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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car

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Speaker 2: Play and then Proud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Keeping an eye on what's happening across the Swing States today,

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump going to appear in Michigan and later on Wisconsin,

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Speaker 3: while the Democratic ticket is wrapping up a second day

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Speaker 3: of its best tour in Georgia. That's what Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: and Tim Wallas have been doing since yesterday. They will

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Speaker 3: of course sit down later today, actually in about forty

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Speaker 3: five minutes for an interview, the first big one they

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Speaker 3: will have done since they became the Democratic ticket, on

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Speaker 3: CNN Air at nine pm Eastern time. And then of

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Speaker 3: course they will have a big rally in Savannah to

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Speaker 3: wrap up their tour of the Peach State. And it

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Speaker 3: comes at a time in which they are pulling better

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Speaker 3: in the Peach stat or at least Harris is doing

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Speaker 3: better than Biden was at the time that he dropped

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Speaker 3: out of the race. So let's get into what's going

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Speaker 3: down in Georgia and turn to that state. Someone very

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Speaker 3: familiar with it, Andre Gillespie, is joining me from Emory University,

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Speaker 3: where she is Associate political science professor. Andre. Always great

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Speaker 3: to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. When

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Speaker 3: we consider this notion that Kamala Harris and Tim Walls

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Speaker 3: are not just investing time and resources in Georgia, they're

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Speaker 3: specifically going to more rural areas of the state that

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Speaker 3: have a high concentration of black voters, is that is

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Speaker 3: what actually is putting Georgia in play for them.

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Speaker 4: Well, Georgia's in play because the public opinion polls suggests

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Speaker 4: that Vice President Harris is doing better than President Biden

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Speaker 4: was when he was the candidate. So Joe Biden could

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Speaker 4: still make the claim that most polls had him within

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Speaker 4: the statistical margin of error of Joe Biden of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Excuse me, but the trajectory was headed in the wrong direction,

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Speaker 4: and it was very likely because there were some polls

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Speaker 4: that were indicating it in June that there were going

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Speaker 4: to be more polls where Donald Trump was going to

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Speaker 4: be clearly ahead of Joe Biden, so statistically outside of

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Speaker 4: double what the margin of error was. Since Kamala Harris

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Speaker 4: has entered the race. There have been a couple of

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Speaker 4: polls that have suggested that she's ahead, but all of

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Speaker 4: these polls put Biden Harrison Trump within a couple of

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Speaker 4: percentage points of each other, which is clearly a statistical tie.

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Speaker 4: So that suggests that Georgia is still in play. Now

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Speaker 4: that being said, Georgia still has more Republicans than Democrats

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Speaker 4: in the state, and so if Kamala Harris wants to

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Speaker 4: win the state, she's got to have a massive mobilization

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Speaker 4: campaign that does better than Donald Trump's machine does and

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Speaker 4: gets every possible Democratic voter out. And so what that

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Speaker 4: means is you cannot just concentrate on Atlanta and think

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Speaker 4: you've done your job. You've got to find Democratic voters

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Speaker 4: wherever they are. And the truth is is that they're

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Speaker 4: all over the state and Atlanta isn't the only blue

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Speaker 4: spot in the state of Georgia.

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Speaker 3: Well, and when we consider who those Democratic voters actually

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Speaker 3: are who they might be, it is of course worth

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Speaker 3: noting that Georgia does have one of the highest black

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Speaker 3: populations of any state in the country. How much of

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Speaker 3: what Harris needs to do is appeal to that demographic,

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Speaker 3: specifically when they were not as supportive of Joe Biden

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Speaker 3: it seemed in this cycle than they were in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if you don't have strong support amongst African American voters,

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Speaker 4: So that's not just in terms of vote choice the

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Speaker 4: percentage of Black voters who support the Democratic ticket, but

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Speaker 4: it's also in terms of voter turnout, you're dooming a

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Speaker 4: failure because Black voters make up more than half of

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Speaker 4: all Democratic voters in the state of Georgia. So you

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Speaker 4: have to have that strong base of support and then

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Speaker 4: you have to build on it. So that does include

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Speaker 4: college educated liberals in the Metro Atlanta suburbs. That includes

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Speaker 4: Latino voters who are spread across the state and might

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Speaker 4: not necessarily be in the urban centers in the state.

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Speaker 4: That includes Asian American voters in the suburbs. And so

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Speaker 4: this idea that you have to campaign across the whole

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Speaker 4: state and make sure that you overperform everywhere is going

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Speaker 4: to be the ticket to Kamala Harris being able to

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Speaker 4: win the state. If she can't do this, then she's

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Speaker 4: not going to win the state.

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Speaker 3: Well, so let's talk then about her opponent who could

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Speaker 3: win the state. Donald Trump, of course, was within twelve

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Speaker 3: thousand votes roughly of Joe Biden in twenty twenty, but

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Speaker 3: ultimately lost it. Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, who

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Speaker 3: has had some difficulty with his relationship with Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: or maybe it's Donald Trump who's having difficulty navigating the

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Speaker 3: Kemp relationship on or give with down in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Brian Kemp is obviously a very popular figure in Georgia

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Speaker 3: and that's born out in polling or seeing just today.

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Speaker 3: How do we need to consider that relationship and what

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump needs to do in regard to Brian Kemp

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Speaker 3: to get those who might support him. Kemp, the governor

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Speaker 3: in Georgia on Donald Trump's side.

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Speaker 4: Well, the issue with Donald Trump's iire was is he

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Speaker 4: was lashing out publicly against somebody whose political machine he

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Speaker 4: needs in order to be able to win the state.

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Speaker 4: And so many people argue that it was self defeating

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Speaker 4: for Donald Trump to, you know, four years later and

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Speaker 4: even too years after his own gubernatorial candidate lost to

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Speaker 4: Brian Kemp in the primaries. It didn't make sense for

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Speaker 4: Trump to continually attack Brian Kemp, who was a popular

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Speaker 4: governor in the state, So we've seen a rap Prochmont.

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Speaker 4: Brian Kemp is still a Republican. He's still probably going

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Speaker 4: to support the Republican ticket regardless of what happens to

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Speaker 4: in his relationship with Donald Trump. And many of us

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Speaker 4: in Georgia think that he harbors higher political aspirations for

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Speaker 4: the US Senate, so he wouldn't want to alienate the

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Speaker 4: Trump base, who he's going to want to support him

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Speaker 4: in a Republican primary. And so what we see here

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Speaker 4: is just a pragmatic meeting of the minds. Brian Kemp

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Speaker 4: is going to support Donald Trump, He's fundraising for him,

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Speaker 4: and he's going to avail former President Trump of his

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Speaker 4: mobilization operation. And again this is because whichever side does

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Speaker 4: the best job of getting their people out is going

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Speaker 4: to be the one to win. And so Republicans still

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Speaker 4: have a margin in the state. They still have a buffer,

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Speaker 4: but it's not as big as it used to be.

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Speaker 4: So you cannot have lackluster turnout among Republicans and expect

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Speaker 4: to be guaranteed a victory in the state in the

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Speaker 4: way that you might have been able to bank on

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Speaker 4: that twenty years ago.

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Speaker 3: Well, I did catch up with Governor Kemp at the

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Speaker 3: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee earlier this summer, who did

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Speaker 3: make it clear that he is supporting Donald Trump, he

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Speaker 3: wants him to win Georgia, but has said then and

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Speaker 3: said repeatedly even now, that there is really no real

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Speaker 3: path for Donald Trump to win if he doesn't win Georgia.

