1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P and L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Changes 7 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 1: at the Federal Reserve a new chairman, Jerome Pale, taking 8 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: over from Janet Yellen, who chaired her final meeting yesterday 9 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: and on Tuesday. Here to help us understand the future 10 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: of the Federal Reserve is Robert Eisenbeis. Bob Eisenbis is 11 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: the vice chairman and chief monetary economist for Cumberland Advisers 12 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: and they're based in Sarasota, Florida. Bob, thank you very 13 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: much for being with us. As a former employee of 14 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: the Federal Serve at the Reserve Bank of Atlanta. What 15 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: can you tell us about the new FED in context 16 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: for a selection of vice chairman or vice chair and 17 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: who do you believe will fill that role? Well, the 18 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: organization issues right now are pretty challenged because of the 19 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: large number of vacancies and there are a number of 20 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: names being floated. Obviously, the one most recently mentioned as 21 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: John Williams, and John would be a very experienced and 22 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: well qualified economist. I think that's probably one of the 23 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 1: objectives that the administration has since UH new Chairman Paul 24 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: was not an economist, to have an economist as a 25 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 1: vice chairman would be essentially putting someone like that in 26 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,840 Speaker 1: a support of function. UM. The vice chairman role changes 27 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: quite a bit. It used to be historically that the 28 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: vice chairman was sort of the operating officer of the organization, 29 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: but that's changed as time has changed. UM. I think 30 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: the real challenge right now is to essentially deal with 31 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: the fact that, given the present structure of the board 32 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: and as chair Yelling leaves, the Reserve Banks actually will 33 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: have the dominant vote as far as policy is concerned, 34 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,120 Speaker 1: and I think that's going to be an interesting challenge 35 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: for new Chairman Powell. Bob, this is Taylor Riggs. I'm 36 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 1: filling in here for Lisa Bramwoods, who's out on assignment. 37 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 1: You you mentioned Janet Yellen, and you know, yesterday on 38 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio and TV we spoke with Alan Greenspan. He 39 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 1: of course would not comment on Janet Yellen's legacy as 40 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: you think about her legacy as the outgoing chair. Of course, 41 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: she was the first female chair of the Federal Reserve. 42 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: What else comes to mind when you think about her 43 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: legacy and her term. Well, I'm glad you asked that question, 44 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 1: because when you consider the State of the Union address 45 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: and all the claims that are being made as to 46 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: who gets credit for what's going on, I don't think 47 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: that either the previous administration or the current administration can 48 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,119 Speaker 1: claim credit for what's happened as far as the economy 49 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: is concerned. I think that is a tribute to Janet 50 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:25,720 Speaker 1: Yellen that she has helped guide the economy and policy. 51 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 1: When administrations and Congress are sitting on their hands, it's 52 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: really hard to point two specific initiatives that either administration 53 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: put in place that you can link to the overall 54 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: performance of the economy. Uh. I know Republicans will claim 55 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: the tax cut, but that's in the last month and 56 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: a half or thereabouts. That doesn't explain the past four 57 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: and five years of growth that the economy has had. 58 00:03:54,480 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: So I think UH, the position that Chairman Powell UH 59 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: has when it comes to the economy that he's inherited. 60 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: That's her legacy at this juncture. Okay, so you mentioned 61 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: j Powell. Let's go with that going forward. What's his 62 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: biggest headwind this year? What would be his biggest challenge? 63 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 1: Like you said, he's been given a decent economy here, right. 64 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 1: I think this is a case where uh, he wants 65 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: to practice the hippocratic growth do no harm. UH do 66 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: no harm in this case means don't rush Liz a 67 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: lot of rating increases. I think they're going to be 68 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: very cautious about what they do, partly because it was 69 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: mentioned in the leading to the whole program here is 70 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: the fact that with interest rates right now on the 71 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: fixed income side moving up, UH, that's essentially doing the 72 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 1: Fed's job for it. So the Fed looking out at 73 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: the markets and the interest rate environment, that's a situation 74 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: where rates are going up, and as a result, the 75 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: Fed doesn't need to essentially act to try to move 76 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: things in that direction. So they can afford to wait 77 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: and be cautious and see how things sort out. And 78 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 1: I think that's probably what he's going to have to 79 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 1: do and manage. And I think he's got a uh 80 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: an f MC right now that's in sync with that 81 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: kind of concern Bob Eyeson, Bis, if you're an institutional 82 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 1: investor and you have the option to buy or sell bonds, 83 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,679 Speaker 1: you don't have to hold them, perhaps like an insurance 84 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: company or a pension plan. Would you be suggesting that 85 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: the institutions sell their bond holdings or at least reduce them. Well, 86 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: I think what they want to do is you want 87 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: liquidity to be able to reinvest at higher rates, and 88 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 1: probably a barbell strategy is probably something that you can do. 89 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 1: I think the the biggest concern is to be sure 90 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 1: that you're being compensated for the maturity risk that you're 91 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: taking on and with a very flat Yeld curve. Uh, 92 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: there's a tendency to, particularly if you're dealing with clients, 93 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: to try to keep them from reaching for risk where 94 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: they're not being and reaching for rates where they're not 95 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: being compensated for either the maturity risk or in the 96 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:19,280 Speaker 1: case of corporate bonds and municipal bonds, where they're not 97 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 1: being compensated for the credit risk that they're taking. How 98 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 1: do you I measure That's the real challenge, Bob. How 99 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 1: do you imagine that? I mean, for example, I mean 100 00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: if you tell me all right, the duration risk on 101 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: a tenure at two seventy three. How do you actually 102 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 1: measure that duration risk that is in a way that 103 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: is meaningful to the investor. Well, I think you have 104 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: to use history in that particular case, and uh in 105 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: the case of the credits that I'm talking about, you 106 00:06:42,160 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: have to dig into the underlying cash flows us that 107 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: are being uh forwarded on those instruments and make that 108 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: judgment of bob juice. Finally, to wrap it up, you 109 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 1: talked about rising rates and the yield curve. The the 110 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: yield curve does look both the two tens and the 111 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: two thirties. You know, my question is is a flat 112 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: yield curve concern you or is this sort of normal 113 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: in this late stage business cycle. Well, we don't know 114 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: because we've never had this kind of the length of 115 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: a business cycle combined with h central bank activities that 116 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: have pumped so much liquidity in the marketplace. So we're 117 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: in unchartered waters when it comes to this situation. I 118 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 1: know a lot of people are concerned about a flat 119 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: eel curve and what that might mean in terms of 120 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: inversion and signaling recession and everything else. If you sort 121 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: of take a look back. However, what's happening in the 122 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: real economy. The real economy seems to be doing pretty 123 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: well and doesn't doesn't seem to be showing any signs 124 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: of recession risk at this juncture, at least so. And 125 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: it's not, in my view, a case where the markets 126 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: are going to cause that kind of problem. Abs it's 127 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: some unanticipated shock and we don't see that yet on 128 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: the horizon. But you just have to be cautious because 129 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: of this flat eel curve in terms of where you 130 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: position your your holdings now, shorter time is better than longer. 131 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,080 Speaker 1: Bob Eyes and Bis, thank you very much. Vice chairman 132 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: and chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisers. They're based in Sarasota, Florida. 133 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: Joining us here in our studio is Shira ov day 134 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: Are expert for all things technology. She's a Bloomberg gad 135 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: Flag columnist, and she's gonna tell us about what's she 136 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: gonna tell us about? Well, I've been dying to ask 137 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: this question, Sierra, So I'm so glad that you have 138 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: been able to join us. All about if Amazon is 139 00:08:57,559 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 1: getting too big? I know ahead of their earnings are 140 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: for it. I believe this might be the second report 141 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: where Whole Foods is now included. Earlier this week, we 142 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: all know that they talked about creating the healthcare company 143 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: with JP Morgan in Berkshire Hathaway. At what point is 144 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: Amazon getting too big that they start to draw eyeballs, 145 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 1: maybe from regulators or antitrust officials. I think that's happening 146 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: already at Amazon's current size. So one of the most 147 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: popular parlor games among academics and economists of the last 148 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: year is debating whether Amazon is currently a monopoly given 149 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 1: its market share in online shopping and its ability to 150 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 1: dictate that market and also to have a big hand 151 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: in a job creation or where jobs are created. Amazon 152 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: now has five hundred and forty thousand employees UM. That 153 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 1: jumped up a large number once Amazon acquired Whole Foods 154 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: towards the end of last year. And look, Amazon is 155 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: at the size like a lot of these tech giants 156 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: where they're attracting scrutiny from regulators all over the globe. 