1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: Yea. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm Tom 2 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: Keene Jay Leie. We bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 1: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course 5 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg for all audience worldwide Live HU, Bloomberg 6 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: TV and Radio. I'm very pleased to say that joining 7 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 1: us now, it's the National Economic Council's Director, Larry Caudlow 8 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: from the White House. Hello, Chi, Larry, Hi Jacks, and 9 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: thank you. Thank you for being with us first and 10 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: foremost our thoughts with the President and the first lady. 11 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: If we can start there, and if you can update 12 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: us on the health of the President when you last 13 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,919 Speaker 1: spoke to him, What he sounded like, what you're hearing now. 14 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: I spoke to him last evening. Um sounded fine. Um. 15 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: I didn't get to see him, but I did speak 16 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: to him. I have not spoken to him this morning. Uh. 17 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: Chief Meadows has spoken to him several times. We're all 18 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: getting our assignments. Apparently it's a light version of the virus. 19 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: Let us pray that that is the case. Pray for 20 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: both President and the first lady Uh and my Paloe 21 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: Picks and Ron and McDaniel for that matter. So we're okay. 22 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: I was tested this morning. Thankfully it was another negative test. 23 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 1: I've think I'm an eighty six or eighty seven straight 24 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: days something like that. And the business is functioning here 25 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,199 Speaker 1: in the government, and we hope President gets well very soon. 26 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: We share those hopes. Larry, if you can just describe 27 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: for us the symptoms with a little bit of details 28 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 1: so we can get a little bit more clarity. You 29 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 1: called it a light version of the virus. We've heard 30 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: it described as mild symptoms. What are the symptoms, Larry, 31 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: I'm just not in a position to tell you. John, 32 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: And as I said, I have not seen him, I've 33 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 1: not talked to Dr Connolly, so I'm not the guy 34 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: on on on that particular beat. I understand that. I 35 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: think somewhere you can help us though. It's the process. 36 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: What we're experiencing right now in the last twenty four 37 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: hours is probably the most high profile track and trace 38 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: process that's played out since the coronavirus started. When were 39 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 1: you contacted, Larry contacted about the President contacted about Hope 40 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: Hicks testing positive and that you would have to go 41 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,399 Speaker 1: and get a test yourself. Well, I get one every 42 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: day as a matter of course. People that come in 43 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 1: and out of the Oval and are with the President. 44 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: There's a bunch of us that get tested every day. Um. 45 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: I heard about Hope last evening, and I heard about 46 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: the President well as soon as I woke up this morning. 47 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: What we've learned from the White House Chief of Staff 48 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: Mark Meadows is that the White House knew that Hope 49 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: Hicks had tested positive ahead of leaving for the New 50 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: Jersey fundraiser. And Larry, I think a lot of people 51 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: are asking questions as to why the presidents still went 52 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: to Bedminster, New Jersey when the White House was aware 53 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 1: that Hope Hicks had tested positive. Can you give us 54 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: any any clarity on that? Shine a lot? And why? Larry, 55 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,639 Speaker 1: I'm not sure, John than I can. I mean, I 56 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 1: wasn't on Marine one. I didn't go on that particular trip. Um. 57 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 1: I think as soon as they realize what happened, Uh, 58 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: they took um certainly distancing measures. But look, I wasn't there. 59 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: I'm not the doctor. Uh, I'm here to talk about 60 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: the better than expected jobs report and what the economy 61 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: is doing well. I I can't help you on the 62 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: medical stuff. If I could, I would, but I just 63 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: I wasn't a participant to understand, wasn't there, Larry. I 64 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: don't expect you to talk about the medical stuff with 65 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: us today, but you have in the past voluntarily suggested 66 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: to Americans how they should act and engage with each other. 67 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: And I just wonder for everyday Americans right now, what 68 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: kind of message this sends. And you are representing the 69 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: administration at the moment, Larry, what do you think this sends. 70 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: It's a message to the public in America right now. Look, 71 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: we we continue to UM emphasize the protocols, that is 72 00:03:54,640 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 1: to say, masking and distancing and testing we're applicable, and 73 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: good daily hygiene, washing your hands in your face, and 74 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: so forth. We have said this throughout the pandemic, and 75 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: we will say it again, um And I think we 76 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: all are observing the protocols as best we can, especially 77 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: the distancing. But also look, when I go out of 78 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: the complex, I'm wearing a mask. I couldn't get into 79 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: a store if I didn't have a mask on, and 80 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: we're all very conscious of this. This is big. Listen, 81 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: this is terribly important stuff. I understand that, and lives 82 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: are at stake and it's difficult. But again, our protocols 83 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: have not changed. Masking, distancing, testing and and good hygiene. 84 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 1: That's the best you can do. We haven't proved on 85 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: the therapies. The doctors know a lot more than they did. Uh. 86 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: Dr Sean Connolly is the best of the business. The 87 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: White House Medical Unit is the best in the business. 88 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: The President is going to get absolutely first rate plus 89 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 1: treatment and as I said, we all pray for him 90 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: and the first lady. Why wasn't this protocols followed yesterday? 91 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: I don't know that they weren't. Well, it's quite clear 92 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: from the timeline that we've already discussed in the White 93 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: House Chief of Staff Marth Meadows basically confirmed they were. 94 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: If you'd learned before the trip that an aid to 95 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: the President, Hope Picks, had tested positive before leaving, and 96 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: you still left and then went to a fundraiser, they're 97 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 1: the protocols. They haven't been followed. Larry Jonathan, I just 98 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: can't speak to it. As I said, it wasn't there. 99 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: I have spoken to the Chief this morning answer some 100 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: other matters. We didn't go through that timeline. I'm sorry, 101 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: I just I just can't speak to it. I understand 102 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: it puts you in an awkward situation, but I think 103 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: at the moment, for the American people, they've had to 104 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 1: follow the guidelines, and it's pretty clear in the last 105 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: twenty four hours from what we've heard Larry, that it 106 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: doesn't sound like the President did so. For Americans at 107 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: work today, engaging with the workforce that may have been 108 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 1: exposed to coronavirus and might have to return work without 109 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: from work without pay and go and south isolate, how 110 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: do you convince them that that's the right thing they 111 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: should do? And that's any can only question, Yes it 112 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: is now. Look again, we continue to emphasize the protocols. 113 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: As you and I have talked about this, UM. You know, 114 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: you see virus hotspots, for example, and we have mitigation 115 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: UH to control it. Fortunately, the trends look pretty good 116 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: right now. Hospitalization fatalities way down. Cases UH popped up 117 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: a little bit earlier in September. UM they're coming back down. 118 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: But all through this, to the best of my ability 119 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:38,039 Speaker 1: and the best of everybody's ability, we have emphasized these protocols. 120 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 1: We must do this now. It can be done. It 121 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 1: does seem to work. Um, and we're open business. I 122 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: guess we've got about eight percent of our business open. 123 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: And you know we are assisting medically and financially to 124 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: help people deal with COVID issues, you know, renovations if necessary. 125 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: We're testing. I think we're at a million tests per 126 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: day now, with a capacity to do even better. But again, 127 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: proper masking, proper distancing, proper testing, and proper hygiene. That 128 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: has been a staple of our response from day one. 129 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: But Larry, I'll ask the question again if you don't mind, 130 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: if the President hasn't followed your advice, why should an 131 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 1: American who doesn't get paid to go home go home 132 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: and south isolate if they've been exposed to coronavirus? Why 133 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: should they do that? If the President didn't. My impression 134 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: here is that when the President tested positively, that's exactly 135 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: what he did. He went home. He's in effect quarantine 136 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: quarantine himself. We're working with the doctors. That's what he did. 137 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: I wasn't there at the events yet, understand that I 138 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: can't speak to my president. He's following these guidelines. He's 139 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: following the guidelines. The President has been talking about them. 140 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: I'm distancing different economic perspective. If we can Larry, I'm 141 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: at work. I know that if I've been in contact 142 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: with someone who's tested positive for COVID nineteen, I should 143 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:14,120 Speaker 1: go home, immediately, get tested, wait fourteen days. I'm trying 144 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: to understand why the President didn't do those things. If 145 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: they are a minimum requirements in the workforce in America 146 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 1: right now, why wouldn't the President of the United States, 147 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: holding the highest office in America follow the same guidelines, Jonathan. 148 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: Best I can do is to say that as soon 149 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: as you know, he was tested as a precautionary measure 150 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: when the news came out about Miss Hicks, and he 151 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 1: did test positive, and he immediately did and followed the 152 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: very protocols that you are describing. He did it. That's 153 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: the best I can tell you. We can go through 154 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: this a few more times, but that is my view. 155 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,559 Speaker 1: That is the information I have. He is following the protocols, 156 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 1: and he acted very quickly. He's in the residence as 157 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: he must be. We will see how long it's necessary 158 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: for him uh to quarantine. That's up to the doctors 159 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: and the President and the First Lady and so forth. 160 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: I can't get involved in that. And again, I wasn't 161 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: on a helicopter, wasn't on a trip yesterday. But as 162 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: soon as he found out he was tested, and as 163 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 1: soon as he tested positive, he went in quarantine. Larry, 164 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: I'll only ask one more time, and I know it's unfortunate, 165 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: and I'm sorry to keep doing this. I really am. 166 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: We've built up a relationship over the years, so I'm 167 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 1: sorry to make this awkward. But that's not what happened. 168 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 1: According to the timeline, and according to White House Chief 169 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 1: of Staff Mark Meadows, you learn about the positive fo 170 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: pix still went on the trip, and then when you returned, 171 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: the President was tested and tested positive. And only then 172 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: did he announced that he would be quarantining. And also, 173 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: it wasn't disclosed to the general public that hoe Pix 174 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: had tested positive until we broke the story here at 175 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and the President went on the television show with 176 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 1: Sean Hannity on Fox News. That's the time line, And Larry, 177 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:02,839 Speaker 1: I know it's sensitive, and I know it's puts you 178 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,959 Speaker 1: in a really tough position. But for all of us, 179 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 1: for everyone operating in this economy right now, for people 180 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,680 Speaker 1: trying to work and trying to get paid. If they're 181 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: exposed to coronavirus, they have to go home. They don't 182 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: wait around and carry on with their normal life for 183 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: several hours time and then go and do a fundraiser 184 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 1: and then get a test and Larry, that's the distinction here, 185 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: that's the difference. And I think it is an economic question, 186 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,439 Speaker 1: it's not just the political one, which is why I 187 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: need you to help me answer it. For everyday Americans 188 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: who can't afford to go home after being exposed to 189 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 1: the virus, what kind of a message does this center them? Look? 190 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: So we all stay safe as best we can, I 191 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: will repeat, we must follow the key protocols, asking and 192 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 1: distancing and testing and good hygiene. I can't give you 193 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: the chronology because it wasn't there, and I will leave 194 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:02,199 Speaker 1: that to chiefs Staff Mark Meadows, who is an exceedingly 195 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: capable man, and he has a lot more information about it, 196 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: uh in real time than I do. I'm not the guy, 197 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: but I say, as we always that all all all 198 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: folks who might be listening to this or paying attention 199 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: to it, we want everybody to be well. We want 200 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 1: everyone to protect themselves. We want everyone to follow the 201 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: guidelines because these protocols have been proven to work, all right, 202 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: and that's a good thing. And right now our businesses 203 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: are getting back to reopening, so it does help the economy. 204 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: And right now we are uh strongly recommending, with many 205 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 1: many experts in health scientists that the schools should reopen. 206 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: Um the odds suggest that those kids are the least 207 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: are the least vulnerable. Now again, I'm not the scientist, 208 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 1: but I think schools reopening as a parental question, it's 209 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: a child edge cation in psychology question. It is an 210 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 1: economic question. I agree with you to help the parents, 211 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: let's do it. Regarding the reopening of business, we have 212 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:13,239 Speaker 1: found ways and means to reopen businesses and even restaurants 213 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 1: on a safe basis. And I would also say, um, 214 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 1: the economy is reflecting that improvement. So I would I 215 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,839 Speaker 1: still feel that we're in a recovery period. It's a 216 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: v shape recovery. Today's numbers, when they're properly adjusted, we're 217 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: in line with consensus, and the unemployment rate has fallen 218 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: to seven point nine percent. We have blowout car sales 219 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: numbers last night or this morning that folks aren't talking about. 220 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: Another words, John Than I'm saying, we are moving in 221 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: the right direction, and we are succeeding in dealing with 222 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: the pandemic and with the economy, with the economy's recovery, 223 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 1: and that's an awfully good thing. And the President, when 224 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: he gets back on his feet, which I hope and 225 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: pray will be very soon, will continue to make his 226 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 1: case that lower tax and lower regulations and better trade 227 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: deals and energy independent will get us back to the 228 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: kind of prosperity where family incomes and real wages have 229 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 1: gone up for the first time in twenty years. It worked, 230 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 1: and so this pandemic protocols is part of our message. 231 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 1: I need just a little bit of a tangent there, Larry, 232 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: but I'll forgive you for it, and I share those 233 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 1: hopes and prayers, and I hope the President the first 234 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: lady get better. You mentioned the vulnerable. I've been talking 235 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: about the vulnerable, the people that can't afford to go 236 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 1: home in Southeast today. Let's talk about them and how 237 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: the administration is trying to offer them. In the last 238 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: week or so, there has been some negotiations between Republicans 239 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: and Democrats, and on Wall Street has been difficult to 240 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: understand whether it's happy talk posturing le real negotiations. Do 241 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 1: you think they are real negotiations? Do you think we 242 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 1: can actually strike a deal in the coming week. Well, 243 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: I can't forecast that, Jovin'. That's a tough question. It's 244 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 1: the right question, but I can't forecast it. I can 245 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: tell you, as I said earlier, business is going on 246 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: in the White House. Secretary Manution is expecting to have 247 00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: discussions with Speaker Pelosi today. I spoke to Stephen very 248 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 1: earlier this morning about a number of matters. Um, we're 249 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: still apart on our asks. Uh. There in our judgment 250 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 1: asking for a lot of extraneous things that have nothing 251 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: to do with COVID and the economy. Uh. The split 252 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: has narrowed somewhat, but it's still wide enough. And I 253 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: would just make this point there. As I've said before, 254 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: I don't believe our recovery is dependent on assistance package, 255 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: but but there are certain areas which would be enormously 256 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: helpful to it. The airlines need legislation for additional assistance. 257 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 1: They're in big trouble, and they're on the verge of 258 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: major layoffs, and we would like to prevent that all right, 259 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: to help the workforce. Secondly, we should be extending the 260 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 1: payroll Protection Plan for small businesses. Uh, there's actually a 261 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: hundred thirty semi billion of money that was unused. We 262 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: need legislation to put that back to work. I get 263 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: a million calls on this from CEOs of large and 264 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: small companies. We should help the schools. We've always had 265 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: a hundred billion, hundred five billion dollar asked to help 266 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: the schools reopen with respect to whatever, you know, renovations 267 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: and refurnishings and testing and equipment to do. We should 268 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: have a backup plan on legislation for unemployment assistance. All right, 269 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: we've gone into our executive order. We've put out the 270 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: extra three hundred dollars. That's not gonna last forever. I 271 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: don't understand why our trends on the other side of 272 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: the aisle cannot agree to these five or six basic 273 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: issues that virtually everybody agrees with. Why you know we're 274 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: zero is not going to help? All right, A trillion 275 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: or a trillion five would be very helpful, and if 276 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: we need more later, we can come back later. But 277 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: you've got to have some sense of compromise here to 278 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 1: help Americans who genuinely need help. This is not extraneous spending. 279 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: This is emergency relief spending. We have been pushing this 280 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: from day one, and these recent talks. Let's just get 281 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: it done. And other stuff that's out there more political 282 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: or ideological, fine, I respect that, but let's deal with 283 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 1: that in separate pieces of legislation at a different time. 284 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: Larry went on the next talks. As I said, Treasury 285 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: Secretary Manution told me earlier this morning he expects to 286 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: have significant conversations today today and the distance between the 287 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: two sides. You talked a lot about substance. Can we 288 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: just put numbers on that, just briefly if we can. 289 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,840 Speaker 1: The House Democrats passed the bill two point two truly, 290 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: and you threw some numbers out there. I'm just wondering 291 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: what you've come up to. Second minute and said you've 292 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: come up what have you come up to? Now? Just 293 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: understand the distance between the two sides of the moment, 294 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: Larry right, fair enough. Secretary told this morning, um, and 295 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 1: I'll try to owed him his position. His that is, 296 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 1: the presidents in our administration's position is in the neighborhood 297 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: of one point five trillion dollars. I cannot speak for 298 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: Senator McConnell, the House Leader. They may have a different 299 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: point of view, but I will quote Secretary Manution. He 300 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: has said this publicly in the neighborhood of one and 301 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 1: a half trillion. So the spread the bid in the 302 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: offer has narrowed, but it's still pretty far apart. And again, 303 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: I just come back to this simple formula. I'm not 304 00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 1: interested in so much in the aggregates. I'm interested in 305 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 1: specific targeted programs that could help kids in school, help 306 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: small businesses, help the airlines, and help the unemployed. We 307 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: had a nice drop in unemployment in the data coming 308 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: out this morning, but there's still too many people out there, 309 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: way too much hardship, and we want to help them 310 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: as they transition. So why not just pass these few 311 00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 1: targeted essentials to keep America are going and get through 312 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 1: this difficult pandemic period. Why not? Larry, do you have 313 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: a deadline for these negotiations in mind? Is to a 314 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 1: cut off period for you ahead of the election or 315 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: can this just keep on going? No, I don't have 316 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: a deadline in mind. Again, I'm not speaking for the 317 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: Senate Republican Conference, but I don't think Mr Manutian, I 318 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: don't think Mr Meadows, and I don't think President Trump 319 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: has a deadline in mind. Look, President Trump himself has 320 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 1: said numerous times that he is willing to go further 321 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 1: then some people are in the Senate, So I think 322 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: that's always been a slightly encouraging position. I mean, we're 323 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: willing to do business here, we are willing to do business. 324 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: Larry can I say thank you, and I apologize for 325 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 1: my persistence, but I think there's a really important issues, 326 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,239 Speaker 1: the timeline problem devate itself with a little bit more 327 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: class in the counting days. As a former broadcast anchor, 328 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: I understand the business and professional to professional. I salute you, 329 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: Larry Cablow, thank you very much, Send out best to 330 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: the White House, win you to the President and the 331 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: first Lady. We all hope they have a speedy recovery. 332 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: It would be good, John now to fold in somebody 333 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 1: prodigious in the mathematics and dynamics of this odd bond market, 334 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 1: with the American economy and with the sharks in Washington. 335 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: We can bring in Jeff Roisenberg, black Rock portfolio manager 336 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: of the Systematic Multi Strategy Fund. Jeff, great to have 337 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: you with us. Your response on the jobs market but 338 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: more importantly, perhaps a conversation that I know is dominating 339 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: things over a black rock at the moment. And the 340 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 1: fixed income team, what traceries aren't doing. They're not doing 341 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: a lot, Jeff. Why yeah, you know they're not doing 342 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: a lot on this morning. On on payrolls, you know, 343 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:49,360 Speaker 1: just a comment on the payrolls. You know, the headline 344 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: is a little bit below forecast, but it's a very 345 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,919 Speaker 1: different labor market payroll report. You know, the span of 346 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: uncertainty here is about two million jobs. Government was a 347 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: little bit weaker if you look at private payrolls. That 348 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 1: was pretty much on the screws. But to your second question, John, 349 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 1: which is really the much more kind of salient conversation, 350 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 1: is that you know, the rate market volatility is just 351 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 1: incredibly dampened, and and for good reason, and that is, 352 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: you know, the FED has ushered in a tremendous amount 353 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: of firepower to to basically support financial market stability in 354 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: the aftermath of the coronavirus shock in March and April, 355 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: and now pivoting to a very clear message of a 356 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 1: long run right all the way out through the forecast 357 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: period of zero interest rates and moving Quewie into the 358 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: accommodation mode. So you're seeing very very small moves now 359 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 1: in the in the rate market, the very interesting futures 360 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: at negative fifty. What is really good is to let 361 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 1: Michael McKee have twelve seconds to actually read the pages 362 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 1: of documents. This is a more informed Michael McKee. Well, 363 00:20:58,000 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 1: I just want to pick up on something that Jeff 364 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 1: Jesse said about government losses. The total government job losses 365 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 1: two D sixteen thousand, and if you look at the 366 00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 1: underlying numbers, local government education down by two hundred and 367 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 1: thirty one thousand. This was expected by a lot of analysts, 368 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: and this is what's really depressed the numbers, and it's 369 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 1: probably related to seasonal factors. In September, teachers and all 370 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: the workers at the schools, the custodians, the cooks, the 371 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: bus drivers all go back to work, but this time, 372 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 1: because of virtual school, many of them did not the 373 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: seasonal factors expected a bump, didn't get it, and so 374 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: push the number down below where it otherwise would be. 375 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 1: So the number is the total number of job six 376 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 1: hundred sixty one thousand lower than anticipated, but it may 377 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: not be real. As Jeff Rosenberg was just saying, messy 378 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 1: report might always great to get the reality checks that 379 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,000 Speaker 1: you bring for us. Jeff Rosenberg, this is the last 380 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 1: employment report until the November three election. What is the 381 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: narrative as you see it coming from this, Well, you 382 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: know there's another thing just to folks for a second. 383 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: On the on the payroll report, you know, leisure and 384 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: hospitality is up again quite significant and and it is 385 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 1: a reminder. You know, Mike just talked about the schools 386 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 1: and the teachers, and that's a that's a that's a 387 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: negative dragon the report. The positive part is you are 388 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,679 Speaker 1: seeing the effects of reopening in this in this report. 389 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 1: So you're seeing strong figures there. You know, that's that's 390 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: some good news. And it's a reminder that you know, 391 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:28,840 Speaker 1: we are moving through. There is a reopening. It's it 392 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,919 Speaker 1: fits and starts and and now I think when you 393 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,919 Speaker 1: when you consider today's headlines, it's really about a reminder. 394 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,479 Speaker 1: And we're seeing these reminders in many areas aspects right 395 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: so here in New York City, schools are reopening, some 396 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,240 Speaker 1: schools that reopened earlier I've already had to close down. 397 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: And that we are dealing with the uncertainties of what 398 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: you know, the potential of a second rave might look like. 399 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: And I think that's really the kind of big picture 400 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: story around you know, today's headlines, And it's really gonna 401 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 1: be how aggressive and necessary will any policy response in 402 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:07,239 Speaker 1: terms of shutdowns and constraints on the economy. B And 403 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: that's really weighing on here your financial markets. It's pushing 404 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,679 Speaker 1: up expectations for perhaps uh fiscal policy response that we 405 00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: know is is kind of stuck in Congress. Perhaps that 406 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: increases in its likelihood. And these are really going to 407 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,719 Speaker 1: be the themes that dominate the economic outlook and therefore 408 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,120 Speaker 1: also the market out all Right, So you were talking, 409 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: Jeff about the policy response potential shutdowns, but as we've seen, 410 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,880 Speaker 1: it's not necessarily an official shutdown that causes the economic ramifications. 411 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,239 Speaker 1: It's people being nervous that they're going to get the virus, right, 412 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 1: It's human behavior. It's the psychology of it. And I 413 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: gotta say this morning, coming in seeing the headlines, seeing 414 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 1: the most high profile track and trace you've ever seen 415 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: going on in the White House and throughout Washington, d C. 416 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,479 Speaker 1: You have to wonder what that does to psychology, how 417 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: much that puts a dampener on the US economic recovery. 418 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 1: Do you expect, given the diminished expectations for a fiscal response, 419 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: do you expect the U S economy to continue to 420 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 1: at least grow given all the headwinds that we currently see. Well, 421 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: I I do. It's about the second derivative of that 422 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: growth in terms of how much negative impact and drag 423 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 1: do you get. And you raise a really good point 424 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: that you don't have to have, you know, government mandate 425 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: and shutdowns to see the effect. Now, what's important about 426 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: that effect is that it hurts very specific segments of 427 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:29,399 Speaker 1: the economy. Right, So if it's people reacting to the fear, 428 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: that hurts restaurants, it hurts retail, it hurts leisure and hospitality, 429 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 1: you know the things I just mentioned that in September 430 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,200 Speaker 1: we're seeing some recovery. But if you don't have the 431 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: full born shutdown, you don't necessarily see that spill over 432 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 1: into manufacturing and into other parts of the economy that, 433 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: if allowed to can continue to practice as they implemented 434 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 1: safer measures social distancing that allowed manufacturing and an Arab 435 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,639 Speaker 1: pandemic to continue. Jeff Rozenberg with a FRO. As we 436 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 1: consider this Job's report, the Revisions future is really pretty 437 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: much unchanged off the shock in Washington. Are Michael McKee 438 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 1: with further insight. Michael, for the numbers here that Lisa 439 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,239 Speaker 1: was talking about earlier, and what you see is an 440 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: interesting number for construction workers only twenty six thousand. And 441 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,880 Speaker 1: we've seen such gains in housing, particularly in new home construction, 442 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: and it may be that we're finding a problem in 443 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: finding workers to do the jobs. Manufacturing jobs up sixty 444 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 1: six thousand. And you look at retail trade, interesting a 445 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 1: hundred two thousand jobs. That's significantly lower than the two 446 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 1: hundred and sixty one thousand last month, but it is 447 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: a lot of jobs. When people talk about the idea 448 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 1: of of maybe, um that we've we've lost a lot 449 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 1: of stores, Uh, you gotta wonder if if they maybe 450 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: you're still trying. Michael McKey, thank you so much. Jeff Rozenberg, 451 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 1: one more insight here before we get to this lead 452 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: story across this nation, and that is, can you explain 453 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: to me how banks may money in the Rosenberg nominal 454 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: yield space. I really haven't understand how they're going to 455 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: jump through that hoop. How are they gonna do it? Well, 456 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's still all about credit transformation. Right, 457 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: so borrowing at lower rates than they're earning on their loans. 458 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: And and despite the yield curve being exceptionally flat, banks 459 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 1: financing costs are still very very low UH supported by 460 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: government policy. And when you consider the charges in terms 461 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,879 Speaker 1: of credit and credit spread, that's that's really how banks 462 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: are are finding UH net income margin and so they 463 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 1: can find profitability there. This has been wonderful, Jeff Rosenberg, 464 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,639 Speaker 1: what an odd jobs day. Thank you so much for 465 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 1: helping us UH try to make some semblance of normality. 466 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 1: And always thank you to her. Michael McKee as well. 467 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 1: For someone who has practiced at humility in economics and 468 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: taking those skills to the World Bank is David Malpass. 469 00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: And we're thrilled at the World Bank President joins us 470 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,639 Speaker 1: this morning. There is an annual meeting, and yes it 471 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 1: will be affected by the President's illness. David melt Pass 472 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: of course working for President Trump before his president duties. 473 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 1: David Malpass, COVID is front and center for your World Bank, 474 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: different than the I m F, different than the World 475 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: Health Organization. I want to know what you've learned on 476 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 1: the efficacy of masks. Hi, Hi Tom, good morning. Well, 477 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 1: I think the masks are helping where in lots of 478 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 1: parts of the world. One thing we we did starting 479 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,919 Speaker 1: in April was to create programs where countries could choose 480 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,960 Speaker 1: the different protective equipment that they wanted to buy with 481 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 1: financing that we could provide. And so that's been a 482 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: very successful program because it gives the choice to the countries. UH. 483 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 1: And there's there's a variety of activities going on in 484 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 1: order to counter the response and what we've done, what 485 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: I did this week was announced the expansion of that program. 486 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,879 Speaker 1: My board is looking at it now to cover vaccines. 487 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 1: So a critical thing for countries is that they begin 488 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,120 Speaker 1: to to UH respond fully to the crisis and get 489 00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 1: people back into their livelihoods. That's that's critical because the 490 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 1: poverty rates are going up so fast, David. You know 491 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: across this nation there's cultural differences in the wearing of masks. 492 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 1: I know, David, at Colorado College, there's usage of masks 493 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 1: at all time. John Faroe mentions the variability of mass 494 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:35,639 Speaker 1: usage in the United Kingdom. Right now, India is front 495 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: and center. What does the World Bank learned about India's 496 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 1: protective abilities? Well, the COVID is a giant catastrophe, especially 497 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 1: for the poorest people. As as the the economy shut down, 498 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 1: people that were in the informal economy didn't really have 499 00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 1: the ability to buy uh protective equipment masks uh and 500 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: they didn't they didn't have an ability to have social 501 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:08,480 Speaker 1: distancing or space. So India's hit particularly hard. Uh and. 502 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: But but we what I observe is waves of waves 503 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: of infection in the developing world. So it's a very challenging, 504 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: very challenging environment. One of the problems is children are 505 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 1: out of school uh and. We think there are a 506 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 1: billion one billion children out of school, which and and 507 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 1: they they they have the problem that they move backward 508 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: and learning when they aren't going forward when they're not 509 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: in school. So we have sizeable programs to try to 510 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:44,479 Speaker 1: help make school safe uh and and begin allowing people 511 00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 1: back to school when the when when it's safe and 512 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 1: when they're ready wearing masks. David, you raised an incredible 513 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 1: point this idea of the the toll that this has 514 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 1: taken on the least advantage to both in the United States, 515 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 1: but frankly around the world. We've had Ken Rogoff, We've 516 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 1: had Muhammadalarian come out and talk about how they are 517 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 1: this emerging world is facing a debt crisis, a social crisis. 518 00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: How much oxygen is the drama in the developed world 519 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 1: with the US election, with the virus getting worse than 520 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 1: certain locations, take out of the room from getting aid 521 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 1: from some of these wealthier nations and getting it to 522 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 1: those that need it. You know that, I would say 523 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,480 Speaker 1: the wealthier nations have been generous, and one of the 524 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 1: challenges is using the aid that is available most as 525 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,720 Speaker 1: productively as possible. Countries need efficient systems to do to 526 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 1: do the distribution of the equipment. And also if vaccines 527 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 1: become available, that's actually a complicated process to actually vaccinate 528 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 1: a lot of people. So we're beginning that preparation uh phase, 529 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 1: or working with countries so that they will be ready 530 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 1: if there's a vaccine. But you're exactly right the inequality 531 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 1: of this extent, there's many aspects. One is a lot 532 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:03,760 Speaker 1: of developing countries relied heavily on remittances from workers that 533 00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: worked across the border somewhere else, and that flow has 534 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 1: slowed down. The biggest problem is their markets have have 535 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 1: severely declined. So for Africa, they were used to shipping 536 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 1: products to Europe. There's just not as much demand. The 537 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: good news I would say is uh is that economies 538 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,400 Speaker 1: in the advanced countries are are are showing recovery if 539 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,400 Speaker 1: you look at the quarter over quarter kind of data. Uh. 540 00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 1: And so that's a start and that will help the 541 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: developing countries a lot. I would say, there's generosity in 542 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 1: the world. The complication is COVID is a really bad uh, 543 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:48,240 Speaker 1: really bad virus, and so that's just hammering poor people. David, 544 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 1: how on board has China been with extending age the 545 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 1: developing world given that they've emerged as one of the 546 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 1: largest lenders to the e M complex. Several aspects of 547 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 1: that right at the putting aside where the source origin 548 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 1: of the virus uh in in April and May. They 549 00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 1: extended the helping hands somewhat to the developing world, so 550 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,640 Speaker 1: that's important. They had a manufacturing equipment for some of 551 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: the aid, so that's good. The US did that, Europe 552 00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 1: did that, and so I welcome that. Um. You're right 553 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 1: that China is has been one of the biggest lenders 554 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 1: to the developing world over the last maybe five years 555 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 1: or ten years. Uh, and so that's a real challenge 556 00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 1: because some of their it comes from a variety of 557 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 1: Chinese UH policy banks and commercial banks and government agencies. 558 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,720 Speaker 1: Some of them are still taking payments from the poorest countries. 559 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:51,160 Speaker 1: I in March UH suggested a moratorium for bilateral official 560 00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 1: creditors so that they would would stop taking payments. Crystallina Geogeva, 561 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 1: the head of the I m F and i UH 562 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: pushed that in the g twe he endorsed it, and 563 00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 1: many of the creditors have stopped taking payments from the 564 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: poorest countries. But unfortunately, UH commercial creditors are still taking 565 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 1: those payments. That means banks, hedge funds, asset managers, and 566 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 1: some of the Chinese a few of the Chinese agencies 567 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 1: are not fully participating, and they're some of the largest creditors. 568 00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 1: We're talking giant billions and billions in flows that are 569 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 1: still coming out of the poorest countries. David, We've got 570 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 1: to leave it there. We appreciate time this morning, so 571 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 1: come back soon. David Malpass there. The World Bank President. 572 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 1: Peter Hotest joins us from Baylor his work at Yale 573 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 1: University in particularly biochemistry at the Rockefeller University in New 574 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: York years ago. Peter Hotez, your thoughts on the first 575 00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 1: week of when anyone gets this terrible virus. Yeah, thanks Tom. 576 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 1: You know, I do worry about the President and his family. Uh. 577 00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 1: He does have a lot of risk factors that we 578 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 1: know about, both his age that everyone has mentioned, and 579 00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,760 Speaker 1: of course some of his underlying what we call comorbidity ease. 580 00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 1: I don't think we know anything about hypertension or diabetes, 581 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,520 Speaker 1: but his his weight is potentially a factor. We don't 582 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 1: really know why. There's one theory out there that there's 583 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,040 Speaker 1: a lot of virus receptors in adipose tissue, and that 584 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 1: would be an interesting possibility. So he is at high risk. 585 00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,440 Speaker 1: And uh, and I'm extremely worried about how he'll do 586 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: with this virus. And he's just somebody that he's going 587 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 1: to have to be monitored very closely. And I would 588 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 1: have a pretty low threshold of bring him to Walter 589 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,839 Speaker 1: Read if he starts heaving any decompensation. Well, you knew, Peter, 590 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,799 Speaker 1: that's right where I wanted to go. And I go back, 591 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,839 Speaker 1: Peter to a wonderful conversation, actually a very sad conversation 592 00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:51,840 Speaker 1: with Adam Bernheim of Mount Sinai, one of their acclaimed radiologists. 593 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,560 Speaker 1: And I'm going to say early March, which, as you say, 594 00:34:55,600 --> 00:35:00,680 Speaker 1: it is a tissue that becomes so damaging in this virus. 595 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 1: The President obviously having some of those symptoms. I should 596 00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 1: point out some people have said I'm in that class. 597 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:11,000 Speaker 1: Is well, what is the path to get to a hospital? 598 00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 1: What was Dr Conry looked for at the White House 599 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:20,399 Speaker 1: before he makes a decision to hospitalize any patient. Well, 600 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,800 Speaker 1: there's a There's a couple of things. One monitoring is oxygen, 601 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,839 Speaker 1: because we learned from that horrible epidemic in New York 602 00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,520 Speaker 1: in March and April that sometimes you can have pretty 603 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,879 Speaker 1: low oxygen levels in your blood even without a lot 604 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: of respiratory distress. And this is very interesting. So one 605 00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 1: of the reasons why you have respiratory distress with typical 606 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,839 Speaker 1: pneumonias is because you're retaining carbon dioxide, not because your 607 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: oxygen is low. But this virus sometimes you can not 608 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 1: retain carbon dioxide, but you still have low oxygen. So 609 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 1: you can have stunningly low oxygen levels even without having 610 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,400 Speaker 1: respiratory distress, and that may account for some of the 611 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,960 Speaker 1: sudden deaths we're seeing. So that's one thing to look for. 612 00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:02,560 Speaker 1: Another is, remember, this virus is not just a pulmonary virus, 613 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,560 Speaker 1: like we initially thought when it came out of Wuhan 614 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,480 Speaker 1: that it text attacks the vasculatures. So you're getting blood clots. 615 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:13,040 Speaker 1: For me, that meets pulmonary emboli strokes. Uh, it means 616 00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: heart attacks. And and this is why someone like the 617 00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,720 Speaker 1: President would really somebody really want to monitor very closely. 618 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 1: Is neurologic status. Uh So, as I say, you know, 619 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,359 Speaker 1: I think someone like this should probably have a low 620 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 1: threshold for for monitoring him in the hospital where you've 621 00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,399 Speaker 1: got all the bills and whistles and you can really 622 00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,359 Speaker 1: follow him a little bit closer with Monico. And I'm 623 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 1: sure his doctors will be doing a very good and 624 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 1: judicious job of that. I will say, bring you this 625 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 1: headline from the New York Times saying that President Trump's 626 00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 1: virus case so far is mild, simply cold like symptoms. 627 00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,760 Speaker 1: I know, however, doctor Hotez, that people will be watching 628 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,480 Speaker 1: him very closely. In the meantime, the track and trace 629 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,400 Speaker 1: game uh taking hold in Washington, d C. Fear pervading 630 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,439 Speaker 1: everyone who has been in contact with President Trump, which 631 00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 1: raises a question about contagiousness. When people are most contagious 632 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,879 Speaker 1: and the path of transmission. Can you give us any 633 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 1: insight of the latest knowledge there? Yeah, I mean, this 634 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 1: has been one of the real problems right for this 635 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,560 Speaker 1: virus is that it replicates in large amounts in the 636 00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:18,400 Speaker 1: upper airway, the mouth and nose, uh, and even in 637 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 1: people without symptoms. So there's some modeling studies coming out 638 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,520 Speaker 1: of Yale, out of Alice and Galvani's group showing that 639 00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 1: up to fift of transmission is occurring among asymptomatic individuals. 640 00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 1: And now there was a huge paper that just came 641 00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 1: out yesterday in Science magazine from the group in India 642 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 1: Robin and Laxman Ryan showing that forty year olds are 643 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:43,440 Speaker 1: contributing a huge amount of virus in part because they 644 00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 1: are without symptoms. So that kind of fits in with 645 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,719 Speaker 1: the Hope Hicks narrative a little bit. So this is 646 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:53,239 Speaker 1: something that this is why it's been so problematic. It's 647 00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,879 Speaker 1: really a nightmare virus in the sense that you've got 648 00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,439 Speaker 1: two groups of people, those falling very ill and going 649 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,160 Speaker 1: into h c u s and having long haul injury, 650 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 1: and those who are walking around the virus shedding a 651 00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,640 Speaker 1: lot of virus with no symptoms. And this is why 652 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,279 Speaker 1: it's been so vexing, uh and why we were in 653 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,440 Speaker 1: the middle of this awful, awful pandemic. Indeed, it is awful, 654 00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,799 Speaker 1: and we are getting a very fast moving swath of 655 00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,320 Speaker 1: headlines this morning, president of a former Vice President Biden 656 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,640 Speaker 1: coming out saying that he sends his thoughts to President 657 00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,360 Speaker 1: Trump as well as the first lady to recover and 658 00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,799 Speaker 1: step Minution also saying that he is an doesn't have 659 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,719 Speaker 1: to quarantine himself. There is a question as we move 660 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 1: forward also about the death rate, as we understand more 661 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: about the virus, as we understand more about how much 662 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,480 Speaker 1: the population may be infected, do we have a revised 663 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:45,480 Speaker 1: mortality rate. It's it's still looking pretty high giving the president, 664 00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:50,400 Speaker 1: given the President's condition and underlying comorbidities and age, But 665 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,680 Speaker 1: you know, it's we are a little further along in 666 00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:56,080 Speaker 1: this epidemic and then we were back in April and March, 667 00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,520 Speaker 1: and then has some vantages as well. We do have 668 00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,759 Speaker 1: a couple of new model clonal antibody therapies that are 669 00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,439 Speaker 1: still in the early stages, but now they've gone through 670 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 1: some early clinical testing for safety, and that's a possibility 671 00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,600 Speaker 1: to consider the regenera on monoclonal antibodies or the apseller 672 00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,520 Speaker 1: antibody these and then we you know, we have we 673 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:20,440 Speaker 1: have more eras in our quiver than we've had before, 674 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 1: of course with dexamethason and antiquagulant therapy, so there's there's 675 00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,880 Speaker 1: a lot we can do proactively. We're concerned about the 676 00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:29,120 Speaker 1: health of the president. Peter Hotel is one of the 677 00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,560 Speaker 1: great conundrums here as we look at this news and 678 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 1: I know you'll have a busy day in searching for 679 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,480 Speaker 1: that ye space vaccine we talked about last time. Is 680 00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:42,239 Speaker 1: the great leap of the young people getting the virus 681 00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,440 Speaker 1: and they're okay, and you know, with great respect from 682 00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,720 Speaker 1: miss Hicks or for any of the other people younger 683 00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,839 Speaker 1: and then somebody old for an example, me, someone not you, Peter, 684 00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,560 Speaker 1: someone old like me, someone would like the president, someone 685 00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:59,160 Speaker 1: would like the president gets it. And it's really serious. 686 00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:03,919 Speaker 1: Address us and speak now worldwide to younger people who 687 00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,960 Speaker 1: think they're immune to this virus. Yeah, this is a 688 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:12,920 Speaker 1: really important point, Tom. And remember even though most younger 689 00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,640 Speaker 1: people do well, we're still seeing lots of long haul 690 00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:21,680 Speaker 1: injuries and even deaths among young people, especially with certain groups. 691 00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 1: So for instance, the CDC came out with an important 692 00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:28,520 Speaker 1: document the summer. I testified at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus 693 00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:32,600 Speaker 1: this week because thirty five of the deaths among Hispanic 694 00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:36,160 Speaker 1: populations in the US occur under the age of sixty five, 695 00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,319 Speaker 1: for forty year olds, fifty year olds, sixty year old. 696 00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:41,480 Speaker 1: So this virus is robbing us of a lot of 697 00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:45,920 Speaker 1: mothers and fathers and brothers and sisters. So uh, that's 698 00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:49,640 Speaker 1: and that narrative has not really been will explain to people. 699 00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,480 Speaker 1: So that's another real important pater one final question, And 700 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,600 Speaker 1: I want to go back to David Baltimore and your 701 00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:58,680 Speaker 1: storied academics at Yale and at Rockefeller as well. Are 702 00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,480 Speaker 1: we trying to reinvent the real is really all this 703 00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,600 Speaker 1: is about is the medicine is frankly the same as 704 00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:08,319 Speaker 1: it was in the eighties and the early seventies of Baltimore, 705 00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,799 Speaker 1: and frankly the medicines remarkably same as it was in 706 00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:16,840 Speaker 1: nineteen I think we've moved beyond that, not as not 707 00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,840 Speaker 1: as fast as I'd like, because remember, the empty effective 708 00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,400 Speaker 1: market is as they call it in the farming industry, 709 00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:24,919 Speaker 1: has not been strong because it's not a big money 710 00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:27,880 Speaker 1: maker for the pharma company so it's not been prioritized 711 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,959 Speaker 1: like it has for you know, diseases where illnesses where 712 00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,560 Speaker 1: you have to take medicine every day. Uh So, the 713 00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,160 Speaker 1: anti effective is a short term treatment and therefore it's 714 00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,840 Speaker 1: not as lucrative for the big farma companies. But we 715 00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,920 Speaker 1: do have some verly exciting mono clone landa body therapies, 716 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,799 Speaker 1: we have some anti viral drugs. We could do much 717 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,000 Speaker 1: better at exploration in R and D and a number 718 00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,600 Speaker 1: of us have been saying, Okay, if we can't rely 719 00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,719 Speaker 1: on the big pharma companies to start doing the R 720 00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,120 Speaker 1: and D and produced these medicines, should we we be 721 00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:02,880 Speaker 1: looking elsewhere creatings on nonprofit biotex or we're gonna be 722 00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,960 Speaker 1: the key The key piece to this, Tom is we 723 00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:09,239 Speaker 1: need almostvation in the business model as we do in 724 00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,200 Speaker 1: the science. And when young people talk to me, they 725 00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,520 Speaker 1: say they want to go into infectious disease and global health. 726 00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,319 Speaker 1: What should I do? Dr Hotel is often very disappointed 727 00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:19,880 Speaker 1: when I tell them get a good m b a. 728 00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,399 Speaker 1: Or get a law degree, because we need as much 729 00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:26,759 Speaker 1: innovation in the raining astainable business model for these things 730 00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 1: as anything else. Peter Hotez, thank you so much, on 731 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,400 Speaker 1: this historic day for joining us. He is with Baylor 732 00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:36,280 Speaker 1: College of Medicine. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 733 00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:41,680 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 734 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:46,080 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 735 00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:50,040 Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 736 00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:51,600 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio