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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that, Action Boss.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by BETMGM, the

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Speaker 3: King of Sportsbooks. We are two weeks away from the

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Speaker 3: NFL Draft. Two weeks from this coming Thursday, we continue

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Speaker 3: our NFL Draft betting Update episodes.

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Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen in the host chair.

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Speaker 3: We have Travis Reed joining us Action Network, NFL Draft

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Speaker 3: contributor also contributes at bet Labs. Evan Abrams, our director

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Speaker 3: of research and Media, and NFL contributor Jacob Wayne joining us.

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Speaker 3: We record on Monday, April eighth. Our experts have aligned,

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Speaker 3: the stars have aligned for our podcast today as we

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Speaker 3: get ready for the NFL Draft. We'll keep this very

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Speaker 3: simple because the Vikings still don't want to give us

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Speaker 3: a trade talk about. We'll hit on Stefan Diggs later

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Speaker 3: in the show. Diggs traded, what does that mean for

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Speaker 3: the Bills and what they might be targeting with their

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Speaker 3: draft picks.

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Speaker 1: Only markets out.

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Speaker 3: There right now are first when you surf around the

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Speaker 3: sports books into the solar system, looking around at what

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Speaker 3: might be available for your picks this year.

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Speaker 1: We'll go to the quarterback market first.

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Speaker 3: And get the latest temperature of that discussion. The market

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Speaker 3: for quarterbacks has been set over under four and a

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Speaker 3: half quarterbacks, which we hit on briefly last week. I

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Speaker 3: think we mentioned it in Passing, but we didn't spend

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Speaker 3: a whole lot of time on it. So we'll begin there,

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Speaker 3: Jacob Wayne, I'll throw to you first. Under on four

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Speaker 3: and a half quarterbacks is at plus money plus two

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Speaker 3: hundred some movement on individuals. I was hitting you guys

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Speaker 3: with this before we started at BETMGM. The team to

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Speaker 3: select Jaden Daniels the favorite is the Commanders at minus

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Speaker 3: one fifty five, the Patriots at plus one seventy five.

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Speaker 3: I'd like to mix in the fact that JJ McCarthy

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Speaker 3: is now minus three hundred to be a top five pick.

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Speaker 1: That number keeps climbing.

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Speaker 3: Where are you at just on the overall quarterback discussion,

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Speaker 3: and that is that price. Is there value on that price?

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Speaker 3: Under four and a half quarterbacks at plus two hundred.

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Speaker 4: It's hard to say that if there's value or not.

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Speaker 4: I mean, all it takes is one team obviously to

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Speaker 4: have a high grade on Bonus and Michel Penix, and

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Speaker 4: then they end up in the first round. Definitely going

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Speaker 4: to see four off the board in the top five

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Speaker 4: or so, it seems, with Jaja McCarthy's steam continuing to rise.

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Speaker 4: I'm a Broncos fan. I think I mentioned that previously here.

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Speaker 4: I have a really uneasy feeling that we're gonna end

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Speaker 4: up taking Bonix at twelve and I'm gonna hate it.

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Speaker 4: But Bonicks currently minus one seventy five to go under

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Speaker 4: thirty two and a half on draft position, definitely seems

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Speaker 4: like he'll be ended. He'll end up somewhere in the

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Speaker 4: first round. Maybe the Broncos' trading down a little bit

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Speaker 4: to take him, but I do think we're gonna see

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Speaker 4: over four and a half. I'm not betting it at

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Speaker 4: the current number though.

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Speaker 3: I'm glad you brought up that market though, because if

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Speaker 3: you do believe jj McCarthy is a top five pick,

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Speaker 3: you can get under five and a half draft position

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Speaker 3: at minus two thirty. So there are numbers out there.

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Speaker 3: It's why it's important to shop and take a look

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Speaker 3: at everything that's being offered. Because there are short edges.

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Speaker 3: You can get a better price save a couple cents.

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Speaker 3: I'll send it to Evan Abrams because you have thoughts

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Speaker 3: on Bonix and something you've dabbled in already with the

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Speaker 3: Boonix draft position or go in the first round.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I've been on that under thirty two and a

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Speaker 5: half and there's also a twenty six and a half

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Speaker 5: in the market. So I bought myself a little bit

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Speaker 5: of a middle by eating some juice since the juice

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Speaker 5: isn't on my side to get the middle, but I

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Speaker 5: gave it a shot as I think there is a

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Speaker 5: good chance he falls into that zone.

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Speaker 2: If I had to make the bet right now.

