WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 28th, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordert. Join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.760 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Geita Goberenath has been 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.879 Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund during one 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.000 of the most transformative economic periods in modern history, including 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.040 the pandemic, inflation, shock, and the push to de globalites. 0:00:47.120 --> 0:00:49.479 After seven years at the IMF, she's stepping down tomorrow 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:52.920 and joins us now for a final conversation. Geita, welcome 0:00:52.960 --> 0:00:55.120 back to Bloomberg Surveillance and thank you for sharing your 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:57.920 time with us this morning. Let's start there. Let's look 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.480 at your time at the International Monagery Fund. How much 0:01:00.520 --> 0:01:03.400 has changed over almost a decade. 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:06.080 Hi, and the pleasure to join you. 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:07.280 Pretty much. 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:11.440 I think everything has changed. I started at the IMF 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.640 in twenty nineteen and that feels like that was the 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:17.319 calm before the storm, and you had the pandemic, you 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:21.200 had war in Ukraine, and now geoeconomic fragmentation. I think 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:25.520 the global economic order is transforming in ways we haven't 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:29.800 seen in decades, and it's still highly unclear where the 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:33.560 global economy will settle. I think the second big difference 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.840 between twenty nineteen and now is on the fiscal front. 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.520 Death levels are incredibly high, they are ever increasing, and 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:42.480 while in the past you might have said, so what 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:45.679 markets will take it, that's not the case anymore, even 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.360 in advanced economies. You see that in France, the UK, 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.880 and also in terms of long eels in the US. 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.280 And I say that third big change is on technology. 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:57.560 AI over the last few years has certainly cut the 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:00.960 imagination of everybody, huge promise, the huge risks. 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:04.040 How has the IMF's for all changed during this period, 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:07.480 given that it was set up under a very different 0:02:07.520 --> 0:02:09.200 infrastructure at a time, and a lot of people are 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:12.359 saying we're now in the post Bretton Woods era. 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:19.720 The IMF has great experience dealing with turbulence. You know, 0:02:19.760 --> 0:02:21.480 there was a period when you had the end of 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:26.160 Breton Woods going off the fixed exchange rate to the 0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:30.000 dollar and the dollars to gold. That change happened and 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:33.440 the IMF adapted, and we are obviously now in a 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.680 world with big shifts in terms of how countries work 0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:40.600 with each other. The IMF has always functioned as trying 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:42.839 to do the art of the possible, which is due 0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:45.320 the best you can given the constraints, and done it 0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:48.440 very successfully. So if ever there was a time for 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:52.639 this institution, it's super important now. It has the ability 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:56.320 to bring different countries together around the table, good discussions 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:59.760 to happen on the in the economy, on the outlook. Again, 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:02.080 very vital institution for the world. 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:04.320 Do you see a risk that it doesn't survive though 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:07.799 at a time when funding is really in question, it's 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.880 a lot of major economies. We've seen China go it alone. 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:12.960 There have been questions about the United States. 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:18.720 Firstly, the IMFs funding structure doesn't rely on any budgetary 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:22.000 support from any country, so it's in a very strong 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:25.880 place because of that, and everything we've seen so far 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:31.120 points to all the members wanting the IMF to continue functioning. 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:31.320 As it has. 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:35.600 We work very closely with the US administration. That engagement 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.360 is going extremely well, but also the other one hundred 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:43.240 and ninety member countries that we have so as of now, 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:46.360 lots of support. Of course, the environment has changed and 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:48.400 the IMF is going to adapt to it in this 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:51.360 new geopolitical environment that we have, but it has a 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:53.760 lot of experience dealing with these kinds of events. 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.040 One thing that you've done during your tenure at the 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:59.120 IMF is really study the change in the geopolitical relationship. 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:02.040 You've talked a lot about that, including the reliance on 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.320 the dollar, and that's been a point of big speculation 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:07.680 of late in markets as well. How much you actually 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:12.800 seeing worldwide nations try to shift to alternatives from the 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.760 green back, this idea of insulating themselves from some of 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.239 the policy uncertainty that have made a lot of headlines 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:18.599 this year. 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:24.240 So we do see small shifts on the margin, right 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:27.960 We are seeing countries diversifying out of the US, but 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:31.520 again on the margin, because they were so exposed to 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:33.800 the US, several of them are hedging against a dollar risk. 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:34.760 We're seeing some of that. 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:37.800 Too, But I think the narrative that somehow something is 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.520 dramatically changed about the behavior of the dollar. 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:43.760 It's really too early. People point to the correlation. 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.960 Between what's happening with long term bond eels and the 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:49.159 strength of the dollar and saying, well, that's changed, and 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:50.719 therefore something has changed dramatically. 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:51.520 That's not the case. 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:55.040 We take long enough period, the relationship between the dollar 0:04:55.320 --> 0:04:58.479 and borrowing costs is you know, it can move in 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:01.720 different ways. So there's nothing unpre idented. But of course 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:04.720 these are still early days. We shall see where all 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:08.159 of the shifts in the global economic order are headed. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.880 And I think that's the source of tremendous uncertainty that's 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:12.280 still weighing on the world economy. 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:15.400 How much has any perceived loss of FED independence changed that? 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:18.520 And we've been talking about how there's this dissonance between 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:23.159 the commentary by a lot of analysts and economists about 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:25.520 the fear of some sort of loss of independence and 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:27.280 then a lack of market reaction that you would kind 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:29.360 of expect on the other side. Are you seeing any 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:31.799 shifts that maybe are less visible. 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:37.480 I think everybody agrees on this, would be markets and 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:44.000 economic professionals, policymakers. Everybody agrees that central bank independence is critical. 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:47.280 One tree policy independence is critical. So if we are 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:50.040 not seeing much market reaction, it must be that people 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:55.200 think that well, that independence is still intact, that independence 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.160 has been critical to bring down inflation from the high 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:02.320 levels we saw post pandemic inflation expectations were anchored because 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:03.520 of that, inflation came down. 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:04.480 So I don't think there's. 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:06.240 Any ibsence but about that. 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:11.160 It must be that everybody still believes that independence, especially 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:14.159 operational independence in terms of setting arntry policy rates, will 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:14.719 be maintained. 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.560 So you reject the idea that the market's just somehow 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:20.080 ignoring a reality or something like that. You think the 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:22.400 market's speaking and that we should listen to the market. 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:25.520 No, I just think that everybody at this point is 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:29.200 functioning on the fog of uncertainty. I mean, there's really 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:34.320 a lot of information thrown out there. Separating the week 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:36.600 from the chef. It's not that easy, and so I 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:40.240 think everybody is on wait and see mode. And right now, 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:42.359 at least, of course, I think that the markets are 0:06:42.640 --> 0:06:46.919 putting very very low probability on any big negative event. 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:50.200 That may be excessive. I think is more to worry 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:53.679 about than what the markets are showing right now. But again, 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:55.360 we should have to wait and see GATA. 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:56.880 Let's put some of these things together. 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.480 If you look at developments in the UK, in France, 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.560 the bil to address fiscal concerns and find that additional 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:05.799 fiscal space, the latest developments here in America as well, 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:08.479 are you witnessing Do you think we're witnessing a convergence 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.920 between the kind of dynamics we typically see an EM 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:15.120 with DM and do you think those terms are useful anymore? 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:16.240 In quite the same way. 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:21.920 I think we have certainly moved away from the case 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:27.120 of advanced economies. Rich economies can keep increasing their death 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.520 which is what's projected to happen, and there's not nouchu 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:33.680 to worry about. I think we certainly pass that major 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:37.760 economies are beginning to worry about what's happening to their eels. 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:40.360 You're seeing that it's a major concern France right now 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:44.160 as we speak. But even in the US long term 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:47.520 meals are basically back to PREGFC level. We are away 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.119 from that world of a big global savings glad, away 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.800 from that world of central banks buying large amounts of 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:58.120 government assets. So I think it would be really complacent 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:02.760 for any government, rich or poor to say that well, no, 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:05.840 our debt will always be bought. And I think one 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:07.600 point I want to make is that we talk about 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:11.320 resilience for the global economy, which has been really you know, 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:14.880 the positive of these last many years, despite all these shocks. 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:16.080 But we should. 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.680 Recognize that the reason we've seen resilience is because we 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.960 haven't had a financial crisis. Despite the pandemic, despite wards, 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:27.400 despite geoeconomic fragmentation, despite FED rates going up very sharply, 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.360 we've not had a financial crisis. That doesn't mean that 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:32.960 that will never happen. We have very high levels of 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:37.400 debt around the world. I think bond markets are in. 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:38.040 A fragile place. 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:42.600 You have valuations in equity markets that are sky high. 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.440 So I would say trede carefully because if you do 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:48.520 have a financial crisis, we know those the scarring that 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:50.400 comes from that is long lasting. 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.160 And when you talk about a financial crisis, some people 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:55.560 are wondering what can potentially trigger it. Are you saying 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:58.600 that the sovereign debt market of developed markets is of 0:08:58.640 --> 0:08:59.960 the greatest concern at this point? 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:03.160 I mean, usually when you get a financial crisis, it's 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.960 a combination of events that can trigger it, right, And 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:09.720 so if you have multiple markets that seem to be 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:13.160 in a vulnerable position. You could end up with a 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:15.600 negative event, right, and so the bond markets what you're 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:20.000 seeing with very high levels of debt fragility. Associated with 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:24.040 that equity valuations that are very high. Yes, there's a 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.520 promise that maybe AI will truly transform the world, but 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:29.599 as we know from the dot com bust, even a 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:32.280 technology like the Internet that did transform the world went 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:36.000 through a boom bus cycle. So that combination non bank 0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:40.840 financial institutions we've never had a crisis, well they've been 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:44.000 as large as they are right now. The amount of 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:48.719 corporate borrowing that's happening with nbfi's much higher than pre 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:52.880 twenty nineteen. So there's a lot that looks stretched at 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:55.719 this moment. And at the same time, I think the 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:58.920 world economy is gambling with all kinds of new policies. 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:04.520 So I would say trade carefully, make sure that financial 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:09.520 supervision and regulation is continued. See what needs to be 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:12.360 done with NBFI is what's the appropriate level of supervision 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:14.000 and regulation that's required over there. 0:10:14.360 --> 0:10:16.000 All of that is going to be very important. 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:18.760 So you're leaving the IMF and you're going back to 0:10:18.960 --> 0:10:22.600 Harvard A university that you've known very well, what are 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.319 you going to be doing there? And how important is 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:29.000 it for you to really get this sense back in 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:34.760 the economics profession of pure research and true rigor versus 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:36.880 some of the politicization that we've seen recently. 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:43.280 So I think the reason that the economics profession has 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:45.680 been able to contribute so well over these last few 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.640 years is because in the phase of unprecedented shocks, you 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:50.880 really need to go back to some of your training 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:52.880 to figure out how you're going to respond to a 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.280 pandemic that you haven't seen in one hundred years or 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:58.760 war in Europe, right, So having that base of knowledge 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:00.280 is very important. But at the same time, Hi, I 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:02.880 think the economics profession has to recognize that there is 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:07.760 something of a trust deficit, especially with mainstream economists, and 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:11.000 how do we get over that. There's broad consensus in 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:17.160 the economics profession that open trade, central bank independence super important. 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:18.040 Those are the crown. 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:22.040 Jewels for good economic policy, and yet the policy direction 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:24.760 is away from that. So I think there is absolutely 0:11:24.760 --> 0:11:27.800 some bit of soul searching, some bit of stepping back 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:30.240 and asking yourself, how do you solve this trust deficit? 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:32.640 How do you make sure this in this new world 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:35.520 of communication, that the good ideas still come true. 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:39.520 Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.640 Dan Ives, the global head of tech research of Wentburst, writing, 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:53.800 we view any declined and invidious stock to be a 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.680 clear buying opportunity as it remains the only game in 0:11:56.720 --> 0:12:01.160 town fueling this fourth Industrial revolution. On just now for more, Dan, 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.000 you sit in the headlines the boom is over. What's 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:04.040 the pushback this morning? 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:07.320 I think the booms just starting. I mean, if you 0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.000 look at these numbers, especially when you factor in what 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:12.920 China is going to be. I mean, you know Jensen 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:17.320 talked about fifty fifty percent type growth number, This just 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:21.600 shows the next stage of adoption is actually just starting. 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:23.880 I think, Look, I think the stock is green today. 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:26.880 By the end of the day, Dan, that's what you're saying. 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:28.280 You think that by the end of the day people 0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.080 will realize come around to your point of view that 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:35.240 actually what the disappointment was was a non inclusion of 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:39.480 any China sales, but a real robust growth elsewhere. 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:40.320 Is that your argument? 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.360 You just exactly like summarize it, because the reality is 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:46.800 is that when you look at data center and then 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:48.800 you actually factor and with China's going to be when 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:50.920 you look at two to five billion and you look 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.480 at the acceleration next few quarters, I mean, there's no 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:57.960 reason that's not accelerating. And now in China with the 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:01.120 pay for play model back in you're talking about could 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:04.920 be an incremental twenty twenty five thirty billion. That's why 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:07.880 it comes down to the godfather of Ai Jensen and 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.040 Video continue to dominate this and I think this is 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:13.520 just a further validation tech stocks go higher. 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:15.160 Dan, I feel like we should do a show where 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:17.320 in the world is Dan ives of Webbush because you're 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.920 always somewhere different. This morning, it looks like you're down 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.480 under in Sydney, and I'm curious about the rest of 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:25.680 the world. It's actually really telling that you've been traveling 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:28.400 the world because outside of China and Video's growth has 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.040 been tremendous and we've seen a real increase, particularly in 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:33.520 other Asian countries. 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:34.439 How much does that. 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:37.319 Give you that extra bullish push that, even if it's 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.760 not China, you are seeing the rest of the world 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.400 rush to adopt as much as they can of in 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:46.320 video before maybe some of the policies change yeah. 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:48.200 Look, and I think you see that Leason when you 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.760 look in Middle East, I mean Middle East, perfect example, 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:54.679 they're just continuing to just massively build that out when 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.040 it comes to Saudi UAE. Look, the reality is is 0:13:58.080 --> 0:13:59.559 that they're years ahead. 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:00.920 To any other chip player. 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.440 I mean you look at everything happened from a Huawei perspective. 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:05.800 There, they've narrowed the gap. 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:09.040 But the reality is that every Chinese big tech player 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:12.920 wants in vidio chips. And I think what you started 0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:15.560 and now realize is that you talk about a third 0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:18.200 of that overall revenue going to in video. This is 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:20.400 trillion that's going to be playing out. That's why I 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:23.320 believe there's a five trillion dollar mark cap. You know, 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.560 either by year end they're early twenty six. 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:28.360 But Dan, the China policy is subject to change on 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.680 the US side, and also we have seen in the 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:34.880 past Beijing telling firms not to buy and video chips. 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.120 Can this company continue to grow the way you envision 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:41.040 if say China was taken out of the of the play. 0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:45.640 Yeah, Look, there's no doubt China continues to be That's 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:48.520 the golden goose for Jensen Avini. But that's also why 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:53.720 look Jensen ten percent politician, ninety percent CEO. And when 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:56.800 you think about the China market, but also Beijing telling 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:00.600 Chinese company is big tech not to buy in idio chips, 0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:02.760 that's like telling a kid don't eat the candy. 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:06.040 The reality is they want in video chips. 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.400 They don't want to have a third fourth rate chip. 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.640 And that's why Jensen knows it. And they're going to 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.320 continue to kind of play this policy. And I think 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:17.640 we see here six nine, twelve months now China's a 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.600 fifty billion dollars annual market for them. 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.520 Jensen Wang last night said they keep advocating on the 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.440 sensibility of an importance of American tech companies to lead 0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:30.200 and win the AI race. Basically, we keep lobbying the 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.560 American government when it comes to Blackwell, do you think 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:34.160 at some point they'll be able to sell those chips 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:34.680 into China? 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.400 Hey for play model, right, I mean maybe that fifteen 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:42.920 percent goes to twenty five percent. Look, because Jensen understands 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:47.080 that what they can sell that gives Huawei and China 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.880 that much more power. And I think in this AI 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:54.080 arms race between the US and China's biggest poker chip 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:56.960 on the table continues to be in video, and I 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.600 think that's the reality. There's no one that has more 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.200 info when it comes to AI, you know, relative to Trump. 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:06.440 Vin Jentsen, I mean he's become really I think. 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.680 A big strategic advisor for Trump administration when it comes 0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:10.120 to AI. 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:12.760 Now, nobody's saying the growth story is gone a way. 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.680 We don't think this is going to next growth. No 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.200 one's suggesting that we're going to see healthy double digit 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:19.600 growth figures. Based on what we heard from the company overnight. 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.480 What they are suggesting is that the level of growth 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:25.160 is going to change, and perhaps we need to reassess 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.800 our view of this company With that in mind, don 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:30.760 how have you changed your view as growth decelerates just 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:31.440 by definition? 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:36.080 Yeah, Look, my view is that as you start to 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.760 actually go into physical AI world and you go into 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:42.040 Thomas going to robotics, you look at the next few years. 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:46.640 I could argue streets underestimating numbers twenty five thirty percent 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.960 next fe years. So I think as this actually plays out, 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:54.040 my view is like in video is undervalued relative to 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.120 where this is all going, and we're only in Like 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.240 I've talked about, the AI party was nine pm, now 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:03.800 ten ten fifteen pm. That party goes to four am, 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:05.679 and Jensen's going to be out there in the dans 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:09.600 for because he and in video we in the AI 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:12.080 revolution and one with the hyper scalurs and pound Teer. 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:14.560 What's become clear though, from the earnings of the likes 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.840 of Microsoft and Google or Alphabet, is that there is 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:20.120 some pushback when it comes to the investor in community 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.119 about how much some of these companies are spending and 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:25.679 it needs to broaden out in a significant way, and 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:28.480 if it does, that raises questions about how much in 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:31.800 Vidia has to steal market share from other players. Who's 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:34.960 going to be the biggest loser as in Vidia continues 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.480 and charts its path over complete dominance of this industry. 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:43.000 Yeah, losers are clearly Intel, right, I mean, despite obviously 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:46.520 what we see with US government and you know, obviously 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:49.040 soft Bank. I mean, I just think there's a better 0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:52.320 chance to meet playing Ryder cup beck Page than Intel 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.720 gaining share, you know, And I think that's that's part 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.880 of the issue, is that AMD is going to gain 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.800 share in video in the game chair. You're clearly on 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:04.680 broad common others, but it's a have and to have 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:07.120 nots that's going to continue to play out. 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:10.359 But but you look at last night's quarter along. 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:13.040 With what we've seen from earnings as a ball, you 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:15.959 feel really good in terms of the validation story for AI. 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:18.880 Down before you go, Shaitkeigan Bradley have chosen himself. 0:18:19.840 --> 0:18:22.439 Look, I think he could have chosen himself. You know, 0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:25.639 it was obviously maybe a good decision for him. But 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.480 I think ultimately US wins. That wins a Ryder cup 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:30.040 that pitch. 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:34.560 Stay with us mult Blomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:46.600 Stuart Kaiser, the head of Equity Trading Strategy a city 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.280 right in the following. In videos, earnings is the largest 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.200 event for the S and P five hundred over the 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:54.119 next month. For equity investors, the AI theme and the 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.760 impact of that on returns is on par with the FED. 0:18:57.880 --> 0:18:59.720 She joins us now for more Stuke and Mornic, good 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:01.680 morning things. A pretty calm on bike. What you make 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:01.919 of that? 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:03.120 I mean, I think the. 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:06.600 Video numbers were just about good enough effectively, probably right 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:08.480 at the low end of where the whisper number was. 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.240 The China stuff obviously adds a little bit a little 0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:13.199 bit of noise to it, but I mean margin seventy 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.119 you know, seventy whatever four and a half, seventy three 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.040 and a half percent ey sackmor they wanted to be fifty. 0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:18.720 Four billion of revenues. 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:20.720 I think that the test here was if a video 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.040 was really strong, what would it have done to. 0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:23.760 The Russell trade? 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:25.239 And I think that's what a lot of people were 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.320 sort of debating, was if we get a because you know, Snowflake, 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.760 a mango dB both very strong results on the soffar 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:32.760 Ai side, if you had gotten that from a video, 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:35.200 would that have made people you turn out of the 0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.480 Russell and value trade back into growth. It doesn't seem 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:40.399 like the numbers were strong enough to do that, but 0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:41.879 they were strong enough to keep the S and P 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:42.560 from selling offs. 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:45.520 So mill toast in video rapport is good for small camps. 0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:49.400 Yeah, at least tactically, you know, at least to highlighted 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:51.680 with the mix of policy versus data. I think that 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:53.840 that small cap trade as really poor risk reward as 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:56.960 we go into September, because it's careful what you wish for, 0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:59.720 wish for good news, good news news, bad news type situation. 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:02.879 But yeah, exactly, But yeah, I think I think the 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:06.000 video report kind of like threaded the needle. Right, it 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:08.080 was strong enough that you didn't get kind of a 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:10.959 liquidation in those long positions, but it wasn't so strong 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:13.119 that it disrupted the rotation that's been going on for 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:13.560 the last. 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:13.920 Couple of weeks. 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:17.200 Is this actually a connected idea that somehow big tech 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:21.200