1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single. 2 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:17,240 Speaker 2: Best idea on a Friday of great conversations. We're really, 3 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 2: really an e collective group of conversations. Margaret Brennan joining 4 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 2: from Face the Nation. We play that for Boston, Washington, 5 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: and New York on Sunday afternoons. Lots of other good 6 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: discussions as well, and some breaking news. We started strong 7 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 2: with Lindsay Pegs, as she was my Economist of the 8 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 2: Year a couple of years ago. She was really out 9 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: front on persistent inflation and a FED that would have 10 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: trouble cutting interest rates. We get an update from Lindsay 11 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 2: Pegs of Stifel. 12 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 3: Look at the last couple of years we've been hearing 13 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 3: that message from the Fed. We haven't seen the Fed 14 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 3: implement the implemented the needed policy to get us back 15 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,959 Speaker 3: to two percent, and frankly, the market is not convinced 16 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 3: that the FED will get us back to two percent. 17 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 3: So again I see the Fed's concern about that caution 18 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,559 Speaker 3: on the labor market front, and certainly I don't deny 19 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 3: the fact that we have seen top line job creation cool, 20 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,199 Speaker 3: but there are other metrics that suggest the labor market 21 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 3: is not as dire as the FED anticipates, and again 22 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 3: against the backdrop of still solid growth, elevated price pressures, 23 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 3: and a lack of downside momentum to inflation. At this point, 24 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 3: I agree with those seven FED members that we should 25 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 3: not see any additional policy easing through the end of 26 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 3: the year. 27 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 2: Quite controversial. Lindsaypis of Stifel there, and of course we 28 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: dive into a big conversation next week with all sorts 29 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: of FED officials. I'll be with Christopher Waller at the 30 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 2: Console and Formulations October sixteenth. We hope to bring you 31 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: much of that conversation, joining us as well. Katie Kaminski 32 00:01:55,840 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 2: hugely popular on quantitative trend Following up at Alpha's Simplex. 33 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 2: Here's Katie Kominski on the oddities of this market. 34 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 4: We have seen some idiosyncratic movements in the dollar, so 35 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 4: you're seeing certain currencies like the Swedish kroner, the Turkish 36 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 4: lira kind of gaining some ground on the dollar. My 37 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 4: view on this is it's a trend that is sort 38 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 4: of petering out, so it's losing some of its strength. 39 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 4: And part of this is there's been so much, so 40 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 4: much backing for that weaker dollar, so much hedging demand 41 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 4: against the dollar that has built up. We also have 42 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 4: rate cuts on the horizon, which is also very negative 43 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 4: for the dollar. So I'm not saying that I'm positive 44 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 4: on the dollar yet because of that. But it is 45 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 4: a trend that, as Tom would say, losing some of 46 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 4: its convexity. 47 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 2: Convexity matters there. We talked to it. Let me explain 48 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 2: that word. That's sort of math talk for acceleration, which 49 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 2: is a second derivative. There's too much. We don't do 50 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 2: calculus on Friday. But convexity is where things pick up, 51 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 2: things excit tolerate, things get faster, And it's just a 52 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 2: it's a word that's used in quantitative finance. Uh, you know, 53 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 2: the physics envy of it all. On podcasts, we're out 54 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 2: an Apple, We're out of Spotify. At YouTube podcasts, single 55 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 2: best idea