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Speaker 5: I'd say five quarterbacks get in the first round and

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Speaker 5: Nix finds his way somewhere in that zone. And I

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Speaker 5: think there's also a fun bet to be made by

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Speaker 5: him not going to Denver, so taking a few nibbles

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Speaker 5: at some teams, one team, I'd be curious what everyone

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Speaker 5: else thought about this. But even like Seattle, I know

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Speaker 5: Seattle's been linked to Pennix. But if Seattle may be

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Speaker 5: traded back, which they've done before and take a po

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Speaker 5: they're thirty to one to draft him, So I thought

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Speaker 5: that was an dart potentially.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Pennix did visit with the Seattle Seahawks. He had

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Speaker 3: his visit at Pro Day in the city of Seattle

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Speaker 3: with the Vikings that private visit which he got.

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Speaker 1: To make sure you read that very careful.

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Speaker 3: He's in Seattle with the Vikings because you know, Washington

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Speaker 3: is in the state of Washington. Travis Reed, what say you?

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Speaker 3: And just to present the other side of it. Over

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Speaker 3: four and a half quarterbacks at minus two.

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Speaker 6: Fifty, Yeah, I do agree with Seattle as a potential

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Speaker 6: landing spot. Especially Knicks did get a top thirty visit

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Speaker 6: there so he could go in play, be the backup

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Speaker 6: behind Geno for a year or so and then see

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Speaker 6: what you got. It's really tough though, with those last six, seven,

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Speaker 6: eight picks, because those teams don't need quarterbacks, so you'd

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Speaker 6: essentially have to project a trade up into that. But

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Speaker 6: we've seen that a lot before he's out with Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 6: Teams really covet that fifth year option with that quarterback.

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Speaker 6: So you're not necessarily projecting, say like the Chiefs or

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Speaker 6: the Bills or one of these teams to draft the quarterback.

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Speaker 7: You're saying, Okay, they'll trade.

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Speaker 6: Out and you know, let one of those other teams

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Speaker 6: move up get Nixon there, and that's how you're going

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Speaker 6: to hit that four and a half.

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Speaker 7: I don't think.

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Speaker 6: I'm not on board with like Las Vegas or Denver

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Speaker 6: just selecting one of those guys with their first picks.

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Speaker 7: I think they need more than that.

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Speaker 6: They're not a quarterback away, so if they were, I

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Speaker 6: think that's more likely. But since they're not, I think

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Speaker 6: you're gonna have to get that trade up in that

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Speaker 6: late first round to hit that over four and a half.

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Speaker 3: Am I right on that that Penick says a visit

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Speaker 3: with Seattle or is that not the case?

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Speaker 7: I think he hasn't had a top thirty visit.

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Speaker 6: No top thirty okay, yeah, bo Nick says, I think

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Speaker 6: everyone's kind of connected the dots just because of the

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Speaker 6: Washington thing, but he has not reported as of yet

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Speaker 6: taking his top thirty visit. Now, maybe that'll come out

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Speaker 6: in the next week or so. Some teams like to

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Speaker 6: keep that little close to the vest. Some teams just

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Speaker 6: let it all out there, so that'll we'll see if

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Speaker 6: they do get that, but as of right now has not.

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Speaker 2: It looks like Pittsburgh Raiders, Broncos Falcons, and Giants jirty

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Speaker 2: for Pennix.

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Speaker 3: Okay, thank you, yeah, Giants. Of course it's six in

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Speaker 3: the first round this year. Is that's the team closest

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Speaker 3: to the top of the draft. Pennix I think did

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Speaker 3: have a visit with the Denver Broncos too, so that's

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Speaker 3: maybe that was a confusion the b Nicks Penix back

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Speaker 3: and forth. Okay, so very good. So Evan's dabbled on

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Speaker 3: the bow Knicks front. As far as his draft position

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Speaker 3: or go in the first round, the prices are very

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Speaker 3: similar bonex to go in the first round? Is it

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Speaker 3: minus won seventy five under thirty two and a half

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Speaker 3: is also minus one seventy five? Anything else you'd like

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Speaker 3: to add on penis are a part of me on

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Speaker 3: bo Nicks, Evan.

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Speaker 5: God, now we've talked enough about a quarterback that I

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Speaker 5: don't even really love. But it's fine, We're going to

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Speaker 5: move on.

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Speaker 3: I know Jacob and Travis both have thoughts on some

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Speaker 3: new markets available as it pertains to the wide receiver

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Speaker 3: position and specific names.

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Speaker 1: Jacob, why don't you start us with Brian.

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Speaker 3: Thomas and what catches your eye about him and what

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Speaker 3: market is attractive?

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Speaker 4: Sure? So, his over under position marker for the draft

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Speaker 4: is currently sitting at fifteen and a half on one boat,

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Speaker 4: sixteen and a half on another book. Did see that

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Speaker 4: get hit? At open I think from the sixteen and

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Speaker 4: a half on the some seam on the under, and

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Speaker 4: I think there's a chance he could be a top

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Speaker 4: ten pick. To be honest, as we get closer to

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Speaker 4: the draft, not forecasting that necessarily, but I think he's

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Speaker 4: going to go a bit higher than people are initially expecting.

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Speaker 4: When the Jaguars lost conferend I actually played some Jaguars

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Speaker 4: stick a receiver at that point in time, thinking oh,

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Speaker 4: maybe we'll get Brian Thomas, But I think he's going earlier.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 4: The Broncos, I think are potentially in play at number

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Speaker 4: twelve if they're not taking a quarterback there. Their wide

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Speaker 4: receiver room is not in good shape. They traded away

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Speaker 4: Jerry Judy, josh Reynelds is signed to a contract but

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Speaker 4: just a one million dollar dead cat next year, and

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Speaker 4: Courtland Sutton about to turn twenty nine, Tim Patrick thirty

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Speaker 4: years old, off a twenty ACL twice. They need a

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Speaker 4: receiver badly, so you can see him going there. Colts

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Speaker 4: another potential landing spot replacing Alt Pearson the perimeter. You

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Speaker 4: have Alet Pierce running wind sprints half the time for

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Speaker 4: this team and could use another body out there, so

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Speaker 4: I think there's a good chance Brian Thomas is going

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Speaker 4: to go early in this draft and shake up the

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Speaker 4: side receivermarket, okay.

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Speaker 3: And one sided market in terms of guys going top ten.

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Speaker 1: You can get a price on Brian Thomas. Jun You're

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Speaker 1: a plus six fifty to be a top ten pick.

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Speaker 3: Just to speak to your first point, Travis Reid another

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Speaker 3: receiver you echo some of the sentiments here from Jacob

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Speaker 3: on Thomas. And there's another guy you're looking at as

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Speaker 3: well who has a big last name.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Brendan Rice out of usc You may know his dad, Jerry.

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Speaker 6: He's a little bit more famous, I think so. Yeah,

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Speaker 6: when I was going through all these top thirty visits,

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Speaker 6: his name just kept popping up on the list, and

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Speaker 6: I was just kind of all right, I'm going to

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Speaker 6: actually look and see how many there are. There were

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Speaker 6: seven total to three visits with Brendan Rice, and I

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Speaker 6: always most of the mockx I've looked at if you

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Speaker 6: look like two round or three round box, he's in

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Speaker 6: that day to discussion, like into round two, start around three.

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Speaker 6: So that was a little bit surprising. Uh, there is

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Speaker 6: a market for him to go forty to one in

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Speaker 6: the first round. If you do think he's going to

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Speaker 6: get that much steam, I'm not ready to take that

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Speaker 6: jump yet, but I'm gonna keep my eye on that

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Speaker 6: one to see if those continue to add up. Maybe

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Speaker 6: teams are just doing his data favor and try to

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Speaker 6: get him some more some pub out there. But it

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Speaker 6: was definitely a name that caught my eye when I

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Speaker 6: was going through all these visits of Okay, why is

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Speaker 6: this USC receiver who didn't have a whole lot of

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Speaker 6: you know, flash, especially when you you know he's with

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Speaker 6: the number one overall traffick, you think he was going

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Speaker 6: to get some star power along with that plus his

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Speaker 6: last name. So yeah, he's starting to get some visits

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Speaker 6: from some teams that are definitely wide receiver needy. So

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Speaker 6: I'm going to keep that back of mind and you know,

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Speaker 6: maybe take a stab on the timings a.

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Speaker 3: Right forty nine shop thirty visit the Broncos who we've

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Speaker 3: talked about in the nine or is that makes me

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Speaker 3: think about Ayuk and they're just the murkiness surrounding. I

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Speaker 3: know they gave ended up giving Deebo a contract, but

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Speaker 3: they can't spend everywhere right now, They're not spending on

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Speaker 3: quarterback as we know with the brock Purty, so they

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Speaker 3: have some flexibility at the skill positions.

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Speaker 1: So those are some teams to also keep in mind.

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Speaker 1: Haven't you had a thought there on Brendan Rice, No.

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Speaker 5: I was more about Thomas. I wanted to pull the audience.

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Speaker 5: I kind of agree with Jacob in terms of the

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Speaker 5: rise of Thomas. I was looking at second wide receiver

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Speaker 5: and Thomas one hundred to one. You have to shop

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Speaker 5: around a little bit. I don't know, probably not going

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Speaker 5: to happen, since so much of the hype is on

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Speaker 5: to Dunza and neighbors. But if he does, kind of

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Speaker 5: I see him mocked at like nine and eleven at

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Speaker 5: a few different spots as like his highest point, So

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Speaker 5: he probably wouldn't get to that like sixth spot, which

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Speaker 5: you'd probably need, but one hundred to one's fun so

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Speaker 5: I figured i'd bring it up.

