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Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. Lots happened since our last

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Speaker 1: episode where we broke down some NFL futures and the

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Speaker 1: Oscar odds, and the NFL offseason just keeps rolling right along.

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Speaker 1: So today we're going to break down some win totals

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Speaker 1: for the AFC. With me to do that is Adam Burke,

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Speaker 1: a sports betting writer over at bangbook dot com host

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Speaker 1: of Bang the Book Radio. You can follow him on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, thanks so much for joining

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Speaker 1: me today.

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Speaker 2: How you doing, I'm good man, How you doing? Not bad?

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's a little weird right now, obviously for

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Speaker 1: many reasons, and there are a lot of more serious

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Speaker 1: things going on in the country than just sports, but

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Speaker 1: the complete lack of sports. I mean, I watched with

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Speaker 1: my kid game seven of the twenty sixteen NBA Finals,

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Speaker 1: where you know, Lebron and the Cavs won, and it

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Speaker 1: was it just like, it reminded me of how bizarre

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Speaker 1: it is right now to not have anything at all

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Speaker 1: just to turn on and watch, you know what, I mean.

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Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, absolutely. I mean it's you know, that's a

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Speaker 2: pretty big day for us around here. That's something you'd

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Speaker 2: almost remember quite well. I mean those are those are

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Speaker 2: the good times, the simpler days, I guess. But the

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Speaker 2: one nice thing I guess about, you know, talking NFL,

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Speaker 2: is that this is kind of the point that the

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Speaker 2: offseason would be in any way. You know, we had

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Speaker 2: a draft coming up in ten days or so, and

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Speaker 2: you know, we were just looking at win totals and

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Speaker 2: futures and all that. It's it's not like we're sitting

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Speaker 2: here talking about how we don't have baseball, which I

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Speaker 2: know is very hard for both of us.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it is. And by the way, Adam is

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Speaker 1: from Cleveland, in case you didn't know that, or at

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Speaker 1: least he is a Cleveland fan. Are you born and

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Speaker 1: raised in Cleveland or what?

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Speaker 2: Born and raised? I actually grew up about ten minutes

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Speaker 2: southwest of downtown.

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Speaker 1: Well, I remember you had last year when we talked

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Speaker 1: in an early episode. You had a correct take about

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Speaker 1: the Browns, you know, in their their future to win

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Speaker 1: the division, and you were not quite as bullish as

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Speaker 1: the general consensus. So you had that one peg. So

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Speaker 1: I'll be interested to hear what you think about their

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Speaker 1: own under today. So for today, as we said, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go division by division. In the AFC, we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about the over unders for every team in

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Speaker 1: the division. Now, for the odds, we're going to be

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Speaker 1: using the consensus over unders from bettingpros dot com. That's

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Speaker 1: the aggregate of the odds that are available in the market,

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Speaker 1: and you can find those over at bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: slash NFL hyphen wins. And you can find more than

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Speaker 1: just the win totals or team futures. If you're interested

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Speaker 1: in the draft, go to bettingpros dot com slash draft

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Speaker 1: hyphen props. Those are consensus lines on things like how

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Speaker 1: many of any position are going to be drafted, or

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Speaker 1: the first pick by team and things like that. You

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Speaker 1: can find lines on pretty much every potential thing to

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Speaker 1: bet in the NFL, So go check it out, all right, Adam,

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the AFC East here, a division which

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Speaker 1: should be a little more interesting than in past years.

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Speaker 1: Right now, the consensus lines are the Bills are over

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Speaker 1: under of nine, the Patriots also over under of nine,

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Speaker 1: Jets are an over under of six and a half,

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Speaker 1: and the Dolphins are an over under of six. So

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Speaker 1: any of these over under, any of these bets, do

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Speaker 1: you find enticing.

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Speaker 2: I think it's you know, really tough to kind of

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Speaker 2: figure out right now because we're still sort of in

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Speaker 2: a holding pattern with New England. I think that New

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Speaker 2: England it's very hard to see them going into the

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Speaker 2: season with you know, Jared Stidham and Brian Hoyer at quarterback,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, maybe they take one in the first round,

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Speaker 2: but I can't imagine that Bill Belichick's gonna run a

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Speaker 2: rookie quarterback out there right away, So maybe Hoyer is

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Speaker 2: kind of a placeholder something like that. But I mean,

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Speaker 2: this defense is still exceptional, you know, it's still one

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Speaker 2: of the best defenses in the AFC, if not the

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Speaker 2: best defense in the AFC. So it's tough to kind

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Speaker 2: of ascertain what to do with the win totals here

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Speaker 2: in the AFC East until we get more clarity on

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Speaker 2: New England's quarterback situation, because if they upgrade at quarterback,

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Speaker 2: this could very well be a team that goes eleven

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Speaker 2: and five, you know, or has a very very strong

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Speaker 2: ten and six record, which at that point in time,

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Speaker 2: would you know, positive or would potentially, I should say

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Speaker 2: impact the Bills impact those two head to head meetings

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Speaker 2: with the Jets. Same thing about their games with the Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: So I couldn't really do too much with the AFC

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Speaker 2: East right now until I figure out where New England's

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Speaker 2: kind of going to fall, because you know, those head

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Speaker 2: to head games with two per team are very important.

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Speaker 1: So let me ask you something, what does upgrade the

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Speaker 1: quarterback position mean to you? Does that mean literally sign

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Speaker 1: anybody else or trade for anybody else or anything like

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Speaker 1: that that's going on. I mean, you we obviously have

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Speaker 1: you know, you've got Jameis Winston and Cam Newton out there.

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Speaker 1: The Bengals are of course looking to deal Andy Dalton

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Speaker 1: if they get one of those guys, is that completely

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Speaker 1: change your outlook on this division? I mean, how would

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Speaker 1: you feel about an over under of nine if they

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Speaker 1: made one of those moves?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would have to go over at

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Speaker 2: that point. And you know, I've even kind of seen

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Speaker 2: some of the places out there in the offshore market

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Speaker 2: kind of have a head to head matchup between New

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Speaker 2: England and Buffalo, and you know who would have more

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Speaker 2: wins in a battle between those two teams and I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: if New England makes an upgrade at quarterback, I think

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Speaker 2: their win total nine and a half looks good. You know,

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Speaker 2: I don't think that they would go all the way

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Speaker 2: up to ten necessarily. And as I look at the

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Speaker 2: betting pros consensus ods, you know, some individual books out

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Speaker 2: there do have nine and a half. I mean, is

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Speaker 2: Dalton a half win upgrade over you know, Hoyer or

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Speaker 2: Stidham or let's say they take you know, Jordan Love

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Speaker 2: or something like that. I think, so is Winston and upgrade. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't have the same skill position talent that he

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Speaker 2: had in Tampa Bay, but I mean he's still a

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Speaker 2: better option, I would say, than Hoyer and Stidham. And

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Speaker 2: you know, Cam Newton could be an option here too.

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Speaker 2: I think New England, if I had to bet it

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Speaker 2: right now, I'm still taking New England to win this division.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be in love with it. But given the

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Speaker 2: fact that both the Patriots and the Bills are sitting

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Speaker 2: there at nine, I mean I would have to look

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Speaker 2: probably more over nine with New England than I would

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Speaker 2: with Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: I think it's fair. I think that I think let's

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Speaker 1: start with your first point, which is It is nearly

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Speaker 1: impossible to accurately kind of assess this division without knowing

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Speaker 1: what the Patriots are going to be doing. Right now,

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Speaker 1: let me start with this. I guess if they don't

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Speaker 1: make an upgrade on quarterback, let's say they go with Stidham. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's say they say, this is what we're doing, this

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Speaker 1: is our future. We like what we've seen, despite the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's thrown what four passes in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: They go, it's Stidham. What do you think about the

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Speaker 1: over under nine? And you pointed it out, by the way,

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Speaker 1: when you look at the consensus odds, it's nine nine

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Speaker 1: and a half, nine nine and a half, nine nine

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Speaker 1: and a half, So it's one of two ways at

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Speaker 1: nine and a half. Personally, if they don't make an upgrade,

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Speaker 1: I'm easy on the under here. I get that the

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Speaker 1: Patriots are incredible. They haven't won fewer than ten games

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and two. The defense is good, they're

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Speaker 1: very good. But they have lost a boatload so far

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Speaker 1: in free agency. Right they lost Kyle Van Nooy, they

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Speaker 1: lost Jamie Collins, they lost Shelton, they lost Harmon, they

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Speaker 1: lost a Landon Roberts. You know, I get that they

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Speaker 1: still have you know, Stefan Gilmore, and they still have

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Speaker 1: mccordy and everything like that. But you know, the thing is, defensively,

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Speaker 1: they're very good, but they're not this elite unit that

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Speaker 1: everybody kind of thought that they were because they were

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Speaker 1: beaten the heck out of that horrible offensive competition that

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Speaker 1: they faced earlier in the year. They're a very solid

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Speaker 1: defensive unit, but I don't think they're good enough for

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Speaker 1: the offense to carry them. And they just have done

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Speaker 1: nothing right now. On offense. I mean they tagged you know,

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Speaker 1: Joe Toney, they still have Mohammed Sanu, they still have

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Speaker 1: Marcus Kennon, but they really I mean, unless you're saying

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Speaker 1: Nikhil Harry or Jacoby Myers are gonna take a huge

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Speaker 1: leap or they're gonna do something with you know, their

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Speaker 1: twelve picks to really make a move or a trade

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Speaker 1: or something like that, this team is not very good.

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Speaker 1: I mean, their defense is is decent, but their offense

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Speaker 1: and you know, all I hear about all the time.

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Speaker 1: And again I live in New England, so this is

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Speaker 1: certainly what I get from my in laws and everything

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Speaker 1: like that, and just from the crowd around here in

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Speaker 1: the sports talk radio is you know, you think back

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Speaker 1: to the Matt Castle gear, but you know, this is

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Speaker 1: not Randy Moss and Wes Welker sitting there on offense.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's not as if he can just Belichick

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Speaker 1: and just do this without Brady. This is not a

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Speaker 1: very good offensive team. So for me, absent a major

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Speaker 1: you know, absent upgraded quarterback for sure, but maybe even

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Speaker 1: more than that. If it's nine and a half, I'm

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Speaker 1: still going under. I'd probably stay away at nine, I guess,

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Speaker 1: But for the nine and a half, I really think

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Speaker 1: I lean under.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean those are all fair points. And you know, again,

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Speaker 2: I mean there are a lot of moving parts with

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Speaker 2: this team, and we know that, you know, they're very,

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Speaker 2: very sharp and very smart organizationally, and there also has

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Speaker 2: been a brain drain in terms of the coaching staff too.

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Speaker 2: You know, you lose a guy like a Jerry Schaplinsky,

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Speaker 2: you know, somebody like that, a guy that, yeah he's

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Speaker 2: not an offensive coordinator, Yeah he's not going to get

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Speaker 2: the same headlines, but a guy that's you know, been

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Speaker 2: in that quarterback room, been in that offensive room, obviously

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Speaker 2: a very smart guy. Three Super Bowl rings. Now I

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Speaker 2: don't even think he's forty yet, or he's pretty close

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Speaker 2: to it. That's another byproduct of being really good is

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Speaker 2: that you start losing some very smart people within the

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Speaker 2: organization as well. Now that being said, you'll get their

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Speaker 2: eight home games here, they get San Francisco and they

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Speaker 2: get Baltimore at home, two very very difficult games. Otherwise,

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Speaker 2: you've got the three Division teams Denver, Las Vegas, and

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Speaker 2: Arizona all six of those very very winnable games. And

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Speaker 2: on the road. I'm low on the Rams for this season,

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Speaker 2: which I'm sure we'll talk about in a little bit.

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Speaker 2: I'm very on Seattle for this season. Those are two

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Speaker 2: road games that there'll be an underdog in in all likelihood,

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Speaker 2: but I think they're kind of there for the taking.

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Speaker 2: The three Division games. Houston, I mean, who knows if

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Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson doesn't just walk out on that team at

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Speaker 2: some point here with everything that's going on with them,

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Speaker 2: Kansas City and the Chargers a couple of tough road

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Speaker 2: games against the AFC West. I don't think their schedule

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Speaker 2: is that bad, and I think if they've got a

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Speaker 2: quarterback that doesn't actively hurt them the schedule sets up

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Speaker 2: relatively well for them to be, you know, a ten

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Speaker 2: and six type team if everything falls into place. But again,

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Speaker 2: you're talking about a much thinner margin for error than

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Speaker 2: we've seen in the past. I think it's more of

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Speaker 2: a commentary to me on I don't think Buffalo is

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Speaker 2: as good as people think they are, and I think

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins will be better. I don't think the Jets

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Speaker 2: necessarily will be. It doesn't shock me.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, sorry, as a Jets fan, I have to

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Speaker 1: do that every time somebody says that the Jets are

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Speaker 1: not going to be very good, which, to be fair,

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Speaker 1: it's accurate and happens on every single podcast, So I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: go ahead.

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Speaker 2: No, that's all good. But I just I mean, I

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Speaker 2: could see five and one in the division. Again, I

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Speaker 2: could see them splitting with Buffalo and you know, winning

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Speaker 2: the other four games. And I mean, maybe your view

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Speaker 2: is different from mine and the Dolphins and the Jets,

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Speaker 2: and maybe that's kind of how we differ a little

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Speaker 2: bit here. But again I think that the Patriots until

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Speaker 2: I'm proven otherwise that you know, maybe it was all Brady,

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Speaker 2: or maybe it was all you know, some of these

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Speaker 2: quality control guys and all that. I just feel like

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Speaker 2: Belichick finds away.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I look, I certainly cannot dispute the Belichick finds away,

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Speaker 1: because Belichick finds away. It is worth noting you're talking

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Speaker 1: about the schedule, and again this is not the best

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Speaker 1: way to necessarily analyze the schedule. They actually have the

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Speaker 1: toughest schedule in the league in terms of opponents win percentage.

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Speaker 1: Last year it's five thirty seven. That's the toughest in

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Speaker 1: the league. The whole AFC East has a very difficult

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Speaker 1: schedule because again they play the NFC West, which is

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Speaker 1: a very solid division where you know, you've got the

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Speaker 1: Seahawks and you've got the forty nine Ers. The Cardinals

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Speaker 1: are going to be improved. The Rams are still putting

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Speaker 1: up a fight, and then they've got the West, which

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Speaker 1: again you talked about it not that great from top

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Speaker 1: to bottom. The Chiefs are, of course fantastic. The Broncos

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Speaker 1: are going to be improved. The Chargers are a better

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Speaker 1: team than they showed last year, even losing Rivers and

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Speaker 1: going to Tyro. Taylor are not really sure that it's

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Speaker 1: a downgrade at this point in their careers, but they

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Speaker 1: lost all those one score games so they could be better,

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Speaker 1: and then you know they were the best team in

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Speaker 1: the division. They're going to get the Ravens and then

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Speaker 1: the Texans, which again, you're right if there's not a

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Speaker 1: mutiny over there or Bill O'Brien doesn't trade the entire

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Speaker 1: team for you know, four tires or something for his

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Speaker 1: new truck. But yeah, it's an interesting thing, and I

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Speaker 1: agree the division itself. I like Buffalo. I don't necessarily

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Speaker 1: expect you know, they've lost a lot of pieces, but

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Speaker 1: they've had a lot of pieces on defense. The big

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Speaker 1: thing is digs. But again, you've got basically the least

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Speaker 1: accurate deep ball quarterback in the game with Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: So it's really tough to know what you're gonna see

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Speaker 1: from then. With the Jets, yeah, I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be okay like they were last year. They've built up

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Speaker 1: their offensive line right now. It's gonna have to see

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Speaker 1: what they do in the draft, if they had a receiver,

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Speaker 1: or whether or not they had an edge rusher, but

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Speaker 1: they obviously need help. The Dolphins, actually you mentioned them.

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Speaker 1: That's the one that I do like. Here is the

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Speaker 1: over under of six and again it does depend a

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Speaker 1: little bit on the Patriots, but you know, look they

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Speaker 1: finished five and four down the stretch. They've had a

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Speaker 1: monstrous offseason with Byron Jones, who's you know, between him

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Speaker 1: and Saving Howard, they're looking really good. They added Shaq

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Speaker 1: Lawson and Kyle van Noy and the Landon Roberts and

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Speaker 1: Emmanuel Agba. The defense is going to be a lot better.

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Speaker 1: And on offense they've added a little bit. Jordan Howard

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Speaker 1: is better than you know, whoever they were throwing out

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Speaker 1: there last year, especially Klin Bilage, Ted Carris, Eric Flowers,

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Speaker 1: you know, Devonte Parker, still developing, Preston Williams if he's healthy,

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Speaker 1: Micah Sicki. They've got fourteen picks, three in the first round.

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Speaker 1: You know, I get that Fits is not the future,

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Speaker 1: but he's capable of winning games. Again, tough schedule here,

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Speaker 1: but they don't go to Arrowhead, they don't go to Seattle,

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Speaker 1: so at least when they get those they'll have a

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Speaker 1: quote unquote fighting chance and the fact that they'll be home.

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Speaker 1: They get the Jags, they're home against the Bengals. They've

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Speaker 1: got a lot of games that they can win, especially

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Speaker 1: you mentioned the Jets. Depend on what happens with the

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Speaker 1: pat So for me right now, if there's one pick

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Speaker 1: in this division that I like, and I don't love

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Speaker 1: any of them, but if I had to go with

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Speaker 1: one for me, it would be taking the Dolphins over

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Speaker 1: six wins.

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Speaker 2: I agree with that. And you know too, I mean,

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Speaker 2: you look at the moves that they've made in free

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Speaker 2: agency here and kind of the the expectations for them

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Speaker 2: in the draft where they are going to address the

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Speaker 2: offensive side and you know, quite possibly address the quarterback

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Speaker 2: position as well. But Flores is a defensive guy by note,

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Speaker 2: by trade, So you get a Byron Jones, you get

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Speaker 2: some pass rushers. I think Emmanuel Lagba is a very

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Speaker 2: very good player, just wound up getting overshadowed in Cleveland

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Speaker 2: because you know, Miles Garrett's here, and then you get

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Speaker 2: you know, Kyle like Kyle van Noy, who Flores obviously knows, well,

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Speaker 2: they've got a lot of pieces to build around here

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Speaker 2: and something else you really like about Miami and obviously

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Speaker 2: they got off to the atrocious start last year, but

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Speaker 2: he improved the culture of that team. Flores made it

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Speaker 2: a point to do that very early in the process,

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Speaker 2: to get rid of guys that weren't buying in get

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Speaker 2: rid of guys that were kind of dragging everybody else down.

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Speaker 2: And we saw what happened at the tail end of

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Speaker 2: the year when they kind of changed that culture. They

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Speaker 2: got guys that wanted to be there, guys that wanted

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Speaker 2: to play. They were a much more cohesive unit. So

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Speaker 2: I think you're definitely onto something there. It's obviously scary

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Speaker 2: thinging about this team. You'll potentially having to improve to

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Speaker 2: seven wins to go over a win total, right, but

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Speaker 2: you've got to like everything that they've been doing here

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Speaker 2: over the last eighteen months.

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Speaker 1: No, absolutely, And again, remember they had five wins, but

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Speaker 1: that was all in their last nine games, right, I

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Speaker 1: mean they were basically tanking, so they finished strong. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think they could get there. It's a two win

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Speaker 1: improvement is something that kind of shocks you a little bit,

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Speaker 1: But with all they've done and how well they played

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Speaker 1: down the stretch, I'm willing to buy it. So if

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Speaker 1: we did go with one in that division, that would

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Speaker 1: be my pick. Let's move on here to the AFC North.

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Speaker 1: You've got the Ravens at over under of eleven, which

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Speaker 1: is a big number, of course, but they earned it

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Speaker 1: by going fourteen to two. Steelers are over under nine,

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Speaker 1: the Browns over under eight and a half, and the

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Speaker 1: Bengals amasely over under of five. So which of any

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Speaker 1: of these do you like?

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Speaker 2: All right? Well, be a homer here, right, because the

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Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns are going to be better than they were

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Speaker 2: last year, and I like this team to go over

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Speaker 2: eight and a half here. I see there's a couple

347
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Speaker 2: of rogue eights out there as well on the betting board.

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Speaker 2: I like this team a lot. I mean they're loaded

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Speaker 2: with skill position talent on offense. Now they pick up

350
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Speaker 2: a guy like Austin Hooper, and most importantly, Kevin Stefanski

351
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Speaker 2: seems to know what he's doing. Now, obviously we'll see

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Speaker 2: if that translates into being a head coach, but as

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Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator, as a play caller, as a guy

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Speaker 2: that knows how to get all of his guys involved,

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Speaker 2: much like he did there in Minnesota. I mean, they've

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Speaker 2: got so many weapons, and defensively they're very, very good.

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Speaker 2: They'll improve the offensive line here in the draft. And

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Speaker 2: you mentioned it in the top of today's show that

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Speaker 2: last year I talked down about them because they had

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Speaker 2: such a challenging schedule, in particular early on in the

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Speaker 2: season when they were trying to get everybody acclimated to

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Speaker 2: what Kitchens wanted to do and all that. Their schedule

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Speaker 2: is much much softer this year. I think I saw

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Speaker 2: they go from like thirtieth and strength to schedule to

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Speaker 2: you know, ninth, something like that.

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Speaker 1: Now they have the fourth in terms of opponents winning percentage,

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Speaker 1: at least their fourth easiest schedule in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: And they don't really have to travel much either. Their

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Speaker 2: schedule is very very close to home. I mean, this

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Speaker 2: is a team and this happens a lot of times too.

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Speaker 2: When you've got a team that's expected to do big

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Speaker 2: things and they fall flat on their faces, that following

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Speaker 2: year is when they kind of tend to come through

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Speaker 2: a little bit. I think the Browns are in that

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Speaker 2: exact situation right now. And I get it, I'm from Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: It sounds like a Homer pick, but you know, hey,

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Speaker 2: I was honest about them last year, and I think

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Speaker 2: this is a pretty honest assessment this year.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, the bottom line is from last year, you've

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Speaker 1: earned a ton of credibility, at least for me and

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Speaker 1: hopefully with our listeners, because yeah, you per word, cold

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Speaker 1: water in them. I was more bullish on them. I

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Speaker 1: had a tough time justifying the under or not picking

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Speaker 1: them to win the division last year because I really

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Speaker 1: thought that they were going to come out gangbusters and

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Speaker 1: it basically unfolded on almost exactly like you said. So

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Speaker 1: certainly I'm not taking the home review and I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to disagree with really anything that you're saying. I

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Speaker 1: like a lot of what they've done here in the

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Speaker 1: off season. I mean, Hooper was a little strange to me,

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Speaker 1: you know, because you know, I know in Joko hasn't

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Speaker 1: been great, but you know, Stefanski runs a lot of

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Speaker 1: two tight ends sense to the to the extent that

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Speaker 1: they keep in Joko. But I like adding you know,

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Speaker 1: Jack Conklin and getting a solid backup like case Keenum,

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna go. You saw that they're their offense

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Speaker 1: last year, and again it's gonna be a different system. So

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Speaker 1: it's not gonna look exactly like that, but you know,

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Speaker 1: they're they're keeping Kareem Hunt. I assume they've got a

400
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Speaker 1: second round ten around them. I don't think anybody's gonna

401
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Speaker 1: want to pay that. And you know they've got Andy Jenovitch,

402
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,080
Speaker 1: So they want to run the ball, right that that's

403
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Speaker 1: sort of part of what they're going to be doing.

404
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield's gonna work a lot better on play action passing.

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Speaker 1: So I find it hard and it's probably the optics,

406
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Speaker 1: even though it shouldn't because it's an entirely new coaching

407
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Speaker 1: staff and they still have talent to do the I'm

408
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Speaker 1: gonna go they're going to improve three wins, right, that's well,

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Speaker 1: that's just a lot in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: They were six and ten last year, so it's hard

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Speaker 1: for me to go out there. But I really I

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Speaker 1: can't really disagree with anything that you're saying in this one,

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Speaker 1: especially again they've got a really really easy schedule and

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Speaker 1: the travel. You're right, So for me, yeah, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to really argue with it. It's not bad the

417
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Speaker 1: one that I like a little better in this one. Again,

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Speaker 1: maybe I just like the worst team in the division

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Speaker 1: and the lowest over under, but I kind of like

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Speaker 1: the Bengals over and again this is one where you'd

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Speaker 1: have to go way over because it's they were two

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Speaker 1: and fourteen last year and the over unders five, so

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Speaker 1: you're expecting them to improve six wins. But this kind

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Speaker 1: of offseason has been different than the usual Bengals offseason, right.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they've spent money, They've gone out there and

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Speaker 1: they've they've really helped their defense with DJ Reader, Trey Wayns, McKenzie,

427
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Speaker 1: Alexander and Von Bell. So they're going to be better

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Speaker 1: against the run. And you know, Wayns and Alexander they

429
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 1: weren't that great in twenty nineteen and they've lost you know,

430
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 1: Darkez Dennard and Drake Kirkpatrick. But you know, I do

431
00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 1: think defensively they're going to be better and on offense, Look,

432
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 1: they're gonna get aj Greenback and you have to assume

433
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 1: that they're gonna get Joe Burrow. It's possible they trade

434
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 1: that pick, but everything I've seen sounds like they're gonna

435
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 1: go for it. They sell a Dalton on the roster

436
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 1: if not, but they're gonna get with Joe Burrow. And look,

437
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 1: can you find six wins? You look at their schedule.

438
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 1: They've got the Redskins, they've got the Jaguars, They've got

439
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 1: the Dolphins, who are gonna be improved. But you know

440
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 1: that that's certainly a potential. They've got the Giants, you know,

441
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 1: those are those are some games that they could easily win.

442
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,680
Speaker 1: Divisional games are always up in the air. Five wins

443
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 1: is a pretty low total. I don't love it, and

444
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,280
Speaker 1: this division is my least favorite division in terms of

445
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:36,120
Speaker 1: finding a pick that I really like. But I kind

446
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,159
Speaker 1: of can see and again this is me probably assuming

447
00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 1: that they go with Joe Burrow, but I could kind

448
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 1: of see, you know, in in their second year under Taylor,

449
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 1: the Bengals taking a leap and getting to more than

450
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 1: five wins.

451
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that one, that one's tough for me to get

452
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 2: to simply because I want to see what the defense

453
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,880
Speaker 2: looks like. You know, we know the offense should be better.

454
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: I mean, Burrow's gonna have Green, he's gonna have mix,

455
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,159
Speaker 2: and he's gonna have some guys that he can kind

456
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 2: of work with a little. But what happens with this defense?

457
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,679
Speaker 2: I mean, can this defense get stops? And again, I

458
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:07,679
Speaker 2: always like to look I base a lot of this

459
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 2: on the six games within the division. The Browns obviously

460
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 2: look very good and look capable of scoring a lot

461
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 2: of points. Pittsburgh will get Ben Roethlisberger back whatever state

462
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: he's in at this point in his career, and then

463
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 2: there's Baltimore, who is probably just the best team in

464
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 2: the AFC. And you know, unless you consider the Chiefs

465
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 2: to be the best team in the AFC, they're kind

466
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,439
Speaker 2: of one A and one B right there. Can the

467
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 2: Bengals find wins outside of the division, because if they

468
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 2: go zero to six in the division, which is very possible,

469
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 2: then you're asking him to kind of get six wins

470
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 2: out of their other ten games. That's a little bit

471
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 2: difficult for me to kind of wrap my head around.

472
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 2: But I will say this, I do think that you

473
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 2: start building the foundation because Taylor, again by trade a

474
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 2: quarterbacks kind of guy. You get him Burrow, you see

475
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 2: him provement in the second half of the season. Maybe

476
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 2: next year is the bye year for a team like that.

477
00:20:58,119 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: I will say, though, maybe this kind of works in

478
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 2: with your thoughts on the Bengals. I'm not real high

479
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,199
Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh this season, you know. I mean, I think

480
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh is a team that is obviously still a

481
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: very very well run organization, but there were questions all

482
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 2: year long last year about Mike Tomlin and his job

483
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 2: security and all that Ben Roethlisberger goes down gives them

484
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: an easy excuse to, you know, just sort of keep

485
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,199
Speaker 2: things status quo and you know, wait and see what

486
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 2: happens next year. But I'm not a real big fan

487
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: of this Pittsburgh team. I don't know what we're going

488
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: to get from Ben. Obviously, it was going to be

489
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 2: more difficult having Antonio Brown alongside Juju Smith Schuster, and

490
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 2: we saw that with Smith Schuster, I mean it was

491
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 2: it was tough for him to get open. It was

492
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 2: tough for him to find a lot of room to work.

493
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: Is Ben gonna be able to throw it in those windows?

494
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't think so. Pittsburgh is a

495
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 2: team that I'm just pretty sour on overall for this

496
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 2: upcoming season. I was sour on them a little bit

497
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: to a degree last year, and I did I don't

498
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 2: see them getting to nine and seven. I mean, obviously

499
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 2: they went eight and eight and you would think, oh,

500
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 2: upgrade Ben's back and this and that. I just think

501
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 2: that the Browns passed them by, and maybe within a

502
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 2: couple of years the Bengals do too.

503
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't love the Steelers over nine at all.

504
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: I don't really know what to make of them because

505
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 1: they are basically the same team right, They've got a

506
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: great offensive line, they've got a great defense. They once

507
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,479
Speaker 1: they brought in Minko Fitzpatrick, it was, you know, the

508
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: defense really turned and they basically got to eight and

509
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: eight with nothing at quarterback last year. So if Ben

510
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 1: can do anything, you do kind of feel like they'll

511
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 1: be better. But I think the fact that they did

512
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: get to eight and eight last year makes me just say,

513
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 1: you know, no matter what, they're going to be a

514
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: tough opponent, you know. So you can't look at even

515
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: if Ben is terrible, you can't look at at that

516
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 1: as a game that the Bengals can be like, oh great, well,

517
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: when I agree, you look at their schedule, it's not

518
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: that forgiving. I mean, they do have an easy schedule,

519
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: the whole NFC AFC North does, but there aren't that

520
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: many games that you look at and can say, oh, wow,

521
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: this is game the Bengals are definitely gonna win. But

522
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 1: at the same time, I do just feel like this

523
00:22:58,520 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: is going to be a team. I think their cultures

524
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,639
Speaker 1: and be better. I think if they get Burrow, I

525
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: think they're going to be which I'm kind of banking

526
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 1: on at this point that they're going to be well

527
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 1: improved offensively. So this is a team that I kind

528
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 1: of like, I'm not overly bullish on, but I think

529
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 1: I can see them getting a six months. Let's move

530
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 1: on here.

531
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 2: Let me ask you real quickly. Go ahead, because by

532
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 2: and large, and I talked about this a lot when

533
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: I wrote the MLB Betting Guide, which is now and

534
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: large juiceless with the season, you know, being so shortened

535
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 2: if it gets played at all. But one of the

536
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: things I always talk about in that betting guide is that,

537
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 2: as a general rule, I don't like to play really

538
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 2: high or really low win totals because there's just not

539
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 2: a lot of margin for error. It's very hard to

540
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 2: bet on the degree to which a team will be

541
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 2: really good or the degree to which a team will

542
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 2: be really bad. Is there any way you can take

543
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 2: Baltimore under eleven or under eleven and a half, because

544
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: I don't think I could. It would have to be

545
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 2: over or nothing. Right.

546
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again they you want to talk about they

547
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 1: have the easiest schedule in opponents winning percentage of four

548
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 1: thirty eight, so it's really really difficult. I remember one

549
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: of their quote unquote harder matchups is the Patriots, which

550
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 1: is not going to be nearly as hard a matchup

551
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: as it was last year for the reasons that we discussed.

552
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: But in the end, yeah, no, I agree with you.

553
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 1: I'm certainly not going under. I just I couldn't you

554
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 1: look at what they've done this offseason. They're probably only

555
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 1: better right now on paper. Right they traded for Kalais

556
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: Campbell and adding Derek Wolf and everything like that. It's

557
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,880
Speaker 1: really going to be tough. They've got to add an

558
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: inside linebacker, they've got to bulk up the interior of

559
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: their offensive line. But really they're basically just as good

560
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: as last year. Is there a chance that the league

561
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 1: can adjust to Lamar Jackson? I mean, is there a

562
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 1: chance that was there a quote unquote blueprint that the

563
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 1: Titans were able to put out there in the playoffs.

564
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 1: I don't really think so. But you know, it's hard

565
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: with this type of offense that they run that you

566
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: just feel like eventually a team's going to kind of

567
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: figure out how to play them. But for me, no,

568
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I don't like it because eleven's

569
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 1: way too big a number for me to really sit there,

570
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: and there is a high or over under that I

571
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: like the under which we'll talk about in a few minutes.

572
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: But for me, yeah, I agree. If I worried about

573
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: on the Ravens right now, I would go over the

574
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: eleven because it's just really difficult, especially with they've had

575
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: a very good offseason, to see them really falling off

576
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,719
Speaker 1: too much. Let's go to the AFC South here, and

577
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 1: this one's kind of all bunched up together. You've got

578
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: the Titans at eight and a half, the Colts at

579
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 1: eight and a half, the Texans at eight, and the

580
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 1: Jaguars at five. So what do you think here?

581
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 2: This one's tough. I mean, this one is really really tough, especially.

582
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: One there's one I like only other than that, I

583
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:32,360
Speaker 1: really don't want any part of this.

584
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 2: Division, especially because you know we've seen the adjustment to

585
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 2: Houston and deservedly so. I mean, this is a team

586
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: that you know want its division last year at ten

587
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 2: and six with a negative point differential, and they trade it.

588
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 2: As much as I love Deshaun Watson, they trade away

589
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: their best offensive player in DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller

590
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 2: is never healthy. Brandon Cooks has always got the concussion

591
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 2: background that you know you need to worry about. Maybe

592
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: David Johnson sort of has a career resurgence. I don't know,

593
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: but it's unfortunate that Houston has already been adjusted down

594
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 2: enough some places, even showing seven and a half out

595
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 2: there now that you can't really take that one. I mean,

596
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 2: were the Titans. Are the Titans going to be as

597
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 2: good as they were in the second half of last year?

598
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 2: Probably not. Do I still think that they're the team

599
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 2: most likely to win this division? Yeah, I think so,

600
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: so over eight and a half with Tennessee probably my

601
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: favorite play. But it also doesn't shock me if any

602
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 2: of these three teams, you know, whatever order they finish one, two, three,

603
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 2: not gonna surprise me at all. The only thing I

604
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 2: think is for certain is that Jacksonville probably does finish

605
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 2: in the basement here once again.

606
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Jacksonville is coming as close to outright

607
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: tanking as you possibly can be without seriously just saying, yes,

608
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,959
Speaker 1: we are trying to lose. But for me, the one

609
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 1: I like actually is and there's no way I'm going

610
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 1: anywhere near the Texans because I don't know what the

611
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: psyche of that team has to be. Right now, where

612
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 1: you have trades that you know, everybody who looks at

613
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: is like, what is happening right now? How could you

614
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 1: possibly do that? And Bill O'Brien just like, yeah, this

615
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: works for me, and I have total control, so I'm

616
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 1: gonna do what I want for me. I kind of

617
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: like the Colts at over eight and a half. So

618
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: here's why I personally probably a little more I don't

619
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: want to even use the word bullish, but a little

620
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: more positive on Rivers and what he has left in

621
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: the tank. I honestly think that last year was much

622
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: more about him just getting the crap kicked out of

623
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: him all the time. He was sacked thirty four times.

624
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: He was pressured thirty six percent of the time. Nobody

625
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: likes pressure, no quarterback, especially someone who is basically a

626
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: mobile like Rivers. He had a terrible offensive line. Now

627
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 1: he's with the Colts, which is kind of the perfect

628
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,719
Speaker 1: spot because I have a great offensive line and they

629
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: kept you know, Anthony Castanzo. That was a huge move.

630
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 1: He's familiar with the sick with the system because of

631
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: Nick Soriani, and he's got enough pieces on offense. As

632
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 1: long as Paris Campbell can stay healthy, Marlon Mack is

633
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,160
Speaker 1: still a quality back. I don't I don't love Marlon Mack,

634
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: but he's a quote unquote quality back. He's good enough.

635
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 1: They've got Nahima Hines for all the dump offs that

636
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: Rivers likes to do. They are solid defensively. They let

637
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 1: pier de siergo, but they added to Forrest Buckner. Not

638
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: sure that he was worth a thirteenth pick, but certainly

639
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: that's an addition for them. So, look, they can go

640
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: four and two in the division. I assume, you know,

641
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: they can be Jacksonville twice. They'll probably split, let's say,

642
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: with Tennessee and Houston. They get the Jets, the Raiders,

643
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 1: the Bengals, the Lions, the Bears. It's not the easiest

644
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 1: schedule overall, but they have a ton of winnable games.

645
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: I just I really like that team. I think the

646
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,719
Speaker 1: fact that they they you know, they wound up finishing

647
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 1: seven to nine last year, but for a while they

648
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 1: look like they were gonna possibly win that division with

649
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett, who is just not equality NFL quarterback in

650
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 1: my personal opinion, And the fact that they had to

651
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: do that while losing luck in the preseason. You know,

652
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 1: I know they were kind of preparing for it, but

653
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: they weren't exactly saying yes, we're gonna go in here

654
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: with Brissett. That was still kind of a big blow.

655
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: And they're just so well coached, they've been put together.

656
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,040
Speaker 1: The bones of the team are really strong. So I

657
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: think if Rivers has anything left, and personally I do.

658
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 1: I know how bad he looked, but again he was

659
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: just he was just getting blown up every single play there.

660
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: The Chargers offensive line was terrible last year, so I

661
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: think it's got a little more in the tank. You

662
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: give him an offensive line, you give him a decent

663
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: team around him, and him a well coached team. I

664
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: think that's a team that can get to nine wins.

665
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's fair. And again we see that

666
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: with the Jews that's out there in the market ranging

667
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: anywhere from you know, minus one twenty five on up

668
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 2: and look Rivers to me again, feels like one of

669
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 2: those guys that and he's probably earned this right being

670
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 2: you know what is the almost forty now or over forty.

671
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: He's earned this right of being comfortable, and like you said,

672
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: last year, he was uncomfortable. He had the offensive line issues.

673
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: You know, he was very good for Ken wizen Hunt

674
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 2: too for a while, and then wizen Hunt I don't

675
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: know if the shine came off of him or if

676
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 2: they just wanted to make a change or what. That's

677
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 2: something that probably did impact Rivers negatively as well. You

678
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 2: mentioned Sirianni and kind of the rapport that he has

679
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 2: with him. Sirianni was the quarterbacks coach for the then

680
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 2: San Diego Chargers, also a wide receivers coach. Rivers is

681
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 2: comfortable with Syrian. He would have to be, otherwise he

682
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 2: wouldn't have, you know, said okay, I'll go to the Colts.

683
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: So that helps. I think Frank Reich is an awesome

684
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 2: head coach. I think that he's had a lot of

685
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 2: hardship to deal with, in particular on the injury side

686
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: as it pertains to the Colts, you know, with the

687
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: couple years that he's been there. So I think he's

688
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: a very very good fit. You know, to have a

689
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 2: guy like Philip Rivers. They get a lot of third

690
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 2: and short situations. That's somewhere where Rivers can excel. If

691
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 2: it's third and three, third and four, Rivers is fine.

692
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: If it's third and eight, third and nine and the

693
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 2: pass rushers are coming, it's a lot tougher for Philip Rivers.

694
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: So I think schematically it fits. Personnel wise it fits.

695
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 2: I completely agree with you on both of those counts.

696
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 2: I need to see the defense. I don't even want

697
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 2: to say improve, but just stay healthy, man. I mean,

698
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 2: you know, that's one of the things I failed to

699
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 2: mention about the Browns is that they had three or

700
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 2: four weeks in a row last year where there are

701
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 2: four starters in the secondary were all out. And when

702
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: Indianapolis is healthy and at something resembling full strength, they

703
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 2: are a very, very good football team. It's a two

704
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 2: horse race between the Colts and the Titans for this

705
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 2: division crown as far as I'm concerned, and I think

706
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 2: you could make very strong, very compelling arguments for the

707
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 2: over with both of them. And I think that we've

708
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: kind of done that.

709
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that when we say it's two

710
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: horse race, which I agree with, then you and I

711
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: can have another podcast at the end of the season

712
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: after the Texans miraculously go twelve and four, just bye

713
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: a negative point differential, which they seem to be able

714
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: to do. The one thing you pointed out, by the way,

715
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: which is true. I should have pointed that out. I mean,

716
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 1: this is you know, it's pretty juice, right, I mean

717
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: to take the over, it's minus one twenty five and

718
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,719
Speaker 1: it's plus one oh three to take the under, So

719
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that the over is the right

720
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 1: side at this point. I think that you know, it

721
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: wasn't like that. Frankly a week ago it was much closer.

722
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,239
Speaker 1: So I think it's moving that way, and I think

723
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: that there's a reason.

724
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 2: Well that's an important distinction for listeners too, is that

725
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: you know, as a general rule, you know it's about

726
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 2: I want to say it's about forty to fifty cents,

727
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 2: was about a half win in the NFL marketplace. I

728
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 2: apologize if I'm off by that, but I feel like

729
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 2: I remember hearing that. So this is almost essentially like

730
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 2: what over nine at. You know, maybe a little bit

731
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: of a plus money price something like that. Would you

732
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 2: be willing to take that. If the answer is yes,

733
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: then don't necessarily be afraid of that little bit of

734
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: extra juice on the over eight and a half because

735
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 2: you're kind of getting like a really cheap nine price.

736
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 2: And if you're comfortable with doing that, you know, obviously

737
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 2: it takes away the push on nine, then you know,

738
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: by all means, go ahead and do it. If you

739
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: feel strongly enough about it.

740
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great point. And again, you know, for

741
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 1: the most part, with all of these, they're they're almost

742
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 1: not all, but the vast majority of them are. The

743
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: juice is minus one ten on the over or the under.

744
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: Like the entire AFC West, which we're about to talk about,

745
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: over and under is all one ten minus one ten

746
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: all around. So this is one, you know where it's

747
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: a little and some books. Look, I'm looking at one.

748
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 1: I think it might be it's a FanDuel. So on

749
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: FanDuel you look at it. Over eight and a half

750
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: is minus one, say, and under is plus one thirty five.

751
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: So again that's another reason to shop around. But yeah,

752
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: for this one in particular, there's really a big disparity

753
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: between the over and the underwitch there aren't usually, and

754
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: there aren't necessarily with the West, where everyone is at

755
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: either over or under at minus one ten, and that's

756
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 1: the chiefs at over under an eleven and a half.

757
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: Everyone else in the division seven and a half, Broncos

758
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: Chargers Raiders all over under seven and a half. Everybody

759
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: the juices minus one ten on either side. So how

760
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: do you feel, do you like any of these.

761
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 2: Well, you know again, I mean, we're talking about teams that,

762
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 2: at least according to the win total odds are kind

763
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 2: of interchangeable there with Denver, the Chargers, and the Raiders.

764
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 2: And there's one that I disagree with, and that's the Chargers.

765
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that this is a team that

766
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: you know, we just talked about it with Philip Rivers

767
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 2: and how he has the mobility of an Easter Island statue.

768
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor does not. Tyrod Taylor can move around a

769
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 2: little bit. And while I really wanted Jameis Winston to

770
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: land in LA with the Chargers, and who knows, maybe

771
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 2: he's still could, Taylor's probably an upgrade just from the

772
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 2: simple fact that he can move around the fact that

773
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: they can. Now I don't know if they're going to

774
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 2: try to adopt something of a Lamar Jackson style offense

775
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 2: with you know, the backs that they have in a

776
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 2: mobile quarterback like Taylor, but they're not handicapped by the

777
00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 2: fact that Philip Rivers can't move They're not handicap by

778
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 2: the fact that Philip Rivers won't QB sneak on third

779
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 2: and one or fourth and one anymore. They've got a

780
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 2: guy in Tyrod Taylor, who's going to be willing to

781
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 2: move around, and I think that's going to help everything

782
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:31,240
Speaker 2: about this offense. And look, this defense can be downright

783
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: nasty as long as everybody's healthy. They obviously have the

784
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: pass rush. You know, you got Linval Joseph in the

785
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: middle defensively to kind of help them out with the

786
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 2: run a little bit. Again, another team that needs to

787
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 2: stay healthy in the back seven. But if we're talking

788
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: about ceiling, which by and large is what I try

789
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 2: to look at with any win total market in any sport,

790
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 2: I want to look at ceiling and I want to

791
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 2: look at floor, and I think the floor for the

792
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 2: Chargers probably is that six and ten, seven and nine range.

793
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 2: I think their ceiling could be as high as ten

794
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 2: and six if everything falls into place for them. So

795
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: because they've got a bigger gap between floor and ceiling

796
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,799
Speaker 2: than say the Broncos or the Raiders, the Chargers would

797
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 2: have to be the one. I'd look at it over

798
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 2: seven and a half.

799
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 1: Yep, that is the one that I like here as well.

800
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: And you know you brought up the good point first

801
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 1: of all out of curiosity. Do you think they're going

802
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 1: in with Tyrod Taylor or do you think they're going

803
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 1: to be doing something else?

804
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 2: Oh? Man, I mean, if if they were going to

805
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 2: do Tyrod Taylor, wouldn't they have already gotten somebody else?

806
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 1: Do you assume?

807
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: But I mean, or do they do they draft someone?

808
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: You know, I think they probably do draft someone, but

809
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 1: I think it's much more of a long term pick.

810
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,279
Speaker 1: What are they six? I think they're the six pick

811
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:37,919
Speaker 1: in the draft. I think it's more of a long

812
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: term option. So if they're if they take.

813
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,959
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert, does he start you know, like maybe week three,

814
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 2: week four, something like that, or do they give Taylor

815
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 2: all year?

816
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it could be sort of like they did

817
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 1: with Taylor with the Browns right where he started out

818
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: the season then they turned it over to Mayfield. So

819
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 1: they certainly could do something like that. But I agree

820
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:55,720
Speaker 1: with you. By the way, this is the one pick

821
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: that I like. And you know, remember we talked about

822
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 1: the offensive line, and it's great to have Taylor who's

823
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,720
Speaker 1: able to get away from pressure. But they also upgraded

824
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 1: the offensive line right with Turner and Brian Blaga. So

825
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 1: you know, I agree with you basically all the points

826
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,720
Speaker 1: that you made, and you know, you look at their schedule,

827
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 1: They've got a ton of winnable games obviously, you know,

828
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: the Raiders and the Broncos. I think you're looking like

829
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 1: I do, is that you know, you can easily see them,

830
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 1: you know, being the better team of all the seven

831
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 1: and a half win teams.

832
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: You've got the.

833
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:26,000
Speaker 1: Dolphins, the Jaguars, the Panthers, the Jets, depending on what

834
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 1: the Patriots do, the Falcons, the Bengals. There are a

835
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 1: lot of really winnable games that you look at on

836
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: their schedule coming in. So that is a team that

837
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm looking at an over under

838
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 1: of one of them. That's really the one that I

839
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: like the most. Again, you mentioned their defense, so it

840
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 1: really is the key. There's one other that I like,

841
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: And I wonder what you think about this. How do

842
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 1: you feel about the Chiefs over under of eleven and

843
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 1: a half.

844
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 2: Well, it's a big number. You know, you got over

845
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: the hump last year you won the Super Bowl, so

846
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 2: you know, obviously there's there's kind of some difficulty with

847
00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 2: that twelve and four last year with the Mahomes injury.

848
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 2: You give them a lot of credit, you give them

849
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 2: full marks for that. I just the relative strength of

850
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 2: the division. I think everybody around them is a little

851
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: bit better this year. You've kind of got that sign

852
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 2: on your back. Now we know what Mahomes just did

853
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 2: last year, and I have a really hard time just

854
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 2: looking at that team and going, yeah, they're gonna go

855
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 2: twelve and four or better. Again, It's it's a big ask. Yeah.

856
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: I mean, if I were to pick another bet in

857
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: this division, it would be the under on the Chiefs

858
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: over under eleven and a half. And it's hard to

859
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: do that, and I don't know whether or not I

860
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 1: would really have the inteslino fortitude to make that pick,

861
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 1: just because betting against Patrick Mahomes even in a single

862
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 1: game is just devastating, and I'd hate to do it

863
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: over a full season. But look, I mean they've got

864
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: to go You mentioned it, right. Their division is tougher.

865
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: I don't love the Broncos, I don't love the Raiders.

866
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 1: I don't even love the Chargers, but you can easily

867
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,240
Speaker 1: see them going four and two. Let's say the Chiefs

868
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: against the division, and then they've got to go two balls.

869
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 1: They've got to go to Buffalo, and regardless of what

870
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: you think of Buffalo, that is a very, very difficult

871
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 1: place to play. They've got to go to New Orleans,

872
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: they've got to go to Tampa Bay with Brady and

873
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: that team. They have a lot of difficult games on

874
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 1: their schedule, and I know that Patrick Mahomes is capable

875
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:17,879
Speaker 1: of overcoming a lot of things that The defense played

876
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 1: a lot better down the stretch, and they're pretty much

877
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: intact offensively, you know, they've still got you know, they're

878
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 1: going to go with Damian Williams again, they added DeAndre Washington. Offensively,

879
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 1: they're pretty much intact. But you know, give it. That

880
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: is a huge number going on right now. The other

881
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 1: thing that we didn't talk about necessarily is, you know,

882
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 1: if the Ravens are as good as as sort of

883
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 1: we expect this, There's only going to be one by

884
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: this year, right So if the Ravens are, you know,

885
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 1: going ahead and easily going to have that buy, the

886
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 1: Chiefs may not have any need to push it down

887
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 1: the stretch, you know what I mean. Like it could

888
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 1: be something where you could see them saying if they

889
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: don't have that buy necessarily, they could take their foot

890
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 1: off the gas. That could work the other way too.

891
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 1: They could be going for the bye and trying to

892
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,799
Speaker 1: get there and so going full team all the way.

893
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: But it is some situation where if the Ravens are

894
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:04,919
Speaker 1: ahead of them, the Ravens beat them head to head,

895
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 1: and the Ravens have the tiebreaker and they're getting there.

896
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 1: The Chiefs could you could see at the end of

897
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 1: the season sort of take their foot off the gas

898
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: and just rest a little bit to try to get

899
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:13,280
Speaker 1: healthy as they go into the postseason.

900
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, oh no, I absolutely agree. That's definitely

901
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 2: a consideration you always want to think about, you know,

902
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 2: the situations for teams. And obviously it's easier in a

903
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 2: sport like baseball where you got the trade deadline and

904
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,680
Speaker 2: you know you kind of have an idea of where

905
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 2: they may be. But you're right, Kansas City may not

906
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 2: be pushing it as much late in the year because again,

907
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,600
Speaker 2: I mean, they played three extra games last year, so

908
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 2: less turnaround time, less recovery time is assuming the season

909
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 2: starts on time of course, right. You know, so this

910
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,400
Speaker 2: is also a defense that bent a ton early on

911
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 2: in the year. As you mentioned, they got a lot

912
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: better down the stretch, but they also got to pad

913
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 2: some numbers against an Oakland offense that wasn't great. They

914
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 2: were okay. They weren't great. They weren't prolific by any means.

915
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 2: The Patriots were way down Denver and the Bears. You know,

916
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 2: the Chargers moved it on them. The Texans moved it

917
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 2: on them in the play because they were kind of

918
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 2: playing that pre event defense type of thing. But I mean, again,

919
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,839
Speaker 2: this is a team that, you know, when they had

920
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 2: to step up in class and face decent offensive offenses

921
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: last year, the defense did struggle. They were a true

922
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: case of being very very good at playing the bully,

923
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,839
Speaker 2: and I don't think they have as many bully opportunities

924
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 2: this year.

925
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I'm inclined to agree. Again, it's not something

926
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 1: that I'm loving. There is one pick that I like

927
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: in this division, and that is the Chargers. As we

928
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 1: discuss remember by the way, I realized, I forgot to

929
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 1: mention it. I forgot exactly what it came out to.

930
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: But at some point somebody tweeted out what the Chargers

931
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 1: record would have been if you just reversed every single

932
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: score game. I don't know remember exactly what was. It

933
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: was probably eleven and five or something like that of

934
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 1: something ridiculous. And again, that's just something that speaks to

935
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 1: the strength of the team. The team, it's a very

936
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: good team. Rivers played terribly and they had a terrible

937
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 1: offensive line. Taylor's probably gonna make them better, and the

938
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 1: better offensive line is really gonna move into that. So

939
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: I think to improve three wins is not something that's

940
00:40:57,560 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 1: going to be crazy for them to do.

941
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 2: And real quickly. That's a really good point for all

942
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 2: the listeners out there. Look for record in close games,

943
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 2: because if you've got some outliers in that department, that's

944
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 2: generally something that year over year kind of regresses to

945
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: the mean a little bit. A good way to start

946
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 2: kind of narrowing your focus for some of these teams,

947
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 2: the ones that were say four and one or five

948
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: and zero or something like that in close games, like

949
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 2: a Seattle Seahawks type team for example, maybe that's something

950
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,400
Speaker 2: that you know, you want to scale back a little bit,

951
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 2: kind of gravitate towards the under or the over, as

952
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 2: the case may be.

953
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, in terms of the Chiefs, yeah, I just it

954
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: is something where I certainly wouldn't go with the over.

955
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:35,759
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not going them to get twelve wins.

956
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 1: And we talked about the extremes. But for me if

957
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: I had to go anywhere, it would be something with

958
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: the end. All right, that's gonna do it for today's show, Adam.

959
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 1: It was really really great to be able to catch

960
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 1: up and having you on again. Remind everybody where they

961
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: can find more of you and your work.

962
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 3: Please.

963
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, great to chat with you as well, but yeah,

964
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 2: you can find me over at bangbook dot com, at

965
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 2: Skating Tripods on Twitter. Still doing the Better's Box, my

966
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 2: MLB betting podcast twice a week, ramping up our draft

967
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 2: stuff over there with I mean, my god, the prop

968
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 2: catalog for the draft this year is just insane. There's

969
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 2: so much going on, as I know you guys are

970
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,479
Speaker 2: doing a lot over at Betting Pros for that as well.

971
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: But just trying to stay busy, man, trying not to

972
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: you know, fall too far down the hole here with

973
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,959
Speaker 2: everything that's going on. But I really appreciate you having

974
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 2: me on again, Dan, And you know, it's always great

975
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 2: to chat no matter what sport it is with you.

976
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 1: No, absolutely, And it's a shame we couldn't be talking

977
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 1: about baseball at this time and leading into it, but

978
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 1: you know, at least we do have the NFL and

979
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 1: the Draft coming up. So thanks again for coming on.

980
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 2: Absolutely man, thanks for having me all right.

981
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: Don't forget to add over to bettingpros dot com to

982
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: check out all the consensus lines, including our Draft day

983
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: props and NFL futures. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll be

984
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: back later this week to discuss the over unders for

985
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: the NFC win totals. I'll talk to you.

986
00:42:45,160 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 3: Then, money the mo I thin that the fact that

987
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 3: have not been as com