Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Lots happened since our last
Speaker 1: episode where we broke down some NFL futures and the
Speaker 1: Oscar odds, and the NFL offseason just keeps rolling right along.
Speaker 1: So today we're going to break down some win totals
Speaker 1: for the AFC. With me to do that is Adam Burke,
Speaker 1: a sports betting writer over at bangbook dot com host
Speaker 1: of Bang the Book Radio. You can follow him on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 1: me today.
Speaker 2: How you doing, I'm good man, How you doing? Not bad?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a little weird right now, obviously for
Speaker 1: many reasons, and there are a lot of more serious
Speaker 1: things going on in the country than just sports, but
Speaker 1: the complete lack of sports. I mean, I watched with
Speaker 1: my kid game seven of the twenty sixteen NBA Finals,
Speaker 1: where you know, Lebron and the Cavs won, and it
Speaker 1: was it just like, it reminded me of how bizarre
Speaker 1: it is right now to not have anything at all
Speaker 1: just to turn on and watch, you know what, I mean.
Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean it's you know, that's a
Speaker 2: pretty big day for us around here. That's something you'd
Speaker 2: almost remember quite well. I mean those are those are
Speaker 2: the good times, the simpler days, I guess. But the
Speaker 2: one nice thing I guess about, you know, talking NFL,
Speaker 2: is that this is kind of the point that the
Speaker 2: offseason would be in any way. You know, we had
Speaker 2: a draft coming up in ten days or so, and
Speaker 2: you know, we were just looking at win totals and
Speaker 2: futures and all that. It's it's not like we're sitting
Speaker 2: here talking about how we don't have baseball, which I
Speaker 2: know is very hard for both of us.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it is. And by the way, Adam is
Speaker 1: from Cleveland, in case you didn't know that, or at
Speaker 1: least he is a Cleveland fan. Are you born and
Speaker 1: raised in Cleveland or what?
Speaker 2: Born and raised? I actually grew up about ten minutes
Speaker 2: southwest of downtown.
Speaker 1: Well, I remember you had last year when we talked
Speaker 1: in an early episode. You had a correct take about
Speaker 1: the Browns, you know, in their their future to win
Speaker 1: the division, and you were not quite as bullish as
Speaker 1: the general consensus. So you had that one peg. So
Speaker 1: I'll be interested to hear what you think about their
Speaker 1: own under today. So for today, as we said, we're
Speaker 1: gonna go division by division. In the AFC, we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about the over unders for every team in
Speaker 1: the division. Now, for the odds, we're going to be
Speaker 1: using the consensus over unders from bettingpros dot com. That's
Speaker 1: the aggregate of the odds that are available in the market,
Speaker 1: and you can find those over at bettingpros dot com
Speaker 1: slash NFL hyphen wins. And you can find more than
Speaker 1: just the win totals or team futures. If you're interested
Speaker 1: in the draft, go to bettingpros dot com slash draft
Speaker 1: hyphen props. Those are consensus lines on things like how
Speaker 1: many of any position are going to be drafted, or
Speaker 1: the first pick by team and things like that. You
Speaker 1: can find lines on pretty much every potential thing to
Speaker 1: bet in the NFL, So go check it out, all right, Adam,
Speaker 1: Let's start with the AFC East here, a division which
Speaker 1: should be a little more interesting than in past years.
Speaker 1: Right now, the consensus lines are the Bills are over
Speaker 1: under of nine, the Patriots also over under of nine,
Speaker 1: Jets are an over under of six and a half,
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins are an over under of six. So
Speaker 1: any of these over under, any of these bets, do
Speaker 1: you find enticing.
Speaker 2: I think it's you know, really tough to kind of
Speaker 2: figure out right now because we're still sort of in
Speaker 2: a holding pattern with New England. I think that New
Speaker 2: England it's very hard to see them going into the
Speaker 2: season with you know, Jared Stidham and Brian Hoyer at quarterback,
Speaker 2: and yeah, maybe they take one in the first round,
Speaker 2: but I can't imagine that Bill Belichick's gonna run a
Speaker 2: rookie quarterback out there right away, So maybe Hoyer is
Speaker 2: kind of a placeholder something like that. But I mean,
Speaker 2: this defense is still exceptional, you know, it's still one
Speaker 2: of the best defenses in the AFC, if not the
Speaker 2: best defense in the AFC. So it's tough to kind
Speaker 2: of ascertain what to do with the win totals here
Speaker 2: in the AFC East until we get more clarity on
Speaker 2: New England's quarterback situation, because if they upgrade at quarterback,
Speaker 2: this could very well be a team that goes eleven
Speaker 2: and five, you know, or has a very very strong
Speaker 2: ten and six record, which at that point in time,
Speaker 2: would you know, positive or would potentially, I should say
Speaker 2: impact the Bills impact those two head to head meetings
Speaker 2: with the Jets. Same thing about their games with the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: So I couldn't really do too much with the AFC
Speaker 2: East right now until I figure out where New England's
Speaker 2: kind of going to fall, because you know, those head
Speaker 2: to head games with two per team are very important.
Speaker 1: So let me ask you something, what does upgrade the
Speaker 1: quarterback position mean to you? Does that mean literally sign
Speaker 1: anybody else or trade for anybody else or anything like
Speaker 1: that that's going on. I mean, you we obviously have
Speaker 1: you know, you've got Jameis Winston and Cam Newton out there.
Speaker 1: The Bengals are of course looking to deal Andy Dalton
Speaker 1: if they get one of those guys, is that completely
Speaker 1: change your outlook on this division? I mean, how would
Speaker 1: you feel about an over under of nine if they
Speaker 1: made one of those moves?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would have to go over at
Speaker 2: that point. And you know, I've even kind of seen
Speaker 2: some of the places out there in the offshore market
Speaker 2: kind of have a head to head matchup between New
Speaker 2: England and Buffalo, and you know who would have more
Speaker 2: wins in a battle between those two teams and I mean, look,
Speaker 2: if New England makes an upgrade at quarterback, I think
Speaker 2: their win total nine and a half looks good. You know,
Speaker 2: I don't think that they would go all the way
Speaker 2: up to ten necessarily. And as I look at the
Speaker 2: betting pros consensus ods, you know, some individual books out
Speaker 2: there do have nine and a half. I mean, is
Speaker 2: Dalton a half win upgrade over you know, Hoyer or
Speaker 2: Stidham or let's say they take you know, Jordan Love
Speaker 2: or something like that. I think, so is Winston and upgrade. Yeah,
Speaker 2: he doesn't have the same skill position talent that he
Speaker 2: had in Tampa Bay, but I mean he's still a
Speaker 2: better option, I would say, than Hoyer and Stidham. And
Speaker 2: you know, Cam Newton could be an option here too.
Speaker 2: I think New England, if I had to bet it
Speaker 2: right now, I'm still taking New England to win this division.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be in love with it. But given the
Speaker 2: fact that both the Patriots and the Bills are sitting
Speaker 2: there at nine, I mean I would have to look
Speaker 2: probably more over nine with New England than I would
Speaker 2: with Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I think it's fair. I think that I think let's
Speaker 1: start with your first point, which is It is nearly
Speaker 1: impossible to accurately kind of assess this division without knowing
Speaker 1: what the Patriots are going to be doing. Right now,
Speaker 1: let me start with this. I guess if they don't
Speaker 1: make an upgrade on quarterback, let's say they go with Stidham. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's say they say, this is what we're doing, this
Speaker 1: is our future. We like what we've seen, despite the
Speaker 1: fact that he's thrown what four passes in the NFL.
Speaker 1: They go, it's Stidham. What do you think about the
Speaker 1: over under nine? And you pointed it out, by the way,
Speaker 1: when you look at the consensus odds, it's nine nine
Speaker 1: and a half, nine nine and a half, nine nine
Speaker 1: and a half, So it's one of two ways at
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Personally, if they don't make an upgrade,
Speaker 1: I'm easy on the under here. I get that the
Speaker 1: Patriots are incredible. They haven't won fewer than ten games
Speaker 1: since two thousand and two. The defense is good, they're
Speaker 1: very good. But they have lost a boatload so far
Speaker 1: in free agency. Right they lost Kyle Van Nooy, they
Speaker 1: lost Jamie Collins, they lost Shelton, they lost Harmon, they
Speaker 1: lost a Landon Roberts. You know, I get that they
Speaker 1: still have you know, Stefan Gilmore, and they still have
Speaker 1: mccordy and everything like that. But you know, the thing is, defensively,
Speaker 1: they're very good, but they're not this elite unit that
Speaker 1: everybody kind of thought that they were because they were
Speaker 1: beaten the heck out of that horrible offensive competition that
Speaker 1: they faced earlier in the year. They're a very solid
Speaker 1: defensive unit, but I don't think they're good enough for
Speaker 1: the offense to carry them. And they just have done
Speaker 1: nothing right now. On offense. I mean they tagged you know,
Speaker 1: Joe Toney, they still have Mohammed Sanu, they still have
Speaker 1: Marcus Kennon, but they really I mean, unless you're saying
Speaker 1: Nikhil Harry or Jacoby Myers are gonna take a huge
Speaker 1: leap or they're gonna do something with you know, their
Speaker 1: twelve picks to really make a move or a trade
Speaker 1: or something like that, this team is not very good.
Speaker 1: I mean, their defense is is decent, but their offense
Speaker 1: and you know, all I hear about all the time.
Speaker 1: And again I live in New England, so this is
Speaker 1: certainly what I get from my in laws and everything
Speaker 1: like that, and just from the crowd around here in
Speaker 1: the sports talk radio is you know, you think back
Speaker 1: to the Matt Castle gear, but you know, this is
Speaker 1: not Randy Moss and Wes Welker sitting there on offense.
Speaker 1: You know, it's not as if he can just Belichick
Speaker 1: and just do this without Brady. This is not a
Speaker 1: very good offensive team. So for me, absent a major
Speaker 1: you know, absent upgraded quarterback for sure, but maybe even
Speaker 1: more than that. If it's nine and a half, I'm
Speaker 1: still going under. I'd probably stay away at nine, I guess,
Speaker 1: But for the nine and a half, I really think
Speaker 1: I lean under.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean those are all fair points. And you know, again,
Speaker 2: I mean there are a lot of moving parts with
Speaker 2: this team, and we know that, you know, they're very,
Speaker 2: very sharp and very smart organizationally, and there also has
Speaker 2: been a brain drain in terms of the coaching staff too.
Speaker 2: You know, you lose a guy like a Jerry Schaplinsky,
Speaker 2: you know, somebody like that, a guy that, yeah he's
Speaker 2: not an offensive coordinator, Yeah he's not going to get
Speaker 2: the same headlines, but a guy that's you know, been
Speaker 2: in that quarterback room, been in that offensive room, obviously
Speaker 2: a very smart guy. Three Super Bowl rings. Now I
Speaker 2: don't even think he's forty yet, or he's pretty close
Speaker 2: to it. That's another byproduct of being really good is
Speaker 2: that you start losing some very smart people within the
Speaker 2: organization as well. Now that being said, you'll get their
Speaker 2: eight home games here, they get San Francisco and they
Speaker 2: get Baltimore at home, two very very difficult games. Otherwise,
Speaker 2: you've got the three Division teams Denver, Las Vegas, and
Speaker 2: Arizona all six of those very very winnable games. And
Speaker 2: on the road. I'm low on the Rams for this season,
Speaker 2: which I'm sure we'll talk about in a little bit.
Speaker 2: I'm very on Seattle for this season. Those are two
Speaker 2: road games that there'll be an underdog in in all likelihood,
Speaker 2: but I think they're kind of there for the taking.
Speaker 2: The three Division games. Houston, I mean, who knows if
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson doesn't just walk out on that team at
Speaker 2: some point here with everything that's going on with them,
Speaker 2: Kansas City and the Chargers a couple of tough road
Speaker 2: games against the AFC West. I don't think their schedule
Speaker 2: is that bad, and I think if they've got a
Speaker 2: quarterback that doesn't actively hurt them the schedule sets up
Speaker 2: relatively well for them to be, you know, a ten
Speaker 2: and six type team if everything falls into place. But again,
Speaker 2: you're talking about a much thinner margin for error than
Speaker 2: we've seen in the past. I think it's more of
Speaker 2: a commentary to me on I don't think Buffalo is
Speaker 2: as good as people think they are, and I think
Speaker 2: the Dolphins will be better. I don't think the Jets
Speaker 2: necessarily will be. It doesn't shock me.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, sorry, as a Jets fan, I have to
Speaker 1: do that every time somebody says that the Jets are
Speaker 1: not going to be very good, which, to be fair,
Speaker 1: it's accurate and happens on every single podcast, So I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: go ahead.
Speaker 2: No, that's all good. But I just I mean, I
Speaker 2: could see five and one in the division. Again, I
Speaker 2: could see them splitting with Buffalo and you know, winning
Speaker 2: the other four games. And I mean, maybe your view
Speaker 2: is different from mine and the Dolphins and the Jets,
Speaker 2: and maybe that's kind of how we differ a little
Speaker 2: bit here. But again I think that the Patriots until
Speaker 2: I'm proven otherwise that you know, maybe it was all Brady,
Speaker 2: or maybe it was all you know, some of these
Speaker 2: quality control guys and all that. I just feel like
Speaker 2: Belichick finds away.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I look, I certainly cannot dispute the Belichick finds away,
Speaker 1: because Belichick finds away. It is worth noting you're talking
Speaker 1: about the schedule, and again this is not the best
Speaker 1: way to necessarily analyze the schedule. They actually have the
Speaker 1: toughest schedule in the league in terms of opponents win percentage.
Speaker 1: Last year it's five thirty seven. That's the toughest in
Speaker 1: the league. The whole AFC East has a very difficult
Speaker 1: schedule because again they play the NFC West, which is
Speaker 1: a very solid division where you know, you've got the
Speaker 1: Seahawks and you've got the forty nine Ers. The Cardinals
Speaker 1: are going to be improved. The Rams are still putting
Speaker 1: up a fight, and then they've got the West, which
Speaker 1: again you talked about it not that great from top
Speaker 1: to bottom. The Chiefs are, of course fantastic. The Broncos
Speaker 1: are going to be improved. The Chargers are a better
Speaker 1: team than they showed last year, even losing Rivers and
Speaker 1: going to Tyro. Taylor are not really sure that it's
Speaker 1: a downgrade at this point in their careers, but they
Speaker 1: lost all those one score games so they could be better,
Speaker 1: and then you know they were the best team in
Speaker 1: the division. They're going to get the Ravens and then
Speaker 1: the Texans, which again, you're right if there's not a
Speaker 1: mutiny over there or Bill O'Brien doesn't trade the entire
Speaker 1: team for you know, four tires or something for his
Speaker 1: new truck. But yeah, it's an interesting thing, and I
Speaker 1: agree the division itself. I like Buffalo. I don't necessarily
Speaker 1: expect you know, they've lost a lot of pieces, but
Speaker 1: they've had a lot of pieces on defense. The big
Speaker 1: thing is digs. But again, you've got basically the least
Speaker 1: accurate deep ball quarterback in the game with Josh Allen,
Speaker 1: So it's really tough to know what you're gonna see
Speaker 1: from then. With the Jets, yeah, I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be okay like they were last year. They've built up
Speaker 1: their offensive line right now. It's gonna have to see
Speaker 1: what they do in the draft, if they had a receiver,
Speaker 1: or whether or not they had an edge rusher, but
Speaker 1: they obviously need help. The Dolphins, actually you mentioned them.
Speaker 1: That's the one that I do like. Here is the
Speaker 1: over under of six and again it does depend a
Speaker 1: little bit on the Patriots, but you know, look they
Speaker 1: finished five and four down the stretch. They've had a
Speaker 1: monstrous offseason with Byron Jones, who's you know, between him
Speaker 1: and Saving Howard, they're looking really good. They added Shaq
Speaker 1: Lawson and Kyle van Noy and the Landon Roberts and
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Agba. The defense is going to be a lot better.
Speaker 1: And on offense they've added a little bit. Jordan Howard
Speaker 1: is better than you know, whoever they were throwing out
Speaker 1: there last year, especially Klin Bilage, Ted Carris, Eric Flowers,
Speaker 1: you know, Devonte Parker, still developing, Preston Williams if he's healthy,
Speaker 1: Micah Sicki. They've got fourteen picks, three in the first round.
Speaker 1: You know, I get that Fits is not the future,
Speaker 1: but he's capable of winning games. Again, tough schedule here,
Speaker 1: but they don't go to Arrowhead, they don't go to Seattle,
Speaker 1: so at least when they get those they'll have a
Speaker 1: quote unquote fighting chance and the fact that they'll be home.
Speaker 1: They get the Jags, they're home against the Bengals. They've
Speaker 1: got a lot of games that they can win, especially
Speaker 1: you mentioned the Jets. Depend on what happens with the
Speaker 1: pat So for me right now, if there's one pick
Speaker 1: in this division that I like, and I don't love
Speaker 1: any of them, but if I had to go with
Speaker 1: one for me, it would be taking the Dolphins over
Speaker 1: six wins.
Speaker 2: I agree with that. And you know too, I mean,
Speaker 2: you look at the moves that they've made in free
Speaker 2: agency here and kind of the the expectations for them
Speaker 2: in the draft where they are going to address the
Speaker 2: offensive side and you know, quite possibly address the quarterback
Speaker 2: position as well. But Flores is a defensive guy by note,
Speaker 2: by trade, So you get a Byron Jones, you get
Speaker 2: some pass rushers. I think Emmanuel Lagba is a very
Speaker 2: very good player, just wound up getting overshadowed in Cleveland
Speaker 2: because you know, Miles Garrett's here, and then you get
Speaker 2: you know, Kyle like Kyle van Noy, who Flores obviously knows, well,
Speaker 2: they've got a lot of pieces to build around here
Speaker 2: and something else you really like about Miami and obviously
Speaker 2: they got off to the atrocious start last year, but
Speaker 2: he improved the culture of that team. Flores made it
Speaker 2: a point to do that very early in the process,
Speaker 2: to get rid of guys that weren't buying in get
Speaker 2: rid of guys that were kind of dragging everybody else down.
Speaker 2: And we saw what happened at the tail end of
Speaker 2: the year when they kind of changed that culture. They
Speaker 2: got guys that wanted to be there, guys that wanted
Speaker 2: to play. They were a much more cohesive unit. So
Speaker 2: I think you're definitely onto something there. It's obviously scary
Speaker 2: thinging about this team. You'll potentially having to improve to
Speaker 2: seven wins to go over a win total, right, but
Speaker 2: you've got to like everything that they've been doing here
Speaker 2: over the last eighteen months.
Speaker 1: No, absolutely, And again, remember they had five wins, but
Speaker 1: that was all in their last nine games, right, I
Speaker 1: mean they were basically tanking, so they finished strong. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I think they could get there. It's a two win
Speaker 1: improvement is something that kind of shocks you a little bit,
Speaker 1: But with all they've done and how well they played
Speaker 1: down the stretch, I'm willing to buy it. So if
Speaker 1: we did go with one in that division, that would
Speaker 1: be my pick. Let's move on here to the AFC North.
Speaker 1: You've got the Ravens at over under of eleven, which
Speaker 1: is a big number, of course, but they earned it
Speaker 1: by going fourteen to two. Steelers are over under nine,
Speaker 1: the Browns over under eight and a half, and the
Speaker 1: Bengals amasely over under of five. So which of any
Speaker 1: of these do you like?
Speaker 2: All right? Well, be a homer here, right, because the
Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns are going to be better than they were
Speaker 2: last year, and I like this team to go over
Speaker 2: eight and a half here. I see there's a couple
Speaker 2: of rogue eights out there as well on the betting board.
Speaker 2: I like this team a lot. I mean they're loaded
Speaker 2: with skill position talent on offense. Now they pick up
Speaker 2: a guy like Austin Hooper, and most importantly, Kevin Stefanski
Speaker 2: seems to know what he's doing. Now, obviously we'll see
Speaker 2: if that translates into being a head coach, but as
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator, as a play caller, as a guy
Speaker 2: that knows how to get all of his guys involved,
Speaker 2: much like he did there in Minnesota. I mean, they've
Speaker 2: got so many weapons, and defensively they're very, very good.
Speaker 2: They'll improve the offensive line here in the draft. And
Speaker 2: you mentioned it in the top of today's show that
Speaker 2: last year I talked down about them because they had
Speaker 2: such a challenging schedule, in particular early on in the
Speaker 2: season when they were trying to get everybody acclimated to
Speaker 2: what Kitchens wanted to do and all that. Their schedule
Speaker 2: is much much softer this year. I think I saw
Speaker 2: they go from like thirtieth and strength to schedule to
Speaker 2: you know, ninth, something like that.
Speaker 1: Now they have the fourth in terms of opponents winning percentage,
Speaker 1: at least their fourth easiest schedule in the NFL.
Speaker 2: And they don't really have to travel much either. Their
Speaker 2: schedule is very very close to home. I mean, this
Speaker 2: is a team and this happens a lot of times too.
Speaker 2: When you've got a team that's expected to do big
Speaker 2: things and they fall flat on their faces, that following
Speaker 2: year is when they kind of tend to come through
Speaker 2: a little bit. I think the Browns are in that
Speaker 2: exact situation right now. And I get it, I'm from Cleveland.
Speaker 2: It sounds like a Homer pick, but you know, hey,
Speaker 2: I was honest about them last year, and I think
Speaker 2: this is a pretty honest assessment this year.
Speaker 1: Well, look, the bottom line is from last year, you've
Speaker 1: earned a ton of credibility, at least for me and
Speaker 1: hopefully with our listeners, because yeah, you per word, cold
Speaker 1: water in them. I was more bullish on them. I
Speaker 1: had a tough time justifying the under or not picking
Speaker 1: them to win the division last year because I really
Speaker 1: thought that they were going to come out gangbusters and
Speaker 1: it basically unfolded on almost exactly like you said. So
Speaker 1: certainly I'm not taking the home review and I'm not
Speaker 1: going to disagree with really anything that you're saying. I
Speaker 1: like a lot of what they've done here in the
Speaker 1: off season. I mean, Hooper was a little strange to me,
Speaker 1: you know, because you know, I know in Joko hasn't
Speaker 1: been great, but you know, Stefanski runs a lot of
Speaker 1: two tight ends sense to the to the extent that
Speaker 1: they keep in Joko. But I like adding you know,
Speaker 1: Jack Conklin and getting a solid backup like case Keenum,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna go. You saw that they're their offense
Speaker 1: last year, and again it's gonna be a different system. So
Speaker 1: it's not gonna look exactly like that, but you know,
Speaker 1: they're they're keeping Kareem Hunt. I assume they've got a
Speaker 1: second round ten around them. I don't think anybody's gonna
Speaker 1: want to pay that. And you know they've got Andy Jenovitch,
Speaker 1: So they want to run the ball, right that that's
Speaker 1: sort of part of what they're going to be doing.
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield's gonna work a lot better on play action passing.
Speaker 1: So I find it hard and it's probably the optics,
Speaker 1: even though it shouldn't because it's an entirely new coaching
Speaker 1: staff and they still have talent to do the I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go they're going to improve three wins, right, that's well,
Speaker 1: that's just a lot in the NFL.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: They were six and ten last year, so it's hard
Speaker 1: for me to go out there. But I really I
Speaker 1: can't really disagree with anything that you're saying in this one,
Speaker 1: especially again they've got a really really easy schedule and
Speaker 1: the travel. You're right, So for me, yeah, I'm not
Speaker 1: going to really argue with it. It's not bad the
Speaker 1: one that I like a little better in this one. Again,
Speaker 1: maybe I just like the worst team in the division
Speaker 1: and the lowest over under, but I kind of like
Speaker 1: the Bengals over and again this is one where you'd
Speaker 1: have to go way over because it's they were two
Speaker 1: and fourteen last year and the over unders five, so
Speaker 1: you're expecting them to improve six wins. But this kind
Speaker 1: of offseason has been different than the usual Bengals offseason, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, they've spent money, They've gone out there and
Speaker 1: they've they've really helped their defense with DJ Reader, Trey Wayns, McKenzie,
Speaker 1: Alexander and Von Bell. So they're going to be better
Speaker 1: against the run. And you know, Wayns and Alexander they
Speaker 1: weren't that great in twenty nineteen and they've lost you know,
Speaker 1: Darkez Dennard and Drake Kirkpatrick. But you know, I do
Speaker 1: think defensively they're going to be better and on offense, Look,
Speaker 1: they're gonna get aj Greenback and you have to assume
Speaker 1: that they're gonna get Joe Burrow. It's possible they trade
Speaker 1: that pick, but everything I've seen sounds like they're gonna
Speaker 1: go for it. They sell a Dalton on the roster
Speaker 1: if not, but they're gonna get with Joe Burrow. And look,
Speaker 1: can you find six wins? You look at their schedule.
Speaker 1: They've got the Redskins, they've got the Jaguars, They've got
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, who are gonna be improved. But you know
Speaker 1: that that's certainly a potential. They've got the Giants, you know,
Speaker 1: those are those are some games that they could easily win.
Speaker 1: Divisional games are always up in the air. Five wins
Speaker 1: is a pretty low total. I don't love it, and
Speaker 1: this division is my least favorite division in terms of
Speaker 1: finding a pick that I really like. But I kind
Speaker 1: of can see and again this is me probably assuming
Speaker 1: that they go with Joe Burrow, but I could kind
Speaker 1: of see, you know, in in their second year under Taylor,
Speaker 1: the Bengals taking a leap and getting to more than
Speaker 1: five wins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that one, that one's tough for me to get
Speaker 2: to simply because I want to see what the defense
Speaker 2: looks like. You know, we know the offense should be better.
Speaker 2: I mean, Burrow's gonna have Green, he's gonna have mix,
Speaker 2: and he's gonna have some guys that he can kind
Speaker 2: of work with a little. But what happens with this defense?
Speaker 2: I mean, can this defense get stops? And again, I
Speaker 2: always like to look I base a lot of this
Speaker 2: on the six games within the division. The Browns obviously
Speaker 2: look very good and look capable of scoring a lot
Speaker 2: of points. Pittsburgh will get Ben Roethlisberger back whatever state
Speaker 2: he's in at this point in his career, and then
Speaker 2: there's Baltimore, who is probably just the best team in
Speaker 2: the AFC. And you know, unless you consider the Chiefs
Speaker 2: to be the best team in the AFC, they're kind
Speaker 2: of one A and one B right there. Can the
Speaker 2: Bengals find wins outside of the division, because if they
Speaker 2: go zero to six in the division, which is very possible,
Speaker 2: then you're asking him to kind of get six wins
Speaker 2: out of their other ten games. That's a little bit
Speaker 2: difficult for me to kind of wrap my head around.
Speaker 2: But I will say this, I do think that you
Speaker 2: start building the foundation because Taylor, again by trade a
Speaker 2: quarterbacks kind of guy. You get him Burrow, you see
Speaker 2: him provement in the second half of the season. Maybe
Speaker 2: next year is the bye year for a team like that.
Speaker 2: I will say, though, maybe this kind of works in
Speaker 2: with your thoughts on the Bengals. I'm not real high
Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh this season, you know. I mean, I think
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh is a team that is obviously still a
Speaker 2: very very well run organization, but there were questions all
Speaker 2: year long last year about Mike Tomlin and his job
Speaker 2: security and all that Ben Roethlisberger goes down gives them
Speaker 2: an easy excuse to, you know, just sort of keep
Speaker 2: things status quo and you know, wait and see what
Speaker 2: happens next year. But I'm not a real big fan
Speaker 2: of this Pittsburgh team. I don't know what we're going
Speaker 2: to get from Ben. Obviously, it was going to be
Speaker 2: more difficult having Antonio Brown alongside Juju Smith Schuster, and
Speaker 2: we saw that with Smith Schuster, I mean it was
Speaker 2: it was tough for him to get open. It was
Speaker 2: tough for him to find a lot of room to work.
Speaker 2: Is Ben gonna be able to throw it in those windows?
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't think so. Pittsburgh is a
Speaker 2: team that I'm just pretty sour on overall for this
Speaker 2: upcoming season. I was sour on them a little bit
Speaker 2: to a degree last year, and I did I don't
Speaker 2: see them getting to nine and seven. I mean, obviously
Speaker 2: they went eight and eight and you would think, oh,
Speaker 2: upgrade Ben's back and this and that. I just think
Speaker 2: that the Browns passed them by, and maybe within a
Speaker 2: couple of years the Bengals do too.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't love the Steelers over nine at all.
Speaker 1: I don't really know what to make of them because
Speaker 1: they are basically the same team right, They've got a
Speaker 1: great offensive line, they've got a great defense. They once
Speaker 1: they brought in Minko Fitzpatrick, it was, you know, the
Speaker 1: defense really turned and they basically got to eight and
Speaker 1: eight with nothing at quarterback last year. So if Ben
Speaker 1: can do anything, you do kind of feel like they'll
Speaker 1: be better. But I think the fact that they did
Speaker 1: get to eight and eight last year makes me just say,
Speaker 1: you know, no matter what, they're going to be a
Speaker 1: tough opponent, you know. So you can't look at even
Speaker 1: if Ben is terrible, you can't look at at that
Speaker 1: as a game that the Bengals can be like, oh great, well,
Speaker 1: when I agree, you look at their schedule, it's not
Speaker 1: that forgiving. I mean, they do have an easy schedule,
Speaker 1: the whole NFC AFC North does, but there aren't that
Speaker 1: many games that you look at and can say, oh, wow,
Speaker 1: this is game the Bengals are definitely gonna win. But
Speaker 1: at the same time, I do just feel like this
Speaker 1: is going to be a team. I think their cultures
Speaker 1: and be better. I think if they get Burrow, I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be which I'm kind of banking
Speaker 1: on at this point that they're going to be well
Speaker 1: improved offensively. So this is a team that I kind
Speaker 1: of like, I'm not overly bullish on, but I think
Speaker 1: I can see them getting a six months. Let's move
Speaker 1: on here.
Speaker 2: Let me ask you real quickly. Go ahead, because by
Speaker 2: and large, and I talked about this a lot when
Speaker 2: I wrote the MLB Betting Guide, which is now and
Speaker 2: large juiceless with the season, you know, being so shortened
Speaker 2: if it gets played at all. But one of the
Speaker 2: things I always talk about in that betting guide is that,
Speaker 2: as a general rule, I don't like to play really
Speaker 2: high or really low win totals because there's just not
Speaker 2: a lot of margin for error. It's very hard to
Speaker 2: bet on the degree to which a team will be
Speaker 2: really good or the degree to which a team will
Speaker 2: be really bad. Is there any way you can take
Speaker 2: Baltimore under eleven or under eleven and a half, because
Speaker 2: I don't think I could. It would have to be
Speaker 2: over or nothing. Right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again they you want to talk about they
Speaker 1: have the easiest schedule in opponents winning percentage of four
Speaker 1: thirty eight, so it's really really difficult. I remember one
Speaker 1: of their quote unquote harder matchups is the Patriots, which
Speaker 1: is not going to be nearly as hard a matchup
Speaker 1: as it was last year for the reasons that we discussed.
Speaker 1: But in the end, yeah, no, I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I'm certainly not going under. I just I couldn't you
Speaker 1: look at what they've done this offseason. They're probably only
Speaker 1: better right now on paper. Right they traded for Kalais
Speaker 1: Campbell and adding Derek Wolf and everything like that. It's
Speaker 1: really going to be tough. They've got to add an
Speaker 1: inside linebacker, they've got to bulk up the interior of
Speaker 1: their offensive line. But really they're basically just as good
Speaker 1: as last year. Is there a chance that the league
Speaker 1: can adjust to Lamar Jackson? I mean, is there a
Speaker 1: chance that was there a quote unquote blueprint that the
Speaker 1: Titans were able to put out there in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: I don't really think so. But you know, it's hard
Speaker 1: with this type of offense that they run that you
Speaker 1: just feel like eventually a team's going to kind of
Speaker 1: figure out how to play them. But for me, no,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I don't like it because eleven's
Speaker 1: way too big a number for me to really sit there,
Speaker 1: and there is a high or over under that I
Speaker 1: like the under which we'll talk about in a few minutes.
Speaker 1: But for me, yeah, I agree. If I worried about
Speaker 1: on the Ravens right now, I would go over the
Speaker 1: eleven because it's just really difficult, especially with they've had
Speaker 1: a very good offseason, to see them really falling off
Speaker 1: too much. Let's go to the AFC South here, and
Speaker 1: this one's kind of all bunched up together. You've got
Speaker 1: the Titans at eight and a half, the Colts at
Speaker 1: eight and a half, the Texans at eight, and the
Speaker 1: Jaguars at five. So what do you think here?
Speaker 2: This one's tough. I mean, this one is really really tough, especially.
Speaker 1: One there's one I like only other than that, I
Speaker 1: really don't want any part of this.
Speaker 2: Division, especially because you know we've seen the adjustment to
Speaker 2: Houston and deservedly so. I mean, this is a team
Speaker 2: that you know want its division last year at ten
Speaker 2: and six with a negative point differential, and they trade it.
Speaker 2: As much as I love Deshaun Watson, they trade away
Speaker 2: their best offensive player in DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller
Speaker 2: is never healthy. Brandon Cooks has always got the concussion
Speaker 2: background that you know you need to worry about. Maybe
Speaker 2: David Johnson sort of has a career resurgence. I don't know,
Speaker 2: but it's unfortunate that Houston has already been adjusted down
Speaker 2: enough some places, even showing seven and a half out
Speaker 2: there now that you can't really take that one. I mean,
Speaker 2: were the Titans. Are the Titans going to be as
Speaker 2: good as they were in the second half of last year?
Speaker 2: Probably not. Do I still think that they're the team
Speaker 2: most likely to win this division? Yeah, I think so,
Speaker 2: so over eight and a half with Tennessee probably my
Speaker 2: favorite play. But it also doesn't shock me if any
Speaker 2: of these three teams, you know, whatever order they finish one, two, three,
Speaker 2: not gonna surprise me at all. The only thing I
Speaker 2: think is for certain is that Jacksonville probably does finish
Speaker 2: in the basement here once again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Jacksonville is coming as close to outright
Speaker 1: tanking as you possibly can be without seriously just saying, yes,
Speaker 1: we are trying to lose. But for me, the one
Speaker 1: I like actually is and there's no way I'm going
Speaker 1: anywhere near the Texans because I don't know what the
Speaker 1: psyche of that team has to be. Right now, where
Speaker 1: you have trades that you know, everybody who looks at
Speaker 1: is like, what is happening right now? How could you
Speaker 1: possibly do that? And Bill O'Brien just like, yeah, this
Speaker 1: works for me, and I have total control, so I'm
Speaker 1: gonna do what I want for me. I kind of
Speaker 1: like the Colts at over eight and a half. So
Speaker 1: here's why I personally probably a little more I don't
Speaker 1: want to even use the word bullish, but a little
Speaker 1: more positive on Rivers and what he has left in
Speaker 1: the tank. I honestly think that last year was much
Speaker 1: more about him just getting the crap kicked out of
Speaker 1: him all the time. He was sacked thirty four times.
Speaker 1: He was pressured thirty six percent of the time. Nobody
Speaker 1: likes pressure, no quarterback, especially someone who is basically a
Speaker 1: mobile like Rivers. He had a terrible offensive line. Now
Speaker 1: he's with the Colts, which is kind of the perfect
Speaker 1: spot because I have a great offensive line and they
Speaker 1: kept you know, Anthony Castanzo. That was a huge move.
Speaker 1: He's familiar with the sick with the system because of
Speaker 1: Nick Soriani, and he's got enough pieces on offense. As
Speaker 1: long as Paris Campbell can stay healthy, Marlon Mack is
Speaker 1: still a quality back. I don't I don't love Marlon Mack,
Speaker 1: but he's a quote unquote quality back. He's good enough.
Speaker 1: They've got Nahima Hines for all the dump offs that
Speaker 1: Rivers likes to do. They are solid defensively. They let
Speaker 1: pier de siergo, but they added to Forrest Buckner. Not
Speaker 1: sure that he was worth a thirteenth pick, but certainly
Speaker 1: that's an addition for them. So, look, they can go
Speaker 1: four and two in the division. I assume, you know,
Speaker 1: they can be Jacksonville twice. They'll probably split, let's say,
Speaker 1: with Tennessee and Houston. They get the Jets, the Raiders,
Speaker 1: the Bengals, the Lions, the Bears. It's not the easiest
Speaker 1: schedule overall, but they have a ton of winnable games.
Speaker 1: I just I really like that team. I think the
Speaker 1: fact that they they you know, they wound up finishing
Speaker 1: seven to nine last year, but for a while they
Speaker 1: look like they were gonna possibly win that division with
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett, who is just not equality NFL quarterback in
Speaker 1: my personal opinion, And the fact that they had to
Speaker 1: do that while losing luck in the preseason. You know,
Speaker 1: I know they were kind of preparing for it, but
Speaker 1: they weren't exactly saying yes, we're gonna go in here
Speaker 1: with Brissett. That was still kind of a big blow.
Speaker 1: And they're just so well coached, they've been put together.
Speaker 1: The bones of the team are really strong. So I
Speaker 1: think if Rivers has anything left, and personally I do.
Speaker 1: I know how bad he looked, but again he was
Speaker 1: just he was just getting blown up every single play there.
Speaker 1: The Chargers offensive line was terrible last year, so I
Speaker 1: think it's got a little more in the tank. You
Speaker 1: give him an offensive line, you give him a decent
Speaker 1: team around him, and him a well coached team. I
Speaker 1: think that's a team that can get to nine wins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. And again we see that
Speaker 2: with the Jews that's out there in the market ranging
Speaker 2: anywhere from you know, minus one twenty five on up
Speaker 2: and look Rivers to me again, feels like one of
Speaker 2: those guys that and he's probably earned this right being
Speaker 2: you know what is the almost forty now or over forty.
Speaker 2: He's earned this right of being comfortable, and like you said,
Speaker 2: last year, he was uncomfortable. He had the offensive line issues.
Speaker 2: You know, he was very good for Ken wizen Hunt
Speaker 2: too for a while, and then wizen Hunt I don't
Speaker 2: know if the shine came off of him or if
Speaker 2: they just wanted to make a change or what. That's
Speaker 2: something that probably did impact Rivers negatively as well. You
Speaker 2: mentioned Sirianni and kind of the rapport that he has
Speaker 2: with him. Sirianni was the quarterbacks coach for the then
Speaker 2: San Diego Chargers, also a wide receivers coach. Rivers is
Speaker 2: comfortable with Syrian. He would have to be, otherwise he
Speaker 2: wouldn't have, you know, said okay, I'll go to the Colts.
Speaker 2: So that helps. I think Frank Reich is an awesome
Speaker 2: head coach. I think that he's had a lot of
Speaker 2: hardship to deal with, in particular on the injury side
Speaker 2: as it pertains to the Colts, you know, with the
Speaker 2: couple years that he's been there. So I think he's
Speaker 2: a very very good fit. You know, to have a
Speaker 2: guy like Philip Rivers. They get a lot of third
Speaker 2: and short situations. That's somewhere where Rivers can excel. If
Speaker 2: it's third and three, third and four, Rivers is fine.
Speaker 2: If it's third and eight, third and nine and the
Speaker 2: pass rushers are coming, it's a lot tougher for Philip Rivers.
Speaker 2: So I think schematically it fits. Personnel wise it fits.
Speaker 2: I completely agree with you on both of those counts.
Speaker 2: I need to see the defense. I don't even want
Speaker 2: to say improve, but just stay healthy, man. I mean,
Speaker 2: you know, that's one of the things I failed to
Speaker 2: mention about the Browns is that they had three or
Speaker 2: four weeks in a row last year where there are
Speaker 2: four starters in the secondary were all out. And when
Speaker 2: Indianapolis is healthy and at something resembling full strength, they
Speaker 2: are a very, very good football team. It's a two
Speaker 2: horse race between the Colts and the Titans for this
Speaker 2: division crown as far as I'm concerned, and I think
Speaker 2: you could make very strong, very compelling arguments for the
Speaker 2: over with both of them. And I think that we've
Speaker 2: kind of done that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that when we say it's two
Speaker 1: horse race, which I agree with, then you and I
Speaker 1: can have another podcast at the end of the season
Speaker 1: after the Texans miraculously go twelve and four, just bye
Speaker 1: a negative point differential, which they seem to be able
Speaker 1: to do. The one thing you pointed out, by the way,
Speaker 1: which is true. I should have pointed that out. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is you know, it's pretty juice, right, I mean
Speaker 1: to take the over, it's minus one twenty five and
Speaker 1: it's plus one oh three to take the under, So
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that the over is the right
Speaker 1: side at this point. I think that you know, it
Speaker 1: wasn't like that. Frankly a week ago it was much closer.
Speaker 1: So I think it's moving that way, and I think
Speaker 1: that there's a reason.
Speaker 2: Well that's an important distinction for listeners too, is that
Speaker 2: you know, as a general rule, you know it's about
Speaker 2: I want to say it's about forty to fifty cents,
Speaker 2: was about a half win in the NFL marketplace. I
Speaker 2: apologize if I'm off by that, but I feel like
Speaker 2: I remember hearing that. So this is almost essentially like
Speaker 2: what over nine at. You know, maybe a little bit
Speaker 2: of a plus money price something like that. Would you
Speaker 2: be willing to take that. If the answer is yes,
Speaker 2: then don't necessarily be afraid of that little bit of
Speaker 2: extra juice on the over eight and a half because
Speaker 2: you're kind of getting like a really cheap nine price.
Speaker 2: And if you're comfortable with doing that, you know, obviously
Speaker 2: it takes away the push on nine, then you know,
Speaker 2: by all means, go ahead and do it. If you
Speaker 2: feel strongly enough about it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great point. And again, you know, for
Speaker 1: the most part, with all of these, they're they're almost
Speaker 1: not all, but the vast majority of them are. The
Speaker 1: juice is minus one ten on the over or the under.
Speaker 1: Like the entire AFC West, which we're about to talk about,
Speaker 1: over and under is all one ten minus one ten
Speaker 1: all around. So this is one, you know where it's
Speaker 1: a little and some books. Look, I'm looking at one.
Speaker 1: I think it might be it's a FanDuel. So on
Speaker 1: FanDuel you look at it. Over eight and a half
Speaker 1: is minus one, say, and under is plus one thirty five.
Speaker 1: So again that's another reason to shop around. But yeah,
Speaker 1: for this one in particular, there's really a big disparity
Speaker 1: between the over and the underwitch there aren't usually, and
Speaker 1: there aren't necessarily with the West, where everyone is at
Speaker 1: either over or under at minus one ten, and that's
Speaker 1: the chiefs at over under an eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: Everyone else in the division seven and a half, Broncos
Speaker 1: Chargers Raiders all over under seven and a half. Everybody
Speaker 1: the juices minus one ten on either side. So how
Speaker 1: do you feel, do you like any of these.
Speaker 2: Well, you know again, I mean, we're talking about teams that,
Speaker 2: at least according to the win total odds are kind
Speaker 2: of interchangeable there with Denver, the Chargers, and the Raiders.
Speaker 2: And there's one that I disagree with, and that's the Chargers.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that this is a team that
Speaker 2: you know, we just talked about it with Philip Rivers
Speaker 2: and how he has the mobility of an Easter Island statue.
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor does not. Tyrod Taylor can move around a
Speaker 2: little bit. And while I really wanted Jameis Winston to
Speaker 2: land in LA with the Chargers, and who knows, maybe
Speaker 2: he's still could, Taylor's probably an upgrade just from the
Speaker 2: simple fact that he can move around the fact that
Speaker 2: they can. Now I don't know if they're going to
Speaker 2: try to adopt something of a Lamar Jackson style offense
Speaker 2: with you know, the backs that they have in a
Speaker 2: mobile quarterback like Taylor, but they're not handicapped by the
Speaker 2: fact that Philip Rivers can't move They're not handicap by
Speaker 2: the fact that Philip Rivers won't QB sneak on third
Speaker 2: and one or fourth and one anymore. They've got a
Speaker 2: guy in Tyrod Taylor, who's going to be willing to
Speaker 2: move around, and I think that's going to help everything
Speaker 2: about this offense. And look, this defense can be downright
Speaker 2: nasty as long as everybody's healthy. They obviously have the
Speaker 2: pass rush. You know, you got Linval Joseph in the
Speaker 2: middle defensively to kind of help them out with the
Speaker 2: run a little bit. Again, another team that needs to
Speaker 2: stay healthy in the back seven. But if we're talking
Speaker 2: about ceiling, which by and large is what I try
Speaker 2: to look at with any win total market in any sport,
Speaker 2: I want to look at ceiling and I want to
Speaker 2: look at floor, and I think the floor for the
Speaker 2: Chargers probably is that six and ten, seven and nine range.
Speaker 2: I think their ceiling could be as high as ten
Speaker 2: and six if everything falls into place for them. So
Speaker 2: because they've got a bigger gap between floor and ceiling
Speaker 2: than say the Broncos or the Raiders, the Chargers would
Speaker 2: have to be the one. I'd look at it over
Speaker 2: seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Yep, that is the one that I like here as well.
Speaker 1: And you know you brought up the good point first
Speaker 1: of all out of curiosity. Do you think they're going
Speaker 1: in with Tyrod Taylor or do you think they're going
Speaker 1: to be doing something else?
Speaker 2: Oh? Man, I mean, if if they were going to
Speaker 2: do Tyrod Taylor, wouldn't they have already gotten somebody else?
Speaker 1: Do you assume?
Speaker 2: But I mean, or do they do they draft someone?
Speaker 1: You know, I think they probably do draft someone, but
Speaker 1: I think it's much more of a long term pick.
Speaker 1: What are they six? I think they're the six pick
Speaker 1: in the draft. I think it's more of a long
Speaker 1: term option. So if they're if they take.
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert, does he start you know, like maybe week three,
Speaker 2: week four, something like that, or do they give Taylor
Speaker 2: all year?
Speaker 1: I mean, it could be sort of like they did
Speaker 1: with Taylor with the Browns right where he started out
Speaker 1: the season then they turned it over to Mayfield. So
Speaker 1: they certainly could do something like that. But I agree
Speaker 1: with you. By the way, this is the one pick
Speaker 1: that I like. And you know, remember we talked about
Speaker 1: the offensive line, and it's great to have Taylor who's
Speaker 1: able to get away from pressure. But they also upgraded
Speaker 1: the offensive line right with Turner and Brian Blaga. So
Speaker 1: you know, I agree with you basically all the points
Speaker 1: that you made, and you know, you look at their schedule,
Speaker 1: They've got a ton of winnable games obviously, you know,
Speaker 1: the Raiders and the Broncos. I think you're looking like
Speaker 1: I do, is that you know, you can easily see them,
Speaker 1: you know, being the better team of all the seven
Speaker 1: and a half win teams.
Speaker 2: You've got the.
Speaker 1: Dolphins, the Jaguars, the Panthers, the Jets, depending on what
Speaker 1: the Patriots do, the Falcons, the Bengals. There are a
Speaker 1: lot of really winnable games that you look at on
Speaker 1: their schedule coming in. So that is a team that
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm looking at an over under
Speaker 1: of one of them. That's really the one that I
Speaker 1: like the most. Again, you mentioned their defense, so it
Speaker 1: really is the key. There's one other that I like,
Speaker 1: And I wonder what you think about this. How do
Speaker 1: you feel about the Chiefs over under of eleven and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Well, it's a big number. You know, you got over
Speaker 2: the hump last year you won the Super Bowl, so
Speaker 2: you know, obviously there's there's kind of some difficulty with
Speaker 2: that twelve and four last year with the Mahomes injury.
Speaker 2: You give them a lot of credit, you give them
Speaker 2: full marks for that. I just the relative strength of
Speaker 2: the division. I think everybody around them is a little
Speaker 2: bit better this year. You've kind of got that sign
Speaker 2: on your back. Now we know what Mahomes just did
Speaker 2: last year, and I have a really hard time just
Speaker 2: looking at that team and going, yeah, they're gonna go
Speaker 2: twelve and four or better. Again, It's it's a big ask. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, if I were to pick another bet in
Speaker 1: this division, it would be the under on the Chiefs
Speaker 1: over under eleven and a half. And it's hard to
Speaker 1: do that, and I don't know whether or not I
Speaker 1: would really have the inteslino fortitude to make that pick,
Speaker 1: just because betting against Patrick Mahomes even in a single
Speaker 1: game is just devastating, and I'd hate to do it
Speaker 1: over a full season. But look, I mean they've got
Speaker 1: to go You mentioned it, right. Their division is tougher.
Speaker 1: I don't love the Broncos, I don't love the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I don't even love the Chargers, but you can easily
Speaker 1: see them going four and two. Let's say the Chiefs
Speaker 1: against the division, and then they've got to go two balls.
Speaker 1: They've got to go to Buffalo, and regardless of what
Speaker 1: you think of Buffalo, that is a very, very difficult
Speaker 1: place to play. They've got to go to New Orleans,
Speaker 1: they've got to go to Tampa Bay with Brady and
Speaker 1: that team. They have a lot of difficult games on
Speaker 1: their schedule, and I know that Patrick Mahomes is capable
Speaker 1: of overcoming a lot of things that The defense played
Speaker 1: a lot better down the stretch, and they're pretty much
Speaker 1: intact offensively, you know, they've still got you know, they're
Speaker 1: going to go with Damian Williams again, they added DeAndre Washington. Offensively,
Speaker 1: they're pretty much intact. But you know, give it. That
Speaker 1: is a huge number going on right now. The other
Speaker 1: thing that we didn't talk about necessarily is, you know,
Speaker 1: if the Ravens are as good as as sort of
Speaker 1: we expect this, There's only going to be one by
Speaker 1: this year, right So if the Ravens are, you know,
Speaker 1: going ahead and easily going to have that buy, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs may not have any need to push it down
Speaker 1: the stretch, you know what I mean. Like it could
Speaker 1: be something where you could see them saying if they
Speaker 1: don't have that buy necessarily, they could take their foot
Speaker 1: off the gas. That could work the other way too.
Speaker 1: They could be going for the bye and trying to
Speaker 1: get there and so going full team all the way.
Speaker 1: But it is some situation where if the Ravens are
Speaker 1: ahead of them, the Ravens beat them head to head,
Speaker 1: and the Ravens have the tiebreaker and they're getting there.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs could you could see at the end of
Speaker 1: the season sort of take their foot off the gas
Speaker 1: and just rest a little bit to try to get
Speaker 1: healthy as they go into the postseason.
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, oh no, I absolutely agree. That's definitely
Speaker 2: a consideration you always want to think about, you know,
Speaker 2: the situations for teams. And obviously it's easier in a
Speaker 2: sport like baseball where you got the trade deadline and
Speaker 2: you know you kind of have an idea of where
Speaker 2: they may be. But you're right, Kansas City may not
Speaker 2: be pushing it as much late in the year because again,
Speaker 2: I mean, they played three extra games last year, so
Speaker 2: less turnaround time, less recovery time is assuming the season
Speaker 2: starts on time of course, right. You know, so this
Speaker 2: is also a defense that bent a ton early on
Speaker 2: in the year. As you mentioned, they got a lot
Speaker 2: better down the stretch, but they also got to pad
Speaker 2: some numbers against an Oakland offense that wasn't great. They
Speaker 2: were okay. They weren't great. They weren't prolific by any means.
Speaker 2: The Patriots were way down Denver and the Bears. You know,
Speaker 2: the Chargers moved it on them. The Texans moved it
Speaker 2: on them in the play because they were kind of
Speaker 2: playing that pre event defense type of thing. But I mean, again,
Speaker 2: this is a team that, you know, when they had
Speaker 2: to step up in class and face decent offensive offenses
Speaker 2: last year, the defense did struggle. They were a true
Speaker 2: case of being very very good at playing the bully,
Speaker 2: and I don't think they have as many bully opportunities
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm inclined to agree. Again, it's not something
Speaker 1: that I'm loving. There is one pick that I like
Speaker 1: in this division, and that is the Chargers. As we
Speaker 1: discuss remember by the way, I realized, I forgot to
Speaker 1: mention it. I forgot exactly what it came out to.
Speaker 1: But at some point somebody tweeted out what the Chargers
Speaker 1: record would have been if you just reversed every single
Speaker 1: score game. I don't know remember exactly what was. It
Speaker 1: was probably eleven and five or something like that of
Speaker 1: something ridiculous. And again, that's just something that speaks to
Speaker 1: the strength of the team. The team, it's a very
Speaker 1: good team. Rivers played terribly and they had a terrible
Speaker 1: offensive line. Taylor's probably gonna make them better, and the
Speaker 1: better offensive line is really gonna move into that. So
Speaker 1: I think to improve three wins is not something that's
Speaker 1: going to be crazy for them to do.
Speaker 2: And real quickly. That's a really good point for all
Speaker 2: the listeners out there. Look for record in close games,
Speaker 2: because if you've got some outliers in that department, that's
Speaker 2: generally something that year over year kind of regresses to
Speaker 2: the mean a little bit. A good way to start
Speaker 2: kind of narrowing your focus for some of these teams,
Speaker 2: the ones that were say four and one or five
Speaker 2: and zero or something like that in close games, like
Speaker 2: a Seattle Seahawks type team for example, maybe that's something
Speaker 2: that you know, you want to scale back a little bit,
Speaker 2: kind of gravitate towards the under or the over, as
Speaker 2: the case may be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in terms of the Chiefs, yeah, I just it
Speaker 1: is something where I certainly wouldn't go with the over.
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not going them to get twelve wins.
Speaker 1: And we talked about the extremes. But for me if
Speaker 1: I had to go anywhere, it would be something with
Speaker 1: the end. All right, that's gonna do it for today's show, Adam.
Speaker 1: It was really really great to be able to catch
Speaker 1: up and having you on again. Remind everybody where they
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 3: Please.
Speaker 2: Yeah, great to chat with you as well, but yeah,
Speaker 2: you can find me over at bangbook dot com, at
Speaker 2: Skating Tripods on Twitter. Still doing the Better's Box, my
Speaker 2: MLB betting podcast twice a week, ramping up our draft
Speaker 2: stuff over there with I mean, my god, the prop
Speaker 2: catalog for the draft this year is just insane. There's
Speaker 2: so much going on, as I know you guys are
Speaker 2: doing a lot over at Betting Pros for that as well.
Speaker 2: But just trying to stay busy, man, trying not to
Speaker 2: you know, fall too far down the hole here with
Speaker 2: everything that's going on. But I really appreciate you having
Speaker 2: me on again, Dan, And you know, it's always great
Speaker 2: to chat no matter what sport it is with you.
Speaker 1: No, absolutely, And it's a shame we couldn't be talking
Speaker 1: about baseball at this time and leading into it, but
Speaker 1: you know, at least we do have the NFL and
Speaker 1: the Draft coming up. So thanks again for coming on.
Speaker 2: Absolutely man, thanks for having me all right.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to add over to bettingpros dot com to
Speaker 1: check out all the consensus lines, including our Draft day
Speaker 1: props and NFL futures. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll be
Speaker 1: back later this week to discuss the over unders for
Speaker 1: the NFC win totals. I'll talk to you.
Speaker 3: Then, money the mo I thin that the fact that
Speaker 3: have not been as com