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Speaker 6: Okay, Travis, He's kind of polarizing because it seems like

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Speaker 6: the mock draft either has him at like nine or

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Speaker 6: eleven or like twenty five or twenty eight. So like

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Speaker 6: when you look, because I looked at the average and

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Speaker 6: it was twenty two was his average draft position of

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Speaker 6: when I look at all the different mocks. But yeah,

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Speaker 6: like you said, it's either way high or way low.

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Speaker 6: So that's one of those where you can take advantage

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Speaker 6: of that, Like you said, take the top ten or

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Speaker 6: something like that, if you think he's really gonna rise,

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Speaker 6: or you can you know, take the over and get

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Speaker 6: like plus one seventy five a you know, over sixteen

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Speaker 6: and a half something like that. So you can kind

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Speaker 6: of play both sides of that market. You can get

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Speaker 6: reverse middled but if you think he's kind of an

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Speaker 6: all or nothing, or you know, the hype is going

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Speaker 6: one way or the other, you can kind of play

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Speaker 6: both sides there.

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Speaker 3: See talking about Brent Brendan, Rice, Bears, which that adds

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Speaker 3: up with the Caleb Williams connection, Cardinals, Chargers, all teams

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Speaker 3: right now at the top of the draft, so something

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Speaker 3: to keep an eye on for.

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Speaker 1: Rookie wide receivers.

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Speaker 3: There was a trade, not a Vikings trade up, but

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Speaker 3: a trade that you all have thoughts on, and I'm

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Speaker 3: fascinated by the line movement on this. Stefan Diggs was

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Speaker 3: dealt from Buffalo to Houston. I think the latest reporting

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Speaker 3: just from a general NFL standpoint, that has nothing to

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Speaker 3: do with the draft. The Texans are going to let

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Speaker 3: Digs go to the market after this year, so I

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Speaker 3: don't think there's a deal in place to keep them

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Speaker 3: around any longer.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's to.

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Speaker 3: See how it goes kind of year. The Texans are

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Speaker 3: all in on this year with Digs. So Travis, you

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Speaker 3: brought this to our attention in our slack channel that

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Speaker 3: we get ready for the podcast in and the price

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Speaker 3: on Digs or part of me for the Bills position

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Speaker 3: of first drafted player minus three hundred seeing some minus

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Speaker 3: two forties now out there, what do we make of

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Speaker 3: the price?

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Speaker 1: Are the Bills going to go in this direction? Will

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Speaker 1: it be receiver?

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Speaker 3: Is there value in other positions now because of this uptick,

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Speaker 3: now that the Bills are without Gabe Davis and Stefan dis.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think once the market has reacted, it's a

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Speaker 6: good time to buy back on some of the other

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Speaker 6: positions of need. The time to get in was before

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Speaker 6: the trade. Try to get that receiver at a good price,

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Speaker 6: And now I think you can take some of those

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Speaker 6: other positions of need, whether that be you know, defense,

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Speaker 6: really you can kind of take a stab everywhere there

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Speaker 6: because they've lost at all three levels. So yeah, I

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Speaker 6: think now it's not the time to bet them to

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Speaker 6: take a receiver, even though that is the most likely.

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Speaker 7: That's why they're favored.

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Speaker 6: So I think right now, if you want to look

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Speaker 6: in other directions like corner safety, something like that, that

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Speaker 6: would probably be the positions I would be looking to

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Speaker 6: bet for the Bills right now.

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Speaker 3: Jacob, how about yourself, any position in particular that you're

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Speaker 3: eyeing with the Bills outside of receiver with that price

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Speaker 3: change in the Digs trade, Yeah, well.

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Speaker 4: Set on the receiver first for a minute. It is

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Speaker 4: interesting because we just talked about Brian Thomas. How many

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Speaker 4: people are hyping up Brian Thomas to the Bills Now.

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Speaker 4: It's going to take a big trade up at this point.

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Speaker 4: I think from twenty eight Jayden Daniels on his Instagram

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Speaker 4: live saying, with a twenty eighth pick in the draft,

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Speaker 4: the Bills select Brian Thomas. I'm like, you're selling your

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Speaker 4: guys short there, and like he's going earlier than that

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Speaker 4: at this point, but looking at some other positions, I

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Speaker 4: think is the way to go now with the odds

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Speaker 4: heavily skewed towards receiver with the Bills. Worth noting too

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Speaker 4: that we are seeing under six and a half receivers

309
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Speaker 4: at around minus one seventy five for the B for

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Speaker 4: just the first round, so I think there's the chance

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Speaker 4: that the Bill's wait on receiver honestly reminds me a

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Speaker 4: bit of the I think it was the Packers a

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Speaker 4: few years ago when they very clearly needed a receiver

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Speaker 4: after Demonte Adams had left, and they ended up waiting

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Speaker 4: on it even though everybody was mocking a receiver to

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Speaker 4: them early could see them wait until the second round.

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Speaker 4: I just don't think there's a huge tier break at

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Speaker 4: the position past that top four. So once you get

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Speaker 4: into that next tier at guys like there's a lot

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Speaker 4: of players on day two who I think could fill

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Speaker 4: a need for them. But looking at some other positions there,

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Speaker 4: I think corner is intrigued at plus six fifty. A

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Speaker 4: couple of names to look out for there would be

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Speaker 4: Ennisraykistraw I think as a player who could be intriguing

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Speaker 4: to them, and then defensive line edge at around plus

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Speaker 4: four hundred as well.

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Speaker 3: And as far as receiver, they have brought in Curtis

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Speaker 3: Samuel maccollins are their dumpster diving signings to make up

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Speaker 3: for what they have, but they want some top end talent.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure, Evan. I'm curious when we hit the Bills

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Speaker 3: throughout the year. You were on the recap pods throughout

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Speaker 3: the season on Mondays and down the stretch when they

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Speaker 3: made the change at offensive coordinator try to implement a

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Speaker 3: run game. I see O line at thirteen to one,

335
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Speaker 3: and they've made a few signings at O line, But

336
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Speaker 3: maybe the Bills are just trying to fully commit themselves

337
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Speaker 3: with their moves and an unhappy receivers. They just said, hey,

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Speaker 3: we're going to move on and not give you. Gave

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Speaker 3: Davis a lot of money.

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Speaker 1: But how about offensive line for Buffalo?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, first of all, I don't think they're

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Speaker 5: going to take receiver. I think they ironically enough, they

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Speaker 5: need a lot because they've lost a lot, and I

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Speaker 5: don't think I would have thought that with Buffalo, But

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Speaker 5: you kind of have to look at current depth charts

346
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Speaker 5: and make a decision. And the decision is they've lost

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Speaker 5: a lot, right, So I don't necessarily think whide receiver

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Speaker 5: is the only thing they need. And I love the cornerback, hall,

349
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Speaker 5: cornerback and D line. So I saw seven fifty and

350
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Speaker 5: four fifty. To me, those were the darts that I

351
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,880
Speaker 5: would probably throw at this point. Two fifty and two

352
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Speaker 5: forty on the minus side for receiver is just way

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Speaker 5: too chalky in my point of view, especially at that

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Speaker 5: point later in the round. God, anything can happen, right

355
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Speaker 5: in terms of who falls and who doesn't. So those

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Speaker 5: would be my stabs, and that's what I would believe

357
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Speaker 5: in terms of what they need, and if anything, they

358
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Speaker 5: might move out if they don't have it to get

359
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Speaker 5: more picks, to be able to get more players.

360
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Speaker 3: They gave Dion Dawkins at left tackle a big contract.

361
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Speaker 3: I realized that, so maybe a line's not where they're

362
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Speaker 3: going to use their draft capital. But I'm just wondering

363
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Speaker 3: maybe they go all in on trying to give them

364
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Speaker 3: a line.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I saw a top thirty visit for neland

366
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Speaker 5: as well, so defensive line kind of fit fit that

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Speaker 5: in that spot, all right.

368
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Speaker 3: So I think the overall consensus here is don't chase

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Speaker 3: a minus two forty, minus three hundred number one receiver.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, especially like what Evan said late in the draft,

371
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Speaker 6: because the later we get in that first round, they're

372
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Speaker 6: just more possibilities are out there, So you really don't

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Speaker 6: want to be, you know, pigeonholing yourself into a bunch

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Speaker 6: of favorites later in the draft when these these drafts

375
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Speaker 6: can go so sideways.

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Speaker 1: So okay, what's their draft capital situation?

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Speaker 3: Meaning, like can they are they in the market to

378
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Speaker 3: go trade for a guy now, possibly like an Ayuk

379
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Speaker 3: or a.

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Speaker 1: I'm just I'm throwing that out there. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what do they think. Are the bills going to upgrade

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Speaker 1: and go get a number one?

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Speaker 4: Hard for me to imagine with how many roster holes

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Speaker 4: they have right now. I hear you, yeah, be that aggressive,

385
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 4: and we should say, like they're not totally barren there,

386
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Speaker 4: Like I do think Dawson Oxs has potential and I

387
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Speaker 4: think Kinkaid Sorry I always get those two mixed up

388
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Speaker 4: in mad I think it's a ton of potential as

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Speaker 4: a true number one option into passing offense and then

390
00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 4: Kleioshakire coming back as well, So they have some guys there.

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Speaker 4: I don't know they need to be super aggressive in

392
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Speaker 4: the trade market, but that's kind of where my head's at.

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Speaker 6: It'd be weird to trade digs and then just flip

394
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Speaker 6: around and then trade for you can pay him a

395
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Speaker 6: ton of money. The whole reason they got into this

396
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Speaker 6: situation is because they spent too much money. They're trying

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Speaker 6: to kind of lower that tax bill back down, so

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Speaker 6: I think they're going to just try to replenish with

399
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Speaker 6: the draft. I actually like the call of trading out

400
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 6: if I, you know, if I were the Bills, maybe

401
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 6: that's where somebody trades up to to get that fifth

402
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,879
Speaker 6: quarterback we've been talking about, and then just try to

403
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:38,879
Speaker 6: get a couple of Day two picks and try to

404
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,840
Speaker 6: hit on some receiver, some corner. They need to replace

405
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 6: the center, so they, like Jacob said, they have quite

406
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 6: a few holes that they need to try to get

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Speaker 6: filled up.

408
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 3: Okay, so the Bill's got a twenty twenty five second rounder.

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Speaker 3: That was kind of what I was getting out. I

410
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Speaker 3: was curious that they got a pick for this year.

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Speaker 5: No third rounder hurts as well, especially in the Yeah,

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Speaker 5: so you only have a one into two, which is

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Speaker 5: why I even brought up the you know, creating the

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Speaker 5: one to get a few more picks to fill up

415
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Speaker 5: some mit spots.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 3: other markets that you guys are targeting keeping your eyes on.

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Speaker 3: I know we're repetitive about this every week, but when

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Speaker 3: we don't have a the digs tray is nice something

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Speaker 3: to discuss, but we don't have the vikings. We don't

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Speaker 3: have clarity on the quarterback situation. Take quarterback and receiver

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Speaker 3: out of it, Travis. Any markets that you that have

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Speaker 3: popped up here that you're also eyeing.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, the we mentioned the over unders on players.

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Speaker 6: Brock Bauers obviously a huge tight end prospect. His over

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00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 6: under is eleven and a half, which is just kind

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Speaker 6: of intriguing because everyone kind of has him mocked to

436
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 6: the Jets now at ten. But the under was even money,

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Speaker 6: so that I kind of figured that would be the

438
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Speaker 6: favorite there considering how everyone's kind of just penciled him

439
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 6: in to go to the Jets now, So.

440
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 7: That's one that definitely kind of caught my eye when

441
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 7: looking through all these player over unders.

442
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 1: Evan, you had a thought on Joe Alt.

443
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, under seven and a half.

444
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 5: I can't read another mock draft that tells me he's

445
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 5: going seventh and not at least put some action on that.

446
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,159
Speaker 5: So I've taken the under seven and a half. And

447
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 5: I also mentioned I believe on previous podcast I've got

448
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 5: for Shan who as first tight ends like a long shot.

449
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 5: The one thing I will say, and you could have

450
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 5: started with this at the top of the show. It

451
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 5: really gets kind of difficult to this point in terms

452
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 5: of recommending position when you don't know what positions other

453
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 5: people have, so like early on it's like, okay, let's

454
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 5: start building portfolios. But a lot of this does depend

455
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,400
Speaker 5: on what you've already been on initially, so that you

456
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:12,919
Speaker 5: try to make a profit at the end of this,

457
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 5: versus looking on draft night and being like, well, I

458
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 5: need like a thousand things to happen and you can't

459
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 5: be profitable anyway, So definitely make sure what you've already

460
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 5: bet already before you know you start adding on some

461
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 5: of these things we're recommending. So that's one thing I

462
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 5: would preface.

463
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 3: I've got something to follow up on that in a second, Jacob,

464
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 3: anything from your end on other markets that are.

465
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: Available, Yeah, the brock Hours one is definitely interesting. I

466
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 4: think the Jets are in play for Brian Thomas too,

467
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 4: by the way. That's about that earlier, but another over runner.

468
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 3: Market, the Jets doing anything but trying to bolster an

469
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 3: a line and just go out and get more toys

470
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 3: for the darkenst quarterback.

471
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 4: Right Well, that leads me back to the next play

472
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 4: I was in the discuss is to Lisa Fuanga over

473
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 4: under thirteen and a half right now, still in play

474
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 4: for the Jets at ten. I think they're not definitely

475
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 4: they're not locked into a skill player. I think a

476
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,160
Speaker 4: lot of people are mocking that right now, but could

477
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 4: definitely still see them going offensive line. But I love

478
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 4: Fulanga's profile. You can get some more than nitty gritty

479
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,439
Speaker 4: about his scouting, but just go go watch the Oregon

480
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 4: State UCLA game, absolutely dominant tape from him against one

481
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 4: of the top pass russures in this class. Light's a

482
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 4: lot too. No pressures allowed on twenty nine pass blocking

483
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,959
Speaker 4: snaps in that game. Looking at some of the teams

484
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 4: near the top who I think could be in play

485
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 4: for him. The Bears I think are definitely in play

486
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 4: potentially for a left tackle need there. And then the

487
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,479
Speaker 4: Jets just talked about them, the Chargers potentially at eleven

488
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 4: if they trade down with the Vikings too. Everybody's mocking

489
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 4: that trade with the Vikings. We have to get a quarterback.