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Speaker 3: How should we be considering the map here the way

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Speaker 3: it has expanded andrette seems for Kamala Harris to some

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Speaker 3: of these stun Belt states, Georgia inclusive, and how now

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Speaker 3: that may shift strategies for both campaigns Trump included.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, so if we think about the wall,

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Speaker 4: and we think about the seven competitive states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 4: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the Sunbelt states actually

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Speaker 4: contribute fewer electoral college votes to the margins, and so

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Speaker 4: most analysts assume that Donald Trump has already banked about

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Speaker 4: two hundred and nineteen electoral college votes, has sixteen of

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Speaker 4: those votes, It shares second place in terms of being

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Speaker 4: the largest share of votes of any of these remaining

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Speaker 4: battleground states. So North Carolina is certainly in play. He

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Speaker 4: would need both of those and Arizona and Nevada to

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Speaker 4: be able to get over the hump to two hundred

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Speaker 4: and seventy Electoral College votes. That's assuming that Kamala Harris

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Speaker 4: wins the rust belt states. So you know, it's Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump's path to victory will probably almost by necessity, require

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Speaker 4: that he win five states. Pennsylvania is always going to

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Speaker 4: be the plumb prize because it's the largest of those states.

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Speaker 4: And if you win Pennsylvania, then if you win the

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Speaker 4: larger states, you can take four of those states. But

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Speaker 4: if Arizona's going to be part of this discussion then

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Speaker 4: and if Nevada is going to be part of this

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Speaker 4: discussion in terms of a must win state, that actually

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Speaker 4: probably puts the probability of needing five states in order

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Speaker 4: to be able to carry the math.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, andre I caught up on this show yesterday with

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Speaker 3: large from the co chair of the RNC who told

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Speaker 3: me that she does see margins tightening in the state

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Speaker 3: of Pennsylvania and they're considering investing more resources in that

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Speaker 3: state as a result. I do want to talk as

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Speaker 3: well before we let you go, Ondra, about the interview

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Speaker 3: that Harrison Walls will be sitting down for together within

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Speaker 3: the next hour will of course air this evening. What

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Speaker 3: is it that Kamala Harris is going to need to

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Speaker 3: most answer for in this interview for Georgia's and voter

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Speaker 3: who may not yet be decided whether or not they

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Speaker 3: want to vote for her, and frankly undecided voters in

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Speaker 3: these key states across the board.

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Speaker 4: Well, she's been attacked a lot about flip flapping on issues,

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Speaker 4: so she's going to have to explain her evolution on issues,

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Speaker 4: and it's going to have to be credible. The big

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Speaker 4: thing that she's going to have to do is she's

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Speaker 4: going to have to speak clearly and not make gaffs

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Speaker 4: and present herself as relatable and ready to lead. You know,

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Speaker 4: I think this is still very much going to be

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Speaker 4: a campaign about vibes, in part because character, I think

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Speaker 4: can be characterized as a vibe issue about how candidates

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Speaker 4: are are going to make you feel, and so she's

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Speaker 4: going to have to present that case as well. But basic,

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Speaker 4: she's going to have to present herself as being able

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Speaker 4: to handle tough questions, questions that she hasn't seen before,

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Speaker 4: so that she can counter the Republican argument that she's

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Speaker 4: slippery in that she's basically kind of you know, a

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Speaker 4: shadow type of candidate who really has no substance behind her.

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Speaker 3: Just really quickly. Andre obviously we hear a Bloomberg TV

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Speaker 3: and radio want to focus on policy. Policy specifically is

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Speaker 3: where our interest lies. And we're hoping maybe we'll get

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Speaker 3: answers from Kamala Harris on some of that tonight. But

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Speaker 3: is it going to be about policy in the selection

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Speaker 3: or can someone actually win on vibes alone?

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Speaker 4: You know, part of the issue with vibes is making

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Speaker 4: sure that you're conveying empathy and that you understand the

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Speaker 4: problems that the average American voter fases. And so you

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Speaker 4: are going to have to name check issues. I think

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Speaker 4: it becomes a question of how much detail do you

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Speaker 4: need to be do you need to provide in order

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Speaker 4: to be convincing, and so like, I don't necessarily know

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Speaker 4: that all voters are going to be looking at white

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Speaker 4: papers and they're going to be looking at the specificity

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Speaker 4: of policies, but they do want to hear that you've

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Speaker 4: thought about some issues and that you have some reasonable

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Speaker 4: ideas for how to tackle those issues, and that you

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Speaker 4: can communicate that effectively.

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Speaker 3: All right, So maybe the vibes have to be justified.

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Speaker 3: Andre Gillespie, Yes, always great to have me. Thank you

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Speaker 3: so much for joining Associate political science professor at Emory University.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio,

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Speaker 3: where we are always keeping track of the latest polling,

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Speaker 3: including a new poll that came out today from Fox

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Speaker 3: News that looked specifically at the Sun Belt States. This

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Speaker 3: was a poll done in the aftermath of last week's

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Speaker 3: Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and after RFK Junior, of course,

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Speaker 3: who was the third party candidate, suspended his presidential campaign

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Speaker 3: and endorsed Donald Trump. And what this Fox poll finds

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Speaker 3: in the Sun Belt is as follows. Kamala Harris up

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Speaker 3: by one point in Arizona. In Georgia and Nevada, it's

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Speaker 3: Harris up by two points. Donald Trump, however, is up

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Speaker 3: by one point in North Carolina. Now I would note

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Speaker 3: all of these figures are within the margin of error,

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Speaker 3: but they still point to an incredibly tight race in

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Speaker 3: some of these states that up until roughly six weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: it looked like they were Donald Trump's to lose, as

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden was pulling much more poorly than Kamala Harris

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Speaker 3: is now in these states, including of course North Carolina,

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Speaker 3: which also happens to be the home state of the

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Speaker 3: co chair of the RNC and Trump's daughter in law

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Speaker 3: Laura Trump. I talked to her about it yesterday.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, well, listen, North Carolina is definitely a state where

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Speaker 5: we've seen some movement. It looked very positive for Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump and whenever he was going against Joe Biden, it

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Speaker 5: still shows Donald Trump up on Kamala Haras. But we

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Speaker 5: want to make sure that we increase that lead, so

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Speaker 5: we certainly aren't prepared to put more money into that state.

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Speaker 3: So for more on the state of the race and

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Speaker 3: the states in which more resources are being deployed by

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Speaker 3: both campaigns, Our Political Panel joins me now Rick Davis,

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Speaker 3: Stone Court Capital Partner, Republican strategist, and Bloomberg Politics contributor,

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Speaker 3: together with Kristin Han, Democratic strategist and partner at Rock Solutions, Rick,

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Speaker 3: I'll come to you on this first, as you obviously

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Speaker 3: have plenty of experience deciding how to allocate resources. Is

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Speaker 3: it North Carolina where Trump and the RNC need to

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Speaker 3: think about spending more money? Is it Georgia where Harrison

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Speaker 3: Walls are today? Is it all of the above, and

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Speaker 3: how do they do that when they don't have the

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Speaker 3: cash advantage right now?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a tricky situation for the Trump campaign. As

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Speaker 6: you've been pointing out. This new Fox Bowl shows at

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Speaker 6: eight point swing in a month to Harris from Trump,

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Speaker 6: this is really bad news. One because trajectorily, they're on

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Speaker 6: the wrong path. They're losing support rather than gaining support.

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Speaker 6: And two, as has been mentioned in this broadcast already today,

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Speaker 6: Georgia is critical to Trump's path to two seventy electoral votes,

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Speaker 6: and so he's got the electoral vote math going fevershly

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Speaker 6: right now because they're trying to figure out what could

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Speaker 6: we string together in order to be able to find

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Speaker 6: that magic two seventy and just a month ago, he

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Speaker 6: was sitting on a pile of those options, and he

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Speaker 6: probably had five or six ways of getting to that

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Speaker 6: magic number when as for the sloot very few. So

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Speaker 6: it's still very much focused on Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign's

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Speaker 6: pouring resources into there. But the reality is, as you

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Speaker 6: point out, Kayley, they can't compete dollar for dollar on TV,

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Speaker 6: and so they've got to get Donald Trump out of

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Speaker 6: mar Lago and onto the campaign trail where they can

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Speaker 6: dominate the news media. You know, yesterday he had no

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Speaker 6: campaign events, and so you know today he'll be traveling

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Speaker 6: to a couple of the states Wisconsin, Michigan that are critical.

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Speaker 6: But he can't take days off. They don't have that

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Speaker 6: kind of optionality. They've got to focus him on doing

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Speaker 6: more with less, and I don't see that strategy being

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Speaker 6: employed right now.

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Speaker 3: Well, on the subject of trying to do more, the

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Speaker 3: Financial Times just reporting that JD. Vance, of course, Trump's

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Speaker 3: running mate, is now urging Peter Tiel, of course, the

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Speaker 3: tech billionaire who Vance has a long standing relationship with,

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Speaker 3: to get off the sidelines and help bankroll his and

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump's bid for the White House. So perhaps trying

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Speaker 3: to inject some more funding into this give them more

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Speaker 3: resources to compete across these states, Kristen, But just to

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Speaker 3: come to you on kind of this same question. The

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Speaker 3: same arguably goes for Kamala Harris to what extent should

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Speaker 3: resources be invested most aggressively in the blue Wall Michigan

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Speaker 3: and Wisconsin. Rick was just talking about Pennsylvania as well,

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Speaker 3: and then how should she consider spending it in states

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Speaker 3: that aren't necessarily must wins for her but might be

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Speaker 3: nice to have.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think that the path to victory, or the

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Speaker 7: multiple paths to victory have really kind of expanded since

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Speaker 7: Kamala took over the ticket. So you know, I think

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Speaker 7: it's obviously extraordinarily important that that we invest in the

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Speaker 7: blue Wall. I mean that just goes without saying. But

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Speaker 7: if you're seeing states where we have an opportunity like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia,

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Speaker 7: I think that with the influx of cash, we're able

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Speaker 7: to go in and spend some resources there. And I'll

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Speaker 7: also point to the you know, not only the the

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Speaker 7: number of events campaign rallies that are all over the place,

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Speaker 7: the infrastructure that was originally set up by the Biden

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Speaker 7: campaign is really unprecedented in a lot of these states.

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Speaker 7: So that'll be we call it, you know, boots on

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Speaker 7: the ground, people knocking on doors is going to be

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Speaker 7: really important in these states, and I know the campaign

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Speaker 7: is investing heavily in that as well.

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Speaker 3: There's also demographics I want to talk about here. In

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Speaker 3: this Fox poll in the sun Belt, they find that

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Speaker 3: Harris is receiving seventy nine percent support among Black voters

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Speaker 3: and fifty six percent among Hispanics. And there's also a

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Speaker 3: separate poll out today from USA Today and Suffolk University,

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Speaker 3: which is a national poll, so we have to keep

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Speaker 3: that in mind. But of likely voters, that finds nationally

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Speaker 3: Harris is up on Trump forty eight to forty three percent.

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Speaker 3: But the demographics are fascinating. With Hispanics, they went from

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Speaker 3: supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by sixteen points.

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Speaker 3: For Black voters, they move from supporting Biden by just

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Speaker 3: forty seven points to Harris now by sixty four points.

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Speaker 3: The spread in Black voters between Harris and Trump seventy

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Speaker 3: six to twelve percent. Kristen, what is that signal to you?

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Speaker 7: I mean, it's signals very good things for the Democrats.

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Speaker 7: We know that, you know, the black voters have always

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Speaker 7: played a critical world, particularly black women voters, in taking

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Speaker 7: us over the finish line. You just have to look

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Speaker 7: back four years to the last presidential election between Trump

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Speaker 7: and Biden to see that that is true. So I think,

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Speaker 7: you know, this is where you've seen the campaign also

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Speaker 7: with the younger voters prioritizing talking to content content creators

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Speaker 7: because they realize that people are getting their news from

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Speaker 7: all different kinds of sources, not just network television. So

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Speaker 7: you know, it's an interesting dynamic one that is positive

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Speaker 7: for the Democrats. And I think that, you know, I

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Speaker 7: think Coach Wallace said at the convention that was right.

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Speaker 7: I mean, it was anecdotal. He was talking about, you know,

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Speaker 7: driving down the field, we're down.

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Speaker 4: By a.

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Speaker 7: Field goal, about needing to persist that that's going to

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Speaker 7: be really important going forward. Rick.

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Speaker 3: If Donald Trump wants to arrest the swing back toward

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Speaker 3: Harris that voters of color seem to have underway right now,

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Speaker 3: how should he do so? What is the message that

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Speaker 3: actually matters to these groups? Obviously neither of them are

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Speaker 3: a monolith that should go said, But how could he

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Speaker 3: reach back out to them and get the support that

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Speaker 3: he was gaining when Biden was still the Democratic.

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Speaker 6: Nominee and he's still got to appeal to them on

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Speaker 6: economic factors. We know from the focus groups that we've

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Speaker 6: seen all throughout this election that especially young black men,

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Speaker 6: felt like they had more disposable income in the four

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Speaker 6: years of Donald Trump's presidency than they've had in the

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Speaker 6: Biden presidency. He's got to keep hammering home those economic

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Speaker 6: message to that group specifically. And look, I mean, Kamala

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Speaker 6: Harris still doesn't have the numbers that Joe Biden had

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Speaker 6: on election Day in twenty twenty. Right, this is a

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Speaker 6: big shift back to the Democratic base for a lot

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Speaker 6: of these voters. But she is still subpar when it

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Speaker 6: comes to the winning margins that Joe Biden had. And

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Speaker 6: of course we know he only won by a fraction

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Speaker 6: of a percentage point most of these states where he

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Speaker 6: declared victory. So this is still an incredibly close election.

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Speaker 6: And I do think that the Trump campaign is posed

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Speaker 6: with a real dilemma, which is do we go after

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Speaker 6: those persuadable young men African American who lives in ex

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Speaker 6: verbs without college educations, or do we try and pump

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Speaker 6: up our white vot boy vote in rural America and

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Speaker 6: try to do that as an offset. And of course

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Speaker 6: that's what you see playing out today in Georgia with

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Speaker 6: the southern swing by the Harris campaign trying to arrest

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Speaker 6: that ability, to let them pump up their numbers in

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Speaker 6: the rural areas.

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Speaker 3: Well Rick to drill down on the idea that it

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Speaker 3: is the economy that ultimately is going to matter most

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Speaker 3: for these groups. She obviously is going to have a

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Speaker 3: chance to speak to her ideas of how to better

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Speaker 3: their economic circumstances in this interview on CNN, which she

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Speaker 3: set to sit down along with Tim Walls with Dana

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Speaker 3: Bash about fifteen minutes from now. It's scheduled to be

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Speaker 3: recorded at one forty five pm, even though we won't

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Speaker 3: actually see it until nine pm Eastern. When we consider

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Speaker 3: the economic messaging that she's putting out there, these ideas

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Speaker 3: about the middle class, about doing or to address housing

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Speaker 3: affordability and price gouging, are those ideas that can resonate

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Speaker 3: with American voters without them being explained in actually a

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Speaker 3: fiscally responsible sense, without talking about the way in which

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Speaker 3: that may add to inflationary dynamics, or whether or not

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Speaker 3: any of these things are realistic without Congress. How much

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Speaker 3: of that does she need to do or are the

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Speaker 3: broad strokes enough.

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Speaker 6: It always helps if these kind of proposals are realistic.

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Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, she is doing

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Speaker 6: something different than what Joe Biden did in his campaign,

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Speaker 6: which brand the economy in general as Bynomics. It was big.

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Speaker 6: You couldn't get really a fix on what he was

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Speaker 6: talking about. There was all this discussion about growth and

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Speaker 6: our position in the world being an advantage, and nobody understood, like,

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Speaker 6: how does that affect me? So I do think one

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Speaker 6: of the tactics that they Harris campaign has taken is

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Speaker 6: with this housing idea, is to say, look, we're actually

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Speaker 6: going to affect you personally. We're going to give you

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Speaker 6: extra cash to buy a house. We're going to give

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Speaker 6: you more pressure on lending agencies to put money into

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Speaker 6: the system. I mean, in other words, they're taking a big,

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Speaker 6: amorphous economic improvement that Biden was claiming and saying, here's

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Speaker 6: something that's very specific that you could literally put in

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Speaker 6: your bank account if we're able to put my policies

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Speaker 6: into effect. And that's where it sort of crosses the

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Speaker 6: you know, do you have enough votes in Congress to

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Speaker 6: do something like that? Here, so enough money in the

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Speaker 6: federal budget for it? I mean, you're not going to

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Speaker 6: answer any of those questions till after election day, so

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Speaker 6: you know, it is a tactic. It'll be interesting to

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Speaker 6: see how they parse that out in this interview today

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Speaker 6: with CNN. I have no doubt that will be part

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Speaker 6: of the discussion. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 6: that is her ability to then go local, which is

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Speaker 6: what they need to do to be able to communicate

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Speaker 6: economic terms to voters.

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Speaker 3: And Kristen finally, we just have a minute left, But

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Speaker 3: what is the toughest question Vice President Harris could asked today.

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Speaker 7: I think that the tough things to address or are

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Speaker 7: going to be around immigration, just because and I'm not

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Speaker 7: saying it's anything that she has done, but it's where

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Speaker 7: we know that the attacks have really landed on in

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Speaker 7: the Democrat you know, for the Democratic Party by Republicans.

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Speaker 7: So I think that that's something but they'll be prepared.

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Speaker 7: They have been speaking about it very clearly. But that

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Speaker 7: is something you know that that's a major issue that

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Speaker 7: we're going to have to address.

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Speaker 3: All right. Kristin Han, partner at Rock Solutions, and Rick Davis,

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Speaker 3: partner at Stone Cord Capital, thank you both so much

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Speaker 3: for joining me here today. It's worth pointing out Kristen's

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Speaker 3: in Vegas, So maybe some gambling going on. Rick has

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Speaker 3: an arcade in the basement or wherever he is. You

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Speaker 3: guys are certainly having fun on this Thursday, but thank

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Speaker 3: you for spending some time with me here on Balance

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Speaker 3: of Power. We still have much more ahead. We'll be

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00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 3: joined by Brett Brun of the Global Situation Room next

438
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 3: to take a look at what's happening in the Middle East.

439
00:22:55,720 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 3: So don't go far. This is Bloomberg TV and Radio.

440
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

441
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 2: Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and

442
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 2: then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

443
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

444
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 2: on YouTube.

445
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 3: Wet out past our eyes toward the Middle East as

446
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 3: Israel's military operation in the West Bank continues, the IDF

447
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 3: saying today that it's killed five gunmen at a hideout

448
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 3: in a mosque in the West Bank, and Israel's foreign

449
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 3: minister has said some of the operations there could require

450
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 3: the evacuation of Palestinian civilians. He went on to say

451
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 3: that all of this action is in response to an

452
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 3: Iranian effort to quote establish an Eastern Terror Front. The

453
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 3: idea that Israel has now gone into the West Bank,

454
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 3: perhaps preemptively, if they are to be believe, is something

455
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 3: I discussed last night on Balance of Power with former

456
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 3: Secretary of Defense William Cohen, and this is what he

457
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 3: told me.

458
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 8: The Israelis have made it clear they're not going to wait.

459
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 8: They're preempt whenever they can. My hope is they don't

460
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 8: adopt the same plan of making a desert and calling

461
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 8: it peace. They're simply level all of the infrastructure in

462
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 8: the West Bank and say now we have peace. I

463
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 8: don't think that will work. I think they'll all be

464
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 8: more specific in their targeting.

465
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: So let's get another take now, and please to say

466
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 3: joining me here in our Washington, DC studio as Brett Bruin.

467
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 3: He is president of the Global Situation Room and also

468
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 3: former Director of Global Engagement at the White House during

469
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 3: the Obama administration. Brett, great to see you. When we

470
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 3: consider what we're seeing happen in the West Bank, how

471
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: do you read this move on the part of Israel.

472
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 3: What does this signal about the way they feel or

473
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: the status they feel is the war in Gaza right now?

474
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 3: If they're shifting their energies elsewhere.

475
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 9: Well, I think it's important to take into account Kley,

476
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 9: that they are trying to preempt They're trying to disrupt

477
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 9: efforts by Iran to retaliate for the assassination of a

478
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 9: important Hamas leader on Iranian territory. And so what you've

479
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 9: seen in Lebanon, what you're seeing now in the West

480
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,959
Speaker 9: Bank are pretty precision efforts to try and go after

481
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:15,400
Speaker 9: the different access that Iran has to strike back against Israel.

482
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 9: And I think it is important to take into account

483
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 9: that what we have seen over the last twenty four hours,

484
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 9: the last couple of days has actually been pretty precision

485
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 9: in its effort. At the same time, obviously, the collateral

486
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 9: consequences could be significant if this operation expands well, and

487
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 9: so when.

488
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 3: We consider the collateral consequences, obviously that is why there

489
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 3: has been such uproarly here at home over Israel's ongoing

490
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 3: conduct in Gaza in the war with Hamas. How are

491
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 3: these things related? If this really is just about preempting Iran,

492
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 3: does it have anything to do with that ongoing conflict.

493
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 3: I guess it's not entirely possible to separate them.

494
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 9: It's not entirely possible to separate them, and yet I

495
00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 9: think it is actually an effort that is distinct from

496
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 9: what we are seeing take place in Gaza. So it

497
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 9: is important on the one hand to understand they are interrelated,

498
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 9: and yet in Israel's mind, they are working very assiduously

499
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 9: to try and protect civilian lives to preempt that attack

500
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 9: by whether it is the likes of Hesbala, whether it's

501
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 9: the likes of Iranian backed extremist groups in the West Bank.

502
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 9: I think all of this ought to create a greater

503
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 9: sense of urgency on the part of the international community,

504
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 9: but especially on the part of regional allies, to intervene

505
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 9: to work towards pressuring both Israel and Hamas towards the ceasefire.

506
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 9: Ideal time is of the essence well.

507
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 3: And much time has been spent in that effort Brett,

508
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 3: and it's yielded nothing. Yet we continually get the Biden

509
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 3: administration and various officials saying that we're getting closer. Israel

510
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 3: has agreed that they do think they're closer than ever before,

511
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: and yet nothing has come to fruition, if not.

512
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 9: Now, when And as a recovering diplomat, I can say

513
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 9: that is one of the tried and true tactics. You

514
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 9: you know, publicly project we are getting close. You add

515
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 9: that element of press and public pressure to say we

516
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 9: need to get this thing done. And yet time and

517
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 9: time again, I have said it multiple times and Bloomberg,

518
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 9: it felt like we were close, We were at the

519
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,959
Speaker 9: five yard line. And yet the funny thing about these

520
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 9: kind of negotiations is you can be at the five

521
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 9: yard line, you get a penalty, and you go back

522
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 9: another ten yards.

523
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 3: So is this over optimism or being disingenuous?

524
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,199
Speaker 9: I think quite frankly, it is a degree of optimism

525
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 9: on the part of the Biden administration that really really

526
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 9: wants this deal. But you know, on the other hand,

527
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 9: things happen. All you know, of the events of the

528
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 9: last year have shown how whether it's Iran, whether it's

529
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 9: the likes of Hamas has Blot itself or other actors,

530
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:54,959
Speaker 9: the Russians, we have seen factors and events overtake the

531
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 9: best laid plans and that you know consistently has disrupted

532
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 9: efforts at trying to push us closer to that deal.

533
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 9: And obviously Netnyahu himself has his own designs on power.

534
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 3: Well, that's very true. There's domestic pressures on him to consider.

535
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 3: I do want to talk more about Iran, though not

536
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 3: just because we are still awaiting potential direct Iranian retaliation

537
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 3: against Israel, but also because the UN's nuclear watchdog said

538
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 3: today that Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium

539
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 3: enriched to near weapons grade levels. Brett, how concerned should

540
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 3: we be by that news.

541
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 9: I think we ought to be concerned. We also ought

542
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 9: to remember that it didn't have to be this way,

543
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 9: and that by pulling out of the JCPOA, the Iran

544
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 9: Nuclear Deal, what former President Trump did was effectively set

545
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:45,959
Speaker 9: the clock ticking towards Iran restarting those programs and getting

546
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 9: to weapons grade uranium. Which is this ought to be

547
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 9: a five alarm fire that is sounding in foreign capitals

548
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 9: around the world because the notion that not only Iran,

549
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 9: that Iranian proxies and other countries could have access to

550
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 9: weapons grade uranium is really, really dangerous, and it ought

551
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 9: to push us towards and tonight we'll wait and hear

552
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 9: from Vice President Harris in terms of what her foreign

553
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 9: policy will be, but it ought to push us back

554
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 9: to the negotiating table, not just for a ceasefire with Hamas,

555
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 9: but also a return to the JCPOA.

556
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 3: Well, I'm glad you raised that interview. She's going to

557
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:27,479
Speaker 3: be sitting down for it. In fact, she might already.

558
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 3: It was scheduled to begin at one forty five Eastern.

559
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: How does she need to address the Middle East? What

560
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: kind of policy do you hope she says.

561
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 9: She'll pursue one that is distinct from Biden.

562
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 3: It is impass so there will be some daylight between them.

563
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 9: There absolutely needs to be both her domestic political consumption,

564
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 9: but also for the foreign policy necessity. I think our

565
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 9: allies as well as our adversaries need to hear from

566
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 9: her that she is going to deviate when it comes

567
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 9: to issues like Israel. She's going to deviate when it

568
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 9: comes to issues like how she handles major challenges afghan withdrawal. Obviously,

569
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 9: just having marked the third anniversary, she can project a

570
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 9: different policy from Biden. I think one thing that's important

571
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 9: for observers is we need to see a different team

572
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 9: in place. This cannot be the same figures that governed

573
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 9: foreign policy over the last three and a half years.

574
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 3: Well, because you raise Afghanistan withdrawal, obviously, Donald Trump has

575
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 3: been making a big deal out of that. This week,

576
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 3: as we mark three years since that happened, he was

577
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,960
Speaker 3: in Virginia on Monday paying tribute to the thirteen service

578
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: members who died in the suicide bombing there. How should

579
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 3: we be considering the role of the vice president in that,

580
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 3: because he has put a lot of blame on Kamala

581
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,239
Speaker 3: Harris for the chaotic nature of that withdrawal to what

582
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: extent is it deserved.

583
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 9: I've sat in the situation room with then Vice President Biden,

584
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 9: and quite frankly, the vice president doesn't hold a whole

585
00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 9: lot of sway over these major foreign policy decisions. Yes

586
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 9: they have a voice, but they are one voice of many.

587
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 9: The Defense Secretary, the Secretary of State, the director of

588
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 9: the CIA, all of those, quite frankly, hold greater weight

589
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 9: than the vice president, and Vice President Harris has not

590
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 9: played a major role on foreign policy. Now, obviously that's

591
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 9: also going to be a criticism that Trump and his

592
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 9: allies are going.

593
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: To level what are the qualifications?

594
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 9: Well, that's true, and yet she's had the benefit of

595
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 9: three and a half years of working on these issues,

596
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 9: and that is some of the best training that you

597
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 9: can get in the situation room. I think quite Frankly,

598
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 9: her service during the last three and a half years,

599
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 9: her interaction with international leaders is far better preparation than jd.

600
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 9: Vance will have gotten, you know in his short tenure

601
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 9: in the Senate.

602
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 3: Fair enough, he was just elected two years ago. On

603
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 3: the subject of Harris's experience, this is actually we heard

604
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 3: Jake Sullivan addressing this in his trip to China this week.

605
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: The National Security Advisor, of course, talked about how Harris

606
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 3: is prepared, that she's interfaced which Chinese leaders before, but

607
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 3: also seem to signal that she will bring continuity when

608
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 3: it comes to China policy from what the Biden administration

609
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 3: policies have been. Will there be daylight between the two

610
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: of them on this issue.

611
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 9: I don't think so, because quite frankly, it has been

612
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 9: a successful policy, and it also is the continuity from

613
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 9: a Trump policy which has been pretty hard when it

614
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 9: comes to sanctions, tariffs, and just an overall more aggressive

615
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 9: stance towards Beijing that tries to get the messages across

616
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 9: deshijingping to others in China that the US is done

617
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 9: with being pushed around. We had that for too many

618
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 9: years on an economic front. On a political front, we're

619
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 9: seeing the consequences of it in the sounds China see

620
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:50,239
Speaker 9: with these literal crashes between Chinese Coastguard vessels and the

621
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 9: Philippines Navy or even just maritime vessels. It has got

622
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 9: to stop. And I think what we're seeing in signals

623
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 9: from Beijing is that they are ready to turn the

624
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 9: page on this because obviously the pressure has started to

625
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 9: mount domestically on Chijingping.

626
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 3: Do you think Beijing would prefer the outcome of a

627
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 3: Harris presidency or second Trump one?

628
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 9: You know, it's interesting, Beijing likes predictability, they like stability.

629
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 9: I think that Harris will be tough, but she will

630
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 9: be predictable. So that is not to say that she's

631
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 9: going to go any easier. The challenge with Trump, and

632
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 9: this is important I think to bear in mind. I

633
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 9: was just in London last week talking with your colleague Crity,

634
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 9: and one of the questions that came up is, isn't

635
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 9: you know Trump better for business? The problem with Trump

636
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 9: in business is you don't know what he's going to

637
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 9: do from one minute to the next, from one ex

638
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 9: post or truth social post to the next. And I think,

639
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 9: especially on the foreign policy front, foreign leaders came to

640
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 9: understand that at least there were some guardrails. There were,

641
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 9: you know, the likes of Chairman Miley, There were the

642
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 9: likes of the former Secretary of Defense under Trump, Mark Esper.

643
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 9: All of these were figures who they could guarantee were

644
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:16,280
Speaker 9: going to be an emergency break on Trump's know more

645
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 9: ill considered tendencies. They're not going back into a Trump

646
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 9: administration by all accounts, and so we find ourselves in

647
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 9: much riskier territory and a lot of foreign leaders right

648
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,400
Speaker 9: now are trying to figure out who would be a

649
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 9: Secretary of State, who would be a Secretary of Defense,

650
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 9: and the options up there aren't great ones.

651
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 3: Do you have an idea of who the options might

652
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 3: be for Kamala Harris?

653
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 9: Well, you know, it's interesting. I think Harris would and

654
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 9: should lean more on experienced diplomats. We ought to see

655
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,479
Speaker 9: folks who have spent time in multiple foreign tours, because

656
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,760
Speaker 9: you know, at the moment, with wars in Ukraine, wars

657
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 9: across Gaza, and risks around the world, this is not

658
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 9: the time for amateur ambassadors. This is not the time

659
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 9: for somebody who donated a lot to a political campaign

660
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 9: becoming the ambassador to London or Berlin. We need folks

661
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 9: who have the requisite experience, who understand the sophistic cat

662
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 9: kind of strategies that have to be deployed right now.

663
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 9: That's not what we saw all the time from Biden.

664
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 9: We saw, unfortunately, a reversion to a lot of those

665
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 9: old political party favors that were being handed out. And

666
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 9: quite frankly, friends who still are at the State Department,

667
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 9: who still serve on the National Security Council have said

668
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 9: there were too many of these political appointees, and I

669
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 9: think it was an effort, if you will, at trying

670
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 9: to mark a departure from the Trump administration. Harris needs

671
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 9: to go back to some of that institutional knowledge and

672
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 9: experience within our national security structure.

673
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 3: I've got a minute left. Would you join a Harris administration?

674
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 9: I would not. I have served my time over twelve years.

675
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 9: I'm not looking for another stint in government.

676
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 3: A right, fair enough, Brett Bruin, of course, now with

677
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 3: the Global Situation Room where he is president. Thank you

678
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:02,399
Speaker 3: so much.

679
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

680
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

681
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: and then roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app.

682
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

683
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

684
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power, where we're keeping tabs

685
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 3: on domestic politics, but geopolitics this week as well, especially

686
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 3: as US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is wrapping up

687
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: his three day trip to China. He actually met on

688
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: his final day with Chinese President Xijinping, the first time

689
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 3: those two have met one on one, and it set

690
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 3: the stage for a call between President and She and

691
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 3: President Biden that they say could happen in the coming weeks.

692
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 3: This is, of course, as the two countries work to

693
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 3: keep relations stable ahead of the presidential election, when, of

694
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 3: course a new president will be chosen and potentially China

695
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 3: policy could change when one is now. Jake and did

696
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 3: say today that Kamala Harris has experienced dealing with Chinese leadership,

697
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,760
Speaker 3: saying that she would continue the China policy implemented by Biden,

698
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 3: or at least signaling that. And then, of course there's

699
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 3: Donald Trump to consider, who has threatened to sixty percent

700
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 3: tariffs on all Chinese exports, and his China policy is

701
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: included in a new piece in Foreign policy. It's authored

702
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: by Gabriel Shyman, executive director of the Alexander Hamilton Society,

703
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 3: who writes, and this is a quote, the strength of

704
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 3: the US economy would give Trump the leverage to strike

705
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 3: the free and the fair and reciprocal trade deal he seeks,

706
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 3: going on to say those dynamics may lead to a

707
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 3: far broader trade war with and decoupling from China. And

708
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 3: pleased to say, Gabriel is joining me now for more

709
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: so we have seen this administration, Gabriel, and welcome to

710
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 3: balance of power. It's great to have you take pains

711
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 3: to not say decoupling, to talk about diversifying or friend shoring,

712
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 3: but not decoupling. Isn't decoupling a dangerous thing?

713
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 10: Thank you for having me. No, it's not a dangerous thing.

714
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 10: I think what's actually a lot more dangerous is continuing

715
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 10: on the autopilot of policies that we are right now

716
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 10: and have been for nearly forty years. I think that

717
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,719
Speaker 10: you can use different words for decoupling, diversifying, near shoring, offshoring,

718
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 10: French wearing, whatever it is. But I think at the

719
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 10: end of the day, the Chinese government does not play fair.

720
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 10: A number of its trade deals, and it's sought to

721
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 10: establish leverage over the American economy American society in a

722
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 10: lot of ways. And one of the things not only

723
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 10: the first Trump administration a putative sequent and to some degree,

724
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 10: I think the Biden administration as well, is how do

725
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 10: they deleverage, how do they make it enact policy in

726
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 10: such a way where the US economy is not under

727
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 10: the thumb of the Chinese Communist Party.

728
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 3: Well, but couldn't that make the US economy once again

729
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 3: under the thumb of inflation if you do have a

730
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: decoupling from such a major trade partner where cheaper goods

731
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 3: do tend to come from, and if you have high

732
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 3: tariffs on those exports that are still coming to the US,

733
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 3: all that raises costs.

734
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 10: Right, Yeah, unquestionably. And I think you've seen both the

735
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 10: bid administration and then the Trump campaign now talking about

736
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 10: how actually it doesn't raise costs.

737
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: That's just not true.

738
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 10: It absolutely will raise costs on the cost of good

739
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 10: in the United States and ultimately possibly on the cost

740
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 10: of living as well. The flip side of that, though,

741
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 10: is what are you giving up in return? And here

742
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 10: the idea is the concern is that for national security reasons.

743
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 10: Where we are not able to control the supply chains

744
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 10: of core components for our military, we're not able to

745
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 10: have full control and supply chains of core components for

746
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 10: our pharmaceuticals. I think people remember during the early days

747
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 10: of COVID, how there was a mask shortage in the

748
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 10: United States and lo and behold, something like seventy percent

749
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 10: of the mask were being produced in China. And so

750
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 10: these are bargaining chips that they have used and leverage

751
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,959
Speaker 10: against us in important situations. And so while it may

752
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:00,959
Speaker 10: indeed cause an increase in prices for quite a number

753
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 10: of American household goods, especially if Donald Trump wins and

754
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 10: pursues the pretty large tariff policies talking about on China,

755
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 10: the flip side of that is also be able to

756
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 10: reclaim a sense of kind of national independence and national

757
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 10: sovereignty and a lot of these issues.

758
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:16,439
Speaker 8: Well.

759
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 3: On this notion of sovereignty, it is worth noting that

760
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 3: it's not just the economic considerations when it comes to

761
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 3: the China relationship to talk about here, but more geopolitical

762
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 3: ones as well. For example, Donald Trump did an interview

763
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 3: with some of my colleagues in a Bloomberg Business Week

764
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 3: piece earlier this summer, suggesting he thinks Taiwan should be

765
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,240
Speaker 3: paying the US for any defense. How do you expect

766
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 3: policy when it comes to Taiwan and the South China

767
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 3: Sea and all these kind of territorial disputes could be

768
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 3: handled differently under a Trump administration.

769
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 10: Well, it's a good point. I mean, it is important

770
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 10: to note that it was actually under the Trump administration

771
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 10: the first term where American policy did Taiwan flourished. I mean,

772
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 10: they caused it, ruffled a lot of feathers. But then

773
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 10: President Elect Trump during the transition time in late twenty

774
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 10: sixteen h twenty seven, took a call with the with

775
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,839
Speaker 10: the Taiwanese president, which was on presdent of the time.

776
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 10: The increase of visits to the island, the increase of

777
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 10: trade included in a lot of international forms or attempts

778
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 10: to do so, so that the United States under Trump

779
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 10: ship broke a lot of taboos, and to the Bide

780
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 10: administration's credit, they actually took those and continued it in

781
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 10: that way. So there actually is quite a lot of

782
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 10: bipartisnship I think, specifically vias of the Taiwan at the

783
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 10: same time, and I mean I wouldn't use the words

784
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 10: in which Trump used. At the same time, there is

785
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 10: this concern that our allies are just not doing enough

786
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 10: or don't seem to take the threats to their own

787
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 10: sovereignty as seriously as they ought to. I mean, I

788
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 10: think Taiwan is spending something like two point five percent

789
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 10: of its GDP on national defense, and while that is

790
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 10: higher than a lot of our European allies, it is

791
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,720
Speaker 10: still not commeasure it where it needs to be, given

792
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 10: the threats that they face on a daily basis from Beijing.

793
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 10: And so I do think that there is a need

794
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 10: for US to be able to encourage our allies to

795
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 10: spend a lot more on their defense than they are

796
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 10: already are well.

797
00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 3: And of course, and you kind of alluded to this, Gabriel,

798
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 3: that doesn't just go for the Asia Pacific, right, You're

799
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 3: talking about Europe and NATO here. Donald Trump has suggested

800
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 3: those in NATO not paying their fair share may not

801
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 3: get requisite support from the United States should the need arise.

802
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 3: How do you think that alliance actually would be different?

803
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 3: Do you think Article five would still stand in Trump

804
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 3: two point zero?

805
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 10: I think it absolutely would still stand. And then you

806
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 10: can you know, that by looking at the record. So first,

807
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 10: under Trump one point zero, the Trump administration actually welcomed

808
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 10: two new nations into NATO, neither of which at the

809
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 10: time actually met their two percent of GDP spent on

810
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 10: the military's obligations. So despite the rhetoric, the record is

811
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 10: different there. The Trump administration actively wanted to move US

812
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 10: forces further east in Europe. This is before the Russian

813
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 10: invasion of Ukraine, and talked about extensively, in particular in

814
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 10: Poland and the Baltics to be able to do that.

815
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 10: That's a greater commitment in that way. And although it

816
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 10: might come across as haranguing. When Trump took office the

817
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 10: first time, I think there was only five out of

818
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 10: then twenty eight NATO members had met their two percent.

819
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 10: When he left office, it was ten, and now I

820
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 10: think we're a twenty out of thirty two and next

821
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 10: year there and in a speech he just gave earlier

822
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:16,440
Speaker 10: this week, he established a policy saying that rather than

823
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 10: two percent floor, it actually should be increasing to a

824
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 10: three percent floor. And I don't think it actually it

825
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 10: would be that crazy that if he were to be

826
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 10: elected president at the next NATO summit, which would be

827
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,399
Speaker 10: in June twenty twenty five, that he actually might even

828
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 10: be able to declare a mission accomplished on a number

829
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 10: of those things. And so I actually think the trend

830
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,680
Speaker 10: lines are such that there is there's starting to be

831
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 10: some rearmament in Europe as a consequence of concerns about

832
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 10: American withtraal and obviously concerns about the threat from Russia.

833
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 10: The Europeans are picking up a greater share of the burden.

834
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 10: They contribute the majority of actually aid to Ukraine, not

835
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 10: the United States. And so for all those reasons, I

836
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 10: actually think that Trump two point zero is likely to

837
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 10: solidify our alliances with Europe rather than abandon them.

838
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 3: Well, as you raise Ukraine here, Donald Trump has maintained

839
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:08,720
Speaker 3: that he could end the war in Ukraine in one day. Gabriel,

840
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:10,719
Speaker 3: is that credible? How would he do that?

841
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 10: I think that's a rhetorical flourish. So I think ending

842
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 10: the war twenty four hours out there. But if you

843
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,520
Speaker 10: actually follow the next sentences that he says after that,

844
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 10: how would he do that?

845
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 1: What does he say?

846
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 10: How do you do He said basically that he would

847
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 10: turn to Presidence Lenski and say you got to negotiate

848
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 10: with Putin and if you don't, maybe we'll cut you off.

849
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 10: But then he said he'll turn to Putin and say,

850
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 10: if you don't actually negotiate, end to the steel Zelenski,

851
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 10: we're going to like double the amount of arms that

852
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 10: we give to the Ukrainians. So the Russians are the

853
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 10: ones that actually have not been willing to negotiate at

854
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 10: all because they want all of Ukraine. They see it

855
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 10: as a half nation. It's pretty evident from Putin's Rhticicus there.

856
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 10: Whereas the Ukrainians, you know, obviously they want the Russians

857
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 10: to withdraw from their sovereign territory given the aggression, but

858
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:53,439
Speaker 10: they've been trying and open to negotiation in a different ways.

859
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 10: So again the twenty four hours thing is a bit

860
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 10: of a rhetorical flourish. But the concept here is that

861
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 10: the Trump could be expected to actually put a lot

862
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 10: more pressure on Putin to be able to do it.

863
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,680
Speaker 10: And you know, maybe you'll get to this, but American

864
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 10: energy policy is a perfect example of how to be

865
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 10: able to do that. The current administration has been trying

866
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 10: to restrict American fossil fuel production American fossil fuel exports,

867
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 10: even though America is functionally an energy superpower. We've never

868
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 10: produced or exported more oil and gas than ever before

869
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 10: and under Trump administration that I think is pretty clear

870
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 10: about these things. If you can bring more of that

871
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 10: to market, you can dilute the Russian economy or dilute

872
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 10: the pressure or the leverage he has the European economy,

873
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 10: then it actually puts more pressure on the Russians to.

874
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:36,280
Speaker 7: Be able to negotiate.

875
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 3: Just to clear follow up on that, Gabriel, As you know,

876
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 3: we are producing a record amount of oil and natural gas.

877
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,080
Speaker 3: So what exactly is it that we think more will

878
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: be produced in the US under a second Trump administration,

879
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 3: that he will just handle the exporting of it differently,

880
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 3: is what you're saying.

881
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 10: Well, I think it's both. I think you give example

882
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 10: of the Biden administration. I think it was like six

883
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:04,800
Speaker 10: months ago moratorium on new LNG gas export licenses. For example,

884
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,760
Speaker 10: the Bide administration, because of its concern over climate change,

885
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 10: has been trying to more or less kill demand for

886
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 10: fossil fuels and basically kill the combustion engine in a

887
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:16,240
Speaker 10: lot of different ways. Gas prices of the United States

888
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 10: today are roughly a dollar more than they were, you know,

889
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 10: pre COVID. Let's say, under Donald Trump, because of a

890
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 10: lot of these policies, and so I do think that

891
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 10: by basically reducing regulation, cutting back in a lot of

892
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,720
Speaker 10: these subsidies for electric vehicles, doing cars, things that Trump

893
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 10: is pledged to be able to do, You're actually going

894
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 10: to see more demand, which is going to lead to

895
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,320
Speaker 10: more supply, which is going to lead to more interest,

896
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 10: especially overseas in Europe and so forth.

897
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 3: Drill, Baby, Drill, I think is what this might come

898
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 3: back down to. Gabriel, Thank you so much for joining.

899
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:53,800
Speaker 3: Great to have you, Gabriel Scheinman. Alexander Hamilton, Society Executive Director.

900
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 3: We appreciate your time.

901
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

902
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo CarPlay

903
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 2: and then Proud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen

904
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

905
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 2: live on YouTube.

906
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 3: Then this worth pointing out. Also in that Fox poll

907
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 3: that I was mentioning, it does find that voters in

908
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 3: the Sun Belt still give Donald Trump the edge on

909
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 3: the economy, and in fact, four and ten of them

910
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 3: say that the economy is the most important issue for

911
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 3: them when they are casting a vote for president. Of course,

912
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,360
Speaker 3: got some news on the US economy today, and it

913
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,919
Speaker 3: was better news than expected. Upward revision to GDP growth

914
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:37,520
Speaker 3: in the second quarter. It grew at three percent. That's

915
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 3: up from the previous estimate of two point eight percent.

916
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,279
Speaker 3: And of course the consumer engine that's driving that you

917
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 3: look at personal spending also revised hire two point nine percent.

918
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 3: The prior estimate was two point three percent. So let's

919
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 3: get in to some of this now and more on

920
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:56,040
Speaker 3: the economic policies of these candidates. In addition to that,

921
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 3: Lindsay Owens is with me. She is Groundwork Collaborative executive director.

922
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power, Lindsay, It's always good

923
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,760
Speaker 3: to have you. Obviously, the data we got this morning

924
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 3: is backward looking. It's taking a look at the second

925
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 3: quarter when we are now most of the way through

926
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,839
Speaker 3: the third at this point. But does this help put

927
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 3: to bed any notions of a potential growth scare that

928
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 3: may have arisen, especially in light of the latest jobs report.

929
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 11: Yeah, if the fundamentals of the economy are absolutely strong.

930
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:26,399
Speaker 11: We have low unemployment, we have inflation that has come

931
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 11: down considerably off its peak by some measures has already

932
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 11: reached the feds two percent target and we have strong

933
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 11: GDP growth. But the risks ahead are in two spaces.

934
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 11: The first is the continued concerns that many Americans have

935
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 11: about the high cost of living. And the second, of course,

936
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 11: is that the FED could be behind the eight ball.

937
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,280
Speaker 11: We heard last week in care pals jackson Hole speech

938
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,439
Speaker 11: that they're going to cut rates in September. So that's

939
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 11: great news and we just have to hope it'll be

940
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:04,879
Speaker 11: you deepen and fast enough to ward off any potential downturns.

941
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 7: Well.

942
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,879
Speaker 3: And what that ultimate depth of the cut next month

943
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 3: could come down to is, of course, the data we

944
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 3: have yet to get. Lindsay we're going to get PC

945
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 3: data tomorrow. We know that that's the Fed's preferred inflation gage.

946
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 3: We have a jobs report coming up next Friday in

947
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:22,839
Speaker 3: addition to that. What picture are you anticipating that these

948
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 3: data data will paint. Do you think it will be

949
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 3: supportive of a fifty basis point cut or potentially send

950
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:30,440
Speaker 3: the message to the FED that they can go slower

951
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 3: on the way down.

952
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:32,560
Speaker 6: No.

953
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 11: I think the inflation numbers are going to look pretty soft,

954
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 11: and I think they will support a strong rate cut

955
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 11: of fifty basis points or more.

956
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 3: Of course, Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, had

957
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 3: said she'd like to see seventy five. I'm not sure

958
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 3: that anyone thinks that that's highly likely at this point,

959
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 3: because it could potentially send it a bit of a

960
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 3: panic signal, right, lindsay, if the FED all of a

961
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 3: sudden words to ease dramatically, could that not have have

962
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 3: some repercussions. I mean, look, I think SCHERA.

963
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 11: Powell was pretty clear in his statement at Jackson Hole

964
00:50:07,239 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 11: that he feels like when he balances the risks of

965
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 11: continued high inflation and further softening in the labor market,

966
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 11: he's now a bit more concerned about softening in the

967
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 11: labor market. So he's sort of thinking about that side

968
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 11: of the dual mandate with more granularity and with more focus.

969
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 11: So I think if he, you know, if he had sought,

970
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 11: he has effectively softened the ground for a pivot to cuts.

971
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 11: And I think if he goes a little further than

972
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 11: folks expect, you know, I don't I don't anticipate a

973
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 11: huge swing in the markets, but I do think, you know,

974
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,439
Speaker 11: we'll send a clear signal that you know he wasn't

975
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 11: kidding when he said the risks are now more skewed

976
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:47,760
Speaker 11: towards softening the labor market.

977
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 3: Well, of course, monetary policy is one thing, lindsay, fiscal

978
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 3: policy is another, and we may get some more clarity

979
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,760
Speaker 3: into the kind of fiscal policy Kamala Harris muld actually

980
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 3: pursue if she does when the election in November. When

981
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 3: she sits down for her first interview tonight on CNN,

982
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 3: what does she most need to answer for? Knowing that

983
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 3: she has given us broad strokes of things she would

984
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 3: like to do when it comes to housing or price gouging,

985
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 3: but how much more explaining is necessary?

986
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 11: Yeah, So Vice President Harris is going to have to

987
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 11: talk to the American people about their number one priority

988
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 11: when it comes to the economy, which is the cost

989
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 11: of living, the cost of things that matter most a

990
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:27,359
Speaker 11: roof over your head and food on the table. And

991
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 11: I think she has a lot to talk about that

992
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 11: Americans are going to be interested to hear. And I

993
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 11: think she has a lot to boast about in some respects.

994
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 11: This week alone, we have had two stunning developments when

995
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 11: it comes to our understanding of the high cost of

996
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 11: living in America. Friday, the Department of Justice sued Real Page,

997
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 11: the largest real estate data company, for price fixing. What

998
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 11: they determined in their complaint I looked at the one

999
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 11: hundred page complaint over the weekend, is that there has

1000
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 11: been a vast, widespread conspiracy among corporate landlords to set

1001
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 11: the price of rent well above market levels, according to

1002
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 11: Real Page's own materials, between two and seven percent higher

1003
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,839
Speaker 11: than what you would expect absent there price fixing. And

1004
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:21,720
Speaker 11: by the way, millions of tenants live in houses whose

1005
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 11: landlords use Real Page, So this isn't small ball. This

1006
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:30,239
Speaker 11: is substantial. And her administration's Department of Justice sued on

1007
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 11: Friday to put a stop to this conspiracy. And I

1008
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,959
Speaker 11: think Americans are going to be really happy to hear

1009
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 11: that she and the Department of Justice have been cracking

1010
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 11: down on the corporate profiteering that we're seeing in the

1011
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:47,319
Speaker 11: housing space. The second thing that we learned is yesterday

1012
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 11: in the Federal Trade Commission's lawsuit to block the merger

1013
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:54,280
Speaker 11: of two of the largest grocery giants in the country,

1014
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:59,760
Speaker 11: Kroger and Albertson's, we heard from Kroger's top pricing official,

1015
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:04,280
Speaker 11: senior director for pricing that Kroger has been passing along

1016
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 11: higher pricing than is justified by inflation alone for milk

1017
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 11: and X. What he said under sworn testimony is that

1018
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 11: retail inflation is higher than cost inflation. So the high

1019
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 11: prices that are coming their way, they're absorbing those, or

1020
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:23,240
Speaker 11: they're passing those along and then they're going for more.

1021
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 11: They're passing along higher prices on milk and X, and

1022
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 11: the Federal Trade Commission is suing to ensure that this

1023
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 11: merger doesn't exacerbate their market position and their ability to

1024
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 11: do that on an ongoing basis in food and grocery,

1025
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 11: and so I think Vice President Harris can take credit

1026
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 11: for that as well. So I think when it comes

1027
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 11: to both housing and grocery, what she can do is

1028
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 11: talk about what she plans to do with four more years,

1029
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 11: but also what she is already doing this very week

1030
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 11: in her administration to bring down the cost of things

1031
00:53:57,800 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 11: that matter most a roof over your head and food.

1032
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 6: On the tape.

1033
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 3: And finally, lindsay, we just have a minute left. But

1034
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 3: in addition to the price fixing kind of conversation, she

1035
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,640
Speaker 3: also was talking about, for example, twenty five thousand dollars

1036
00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 3: assistance for first time home buyers. Those are things that

1037
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 3: cost money. Doesn't she need to explain the pay for

1038
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 3: us as well.

1039
00:54:18,880 --> 00:54:21,360
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's such a great point. She you know, she

1040
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 11: really has done that already, but I think you're right

1041
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 11: she should do that again tonight. And I think the

1042
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 11: American people will actually be quite pleased with her plans

1043
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 11: to bring in more revenue to cover investments in their communities,

1044
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 11: investments in their families. She has endorsed all five trillion

1045
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:44,720
Speaker 11: of the Biden Harris' budget taxes on the wealthy in corporation.

1046
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,239
Speaker 11: That's bringing the corporate rate back up to twenty five

1047
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 11: or twenty eight percent. That's restoring some of the taxes,

1048
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 11: the tax cuts, you know, on the wealthiest Americans. So

1049
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 11: I think she's laid out more than enough and you know,

1050
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 11: in revenue to cover the cost of her key agenda items.

1051
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 3: All right, Lindsay, we got to leave it there. Lindsay Owens,

1052
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 3: Groundwork Collaborative and Groundwork Action executive Director.

1053
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 8: Thank you.

1054
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg.

1055
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1056
00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify.

1057
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:23,440
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1058
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:26,120
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1059
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 10: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.