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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's going for the winds.

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Speaker 3: All right. Here we go.

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Speaker 4: Throwing.

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Speaker 1: We're saying it's a catch touchdown, that's all.

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Speaker 3: See.

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Speaker 1: Most gamblers, when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 1: that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kabaki you.

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Speaker 5: Want to pa.

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Speaker 1: And we are way Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 4: This is your NFL Week ten betting preview with odds

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Speaker 4: courtesy of bet MGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast. I'm joined as always by my Action

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Speaker 4: Network colleague, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: What's going on, man, Not.

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Speaker 3: Much, just grinding away, adding college basketball to the mix.

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Speaker 3: So there's no sleep in sight until April. Winning Week

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Speaker 3: ten small, Winning Week ten should have been a huge

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Speaker 3: Winning Week ten, But for the second week in a row,

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Speaker 3: I somehow beat it close by seven points and lost

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Speaker 3: to a backup quarterback. And I've net that it's only

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Speaker 3: had to me one time prior to the season, and

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Speaker 3: it happened two weeks in a row this year. Correctly

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Speaker 3: projected the star quarterback is out, the star receiver is out,

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Speaker 3: get plus two and a half both weeks. Line closes

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Speaker 3: at minus four and a half minus five both weeks

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Speaker 3: and lose to Cooper Rush and Colt McCoy. So there's

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Speaker 3: nothing I could do about it. It was my biggest

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Speaker 3: play by far, and I got a lot down. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I could have middled it, but I mean I've beat

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Speaker 3: the close by seven points. So just a couple of

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Speaker 3: fluky losses. What are you gonna do about it? But

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Speaker 3: you got the sweep, which is the most important thing

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Speaker 3: was that it was a big week for the podcast

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Speaker 3: and all the picks that we give here, we're now

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Speaker 3: on all the picks we give out. It's ten a week,

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Speaker 3: So we get our six pack, two totals and two teasers.

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Speaker 3: We're now fifty two to thirty seven and one fifty

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Speaker 3: eight and a half percent, and that's with some no

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Speaker 3: overtime lock at all, and these backup quarterbacks beating us

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Speaker 3: a couple of times. And then we had our money

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Speaker 3: on underdog parlay again. So we're four and five on

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Speaker 3: the season there, which is ridiculous. So let's uh, I

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Speaker 3: think we're fiving four, five and four. You hit more

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Speaker 3: than we've missed. Yeah, so let's keep it rolling. You know,

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Speaker 3: it's been nice to give winners. But as I always say,

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Speaker 3: who cares. We're on the week ten.

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Speaker 4: Let's get it cracking, all right, So we'll get into

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Speaker 4: our Thursday night football preview. Then we'll give out this

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Speaker 4: week's six pack and try to stay high and all

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Speaker 4: that good stuff.

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Speaker 1: But before we kick things off, a couple of quick reminders.

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Speaker 4: First, if you plan to bet on any sport ever

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Speaker 4: and you still haven't downloaded the free, award winning Action

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Speaker 4: Network app.

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Speaker 1: What are you doing?

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Speaker 4: It's got betting tools, it lets you shot for the

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Speaker 4: best lines, it's got analysis for me, Stucky and the

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Speaker 4: whole Action Network team, and most importantly, it lets you

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Speaker 4: track every bet that's you make. Second, if you need

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Speaker 4: to reference our Sunday six Pack picks anytime, all you

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Speaker 4: have to do is use the Action app and follow

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Speaker 4: Sunday six Pack because we use that account to track

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Speaker 4: those picks.

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Speaker 1: There every Friday.

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Speaker 4: And finally, for any listeners interested in betting on the

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Speaker 4: NBA or playing NBA Fantasy this season, definitely check out

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Speaker 4: our Buckets podcast feature in our Action Network colleagues, Brandon

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Speaker 4: Anderson Raheem Palmer, plus veteran NBA journalist Matt Moore and

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Speaker 4: fantasy expert Adam Hoffler. These guys drop new episodes three

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Speaker 4: or four times per week, so check out the Buckets

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Speaker 4: podcast this season if you're getting down on any NBA action.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the Thursday night football soup.

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Speaker 3: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 5: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 1: So we have the Baltimore Ravens.

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Speaker 4: Your Baltimore Ravens going to Miami steven and a half

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Speaker 4: point favorites. The totals forty six and a half. I

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Speaker 4: just want to start by saying, like you usually say, don't.

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Speaker 1: Bet on Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 4: I was about to not bet on Thursday Night football

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Speaker 4: last week, but I decided to go with a Michael

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Speaker 4: Carter under fifty and a half rushing.

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Speaker 1: Yards, and I won the bet by a yard and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 4: But it was the most miserable sweat of all time

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Speaker 4: because they were running him on like the last possession

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Speaker 4: down like like three scores or two scores whatever it

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Speaker 4: ended up being, when they should have just been throwing

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Speaker 4: every place. So it was brutal, which just reminded me

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Speaker 4: of why I do not like betting Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: So I kind of heard you in my ear like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: stay away if you can. But what do you think

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Speaker 1: it is?

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Speaker 4: Ravens Dolphins game here? Raven's coming off of a game

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Speaker 4: where they played a lot of snaps on offense. I

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Speaker 4: think had the ball for forty six minutes and rank

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Speaker 4: Ronaldolphin ninety eight plays. So curious is to hear if

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Speaker 4: you think that's gonna have any impact on the short

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Speaker 4: week over city.

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Speaker 3: Baby, I gotta keep my Ravens. That was my total

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Speaker 3: last week over in that game. My Ravens on the

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Speaker 3: Fetu streak is alive. I did bet this game. I

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Speaker 3: have the Ravens and a teaser. But before I get

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Speaker 3: to that, how about them Dolphins. It's given all the

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Speaker 3: survivor carnage last week, we both survived into this week

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Speaker 3: and the Dolphins came through with Prissette against Tyrod Taylor.

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Speaker 3: Shout to Tyrod Taylor for some of the most uncharacteristic picks,

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Speaker 3: but it's just not like him at all. That pick

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Speaker 3: at the end of the half where he just flipped

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Speaker 3: it up and I mean that was so not like him. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so we survived. We'll get to our survivor later on too.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I make this line right around seven ish.

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Speaker 3: Now it's in doubt whether Tua is going to play

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Speaker 3: or not. They said they're gonna try him. He's gonna

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Speaker 3: be active, but they're gonna see how he throws before

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Speaker 3: the game, and if he's good, then we'll go.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think I would probably lean towards now own a

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Speaker 3: short week, but no idea. He's gonna be dressed and active.

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Speaker 3: But I'm expecting Brissette. So two has been a little

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Speaker 3: better of late. So I do think that there's a

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Speaker 3: slight drop off between to A and Brissette before the

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Speaker 3: you know, earlier this season, I didn't think there was

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Speaker 3: any at all. But I do think to A is

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Speaker 3: a little better at this point after what we've seen

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Speaker 3: over the past few weeks. The biggest problem with the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins is their offensive line. It's one of the worst

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Speaker 3: in the NFL. They also, you know, their defense has

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Speaker 3: not been great. They can't stop the run. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that they have the speed to really contain Lamar

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Speaker 3: here and what I mentioned last week after the bye,

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Speaker 3: Raven's one of the best staffs in the NFL. You

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Speaker 3: saw this last week with the Ravens offense. A little

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Speaker 3: bit of a slow start out of the buy, which

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Speaker 3: you see sometimes, but this Ravens offense early in the year,

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Speaker 3: you know, you you lose your your stud all pro tackle, right,

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Speaker 3: you have injuries across the offensive line. You have all

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Speaker 3: of your backs tear the rac like, you have so

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Speaker 3: many injury right, and then you're trying to and you're

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Speaker 3: this is a run based offense and they've been throwing

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Speaker 3: it a lot more this year, but you have running

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Speaker 3: backs who have to just get comfortable with the mesh

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Speaker 3: point in Lamar. You have new offensive line moving all

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Speaker 3: over the place. Nick Boyle was out so important to

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Speaker 3: the run game. You have received Bateman as finally, and

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Speaker 3: Watkins has been there. I mean, there are so many

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Speaker 3: moving pieces to this offense as they were trying to adjust.

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Speaker 3: So I think the buy really served them well. And

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Speaker 3: you're going to see this offense just explode here in

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Speaker 3: the second half. So I do Nick wild and end

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Speaker 3: up playing last week. I do expect him to play

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Speaker 3: this week, and I don't think that the Ravens will

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Speaker 3: have any issues moving the ball. Oddoy this means nothing,

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Speaker 3: but it's so crazy. Dolphins fans will know this. The

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Speaker 3: Ravens have owned the Dolphins. I mean you go back

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Speaker 3: to playoffs in the two thousands, just Ed reed picks,

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Speaker 3: and I mean if they have, I think they won

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Speaker 3: fifty nine nothing to open the season against the Dolphins

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Speaker 3: A couple of years ago. John Harbell's nine to zero

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Speaker 3: against the spread against the Dolphins. I mean what I

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Speaker 3: mean that? What does that mean?

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Speaker 4: Now?

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Speaker 3: Nothing? But uh, you know I make this spread in

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Speaker 3: total pretty spot on. You know, the Ravens are seven

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Speaker 3: and a half point favorite. It's a perfect teaser piece

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Speaker 3: to tease them down to one and a half. The

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Speaker 3: defense are a bad football team. Thought that coming into

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Speaker 3: this year. If one win over the Texans and a

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Speaker 3: fluke win over the Patriots start the year, that's it.

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Speaker 3: I think the Ravens should win this game. Thursday night

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Speaker 3: weirdness on a short week. Maybe it makes this a

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Speaker 3: little closer. I wouldn't lay over a touchdown here, but

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Speaker 3: I think it's a good teaser spot for the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: I personally pair them with the Raiders getting them over eight.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk about that game later.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this that's spot on with kind of

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Speaker 4: teasing the Ravens down here. You expect them to be

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Speaker 4: able to win the game, but I think it's a

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Speaker 4: higher variance game in terms of how it plays out.

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Speaker 1: Ultimately, I think the Ravens find a way to win.

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Speaker 4: But I mean, you could have the offense a little

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Speaker 4: gas after playing all those plays, but at the same time,

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Speaker 4: your defense got to kind of chill out and it

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Speaker 4: didn't have to be on the field quite as much.

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Speaker 4: You know, are there issues in it in a kick

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Speaker 4: return game and they got one taken to the house

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Speaker 4: on them. That a kick coverage team, I should say.

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Speaker 4: And then for the Dolphins, I mean, yeah, you have this.

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Speaker 4: You have the quarterback, probably the backup quarterback or some

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Speaker 4: uncertainty at quarterback on a short week. Both of these

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Speaker 4: teams play a lot of man coverage, which I think

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Speaker 4: kind of increases the variants.

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Speaker 1: In a game because you can hit some big plays.

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Speaker 4: Against him, or it could be one of those games

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Speaker 4: where the coverage is tight, you know, out of third

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Speaker 4: down stops and we get a lot of punts.

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Speaker 1: So this is one I almost certainly will be staying away.

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Speaker 4: I don't mind the teaser at all, but will be

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Speaker 4: staying away from probably maybe of a prop or something,

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Speaker 4: but yeah, that's the only thing I'm looking at. Just

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Speaker 4: I think high variants because of all the man coverage

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Speaker 4: the teams play.

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Speaker 3: You should have two fresh bodies though that the offense

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Speaker 3: is getting back here. Samley Watkins is a full participant

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Speaker 3: in practice, and I think Nick Boyle is going to

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Speaker 3: play as well. They're both officially listed as questionable, but

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Speaker 3: given their practice status and some of the things I'm hearing,

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Speaker 3: I think both will play. Yeah, this is the game

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Speaker 3: where the Ravens are gonna bring pressure, bring buss as

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Speaker 3: they always do, and that they should be able to

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Speaker 3: do that with success here against this offensive line and

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Speaker 3: we're set back there. So yeah, I'm sure maybe it'll

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Speaker 3: take a couple of shots and if they hit them,

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Speaker 3: it can keep it close and keep this in doubt.

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Speaker 3: But without flukes, raven should win this game. But I

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Speaker 3: think spreading total about right.

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Speaker 4: All right, that's going to wrap it up for our

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Speaker 4: Thursday night football preview. All right, So that's gonna wrap

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Speaker 4: up our Thursday night football preview. Ravens going to Miami

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Speaker 4: to face the Dolphins again. Seven and a half point

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Speaker 4: favorites to total at forty six.

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Speaker 1: And a half. Now let's give to people what they want.

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Speaker 4: Let's crack open a week ten Sunday six pack presented

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Speaker 4: by our friends at the Athletic Brewing.

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Speaker 1: Company Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, So I do have a nice little wead

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Speaker 4: here in the six packs. So time to get to work.

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Speaker 4: I got the first pick this week, so I'll started

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Speaker 4: off with the first pick in the Week ten Sunday

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Speaker 4: six pack by going with the Seattle Seahawks plus three

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Speaker 4: and a half at the Green Bay Packers. I actually

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Speaker 4: got this at five. It's down at three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Obviously.

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Speaker 4: The big news here Russell Wilson cleared for Seattle, Aaron

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Speaker 4: Rodgers iffy for the Green Bay Packers. He's not going

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Speaker 4: to practice all week so he can be cleared by Saturday.

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Speaker 4: He did weave kind of some doubt as to whether

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Speaker 4: he'd play even if he did get cleared, you know,

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Speaker 4: just with the with his health issues. You know, maybe

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Speaker 4: you know we've seen it before where Cam Newton I

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Speaker 4: think came back off COVID and it was just really

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Speaker 4: sluggish in his first game back.

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Speaker 1: So you're talking about you know, no practice.

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Speaker 4: You know, obviously Rogers will be ready mentally, but no

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Speaker 4: telling how the you know what the physical of COVID

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Speaker 4: nineteen will be on him as he as he comes back,

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Speaker 4: you know, with no week of practice. So I kind

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Speaker 4: of like the you know, the possibility of getting Rogers out,

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Speaker 4: you know, I don't think he's baked into the line

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Speaker 4: as much as it should be. But also just like

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Speaker 4: Seattle in this spot anyway, Russell Wilson as a road

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Speaker 4: dog twenty two and eleven with two pushes, sixty six

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Speaker 4: percent against the spread in his career. Seattle's five and

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Speaker 4: two on the road off of by under Pete Carroll

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Speaker 4: against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Seattle's been a slightly better team.

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Speaker 4: I know green Bay has dealt with some injuries, but

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Speaker 4: they're still dealing with injuries. Seattle's twelfth in DVOA. Overall,

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Speaker 4: green Bay is fifteen, So pretty even we match game. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: you're gonna give the Packers, you know, some home field

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Speaker 4: at Lambeau. But Russell Wilson, you know, he can kind

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Speaker 4: of escape pressure and do some you know, convert big

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Speaker 4: third downs, make cutch plays. I don't worry about Seattle

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Speaker 4: in this spot as much as I worry about some

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Speaker 4: other teams, especially with I think you're gonna get one

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Speaker 4: of Seattle's better games.

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Speaker 1: You know, they know they have to kind of claw

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Speaker 1: back into this playoff rate.

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Speaker 4: They're coming off a bye, They've had time to prepare,

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Speaker 4: and Green Bay might get one of their worst games

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Speaker 4: just given you know, love gonna take all the reps

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Speaker 4: of quarterback this week. They kind of built up a

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Speaker 4: nice little weed over the you know, the first half

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Speaker 4: of the season in that NFC North And also a

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Speaker 4: specific matchup that I think the Packers will struggle with

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Speaker 4: is slowing down Lockett in Metcalf. The Packers are outside

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Speaker 4: the top twenty in DVOA against number one and number

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Speaker 4: two wide receivers, which you know you're facing Seattle. You

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Speaker 4: got to be able to take away at least one

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Speaker 4: of those guys, and if not both, and you know,

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Speaker 4: green Bay twenty fourth against number ones, twenty seventh against

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Speaker 4: number two's, that doesn't bode well for their defense.

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Speaker 1: I think Russell Wilson keeps it close. I love getting

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Speaker 1: the hook.

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Speaker 4: I mean, even if Rogers is fully healthy and there's nothing,

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Speaker 4: no kind of shenanigans going on with the with the

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Speaker 4: vaccination status and whatnot. I still think Seattle, if they

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Speaker 4: lose this game, it's by a field goal. I mean,

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Speaker 4: this is kind of Seattle's m O, right, Like they're

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Speaker 4: not going to get blown out. They're gonna lose these

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Speaker 4: like wrenching games. But I think the Seada is a

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Speaker 4: pretty good chance to win in winning the game, pulling

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Speaker 4: off the upistide here. So Seattle plus three and a

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Speaker 4: half in lambeall.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it. I do expect Rogers to play,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, there's got to be an impact from all

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Speaker 3: week doing just conferences via video. You know, Seahawks off

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Speaker 3: a bye here with Wilson back. I think the Packers

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Speaker 3: defense has been overperforming with some of these injuries, so

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Speaker 3: I think that there's some regression coming in that department,

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Speaker 3: and this is the perfect offense to take advantage with

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Speaker 3: Wilson back in the mix. So I think that this

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Speaker 3: is a good spot to back Seattle. I have a

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Speaker 3: different take on how I will be back then, so

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Speaker 3: I'll save it for our future section. Little teaser there,

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Speaker 3: but I'll move on to my first pick. So for

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Speaker 3: my first pick and the second overall pick in the

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus

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Speaker 3: ten and a half against the Arizona Cardinals. Another cliff

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Speaker 3: fade here. Now here's the thing. Maybe this isn't a

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Speaker 3: good thing, but I think there's a decent chance that

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Speaker 3: Kyler Murray doesn't play again, Hopkins maybe not playing again.

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Speaker 3: Aj Green still on the COVID list. You think it'll

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Speaker 3: be without all three of them again. Cole McCoy played

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Speaker 3: really well last week. He's a middling average backup in

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Speaker 3: his mid thirties. He's mediocre. There's a huge downgraide between

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Speaker 3: him and Kyler Murray. That's pretty obvious. Obviously last week

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Speaker 3: didn't show that. But look, this Cardinals team has been

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Speaker 3: impressive this year. You have to be impressed with them.

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Speaker 3: I just don't. But I don't have them as a

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Speaker 3: top five team. I don't think they're an elite team.

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Speaker 3: They've have a lot of regression coming their way. And

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Speaker 3: I'll explain in a couple of ways here. They've been

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Speaker 3: in a number of these games were early on in

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Speaker 3: the first quarter, and their weakness is their run defense.

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Speaker 3: They can't they cannot defend the run at all. But

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Speaker 3: they get out to they jump out to these leads

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Speaker 3: and their pass rush. The past, defense has been a

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Speaker 3: little better and it's a favorable game script for them.

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Speaker 3: And the reason they've been able to do that these

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Speaker 3: fumbles in the first quarter, the personal fouls to get

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Speaker 3: first outs, fourth down variants. Here's some examples. The Cardinals

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Speaker 3: lead the NFL in fumbles per game one point eight

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Speaker 3: fumbles per game. They are second in the NFL, and

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Speaker 3: fumbles lost per game second fewest point two. They're fumbling

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Speaker 3: one point eight times per game, losing only point two

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Speaker 3: per game. Cardinals opponents are also fumbling one point eight

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Speaker 3: times per game, the second highest the NFL. The opponents

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Speaker 3: are losing one point one that's most in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: Put another way, the Cardinals and their opponents have each

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Speaker 3: fumbled sixteen times. The Cardinals have lost two two eight

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Speaker 3: percent and their opponents have lost ten sixty four percent.

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Speaker 3: So they've lost two of sixteen, their opponents have lost

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Speaker 3: ten of sixteen. And these have all come earl like

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Speaker 3: last week. It gets the forty Niners three fumbles in

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Speaker 3: the first quarter, they recover them all. I don't know

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Speaker 3: how the forty Downers didn't recover one that was right.

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Speaker 3: And there's also a made up personal foul and a

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Speaker 3: face mask from third and long stop. All of them

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Speaker 3: led to points for the Cardinals or took points off

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Speaker 3: the board for the forty nine Ers all of a sudden,

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Speaker 3: you know, fourteen twenty one nothing. It's a complete different,

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Speaker 3: same thing up in the Browns. Four fumbles in the

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Speaker 3: first quarter, Cardinals recover them all, a couple of personal fouls.

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Speaker 3: Let's let's look at fourth downs. Arizona eight of nine

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Speaker 3: on fourth downs this year eighty nine percent leads the NFL.

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Speaker 3: Their opponents six of twenty thirty percent. I mean these

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Speaker 3: are fourth down conversus swing entire games eight of a

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Speaker 3: ninety percent versus thirty percent. Cardinals third down d also

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Speaker 3: thirty one point seven percent. I think the regression's coming there.

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Speaker 3: This is a Cardinals deep. This is a Cardinals defense

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Speaker 3: number one that's allowing four point eight yards per rush,

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Speaker 3: that second worst in the NFL. Their defense. So I

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Speaker 3: think the Panthers are gonna go heavy.

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Speaker 4: Run here.

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Speaker 3: McCaffrey's back. Thankfully, I know for a fact PJ. Walker

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Speaker 3: is gonna play here. I bet the Panthers last week,

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Speaker 3: under the assumption that Donald will not play, I would

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Speaker 3: not have taken the Panthers that Donald would have played

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Speaker 3: PC's go against the Patriots. I thought he was out.

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Speaker 3: Panthers D played really well and Donald basically just lost

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Speaker 3: in that game. But Donald's out now, so I'll get PJ.

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Speaker 3: Walker's I won't have Donald. I don't think there's much

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Speaker 3: of a drop off. I don't think there's any drop off.

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Speaker 3: I'd rather have PJ. Walker here. But look at this

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Speaker 3: Cardinals defense second and EPA per play, but they're fourteenth

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Speaker 3: and success rate twenty third on early down success rate

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Speaker 3: nineteenth and drop back success rate on early downs twenty second,

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Speaker 3: and rush success rate in early downs. I mean this

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Speaker 3: is and then on you know, you look at third

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Speaker 3: downs negative point five four to eight EPA per play.

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Speaker 3: On late downs, the next best is negative point three

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Speaker 3: to five. It's not sustainable. It speaks to third downagresson

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Speaker 3: co all these fourth down stops that they're getting. So

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00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,399
Speaker 3: there's a lot of regression coming in many departments for

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Speaker 3: the Cardinals. You know, this is also a similar spot

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Speaker 3: to what we saw with the Cowboys. You know, I

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Speaker 3: lost on both. They go to Minnesota with their backup,

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Speaker 3: huge team effort on the road, you get that win

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Speaker 3: that everyone did think you were gonna get you come

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Speaker 3: home and your ten point favorites. This is actually the

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Speaker 3: same exact spot. And even if Mary's back, it's kind

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Speaker 3: of like a little letdown. You're playing a bad team

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Speaker 3: and you come out a little flat. And look at

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys did against the Broncos. They were down thirty

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Speaker 3: one nothing at one point in that game. So potential

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Speaker 3: flap spot here. But I think, like I said, I

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Speaker 3: think there's a good chance Hopkins, Mary Green, they all

404
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Speaker 3: could miss. But even if they're in, I think ten

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Speaker 3: and a half is too many. And you know, I

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Speaker 3: think that the Panthers are gonna be able to run

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Speaker 3: the ball, They're gonna be able to get pressure. I

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Speaker 3: think they could contain Mary on the outside, and he's

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Speaker 3: not going to be fully mobile. That's another thing. If

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Speaker 3: he's in, I don't think that he's going to be

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent mobile here. So I think the Panthers,

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Speaker 3: who are playing for their playoff lives, right Cardinal's kind

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Speaker 3: of fat and happy right now. Panthers win this game.

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Speaker 3: If you assume the Falcons lose to the Cowboys, they

415
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Speaker 3: move into the seventh spot in the NFC playoffs. So

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Speaker 3: I think you get their best effort here with PJ. Wall,

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Speaker 3: I don't have to worry about Donald turning it over.

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00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 3: I hate Donald. This is just too many points. I

419
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 3: think the Panthers will have success running the ball. I

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00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 3: think their defense will hold up even if we get

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Speaker 3: you know, unlimited Murray and Hopkins comes back. But if not,

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Speaker 3: this line will drop and I'll be in a better position.

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Speaker 3: And then I have to assulk when Colt McCoy beat

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Speaker 3: me by seventeen. But so give me the Panthers.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if you've got a chance to see

426
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 4: that that Kanye West interview on Drink Champs, but it

427
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 4: is really good. But the funniest thing was they add

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Speaker 4: this counter at the bottom where every time he name

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Speaker 4: dropped like a celeb that he hangs out or talks to,

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Speaker 4: they just add one to the counter.

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Speaker 1: And like, I feel like we need that for you,

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Speaker 1: fading Cliff on this podcast, right, Cliff Kingsbury, you backed

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Speaker 1: them in.

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Speaker 4: Week one, and I don't think you've backed them since,

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Speaker 4: and I think you've bet against them pretty much almost

436
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:00,640
Speaker 4: like at.

437
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: Least half the other weeks. So we definitely need that.

438
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think listen, I think the Panthers have

439
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,679
Speaker 4: an edge on defense because they have four good cornerbacks.

440
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 4: And I talked about that last week when I liked

441
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 4: the under in the game, you know with the Patriots

442
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 4: that hey, it's Deefine Gilmour here, there's four really good

443
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 4: cornerbacks because Taylor the rookie was playing well. You know,

444
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 4: Buye is playing well as a nickelback, Dante Jackson's playing well.

445
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: So yead Gilmour to that.

446
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,000
Speaker 4: The Cardinals are one of those teams that went healthy. Uh,

447
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 4: they're gonna go at you four receivers. Now, they didn't

448
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,280
Speaker 4: change the offense too much because I think you know

449
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: they were when of the backup tight ends was out

450
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 4: as well, so they kind of stayed with it with

451
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 4: Antwine Wesley and there at wide receiver. But either way,

452
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 4: the Panthers can shut down his Cardinal offense from you know,

453
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 4: the perspective of you know, being able to man up,

454
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 4: being able to cover if they if they put U

455
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 4: zones or whatever or not. So it would be a

456
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 4: real struggle if Colt McCoy were in there instead of

457
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 4: Kyro because I think the best thing that we would

458
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 4: bring in this situation is Carolina. You know, they could

459
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 4: man up. But if they man up, you know that

460
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 4: they're gonna have to spy or just something like that.

461
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 4: It's easier for quarterbacks to run. They're gonna need that

462
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 4: rushing ability from Kiwer With how well their secondary can

463
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 4: match up with Arizona, I mean, I think out of

464
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 4: all the secondaries in the league, this is one of

465
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 4: the better.

466
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: This is one of the tougher matchups for Arizona, So

467
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 1: I actually agree with this.

468
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, And also keep in mind Buddha Baker in concussion

469
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 3: protocol with a knee injury, didn't practice today. Rondel Moore

470
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 3: in concussion protocol with a neck injury didn't practice today.

471
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a beat up Arizona team, and

472
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 3: I think that this is a good spot to catch

473
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: double digits with the Panthers and what I think will

474
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 3: be a lower scoring game. We you know, Matt Rules

475
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 3: come out and said we want to run the ball.

476
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 3: Run the ball, run the ball. Now, I think you'll

477
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 3: see a lot of that. You can see PJ. Walker

478
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 3: uses legs some. I think the Panthers can keep this close.

479
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: All right.

480
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 4: For my second pick in the third overall pick of

481
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 4: the week ten Sunday six pack, I am going with

482
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns plus one and a half at bet MGM,

483
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. Browns

484
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 4: are plus one and a half in Foxborough. But no

485
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: Tom Brady. I'm just not intimidated by betting against the

486
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 4: Patriots in Foxborough here. First of all, you know, if

487
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 4: you kind of are scared of it, and we know

488
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 4: Belichick has the great numbers historically, most of them with Brady,

489
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: but this year they're one and four straight up at home.

490
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: They lost that game to Miami where they fumble at

491
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 4: the end, but they still put up only sixteen points

492
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 4: of offense, so kind of an ugly game.

493
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 1: They will twenty eight to thirteen.

494
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 4: So the Saints can't really get much going play a

495
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 4: low scoring game with the Bucks, play well on defense

496
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 4: but still lose. Finally, we play a good game in

497
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 4: multiple phases against the Cowboys, but you know, they lose

498
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: on an overtime game, okay, and then they pull out

499
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 4: the Jets, which you know, they pull out the Jets

500
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 4: pretty much regardless of venue. But I don't think this

501
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 4: team has the same type of homefield advantage that it had,

502
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: you know, a couple of years ago. Obviously, the injuries

503
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 4: to the New England running backs can wom large because

504
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 4: you have Ramondre Stevenson the rookie and Damien Harris the starter,

505
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 4: both in concussion protocol. Those two guys account for seventy

506
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 4: one percent of their rushing yards seventy three percent of

507
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 4: their rushing touchdowns. I think Bolden can give you some

508
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 4: stuff in the in the past game, but if you

509
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 4: have to run him fifteen times, it's it's not gonna

510
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 4: be as good, not gonna be as physical as those

511
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 4: other two Cleveland and Listen, I think there's gonna be

512
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 4: a low scoring game. I think you probably agree with that.

513
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 4: We'll get to that in another section. But in a

514
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 4: low scoring game like this, I think it hurts that

515
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 4: Cleveland can match up even if Patriots are healthy in

516
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,200
Speaker 4: the run govern I mean, they're six best and run

517
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,200
Speaker 4: defense DVA. And on the other side, the Patriots have

518
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 4: been better against the pass. They're just seventeenth in run defense.

519
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 4: So you know, I know Nick Chubb is on the

520
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 4: COVID list, but we've seen that Cleveland.

521
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 1: Can run the ball. They're kind of like San Francisco,

522
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: and that they can run the ball with a.

523
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 4: Variety of different Bats because they use a lot of

524
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 4: heavy person no multiple tight ends.

525
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: They're very well schemed in a run game.

526
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 4: So still going to be trouble for the Patriots, even

527
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,680
Speaker 4: if it is dearanis Johnson carrying the low. We saw

528
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 4: he can do that in an impressive fashion a couple

529
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 4: of weeks ago.

530
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: And then in Cleveland they get pressure.

531
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 4: Their second in pressure rate Miles Garrett twenty eight point

532
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 4: four percent pressure rate according to Pro Football Reference. Mac

533
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 4: Jones's completion percentage dropped from seventy two to fifty six

534
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 4: percent under pressure. His yard per attempt dropped from seven

535
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 4: point seven to five and a half under pressure.

536
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 1: That's over two full yards. That's what you kind of

537
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 1: expect with quarterbacks.

538
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 4: But you know, Mac Jones has kind of been up

539
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 4: and down, and this is one of those spots where

540
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 4: I don't think he's going to give him much, which is,

541
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 4: you know how you lose games like seventeen sixteen to

542
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 4: the Dolphins or twenty eight thirteen to the Saints, or

543
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 4: you only put up seventeen on the Bucks even though

544
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 4: your defense plays well. Because Mac Jones, I think it's

545
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 4: gonna be it's not gonna be an explosive offense. Here

546
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 4: his turnover where he plays out to go for one

547
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 4: percent when kept clean to six percent under pressure. And

548
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 4: on the other side, New England's below average in getting

549
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 4: pressure on defense there at twenty four point seven percent.

550
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: That's eighteenth in the league. So you don't worry about

551
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: Baker as much in this matchup.

552
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 4: That's when you really want to fade Bakers in those

553
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 4: spots where you know the defense is going to get

554
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 4: a lot of pressure. And then hey, I mean listen,

555
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 4: I don't think I joke on Odell. I still think

556
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 4: he's a talented guy. I don't think he's the same guy.

557
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 4: But it's obvious that Baker is playing better and plays

558
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 4: better without him. You know, we heard the reports that

559
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: Odell a lot of times freelances and Baker's kind of

560
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 4: like Kirk Cousins and that I think he's a very

561
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 4: you know, he kind of follows his reads and does

562
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 4: what he's supposed to do, so when a receiver's in

563
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,360
Speaker 4: the wrong spot, just not a good good situation for him.

564
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 4: So the numbers kind of bear it out with Odell

565
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 4: Beckham Baker Mayfield fifty nine point six percent completion rate,

566
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 4: seven point one yards per attempt, one and a half touchdowns,

567
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,360
Speaker 4: one pick per game. Without Beckham goes from fifty nine

568
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 4: point six to sixty four point one percent, and completion

569
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 4: rate from seven point one to eight point one in

570
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 4: yards per attempt, the touchdowns go up, the interceptions drop

571
00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 4: from a one point zero to just point sixty five game.

572
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: So I'm not worried about Baker too much.

573
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 4: I think they can still run it whoever the back

574
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 4: is here, and I just don't think it's a good

575
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 4: matchup for New England. And I think New England's a

576
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 4: pretty average team and the Browns are better, and DVA

577
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: kind of spells that out. You have Cleveland sixth and

578
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 4: overall DVOA. I thought I liked them last week against Cincinnati.

579
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 4: You know, there was like a fifteen point gap between

580
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 4: in terms of spots between the two teams. Cleveland's still six,

581
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 4: New England's thirteen, New England's average, Cleveland's above average, an

582
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 4: above average team here, I think they play well. I

583
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 4: think they get this win here. So go in Cleveland

584
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 4: plus one and a half against the Patriots.

585
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree here. I would have went with the

586
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 3: Browns as my third pick, but you took them, so

587
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 3: hopefully that's a good sign that we both agree here

588
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 3: and I had the same handicap. It comes down to pressure.

589
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 3: Brown's third and adjusted sacrate, Maccho's third highest turnover worthy

590
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 3: throw percentage under pressure. He's only ahead of Big Ben

591
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 3: and justin Fields. That's it. And on top of that,

592
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 3: he's only faced one heavy pressure in Carolina last week.

593
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 3: One of the reasons of background. He looked awful. He

594
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,879
Speaker 3: did nothing. He was really poor all day with a

595
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 3: bad interception, and I expected to make some mistakes here.

596
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 3: This Brown's defense is really good now that they're healthy.

597
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 3: They can get pressure. Their secondary is healthy. And I

598
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 3: think a lot of the Browns numbers and by the way,

599
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 3: they lost the game that they should have won against

600
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: the Chargers if not for a brutal call. They lost

601
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 3: the game against Kansas City that they should have won

602
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 3: if not for just a box punk snap. But they've

603
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 3: also doubled a ton of injuries, so I think that

604
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 3: their numbers are deflated due to some of these injuries.

605
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: And you're right the Patriots eighteenth and adjustice sacarate eighteenth

606
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: in pressure eight. It's good for Baker here, and it

607
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: was funny early in the season. I said that the

608
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: only thing that can go wrong with this Browns offense

609
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: is if there's drama with Baker and Odell. Well, that's

610
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: now been solved. And yeah the Patriots. Look, they got

611
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 3: a good winner of the Chargers. But the only other

612
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: wins on the air the Jet twice, the Texans and

613
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 3: ghost seeing Sam Darnold. That's it. So I agree. I

614
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: think that the Browns aren't getting enough credit in the

615
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 3: market here, just like last week. I don't get it.

616
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 3: I mean, they were catching three at Cincinnati in the

617
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: place with every there was no home field there. I

618
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 3: don't know why the Browns aren't getting enough love in

619
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: the market, but I do think that they should win

620
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 3: this game. And yeah, I'll have more on the total later.

621
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 3: For my second pick and the fourth overall pick of

622
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 3: the Sunday six pack, I'm going with the New Orleans

623
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: Saints plus three at bet MGM against the Tennessee Titans. Now, look,

624
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 3: the Titans. I have to give them credit here for

625
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 3: one thing in particular, and it's their defensive line. And

626
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 3: a guy that I've been raving about since you know

627
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 3: he came into the league was Jeffrey Simmons, and he's

628
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 3: now a top five intier defensive lineman only into your

629
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: defensive linement with forty plus pressures on the air. He

630
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 3: is forty two, Aaron Donald is forty one. Their defensive

631
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 3: line is playing really well and they're able to generate pressure,

632
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: and that's taking pressure off of what's a really bad

633
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,239
Speaker 3: secondary outside of Kevin Byer, who's playing at an all

634
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 3: pro level. This you know, you look at Landry, he's

635
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: playing really well. Au True, he's out. I mean, they

636
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 3: had a lot of guys that are getting natural pressure

637
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 3: and they're not flitzing up front in the defensive line.

638
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 3: And when you could do that, it masks some of

639
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 3: the issues you have in the secondary. So I have

640
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 3: to give the Titans credit there. And once they get

641
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 3: all their pieces back healthy on offense, and you know,

642
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 3: if you get Fulton back in a corner and your

643
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 3: secondary gets healthier, this is a team. This is a

644
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 3: defense that has the potential to be slightly below average

645
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: maybe average, And coming into the year, I thought they

646
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 3: were a bottom five unit. I don't necessarily think that's

647
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 3: the case anymore once they become fully healthy, and that

648
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 3: makes them a legit Super Bowl contender. If they get

649
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 3: fully healthy, you know, and Obviously, Dereck Henry needs to

650
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 3: come back. But this team isn't fully healthy right now,

651
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: and they're severely overrated by the market. You know, you

652
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 3: look at the Titans from a d DOI perspective, they're fourteenth,

653
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 3: you know, the Saints are eighth. How about the Titans

654
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 3: offense sixteenth, that's right where the Saints offenses seventeen. Defense,

655
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 3: the we're the big differences. The Titans are actually I

656
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 3: think like tenth or eleventh in defense. The Saints are third,

657
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 3: but I think they might be the best defense in

658
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 3: the NFL. They've dealt with some injuries, they're now fully healthy.

659
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 3: Estimated wins you look at these teams, how about estimated

660
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 3: wins for football outsiders. The Titans are seven and two

661
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 3: estimated wins four point five, that's eighteenth in the NFL.

662
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 3: Now about the Saints five point six, that's six in

663
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 3: the NFL. Saints are a better team right now. They're

664
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 3: a top ten team. I don't think the Titans are

665
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 3: top ten team right now, throwing the injuries of the

666
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: offensive line they're in, Derrick Henry not being that you know,

667
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 3: throw Leio Jones not being fully healthy. Throwing some of

668
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: the injuries in the secondary. This isn't a fully healthy

669
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 3: team the Titans defense, and look, the Saints are obviously

670
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 3: playing with Trevor Simeon. I think you're going to see

671
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: a lot more of Taysom Hill, and I think that'll

672
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: work this week. His run packages Titans ste twenty fifth

673
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 3: and EPA per rush twenty ninth and rush success rate.

674
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 3: I think the Saints can move it on the ground

675
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 3: here when they need to throw. They have an eleit

676
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 3: offensive line, so this elite offensive line can give them

677
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 3: time and they can hit some short passes. Move the

678
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 3: ball here. The Saintsteed will knock give up anything on

679
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: the ground. It's the best run defense in the NFL.

680
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 3: Right with the right there with the Tampa Bay Box,

681
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 3: and they specialize in taking away outside receivers. You can

682
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 3: get Latimore on Brown. The Titans offensive line is banged up,

683
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 3: and get some pressure on Tannel and they just don't

684
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 3: have the running attack anymore. You look, the defensive line

685
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 3: was impressive against the Rams last week, but the offense

686
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 3: did nothing. The offense did nothing at all, was awful.

687
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 3: I mean, you go look at the box. Swards, one

688
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 3: of the August schools you'll see all year they've benefited

689
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 3: from turnovers, and over this stretch, you know they've They've

690
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 3: beat some really good teams over the past few weeks.

691
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 3: You want to talk about benefiting from turnovers, I mean,

692
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 3: over and over again, the Titans have benefited from turnovers.

693
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 3: So I think if there's some regression coming there, special

694
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 3: team's edge for the Saints as well coaching edge for

695
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 3: the Saints also, And speaking of coaches, what do I

696
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: always say is the underdog God Sean Payton forty four

697
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 3: to twenty five and two sixty four percent, covering by

698
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 3: four points per game as an underdog twenty five percent.

699
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 3: ROI second most profitable of one hundred and thirty seven

700
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 3: coaches as an underdog since two thousand and three, only

701
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 3: behind Tomlin. Even better, Peyton off a loss forty nine

702
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 3: to twenty six against the spread over sixty five percent,

703
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 3: covered by four points per game twenty eight percent. ROI

704
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 3: second most profitable coach of about one hundred and forties

705
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 3: and two thousand and three, only behind Belichick. Vrabel great

706
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 3: as a dog seventeen nine against the spread, thirteen and

707
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 3: eighteen against the spread as a favorite. And you know,

708
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 3: when I talk about this Titans team, and estimated wins.

709
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 3: I mean, look, the Bills slip on a quarterback sneak

710
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: in a game that they were up ten. I mean,

711
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 3: I had the Titans in that game, could have easily

712
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 3: lost that game. The Colts game should have lost it.

713
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 3: There's a fluke fumble on a torn acl after an interception.

714
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,919
Speaker 3: They end up winning that game in overtime. So they've

715
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: had a lot of bounces go their way lately. And

716
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 3: another thing to keep in mind here is are they exhausted?

717
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 3: I mean the Titans, I mean, you've had all of

718
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 3: these huge games in back to back weeks. You play

719
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 3: the Bills, you play the Chiefs, you play your rival

720
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 3: in overtime and put them out of their misery in

721
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 3: the division. Then you travel out West in prime time

722
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 3: and win is a seven point dog against the Rams.

723
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 3: Now you're coming home and playing the Saints. I mean,

724
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 3: there's got to be an element of fatigue here as well.

725
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 3: So I actually think, as of right now, given the

726
00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 3: statuses of these rosters, the Saints are better overall team.

727
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 3: And I'm getting three on the road with you know,

728
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 3: a coach who's thrived in this spot in the past.

729
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: I don't think that this sets up well for this

730
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 3: Titans offense, just like we saw last week. And this

731
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: is a much better Saints defense than what the Rams

732
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 3: are fielding. So I think the Saints can do enough

733
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 3: on the ground. Taysom Hill Kamara is a little little

734
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 3: banged up. It's something to keep your eye on, but

735
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 3: I expect him to play. But I think you're gonna

736
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 3: see a lot of Taysom Hill packages short passes. They

737
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 3: can control this defensive line, and if you could do that,

738
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 3: it's poverty on the back end outside of Bayern. So

739
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 3: I think the Saints get this win. I have been

740
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 3: impressed with the Titans, but I think this is a

741
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 3: great spot to back the Saints. So give me New Orleans.

742
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm up to play.

743
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 4: I would have taken this with one of my picks

744
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 4: if you hadn't taken it. Love Sean Payton as a

745
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 4: dog and off a loss, as you mentioned on the road,

746
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 4: off the loss, he's twenty six segainst the spread, So

747
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 4: I mean, that's just that's just absurd. He's really good

748
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 4: in these spots. This is the Saint Saints team that

749
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 4: just won against the Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucks

750
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago, and we picked against them.

751
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 4: You know when they put when they went to play

752
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,439
Speaker 4: the Falcons the following week with a classic wet down spot.

753
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 4: But they you know, they know they can get this

754
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 4: done and win this kind of game. And I agree

755
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 4: the Times did nothing on offense against the Rams, and

756
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 4: the Rams are a good defense, but Stinks are even better.

757
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 1: Would you see the.

758
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,240
Speaker 3: Titan Peterson finished with what was Peterson.

759
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 1: Ten for twenty or something like that in a touch.

760
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 3: Ten for twenty. There's just no running game, which crushes

761
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:25,839
Speaker 3: the play action. You don't have to worry about the clash,

762
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 3: and the Saints don't have to worry about that either.

763
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 3: They have a good run defense is best the best.

764
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 3: It's it doesn't set up well for the Titans offense

765
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 3: here to have much success. So I think that the

766
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 3: Saints can grind out a win here. And the Saints

767
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: have just been like they've been really predictable. It's like,

768
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 3: all right, week one, they're like, look really good a

769
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:41,919
Speaker 3: week and then the next week they have a little

770
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 3: bit of letdown and Peyton kind of cleans it up.

771
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 3: So I think you get their best effort here.

772
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 1: Yep, totally agree, all right.

773
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 4: For my third pick, any fifth overall pick of the

774
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 4: Sunday six pack for Week ten, I'm going with the

775
00:36:54,200 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 4: Minnesota Vikings plus three at the Los Angeles Chargers a

776
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 4: spot here. We kind of know Minnesota and their mo

777
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 4: You know, they have these really heartbreaking losses and they

778
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 4: play well, then they have these losses, and then they

779
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,879
Speaker 4: play a little better the next week, and the market

780
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 4: is usually a little too much down on them.

781
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota could win this game. Obviously.

782
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 4: I am a little concern about how many snaps their

783
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 4: defense played. I think that's that's going to be an issue,

784
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 4: especially you know with Hunter being out and Harrison Smith

785
00:37:25,280 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 4: that though they bid him, replaced Harrison Smith in the

786
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 4: line up and played really well.

787
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: So maybe that's not as big as losses as we thought.

788
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: But listen, Mike.

789
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 4: Zimmer's thirty three and sixteen sixty seven percent off a

790
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,319
Speaker 4: loss against the spread. He's fifteen and five seventy five

791
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,799
Speaker 4: percent against the spread off a multi game, straight.

792
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 1: Up losing streak. You know, they coaching for his job

793
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: right here.

794
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 4: Everyone's down on him in Minnesota in terms of the

795
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 4: fan base, those these close, gut wrenching losses are piling up,

796
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:57,800
Speaker 4: but overall, the underlying metrics still say Minnesota is a

797
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 4: better team. There are eleventh in overall DVA, the Chargers

798
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 4: are sixteenth. And you want to talk about estimated wins,

799
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 4: Minnesota's three and five on the year, but they're estimated

800
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 4: wins five point four. The Chargers are five and three

801
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:11,879
Speaker 4: on the year, but their estimated.

802
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: Wins just four point four. It's a full point less.

803
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 4: I think this Charger team kind of plays into Minnesota

804
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,440
Speaker 4: having success because the issue with Minnesota on offense this year.

805
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 4: Everyone wants to kind of talk about Cousins and they

806
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 4: don't get to boll to Jefferson enough. And maybe that

807
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 4: could be true. But Minnesota's sixth in past offense DVA.

808
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 4: They're twenty ninth in run offense. Now that's going to

809
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 4: regress simply because the backfield is too talented with Madison Cook.

810
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 4: Now you have the rookie Wonghu who you know Cook.

811
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 4: I mean, I think he's going to be fine for

812
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 4: this week. You know, some legal issues going on there,

813
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 4: but it looks like he's going to play this week.

814
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 4: But they have a talented backfield. The Chargers are dead

815
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 4: last and run defense DVA. So if you wet Minnesota

816
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 4: run it. I think that really helps Minnesota throwing the ball.

817
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 4: It keeps them on schedule. They've still been efficient, they're

818
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 4: still and have talented pass catchers when they do throw it.

819
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 4: So I think that'll be a kind of it kind

820
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 4: of plays into it. And then the Chargers also they

821
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 4: try to women it's supposed to plays and they'll sit back.

822
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 4: But I also think that plays into what Minnesota does

823
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 4: because Cousins is going to make the red check it

824
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 4: down anyway, so you know, you don't kind of work

825
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,839
Speaker 4: if if the defense is giving up those underneath things,

826
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,839
Speaker 4: you know, that's kind of in Minnesota's m O either way.

827
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 4: And then on the other side, listen Justin Herbert. He's

828
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 4: playing bounced backcaus I thought he would. Against the Eagles,

829
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 4: they didn't stop him at all. I mean a couple

830
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 4: of turnovers on downs and I think something to end

831
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 4: and a half no punch for the Chargers in that game.

832
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 1: But Minnesota, they are third in past defense dv O.

833
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 4: So I think they can get a couple of stops.

834
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 4: You know, third down stops. They're usually very good in

835
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 4: situational football. That's been one of the things under under

836
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 4: Zimmern defense and that's holding up again. Their fifth in

837
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 4: third down conversion rate haven't been as good in the

838
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 4: red zone this year. They're only twenty six, but third

839
00:39:58,320 --> 00:39:59,919
Speaker 4: down conversion rate they're they're fifth.

840
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: The Chargers have been.

841
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 4: Overperforming on third downs, I think a little bit. So

842
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 4: I think I do think Minnesota will have some success here.

843
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 4: I think it is key to stop them in the

844
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 4: past game. You know, that's where it's first and foremost

845
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 4: where you want to slow down to Chargers. So I

846
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 4: like the matchup for Minnesota in this spot, and you know,

847
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 4: better team, better defense. I think even without Hunter, I

848
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 4: think there's still a better defense. The eighth and DVOA

849
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 4: obviously missing some pieces, but the Chargers are twentieth. I

850
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 4: just think this is the kind of game that you know,

851
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 4: when you get down on Minnesota, you count them out.

852
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,720
Speaker 4: They seem to be doing everything wrong to lose games.

853
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 4: I think this is the type of game they can win.

854
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 4: I think they're slightly better team. I don't think there's

855
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 4: any home field advantage for the Chargers, as we talk

856
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 4: about pretty much add nauseum, So give me Minnesota plus

857
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 4: three in LA.

858
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Vikings. These are two teams that are pretty

859
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 3: similar in that they just play a ton of close case.

860
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: I mean, the Vikings lose by three and over time

861
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 3: to the Bengals, lose by one on a missfield goal

862
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: to the Cardinals, Seahawks by thirteen, lose I seven of

863
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 3: the brown win on the last second field goal by

864
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 3: two to against the Lions, winning overtime against the Panthers,

865
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 3: Lose by four on a last second Cooper Rush touchdown

866
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 3: drive to the Cowboys. Lose by three in overtime to

867
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 3: the Ravens. Every one of their games has been decided

868
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 3: by one possession except like Seahawks win three of them

869
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 3: they played in overtime. And then you look at the

870
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 3: Chargers this year. This is a team that also look

871
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 3: new coach, same Chargers as far as close games are concerned.

872
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 3: One by four against Washington, lost by three to the Cowboys,

873
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 3: won by six against the Chiefs. They did beat they

874
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 3: did beat Vegas by fourteen, beat the Browns by five,

875
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,120
Speaker 3: got crushed by the Ravens, lost by three to the Patriots,

876
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,879
Speaker 3: one by three against the Eagles. Close skins across the board.

877
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 3: So even though this is a high total, it is

878
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 3: a pretty good spot to maybe tease the Vikings above nine.

879
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 3: I expect this to be a close gin. The only

880
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 3: thing I have concerned about is the Vikings potential COVID issues.

881
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 3: So they had Dakota Dosher went to the hospital. There

882
00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 3: was a bunch of close contacts. I don't know as

883
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 3: of now we're recording this. Some winesay, I don't know.

884
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,799
Speaker 3: You know, you could have tomorrow five guys pop up

885
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 3: and then not gonna be able to go. They're gonna

886
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,320
Speaker 3: go on the COVID list. You don't know who that

887
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 3: would be, So that is something to keep in mind.

888
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 3: Harrison Smith is out, daneil Hunter is out. That's the

889
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 3: twelfth best safety and the fourteenth best edge rusher in

890
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 3: the league per PFF. And then you also have your

891
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 3: number one corner out. I don't think it's as big

892
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 3: of a drop off. I actually like Cam Danceler, but

893
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 3: that's three key guys in your past defense, which has

894
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,399
Speaker 3: been your strength. On the other side, the Chargers can't

895
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 3: defend the run and their secondary is in shambles, shambles

896
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 3: as far as injuries are concerned, so it's gonna be

897
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 3: It's hard for me to see many stops here. Total

898
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 3: has risen. I think that it's I don't disagree with

899
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 3: taking the three year. I also wouldn't hate an over

900
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 3: or if it starts slow alive over if either one

901
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 3: of these teams gets behind by a lot betting them

902
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 3: in the live market as well, I don't think either

903
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 3: one of these teams could have issues coming from behind,

904
00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 3: and who knows, could be another overtime game for the Vikings.

905
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, and let me just for everyone out there that

906
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,919
Speaker 4: wants to tail the pick, I would suggest waiting until

907
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:11,280
Speaker 4: closer to kickoff because it seems like, as you just alluded,

908
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 4: too stuck more of the news has the potential to

909
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 4: go against the Vikings, so you might get even better

910
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 4: than the three I don't think it. I don't think

911
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 4: you're as at as much of a risk for it

912
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 4: to go back to two and a half again, because

913
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 4: you know, you have the Dalvin Cooks, you know, situation

914
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 4: popping up, you have the COVID situations popping up. So

915
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 4: I think it's more likely that this maybe even gets

916
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 4: to three and a half, which would be lovely, than

917
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 4: it does go back.

918
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 1: To two and a half.

919
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 4: You always take a little bit of a risk when

920
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 4: you do that, but I think in this spot, I

921
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 4: do think that it's more likely that negative news impacts

922
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 4: the Vikings, which pushes the lineup, and I would still

923
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 4: like them. Again, this is just, you know, beyond the

924
00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 4: matchups and beyond the fact that I think the Vikes

925
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 4: are pretty similar and maybe even slightly better team here,

926
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 4: this is just a great spot for them. You know,

927
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 4: when you count them out and Zimmer's coming off a

928
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 4: loss or multiple losses and they're looking down, these are

929
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 4: the kind of spots that they get up for.

930
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: So I just wanted to point that out. You might

931
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: want to wait up until closer to walk.

932
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good point. You can also try and

933
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 3: get more intel on who's out for the Vikings, if anybody.

934
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 3: All right, So for my third pick and the sixth

935
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 3: and final pick of the Sunday six pack for Week ten,

936
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Detroit Lions plus nine against the

937
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Steelers. Hello, Detroit, this is ugly. I almost went

938
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,279
Speaker 3: with the Cowboys. We'll talk about that game later laying nine,

939
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 3: but I ultimately went with the Lines on the news

940
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 3: of Taylor Decker returning full participant in practice today, so

941
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 3: that means you know you're gonna have this. The strength

942
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 3: of this line seems supposed to be their offensive line,

943
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 3: but there's been a ton of injuries. But you get

944
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 3: Decker back, you know you can move School over to

945
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: right tackle. And the only weakness on this line's offensive

946
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 3: line this year has been Nelson. Whoever, the the right

947
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 3: tackle has been one of the worst in football. Well,

948
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 3: now you can move soon over there and you've decord

949
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:06,240
Speaker 3: to the left side. Rag Now they're all pro. Center's

950
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 3: been hurt. This kid, Evan Brown has been one of

951
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 3: the best centers in football. In his place, he's been awesome.

952
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 3: So now you have a really good offensive line back

953
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 3: in place against the Steelers' defensive line. Can give God

954
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 3: some time to hitch some short passes. I don't expect

955
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 3: the lines offense to do much here.

956
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 1: But the here's the thing.

957
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 3: It's this is just too many points with the Steelers

958
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 3: offense in a horrible spot. They're coming off of a

959
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 3: Monday night game, hard for Monday night win. The lines

960
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: are coming off of bye still winless. Expect some potential

961
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 3: shenanigans on special teams. They'll pull out all the stops.

962
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 3: They'll also go out all out till the end, which

963
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 3: is important. I they're down like fourteen fifteen at the end.

964
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 3: They're going to keep trying to score. We've seen that

965
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 3: many times. But it's a lot of points of the

966
00:45:53,360 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 3: low total. And there's big Ben has been bad and

967
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 3: there is worst Big Ben coming. I mean, this is

968
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 3: a guy who only has four interceptions on the year.

969
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 3: His turnover worthy throat rate is ten and a half percent.

970
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 3: Ten and a half. This is under pressure. He's been

971
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 3: one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. This turnover

972
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 3: worthy throw when he's under pressure. You're talking Fields and

973
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 3: Jones are around seven percent. Those are the next worst.

974
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 3: Here has been dropped interceptions. There's been just many chances

975
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 3: for teams to pick Ben off and they just haven't come.

976
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 3: They're coming, trust me. Now, you don't have your deep

977
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,320
Speaker 3: threat in Chase Claypool and what are the lines complete

978
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 3: poverty in it's their secondary. They're actually seventh in quarterback

979
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 3: Harry percentage. They can scheme up some pressure to get

980
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 3: to Ben, force them into some mistakes, but they cannot

981
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 3: defend the deep pass whatsoever.

982
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:51,359
Speaker 1: None.

983
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 3: They have bad corners due to injuries. They're young, and

984
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 3: they have one of I would say the worst free

985
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,840
Speaker 3: safety in the NFL. And Will Harris not a recipe

986
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 3: for stopping the deep pass. They are thirty second in

987
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 3: the NFL defending the deep pass. So the only team

988
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 3: in the NFL with an average defensive depth of target

989
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:15,800
Speaker 3: of over ten yards. Well, Ben is completing thirty percent

990
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 3: of his passes over twenty yards. Now, no Claypool Ben

991
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,960
Speaker 3: average depth of target this year seven point one yards.

992
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 3: Only Golf is lower. So this is a Lion's team

993
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 3: that I don't think is going to get burnt here

994
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,920
Speaker 3: by deep passes. It's just not what the Steelers can

995
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,120
Speaker 3: really do. And that is how you attack this line

996
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 3: secondary over and over again. And we're talking. These numbers

997
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 3: don't even include the three drop touchdown passes that Markus

998
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 3: Brown had against them. So you know, I think that

999
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 3: they can make the Steelers drive it down the field

1000
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 3: with short passes. Ben can maybe make a couple of mistakes.

1001
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 3: By the way, teams that are winless catching seven or

1002
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 3: more in game six or later over the past twenty

1003
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 3: years or sixty percent against the spread. So I just

1004
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 3: think it's a little bit the line is a little high,

1005
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 3: bad spot for the Steelers. Lines still starving for that

1006
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,799
Speaker 3: win off of a bye for two weeks, they're gonna

1007
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,319
Speaker 3: have some new wrinkles here. Just they're gonna go all out,

1008
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 3: you know that. And I don't think that the Steelers offense,

1009
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 3: which has been so bad, is equipped to really blow

1010
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 3: out teams. I don't think they've beaten anyone by more

1011
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 3: than seven points all year. Did lines secondary won't get

1012
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,760
Speaker 3: exposed as it will against most teams in the NFL.

1013
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 3: Backdoor potential here catching nine off a by starving for

1014
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 3: a win with a low total, I'll take it.

1015
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:40,439
Speaker 4: Try.

1016
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.

1017
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 4: I think the Steelers were a team that I was

1018
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 4: backing over these last few weeks. You know, everyone was

1019
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 4: down on them after that, those three straight losses, and

1020
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 4: I thought it was a good time to kind of

1021
00:48:55,000 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 4: back them in these you know, smaller spreads, any spots

1022
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:01,919
Speaker 4: against you know, teams with poor quarterbacks that they could

1023
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 4: eke out wins against.

1024
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: You know, one way or another. Now, yes, you're kind

1025
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 1: of playing the same thing.

1026
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 4: But now the line is ballooning to eight and a half, right,

1027
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 4: you know, eight and a half nine here, and that's

1028
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:14,680
Speaker 4: more than a one possession.

1029
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 1: I totally agree.

1030
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 4: I just don't know the Steelers are equipped to beat

1031
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 4: teams by more than one possession. I mean, I had

1032
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 4: the Steelers money line against the Bears, and you know

1033
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 4: I wrote it up for our primetime write up. I said, listen,

1034
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,399
Speaker 4: you know I wouldn't feel comfortable taking them on the spread,

1035
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 4: even though I think they're a better team, because it's

1036
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 4: just just a low probability outcome that they win by

1037
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 4: enough points to cover. And I mean, it was miserable

1038
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 4: just just having them on the money line. They probably

1039
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 4: should have lost that game. The refs gave them. I mean,

1040
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 4: it just got another fifteen yard poaltsy as we're recording

1041
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 4: this go in their favor, like it's it was nuts

1042
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,359
Speaker 4: for them. So I mean, you have penalty regression coming

1043
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 4: on top of everything else, you have penalty regression coming

1044
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 4: for the Steelers.

1045
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't like that at all. I may

1046
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 1: join you with that one either either that or I might.

1047
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 4: I might attack the total too. I don't see many

1048
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 4: points being scored in this game on either side. So

1049
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 4: either way, it benefits the Lions because you have a

1050
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,399
Speaker 4: total spread of eight and a half in a game

1051
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 4: with a total under forty three. You know, it's tough

1052
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,239
Speaker 4: to cover in those spots, and it's been tough for

1053
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 4: the Steelers to cover those numbers.

1054
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, won't all right?

1055
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 4: That is our Week ten Sunday six pack presented by

1056
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 4: the Athletic Brewing Company. Thrikap Stucky going with the Carolina

1057
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 4: Panthers plus ten and a half, the New Orleans Saints

1058
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 4: plus three, and the Detroit Lions plus nine. I am

1059
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 4: going with the Seattle Seahawks plus three and a half,

1060
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 4: the Cleveland Browns plus one and a half, and the

1061
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 4: Minnesota Vikings plus three. So six underdogs on the Week

1062
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:44,480
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1063
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,480
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1064
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1065
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1066
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1067
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1068
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1069
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:10,360
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1070
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1071
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:19,200
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1072
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:23,920
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1073
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1074
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1075
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,320
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1076
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 4: Action ten.

1077
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 1: That's act Ion one zero. Cheers, Hick.

1078
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 4: Let's get into our coaches pep Talk, and for today's

1079
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 4: Coaches pep Talk, we're gonna go a little more somber

1080
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:51,400
Speaker 4: than usual because Sunday marks the fifty first anniversary of

1081
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 4: the infamous and tragic Marshall University plane crash that took

1082
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:59,919
Speaker 4: the lives of seventy five members of their football probe.

1083
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 4: To acknowledge this tragedy, this week's coaches pep Talk will

1084
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 4: be a speech from Matthew McConaughey from the two thousand

1085
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 4: and six film We Are Marshall.

1086
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 5: I want to talk about our opponent this afternoon. They're bigger, faster, stronger,

1087
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 5: more experienced, and on paper, they're just better and they

1088
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 5: know it too. I don't want to tell you something

1089
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,959
Speaker 5: that they don't know. They don't know you're hard.

1090
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 1: All right.

1091
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:28,680
Speaker 4: That wraps up our pep talk for this week. Let's

1092
00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 4: get into our favorite total for Week ten.

1093
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is game we already talked about. I'm going

1094
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 3: to go with the Browns and Patriots under forty five

1095
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 3: at Vedam Jim, you can find a forty five and

1096
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 3: a half out there, which is obviously a key number.

1097
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:44,319
Speaker 3: You want to search for that and try and get

1098
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,319
Speaker 3: it if you can. But we talked about this game.

1099
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,440
Speaker 3: I don't think that mac Jones is gonna have much success.

1100
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 3: The Browns run defense has been really good. The Patriots

1101
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:57,680
Speaker 3: can keep this Brown's offense relatively in check. Look, the

1102
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 3: Patriots are seven teenth and situation neutral pace. The Browns

1103
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 3: are twenty ninth. Neither of these teams plays terribly fast.

1104
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 3: Both of these teams are top ten in rush rate.

1105
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 3: You're gonna see a lot of runs. You're gonna see,

1106
00:53:11,120 --> 00:53:13,239
Speaker 3: I think, a lot of punts, and you're gonna see

1107
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 3: the clock bleeding throughout. I think this is a lower

1108
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 3: scoring game. I think this Browns defense is severely underrated

1109
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 3: now that it's close to full health. And I think

1110
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 3: mac Jones is going to struggle with the pressure and

1111
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 3: that run. He's been really good. Baker's not going to

1112
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 3: go off here against his Patriots defense. They'll have some

1113
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:32,800
Speaker 3: success on the ground, But I think that this is

1114
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 3: a low scoring game. I'll call it like twenty one

1115
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 3: to seventeen.

1116
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could see that same exact score play it out.

1117
00:53:39,960 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 4: You know, Belichick's even though I think the Browns are

1118
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 4: the better team and have the edge probably on both

1119
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:47,000
Speaker 4: sides of the ball, you know, Belichick's not gonna let

1120
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 4: this one get out of hand, at least you don't

1121
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 4: expect them to. I'm still one of the best schemers

1122
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 4: in the league on both sides. So who adatt looks fells.

1123
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 3: I am sick of this year. Okay, I can't stand

1124
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 3: much more of this a joke.

1125
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 4: It's a joke if he feels like he has to

1126
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:04,959
Speaker 4: play to keep it close, which he might, because again,

1127
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 4: I know Belichick kind of understand even if he's not

1128
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,759
Speaker 4: using analytics per se. I think he kind of comes

1129
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 4: to the same conclusion to some of these underlying metrics,

1130
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:15,279
Speaker 4: and he's gonna see that the Browns are pretty significantly

1131
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 4: better team. So he's gonna have to play to kind

1132
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 4: of keep this one close, stay in it, you know,

1133
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 4: try to get a special teams play. You don't expect

1134
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 4: any special teams disasters like a you know, a return

1135
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,239
Speaker 4: or something like that. Both of these teams are are

1136
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 4: pretty good and special teams. So yeah, I think it's

1137
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 4: just gonna be kind of close to the best game

1138
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 4: for both sides.

1139
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:35,239
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, we got him. Yeah, we'll see, we'll say

1140
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 3: who's got who.

1141
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 4: Well, my total for Week ten, I am going with

1142
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:42,200
Speaker 4: the Eagles Broncos under forty five.

1143
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 1: I love this under for a number of reasons.

1144
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 4: First of all, I think Philadelphia, whether they're right or wrong,

1145
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:52,319
Speaker 4: finally realized that it might benefit them to run the ball.

1146
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,000
Speaker 1: In the last two weeks they run the ball.

1147
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 4: Eighty five times forty two and a half times per game,

1148
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 4: and even against the charge you know, bad run defense,

1149
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,360
Speaker 4: but that was still a game where you know it

1150
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:05,840
Speaker 4: was a close game. So people look at the Lions

1151
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:08,360
Speaker 4: game and say, okay, it was game script, but you

1152
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 4: know they do it against the Chargers. And even though

1153
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 4: this might be fools gold, you know, playing two bad

1154
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 4: run defenses running a lot having success, I still think

1155
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 4: from a coaching perspective, they're going to look at it

1156
00:55:18,239 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 4: and say.

1157
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 1: Hey, you know we're playing a little bit more even

1158
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 1: even keeled here, a little more balanced on offense. Let's

1159
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 1: keep this up.

1160
00:55:24,520 --> 00:55:26,080
Speaker 4: So I do expect Philly to run a little more.

1161
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:28,960
Speaker 4: Denver also doing with some issues and injuries to their

1162
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 4: run defense.

1163
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:31,799
Speaker 1: And then on the other side of the.

1164
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 4: Ball, Philadelphia allows the lowest average depth of target in

1165
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 4: the league to six point four. Their defense, as we've

1166
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 4: talked about, is predicated with Jonathan Gannon on stopping explosive plays.

1167
00:55:43,840 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 4: He's going to play a ton of zone almost almost

1168
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:49,680
Speaker 4: never goes to Mandon Man, a lot of quarters coverage,

1169
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:53,759
Speaker 4: which means four players in deep zones and you know

1170
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:55,840
Speaker 4: split safety, but four players in deep zones, so you

1171
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 4: have everyone covering a quarter of the field. That's going

1172
00:55:58,560 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 4: to really help limit the big plays. And Teddy Ridgewater

1173
00:56:01,239 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 4: his average up the target has been around nine. So

1174
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:06,280
Speaker 4: this is what the Broncos have kind of on offense,

1175
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,520
Speaker 4: what they've kind of been doing in games where they

1176
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:09,360
Speaker 4: have a lot of success.

1177
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 1: Now the numbers bear that out.

1178
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:15,320
Speaker 4: You're not just from you know, Philadelphia being able to

1179
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 4: kind of force Denver to play the way they don't

1180
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:19,880
Speaker 4: want to do. But you just look at Denver against

1181
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:24,280
Speaker 4: zone this year versus against man coverage. Against man coverage,

1182
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:27,360
Speaker 4: Denver's averaging ten point four yards per target according to

1183
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 4: Pro Football Focus, against zone coverage just six point eight.

1184
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 4: That's a three and a half yard per target drop

1185
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 4: off facing zone, and remember the Eagles play zone over

1186
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:38,000
Speaker 4: eighty percent of the time.

1187
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:39,880
Speaker 1: They're almost never in man coverage.

1188
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:42,360
Speaker 4: So you know, we look at this game and the

1189
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 4: Broncos are a field goal favorite, and they very well

1190
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 4: may win the game, but it's not gonna because they're

1191
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 4: just going up and down the field and creating these

1192
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 4: explosive plays. You look at the Eagles offense, very low variants,

1193
00:56:54,800 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 4: third in variants, which means they're very consistent. We can

1194
00:56:57,040 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 4: kind of know what you're gonna get. You're gonna expect

1195
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:03,400
Speaker 4: the Eagles to score somewhere from seventeen to twenty four points,

1196
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:04,879
Speaker 4: and that's that's kind of been there.

1197
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 1: Mo.

1198
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:07,920
Speaker 4: One of these two teams could win, like your twenty

1199
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:10,160
Speaker 4: seven to ten. You know, I could see that happening

1200
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 4: either way. Denver has some o line injuries. Both of

1201
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 4: these teams allowing five point four yards per play on

1202
00:57:15,200 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 4: d the NFL averages five point six, so both above average. There,

1203
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 4: Bridgewater under thirty five twenty two and one in his

1204
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:25,439
Speaker 4: career sixty five percent, so like the under forty five

1205
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 4: for Philly.

1206
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 1: Denver.

1207
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:28,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, the one thing I do like about this is

1208
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 3: that you're not gonna have a lot of explosive plays,

1209
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 3: or at least I don't think so. You know, that's

1210
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 3: what Fando wants to take away, and that's what the

1211
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 3: Eagles want to take away. So you're gonna have to

1212
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 3: drive the field in this game. Some of the defensive

1213
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:40,920
Speaker 3: injuries on both sides of the ball do concern me.

1214
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:43,360
Speaker 3: The Eagles had a lot of guys that didn't practice today,

1215
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 3: so I'm not really worried. Both of these teams are

1216
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 3: gonna make you drive it down the field and sustain

1217
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 3: drives without hitting explosive place, which is always ideal for

1218
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 3: an under. I personally think, Eagles, what are two and

1219
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 3: a half?

1220
00:57:55,880 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 4: Run out?

1221
00:57:56,240 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 3: Good teaser piece with our other total? This is good

1222
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 3: to be like, its better more value than you're teasing

1223
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:04,480
Speaker 3: the dog. I actually tease the Browns with the Eagles,

1224
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 3: which I guess will lead us into our next segment.

1225
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 4: Yep, So we'll get into our favorite teaser in one moment,

1226
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 4: just to recap our favorite total. Stuckygoing Patriots Browns under

1227
00:58:15,120 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 4: forty five and I'm going Eagles Broncos.

1228
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 1: Under forty five.

1229
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 4: And again, if you can get a forty five and

1230
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 4: a half, that's a key number because you can get

1231
00:58:22,360 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 4: a final score of like twenty eight to seventeen, twenty

1232
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 4: four to twenty one and you still win instead of push.

1233
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:30,080
Speaker 1: So try to get that half point if you can.

1234
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 4: Don't pay for it, obviously, the total is almost never

1235
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 4: worth paying extra juice, but if you can try to

1236
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 4: find that half point.

1237
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 1: All right, now, it's time for our favorite teaser of

1238
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 1: the week.

1239
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1240
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 1: Chase, don't tease me, try to please.

1241
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 4: For those not familiar with teasers, it's when you get

1242
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:03,960
Speaker 4: to combine two or more bets, you get a certain

1243
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 4: number of points allocated to each bet.

1244
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 1: The standard is a six point teaser two teams.

1245
00:59:09,160 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 4: That's what we do here and Stuck has a lot

1246
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 4: of great content out on teasers, what key numbers to

1247
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 4: tease through and kind of look for when you're when

1248
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 4: you're creating these, how to get an edge on the market,

1249
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 4: So be sure to google Stucky and teasers or you

1250
00:59:20,760 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 4: can search it for it on actionnetwork dot com as well.

1251
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 1: Stuff where you're going with your teaser for weekn Yeah,

1252
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 1: I love this.

1253
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 3: This is a great teaser week. I've already mentioned Ravens

1254
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 3: and the Raiders, i mentioned Browns, and the Eagles, and

1255
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 3: then another one I played. I played three teasers this

1256
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 3: week are the Seahawks, which we already talked about. By

1257
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 3: the way, Russell Wilson thirty three and four when teas

1258
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 3: six points, is an underdog any any number between one

1259
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 3: and three points, he's twenty one and two. I lost

1260
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 3: one of them earlier this year by a point because

1261
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 3: of a Genosmith interception right one second before the two

1262
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:55,040
Speaker 3: minute warning, which slid to a field goal. So that's

1263
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 3: that goes on Russell Wilson's record. But he was out

1264
00:59:57,200 --> 01:00:00,760
Speaker 3: in the second half, so really you're talking twenty one

1265
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:03,240
Speaker 3: and one when he's an underdogs be won in three

1266
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 3: points between one and three and a half points teased

1267
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 3: up over the seven. So I like, I think the

1268
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 3: Seahawks at worse keep this with the one position. That's

1269
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 3: what they do. It's probably the field goal game. I'm

1270
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:16,280
Speaker 3: gonna see them with the Cowboys that betam gimm you

1271
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 3: get the Cowboys minus eight and a half teas that

1272
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 3: down to two and a half through the seven, through

1273
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:24,120
Speaker 3: the six through the three. Falcons could win last week,

1274
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 3: but it's just a really flat spot for New Orleans

1275
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 3: is a team that's still thirty first DBA, thirty second

1276
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 3: rush DBA, so they can't run the ball. That's how

1277
01:00:34,560 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 3: you really can attack this Cowboys defense. Falcons also don't

1278
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,320
Speaker 3: get any pressure the thirty first and adjusted zackery. I

1279
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 3: don't see how they'renna get many stocks. DJ Twelt's playing

1280
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 3: really well corner for the Falcons. That's about it. Bounce

1281
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 3: back spot for Dallas here after that they lay a egg.

1282
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 3: I don't think they did lose this game. So Dallas

1283
01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 3: could be Dallas. He's below the three and Seahawks from

1284
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:58,000
Speaker 3: three to three and a half up to nine to.

1285
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 4: Nine and a half. Yeah, I like those. I've already

1286
01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 4: talked about Seattle. We'll talk about Dallas a little more.

1287
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna be my survivor pick will teaser ahead,

1288
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,080
Speaker 4: but we'll get to that shortly.

1289
01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 1: For my teaser, I'm going with Seattle as well.

1290
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 4: Three and a half to nine and a half. You

1291
01:01:14,720 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 4: already mentioned the stats on Russell Wilson. There's a good

1292
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 4: chance Sattle wins this game. I mean, you have all

1293
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 4: this uncertainty with Rogers not gonna practice, So get this

1294
01:01:22,560 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 4: number where you can any way shape or form. And

1295
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:28,680
Speaker 4: then for my other Wegg going with the Minnesota Vikings

1296
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 4: plus three to plus nine.

1297
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:31,920
Speaker 1: We seem to talk about this every week as well.

1298
01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:36,480
Speaker 4: Minnesota just loses gut wrenching close games that they probably

1299
01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,400
Speaker 4: should win, and Minnesota's great at covering coming off losses

1300
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 4: and multigame moving streaks. Already talked about that as well.

1301
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:44,640
Speaker 4: But so I'll just kind of wrap it with here.

1302
01:01:44,800 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 4: Minnesota's five losses on the ear three and five. They're

1303
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 4: five losses twenty seven to twenty four to the Bengals

1304
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 4: in overtime, three point loss, thirty four to thirty three

1305
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 4: of the Cardinals, one point loss fourteen to seven to

1306
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:00,040
Speaker 4: the Browns. They're only loss by more than four and

1307
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:02,680
Speaker 4: it was twenty sixteen of the Cowboys, and thirty four

1308
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 4: to thirty one.

1309
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:06,160
Speaker 1: To the Ravens in overtime. So they have one loss

1310
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 1: by more than four points.

1311
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:11,320
Speaker 4: And then their wins, you know, two of their you know,

1312
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 4: they had a two point win against the Lions, and

1313
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 4: they won by six against the Panthers.

1314
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 1: So I'm just it's just close games all around.

1315
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 4: So you're you're getting nine here plus nine by teasing

1316
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 4: up the Vikings, combining with you know, pretty much a

1317
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 4: guy who just never loses by more than one possession

1318
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 4: in Russell Wilson.

1319
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 1: So I love this is my favorite teas there easily

1320
01:02:33,480 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 1: for this week. Just these teams, you know what they're

1321
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: gonna do. They're gonna play close games. But yeah, to

1322
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 1: recap stuck going with Seattle three and a half to

1323
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:41,120
Speaker 1: nine and a half.

1324
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 4: In Dallas eight and a half point favorite to a

1325
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:46,240
Speaker 4: two and a half point favorite. I'm going with Seattle

1326
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 4: plus three and a half to plus nine and a

1327
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 4: half in Minnesota plus three to plus nine.

1328
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 1: And now it is time for our week ten money

1329
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:56,080
Speaker 1: line underdog Parley.

1330
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 4: Turning good weekends in two great weekends, it's time for

1331
01:03:03,880 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 4: the money line parlay buck.

1332
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:10,120
Speaker 1: I mean, we are just crushing the money line dogs.

1333
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:10,680
Speaker 1: We hit again.

1334
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:15,200
Speaker 4: We are above fifty percent combined on the parlay ive

1335
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:18,280
Speaker 4: wee for five and four and then we've also had

1336
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:19,560
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks where one of us hits in

1337
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 4: the other doesn't. So whether you want to parladies or

1338
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 4: just picked them out right, we have been having some

1339
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:28,760
Speaker 4: success with these. Let's try to keep it going. You

1340
01:03:28,880 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 4: had the Giants last week, I had the Browns that

1341
01:03:32,040 --> 01:03:32,800
Speaker 4: that one cashed.

1342
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:34,080
Speaker 1: Where are you going for this week.

1343
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:37,320
Speaker 3: One of my top two picks the Sunday six pack

1344
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:40,560
Speaker 3: the Saints. I think that this is a great spot

1345
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:42,960
Speaker 3: to back them, and I think if they have the

1346
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:46,360
Speaker 3: defense that can completely shut down this Henry lists Titans

1347
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:50,400
Speaker 3: offense with injuries on the offensive line, great spot to

1348
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:52,800
Speaker 3: back Peyton here. It's got to be some fatigue for

1349
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:55,640
Speaker 3: this Titans team. They've been running really well in close games,

1350
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 3: really well in the turnover department. Give me the Saints

1351
01:03:58,280 --> 01:04:00,120
Speaker 3: plus one twenty five on the money line.

1352
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 1: Yep, like the Saints.

1353
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 4: I'll be I'll be back in them some way, shape

1354
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:06,280
Speaker 4: or form, whether it's a spread or the money line

1355
01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 4: this week, hoping maybe we can get to a three

1356
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:10,200
Speaker 4: and a half of that one too. If if you

1357
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:12,800
Speaker 4: get some bad Kamara news, I think, you know, it's

1358
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 4: it's important that they got mark Ingram just in time,

1359
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 4: because I'm hearing, you know, kind of sources saying there

1360
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,160
Speaker 4: is some pessimism about Kamara playing this week.

1361
01:04:20,560 --> 01:04:21,440
Speaker 1: Obviously it hurts them, but.

1362
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:23,560
Speaker 4: I think you're gonna get compensated with the number if

1363
01:04:23,680 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 4: if he is out, so another week the game at.

1364
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:28,000
Speaker 3: Least he did he did portray in the finals.

1365
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:31,120
Speaker 1: No, he returned it was more it was more injury great,

1366
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 1: but yeah, it was.

1367
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 4: It was more recent injury news, like, uh, you know,

1368
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:37,160
Speaker 4: they were working out some backs and I think there's

1369
01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 4: some sources close to the team.

1370
01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:41,400
Speaker 1: Say they're a little bit worried about about his availability.

1371
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 1: But again, I think I.

1372
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 4: Like it either way because you're gonna if if it

1373
01:04:45,520 --> 01:04:48,200
Speaker 4: moves off three, I mean, that's just a gift. And

1374
01:04:48,720 --> 01:04:50,760
Speaker 4: you know, even with Kamara out and if it doesn't,

1375
01:04:50,800 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 4: if he's in, then they have a great shot at

1376
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 4: winning and covering and winning the game either way. So

1377
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:58,640
Speaker 4: obviously that would hurt. But I do like the Saints.

1378
01:04:58,680 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 4: I think they're in a great spot to bound back here.

1379
01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:03,600
Speaker 4: And for my moneyline underdog for Week ten, I'm going

1380
01:05:03,640 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 4: with the Cleveland Browns plus one oh five short dog.

1381
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 1: Get it where you can.

1382
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:11,240
Speaker 4: I could see this being even money sooner than later,

1383
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 4: especially if the Patriots get bad injury news with Harris

1384
01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:19,600
Speaker 4: or Stevenson are both of those guys but already talked

1385
01:05:19,600 --> 01:05:21,400
Speaker 4: about it. I think the Browns are a better team.

1386
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:24,640
Speaker 4: They're better in overall DVA. There are six, the Patriots

1387
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:27,480
Speaker 4: are thirteenth. The Patriots are one and four at home

1388
01:05:27,520 --> 01:05:30,440
Speaker 4: this year. They've not been this intimidating team to go

1389
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:34,160
Speaker 4: into Foxborough and beat and the Browns are going to

1390
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:35,200
Speaker 4: be able to stop the run.

1391
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:37,640
Speaker 1: Which in a game like this is going to come

1392
01:05:37,720 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 1: in handy.

1393
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 4: And they can also get pressure, and that's where mac

1394
01:05:40,240 --> 01:05:43,800
Speaker 4: Jones has been a rookie. That's where he showed that

1395
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 4: he's a rookies turnover worthy play percentage multiplies by almost

1396
01:05:47,760 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 4: six x and his yards pertent drops to five and

1397
01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 4: a half. So for our moneyline underdog, probably for week ten,

1398
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 4: we got the New Orleans Saints plus one twenty five

1399
01:05:56,160 --> 01:05:58,640
Speaker 4: and the Cleveland Browns plus one oh five.

1400
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:03,120
Speaker 1: That quate to a payout of three point six x

1401
01:06:03,320 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 1: three point sixty one to be exact.

1402
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:08,000
Speaker 4: So you put one hundred dollars on it and you

1403
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:12,080
Speaker 4: come back with four sixty one if you win the bets.

1404
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 4: That's gonna do it for a runner line underdog parlay.

1405
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:17,000
Speaker 4: Now let's get into the best of the rest, which

1406
01:06:17,000 --> 01:06:20,080
Speaker 4: are the games, and we did not discuss in any

1407
01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:23,160
Speaker 4: other segment, all right, So first up, we got the

1408
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:27,960
Speaker 4: Buffalo Bills going to New York or New Jersey rather

1409
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:32,200
Speaker 4: to face the Jets plus thirteen. The total is forty seven,

1410
01:06:32,360 --> 01:06:34,520
Speaker 4: not really much of a road game in terms of

1411
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 4: travel bounce back spot for them, I mean two really slow,

1412
01:06:39,040 --> 01:06:42,560
Speaker 4: slow starts and it hurts him, and urban Meyer finally

1413
01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 4: gets his statement win and finally has something go right

1414
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 4: for him with that went over Buffalo.

1415
01:06:48,200 --> 01:06:51,120
Speaker 1: What are you thinking here? Bill's Jets thirteen point spread,

1416
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:51,919
Speaker 1: total forty seven.

1417
01:06:52,880 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bill's offense, it's just it's off. So as

1418
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 3: my only Super Bowl feature, like to see if it

1419
01:07:00,680 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 3: going here, Josh Allen just hasn't looked the same and

1420
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 3: the offense has not been right, and against a pretty

1421
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 3: weak schedule so far this season. So you know, I

1422
01:07:11,040 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 3: mean to not do anything against the Jags. Just I'm

1423
01:07:15,280 --> 01:07:17,400
Speaker 3: just happy that we don't think hear Josh Allen Scott

1424
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:21,480
Speaker 3: Hansen tell us about Josh Allen's anymore. But yeah, can

1425
01:07:21,560 --> 01:07:24,000
Speaker 3: we trust? Can we trust this Bill's offensive? Lay the number?

1426
01:07:24,000 --> 01:07:26,440
Speaker 3: It's pretty hefty number. My guy, Mike White was just

1427
01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 3: named the starter for the Jets. The Bills defense is

1428
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,520
Speaker 3: playing out of its mind. When the Bills offense is right,

1429
01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:34,200
Speaker 3: they can blow teams out. They can blow bad teams

1430
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:36,120
Speaker 3: outcause they keep throwing, and they can really step on

1431
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:38,160
Speaker 3: your throat. It's gonna be hard for me to see

1432
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,080
Speaker 3: the Jets offense doing much. Can the Bills offense find

1433
01:07:41,160 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 3: its groove? I don't know, but this is a pure,

1434
01:07:44,640 --> 01:07:45,640
Speaker 3: pure stay away for me.

1435
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think the Bills get back on

1436
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:51,560
Speaker 1: the right track here. But you're right, it's I think

1437
01:07:51,600 --> 01:07:52,320
Speaker 1: I saw the numbers.

1438
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 4: If you've been fifteenth in in offense since the h

1439
01:07:56,280 --> 01:07:58,440
Speaker 4: since going back to like last postseason, it's been a

1440
01:07:58,440 --> 01:08:00,439
Speaker 4: struggle for the Bills offense. I think, you know, there's

1441
01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 4: nothing like underlying concerning like that's a underlying concern with

1442
01:08:06,160 --> 01:08:06,439
Speaker 4: the Bills.

1443
01:08:06,440 --> 01:08:08,320
Speaker 1: It's not like they have like a bunch of injuries

1444
01:08:08,560 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 1: or you know, teams have just figured them.

1445
01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 4: Out, like I don't know, I don't know what it is,

1446
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 4: but I do expect them to get it right, like

1447
01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:16,200
Speaker 4: I think, I don't think it's as much of a

1448
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:18,720
Speaker 4: shift as like with the Chiefs, where defenses have kind

1449
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 4: of figured them out a little bit. I mean, this one,

1450
01:08:21,240 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 4: it just the Jaguars game, it just seemed like it

1451
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:27,080
Speaker 4: was just sloppy. Josh Allen just seemed like he was

1452
01:08:27,120 --> 01:08:28,840
Speaker 4: thinking slower, Like I don't know, I think you know

1453
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:31,519
Speaker 4: that offense goes as he goes. I do think they

1454
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:34,200
Speaker 4: rebound here against this Jets team that seems like it's

1455
01:08:34,200 --> 01:08:37,120
Speaker 4: going to be Mike White and Joe Flacco for the

1456
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:37,840
Speaker 4: Jets this week.

1457
01:08:37,920 --> 01:08:40,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I trust the Bill Steph ultimately, but I

1458
01:08:40,680 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 3: don't know if it's this week or but they'll get

1459
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:43,599
Speaker 3: it figured out, all right.

1460
01:08:43,720 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 1: Campa Bay Washington, both teams coming off buys.

1461
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:48,720
Speaker 4: Campa Bay favored by nine and a half on the road,

1462
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:51,320
Speaker 4: the total fifty one and a half. I kind of

1463
01:08:51,360 --> 01:08:54,560
Speaker 4: hate that this is such a big spread because he

1464
01:08:55,000 --> 01:08:56,800
Speaker 4: love to back Brady.

1465
01:08:56,840 --> 01:08:57,519
Speaker 1: In these spots.

1466
01:08:57,560 --> 01:08:59,200
Speaker 4: You know, off of bye, he's ten six and one

1467
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:02,280
Speaker 4: sixty three percent against the spread. Off a loss, Brady

1468
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:06,120
Speaker 4: is forty one and fifteen against the spread seventy three percent.

1469
01:09:07,040 --> 01:09:10,120
Speaker 4: Going back to two thousand and three, Arians is sixty

1470
01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:11,799
Speaker 4: four percent against the spread off a loss.

1471
01:09:12,120 --> 01:09:13,760
Speaker 1: You know, road favorites off of.

1472
01:09:13,800 --> 01:09:17,680
Speaker 4: Buy are sixty five, thirty five and two sixty five

1473
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,519
Speaker 4: percent against the spread. Brady on the road coming off

1474
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:23,000
Speaker 4: a loss is twenty one and six seventy eight percent

1475
01:09:23,560 --> 01:09:26,080
Speaker 4: against the spread. So this is one of those ones

1476
01:09:26,120 --> 01:09:29,280
Speaker 4: where you want to back Brady in the bucks here,

1477
01:09:29,680 --> 01:09:32,479
Speaker 4: but it's tough because you tease it down, you're still

1478
01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:34,439
Speaker 4: three and a half, so you're still missing that key

1479
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:37,519
Speaker 4: number of three. And if you bet it straight up,

1480
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:40,439
Speaker 4: I mean we've seen the Bucks struggle with that. This

1481
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:43,360
Speaker 4: Washington team who's getting a little healthier in the playoffs

1482
01:09:43,400 --> 01:09:44,759
Speaker 4: last year and that was in Washington.

1483
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:45,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we saw the Buck struggle.

1484
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:48,160
Speaker 4: So probably a stay away, even though I would like

1485
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:50,160
Speaker 4: to figure find a way to invest in Tampa Bay.

1486
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 4: I do make this number right around nine and a

1487
01:09:53,040 --> 01:09:55,960
Speaker 4: half ten, just giving the Bucks that edge, but just

1488
01:09:56,080 --> 01:09:57,840
Speaker 4: not the kind of game I like to invest in,

1489
01:09:58,120 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 4: you know, big road favorites. So stay But what are

1490
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:01,599
Speaker 4: you thinking here?

1491
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're gonna fade braiding the spot, you want

1492
01:10:03,960 --> 01:10:06,000
Speaker 3: to fade him over a touchdown favorite. He's also like

1493
01:10:06,080 --> 01:10:08,720
Speaker 3: a master of if they're up seven late, you know,

1494
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 3: just running the clock down and getting a bunch of

1495
01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:12,680
Speaker 3: first downs and then you're like, I just need a

1496
01:10:12,720 --> 01:10:14,479
Speaker 3: field goal and then all of a sudden they're kneeling

1497
01:10:14,479 --> 01:10:17,320
Speaker 3: at the two. See the Eagles game for an example.

1498
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, did what could Washington you know, Tampa,

1499
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:24,400
Speaker 3: did they figure out and get a little healthier in

1500
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:29,280
Speaker 3: their secondary, figure out like their past defense issues. Did

1501
01:10:30,479 --> 01:10:32,800
Speaker 3: Washington figure out some of their coverage issues. Their coverage

1502
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:35,840
Speaker 3: has been so bad you're gonna need that here. How

1503
01:10:35,920 --> 01:10:38,160
Speaker 3: much damage can the Washington defensive line? Do?

1504
01:10:38,760 --> 01:10:38,920
Speaker 1: You know?

1505
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:40,920
Speaker 3: I think the BND's a tad high, but you know,

1506
01:10:40,960 --> 01:10:42,840
Speaker 3: I don't have it under seven and this is like

1507
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:45,759
Speaker 3: a dead range, So no interest to me. The Washington

1508
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:49,160
Speaker 3: offense like did playing pretty well in between the twenties.

1509
01:10:49,200 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 3: They just cannot convert yards into points. Is there a

1510
01:10:53,200 --> 01:10:56,720
Speaker 3: regression coming there? Is there more of a problem. This

1511
01:10:56,920 --> 01:10:58,200
Speaker 3: line looks about right to me?

1512
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:01,080
Speaker 1: All right? Next that we have the Jaguars at the Colts.

1513
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:03,479
Speaker 1: Colts ten and a half point favorites with a total

1514
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:05,120
Speaker 1: of forty seven and a half. What do you think

1515
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:05,519
Speaker 1: of this one?

1516
01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:08,360
Speaker 3: Look? I think this is a great spot for the Colts.

1517
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:12,439
Speaker 3: It's an awful spot for the Jags. Blowout potential. I

1518
01:11:12,479 --> 01:11:14,920
Speaker 3: wanted to get under ten but missed it. So no

1519
01:11:15,120 --> 01:11:18,160
Speaker 3: interest here but the Jags, you know, off that huge

1520
01:11:18,200 --> 01:11:20,920
Speaker 3: win against the Bills, Colts extra rest, Colts have been

1521
01:11:20,960 --> 01:11:24,240
Speaker 3: playing a lot better than their record. This has potential

1522
01:11:24,320 --> 01:11:27,080
Speaker 3: to get ugly. The Jags have been running the ball

1523
01:11:27,160 --> 01:11:29,120
Speaker 3: really well, that's really what they've been doing. Can't run

1524
01:11:29,160 --> 01:11:33,559
Speaker 3: it against Indianapolis bad spot. I can't lay over ten,

1525
01:11:33,960 --> 01:11:36,519
Speaker 3: but if I had it at this game, that's who

1526
01:11:36,520 --> 01:11:36,800
Speaker 3: I bet.

1527
01:11:37,240 --> 01:11:40,360
Speaker 4: I don't know what to think of the Jaguars at

1528
01:11:40,400 --> 01:11:42,040
Speaker 4: this moment, only because I think they're a little bit

1529
01:11:42,040 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 4: in transition. They're switching from and Irman Meyer talked about this,

1530
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:48,320
Speaker 4: but they came into the year thinking they wanted to

1531
01:11:48,360 --> 01:11:51,120
Speaker 4: be this man coverage defense and that obviously didn't work.

1532
01:11:51,680 --> 01:11:54,639
Speaker 4: Now they've gone to more of his own heavy scheme,

1533
01:11:54,680 --> 01:11:55,880
Speaker 4: and I think that's what tripped.

1534
01:11:55,680 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 1: Up the Bills.

1535
01:11:56,160 --> 01:11:58,000
Speaker 4: I think the Bill's kind of prepared for one thing,

1536
01:11:58,600 --> 01:12:02,320
Speaker 4: and the Jaguars showed him something different, and that kind

1537
01:12:02,360 --> 01:12:04,040
Speaker 4: of you could see Josh Allen just like it was

1538
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:06,880
Speaker 4: a beat way to beat slow. Uh So now obviously

1539
01:12:06,960 --> 01:12:09,280
Speaker 4: have more tape on that, and it's you know, you're

1540
01:12:09,280 --> 01:12:10,920
Speaker 4: gonna go back and look at the last few games.

1541
01:12:10,960 --> 01:12:12,599
Speaker 1: So I think the Coats will be a little more prepared,

1542
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:13,960
Speaker 1: won't be caught off guard.

1543
01:12:14,040 --> 01:12:16,280
Speaker 4: And yeah, the Jags offense still have scored nine points

1544
01:12:16,280 --> 01:12:18,840
Speaker 4: against the Bills. The Colts aren't gonna win and run

1545
01:12:18,880 --> 01:12:22,719
Speaker 4: the football, so really, you know, I kind of agree

1546
01:12:22,760 --> 01:12:25,240
Speaker 4: that we would like to invest in the Colts somehow,

1547
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:29,439
Speaker 4: But it's tough because you don't know exactly where their

1548
01:12:29,560 --> 01:12:31,479
Speaker 4: offense is going to be against the Jags d here.

1549
01:12:31,600 --> 01:12:33,479
Speaker 1: You know, is the jag Z gonna be able.

1550
01:12:33,320 --> 01:12:36,519
Speaker 4: To continue to have some success, you know with this

1551
01:12:36,680 --> 01:12:40,439
Speaker 4: kind of revamped or rethought scheme or or is it

1552
01:12:40,560 --> 01:12:41,840
Speaker 4: just going to be now that there's a week of

1553
01:12:41,920 --> 01:12:45,040
Speaker 4: tape and everything, and you know, we saw the mistakes

1554
01:12:45,040 --> 01:12:46,560
Speaker 4: the Bills made that the Coats would be ready for it.

1555
01:12:46,680 --> 01:12:48,720
Speaker 1: You know, it's a big numbers, so probably to stay

1556
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:49,120
Speaker 1: away from me.

1557
01:12:50,120 --> 01:12:53,000
Speaker 4: Uh and then our final game, the Sunday night football

1558
01:12:53,600 --> 01:12:55,920
Speaker 4: matchup that I know you'll have a write up for

1559
01:12:56,720 --> 01:12:58,320
Speaker 4: later in the week, so everybody should look out for

1560
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:01,240
Speaker 4: that in the UH Action Network app or a Action

1561
01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:05,840
Speaker 4: Network dot com. But the Chiefs the Raiders Vegas plus

1562
01:13:05,920 --> 01:13:08,240
Speaker 4: two and a half at home, the total fifty two

1563
01:13:08,280 --> 01:13:08,720
Speaker 4: and a half.

1564
01:13:09,320 --> 01:13:10,920
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one? Yeah?

1565
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:12,920
Speaker 3: I think that I already mentioned I teazed the Raiders

1566
01:13:12,960 --> 01:13:15,720
Speaker 3: with the Ravens getting them over eight. Here they're the

1567
01:13:15,840 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 3: Chiefs are something wrong with the offense and guess who

1568
01:13:18,560 --> 01:13:20,560
Speaker 3: used to provided who used to have the blueprint the

1569
01:13:20,640 --> 01:13:23,839
Speaker 3: only blueprint to slow them down? Gus Bradleys, the defensive

1570
01:13:23,880 --> 01:13:27,680
Speaker 3: coordinator for the Raiders. Now, go back to those Chargers games.

1571
01:13:27,720 --> 01:13:31,760
Speaker 3: There's the only games where Mahomes was always off. In

1572
01:13:31,800 --> 01:13:33,920
Speaker 3: those Chargers games, it would always be low scoring and

1573
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:36,720
Speaker 3: the offense didn't look right. They would have safeties way

1574
01:13:36,840 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 3: back and they would get pressure with Ingram and Bosa. Well,

1575
01:13:40,520 --> 01:13:44,040
Speaker 3: the Raiders don't have a great secondary, but they can

1576
01:13:44,120 --> 01:13:46,600
Speaker 3: get pressure, and they have the scheme on the back end.

1577
01:13:46,600 --> 01:13:49,439
Speaker 3: They have two ends that can get natural pressure. Mahomes

1578
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:51,240
Speaker 3: just doesn't look right. He's trying to adjust to this

1579
01:13:51,360 --> 01:13:54,120
Speaker 3: new offense, but he just has this tendency to just

1580
01:13:54,200 --> 01:13:56,439
Speaker 3: want to roll out or throw it deep when it's

1581
01:13:56,520 --> 01:14:00,000
Speaker 3: not there. The Chiefs have to adjust to this new world.

1582
01:14:00,080 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 3: They're gonna have to run it short pass and we'll

1583
01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:06,040
Speaker 3: see if they can. If they can do that, but

1584
01:14:06,160 --> 01:14:07,560
Speaker 3: the Chiefs offense is just not right. I don't know

1585
01:14:07,560 --> 01:14:10,240
Speaker 3: if Iyreek Hill is fully healthy. Many things going on

1586
01:14:10,360 --> 01:14:12,720
Speaker 3: with that offense. I mean, how many times you have

1587
01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:14,840
Speaker 3: how many times you're gonna play a bad defense and

1588
01:14:14,880 --> 01:14:17,240
Speaker 3: nothing's happened. They played the Giants, they played the Titans,

1589
01:14:17,280 --> 01:14:19,360
Speaker 3: and just nothing. We have to get used to. Maybe

1590
01:14:19,439 --> 01:14:21,519
Speaker 3: this is closer to what we could expect with the

1591
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 3: Chiefs offense for the time being. The defense is still bad.

1592
01:14:26,439 --> 01:14:28,080
Speaker 3: Derek Carr. They want to blitz a lot. That's not

1593
01:14:28,200 --> 01:14:30,120
Speaker 3: good against Derek Carr. Derek Carr should be able to

1594
01:14:30,160 --> 01:14:34,320
Speaker 3: carve them up here. And I mean, how you can

1595
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:36,840
Speaker 3: count on Daniel Sorenson for giving up a touchdown? That's

1596
01:14:36,920 --> 01:14:39,479
Speaker 3: that's one given in this game. Seems to do that

1597
01:14:39,600 --> 01:14:43,080
Speaker 3: every week. But yeah, probably closer to a coin fill game.

1598
01:14:43,200 --> 01:14:45,160
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a game that was seven last

1599
01:14:45,240 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 3: year here. The Raiders have played the Chiefs well even

1600
01:14:48,640 --> 01:14:51,000
Speaker 3: before these Chiefs issues. They beat them last year in

1601
01:14:51,120 --> 01:14:53,280
Speaker 3: Narra and they should have won at home last year.

1602
01:14:54,920 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 3: So I think that this is a close game, really

1603
01:14:58,479 --> 01:15:01,040
Speaker 3: important game for both teams of the division for playoffs standings.

1604
01:15:01,200 --> 01:15:03,200
Speaker 3: So getting the Raiders from two and a half up

1605
01:15:03,240 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 3: to eight and a half I think is the move here.

1606
01:15:05,560 --> 01:15:07,120
Speaker 3: And yeah, I'll share more of my thoughts on that

1607
01:15:07,240 --> 01:15:09,000
Speaker 3: right up. One xnork dot Com and.

1608
01:15:10,000 --> 01:15:12,559
Speaker 4: The x Neworkap probably to be closer to a coin

1609
01:15:12,600 --> 01:15:15,479
Speaker 4: flip game in terms of the line, but I agree,

1610
01:15:15,479 --> 01:15:16,920
Speaker 4: I think, I mean, I think there might be value

1611
01:15:16,960 --> 01:15:19,360
Speaker 4: on this total as well. I think fifty two and

1612
01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:21,560
Speaker 4: a half is a little high because we're still not

1613
01:15:21,680 --> 01:15:25,080
Speaker 4: fully adjusting the market for the Chiefs offensive struggles. They

1614
01:15:25,120 --> 01:15:27,720
Speaker 4: played in a lot of just while we're scoring games lately,

1615
01:15:27,840 --> 01:15:29,760
Speaker 4: so maybe I will get the total as well.

1616
01:15:29,840 --> 01:15:32,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is this Vegas team here. I think

1617
01:15:32,960 --> 01:15:33,679
Speaker 1: it's a live dog.

1618
01:15:36,200 --> 01:15:40,439
Speaker 2: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by betmgm, and

1619
01:15:40,520 --> 01:15:43,880
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1647
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:10,559
Speaker 2: much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

1648
01:17:12,200 --> 01:17:15,240
Speaker 1: Let's close out with our Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1649
01:17:19,560 --> 01:17:24,920
Speaker 5: The Survivorpool pick of the Week.

1650
01:17:26,439 --> 01:17:28,879
Speaker 1: I stuck. You got Miami last week, so you survived.

1651
01:17:28,880 --> 01:17:31,360
Speaker 1: I took the Coats. I survived. Where are you going

1652
01:17:31,400 --> 01:17:32,400
Speaker 1: this week? Yeah?

1653
01:17:32,439 --> 01:17:34,400
Speaker 3: I didn't take the Colts last week because I wanted

1654
01:17:34,400 --> 01:17:36,680
Speaker 3: to save them for this week. I went with the Dolphins.

1655
01:17:38,000 --> 01:17:40,000
Speaker 3: It was scary in the beginning of the game, but

1656
01:17:40,160 --> 01:17:42,519
Speaker 3: it was mainly sweat free, so I'm happy I did

1657
01:17:42,520 --> 01:17:43,800
Speaker 3: because I wanted to use the Colts here, and then

1658
01:17:43,840 --> 01:17:46,040
Speaker 3: the Jags won. I mean, talk about a dream scenario

1659
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:48,840
Speaker 3: that I got the Jags off of that win. So Colts, Colts, Colts,

1660
01:17:48,840 --> 01:17:50,040
Speaker 3: this is the spot Adam saved for.

1661
01:17:50,720 --> 01:17:51,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, that made sense.

1662
01:17:51,880 --> 01:17:54,720
Speaker 4: Obviously, wish I had the coach this week, or even

1663
01:17:54,800 --> 01:17:56,760
Speaker 4: the Bills, but used them in Week eight. So I'm

1664
01:17:56,800 --> 01:17:58,439
Speaker 4: gonna go with the Dallas Cowboys here. Just kind of

1665
01:17:58,479 --> 01:18:00,519
Speaker 4: banging on a bounce back spot. You know, I do

1666
01:18:00,680 --> 01:18:02,840
Speaker 4: think that, you know, Tyron Smith being banged up or

1667
01:18:03,000 --> 01:18:06,120
Speaker 4: probably even maybe missing a game obviously impacts that offense.

1668
01:18:06,200 --> 01:18:07,680
Speaker 4: But I just think you're gonna get a much more

1669
01:18:07,720 --> 01:18:11,040
Speaker 4: focused Dallas team against one of the worst defenses in

1670
01:18:11,160 --> 01:18:13,320
Speaker 4: the league and a let down spot for Atlanta too.

1671
01:18:13,400 --> 01:18:17,160
Speaker 4: So you have Dallas coming off a spot bounce back spot,

1672
01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:19,040
Speaker 4: and a way I'm coming off a letdown spot and

1673
01:18:19,080 --> 01:18:21,960
Speaker 4: I'm looking at Dallas to schedule down a stretch. They

1674
01:18:22,000 --> 01:18:23,400
Speaker 4: are one of the better teams in the league, but

1675
01:18:23,439 --> 01:18:27,320
Speaker 4: their home games that they have left on schedule after

1676
01:18:27,400 --> 01:18:31,599
Speaker 4: Atlanta the Raiders not an easy out Washington Football Team

1677
01:18:31,680 --> 01:18:34,880
Speaker 4: divisional matchup. Never want to get too cute there. And

1678
01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:37,639
Speaker 4: then the Arizona Cardinals, which you're not. You're not picking

1679
01:18:37,680 --> 01:18:40,200
Speaker 4: anyone against the Cardinals right now. So, uh, that's the

1680
01:18:40,360 --> 01:18:43,439
Speaker 4: only three home games after this Atlanta game that Dallas

1681
01:18:43,479 --> 01:18:46,280
Speaker 4: has left on the dock, so probably won't use them

1682
01:18:46,320 --> 01:18:47,280
Speaker 4: if I don't use them this week.

1683
01:18:47,320 --> 01:18:49,840
Speaker 1: So I have a Dallas, Yeah I have.

1684
01:18:50,120 --> 01:18:52,479
Speaker 3: I'm saving Dallas and one of my survivorals in the

1685
01:18:52,560 --> 01:18:57,000
Speaker 3: Circus Survivor pool. I'm one of six hundred ish left.

1686
01:18:57,040 --> 01:19:00,960
Speaker 3: Congrats and that's for sick. There's six million dollars that. Yeah,

1687
01:19:01,320 --> 01:19:04,200
Speaker 3: you have to pick. It's twenty picks. It's also Christmas

1688
01:19:04,240 --> 01:19:07,639
Speaker 3: Slate and Thanksgiving slate. You have to pick separate picks.

1689
01:19:08,080 --> 01:19:10,160
Speaker 3: You look at the Thanksgiving slate, it's like Bills at

1690
01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:14,880
Speaker 3: Saints Bears. It lines Cowboys at home against the Raiders,

1691
01:19:15,479 --> 01:19:17,479
Speaker 3: Like I have to save the Cowboys there. So that's

1692
01:19:17,600 --> 01:19:20,719
Speaker 3: just that's the one off survivor pool that I wanted

1693
01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:22,920
Speaker 3: to mention and root for me. I'll keep you guys

1694
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:26,440
Speaker 3: updated if I can. If evermyer doesn't end me this weekend.

1695
01:19:27,720 --> 01:19:28,040
Speaker 1: Good luck.

1696
01:19:28,200 --> 01:19:30,240
Speaker 4: Now, that's that's impressive. Good luck there, and yeah, that's

1697
01:19:30,280 --> 01:19:32,000
Speaker 4: definitely the right pick for me. I don't have the

1698
01:19:32,040 --> 01:19:35,920
Speaker 4: Thanksgiving to worry about, so I will go Dallas. But yeah,

1699
01:19:35,960 --> 01:19:38,200
Speaker 4: we'll be rooting for you and hopefully you can take

1700
01:19:38,240 --> 01:19:40,720
Speaker 4: that home. So that's going to wrap it up though

1701
01:19:40,760 --> 01:19:45,160
Speaker 4: for our week ten Action Network podcast, we wish you

1702
01:19:45,240 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 4: guys good luck this week. You can find Stuck on

1703
01:19:48,040 --> 01:19:50,479
Speaker 4: Twitter at Stuck you Too. You can find me at

1704
01:19:50,600 --> 01:19:52,679
Speaker 4: Chris Raybond. You can find us at those same handles.

1705
01:19:53,160 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 4: In the free award winning Action Network app, we can

1706
01:19:56,120 --> 01:19:59,439
Speaker 4: follow all of our bets and track yours for free.

1707
01:20:00,040 --> 01:20:01,719
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out all of our NFL betting

1708
01:20:01,760 --> 01:20:06,120
Speaker 4: content at actionnetwork dot com and in the Action App,

1709
01:20:06,280 --> 01:20:08,760
Speaker 4: and you can follow all of our picks on the

1710
01:20:08,840 --> 01:20:12,799
Speaker 4: app by searching Sunday six pack in the follow feature.

1711
01:20:13,360 --> 01:20:15,880
Speaker 1: Until next week, let's get this money go