WEBVTT - Bill Browder

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome, Welcome, Welcome back to the Bob Left Said Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>My guest today is author, investor Russia expert Bill Browner. Bill,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you on the podcast. Agree to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you please explain what the Magnitsky Act is? So,

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<v Speaker 1>the Magnisky Act is a piece of legislation that was

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<v Speaker 1>passed in two thousand twelve. It's named after my lawyer,

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<v Speaker 1>Sergei Magnitsky. Serge was killed in a Russian prison in

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand nine after he exposed a massive government corruption

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<v Speaker 1>scheme and he testified against the officials involved, and in

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<v Speaker 1>in retaliation, they had arrested him, put him in jail,

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<v Speaker 1>tortured him for three or fifty eight days, and as

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<v Speaker 1>I mentioned, they killed him on November six nine. I

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<v Speaker 1>then went after the the Russian government and all of

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<v Speaker 1>their officials who were involved in his murder. And the

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<v Speaker 1>result of my efforts was this piece of legislation, which

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<v Speaker 1>was past four and Congress in the Senate and the

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<v Speaker 1>House of Representatives and signed into law on December four,

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and twelve by President Obama. Okay, now, are

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<v Speaker 1>there Magnetsky Acts in other countries around the world. Indeed,

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<v Speaker 1>after the US past the Magnetsky Act, Vladimir Putin went

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<v Speaker 1>out of his mind and he banned the adoption of

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<v Speaker 1>Russian orphans by American families. Um he made it his

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<v Speaker 1>single largest foreign policy priority to repeal the Magnetskay Act.

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<v Speaker 1>And it was clear that we had hit the Achilles

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<v Speaker 1>heel of the Putin regime. So I then went out

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<v Speaker 1>and tried to get it past in all other countries

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<v Speaker 1>that I could. And so there's Magnetskay Act in Canada,

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<v Speaker 1>there's one in Britain where I live. There's one in

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<v Speaker 1>the European Union. Twenty seven members of the EU have

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<v Speaker 1>Magnetsky Acts. When in Australia, one in Norway, one in Montenegro,

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<v Speaker 1>when in Kosovo. We even have it in the all

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<v Speaker 1>the British off overseas and offshore territories like the British

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<v Speaker 1>Virsion Islands and the Cayman Islands and Jersey and Gibraltar,

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<v Speaker 1>which may sound insignificant, but that's where a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the a lot of the bad guys stash their loot.

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<v Speaker 1>As a practical matter, hottest Magnitsky Act work. Well, what

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<v Speaker 1>happens is if somebody has done uh torture, murder like

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<v Speaker 1>the what they've done to Serge magnitsky Um and the government,

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<v Speaker 1>you can prove it to the government to a high

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<v Speaker 1>standard of evidence, then they put that person on the

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<v Speaker 1>Magnitsky List, and the Magniski Act will then freeze their assets,

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<v Speaker 1>banned their visas, and publicly name their names. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>quite devastating because anybody who gets put on the Magnisky

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<v Speaker 1>List effectively can't open a bank account anywhere in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're on the U. S. Sanctions list, nobody wants

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<v Speaker 1>to mess with you, as government makes it almost impossible

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<v Speaker 1>for these people to get visas anymore. And in my mind,

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<v Speaker 1>probably the best part about the whole thing is that

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<v Speaker 1>all these regimes eventually crumble at one point or another,

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<v Speaker 1>and all these people then can't go and flee to

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<v Speaker 1>a civilized country when Russia gets taken over by the

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<v Speaker 1>next guy, because all the civilized countries are gonna say,

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<v Speaker 1>wait a second, you're on the Magniscy list, you're a

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<v Speaker 1>human rights biler. We don't want you. So how often

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<v Speaker 1>is someone on the list where it's just the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that it exists a disincentive to try to go to

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<v Speaker 1>another country. Well, I think that that it's it's a

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<v Speaker 1>disincentive the moment that they get put on the list

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<v Speaker 1>to try to go to another country because they know

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<v Speaker 1>that they won't be welcomed. I mean, there's another interesting

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<v Speaker 1>angle to the whole thing, which is that if somebody

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<v Speaker 1>is put on the Magniscy list, there's probably a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>other people who are terrified that they're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>put on the Magniscy List. And so it creates almost

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<v Speaker 1>like a reign of terror on all these bad guys

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<v Speaker 1>in these dictatorships because they're all worried abou this is

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen to them. Now, how much let's just

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<v Speaker 1>call the illegal Russian assets are in the US? Can

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<v Speaker 1>that be quantified? Can that be reached in light of

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<v Speaker 1>the war going on in Ukraine? Should the US government

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<v Speaker 1>attach and seize those assets? Well, the answer is absolutely yes. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the US government is trying. It's um, it's a tough

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<v Speaker 1>it's a tough tough thing for them to do because

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians who have m accumulated all these assets, has

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<v Speaker 1>spent years, if not decades, preparing for this moment. So

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<v Speaker 1>all these assets are held in the names of shell

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<v Speaker 1>companies and trust companies and shell companies owning trust companies,

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<v Speaker 1>and then trust companies looking after nominee arrangements and so

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<v Speaker 1>on and and so forth. And so there's a whole layer

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<v Speaker 1>and layer and layer of stuff that needs to be

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<v Speaker 1>gone through. And so I think we're just getting started

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<v Speaker 1>in this whole process right now. But that' the objective

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<v Speaker 1>is to is to freeze the assets and seize the

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<v Speaker 1>assets of these oligarchs and people close to Laderma and Putin,

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<v Speaker 1>and they have a lot of assets. These people are

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<v Speaker 1>extremely rich. The kleptocracy was really revealed to the general

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<v Speaker 1>person in ten with all the graft and other expenses

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<v Speaker 1>with the socio Olympics. So what don't we know Putin

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<v Speaker 1>took power, he has a dominimous salary, yet he's considered

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<v Speaker 1>to be the wealthiest person in the world. Explain how

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<v Speaker 1>this works, how he and his cronies get the money,

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<v Speaker 1>how he distributed to the understandings that it's his money,

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<v Speaker 1>even though in name it may not be. So. The

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<v Speaker 1>way it works is this. When you go into government

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<v Speaker 1>in Russia, um, nobody does it to serve the public.

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<v Speaker 1>If you if you're an American and you go into government,

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<v Speaker 1>you want to do it to serve the people. In Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>the only reason a person goes into government is to

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<v Speaker 1>steal money. Um And the more the higher you are

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<v Speaker 1>in the government, the more money you can steal. And

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<v Speaker 1>the person who gets to steal the most money is

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<v Speaker 1>the most powerful person, which is the President of Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>And so over a long period of time, Vladimir Putin

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<v Speaker 1>has stolen an enormous amount of money. I estimate these

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<v Speaker 1>worth well north of two billion dollars personally. And if

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<v Speaker 1>we had to quantify the amount of money that's been

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<v Speaker 1>stolen in his twenty two years in power, he and

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<v Speaker 1>all the people around him, the thousand or so other

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<v Speaker 1>people who are involved in this thing, I would estimate

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<v Speaker 1>they've stolen a trillion dollars a thousand billion dollars from

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian state, from the Russian people. That's money that

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<v Speaker 1>should have gone to how build hospitals and schools and

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<v Speaker 1>phil potholes in the road, but instead it's gone to

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<v Speaker 1>uh pay for villas and yachts and Swiss bank accounts

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<v Speaker 1>and private jets. And and that's really the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>tragedy of the whole thing, is that it's the definitely

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<v Speaker 1>lots of victims of this crime, which are the people

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<v Speaker 1>of Russia. Now we hear that these oligarchs who are

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<v Speaker 1>named in the papers and other news media are really

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<v Speaker 1>holding Putent money and trust it's really not their money,

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<v Speaker 1>or most of it is not. Is that true? That's

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<v Speaker 1>exactly right. And so the way it works is that

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<v Speaker 1>there's no such thing as an independently wealthy person in Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>Anybody who's wealthy is dependently wealthy, and they're dependent on

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin and so um there. Their their whole arrangement

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<v Speaker 1>with him is that he allows them to keep some

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<v Speaker 1>of the money that they have stolen from wherever as

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<v Speaker 1>long as they give him a cut. And I I

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<v Speaker 1>estimate that he's a fifty shareholder and all this stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>So when you see an oligarch who's worth billion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>on paper, the reality is that he's only worth ten

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<v Speaker 1>because the other ten belongs to Vladimir Putin. And and

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<v Speaker 1>that's how the whole system works, is that these oligarchs,

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<v Speaker 1>when you when you see them all out there and

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<v Speaker 1>you want to go after Putin's money, you go after

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<v Speaker 1>the oligarch's money. So drilled down a little bit deeper.

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<v Speaker 1>Exactly how do they steal the money? Well, do we

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<v Speaker 1>have about twelve hours, because I can tell you twelve

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<v Speaker 1>hours worth of ways in which they steal the money.

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<v Speaker 1>But let me give you a couple of good examples.

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<v Speaker 1>There's the example of what Sergei Magniski discovered and what

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<v Speaker 1>he was killed over. My company paid two million dollars

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<v Speaker 1>of taxes to the Russian government and we were then

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<v Speaker 1>my offices were then rated by the police, who then

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<v Speaker 1>seized all of our corporate documents and those documents were

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<v Speaker 1>then used to fraudulently reregister my companies that have paid

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<v Speaker 1>the taxes. And then they went and applied for a

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<v Speaker 1>illegal to thirty million dollar tax refund and it was

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<v Speaker 1>approved by the tax authorities overnight and paid out the

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<v Speaker 1>next day, and it was the largest tax refund in

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<v Speaker 1>the history of Russia. UH. As one example, so you

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<v Speaker 1>know complex scheme, and it's it's actually ten times more

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<v Speaker 1>complicated than I've just explained it. Um. But that's one way.

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<v Speaker 1>And then I mean I could give you so for

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<v Speaker 1>example another one. UH they build a pipeline, an oil

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<v Speaker 1>pipeline from Russia to Turkey. Normally, if you go out

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<v Speaker 1>to a contractor and say how much does it cost

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<v Speaker 1>to build a pipeline? That contractor will say a million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars per kilometer, and of course the contractor is probably

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<v Speaker 1>even giving you a high price so they can make

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<v Speaker 1>a big margin. And then you look on the on

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<v Speaker 1>the balance sheet of gas prom and they've spent ten

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars per kilometer to build a pipeline, so they

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<v Speaker 1>spent ten times the real the cost to the contractor

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<v Speaker 1>um so nine million dollars per kilometer then goes as

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<v Speaker 1>kickbacks to the people who organized the construction project for

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<v Speaker 1>State Gas company. How do you get in on the action?

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<v Speaker 1>The only way you can get in on the action

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<v Speaker 1>is to be part of the criminal enterprise. And so

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<v Speaker 1>it's like, how do you become a member of the

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<v Speaker 1>New York mafia. You know, you have to be a

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<v Speaker 1>made man. There's some special ways that people have become

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<v Speaker 1>made men there, but the main ways you you work

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<v Speaker 1>in government, and generally you work in part the part

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<v Speaker 1>of the government that's the has the power to arrest people,

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<v Speaker 1>to take people hostage. So you work in one of

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<v Speaker 1>the security services, you work in the FSB, which is

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<v Speaker 1>their secret police, or you work in the Interior ministry

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<v Speaker 1>or which is the regular police, or you work in

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<v Speaker 1>the prosecutor's office. And then what you do once you're

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<v Speaker 1>in those places is you go around and arresting people

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<v Speaker 1>until they hand over stuff to you, until they become

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<v Speaker 1>a sort of client. And and so there's many many

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<v Speaker 1>people in jail who shouldn't be in jail and Russia

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<v Speaker 1>who are they put there so that all these crimes

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<v Speaker 1>could be committed without any questions being asked? So what

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<v Speaker 1>is the head space of the average Russian citizen? Are

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<v Speaker 1>they aware of this? Do they go along? We have

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<v Speaker 1>Nivali who's resisting, But generally what's the mindset? The mindset

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<v Speaker 1>is this happens at every level of Russian society. It

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<v Speaker 1>happens down to the local mayor and the local policeman

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<v Speaker 1>right up to the President of Russia. Everybody accepts it.

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<v Speaker 1>They know it happens, and they only think in wish

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<v Speaker 1>that they could be so lucky as to be involved

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<v Speaker 1>in this. And so it's a it's a weird cynical,

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<v Speaker 1>almost defeatist attitude. And of course people at the same

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<v Speaker 1>time are pretty piste off by it, because you know

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<v Speaker 1>that somebody is getting something that they're not, and so

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<v Speaker 1>that they they they wish they had it, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>not like they're morally outraged. There's outraged that they're not,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the recipients when somebody else is what is

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<v Speaker 1>the average quality of life in Russia? We have gross

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<v Speaker 1>incommittee quality. In the United States, there's somewhat of the

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<v Speaker 1>social safety net. What's the situation in Russia. It's just dramatic,

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<v Speaker 1>worse than than any any place in the world in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of incoming inequality. There's a thousand people that control

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<v Speaker 1>like and I don't know the exact number, but like

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<v Speaker 1>more than of all the assets in the country, and

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<v Speaker 1>everybody else lives and lives in destitute poverty. It means

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<v Speaker 1>a very very small middle class. And the average Russian

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<v Speaker 1>is like, you know, living in a in a shack

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<v Speaker 1>on an unpaved dirt road and they have to use

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<v Speaker 1>an outhouse. I mean, it's just horrible. If we were

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<v Speaker 1>to quiz these people were old enough to remember, would

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<v Speaker 1>they say things were better or worse under communism? I

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<v Speaker 1>think the average Russian would say that things were better

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<v Speaker 1>under communism because at least in that period of time,

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<v Speaker 1>there wasn't this whole sort of criminal regime running the country.

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<v Speaker 1>It was you know, the people who are running the

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<v Speaker 1>country were dictators and oppressive and and not not agreeing

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<v Speaker 1>to freedom of speech and freedom of the press. But

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<v Speaker 1>but it wasn't a criminal organization where they were taking

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<v Speaker 1>all the money and spending on on on santrope villas.

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<v Speaker 1>So how did you personally decide to move to Russian

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<v Speaker 1>invest in Russian companies? So that's an interesting story. My

0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:11.560
<v Speaker 1>grandfather was the general secretary of the American Communist Party

0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:18.240
<v Speaker 1>between ninety and and so my family sort of followed

0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.080
<v Speaker 1>in his footsteps. And we're extremely before you go there,

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 1>where was he originally born? Was he American? Were there

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:28.400
<v Speaker 1>any roots here? So my grandfather was from Wichita, Kansas.

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:33.400
<v Speaker 1>He was a labor union organizer. In n seven, he

0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.800
<v Speaker 1>was spotted by the Communists in the Soviet Union and

0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.360
<v Speaker 1>they said, if you if you like labor unionism, you're

0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:41.760
<v Speaker 1>gonna love communism when you come over here and check

0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:47.960
<v Speaker 1>it out. So my grandfather moved to Moscow and he

0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 1>did what most other single, red blooded American men do

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.199
<v Speaker 1>when they get to Moscow. He found a Russian girl

0:13:55.920 --> 0:14:01.120
<v Speaker 1>who became my grandmother. They had three sons, My father

0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.760
<v Speaker 1>was one of them, who was born in Moscow, and

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 1>then he returned to America to Yonkers, New York, and

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.680
<v Speaker 1>he became head of the American Communist Party. He ran

0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 1>for president against Roosevelt in nineteen thirty six and nineteen

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 1>forty on the Communist ticket. He was actually imprisoned by

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Roosevelt in nine and then pardon in nineteen two. Eventually

0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>kicked out of the Communist Party in ninety five for

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:32.640
<v Speaker 1>being too much of a capitalist, and then persecuted viciously

0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 1>during the McCarthy era in the nineteen fifties. And so

0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 1>this was my family legacy. I was born in nineteen

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 1>sixty four, fifty eight years old, and when I was

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.080
<v Speaker 1>going through my teenage rebellion, I tried to come up

0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:49.880
<v Speaker 1>with a good way of rebelling from this family of communists,

0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:52.520
<v Speaker 1>and I tried several things out. I grew my hair

0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:55.440
<v Speaker 1>along can't you can't tell because we're in a podcast,

0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.320
<v Speaker 1>but actually don't have any hair anymore. But it grew

0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>into an afro um. But that, strangely, that didn't upset

0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 1>my family. I followed the grateful dead around for a

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.440
<v Speaker 1>couple of months. That didn't upset my family. Then I

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.920
<v Speaker 1>came up with a perfect way of upsetting my family,

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 1>which was to put on a student tie and become

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>a capitalist, and that really upset them very much. So

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 1>I became a capitalist. I went to Stanford Business School.

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:23.720
<v Speaker 1>I graduated business school in nine which is the year

0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.920
<v Speaker 1>of the Berlin Wall came down. And as I was

0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:28.640
<v Speaker 1>trying to figure out what to do with my life,

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:30.520
<v Speaker 1>I had this epiphany one day, which is that of

0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:34.600
<v Speaker 1>my grandfather was the biggest communist in America, and the

0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.880
<v Speaker 1>Berlin Wall has just come down. I'm gonna try to

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.800
<v Speaker 1>become the biggest capitalist in Eastern Europe. And that's what

0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:43.640
<v Speaker 1>I set out to do. And I originally moved to London,

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 1>and then I moved to Moscow and I set up

0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.760
<v Speaker 1>an investment fund called the Hermitans. A little bit slower.

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 1>You graduated from Stanford, Is this your first employment situation?

0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 1>What are the companies you work for before you become

0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 1>a dependent? So at first I went to the Boston

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 1>Consulting Group. I was the My first job was in

0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:11.360
<v Speaker 1>the East European practice of the Boston Consulting Group in London,

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.600
<v Speaker 1>and my very first assignment was to go out to Poland.

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:18.320
<v Speaker 1>They sent me out to a bus company, a failing

0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:22.160
<v Speaker 1>bus company on the Polish Ukrainian border in a little

0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:26.880
<v Speaker 1>town called Sanak, And the only there was a very

0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>low paying assignment. The World Bank was paying the fees

0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 1>and they could only afford to send out a first

0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:38.040
<v Speaker 1>year associate like myself. So I go out to this

0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>little town, um and this bus factory is just in

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 1>a horrific condition. The main problem was that the state company,

0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 1>state bus company that buys the buses from the factory,

0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:54.480
<v Speaker 1>stopped their orders and they were responsible from their sales,

0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:59.200
<v Speaker 1>and so all of a sudden they were down. And

0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:03.680
<v Speaker 1>so it was kind of painful assignment because the main, uh,

0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the obvious thing to do. If you've lost your sales,

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.479
<v Speaker 1>you've got to cut your costs, and that meant firing

0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:13.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people in a town, which was effectively

0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:17.800
<v Speaker 1>in one company town. So it was very depressing assignment.

0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.800
<v Speaker 1>But while I was walking around sort of making lists

0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:24.959
<v Speaker 1>of people that probably should be fired, I had this translator.

0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:29.159
<v Speaker 1>His name was Lesk, and I noticed, and he was

0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.879
<v Speaker 1>always following me around and translating wherever I need to be,

0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.880
<v Speaker 1>wherever I need a translation, And he had this newspaper

0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.000
<v Speaker 1>under his arm, and I noticed that all these financial

0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:42.679
<v Speaker 1>figures on his newspaper and I I asked him what

0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:44.320
<v Speaker 1>are those and he said, ah, these are the very

0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:49.439
<v Speaker 1>first privatizations. I thought that that kind of piqued my interest,

0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:50.960
<v Speaker 1>and I said, can you explain them to me? And

0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.920
<v Speaker 1>so we went into a conference room and he laid

0:17:53.920 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 1>out the paper on the table and I said, what's

0:17:57.359 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 1>this number and he said, that's the number of shares

0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.960
<v Speaker 1>outstanding of the company. And I said what's this number?

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.920
<v Speaker 1>He said, that's the the share price that the government's

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:09.399
<v Speaker 1>selling the shares. And I'm multiply the two numbers together

0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:13.280
<v Speaker 1>and it got got to eighty million dollars, which is

0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:16.480
<v Speaker 1>the value of the company. And then I said, what's

0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:20.800
<v Speaker 1>this number, the one right below that? Uh? And he

0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.080
<v Speaker 1>said this is the net income of the company, the earnings.

0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:26.719
<v Speaker 1>I said, no, no, no, that that that must not

0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.400
<v Speaker 1>be right. He said, I said, just read it, read

0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:31.960
<v Speaker 1>it word for word, and it's like net income of company.

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 1>And that number was a hundred and sixty million dollars.

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 1>So you don't have to be a Stanford NBA or

0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:43.200
<v Speaker 1>even a financial professional to understand that if you can

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:46.399
<v Speaker 1>buy a company for eighty million dollars and it earned

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 1>a hundred and sixty million dollars in the previous year. Um.

0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 1>Then basically all you have to do is hold the

0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:55.600
<v Speaker 1>shares for half a year and you've already got your

0:18:55.640 --> 0:19:00.119
<v Speaker 1>money back. And so and this was this was not

0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.000
<v Speaker 1>the bus company we're working at. It was another company.

0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:04.520
<v Speaker 1>And so I said, well, how do we buy shares

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 1>of it? And he said, oh, it's very easy. We

0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.640
<v Speaker 1>we we can go to the post office and and

0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:14.000
<v Speaker 1>fill out an application form. And I thought, God, this

0:19:14.040 --> 0:19:17.600
<v Speaker 1>is like crazy. I I mean, I was very young,

0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:21.400
<v Speaker 1>I didn't have much money, but I had I think

0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:25.720
<v Speaker 1>I had like two thousand dollars of savings total life savings.

0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:28.600
<v Speaker 1>And I converted my two thousand dollars of life savings

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.800
<v Speaker 1>to Polish lotty. UM. I went down to the post

0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:36.399
<v Speaker 1>office with Leschek and I subscribed to the very first

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 1>privatizations and and over the next year I made ten

0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:49.840
<v Speaker 1>times my money. And there's this uh, weird chemical that

0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:51.880
<v Speaker 1>gets released in your stomach when you make ten times

0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 1>your money on an investment. It's like crack cocaine. You

0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.000
<v Speaker 1>want to you want to have, you want to do

0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:59.440
<v Speaker 1>it again and again and again, And that was the

0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:01.119
<v Speaker 1>moment I just I didn't. I didn't. I didn't want

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:02.639
<v Speaker 1>to be a consultant anymore. I wanted to be an

0:20:02.640 --> 0:20:04.960
<v Speaker 1>investor in all this stuff. So what was the next step?

0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.679
<v Speaker 1>Fast forward a little bit. UM. I ended up at

0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:13.320
<v Speaker 1>Solomon Brothers. Solomon Brothers um is used to be one

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:17.520
<v Speaker 1>of the big investment banks made made famous by liars poker.

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:21.399
<v Speaker 1>You have a Michael Lewis book exactly. So I joined

0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:26.440
<v Speaker 1>the East European investment banking team at Solomon Brothers. And

0:20:26.600 --> 0:20:31.520
<v Speaker 1>my very first assignment at Solomon Brothers was to advise

0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:36.159
<v Speaker 1>a fishing fleet called the Mermants Trawler Fleet located in

0:20:36.240 --> 0:20:39.040
<v Speaker 1>mermantsk which is a hundred miles north of the Arctic Circle.

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:42.560
<v Speaker 1>I think it's the furthest north population center in the world.

0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 1>So I go up to murmansk Um to advise this

0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:52.640
<v Speaker 1>management of this fishing fleet. And I get up there

0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:55.399
<v Speaker 1>and the head of the fishing fleet meets me at

0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.800
<v Speaker 1>the airport and he says, before we have our business meetings,

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:00.000
<v Speaker 1>so I just want to take you on a little

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:03.000
<v Speaker 1>tour so you can see what one of our trawlers

0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:07.320
<v Speaker 1>looks like. So we go down to the docks, and

0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:10.000
<v Speaker 1>in front of me is this enormous vessel. It's like

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:14.280
<v Speaker 1>four or five feet long and on the and it's

0:21:14.320 --> 0:21:16.760
<v Speaker 1>on all multiple decks, and on the top deck there's

0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:20.720
<v Speaker 1>this uh nets to catch the fish, and then the

0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.760
<v Speaker 1>next level there's they separate the fish. Then the next

0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:27.080
<v Speaker 1>level they treat the fish, and all the way down

0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:29.400
<v Speaker 1>to the to the lowest level where they have these

0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:34.439
<v Speaker 1>canning machines which they put the fish into cans. And

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:36.639
<v Speaker 1>so this wasn't just a fishing vessel. This was like

0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:41.359
<v Speaker 1>an ocean going factory, ocean going fish factory. And I

0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:47.960
<v Speaker 1>am I asked the guy, the management, the manager, the

0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:50.960
<v Speaker 1>CEO of this of this fleet. I said, how much

0:21:51.000 --> 0:21:53.800
<v Speaker 1>is one of these things cost? And he says twenty

0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:57.480
<v Speaker 1>million dollars new? And then I say, how many do

0:21:57.520 --> 0:22:01.920
<v Speaker 1>you have in your fleet? A hundred, So twenty million

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:04.360
<v Speaker 1>dollars times a hundred, because he has two billion dollars.

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:07.919
<v Speaker 1>And I said, what's the average age of your ships?

0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:11.040
<v Speaker 1>He is his seven years. Now. I don't know anything

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:13.040
<v Speaker 1>about ships for fishing, but I figured that makes them

0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:16.399
<v Speaker 1>maybe half depreciate it. So billion dollars with the ships,

0:22:17.720 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 1>and the reason that this guy had hired me was

0:22:20.920 --> 0:22:26.080
<v Speaker 1>to um advise him, revise him and his management team

0:22:26.160 --> 0:22:30.600
<v Speaker 1>on whether to exercise their legitimate right under the privatization

0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:35.880
<v Speaker 1>program of Russia to buy of the shares of this company.

0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:40.439
<v Speaker 1>And so I asked him, at what price is the

0:22:40.480 --> 0:22:44.480
<v Speaker 1>government selling you? And he said two and a half

0:22:44.520 --> 0:22:48.600
<v Speaker 1>million dollars. So let me just repeat the math. So

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:51.440
<v Speaker 1>there's a billion dollars with the ships, and you can

0:22:51.440 --> 0:22:56.920
<v Speaker 1>buy for two and a half million dollars. So I

0:22:57.400 --> 0:22:59.439
<v Speaker 1>got that feeling in my stomach, you know, the one

0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:03.199
<v Speaker 1>I had from the ten bagger in Poland. And I'm

0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:05.480
<v Speaker 1>thinking to myself, I don't want to be advising on

0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:07.920
<v Speaker 1>this stuff. I want I want to uh, I want

0:23:07.960 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 1>to own this stuff. And so instead of going back

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:16.080
<v Speaker 1>to London, which was where I lived, I am flew

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:20.160
<v Speaker 1>to Moscow and I got a I bought a very

0:23:20.200 --> 0:23:22.800
<v Speaker 1>thin English language yellow page directory that they sell at

0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:26.159
<v Speaker 1>the airport, and I went to my hotel room at

0:23:26.160 --> 0:23:29.760
<v Speaker 1>the Metropol Hotel and I started cold calling people in

0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:32.359
<v Speaker 1>the yellow pages to see whether someone could explain to

0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:37.239
<v Speaker 1>me how the Russian privatization program worked. And so I

0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 1>started having these meetings and over the course of a week,

0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:45.640
<v Speaker 1>I had forty or so meetings, and from those four

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:50.120
<v Speaker 1>or so meetings, I figured out that the Russian privatization

0:23:50.160 --> 0:23:54.880
<v Speaker 1>program was and always will be the single most compelling

0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 1>investment opportunity that's ever existed in the history of financial markets.

0:23:59.840 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 1>And what I had learned was that the main way

0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:07.960
<v Speaker 1>in which the Russian government was privatizing everything was through

0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:12.200
<v Speaker 1>something called the mass privatization program, and the mass privatization

0:24:12.240 --> 0:24:17.000
<v Speaker 1>program they gave away a physical certificate, a voucher they

0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:20.760
<v Speaker 1>called them, to every person in the country. So they

0:24:20.760 --> 0:24:23.640
<v Speaker 1>spread these vouchers out for free to everybody in the country.

0:24:24.720 --> 0:24:31.439
<v Speaker 1>And these vouchers were tradeable, sellable, givable, takeable, whatever you

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:32.920
<v Speaker 1>wanted to do with your voucher. You could do whatever

0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:37.760
<v Speaker 1>you want, there's no restriction. And as a result, a

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 1>secondary market emerged for these vouchers. And again, to do

0:24:41.760 --> 0:24:44.760
<v Speaker 1>a simple math, they traded for about twenty dollars each

0:24:45.840 --> 0:24:47.960
<v Speaker 1>dred and fifty million of them in circulation because that

0:24:48.000 --> 0:24:53.399
<v Speaker 1>was the population of Russia. So multiply twenty times a

0:24:53.640 --> 0:24:57.400
<v Speaker 1>d fifty million, that gets to three billion dollars worth

0:24:57.400 --> 0:25:01.720
<v Speaker 1>of vouchers that were in circulation. And those three billion

0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:06.760
<v Speaker 1>dollars with vouchers were exchangeable for the shares of every

0:25:06.840 --> 0:25:11.359
<v Speaker 1>single Russian company. So what that meant was that the

0:25:11.400 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>total value of the entire country of Russia was ten

0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:24.320
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars. Now that's for the whole country. This is

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:27.760
<v Speaker 1>a country with thirty five of the world's natural gas,

0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:32.280
<v Speaker 1>ten percent of the world's oil, ten percent of the

0:25:32.320 --> 0:25:37.680
<v Speaker 1>world steel, ten percent of the world's aluminum. There's fertilizer companies,

0:25:37.880 --> 0:25:40.760
<v Speaker 1>car companies, and telephone companies, you name it, they had it.

0:25:40.800 --> 0:25:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I means it's a full economy all For ten billion dollars.

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:49.640
<v Speaker 1>You couldn't buy it like one midsized Oklahoma oil company.

0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:51.800
<v Speaker 1>For ten billion dollars, you could buy the entire country

0:25:51.800 --> 0:25:57.160
<v Speaker 1>of Russia. And so I just got crazy with with excitement.

0:25:57.200 --> 0:25:58.960
<v Speaker 1>This was just the best thing I had ever seen.

0:26:00.480 --> 0:26:04.960
<v Speaker 1>I go back to Solomon Brothers and I try to

0:26:04.960 --> 0:26:09.480
<v Speaker 1>convince them that we should invest in Russia. And it

0:26:09.520 --> 0:26:12.480
<v Speaker 1>took a while before I was able to overcome all

0:26:12.560 --> 0:26:15.040
<v Speaker 1>the doubt, but I eventually got twenty five million dollars

0:26:16.280 --> 0:26:21.200
<v Speaker 1>put that money to work, and about six months after

0:26:21.280 --> 0:26:25.879
<v Speaker 1>I invested that million dollars, the Economist magazine wrote an

0:26:25.960 --> 0:26:28.120
<v Speaker 1>article called Sale of the century where they just went

0:26:28.119 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 1>through the same math that I've shared with you. And

0:26:32.400 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 1>on the back of that article, a whole bunch of people,

0:26:35.680 --> 0:26:40.959
<v Speaker 1>big investors, billionaires, hedge fund managers, etcetera, all wanted to

0:26:40.960 --> 0:26:44.600
<v Speaker 1>get in on the action. And it was a tiny, little,

0:26:45.280 --> 0:26:47.919
<v Speaker 1>thinly traded, a liquid stock market, and all of a sudden,

0:26:47.960 --> 0:26:55.120
<v Speaker 1>all these big eighteen pound guerrillas um start filtering in

0:26:55.560 --> 0:26:58.240
<v Speaker 1>in a tiny through a tiny little door, and over

0:26:58.280 --> 0:27:02.840
<v Speaker 1>a three week period, the stock market went up and

0:27:02.840 --> 0:27:07.520
<v Speaker 1>our million dollars turned into five million dollars, and all

0:27:07.520 --> 0:27:10.399
<v Speaker 1>of a sudden everyone wanted to know me. They started

0:27:10.440 --> 0:27:13.240
<v Speaker 1>taking me around to all the big investors on Wall Street,

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:19.359
<v Speaker 1>and one of them, a man named Edmund saffra Uh,

0:27:19.680 --> 0:27:22.199
<v Speaker 1>said he would give me tillion dollars to start my

0:27:22.240 --> 0:27:25.679
<v Speaker 1>own fund. And so I moved to Moscow. And this

0:27:25.760 --> 0:27:30.040
<v Speaker 1>is no set up. A company called Hermitage Capital Management

0:27:30.320 --> 0:27:35.000
<v Speaker 1>started a fund called the Hermitage Fund with dollars from

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 1>saffra and it was just an incredible launch. Over the

0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:51.119
<v Speaker 1>next eighteen months we were up eight Okay, you were

0:27:51.160 --> 0:27:55.919
<v Speaker 1>an individual, and now after this Economist article, everybody is in.

0:27:56.960 --> 0:28:00.600
<v Speaker 1>Was everybody doing that well or was something you knew

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:04.919
<v Speaker 1>that nobody else did. And what accounts for that huge increase. Well,

0:28:05.000 --> 0:28:08.199
<v Speaker 1>what happened was that all the other investors were sitting

0:28:08.880 --> 0:28:13.119
<v Speaker 1>in New York, in London and Geneva and other places,

0:28:13.960 --> 0:28:16.720
<v Speaker 1>and I was on the ground in Moscow. And there's

0:28:16.760 --> 0:28:19.440
<v Speaker 1>an expression in the Land of the Blind, the one

0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:24.480
<v Speaker 1>eyed man as king, and and so it's one of

0:28:24.560 --> 0:28:28.400
<v Speaker 1>these weird things where like you could get the most

0:28:28.480 --> 0:28:33.560
<v Speaker 1>unbelievable information just by showing up. So all the guys

0:28:33.600 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 1>in in New York, we're having to rely on other

0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:38.640
<v Speaker 1>people to tell them what was going on, And so

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 1>they would tell them about one oil company called Luke

0:28:40.840 --> 0:28:43.920
<v Speaker 1>Oil that's a famous Russian oil company. And they did

0:28:43.960 --> 0:28:45.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot of research on Luke Oil because there was

0:28:45.840 --> 0:28:47.959
<v Speaker 1>a lot of shares trading, and they get big commissions

0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:53.440
<v Speaker 1>the brokers. And I'm thinking, okay, yeah, that's interesting, But

0:28:53.440 --> 0:28:55.239
<v Speaker 1>what about this other oil company. It's almost as big

0:28:55.280 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 1>as Luke Oil, and it trades it about a discount

0:28:59.720 --> 0:29:01.960
<v Speaker 1>of Luke Oil because nobody has bothered to show up

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:04.840
<v Speaker 1>and ask a few questions at the company, which I did.

0:29:05.320 --> 0:29:07.760
<v Speaker 1>So I'd buy shares of the of the one that

0:29:07.840 --> 0:29:13.240
<v Speaker 1>was much cheaper and and so I ended up doing

0:29:13.240 --> 0:29:16.959
<v Speaker 1>phenomenally well for a period of time. Did you speak

0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:19.760
<v Speaker 1>Russian not a word? Did you go into a brilitche

0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:21.800
<v Speaker 1>program or you just said I'm never gonna know it.

0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:24.240
<v Speaker 1>I tried to learn it, but the things we're moving

0:29:24.280 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 1>so fast in the business world that I just, you know,

0:29:28.080 --> 0:29:30.920
<v Speaker 1>I couldn't take two hours out of my day to

0:29:31.000 --> 0:29:32.400
<v Speaker 1>do it. I mean, I just I didn't even have

0:29:32.440 --> 0:29:35.120
<v Speaker 1>a minute to to rest or, to think or do anything.

0:29:35.160 --> 0:29:36.800
<v Speaker 1>I was It was like riding a dirt bike. You

0:29:36.880 --> 0:29:39.400
<v Speaker 1>just had to keep your hands on the handlebar the

0:29:39.400 --> 0:29:43.680
<v Speaker 1>whole time or else you get thrown off. So I

0:29:43.680 --> 0:29:45.760
<v Speaker 1>didn't speak Russian. I had some good Russians working for me.

0:29:45.760 --> 0:29:48.440
<v Speaker 1>I ended up marrying a Russian who spoke perfect English,

0:29:48.480 --> 0:29:51.240
<v Speaker 1>and so somehow I was able to manage without speaking

0:29:51.240 --> 0:29:54.880
<v Speaker 1>the language amazingly. Okay, how many Bill Browders were there

0:29:54.920 --> 0:29:58.320
<v Speaker 1>in that era? Just one Bill Browder? Me? Really, no

0:29:58.360 --> 0:30:00.920
<v Speaker 1>one else followed your half? Well, how do there were?

0:30:00.960 --> 0:30:02.600
<v Speaker 1>There are a few guys who are trying to but

0:30:02.880 --> 0:30:07.400
<v Speaker 1>nobody ever could pull it off. It was I mean, yeah,

0:30:07.400 --> 0:30:09.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there was like there was one, you know,

0:30:09.200 --> 0:30:11.560
<v Speaker 1>one couple of guys that were like, you know, sort

0:30:11.560 --> 0:30:14.240
<v Speaker 1>of nipping at my heels and stuff like that. But

0:30:14.240 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 1>but for the most part, I was like sort of

0:30:16.240 --> 0:30:19.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, there was it was an incredible, um you know,

0:30:19.680 --> 0:30:24.080
<v Speaker 1>incredible to be the sort of king of this little sandbox. Now.

0:30:24.160 --> 0:30:27.000
<v Speaker 1>Needlet's say you went to business school and you're sophisticated,

0:30:27.040 --> 0:30:29.680
<v Speaker 1>but everybody is. And if you take this twenty five

0:30:29.760 --> 0:30:33.520
<v Speaker 1>million dollars and you invested, it is not your money,

0:30:33.680 --> 0:30:37.000
<v Speaker 1>Mr Saffros, how much of that do you get? Well,

0:30:37.800 --> 0:30:42.920
<v Speaker 1>what happens is if it goes up, I got and

0:30:42.960 --> 0:30:46.720
<v Speaker 1>so um as things started going up, I started making

0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:48.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot of money. And did you keep that money?

0:30:48.840 --> 0:30:51.560
<v Speaker 1>In Russia? It's like, you know, when your company is

0:30:51.640 --> 0:30:54.320
<v Speaker 1>going up in silicon value, most people take some money

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:57.080
<v Speaker 1>off the table just in case it crashes, or did

0:30:57.120 --> 0:30:58.920
<v Speaker 1>you keep all your money in the game. What what

0:30:59.120 --> 0:31:04.640
<v Speaker 1>happened was eventually started to piss off the Russian government

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.360
<v Speaker 1>by complaining about corruption because all the companies. I discovered

0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:12.120
<v Speaker 1>that all the companies I was invested in were corrupt,

0:31:13.240 --> 0:31:18.640
<v Speaker 1>and and I would do these naming and shaming campaigns

0:31:18.640 --> 0:31:21.600
<v Speaker 1>where I had researched the corruption and then expose it,

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:28.720
<v Speaker 1>which were very successful. These campaigns. But eventually they got

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 1>angry with me and they expelled me from the country.

0:31:32.960 --> 0:31:36.200
<v Speaker 1>And when they expelled me from the country, I sold everything.

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:41.120
<v Speaker 1>And when I sold everything, I crystallized my profits. And

0:31:41.200 --> 0:31:46.440
<v Speaker 1>so there's an expression better lucky than smart um. But

0:31:47.240 --> 0:31:49.200
<v Speaker 1>they kicked me out like ten percent below the top

0:31:49.200 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>of the market, and I was able to crystallize the

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:53.960
<v Speaker 1>profits from my clients and take my own money off

0:31:53.960 --> 0:31:58.600
<v Speaker 1>the table. And so it was an extraordinary um sort

0:31:58.600 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 1>of turn of events, which I don't think anyone intended

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 1>it to be the way it was, but worked out

0:32:04.520 --> 0:32:08.200
<v Speaker 1>financially very well for me. Now this late date, Hermitage

0:32:08.240 --> 0:32:11.720
<v Speaker 1>Capital still exists. What does it invest in? Hermage Capital

0:32:11.760 --> 0:32:15.240
<v Speaker 1>doesn't invest in anything. I gave up investing a long

0:32:15.280 --> 0:32:19.880
<v Speaker 1>time ago after Sergaymagnitsky was killed. I still have a

0:32:19.880 --> 0:32:23.280
<v Speaker 1>website and a business card and a and a company

0:32:23.360 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 1>formation that's called Hermitage Capital. But basically what I do

0:32:28.280 --> 0:32:30.680
<v Speaker 1>day in, day out now is is a fight for

0:32:30.800 --> 0:32:34.120
<v Speaker 1>justice for my murdered lawyer, s Gaymagnitsky. Okay, but you

0:32:34.200 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 1>do have employees, what are they doing? They're helping me

0:32:37.960 --> 0:32:41.640
<v Speaker 1>find out who's committed what crimes, where help me do

0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:46.040
<v Speaker 1>the research into the money laundering connected to the Magnitsky murder.

0:32:46.880 --> 0:32:50.920
<v Speaker 1>It's like a It's like a sort of h Batman

0:32:51.040 --> 0:32:55.040
<v Speaker 1>type of operation where we have ah an operation to

0:32:55.120 --> 0:32:58.080
<v Speaker 1>go after the bad guys. And who is managing your

0:32:58.160 --> 0:33:01.280
<v Speaker 1>money and how actively today? I've managed my money as

0:33:01.320 --> 0:33:04.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of an afterthought and not very actively at all. Okay,

0:33:04.080 --> 0:33:07.320
<v Speaker 1>let's go back, and as I say, Americans tend to

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:12.000
<v Speaker 1>be unsophisticated, even about their own country. So tell us

0:33:12.040 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 1>what is happening in Russian history and Russian government concomitant

0:33:16.480 --> 0:33:20.120
<v Speaker 1>ly with your enterprise when you moved there, et cetera.

0:33:20.440 --> 0:33:27.320
<v Speaker 1>When I moved to Russia in it was total chaos.

0:33:28.360 --> 0:33:33.560
<v Speaker 1>It was Yelson was the president of Russia. Um he

0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:36.840
<v Speaker 1>had done a deal with the oligarchs where basically he

0:33:36.880 --> 0:33:39.480
<v Speaker 1>allowed them to steal forty pc of the country. There's

0:33:39.480 --> 0:33:42.520
<v Speaker 1>twenty two of these guys in exchange, they would use

0:33:42.560 --> 0:33:45.000
<v Speaker 1>all of their resources to support him and make sure

0:33:45.000 --> 0:33:49.400
<v Speaker 1>he stayed in power. As a results of this massive

0:33:50.240 --> 0:33:54.960
<v Speaker 1>theft and compromise that Yelson made, the life expectancy of

0:33:55.000 --> 0:33:58.360
<v Speaker 1>a male in Russia was like fifty seven years. Just

0:33:58.440 --> 0:34:02.239
<v Speaker 1>a terrible place to live. Everything didn't work. It was

0:34:02.320 --> 0:34:08.400
<v Speaker 1>just horrific and humiliating and horrible. And then at the

0:34:09.239 --> 0:34:13.960
<v Speaker 1>as Jelson was looking particularly frail and and like he

0:34:14.040 --> 0:34:17.680
<v Speaker 1>was going to die of a heart attack or some

0:34:17.719 --> 0:34:23.719
<v Speaker 1>other thing, he decided to put in his successor, and

0:34:23.760 --> 0:34:27.960
<v Speaker 1>his successor ultimately was Vladimir Putin. Let's stop there for

0:34:28.000 --> 0:34:32.960
<v Speaker 1>a second. Some people say that Yelsen was impressed with

0:34:33.160 --> 0:34:37.200
<v Speaker 1>how Putin got another criminal. I think it was a

0:34:37.280 --> 0:34:40.279
<v Speaker 1>mayor out of the country, and he put Putin in

0:34:40.320 --> 0:34:43.760
<v Speaker 1>with the understanding that he would make sure he wasn't prosecuted.

0:34:44.160 --> 0:34:46.560
<v Speaker 1>Is that true? To what degree is that known by

0:34:46.600 --> 0:34:50.120
<v Speaker 1>the public. Untrue, That's very true. It's the crux of

0:34:50.120 --> 0:34:54.680
<v Speaker 1>the whole situation. Well, let me back up. Yelson needed

0:34:54.719 --> 0:34:57.840
<v Speaker 1>to have somebody who would pardon him as the first

0:34:57.920 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 1>act of being the new president of Russia. Um, why

0:35:03.040 --> 0:35:05.160
<v Speaker 1>did Yelson need that? Because he had done so many

0:35:05.280 --> 0:35:07.760
<v Speaker 1>compromises and the illegal things that he was worried about

0:35:07.760 --> 0:35:12.960
<v Speaker 1>being indicted so and he was also knowing for sure

0:35:13.000 --> 0:35:17.759
<v Speaker 1>that he couldn't last being president that much longer. So

0:35:18.040 --> 0:35:21.040
<v Speaker 1>his goal was to find somebody who was strong enough

0:35:21.600 --> 0:35:25.160
<v Speaker 1>to be to become president, stay as president, not lose

0:35:25.200 --> 0:35:29.600
<v Speaker 1>it so that the pardon with stick, and he actually

0:35:29.600 --> 0:35:34.719
<v Speaker 1>went through three other candidates who became prime minister. They

0:35:34.760 --> 0:35:38.960
<v Speaker 1>had three different prime ministers who, for one reason or

0:35:38.960 --> 0:35:43.440
<v Speaker 1>another he chose badly didn't work out, and so he

0:35:43.440 --> 0:35:47.160
<v Speaker 1>would fire one and replace them with another. And so

0:35:47.320 --> 0:35:52.319
<v Speaker 1>Putin was actually Yelson's fourth choice, so and and and

0:35:52.360 --> 0:35:54.480
<v Speaker 1>it was almost like you know, when you're kind of

0:35:54.520 --> 0:35:58.720
<v Speaker 1>like running out of options, and and what everybody thought

0:35:59.160 --> 0:36:02.480
<v Speaker 1>Putin would be good for was that he was very

0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:08.000
<v Speaker 1>sober um, sort of kept his cards close to the chest,

0:36:08.080 --> 0:36:12.320
<v Speaker 1>but it seemed like a technocrat, and it was extremely loyal.

0:36:13.480 --> 0:36:17.080
<v Speaker 1>And you mentioned his story about how his boss who

0:36:17.160 --> 0:36:19.600
<v Speaker 1>was the mayor, he was the deputy mayor of St. Petersburg.

0:36:19.840 --> 0:36:22.719
<v Speaker 1>Putin was and his boss kind named Subcheck was the

0:36:22.760 --> 0:36:26.200
<v Speaker 1>mayor and there was some corruption scandal and he got

0:36:26.280 --> 0:36:29.960
<v Speaker 1>Subcheck out of the country um and put him in

0:36:30.000 --> 0:36:33.279
<v Speaker 1>a like hospital in Paris or something like that where

0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:36.640
<v Speaker 1>they couldn't get get hold of him. And so that

0:36:36.719 --> 0:36:39.600
<v Speaker 1>was a good sign for Yelson. And so when he

0:36:39.640 --> 0:36:43.080
<v Speaker 1>finally picked his fourth choice Putin, he did so on

0:36:43.120 --> 0:36:47.719
<v Speaker 1>that basis and and uh, probably a few other criteria

0:36:47.760 --> 0:36:51.880
<v Speaker 1>as well. Now being in the country. Obviously it's corrupt.

0:36:52.120 --> 0:36:55.160
<v Speaker 1>Could you feel a difference with the transition of power? Now,

0:36:55.320 --> 0:36:59.480
<v Speaker 1>supposedly they jinned up a war crisis to help the transition,

0:36:59.560 --> 0:37:02.320
<v Speaker 1>But what was like for you and the people during

0:37:02.360 --> 0:37:06.480
<v Speaker 1>this transition? So the transition, well, it wasn't clear how

0:37:06.520 --> 0:37:10.040
<v Speaker 1>this transition was going to work because the big problem

0:37:10.040 --> 0:37:12.120
<v Speaker 1>with Putin so he seemed you know, not and not,

0:37:12.239 --> 0:37:14.560
<v Speaker 1>he wasn't drunk and all that kind of stuff. But

0:37:15.160 --> 0:37:18.120
<v Speaker 1>the problem, um is that nobody had ever heard of

0:37:18.120 --> 0:37:24.279
<v Speaker 1>this guy. He was a total enigma. And um that

0:37:24.360 --> 0:37:26.920
<v Speaker 1>Putin had to be elected president. So what happened was

0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:30.920
<v Speaker 1>they appointed him Prime Minister. Yelson resigns as president. Putin

0:37:30.960 --> 0:37:34.319
<v Speaker 1>becomes acting president, but he has to be in three

0:37:34.360 --> 0:37:36.080
<v Speaker 1>months time, there's gonna be an election and he has

0:37:36.120 --> 0:37:38.600
<v Speaker 1>to be elected president. And this was back in the

0:37:38.640 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 1>days when democracy still existed in Russia. So what did

0:37:43.080 --> 0:37:49.640
<v Speaker 1>Putin do? Putin, Um, he had this organization under him

0:37:49.719 --> 0:37:52.360
<v Speaker 1>called the FSB, which used to be called the KGB,

0:37:52.600 --> 0:37:57.520
<v Speaker 1>the secret police, and the secret police started planting apartment

0:37:57.560 --> 0:38:02.040
<v Speaker 1>bombs inside Moscow and then blowing up apartment buildings with

0:38:02.080 --> 0:38:06.080
<v Speaker 1>people inside of them. And I was there at the time,

0:38:06.120 --> 0:38:11.920
<v Speaker 1>and so one building would blow up, and and everybody

0:38:11.920 --> 0:38:14.640
<v Speaker 1>in the entire city of Moscow would be horrified. And

0:38:14.640 --> 0:38:17.800
<v Speaker 1>you see these pictures and the mangled bodies and the

0:38:17.920 --> 0:38:22.000
<v Speaker 1>destroyed buildings, And then the next couple of days, another

0:38:22.000 --> 0:38:25.520
<v Speaker 1>building would blow up, more mangled bodies, and and like,

0:38:25.560 --> 0:38:28.000
<v Speaker 1>there wasn't a single person in Moscow, including myself, that

0:38:28.080 --> 0:38:30.480
<v Speaker 1>could sleep peacefully through the night because you're all thinking.

0:38:30.680 --> 0:38:33.640
<v Speaker 1>Everyone thought they were going to be in an apartment

0:38:33.640 --> 0:38:40.680
<v Speaker 1>that blows up. And eventually um Putin and his guys

0:38:40.719 --> 0:38:44.239
<v Speaker 1>planted a bomb in in a in a provincial city

0:38:44.280 --> 0:38:48.919
<v Speaker 1>outside of Moscow. Uh, but the local police, who weren't

0:38:48.960 --> 0:38:51.200
<v Speaker 1>in on the scam, caught them in on the act,

0:38:53.000 --> 0:38:57.080
<v Speaker 1>and uh, and it became obvious that this was not uh,

0:38:57.600 --> 0:39:01.360
<v Speaker 1>so it was Putin doing the bombs. But Putin blamed

0:39:01.400 --> 0:39:06.560
<v Speaker 1>the whole thing on Chechens. Chechen. The Chechens are a

0:39:06.560 --> 0:39:10.080
<v Speaker 1>group of people that live in southern Russia. They look

0:39:10.480 --> 0:39:13.200
<v Speaker 1>darker than the average Russian and they were kind of

0:39:13.200 --> 0:39:17.279
<v Speaker 1>blamed for all Russia's problems, and so Putin blamed it

0:39:17.320 --> 0:39:21.120
<v Speaker 1>on the Chechens. And and everybody was so angry and

0:39:21.239 --> 0:39:24.640
<v Speaker 1>upset and insecure because of all this U all these

0:39:24.640 --> 0:39:27.720
<v Speaker 1>apartment bombs going off and thinking they'd be in them.

0:39:27.840 --> 0:39:31.759
<v Speaker 1>Everyone wanted revenge and blood and reaction and something somebody tough,

0:39:31.920 --> 0:39:34.839
<v Speaker 1>and so Putin then says, it's the Chechens who did this.

0:39:35.440 --> 0:39:37.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna bomb them wherever they are, even in the

0:39:37.680 --> 0:39:40.640
<v Speaker 1>ship house. He said. That was a famous quote from Putin,

0:39:41.680 --> 0:39:45.920
<v Speaker 1>and all the Russians cheered. Putin started the war against

0:39:45.920 --> 0:39:51.480
<v Speaker 1>Czechnia and literally flattened Grozni, which is their capital, to

0:39:51.520 --> 0:39:55.520
<v Speaker 1>the ground. There wasn't like a building left standing, killing

0:39:55.560 --> 0:40:01.080
<v Speaker 1>tens of thousands of Chechens. And guess what his approval

0:40:01.120 --> 0:40:05.520
<v Speaker 1>ratings went through the roof. And so Putin learned at

0:40:05.560 --> 0:40:09.799
<v Speaker 1>that moment in time how valuable wars were in solidifying

0:40:09.840 --> 0:40:12.600
<v Speaker 1>his support. And that's not a lesson that was lost

0:40:12.600 --> 0:40:15.359
<v Speaker 1>on him, because he's fought a few more wars at

0:40:15.400 --> 0:40:19.080
<v Speaker 1>times when he was feeling insecure. Okay, you're using your

0:40:19.120 --> 0:40:24.600
<v Speaker 1>American values in Russia, you're fighting corruption. Do you ever

0:40:24.719 --> 0:40:27.239
<v Speaker 1>think I'm a fish out of water here? This is

0:40:27.280 --> 0:40:30.120
<v Speaker 1>gonna end, There's gonna be trouble or were you so

0:40:30.200 --> 0:40:34.319
<v Speaker 1>caught up in your capitalistic ways that you felt no, no,

0:40:34.400 --> 0:40:36.360
<v Speaker 1>this is numbers. This is gonna work. Well, it's a

0:40:36.400 --> 0:40:39.239
<v Speaker 1>bit of a lot of things. So in order to

0:40:39.280 --> 0:40:43.120
<v Speaker 1>go to Russia, a normal person wouldn't have gone to Russia.

0:40:43.520 --> 0:40:45.680
<v Speaker 1>A normal person would have said, this is crazy. They're

0:40:45.760 --> 0:40:48.080
<v Speaker 1>killing people in the streets, They're doing all sorts of stuff.

0:40:49.320 --> 0:40:51.520
<v Speaker 1>So in order to go to Russia, you kind of

0:40:51.560 --> 0:40:54.719
<v Speaker 1>have to have your risk sensors sanded down. In the

0:40:54.760 --> 0:40:57.839
<v Speaker 1>first place. You can't be thinking all these bad things

0:40:57.880 --> 0:40:59.440
<v Speaker 1>are gonna happen to you, because there's too many bad

0:40:59.480 --> 0:41:01.600
<v Speaker 1>things that you can think about that might happen to you.

0:41:02.320 --> 0:41:06.959
<v Speaker 1>And so let's say that my risk sensors were sanded down.

0:41:08.800 --> 0:41:13.680
<v Speaker 1>And then when I got there, I started small and

0:41:13.800 --> 0:41:17.480
<v Speaker 1>started making money for my clients. For myself, I started

0:41:17.520 --> 0:41:22.000
<v Speaker 1>making more money, and after a while I had a

0:41:22.000 --> 0:41:25.279
<v Speaker 1>big business there, and so I had a lot to

0:41:25.320 --> 0:41:29.080
<v Speaker 1>lose if I ever were to like leave. And then

0:41:29.080 --> 0:41:33.200
<v Speaker 1>the first rip offs started to happen. And the first

0:41:33.200 --> 0:41:36.360
<v Speaker 1>big rip off was was a guy named Vladimir Batannan.

0:41:36.440 --> 0:41:39.640
<v Speaker 1>He's a famous oligarch. Tried to steal my shares in

0:41:39.680 --> 0:41:43.000
<v Speaker 1>an oil company called Sedanco A little bit slower. What

0:41:43.200 --> 0:41:45.480
<v Speaker 1>year resist and how did he try to steal them?

0:41:45.560 --> 0:41:50.239
<v Speaker 1>So this was in nineteen I think I owned two

0:41:50.280 --> 0:41:54.879
<v Speaker 1>percent of Sedanko, and Sedanco was an oil company that

0:41:55.000 --> 0:41:59.520
<v Speaker 1>was um trading at a huge discount to the other

0:41:59.560 --> 0:42:02.960
<v Speaker 1>big oil companies, and I brought into it, and this guy,

0:42:03.080 --> 0:42:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Vladimer Britanon owned and I can't remember the exact numbers,

0:42:10.800 --> 0:42:14.480
<v Speaker 1>but but I am. I think I paid twelve million

0:42:14.520 --> 0:42:20.399
<v Speaker 1>dollars for my two percent, and about a year later,

0:42:21.120 --> 0:42:27.880
<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Britannon sold ten percent of his to British Petroleum

0:42:27.920 --> 0:42:33.000
<v Speaker 1>at a price that would have valued my hat like

0:42:33.000 --> 0:42:37.600
<v Speaker 1>a twenty million. So I had made like ten times

0:42:37.680 --> 0:42:41.879
<v Speaker 1>my money, and I was feeling just like the best

0:42:41.920 --> 0:42:43.560
<v Speaker 1>guy in the world. I mean that was I was.

0:42:43.719 --> 0:42:46.839
<v Speaker 1>I would think I was barely even thirty years old,

0:42:46.920 --> 0:42:49.880
<v Speaker 1>and I just made this enormous fortune for my clients.

0:42:49.880 --> 0:42:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Remember I got of that myself, and so I'm feeling

0:42:54.360 --> 0:42:59.120
<v Speaker 1>just the king of the world. And then Batanon comes along,

0:42:59.160 --> 0:43:02.560
<v Speaker 1>and this is a really interesting Russian phenomenon where he

0:43:02.640 --> 0:43:05.839
<v Speaker 1>wasn't celebrating the fact that he owned forty times more

0:43:05.880 --> 0:43:09.440
<v Speaker 1>shares of Sedanco and he was immensely rich based on

0:43:09.520 --> 0:43:15.560
<v Speaker 1>this BP transaction. Somehow it bothered him. It really bothered him.

0:43:15.600 --> 0:43:18.680
<v Speaker 1>That that I made money on this deal, Like, why

0:43:18.760 --> 0:43:21.360
<v Speaker 1>was I allowed to make the money? Somehow, he felt

0:43:21.360 --> 0:43:26.600
<v Speaker 1>like that was just wrong, and so he organized a

0:43:26.640 --> 0:43:31.120
<v Speaker 1>machination where he would sell himself in his cronies more

0:43:31.200 --> 0:43:36.080
<v Speaker 1>shares of the company at a huge discount to the

0:43:36.120 --> 0:43:41.240
<v Speaker 1>normal price and not allow me to invest, which meant

0:43:41.320 --> 0:43:44.279
<v Speaker 1>meant basically that they were going to steal. I think

0:43:44.280 --> 0:43:46.680
<v Speaker 1>they were gonna try to steal the equivalent of seventy

0:43:46.719 --> 0:43:51.040
<v Speaker 1>million dollars from me in terms of this machination. And

0:43:51.080 --> 0:43:53.360
<v Speaker 1>so at this point I had a lot to lose,

0:43:55.040 --> 0:43:59.960
<v Speaker 1>and so uh, I decided to fight him. And nobody

0:44:00.000 --> 0:44:02.360
<v Speaker 1>had ever fought an oligarch before in Russia. It's certainly

0:44:02.440 --> 0:44:07.359
<v Speaker 1>not some guy from the south side of Chicago. And

0:44:07.400 --> 0:44:08.960
<v Speaker 1>so I fight him. And the way that I fought

0:44:08.960 --> 0:44:12.040
<v Speaker 1>with him was first, first I went to him, it's

0:44:12.600 --> 0:44:14.799
<v Speaker 1>just asked him to stop it. Of course he laughed

0:44:14.840 --> 0:44:17.200
<v Speaker 1>at me. I didn't go to him personally. I went

0:44:17.200 --> 0:44:21.480
<v Speaker 1>to one of his representatives. Uh. Then I went to

0:44:22.040 --> 0:44:24.600
<v Speaker 1>all the other Western investors who had done business with

0:44:24.680 --> 0:44:26.839
<v Speaker 1>him and showed them what they did, what he had done.

0:44:27.880 --> 0:44:30.759
<v Speaker 1>Then I went to the newspapers and went public with

0:44:30.760 --> 0:44:35.680
<v Speaker 1>the whole thing. And then I eventually went to an

0:44:35.719 --> 0:44:41.880
<v Speaker 1>obscure government official was involved in securities regulation and immense

0:44:42.000 --> 0:44:45.680
<v Speaker 1>amazingly and this has rarely ever happened in Russia before

0:44:45.800 --> 0:44:52.880
<v Speaker 1>or after this regulator canceled this this financial uh uh

0:44:53.080 --> 0:44:56.040
<v Speaker 1>scam that he was organizing, and I was brought back

0:44:56.080 --> 0:45:01.399
<v Speaker 1>to normal. And and my success in this for crisis,

0:45:01.400 --> 0:45:08.640
<v Speaker 1>this first approach and first stealing thing, um gave me

0:45:09.440 --> 0:45:13.680
<v Speaker 1>such confidence that I decided to do it again. And

0:45:13.760 --> 0:45:18.560
<v Speaker 1>I did it at the national gas company gas BROM

0:45:18.600 --> 0:45:21.120
<v Speaker 1>and then I did it again at the National Savings

0:45:21.160 --> 0:45:24.759
<v Speaker 1>Bank Spare Bank, and and then at one of the

0:45:24.800 --> 0:45:27.719
<v Speaker 1>oil company is called Circo deft to Gas. And I

0:45:27.760 --> 0:45:29.840
<v Speaker 1>was just doing this over and over and over again

0:45:30.200 --> 0:45:32.200
<v Speaker 1>and and and the thing about it is sort of

0:45:32.760 --> 0:45:35.719
<v Speaker 1>it's all incremental. You start these fights and then you

0:45:35.800 --> 0:45:38.080
<v Speaker 1>do another one, and and so you ask like, why

0:45:38.200 --> 0:45:41.320
<v Speaker 1>was I doing it? Wasn't it was it wasn't crazy.

0:45:41.520 --> 0:45:44.240
<v Speaker 1>And I had just gotten such a sense of confidence

0:45:44.239 --> 0:45:45.640
<v Speaker 1>and somehow I could get away with it that I

0:45:45.680 --> 0:45:51.360
<v Speaker 1>just kept on doing it. And of course anyone who

0:45:51.880 --> 0:45:53.799
<v Speaker 1>google's my name will know that that didn't turn out

0:45:53.800 --> 0:46:04.560
<v Speaker 1>so well. So what was the triggered exile. Well, that's

0:46:05.000 --> 0:46:08.239
<v Speaker 1>a good question, one that there's no definitive answer. It

0:46:08.320 --> 0:46:11.400
<v Speaker 1>was either going after gas Prom, which is the largest

0:46:11.440 --> 0:46:14.319
<v Speaker 1>company in Russia, or going after this company called Sir

0:46:14.440 --> 0:46:16.960
<v Speaker 1>good neft to gas which is a very murky and

0:46:17.000 --> 0:46:22.120
<v Speaker 1>criminalized oil company. Either way. Um, In November of two

0:46:22.120 --> 0:46:26.239
<v Speaker 1>thousand five, as I was flying back to Russia from

0:46:26.239 --> 0:46:30.480
<v Speaker 1>a business trip abroad from London, I was stopped at

0:46:30.480 --> 0:46:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the border. I was arrested, I was put in the

0:46:34.680 --> 0:46:38.240
<v Speaker 1>airport detention center. I was kept there for fifteen hours,

0:46:39.440 --> 0:46:42.920
<v Speaker 1>and then I was deported back to London and declared

0:46:42.960 --> 0:46:45.480
<v Speaker 1>a threat to national security. Okay, if you read the

0:46:45.520 --> 0:46:49.319
<v Speaker 1>second book, especially Freezing Order, which is relatively new book

0:46:49.320 --> 0:46:52.200
<v Speaker 1>came out two months ago, the case is made that

0:46:52.239 --> 0:46:55.839
<v Speaker 1>Putin literally knows who you are, and it's after you

0:46:55.920 --> 0:46:59.200
<v Speaker 1>as an individual. You know that doesn't happen in America

0:46:59.239 --> 0:47:01.640
<v Speaker 1>to that degree. What's going on? Hey? Is that true?

0:47:01.640 --> 0:47:06.040
<v Speaker 1>Would be? What's the backstory? It's true? Um? And UM?

0:47:06.080 --> 0:47:08.640
<v Speaker 1>I can prove it by by showing you a clip

0:47:08.719 --> 0:47:13.279
<v Speaker 1>of the Putin Trump summit in Helsinki where you can

0:47:13.320 --> 0:47:16.879
<v Speaker 1>hear Putin uttering my name and asking Trump to hand

0:47:16.920 --> 0:47:20.640
<v Speaker 1>me over and in response, you can hear Trump saying,

0:47:20.680 --> 0:47:23.800
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a great idea. But the backstory to

0:47:23.880 --> 0:47:32.600
<v Speaker 1>that is that after I was expelled ah from Russia, UM,

0:47:32.640 --> 0:47:37.759
<v Speaker 1>my offices were rated and the police seized all of

0:47:37.800 --> 0:47:44.160
<v Speaker 1>my documents corporate documents for investment holding companies, and those

0:47:44.200 --> 0:47:51.520
<v Speaker 1>documents UM were then used to fraudulently reregister our investment

0:47:51.520 --> 0:47:54.880
<v Speaker 1>holding companies out of our name into the name of

0:47:54.920 --> 0:47:57.359
<v Speaker 1>a guy who had been convicted of manslaughter and let

0:47:57.360 --> 0:48:01.600
<v Speaker 1>out of jail. Early at this point I hired the

0:48:01.600 --> 0:48:04.640
<v Speaker 1>smartest lawyer I knew in Russia, a young man named

0:48:04.640 --> 0:48:11.919
<v Speaker 1>Sergey Magnitsky. I asked Sergey to investigate. Serge went and investigated,

0:48:12.760 --> 0:48:15.640
<v Speaker 1>and he came back and he said, the reason that

0:48:15.640 --> 0:48:20.000
<v Speaker 1>they stole your companies was to steal twoty million dollars

0:48:20.000 --> 0:48:23.200
<v Speaker 1>of taxes that you paid to the Russian government in

0:48:23.239 --> 0:48:27.320
<v Speaker 1>the previous year. They came up with a very complicated

0:48:27.360 --> 0:48:35.799
<v Speaker 1>machination to do that. And when we discovered this, Serge

0:48:35.800 --> 0:48:40.680
<v Speaker 1>was particularly shocked because he thought that Putin was a

0:48:40.800 --> 0:48:45.360
<v Speaker 1>nationalist and that he wouldn't have allowed nearly a quarter

0:48:45.440 --> 0:48:48.560
<v Speaker 1>of a billion dollars of government money to be stolen,

0:48:50.440 --> 0:48:53.160
<v Speaker 1>and he figured, if we just wrote complaints to the

0:48:53.200 --> 0:48:57.640
<v Speaker 1>highest level of the Russian government, then the good guys

0:48:57.640 --> 0:48:59.160
<v Speaker 1>will get the bad guys and that would be the

0:48:59.239 --> 0:49:03.040
<v Speaker 1>end of the story. And so Serge wrote criminal complaints

0:49:03.040 --> 0:49:07.920
<v Speaker 1>to every different branch of Russian law enforcement. I went

0:49:07.960 --> 0:49:12.839
<v Speaker 1>to the TV radio newspapers highlighted the story, and then

0:49:12.840 --> 0:49:17.480
<v Speaker 1>Surge gave swegn testimony to the Russian State Investigative Committee,

0:49:17.480 --> 0:49:21.680
<v Speaker 1>which is their version of the FBI. And then we

0:49:21.760 --> 0:49:24.360
<v Speaker 1>sat back and we waited for the good guys to

0:49:24.400 --> 0:49:27.480
<v Speaker 1>get the bad guys. Well, it turns out, then Vladimir

0:49:27.520 --> 0:49:33.640
<v Speaker 1>Putin's Russia, there's no good guys about uh. Five weeks

0:49:33.640 --> 0:49:38.400
<v Speaker 1>after Surge testified, the same police officers he testified against

0:49:39.200 --> 0:49:45.480
<v Speaker 1>came to his home on November two eight and they

0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:50.040
<v Speaker 1>arrested him. They put him in pre trial detention and

0:49:50.040 --> 0:49:52.440
<v Speaker 1>then they tortured him to get him to withdraw his testimony.

0:49:52.719 --> 0:49:55.680
<v Speaker 1>They put him in cells with fourteen inmates and eight beds,

0:49:56.239 --> 0:49:58.360
<v Speaker 1>left lights on twenty four hours a day to impose

0:49:58.400 --> 0:50:01.760
<v Speaker 1>sleep deprivation. They put him in cells with no heat

0:50:02.520 --> 0:50:05.400
<v Speaker 1>and no window panes. In December and Moscow, so he

0:50:05.480 --> 0:50:08.840
<v Speaker 1>newly froze to death. They put him in cells with

0:50:08.840 --> 0:50:10.440
<v Speaker 1>no toilet, just a hole in the floor where the

0:50:10.480 --> 0:50:13.719
<v Speaker 1>sewage would bubble up. They moved him from cell to

0:50:13.760 --> 0:50:17.200
<v Speaker 1>cell to cell in the middle of the night. And

0:50:17.239 --> 0:50:18.680
<v Speaker 1>the purpose of all this was to get him to

0:50:18.719 --> 0:50:23.359
<v Speaker 1>withdraw his testimony against the corrupt police officers and again

0:50:23.440 --> 0:50:25.600
<v Speaker 1>him to sign his false confession, to say that he's

0:50:25.600 --> 0:50:28.560
<v Speaker 1>told the two thirty million dollars. And he did so

0:50:28.640 --> 0:50:32.640
<v Speaker 1>on my instruction. And Sergey was a man of such

0:50:32.760 --> 0:50:36.600
<v Speaker 1>incredible integrity and principle that for him the idea of

0:50:36.680 --> 0:50:41.120
<v Speaker 1>perjuring himself and bearing false witness it was more awful

0:50:41.200 --> 0:50:44.319
<v Speaker 1>than the physical pain they were subjecting him to. And

0:50:44.360 --> 0:50:51.680
<v Speaker 1>he refused, and in retaliation they then up to the

0:50:51.719 --> 0:50:56.520
<v Speaker 1>torture and went after him even further. And after about

0:50:56.560 --> 0:51:00.520
<v Speaker 1>six months of this, his health started to digterior. He

0:51:00.640 --> 0:51:05.480
<v Speaker 1>got terrible pains in his stomach. He lost forty pounds,

0:51:05.680 --> 0:51:09.880
<v Speaker 1>and he was diagnosed as having pancreatitis and gallstones and

0:51:09.960 --> 0:51:14.320
<v Speaker 1>needing an operation, which was scheduled for the first of

0:51:14.360 --> 0:51:19.160
<v Speaker 1>August two thousand nine. A week before the operation, they

0:51:19.160 --> 0:51:26.640
<v Speaker 1>came to him again again uh asked him again. He

0:51:26.680 --> 0:51:32.759
<v Speaker 1>refused to do the false confession, and in response, they

0:51:32.800 --> 0:51:37.000
<v Speaker 1>moved him to a maximum security prison called Boutyrka, which

0:51:37.040 --> 0:51:39.840
<v Speaker 1>is considered to be one of the most horrible prisons

0:51:39.880 --> 0:51:43.399
<v Speaker 1>in Russia, and most significantly for Sergey, there was no

0:51:43.640 --> 0:51:48.759
<v Speaker 1>medical facilities there. At Boucherka's health completely broke down. He

0:51:48.800 --> 0:51:53.600
<v Speaker 1>went into constant, agonizing, ear piercing pain. He and his

0:51:53.680 --> 0:51:57.279
<v Speaker 1>lawyers wrote twenty different desperate requests for medical attention to

0:51:57.320 --> 0:52:01.200
<v Speaker 1>every different branch of the criminal justice system, and every

0:52:01.200 --> 0:52:03.880
<v Speaker 1>one of those letters was either ignored or denied in writing,

0:52:05.320 --> 0:52:07.880
<v Speaker 1>and on the night of November six thousand nine, Sergey

0:52:07.920 --> 0:52:12.600
<v Speaker 1>Magnisky went into critical condition. On that night, the Butcherka

0:52:12.600 --> 0:52:15.960
<v Speaker 1>authorities didn't want to have responsibility for him anymore. They

0:52:15.960 --> 0:52:17.920
<v Speaker 1>put him in an ambulance sent him to a different

0:52:18.160 --> 0:52:21.680
<v Speaker 1>prison across town that had a medical wing. When he

0:52:21.760 --> 0:52:25.319
<v Speaker 1>arrived there, instead of putting him in the emergency room,

0:52:25.320 --> 0:52:27.520
<v Speaker 1>they put him in an isolation cell. They changed him

0:52:27.520 --> 0:52:30.720
<v Speaker 1>to a bed, and eight riot guards with rubber baton's

0:52:30.719 --> 0:52:35.400
<v Speaker 1>beat him until he died. He was thirty seven years old.

0:52:36.320 --> 0:52:40.040
<v Speaker 1>He left a wife and two children. Since that moment,

0:52:40.280 --> 0:52:42.479
<v Speaker 1>I've been on a mission to go after the people

0:52:42.520 --> 0:52:44.920
<v Speaker 1>who killed him. To make sure they faced justice. And

0:52:44.920 --> 0:52:46.879
<v Speaker 1>for the last twelve years, that's what I've been doing.

0:52:47.800 --> 0:52:51.080
<v Speaker 1>And it's that mission of getting justice for Surgey, which

0:52:51.120 --> 0:52:53.440
<v Speaker 1>is what's caused Putin to get so mad at me. Okay,

0:52:53.520 --> 0:52:56.080
<v Speaker 1>let's stay with Putin, Let's pull the lens back. Is

0:52:56.239 --> 0:53:00.320
<v Speaker 1>Putent the strong man anomaly? Or is he a harben

0:53:00.400 --> 0:53:02.040
<v Speaker 1>jur for what's going to happen in the rest of

0:53:02.080 --> 0:53:05.360
<v Speaker 1>the world. I don't think anyone could be as horrible

0:53:05.400 --> 0:53:08.880
<v Speaker 1>as Vladimir Putin's. He sits in a class by himself

0:53:09.719 --> 0:53:15.680
<v Speaker 1>of depravity, of evil, of of he's really as he's

0:53:15.680 --> 0:53:20.719
<v Speaker 1>a psycho psycho killer. And you have a lot of

0:53:20.719 --> 0:53:23.439
<v Speaker 1>people that are authoritarians in different parts of the world,

0:53:23.520 --> 0:53:25.479
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people that ignore a rule of law,

0:53:25.520 --> 0:53:31.800
<v Speaker 1>but nobody is as sort of sadistic and unbelievably mass

0:53:31.880 --> 0:53:36.120
<v Speaker 1>murdering as Putin is right now. Um, And so I

0:53:36.280 --> 0:53:39.120
<v Speaker 1>would I would like to think that he's special and

0:53:39.120 --> 0:53:40.960
<v Speaker 1>that we don't have a lot of other Vladimir Putin's

0:53:41.080 --> 0:53:44.759
<v Speaker 1>percolating and and get gathering their strength to do what

0:53:44.840 --> 0:53:48.520
<v Speaker 1>he's doing. I think that he's he's unique. What do

0:53:48.560 --> 0:53:52.719
<v Speaker 1>you believe his motivation for the invasion of Ukraine was well.

0:53:52.760 --> 0:53:57.319
<v Speaker 1>A lot of learned political scientists and others have all

0:53:57.360 --> 0:54:01.520
<v Speaker 1>sorts of fancy h and analysis which which where they

0:54:01.520 --> 0:54:05.640
<v Speaker 1>suggest that he wants to recreate the Russian Empire or

0:54:05.680 --> 0:54:09.920
<v Speaker 1>the Soviet Union. UH. Some people say that Putin was

0:54:10.000 --> 0:54:14.120
<v Speaker 1>humiliated by the by the fact that we added other

0:54:14.239 --> 0:54:18.480
<v Speaker 1>countries to NATO. UM. There's some people that are saying

0:54:18.520 --> 0:54:23.680
<v Speaker 1>that he's mad because Ukraine want to join the European Union.

0:54:24.680 --> 0:54:26.440
<v Speaker 1>I actually don't believe any of those theories. I think

0:54:26.520 --> 0:54:31.320
<v Speaker 1>the main theory of why he's done what he's done

0:54:32.040 --> 0:54:36.719
<v Speaker 1>is that he's stolen a trillion dollars he and the

0:54:36.760 --> 0:54:40.160
<v Speaker 1>people around him in the last twenty two years. And

0:54:40.239 --> 0:54:45.680
<v Speaker 1>Russia's supposed to be a democracy, and at some point

0:54:45.840 --> 0:54:48.920
<v Speaker 1>people start getting angry that they have bad lives and

0:54:49.200 --> 0:54:51.440
<v Speaker 1>a few, very small number of people have really good lives,

0:54:51.440 --> 0:54:53.759
<v Speaker 1>and that's all taken from the from the other, from

0:54:53.800 --> 0:54:58.279
<v Speaker 1>the population, and so I believe that this is a

0:54:58.320 --> 0:55:02.400
<v Speaker 1>war of distraction. I think the war is purely to

0:55:02.520 --> 0:55:04.879
<v Speaker 1>be at war so he can get all the people

0:55:04.880 --> 0:55:10.440
<v Speaker 1>rebbed up into a flurry of of UH nationalism and

0:55:10.520 --> 0:55:15.600
<v Speaker 1>patriotic fervor, and by the way, you know, whatever disasters

0:55:15.920 --> 0:55:18.360
<v Speaker 1>are going on in Ukraine right now for the Russian military,

0:55:18.840 --> 0:55:21.680
<v Speaker 1>the one big success for Putin is that his approval

0:55:21.760 --> 0:55:25.920
<v Speaker 1>rating skyrocketed. To what degree do you believe those rating

0:55:25.960 --> 0:55:31.919
<v Speaker 1>skyrocketed because of a crackdown on contrary news. I think

0:55:32.000 --> 0:55:37.000
<v Speaker 1>that the crackdown on contrary news actually came after the skyrocketing,

0:55:37.040 --> 0:55:39.879
<v Speaker 1>not before. I think that Scott rocketed literally the day

0:55:39.880 --> 0:55:45.000
<v Speaker 1>he went in. And of course he's always delivering misinformation

0:55:45.040 --> 0:55:48.480
<v Speaker 1>and fake news and all this kind of stuff. But

0:55:48.480 --> 0:55:51.640
<v Speaker 1>but I believe that that this is kind of a

0:55:51.680 --> 0:55:55.040
<v Speaker 1>genuine feeling. Of course, you're right and your question that

0:55:55.160 --> 0:55:58.200
<v Speaker 1>you imply that if people knew the truth, they wouldn't

0:55:58.200 --> 0:56:01.439
<v Speaker 1>be so supportive, and I think that's true. But there's

0:56:01.480 --> 0:56:05.120
<v Speaker 1>something weird going on there where where people almost stopped

0:56:05.160 --> 0:56:09.520
<v Speaker 1>stop ignoring, start they start to ignore the facts, stop

0:56:09.560 --> 0:56:16.680
<v Speaker 1>paying attention to what's true, and they kind of just become, uh,

0:56:16.719 --> 0:56:19.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of their guy is Putin and the

0:56:19.960 --> 0:56:23.360
<v Speaker 1>enemy is the other guy. It almost doesn't matter what

0:56:23.360 --> 0:56:25.920
<v Speaker 1>their guy did anymore. Okay, But on the other side,

0:56:26.080 --> 0:56:29.600
<v Speaker 1>you have Navalni, you have his YouTube videos. Is he

0:56:29.719 --> 0:56:34.240
<v Speaker 1>just appealing to a minority or a growing minority. Alexei

0:56:34.320 --> 0:56:38.160
<v Speaker 1>Navolney started out by appealing to just the young group

0:56:38.239 --> 0:56:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of YouTube users and instagrammers and and Twitter followers and

0:56:44.520 --> 0:56:48.320
<v Speaker 1>so on. But and he did so by by exposing

0:56:48.360 --> 0:56:52.480
<v Speaker 1>corruption of Putin and his cronies, which was very interesting

0:56:52.480 --> 0:56:56.600
<v Speaker 1>and very attractive. But it's it's one of these interesting

0:56:56.640 --> 0:57:00.120
<v Speaker 1>things that that Navalny has risen well beyond that. And

0:57:00.120 --> 0:57:03.040
<v Speaker 1>and the way he rose well beyond that was by

0:57:03.080 --> 0:57:07.640
<v Speaker 1>getting by by basically being victimized when Putin tried to

0:57:07.719 --> 0:57:13.480
<v Speaker 1>kill him with with Nova Chalk in Siberia. All of

0:57:13.520 --> 0:57:16.440
<v Speaker 1>a sudden, the whole world and all people in Russia

0:57:16.640 --> 0:57:20.120
<v Speaker 1>were paying attention and the fact that he survived, and

0:57:20.200 --> 0:57:24.480
<v Speaker 1>everyone loves an underdog, and so he survived the killing attempt.

0:57:25.320 --> 0:57:28.400
<v Speaker 1>He's an a coma for a month, he comes out

0:57:28.400 --> 0:57:33.480
<v Speaker 1>of a coma, he rehabilitates himself back to life, and

0:57:33.480 --> 0:57:36.320
<v Speaker 1>then he returns to Russia, even though they told him

0:57:36.320 --> 0:57:39.400
<v Speaker 1>he would be arrested if he returned to Russia, and

0:57:39.480 --> 0:57:43.880
<v Speaker 1>that elevated him to a presidential level. That the fact

0:57:43.920 --> 0:57:47.600
<v Speaker 1>that a guy would risk his life and his freedom

0:57:47.640 --> 0:57:51.320
<v Speaker 1>for his country put him on par with Putin. And

0:57:51.400 --> 0:57:54.200
<v Speaker 1>so there's a chance. I wouldn't put it too high

0:57:54.240 --> 0:57:57.160
<v Speaker 1>a chance, but there's a chance that if Putin missteps

0:57:57.200 --> 0:57:59.360
<v Speaker 1>badly enough and the whole thing goes up in flames

0:58:01.200 --> 0:58:03.600
<v Speaker 1>and everyone is looking for who should lead Russia next,

0:58:04.720 --> 0:58:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Alexie volney Is is the perfect person who has the profile,

0:58:08.960 --> 0:58:11.800
<v Speaker 1>who could do it. He's like the Russian version of

0:58:11.840 --> 0:58:15.600
<v Speaker 1>Nelson Mandela. Forget the war. If the war wasn't happening,

0:58:16.200 --> 0:58:20.680
<v Speaker 1>would Putin's government ultimately implode or would ultimately pass the

0:58:20.680 --> 0:58:24.080
<v Speaker 1>baton to someone else in the cleptocracy would continue? Well,

0:58:24.120 --> 0:58:27.680
<v Speaker 1>of course, the main objective of everybody who is part

0:58:27.720 --> 0:58:31.880
<v Speaker 1>of the cleptocracy the status quo, to keep it going.

0:58:33.160 --> 0:58:37.120
<v Speaker 1>And that's their game plan. If Putin were to die

0:58:37.200 --> 0:58:41.200
<v Speaker 1>of a stroke tonight, uh, they'd want to get the

0:58:41.240 --> 0:58:43.520
<v Speaker 1>head of the KGB or the head of the g

0:58:43.800 --> 0:58:46.520
<v Speaker 1>r U or some other sort of strong man to

0:58:46.520 --> 0:58:49.800
<v Speaker 1>step in and do the same thing. That's there perfect plan.

0:58:51.040 --> 0:58:53.160
<v Speaker 1>But the trouble with with a place like Russia, it's

0:58:53.160 --> 0:58:55.520
<v Speaker 1>a big country, there's a lot of people, a lot

0:58:55.520 --> 0:58:57.920
<v Speaker 1>of different things can happen. It's very difficult to control.

0:58:58.880 --> 0:59:03.040
<v Speaker 1>And that's one of the reasons that that Putin has

0:59:03.080 --> 0:59:07.360
<v Speaker 1>been so successful as he's figured out the levers of control.

0:59:07.800 --> 0:59:09.680
<v Speaker 1>When it is a successful I means successful and staying

0:59:09.720 --> 0:59:14.960
<v Speaker 1>in power, And so nobody really knows what's going to happen.

0:59:15.600 --> 0:59:18.280
<v Speaker 1>There's some chance that it could be a you know,

0:59:19.080 --> 0:59:22.959
<v Speaker 1>a widespread popular uprising and then navalny comes in. There's

0:59:23.000 --> 0:59:26.720
<v Speaker 1>some chance that it could be a palace coup um

0:59:26.760 --> 0:59:30.800
<v Speaker 1>and some new KGB guy comes in. Um. The most

0:59:30.840 --> 0:59:36.400
<v Speaker 1>likely thing I think is more of the same, as

0:59:36.440 --> 0:59:41.240
<v Speaker 1>that Vladimir Putin doesn't leave power and that he sticks

0:59:41.280 --> 0:59:43.480
<v Speaker 1>around for a very long time. Let's go back to

0:59:43.520 --> 0:59:47.680
<v Speaker 1>the war. How does the war end? If it ends, well,

0:59:47.720 --> 0:59:50.000
<v Speaker 1>there's three ways the work and end well, I mean,

0:59:50.040 --> 0:59:52.480
<v Speaker 1>I know there's two ways to work and end and

0:59:52.600 --> 0:59:58.520
<v Speaker 1>one much more probable outcome, so that they're either Ukraine

0:59:58.520 --> 1:00:02.600
<v Speaker 1>wins the war and that you know, if we had

1:00:02.640 --> 1:00:06.840
<v Speaker 1>talked about this eight weeks ago, nine weeks ago, um,

1:00:07.000 --> 1:00:09.440
<v Speaker 1>nobody everyone would have laughed at that idea. But I

1:00:09.440 --> 1:00:12.400
<v Speaker 1>think there's a not insignificant chance that Ukraine could win

1:00:12.480 --> 1:00:16.200
<v Speaker 1>this war. How do they win the war? Because they

1:00:16.240 --> 1:00:22.200
<v Speaker 1>have now very good equipment coming from the West, Stinger

1:00:22.560 --> 1:00:28.360
<v Speaker 1>Javelin missiles, they've got drones, Turkish drones. Um, they've got

1:00:29.560 --> 1:00:32.080
<v Speaker 1>surface to air missiles, they've got all sorts of interesting

1:00:32.080 --> 1:00:36.560
<v Speaker 1>stuff to help them win the war, and and they're

1:00:36.600 --> 1:00:38.880
<v Speaker 1>doing pretty well. They're killing a lot of Russian soldiers,

1:00:39.400 --> 1:00:41.280
<v Speaker 1>and they're driving Russia back from a lot of places

1:00:41.320 --> 1:00:46.480
<v Speaker 1>that Russia thought they had absolutely nailed down. If for

1:00:46.520 --> 1:00:51.480
<v Speaker 1>some reason, Ukraine succeeds and wins the war, that's the

1:00:51.520 --> 1:00:56.880
<v Speaker 1>one scenario where I think Putin wouldn't last. The Russians,

1:00:57.200 --> 1:01:00.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't think, have a great deal of sympathy for

1:01:00.240 --> 1:01:03.720
<v Speaker 1>human rights victims and in all the terrible things that

1:01:03.760 --> 1:01:09.080
<v Speaker 1>we respond to so so emotionally. But the Russians really

1:01:09.120 --> 1:01:11.920
<v Speaker 1>don't like a loser. They don't like a weak loser.

1:01:13.040 --> 1:01:16.040
<v Speaker 1>And if Putin were to lose this war, one that

1:01:16.080 --> 1:01:18.720
<v Speaker 1>he should absolutely should have won in his mind and

1:01:18.760 --> 1:01:21.120
<v Speaker 1>the mind of the Russian people, they would get rid

1:01:21.160 --> 1:01:24.040
<v Speaker 1>of him. The problem is that even though this this

1:01:24.120 --> 1:01:30.000
<v Speaker 1>scenario um as a chance, it's not a huge chance.

1:01:30.040 --> 1:01:35.400
<v Speaker 1>It's like the other way this war could end is

1:01:36.000 --> 1:01:41.200
<v Speaker 1>something really horrible and unthinkable, which is that Putin wins

1:01:41.200 --> 1:01:46.960
<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine and then he moves on to Moldova or

1:01:48.080 --> 1:01:53.520
<v Speaker 1>more likely Estonia, lat Via, Poland, and he goes to

1:01:53.560 --> 1:01:57.320
<v Speaker 1>these countries and he points his guns at the countries,

1:01:57.360 --> 1:01:59.520
<v Speaker 1>and he points a couple of nukes at Washington and

1:02:00.120 --> 1:02:06.680
<v Speaker 1>Lynn in London and he says, Okay, do you really

1:02:06.680 --> 1:02:11.520
<v Speaker 1>want to have a war with me? And and then

1:02:11.520 --> 1:02:15.080
<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden, the pundits on MSNBC and Fox

1:02:15.080 --> 1:02:18.080
<v Speaker 1>News are all saying, wait a second, why would we

1:02:18.160 --> 1:02:21.120
<v Speaker 1>risk losing twenty million people for the sake of a

1:02:21.160 --> 1:02:25.920
<v Speaker 1>country that most people can't locate on a map. And

1:02:25.920 --> 1:02:31.000
<v Speaker 1>and even worse, um uh, why why do we even

1:02:31.080 --> 1:02:35.560
<v Speaker 1>care about this whole NATO thing? And if Putin were

1:02:35.600 --> 1:02:39.919
<v Speaker 1>to achieve that feeling, then he ends up getting some

1:02:40.120 --> 1:02:44.040
<v Speaker 1>huge peace treaty with a whole bunch of countries that

1:02:44.200 --> 1:02:46.800
<v Speaker 1>never were part of the you know that that have

1:02:46.920 --> 1:02:49.080
<v Speaker 1>been free for the last thirty years, and all of

1:02:49.080 --> 1:02:52.280
<v Speaker 1>a sudden they come under Russia's orbit. That's the that's

1:02:52.320 --> 1:02:56.120
<v Speaker 1>his sort of good case scenario. I put a fift

1:02:56.600 --> 1:03:00.920
<v Speaker 1>chance on that one. So that's that's rough to so far,

1:03:01.200 --> 1:03:05.240
<v Speaker 1>the most likely thing. The scenario. It's just more of

1:03:05.280 --> 1:03:07.960
<v Speaker 1>the same. You know, the Russians don't back down, and

1:03:08.000 --> 1:03:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainians don't back down, and they just keep at it.

1:03:10.240 --> 1:03:14.160
<v Speaker 1>But theoretically, could Putin say oh I took part of

1:03:14.360 --> 1:03:18.640
<v Speaker 1>Ukraine and declare victory and in the war. Theoretically yes,

1:03:19.080 --> 1:03:24.360
<v Speaker 1>but probably no, because the remember Putin is at war

1:03:24.880 --> 1:03:27.960
<v Speaker 1>because he wants his approval ratings to be high. If

1:03:27.960 --> 1:03:31.840
<v Speaker 1>he does peace, his approval ratings go back down. I

1:03:31.880 --> 1:03:33.600
<v Speaker 1>think that the whole purpose of this war is for

1:03:33.640 --> 1:03:36.320
<v Speaker 1>him to stay in power. So in terms of the

1:03:36.400 --> 1:03:41.080
<v Speaker 1>death rate the economic cost, you believe that the public

1:03:41.240 --> 1:03:45.400
<v Speaker 1>is so behind Putin that those are ultimately irrelevant. I

1:03:45.400 --> 1:03:48.480
<v Speaker 1>think I think that's that's the case. What do Tucker

1:03:48.640 --> 1:03:53.640
<v Speaker 1>Carlson and the other people on the right not understand

1:03:53.760 --> 1:03:56.840
<v Speaker 1>that they're either supportive of Putin or they say it's

1:03:56.880 --> 1:03:59.560
<v Speaker 1>not our battle to fight. Well, I have no idea

1:04:00.080 --> 1:04:03.800
<v Speaker 1>what's in the head of Tucker Carlson. Um. I think

1:04:03.880 --> 1:04:07.520
<v Speaker 1>that sometimes people say stuff, outrageous stuff, just so they

1:04:07.520 --> 1:04:12.360
<v Speaker 1>get noticed. And I have no idea why Tucker Carlson

1:04:12.360 --> 1:04:16.560
<v Speaker 1>would say these things. And um uh, you know, it's

1:04:16.680 --> 1:04:19.040
<v Speaker 1>it's very offensive to hear him saying it. But but

1:04:20.200 --> 1:04:25.760
<v Speaker 1>there's absolutely no basis for any anybody in America who

1:04:25.760 --> 1:04:32.280
<v Speaker 1>knows the facts to support Vladimir Putin. So needless to say, misinformation, disinformation.

1:04:32.400 --> 1:04:36.360
<v Speaker 1>It's hard to get the truth and people facts are fungible.

1:04:36.680 --> 1:04:39.640
<v Speaker 1>Could this happen in America? Could we have a strong

1:04:39.720 --> 1:04:43.040
<v Speaker 1>man in America? How closer far we away from this?

1:04:43.160 --> 1:04:45.120
<v Speaker 1>We had a strong man from two thousands sixteen to

1:04:45.120 --> 1:04:47.760
<v Speaker 1>two thousand twenty in the form of Donald Trump, and

1:04:47.800 --> 1:04:49.400
<v Speaker 1>he tried to do a whole bunch of stuff. But

1:04:49.440 --> 1:04:53.720
<v Speaker 1>in America, the institutions held. And that's the difference between

1:04:53.760 --> 1:04:56.240
<v Speaker 1>American and Russia's. We have institutions, we have courts that

1:04:56.320 --> 1:04:58.720
<v Speaker 1>still function, we have a free press, we have a

1:04:58.720 --> 1:05:03.120
<v Speaker 1>democratic process. And when when that stuff was challenged, it

1:05:03.600 --> 1:05:08.120
<v Speaker 1>didn't it didn't break. However, in the ensuing four years

1:05:08.360 --> 1:05:12.560
<v Speaker 1>and the loss of Donald Trump at the Supreme court level,

1:05:12.600 --> 1:05:17.280
<v Speaker 1>the judge level, the right side agitation, it's unclear whether

1:05:17.400 --> 1:05:20.680
<v Speaker 1>those institutions would hold in the future. That's true. But

1:05:20.760 --> 1:05:23.760
<v Speaker 1>at the same time, there wasn't a single journalist arrested

1:05:23.840 --> 1:05:29.480
<v Speaker 1>for challenging Trump. Nobody, no political opponents were killed, Um,

1:05:29.520 --> 1:05:34.080
<v Speaker 1>nobody was poisoned. Uh. You know, and you know, there's

1:05:34.080 --> 1:05:37.280
<v Speaker 1>a long way to go before we have a world

1:05:37.360 --> 1:05:39.560
<v Speaker 1>like the one that I know in Russia. Is there

1:05:39.600 --> 1:05:43.800
<v Speaker 1>a tipping point? Where are people boiled in hot water

1:05:43.960 --> 1:05:46.880
<v Speaker 1>like a lobster or frog? I don't know the answer

1:05:46.880 --> 1:05:48.760
<v Speaker 1>to that question. I don't think anyone knows the answer

1:05:48.800 --> 1:05:52.640
<v Speaker 1>to that question. UM. I think that it's uh. We've

1:05:52.640 --> 1:05:56.000
<v Speaker 1>seen the frog scenario play. It's out out in Russia.

1:05:56.040 --> 1:05:58.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean it didn't start this way. It got worse

1:05:58.280 --> 1:06:00.640
<v Speaker 1>and worse and worse. The same thing in Hong Kong.

1:06:01.080 --> 1:06:05.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, the Chinese slowly turned up the temperature. And

1:06:05.320 --> 1:06:07.480
<v Speaker 1>so hard to say what's going to happen in America?

1:06:07.640 --> 1:06:11.840
<v Speaker 1>Now you live in London, which was certainly the European

1:06:11.920 --> 1:06:19.200
<v Speaker 1>financial at center, and Brexit happened. Many people believe online misinformation,

1:06:19.240 --> 1:06:23.640
<v Speaker 1>disinformation from Russia swung that election. Do you believe that

1:06:23.800 --> 1:06:27.360
<v Speaker 1>hogwash too or possible? Well? So what I what I

1:06:27.400 --> 1:06:32.800
<v Speaker 1>know for a fact is that Vladimir Putin, UM, he

1:06:32.840 --> 1:06:36.120
<v Speaker 1>didn't want this. Um. He doesn't like the European Union.

1:06:37.160 --> 1:06:39.000
<v Speaker 1>He doesn't like the European Union because he likes to

1:06:39.000 --> 1:06:42.760
<v Speaker 1>pick off one country versus another. And so when he

1:06:42.800 --> 1:06:48.400
<v Speaker 1>saw the British arguing UH to get rid of the

1:06:48.440 --> 1:06:50.960
<v Speaker 1>European to get out of the European Union, he loved

1:06:50.960 --> 1:06:56.120
<v Speaker 1>that and he loved that, and surely he participated using

1:06:56.640 --> 1:06:59.480
<v Speaker 1>trolls and bots and all that kind of stuff to

1:06:59.560 --> 1:07:03.280
<v Speaker 1>make this thing happened. Did was that enough to tip

1:07:03.360 --> 1:07:08.120
<v Speaker 1>the balance or was it just on the margin. I

1:07:08.160 --> 1:07:11.040
<v Speaker 1>don't know the answer. A number of people have called

1:07:11.120 --> 1:07:15.720
<v Speaker 1>for a Mueller type of investigation here, not that Mueller

1:07:15.760 --> 1:07:19.520
<v Speaker 1>actually succeeded in doing anything in America. Um, but that

1:07:19.640 --> 1:07:23.040
<v Speaker 1>never happened. And so to this day we have no

1:07:23.040 --> 1:07:28.880
<v Speaker 1>no definitive facts about whether, ah, whether it was the

1:07:28.960 --> 1:07:35.520
<v Speaker 1>Russians maturely affected the outcome of this, of this referendum.

1:07:35.640 --> 1:07:37.919
<v Speaker 1>And what I can say, and I know this very

1:07:38.000 --> 1:07:39.920
<v Speaker 1>clearly living here, is that there are some people that

1:07:39.960 --> 1:07:42.040
<v Speaker 1>are very passionate about wanting to leave that had nothing

1:07:42.080 --> 1:07:45.560
<v Speaker 1>to do with Russia. They just didn't like the European Union. Okay,

1:07:45.600 --> 1:07:47.720
<v Speaker 1>this is you know, there are all sorts of issue

1:07:48.240 --> 1:07:53.080
<v Speaker 1>just today with Northern Ireland and visas also related to

1:07:53.120 --> 1:07:58.000
<v Speaker 1>the Ukraine crisis. Does the UK ultimately find its feet

1:07:58.000 --> 1:07:59.960
<v Speaker 1>and clear sailing or is this the beginning of the

1:08:00.080 --> 1:08:03.720
<v Speaker 1>large decline? Well, I'm I don't write off any of

1:08:03.760 --> 1:08:07.920
<v Speaker 1>our great democracies. Um. I mean, there's all sorts of

1:08:07.960 --> 1:08:11.360
<v Speaker 1>problems in in the UK, there's problems in the United States,

1:08:12.080 --> 1:08:16.160
<v Speaker 1>problems in France, problems in all sorts of places. But um,

1:08:16.200 --> 1:08:19.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm so far away from writing off the idea that

1:08:19.840 --> 1:08:22.639
<v Speaker 1>we have. Um, you know that that are that are

1:08:23.120 --> 1:08:25.840
<v Speaker 1>systems are all gonna break down and implode. I think

1:08:25.840 --> 1:08:29.520
<v Speaker 1>that there's there's ugliness, but at the same time, UM,

1:08:29.840 --> 1:08:31.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of stuff that still works pretty well. Now,

1:08:31.880 --> 1:08:37.240
<v Speaker 1>there are many commentators say that economically, despite the posing

1:08:37.600 --> 1:08:42.480
<v Speaker 1>of Putin, it is a very small country that ultimately

1:08:42.520 --> 1:08:45.760
<v Speaker 1>has problems paying bills. Now we have the sanctions. Will

1:08:45.880 --> 1:08:51.400
<v Speaker 1>these economic pressures affect Russia and possibly lead to the

1:08:51.520 --> 1:08:54.320
<v Speaker 1>downfall of Putin? Or is the fact that he has

1:08:54.360 --> 1:08:58.240
<v Speaker 1>such a grip on the government it could never happen. Well,

1:08:58.280 --> 1:09:00.559
<v Speaker 1>it becomes a much more brittle situation. And the way

1:09:00.560 --> 1:09:04.280
<v Speaker 1>he's managed in so I believe that that you know,

1:09:04.360 --> 1:09:08.760
<v Speaker 1>he's a specialist in avoiding coups, he's a specialist in

1:09:08.760 --> 1:09:15.960
<v Speaker 1>in repressing his society and more likely than not his

1:09:16.040 --> 1:09:20.479
<v Speaker 1>skills that staying in power will succeed. Having said that,

1:09:21.680 --> 1:09:25.800
<v Speaker 1>the situation that he's created with this invasion, with the sanctions,

1:09:25.800 --> 1:09:29.559
<v Speaker 1>with the economic collapse, it's like being in a in

1:09:29.600 --> 1:09:32.840
<v Speaker 1>a forest after a really hot summer, and there's all

1:09:32.840 --> 1:09:38.240
<v Speaker 1>sorts of dry leaves on the ground, and at any point,

1:09:38.840 --> 1:09:41.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, if if a match hits the right place,

1:09:41.200 --> 1:09:43.120
<v Speaker 1>the whole forest could go up in flames. And I

1:09:43.160 --> 1:09:47.000
<v Speaker 1>think that that's the situation he's facing right now, and

1:09:47.080 --> 1:09:50.360
<v Speaker 1>he's hoping that doesn't happen and taking all sorts of

1:09:50.400 --> 1:09:52.640
<v Speaker 1>precautions trying to prevent it from happening. But at the

1:09:52.680 --> 1:09:56.400
<v Speaker 1>end of the day, it's hard to predict. And he's created,

1:09:56.840 --> 1:09:59.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, a lot of a lot of fuel to

1:09:59.439 --> 1:10:03.920
<v Speaker 1>burn um with all this unhappiness and hardship that he's

1:10:04.080 --> 1:10:07.240
<v Speaker 1>that's coming from all that his his terrible behavior. They

1:10:07.280 --> 1:10:09.800
<v Speaker 1>just mentioned the economy and the rest of the world.

1:10:09.880 --> 1:10:12.439
<v Speaker 1>We think we know what's going on. The Thirteen Times

1:10:12.439 --> 1:10:15.240
<v Speaker 1>owns that this and that. What does the rest of

1:10:15.280 --> 1:10:20.080
<v Speaker 1>the world not understand about Russia and putin Well, the

1:10:20.080 --> 1:10:22.280
<v Speaker 1>main thing that people don't understand is that he is

1:10:22.320 --> 1:10:26.439
<v Speaker 1>a criminal. This is not the actions of a of

1:10:26.520 --> 1:10:30.000
<v Speaker 1>a leader of a sovereign state. Too many people treat

1:10:30.120 --> 1:10:34.080
<v Speaker 1>him like he's got some kind of national interests, that

1:10:34.160 --> 1:10:38.880
<v Speaker 1>he's he that he somehow is doing this for some

1:10:39.040 --> 1:10:42.799
<v Speaker 1>pride or legacy. He has no interest in pride or legacy.

1:10:42.880 --> 1:10:46.360
<v Speaker 1>All he is trying to do is keep his money,

1:10:46.640 --> 1:10:49.400
<v Speaker 1>stay out of jail, and stay alive. And the best

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<v Speaker 1>way to do that is by distracting people. And the

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<v Speaker 1>best way of distracting people is by being in war.

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<v Speaker 1>Not just starting a war, but being in a war.

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<v Speaker 1>You've listening to Bill Browder, author of Red Notice and

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<v Speaker 1>Freezing Order. I highly recommend those books. They're riveting in

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<v Speaker 1>their own right, never mind being so timely in light

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<v Speaker 1>of what's going on in Russia and Ukraine. Girl, I

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<v Speaker 1>want to thank you for taking the time speak to

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<v Speaker 1>my audience today. Thank you until next time. This is

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<v Speaker 1>Bob Leftstads