157 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: Talk to me about margins. Are we going to start 158 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: to see more investors more focused on margins? We know, 159 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: of course at this point they've been ignoring that in 160 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: lieu of gaining market share. At what point do we 161 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 1: need to start to be looking at margins? I don't know. 162 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: I think investors kind of go back and forth about 163 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: how much they care about Amazon's profit margins. Who who 164 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: knows what they feel like today. I guess we'll see 165 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: once the company reports. But look, the story of Amazon 166 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: almost since the beginning of its history has been they 167 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: take almost every dollar that they earn and they plow 168 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 1: it back into the business. And so far largely that 169 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: has been a good bet on the smarts of Jeff 170 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: Bezos to intelligently invest shareholders money. At some point they 171 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: may not believe that anymore. And you see some quarters 172 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: um investors are more nervous about Amazon spending than other quarters. 173 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: But that's definitely been the consistent strategy at Amazon. So 174 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: what do we need to pay attention to on the 175 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: earnings report today? Because you've got what prime customers. Everyone 176 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 1: looks to see whether there are more prime customers because 177 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,439 Speaker 1: of course they pay the subscription price. And then you've 178 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: got the expansion of that fulfillment by Amazon, and that 179 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,439 Speaker 1: some people say this could be a record corner for them. Yeah, 180 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's pretty clear from all of 181 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 1: the data that we've seen so far that the holidays 182 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:23,959 Speaker 1: were very, very good for Amazon, and the company continues 183 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 1: to um expand its market share and online shopping, and 184 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: that's a category that continues to grow quickly around the world. 185 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 1: I think what investors are looking for is, in addition 186 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: to revenue growth, what are they spending right back to 187 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 1: this kind of margin question, um and what are they 188 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 1: spending it on? Is it on fulfillment centers, on these 189 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,679 Speaker 1: package warehouses, is it on the video service, which I 190 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: think has been a little bit of a wobbly business 191 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: for Amazon. Is it on Amazon Web services, on their 192 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: advertising business? Of what they spend And I think there's 193 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of focus on the forecast for 194 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: this coming quarter because this is a year where in 195 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:04,840 Speaker 1: usters so far have been expecting Amazon to generate higher profits, uh, 196 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,320 Speaker 1: and so we'll start to see that reflected in the forecast. 197 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: I want to shift to the other a we're talking 198 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 1: about Apple. Of course, we've heard a lot this week 199 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 1: about production problems with the iPhone ten. Is it too 200 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: early to tell what's going on with the iPhone ten 201 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: or are we going to get some more details about that? Yeah, 202 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: I think it's been very interesting to see the changing 203 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: sentiment about iPhone sales just in the last few months. 204 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: There was a belief a few months ago that the 205 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: iPhone tin was going to be this blockbuster that was 206 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: going to a sharp, significantly increase the number of phones 207 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 1: Apple cells after a couple of either down or modestly 208 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: up years in unit sales. I don't think investors think 209 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: that largely anymore. That the iPhone ten story is less 210 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: about how many Apple cells and more about what price 211 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: is Apple getting from those phones. That's a thousand dollar 212 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,439 Speaker 1: en up phone, right, So that is inevitably going to 213 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: increase the average sale price for the company, and that's 214 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: good news for Apple. Although it we'll see the puts 215 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 1: and takes how quickly the revenue grows. Well, revenue, we 216 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: got what the estimate is for eight seven point three, 217 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: So let's say eight seven billion of revenue and net 218 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: income of nearly twenty billion for the company. What what's 219 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: the most