1
00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,440
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:08,520
Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right, here we go.

3
00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:15,560
Speaker 3: Throwing spect I'm saying it's a cash touchdown.

4
00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,680
Speaker 4: And that's we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

5
00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:19,480
Speaker 4: they go to wind.

6
00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:21,759
Speaker 2: That's incredible.

7
00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,320
Speaker 4: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right,

8
00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:31,200
Speaker 4: this is the ultimate kabai. You want to pass man?

9
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,440
Speaker 4: We are way. What's up? Everybody? Welcome to the Action

10
00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,000
Speaker 4: Network Podcast presented by BETMGM. I'm your host, Chris RAYBN

11
00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:44,279
Speaker 4: and this is your NFL Week seventeen betting preview. We're

12
00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:49,280
Speaker 4: gonna talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers, moneyline dogs,

13
00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,120
Speaker 4: and of course crack open our new Year's weekend six

14
00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,160
Speaker 4: pack of against the spread bet with the help of

15
00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:58,040
Speaker 4: my co host, a man who's now eleven and zero

16
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:03,480
Speaker 4: betting bills. Games this season got the first sweep of

17
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:08,160
Speaker 4: the year, just red hot, I don't remember stuff losing

18
00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,840
Speaker 4: in about a month on a six pack. Pick Prime Minister,

19
00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:18,600
Speaker 4: other new general Nations, Stucky, Stuck, Happy Holidays, and good shit.

20
00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,440
Speaker 2: Last week, Good weekend, huge Ravens win for my future,

21
00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,319
Speaker 2: end for Lamar MVP that worked out perfectly. Look the

22
00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,520
Speaker 2: Brown's played case Keenum now they're going to play Trevor

23
00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:34,600
Speaker 2: Simeon then Jake Browning. So the Ravens getting that win.

24
00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:38,399
Speaker 2: I mean, if they were lost of the Dolphins, Brown's

25
00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,800
Speaker 2: easily could went out and then the division would have

26
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,120
Speaker 2: been very much in question. So a huge win for

27
00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens all things considered, And despite all these rules

28
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:51,880
Speaker 2: to protect quarterbacks. Week seventeen starting quarterbacks now include Trevor Simeon,

29
00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco, Bailey Zappi, Taylor Heineken, Nick Mullins, Gardner, Minshew Mason,

30
00:01:56,440 --> 00:02:03,840
Speaker 2: Rudolph Easton, Stick, Jake Browning, Jacobe Brissette, Tyrod Taylor, Jared Stidham,

31
00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 2: whoever the Titans decided to go with, maybe CJ. Bethard,

32
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,240
Speaker 2: hopefully Shroud is back. I mean, you got half the

33
00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,240
Speaker 2: league has hurt quarterbacks, So yeah, that was a frustrating one.

34
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,840
Speaker 2: But yeah it's a good weekend, good Ravens win. But

35
00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:18,960
Speaker 2: who cares. We're on the next week. Let's get the

36
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:19,600
Speaker 2: Week seventeen.

37
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,679
Speaker 4: Just a reminder, no Monday Night football this week. One

38
00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,120
Speaker 4: game on Saturday and then you got the rest of

39
00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,560
Speaker 4: the slate on Sunday, including Sunday Night Football, but no Monday,

40
00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,280
Speaker 4: So quick programming.

41
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:30,960
Speaker 5: Note for the holiday coming up.

42
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,840
Speaker 4: We still have our normal episodes next week for Week eighteen,

43
00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,400
Speaker 4: but because New Year's Day is on Monday, we'll have

44
00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,200
Speaker 4: our NFL recap episode out on Tuesday, hosted by Action

45
00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:44,000
Speaker 4: Director of Research Evan Abrams. Thanks, as always for listening

46
00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 4: on behalf of everybody here at Action. We do want

47
00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:48,800
Speaker 4: to take the time to wish you and your fam

48
00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,440
Speaker 4: your loved ones a happy, safe and profitable New Year's

49
00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,440
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four. Right now, but let's kick it

50
00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:59,240
Speaker 4: off with our final Thursday Night football preview of the

51
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three season.

52
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,520
Speaker 6: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

53
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,960
Speaker 6: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

54
00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 4: So we got Jets at Brown's. Browns favored by seven

55
00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,800
Speaker 4: and a half the total thirty four and a half.

56
00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,239
Speaker 4: I mean the Browns have been rolling Slacko's kind of

57
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,880
Speaker 4: getting it done. The Jets, I think have have the defense.

58
00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,640
Speaker 4: I don't know what I'm gonna get out of Trevor Simeon.

59
00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,800
Speaker 4: Brown's defense is banged up but still formidable against these

60
00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 4: backup caliber quarterbacks. So I mean, usually seven and a

61
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,840
Speaker 4: half with a total list low, you gotta hammer the dog,

62
00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,000
Speaker 4: But I really want no parts of this game.

63
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,360
Speaker 5: I know you usually don't like betting Thursday night stuck.

64
00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:56,440
Speaker 4: You took your chances with the Saints last week, and

65
00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,920
Speaker 4: I probably reverse jinxt you by liking this sat But

66
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,440
Speaker 4: any any plays on on this one, No, I.

67
00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 2: Mean I I mean Trevor Simion is he's worse than

68
00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson, which is hard to do. And yeah, even

69
00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,200
Speaker 2: with some of the injuries that the Browns have on defense,

70
00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,000
Speaker 2: that defense at home against the Jets offensive line and

71
00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,480
Speaker 2: Trevor Simeon, it's hard to see the Jets doing much.

72
00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,880
Speaker 2: Flaco might make a couple of mistakes like he's you know,

73
00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 2: which could keep the Jets in it. I had a

74
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,280
Speaker 2: small lean to the over, just because the Browns are

75
00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,400
Speaker 2: just chucking it all around the field now with Flacco,

76
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,360
Speaker 2: they are just pass heavy, and then you could get

77
00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,360
Speaker 2: some Flacco picks, You can get some Placo explosive plays.

78
00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 2: You also can get some turnovers some Simion that lead

79
00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,040
Speaker 2: to short fields. I just don't I don't know if

80
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,320
Speaker 2: I can trust the Jets off what the Jets offense

81
00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:56,840
Speaker 2: can give me. But under thirty five, I would have

82
00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:58,560
Speaker 2: a slight lean to the to the over. I think

83
00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,560
Speaker 2: there could be some turnovers here, some short fields. Glaco

84
00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,200
Speaker 2: throwing it a lot. You know, this isn't like an

85
00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,160
Speaker 2: old Brown seam just tries to hand it off day.

86
00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,760
Speaker 2: I mean, they are just coming out and throwing all

87
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,240
Speaker 2: over the field. So I'd lean a little to the over.

88
00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,920
Speaker 2: I'd actually trust it more if Zach Wilson was playing

89
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,320
Speaker 2: now that it's come down below thirty five. But I

90
00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,679
Speaker 2: should mentioned to some of the Browns injuries. The Browns

91
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,160
Speaker 2: don't their kicker and punter are hurt so like that

92
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,479
Speaker 2: it could get interesting on special teams for them. And

93
00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 2: Amari Cooper's questionable, which would be massive. So he has

94
00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,080
Speaker 2: a heel injury. We'll see if he plays on a

95
00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,200
Speaker 2: sure we get there going completely off, that would be

96
00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,200
Speaker 2: a massive loss. And I would not bet deal over

97
00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,200
Speaker 2: if he was out, So keep an eye on his

98
00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:42,280
Speaker 2: status as well. I wanted to mention that this is ugly.

99
00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:43,120
Speaker 2: It's a pass for me.

100
00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, And I'm trying to let's see, I just want

101
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,359
Speaker 4: to check the forecast, see if there's anything going on.

102
00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 4: I know this time of year in Cleveland not too bad.

103
00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:57,040
Speaker 4: My mild winds, yeah, in the forties, Yeah, okay, So

104
00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,920
Speaker 4: so no weather to worry about in this one's yeah over.

105
00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,920
Speaker 4: I mean, if you're gonna do it to yourself.

106
00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,000
Speaker 2: Get ready for torture. But nothing on the side.

107
00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:07,760
Speaker 4: Yeah Brown's by a touchdown about you know, I mean,

108
00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,280
Speaker 4: if you want the hook, I mean Trevor Simmy and

109
00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:14,680
Speaker 4: good luck. So let's get to the more important matters,

110
00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:18,480
Speaker 4: and that is our New Year's Weekend six.

111
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:30,040
Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for actions. Let's crack open the six pack.

112
00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,720
Speaker 4: All right, Stuck, you opened up a nice nine point

113
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,400
Speaker 4: lead sixty four fifty five with the uh. You hit

114
00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:41,960
Speaker 4: your both two pointers, your one pointer in the six pack,

115
00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,760
Speaker 4: you hit your total uh, and that gives you a

116
00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:47,960
Speaker 4: bonus point. So you got seven last week. I only

117
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 4: got two with the Vikings.

118
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:52,760
Speaker 2: My Panther's over. I should have got paid double for that.

119
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,000
Speaker 4: Oh my goodness. I mean that was That was probably

120
00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 4: your best player of the week. Like that was That

121
00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:00,200
Speaker 4: game was I was about to go over in the

122
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,800
Speaker 4: first half alone. I mean, it was just it was nuts.

123
00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 4: And of course more Packers' receivers got hurt in the

124
00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:12,080
Speaker 4: middle of it. But all right, so I gotta stage

125
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,480
Speaker 4: It'll comeback here for my first pick in the first

126
00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,360
Speaker 4: overall of the week seventeen New Year's six pack going

127
00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,880
Speaker 4: with the Raiders plus three and a half at the

128
00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,200
Speaker 4: Indianapolis Coachs. When you're betting this late in a year,

129
00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:30,080
Speaker 4: you gotta look at, Okay, what is the market kind

130
00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:33,880
Speaker 4: of not taking into account here? Obviously, we know that

131
00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:37,000
Speaker 4: Jonathan Taylor's back from the coach that's good. Kitman's still

132
00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,040
Speaker 4: in protocol. I don't I don't know if he's gonna

133
00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 4: play this week. I know he had a shoulder and

134
00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,520
Speaker 4: he's he's still in protocol, which is somewhat concerning. So

135
00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,960
Speaker 4: didn't practice Wednesday, so that's something to monitor. But I

136
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:55,400
Speaker 4: think what's really being a little bit underrated here is

137
00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,480
Speaker 4: the Raider defense. Now. Obviously, so I don't come up

138
00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:03,440
Speaker 4: big against the Chiefs with some turnovers, but and against

139
00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,560
Speaker 4: the Chargers with some turnovers as well. But as you

140
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,880
Speaker 4: like to point out, stuck, you gotta kind of filter

141
00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 4: out turnovers when you want to get a better picture

142
00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,840
Speaker 4: of just how well defenses are playing. Sometimes, so when

143
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:20,240
Speaker 4: you filter out turnovers. Since Antonio Pierce took over in

144
00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:25,560
Speaker 4: Week nine, the Raiders defense is second in e PA

145
00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:31,160
Speaker 4: per play allowed, tenth in e PA per dropback allowed

146
00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:37,200
Speaker 4: first in e PA per rush allowed, so that boats

147
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,480
Speaker 4: very well. Facing a coach team that they need to

148
00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:45,240
Speaker 4: run the ball. Gardner Minshew is a turnover waiting to happen.

149
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,600
Speaker 4: He's a disaster waiting to happen. He's gotten pretty lucky

150
00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,680
Speaker 4: this year. We saw it start to run out against

151
00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,800
Speaker 4: the Falcons last week, and we've seen we've seen this

152
00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,920
Speaker 4: in spots, but Gardner Minshew has kind of played above

153
00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,600
Speaker 4: his head this year. So you know the fact that

154
00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,240
Speaker 4: the Raiders have been a lot better against the run,

155
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,480
Speaker 4: because their season one numbers are not good, but they've

156
00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:06,720
Speaker 4: been a lot better against the run.

157
00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,360
Speaker 5: I think that's really helpful in this matchup.

158
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:12,320
Speaker 4: And you know, on the other side of the ball,

159
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:17,040
Speaker 4: this coach defense really doesn't have a ton that worries you.

160
00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,640
Speaker 4: You know, corners are kind of shaky, and especially the

161
00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,440
Speaker 4: perimeter corners. You got Kenny Moore in the slot, but

162
00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,319
Speaker 4: when you're facing the Raiders, I mean, Renfro's not really

163
00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,880
Speaker 4: been the same kind of guy this year. Even he's

164
00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,520
Speaker 4: been a little better with Pierce, But you got Adams

165
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:35,000
Speaker 4: and you got Myers playing well onny outside. Aid and

166
00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:39,320
Speaker 4: O'Connell not great either, but I don't think he's just

167
00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,520
Speaker 4: much worse than Minshew, if at all. So I'm getting

168
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,040
Speaker 4: the hook here. I think the Raiders are a live

169
00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,960
Speaker 4: dog in this spot. You look at the weighted total DVOA,

170
00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:52,480
Speaker 4: which waits the more recent games a little bit more,

171
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,679
Speaker 4: and the Raiders are fifteenth, the coach are twenty second.

172
00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:01,480
Speaker 4: So Raiders are have been the better team. And you know,

173
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,200
Speaker 4: even though the Colts have the better record and have

174
00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:07,439
Speaker 4: some you know, had that early season kind of swoon.

175
00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,840
Speaker 4: And I do like stiking, but I also like peerce.

176
00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:11,800
Speaker 4: I like the way the Raiders d is playing. I

177
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 4: don't think there should be three and the hook here,

178
00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,199
Speaker 4: So give me Vegas plus three and a half at AD.

179
00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,199
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this Colts teams a fraud. We saw

180
00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,640
Speaker 2: it last week, getting very lucky in one session games.

181
00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,960
Speaker 2: Minshew's been getting lucky. They would getting lucky on defensive takeaways.

182
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,040
Speaker 2: A number of statistics I can go through that just

183
00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,640
Speaker 2: screamed regression is coming for this team. Yeah, Raiders got

184
00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,600
Speaker 2: a little got a little magic going. They went out.

185
00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,480
Speaker 2: Chiefs lose out, Raiders win the division. I doubt that'll happen.

186
00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,520
Speaker 4: But Jack Jones, Jack Jones has been a difference maker.

187
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,360
Speaker 2: The rated huge replacing Peters. Yeah, they're they're playing really well.

188
00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,880
Speaker 2: Now you just have to hope that O'Connell completes a pass.

189
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:50,560
Speaker 2: I don't think i've ever seen a game, yeah right

190
00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,800
Speaker 2: where a team one on the road with a quarterbacks

191
00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:55,800
Speaker 2: oh ten for zero yards of the final three quarters

192
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,480
Speaker 2: against Mahomes with four nail downs, had four nail downs,

193
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,320
Speaker 2: no complete and over the final three quarters. But yeah,

194
00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:08,960
Speaker 2: with the hook here, it's raiders or nothing. Co Colch

195
00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,640
Speaker 2: injuries too, like Moss, you know, even Tailor with his

196
00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:16,360
Speaker 2: thumb pit. See Pittman gets cleared. And yeah, the defense

197
00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,600
Speaker 2: on the back end, O'Connell should be able to hit

198
00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:23,400
Speaker 2: some crows to his receivers this week, and Minshew has

199
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,200
Speaker 2: a couple of mistakes coming his way. So yeah, I

200
00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,439
Speaker 2: like it all right. For my first pick of the

201
00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:36,160
Speaker 2: New Year's Weekend six pack, I'm going with the Buffalo

202
00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,920
Speaker 2: Bills minus twelve at home against the New England Patriots.

203
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:42,760
Speaker 4: The Bills make me wan.

204
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:48,920
Speaker 3: Throw your hands up, throw your hair back, and now

205
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:50,520
Speaker 3: the Bills I'm making it happen.

206
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:51,360
Speaker 2: Might as well.

207
00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:52,800
Speaker 4: Just all right, right, let's just move on. Let's just

208
00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:53,120
Speaker 4: move on.

209
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,960
Speaker 2: Get you one put the streak on the line here

210
00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:01,200
Speaker 2: with the Bills. And look, I'm not one to want

211
00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,960
Speaker 2: to lay double digits generally in the NFL, I mean

212
00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,280
Speaker 2: double digit Division favorites are just forty five percent over

213
00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:09,400
Speaker 2: a sample of close to three hundred games over the

214
00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,720
Speaker 2: past twenty years. But this is the spot. I think

215
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,880
Speaker 2: Bill's had a brutal stretch, went out to the went

216
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 2: out to LA. I love the Chargers in the spot,

217
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,360
Speaker 2: and the Bills somehow escaped. Now you come home, got

218
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:28,320
Speaker 2: an extra day of rest, prep, refocused spot, revenge spot.

219
00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,360
Speaker 2: They lost to the Patriots in embarrassing fashion earlier this season,

220
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:36,320
Speaker 2: and I think Hide should be back. And guess who

221
00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 2: was a full participant today And this is really good

222
00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,959
Speaker 2: news for the Bill's playoff runs. Dae Kwon Jones full participant,

223
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,719
Speaker 2: massive addition in the middle. I you know, the Patriots

224
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:51,760
Speaker 2: offensive line has injuries and issues right now. I don't

225
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,360
Speaker 2: know if Stevens isn't going to play, which means they

226
00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,800
Speaker 2: can't run it, which is going to lead to ZAPPI mistakes.

227
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,880
Speaker 2: Zappy played better last week, but he's forty six out

228
00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,800
Speaker 2: of forty eight quarterbacks just at EPA per play minimum.

229
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:06,959
Speaker 2: Hunter dropbacks ahead of only Trevor Simeon and dtr So

230
00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,920
Speaker 2: I like the Bills here. When they win, they generally

231
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:15,600
Speaker 2: win big at home and Patriots are just overmatched here.

232
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,800
Speaker 2: I see a couple of zappy mistakes. I see the

233
00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:23,280
Speaker 2: Bills coming out here and just letting Alan rip because

234
00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,520
Speaker 2: you're not really going to be able to run the ball.

235
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,079
Speaker 2: So I think that leads to more of an open

236
00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,120
Speaker 2: game and get you more of a game script where

237
00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,400
Speaker 2: you can blow out the Patriots. But I like this spot.

238
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,080
Speaker 2: I like Jones back. I think it'll be back. This defense.

239
00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:42,160
Speaker 2: It is trending in the right direction, and I love

240
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:45,120
Speaker 2: the spot for the Bills. So I'm laying twelve at home.

241
00:13:46,040 --> 00:13:49,520
Speaker 2: I think they come out focused early and then if

242
00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:51,840
Speaker 2: they build a lead for the Patriots, it's done. There's

243
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:53,959
Speaker 2: the Patriots just aren't gonna be able to come back

244
00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,680
Speaker 2: in this game. So putting the record on the line,

245
00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,760
Speaker 2: give me the Bills minus twelve in New York.

246
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'll trust you. I have no feel

247
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 4: on this one. I wouldn't normally look at a twelve

248
00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,920
Speaker 4: point favorite, but you've been red hot with the Bills.

249
00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:14,160
Speaker 4: You've had a good feel for you know, when to buy,

250
00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 4: when to sell? Now you're jumping back on and yeah,

251
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 4: I mean the Papers are one of the worst teams

252
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 4: in the league, so it could easily see the.

253
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,840
Speaker 5: Bills winning by a couple of touchdowns.

254
00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:28,680
Speaker 4: So don't hate it and wishing you good luck to

255
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,960
Speaker 4: increase your streak to what without be twelve and zero?

256
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 4: If you here, yeah better, Maybe you need to start

257
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:36,360
Speaker 4: being a Bills fan. Forget the Ravens.

258
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,480
Speaker 2: Just well, I'm fan of both. This year I got there.

259
00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,440
Speaker 2: You go fifty to one on the Bills to win

260
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,520
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, so I'm trying for those that followed

261
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 2: those both futures. The goal is, like said, the Ravens

262
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,720
Speaker 2: can help themselves out, help me out and anyone who

263
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,600
Speaker 2: followed multiple ways. So they beat the Dolphins, they lock

264
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:03,640
Speaker 2: up the one seed and which is huge obviously you

265
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,880
Speaker 2: got to buy home field advantage, and then that sets

266
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 2: up the Bills assuming they beat the Patriots. If the

267
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:16,640
Speaker 2: Bills then beat the Dolphins in Week eighteen, the Bills

268
00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 2: win the division and clinch the two seed in the AFC,

269
00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,920
Speaker 2: which means the Ravens couldn't play the Bills until the

270
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:32,240
Speaker 2: AFC Championship, which is ultimately what I want now, say

271
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:36,360
Speaker 2: the Ravens lose to the Dolphins or the Bills lose

272
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 2: to the Dolphins, then you know, the Dolphins win the division.

273
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,080
Speaker 2: The Dolphins get the two, there's a chance that And

274
00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 2: by the way, if the Bills get the two, they're

275
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:49,280
Speaker 2: most likely would maybe you know, based on probability, would

276
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:53,840
Speaker 2: most likely host the Colts. So I would love that too.

277
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 2: But if the Dolphins get the two, there's a pretty

278
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,400
Speaker 2: good chance that the Bills get in with the seven,

279
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 2: which means, no matter what, if they win on wildcard weekend,

280
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 2: then the Ravens would play them in the divisional round,

281
00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:19,600
Speaker 2: which would suck. So yeah, I am a obviously always

282
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 2: an enormous ravenspan, but for multiple reasons, for their one seed,

283
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,080
Speaker 2: for the Bills chances to win the division. It's just

284
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 2: a massive game that we'll we'll talk about later. But

285
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 2: uh yeah, let's let's run it back with the Bills.

286
00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 2: That was a Yeah. I think that those they'll they'll

287
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 2: come out focused here. That was a I just had

288
00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 2: a feeling that game was gonna come down to the

289
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,880
Speaker 2: fourth quarter. They were going to be sleepy as hell.

290
00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 2: I think they get refocused here.

291
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's been. It's been fascinating to watch.

292
00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,160
Speaker 4: I mean, you're talking about a team that was one

293
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,680
Speaker 4: of the past obvious teams in the league finding a

294
00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 4: way to do it running the football. I mean, Stefan

295
00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,760
Speaker 4: Diggs is like he's not even he's running. He's playing

296
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 4: on like eighty percent of the past he's not really

297
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 4: producing and I mean, so far, so good. But at

298
00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 4: some point you figure they're going to get him back involved.

299
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:09,880
Speaker 4: So they Yeah, they got a lot of upside.

300
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:14,400
Speaker 2: It would be pretty crazy though, just with Rape Ravens

301
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 2: beating Dolphins as favorites, Bills beat Patriots as favorites, and

302
00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 2: the Bills beat the Dolphins in a coin flip, the

303
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:26,679
Speaker 2: Bills would have went from ten percent playoff odds like

304
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,840
Speaker 2: five weeks ago to the two seed in the AFC.

305
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:32,119
Speaker 2: That's crazy.

306
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the Bills and the Chiefs just kind

307
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 4: of went in opposite trajectories at the exact same time,

308
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 4: all because.

309
00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:45,520
Speaker 2: Of the off sides changed so much in the AFC

310
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:50,800
Speaker 2: playoff picture. Just a crazy, crazy play that maybe gets

311
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,640
Speaker 2: the Bills in the plaoffs, maybe gets in the division. Yeah,

312
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 2: so where are you going for your second pick?

313
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 4: Let's running back Steelers plus three and a half at Seattle.

314
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 4: You know, I look at this game and I'm not

315
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,439
Speaker 4: going to sit here and give you a ton of

316
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,879
Speaker 4: matchup edges for the stealers or anything like that. You know,

317
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 4: they are the better team in terms of weighted in

318
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:15,159
Speaker 4: terms of DVOA and weighted DVOA which waits you know,

319
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 4: recent games more heavily. They're eleven Seattle to seventeenth defense.

320
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is seven Seattle's twenty fours. I already talked about

321
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 4: this last week, but Rudolph is an upgrade on Picket

322
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 4: and Truebisky. If you look at adjusted net yards her

323
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 4: attempt as a Steeler, Trubisky four point nine, Picket five

324
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:39,560
Speaker 4: point zero, Rudolph five point five. Seattle. Something so off

325
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,480
Speaker 4: with them, you know, even when these wins, which you know,

326
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 4: credit to them for getting a couple of you know,

327
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 4: three point wins back to back and getting their season

328
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 4: back on track. But they've held below three hundred yards

329
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:52,440
Speaker 4: of total offense in five of the last eight games.

330
00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 4: For comparison, everyone knows talks about Pittsburgh can't move the

331
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 4: ball and whatnot. Pittsburgh's only been held under three hundred

332
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 4: yards and three of its last eight games, both of

333
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 4: these teams are. It could be a letdown spot for

334
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 4: either team really, but you know, I'll take the points

335
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 4: with Pittsburgh here. You know Tom win as a dog

336
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 4: sixty four percent, fifty six thirty one and three against

337
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,400
Speaker 4: the spread. Pete Carroll when Seattle is favored coming off

338
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 4: of a win twenty and thirty one against the spread

339
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 4: thirty nine percent. And we know Tom win. You know

340
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 4: when they play teams with eco better records thirty nine

341
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,200
Speaker 4: sixteen to one, seventy one percent.

342
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 2: The standard is the standard. That's our motto, that's our creed,

343
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 2: that's our approach time.

344
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 4: And Tom again, you know, Pittsburgh obviously dealing with injuries

345
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 4: at safety and linebacker.

346
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:38,800
Speaker 5: Seattle doesn't throw.

347
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 4: Over the middle, though, so that's not gonna hurt Pittsburgh

348
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,960
Speaker 4: as much as it would against some, you know, certain

349
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 4: other matchups. And I do like what I did, like

350
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 4: what I saw of Rudolph. You know, obviously Cincinnati is

351
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 4: not a good defense, so take it with a grain

352
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 4: of salt. But just the fact that he's given George

353
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 4: Pickens a chance, I think unlocks you know, more of

354
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 4: their offense, and you know, hopefully you can also get

355
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,960
Speaker 4: friar moose going. So I think this Pittsburgh offense will

356
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 4: be all right here against Seattle. You know, bottom eight

357
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 4: in in DVOA on defense and trading down they're actually

358
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 4: twenty sixth and in waighted DVOA. So you know they're

359
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 4: benching cornerbacks and things like that. So I think this,

360
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 4: I think Pittsburgh has a shot here. I'm getting the hook.

361
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:31,200
Speaker 4: So I like Pittsburgh's ods probably ends in a Seattle

362
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 4: three point win. So give me the Steelers plus three

363
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,360
Speaker 4: and a half in Seattle.

364
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rudolf bans with good throws last week. I always

365
00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 2: I'm a little just concerned because you just see that

366
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 2: with backups, like when does the yeah, when does the

367
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 2: expiration hit? Is it two to three weeks? Because we

368
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 2: kind of know who Rudolph is. But I talked with

369
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 2: this last week, like Rudolph's career just at he paid

370
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 2: for play like better than pickets. It's right there with that.

371
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 2: I don't think I didn't have any drop off. And

372
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:03,239
Speaker 2: then he's actually playing with confidence, whereas Trubisky had lost it,

373
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 2: Bortals had just he lost the blot. Witherspoon might be

374
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 2: back for Seattle. He was in practice today, which will

375
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 2: help them. But yeah, I'm taking the hook here is

376
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 2: the only way that I would go. But I don't

377
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 2: have a strong feel although it's science. Either the Ravens

378
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 2: beat the Dolphins and then said everyone, or the Steelers

379
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: win this game because Tom Win has to finish over

380
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 2: five hundred For my second pick and the fourth overall

381
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: the New Year's Weekend six pack, I'm going also back

382
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 2: to the well the Atlanta Falcons plus three at the

383
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears. There's a Bears team that I've liked over

384
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 2: the past month, so I finally started playing. But that's

385
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,639
Speaker 2: when they were, you know, underdogs, and now this is

386
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 2: a different role for them. I know they covered last

387
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 2: week against the Cardinals, but asking the Bears to win

388
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: by margin with everything that's going on, I have to

389
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: take the baser. I make this line like one. I

390
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 2: think the Falcons are still a little undervalued. People hate

391
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 2: the Falcons, people hate Arthur Smith, and there's good reasons

392
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 2: for that sentiment. But they've also been super unlucky. Like

393
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 2: this is a team before last week. They were one

394
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 2: in five over the past two months in games decided

395
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 2: by five or last. Four of those came in the

396
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 2: final seconds, and that's with Desbon Ritter basically handing teams

397
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: the game with just mind numbing turnovers. Heinike towards are

398
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,479
Speaker 2: fifteenth and adjusted EPA for play this year plus zero

399
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 2: point one oh four riddles thirty first Maget to point

400
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 2: oh two eight. I do think it's an upgrade. Heineke

401
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 2: can also, he's just more. You know, he makes some

402
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 2: risky throws too, but he doesn't make as I've never

403
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 2: seen a quarterback make some of the throws that Rittle makes,

404
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 2: so he just hands in a team the ball. The

405
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 2: Carolina one is that was this.

406
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 4: I would say that in the last two years, the

407
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 4: Falcons probably have the worst interception, which is that Ridder one,

408
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 4: and they also have the worst throw period, which was

409
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 4: the Mariota falling down on his ass and just launched those.

410
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 4: I mean, the only one I was it comes close

411
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 4: is that mac Jones throw when he had the tight

412
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 4: end wide open against the Colts. Yeah, like, either one

413
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 4: of those two is the worst interception. I can't I

414
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 4: go back and forth because I think the Jones one

415
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 4: was worse in the sense that he literally had a

416
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 4: guy wide open in the end zone, whereas Ritter but

417
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 4: then Ritter didn't even have a guy open and just

418
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 4: to the other side. I don't know, I don't know which

419
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 4: is worse, but yeah, yeah, sorry, I digress.

420
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: No, it was crazy. So and then when I look

421
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 2: at this, and by the way, all sixteen, this will

422
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 2: be the sixteenth Falcons game with a spread of three

423
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: and a half or less. First time in NFL history

424
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 2: that's happened. Ridiculous. Every single one of their games is

425
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 2: just appeel goal spread and all their games, all their

426
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 2: games besides last week they blew up the fraud Colts.

427
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 2: All their games they end up it ends one or

428
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: two somehow. So if you're thinking, oh, I'm just gonna

429
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 2: take the money line, don't because the Falcons find ways

430
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 2: to lose games by one or two all the time.

431
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 2: But look the Bears. I just think that this is

432
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: the of the market on the Bears for what it's

433
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 2: worth Bears fans. If you win out and there's a

434
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,159
Speaker 2: couple of things that have to happen. But if you

435
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: went out and the Rams and Seahawks lose out, there's

436
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 2: a chance you can get in the playoffs somehow. You

437
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:14,720
Speaker 2: need a couple of other things to happen. But that's

438
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 2: that's your starting point, which is very unlikely. But the

439
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 2: you know, the Bears, I think peak of the market

440
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: now here are There's six wins this year, the Vikings

441
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: with Dobbs, the Cardinals outdoor pumpkin golf, the Panthers, the

442
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: Raiders with Hoyer, and the Commanders. Like, that's as bad

443
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 2: as it gets. I mean, those six wins are worth

444
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: nothing to me. So they have been playing better Montes

445
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 2: sweat adds another dynamic to their defense. Their offense has

446
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 2: also been playing a bit better. But you can't run

447
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 2: on Atlanta on your mata's back. And by the way

448
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: they were offensive line, I think McGarry should be back.

449
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 2: They got Linstering back. You know, they were missing a

450
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 2: number of their most important trench players in Carolina in

451
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 2: that loss. But the Bears, Tevin Jenkins got banged up,

452
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 2: Cole Kmett got banged up, and DJ More I doubt.

453
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,239
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's gonna play. He probably will

454
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 2: try to play, but he's not gonna be a one

455
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:17,680
Speaker 2: hundred percent with his ankle injury. So there, you're not

456
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 2: gonna be able to run at Atlanta. That's the strength

457
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: of their d And then you have fields. You know,

458
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: offensive line injuries to your best weapons are banged up,

459
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: so I think that plays into Atlanta's hands. I don't

460
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: think that the Bears should be a field goal favor here.

461
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 2: I'll take the Falcons here catching a field goal on

462
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 2: the road. And the worst part about this is I

463
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 2: actually think they find a way to win this game,

464
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: and they still do have a chance to win the division,

465
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 2: but they would need the Bucks to lose out and

466
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 2: then they play at the Panthers, which isn't impossible. But

467
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 2: if they just would have beat the Panthers in that

468
00:25:56,000 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 2: throw being prime position. But I don't the Falcons pluster.

469
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 2: I don't think this should be a field goal.

470
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: I'm always behind trading the Bears as favorites. I mean

471
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 4: they are they like you said, they have been playing better.

472
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 4: That sweat trade has worked out well. You know, fields

473
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 4: is surviving in there. But this team still kind of

474
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 4: finds ways more often than not to lose games fields

475
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 4: as four and ten against the spread as a favorite

476
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 4: or as a dog by like three or less. So

477
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 4: usually the time about the Bears, when you know they're

478
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 4: the bigger underdogs that we but we spy more than

479
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 4: a field goal definitely not as a favorite, so don't

480
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 4: hate it at all.

481
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 5: All right.

482
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 4: For my third pick, the fifth overall of the New

483
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 4: Year's Weekend six pack, going with the Los Angeles Chargers

484
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 4: plus three at the Denver Broncos. Like what I saw

485
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 4: the Chargers last week. I thought they I thought they

486
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 4: did some you know, switch the things up on defense.

487
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 4: They talked, they got more input, input from the players,

488
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 4: and I think guys just play better. I think I

489
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 4: like what they did with taking Durwin James out of

490
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 4: coverage some you know where he's just getting torched. And

491
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 4: now you know, Jared Stidham, I actually don't think he's

492
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 4: a massive downgrade, believe it or not. From Russell Wilson.

493
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 4: I mean, Russell Wilson was not playing well, but this

494
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 4: is also his first game with the you know, with

495
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 4: the Broncos. And the only guy who really who's really

496
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 4: been showing up lately for for Denver offensively is Courtland Sutton,

497
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 4: and he's in the concussion protocol. And you know, Jerry

498
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 4: Judy struggles against man coverage. Chargers can can still play that,

499
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 4: uh you know, hey, I mean they're playing Lucas Crow

500
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 4: and Troutman at tight end Javonte Williams has hit a wall,

501
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,159
Speaker 4: you know, probably too much of a workload. McLoughlin's been solid,

502
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 4: but they're still using that three back rotation charges have

503
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 4: been better against the run lately as well. Uh and

504
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 4: then Denver.

505
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 5: Denver's defense, you know it.

506
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 4: They had that Miami game and it looked like they improved,

507
00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 4: but as you pointed out, it was a lot to

508
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 4: do with just getting turnovers, and when they don't get turnovers,

509
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 4: it's a problem. We know turnovers kind of are somewhat random,

510
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 4: so I don't expect you know, the way Eastern Stick

511
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 4: played against really these last two weeks. If you could

512
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 4: just play like that, I think the Chargers can win

513
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:22,879
Speaker 4: this game in Denver, especially if Courtlandtton misses. I just

514
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 4: don't think that running game is playing well. Denver's down

515
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 4: dead last in DVOA against the run. So I think,

516
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 4: you know, Ekwick can have some success. Doubt you'll get

517
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 4: Keenan Allen back, but that would be a bonus as well.

518
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 4: You do have Joshua Palmer back. Everett's playing well, and

519
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 4: I don't have to wait Stick is playing as well.

520
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think the Chargers are another one of

521
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 4: these live dogs here. I got it at four and

522
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 4: a half. Full disclosure, mad at myself for not just

523
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 4: taking the five and a half. I liked waited and

524
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: then I figured Russell Wilson was gonna get benched. But

525
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 4: either way, I think this is another spot where the

526
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 4: Chargers show up. They looked rejuvenated against Buffalo. They looked like,

527
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 4: you know, even though they're seasons kind of shot, they

528
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 4: just couldn't wait to get over Stally. I mean, it

529
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 4: was just night and day. And now you have kind

530
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 4: of another letdown spot for the Broncos because with that

531
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 4: Patriots laws not it's demoralizing, but now you're kind of

532
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 4: playoff hopes are kind of shot.

533
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 5: Benched, your your good.

534
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 4: Quarterback, so in maybe you get The only thing I'm

535
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 4: scared of is, you know, maybe everyone just hated Russ

536
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 4: so much that you get that same kind of bump

537
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 4: if you're the Broncos. But I just don't I just

538
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 4: don't think there's much difference between these two teams at

539
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 4: this point. And I think the Chargers are are trending

540
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 4: up and the Broncos are trending down.

541
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 5: So give me the Chargers plus three for what it's worth.

542
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 4: Road underdogs with an average point differential over their last

543
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 4: three games of negative eighteen or more, which the Chargers

544
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 4: have because of that big blowout to the Raiders. Lost

545
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 4: to the Raiders, those teams have gone sixty one and

546
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 4: thirty one sixty six percent against.

547
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 5: This bread over the last two decades, So LA plus three.

548
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. I'll I don't have a

549
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 2: strong feel, but that's the side that I would lean towards,

550
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 2: and I'll be rooting for them because I've Denver under

551
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 2: eight half wins, so I need them to drop one

552
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 2: of the next two. By the way, I should mention

553
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 2: two of the things. Well, we'll get to the Packers game.

554
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 2: But did you see Alexander got suspended for going to

555
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 2: the coin toss? Yeah, and I mean I don't like,

556
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: I've never seen that before.

557
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 4: It's it's it's messed up, but it's I mean, Gyr

558
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 4: Alexander has to find a way to not play like

559
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 4: it's whether it's a phantom injury or like a real

560
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 4: injury or getting suspended for going out in the coin

561
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 4: to us. I mean, did this Packer team like between

562
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 4: jay R getting suspended for the coin toss and who

563
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,239
Speaker 4: was it last year, was it was it Quaywalker? Who

564
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 4: was it that got ejected twice?

565
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 2: Quaywalker? Yeah?

566
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, quay Walker getting ejected twice for like this, Like

567
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 4: what the heck is going on? You almost blow a

568
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 4: game to the Panthers, You get up thirty points to

569
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 4: the Panthers. Bryce Young goes for over three hundred with

570
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 4: no picks. I mean this Packer team, man, But yeah,

571
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 4: Chargers for me? Where you're going with your final pick

572
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 4: of the week seventeen New Year?

573
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 2: Joe Barry's got to go, and Packers will be very

574
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 2: intriguing next year, especially with some better injury luck. But

575
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 2: for my third pick and the sixth overall of the

576
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: New Year's weekend six pack, I'm going reluctantly back to

577
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 2: well the New Orleans Saints plus three at the Tampa

578
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 2: Bay Bucks. This is I don't have much separating these

579
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 2: two teams. Baker Mayfield's played pretty well of late, but

580
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: he's also putting the ball in harms way and getting

581
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: away with it. He's got twenty six touchdowns and eight interceptions,

582
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 2: but twenty one big time throws nineteen turnover worthy plays.

583
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: He's been getting a bit fortunate. The whole Bucks team

584
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 2: you know, if we look at our luck rankings by

585
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 2: the way, which whenever there's huge gaps and luck rankings,

586
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: I mean, the betting on the team that has the

587
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: massive negative discrepancy has been a cash cow, and the

588
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: Saints have been one of the unluckiest teams the NFL.

589
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 2: The Bucks one of the luckiest. Couple stats that point

590
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: that out. I mean the Bucks can efficiently run the ball.

591
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: They're bad on early downs. I mean they're twenty third

592
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,960
Speaker 2: in EPAP to play on early downs, but twelfth overall

593
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: early downs much more predictive of future success. They have

594
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: eighteen fumbles on the year, they've only lost six. They've

595
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 2: been so lucky on fourth downs. Their red zone defense

596
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: has overperformed. They've won four straight. I think this is

597
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: the top of the market on them. Baker Mayfield is

598
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 2: a favorite for what it's worth thirteen and twenty five

599
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 2: against the spread, thirty four percent feeling the cover by

600
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 2: a fueld goal per game. Among two hundred and twenty

601
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: quarterbacks who have been lined as chalk in at least

602
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 2: one game over the past two decades, he's the fifth

603
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: least profitable as a favorite. So I think this Bucks

604
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 2: team is over performed a bit. I think Mayfield has

605
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 2: some aggression coming. A lot of I get a lot

606
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 2: of Colts vibes with the Bucks, and this is you

607
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: should get the Saints' best effort here. They need to

608
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 2: win this game. The Bucks kind of you know, they

609
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 2: know that they can just beat the Panthers for the division.

610
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 2: But I just don't have much separating these teams. It's

611
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: a divisional game. Home field is negligible, So I'm going

612
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 2: to take the field goal here in the divisional game,

613
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 2: which should be a close game. The Mayfield regression is coming,

614
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 2: and the Bucks, just as a team, have been extremely fortunate.

615
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: Saints on the other end of that spectrum, Car has

616
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: been so hit or miss, like sometimes will look good

617
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: in this new offense and sometimes it look completely lost.

618
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 2: Hopefully you get ram checked back but and hopefully you

619
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: just get good Car. But I think that this line

620
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 2: should be like one, one and a half, not three.

621
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 2: So I'll take the Saints road divisional dog here in

622
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: a game that could decide the division.

623
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, the Bucks have been a fun surprise.

624
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 4: This is the time you fade them though you know

625
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 4: where they are favorites. They you know, as you mentioned

626
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 4: Baker and Todd Bowles is a favorite of a field

627
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 4: goal or more is just six fourteen and two against

628
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 4: the spread just thirty percent.

629
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 5: So this is the spot.

630
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 4: I was surprised that you picked the Saints first in

631
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 4: our draft because you knew I wasn't gonna take them,

632
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 4: so but yeah, this is this is the same spot.

633
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 4: I'm not going to touch him because I it's just

634
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 4: I just hate the saves. I mean, I like like

635
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 4: they were the right play last week to of course

636
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 4: where they go down like three scores.

637
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 5: Before they woke up.

638
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 4: But I do like the fact that Rashidzia Heat is

639
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 4: now playing like ninety percent of the snaps. I think,

640
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 4: you know, he gives them a that explosive element because

641
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 4: it seems like they're all checked down or you know deep,

642
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 4: you know, low percentage downfield throws. So at least with Shaheed,

643
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: you got a chance to hit more of them. Carlton

644
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 4: Davis is on the injury report.

645
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 5: He might not go.

646
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 4: Bucks defense has just been I mean, some of the

647
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 4: numbers schedule adjusted are a little better than the raw numbers,

648
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 4: but this defense is exploitable. When you got Shaheed, you

649
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 4: got a live you got Camara so I think the

650
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 4: Saints have enough to win this game. What we really

651
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 4: need is, uh, we need some bounty gate. So if

652
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 4: we can, if we can knock Mayfield out, and then

653
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 4: we never wish that any I'm just joking obviously, but

654
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 4: if we can knock Mayfield out, then maybe you know,

655
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 4: Kyle the Panthers versus Kyle Trask, and maybe they got

656
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 4: our Falcons future back.

657
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 2: Und I don't know. Look, Bucks, the Bucks need to win.

658
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 2: You see it every year. I'll talk about this next week.

659
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 2: The teams that need to win. That's true playing corpses.

660
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 2: You see every year one or two will lose that

661
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 2: divisional road game. It'll be the Panthers Super Bowl. I'll

662
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 2: probably be on the Panthers that game, depending on where

663
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: the line is. But I could see the Panthers win

664
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 2: in that game. But yes, obviously be much easier here

665
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 2: with trasts. But what will happen is, oh yeah, because

666
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 2: the Saints play of the Falcons. What will happen is

667
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 2: the Bucks lose and then the Falcons like lose on

668
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 2: the last second touchdown, the Saints getting the playoffs.

669
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, like Heinegel get knocked out, Ritter will come back

670
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 4: in and like the one, the one handoff he did,

671
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 4: like the one time they don't call like a handoff. Yeah,

672
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 4: he'll throw a pick or just fumble the ball over

673
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 4: the goal line for a touchback something like that.

674
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 2: Oh man, NFC South, it's a special place.

675
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna lie though.

676
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 4: I am enjoying this. See, Like I know a lot

677
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 4: of people like the maybe the more casual fans are

678
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 4: saying like, hey, you know, it's so many backup quarterbacks started. Yeah,

679
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 4: so much, so many no real like you know, dominant teams.

680
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 4: But I kind of enjoy this.

681
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: You know.

682
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 5: It's just kind of up for grabs, you see. And

683
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 5: you're gonna see.

684
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 4: Some weird weirdness happened these last two weeks and even

685
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 4: into the first even the second round. The player, if

686
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 4: you're gonna see some really weird things, I always love that.

687
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 4: All right, that's gonna do it. For the New Year's

688
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 4: Weekend six pack here on the Action Network podcast presented

689
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 4: by bet MGM to recap, Stuck went Buffalo minus twelve

690
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 4: against New England, Atlanta plus three at the Bears, and

691
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 4: the Saints plus three at the Bucks. I went with

692
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 4: the Raiders plus three and a half at the coach

693
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,239
Speaker 4: the Steelers plus three and a half at the Seahawks

694
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 4: and the Chargers plus three at the Denver Broncos. See

695
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 4: if you could get the hook, there could be a discount.

696
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 4: I'm seeing, you know, minus one oh fives on some

697
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 4: of the threes, which means you may be able to

698
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 4: get the hook for you know, minus one twenty. I

699
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 4: mean you may. Yeah, you might might be able to

700
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 4: get the hook for minus one twenty or minus one fifteen,

701
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 4: So be sure to shop around. That's gonna wrap up

702
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 4: our New Year's Weekend six pack. Now it's time for

703
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:46,879
Speaker 4: our Week seventeen coach pep Talk.

704
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 5: You keep playing the way you're playing, We're gonna get

705
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 5: an a half feed again to night. And it stopped

706
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 5: right now.

707
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 4: All right, This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us

708
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 4: from Key and Peel, and we're gonna dedicate it to

709
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 4: the Denver Broncos because nothing's more demoralizing and losing to

710
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 4: a quarterback whose last name rhymes was crappy. And now

711
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:11,359
Speaker 4: you got your backup quarterback because your season is essentially over.

712
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,879
Speaker 4: This one's for you, Denver. I'm not even gonna wish

713
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 4: you up because I'm on the Chargers this week, y'all

714
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 4: want to play?

715
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 3: Are you out of your goddamn mind?

716
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 2: Do you want to go to war?

717
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,800
Speaker 3: Because we could go to war, So you better check yourself.

718
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 4: Y'all feel me, you're done messed up.

719
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 3: Now take your ass on down to office right now.

720
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 3: We're tell him exactly what you did before I break

721
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 3: my foot off in your ass and subordinate and churlish.

722
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 4: But let's go to the favorite to our favorite total

723
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 4: of week seventeen. We're both nine and seven this year.

724
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 4: I went first for the six packs, so you're up

725
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 4: for the total. Stuck where you're going.

726
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 2: Let's go to Houston, Tennessee over forty three. Making some

727
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 2: assumptions here, I'm assuming that straddles start. He's been out

728
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 2: for two weeks with a concussion, and to the if

729
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 2: he does, I love Houston overs because he will attack

730
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 2: downfield and you certainly can do that against this Tennessee

731
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 2: defense that also has a lot of injuries, most importantly

732
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Simmons, who's on IR but they have other injuries

733
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 2: across the board. I also think Will Levis is going

734
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 2: to get the start. Both throw it downfield. Both quarterbacks

735
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 2: also just not afraid to put the ball down the field,

736
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 2: and that's kind of what you want. You don't want

737
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: check down artists when you're betting it over and today's

738
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 2: NFL and Will Anderson, you know he's out of the boot,

739
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 2: but I don't think he'll play. Blake Cashman, I doubt

740
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 2: I'll be back. Jimmy Wardon, Yeah, ward On ir so

741
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: like their defense is trending in the wrong direction. In Houston,

742
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,440
Speaker 2: Tennessee's defense as a tackle downfield. And I think Tennessee

743
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 2: the last time these two teams played at end of

744
00:39:54,880 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: the night nineteen sixteen, in overtime, Stroud didn't play, and

745
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 2: you know, the total was thirty nine Without Stroud, Tennessee

746
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,359
Speaker 2: went up and tried to run the clock out in

747
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 2: that game because they were saying, hey, we're not playing,

748
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: you know, we're playing, you know, the backup for the Texans.

749
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 2: But all and I think that leve is going to

750
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: play and all Vrabels talked about over to the past

751
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: week is getting reps. And then again they only they

752
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: ran the ball thirty times or ninety yards, couldn't really

753
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 2: run it. I think that they it's hey, let's see

754
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 2: what Levis has got right. So I think they're going

755
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 2: to come out here and throw. You know, Shroud's going

756
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 2: to do that and both, you know both. If you're

757
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 2: looking at this game from a matchup perspective, you want

758
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: to attack both these defenses through the air, and I

759
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 2: think that's what's going to happen here. So I think

760
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a past heavy game script with a

761
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 2: lot of explosive plays. So I think this total should

762
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 2: be closer to forty five, So it gonna be Tennessee

763
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,719
Speaker 2: Houston over forty three.

764
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it as long as Stroud plays. You know,

765
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 4: I think even without Tank Dell, I still think they

766
00:40:58,480 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 4: can get there.

767
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 5: I am going it over as well, rare over for me, but.

768
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 4: I like this Giants Rams over, and the reason being

769
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 4: I think Matthew Stafford is playing really well fourteen touchdowns

770
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 4: no picks over his last five games. Here are the

771
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 4: Rams combined scores over the last five weeks, fifty one,

772
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 4: fifty five, sixty eight, forty eight, fifty two. Rams are

773
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 4: getting to the high twenties or low thirties pretty consistently

774
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 4: these days. Both of these defenses are outside the top

775
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 4: twenty in DVA. And you know the Giants, they they're

776
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:44,240
Speaker 4: safeties and linebackers are playing well. But that's not really

777
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 4: how you're gonna slow down this Ram offense, because this

778
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:53,760
Speaker 4: Ram offense has now with DeMarcus Robinson playing really well,

779
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, I guess Atwell is playing well

780
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 4: to start the season. But that's my point. They have three.

781
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 4: They have three formidable receivers, two really good ones and

782
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 4: cupping the Kua and the giant cornerbacks. All three of

783
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 4: their starters, Deontay Banks, Porto flot and a Dori Jackson

784
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 4: rank ninetieth or worse in PFF grade among one hundred

785
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 4: and twenty two qualified corners. Slot in the slot is ninetieth.

786
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 4: Deontay Banks, who's banged up by the way, is one

787
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 4: oh five, and then adri Jackson is just having a

788
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 4: miserable season and he is one hundred and thirteenth with

789
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,320
Speaker 4: a forty eight point nine PFF grade one hundred thirteenth

790
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 4: of one hundred and twenty two qualifiers. So you know,

791
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 4: I know the Rams are going across country and playing outdoors.

792
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 4: Doesn't look like the way is going to be too

793
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 4: bad here in this spot. I still think, you know,

794
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 4: Stafford has the arm strength to get it done. Regardless,

795
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 4: and he's been very good against the Blitz this year

796
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 4: as well, which is always something that you have to

797
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 4: look out for when you're looking to put up points

798
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 4: on the Giants because Wink Martindale Giants have a top

799
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,919
Speaker 4: five width rate this season. And on the other side,

800
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:13,359
Speaker 4: the Giants are going back to Tyrod Taylor to Yeah,

801
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 4: big upgrade. I expect the Rams.

802
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 5: To be able to move the ball and get some explosives.

803
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 4: With it with Cup Nikua and DeMarcus Robinson, and I

804
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 4: expect the Giants to be able to it's a CounterPunch.

805
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,480
Speaker 5: Give me Giants Rams over forty three and a half.

806
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't. I don't mind this one. I also like

807
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 2: the Giants huge upgrade in my opinion. With Taylor, it's

808
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,280
Speaker 2: not going to turn the ball over and he knows

809
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: how to just I mean, he can use his legs,

810
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: his mobility in the pocket, and he can rip apart

811
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 2: zones that don't have talented second defensive backs, which is

812
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 2: what we'll get here.

813
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 4: That is our totals stuck as Titans. Texans over forty three.

814
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 4: I got Rams, Giants over forty three and a half.

815
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 4: Now it's time for our favorite teaser of week seventeen.

816
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:06,279
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, six point teasers, don't.

817
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 4: Change. Don't tease me trying to please. We are ten

818
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 4: and six apiece on our teasers, so twenty and twelve.

819
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:24,759
Speaker 4: Sometimes it's some overlap here because usually you're trying to

820
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 4: tease as stucky. You've talked about ad nauseum, trying to

821
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 4: tease through the three and the seven if possible, And

822
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 4: this week it's not a ton of options.

823
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 5: So it's one of those weeks where we're going with.

824
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 4: The same teaser. So bring it down.

825
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go with the Chiefs down to one. The

826
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 2: Chiefs are offensively, they're a mess. I mean, they've been

827
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 2: unlucky with like turnovers in the red zone and there's

828
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: some aggression from there, but the tackles are a mess.

829
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 2: The receivers are a mess. So my homes isn't playing

830
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 2: as well. Kelsey's on the decline, but they should be

831
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: able to move the ball in this Bengals defense that

832
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:05,720
Speaker 2: doesn't have reader, that gives up explosive runs is vulnerable

833
00:45:05,760 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 2: in the back end. It's a great bounce back spot

834
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 2: for the Chiefs, but tease them down to one at home.

835
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 2: The expiration dated also has hit for Browning. And by

836
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:16,959
Speaker 2: the way, Browning, I mean, if you look, he played

837
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 2: the Jaguars defense, which is in a steep decline, and

838
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 2: they had injuries in the secondary, you know, then he

839
00:45:22,680 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 2: played the horrible cult secondary, then he got just miraculous

840
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 2: throws against the Vikings, and then it all came crassing

841
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 2: down last week. Exploration datas hit for mister Browning. And

842
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 2: I don't think Chase will play or be it close

843
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 2: to one hundred percent. And then let's tease the Giants,

844
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 2: I mean the Packers from two up to eight. I

845
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 2: don't know who's gonna play receiver for the Packers. I

846
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 2: mean Doug Doubs will play. We'll see on Watson, Wicks, Reid.

847
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 2: But Aaron Jones looked great last week, and the Vikings

848
00:45:54,840 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 2: at the same problem. Howkinson is out. Addison's not CoA

849
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 2: one hundred percent of even play, which makes that Vikings

850
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 2: offense with whoever plays quarterback, if it's Jaren Hall or

851
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 2: Nick Mullins, much easier to defend. Should be a one

852
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 2: possession game. So let's go Packers and Chiefs.

853
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, totally agree. I think this is a spot, you know,

854
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 4: I mean more of a gut field because I don't

855
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 4: really like laying these these big numbers too often, but

856
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 4: I do think this is kind of the the bounced

857
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 4: back spot for the Chiefs. I think they end up

858
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 4: covering the seven as well, but obviously there's a lot

859
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 4: of downsides, so rather tease them, and yeah, I mean,

860
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 4: you don't know what you're gonna get out of the

861
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 4: Vikings quarterbacks. The Vikings are banged up.

862
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 5: So you know, teasing the Packers up to a one

863
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 5: possession game.

864
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 4: Jayden Reid back of practice, that's good news for Green Bay.

865
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 4: So yeah, like like.

866
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 5: That one as well.

867
00:46:54,800 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 4: All right, time for our money line underdog parlay. But

868
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 4: as a reminder, the Action Network podcast is presented by BETTMGM,

869
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 4: and you can use bonus code Action act Ion and

870
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 4: get up to fifteen one hundred dollars paid back and

871
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:17,240
Speaker 4: bonus best if your first bet loses for new uses

872
00:47:17,239 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 4: in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

873
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

874
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 4: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one rolled again

875
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 4: win problem call one eight hundred gambler. Now it's time

876
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 4: for an underdog money line parlay.

877
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 6: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

878
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 6: money line parlay.

879
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,399
Speaker 4: All right, stuck, you've been hot on these this year,

880
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 4: seven seven hits for you, just three for me, so

881
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 4: we've hit ten in total. Both came up short last week.

882
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 4: But let's get it going for this week.

883
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 5: Where you're going, I'm gonna switch it up, Let's get

884
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 5: a little crazy.

885
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Carolina Panthers against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

886
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 2: What do I want with these? Just a quarterback on certainty?

887
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 2: The Jags are a mess right now that we know

888
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 2: their defense is poor. Panthers offenses showed signs of life

889
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 2: of late playing a little better. But the Jags Lawrence

890
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: might not play, and if he does, he might not

891
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 2: be able to go full strength, or it might not

892
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 2: last didn't practice today. You might be down to CJ. Bethard.

893
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 2: You already have Christian Kirkhar's a Jones might not play.

894
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 2: The offensive line is a mess. They can't run the ball.

895
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 2: All the pressures on Jacksonville here and everything's falling apart internally.

896
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 2: I could you know with the quarterback on certainty, let's

897
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 2: take a shot with the Panthers.

898
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 4: Well, that's two thirty four Carolina at BENMGM. I like it.

899
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 4: I was thinking about that one as well. You know,

900
00:48:55,160 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 4: more fun than betting the spread with Carolina. You still

901
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 4: never know what you're gonna get. Although I thought it

902
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 4: was promising what they did against Green Bay last week,

903
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 4: but you know, not every team has Joe Barry on

904
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 4: the other side. Outough with the Atlanta Falcons plus one

905
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 4: thirty at the Chicago Bears, and it's just as simple

906
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:18,800
Speaker 4: as I still think this Bear team is still a

907
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 4: little green in terms of, you know, knowing how to

908
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 4: win games. You've seen them blow some weeds. Seems like

909
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 4: most of their games end up close in the fourth quarter.

910
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:31,440
Speaker 4: And Justin Fields has really struggled as a you know,

911
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:34,359
Speaker 4: when it's his favorite or he's not getting you know,

912
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 4: more than a field goal on the spread. So I

913
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 4: think the Bears, you know, this is still kind of

914
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,919
Speaker 4: a toss up game. You've talked about it. I think,

915
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,439
Speaker 4: you know, with Tyler Heineke, the turnover risk is it's

916
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 4: they're more productive turnovers. You know, he's probably going to

917
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 4: be taking a risk if he turns it over, whereas Ritter,

918
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 4: you know, as we talked about, sometimes he gives the

919
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 4: ball away in situations that you know there's no there's

920
00:49:57,000 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 4: no benefit or upside if he accomplished with he was

921
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 4: trying to. So like the Falcons here, I can easily

922
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:07,800
Speaker 4: see them defeating the Bears. I just hope Arthur Smith

923
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 4: comes with one of his better game plans because he's

924
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,720
Speaker 4: all over the place this season. So if you parlay

925
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:17,440
Speaker 4: the Panthers plus two thirty at Jacksonville and the Falcons

926
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 4: plus one thirty at the Bears, you get parlay odds

927
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 4: of plus six fifty nine. So's some nice juicy odds

928
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 4: this week. Of course, you know, don't be afraid to

929
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 4: just bet them individually as well.

930
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 5: Always encourage people to do that. If you are parlaying,

931
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 5: you know.

932
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 4: Still bet your picks individually as well, because you know

933
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,759
Speaker 4: the objective is to make good picks and hit them all.

934
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 4: So you don't want to leave money on the table

935
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 4: by just forcing yourself to you know, to be one

936
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:54,280
Speaker 4: hundred percent. But yeah, Panthers, Falcons. Now it's time for

937
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 4: the best of the rest. Games we have not covered

938
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 4: in any other segment, but are still as they say,

939
00:51:00,520 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 4: meaningful to some that's gonna be a touchdown, but that

940
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 4: may be meaningful to some of you, so you know

941
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 4: what I mean.

942
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 2: All right?

943
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 4: First off, we got the Saturday game and I'll have

944
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 4: a right up on this stuck. We'll have a right

945
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 4: up on Packers Vikings, so look out for both of those.

946
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 4: But we got the Lions at the Cowboys on Saturday.

947
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 4: Cowboys favored by six, the total up to fifty three

948
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 4: and a half Dallas. You know, when I look at

949
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 4: this game, I say this Lion defense steel, shaky, still

950
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 4: not anywhere near enough to slow down Dallas. Yeah, yeah,

951
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 4: And you know I know who is the Tyron Smith.

952
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 4: I think is banged up for Dallas, So you know

953
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 4: it's not perfect. But at home Dallas has been an

954
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 4: absolute juggernaut in terms of scoring points. So I think,

955
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 4: you know, I want to look probably at an over somehow,

956
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 4: some way. I'm thinking of maybe looking at the Cowboys

957
00:51:58,719 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 4: team total over.

958
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 5: I think the Cowboys get to thirty.

959
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: Here.

960
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 4: You also Dack favored by six or more, thirty twelve

961
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 4: and against the spread. These are kind of the spots

962
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 4: with Dallas tends to bounce back twelve and three for

963
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 4: Dallas off and against the spread loss going back to

964
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 4: the last two years, Dallas at home against the spread

965
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 4: seventeen and seven since twenty twenty one, so it could

966
00:52:27,040 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 4: be a closer game. I don't know if i'd necessarily

967
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:30,959
Speaker 4: weigh the points, but like I said, maybe a team

968
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,759
Speaker 4: total over for the Cowboys at least. But what are

969
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 4: you thinking here?

970
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind that team total angle. There's a

971
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 2: really good spot too. They've lost to in a row.

972
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:44,360
Speaker 2: Lions were celebrating their first division win in seventeen centuries

973
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 2: last week.

974
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 4: Since Barry Sanders.

975
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Dallas been a juggernaut at home. They should be

976
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 2: able to just move the ball up and down the

977
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 2: field at will. Detroit's offense could have some success too.

978
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 2: I kind of leaned the over in the game, but

979
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 2: fifty three and a half, which would be the highest

980
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 2: closing it closes that the hias closing over under of

981
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 2: this season and the highest since Dolphins Chargers last December,

982
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:08,840
Speaker 2: which closed fifty four and a half. Totals of fifty

983
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 2: plus twenty seven and twelve to the under over the

984
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:14,919
Speaker 2: past two years. It's just it's tough to get there

985
00:53:15,239 --> 00:53:19,120
Speaker 2: with how defenses are playing. But I think that both

986
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:23,320
Speaker 2: offenses should have success. But I trust the Cowboys defense

987
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 2: at home to make more plays. So but I make

988
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:30,879
Speaker 2: it like six four six five. So I don't mind

989
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 2: that team total angle at all.

990
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know, I think with the Dallas team total,

991
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 4: one thing that helps is you could it's not outdoors,

992
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 4: but you could get Jared Goff against some pressure, could

993
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 4: get some mistakes from him. Maybe another one of the

994
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:49,959
Speaker 4: Cowboys patented fumble or pick sixes, so that would also help.

995
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 4: But look out for that. I'll have something on that.

996
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 4: Next up, we got the Arizona Cardinals at the Philadelphia Eagles.

997
00:53:57,640 --> 00:53:59,879
Speaker 4: Cardinals ten and a half point underdogs on the road.

998
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 4: Total is forty eight. The Cardinals are kind of tempting here,

999
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 4: you know, even after the you know, they let us

1000
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:11,479
Speaker 4: down against the or let me down against the Chicago Bears.

1001
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 4: Kyler Murray still fifteen and five against the spread in

1002
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 4: his career, seventy five percent as a road underdog. I

1003
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,799
Speaker 4: still don't think the Eagles have suddenly figured things out,

1004
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 4: you know, just because they finally you got to win

1005
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 4: against the you know, tom half of Tommy DeVito and

1006
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 4: ty Red Tailor in in relief Giants so.

1007
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 2: Almost led him back to win exactly.

1008
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 4: So I could see the Cardinals hanging around here. But

1009
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 4: I mean the Cardinals, geez, there's they're so bad too.

1010
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,400
Speaker 4: You know, it would help to get Marquise Brown back.

1011
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:43,239
Speaker 4: I mean, Michael Wilson has just hit hit a wall.

1012
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 4: He's been invisible the last two games. I think Patricia's

1013
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 4: got them playing a little better around defense, but still sloppy.

1014
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:54,360
Speaker 4: The vibes still aren't good. So you know, if you

1015
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:56,480
Speaker 4: were going to make a case for the Cardinals, I wouldn't.

1016
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 4: I wouldn't argue it. But what are you thinking here?

1017
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 2: I guess I had a bet and I would take

1018
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. But I know, I just there's so many

1019
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 2: things wrong with this Eagle team. I not, I don't

1020
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 2: just don't want to be laying double digits with them.

1021
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 2: But they could just line up here and have ten

1022
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 2: minute touchdown drives running the ball against this run d

1023
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:20,440
Speaker 2: I mean, what did the Bears round at thirty nine

1024
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,880
Speaker 2: times for two hundred and fifty yards last week with

1025
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 2: no formals? Yeah, the Eagles can follow that script and

1026
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:36,480
Speaker 2: just wear down this Cardinals team with long drives. So yeah,

1027
00:55:36,520 --> 00:55:39,000
Speaker 2: this is this is a pass for me. Though, yeah,

1028
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 2: the under but like, yeah, he's just like long. You know,

1029
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:46,439
Speaker 2: the Cardinals d sucked. They might just happen like these

1030
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 2: eight to nine minute drives. It just sucked the game away.

1031
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, but they're also probably be efficient, which is kind

1032
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 4: of the issue with Yeah. Yeah, like that's why it's

1033
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:57,200
Speaker 4: not a slam dunk. But yeah, I mean under as well,

1034
00:55:57,200 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 4: it's a bit high. But you know, depending what happy early.

1035
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 4: I mean, if the Cardinals get the ball, let's they

1036
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:05,839
Speaker 4: drive down the field and score go up and then

1037
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 4: it gets dicey quick.

1038
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right.

1039
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:15,000
Speaker 4: Next up, we have San Francisco at Washington, Washington, starting

1040
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:18,399
Speaker 4: Jacobe Brissette in the place of Sam Howell. This week.

1041
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,480
Speaker 4: How of course, benched each of the last two weeks.

1042
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 4: I think all of the you know, sacks and you know,

1043
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 4: that record pace for sacks early in the year started

1044
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:30,879
Speaker 4: to catch up to him, and he just he kind

1045
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 4: of looks a little Yeah, he looks a little rattled.

1046
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,439
Speaker 4: And it's crazy because I mean, you know, we talked

1047
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:38,839
Speaker 4: earlier in the pot about how you know, five five,

1048
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:42,760
Speaker 4: six weeks ago. Yeah, the Chiefs sitting pretty the Bills

1049
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 4: looked like they were you gonna miss the playoffs. And

1050
00:56:45,920 --> 00:56:50,239
Speaker 4: also I mean Sam like Washington fans because I you know,

1051
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 4: I follow every team in a variety of places, including

1052
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 4: their like even their Reddit threads, so I can see

1053
00:56:56,120 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 4: what there. We've got a quarterback like he's our quarterback

1054
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:03,319
Speaker 4: in the future, he's our franchise guy. And now it's over.

1055
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 4: It's it's it's done.

1056
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 2: So it's too.

1057
00:57:07,200 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 4: Bad, but I mean you can get a fresh start,

1058
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,239
Speaker 4: you know, How's always gonna be kind of a dark

1059
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 4: throw but which they've looked better with Jacoby Brissett in

1060
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 4: this b enemy offense. But it's hard to truly judge

1061
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 4: because a lot of it has come in garbage time

1062
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:25,240
Speaker 4: where they're down big and they have kind of made

1063
00:57:25,240 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 4: these games competitive at the end. But I don't know

1064
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 4: have like what do you think of Like is it

1065
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 4: is it just smoking mirrors with Bresette because they're already

1066
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 4: down like twenty thirty points when he comes in.

1067
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 2: I mean he's yeah, I mean that's part of it.

1068
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 2: But he also, like hal has lost his confidence per Sette,

1069
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 2: is he Perseett? Is Tyron Taylor? Like look at the

1070
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 2: top five lowest rates in NFL history. It's like Brady Rogers, Forsette,

1071
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 2: Taylor and Tyron Taylor and Brissette. So yeah, he's not

1072
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 2: gonna he's not gonna make mistakes. He knows where to

1073
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 2: go with the ball and yeah, so it's just a

1074
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 2: cleaner operation. I think it's an upgrade. I think it's

1075
00:58:08,400 --> 00:58:13,880
Speaker 2: just like the Giants going to Tyrod Taylor did forty

1076
00:58:13,960 --> 00:58:15,840
Speaker 2: nine ers. I mean, the thing is the forty nine

1077
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 2: is if they were full straight, they would score at

1078
00:58:17,640 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 2: will against this horrendous defense. But Trent Williams Groyd injury,

1079
00:58:22,640 --> 00:58:25,560
Speaker 2: so they got some injuries on the offensive line, Purty Stinger.

1080
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 2: They might not be at one hundred percent on offense.

1081
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,000
Speaker 2: So and this number is pretty high. But I some

1082
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,959
Speaker 2: I should upgrade Washington a little bit more for having

1083
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 2: Brisett in there. But I'm like at thirteen and a half,

1084
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 2: so this is a pass. But it also could just

1085
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 2: be a sleepy spot for Sam, Like you got it

1086
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:45,480
Speaker 2: one of two ways, Like, oh yeah, they're gonna bounce back,

1087
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 2: but emotional game against the Ravens, short week going across

1088
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 2: country to play Washington, like you know, and if they

1089
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 2: don't have Williams of Purdy's banged up, I could see

1090
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:58,920
Speaker 2: them being a little flat here. Actually, which might be

1091
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 2: a little counterintuitive, but I could see it going both ways.

1092
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 2: I would love fourteen Washington, but as of right now,

1093
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 2: this is a pass and I want to wait on

1094
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 2: some injury stuff with san fran If you were going.

1095
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 4: To play this at all, if it's early in the

1096
00:59:11,720 --> 00:59:15,360
Speaker 4: week and you know, Shanahan is just like, hey, you know,

1097
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,440
Speaker 4: Purty and Williams aren't going to practice, but you know,

1098
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 4: I think they're going to play.

1099
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:21,760
Speaker 5: So the line, you know, the line doesn't really move

1100
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 5: too far.

1101
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 4: You could also kind of take I don't mind taking

1102
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 4: the plus third team, but Washington and then I mean

1103
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 4: there's a yeah, because you're still that's still a pretty

1104
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:35,320
Speaker 4: solid number, but you're getting all that upside of like

1105
00:59:35,600 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 4: Prety potentially could get rute out, Williams could get routed

1106
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 4: out late in the week where they just.

1107
00:59:41,520 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: Don't throw with party and they just go real.

1108
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, yeah, they're just trying to get out of

1109
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 4: his air.

1110
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah. So remember that game they were minus.

1111
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, So I don't mind just taking kind of

1112
00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:57,520
Speaker 4: you know, uh, taking Washington at the big number. I

1113
00:59:57,520 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 4: think it's more likely that it goes down than up.

1114
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 4: Actually at this point, just because right now we're kind

1115
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 4: of assuming per he's in and Williams, like I said,

1116
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:08,520
Speaker 4: said he was in. So if he gets ruled out

1117
01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 4: like you know what, you know, Friday or something, you'd

1118
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:15,160
Speaker 4: be in a good spot. So last one is Miami

1119
01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 4: at Baltimore. Ravens favored by three and a half. The

1120
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:22,440
Speaker 4: total is forty seven. Jaymon Wadow high ankle sprain. They

1121
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:25,760
Speaker 4: haven't officially ruled him out, but they you can't play

1122
01:00:25,800 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 4: Jamin Wild on a high ankle sprays. It's you know,

1123
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 4: it's just I don't I don't think that's feasible. So

1124
01:00:32,640 --> 01:00:36,280
Speaker 4: I think he's gonna miss. So, I mean you're the

1125
01:00:36,840 --> 01:00:38,800
Speaker 4: I mean then they're not the Bills, but you do

1126
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 4: pretty good on the Ravens as well. So what are

1127
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 4: your thoughts that I actually kind of I know, we

1128
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 4: don't like Lamar as a favorite, but I kind of

1129
01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:48,080
Speaker 4: wean Ravens it just because Miami has been so bad

1130
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 4: against good teams on the road.

1131
01:00:49,600 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 5: But what are you thinking here?

1132
01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:55,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, like the spot for the Ravens is horrible. When

1133
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,440
Speaker 2: they got this day, we're hyping that game up and

1134
01:00:59,000 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 2: you know it's a short week. I'm back across the country.

1135
01:01:03,160 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 2: But then again, this is for the one seed. You're

1136
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 2: at home, and the Dolphins are also off of a

1137
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:12,600
Speaker 2: big win. So yeah, I mean I make it around

1138
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 2: three seven when trying to adjust for some of these injuries,

1139
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 2: but I want to see, like the Kyle Hamilton is

1140
01:01:18,520 --> 01:01:23,080
Speaker 2: really important. We'll see what his injury status is because

1141
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:27,240
Speaker 2: he hurt his knee. It looked okay, but we'll see

1142
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 2: where he stands the Dolphins injury situation. I mean, Moster

1143
01:01:31,720 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 2: kind of got banged up. I mean, I'm assuming he'll play,

1144
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 2: but a Chaine is not one hundred percent wattle, I

1145
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 2: don't think we'll play. Tyreek is not one hundred percent explosive,

1146
01:01:44,200 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 2: so like he's still going to put up his numbers,

1147
01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 2: but he just wasn't as explosive last week. I think

1148
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:51,160
Speaker 2: he got targeted fifteen times. He had nine catches like

1149
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 2: ninety yards. But without wattle, there's so much easier to

1150
01:01:56,120 --> 01:01:59,640
Speaker 2: cup to defend because you can just they're gonna bring

1151
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 2: press on Tua and then they're gonna have someone over

1152
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 2: top of hill if there's no wattle. And then who

1153
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:09,680
Speaker 2: were also worried about, like Braxton barrios So and then

1154
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:13,480
Speaker 2: also you got a Robert Hunt Austin Jackson. You know,

1155
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 2: they already have Connor Williams and Isaiah win on ir

1156
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:20,000
Speaker 2: Javon Holland he's still not back. He's important. They're mister

1157
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 2: Jalen Phillips. He's massive up front. So you know they're

1158
01:02:24,760 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 2: gonna probably play a lot of zones and Lamar rips

1159
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:33,360
Speaker 2: them up this year. So yeah, I think three and

1160
01:02:33,400 --> 01:02:38,600
Speaker 2: a half right now is the right number. And I

1161
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 2: will be rooting like hell for the Ravens. If it

1162
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:43,640
Speaker 2: was at three, I'd probably look at Baltimore with all

1163
01:02:43,680 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 2: these injuries. But I think three and a half is

1164
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:47,840
Speaker 2: pretty fair number here.

1165
01:02:48,200 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 5: What about a juiced up three like I've seen some

1166
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 5: like minus twenty eighteens minus three like minus went eighteen,

1167
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 5: something like that, and interesting maybe.

1168
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 2: I mean if Hamilton's in and then like Wattle doesn't

1169
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:06,479
Speaker 2: go for or and especially like if Holland isn't back, yeah,

1170
01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:09,640
Speaker 2: then I can see it. I also think that McDonald

1171
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 2: is gonna have a game plan that confuses to a

1172
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:18,160
Speaker 2: especially with these offensive line injuries. So yeah, I kind

1173
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 2: of want to get more. I wouldn't hate it because

1174
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:22,440
Speaker 2: I do. I do think that I don't think Holland's

1175
01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 2: gonna play I don't think that Wade's gonna play like

1176
01:03:26,080 --> 01:03:28,640
Speaker 2: they're in the playoffs, So I know you want to

1177
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:30,280
Speaker 2: get the one seed, but you can't like have you

1178
01:03:30,320 --> 01:03:33,680
Speaker 2: can't risk long term injuries when you're in the playoffs.

1179
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I wouldn't hate that based on how I

1180
01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:40,919
Speaker 2: think the injuries are gonna play out. But it is

1181
01:03:40,960 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 2: still bad. Even though you know the Dolphins are off

1182
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:45,440
Speaker 2: a big win, it's still a bad just emotional spot

1183
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:46,840
Speaker 2: for the Ravens. Like I could see them coming out

1184
01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:48,920
Speaker 2: a little flat, even though like they're gonna have the

1185
01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 2: crowd and it's a short week that a huge win,

1186
01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 2: So I'm just a little worried about if they come

1187
01:03:56,000 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 2: out a little slow. There's a physical game, So yeah,

1188
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:05,120
Speaker 2: maybe I'll maybe if you want, like wait to see

1189
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 2: if Raven's live that they get down early. But yeah,

1190
01:04:09,840 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 2: I just think three and a half's the right number here.

1191
01:04:13,480 --> 01:04:17,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, Okay, Yeah, I'm definitely leaning Ravens, so I'm gonna

1192
01:04:17,800 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 4: be minoring that those injuries as well. That's gonna wrap

1193
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 4: it for us here at the Action Network podcast. Again, everyone,

1194
01:04:25,960 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 4: thank you so much for listening. We really appreciate you.

1195
01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:34,160
Speaker 4: Have a happy, happy New Year, and we'll be back Thursday.

1196
01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:37,840
Speaker 4: Every you know, throughout the regular scene, throughout the postseason.

1197
01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:40,560
Speaker 4: Of course, you can hear more of me this week

1198
01:04:40,560 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 4: with my guy Sean Kerner, who's been killing it this year,

1199
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 4: talking fantasy dfs, all that good stuff on the Fantasy

1200
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:52,000
Speaker 4: Flex podcast. We also have our Fantasy Projection pod out

1201
01:04:52,080 --> 01:04:54,800
Speaker 4: right here on this channel, and you can hear Stuck

1202
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:58,080
Speaker 4: talking college football over on the Big Bets on Campus pod.

1203
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 5: Stuck is on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybon.

1204
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:04,640
Speaker 4: We're at those same handles on the free award winning

1205
01:05:04,760 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 4: Action Network app where you can follow our bets port track, yours,

1206
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 4: Happy New Year's and let's get this money.

1207
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 2: Let go, we can go right, Let's go.

1208
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 4: Bills.

1209
01:05:21,480 --> 01:05:25,560
Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1210
01:05:25,600 --> 01:05:28,080
Speaker 6: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1211
01:05:28,120 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 6: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler