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Speaker 2: Alex Steel, Paul Sweeney, We're live here in our Bloomberg
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Speaker 2: as check us out. There a lot going on as
Speaker 2: it does as it seems to be every single day
Speaker 2: from a policy perspective, news flow coming out of the
Speaker 2: White House fast and furious. That's why we check in
Speaker 2: with our next guest almost every day, Nathan Dean, senior
Speaker 2: policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's responsible for all this, folks.
Speaker 2: So if you want to complain to somebody, to go
Speaker 2: to Nathan Dean. Nathan, what is kind of the latest
Speaker 2: feeling within DC as to how this tariff situation may unfold?
Speaker 2: Here to now that the courts are starting to weigh in?
Speaker 3: So I think the Washington and started taking the approach
Speaker 3: that you know, this terrif fight is not over. Obviously,
Speaker 3: the courts have said that you know, President Trump's authority
Speaker 3: on AEPA or this International Emergency Economic Powers Act is
Speaker 3: somewhat limited, and obviously we'll see that play out at
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court later this week. But you know, President
Speaker 3: Trump has other tools in his tool belt. Now I'll
Speaker 3: say things like section one twenty two or three thirty
Speaker 3: eight or three ZHO one. But what you need to
Speaker 3: know is President Trump does have the authority under one
Speaker 3: twenty two to implement a fifteen percent tariff right away
Speaker 3: up to one hundred and fifty days. Three thirty eight
Speaker 3: can go up to a fifty percent tariff. Now this
Speaker 3: three oh one two thirty two that requires investigations. Where
Speaker 3: I'm going at with this is that there are other
Speaker 3: tools that President Trump has.
Speaker 4: To implement these tariffs.
Speaker 3: And so the courts came down on AEPA, and that's
Speaker 3: certainly that court case is going to play out. But
Speaker 3: if the White House decides to retreat and says, you
Speaker 3: know what, let's go about a different avenue here. And
Speaker 3: this is what Peter Navarro hinted at when he spoke
Speaker 3: earlier on Bloomberg Television. You know, they can certainly reinstitute
Speaker 3: these tariffs. It's just going to have to go through
Speaker 3: a different process. The good news for investors though, is
Speaker 3: that the pro is usually a little bit more transparent
Speaker 3: than President Trump just implementing these via truth.
Speaker 5: Social Does it matter, How does this read through to
Speaker 5: say the budget deficit, because raising revenue through tariffs was
Speaker 5: like a big part of that bill.
Speaker 4: So it doesn't really impact it all that much.
Speaker 3: So Congress is trying to actually pass this one big,
Speaker 3: beautiful bill, and they've known in the back of their
Speaker 3: minds that this tariff discussion is taking place, but it's
Speaker 3: not in the record, it's not part of the calculations
Speaker 3: of that bill.
Speaker 4: So you know, it's almost like.
Speaker 3: They're just keeping in the back of the mind and said, Okay,
Speaker 3: maybe we're going to be able to support this. But
Speaker 3: if you take out all the tariff for revenue and
Speaker 3: you just presume that we're not going to collect anything else,
Speaker 3: Congress is still going.
Speaker 4: To pass this bill.
Speaker 3: You know, the Republicans are fairly aligned with President Trump
Speaker 3: when it comes to extending these tax cuts and also
Speaker 3: for these additional one point five trillion dollars in taxes
Speaker 3: in terms of like no taxes on tips, no taxes
Speaker 3: on overtime.
Speaker 4: Et cetera.
Speaker 3: So the cost proportion of it is there, but I
Speaker 3: don't think Congress is really going to pay attention to it.
Speaker 4: They're going to still pass this thing.
Speaker 2: So what's the status of this tax bill? I mean
Speaker 2: just timing wise talked about getting lost in the clutter
Speaker 2: of the news here. Where are we with the timing here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the White House wants this passed by the
Speaker 3: fourth of July. It's obviously past the House. It's now
Speaker 3: over in the Senate. Now the Senate is out this week,
Speaker 3: there's been discussions among staffers of trying to figure out
Speaker 3: what in.
Speaker 4: The House will pass what's known as the Bird rule.
Speaker 3: Essentially, are there provisions of this House bill that just
Speaker 3: won't work through the process of reconciliation.
Speaker 4: Now, I don't think that really is all that important to.
Speaker 3: The tax or the Medicaid or to the Inflation Reduction
Speaker 3: Act portion. But next week we should see the Senators
Speaker 3: come back and we'll start to see discussions of what
Speaker 3: are they going to pair back from the House bill,
Speaker 3: things like Medicaid work requirements, you know they would kick
Speaker 3: in under at the end of twenty twenty six that
Speaker 3: potentially geld get pushed.
Speaker 4: Back very important to solar investors.
Speaker 3: The Inflation Reduction Act, some of that language could also
Speaker 3: get paired back.
Speaker 4: We'll probably see that play out.
Speaker 3: Over the next two to three weeks, and then I
Speaker 3: think the Senate, if they had all their ducks aligned,
Speaker 3: would try and go for a vote, probably by mid
Speaker 3: to late June. But I don't be surprised if this
Speaker 3: just leads back another couple weeks and we see this
Speaker 3: in July.
Speaker 5: Elon Musk apparently Ditch and d C didn't like the
Speaker 5: bureaucracy going to go back to his company. What does
Speaker 5: that do for DOGE, for cost cutting, for anything.
Speaker 3: So there's two really aspects of the DOGE that's really
Speaker 3: important to investors, and that's obviously you know, what is
Speaker 3: the federal government spending outside of this one big beautiful
Speaker 3: bill aka the appropriations process? Now Bloomberg Government actually put
Speaker 3: out a piece this morning. They have a really cool
Speaker 3: chart in there that shows you the government expenditures by
Speaker 3: agency for the month of May for twenty twenty five
Speaker 3: versus twenty twenty four, and the agencies are spending almost
Speaker 3: about half of what they spent last year. So DOGE
Speaker 3: has definitely done an importance. You know, the influence in
Speaker 3: terms of getting agencies to spend less. But ultimately it
Speaker 3: is Congress that needs to decide what the appropriations is
Speaker 3: and what is to spend here. That's going to come
Speaker 3: up in September, but it's also going to come up
Speaker 3: in a recision package. The White House will most likely
Speaker 3: send you to the House next week and they'll say, look,
Speaker 3: we want to codify a lot of these Doge cuts.
Speaker 4: We need you to pass this.
Speaker 3: I would say, though, even though the filibuster isn't subject
Speaker 3: to this, so just it requires a majority vote the House.
Speaker 4: In the Senate, a lot of.
Speaker 3: Times policymakers are like, look, I love the idea of
Speaker 3: cutting federal waste on paper, but a lot of that
Speaker 3: federal waste is also going to buy my district. So
Speaker 3: I'm not sure this package will continue or it will pass.
Speaker 3: And I will say, just at least at a first glance,
Speaker 3: we're not seeing many market impacts to this recisions package.
Speaker 2: All right, I'm just looking at some BI litigation. We
Speaker 2: have some folks in Bloomberg Intelligence that just look at
Speaker 2: litigation because it impacts industries and impacts companies, and sure enough,
Speaker 2: tariffs are first and foremost here. BI litigation analysis thinks
Speaker 2: there's a sixty percent chance the Supreme Court will side
Speaker 2: with the Court's ruling and that teriffs may exceed the
Speaker 2: President's authority, but it will be very close. So that
Speaker 2: seems to be what President Trump and this administration are
Speaker 2: betting on that they can get this past the court.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, so that obviously, you.
