WEBVTT - AFC Over/Under Wins: Best Bets (Ep. 49) 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:10.520 Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast. 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:12.600 I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.480 Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Lots happened since our last 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:17.639 episode where we broke down some NFL futures and the 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:21.280 Oscar odds, and the NFL offseason just keeps rolling right along. 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:23.640 So today we're going to break down some win totals 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.319 for the AFC. With me to do that is Adam Burke, 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:29.280 a sports betting writer over at bangbook dot com host 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:31.560 of Bang the Book Radio. You can follow him on 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:34.640 Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, thanks so much for joining 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:34.960 me today. 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.600 How you doing, I'm good man, How you doing? Not bad? 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:40.800 I mean, it's a little weird right now, obviously for 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:42.920 many reasons, and there are a lot of more serious 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:44.800 things going on in the country than just sports, but 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:47.839 the complete lack of sports. I mean, I watched with 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.320 my kid game seven of the twenty sixteen NBA Finals, 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:53.319 where you know, Lebron and the Cavs won, and it 0:00:53.440 --> 0:00:56.760 was it just like, it reminded me of how bizarre 0:00:56.840 --> 0:01:00.279 it is right now to not have anything at all 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:02.120 just to turn on and watch, you know what, I mean. 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:05.080 Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean it's you know, that's a 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:07.840 pretty big day for us around here. That's something you'd 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.920 almost remember quite well. I mean those are those are 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.840 the good times, the simpler days, I guess. But the 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.600 one nice thing I guess about, you know, talking NFL, 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.679 is that this is kind of the point that the 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:21.640 offseason would be in any way. You know, we had 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.360 a draft coming up in ten days or so, and 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:26.480 you know, we were just looking at win totals and 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:29.479 futures and all that. It's it's not like we're sitting 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:31.400 here talking about how we don't have baseball, which I 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:32.720 know is very hard for both of us. 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.280 Yeah, no, it is. And by the way, Adam is 0:01:35.319 --> 0:01:37.399 from Cleveland, in case you didn't know that, or at 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:39.440 least he is a Cleveland fan. Are you born and 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:40.600 raised in Cleveland or what? 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:43.160 Born and raised? I actually grew up about ten minutes 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:44.200 southwest of downtown. 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:46.959 Well, I remember you had last year when we talked 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:49.360 in an early episode. You had a correct take about 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:52.200 the Browns, you know, in their their future to win 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:55.440 the division, and you were not quite as bullish as 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.280 the general consensus. So you had that one peg. So 0:01:58.400 --> 0:01:59.840 I'll be interested to hear what you think about their 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:03.080 own under today. So for today, as we said, we're 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.200 gonna go division by division. In the AFC, we're going 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:07.240 to talk about the over unders for every team in 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:08.919 the division. Now, for the odds, we're going to be 0:02:09.000 --> 0:02:12.160 using the consensus over unders from bettingpros dot com. That's 0:02:12.200 --> 0:02:14.840 the aggregate of the odds that are available in the market, 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:17.360 and you can find those over at bettingpros dot com 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:20.639 slash NFL hyphen wins. And you can find more than 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:23.160 just the win totals or team futures. If you're interested 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.640 in the draft, go to bettingpros dot com slash draft 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.400 hyphen props. Those are consensus lines on things like how 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:31.320 many of any position are going to be drafted, or 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.400 the first pick by team and things like that. You 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:35.560 can find lines on pretty much every potential thing to 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.360 bet in the NFL, So go check it out, all right, Adam, 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.520 Let's start with the AFC East here, a division which 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.120 should be a little more interesting than in past years. 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.880 Right now, the consensus lines are the Bills are over 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:49.320 under of nine, the Patriots also over under of nine, 0:02:49.800 --> 0:02:52.160 Jets are an over under of six and a half, 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.160 and the Dolphins are an over under of six. So 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.040 any of these over under, any of these bets, do 0:02:58.080 --> 0:02:58.880 you find enticing. 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:01.600 I think it's you know, really tough to kind of 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.040 figure out right now because we're still sort of in 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:06.200 a holding pattern with New England. I think that New 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:09.040 England it's very hard to see them going into the 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:12.080 season with you know, Jared Stidham and Brian Hoyer at quarterback, 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:14.560 and yeah, maybe they take one in the first round, 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:17.240 but I can't imagine that Bill Belichick's gonna run a 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:20.720 rookie quarterback out there right away, So maybe Hoyer is 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.799 kind of a placeholder something like that. But I mean, 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:25.880 this defense is still exceptional, you know, it's still one 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:28.679 of the best defenses in the AFC, if not the 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.359 best defense in the AFC. So it's tough to kind 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:34.960 of ascertain what to do with the win totals here 0:03:34.960 --> 0:03:37.920 in the AFC East until we get more clarity on 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:41.880 New England's quarterback situation, because if they upgrade at quarterback, 0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:44.960 this could very well be a team that goes eleven 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.960 and five, you know, or has a very very strong 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:50.440 ten and six record, which at that point in time, 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:53.720 would you know, positive or would potentially, I should say 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.880 impact the Bills impact those two head to head meetings 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.680 with the Jets. Same thing about their games with the Dolphins. 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.520 So I couldn't really do too much with the AFC 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:05.520 East right now until I figure out where New England's 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:07.960 kind of going to fall, because you know, those head 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:10.440 to head games with two per team are very important. 0:04:10.600 --> 0:04:12.520 So let me ask you something, what does upgrade the 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:15.720 quarterback position mean to you? Does that mean literally sign 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:18.440 anybody else or trade for anybody else or anything like 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.400 that that's going on. I mean, you we obviously have 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.120 you know, you've got Jameis Winston and Cam Newton out there. 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.000 The Bengals are of course looking to deal Andy Dalton 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.360 if they get one of those guys, is that completely 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:30.599 change your outlook on this division? I mean, how would 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:32.760 you feel about an over under of nine if they 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:33.719 made one of those moves? 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:35.640 Yeah, I mean I would have to go over at 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:37.719 that point. And you know, I've even kind of seen 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.000 some of the places out there in the offshore market 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:42.000 kind of have a head to head matchup between New 0:04:42.000 --> 0:04:44.880 England and Buffalo, and you know who would have more 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:48.680 wins in a battle between those two teams and I mean, look, 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:51.400 if New England makes an upgrade at quarterback, I think 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:54.440 their win total nine and a half looks good. You know, 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:55.880 I don't think that they would go all the way 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:58.120 up to ten necessarily. And as I look at the 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:00.960 betting pros consensus ods, you know, some individual books out 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.839 there do have nine and a half. I mean, is 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.840 Dalton a half win upgrade over you know, Hoyer or 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:09.360 Stidham or let's say they take you know, Jordan Love 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:13.559 or something like that. I think, so is Winston and upgrade. Yeah, 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.440 he doesn't have the same skill position talent that he 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:17.480 had in Tampa Bay, but I mean he's still a 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:19.839 better option, I would say, than Hoyer and Stidham. And 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.000 you know, Cam Newton could be an option here too. 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.279 I think New England, if I had to bet it 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.480 right now, I'm still taking New England to win this division. 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:30.760 I wouldn't be in love with it. But given the 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:33.239 fact that both the Patriots and the Bills are sitting 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.719 there at nine, I mean I would have to look 0:05:35.720 --> 0:05:38.160 probably more over nine with New England than I would 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:38.760 with Buffalo. 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:43.920 I think it's fair. I think that I think let's 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:45.920 start with your first point, which is It is nearly 0:05:45.920 --> 0:05:50.280 impossible to accurately kind of assess this division without knowing 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:52.240 what the Patriots are going to be doing. Right now, 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:54.800 let me start with this. I guess if they don't 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.479 make an upgrade on quarterback, let's say they go with Stidham. Okay, 0:05:57.560 --> 0:05:59.200 let's say they say, this is what we're doing, this 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.440 is our future. We like what we've seen, despite the 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.240 fact that he's thrown what four passes in the NFL. 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:06.800 They go, it's Stidham. What do you think about the 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:08.600 over under nine? And you pointed it out, by the way, 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.200 when you look at the consensus odds, it's nine nine 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.240 and a half, nine nine and a half, nine nine 0:06:13.279 --> 0:06:15.200 and a half, So it's one of two ways at 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.080 nine and a half. Personally, if they don't make an upgrade, 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:20.479 I'm easy on the under here. I get that the 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:23.920 Patriots are incredible. They haven't won fewer than ten games 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:27.600 since two thousand and two. The defense is good, they're 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:29.960 very good. But they have lost a boatload so far 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:32.240 in free agency. Right they lost Kyle Van Nooy, they 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:34.680 lost Jamie Collins, they lost Shelton, they lost Harmon, they 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:37.760 lost a Landon Roberts. You know, I get that they 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:40.160 still have you know, Stefan Gilmore, and they still have 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.120 mccordy and everything like that. But you know, the thing is, defensively, 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.280 they're very good, but they're not this elite unit that 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.360 everybody kind of thought that they were because they were 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:53.200 beaten the heck out of that horrible offensive competition that 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.520 they faced earlier in the year. They're a very solid 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:57.919 defensive unit, but I don't think they're good enough for 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.600 the offense to carry them. And they just have done 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.440 nothing right now. On offense. I mean they tagged you know, 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:08.479 Joe Toney, they still have Mohammed Sanu, they still have 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:11.760 Marcus Kennon, but they really I mean, unless you're saying 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.920 Nikhil Harry or Jacoby Myers are gonna take a huge 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:17.920 leap or they're gonna do something with you know, their 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.320 twelve picks to really make a move or a trade 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:22.800 or something like that, this team is not very good. 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.720 I mean, their defense is is decent, but their offense 0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:27.760 and you know, all I hear about all the time. 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:29.800 And again I live in New England, so this is 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:32.040 certainly what I get from my in laws and everything 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:34.400 like that, and just from the crowd around here in 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:36.360 the sports talk radio is you know, you think back 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.880 to the Matt Castle gear, but you know, this is 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:42.120 not Randy Moss and Wes Welker sitting there on offense. 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:44.680 You know, it's not as if he can just Belichick 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:46.840 and just do this without Brady. This is not a 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:50.840 very good offensive team. So for me, absent a major 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:54.240 you know, absent upgraded quarterback for sure, but maybe even 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:56.080 more than that. If it's nine and a half, I'm 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:59.520 still going under. I'd probably stay away at nine, I guess, 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.240 But for the nine and a half, I really think 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:01.880 I lean under. 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.440 Well, I mean those are all fair points. And you know, again, 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:06.080 I mean there are a lot of moving parts with 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:08.080 this team, and we know that, you know, they're very, 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.600 very sharp and very smart organizationally, and there also has 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.400 been a brain drain in terms of the coaching staff too. 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.120 You know, you lose a guy like a Jerry Schaplinsky, 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:19.880 you know, somebody like that, a guy that, yeah he's 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:21.960 not an offensive coordinator, Yeah he's not going to get 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:24.400 the same headlines, but a guy that's you know, been 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:27.720 in that quarterback room, been in that offensive room, obviously 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:29.840 a very smart guy. Three Super Bowl rings. Now I 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.160 don't even think he's forty yet, or he's pretty close 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:35.120 to it. That's another byproduct of being really good is 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:38.080 that you start losing some very smart people within the 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.719 organization as well. Now that being said, you'll get their 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.280 eight home games here, they get San Francisco and they 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:47.800 get Baltimore at home, two very very difficult games. Otherwise, 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:51.160 you've got the three Division teams Denver, Las Vegas, and 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:55.240 Arizona all six of those very very winnable games. And 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:57.880 on the road. I'm low on the Rams for this season, 0:08:57.880 --> 0:08:59.319 which I'm sure we'll talk about in a little bit. 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.640 I'm very on Seattle for this season. Those are two 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:06.000 road games that there'll be an underdog in in all likelihood, 0:09:06.000 --> 0:09:07.840 but I think they're kind of there for the taking. 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:11.520 The three Division games. Houston, I mean, who knows if 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:13.959 Deshaun Watson doesn't just walk out on that team at 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:16.240 some point here with everything that's going on with them, 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:18.600 Kansas City and the Chargers a couple of tough road 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.960 games against the AFC West. I don't think their schedule 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:23.880 is that bad, and I think if they've got a 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:28.559 quarterback that doesn't actively hurt them the schedule sets up 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:32.440 relatively well for them to be, you know, a ten 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.480 and six type team if everything falls into place. But again, 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:37.800 you're talking about a much thinner margin for error than 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:39.920 we've seen in the past. I think it's more of 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:42.839 a commentary to me on I don't think Buffalo is 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:45.520 as good as people think they are, and I think 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.520 the Dolphins will be better. I don't think the Jets 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:49.920 necessarily will be. It doesn't shock me. 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.000 I'm sorry, sorry, as a Jets fan, I have to 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:55.120 do that every time somebody says that the Jets are 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:56.480 not going to be very good, which, to be fair, 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:59.400 it's accurate and happens on every single podcast, So I'm sorry, 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:00.040 go ahead. 0:09:59.800 --> 0:10:01.920 No, that's all good. But I just I mean, I 0:10:01.920 --> 0:10:03.880 could see five and one in the division. Again, I 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.280 could see them splitting with Buffalo and you know, winning 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:09.480 the other four games. And I mean, maybe your view 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:11.400 is different from mine and the Dolphins and the Jets, 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:13.319 and maybe that's kind of how we differ a little 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:17.520 bit here. But again I think that the Patriots until 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:21.840 I'm proven otherwise that you know, maybe it was all Brady, 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:23.560 or maybe it was all you know, some of these 0:10:23.640 --> 0:10:26.280 quality control guys and all that. I just feel like 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:27.600 Belichick finds away. 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:31.559 Yeah, I look, I certainly cannot dispute the Belichick finds away, 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:34.520 because Belichick finds away. It is worth noting you're talking 0:10:34.559 --> 0:10:36.640 about the schedule, and again this is not the best 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.280 way to necessarily analyze the schedule. They actually have the 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.760 toughest schedule in the league in terms of opponents win percentage. 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.520 Last year it's five thirty seven. That's the toughest in 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:48.079 the league. The whole AFC East has a very difficult 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:51.640 schedule because again they play the NFC West, which is 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:53.920 a very solid division where you know, you've got the 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:56.199 Seahawks and you've got the forty nine Ers. The Cardinals 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.520 are going to be improved. The Rams are still putting 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:00.800 up a fight, and then they've got the West, which 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:03.280 again you talked about it not that great from top 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:06.600 to bottom. The Chiefs are, of course fantastic. The Broncos 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:09.520 are going to be improved. The Chargers are a better 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.240 team than they showed last year, even losing Rivers and 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:13.880 going to Tyro. Taylor are not really sure that it's 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:15.880 a downgrade at this point in their careers, but they 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.760 lost all those one score games so they could be better, 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.000 and then you know they were the best team in 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:22.760 the division. They're going to get the Ravens and then 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.240 the Texans, which again, you're right if there's not a 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.280 mutiny over there or Bill O'Brien doesn't trade the entire 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:30.440 team for you know, four tires or something for his 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:33.720 new truck. But yeah, it's an interesting thing, and I 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:38.160 agree the division itself. I like Buffalo. I don't necessarily 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.360 expect you know, they've lost a lot of pieces, but 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.320 they've had a lot of pieces on defense. The big 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:45.120 thing is digs. But again, you've got basically the least 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.559 accurate deep ball quarterback in the game with Josh Allen, 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:50.439 So it's really tough to know what you're gonna see 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:52.679 from then. With the Jets, yeah, I think they're gonna 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.040 be okay like they were last year. They've built up 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.600 their offensive line right now. It's gonna have to see 0:11:57.600 --> 0:11:59.280 what they do in the draft, if they had a receiver, 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.000 or whether or not they had an edge rusher, but 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.640 they obviously need help. The Dolphins, actually you mentioned them. 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:08.080 That's the one that I do like. Here is the 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:10.080 over under of six and again it does depend a 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.360 little bit on the Patriots, but you know, look they 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:14.839 finished five and four down the stretch. They've had a 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.280 monstrous offseason with Byron Jones, who's you know, between him 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.680 and Saving Howard, they're looking really good. They added Shaq 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:22.920 Lawson and Kyle van Noy and the Landon Roberts and 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.560 Emmanuel Agba. The defense is going to be a lot better. 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.120 And on offense they've added a little bit. Jordan Howard 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.360 is better than you know, whoever they were throwing out 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:34.000 there last year, especially Klin Bilage, Ted Carris, Eric Flowers, 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:37.600 you know, Devonte Parker, still developing, Preston Williams if he's healthy, 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:41.200 Micah Sicki. They've got fourteen picks, three in the first round. 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.120 You know, I get that Fits is not the future, 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.160 but he's capable of winning games. Again, tough schedule here, 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.160 but they don't go to Arrowhead, they don't go to Seattle, 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.360 so at least when they get those they'll have a 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:53.760 quote unquote fighting chance and the fact that they'll be home. 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:56.080 They get the Jags, they're home against the Bengals. They've 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.640 got a lot of games that they can win, especially 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:00.640 you mentioned the Jets. Depend on what happens with the 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.160 pat So for me right now, if there's one pick 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:05.240 in this division that I like, and I don't love 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:06.560 any of them, but if I had to go with 0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:08.760 one for me, it would be taking the Dolphins over 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:09.960 six wins. 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:12.240 I agree with that. And you know too, I mean, 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:13.800 you look at the moves that they've made in free 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.199 agency here and kind of the the expectations for them 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:18.960 in the draft where they are going to address the 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.760 offensive side and you know, quite possibly address the quarterback 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.640 position as well. But Flores is a defensive guy by note, 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.520 by trade, So you get a Byron Jones, you get 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:30.760 some pass rushers. I think Emmanuel Lagba is a very 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.920 very good player, just wound up getting overshadowed in Cleveland 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.600 because you know, Miles Garrett's here, and then you get 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.400 you know, Kyle like Kyle van Noy, who Flores obviously knows, well, 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.040 they've got a lot of pieces to build around here 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.520 and something else you really like about Miami and obviously 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:48.880 they got off to the atrocious start last year, but 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.240 he improved the culture of that team. Flores made it 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.120 a point to do that very early in the process, 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.800 to get rid of guys that weren't buying in get 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:00.400 rid of guys that were kind of dragging everybody else down. 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:03.240 And we saw what happened at the tail end of 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.679 the year when they kind of changed that culture. They 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:07.800 got guys that wanted to be there, guys that wanted 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:10.760 to play. They were a much more cohesive unit. So 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:14.120 I think you're definitely onto something there. It's obviously scary 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:16.800 thinging about this team. You'll potentially having to improve to 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.320 seven wins to go over a win total, right, but 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:21.560 you've got to like everything that they've been doing here 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:22.840 over the last eighteen months. 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:26.560 No, absolutely, And again, remember they had five wins, but 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:28.520 that was all in their last nine games, right, I 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:31.480 mean they were basically tanking, so they finished strong. So yeah, 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.040 I think they could get there. It's a two win 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:35.080 improvement is something that kind of shocks you a little bit, 0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:37.320 But with all they've done and how well they played 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.400 down the stretch, I'm willing to buy it. So if 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.560 we did go with one in that division, that would 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.680 be my pick. Let's move on here to the AFC North. 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:46.720 You've got the Ravens at over under of eleven, which 0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:48.640 is a big number, of course, but they earned it 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.600 by going fourteen to two. Steelers are over under nine, 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:53.880 the Browns over under eight and a half, and the 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:57.480 Bengals amasely over under of five. So which of any 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:58.800 of these do you like? 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.440 All right? Well, be a homer here, right, because the 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:04.120 Cleveland Browns are going to be better than they were 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:07.200 last year, and I like this team to go over 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:09.000 eight and a half here. I see there's a couple 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.000 of rogue eights out there as well on the betting board. 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:14.480 I like this team a lot. I mean they're loaded 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:16.960 with skill position talent on offense. Now they pick up 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:20.800 a guy like Austin Hooper, and most importantly, Kevin Stefanski 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.440 seems to know what he's doing. Now, obviously we'll see 0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:26.800 if that translates into being a head coach, but as 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:29.640 an offensive coordinator, as a play caller, as a guy 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:33.680 that knows how to get all of his guys involved, 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.600 much like he did there in Minnesota. I mean, they've 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.640 got so many weapons, and defensively they're very, very good. 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:42.640 They'll improve the offensive line here in the draft. And 0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:45.360 you mentioned it in the top of today's show that 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.760 last year I talked down about them because they had 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.280 such a challenging schedule, in particular early on in the 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.800 season when they were trying to get everybody acclimated to 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.160 what Kitchens wanted to do and all that. Their schedule 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.120 is much much softer this year. I think I saw 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:04.240 they go from like thirtieth and strength to schedule to 0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:06.640 you know, ninth, something like that. 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:10.440 Now they have the fourth in terms of opponents winning percentage, 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.440 at least their fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:15.920 And they don't really have to travel much either. Their 0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:19.240 schedule is very very close to home. I mean, this 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:21.520 is a team and this happens a lot of times too. 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.080 When you've got a team that's expected to do big 0:16:24.120 --> 0:16:28.040 things and they fall flat on their faces, that following 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.320 year is when they kind of tend to come through 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.360 a little bit. I think the Browns are in that 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.920 exact situation right now. And I get it, I'm from Cleveland. 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.400 It sounds like a Homer pick, but you know, hey, 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:39.920 I was honest about them last year, and I think 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:41.520 this is a pretty honest assessment this year. 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:44.040 Well, look, the bottom line is from last year, you've 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.000 earned a ton of credibility, at least for me and 0:16:46.000 --> 0:16:48.960 hopefully with our listeners, because yeah, you per word, cold 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:50.840 water in them. I was more bullish on them. I 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.680 had a tough time justifying the under or not picking 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.320 them to win the division last year because I really 0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:58.480 thought that they were going to come out gangbusters and 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:01.640 it basically unfolded on almost exactly like you said. So 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.840 certainly I'm not taking the home review and I'm not 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.240 going to disagree with really anything that you're saying. I 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.480 like a lot of what they've done here in the 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:12.480 off season. I mean, Hooper was a little strange to me, 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:15.280 you know, because you know, I know in Joko hasn't 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.919 been great, but you know, Stefanski runs a lot of 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.480 two tight ends sense to the to the extent that 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:23.000 they keep in Joko. But I like adding you know, 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:26.320 Jack Conklin and getting a solid backup like case Keenum, 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:28.720 and they're gonna go. You saw that they're their offense 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:30.480 last year, and again it's gonna be a different system. So 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.159 it's not gonna look exactly like that, but you know, 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.879 they're they're keeping Kareem Hunt. I assume they've got a 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:37.080 second round ten around them. I don't think anybody's gonna 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:39.840