important number, like, what would you think will 220 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: be traded on? I think the biggest, the biggest focus 221 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: of attention is going to be on the forecast for 222 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 1: the March quarter. UM. Apple gives a revenue forecast, so 223 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 1: investors will use that to extrapolate, Okay, how our iPhone 224 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: ten sales likely to go in the in the March quarter, 225 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 1: and what does that mean for the rest of the year. 226 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 1: You can extrapolate some assumptions about iPhone sales for the 227 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 1: rest of the year from the March forecast. And I 228 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of anxiety about Apple's potential revenue 229 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 1: growth this this fiscal year, and that March forecast is 230 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 1: going to be I think ultra important. Well. And they 231 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: also got to face competition because on February, guess what, 232 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: Samsung is going to launch its Galaxy S nine. So 233 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: that's a competitor to the Apple iPhone. You call it 234 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 1: the X of the ten. Apple calls it the ten um. 235 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 1: I have tended to call it the X mostly just 236 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: to thumb my nose at Apple hood. Yes, it's alright, 237 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: well done, Thanks very much. Here every day Bloomberg gad 238 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: Fly columns for all things technology. Here to tell us 239 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:39,240 Speaker 1: a little bit about what's going on in the world 240 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: of electronic payments is David Rittard. He is our Payments 241 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: and Specialty finance analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Shares of PayPal 242 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: they're down six percent the shares of eBay. They're up, David, 243 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: I know you can tell us why. Sure, Well, I 244 00:14:56,120 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: think that you have to keep PayPal in context of 245 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 1: how the stock has done. Um it had nearly doubled 246 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: in it was up another fifteen percent this year. And 247 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 1: you know, I've been saying for months you had the 248 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: fundamentals have been very strong, and and the trends continued 249 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter with very strong acceleration in account 250 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: growth and revenue growth. Again. Um, So, I think the 251 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 1: eBay loss is going to be manageable over time. It's 252 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: going to be staged out over the next several years. 253 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: I think the company could have done a better job 254 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: of telegraphing some of the impacts ahead of time. Um 255 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 1: but I think this is natural, and we're seeing the 256 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: stock rally actually quite a bit here in the last 257 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: hour already. David, it's Taylor Briggs here. I'm wondering, you know, 258 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: after eBay said that it will shift its payments business 259 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: to the Dutch company Audion from PayPal, why why, now, 260 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: I write, don't doesn't their partnership extend through Why did 261 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: they talk about this now? Yeah? I mean, I think 262 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:01,720 Speaker 1: we need to be clear on what it is they're 263 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: actually doing. So. They have an agreement with PayPal UM 264 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: that governed when the two companies split, a five year agreement, 265 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: and they're at the point now, at the halfway point 266 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: where um eBay is permitted to allow other companies to 267 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: be their primary payments processor, so paypals he didn't called 268 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: Braintree that does that function. So they're really only transitioning 269 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: their core processing. They're still going to be accepting PayPal. 270 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: I mean, they're not taking the PayPal button off the 271 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: eBay merchants. So that's important to bring up UM. So 272 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: this is something that's been in the works and a 273 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: possibility for some time. The other important thing to remember is, 274 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: on the other hand, the agreement also prohibited PayPal from 275 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: signing up certain marketplaces that eBay competes with, and they're 276 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: going to be free to do that in the next 277 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: couple of years as well. Hey David, and as you noted, 278 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 1: the stock of palers trading around seventies six sixty nine 279 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: on the open and then now we see it as 280 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 1: much as so yes to turn around, although the stock 281 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: is still down about five and a half dollars to share. 282 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: Can you tell us about master Card because they, along 283 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: with Visa, they are also considered this you know, electronic 284 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:26,120 Speaker 1: payments giant. Yeah, no, absolutely, I mean I think it's 285 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,760 Speaker 1: a sign of really very very strong global growth, not 286 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 1: just a US story, but globally. You know, you saw 287 00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 1: acceleration in payments growth in the fourth quarter and in 288 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: cross border payments, which is a really lucrative source of 289 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: revenue for them because they're translating currencies that they charge 290 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 1: and added fee for um. They're really cranking on all cylinders. 291 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 1: And the part partly it's the transition for in cash 292 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: and check globally to electronic payments, and obviously they are 293 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: a dominant central player, and there's certainly benefiting from a 294 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: shift of commerce to to mobile channels as well. Yeah, 295 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: David talked to me more about the outlook for this 296 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: continued shift to digital payments when it comes to master Card. 297 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 1: Is that helping with margin expansion given the high margins 298 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: there in the cross border sales. Yeah. I mean, you know, 299 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 1: the interesting thing about both Visa and master Card, by nature, 300 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: they're very very high operating margin businesses because when you 301 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 1: think about it, it's really a giant computer system and 302 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 1: communication system, so high fixed costs but the incremental cost 303 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 1: of each transaction is very very very low. So as 304 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:43,160 Speaker 1: transactions convert from cash and check over to electronic means 305 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: um that's pure profit. And so what it's to allow 306 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: both companies to do is to say, Okay, well we're 307 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,119 Speaker 1: going to take that natural margin benefit that we have 308 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: in our model and reinvest it in in digital initiatives 309 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: and in trying to grab other types of payment flows, 310 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: not just consumers pay businesses, but maybe government dispersing funds 311 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 1: to consumers, maybe businesses paying each other. And so you 312 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: saw a MasterCard by an a H company based in 313 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: the UK, and so they're looking to grab the substantial 314 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 1: portion of commerce that takes place on outside the traditional 315 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 1: consumer to business channel. So that's kind of their next 316 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: leg of growth. Well, thanks very much for enlightening us. 317 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: David Ritter is our Payments and Specialty finance analyst for 318 00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:46,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. Good morning, I'm Taylor Riggs. I'm filling in 319 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: for Lisa Abramaitz. She's out on assignment. We are talking 320 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 1: about artificial intelligence and it is set to further disrupt 321 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: the retail industry. Joining me now, Rona, he's here with 322 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 1: us in studio Senior analysts of software and I T 323 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: services of Bloomberg Intelligence and over the phone Punum Goyle, 324 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: senior US retail analysts also with Bloomberg Intelligence. You know, 325 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: my first question you two, is the retail industry has 326 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: already been facing some problems with disruption, with Amazon coming 327 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: in disrupting really the entire sector. You tube put together 328 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 1: this massive report that AI will will further disrupt. I 329 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: guess generally, is this a net positive or a net negative? 330 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: Honor Rug, why don't you take that one? So one 331 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,199 Speaker 1: of the biggest things that we talk about it is 332 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,199 Speaker 1: today you really don't need a lot of capital to 333 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: come up with new stores. Um. So we follow a 334 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 1: company called Shopify, where you can go out and launch 335 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: a store tailor you can launch any store tomorrow for 336 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 1: a month with enterprise capabilities of payments, shipping, a look 337 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 1: and feel off a very large retailer with very little capital. 338 00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: And every day or every year, I would say, we 339 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,040 Speaker 1: are seeing hundreds of thousands of these stores pop up 340 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 1: that are targeted to your mobile device, to your Facebook, 341 00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: to your Instagram, and that's how you're going to shop next. 342 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: I want to bring you in because I understand that 343 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: an UG attended the major retail convention and not too 344 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: long ago, and there was some technology that he was 345 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: able to access that told him something about himself that 346 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 1: he did not already know. Tell us about this experience. Um, 347 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: so the NR conference showcased much of this technology. I 348 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: mean think about, you know, going into a store and 349 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 1: picking up an item and then putting it back down, 350 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,120 Speaker 1: and then the retailer knows that you picked up this 351 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 1: item and you didn't purchase it, so why didn't you 352 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 1: purchase that? And not only provides intelligence on the product, 353 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 1: but also it helped identify you as a party interested 354 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: in that item. The other thing we saw was the 355 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: makeup app and I don't know if that's what anorag 356 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 1: was referencing. Yes, tell us about it and how did 357 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: he use it? Yeah, so I guess you know, you 358 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: walk up in front of a mirror or in front 359 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 1: of a screen, they look at your skin, they tell 360 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: you what you should do to improve your skin. Is 361 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 1: quite interesting. Um it's actually being used in Europe right now. 362 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: They are talking to clients in the US. But it's 363 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: about giving clients the right feedback. So it's about you. 364 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: It's about the personalization, the connection to you, and it's individualized, 365 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: so it's not one size fits all or one suggestion 366 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 1: fits all, which is really what you know AI aims 367 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: to fix. Um. Everyone is unique and everyone should have 368 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: a unique recommendation. Okay, So at the end of the day, 369 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 1: Alex is giving me fashion advice, right this when it 370 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: comes down to see, that's just a tool that's going 371 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: to help you shop a little bit better. But you 372 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: have technology moving at such a rapid pace. Um, we 373 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 1: saw transactions that would be done through your Facebook messenger. 374 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,800 Speaker 1: You could start buying things on a website and you 375 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: know that the data of that would go straight to 376 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 1: your messengers. You would use payment systems through that to 377 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: complete the purchase. You're bypassing a lot of legacy systems 378 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: through it. And as I said, you could be a 379 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: small mom and pop shop, you are now competing head 380 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 1: to head with very large established brands on all. Right, 381 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: let's say you're an investor. Right, let's be there and 382 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: say I want to get in on this. Who's making 383 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 1: the chips, who's making the actual technology that is making 384 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,199 Speaker 1: all this reality? So, believe it or not, on the 385 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,159 Speaker 1: tech side, it is still companies like Microsoft. Um, I 386 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 1: we heard that a lot of investors, a lot of 387 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 1: retailers are not working with Amazon because of obvious reasons. 388 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: So you have Google Cloud, you have Adobe, you have Microsoft, 389 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 1: you have IBM, you have SAP that's a very big 390 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 1: player and that. So on the tech side, it's pretty 391 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: much all the large giants we know and it's all software. 392 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,199 Speaker 1: It's all software driven, so no, no no chip players 393 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 1: in here. That it's pretty ordinary chips that Intel's there, 394 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 1: Samsung is there, so you would always have those companies 395 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,359 Speaker 1: that provide the infrastructure and the camera US and because 396 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: facial recognition is a big deal, so you have those 397 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: companies as well. Intel's big player obviously, but large portion 398 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: of the value edition comes from the software providers and 399 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 1: Punham who on the retail side has started to use this. 400 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,240 Speaker 1: So it's not a lot. Actually, American Eagle has constantly 401 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 1: talked about at the show where they've they're trying, testing 402 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 1: and implementing a lot of these technologies. But you know, 403 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 1: if you ask me today who's doing it, well, there 404 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: really isn't one brick and mortar retailer that I can 405 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: think of that's implementing and using AI in a way 406 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,440 Speaker 1: that someone else can replicate. Or would want to replicate 407 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: outside of Amazon. I mean, and that's sound brick and mortar. 408 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,640 Speaker 1: What about Wayfair, that's the the online retailer of furnishings. 409 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 1: I don't cover Wayfair, but Wafair has been making strides 410 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,159 Speaker 1: from what I know to implement this. Once again, not 411 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 1: a brick and mortar. Right, so you see the e 412 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: commerce players do a little bit more on AI and 413 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,879 Speaker 1: on technology to get ahead of the curve. It's the 414 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 1: brick and mortars that are really lagging and it's them 415 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 1: who have been suffering throughout the whole surge and technology. 416 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: All right, the well, thanks for and just quickly on 417 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: a rog what did the what did the app tell you? 418 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 1: For your face? A lot of lotions A not dead 419 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: in by any of them. I just but you didn't 420 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: make the purchase? No I didn't. That doesn't sound like 421 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: a successful transaction. All right, Thanks very much on a 422 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,399 Speaker 1: rag Grana He is our senior analyst of software and 423 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,880 Speaker 1: I T Services are Thanks also to Punam Goyal, Senior US, 424 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,640 Speaker 1: a retail analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Check out their latest report, 425 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence taking a look at artificial intelligence when it 426 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: comes to the retail industry. Thanks for listening to the 427 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen 428 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform 429 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. 430 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. 431 00:25:53,600 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio te