1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,119 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Joining us now, 11 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: Andrew Hallen Norris's City Groupee has been spectacular. I'm looking 12 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 2: for a higher interest rate regime and then coming down. 13 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 2: He's looking for a persistency of raid cuts. You still 14 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: live with the persistency of raid cuts. 15 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 3: And I think we feel a lot more confident in 16 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 3: that after the jobs report, where we just see a 17 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: consistent story of a hiring rate that's come down and 18 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 3: an unemployment rate that's come up. 19 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 2: To me, is so important here is the study of 20 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: the complete economy. Can you look at the complete American economy? 21 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 2: Or is it so polarized. You got to look at 22 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 2: it is love, they haves, they have nots. 23 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 3: There is a big disconnect right now. I think it 24 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 3: is historically large between those with high incomes those with 25 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 3: high net worth. Just think how different the experience is 26 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 3: if you're a homeowner and you have a low fixed 27 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 3: rate mortgage versus p right. 28 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 4: Oh gosh, no, I am. I'm waiting to refive it. 29 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 4: Don't worry, I'm on it. I just want to get 30 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 4: them going out of the so, Andrew, I mean, talk 31 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 4: to us about this labor economy. Tom and I had 32 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 4: a really interesting series of guests on Friday when this 33 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 4: data came out, and I guess the two theories were 34 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 4: four point two four point three percent. That's good unemployment. 35 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 4: That's fine. But no, if you look at the recent trends, 36 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 4: they're going the wrong way. How do you look at it? 37 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if you just focus on four point 38 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 3: two percent unemployment, that's not a bad unemployment rate. If 39 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 3: we could just stay at four point two percent. The 40 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 3: problem is, like you're saying, all of the evidence is 41 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 3: that that unemployment rate is going to continue to move higher, 42 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 3: and it may move higher in a non linear way. 43 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 3: I think that's the real concern, and there's been a 44 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 3: lot of focus on the idea that, well, the hiring 45 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 3: rates come down, the layoff rate hasn't come up yet, 46 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 3: And the yet I would emphasize because in every cycle 47 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 3: that's what we see. The hiring rate comes down, then 48 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 3: the layoff rate comes up, and that's when you get 49 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 3: that nonlinearity. 50 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 4: So that goes to the consumer. I'm not sure how 51 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 4: to view the consumer. The consumer. On one hand, we've 52 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 4: got the consumer once a drop, they have a job 53 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 4: and wages are going up, so that's good. However, you 54 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 4: could argue that there's a lot of economic data suggesting 55 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 4: that the consumers may be stressing a little bit more 56 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 4: than we think. 57 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 3: That's usually going to be the last thing to slow down, 58 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 3: So I wouldn't really look at that as the forward 59 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 3: looking indicator where the economy is going. But you're absolutely right, 60 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 3: savings rate is low. People are spending again. The concern 61 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 3: is that as the unemployment rate rises, does that start 62 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: to change that behavior. Do people say I'm not going 63 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 3: to spend that extra dollar, I'm actually needs to save 64 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 3: a little bit more, And as that savings rate begins 65 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 3: to rise, consumption falls. 66 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 2: Andrew, I want to talk about the unemployment rate. I 67 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 2: think even the most unsophisticated understand when it gets going, 68 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 2: it gets going. Can you frame out a five percent 69 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 2: unemployment rate? 70 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 3: It's not hard to get there, Tom, if you just 71 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:28,880 Speaker 3: look at the trend that we've been moving up. We've 72 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 3: been up about zero point one percentage point per month. 73 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 3: So if you think about the remainder of this year, 74 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 3: we should be at four point six four point seven 75 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 3: if you just followed that trend. And again you don't 76 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 3: have to have a PhD in economics to look at 77 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 3: the chart of the unemployment rate and see once it 78 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 3: starts moving up, it usually accelerates higher. So I would 79 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 3: think four point six four point seven is maybe the 80 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 3: lower end of or we'll get to this year. 81 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: Does that change the thinking at the Fed? Is four 82 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: point nine? Come on? In our world? You know, Lisa 83 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 2: goes to Costco and is twenty nine to ninety nine 84 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 2: for four hundred pounds of stripstack, and that's different than 85 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 2: thirty dollars? Is four point nine different than five point zero? 86 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 3: To Fed PhDs, this is definitely affecting thinking at the 87 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve at this point where there is this awareness 88 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 3: that you could have this sharp weakening of the labor market, 89 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 3: is how shar Powell talks about it. And I think 90 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 3: we're moving from this discussion around should the Fed be preemptive? 91 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 3: Should they be cutting rates for insurance reasons too? Do 92 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 3: they just need to act now because we've already seen enough? 93 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 3: And that's kind of where Waller was in his speech, 94 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,679 Speaker 3: where you know before he was talking about we still 95 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 3: have time, we should be patient. Now it's a call 96 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:38,239 Speaker 3: to action. 97 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 4: So put all that into your blender. What's the economic outlook? 98 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 4: What's the GDP call for city these days? 99 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 3: So GDP has been holding up surprisingly well, and I 100 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,039 Speaker 3: think that's kind of the tension in the economy right now, 101 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 3: is we have these signs of weakness in the labor market, 102 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,600 Speaker 3: but consumer spending has been holding up. We think that broadly, 103 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,919 Speaker 3: this economy is going to slow down. We think we 104 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 3: should be seeing growth rates below potential, possibly negative growth 105 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 3: rates as we move forward again. 106 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:05,359 Speaker 2: That would be. 107 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 3: Consistent with a sharp weakening in the job market, which 108 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:09,159 Speaker 3: we haven't seen yet. 109 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 2: Wor'st nominal GDP. 110 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 3: Great question and we shouldn't forget about it. 111 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 2: Can I go home? Okay? I don't care about friendship. 112 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 2: I'll go home. We should not One great question of 113 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: the week. 114 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: Not forget about the price element here, right, is that 115 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 3: we've had prices that have been rising very rapidly the 116 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 3: last quarter or so of data. We're at closer to 117 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 3: a two percent underlying inflation rate. So I think underlying 118 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 3: inflation now I'm getting back towards that two percent rate 119 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 3: that should be where we're running over the next few 120 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 3: months at least. You add that to a real growth 121 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 3: rate that is sub two percent, So we're getting back 122 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 3: to much lower nominal growth rates where these have been 123 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 3: very Tie. 124 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 2: That in one final question, tie that into City Group 125 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 2: securities analysis. All of a sudden revenue growth is hard 126 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 2: to get right. 127 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this this could become really a challenge for 128 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: firms where you've seen these labor costs that have come up. 129 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 3: That's how they're reacting in terms of trying to cut 130 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 3: those labor costs by hiring less aggressive. 131 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 2: Are you going to watch the entire debate. 132 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 3: I'm going to watch the entire today. 133 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 2: There we go. Thank you so much, greatly appreciated Chief 134 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 2: economists for City Group for these parts of the United 135 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 2: States from c to Shining a Sea on the debate 136 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 2: Henrietta Tre's Veda partners, Henrietta, Is there any indication the 137 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 2: Democratic candidate can move to the. 138 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 5: Center, Hey, guys, Yeah, I think that Kamala Harris's own 139 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 5: website that was just updated overnight contains a number of 140 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 5: policy positions that are a shift from her prior position. 141 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 5: She's bringing the capital gains rate down to twenty eight percent, 142 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 5: for example. 143 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 6: She's got the corporate tax rates set at the same level. 144 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 5: That Barack Obama and Joe Biden both had at twenty 145 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 5: eight percent. I think that more interesting question is what 146 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 5: can actually get done, and then all those members will 147 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 5: have to come down next year. If Kamala Harris is president, 148 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 5: she wants to get a bill through the House and Senate. 149 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 5: So I am encouraging investors to sort of look ahead 150 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 5: to this on the member which committees, to see that 151 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 5: it'll be a twenty five percent corporate rate max. And 152 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 5: that's sort of where we are. 153 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 2: So this is your wheelhouse. Do you just assume there's 154 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: gridlock next year? 155 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 5: Well, there can't be gridlock. That's the only good news 156 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 5: we have. They have to have a bill next year. 157 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 5: It'll take all year to get done. I think that's 158 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 5: underappreciated by the market right now. I think people think that, 159 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 5: you know, one party comes into control, snaps their fingers 160 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 5: and we have a tax bill. It's not going to 161 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 5: get written until December seventeenth, December twenty second, those are 162 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 5: the last date for the last two tax bills. 163 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 6: It'll take all year. 164 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 2: Wow. 165 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 4: Okay, so let's I mean, it's just that's just politics. 166 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 4: I guess tomorrow night, what's the most important I guess 167 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,440 Speaker 4: swing factor for you tomorrow night. I guess is the 168 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 4: risk primarily for Vice President Harris that she needs to 169 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 4: either make it or break it tomorrow. 170 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, one of the candidates is going too. 171 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 5: I think very likely have something that gets blown out 172 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 5: of proportion and changes the narrative, mostly because the American public, the. 173 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 6: Media landscape demand that. 174 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,239 Speaker 5: Right now, the races neck and neck in every single 175 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 5: swing state and nationally, so we are primed, just as 176 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 5: we were for Joe Biden to drop out. We are 177 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 5: primed for a major event from this debate because there 178 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 5: are no external catalysts to come here after that anybody 179 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 5: can predict. 180 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 6: We will potentially get an October surprise. But this debate, 181 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 6: which is probably. 182 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 5: Going to be the last debate is the only thing 183 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 5: standing between now and the election. 184 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 4: So how aggressive does Vice President Harris need to be 185 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 4: to maybe make a positive break. 186 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 5: I think everybody's going to come in pretty hot. I 187 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 5: think they're eager to be on the same stage together. 188 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,079 Speaker 5: It'll be their first time. I would not be surprised 189 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 5: if their fireworks tomorrow. 190 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:52,439 Speaker 4: What I mean, what's a win for former President Trump? Tomort? 191 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 4: Because I think obviously the electric is fully aware of 192 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:57,839 Speaker 4: mister Trump. But what would be a win for him? 193 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 5: I guess a win for Trump I would be able 194 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 5: to focus on policy, really speak to suburban, female married voters. 195 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 5: Those are a demographic that he needs to win the 196 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 5: election and is where he's materially underwater. 197 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 6: If Kamala Harris. 198 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 5: Could speak to that same demographic as well and give 199 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 5: a presentation of the top things that really resonate with 200 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 5: voters from her perspective, things like the future of democracy 201 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 5: and specifically abortion. She's up by something like forty seven 202 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 5: points with female voters in the under thirty five cohorts, 203 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 5: so she doesn't really need to get those people on 204 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 5: board with her any further than they already are. But 205 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 5: both Trump and Harris need to speak to the middle, 206 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 5: but then they also need to energize their voters. I 207 00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 5: think anything where Trump does not say something against early 208 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 5: voting would be helpful. He really needs to help the 209 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:53,439 Speaker 5: Republican machine encourage early voting, which is something he keeps denigrating. 210 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 2: She's in major preparation in Pittsburgh. Okay, fine, is a 211 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 2: Is President Trump in major preparation? Is he going to 212 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 2: go in and completely ad lived in an ad hoc 213 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 2: way or is he going to mean more organized and 214 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 2: what his supporters and others have seen over the last 215 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 2: number of days and weeks. 216 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 5: I wouldn't expect a lot of organization. I mean, we 217 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 5: just had this movie in June. It was a high 218 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 5: stakes debate between Trump and Biden in June, and I 219 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 5: think what we saw from former President Trump was a 220 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 5: very ad hoc, sort of fact free approach to having 221 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 5: a conversation with Biden that ultimately was wildly successful and 222 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 5: got Joe Biden off the ticket. But if you read 223 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 5: any of the commentary that Trump put out there, you know, 224 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 5: talking about Democrats supporting killing babies after birth is. 225 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 6: Not a that's not true. So there were a lot of. 226 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 5: Things that I think Kamala Harris could kind of seize 227 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 5: on if the tension isn't the way it was during 228 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 5: the first of eight And we just saw that, and 229 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 5: I think that Trump would be well served to sort 230 00:10:58,160 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 5: of focus on some policy platforms. 231 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 6: Get that out there again, to speak to that suburban. 232 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 4: Voter, Henrietta. We keep hearing more and more I guess 233 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 4: over the last three four election cycles about just these 234 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 4: handful of swing states. How did we get here? Because 235 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 4: I don't remember growing up with six states determining the 236 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 4: presidential election seemingly every cycle. 237 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 5: But I mean it really has always been that way. 238 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 5: We have the rust Belt, and this state's shift every. 239 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 6: Once in a while. 240 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 5: Arizona, for example, never used to be in the conversation. 241 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 5: Florida used to be in the conversation, Colorado used to 242 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 5: be in the conversation. So the states themselves shift, but 243 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 5: you always have these six or seven that are deciding 244 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 5: the electorate. I forget exactly what the number is, but 245 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,400 Speaker 5: forty states consistently vote Ruther blue, you know, going back 246 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 5: to the at least the last couple of decades. 247 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at the Twitter feed all heated up. 248 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: We had friend show on of course from Arkansas, to 249 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,599 Speaker 2: be polite, a safe state for mister Trump. Hendred to 250 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 2: Trey's what is the ability of a hunk of this 251 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 2: debate or the whole debate to just sit on the 252 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 2: border question? I mean that is in President trump advantage, 253 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 2: isn't it. How does Vice President Harris amend the border question? 254 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 7: Yeah? 255 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 5: I think for Donald Trump, you would definitely want to 256 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 5: stay on the issue of immigration of crime. Those are 257 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 5: areas where the Republican candidate far exceeds Kamala Harris in 258 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 5: terms of voter perception. The priority for Harris, I imagine, 259 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 5: would be to speak facts to the last nine months 260 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 5: of the decline in immigration at the southern border as 261 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 5: a result of Biden's executive orders. She's going to face 262 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 5: charges that she was late to this and that for 263 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 5: three years they sort of sleepwalk through a problem. You're 264 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 5: certainly going to hear that commentary echoed from the governors 265 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 5: of Texas and other states that are on the border. 266 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 5: If Trump could hammer that home, I think it would 267 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 5: really help. It does resonate with voters. It is the 268 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 5: second highest issue after the economy, outside of protecting democracy. 269 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 6: That's followed by abortion. So those two issues, immigration and abortion. 270 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 6: I think are major priorities. 271 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 4: Henriette, what happens after tonight? What did the two campaigns 272 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 4: do as they sprint towards election day? 273 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: Good question. 274 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 5: Spend money left and right. I mean, we are doing 275 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 5: a campaigns everywhere. The Harris campaign has an ungodly sum 276 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 5: money to spend. I think it's only like two hundred 277 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 5: and seventy million dollars in ads that they've already bought 278 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,079 Speaker 5: along the seven states that you just mentioned. 279 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 6: So for anybody who lives there, get used to see 280 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 6: in their faces. But early voting started, you know, I 281 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 6: mean it's it's often popping. 282 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 2: Now we're doing it, Henrietta, thank you so much. Look 283 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 2: forward to speaking to you after the debate. Henrietta tres 284 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 2: Veda partners. I can't say enough about using say Wikipedia 285 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:42,320 Speaker 2: to look at the past, like the presidential election of 286 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. Joining us now, a congressman from a safe 287 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 2: state for Republicans, Arkansas Frenchfield joins us quickly here. Thank 288 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 2: you so much for stopping by. Tom great to be 289 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: with the congressman. You know, I see the percentages and 290 00:13:55,960 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 2: I think there's various Trump voters in Arkansas this morning. 291 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 2: Now out there a really ugly weekend. I think Ian 292 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,599 Speaker 2: Bremer has a president saying he's going to jail democrats. 293 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 2: I don't want to get into the silly. 294 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 7: I thought you were talking about the OSU razorbag game. 295 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 2: No. Yeah, that was painful to me. But you know, French, 296 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 2: I want to talk about the different flavors of Republicans 297 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 2: and how they're adapting to the rhetoric of their candidate 298 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: into this debate. 299 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 7: Well, it's it's important to know that I think, in 300 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 7: my view, President Trump stands for the mainstream of Republican 301 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 7: thought on economics, lower regulatory costs, lower taxes that promote 302 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 7: economic growth, and that he uses tariffs in his speech. 303 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 7: He was off on it in a big way yesterday 304 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,880 Speaker 7: as a cudgel to bring countries that do not have 305 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 7: fair trading practice with the US or lack market access 306 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 7: for US products and services to the table. But it's 307 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 7: I mean rhetorically, it's his top international economic issue, which 308 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 7: is you could say, inconsistent with long term Republican economic philosophy, 309 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 7: but not when you look back, say at the Reagan administration. 310 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: I mean, the fact is the news of the week, 311 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: and then Paul the New York Times Siena pol. I mean, 312 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are like, Wow, this 313 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 2: guy still has a popular vote and clearly electoral vote 314 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: momentum going. Does he move to the middle with a 315 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 2: rhetoric I'm seeing out there? 316 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 7: No, I don't think so. 317 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 2: I don't think so. I don't think so. 318 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 7: No, I think he and this has been very consistent 319 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 7: I think with President Trump. I mean, he sticks with 320 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 7: this messaging that he has, that he believes so strongly in, 321 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 7: and I don't see him moving it. And I don't 322 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 7: you know, I think some would argue that Vice President 323 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:54,479 Speaker 7: Harris is moving to the middle with some of her proposals, 324 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 7: but they're like from the most radical left fringe to 325 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 7: slightly less left, not per se to the middle. She 326 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 7: uses a lot of press release buzzwords, you know, childcare, 327 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 7: lowering taxes for working families, and things like that, but 328 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 7: when you get into details, I don't think so. 329 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 4: What you expect to hear from both candidates tomorrow and 330 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 4: this debate because it may be the only. 331 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 7: Debate, Yeah, which is not good. I support, you know, 332 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,600 Speaker 7: obviously more debates, but with early voting way we have 333 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 7: it in our country. Now, you know that both campaigns 334 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 7: have to get on with it. 335 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 2: And I think. 336 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:29,240 Speaker 7: Obviously that President Trump probably wishes that he had had 337 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 7: a later debate with President Biden and make that knockout 338 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 7: punch much later. 339 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 2: But if I go out to eighty seven and I 340 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 2: go up Highway sixty five, I go past Twin Groves, Damascus, 341 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 2: this is your territory. Are they going to turn out 342 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 2: for Trump? 343 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 7: They're going to turn out for Trump in Damascus, Arkansas 344 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 7: and Faulkner County. I mean Trump. You see Trump signs 345 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 7: and Trump manners up and down that highway and across 346 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 7: my district, particularly in the rural areas. 347 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 2: Trump for them. 348 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 7: Speaks about this issue of more opportunity for manufacturing jobs 349 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 7: working people in America and that he's got their back, 350 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 7: and that is a message that delivers you. 351 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 2: What would be your question to Vice President Harris in 352 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 2: this debate is a Republican away from the Magatne. 353 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 7: Do you support policies that actually promote economic growth in 354 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 7: cutting regulatory expenses? And what is the right corporate tax rate? 355 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 7: And do you think that investments deserve a between twenty 356 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,199 Speaker 7: eight and forty four percent capital gains tax rate? And 357 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 7: ask her to explain what an unrealized gain is actually 358 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,680 Speaker 7: I'd like to know her if she understands that math. 359 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 4: So what do you expect? What would you think Vice 360 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 4: President Harrison needs to do at her debate tomorrow? What 361 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 4: does she need to do well? 362 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 7: I think you're right Paul, thinking she needs to look 363 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 7: like she's Centrists, that she's not Bernie Sanders, that she's 364 00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 7: similar to the far right of Bernie Sanders, that she 365 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 7: is smart and she's up on the issues, and that 366 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 7: she's got a sense of humor. But that looks presidential. 367 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 7: I think that's a big I think it's a big 368 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 7: lift for her. But I think that's the main issue 369 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:05,640 Speaker 7: for her. 370 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 2: Was the major mistake of Biden? From Sea to Shining Sea. 371 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 2: Forget about Paul, the state's New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, where 372 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 2: President Biden was getting sixty seventy percent of vote whatever, 373 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 2: what was the major mistake as he couldn't run to 374 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 2: the center, that he ran to the left. 375 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 7: I think I think President Biden said I'm going to 376 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 7: be a better voice. I'm not Trump, and that I 377 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 7: would be. I'm a common sense, practical guy from Scranton. 378 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 7: But he governed as if he were Bernie Sanders and 379 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 7: that left agenda of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and he 380 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 7: didn't make any reach to the center. Actually, maybe you 381 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,119 Speaker 7: could say he did in the bipartisan infrastruy Okay, but 382 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 7: not much. 383 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 2: Core question is a president When you look at the 384 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 2: language of President Trump on Twitter, people will take him 385 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 2: verbatim what he's saying. I'm gonna be honest, it's to 386 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 2: the edge of incoherent. Can he move? Does he have 387 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 2: the ability to move to the middle of the GOP 388 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 2: or is he just gonna stay for four years? 389 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 7: I'm mega, I think he's gonna stay where he is. 390 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 7: I mean, I think that's the that's the Trump. If 391 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 7: that's Trump, so. 392 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 4: I mean that's Trump is at the Republican Party. 393 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 2: Serious. 394 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 7: Look, let me go back and say though on regulatory budget, 395 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 7: having Elon Musk had a commission to use AI and 396 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 7: technology and blockchain to reform the federal government, that's a 397 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,399 Speaker 7: good idea. That's a Peter Grace good idea. Having lower 398 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 7: taxes that don't penalize investment in this country penalize. Those 399 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 7: are good ideas. 400 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,199 Speaker 2: Okay, And I mean, Arkansas can't play football, But you 401 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,360 Speaker 2: really want to get rid of the Department of Education. 402 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 7: I think Republicans have campaigned on removing the Department of 403 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 7: Education since Jimmy Carter created. 404 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 2: Fair French Child. Thank you so much. 405 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 7: Great to be with you. 406 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 2: Look forward to seeing you see you again post debate. 407 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:05,639 Speaker 2: She has a family that was fifty miles outside Warsaw, Poland, and, 408 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,679 Speaker 2: as she stated in the speech, in Warsaw years ago, 409 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 2: too many did not make it out the carnage of 410 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 2: World War Two. She did to Brooklyn. Her father was 411 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 2: a physician, took patients on their first floor of where 412 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 2: they lived in Bay Ridge. She did pretty good in 413 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 2: economics for. 414 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 1: The US, the kinds of metrics that we would monitor 415 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:35,919 Speaker 1: that would summarize risks, whether it's asset valuations or the 416 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: degree of leverage. Things look good, there are not I 417 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 1: don't see red lights flashing. Well, there are risks. It 418 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 1: really has been amazing to be able to get inflation 419 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 1: down as meaningfully as we have. This is what most 420 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:58,080 Speaker 1: people would call a saft landing. Certainly may go back there, 421 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: you know, would welcome a visit by my counter Chinese counterpart. 422 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 2: Bottle it. That's all I can say. He went down 423 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 2: to Texas. It was a little table with the chairman 424 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 2: of the federies or she still talks like she's chairman 425 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 2: of the Fed, not Secretary of Treasury. And David Gerra 426 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 2: it was just pritty. What was different about this conversation 427 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,360 Speaker 2: versus the usual midweek media frenzy. 428 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 8: It lasted an hour, and you know that it's always 429 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 8: great to get as much time as you can with 430 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 8: a guest. But I think that she was able to 431 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 8: kind of move away from what she's accustomed to talking. 432 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 8: She's very careful speaker. She wants to, you know, not 433 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 8: upset markets, would be very cautious. But I think that 434 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,479 Speaker 8: we were able to get into a lot of the 435 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 8: history that you're describing. She stayed with James Tobin at Yale, 436 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 8: went from Brooklyn to the New Haven to Cambridge, met 437 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 8: her husband at the FED, and has had this very 438 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 8: distinguished career. We're able to get into all of that. 439 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 8: And it wasn't an exit interview. She hasn't said she's leaving. 440 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,400 Speaker 8: I pushed her on that. I said, which you stick 441 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 8: around if Vice President Harris wins. But it did feel 442 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 8: like it was a moment when she could look back 443 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 8: on her achieved It's not just in this job, but 444 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 8: in all of these marquee jobs that she's had in 445 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:06,160 Speaker 8: other administrations in Washington. 446 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 4: Tom, how does she feel about this US economy? 447 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 2: Here? 448 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 4: We had the jobs report on Friday? Is a soft landing? 449 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 4: Is a reasonable landing for the economy? Still what she's sing? 450 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 8: She believes it. And so there were two parts to 451 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,399 Speaker 8: this trip. I mean I went down a little early, 452 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 8: and so did she. She visited this IRS processing center 453 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 8: in Austin, and it was fun to see her try 454 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 8: to use one of these new male sorting machines and. 455 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 2: All of that. 456 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 8: But that was right after the job's numbers came out, 457 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 8: and she said that the jobs market, to her eyes, 458 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 8: is still healthy and strong. And I pushed her on that, 459 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 8: but she said that she's looking at all of the 460 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 8: economic data together. As Tom was saying, she a former 461 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 8: fed share is still thinking about that dashboard and looking 462 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 8: at all of looking at all of this, and she 463 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 8: still feels confident, but is of course aware of where 464 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 8: the trend seems to be going. And as we're talking about, 465 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 8: you know, she's a trained labor economist. This is what 466 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,959 Speaker 8: animates or this is what has driven her through her 467 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 8: career in academia and in public sector as well, I. 468 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 2: Mean there's any number of issues here, including her husband's 469 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 2: a Nobel prize when her night Buster, her chucks about 470 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: it all the time. But Paul Sweetey, she codified the 471 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 2: word slack. I mean, she owns the word slack within 472 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 2: economics and was heated on that during the Great Financial Crisis. 473 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 4: You know, a lot of our discussion that Tom and 474 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,439 Speaker 4: I had on Friday with this job's number was if 475 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 4: you just look at the headline numbers of four point 476 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 4: two percent on you know, the headline numbers look okay, 477 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 4: and I guess that's what Yellen is looking at. However, 478 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 4: we had some people say, if you look at the 479 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 4: recent trends, it is softening. So if you're the Fed, 480 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 4: you got to get out ahead of the curve. Did 481 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 4: she have any comment about maybe some of the recent 482 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 4: trends and is that causing her any concern? 483 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 8: Well, in terms of the trend she talked a lot 484 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 8: about wages, and she points to that as sort of 485 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 8: a bit of a bit of bright light. But I 486 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 8: think what you're getting out in part is would she 487 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 8: have any advice or counsel for the current FED chair 488 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 8: with whom she wouldn't? I mean, that's where she's most studious. 489 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 8: It's not kind of dispensing advice or anything prescriptive toward 490 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 8: the FED. But to the point about the soft landing, 491 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,360 Speaker 8: she believes it's entirely possible on track for them. 492 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,680 Speaker 2: What's the debate look like? You're busy? I mean you're 493 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 2: in Texas. 494 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 8: I didn't get the direct Austin to Philly flight train 495 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 8: for me. 496 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 2: There. 497 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,360 Speaker 8: I understanding, yes, and I will take that down. Tells 498 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 8: us regularly. 499 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 2: Yes, what's going to be the girl surprise at the debate? 500 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 6: Well? 501 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 8: What I'm It's funny. I think back on that last 502 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 8: debate between Trump and Biden, and we knew from the 503 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 8: get go this wasn't going the way that the Biden 504 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 8: campaign plans, So it was the it was the immediate visual. 505 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 8: I think that's something similar is going to be at 506 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 8: play here in Philadelphia. These two people have not seen 507 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 8: each other in the same room before. Of course, they 508 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 8: haven't debated before that moment. When we see how they 509 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 8: interact and what the atmosphere is going to be like 510 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 8: in that room at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, 511 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 8: I think is going to be hugely important. I mean, yes, 512 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 8: Kamala Harris has debated before we think of the zinger 513 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 8: that she had with Mike Pence. I'm speaking when he 514 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 8: interrupted her after the vice presidential debate. This is a 515 00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 8: big moment for both of these candidates, the only one 516 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 8: that's on the calendar so far. And you look at 517 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,719 Speaker 8: the latest polling from the New York Times sen of College. 518 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 8: There are a lot of Americans who say, look, I'm 519 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 8: familiar with Donald Trump. I know what animates him, how 520 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 8: he operates. She is still a bit of an enigma. 521 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 8: Voters want to know more about her, yes, what her 522 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 8: policies are, but also sort of what animates her and 523 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 8: how she comports herself. And this will be perhaps the 524 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 8: moment during this campaign when a lot of people will 525 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:19,879 Speaker 8: see that. 526 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 4: Do you think her camp is saying, go toe to 527 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 4: toe with former President Trump or maybe just stick to 528 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,239 Speaker 4: policy and not get engaged in where where he may 529 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 4: want to go, you know, in terms of rhetoric. 530 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 8: I read deeply over the weekend in terms of how 531 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 8: she is preparing. She's been holed up in Pittsburgh at 532 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 8: the Omni Hotel for five days going through traditional debate prep. 533 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 8: And I mentioned that moment with Mike Pens that was 534 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 8: seen as a great moment by supporters of Vice President 535 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 8: Harris and her team as well. Look, we're going to 536 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 8: have these muted mics again, it's going to be hard 537 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 8: to get that kind of immunity. Yes, there will be 538 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 8: muted mics. Tom is taped over the button or unable 539 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,159 Speaker 8: to do it, but yes, we will have it. That 540 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 8: will limit her ability to kind of get some moment 541 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,639 Speaker 8: like that out of Donald Trump. It's fice to say 542 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,920 Speaker 8: they're trying to find ways to get him animated and 543 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 8: to to sort of step out in the kind of 544 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 8: prepared mode that he would have on. 545 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,920 Speaker 2: Standy and the Girl travels. I mean, he's down in Texas. 546 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 2: So what are you do in Texas? You buyas stetson 547 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,920 Speaker 2: except there made. They were made in Philadelphia originally, Yes, 548 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 2: did you really buy us? 549 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 8: I went to Alan's Boots on South Congress, and this 550 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 8: was impulsive. But then you get in there and you 551 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 8: start talking to the folks who know all about it. 552 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 8: So I bought an open road stetson. It was fitted. 553 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 8: This is the LBJ dial stetson. 554 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 2: How large was? 555 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, I'll bring it in. I didn't want to bring it. 556 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 2: You're gonna look like you gotta deal with Warner Brothers 557 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 2: down in nash. 558 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,679 Speaker 4: Yes, I should should today. 559 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,239 Speaker 8: I will say another highlight for me, if I can 560 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 8: allow it was Julia Cornado kindly came to the event 561 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,640 Speaker 8: itself and we got some Margarita's on Sixth Street afterwards, 562 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 8: and so she sends her regards back to. 563 00:26:55,359 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 2: You, doctor of course. Uh what'd five and fifty beeps? 564 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 8: I think that she is left. I don't want to 565 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:08,159 Speaker 8: speak for her, but I think that she sees the 566 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,160 Speaker 8: she sees the reasoning for a fifty people. We'll see 567 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 8: if Powell agrees. 568 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 2: This will be an interview again. I really can't say 569 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: enough about it, David Gurl's lengthy interview with the Secretary 570 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 2: of Treasury two years, five years, ten years from now. 571 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 2: That will be a really important view into Chairman Yellen's 572 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 2: views on where we are in her public So whatever 573 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,440 Speaker 2: you agree or disagree with, her public service to the 574 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 2: nation has been extraord Are you going to do the 575 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 2: big take today or yes? 576 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 8: And it'll be drawn from that so I know that 577 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 8: the full version is available on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. 578 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,679 Speaker 8: Will do one that has a been in my commentary 579 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:48,440 Speaker 8: as well around it, and I will say, you know, 580 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,360 Speaker 8: Janet Yellen goes out to eat and all these place 581 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 8: where she was. She went to Waterburger in Austin, So 582 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 8: we kind of began there because she's a big in 583 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 8: and out devote as well, and I asked her which 584 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 8: one is better. That's how we kick off the interview. Ohroversial, 585 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,159 Speaker 8: they both have they both have good quality. 586 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 2: I mean she was embarrassing. She sent a car up 587 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,199 Speaker 2: to U Street and Ben's Chili Bowl. Yeah, in London 588 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:25,360 Speaker 2: and Washington, it's just three times a week, David. Girl. Yeah, 589 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 2: the front pages. I looked at the Boston Red Sox. 590 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 2: They're destined the front pages. The Lisa Mateo hour, Lisa, 591 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 2: what do you got? 592 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:33,880 Speaker 4: All right, this is Paul. 593 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 9: I know you love a good steak, right, good source 594 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 9: of protein, vitamins, mineral last night, I want to win 595 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 9: the girl. 596 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 2: There you go. 597 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 9: You're not alone. American men are actually eating more food 598 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 9: in the meat, poultry, eggs category. But you knew that 599 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 9: word was coming. But it's a little bit more than 600 00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 9: federal guidelines recommend eating too much, especially processed red meat, 601 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 9: sliced ham, bacon, linked to health problems. You know that 602 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,520 Speaker 9: heart disease stroke. The reason why though the wall Street 603 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 9: Journal is saying this is happening is because of that 604 00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 9: rise in protein diets, keto diet, carnivore diet. I'm not 605 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 9: sure if that's your reason for indulging. 606 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 4: I don't once a month. 607 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:14,239 Speaker 9: Okay, so that's the thing. 608 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,720 Speaker 4: You're You're in the right category. 609 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 9: Here's another thing. Experts are saying. Men association associate meat 610 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 9: with strength and power, so maybe that's why they like 611 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 9: it a little bit more than women. 612 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 4: Stays men New York City. 613 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 2: It's a thing along the same route in Barrens. I 614 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,320 Speaker 2: saw this Neil Templan, Good morning, Barons, love looking at you. 615 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 4: Yeh. 616 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 2: Saturday mornings, doctors and health experts are changing their minds 617 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 2: about whole milk in cheese. Would they just make up 618 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 2: their minds? I think like on butter or we've gone 619 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 2: like well that. 620 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 4: Can forth on the sixth floor Bloomberg. There's like twenty 621 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 4: seven different fridays of milk. But the reality is you 622 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 4: get whole milk from a cow. 623 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 9: Everything else just yes, it gets confusing because there's so 624 00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 9: many different kinds and do you go whole milk do 625 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 9: you go the two percent? 626 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 2: So we're all dying to know at Costco when you 627 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 2: got the three cards lined up, which milk. 628 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 8: Is in the matabo we do the lactage. 629 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:15,080 Speaker 4: I feel so sorry. So it's just the poor children. 630 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 4: I'm thinking about the children. 631 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 2: It's a great I got to read this article Neil Templin, 632 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 2: thank you for that from Baron's next for this was. 633 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 9: In screen Time. This one I pointed out because the 634 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 9: number of people who pay for some kind of TV 635 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 9: bundle we were just talking about this is falling down 636 00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 9: by four million so far this year. This is according 637 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 9: to an investment research firm, and that includes YouTube TV. 638 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 9: So media executives are saying that a certain share of 639 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 9: the population is going to continue to pay for the 640 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,640 Speaker 9: channels like the older folks and yes, me who has 641 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 9: to do it for the sports things, for the hobby. 642 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 9: But today you can watch you know, NFL and Peacock 643 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 9: Paramount plus Amazon. So it's this whole you know, back 644 00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:54,800 Speaker 9: and forth with this as well. We also mentioned YouTube, 645 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 9: so Nielsen saying Americans spent more time watching YouTube on 646 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 9: their TV sets in July then all of the networks 647 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 9: and streaming services owned by Walt Disney. So it's just 648 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 9: an interesting kind of perspective to see where things are headed. 649 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 4: And where it will go from. 650 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 2: Where's it in two years, Paul? Three years for it? 651 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 2: Trend just continuous. 652 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 4: The trend continues. I guess there's some floor for people 653 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 4: like me. A certain demo is that forty percent of 654 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 4: households as opposed to eighty percent of households I paid 655 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 4: for TV in the past. I don't know, but it's 656 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 4: it's a much smaller number, and it is just brutal 657 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 4: economics for the big media. 658 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 2: We have studied this and studied this, folks, and this 659 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 2: is just one big Bloomberg surveillance experience experiment. I should say, 660 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 2: I can't say. The early indications of our international reach 661 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 2: on YouTube are just jaw dropping. Good morning, Bencock in 662 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 2: the good evening of the Pacific Room. Next, Lisa, I love. 663 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,920 Speaker 9: That the peak of Atlantic hurricane season is starting to 664 00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 9: get underway, right, But this new bank rate survey, it 665 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 9: shows that a lot more homeowners they aren't really financially 666 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 9: prepared for these extreme weather things. One in four say 667 00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 9: they're unprepared for it like a hurricane, tornado, wildfire, flooding. 668 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 9: The Wall Street Journal has an article about this I'm 669 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 9: not too long ago, showing the increase and how much 670 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 9: more people are paying for this, but fifteen percent say 671 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 9: they won't be able to even pay the deductible without 672 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 9: going into debt if something were to happen. So it's 673 00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 9: kind of like an open your eyes thing, mainly in the. 674 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,120 Speaker 4: South and the West. I was usually for that riding 675 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 4: the vespa around the Jersey Shore yesterday and it came 676 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:25,920 Speaker 4: across this measurement where to show where the high water 677 00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 4: mark was for Superstorm Sandy. It was twice my height, 678 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 4: so it's like twelve thirteen feet and I knocked around 679 00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 4: and there were houses everywhere. They must have been just 680 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 4: all destroyed in there. All of course new I don't 681 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:40,560 Speaker 4: know what folks there do. 682 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 2: My father was in a fire zone in California and 683 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 2: there's some serious fires out in the West Coast in 684 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,400 Speaker 2: the terrible heat right now, and they could only ensure 685 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:50,120 Speaker 2: half the house. 686 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and they just so you could do it. 687 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,000 Speaker 2: You can just ensure half your No, they were told 688 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 2: they didn't have a choice. 689 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 4: That happened to our house on California. We finally lost 690 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 4: a insurance, so we had to go to Lloyd's of 691 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,560 Speaker 4: London to get insurance. Those are the people that secure 692 00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,280 Speaker 4: like ships going through the you know, Swiss Canal. That's 693 00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 4: the last line of insurance for people in California. That's 694 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 4: how great. 695 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:12,800 Speaker 2: You had to cut the kids off from their cell phone. 696 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:18,400 Speaker 9: Bills till next Okay, South Korea might have the lowest 697 00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 9: birth rate, right, but it's people. They still want to 698 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 9: create a family, so they're trading in baby strollers for 699 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,280 Speaker 9: pet strollers. Okay, So, sales of dog strollers last year 700 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 9: outpaced those of baby strollers for. 701 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 4: The first time. 702 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 9: That's according to one of South Korea's largest online retailers. 703 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 9: It's even for strong in the first six months of 704 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 9: the year. They just feel like they they're they're not 705 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 9: having exactly, they're not having any more children. They just 706 00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,600 Speaker 9: say it's too expensive or whatever their reasoning is. But 707 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 9: they're doing the dog strollers. 708 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,680 Speaker 4: They don't like the dog strollers. 709 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 9: Please tell me you don't ride kennel Fee Central Park. 710 00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,960 Speaker 2: Had a tantrum and won't get in it. Canl fee 711 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 2: all over it. Really, she's sitting there looking out like 712 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 2: she owns the territory. It's okay, it's not her, miss, 713 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:08,360 Speaker 2: but you know it's a dog stroller. 714 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:09,359 Speaker 6: I just can't. 715 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 9: I saw a woman she had the dog stroller, but 716 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,800 Speaker 9: then her little toddler was walking along like something's not 717 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:17,279 Speaker 9: right here. 718 00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:22,520 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, you just wonder, Like at the debate tomorrow night, 719 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,200 Speaker 2: I get it. Henrietta Treszo says, they're going to do 720 00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 2: the border and they're going to do abortion. Can somebody 721 00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 2: just talk about childcare in America? Ye? Would that be? 722 00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 5: Like? 723 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 2: Can we get fifteen seconds? Like what's the plan? Yeah? Yep, 724 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:38,680 Speaker 2: And I know a lot of our listeners will say 725 00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 2: there is no plan. No, that's the way we want it. 726 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,439 Speaker 4: And it's a huge i mean post pandemic when people 727 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 4: were home taking care of their kids. Now they have 728 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 4: to go back to work, and it just resurfaces this 729 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,919 Speaker 4: whole challenge once again. And Matt Miller raises it because 730 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:53,200 Speaker 4: he just came back, you know, a year or two 731 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,719 Speaker 4: ago from Berlin and they had great you know, child care. 732 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 2: He's got like four kids over it. 733 00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 4: He's working on it. A late starter, but you always 734 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:02,200 Speaker 4: catching up. 735 00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo on the newspapers, Thank you so much. Thank you. 736 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,959 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast bringing you the best 737 00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:14,759 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 738 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,840 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 739 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube. To see the show weekday mornings from 740 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,320 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 741 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 742 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 743 00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:37,359 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.