Speaker 3: Know that's my colleagues, and my colleague Holly from is
Speaker 3: the one that's leading this effort. She's actually chatting with
Speaker 3: clients as we speak. But I will say that I
Speaker 3: was talking to her prior to coming on air, and
Speaker 3: she said that if the Supreme Court were to come
Speaker 3: out and say we are going to take up this
Speaker 3: case and potentially implement at stay, that could be indicative
Speaker 3: of their thinking going forward, because you know the red
Speaker 3: line that you showed before I came on the air,
Speaker 3: talked about how the Supreme Court could potentially take this
Speaker 3: up this week. If we see signs from the Supreme
Speaker 3: Court that they're somewhat amicable to fast tracking this ultimately,
Speaker 3: it could be beneficial.
Speaker 4: Now still it's very close to call.
Speaker 3: But Holly's original timeline is that if the Supreme Court
Speaker 3: says that they're not going to take it up, and
Speaker 3: this actually may have to go through the court appeals
Speaker 3: and so forth. You would see an ultimate decision on
Speaker 3: this in the fourth quarter of this year.
Speaker 5: What kind of questions are clients asking me right now,
Speaker 5: Like the world really changed in the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 5: Where do they asking you the most?
Speaker 3: Well, obviously with today, you know, it's the tear for
Speaker 3: news and how our companies preparing for this are tariff's
Speaker 3: off as we speak, you know, And our response to
Speaker 3: that is obviously, you know, the White House has the
Speaker 3: ability to re appeal.
Speaker 4: They have appealed.
Speaker 3: But really it's just the future of what President Trump
Speaker 3: wants to do in terms of tariffs.
Speaker 4: Obviously there was discussion yesterday the taco.
Speaker 3: Trade, if you will, And what I will say is
Speaker 3: that President Trump truly believes in tariffs. He still believes
Speaker 3: in them. He believes them as a point of leverage
Speaker 3: and a point of negotiation. And so whether or not
Speaker 3: it's using AEPA or Section three oh one or Section
Speaker 3: two thirty two, tariffs are here to stay, and they're
Speaker 3: most likely here to stay for the next four years.
Speaker 3: But are you getting a tariff like one hundred and
Speaker 3: forty five percent tariff on China or are you getting
Speaker 3: a ten percent tariff on the United Kingdom. Those are
Speaker 3: the questions that the clients want to know, and we'll
Speaker 3: see that play out.
Speaker 4: Over the next few weeks and months.
Speaker 2: And Nathan, I can't help but notice that the Democrats
Speaker 2: are awfully, awfully quiet these days. They've been since the
Speaker 2: beginning of President Trump's administration. And my understanding was, yes,
Speaker 2: they're a minority, but not by much and those razors,
Speaker 2: wh's a majority for the Republicans. It doesn't feel that
Speaker 2: way from the Democrats. It might overthinking then.
Speaker 3: No, actually, the Democrats are somewhat irrelevant when it comes
Speaker 3: to tariff's.
Speaker 4: And also the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Speaker 3: Because tariffs, President Trump is doing this via executive authority,
Speaker 3: so the Democrats aren't involved. And when it comes to
Speaker 3: the One Big Beautiful Bill, they're doing it via reconciliation,
Speaker 3: which bypasses the Democrats. But the Democrats will be able
Speaker 3: to start to fight back later this year because once
Speaker 3: the Big Beautiful Bill passes, that's.
Speaker 4: About it for Congress.
Speaker 3: And so come September you're gonna have things like the
Speaker 3: government funding or a government shutdown, and so forth, and
Speaker 3: the Democrats are really going to try and start positioning
Speaker 3: themselves for next year. It's just that the Republicans are
Speaker 3: using procedures and processes at the moment that bypasses them,
Speaker 3: and as a result, Democrats are really struggling to figure
Speaker 3: out how to combat that.
Speaker 6: All right, Nathan, really appreciate it.
Speaker 5: Thank you very much, Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst.
Speaker 5: He's definitely really busy, but I feel like maybe things have.
Speaker 6: Calmed down a little bit for him.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and he's relative from what this breadth.
Speaker 2: Of knowledge is just amazes me about how all that
Speaker 2: stuff works.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 5: Let's get more on where we are with Harvard and
Speaker 5: President Trump. I'm the latest evolution of this drama. Janet Lauren,
Speaker 5: higher education finance reporter. I joins us now from Bloomberry.
Speaker 5: I didn't think you probably didn't think you'd be this
Speaker 5: busy in this particular way.
Speaker 6: All right, what's the latest well the latest well right now,
Speaker 6: commencement is going on.
Speaker 4: Okay, so that's the speakers this year.
Speaker 7: Yesterday, i believe it for the class date was Kareem
Speaker 7: Abdul Jabbar for the undergraduate cool. So you know, this
Speaker 7: should be in some ways a really happy celebratory time
Speaker 7: for Harvard, which it is, and especially for students and
Speaker 7: their parents and their grandparent parents who welcome.
Speaker 6: But just like last year, there is a palpable.
Speaker 7: Tension at Harvard around graduation. Last year the question of protests.
Speaker 6: What was going to happen an animal rights.
Speaker 7: Activist through glitter on President Alan Garber during the ceremony.
Speaker 6: And today, you.
Speaker 7: Know, there is also a very palpable tension, but it's
Speaker 7: a very different one, especially with international students, because it's
Speaker 7: unclear what their fate is. It appeared that yesterday the
Speaker 7: State Department has perhaps widened that ban on visas regarding
Speaker 7: all all those with Chinese affiliations at Harvard. It keeps
Speaker 7: things keep changing. It's hard to keep track on what's
Speaker 7: actually happening. But but today, you know, should be a
Speaker 7: happy day for the students at Harvard.
Speaker 2: Harvard it just feels again I have zero affiliation with Harvard.
Speaker 2: They're being targeted here by this administration visa VI Ivy
Speaker 2: League schools or the University of Texas or the University
Speaker 2: of Florida or anything like that.
Speaker 7: Do we know why, Well, Harvard is the biggest prize
Speaker 7: out there.
Speaker 6: It's you know, we've talked about this before.
Speaker 7: It's the oldest university in America, it predates the country.
Speaker 7: It's the richest school with a fifty three billion dollar endowment.
Speaker 7: And in some ways it's more symbolic. What else if
Speaker 7: you want to make a point, everybody in the world
Speaker 7: knows the brand of Harvard very powerful, you know, almost
Speaker 7: in some ways like a luxury good, especially when viewed overseas.
Speaker 7: And yesterday President Trump talked in the Oval Office about
Speaker 7: Harvard should cap the number of foreign students at fifteen percent.
Speaker 7: It's more like twenty seven percent now, and I think
Speaker 7: that number is surprising to a lot of people, that
Speaker 7: these campuses have almost more than a quarter of the
Speaker 7: students are from other countries.
Speaker 5: Well to that point, there is a headline that the
Speaker 5: Harvard case judge is now expanding the block of president
Speaker 5: comes foreign student ban. Does that imply that more foreign
Speaker 5: students get to stay on are allowed to sort of
Speaker 5: stay at Harvard or apply to be at Harvard.
Speaker 7: Well, keep in mind that just because the judge has
Speaker 7: blocked something doesn't mean if you're a student, you're going
Speaker 7: to be making decisions based on what's going to happen
Speaker 7: over the next two years or four years, and you
Speaker 7: want to be able to stay and complete your education.
Speaker 6: And I have to think, oh my god, I have
Speaker 6: to transfer.
Speaker 7: I have to find a place that has an open
Speaker 7: spot and would take me.
Speaker 2: And you know, with my affiliation with Duke University, I
Speaker 2: saw this at the board level the first Trump administration,
Speaker 2: and now again it's the exact same thing is happening.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 2: They're seeing it drop in applications and interests from foreign
Speaker 2: students because they just don't know what the situation is
Speaker 2: going to be a week from now, a year from now,
Speaker 2: three years from now. All they know is I don't
Speaker 2: feel as welcomed as I thought I would or I'm
Speaker 2: going to need to be. So I'm going to look
Speaker 2: to Canada, I'm going to look to Europe and things
Speaker 2: like that. Hell hard, do you think Harvard really is going.
Speaker 4: To fight this?
Speaker 2: Do you think just all of these things across the whole.
Speaker 2: I guess, you know, panically what's going on.
Speaker 7: Well, Harvard has already filed two lawsuits. The first one
Speaker 7: was in April in response to a letter that the
Speaker 7: administration made lots of demands, and Harvard doesn't disagree with
Speaker 7: some of the things the government is asking for, but
Speaker 7: it does disagree in the way that it is going
Speaker 7: about it. So Harvard also has to feel like it's
Speaker 7: supporting its constituency, the students.
Speaker 6: They have to show that they're supporting the students.
Speaker 7: And I think in some ways the Harvard faculty has
Speaker 7: never felt more unified. You know, there's lots of different
Speaker 7: factions there. Certainly the humanities faculty are not going to
Speaker 7: agree with some things that the that the science faculty
Speaker 7: and priorities, But in some ways this has unified them
Speaker 7: and perhaps alumni because they somebody is standing up to
Speaker 7: Trump and Harvard is a very rich entity.
Speaker 4: Jenet, fascinating.
Speaker 2: I'm sure going to be talking to you more in
Speaker 2: the future regarding this and other topics in higher education.
Speaker 2: Janet Lauren, higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News, joining
Speaker 2: us live here in our interactive Growker's studio.
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Speaker 2: Let's go to match. Docky, chief portfolio manager for Equity said.
Speaker 2: He said, Northwestern Mutual Wealth out there in Milwaukee, pound
Speaker 2: for pound, some of the best money managers.
Speaker 6: In the world a Milwaukee.
Speaker 2: I have no idea. Why, Matt, what do you make
Speaker 2: of this market? I mean, we were down twenty percent,
Speaker 2: we've retraced much of that decline, and now you're to date,
Speaker 2: we're basically unched on the year.
Speaker 4: Where do we go from here?
Speaker 8: Well, good morning, thanks for having me back. Look, I mean,
Speaker 8: I think the market's like they stay pretty volatile. You know,
Speaker 8: while you know we've round tripped, you know, the Terriff
Speaker 8: and Duce losses in April, by no means that we
Speaker 8: have the woods, just in terms of the uncertainty that
Speaker 8: still remains in terms of what trade policy is going
Speaker 8: to look like a month or two or three from now.
Speaker 8: And so you know days like today where you have
Speaker 8: really strong arrange reports after the clothes you know from
Speaker 8: the video kind of carrying the open higher and then
Speaker 8: kind of with sawing back down. I think you are
Speaker 8: kind of par for the course. Is we kind of
Speaker 8: think through kind of how markets should behave from now
Speaker 8: to the end of the year, just given you know,
Speaker 8: certainly that still remains.
Speaker 5: So when it comes to Nvidia, is this the ballance
Speaker 5: that we are all hoping for? Like does that really
Speaker 5: help unleash animal spirits or is that just confirmation and
Speaker 5: everything's okay?
Speaker 6: But that's harder for upside.
Speaker 8: Yeah, for Navidia specifically, I think what's unusual about to
Speaker 8: set up into the print was you know, this was
Speaker 8: one of these times where the video was somewhat cheap
Speaker 8: relative to expectations, and so it comes into the question
Speaker 8: whether or not, you know, the buyside and salesite we're
Speaker 8: mismatched in terms of where those expectations sat, and you know, just.
Speaker 4: Kind of get into it a little bit deeper.
Speaker 8: You know, back in April and the video traded south
Speaker 8: of one hundred dollars a share, and if you believe
Speaker 8: kind of the base case that a lot of cell
Speaker 8: side shops are pitching you know, we're talking you know,
Speaker 8: six dollars plus per share in counter your twenty twenty
Speaker 8: six in terms of earnings per share. That makes na
Speaker 8: Vidia sub s and P five hundred multiple name and
Speaker 8: you know that's where kind of the stock was heading
Speaker 8: into the print. Of course, it had kind of rebounded
Speaker 8: with the rest of the market in April, but Navidia
Speaker 8: had historically had always traded thirty five forty times forward
Speaker 8: earnings and it was sub twenty and so you know,
Speaker 8: this has just been a little bit of a sigh
Speaker 8: relief if you're in the video shareholder that the growth
Speaker 8: story is still intact and some of the concerns about
Speaker 8: supply chains and being able to really ramp up you know,
Speaker 8: rack scale black roll systems in the back half of
Speaker 8: this year, it seemed to be in the rear view mayor.
Speaker 2: So Matt does the Nvidia results last night a little
Speaker 2: bit better than expected. That that give kind of a
Speaker 2: green light for tech broadly defined here is that can
Speaker 2: that can can tech continue to be a leader in
Speaker 2: this market?
Speaker 8: Well, if Navida doesn't work with in tech, what else
Speaker 8: is really going to work with in tech?
Speaker 4: So and it should.
Speaker 8: Probably be a little bit a little more specific with
Speaker 8: that within semic inductors level were just going to keep
Speaker 8: it to that kind of industry. Look, how many companies
Speaker 8: can you point to that have to sacrifice ten and
Speaker 8: a half billion dollars for the pigh margin revenue over
Speaker 8: two quarters in the form of base twenty revenue still
Speaker 8: outperform the overall market on a year of date and
Speaker 8: one year basis. There's not a whole lot of them,
Speaker 8: And the video is the only one that I can
Speaker 8: think of that's been able.
Speaker 4: To clear that hurdle.
Speaker 8: But you know, I think if we kind of also
Speaker 8: think about the setup into the quarter, you're kind of
Speaker 8: clearing some of the China uncertainly by just kind of
Speaker 8: removing the revenue piece altogether for them specifically, That's not
Speaker 8: the case for the rest of technology. There's still terror
Speaker 8: related concerns for a lot of other names within tech.
Speaker 8: Navidia is just kind of already kind of pass that,
Speaker 8: and we'll probably have to see some others also pass
Speaker 8: that into the future.
Speaker 5: So we got this trade ruling and then we got
Speaker 5: in Vidia. Does this clear the runway for the S
Speaker 5: and P and now test again record highs or is
Speaker 5: it too early to call that?
Speaker 8: You know, I think it's too early to necessarily, you know,
Speaker 8: believe that you know, the trade related and teriff related
Speaker 8: fears are behind us. You know, while a lot of
Speaker 8: the terriffs were rescinded via the quarter over last night,
Speaker 8: the other avenues to restoring those tariff levels, whether we're
Speaker 8: talking about Section two seventy two, which is still in
Speaker 8: front of us, or some other of the authorities that
Speaker 8: the President has to restore the tariff levels country by country.
Speaker 8: So you know, that uncertainy from my perspective, still remains.
Speaker 8: And and so you know, the runway from here, I
Speaker 8: think is is really just a function of kind of
Speaker 8: how the labor market holds in. We see sentiment data
Speaker 8: really bounce around quite a bit, you know, with the
Speaker 8: consumer with you know, the April second announcement kind of
Speaker 8: really plunging consumer and business confidence, but then it's starting
Speaker 8: to ramp back up a little bit during the Instagram period.
Speaker 8: If we're looking at the April credit card data or
Speaker 8: what we've seen from the Chase card data in the
Speaker 8: weeks of May that you know, sour sentiment on the
Speaker 8: consumer level hasn't really translated to changing spending behavior. In fact,
Speaker 8: it's kind of been a little bit better than expected
Speaker 8: and at least in line with trend level growth that
Speaker 8: we saw earlier in this year. And so while consumers
Speaker 8: are telling us that you know, they're they're anxious about
Speaker 8: kind of the outlook, yeah, that isn't affecting their behavior
Speaker 8: and that's that's ultimately what drives startings.
Speaker 5: All right, good stuff. Really appreciate that you, right, Matt,
Speaker 5: Matt Stuck you vice president, chief portfolio manager of Equities
Speaker 5: at Northwestern a Mutual.
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