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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am

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Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Alex Steel, Paul Sweeney, We're live here in our Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well

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Speaker 2: as check us out. There a lot going on as

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Speaker 2: it does as it seems to be every single day

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Speaker 2: from a policy perspective, news flow coming out of the

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Speaker 2: White House fast and furious. That's why we check in

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Speaker 2: with our next guest almost every day, Nathan Dean, senior

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Speaker 2: policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's responsible for all this, folks.

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Speaker 2: So if you want to complain to somebody, to go

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Speaker 2: to Nathan Dean. Nathan, what is kind of the latest

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Speaker 2: feeling within DC as to how this tariff situation may unfold?

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Speaker 2: Here to now that the courts are starting to weigh in?

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Speaker 3: So I think the Washington and started taking the approach

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Speaker 3: that you know, this terrif fight is not over. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: the courts have said that you know, President Trump's authority

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Speaker 3: on AEPA or this International Emergency Economic Powers Act is

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Speaker 3: somewhat limited, and obviously we'll see that play out at

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Speaker 3: the Supreme Court later this week. But you know, President

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Speaker 3: Trump has other tools in his tool belt. Now I'll

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Speaker 3: say things like section one twenty two or three thirty

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Speaker 3: eight or three ZHO one. But what you need to

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Speaker 3: know is President Trump does have the authority under one

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Speaker 3: twenty two to implement a fifteen percent tariff right away

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Speaker 3: up to one hundred and fifty days. Three thirty eight

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Speaker 3: can go up to a fifty percent tariff. Now this

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Speaker 3: three oh one two thirty two that requires investigations. Where

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Speaker 3: I'm going at with this is that there are other

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Speaker 3: tools that President Trump has.

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Speaker 4: To implement these tariffs.

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Speaker 3: And so the courts came down on AEPA, and that's

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Speaker 3: certainly that court case is going to play out. But

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Speaker 3: if the White House decides to retreat and says, you

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Speaker 3: know what, let's go about a different avenue here. And

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Speaker 3: this is what Peter Navarro hinted at when he spoke

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Speaker 3: earlier on Bloomberg Television. You know, they can certainly reinstitute

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Speaker 3: these tariffs. It's just going to have to go through

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Speaker 3: a different process. The good news for investors though, is

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Speaker 3: that the pro is usually a little bit more transparent

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Speaker 3: than President Trump just implementing these via truth.

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Speaker 5: Social Does it matter, How does this read through to

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Speaker 5: say the budget deficit, because raising revenue through tariffs was

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Speaker 5: like a big part of that bill.

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Speaker 4: So it doesn't really impact it all that much.

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Speaker 3: So Congress is trying to actually pass this one big,

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Speaker 3: beautiful bill, and they've known in the back of their

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Speaker 3: minds that this tariff discussion is taking place, but it's

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Speaker 3: not in the record, it's not part of the calculations

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Speaker 3: of that bill.

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Speaker 4: So you know, it's almost like.

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Speaker 3: They're just keeping in the back of the mind and said, Okay,

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Speaker 3: maybe we're going to be able to support this. But

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Speaker 3: if you take out all the tariff for revenue and

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Speaker 3: you just presume that we're not going to collect anything else,

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Speaker 3: Congress is still going.

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Speaker 4: To pass this bill.

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Speaker 3: You know, the Republicans are fairly aligned with President Trump

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Speaker 3: when it comes to extending these tax cuts and also

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Speaker 3: for these additional one point five trillion dollars in taxes

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Speaker 3: in terms of like no taxes on tips, no taxes

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Speaker 3: on overtime.

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Speaker 4: Et cetera.

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Speaker 3: So the cost proportion of it is there, but I

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Speaker 3: don't think Congress is really going to pay attention to it.

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Speaker 4: They're going to still pass this thing.

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Speaker 2: So what's the status of this tax bill? I mean

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Speaker 2: just timing wise talked about getting lost in the clutter

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Speaker 2: of the news here. Where are we with the timing here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so the White House wants this passed by the

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Speaker 3: fourth of July. It's obviously past the House. It's now

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Speaker 3: over in the Senate. Now the Senate is out this week,

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Speaker 3: there's been discussions among staffers of trying to figure out

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Speaker 3: what in.

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Speaker 4: The House will pass what's known as the Bird rule.

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Speaker 3: Essentially, are there provisions of this House bill that just

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Speaker 3: won't work through the process of reconciliation.

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Speaker 4: Now, I don't think that really is all that important to.

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Speaker 3: The tax or the Medicaid or to the Inflation Reduction

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Speaker 3: Act portion. But next week we should see the Senators

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Speaker 3: come back and we'll start to see discussions of what

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Speaker 3: are they going to pair back from the House bill,

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Speaker 3: things like Medicaid work requirements, you know they would kick

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Speaker 3: in under at the end of twenty twenty six that

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Speaker 3: potentially geld get pushed.

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Speaker 4: Back very important to solar investors.

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Speaker 3: The Inflation Reduction Act, some of that language could also

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Speaker 3: get paired back.

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Speaker 4: We'll probably see that play out.

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Speaker 3: Over the next two to three weeks, and then I

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Speaker 3: think the Senate, if they had all their ducks aligned,

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Speaker 3: would try and go for a vote, probably by mid

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Speaker 3: to late June. But I don't be surprised if this

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Speaker 3: just leads back another couple weeks and we see this

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Speaker 3: in July.

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Speaker 5: Elon Musk apparently Ditch and d C didn't like the

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Speaker 5: bureaucracy going to go back to his company. What does

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Speaker 5: that do for DOGE, for cost cutting, for anything.

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Speaker 3: So there's two really aspects of the DOGE that's really

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Speaker 3: important to investors, and that's obviously you know, what is

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Speaker 3: the federal government spending outside of this one big beautiful

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Speaker 3: bill aka the appropriations process? Now Bloomberg Government actually put

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Speaker 3: out a piece this morning. They have a really cool

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Speaker 3: chart in there that shows you the government expenditures by

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Speaker 3: agency for the month of May for twenty twenty five

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Speaker 3: versus twenty twenty four, and the agencies are spending almost

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Speaker 3: about half of what they spent last year. So DOGE

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Speaker 3: has definitely done an importance. You know, the influence in

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Speaker 3: terms of getting agencies to spend less. But ultimately it

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Speaker 3: is Congress that needs to decide what the appropriations is

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Speaker 3: and what is to spend here. That's going to come

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Speaker 3: up in September, but it's also going to come up

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Speaker 3: in a recision package. The White House will most likely

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Speaker 3: send you to the House next week and they'll say, look,

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Speaker 3: we want to codify a lot of these Doge cuts.

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Speaker 4: We need you to pass this.

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Speaker 3: I would say, though, even though the filibuster isn't subject

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Speaker 3: to this, so just it requires a majority vote the House.

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Speaker 4: In the Senate, a lot of.

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Speaker 3: Times policymakers are like, look, I love the idea of

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Speaker 3: cutting federal waste on paper, but a lot of that

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Speaker 3: federal waste is also going to buy my district. So

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure this package will continue or it will pass.

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Speaker 3: And I will say, just at least at a first glance,

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Speaker 3: we're not seeing many market impacts to this recisions package.

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Speaker 2: All right, I'm just looking at some BI litigation. We

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Speaker 2: have some folks in Bloomberg Intelligence that just look at

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Speaker 2: litigation because it impacts industries and impacts companies, and sure enough,

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Speaker 2: tariffs are first and foremost here. BI litigation analysis thinks

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Speaker 2: there's a sixty percent chance the Supreme Court will side

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Speaker 2: with the Court's ruling and that teriffs may exceed the

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Speaker 2: President's authority, but it will be very close. So that

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Speaker 2: seems to be what President Trump and this administration are

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Speaker 2: betting on that they can get this past the court.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, so that obviously, you.

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Speaker 3: Know that's my colleagues, and my colleague Holly from is

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Speaker 3: the one that's leading this effort. She's actually chatting with

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Speaker 3: clients as we speak. But I will say that I

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Speaker 3: was talking to her prior to coming on air, and

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Speaker 3: she said that if the Supreme Court were to come

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Speaker 3: out and say we are going to take up this

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Speaker 3: case and potentially implement at stay, that could be indicative

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Speaker 3: of their thinking going forward, because you know the red

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Speaker 3: line that you showed before I came on the air,

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Speaker 3: talked about how the Supreme Court could potentially take this

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Speaker 3: up this week. If we see signs from the Supreme

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Speaker 3: Court that they're somewhat amicable to fast tracking this ultimately,

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Speaker 3: it could be beneficial.

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Speaker 4: Now still it's very close to call.

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Speaker 3: But Holly's original timeline is that if the Supreme Court

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Speaker 3: says that they're not going to take it up, and

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Speaker 3: this actually may have to go through the court appeals

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Speaker 3: and so forth. You would see an ultimate decision on

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Speaker 3: this in the fourth quarter of this year.

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Speaker 5: What kind of questions are clients asking me right now,

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Speaker 5: Like the world really changed in the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 5: Where do they asking you the most?

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Speaker 3: Well, obviously with today, you know, it's the tear for

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Speaker 3: news and how our companies preparing for this are tariff's

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Speaker 3: off as we speak, you know, And our response to

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Speaker 3: that is obviously, you know, the White House has the

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Speaker 3: ability to re appeal.

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Speaker 4: They have appealed.

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Speaker 3: But really it's just the future of what President Trump

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Speaker 3: wants to do in terms of tariffs.

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Speaker 4: Obviously there was discussion yesterday the taco.

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Speaker 3: Trade, if you will, And what I will say is

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Speaker 3: that President Trump truly believes in tariffs. He still believes

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Speaker 3: in them. He believes them as a point of leverage

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Speaker 3: and a point of negotiation. And so whether or not

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Speaker 3: it's using AEPA or Section three oh one or Section

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Speaker 3: two thirty two, tariffs are here to stay, and they're

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Speaker 3: most likely here to stay for the next four years.

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Speaker 3: But are you getting a tariff like one hundred and

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Speaker 3: forty five percent tariff on China or are you getting

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Speaker 3: a ten percent tariff on the United Kingdom. Those are

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Speaker 3: the questions that the clients want to know, and we'll

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Speaker 3: see that play out.

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Speaker 4: Over the next few weeks and months.

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Speaker 2: And Nathan, I can't help but notice that the Democrats

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Speaker 2: are awfully, awfully quiet these days. They've been since the

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Speaker 2: beginning of President Trump's administration. And my understanding was, yes,

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Speaker 2: they're a minority, but not by much and those razors,

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Speaker 2: wh's a majority for the Republicans. It doesn't feel that

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Speaker 2: way from the Democrats. It might overthinking then.

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Speaker 3: No, actually, the Democrats are somewhat irrelevant when it comes

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Speaker 3: to tariff's.

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Speaker 4: And also the One Big Beautiful Bill.

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Speaker 3: Because tariffs, President Trump is doing this via executive authority,

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Speaker 3: so the Democrats aren't involved. And when it comes to

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Speaker 3: the One Big Beautiful Bill, they're doing it via reconciliation,

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Speaker 3: which bypasses the Democrats. But the Democrats will be able

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Speaker 3: to start to fight back later this year because once

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Speaker 3: the Big Beautiful Bill passes, that's.

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Speaker 4: About it for Congress.

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Speaker 3: And so come September you're gonna have things like the

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Speaker 3: government funding or a government shutdown, and so forth, and

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Speaker 3: the Democrats are really going to try and start positioning

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Speaker 3: themselves for next year. It's just that the Republicans are

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Speaker 3: using procedures and processes at the moment that bypasses them,

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Speaker 3: and as a result, Democrats are really struggling to figure

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Speaker 3: out how to combat that.

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Speaker 6: All right, Nathan, really appreciate it.

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Speaker 5: Thank you very much, Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst.

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Speaker 5: He's definitely really busy, but I feel like maybe things have.

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Speaker 6: Calmed down a little bit for him.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and he's relative from what this breadth.

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Speaker 2: Of knowledge is just amazes me about how all that

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Speaker 2: stuff works.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 5: Let's get more on where we are with Harvard and

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Speaker 5: President Trump. I'm the latest evolution of this drama. Janet Lauren,

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Speaker 5: higher education finance reporter. I joins us now from Bloomberry.

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Speaker 5: I didn't think you probably didn't think you'd be this

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Speaker 5: busy in this particular way.

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Speaker 6: All right, what's the latest well the latest well right now,

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Speaker 6: commencement is going on.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so that's the speakers this year.

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Speaker 7: Yesterday, i believe it for the class date was Kareem

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Speaker 7: Abdul Jabbar for the undergraduate cool. So you know, this

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Speaker 7: should be in some ways a really happy celebratory time

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Speaker 7: for Harvard, which it is, and especially for students and

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Speaker 7: their parents and their grandparent parents who welcome.

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Speaker 6: But just like last year, there is a palpable.

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Speaker 7: Tension at Harvard around graduation. Last year the question of protests.

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Speaker 6: What was going to happen an animal rights.

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Speaker 7: Activist through glitter on President Alan Garber during the ceremony.

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Speaker 6: And today, you.

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Speaker 7: Know, there is also a very palpable tension, but it's

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Speaker 7: a very different one, especially with international students, because it's

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Speaker 7: unclear what their fate is. It appeared that yesterday the

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Speaker 7: State Department has perhaps widened that ban on visas regarding

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Speaker 7: all all those with Chinese affiliations at Harvard. It keeps

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Speaker 7: things keep changing. It's hard to keep track on what's

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Speaker 7: actually happening. But but today, you know, should be a

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Speaker 7: happy day for the students at Harvard.

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Speaker 2: Harvard it just feels again I have zero affiliation with Harvard.

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Speaker 2: They're being targeted here by this administration visa VI Ivy

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Speaker 2: League schools or the University of Texas or the University

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Speaker 2: of Florida or anything like that.

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Speaker 7: Do we know why, Well, Harvard is the biggest prize

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Speaker 7: out there.

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Speaker 6: It's you know, we've talked about this before.

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Speaker 7: It's the oldest university in America, it predates the country.

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Speaker 7: It's the richest school with a fifty three billion dollar endowment.

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Speaker 7: And in some ways it's more symbolic. What else if

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Speaker 7: you want to make a point, everybody in the world

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Speaker 7: knows the brand of Harvard very powerful, you know, almost

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Speaker 7: in some ways like a luxury good, especially when viewed overseas.

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Speaker 7: And yesterday President Trump talked in the Oval Office about

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Speaker 7: Harvard should cap the number of foreign students at fifteen percent.

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Speaker 7: It's more like twenty seven percent now, and I think

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Speaker 7: that number is surprising to a lot of people, that

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Speaker 7: these campuses have almost more than a quarter of the

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Speaker 7: students are from other countries.

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Speaker 5: Well to that point, there is a headline that the

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Speaker 5: Harvard case judge is now expanding the block of president

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Speaker 5: comes foreign student ban. Does that imply that more foreign

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Speaker 5: students get to stay on are allowed to sort of

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Speaker 5: stay at Harvard or apply to be at Harvard.

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Speaker 7: Well, keep in mind that just because the judge has

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Speaker 7: blocked something doesn't mean if you're a student, you're going

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Speaker 7: to be making decisions based on what's going to happen

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Speaker 7: over the next two years or four years, and you

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Speaker 7: want to be able to stay and complete your education.

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Speaker 6: And I have to think, oh my god, I have

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Speaker 6: to transfer.

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Speaker 7: I have to find a place that has an open

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Speaker 7: spot and would take me.

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Speaker 2: And you know, with my affiliation with Duke University, I

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Speaker 2: saw this at the board level the first Trump administration,

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Speaker 2: and now again it's the exact same thing is happening.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 2: They're seeing it drop in applications and interests from foreign

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Speaker 2: students because they just don't know what the situation is

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Speaker 2: going to be a week from now, a year from now,

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Speaker 2: three years from now. All they know is I don't

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Speaker 2: feel as welcomed as I thought I would or I'm

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Speaker 2: going to need to be. So I'm going to look

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Speaker 2: to Canada, I'm going to look to Europe and things

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Speaker 2: like that. Hell hard, do you think Harvard really is going.

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Speaker 4: To fight this?

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Speaker 2: Do you think just all of these things across the whole.

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Speaker 2: I guess, you know, panically what's going on.

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Speaker 7: Well, Harvard has already filed two lawsuits. The first one

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Speaker 7: was in April in response to a letter that the

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Speaker 7: administration made lots of demands, and Harvard doesn't disagree with

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Speaker 7: some of the things the government is asking for, but

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Speaker 7: it does disagree in the way that it is going

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Speaker 7: about it. So Harvard also has to feel like it's

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Speaker 7: supporting its constituency, the students.

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Speaker 6: They have to show that they're supporting the students.

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Speaker 7: And I think in some ways the Harvard faculty has

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Speaker 7: never felt more unified. You know, there's lots of different

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Speaker 7: factions there. Certainly the humanities faculty are not going to

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Speaker 7: agree with some things that the that the science faculty

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Speaker 7: and priorities, But in some ways this has unified them

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Speaker 7: and perhaps alumni because they somebody is standing up to

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Speaker 7: Trump and Harvard is a very rich entity.

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Speaker 4: Jenet, fascinating.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure going to be talking to you more in

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Speaker 2: the future regarding this and other topics in higher education.

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Speaker 2: Janet Lauren, higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News, joining

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Speaker 2: us live here in our interactive Growker's studio.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to match. Docky, chief portfolio manager for Equity said.

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Speaker 2: He said, Northwestern Mutual Wealth out there in Milwaukee, pound

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Speaker 2: for pound, some of the best money managers.

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Speaker 6: In the world a Milwaukee.

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Speaker 2: I have no idea. Why, Matt, what do you make

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Speaker 2: of this market? I mean, we were down twenty percent,

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Speaker 2: we've retraced much of that decline, and now you're to date,

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Speaker 2: we're basically unched on the year.

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Speaker 4: Where do we go from here?

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Speaker 8: Well, good morning, thanks for having me back. Look, I mean,

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Speaker 8: I think the market's like they stay pretty volatile. You know,

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Speaker 8: while you know we've round tripped, you know, the Terriff

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Speaker 8: and Duce losses in April, by no means that we

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Speaker 8: have the woods, just in terms of the uncertainty that

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Speaker 8: still remains in terms of what trade policy is going

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Speaker 8: to look like a month or two or three from now.

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Speaker 8: And so you know days like today where you have

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Speaker 8: really strong arrange reports after the clothes you know from

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Speaker 8: the video kind of carrying the open higher and then

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Speaker 8: kind of with sawing back down. I think you are

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Speaker 8: kind of par for the course. Is we kind of

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Speaker 8: think through kind of how markets should behave from now

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Speaker 8: to the end of the year, just given you know,

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Speaker 8: certainly that still remains.

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Speaker 5: So when it comes to Nvidia, is this the ballance

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Speaker 5: that we are all hoping for? Like does that really

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Speaker 5: help unleash animal spirits or is that just confirmation and

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Speaker 5: everything's okay?

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Speaker 6: But that's harder for upside.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, for Navidia specifically, I think what's unusual about to

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Speaker 8: set up into the print was you know, this was

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Speaker 8: one of these times where the video was somewhat cheap

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Speaker 8: relative to expectations, and so it comes into the question

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Speaker 8: whether or not, you know, the buyside and salesite we're

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Speaker 8: mismatched in terms of where those expectations sat, and you know, just.

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Speaker 4: Kind of get into it a little bit deeper.

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Speaker 8: You know, back in April and the video traded south

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Speaker 8: of one hundred dollars a share, and if you believe

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Speaker 8: kind of the base case that a lot of cell

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Speaker 8: side shops are pitching you know, we're talking you know,

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Speaker 8: six dollars plus per share in counter your twenty twenty

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Speaker 8: six in terms of earnings per share. That makes na

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Speaker 8: Vidia sub s and P five hundred multiple name and

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Speaker 8: you know that's where kind of the stock was heading

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Speaker 8: into the print. Of course, it had kind of rebounded

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Speaker 8: with the rest of the market in April, but Navidia

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Speaker 8: had historically had always traded thirty five forty times forward

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Speaker 8: earnings and it was sub twenty and so you know,

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Speaker 8: this has just been a little bit of a sigh

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Speaker 8: relief if you're in the video shareholder that the growth

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Speaker 8: story is still intact and some of the concerns about

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Speaker 8: supply chains and being able to really ramp up you know,

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Speaker 8: rack scale black roll systems in the back half of

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Speaker 8: this year, it seemed to be in the rear view mayor.

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Speaker 2: So Matt does the Nvidia results last night a little

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Speaker 2: bit better than expected. That that give kind of a

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Speaker 2: green light for tech broadly defined here is that can

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Speaker 2: that can can tech continue to be a leader in

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Speaker 2: this market?

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Speaker 8: Well, if Navida doesn't work with in tech, what else

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Speaker 8: is really going to work with in tech?

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Speaker 4: So and it should.

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Speaker 8: Probably be a little bit a little more specific with

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Speaker 8: that within semic inductors level were just going to keep

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Speaker 8: it to that kind of industry. Look, how many companies

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Speaker 8: can you point to that have to sacrifice ten and

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Speaker 8: a half billion dollars for the pigh margin revenue over

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Speaker 8: two quarters in the form of base twenty revenue still

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Speaker 8: outperform the overall market on a year of date and

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Speaker 8: one year basis. There's not a whole lot of them,

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Speaker 8: And the video is the only one that I can

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Speaker 8: think of that's been able.

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Speaker 4: To clear that hurdle.

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Speaker 8: But you know, I think if we kind of also

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Speaker 8: think about the setup into the quarter, you're kind of

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Speaker 8: clearing some of the China uncertainly by just kind of

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Speaker 8: removing the revenue piece altogether for them specifically, That's not

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Speaker 8: the case for the rest of technology. There's still terror

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Speaker 8: related concerns for a lot of other names within tech.

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Speaker 8: Navidia is just kind of already kind of pass that,

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Speaker 8: and we'll probably have to see some others also pass

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Speaker 8: that into the future.

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Speaker 5: So we got this trade ruling and then we got

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Speaker 5: in Vidia. Does this clear the runway for the S

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Speaker 5: and P and now test again record highs or is

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Speaker 5: it too early to call that?

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Speaker 8: You know, I think it's too early to necessarily, you know,

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Speaker 8: believe that you know, the trade related and teriff related

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Speaker 8: fears are behind us. You know, while a lot of

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Speaker 8: the terriffs were rescinded via the quarter over last night,

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Speaker 8: the other avenues to restoring those tariff levels, whether we're

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Speaker 8: talking about Section two seventy two, which is still in

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Speaker 8: front of us, or some other of the authorities that

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Speaker 8: the President has to restore the tariff levels country by country.

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Speaker 8: So you know, that uncertainy from my perspective, still remains.

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Speaker 8: And and so you know, the runway from here, I

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Speaker 8: think is is really just a function of kind of

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Speaker 8: how the labor market holds in. We see sentiment data

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Speaker 8: really bounce around quite a bit, you know, with the

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Speaker 8: consumer with you know, the April second announcement kind of

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Speaker 8: really plunging consumer and business confidence, but then it's starting

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Speaker 8: to ramp back up a little bit during the Instagram period.

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Speaker 8: If we're looking at the April credit card data or

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Speaker 8: what we've seen from the Chase card data in the

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Speaker 8: weeks of May that you know, sour sentiment on the

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Speaker 8: consumer level hasn't really translated to changing spending behavior. In fact,

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Speaker 8: it's kind of been a little bit better than expected

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Speaker 8: and at least in line with trend level growth that

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Speaker 8: we saw earlier in this year. And so while consumers

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Speaker 8: are telling us that you know, they're they're anxious about

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Speaker 8: kind of the outlook, yeah, that isn't affecting their behavior

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Speaker 8: and that's that's ultimately what drives startings.

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Speaker 5: All right, good stuff. Really appreciate that you, right, Matt,

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Speaker 5: Matt Stuck you vice president, chief portfolio manager of Equities

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Speaker 5: at Northwestern a Mutual.

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