490
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 4: He can play right tackle there, good fit across from

491
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 4: Racheon Slater. Just more physicality upfront, and we know Jim

492
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 4: Harper was looking to bolster that offensive line. Broncos a

493
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 4: twelve raiders of third team potential for fu Wanka as well.

494
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 4: So I think the under thirteen and a half is

495
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 4: a good bet right now.

496
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 1: Very good.

497
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 3: Just speaking to the draft talking heads, Daniel Jeremiah just

498
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 3: put out his top fifty prospect list. It's on a

499
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 3: mock draft. It's just his latest top fifty prospects available.

500
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 3: Williams at one, Marvin Harrison Junior two, a Dune'esay at three,

501
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 3: Neighbors to four, and then it goes through quarterbacks, Bowers

502
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 3: at seven, Joealt to eight. Again, these are just top

503
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 3: fifty prospects according to Jeremiah, So sort of to Evans point,

504
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 3: and we can wrap with this at what point two

505
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 3: and a half weeks to go and folks.

506
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: Are trying to make sense of their portfolio.

507
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 3: And this, again Evan, to your point, relies heavily on

508
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 3: what people have already bet or what they haven't bet.

509
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 3: But if you have bet in certain markets and you've

510
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 3: put together a plate of selections in your picks already, Travis,

511
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: at what point do you start getting more aggressive with

512
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 3: two weeks ago? Because now we're getting closer here, right,

513
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 3: So when do you say when does risk there's risk

514
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 3: involved no matter what, as we know, but when do

515
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 3: you start maybe being a little more aggressive as we

516
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: get closer This might be a better question for next

517
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 3: week too, but just we get we're getting to that point, right,

518
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 3: we're finding out more information.

519
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, in the next.

520
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,880
Speaker 6: Week or two, we'll we'll actually get the full list

521
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 6: of almost every visit and that'll kind of clear some

522
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 6: things up. And then what you also start to see

523
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 6: is mock drafts kind of converge towards like the same things,

524
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 6: and that usually means okay, they've heard the same thing

525
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 6: from insiders as somebody else. So that's when you can

526
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 6: kind of start, Okay, the market has said, or you know,

527
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 6: they're saying, here's what's going to happen, So now I'm

528
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 6: going to start actually making some moves in the market.

529
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 7: But yeah, I do agree with Evan.

530
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 6: If you've already, you know, you know, placed some bets

531
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 6: on this guy's over and now he's getting steamed up,

532
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 6: you don't want to just start betting the under now too,

533
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 6: and just you know, eating the big there. Just hold

534
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 6: onto your position and just know it's probably.

535
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 7: Not the best that you got.

536
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 6: But yeah, I think we're about to that point where

537
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 6: a lot of the information is going to start to

538
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,719
Speaker 6: come out and we'll have less speculation and more Okay,

539
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 6: this is what I think is going to.

540
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: Happen, Jacob, anything to add on that front.

541
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 4: I got one more thing I think is actionable right now. Okay,

542
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 4: that's cool. I think Cowboys first position drafted linebacker currently

543
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 4: available at seven to one on one book in the

544
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 4: four hundreds at most places elsewhere. I think Edge Cooper

545
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 4: might end up going in the first round. Here he's

546
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: twenty six on Danishmearra's big BOARDY just references top fifty.

547
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 4: He's met with the Cowboys at basically every step of

548
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 4: this pre evaluation process, and the Cowboys generally a team

549
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 4: that don't hold things too close to the vest with

550
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,959
Speaker 4: some of these visits, don't want to overreact because it

551
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 4: happens all the time that a team won't bring a

552
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 4: guy in for a visit and then they'll draft him anyways.

553
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 4: But with Edge Cooper, I do think that the Cowboys

554
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 4: have shown a ton of interest in him. Leyton vander

555
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 4: Ash medically retired. The Cowboys did sign Eric Kendricks to

556
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 4: one year contract, but he just turned thirty two. I

557
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 4: don't know how much longevity he has with that franchise,

558
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 4: and definitely need a linebacker. Couber is just kind of

559
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,479
Speaker 4: a perfect amount of linebacker with his speed, his coverage ability,

560
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 4: he's blitzing, really trying to do it all guy, and

561
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 4: really explosive chest piece to pair with Michael Parsons in

562
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 4: that linebacker room.

563
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 3: And Evan you you had one more thought just on

564
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: folks in their the portfolios they put together in the

565
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 3: the argument of speculation versus calculation.

566
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: As we get closer to Detroit in draft night.

567
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, just make sure you track them all right. Track

568
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 5: your bets, put a scratch spreadsheet, make sure you have

569
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 5: everything written out. I actually had an ad here from

570
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 5: an actionable point of view. First of all, tip number one,

571
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 5: two and three is shop right. Look at all your

572
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 5: sports books. Make sure you look around and you know,

573
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 5: make sure you get the best price. And here's one example.

574
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 5: One book I'm looking at right now has Bowers at

575
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 5: seven fifty to go to the Bears. Another book has

576
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 5: him at fourteen to one. So I kind of like

577
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 5: the fourteen to one as a flyer. I know many

578
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 5: mocks aren't putting Bowers in that nine slot, but there

579
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 5: was a top thirty thirty visit there. They're gonna draft

580
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 5: Caleb one to get him a weapon like that. I

581
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 5: you know, Dallas Turner, there's a lot of things that

582
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 5: probably make more sense for Chicago, But at fourteen to one,

583
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 5: I found that a little interesting. And then the other

584
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 5: one we didn't talk about is exact as. So I

585
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 5: saw those came out and I took a nibble at

586
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 5: Caleb Jalen Drake at plus one twenty five. It's one

587
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 5: fifteen now I think it's fine. And on the other way,

588
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 5: Caleb Jalen JJ which eight to one now plus seven fifty.

589
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 5: So that's what I touched. I think I've liked Jalen

590
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 5: two kind of the entire time. I know Jacob and

591
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 5: I a little disagreed there, but that's that's the method

592
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 5: I'm going with.

593
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 3: So you got no, there's no path for Evan Abrams

594
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 3: to see may go to number two.

595
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,719
Speaker 5: I just I don't see it again. You know, anything

596
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 5: can happen.

597
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: Okay, anyone else, any final thoughts before we get out

598
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 3: of here.

599
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 4: Everyone good. I would just say stayed the consensus. I

600
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 4: think we're at a point right now where everyone's mock

601
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 4: drafts look the same. It's not going to happen that way,

602
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 4: like we've we've seen chaos on draft night every single year.

603
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 4: So if you want to get different and find like

604
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 4: a flyer on a position to a team that people

605
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 4: aren't talking about, but you think there's a good reason for, like,

606
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 4: don't be afraid to be different in these markets Giants QB.

607
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 7: That's that's my different right now. I think.

608
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,719
Speaker 6: I think if the Chargers stay put at five and don't,

609
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 6: they're not in the market for a QB. I think

610
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 6: the Giants probably just take one of the qbs at six,

611
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 6: So I think.

612
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 7: That's a good way.

613
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 6: Unfortunately, a lot of the books aren't putting that market

614
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 6: up for Giants first position, so you have to find

615
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 6: it some other way. But I'm leaning more more and

616
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 6: more towards that fourth quarterback just going to the Giants.

617
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 3: Right which is that speaks to don't do not buy

618
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 3: in on JJ McCarthy being a top five pick as

619
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 3: of right now.

620
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, the later we get with the trade not happening,

621
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 6: I think that's more and more likely that he's If

622
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 6: he's there at six, I think the Giants are just

623
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 6: going to take.

624
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 2: Him or any of fifty right now. So that's not bad.

625
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, plus five fifty four McArthur.

626
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 2: To go to the Giants would be like the specific market,

627
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: got it?

628
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 1: Got it? Okay?

629
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 4: Yep?

630
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: Bikings.

631
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,239
Speaker 3: That Vikings price, which we've hit on was minus one

632
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: fifteen going back a few weeks. It was it even

633
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 3: money last week. Now it's a plus one fifteen as

634
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: we record two weeks away from the draft. Patriots plus

635
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 3: four hundred and is having called out Giants plus five

636
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 3: fifty commanders Broncos Raiders next.

637
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: Okay, gents, we will do this again next week.

638
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: We'll be back next Monday, April fifteenth, to get set

639
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: for the twenty twenty four NFL Draft. Be sure to

640
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 3: find these guys you'd find Jacob. He's got coverage of

641
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: the NFL Draft over at Action networ. I think you

642
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 3: did a write up last week. Correct me if I'm

643
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 3: wrong on the on Big Ten, right, guys that get

644
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 3: selected in the Big ten Jacob.

645
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, kind of a conference overview. They drop markets for

646
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 4: over under for positions by conference, so Big ten sec

647
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 4: acc all that?

648
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 3: Okay, very good for Jacob, Wayne, Travis Reed, and Evan Abrams.

649
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen, we return next Monday for another NFL Draft

650
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 3: betting preview leading up to April twenty fifth in Detroit.

651
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 3: My name is Brendan Glasheen. Thanks for tuning in to

652
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast presented by BETMGM.

653
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time. Action Network reminds you

654
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly.

655
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 7: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

656
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 7: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

657
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:53,440
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