1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:03,840 Speaker 1: Hi, Mark Da. So we're talking about vehicles a lot 2 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: here a beIN late Absolutely, it's a fun thing to 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: talk about. And every year we write the long term 4 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Electric Vehicle Outlooks, So we've been doing this for four years, 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: which really spurs a lot of conversation around vehicles. And 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: then there's a so what what does that mean for businesses? 7 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 1: What opportunities? Where's the demand? HRE'SUS supply or the cost declines? 8 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: And there's a really interesting report that we're going to 9 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: talk about today which is the twenty nineteen Road Fuel Outlook. 10 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: So we're going to be joined by David Doherty, who's 11 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: actually an analyst that looks at oiled Man specifically, and 12 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: he's going to tell us this. So what in the 13 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: Electric Vehicle Outlook? I think one of the one of 14 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: the biggest punch lines. So let's let's talk a little 15 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: bit about vehicles. So, Mark, do you have car? I 16 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 1: sadly do not, well, not anymore. I live in the 17 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: middle of London and I frankly don't need one, but 18 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 1: you know what, I want one? Yeah, if I were 19 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: to buy one, I would buy an electric vehicle. But 20 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: last night, actually I was just sitting there in my 21 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: flat and my wife says, you know what, I want 22 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: to buy a Classic Mini, like a Ni Mini, like 23 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: a Maximni now in pink. So from having no car 24 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: to wanting an electric vehicle to possibly going back and 25 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: buying an old Classic that is not efficient by any means. 26 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: So I've got a Mini, but I've got a Maxim 27 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: Many and Many Country. It's a plug in hybrid, and 28 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: so I'm loving it. First of all, I'm loving charging 29 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: it and the parking. Do you feel like you're part 30 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: of the future. I feel like I'm stepping into the future. 31 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: I feel like the interface inside the car is cool, 32 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 1: the outside of his cool, and plugging in my car 33 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: is cool. You know. Instantly, we actually we had a 34 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 1: roundtable event with some people working in financial services around 35 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 1: the electric vehicle outlook, and there are all these really 36 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: fascinating questions, and you know, we liaise with people across 37 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: all parts of the BYE side, and you know, some 38 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: people in vcs. We're looking at some really cool technology 39 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: and I can't help getting swept up into is up 40 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: in all of it, thinking we're stepping into the future. 41 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: This is so incredibly cool. It is cool cool. We're 42 00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: talking about transitions, energy transition, the electric vehicle transition, inflection points, yes, 43 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 1: peaks and all of this stuff to this report really real. Yeah, 44 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:13,080 Speaker 1: it brings it home. You know, not to give everything 45 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: away because David Doherty is going to give you a 46 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: much better view on all of this. But ultimately, there's 47 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 1: a future for oil, and there's a there's a future 48 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: for CEO two and electric vehicles. They're going to disrupt 49 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 1: things and provide opportunities and force companies to think a 50 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: little bit differently. But the future in some regards looks 51 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,399 Speaker 1: somewhat like today if does not provide investment and strategy advice. 52 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: And you can hear the full disclaimer at the end 53 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,519 Speaker 1: of the show you're listening to switch it on. This 54 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: is Dana Perkins and I'm Mark Taylor and we are 55 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 1: joined here today by David Doherty. Welcome David, thank you, 56 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 1: thanks for joining us today. Can you tell us what 57 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: the one thing is that people should remember from this report? 58 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: The one thing that people should take from this report is, 59 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: regardless of how many electric vehicles, electric chooks, alternative cleaner 60 00:02:57,760 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: fuel as we add, we still end up where we 61 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: are today in terms of carbon emissions from road transport, 62 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: I think that's a big one thing. I think people 63 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: sit there and we have this assumption that if we 64 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: have a lot more electric vehicles on the road, that's 65 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: going to drive carbon emissions down and probably oil demand down. 66 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:19,519 Speaker 1: You're an oil demand analyst, So where are you seeing 67 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: this really develop? Yeah? I mean the problem is not 68 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: so much in the markets we tend to sit in 69 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 1: the US, Europe and China, for instance. That's where we 70 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 1: see e vs and alternatives really taking off. That's where 71 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: fuel economy regulations are pretty stringent, pretty strict in Europe 72 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: for instance. And the problem is in developing world where 73 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: they take our second hand cars where they don't have 74 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: mobility today, so they want mobility tomorrow, and that's the 75 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: demand that comes onto that pile. So it's so quick 76 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: this demand growth that regardless of what we're adding into 77 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: this pile, we're not catching up with it. So we 78 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 1: end up in twenty forty where we are today in 79 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: terms of overall oil consumption from passenger cars and from 80 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: commercial trucks. And that is really the crux of this 81 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: whole thing. Add add these clean vehicles, but demand just 82 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: outpaces everything. But a really report I came away with 83 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: three things. Really to me, the whole thing said, there's 84 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: gonna be a lot more people. People want to get places, 85 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: and people want more stuff. Right. Does that sound like 86 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: too broader generalization or does that sound no? I think 87 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: it's pretty fair. And I mean it's run a high 88 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: horse sitting here in London, and we can say we 89 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: need cleaner air, we need cleaner fuels, we need a 90 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 1: nice electric vehicle. But getting from A to B is 91 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: a necessity for some people that they don't mind what 92 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: it pops at the back of that tail pipe. If 93 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: you're talking about like a Western African nation, mobility is 94 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 1: what they want. You have to be rich enough to 95 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: really care about the air that you're breeding in if 96 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:37,640 Speaker 1: you can't get around, right, So you don't want to 97 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: take that mobility away from somebody, and you want to 98 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 1: give them the opportunity to get it. How do we 99 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: do that in the cleanest way? That is really the 100 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: question we haven't really answered. It's um, it's it's a 101 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: bit of a double edged sword, right. People want this, 102 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: They want more stuff, like you said, want more miles. 103 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: They want to be able to do things that we 104 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: can do, and we sit here saying, well, actually, you 105 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: know the air is a bit dirty. I got a 106 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: chest infection from that diesel, like the sut that comes 107 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: out of the car. You have to be rich enough 108 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: to care about that sort of thing. If you you know, 109 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: we can get around. If you can't, you don't. You 110 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: don't care if it's gasoline, if it's diesel, or it's 111 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: the tank, you're going to move around well. So this 112 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: is where governments come into play. And one of the 113 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 1: things that you point out in this report is that 114 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: fuel economy standards actually have a more meaningful impact in 115 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: some parts of the vehicle chain than others. Can you 116 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: extrapolate on that a little bit? So we talk a 117 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 1: lot about different technologies, electric hydrogen, they don't really play 118 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 1: a role until they past, at least not in big numbers. 119 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: So how do you tackle that in the next ten 120 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: years thirty? The easiest way is the fuel economy regulations. 121 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: So the fuel economy is how much oil your car 122 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,239 Speaker 1: burns to travel one mile um And the way governments 123 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: are regulated in Europe, US and China basically is say 124 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: the average car that you sell has to have x 125 00:05:52,120 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: of a fuel economy improvement by a certain date. So 126 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: you could sell electric vehicles and one tank that just 127 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 1: consumes tons and tons of reesel. Once the average works 128 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: out at a certain amount, then you're good to go. 129 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: And so that's where we're seeing electric vehicles being the 130 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: answer at the moment to like the false wagons of 131 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: the world. And we saw FEAT buying the credits that 132 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: TSLT produced from their electric vehicles, so they can meet 133 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 1: that hurdle. But fuel economy standards are are the one 134 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 1: that really hit oil demand in the short term, and 135 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: they're the easiest to put into place. They come at 136 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: a cost to the auto manufacturer, which in turn gets 137 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: passed on really to the to the client at the 138 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: end of the day, me and you're driving our cars. 139 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: But it's the quickest one that you can do, and 140 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 1: if you look in terms of emissions, it's the first 141 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 1: one that makes a dent in that in that big 142 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: stack of emissions. So they're the easiest one to put 143 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: into place if you're a government theoretically, but if you're 144 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: an auto manufacturer, I would assume this is pretty tough. Um. 145 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 1: You can hear from my accent, I'm American. We recently 146 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: in the US decided to roll some of those back 147 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 1: in the future. What does that potentially do to this forecast. 148 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: Does it does it make it fluctuate wildly? Things change, 149 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: It's a big risk. So if you were, like in 150 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: the US, going to flatten your fuel economy, regulate some 151 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: say so just say over those four years freeze you 152 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: don't need to improve anything in the US alone, that 153 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: would add about five thousand barrels per day half a 154 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: million barrels per day. That's about the point five of 155 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: total consumption as we stand back into that pool. So 156 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: it's very sensitive to these things. And you have to 157 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 1: think as well. If an electric vehicle comes onto the road, 158 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 1: the way you've got to think about it is it's 159 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: replacing what would have been an ice vehicle, combustion engine vehicle. 160 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: So the efficiency of that combustion engine vehicle really matters 161 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: when we're thinking about how much are these electric vehicles 162 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: actually displacing in the world. You know, if it's a 163 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: less efficient vehicle, that that ev displacement number looks pretty high. Really, 164 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: it's still displacing the similar mile. It's just that mile 165 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: consumes more oil um. So that is probably the biggest, 166 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: the biggest swing in any of these forecasts. What what 167 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: is that mile consuming? You know, how much gasoline, how 168 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: much diesel, and people can change their mind. You know, 169 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: Trump came in, we saw that they try to roll 170 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: that back where they frozen for now, it's a little 171 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: bit in limbo at the moment, Europe get more stringent. 172 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: We saw during the week Japan released news that they 173 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: were going to introduce a new one. These are people 174 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: sitting in rooms making decisions. They're not people on a 175 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: you know, a manufacturing line making the car. They have 176 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: to react to these politicians and this policy that comes 177 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: into play, but it is the most efficient, quickest way 178 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: to do it. So is that the main I don't know, 179 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: load bearing assumption in the report, so the government regulations 180 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: or is it uptake from emerging markets or elsewhere? Yeah, 181 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: it's a bit of boat to be honest. So in 182 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: the developing markets, I would say that the biggest dependency 183 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 1: for this, what could really swing that number, would be 184 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: the fuel economy. You assume that the car holds because 185 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 1: we're looking at markets that are essentially flat, and actually 186 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: what you're more concerned about now is what does uber 187 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: do to that market? So if us three are going somewhere, 188 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: what if we shared that car instead of all three 189 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: of us driving our cars. That's three for one, right. 190 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: That's very different to in Africa, where somebody might cycle 191 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: or they might take a bus, and they're probably going 192 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 1: the opposite direction. They want their own vehicle, they want 193 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: their own space, and they want to move that male themselves. 194 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: So it's two very different things. You have a bit 195 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 1: of crossover in the likes of say India, where we 196 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: think sharing where it's more normal there to share in 197 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,199 Speaker 1: the first place, will be um key to answering that 198 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: demand and that mobility growth. So it's very different and 199 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: very different regions, so you kind of can't put them 200 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: all in the same box. But absolutely the developing world, 201 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: where the population makes us look tiny, is really where 202 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: the growth comes from. In both the trucks and passenger cars. 203 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: We make an assumption in here around autonomous driving and 204 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: that that is going to essentially reach a tipping point 205 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: in the technology that doesn't quite exist yet. We're just 206 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 1: assuming it's going to be there. So my kids, are 207 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:38,559 Speaker 1: they going to grow up they can have a driver's license. 208 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: Are they all going to be and shared autonomously driven vehicles? Yeah, 209 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: it's I mean, it's it's hard to know. It's one 210 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 1: of those things where you can make a best gas 211 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: at But what actually happens we will, you know, have 212 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: to wait and see. But that robot taxi is, so 213 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: to speak, which is quite a terrifying where are being 214 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: tested out. We're seeing them on the roads in California. 215 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 1: But they are on the roads in California, which even 216 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: from London seems a mile away. You know, you're you're 217 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 1: not quite connected to how that works. And can I 218 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: see myself driving around with a robot actually behind the wheel? 219 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: I don't know. You've got to change mentalities, and I 220 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: would like to think I'm probably on the forefront of 221 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: being okay with these things, but not proven in my head. 222 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: But in our forecast in the later part of the ties, yeah, 223 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 1: we see that playing more of a role. The interesting 224 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: part of that is by that time, the more you drive, 225 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: the cheaper it is to drive on an electric mile. 226 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: So they will all be electric. They might use more electricity, 227 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: but they will be electric. They won't be running off 228 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: of diesel. You know, your robot is not going to 229 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: pull into a station and refill their engine. You know 230 00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 1: it's but isn't the same thing for the right sharing companies? 231 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: I saw in the report it said that you're still 232 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: going to have ice vehicles like scuber and lift. I 233 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 1: didn't quite believe that. Yeah, for sure, I mean the 234 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 1: logic makes sense to shift to electric. So basically, the 235 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: more you drive, the more miles you cover, the better 236 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: the payback period is what I think. What's really interesting 237 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: in the shared hailed services is in the short term 238 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: it adds into the pile. So we've seen London, New 239 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: York where they're really actually now worried about congestion because 240 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: maybe on a night out I would have previously got 241 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 1: a bus home or the night to I am not 242 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 1: getting that anymore. I'm most definitely getting an uber And 243 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: if you really want to skimp on pennies, you'll do 244 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: an uber pool. Like you know, it's it's totally different 245 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,200 Speaker 1: way of thinking. That adds back into consumption. So our 246 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: forecast builds that into the short term, actually adds into 247 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 1: the oil pool. Further out it dips off. Yeah, absolutely, 248 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: But then you shift into different parts of the world 249 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 1: where infrastructure can become a problem or actually that competitiveness, 250 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,679 Speaker 1: the price competitiveness becomes an issue because ice vehicles and 251 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: certain regions are incredibly cheap. India, for instance, electric vehicles 252 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 1: really struggle to compete because cars there are incredibly cheap. 253 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: So you're you're not you know, you've moved the goalposts 254 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: in different markets. You're looking at in a very different way. Yeah, okay, 255 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 1: So in here we say that peak demand for oil 256 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:47,719 Speaker 1: for light and heavy duty vehicles peaks in. But I 257 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: looked at the chart and it didn't look very peaky. 258 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: If you will, It looks like the sort of you know, 259 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: mountain I want to climb when I go on a 260 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: country walk on the weekend. So how far have we 261 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:58,719 Speaker 1: gone out into the future and do we see a 262 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:00,839 Speaker 1: drop off at any time? Or is it really looking 263 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: like business as usual into the future as far as 264 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: we can tell, well, the story diverges massively between passenger 265 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: cars and heavy duty vehicles. Right, So if you're looking 266 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: at me and you driving around, we have alternative options. 267 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: We've got different drive trains coming along. We've got different 268 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: solutions like uber, like lift, like that robot cab that 269 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: might bring us around. When it comes to trucks, you're 270 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 1: in a very different field of things. You're you're looking 271 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,959 Speaker 1: at how heavy is that truck? A truck works off 272 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: of putting things in the back and transporting them. If 273 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: you've got a huge battery, you can't put more things 274 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: on the back of it because you're regulated into how 275 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: heavy your truck can be. In general, if you're in 276 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: a city center, however, you may not allowd be using 277 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 1: be allowed to use diesel anymore. You can only use 278 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: electric or something clean. So the trucking market itself is 279 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: just a whole other things, six or seven different markets. 280 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: You have to think about them in a very different way. 281 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 1: Passenger cars is easy that peaks pretty early I think 282 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,720 Speaker 1: in our forecast, and comes off afterwards. It doesn't totally 283 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 1: nos dive, but the whole time, trucks continue to grow 284 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 1: until twenty thirty five and slow down afterwards, but it's 285 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 1: a very minimal slowdown, which is what causes that sort 286 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 1: of flattening out. Like you said, the mountain you want 287 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: to climb in the weekend sort of thing. So you 288 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,319 Speaker 1: can't look at them. You look at them together, but 289 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: it's difficult to really understand the story unless you really 290 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 1: pick them apart and look at what's happening in each 291 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: of them. And our house view tends not to favor hybrids, 292 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 1: but it seems like there's really a place for hybrids 293 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: or range extenders or plug ins, or something that's halfway 294 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: between in this truck's space. Yeah, I mean hybrids in 295 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: general are expensive to make. So if you think about it, 296 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,680 Speaker 1: you've got the expensive parts of an ice engine mixed 297 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: with the expensive parts of an electric and I mean 298 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: you're putting two expensive things. You don't get anything that's 299 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,719 Speaker 1: any cheaper. However, in the trucking space, it comes down 300 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: to function. Yet again, you might not have the infrastructure 301 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,959 Speaker 1: to refuel if you've got a truck doesn't have a 302 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: set route. Let's say you might be going from Edinburgh 303 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: to London one day, you could be going from the 304 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: middle of Poland to the middle of German You another day. 305 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: So you need to know where infrastructure lies in advance. 306 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: So that's where things like range extenders you could think 307 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: of as a sort of a plug in hybrid, come 308 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: into play. You can drive some of your miles electric, 309 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,199 Speaker 1: but ultimately it's the diesel that recharges that engine and 310 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: then when it's recharge switches to that So there is 311 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: a role to play, but it's not as simple as 312 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 1: thinking of a plug in hybrid electric vehicle versus you know, 313 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 1: a battery electric vehicle. It's a it's a completely different 314 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: way of thinking about it. It's more through function for 315 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: trucks than it is basic costs. You know, a car 316 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 1: is a car, so to speak. You can drive longer 317 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: or shorter. You tend to drive the same way. Trucks. 318 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 1: You've got weight limitations, some technologies you can turn the 319 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: corner for correctly. If you have, you know, a big 320 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 1: fuel cell stack in the back of your truck, you 321 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: can you can only angle so much around corners. There's 322 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: a lot of things you have to think about when 323 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: you're looking at the trucking market that before we did 324 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: this research, I never ever thought about. So with these 325 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 1: fuels that we're still going to see demand for in 326 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: the future, can you break them down a little bit 327 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 1: by gasoline and diesel because those have two very different 328 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: demand profiles, don't they. Yeah, So the passenger car market 329 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: is almost exclusively asoline now and we see diesel in Europe. 330 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 1: Diesel has really had a hard time recently. There's been 331 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: the Volkswagen scandal, it's fallen out of favor. You could 332 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: clean diesel up now and it's still not going to 333 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: sell the way it has. We've seen the likes of 334 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: Renault abandoned the technology and smaller vehicles. It's just too 335 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: expensive to make smaller cars or diesels now because the 336 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: margins or something, so they're shifting away from that. So 337 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: when Europe is sort of the only place using diesel, 338 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: it makes sense for them to sort of conform to 339 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. And we're seeing lots of 340 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: other uses for diesel trucking which is growing, so in 341 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: theory the price of diesels should go up, but also 342 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: shipping where they're shifting towards a cleaner fuel such as diesel. Right, 343 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 1: So the passenger car segment is a gasoline market, which 344 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: is why that peaks before diesel, and diesel is predominantly 345 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 1: used in trucks. The only place you see gasoline and 346 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: trucks is sort of the lighter vans, so you know, 347 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: Amazon delivery services, they may run off of gasoline, particularly 348 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 1: in the US in Europe pretends to be diesel, but 349 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: the diesel profile is much stronger and more resilient in 350 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: terms of, you know, susceptible to disruption than gasoline, so 351 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: we see diesel peaking into any early five. Benefit of that, however, 352 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: is diesel is much more efficient on a mile paramount 353 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: basis than than gasoline. So it's carbon profile is I 354 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: would say favorable to gasoline. You just need to manage 355 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: the NOx and socks, the emissions and the air quality 356 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: issues that come from back of it. Have you looked 357 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: at what this means for I don't know. Strategies for 358 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: oil companies say yeah, they have to think about how 359 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: they approach is a very different way in future. At 360 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: the moment, we have a huge refining system in the 361 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: U S which produces an awful lot of gasoline, a 362 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: big refining system in Europe which produces an awful lot 363 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: of diesel, and that suits it at the moment. So 364 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: Europe consumes diesel in its passenger cars, also in its trucks. 365 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: The U S consumes a lot of gasoline in its 366 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: cars right. What they have extra they export to Latin 367 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: America or to Africa. Europe exports gasoline to Latin America 368 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: or to West Africa. We're seeing now big refining projects 369 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: coming into the places that we've always used to send 370 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: our excess capacity, to our excess products to. So West Africa, 371 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: for instance, they've got a huge refinery that don go 372 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: to refinery that's being built to satisfy that gasoline demand. 373 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: That is just one example of what we're seeing happening. 374 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 1: China is doing the same, Southeast Asia, Middle East. These 375 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:10,479 Speaker 1: developing markets or developing markets quote unquote are satisfying their 376 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 1: own demand now satisfying their own supply. So if you're 377 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: pumping out aasoline in Europe or the US, you now 378 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 1: have to compete when you're trying to price that into 379 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: those markets, So your whole strategy has to change. The 380 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: one thing I would say is the oil market is 381 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: totally used to this. You know, we have big shifts 382 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: and standards. We've always had big shifts in inspecs, and 383 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: they're not afraid to move things around. We've got the 384 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 1: I m O coming up next year, for instance. We'll 385 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 1: see products shift around. We've already seen it happen before 386 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: when diesel spects come into play. Um of the industry. 387 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,840 Speaker 1: It's incredibly flexible and I don't think people give it 388 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 1: a lot of credit and how they can adapt to 389 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: these changing markets. So in all this, who do I 390 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: want to be? Do I want to be a truck 391 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: and company in India? Do I want to be an 392 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 1: oil company? Do I want to be an automo? Manufacturer. 393 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: Who do I want to be. Yeah, that's quite a 394 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 1: tough question. Everybody, I think can take value out of 395 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: this in a certain way. Where I think the biggest 396 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 1: opening up in terms of value will be is auto 397 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: manufacturers or truck manufacturers. Particularly if you think of a 398 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 1: truck and company. Now, they sell their truck to somebody 399 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: who's going to use it, and that person who's going 400 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: to use it parks it fills it with diesel every day, right, Okay, 401 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: so they have like an ongoing cost for the lifetime 402 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 1: of that truck. If I am a truck manufacturer, I 403 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: want to sell them something that might be more expensive 404 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: today but with cheaper running costs. So as a truck manufacturer, 405 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 1: I have locked in more of that value that I'm 406 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 1: going to get from that person. So that's basically shifting 407 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: from the oil value chain into the auto manufacturing chain. 408 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: But you have that higher upfront cost. Right. Trucking companies 409 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: are I wouldn't say cash rich, right. They don't have 410 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: deep pockets credits probably an issue. They tend to be 411 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 1: quite small. The average size is something like ten in 412 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: their fleet. That's pretty small. You're not talking about, you know, 413 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 1: piano ferries, the very different landscape. But with some smart instruments, 414 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 1: which we've already in the electric bus market for instance, 415 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: you can basically enter into swaps. So you may have 416 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: that truck manufacturer enters into a swap with its customer, 417 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: so basically they pay a lower upfront costs, but then 418 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: what they would have spent on diesel they give to 419 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: the auto manufacture across the lifetime of that truck. That 420 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 1: to me is really where it gets interesting, and that's 421 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: where banks will will, you know, eventually get involved that 422 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: the balance sheet of automakers may not necessarily need to 423 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 1: be used, but they're already banks. False wagon have a bank, 424 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: so they're set up to think about this, and that 425 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: would be an obvious, an obvious way for me to 426 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: make money if I was a truckmaker. And oil companies 427 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,479 Speaker 1: I think will make money regardless because they match up 428 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: supply with demand. They own the ships in between. Um yeah, 429 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 1: like I said, the demand profile changes in terms of location, 430 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: the amount is still there. They'll just compete and the 431 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 1: bigger guys will be much better at place to compete 432 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: than the smaller guys. What's next to this line of research? 433 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 1: We want to have a look at bio fuels. So 434 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: what we've discovered from this one is regardless of how 435 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: fast you run, how many electric vehicles or alternative fuels 436 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 1: you put into that system, we can't get to cleaning 437 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 1: up the road fuel sector. So what could you do 438 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,479 Speaker 1: otherwise what we currently have? So we're gonna look at 439 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: bio fuels for one, is a clean wave of approaching it, 440 00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: and also how you may be able to change the 441 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 1: speck of what we currently use. So gasoline at the 442 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: moment we have ninety two run normally maybe ninety five. 443 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: You can clean up gasoline so to speak. To make 444 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: it into Layman's terms, is there a renaissance coming from biofuels. 445 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 1: There has to be something, So we're gonna check it out. Yeah, yeah, 446 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 1: I'm not promising anything. We haven't started it yet. But 447 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: then there will be a role for sure. Okay, and 448 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: there already is a role in the US where it's 449 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: maybe ten percent of consumption. Ye, Brazil is like twenty 450 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: seven percent, China is mandated twenty I think, or maybe 451 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,639 Speaker 1: ten percent from Yeah, there'll be a role. What kind 452 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 1: of bio fuels TBD David, thanks for joining us, no problem, 453 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: Thank you for having me Bloomberg Any app is a 454 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 1: service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. 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