Speaker 1: Hi, Mark Da. So we're talking about vehicles a lot
Speaker 1: here a beIN late Absolutely, it's a fun thing to
Speaker 1: talk about. And every year we write the long term
Speaker 1: Electric Vehicle Outlooks, So we've been doing this for four years,
Speaker 1: which really spurs a lot of conversation around vehicles. And
Speaker 1: then there's a so what what does that mean for businesses?
Speaker 1: What opportunities? Where's the demand? HRE'SUS supply or the cost declines?
Speaker 1: And there's a really interesting report that we're going to
Speaker 1: talk about today which is the twenty nineteen Road Fuel Outlook.
Speaker 1: So we're going to be joined by David Doherty, who's
Speaker 1: actually an analyst that looks at oiled Man specifically, and
Speaker 1: he's going to tell us this. So what in the
Speaker 1: Electric Vehicle Outlook? I think one of the one of
Speaker 1: the biggest punch lines. So let's let's talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about vehicles. So, Mark, do you have car? I
Speaker 1: sadly do not, well, not anymore. I live in the
Speaker 1: middle of London and I frankly don't need one, but
Speaker 1: you know what, I want one? Yeah, if I were
Speaker 1: to buy one, I would buy an electric vehicle. But
Speaker 1: last night, actually I was just sitting there in my
Speaker 1: flat and my wife says, you know what, I want
Speaker 1: to buy a Classic Mini, like a Ni Mini, like
Speaker 1: a Maximni now in pink. So from having no car
Speaker 1: to wanting an electric vehicle to possibly going back and
Speaker 1: buying an old Classic that is not efficient by any means.
Speaker 1: So I've got a Mini, but I've got a Maxim
Speaker 1: Many and Many Country. It's a plug in hybrid, and
Speaker 1: so I'm loving it. First of all, I'm loving charging
Speaker 1: it and the parking. Do you feel like you're part
Speaker 1: of the future. I feel like I'm stepping into the future.
Speaker 1: I feel like the interface inside the car is cool,
Speaker 1: the outside of his cool, and plugging in my car
Speaker 1: is cool. You know. Instantly, we actually we had a
Speaker 1: roundtable event with some people working in financial services around
Speaker 1: the electric vehicle outlook, and there are all these really
Speaker 1: fascinating questions, and you know, we liaise with people across
Speaker 1: all parts of the BYE side, and you know, some
Speaker 1: people in vcs. We're looking at some really cool technology
Speaker 1: and I can't help getting swept up into is up
Speaker 1: in all of it, thinking we're stepping into the future.
Speaker 1: This is so incredibly cool. It is cool cool. We're
Speaker 1: talking about transitions, energy transition, the electric vehicle transition, inflection points, yes,
Speaker 1: peaks and all of this stuff to this report really real. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it brings it home. You know, not to give everything
Speaker 1: away because David Doherty is going to give you a
Speaker 1: much better view on all of this. But ultimately, there's
Speaker 1: a future for oil, and there's a there's a future
Speaker 1: for CEO two and electric vehicles. They're going to disrupt
Speaker 1: things and provide opportunities and force companies to think a
Speaker 1: little bit differently. But the future in some regards looks
Speaker 1: somewhat like today if does not provide investment and strategy advice.
Speaker 1: And you can hear the full disclaimer at the end
Speaker 1: of the show you're listening to switch it on. This
Speaker 1: is Dana Perkins and I'm Mark Taylor and we are
Speaker 1: joined here today by David Doherty. Welcome David, thank you,
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us today. Can you tell us what
Speaker 1: the one thing is that people should remember from this report?
Speaker 1: The one thing that people should take from this report is,
Speaker 1: regardless of how many electric vehicles, electric chooks, alternative cleaner
Speaker 1: fuel as we add, we still end up where we
Speaker 1: are today in terms of carbon emissions from road transport,
Speaker 1: I think that's a big one thing. I think people
Speaker 1: sit there and we have this assumption that if we
Speaker 1: have a lot more electric vehicles on the road, that's
Speaker 1: going to drive carbon emissions down and probably oil demand down.
Speaker 1: You're an oil demand analyst, So where are you seeing
Speaker 1: this really develop? Yeah? I mean the problem is not
Speaker 1: so much in the markets we tend to sit in
Speaker 1: the US, Europe and China, for instance. That's where we
Speaker 1: see e vs and alternatives really taking off. That's where
Speaker 1: fuel economy regulations are pretty stringent, pretty strict in Europe
Speaker 1: for instance. And the problem is in developing world where
Speaker 1: they take our second hand cars where they don't have
Speaker 1: mobility today, so they want mobility tomorrow, and that's the
Speaker 1: demand that comes onto that pile. So it's so quick
Speaker 1: this demand growth that regardless of what we're adding into
Speaker 1: this pile, we're not catching up with it. So we
Speaker 1: end up in twenty forty where we are today in
Speaker 1: terms of overall oil consumption from passenger cars and from
Speaker 1: commercial trucks. And that is really the crux of this
Speaker 1: whole thing. Add add these clean vehicles, but demand just
Speaker 1: outpaces everything. But a really report I came away with
Speaker 1: three things. Really to me, the whole thing said, there's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot more people. People want to get places,
Speaker 1: and people want more stuff. Right. Does that sound like
Speaker 1: too broader generalization or does that sound no? I think
Speaker 1: it's pretty fair. And I mean it's run a high
Speaker 1: horse sitting here in London, and we can say we
Speaker 1: need cleaner air, we need cleaner fuels, we need a
Speaker 1: nice electric vehicle. But getting from A to B is
Speaker 1: a necessity for some people that they don't mind what
Speaker 1: it pops at the back of that tail pipe. If
Speaker 1: you're talking about like a Western African nation, mobility is
Speaker 1: what they want. You have to be rich enough to
Speaker 1: really care about the air that you're breeding in if
Speaker 1: you can't get around, right, So you don't want to
Speaker 1: take that mobility away from somebody, and you want to
Speaker 1: give them the opportunity to get it. How do we
Speaker 1: do that in the cleanest way? That is really the
Speaker 1: question we haven't really answered. It's um, it's it's a
Speaker 1: bit of a double edged sword, right. People want this,
Speaker 1: They want more stuff, like you said, want more miles.
Speaker 1: They want to be able to do things that we
Speaker 1: can do, and we sit here saying, well, actually, you
Speaker 1: know the air is a bit dirty. I got a
Speaker 1: chest infection from that diesel, like the sut that comes
Speaker 1: out of the car. You have to be rich enough
Speaker 1: to care about that sort of thing. If you you know,
Speaker 1: we can get around. If you can't, you don't. You
Speaker 1: don't care if it's gasoline, if it's diesel, or it's
Speaker 1: the tank, you're going to move around well. So this
Speaker 1: is where governments come into play. And one of the
Speaker 1: things that you point out in this report is that
Speaker 1: fuel economy standards actually have a more meaningful impact in
Speaker 1: some parts of the vehicle chain than others. Can you
Speaker 1: extrapolate on that a little bit? So we talk a
Speaker 1: lot about different technologies, electric hydrogen, they don't really play
Speaker 1: a role until they past, at least not in big numbers.
Speaker 1: So how do you tackle that in the next ten
Speaker 1: years thirty? The easiest way is the fuel economy regulations.
Speaker 1: So the fuel economy is how much oil your car
Speaker 1: burns to travel one mile um And the way governments
Speaker 1: are regulated in Europe, US and China basically is say
Speaker 1: the average car that you sell has to have x
Speaker 1: of a fuel economy improvement by a certain date. So
Speaker 1: you could sell electric vehicles and one tank that just
Speaker 1: consumes tons and tons of reesel. Once the average works
Speaker 1: out at a certain amount, then you're good to go.
Speaker 1: And so that's where we're seeing electric vehicles being the
Speaker 1: answer at the moment to like the false wagons of
Speaker 1: the world. And we saw FEAT buying the credits that
Speaker 1: TSLT produced from their electric vehicles, so they can meet
Speaker 1: that hurdle. But fuel economy standards are are the one
Speaker 1: that really hit oil demand in the short term, and
Speaker 1: they're the easiest to put into place. They come at
Speaker 1: a cost to the auto manufacturer, which in turn gets
Speaker 1: passed on really to the to the client at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, me and you're driving our cars.
Speaker 1: But it's the quickest one that you can do, and
Speaker 1: if you look in terms of emissions, it's the first
Speaker 1: one that makes a dent in that in that big
Speaker 1: stack of emissions. So they're the easiest one to put
Speaker 1: into place if you're a government theoretically, but if you're
Speaker 1: an auto manufacturer, I would assume this is pretty tough. Um.
Speaker 1: You can hear from my accent, I'm American. We recently
Speaker 1: in the US decided to roll some of those back
Speaker 1: in the future. What does that potentially do to this forecast.
Speaker 1: Does it does it make it fluctuate wildly? Things change,
Speaker 1: It's a big risk. So if you were, like in
Speaker 1: the US, going to flatten your fuel economy, regulate some
Speaker 1: say so just say over those four years freeze you
Speaker 1: don't need to improve anything in the US alone, that
Speaker 1: would add about five thousand barrels per day half a
Speaker 1: million barrels per day. That's about the point five of
Speaker 1: total consumption as we stand back into that pool. So
Speaker 1: it's very sensitive to these things. And you have to
Speaker 1: think as well. If an electric vehicle comes onto the road,
Speaker 1: the way you've got to think about it is it's
Speaker 1: replacing what would have been an ice vehicle, combustion engine vehicle.
Speaker 1: So the efficiency of that combustion engine vehicle really matters
Speaker 1: when we're thinking about how much are these electric vehicles
Speaker 1: actually displacing in the world. You know, if it's a
Speaker 1: less efficient vehicle, that that ev displacement number looks pretty high. Really,
Speaker 1: it's still displacing the similar mile. It's just that mile
Speaker 1: consumes more oil um. So that is probably the biggest,
Speaker 1: the biggest swing in any of these forecasts. What what
Speaker 1: is that mile consuming? You know, how much gasoline, how
Speaker 1: much diesel, and people can change their mind. You know,
Speaker 1: Trump came in, we saw that they try to roll
Speaker 1: that back where they frozen for now, it's a little
Speaker 1: bit in limbo at the moment, Europe get more stringent.
Speaker 1: We saw during the week Japan released news that they
Speaker 1: were going to introduce a new one. These are people
Speaker 1: sitting in rooms making decisions. They're not people on a
Speaker 1: you know, a manufacturing line making the car. They have
Speaker 1: to react to these politicians and this policy that comes
Speaker 1: into play, but it is the most efficient, quickest way
Speaker 1: to do it. So is that the main I don't know,
Speaker 1: load bearing assumption in the report, so the government regulations
Speaker 1: or is it uptake from emerging markets or elsewhere? Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a bit of boat to be honest. So in
Speaker 1: the developing markets, I would say that the biggest dependency
Speaker 1: for this, what could really swing that number, would be
Speaker 1: the fuel economy. You assume that the car holds because
Speaker 1: we're looking at markets that are essentially flat, and actually
Speaker 1: what you're more concerned about now is what does uber
Speaker 1: do to that market? So if us three are going somewhere,
Speaker 1: what if we shared that car instead of all three
Speaker 1: of us driving our cars. That's three for one, right.
Speaker 1: That's very different to in Africa, where somebody might cycle
Speaker 1: or they might take a bus, and they're probably going
Speaker 1: the opposite direction. They want their own vehicle, they want
Speaker 1: their own space, and they want to move that male themselves.
Speaker 1: So it's two very different things. You have a bit
Speaker 1: of crossover in the likes of say India, where we
Speaker 1: think sharing where it's more normal there to share in
Speaker 1: the first place, will be um key to answering that
Speaker 1: demand and that mobility growth. So it's very different and
Speaker 1: very different regions, so you kind of can't put them
Speaker 1: all in the same box. But absolutely the developing world,
Speaker 1: where the population makes us look tiny, is really where
Speaker 1: the growth comes from. In both the trucks and passenger cars.
Speaker 1: We make an assumption in here around autonomous driving and
Speaker 1: that that is going to essentially reach a tipping point
Speaker 1: in the technology that doesn't quite exist yet. We're just
Speaker 1: assuming it's going to be there. So my kids, are
Speaker 1: they going to grow up they can have a driver's license.
Speaker 1: Are they all going to be and shared autonomously driven vehicles? Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's I mean, it's it's hard to know. It's one
Speaker 1: of those things where you can make a best gas
Speaker 1: at But what actually happens we will, you know, have
Speaker 1: to wait and see. But that robot taxi is, so
Speaker 1: to speak, which is quite a terrifying where are being
Speaker 1: tested out. We're seeing them on the roads in California.
Speaker 1: But they are on the roads in California, which even
Speaker 1: from London seems a mile away. You know, you're you're
Speaker 1: not quite connected to how that works. And can I
Speaker 1: see myself driving around with a robot actually behind the wheel?
Speaker 1: I don't know. You've got to change mentalities, and I
Speaker 1: would like to think I'm probably on the forefront of
Speaker 1: being okay with these things, but not proven in my head.
Speaker 1: But in our forecast in the later part of the ties, yeah,
Speaker 1: we see that playing more of a role. The interesting
Speaker 1: part of that is by that time, the more you drive,
Speaker 1: the cheaper it is to drive on an electric mile.
Speaker 1: So they will all be electric. They might use more electricity,
Speaker 1: but they will be electric. They won't be running off
Speaker 1: of diesel. You know, your robot is not going to
Speaker 1: pull into a station and refill their engine. You know
Speaker 1: it's but isn't the same thing for the right sharing companies?
Speaker 1: I saw in the report it said that you're still
Speaker 1: going to have ice vehicles like scuber and lift. I
Speaker 1: didn't quite believe that. Yeah, for sure, I mean the
Speaker 1: logic makes sense to shift to electric. So basically, the
Speaker 1: more you drive, the more miles you cover, the better
Speaker 1: the payback period is what I think. What's really interesting
Speaker 1: in the shared hailed services is in the short term
Speaker 1: it adds into the pile. So we've seen London, New
Speaker 1: York where they're really actually now worried about congestion because
Speaker 1: maybe on a night out I would have previously got
Speaker 1: a bus home or the night to I am not
Speaker 1: getting that anymore. I'm most definitely getting an uber And
Speaker 1: if you really want to skimp on pennies, you'll do
Speaker 1: an uber pool. Like you know, it's it's totally different
Speaker 1: way of thinking. That adds back into consumption. So our
Speaker 1: forecast builds that into the short term, actually adds into
Speaker 1: the oil pool. Further out it dips off. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 1: But then you shift into different parts of the world
Speaker 1: where infrastructure can become a problem or actually that competitiveness,
Speaker 1: the price competitiveness becomes an issue because ice vehicles and
Speaker 1: certain regions are incredibly cheap. India, for instance, electric vehicles
Speaker 1: really struggle to compete because cars there are incredibly cheap.
Speaker 1: So you're you're not you know, you've moved the goalposts
Speaker 1: in different markets. You're looking at in a very different way. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: So in here we say that peak demand for oil
Speaker 1: for light and heavy duty vehicles peaks in. But I
Speaker 1: looked at the chart and it didn't look very peaky.
Speaker 1: If you will, It looks like the sort of you know,
Speaker 1: mountain I want to climb when I go on a
Speaker 1: country walk on the weekend. So how far have we
Speaker 1: gone out into the future and do we see a
Speaker 1: drop off at any time? Or is it really looking
Speaker 1: like business as usual into the future as far as
Speaker 1: we can tell, well, the story diverges massively between passenger
Speaker 1: cars and heavy duty vehicles. Right, So if you're looking
Speaker 1: at me and you driving around, we have alternative options.
Speaker 1: We've got different drive trains coming along. We've got different
Speaker 1: solutions like uber, like lift, like that robot cab that
Speaker 1: might bring us around. When it comes to trucks, you're
Speaker 1: in a very different field of things. You're you're looking
Speaker 1: at how heavy is that truck? A truck works off
Speaker 1: of putting things in the back and transporting them. If
Speaker 1: you've got a huge battery, you can't put more things
Speaker 1: on the back of it because you're regulated into how
Speaker 1: heavy your truck can be. In general, if you're in
Speaker 1: a city center, however, you may not allowd be using
Speaker 1: be allowed to use diesel anymore. You can only use
Speaker 1: electric or something clean. So the trucking market itself is
Speaker 1: just a whole other things, six or seven different markets.
Speaker 1: You have to think about them in a very different way.
Speaker 1: Passenger cars is easy that peaks pretty early I think
Speaker 1: in our forecast, and comes off afterwards. It doesn't totally
Speaker 1: nos dive, but the whole time, trucks continue to grow
Speaker 1: until twenty thirty five and slow down afterwards, but it's
Speaker 1: a very minimal slowdown, which is what causes that sort
Speaker 1: of flattening out. Like you said, the mountain you want
Speaker 1: to climb in the weekend sort of thing. So you
Speaker 1: can't look at them. You look at them together, but
Speaker 1: it's difficult to really understand the story unless you really
Speaker 1: pick them apart and look at what's happening in each
Speaker 1: of them. And our house view tends not to favor hybrids,
Speaker 1: but it seems like there's really a place for hybrids
Speaker 1: or range extenders or plug ins, or something that's halfway
Speaker 1: between in this truck's space. Yeah, I mean hybrids in
Speaker 1: general are expensive to make. So if you think about it,
Speaker 1: you've got the expensive parts of an ice engine mixed
Speaker 1: with the expensive parts of an electric and I mean
Speaker 1: you're putting two expensive things. You don't get anything that's
Speaker 1: any cheaper. However, in the trucking space, it comes down
Speaker 1: to function. Yet again, you might not have the infrastructure
Speaker 1: to refuel if you've got a truck doesn't have a
Speaker 1: set route. Let's say you might be going from Edinburgh
Speaker 1: to London one day, you could be going from the
Speaker 1: middle of Poland to the middle of German You another day.
Speaker 1: So you need to know where infrastructure lies in advance.
Speaker 1: So that's where things like range extenders you could think
Speaker 1: of as a sort of a plug in hybrid, come
Speaker 1: into play. You can drive some of your miles electric,
Speaker 1: but ultimately it's the diesel that recharges that engine and
Speaker 1: then when it's recharge switches to that So there is
Speaker 1: a role to play, but it's not as simple as
Speaker 1: thinking of a plug in hybrid electric vehicle versus you know,
Speaker 1: a battery electric vehicle. It's a it's a completely different
Speaker 1: way of thinking about it. It's more through function for
Speaker 1: trucks than it is basic costs. You know, a car
Speaker 1: is a car, so to speak. You can drive longer
Speaker 1: or shorter. You tend to drive the same way. Trucks.
Speaker 1: You've got weight limitations, some technologies you can turn the
Speaker 1: corner for correctly. If you have, you know, a big
Speaker 1: fuel cell stack in the back of your truck, you
Speaker 1: can you can only angle so much around corners. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of things you have to think about when
Speaker 1: you're looking at the trucking market that before we did
Speaker 1: this research, I never ever thought about. So with these
Speaker 1: fuels that we're still going to see demand for in
Speaker 1: the future, can you break them down a little bit
Speaker 1: by gasoline and diesel because those have two very different
Speaker 1: demand profiles, don't they. Yeah, So the passenger car market
Speaker 1: is almost exclusively asoline now and we see diesel in Europe.
Speaker 1: Diesel has really had a hard time recently. There's been
Speaker 1: the Volkswagen scandal, it's fallen out of favor. You could
Speaker 1: clean diesel up now and it's still not going to
Speaker 1: sell the way it has. We've seen the likes of
Speaker 1: Renault abandoned the technology and smaller vehicles. It's just too
Speaker 1: expensive to make smaller cars or diesels now because the
Speaker 1: margins or something, so they're shifting away from that. So
Speaker 1: when Europe is sort of the only place using diesel,
Speaker 1: it makes sense for them to sort of conform to
Speaker 1: the rest of the world. And we're seeing lots of
Speaker 1: other uses for diesel trucking which is growing, so in
Speaker 1: theory the price of diesels should go up, but also
Speaker 1: shipping where they're shifting towards a cleaner fuel such as diesel. Right,
Speaker 1: So the passenger car segment is a gasoline market, which
Speaker 1: is why that peaks before diesel, and diesel is predominantly
Speaker 1: used in trucks. The only place you see gasoline and
Speaker 1: trucks is sort of the lighter vans, so you know,
Speaker 1: Amazon delivery services, they may run off of gasoline, particularly
Speaker 1: in the US in Europe pretends to be diesel, but
Speaker 1: the diesel profile is much stronger and more resilient in
Speaker 1: terms of, you know, susceptible to disruption than gasoline, so
Speaker 1: we see diesel peaking into any early five. Benefit of that, however,
Speaker 1: is diesel is much more efficient on a mile paramount
Speaker 1: basis than than gasoline. So it's carbon profile is I
Speaker 1: would say favorable to gasoline. You just need to manage
Speaker 1: the NOx and socks, the emissions and the air quality
Speaker 1: issues that come from back of it. Have you looked
Speaker 1: at what this means for I don't know. Strategies for
Speaker 1: oil companies say yeah, they have to think about how
Speaker 1: they approach is a very different way in future. At
Speaker 1: the moment, we have a huge refining system in the
Speaker 1: U S which produces an awful lot of gasoline, a
Speaker 1: big refining system in Europe which produces an awful lot
Speaker 1: of diesel, and that suits it at the moment. So
Speaker 1: Europe consumes diesel in its passenger cars, also in its trucks.
Speaker 1: The U S consumes a lot of gasoline in its
Speaker 1: cars right. What they have extra they export to Latin
Speaker 1: America or to Africa. Europe exports gasoline to Latin America
Speaker 1: or to West Africa. We're seeing now big refining projects
Speaker 1: coming into the places that we've always used to send
Speaker 1: our excess capacity, to our excess products to. So West Africa,
Speaker 1: for instance, they've got a huge refinery that don go
Speaker 1: to refinery that's being built to satisfy that gasoline demand.
Speaker 1: That is just one example of what we're seeing happening.
Speaker 1: China is doing the same, Southeast Asia, Middle East. These
Speaker 1: developing markets or developing markets quote unquote are satisfying their
Speaker 1: own demand now satisfying their own supply. So if you're
Speaker 1: pumping out aasoline in Europe or the US, you now
Speaker 1: have to compete when you're trying to price that into
Speaker 1: those markets, So your whole strategy has to change. The
Speaker 1: one thing I would say is the oil market is
Speaker 1: totally used to this. You know, we have big shifts
Speaker 1: and standards. We've always had big shifts in inspecs, and
Speaker 1: they're not afraid to move things around. We've got the
Speaker 1: I m O coming up next year, for instance. We'll
Speaker 1: see products shift around. We've already seen it happen before
Speaker 1: when diesel spects come into play. Um of the industry.
Speaker 1: It's incredibly flexible and I don't think people give it
Speaker 1: a lot of credit and how they can adapt to
Speaker 1: these changing markets. So in all this, who do I
Speaker 1: want to be? Do I want to be a truck
Speaker 1: and company in India? Do I want to be an
Speaker 1: oil company? Do I want to be an automo? Manufacturer.
Speaker 1: Who do I want to be. Yeah, that's quite a
Speaker 1: tough question. Everybody, I think can take value out of
Speaker 1: this in a certain way. Where I think the biggest
Speaker 1: opening up in terms of value will be is auto
Speaker 1: manufacturers or truck manufacturers. Particularly if you think of a
Speaker 1: truck and company. Now, they sell their truck to somebody
Speaker 1: who's going to use it, and that person who's going
Speaker 1: to use it parks it fills it with diesel every day, right, Okay,
Speaker 1: so they have like an ongoing cost for the lifetime
Speaker 1: of that truck. If I am a truck manufacturer, I
Speaker 1: want to sell them something that might be more expensive
Speaker 1: today but with cheaper running costs. So as a truck manufacturer,
Speaker 1: I have locked in more of that value that I'm
Speaker 1: going to get from that person. So that's basically shifting
Speaker 1: from the oil value chain into the auto manufacturing chain.
Speaker 1: But you have that higher upfront cost. Right. Trucking companies
Speaker 1: are I wouldn't say cash rich, right. They don't have
Speaker 1: deep pockets credits probably an issue. They tend to be
Speaker 1: quite small. The average size is something like ten in
Speaker 1: their fleet. That's pretty small. You're not talking about, you know,
Speaker 1: piano ferries, the very different landscape. But with some smart instruments,
Speaker 1: which we've already in the electric bus market for instance,
Speaker 1: you can basically enter into swaps. So you may have
Speaker 1: that truck manufacturer enters into a swap with its customer,
Speaker 1: so basically they pay a lower upfront costs, but then
Speaker 1: what they would have spent on diesel they give to
Speaker 1: the auto manufacture across the lifetime of that truck. That
Speaker 1: to me is really where it gets interesting, and that's
Speaker 1: where banks will will, you know, eventually get involved that
Speaker 1: the balance sheet of automakers may not necessarily need to
Speaker 1: be used, but they're already banks. False wagon have a bank,
Speaker 1: so they're set up to think about this, and that
Speaker 1: would be an obvious, an obvious way for me to
Speaker 1: make money if I was a truckmaker. And oil companies
Speaker 1: I think will make money regardless because they match up
Speaker 1: supply with demand. They own the ships in between. Um yeah,
Speaker 1: like I said, the demand profile changes in terms of location,
Speaker 1: the amount is still there. They'll just compete and the
Speaker 1: bigger guys will be much better at place to compete
Speaker 1: than the smaller guys. What's next to this line of research?
Speaker 1: We want to have a look at bio fuels. So
Speaker 1: what we've discovered from this one is regardless of how
Speaker 1: fast you run, how many electric vehicles or alternative fuels
Speaker 1: you put into that system, we can't get to cleaning
Speaker 1: up the road fuel sector. So what could you do
Speaker 1: otherwise what we currently have? So we're gonna look at
Speaker 1: bio fuels for one, is a clean wave of approaching it,
Speaker 1: and also how you may be able to change the
Speaker 1: speck of what we currently use. So gasoline at the
Speaker 1: moment we have ninety two run normally maybe ninety five.
Speaker 1: You can clean up gasoline so to speak. To make
Speaker 1: it into Layman's terms, is there a renaissance coming from biofuels.
Speaker 1: There has to be something, So we're gonna check it out. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not promising anything. We haven't started it yet. But
Speaker 1: then there will be a role for sure. Okay, and
Speaker 1: there already is a role in the US where it's
Speaker 1: maybe ten percent of consumption. Ye, Brazil is like twenty
Speaker 1: seven percent, China is mandated twenty I think, or maybe
Speaker 1: ten percent from Yeah, there'll be a role. What kind
Speaker 1: of bio fuels TBD David, thanks for joining us, no problem,
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