1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Right now, 5 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: we're going to attempt an intelligent conversation. I turned to 6 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 1: Mrs Keene at the ten o'clock hour last night and 7 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: I said, you know, I figure Wheeler will cancel is 8 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 1: Ohio State went down in flames? Tom Wheeler, your comment 9 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: on the spirit of college football in the time of 10 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: this national crisis. My comment is, go Buckeyes. Think about 11 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: what brought you there, not just the outcome, but it 12 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: was a tragedy lesson. He is a former FCC chairman, 13 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: and we're thrilled to Thomas Wheeler could join us this morning. Tom. 14 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: I don't like the phrase in net neutrality. It's Greek 15 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 1: to me um, But tell us what the net looks 16 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: like in two or three years. We are evolving each 17 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: and every day. With Fiorina and Wheeler on the same page, 18 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: what does our FCC world look like in five years? Well, 19 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: I think that what is important is we've got to 20 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: think about what the new world looks like. That, um, 21 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: that we have been trying to oversee, um the revolution 22 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: of the digital economy and digital technology using statutes and 23 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: regulatory structures that were created for the industrial era. And 24 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: we need a new approach that recognizes that the world 25 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 1: has changed, that things move much more quickly than they 26 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: did before, and so we can't have the old scarrot 27 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: approach to oversight. And and secondly that we're dealing with 28 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: a whole new class of assets, soft assets instead of 29 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: hard assets, and they behave differently in the marketplace. All Right, 30 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: So Tom, let's bring this to what happened over the 31 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 1: past week or so. We saw Twitter band President Trump 32 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,799 Speaker 1: from its platform, Facebook suspending him from There's raising a 33 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: question about big text rule in really determining the discourse 34 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: in the nation and frankly in the world. What is 35 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: the government's rule in dictating the guidelines for some of 36 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 1: these big tech companies. Well, I think Creli fi Arena 37 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 1: hit the nail on the head. And this is the 38 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,679 Speaker 1: basis for things that I've been writing saying saying that Look, um, 39 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: what's been going on is the technology companies have assumed 40 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: quasi governmental role. They are making the rules because our 41 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: representatives in government are not. And we even step up 42 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:05,359 Speaker 1: and figure out, um, as the people, what are the 43 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: rules that um that that should should exist. How do 44 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: we have competition instead of these monopolies. How do we 45 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: have expectations for responsible behavior rather than um, well, we'll 46 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: do whatever we want because it's profitable. But but but, Tom, 47 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: I mean, you talk about these concepts and there's very 48 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,160 Speaker 1: little agreement on exactly how to frame uh these issues. 49 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: We can't even get a stimulus effort pass, and we 50 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 1: have a jobless rate that's incredibly high. I mean, what 51 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: is your confidence level that there actually is some consensus 52 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: on these big philosophical concepts in Washington, d C. Lisa, 53 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 1: I think this goes back to our discussion of the 54 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: game last night. You know, I think you need to 55 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: have the willingness to get on the field and to 56 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: try and work it out rather than just running away 57 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: from it, and which is frankly what we've done for 58 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: too long. You know. One of the things that happened 59 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: is that is that policymakers have been sold. For the 60 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: last couple of decades, policy makers have been sold this 61 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: snake oil that that somehow digital is different and that 62 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 1: it's pretty close to magic, and if you do anything 63 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: to provide public interest oversight, you'll break that magic. That's 64 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: not the case, and we need to have policy makers 65 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: who understand and I think they are coming up to speed, 66 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:43,159 Speaker 1: who understand the realities of the digital economy, and they 67 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: are willing to step up. I mean, let's go back 68 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: in history for just a second. The regulatory structures that 69 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: we have in place right now, we're created to provide 70 00:04:54,480 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: balance in the industrial economy to the inherent incentive to 71 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: excess that was created at that point in time. We 72 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 1: need to have some kind of an offsetting, countervailing structure 73 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: created in the digital economy. But we can't rely on 74 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: the structures that were created for a hundred years ago, 75 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: because it's a new world. Tom Well, I want to 76 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: talk about your wonderful work in the Civil War, your 77 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: book Take Command on Leadership, and then you talk about 78 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,559 Speaker 1: taking the next hill. We've got to take the next 79 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: technology hill. Do you assume whatever that technology hill looks like, 80 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: and let's say I see Ohio regiments at Gettysburg, do 81 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: you just assume that's a breakup of these technology companies no, Tom, 82 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: I think that what you have to do, uh, you know, 83 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 1: another chapter in the book talks about you've got to 84 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 1: look at new techniques and new and have new thoughts 85 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: because because you know, I don't want to break up 86 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: Facebook and have half a dozen mini me facebooks, all 87 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: with the incentive to use their monopoly power over the 88 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: digital assets which they hold and won't share with anybody else. 89 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: I would rather see, let's have instead of break up, 90 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: let's break open access to those assets. Let me give 91 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: you one specific example. In ninety six, A T and 92 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:35,279 Speaker 1: T was forced to open access to its patents, which 93 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: was the greatest repository of of patents in the world. 94 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 1: And when that happened, innovation and competition took off. They 95 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 1: had been using those patents to thwart others from creating 96 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: competitive alternatives. And what we need to do is say, Okay, 97 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: these companies are now sitting on massive databases. We will 98 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: never be able to compete with them if they continue 99 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: to hoard those databases. You need to open the databases 100 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: for free. Not for free, but you need to provide 101 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: access to the essential essential for the digital economy to 102 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: right now. Controversial to say, at least Thomas Wheeler thinking 103 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: so much greatly appreciated. Stephen Whiting is with that Morrisett 104 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: City Group, City Group Private Bank, and he joins us 105 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: this morning. Stephen Whiting, do you readjust your two thousand 106 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,679 Speaker 1: one view with the two amult of the first twelve 107 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: days of this year? We don't not because of political 108 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: shocks like this. I think when we look back at history, 109 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: we can find twenty events all the way back and 110 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: including World War Two that really qualify as political or 111 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: geopolitical shocks. Only two of them really turned to direct 112 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: and of the world economy. And this is one that 113 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: I would doubt is going to turn the direction of 114 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 1: the world economy. And for all those that didn't, the 115 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 1: effects and financial markets weren't felt for more than ninety days. 116 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: Let's see, I want you to have common on ed 117 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: Morris and oil to sixty as well. You've got frontline 118 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: commodity work filtering in the City Group Private Bank. How 119 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: do you filter in the work of Edward Morris. Remarkably, 120 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: because it's across asset classes, it's powerful when we understand 121 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 1: what's going on in the oil market in particular more 122 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: than other commodities, but certainly in commodities like copper and 123 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: iron ore um. These might have directly relatively small shares 124 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: of economic activity, but the sensitivities to credit, the movements 125 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: and currencies, the read through the broader asset allocation, it's 126 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: been really powerful. So it's been a fantastic contributor to 127 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 1: to our work in terms of broader asset allocation, even 128 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: beyond commodities. So what you're saying is that you've either 129 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: flation trade. Is that what you're saying, Oh, I do 130 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: because I believe in a vaccine. Uh. And we see 131 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 1: already with just three producers, probably five billion vaccine doses 132 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 1: will be distributed over the course of one and that's 133 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:18,320 Speaker 1: not the end of the vaccine pipeline. Uh. And you 134 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,200 Speaker 1: can hear it from the Federal Reserve if you don't 135 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: want to believe me, that the course of the virus, 136 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: the pandemic, and the vaccines will really determine the course 137 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:31,199 Speaker 1: of the future economy. This has been uh in external 138 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: exogenous shock. We came into this event relatively healthy, with 139 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: low inflation rates, no booms in any industries, and this 140 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: virus knocked us down incredibly deeply. It's changed every asset 141 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: price in the world. And when it leaves, it will 142 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: change every asset price in the world. Uh. And there's 143 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: a lot of the economy that can still be restored 144 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 1: uh in later as it departs. All right, So in 145 00:09:57,480 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: the near term, how are you looking at the vACC 146 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: nations in order to determine your investing thesis? We were 147 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: speaking with Mark McCormick about how he's tracking which nations 148 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: are doing the best job of getting vaccines into our arms. 149 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: Are you doing the same to determine where the world 150 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: to invest? Well, it's no surprise, for example, that throughout 151 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 1: Asia the pervasiveness of the virus has been lowered. Maybe 152 00:10:20,640 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 1: it's the experience with stars for example, very very high 153 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: compliance with mast wearing right has had a different economic 154 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 1: impact there. Um. I just think that we are very 155 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: early on in terms of vaccination. I mean, it is 156 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: fairly miraculous that we have effective vaccines at the levels 157 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: that we are seeing. Right. Epidemiologists expected efficacy, you know, 158 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: a little bit closer to fluid vaccines, and here we 159 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: are with some of these well above nine. The rollout 160 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 1: may be slow, but I think this is a little 161 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: bit like sand than a sieve. Right, It'll move faster 162 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: as we as we go forward, right, So equipping about 163 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: a couple of months is not something that I'm going 164 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 1: to do with asset allocation. Steve whing been Layler over 165 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: Tower Hudson very courageously. He's been dead out on optimism 166 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 1: on the equity markets cost for three years of double 167 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: digit return he says, there's a not certitude, but a 168 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: likelihood of that you and I have lived in the 169 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 1: certitude of single digit returns. Is that where we finally 170 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:27,439 Speaker 1: are We look, we're not expecting returns as robust as 171 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: on headline, especially for US equities where we had a 172 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: lot of defensive equities in the technology sector. They provided 173 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: the solutions to the COVID economy. Their valuations were driven 174 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: up by falling interest rates, right, So it's more than 175 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: the durability of their earnings. But there's that invaluation. So 176 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 1: we're not expecting to be as strong as last year's 177 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,319 Speaker 1: return for US equities. But there's a lot around the 178 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: world right now where of our equity overweight is outside 179 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: the United States, where we've seen some pockets of the 180 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: world lag badly behind. Now when we think back to 181 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: two thousand nine, where conditions perfectly lost jobs, the entirety 182 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 1: of two thousand nine. That was a thirty five percent 183 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: game right for global equities in that year, less for 184 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 1: the United States, more for the rest of the world. 185 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:17,199 Speaker 1: People thought the expansion was over, that we priced in recovery. 186 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: It's now time, you know, the wait for the next crisis. 187 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 1: We then went on to ten years in which we 188 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: had a game in global equities games and nine out 189 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: of eleven years and what was the returning cash over 190 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: the time six percent annuals. Yeah, well, Steve, what's the 191 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: distinction of the city gro view on markets in one 192 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: given Then what you've laid out is very much or 193 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,719 Speaker 1: hearing from most people on the show. Well, I think 194 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: again it's discriminating between which assets will really move that 195 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:52,080 Speaker 1: there are these shorter term dislocations that are quite severe. 196 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: We've been overweight small cap US equities for a good 197 00:12:56,480 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: period of time in that has mean reverted pretty significantly. 198 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: Latin America, Southeast Asia, these are markets that have not 199 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: come back nearly as much. The fact that there's a 200 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: strong correlation between what you mentioned earlier um At morses 201 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 1: you on oil and financial stocks that sort of are 202 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 1: priced as if they are their businesses reflect the worst 203 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: of the credit conditions of the most impacted industries. These 204 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: are areas again that we'd be bullish on for a 205 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: practical revaient. Now, when we get all through with these distortions, 206 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna focus in on a different set of opportunities. 207 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: Some of these are really long term growth opportunities, like 208 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 1: the fact that we've only had a minimal amount of 209 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: shift in the world to uh to greener technologies, right 210 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:49,359 Speaker 1: electrification that you are thematic opportunities that are really incipient, 211 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: just the way e commerce was ten years ago. Stephen Whiting, UH, 212 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: just fascinating. Thank you so much. We're gonna have to 213 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: leave it there right now. With the death Stephen Whiting 214 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: of City Group, Private Think, Thank you so much. Julie 215 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 1: Norman with us right now, Lisa Brownwittson, Tom King, your 216 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: simulcast Professor Norman at the University College London. And you know, Professor, 217 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: we've done different things here, including the TikTok with Kevin 218 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: Surreali and the rest of it. I want to look 219 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:23,119 Speaker 1: forward with you, Professor, to the new grid Luck Democratic President, 220 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 1: Democratic Senate, Democratic House. Why are we even talking about Gridlock? Well, Tom, 221 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: I think there's always going to be a bit of 222 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 1: gridlock in Washington, but for Biden especially, Yes, he does 223 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: have a majority now in the Senate after the Georgia runoffs, 224 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: but that is an extremely when majority with the Senate 225 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: being fifty fifty and just having the vice president as 226 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: a tiebreaker and only a four seat majority in the House, 227 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: one of this limits in recent memory. So just because 228 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: of that, it's going to be tough to that legislation through, 229 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: especially in the Senate, where most meaningful legislation requires sixty votes, 230 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: not just the simple majority, and even more than that. 231 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: There's some uh surmising sometimes that having a closed House 232 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: and a close Senate increases opportunities for compromise and partisanship, 233 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: but in fact we sometimes see the opposite that in fact, 234 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: often the minority party is even less likely to compromise 235 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: in those situations because they don't want to give the 236 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: majority a win. If we somehow get beyond our national catastrophe, 237 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 1: how does a minority react to not owning either of 238 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: the three houses? What what do the Republicans do? Based 239 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: on histories? Take well, what we've seen historically is that 240 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: again whichever party is the minority, Republicans or Democrats, Republicans 241 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: in this case um which I instag me some of 242 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: that legislation that the majority party wants to put through. 243 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: For Joe Biden and for Democrats right now, the emphasis 244 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 1: will most likely see on further stimulus bills for the 245 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: Corona relief. We can expect that there will be some 246 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: opposition to that in the Senate, starting with opposition to 247 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: say the increase of two thousand dollar checks or increasing 248 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: some of the age to state and local governments. So 249 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 1: we'll see some kind of digging in and just trying 250 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: to create some variers of having that legislation go through smoothly. Julie. Meantime, 251 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: we're talking about impeachment yet again in Congress, even though 252 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: we have eight more days of President Trump's tenure. Is 253 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 1: this more of a damaging effect on Joe Biden's entry 254 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 1: into the presidency than it is help to the Democrats? 255 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: Well visa, I think that's a big question for Democrats 256 00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: right now. Certainly, Joe Biden has not thrown his weight 257 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: behind the impeachment for speedings. He's pretty much just said 258 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: all that Congress do what they decide. However, Providen definitely 259 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: wants to be able to hit the ground running. He 260 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: wants to be able to have his cabinet members and 261 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: especially his national security team confirmed right away. He wants 262 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: to get to work on the vaccination program and also 263 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: again on some of this relief and stimulus bills. And 264 00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 1: he really doesn't want the whole Senate ground to a 265 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 1: hold over an impeachment proceeding, especially one that is unlikely 266 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: to even get all the votes. Theory for a two 267 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 1: conviction to borrow Chump from the future office, and you know, 268 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,719 Speaker 1: something said to this also divide the country further, just 269 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:33,160 Speaker 1: deepen grievances and undermine Itiden pull messaging around unity and healing. 270 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 1: So I'm sure that's certainly on his mind too, although 271 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: his team is trying to spend it as more of 272 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: an opportunity than a than a deepening problem right now. 273 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 1: But it's going to be an upho battle for Biden regardless, 274 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 1: and an impeachment is going to make it even trickier 275 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: for him to navigate those waters. Yeah, I mean, I've 276 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 1: been I've been wondering, you know, what's the point at 277 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 1: a certain point, if it's not going to get through, 278 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: if they're not going to actually get Trump out of office, 279 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: he only has eight days left, why go through this exercise, 280 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: and some people have arguable for as this has international 281 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: ramifications in terms of edifying the United States view as 282 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: a democracy that's united, do you have any sympathy for 283 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: that view? Well, there certainly is the sense of what 284 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: this looks like to the rest of the world. Obviously, 285 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: the images from last week many saw as really hurting 286 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,399 Speaker 1: the global image of the US as a sort of 287 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: similar bastion of democracy. I think it's more important though 288 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: for internal messaging and optics to remote democrats, the sense 289 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 1: of saying to their own voters into the country more broadly, 290 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: that this kind of behavior, this kind of incitement, can't 291 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 1: be a precedent and essentially saying that this is that 292 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: the body would be without integrity if they didn't pursue 293 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: impeachment proceedings because of this. However, again, the pragmatics and 294 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 1: the practicalities around it do make this difficult. They know 295 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 1: that they can't remove from office and might be making 296 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,479 Speaker 1: things hard for Biden at the same time. One final question, 297 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: and we can do this with Julie Norman. She is 298 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: wonderful on the tensions of politics. Julie, this has been 299 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 1: under our radar because of the news flow and this 300 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 1: is the foreign policy exit of the Trump administration on 301 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: Cuba and particularly overnight on Yemen. This was a heated 302 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 1: report reported folks, heated exchange between legislative staff members and Mr. 303 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: Pompeo in his State department. Julie Norman explained to our 304 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: audience why these discussions on Yemen are so so heated 305 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 1: in Washington. There was the discussions around Yemen and Yemen 306 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: a country in the Middle East and the Gulf that 307 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: has really been stuffering from a quite severe civil war 308 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: for for years now. Pompey was preferring to declare one 309 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 1: of the groups, the Footie Group, a terrorist group. Laboring 310 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: any group a terrorist group has very significant rampiprocations in 311 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: terms of what kind of aid can go to the country, 312 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 1: in terms of what kind of political conversation can happen 313 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 1: with that group for peace processes and negotiations, and also 314 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: just start puts the US on a kind of very 315 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: different political expance on that conflict that they've already done on. 316 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: Do you assume that doesn't just because of time, Julie, 317 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: to complete the circle. Do you assume that President Biden 318 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: and his team can reverse that decision if they choose. 319 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: I do think they will try again. The team is 320 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:35,399 Speaker 1: pretty pragmatic. They're going to want to leave all options 321 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 1: open for negotiations and diplomacy, and the terrorism label inhibits 322 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: that rather than facilitate that. That's why we love Julie Norman. 323 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 1: I can take a tangent like that, and there she 324 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: is with expert views Julie Norman with u c L 325 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 1: right now on the economics of the moment. It is 326 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 1: always good to speak to Glenn Hubbard, Columbia professor of economics, 327 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 1: a former Airmen of the Council of Economic Advisors under 328 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,679 Speaker 1: President Bush, and I do want to part here that 329 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 1: with the late Edward Lizier were the giants of conservative growth. 330 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: The certitude that growth was good and incentivizing our private 331 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: economy was to way to get it. Uh don, Glenn, 332 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 1: I want you to speak for ed Lazier. What a loss. 333 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: But right now, Glenn Hubbard, there has to be an 334 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 1: optimism about a return to American growth. We have a 335 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:34,159 Speaker 1: rising debt, arising deficit from a natural natural disaster. Do 336 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: you suggest that we can see American growth out of 337 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: this terrible tragedy that we face. I think we can. 338 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 1: I mean Obviously, there's almost nothing good about COVID nineteen, 339 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: but the pace of innovation we're seeing is truly amazing, 340 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 1: and every business leader I think believes were well in 341 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: the interior of the productivity growth frontier. I think as 342 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: long as policy focuses on recovery and renewal and reform, 343 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 1: we're going to get there. And what was so distinctive here, 344 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 1: Glenn Hubard, with your work and also Dul's ears, as 345 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 1: you said, caffeinated enthusiasm, there has to be an American 346 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:16,439 Speaker 1: initiative that is different. Is that exceptionalism still there? I 347 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: think there is. You know, whether you're talking about public 348 00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: policy or private goals, the idea of a moonshot is important. 349 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: If you look at the pace of development of vaccines 350 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 1: for COVID nineteen, you see an example of what I'm 351 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,879 Speaker 1: talking about, and we can see that throughout the economy. 352 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: And I think a task for our new president will 353 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: be to try to make sure that that spirit is there, 354 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:42,679 Speaker 1: both publicly and privately. Glenn, how quickly can we return 355 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: back to normal? There are many questions even if people 356 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: get vaccinated, how long you get protected for? So we 357 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:54,159 Speaker 1: are we overthinking that? You know that once people get vaccinated, 358 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: we go back to normal economically. See, I'm not sure 359 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,200 Speaker 1: what normal will mean. We we do need to think 360 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: about this in phases. So we need to make sure 361 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: we have a vigorous recovery, get people back to work, 362 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 1: make sure we support people while things are locked down. 363 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 1: But then the economy is going to look different. People 364 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: may be in different jobs. If I were advising President Biden, 365 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: I would be focused on the possibility of something like 366 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,719 Speaker 1: a new g I bill. What's a way to retrain people, 367 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: get them going. I think that's the spirit we need. 368 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,360 Speaker 1: But retraining into what I mean when I talk about normal, 369 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 1: what's really thinking about Tom and I having a drink 370 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: of our choice? Okay, I think you would talk to 371 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 1: have the drink of your choice. But I'm saying the 372 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 1: mix of businesses and jobs in the economy last February 373 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: is going to look different than what it may be 374 00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: in the new economy, and we want to make sure 375 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 1: that people are ready for that. Drinks and all. How 376 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,160 Speaker 1: different Glenn, So, is it just what we were already 377 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,639 Speaker 1: going through so much more e commerce, much more technology 378 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:00,919 Speaker 1: driven being accelerated, or does COVID ring team put us 379 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,640 Speaker 1: on a different economy path. Why don't like we know yet, 380 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 1: But I think the acceleration is a big deal. A 381 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: lot of what happened during COVID was an acceleration of 382 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: trends like you mentioned with technology, e commerceince one, and 383 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,199 Speaker 1: that's just gonna go faster than people thought. So I 384 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: think we need to make sure that we have a 385 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: system for smaller midsized businesses that they can adapt, that 386 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,399 Speaker 1: we have an ability to help train people for the 387 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: jobs that will be instead of the jobs that were. 388 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,679 Speaker 1: But when you talk about a g I bill in 389 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,480 Speaker 1: the scope of that, I'm going to take a conservative 390 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 1: guy like you and throw you on the same page 391 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: with a great liberal economist, Claudia Son. Claudia is calling 392 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 1: for far more stimulus, and I think I'm hearing that 393 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: from you as well. But what is the distinction of 394 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: the application of the stimulus between conservatives and liberals. Well, 395 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,880 Speaker 1: I'm actually not talking about stimulus, although I do think 396 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: we need another recovery package. What I'm talking about is 397 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,320 Speaker 1: actually a longer term program. We needed something like what 398 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 1: I'm talking about before COVID, and we need it now. 399 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: It's a way to help train people. I'm thinking of 400 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 1: things like a block grant to interrupt. But look, we're 401 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: looking at the death of Reaganism right now, I would say, 402 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: within the uproar in Washington and all that, how do 403 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: you drag your Republican Party economists and politicians toward a 404 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: Hubbard view of bigger view of bigger programs? Ola Dwight D. Eisenhower. Well, 405 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,960 Speaker 1: I think of going back to Adam Smith, to be honest, Tom, 406 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: you know Smith and Columbia. Yeah, I mean Smith talked 407 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: about mass flourishing, and if you want mass flourishing, you 408 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 1: have to have everybody prepared to compete. So I view 409 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,919 Speaker 1: this as part of what a dynamic capitalist economy is. 410 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: It just we shouldn't get ourselves. It will cost money. 411 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: We need different budget priorities to pay for Glenn Hubbard 412 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: with us Columbia professor, and we're thrilled to come back. 413 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 1: I've got about eight ways to go with Professor Hubbard 414 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: here and these absolutely unique times. Thanks for listening to 415 00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance Piecast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 416 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:09,120 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 417 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can 418 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio