders. Like I just 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:41.920 some things you can't get out of your head. I 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:43.440 don't know. But anyway, I just want to make that clear. 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:45.200 We knew it. It was all for fun. Everything is 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:47.960 good anyway. Yeah, I agree that game sort of didn't 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.280 go as expected. I'm not going near forty five and 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:53.320 a half if anything, though, Like, there's there's not gonna 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:55.240 be Chiefs game where it's just gonna be like pitter 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:57.240 patter like there's gonna be a lot of scoring one 0:07:57.240 --> 0:07:59.240 way or another. So if anything I actually thought would 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:01.880 you said originally, would tease it down, I'd be almost 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:04.080 more apt to do. What about the spread six and 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:05.720 a half? Do you think this ends up here? Do 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:07.360 you think it moves one way or another? And do 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:08.640 you like it at that number at all? 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:13.080 So initially I want to say yes, I like getting 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:15.480 the Chiefs ad anything less than a touchdown, especially at home. 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.200 But they're just one in eight ats in their last 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.840 nine regular season games, and I don't know if that's 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:28.280 just they're usually I get they're either in spreads that 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:29.880 are too big and they get a little complacent at 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.640 the end, or they have games like they did against 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:36.680 the Ravens last week. It's an interesting number and I 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.040 don't know how to feel about them. I hate fading 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.320 Patrick Mahomes. I admittedly was on them last night. Three 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:44.080 and a half I thought was a great number, and 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:45.920 I turned off the TV for a little while when 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:48.439 they were off by about twelve or whatever they were, 0:08:48.480 --> 0:08:50.640 I thought it was over. And obviously that was not 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:54.680 the case. Laharjacks and the other plans, but I think 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:58.480 you'd have to lay the points with the or take 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:00.360 the points with the Chargers. At this point, I think 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:03.440 Justin Herbert is almost good enough. He's obviously not Patrick Mahomes, 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:05.760 but he can sling it just as bout as well 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.240 as anybody else in the NFL. And I like a 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:11.360 lot of these defenders on this Chargers team. If there's 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:13.480 someone that can cover some of these guys, it's guys 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:16.960 like Derwyn James and and Bosa is the type of 0:09:16.960 --> 0:09:18.960 guy that you can get some pressure on Mahomes, which 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:21.080 is the key to getting to them. 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.800 Yeah, the Chargers defense is very solid, and they usually 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.160 are before they eventually succumb to injuries like they do 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:28.559 every single year. But that's the thing, like, I mean, 0:09:28.679 --> 0:09:32.520 you know, I don't think the public generally really focuses 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:34.400 on the fact that as great as the Chiefs are, 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:36.920 as great as Mahomes is, they're not great against the spread. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:38.920 That's just, you know, not really what they do. So 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:41.040 it's six and a half. I mean, that's a great line. 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:44.960 That's because that's basically begging the public better to take 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:47.400 the Chiefs at this point. But it's just I bet 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:48.800 you it just hangs out there the whole time. I 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:49.920 don't think you need to make a move. 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:50.480 You like it. 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:52.199 Either way, it's probably going to stay there. I don't 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.120 see it getting up to seven. I don't see it 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.200 really going down. So he gets where it ends up. 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:59.920 It's probably a stay away from me, just because I'm terrified, basically, 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:05.200 what would say? How about the Jaguars hosting the Cardinals. 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:08.000 The Cardinals are laying seven and a half and the 0:10:08.040 --> 0:10:10.640 total is fifty two. 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:14.760 I really dislike the number. I dislike laying more than 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:19.560 a touchdown with a road team. But this Jaguars team, 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:23.800 I am. I am waiting for the Urban Meyer like 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:26.080 I'm just done with this press conference. 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:26.640 Yep. 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:29.720 I think they are one of the most underprepared teams 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:31.920 in the NFL. I've watched enough of the games the 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.160 last two weeks to say, like, they don't look competitive. 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:37.560 They just don't look like a competitive football team right now. 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:41.120 And then he goes out there last week and those 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.720 rumors about USC comes out, and he looks like my 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.360 kid when I've caught him doing something wrong. I see 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.160 the milk, there's the milk on the counter. Did you 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:55.800 spill that milk? No? No, Like I don't. It's a 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:58.880 really weird situation. I think Trevor Lawrence has shown some 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:02.520 potential for what he can be. I just I just 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:05.400 don't know if that's gonna be able to happen under 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:08.000 Urban Meyer. He hates giving James Robbinson the football. I'm 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:11.720 sure the fans, the fantasy pros, the nice game all like, 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.840 he is the most talented skill position player on that roster. 0:11:14.880 --> 0:11:18.240 Now Chanolt isn't getting involved. Brother, I just don't know 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:20.360 what they're doing there. So I'd have to I'd have 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.160 to take the points with the Cardinals, particularly just also 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:24.839 because the way the Cardinals have played through the first 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:26.920 two weeks, particularly Kyler Murray. 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:29.720 Yeah, this strikes me as a game that probably the 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.880 quote unquote sharp betters are going to hit the Jaguars 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:35.520 because I remember this with the Jets last year, where 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:37.880 you know, I try to, you know, talk to whoever 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:39.480 I know about and they would always be like, there's 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.120 value on the Jets on this number, and I would 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:43.920 just watch them and I'd be like, there's no value 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:47.160 on the Jets. Like I understand a system, right something 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.840 A professional better completely understand why a model says this 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:54.200 number is too good. But there are teams like the 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.200 Jets last year, and you're absolutely right with the Jaguars 0:11:57.240 --> 0:11:59.280 this year. And it's really because of the coaching staff. 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.679 You're absolutely right. I mean, this is as quickly as 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.600 I've ever seen basically everyone realized that a coach is 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:10.559 completely just mentally checked out in over his head, despised 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:13.760 by his own players. Like just everything is terrible. You 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:17.400 can't take the Jaguars no matter what it is. I 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.360 I'll probably fire on the Cardinals. It's not getting better. 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:24.360 It's not getting better. Get it now, yeah, get it 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.960 now because it's not getting better. But man, that is ugly. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:29.079 But yeah, it's a big line. I mean over touchdown there. 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:32.000 You know the books, it's very transparent what the books 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.320 are doing right now, Like it's very clear when they 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:35.880 want you to bet, where they want you to bet 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.320 and stuff like that, and people will so I agree, 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.200 all right, So you don't like road teams laying more 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:43.240 in a touchdown. You've got the Ravens then going to Detroit. 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.120 Who where This is the middle of the game as 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.040 I speak right now, it's a little less than a 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:51.000 minute left in halftime and the Lions are putting up 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:54.760 another competitive effort. The Ravens here are laying nine and 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:56.600 the total is forty nine and a half. Now, by 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:58.440 the time people listen to this, Andrew, it might be 0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:02.080 different because the Lions beat the Packers in this game, 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.200 maybe that Lion comes down a little bit. But for 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:06.439 now four nine and a half with the spread of 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:08.280 the Ravens as the road team LAYG nine. What do 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:08.680 you think. 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.800 I can't believe I'm saying this, but take the Lions 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:16.240 in the nine points. Like the the Ravens are coming 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:19.160 off a huge comeback win last night, they get that 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:21.600 even Lamar Jackson get that monkey off their back against 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:25.840 the Chiefs. So this is a as stereotypical of a 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:29.800 letdown spot as there could be for the Ravens, who, frankly, 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.480 if not for some crazy heroics from Lamar Jackson like 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.720 last night and a fumble, they don't win that game. Yeah, 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:38.000 they come into this game and they're one too probably, 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:42.800 and I just I just don't the Lions are playing well. 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:46.920 I still can't believe that. I'm sure Aaron Rodgers is 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:48.600 doing this just to mess with us all. This is 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.600 the this is the Aaron Rodgers experience for getting this year, 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:54.360 and it's gonna be an interesting one. But you can't 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.199 deny the Lions at least being competitive. Maybe that's a 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:01.880 that's the difference between a guy like Dan Campbell and 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.360 and Urban Meyer, Like this guy is gonna die for 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.000 this football team, and these players seem to put it 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:08.480 on the line for him, even if you think his 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:13.120 coaching strategies don't make any sense. But like the actual 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.200 x's and o's of Dan Campbell can be debated pretty 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:19.360 pretty easily, but those guys seem to play hard for him. 0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:21.920 So it's half the battle, man, Like, it's if you 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:23.960 want to, you know, live and die for your coach, 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.240 that is half the battle. There have been plenty of 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.840 coaches who aren't phenomenal, you know, x'es and o's type 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:31.680 of guys, but who their team goes out there and 0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.320 they don't give up. And again, you're right, this is 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.440 a great point because you we were joking again when 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:38.920 when we were trying to come up with a time 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:42.440 to record this podcast and we're going to our schedules, 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:43.360 and I was like, well, I mean we can do 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.600 it during Monday night football man, Like it's okay with me, 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:47.400 and you were like, yeah, I really want to see 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.280 whether or not Rogers is actually tanking, but I'm willing 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:53.040 to do it there. You know, I don't know, but 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.840 I think the Lions really do just you know, are 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:58.960 they play hard and they look okay. Jared Golf looks okay, 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.560 it looks fine right now at least, so whatever's going on, 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:03.040 I agree with you as right now you got to 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:04.920 take the points out. I'm interested to see if the 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:07.360 Lions win this game out of curiosity so you can predict, 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.160 because who knows exactly what's going to happen. If the 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:12.920 Lions win this game, what do you think that spread 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:14.560 goes to it's nine as we record this. 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.880 It'll probably approach seven and a half. I would say, yeah, 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:20.200 I think that would be the number. It kind of 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:21.160 lands on after that. 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:24.640 And well, I'm still saying that I expect the Packers 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:26.680 to pull this one out, so we'll see if that happens. 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:28.960 Let's go to another big one. It's a home team 0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.600 laying nine. It's the Bills laying nine to the Washington 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.120 football team. And the total is pretty low here at 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.240 forty six. What do you think? Uh? 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:39.120 I want to say over here, just because of how 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:44.200 impressive Josh Allen has looked, that offense has looked the defense. Obviously, 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:48.560 he threw up a shutout last week against Jacoby Brissett, right, 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:52.760 But and now they go against Taylor Heineke. But Kinekee 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:55.360 had his moments last week. That's against the Giants defense, 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:59.000 which is a little different obviously. Uh. But the thing 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:00.880 for me about why I like over I went in 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.520 with obviously some expectations surrounding this Washington football team defense, 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:08.960 and that just hasn't come to fruition at this point. Besides, Chase, like, 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:10.800 Chase Young is a freak and he's very good, and 0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:14.240 I expect that defensive line to be better. They've got 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:18.040 like that all SEC frontline, all first round guys, and 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.720 but they just were not getting enough pressure on Daniel Jones. Luckily, 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:25.480 it doesn't matter because Daniel Jones will sometimes just on 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:27.400 the run, he seems fine, but give him a clean 0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:32.320 pocket and overthrow a guy by five yards. But I 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:34.920 was I was shocked about how little pressure they were 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.680 they were getting on him when they needed it sort 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:42.720 of thing. And the secondary had its problems as well. 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:47.040 Landing Collins well, a great run stuffer, still has his 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:51.320 issues defending the deep ball. And Josh Allen's going to 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:52.680 be throwing some deep in this one. 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:56.040 So yeah, I agree with you. I don't have a 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:59.040 great feel for the spread. It seems a little high 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:02.080 to me. I mean, Washing put up points with Taylor 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:03.880 Heinege and the Bills. I know, again you mentioned it. 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:05.959 They pitched a shutout in the last game, and their 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.040 defense has look good, you know, look good against Pittsburgh 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.640 as well. But again, I think that's more on the 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:13.159 lack of offense of the two opposing teams, and it is 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:14.760 on their defense haartly. I mean, they have a great 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.000 pass defense and everything, but Washington is able to move 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.760 the ball and put up points. The Bills are as well. 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:23.960 Their offense hasn't looked great right now, but we know 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.359 what it can do. So at forty six, this is 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:30.040 a number i'd hammer immediately, actually right now. Like that, 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:31.720 I agree with you. The over is a play that 0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:34.040 I really like. I'd probably stay away from the spread 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:34.920 at least for right now. 0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:37.960 Ah, you agree, Yeah, I agree with that. 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:41.080 Browns are hosting the Bears. The Browns are a lot 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:43.000 of seven and a half point lines right now. The 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:46.280 Browns are seven and a half point favorites total forty 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:46.840 six and a half. 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.560 What do you think just we have the theme tonight, 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.159 it's just like, yeah, so the books clearly want us 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:54.320 to go take those points with the Bears there it 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.919 looks like. But I'm a big Justin Fields guy. He 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:02.680 was my leave second rated quarterback coming into this draft. 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:06.240 I think he has a very good potential. He obviously 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:10.159 had some jitters, some jitters in that game, but I 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:14.320 think that also comes partly because the Bears just have 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.399 been refusing to give him first team reps. And if 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:17.959 you give him some first team reps and give him 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.119 some real practice, then maybe he can maybe show what 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:24.639 he's more capable of. I guess I saw today. I 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:26.520 think you can correct me if I'm wrong. But Andy 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:30.000 Dalton is okay and he will be the starter if healthy. 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:34.359 Is that this is correct and he's okay and that 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:37.080 he doesn't have serious damage. But it doesn't mean that 0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:38.600 he's going to be able to start this week or 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:41.240 anything like that. But will they came out and said 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:43.560 he will be the starter when healthy, because why not? 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:48.719