WEBVTT - Surveillance: Trump Virus Woes With Kudlow 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:12.640 Yea. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm Tom 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:15.680 Keene Jay Leie. We bring you insight from the best 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:21.240 in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:25.720 on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:29.080 on the Bloomberg for all audience worldwide Live HU, Bloomberg 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:31.040 TV and Radio. I'm very pleased to say that joining 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:34.199 us now, it's the National Economic Council's Director, Larry Caudlow 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.760 from the White House. Hello, Chi, Larry, Hi Jacks, and 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.920 thank you. Thank you for being with us first and 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:43.120 foremost our thoughts with the President and the first lady. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:44.760 If we can start there, and if you can update 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:46.680 us on the health of the President when you last 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:48.919 spoke to him, What he sounded like, what you're hearing now. 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:55.360 I spoke to him last evening. Um sounded fine. Um. 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:57.040 I didn't get to see him, but I did speak 0:00:57.080 --> 0:00:59.880 to him. I have not spoken to him this morning. Uh. 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:03.240 Chief Meadows has spoken to him several times. We're all 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:08.160 getting our assignments. Apparently it's a light version of the virus. 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:10.720 Let us pray that that is the case. Pray for 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:14.640 both President and the first lady Uh and my Paloe 0:01:14.720 --> 0:01:18.920 Picks and Ron and McDaniel for that matter. So we're okay. 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:22.840 I was tested this morning. Thankfully it was another negative test. 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.720 I've think I'm an eighty six or eighty seven straight 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:29.000 days something like that. And the business is functioning here 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:32.199 in the government, and we hope President gets well very soon. 0:01:33.600 --> 0:01:35.560 We share those hopes. Larry, if you can just describe 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:37.440 for us the symptoms with a little bit of details 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:38.959 so we can get a little bit more clarity. You 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:40.759 called it a light version of the virus. We've heard 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:44.399 it described as mild symptoms. What are the symptoms, Larry, 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:46.840 I'm just not in a position to tell you. John, 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:50.200 And as I said, I have not seen him, I've 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.920 not talked to Dr Connolly, so I'm not the guy 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:56.480 on on on that particular beat. I understand that. I 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:58.640 think somewhere you can help us though. It's the process. 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:00.880 What we're experiencing right now in the last twenty four 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:03.160 hours is probably the most high profile track and trace 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.760 process that's played out since the coronavirus started. When were 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:15.079 you contacted, Larry contacted about the President contacted about Hope 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.440 Hicks testing positive and that you would have to go 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:20.399 and get a test yourself. Well, I get one every 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:22.680 day as a matter of course. People that come in 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:24.960 and out of the Oval and are with the President. 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.480 There's a bunch of us that get tested every day. Um. 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:32.400 I heard about Hope last evening, and I heard about 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:35.480 the President well as soon as I woke up this morning. 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:38.760 What we've learned from the White House Chief of Staff 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:42.000 Mark Meadows is that the White House knew that Hope 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.880 Hicks had tested positive ahead of leaving for the New 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:47.800 Jersey fundraiser. And Larry, I think a lot of people 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.920 are asking questions as to why the presidents still went 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:54.360 to Bedminster, New Jersey when the White House was aware 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:56.720 that Hope Hicks had tested positive. Can you give us 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:59.760 any any clarity on that? Shine a lot? And why? Larry, 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:02.639 I'm not sure, John than I can. I mean, I 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:06.799 wasn't on Marine one. I didn't go on that particular trip. Um. 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.360 I think as soon as they realize what happened, Uh, 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:14.960 they took um certainly distancing measures. But look, I wasn't there. 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:18.880 I'm not the doctor. Uh, I'm here to talk about 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:22.160 the better than expected jobs report and what the economy 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.040 is doing well. I I can't help you on the 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.440 medical stuff. If I could, I would, but I just 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:29.760 I wasn't a participant to understand, wasn't there, Larry. I 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:32.120 don't expect you to talk about the medical stuff with 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.400 us today, but you have in the past voluntarily suggested 0:03:35.440 --> 0:03:38.040 to Americans how they should act and engage with each other. 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:40.520 And I just wonder for everyday Americans right now, what 0:03:40.600 --> 0:03:42.760 kind of message this sends. And you are representing the 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:46.280 administration at the moment, Larry, what do you think this sends. 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.240 It's a message to the public in America right now. Look, 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:54.600 we we continue to UM emphasize the protocols, that is 0:03:54.640 --> 0:04:00.440 to say, masking and distancing and testing we're applicable, and 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.840 good daily hygiene, washing your hands in your face, and 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:07.720 so forth. We have said this throughout the pandemic, and 0:04:07.760 --> 0:04:10.400 we will say it again, um And I think we 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:15.200 all are observing the protocols as best we can, especially 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:17.320 the distancing. But also look, when I go out of 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:19.640 the complex, I'm wearing a mask. I couldn't get into 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:22.120 a store if I didn't have a mask on, and 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:24.760 we're all very conscious of this. This is big. Listen, 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:27.960 this is terribly important stuff. I understand that, and lives 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:32.520 are at stake and it's difficult. But again, our protocols 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:37.800 have not changed. Masking, distancing, testing and and good hygiene. 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:40.359 That's the best you can do. We haven't proved on 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.760 the therapies. The doctors know a lot more than they did. Uh. 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.080 Dr Sean Connolly is the best of the business. The 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.520 White House Medical Unit is the best in the business. 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:52.400 The President is going to get absolutely first rate plus 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:55.640 treatment and as I said, we all pray for him 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.760 and the first lady. Why wasn't this protocols followed yesterday? 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:05.360 I don't know that they weren't. Well, it's quite clear 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:07.360 from the timeline that we've already discussed in the White 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:10.240 House Chief of Staff Marth Meadows basically confirmed they were. 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:13.719 If you'd learned before the trip that an aid to 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:17.279 the President, Hope Picks, had tested positive before leaving, and 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:21.080 you still left and then went to a fundraiser, they're 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:25.240 the protocols. They haven't been followed. Larry Jonathan, I just 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:27.400 can't speak to it. As I said, it wasn't there. 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:30.400 I have spoken to the Chief this morning answer some 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:34.000 other matters. We didn't go through that timeline. I'm sorry, 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.039 I just I just can't speak to it. I understand 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.000 it puts you in an awkward situation, but I think 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:40.880 at the moment, for the American people, they've had to 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.240 follow the guidelines, and it's pretty clear in the last 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:45.440 twenty four hours from what we've heard Larry, that it 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:48.520 doesn't sound like the President did so. For Americans at 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.800 work today, engaging with the workforce that may have been 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:55.360 exposed to coronavirus and might have to return work without 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.560 from work without pay and go and south isolate, how 0:05:58.560 --> 0:06:00.680 do you convince them that that's the right thing they 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:04.240 should do? And that's any can only question, Yes it 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:09.800 is now. Look again, we continue to emphasize the protocols. 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:13.440 As you and I have talked about this, UM. You know, 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.640 you see virus hotspots, for example, and we have mitigation 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:21.320 UH to control it. Fortunately, the trends look pretty good 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:27.440 right now. Hospitalization fatalities way down. Cases UH popped up 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:31.040 a little bit earlier in September. UM they're coming back down. 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.240 But all through this, to the best of my ability 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:38.039 and the best of everybody's ability, we have emphasized these protocols. 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:40.800 We must do this now. It can be done. It 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:44.480 does seem to work. Um, and we're open business. I 0:06:44.520 --> 0:06:46.960 guess we've got about eight percent of our business open. 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:51.080 And you know we are assisting medically and financially to 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:56.320 help people deal with COVID issues, you know, renovations if necessary. 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.240 We're testing. I think we're at a million tests per 0:06:59.360 --> 0:07:03.240 day now, with a capacity to do even better. But again, 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:08.440 proper masking, proper distancing, proper testing, and proper hygiene. That 0:07:08.560 --> 0:07:12.360 has been a staple of our response from day one. 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:15.960 But Larry, I'll ask the question again if you don't mind, 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.760 if the President hasn't followed your advice, why should an 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:23.600 American who doesn't get paid to go home go home 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.400 and south isolate if they've been exposed to coronavirus? Why 0:07:27.400 --> 0:07:31.720 should they do that? If the President didn't. My impression 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:36.760 here is that when the President tested positively, that's exactly 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:40.800 what he did. He went home. He's in effect quarantine 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:44.520 quarantine himself. We're working with the doctors. That's what he did. 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:48.080 I wasn't there at the events yet, understand that I 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:53.360 can't speak to my president. He's following these guidelines. He's 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:57.520 following the guidelines. The President has been talking about them. 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:02.760 I'm distancing different economic perspective. If we can Larry, I'm 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.280 at work. I know that if I've been in contact 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:08.760 with someone who's tested positive for COVID nineteen, I should 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:14.120 go home, immediately, get tested, wait fourteen days. I'm trying 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:17.000 to understand why the President didn't do those things. If 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:19.360 they are a minimum requirements in the workforce in America 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.280 right now, why wouldn't the President of the United States, 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:27.920 holding the highest office in America follow the same guidelines, Jonathan. 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:32.040 Best I can do is to say that as soon 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:35.960 as you know, he was tested as a precautionary measure 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:40.240 when the news came out about Miss Hicks, and he 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:44.320 did test positive, and he immediately did and followed the 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:47.720 very protocols that you are describing. He did it. That's 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.160 the best I can tell you. We can go through 0:08:50.160 --> 0:08:52.960 this a few more times, but that is my view. 0:08:53.040 --> 0:08:56.559 That is the information I have. He is following the protocols, 0:08:56.720 --> 0:09:00.160 and he acted very quickly. He's in the residence as 0:09:00.160 --> 0:09:03.280 he must be. We will see how long it's necessary 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:07.080 for him uh to quarantine. That's up to the doctors 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.319 and the President and the First Lady and so forth. 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.480 I can't get involved in that. And again, I wasn't 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:14.240 on a helicopter, wasn't on a trip yesterday. But as 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:17.360 soon as he found out he was tested, and as 0:09:17.360 --> 0:09:22.320 soon as he tested positive, he went in quarantine. Larry, 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:24.960 I'll only ask one more time, and I know it's unfortunate, 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:26.560 and I'm sorry to keep doing this. I really am. 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:28.520 We've built up a relationship over the years, so I'm 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:31.200 sorry to make this awkward. But that's not what happened. 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:34.440 According to the timeline, and according to White House Chief 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:38.679 of Staff Mark Meadows, you learn about the positive fo 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:42.520 pix still went on the trip, and then when you returned, 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:45.600 the President was tested and tested positive. And only then 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:48.240 did he announced that he would be quarantining. And also, 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:50.760 it wasn't disclosed to the general public that hoe Pix 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.480 had tested positive until we broke the story here at 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:56.880 Bloomberg and the President went on the television show with 0:09:56.920 --> 0:10:01.199 Sean Hannity on Fox News. That's the time line, And Larry, 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:02.839 I know it's sensitive, and I know it's puts you 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.959 in a really tough position. But for all of us, 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.200 for everyone operating in this economy right now, for people 0:10:09.720 --> 0:10:12.680 trying to work and trying to get paid. If they're 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:18.240 exposed to coronavirus, they have to go home. They don't 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:20.400 wait around and carry on with their normal life for 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:23.040 several hours time and then go and do a fundraiser 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:26.199 and then get a test and Larry, that's the distinction here, 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.040 that's the difference. And I think it is an economic question, 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:31.439 it's not just the political one, which is why I 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.760 need you to help me answer it. For everyday Americans 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.040 who can't afford to go home after being exposed to 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:43.480 the virus, what kind of a message does this center them? Look? 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:47.120 So we all stay safe as best we can, I 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:51.120 will repeat, we must follow the key protocols, asking and 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:55.320 distancing and testing and good hygiene. I can't give you 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.400 the chronology because it wasn't there, and I will leave 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:02.199 that to chiefs Staff Mark Meadows, who is an exceedingly 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:05.960 capable man, and he has a lot more information about it, 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.520 uh in real time than I do. I'm not the guy, 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:13.960 but I say, as we always that all all all 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:17.280 folks who might be listening to this or paying attention 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:21.160 to it, we want everybody to be well. We want 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.200 everyone to protect themselves. We want everyone to follow the 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:28.960 guidelines because these protocols have been proven to work, all right, 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.800 and that's a good thing. And right now our businesses 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:37.520 are getting back to reopening, so it does help the economy. 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:43.400 And right now we are uh strongly recommending, with many 0:11:43.440 --> 0:11:47.320 many experts in health scientists that the schools should reopen. 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:51.520 Um the odds suggest that those kids are the least 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.160 are the least vulnerable. Now again, I'm not the scientist, 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:59.280 but I think schools reopening as a parental question, it's 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.960 a child edge cation in psychology question. It is an 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.720 economic question. I agree with you to help the parents, 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:08.280 let's do it. Regarding the reopening of business, we have 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:13.239 found ways and means to reopen businesses and even restaurants 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:16.840 on a safe basis. And I would also say, um, 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:21.600 the economy is reflecting that improvement. So I would I 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.839 still feel that we're in a recovery period. It's a 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:28.520 v shape recovery. Today's numbers, when they're properly adjusted, we're 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.240 in line with consensus, and the unemployment rate has fallen 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.520 to seven point nine percent. We have blowout car sales 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:38.439 numbers last night or this morning that folks aren't talking about. 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.640 Another words, John Than I'm saying, we are moving in 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:45.200 the right direction, and we are succeeding in dealing with 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:49.439 the pandemic and with the economy, with the economy's recovery, 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.760 and that's an awfully good thing. And the President, when 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:54.880 he gets back on his feet, which I hope and 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.080 pray will be very soon, will continue to make his 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:02.440 case that lower tax and lower regulations and better trade 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.480 deals and energy independent will get us back to the 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:09.160 kind of prosperity where family incomes and real wages have 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.760 gone up for the first time in twenty years. It worked, 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.480 and so this pandemic protocols is part of our message. 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.439 I need just a little bit of a tangent there, Larry, 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:19.920 but I'll forgive you for it, and I share those 0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:21.880 hopes and prayers, and I hope the President the first 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:24.240 lady get better. You mentioned the vulnerable. I've been talking 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.120 about the vulnerable, the people that can't afford to go 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.199 home in Southeast today. Let's talk about them and how 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:30.840 the administration is trying to offer them. In the last 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.400 week or so, there has been some negotiations between Republicans 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.040 and Democrats, and on Wall Street has been difficult to 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.400 understand whether it's happy talk posturing le real negotiations. Do 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.079 you think they are real negotiations? Do you think we 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:44.160 can actually strike a deal in the coming week. Well, 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.560 I can't forecast that, Jovin'. That's a tough question. It's 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:50.319 the right question, but I can't forecast it. I can 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:53.640 tell you, as I said earlier, business is going on 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.280 in the White House. Secretary Manution is expecting to have 0:13:57.360 --> 0:14:01.640 discussions with Speaker Pelosi today. I spoke to Stephen very 0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.559 earlier this morning about a number of matters. Um, we're 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.720 still apart on our asks. Uh. There in our judgment 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.080 asking for a lot of extraneous things that have nothing 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:16.240 to do with COVID and the economy. Uh. The split 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:20.320 has narrowed somewhat, but it's still wide enough. And I 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.120 would just make this point there. As I've said before, 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:29.120 I don't believe our recovery is dependent on assistance package, 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:35.560 but but there are certain areas which would be enormously 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:41.120 helpful to it. The airlines need legislation for additional assistance. 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.760 They're in big trouble, and they're on the verge of 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.800 major layoffs, and we would like to prevent that all right, 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:51.400 to help the workforce. Secondly, we should be extending the 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:55.800 payroll Protection Plan for small businesses. Uh, there's actually a 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:58.680 hundred thirty semi billion of money that was unused. We 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.480 need legislation to put that back to work. I get 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:04.560 a million calls on this from CEOs of large and 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:08.120 small companies. We should help the schools. We've always had 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.680 a hundred billion, hundred five billion dollar asked to help 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:15.720 the schools reopen with respect to whatever, you know, renovations 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:19.200 and refurnishings and testing and equipment to do. We should 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:24.080 have a backup plan on legislation for unemployment assistance. All right, 0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.920 we've gone into our executive order. We've put out the 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:30.040 extra three hundred dollars. That's not gonna last forever. I 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:34.280 don't understand why our trends on the other side of 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:38.160 the aisle cannot agree to these five or six basic 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:42.800 issues that virtually everybody agrees with. Why you know we're 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:47.000 zero is not going to help? All right, A trillion 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.160 or a trillion five would be very helpful, and if 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:53.880 we need more later, we can come back later. But 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.960 you've got to have some sense of compromise here to 0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:03.400 help Americans who genuinely need help. This is not extraneous spending. 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.880 This is emergency relief spending. We have been pushing this 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.760 from day one, and these recent talks. Let's just get 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:13.880 it done. And other stuff that's out there more political 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:17.360 or ideological, fine, I respect that, but let's deal with 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:20.480 that in separate pieces of legislation at a different time. 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:28.240 Larry went on the next talks. As I said, Treasury 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:32.400 Secretary Manution told me earlier this morning he expects to 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:39.600 have significant conversations today today and the distance between the 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:41.440 two sides. You talked a lot about substance. Can we 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:43.320 just put numbers on that, just briefly if we can. 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.840 The House Democrats passed the bill two point two truly, 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:47.560 and you threw some numbers out there. I'm just wondering 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:49.720 what you've come up to. Second minute and said you've 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:51.680 come up what have you come up to? Now? Just 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:54.160 understand the distance between the two sides of the moment, 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:59.240 Larry right, fair enough. Secretary told this morning, um, and 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:04.720 I'll try to owed him his position. His that is, 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:08.440 the presidents in our administration's position is in the neighborhood 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.399 of one point five trillion dollars. I cannot speak for 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.520 Senator McConnell, the House Leader. They may have a different 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.560 point of view, but I will quote Secretary Manution. He 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.760 has said this publicly in the neighborhood of one and 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.199 a half trillion. So the spread the bid in the 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:28.200 offer has narrowed, but it's still pretty far apart. And again, 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:30.720 I just come back to this simple formula. I'm not 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:34.359 interested in so much in the aggregates. I'm interested in 0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:38.720 specific targeted programs that could help kids in school, help 0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:42.560 small businesses, help the airlines, and help the unemployed. We 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:46.119 had a nice drop in unemployment in the data coming 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:49.800 out this morning, but there's still too many people out there, 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.520 way too much hardship, and we want to help them 0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:56.880 as they transition. So why not just pass these few 0:17:57.160 --> 0:18:01.520 targeted essentials to keep America are going and get through 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.560 this difficult pandemic period. Why not? Larry, do you have 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:08.560 a deadline for these negotiations in mind? Is to a 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:10.359 cut off period for you ahead of the election or 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:13.600 can this just keep on going? No, I don't have 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.280 a deadline in mind. Again, I'm not speaking for the 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:21.760 Senate Republican Conference, but I don't think Mr Manutian, I 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:24.760 don't think Mr Meadows, and I don't think President Trump 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:28.000 has a deadline in mind. Look, President Trump himself has 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:31.280 said numerous times that he is willing to go further 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.880 then some people are in the Senate, So I think 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:38.080 that's always been a slightly encouraging position. I mean, we're 0:18:38.080 --> 0:18:41.160 willing to do business here, we are willing to do business. 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.000 Larry can I say thank you, and I apologize for 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.439 my persistence, but I think there's a really important issues, 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:50.239 the timeline problem devate itself with a little bit more 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:53.760 class in the counting days. As a former broadcast anchor, 0:18:54.640 --> 0:18:59.639 I understand the business and professional to professional. I salute you, 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:03.480 Larry Cablow, thank you very much, Send out best to 0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:05.280 the White House, win you to the President and the 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:12.440 first Lady. We all hope they have a speedy recovery. 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.560 It would be good, John now to fold in somebody 0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:19.359 prodigious in the mathematics and dynamics of this odd bond market, 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:23.159 with the American economy and with the sharks in Washington. 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:26.679 We can bring in Jeff Roisenberg, black Rock portfolio manager 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.080 of the Systematic Multi Strategy Fund. Jeff, great to have 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.760 you with us. Your response on the jobs market but 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:35.520 more importantly, perhaps a conversation that I know is dominating 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:37.280 things over a black rock at the moment. And the 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:41.080 fixed income team, what traceries aren't doing. They're not doing 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:44.080 a lot, Jeff. Why yeah, you know they're not doing 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:47.600 a lot on this morning. On on payrolls, you know, 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:49.360 just a comment on the payrolls. You know, the headline 0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:52.840 is a little bit below forecast, but it's a very 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:56.919 different labor market payroll report. You know, the span of 0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:00.800 uncertainty here is about two million jobs. Government was a 0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:03.600 little bit weaker if you look at private payrolls. That 0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:06.520 was pretty much on the screws. But to your second question, John, 0:20:06.520 --> 0:20:09.440 which is really the much more kind of salient conversation, 0:20:09.600 --> 0:20:12.879 is that you know, the rate market volatility is just 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:16.679 incredibly dampened, and and for good reason, and that is, 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:20.520 you know, the FED has ushered in a tremendous amount 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:26.480 of firepower to to basically support financial market stability in 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:31.080 the aftermath of the coronavirus shock in March and April, 0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:34.800 and now pivoting to a very clear message of a 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.160 long run right all the way out through the forecast 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.040 period of zero interest rates and moving Quewie into the 0:20:41.040 --> 0:20:45.200 accommodation mode. So you're seeing very very small moves now 0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:47.560 in the in the rate market, the very interesting futures 0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.040 at negative fifty. What is really good is to let 0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:53.920 Michael McKee have twelve seconds to actually read the pages 0:20:53.960 --> 0:20:57.960 of documents. This is a more informed Michael McKee. Well, 0:20:58.000 --> 0:20:59.560 I just want to pick up on something that Jeff 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:03.359 Jesse said about government losses. The total government job losses 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:06.480 two D sixteen thousand, and if you look at the 0:21:06.560 --> 0:21:10.359 underlying numbers, local government education down by two hundred and 0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:13.440 thirty one thousand. This was expected by a lot of analysts, 0:21:13.440 --> 0:21:15.800 and this is what's really depressed the numbers, and it's 0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:20.400 probably related to seasonal factors. In September, teachers and all 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:23.040 the workers at the schools, the custodians, the cooks, the 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:25.280 bus drivers all go back to work, but this time, 0:21:25.640 --> 0:21:28.040 because of virtual school, many of them did not the 0:21:28.080 --> 0:21:31.560 seasonal factors expected a bump, didn't get it, and so 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:34.560 push the number down below where it otherwise would be. 0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:38.640 So the number is the total number of job six 0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:42.360 hundred sixty one thousand lower than anticipated, but it may 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:45.119 not be real. As Jeff Rosenberg was just saying, messy 0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:48.119 report might always great to get the reality checks that 0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:51.000 you bring for us. Jeff Rosenberg, this is the last 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:55.199 employment report until the November three election. What is the 0:21:55.280 --> 0:21:58.600 narrative as you see it coming from this, Well, you 0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:00.639 know there's another thing just to folks for a second. 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:02.600 On the on the payroll report, you know, leisure and 0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:07.000 hospitality is up again quite significant and and it is 0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.680 a reminder. You know, Mike just talked about the schools 0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:12.679 and the teachers, and that's a that's a that's a 0:22:12.720 --> 0:22:15.680 negative dragon the report. The positive part is you are 0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:18.679 seeing the effects of reopening in this in this report. 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:22.119 So you're seeing strong figures there. You know, that's that's 0:22:22.119 --> 0:22:24.439 some good news. And it's a reminder that you know, 0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:28.840 we are moving through. There is a reopening. It's it 0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:30.919 fits and starts and and now I think when you 0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:34.919 when you consider today's headlines, it's really about a reminder. 0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.479 And we're seeing these reminders in many areas aspects right 0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:41.080 so here in New York City, schools are reopening, some 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:45.240 schools that reopened earlier I've already had to close down. 0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:48.480 And that we are dealing with the uncertainties of what 0:22:48.760 --> 0:22:51.600 you know, the potential of a second rave might look like. 0:22:51.680 --> 0:22:54.399 And I think that's really the kind of big picture 0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:57.720 story around you know, today's headlines, And it's really gonna 0:22:57.720 --> 0:23:03.359