WEBVTT - Trump Trade Strategy Roiled by Court Blocking Global Tariffs 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.600 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:14.600 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.640 --> 0:00:18.560 Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.880 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:23.120 us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.520 Alex Steel, Paul Sweeney, We're live here in our Bloomberg 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:27.880 Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.360 as check us out. There a lot going on as 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:33.360 it does as it seems to be every single day 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:36.400 from a policy perspective, news flow coming out of the 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:38.920 White House fast and furious. That's why we check in 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.960 with our next guest almost every day, Nathan Dean, senior 0:00:42.080 --> 0:00:45.600 policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's responsible for all this, folks. 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:46.800 So if you want to complain to somebody, to go 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:49.800 to Nathan Dean. Nathan, what is kind of the latest 0:00:49.800 --> 0:00:55.560 feeling within DC as to how this tariff situation may unfold? 0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:57.920 Here to now that the courts are starting to weigh in? 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:01.440 So I think the Washington and started taking the approach 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:03.920 that you know, this terrif fight is not over. Obviously, 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.680 the courts have said that you know, President Trump's authority 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:10.600 on AEPA or this International Emergency Economic Powers Act is 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:12.920 somewhat limited, and obviously we'll see that play out at 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:15.199 the Supreme Court later this week. But you know, President 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.520 Trump has other tools in his tool belt. Now I'll 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.280 say things like section one twenty two or three thirty 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:22.120 eight or three ZHO one. But what you need to 0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:24.679 know is President Trump does have the authority under one 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:27.920 twenty two to implement a fifteen percent tariff right away 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:30.119 up to one hundred and fifty days. Three thirty eight 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.200 can go up to a fifty percent tariff. Now this 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.440 three oh one two thirty two that requires investigations. Where 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:37.520 I'm going at with this is that there are other 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:39.240 tools that President Trump has. 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:40.560 To implement these tariffs. 0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:42.759 And so the courts came down on AEPA, and that's 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:44.920 certainly that court case is going to play out. But 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:47.080 if the White House decides to retreat and says, you 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:49.480 know what, let's go about a different avenue here. And 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:51.520 this is what Peter Navarro hinted at when he spoke 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.680 earlier on Bloomberg Television. You know, they can certainly reinstitute 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:56.560 these tariffs. It's just going to have to go through 0:01:56.560 --> 0:01:59.520 a different process. The good news for investors though, is 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.440 that the pro is usually a little bit more transparent 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:05.400 than President Trump just implementing these via truth. 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:09.560 Social Does it matter, How does this read through to 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:13.680 say the budget deficit, because raising revenue through tariffs was 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.200 like a big part of that bill. 0:02:16.919 --> 0:02:18.920 So it doesn't really impact it all that much. 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.320 So Congress is trying to actually pass this one big, 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:23.880 beautiful bill, and they've known in the back of their 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.240 minds that this tariff discussion is taking place, but it's 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:29.760 not in the record, it's not part of the calculations 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:30.560 of that bill. 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:32.400 So you know, it's almost like. 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.280 They're just keeping in the back of the mind and said, Okay, 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:36.240 maybe we're going to be able to support this. But 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:38.000 if you take out all the tariff for revenue and 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:40.240 you just presume that we're not going to collect anything else, 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:41.600 Congress is still going. 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:42.360 To pass this bill. 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.080 You know, the Republicans are fairly aligned with President Trump 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:48.079 when it comes to extending these tax cuts and also 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.920 for these additional one point five trillion dollars in taxes 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:53.520 in terms of like no taxes on tips, no taxes 0:02:53.560 --> 0:02:54.560 on overtime. 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:54.600 Et cetera. 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:57.519 So the cost proportion of it is there, but I 0:02:57.520 --> 0:02:59.400 don't think Congress is really going to pay attention to it. 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:00.639 They're going to still pass this thing. 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:05.120 So what's the status of this tax bill? I mean 0:03:05.200 --> 0:03:09.080 just timing wise talked about getting lost in the clutter 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.399 of the news here. Where are we with the timing here? 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:15.160 Yeah, so the White House wants this passed by the 0:03:15.200 --> 0:03:17.600 fourth of July. It's obviously past the House. It's now 0:03:17.639 --> 0:03:19.840 over in the Senate. Now the Senate is out this week, 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:23.280 there's been discussions among staffers of trying to figure out 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:24.000 what in. 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.280 The House will pass what's known as the Bird rule. 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.120 Essentially, are there provisions of this House bill that just 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.240 won't work through the process of reconciliation. 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:33.720 Now, I don't think that really is all that important to. 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:35.880 The tax or the Medicaid or to the Inflation Reduction 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:38.840 Act portion. But next week we should see the Senators 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:41.960 come back and we'll start to see discussions of what 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.120 are they going to pair back from the House bill, 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:46.720 things like Medicaid work requirements, you know they would kick 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:48.800 in under at the end of twenty twenty six that 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:50.279 potentially geld get pushed. 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:52.240 Back very important to solar investors. 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.920 The Inflation Reduction Act, some of that language could also 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:55.720 get paired back. 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:57.280 We'll probably see that play out. 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:59.320 Over the next two to three weeks, and then I 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.640 think the Senate, if they had all their ducks aligned, 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.280 would try and go for a vote, probably by mid 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:06.760 to late June. But I don't be surprised if this 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:08.880 just leads back another couple weeks and we see this 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:09.360 in July. 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.160 Elon Musk apparently Ditch and d C didn't like the 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:15.760 bureaucracy going to go back to his company. What does 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.200 that do for DOGE, for cost cutting, for anything. 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:21.200 So there's two really aspects of the DOGE that's really 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.279 important to investors, and that's obviously you know, what is 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:27.279 the federal government spending outside of this one big beautiful 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:30.960 bill aka the appropriations process? Now Bloomberg Government actually put 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:32.400 out a piece this morning. They have a really cool 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.120 chart in there that shows you the government expenditures by 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:38.000 agency for the month of May for twenty twenty five 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.560 versus twenty twenty four, and the agencies are spending almost 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:44.360 about half of what they spent last year. So DOGE 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.359 has definitely done an importance. You know, the influence in 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:51.240 terms of getting agencies to spend less. But ultimately it 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.520 is Congress that needs to decide what the appropriations is 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:57.000 and what is to spend here. That's going to come 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.359 up in September, but it's also going to come up 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.040 in a recision package. The White House will most likely 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:04.120 send you to the House next week and they'll say, look, 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:06.920 we want to codify a lot of these Doge cuts. 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:08.600 We need you to pass this. 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:11.680 I would say, though, even though the filibuster isn't subject 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:13.880 to this, so just it requires a majority vote the House. 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:15.320 In the Senate, a lot of. 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:18.039 Times policymakers are like, look, I love the idea of 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:21.000 cutting federal waste on paper, but a lot of that 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:23.400 federal waste is also going to buy my district. So 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:25.880 I'm not sure this package will continue or it will pass. 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.040 And I will say, just at least at a first glance, 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:31.440 we're not seeing many market impacts to this recisions package. 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.960 All right, I'm just looking at some BI litigation. We 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:38.240 have some folks in Bloomberg Intelligence that just look at 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:41.960 litigation because it impacts industries and impacts companies, and sure enough, 0:05:42.040 --> 0:05:47.440 tariffs are first and foremost here. BI litigation analysis thinks 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:51.120 there's a sixty percent chance the Supreme Court will side 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:54.039 with the Court's ruling and that teriffs may exceed the 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:58.080 President's authority, but it will be very close. So that 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:01.440 seems to be what President Trump and this administration are 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:03.640 betting on that they can get this past the court. 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.280 Yeah, you know, so that obviously, you. 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:08.479 Know that's my colleagues, and my colleague Holly from is 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:10.680 the one that's leading this effort. She's actually chatting with 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.960 clients as we speak. But I will say that I 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:15.120 was talking to her prior to coming on air, and 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:17.280 she said that if the Supreme Court were to come 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:19.400 out and say we are going to take up this 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:22.920 case and potentially implement at stay, that could be indicative 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.760 of their thinking going forward, because you know the red 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.600 line that you showed before I came on the air, 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.280 talked about how the Supreme Court could potentially take this 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:32.839 up this week. If we see signs from the Supreme 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.960 Court that they're somewhat amicable to fast tracking this ultimately, 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:38.080 it could be beneficial. 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:39.960 Now still it's very close to call. 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.880 But Holly's original timeline is that if the Supreme Court 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:44.800 says that they're not going to take it up, and 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:46.719 this actually may have to go through the court appeals 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:49.040 and so forth. You would see an ultimate decision on 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:50.440 this in the fourth quarter of this year. 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:52.920 What kind of questions are clients asking me right now, 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.280 Like the world really changed in the last couple of weeks, 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:56.440 Where do they asking you the most? 0:06:57.240 --> 0:06:59.479 Well, obviously with today, you know, it's the tear for 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:01.960 news and how our companies preparing for this are tariff's 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.039 off as we speak, you know, And our response to 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:06.880 that is obviously, you know, the White House has the 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:07.839 ability to re appeal. 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:08.680 They have appealed. 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:11.840 But really it's just the future of what President Trump 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:13.600 wants to do in terms of tariffs. 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.680 Obviously there was discussion yesterday the taco. 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:18.720 Trade, if you will, And what I will say is 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:21.520 that President Trump truly believes in tariffs. He still believes 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:23.640 in them. He believes them as a point of leverage 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.200 and a point of negotiation. And so whether or not 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:29.119 it's using AEPA or Section three oh one or Section 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:31.680 two thirty two, tariffs are here to stay, and they're 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:33.880 most likely here to stay for the next four years. 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:35.880 But are you getting a tariff like one hundred and 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:38.240 forty five percent tariff on China or are you getting 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:40.640 a ten percent tariff on the United Kingdom. Those are 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:43.000 the questions that the clients want to know, and we'll 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:43.960 see that play out. 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:45.160 Over the next few weeks and months. 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.760 And Nathan, I can't help but notice that the Democrats 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:51.920 are awfully, awfully quiet these days. They've been since the 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:55.960 beginning of President Trump's administration. And my understanding was, yes, 0:07:56.000 --> 0:08:00.000 they're a minority, but not by much and those razors, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.200 wh's a majority for the Republicans. It doesn't feel that 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.720 way from the Democrats. It might overthinking then. 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.000 No, actually, the Democrats are somewhat irrelevant when it comes 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:09.960 to tariff's. 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:11.239 And also the One Big Beautiful Bill. 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.360 Because tariffs, President Trump is doing this via executive authority, 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:16.720 so the Democrats aren't involved. And when it comes to 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:19.320 the One Big Beautiful Bill, they're doing it via reconciliation, 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:23.040 which bypasses the Democrats. But the Democrats will be able 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:25.480 to start to fight back later this year because once 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:27.960 the Big Beautiful Bill passes, that's. 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:29.080 About it for Congress. 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:31.720 And so come September you're gonna have things like the 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:34.760 government funding or a government shutdown, and so forth, and 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:37.040 the Democrats are really going to try and start positioning 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:40.000 themselves for next year. It's just that the Republicans are 0:08:40.080 --> 0:08:43.960 using procedures and processes at the moment that bypasses them, 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:46.280 and as a result, Democrats are really struggling to figure 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:47.120 out how to combat that. 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:49.480 All right, Nathan, really appreciate it. 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.640 Thank you very much, Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst. 0:08:53.640 --> 0:08:56.319 He's definitely really busy, but I feel like maybe things have. 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:57.360 Calmed down a little bit for him. 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:01.280 Yeah, and he's relative from what this breadth. 0:09:01.080 --> 0:09:03.680 Of knowledge is just amazes me about how all that 0:09:03.720 --> 0:09:04.319 stuff works. 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:09.480 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.600 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, and Android 0:09:12.640 --> 0:09:15.959 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:19.120 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:22.200 Let's get more on where we are with Harvard and 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:26.839 President Trump. I'm the latest evolution of this drama. Janet Lauren, 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:29.760 higher education finance reporter. I joins us now from Bloomberry. 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:31.320 I didn't think you probably didn't think you'd be this 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:33.160 busy in this particular way. 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:38.079 All right, what's the latest well the latest well right now, 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:39.280 commencement is going on. 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.200 Okay, so that's the speakers this year. 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.360 Yesterday, i believe it for the class date was Kareem 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:51.000 Abdul Jabbar for the undergraduate cool. So you know, this 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.680 should be in some ways a really happy celebratory time 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:58.280 for Harvard, which it is, and especially for students and 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:00.880 their parents and their grandparent parents who welcome. 0:10:01.840 --> 0:10:05.160 But just like last year, there is a palpable. 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:10.920 Tension at Harvard around graduation. Last year the question of protests. 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:13.559 What was going to happen an animal rights. 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:17.280 Activist through glitter on President Alan Garber during the ceremony. 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:18.679 And today, you. 0:10:18.640 --> 0:10:21.360 Know, there is also a very palpable tension, but it's 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:25.439 a very different one, especially with international students, because it's 0:10:25.559 --> 0:10:30.040 unclear what their fate is. It appeared that yesterday the 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:36.199 State Department has perhaps widened that ban on visas regarding 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:41.640 all all those with Chinese affiliations at Harvard. It keeps 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.000 things keep changing. It's hard to keep track on what's 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:48.240 actually happening. But but today, you know, should be a 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:50.320 happy day for the students at Harvard. 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:55.520 Harvard it just feels again I have zero affiliation with Harvard. 0:10:56.160 --> 0:11:00.400 They're being targeted here by this administration visa VI Ivy 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:04.160 League schools or the University of Texas or the University 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:05.560 of Florida or anything like that. 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:10.440 Do we know why, Well, Harvard is the biggest prize 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:10.840 out there. 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:12.800 It's you know, we've talked about this before. 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:16.440 It's the oldest university in America, it predates the country. 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.840 It's the richest school with a fifty three billion dollar endowment. 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:24.480 And in some ways it's more symbolic. What else if 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:27.040 you want to make a point, everybody in the world 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.840 knows the brand of Harvard very powerful, you know, almost 0:11:31.000 --> 0:11:34.320 in some ways like a luxury good, especially when viewed overseas. 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:39.520 And yesterday President Trump talked in the Oval Office about 0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:43.560 Harvard should cap the number of foreign students at fifteen percent. 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.959 It's more like twenty seven percent now, and I think 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.720 that number is surprising to a lot of people, that 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:53.200 these campuses have almost more than a quarter of the 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:54.640 students are from other countries. 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:56.720 Well to that point, there is a headline that the 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.880 Harvard case judge is now expanding the block of president 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:04.280 comes foreign student ban. Does that imply that more foreign 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:07.240 students get to stay on are allowed to sort of 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:09.880 stay at Harvard or apply to be at Harvard. 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.000 Well, keep in mind that just because the judge has 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.200 blocked something doesn't mean if you're a student, you're going 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:20.240 to be making decisions based on what's going to happen 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.199 over the next two years or four years, and you 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:26.200 want to be able to stay and complete your education. 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:28.360 And I have to think, oh my god, I have 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:29.000 to transfer. 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.199 I have to find a place that has an open 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:32.760 spot and would take me. 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.960 And you know, with my affiliation with Duke University, I 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:39.359 saw this at the board level the first Trump administration, 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:41.559 and now again it's the exact same thing is happening. 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:41.680 Now. 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.800 They're seeing it drop in applications and interests from foreign 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.040 students because they just don't know what the situation is 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:49.520 going to be a week from now, a year from now, 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.720 three years from now. All they know is I don't 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.240 feel as welcomed as I thought I would or I'm 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.000 going to need to be. So I'm going to look 0:12:57.040 --> 0:12:58.680 to Canada, I'm going to look to Europe and things 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:02.160 like that. Hell hard, do you think Harvard really is going. 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:02.480 To fight this? 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.560 Do you think just all of these things across the whole. 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:07.920 I guess, you know, panically what's going on. 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:11.880 Well, Harvard has already filed two lawsuits. The first one 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.000 was in April in response to a letter that the 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:20.400 administration made lots of demands, and Harvard doesn't disagree with 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.760 some of the things the government is asking for, but 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.080 it does disagree in the way that it is going 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:30.280 about it. So Harvard also has to feel like it's 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:33.920 supporting its constituency, the students. 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.360 They have to show that they're supporting the students. 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.840 And I think in some ways the Harvard faculty has 0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:44.840 never felt more unified. You know, there's lots of different 0:13:44.880 --> 0:13:48.319 factions there. Certainly the humanities faculty are not going to 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.640 agree with some things that the that the science faculty 0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.960 and priorities, But in some ways this has unified them 0:13:56.040 --> 0:14:01.600 and perhaps alumni because they somebody is standing up to 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.120 Trump and Harvard is a very rich entity. 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:06.640 Jenet, fascinating. 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:08.600 I'm sure going to be talking to you more in 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.160 the future regarding this and other topics in higher education. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.320 Janet Lauren, higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News, joining 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:17.400 us live here in our interactive Growker's studio. 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:22.880 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:26.000 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.360 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.520 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:35.760 Let's go to match. Docky, chief portfolio manager for Equity said. 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:39.960 He said, Northwestern Mutual Wealth out there in Milwaukee, pound 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.400 for pound, some of the best money managers. 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:42.880 In the world a Milwaukee. 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:44.840 I have no idea. Why, Matt, what do you make 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:46.840 of this market? I mean, we were down twenty percent, 0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:50.880 we've retraced much of that decline, and now you're to date, 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.400 we're basically unched on the year. 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:54.720 Where do we go from here? 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:59.080 Well, good morning, thanks for having me back. Look, I mean, 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:02.320 I think the market's like they stay pretty volatile. You know, 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.640 while you know we've round tripped, you know, the Terriff 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.760 and Duce losses in April, by no means that we 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:11.400 have the woods, just in terms of the uncertainty that 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.680 still remains in terms of what trade policy is going 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.320 to look like a month or two or three from now. 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.880 And so you know days like today where you have 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.720 really strong arrange reports after the clothes you know from 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.160 the video kind of carrying the open higher and then 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:27.280 kind of with sawing back down. I think you are 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:28.920 kind of par for the course. Is we kind of 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.280 think through kind of how markets should behave from now 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:33.720 to the end of the year, just given you know, 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.080 certainly that still remains. 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.760 So when it comes to Nvidia, is this the ballance 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:41.160 that we are all hoping for? Like does that really 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.800 help unleash animal spirits or is that just confirmation and 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:44.960 everything's okay? 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:46.600 But that's harder for upside. 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:51.760 Yeah, for Navidia specifically, I think what's unusual about to 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:53.520 set up into the print was you know, this was 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:57.880 one of these times where the video was somewhat cheap 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:02.080 relative to expectations, and so it comes into the question 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:05.200 whether or not, you know, the buyside and salesite we're 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:08.520 mismatched in terms of where those expectations sat, and you know, just. 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.600 Kind of get into it a little bit deeper. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:13.200 You know, back in April and the video traded south 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.080 of one hundred dollars a share, and if you believe 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:18.760 kind of the base case that a lot of cell 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:23.120 side shops are pitching you know, we're talking you know, 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:26.280 six dollars plus per share in counter your twenty twenty 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.680 six in terms of earnings per share. That makes na 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:33.920 Vidia sub s and P five hundred multiple name and 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.160 you know that's where kind of the stock was heading 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.040 into the print. Of course, it had kind of rebounded 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.520 with the rest of the market in April, but Navidia 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:46.520 had historically had always traded thirty five forty times forward 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.760 earnings and it was sub twenty and so you know, 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:51.320 this has just been a little bit of a sigh 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.320 relief if you're in the video shareholder that the growth 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:56.440 story is still intact and some of the concerns about 0:16:56.440 --> 0:17:01.920 supply chains and being able to really ramp up you know, 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:05.080 rack scale black roll systems in the back half of 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.800 this year, it seemed to be in the rear view mayor. 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.280 So Matt does the Nvidia results last night a little 0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:11.919 bit better than expected. That that give kind of a 0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:15.280 green light for tech broadly defined here is that can 0:17:15.280 --> 0:17:17.199 that can can tech continue to be a leader in 0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:17.719 this market? 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:20.560 Well, if Navida doesn't work with in tech, what else 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:21.920 is really going to work with in tech? 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:24.879 So and it should. 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.159 Probably be a little bit a little more specific with 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:29.320 that within semic inductors level were just going to keep 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:33.520 it to that kind of industry. Look, how many companies 0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:36.280 can you point to that have to sacrifice ten and 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:38.480 a half billion dollars for the pigh margin revenue over 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:41.080 two quarters in the form of base twenty revenue still 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:43.240 outperform the overall market on a year of date and 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:45.360 one year basis. There's not a whole lot of them, 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:47.120 And the video is the only one that I can 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:48.560 think of that's been able. 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:50.719 To clear that hurdle. 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:55.640 But you know, I think if we kind of also 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:57.840 think about the setup into the quarter, you're kind of 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:00.600 clearing some of the China uncertainly by just kind of 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:04.600 removing the revenue piece altogether for them specifically, That's not 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.240 the case for the rest of technology. There's still terror 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.800 related concerns for a lot of other names within tech. 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:12.439 Navidia is just kind of already kind of pass that, 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:15.320 and we'll probably have to see some others also pass 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:16.440 that into the future. 0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:19.200 So we got this trade ruling and then we got 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:21.639 in Vidia. Does this clear the runway for the S 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:24.639 and P and now test again record highs or is 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:25.880 it too early to call that? 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.159