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Speaker 2: It's just about ten weeks to go until the election.
Speaker 2: Two weeks to go until we're supposed to see a
Speaker 2: presidential debate take place on ABC.
Speaker 3: That's on September tenth.
Speaker 2: And of course these weeks are sure to fly by
Speaker 2: because just to give you a sense of how quickly
Speaker 2: time is moving in this election cycle, it was five
Speaker 2: weeks ago that Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid, exiting
Speaker 2: the presidential race, making way for Kamala Harris, who, within
Speaker 2: those last five weeks her campaign says, has now raised
Speaker 2: over half a billion dollars four hundred, five hundred and
Speaker 2: forty million dollars to be exact, raised by her campaign
Speaker 2: and affiliated super pac. Eighty two million of that was
Speaker 2: raised at the DNC in Chicago last week. So it
Speaker 2: is a money race here that we are paying attention
Speaker 2: to and always with an eye on. It is Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Gregory Cordy, who covered the White House in politics for
Speaker 2: US and is joining me now in studio here in Washington.
Speaker 2: So Gregory, of course, cash advantage is a big thing
Speaker 2: in the presidential campaign. We've seen Biden during the course
Speaker 2: of his now ended campaign out raising Trump and Trump
Speaker 2: outraising Biden.
Speaker 3: It does feel like things have flip flopped a lot.
Speaker 2: But with the kind of frenetic pace of fundraising we
Speaker 2: have seen so far from the Harris campaign, is it
Speaker 2: going to be possible for Donald Trump to reach a
Speaker 2: cash advantage once again?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you set up that context because that's
Speaker 4: exactly what I was going to bring to this. So
Speaker 4: the question that you asked, now, where do we go
Speaker 4: from here? And I think that's an open question. Look,
Speaker 4: both of these campaigns, it's part of the modern political
Speaker 4: presidential campaign game to seize on a moment. And one
Speaker 4: way to quantify how big a moment is is to
Speaker 4: talk about your small dollar fundraising. So when Trump was
Speaker 4: leading in the fundraising, it was because he was being
Speaker 4: indicted or convicted and people rallied around him. President Biden
Speaker 4: had a big fundraising a week after his State of
Speaker 4: the Union address. And here we have Kamala Harris being
Speaker 4: the new fresh face in this race. Right, she enters
Speaker 4: the race, she gets a bounce, she continues to get
Speaker 4: that bounced through the convention. As you said, more than
Speaker 4: half a billion dollars in just one month. I mean,
Speaker 4: let's just wrap our heads around how astronomical that is.
Speaker 4: A few months ago, if a candidate had, you know,
Speaker 4: one hundred million, one hundred and fifty million, we would
Speaker 4: think of that as a big month. So this is huge.
Speaker 4: And what the Harris campaign would point to is the
Speaker 4: first time donors, because those donors suggest room to grow.
Speaker 4: They're not at the thirty three hundred dollars person limit.
Speaker 4: Presumably these are often fifty dollars, So maybe they'll give
Speaker 4: fifty dollars a yen next month, and and again, and
Speaker 4: so these are encouraging numbers for the Harris campaign. The
Speaker 4: question is, can Trump find some moment for him to
Speaker 4: rally around And it could be the debate, it could
Speaker 4: be some other moment, some October surprise that we haven't
Speaker 4: quite We don't know yet, but that's certainly going to
Speaker 4: be the game for both these candidates.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you point out that the campaign did
Speaker 2: emphasize that about a third of these donors of the
Speaker 2: five hundred and forty million dollars were first timers. They
Speaker 2: also said two thirds were women. Gregory and I wonder
Speaker 2: how telling that is when we've been talking about the
Speaker 2: battle for women, specifically in the suburbs, and how pivotal
Speaker 2: they could be and ultimately deciding which way this election goes.
Speaker 4: That is remarkable. I've been doing this long enough that
Speaker 4: a few decades ago, when you would see a campaign contribution,
Speaker 4: it would often been be done in the husband's name,
Speaker 4: but they would both of them would contribute as sort
Speaker 4: of a household. Now we're seeing women donate in their
Speaker 4: own names, and very often you might see the husband
Speaker 4: donate into one party and the wife donating to the
Speaker 4: other party and canceling each other out. It is remarkable
Speaker 4: and it demonstrates how big this gender gap is growing.
Speaker 4: Even before Kamala Harris got into the race, we were
Speaker 4: seeing a growing divide between men and women in America
Speaker 4: that has been growing for decades, but really Donald Trump
Speaker 4: has accelerated it. Now Kamala Harris is in the race
Speaker 4: and obviously talking about a lot of women's issues. She's
Speaker 4: talking about reproductive rights, but she's also talking about childcare.
Speaker 4: She's talking about things that will appeal to that holy
Speaker 4: grail of swing voter, the suburban woman.
Speaker 2: Well, and of course she's not just talking about it
Speaker 2: on stage, as we saw her do in Chicago or
Speaker 2: in her various campaign appearances. She's also taking a lot
Speaker 2: of that messaging to the airwaves, which raises the question, Gregory,
Speaker 2: about it's one thing to raise all the money, it's
Speaker 2: another thing to spend it. And the pace of spending
Speaker 2: matters here as well. Right, we have seen this campaign,
Speaker 2: and Biden's campaign before this, shelling out more cash than
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's was or it is now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And the feeling when it was Biden's spending that
Speaker 4: money is that he needed to make up some ground,
Speaker 4: and soon he left Kamala Harris with about a ninety
Speaker 4: two million dollar war chest. She's obviously built and expanded
Speaker 4: upon that. But the candidate dollars, For as much as
Speaker 4: we talk about superpacks, the candidate dollars are so valuable
Speaker 4: because under Federal Election Commission and Federal Communication Commission rules,
Speaker 4: the TV stations have to give the lowest best deal
Speaker 4: to the candidate campaigns. They get the time blocked off
Speaker 4: for them first, and so those dollars go a lot further.
Speaker 4: Super PACs can do a lot in terms of filling
Speaker 4: in the gaps, but it's really these campaign dollars that
Speaker 4: go the furthest What we are going to see though,
Speaker 4: in a lot of these swing states, especially Pennsylvania, where
Speaker 4: the lion's share of the money is being spent right now,
Speaker 4: is you might get to the part where there's just
Speaker 4: no ad inventory on broadcast stations.
Speaker 3: To it's all bought up.
Speaker 4: If you're a mattress store or a car dealer in Pennsylvania,
Speaker 4: you may just take the month of October off because
Speaker 4: you you may not be able to buy an ad.
Speaker 4: That the airwaves are going to be so saturated with
Speaker 4: political ads, I'm already hearing it. I stopped by the
Speaker 4: Pennsylvania delegation at the Democratic Convention last week and they
Speaker 4: are already just inundated back to back to back.
Speaker 2: Ads well on a subject of as it calls to mind.
Speaker 2: During the Super Bowl, we saw a few political ads
Speaker 2: as well. One of them that perhaps got the most
Speaker 2: attention was from RFK Junior campaign that now is put
Speaker 2: on pause.
Speaker 3: He dropped out or not?
Speaker 2: I Guess officially dropped out but suspended his campaign on Friday,
Speaker 2: endorsed former President Trump. Do we have a sense yet
Speaker 2: of what real difference that's likely to make where the
Speaker 2: people who were suggesting in polls were going to vote
Speaker 2: for him go Now there's.
Speaker 4: A Republican answer to this question. There's a democratic answer
Speaker 4: this question. I'll give you my answer to this question.
Speaker 3: That's the one, which is.
Speaker 4: That I don't know that it makes a whole lot
Speaker 4: of difference. What we saw before he dropped out was
Speaker 4: that he was taking roughly equally from Republicans and Democrats.
Speaker 4: The Republicans will point to some numbers that he was
Speaker 4: taking a little bit more from Trump maybe, and so
Speaker 4: this this advantages him, but that was all within the
Speaker 4: margin of error. But also keep in mind that a
Speaker 4: good number of Kennedy supporters, maybe forty percent, were people
Speaker 4: who said they wouldn't show up to vote if it
Speaker 4: were just Trump versus Harris. These were a lot of
Speaker 4: double haters, and they were double haters for a reason.
Speaker 4: So the big question is going to be, just because
Speaker 4: RFK endorses Trump, will his followers go with him to Trump?
Speaker 4: And that's something we're just gonna have to watch in
Speaker 4: the polls for the next few weeks. But keep in mind,
Speaker 4: you know, Kennedy had started with maybe at he topped
Speaker 4: out it maybe fifteen percent. Some poles had him as
Speaker 4: high as twenty. By the time he dropped out, he
Speaker 4: was under five percent. So we're not talking about a
Speaker 4: huge voting block in some of these swing states. It
Speaker 4: could make a difference, and that's why I think he
Speaker 4: made the decision he did.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg White House and Politics reporter Gregory Cordy,
Speaker 2: thank you, as always for joining me. Now to continue
Speaker 2: this conversation, we turned to Matt Bennett. He is executive
Speaker 2: vice president at Third Way. Matt, of course we caught
Speaker 2: up in Chicago briefly as well, and I asked you
Speaker 2: about RFK Junior at that time, on the eve of
Speaker 2: his suspension of his campaign.
Speaker 3: He now, of course has done so.
Speaker 2: And I wonder if your answer agrees with Gregory's that
Speaker 2: it's not actually clear this is going to make much
Speaker 2: difference at all.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I fundamentally agree with that. However, I will give
Speaker 5: you the democratic answer. As Gregory noted, there are two
Speaker 5: and that is what we really don't know is the
Speaker 5: scale of this RFK could be a problem for Trump
Speaker 5: for two reasons. First, he is kind of repellent to
Speaker 5: a lot of women. He has admitted to sexually assaulting
Speaker 5: his kid's babysitter and has said there's probably other women
Speaker 5: out there that have come forward with allegations against him
Speaker 5: that he admits. And the second thing is he said
Speaker 5: he would sign a federal abortion band when he was
Speaker 5: still running for president, So those are not things designed
Speaker 5: to attract women. Also, the guy is just super weird.
Speaker 5: I mean, over the weekend a story came out about
Speaker 5: how he took his kids down to the beach, cut
Speaker 5: the head off a beached whale, put it on the
Speaker 5: roof of his car, and had his kids put plastic
Speaker 5: bags on their heads to keep the whale juice off
Speaker 5: of their heads. I mean, he is a weirdo, and
Speaker 5: if Trump and Vans are trying to avoid that label,
Speaker 5: maybe bring an RFK on wasn't such a great idea.
Speaker 2: Okay, So now we have the whale story, we have
Speaker 2: the bear story, we have the photo next to a
Speaker 2: barbecue dog at one point many years ago, Matt.
Speaker 3: All of these animal reminders.
Speaker 2: It is worth pointing out, of course, that you third
Speaker 2: way also played a role in vanquishing if you will,
Speaker 2: No Labels or at least their efforts this election cycle
Speaker 2: out of concern that they could actually be a big spoiler.
Speaker 2: There was the spoiler concern about RFK Junior as well,
Speaker 2: and arguably if you listen to him and is running
Speaker 2: meet Nicole Shanahan. It was the idea that they were
Speaker 2: turning into a spoiler that impacted their decision.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 2: What does it say to you that now there is
Speaker 2: really no third party option, that this is ultimately going
Speaker 2: to be a choice Trump Harris or stay home for
Speaker 2: the American voter.
Speaker 5: Well, first of all, I'm very happy that the major
Speaker 5: third party candidates at No Labels then RFK now out
Speaker 5: of the race. I think it makes it much clearer
Speaker 5: for voters. However, there are a couple left. Jill Stein
Speaker 5: is still running as a Green Party candidate. That might
Speaker 5: not strike most listeners as very important, but she had
Speaker 5: an impact on the outcome of the election in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 5: even getting only one or two percent of the vote
Speaker 5: in swing states. If she does that again, that could matter.
Speaker 5: So we're going to keep the pressure on and make
Speaker 5: sure that voters understand who Jill Stein is, and that
Speaker 5: she's not a safe place for them to park their
Speaker 5: vote if they're unhappy with both Harris and Trump.
Speaker 2: We consider where votes move when candidates leave the race.
Speaker 2: It does take me back to the conversation we were
Speaker 2: having in March after Super Tuesday when Nicki Haley dropped
Speaker 2: out this idea, where does the nicky Haley voter go?
Speaker 2: Now that we are seeing Harris pick up in polls,
Speaker 2: in some cases substantially higher than Joe Biden was pulling
Speaker 2: in July when he dropped out of the race, does
Speaker 2: that suggest to you that maybe some of those nicky
Speaker 2: Haley voters are indeed going to her as that other
Speaker 2: choice or do we not know that?
Speaker 3: Answered definitively yet.
Speaker 5: Well, there's certainly there some. I mean, we saw them
Speaker 5: at the convention in t shirts that said Haley voter
Speaker 5: for Harris, So we just don't know the magnitude of that.
Speaker 5: My guess is that most of the reason that the
Speaker 5: polls have tightened is because the people that we refer
Speaker 5: to as the double haters, people that weren't happy with
Speaker 5: both Trump and Biden, have almost have overwhelmingly moved towards Harris.
Speaker 5: They have gone from something like twenty two percent of
Speaker 5: the electric down to blow ten and that can be
Speaker 5: the reason for the difference. Some of them may have
Speaker 5: voted for Haley in the primaries, some didn't. But there
Speaker 5: is a real battle on for those people, people who
Speaker 5: may never have voted for a Democrat before but just
Speaker 5: can't bring themselves to vote for Trump for all of
Speaker 5: the reasons that Harris are and others particulated.
Speaker 2: So what wins that battle, Matt? Is it money that
Speaker 2: helps or is it actual people that helps? And I
Speaker 2: asked this because as I was just talking to Gregory
Speaker 2: about the big fundraising hall for Harris in the month
Speaker 2: and changed since Biden dropped out. Yes, it's over half
Speaker 2: a billion dollars, but her campaign also pointed to more
Speaker 2: than two hundred thousand people signing up as volunteers.
Speaker 3: What matters more?
Speaker 5: Oh, well, there's no doubt that people matter more than money,
Speaker 5: especially in presidential races. In modern presidential campaigns, no one
Speaker 5: loses or wins because they have more money, because both
Speaker 5: sides have so much that they basically hit a point
Speaker 5: of diminishing returns in the hand states that really matter.
Speaker 5: If you live in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, you have my condolences.
Speaker 5: You're in for hellish several months of television viewing and
Speaker 5: they're going to see plenty of ads. What matters most
Speaker 5: is hearing from trusted messengers, and what that means is
Speaker 5: mostly people in their networks, people that they know, their neighbors,
Speaker 5: their colleagues, their friends, their family. And the fact that
Speaker 5: so many new people are coming to the Harris campaign
Speaker 5: to volunteer is enormously important. Now, a lot of those
Speaker 5: two hundred thousand do not live in those seven states,
Speaker 5: and they can be helpful, but not as helpful as
Speaker 5: the people who do. So we really got a hope
Speaker 5: that people rally to her in the places that matter.
Speaker 2: The most well and in those places that matter remote,
Speaker 2: those swing states, we're seeing the candidates criss crossing them
Speaker 2: this week. Trump's planning to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: Harrison Walls. Later on this week, we'll be doing a
Speaker 2: bus tour of Georgia, as some Poland have suggested, suggests
Speaker 2: Matt that the Sun Belt is more in play than
Speaker 2: it was for Joe Biden. If you were advising the
Speaker 2: campaign on where they should be divvying up their time
Speaker 2: their resources, be it people, money, or otherwise, should they
Speaker 2: be focusing a lot of energy on the Sun Belt
Speaker 2: or should they concentrate in the rest belt where we're
Speaker 2: seeing Trump advance spend a lot of time.
Speaker 5: I think they got to do both for a couple
Speaker 5: of reasons. First of all, unlike when Biden was running,
Speaker 5: as you note, Harris definitely has a shot in North
Speaker 5: Carolina and Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, and winning some or
Speaker 5: all of those states could be the difference even if
Speaker 5: we end up losing one of the Blue Wall states
Speaker 5: of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So I do think they
Speaker 5: have the resources, they have the surrogates they can send
Speaker 5: into these places. I think it's a good idea. And
Speaker 5: remember when she campaigns in Georgia, that means Trump has
Speaker 5: to as well. If one campaign ignores the state, the
Speaker 5: other that is stronger there can do the same. But
Speaker 5: now we're going to make the Trump people spend money
Speaker 5: in time in Georgia as well. So I think it's
Speaker 5: a good investment, all right.
Speaker 2: Matt Bennett, executive vice president at Third Way. Always great
Speaker 2: to have you here on Balance of Power. Thank you
Speaker 2: so much for joining me. That does seem to be
Speaker 2: part of the strategy for both campaigns forced them to
Speaker 2: spend money in places that they may not want to
Speaker 2: or may not have planned to as substantially, it's going
Speaker 2: to be something we continue to follow.
Speaker 1: Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast
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Speaker 2: Back in Washington after a marathon week last week in
Speaker 2: Chicago at the Democratic National Convention, and at that convention,
Speaker 2: the Democrats focused a lot on this notion of freedom,
Speaker 2: freedom when it comes to a number of things, but
Speaker 2: reproductive rights specifically something that entering the conversation. Remember when
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris was accepting the Democratic presidential nomination. In her speech,
Speaker 2: as she was talking about abortion rights, she suggested that
Speaker 2: Trump and Republicans are quote out of their minds when
Speaker 2: it comes to that issue. The question is whether their
Speaker 2: minds can actually change. And perhaps the appearance of JD. Vance,
Speaker 2: of course, the Republican vice presidential nominee on Meet the
Speaker 2: Press yesterday when he talked about abortion. As an indication
Speaker 2: of that, this is what he had to say.
Speaker 6: I can absolutely commit that Kristen and Donald Trump has
Speaker 6: been as clear about that as possible. I think it's
Speaker 6: important to step back and say, what is Donald Trump
Speaker 6: actually said on the abortion question, and how is it
Speaker 6: different from what Kamala Harrison the Democrats have said. Donald
Speaker 6: Trump wants to end this cultural war over this particular topic.
Speaker 6: If excuse me of California wants to have a different
Speaker 6: abortion policy from Ohio, then Ohio has to respect California
Speaker 6: and California has.
Speaker 5: To respect Ohio.
Speaker 6: Donald Trump's view is that we want the individual states
Speaker 6: and their individual cultures and the unique political sensibilities to
Speaker 6: make these decisions.
Speaker 2: Now, what the senator said he could commit to was
Speaker 2: this notion that Donald Trump would not sign into law
Speaker 2: a federal abortion ban. Later on in the program on
Speaker 2: Meet the pet Press, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren joined and
Speaker 2: she said, quote, American women are not stupid, and we
Speaker 2: are not going to trust the futures of our daughters
Speaker 2: and granddaughters to two men who have openly bragged about
Speaker 2: blocking access to abortion for women all across this country.
Speaker 2: It's on this note we assemble our political panel today,
Speaker 2: two women, in fact, Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributor, contributor
Speaker 2: and senior Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study
Speaker 2: of the Presidency and Congress, together today with Republican strategist
Speaker 2: Brittany Martinez, who of course is founder at Espina in Company.
Speaker 2: Thank you both so much for joining me. Genie, we'll
Speaker 2: come to you first because it is worth pointing out
Speaker 2: that during the first Trump administration back in twenty eighteen,
Speaker 2: and I'd like to thank my producer CC for flagging
Speaker 2: this this morning, Donald Trump was encouraging the Senate to
Speaker 2: pass a twenty week abortion band so they could send
Speaker 2: it to his desk for him to sign. Should voters
Speaker 2: believe that he wouldn't pursue something similar this time around,
Speaker 2: or should some kind of evolution on this issue be allowed?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think on both sides, we are hearing the
Speaker 7: sound of everybody desperately trying to run to the center.
Speaker 7: I mean, at the Democratic Convention, we heard the Democrats
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris, it was as if she never ran in
Speaker 7: twenty nineteen, moving right to the center. And we see
Speaker 7: Donald Trump and jd Vance doing this as well, and
Speaker 7: that's what that interview and Meet the Press was all about.
Speaker 7: We've seen Donald Trump screaming on truth social that women
Speaker 7: will be safe. I'm great with women. They love me.
Speaker 7: So they are desperately trying to go to the center
Speaker 7: because Republicans know on this issue of abortion, regardless of
Speaker 7: what you think of it personally, electorally, it has been
Speaker 7: a big problem for Republicans since Roe was overturned. So
Speaker 7: can you trust him? I think Elizabeth Warren suggested, no,
Speaker 7: can do when they've been bragging about it. But the
Speaker 7: reality is he and Kamala Harris are doing what they
Speaker 7: have to do electorally to try to show people that
Speaker 7: they are moderate in the middle and not to worry
Speaker 7: about things that you know, their party and they in
Speaker 7: the past have said and now they are running away
Speaker 7: from So.
Speaker 2: If everybody's rushing to the middle, Brittany, and we include
Speaker 2: the Republican ticket in that, if genius is to be believed,
Speaker 2: does that actually risk backfiring? If Donald Trump is rushing
Speaker 2: toward the middle, or jd Vance is doing so perhaps
Speaker 2: on his behalf to try to attract more moderates, do
Speaker 2: they risk alienating what comprises a decent portion of the
Speaker 2: Republican base, which is pro life, who already were feeling
Speaker 2: like the campaign was kind of betraying them, and for example,
Speaker 2: adopting a policy platform that didn't call explicitly at the
Speaker 2: RNC for a federal abortion band. Does this risk backfiring?
Speaker 2: Is this something that can work?
Speaker 8: I mean, I think that's probably always a possibility. But
Speaker 8: here's what we have to keep in mind. According to
Speaker 8: research excuse me, Pew research pulling from earlier this year,
Speaker 8: sixty three percent of Americans think that abortion should be
Speaker 8: legal in all or in some cases, whereas it's only
Speaker 8: thirty six percent the other way around when you break
Speaker 8: it up by party.
Speaker 9: Obviously Republicans are more.
Speaker 8: Conservative on that issue, of course, but also if you
Speaker 8: look back to earlier this year during the Republican primary,
Speaker 8: Nikki Haley was our best messenger when it came to
Speaker 8: abortion and pro life issues. And I think what you're
Speaker 8: going to see over the next few years is Republicans
Speaker 8: moving more towards those talking points. And yes, of course
Speaker 8: there are those supporters who are very conservative on this issue,
Speaker 8: but I would also say that if you will, if
Speaker 8: you're comfortable getting some of the Republican policies that maybe
Speaker 8: we'll start moving a little bit more progressively rather than
Speaker 8: the Democrats who are way more liberal on this issue.
Speaker 8: I think that those voters are still going to stay
Speaker 8: with the Republicans.
Speaker 3: Well, I do wonder as well.
Speaker 2: And this isn't specific to the abortion issue, but if
Speaker 2: we are allowing which perhaps we should allowing candidates to
Speaker 2: change their tune on various issues, perhaps it's abortion for
Speaker 2: Donald Trump and JD.
Speaker 3: Vance.
Speaker 2: But of course they've been criticizing Kamala Harris on a
Speaker 2: number of flip flops that she has made based on
Speaker 2: as Genie was alluding to what she was campaigning on
Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen in her short lived first presidential run
Speaker 2: versus now, be it on healthcare, be it on fracking,
Speaker 2: for example, something critically important to the swing state of
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania Brittany. Are Republicans still going to be able to
Speaker 2: effectively message that she's a flip flopper on the issues
Speaker 2: if they are doing the same.
Speaker 8: I mean, I think so there is always an argument
Speaker 8: to be made, right and when it comes to this issue,
Speaker 8: I mean, I know we're speaking beyond abortion now as well,
Speaker 8: but she hasn't ran as a presidential candidate in what
Speaker 8: is it five years at this point, and so you
Speaker 8: are allowed to evolve your opinions, I think. But Republicans
Speaker 8: are going to hit on the flip flop. I'm sure
Speaker 8: Democrats will hit on the flip flop. Whoever is able
Speaker 8: to kind of trate the message to Americans in the
Speaker 8: best way, they're the ones who are going to be
Speaker 8: the most successful.
Speaker 9: I mean, it's a messaging game at the end of
Speaker 9: the day.
Speaker 2: Well, and it's also about where you take that message.
Speaker 2: Of course, we're going to see both of these candidates
Speaker 2: and the tickets as a whole crisscrossing the swing states today,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump going or not today but this week in
Speaker 2: Michigan and Pennsylvania. Harrison Walls will be on a bus
Speaker 2: tour of Georgia later this week. But Jeanie There has
Speaker 2: been reporting over the course of the last few days
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump's getting ready to rev things up. He
Speaker 2: is going to be much more active on the campaign
Speaker 2: trail as he's worried about losing ground to Harris. Is
Speaker 2: it better or worse for the Harris campaign to see
Speaker 2: more of Donald Trump? Knowing that in a number of
Speaker 2: appearances recently he has lost discipline and is focusing more
Speaker 2: on personal attacks than on policy issues. Does him actually
Speaker 2: being out there more help Harris or hurt her?
Speaker 7: You know, I have always been of the opinion that
Speaker 7: the more Trump, the better for the Democrats, particularly because
Speaker 7: he just is so undisciplined, you know, his campaign. Most
Speaker 7: Republicans want him to address the issues. On most issues,
Speaker 7: he has a very good record that appeals to people.
Speaker 7: When you talk about the economy, when you talk about immigration,
Speaker 7: when you talk about crime, most people trust him on
Speaker 7: those things. And yet he goes to these rallies and
Speaker 7: he says, do you want me to talk about personal
Speaker 7: issues or the issues topical issues? And they scream personal issues,
Speaker 7: and then he goes on the attack, and so he
Speaker 7: robs himself of the ability to be disciplined and to
Speaker 7: take Harrison on all those issues that you and Brittany
Speaker 7: were just talking about, from cracking and energy all the
Speaker 7: way through to the economy, taxes and everything else. So
Speaker 7: I think if he is out there in these big
Speaker 7: rallies and he is his old, undisciplined self, it is
Speaker 7: better for Harris. By the same token, I was surprised
Speaker 7: Harris was off the campaign trail after her very good convention,
Speaker 7: I thought, very much like Tim Waltz said, you can
Speaker 7: sleep when you're dead. You've got to be out there
Speaker 7: when the this type. I guess she was preparing for
Speaker 7: the debate, but I think she has got to be
Speaker 7: out there. But for her, it's got to be out
Speaker 7: there talking to reporters and answering some tough questions. So
Speaker 7: I think they both have challenges on either side.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, Jeanie to that point, didn't she say that
Speaker 2: before the month of August was out she was going
Speaker 2: to sit down for one of those big interviews. We
Speaker 2: don't know of anything on the books yet.
Speaker 7: Yeah, nothing we've heard of. I keep hearing it's going
Speaker 7: to be this week and everybody, and I'm sure you, Kayley,
Speaker 7: have bitt it on come talk to us. Everybody is
Speaker 7: asking her to come talk to them. We don't know
Speaker 7: where she'll be, but I really believe she's got to
Speaker 7: get out there in a tough interview sooner rather than later.
Speaker 2: Yes, again, and I will repeat this every chance I get.
Speaker 2: Vice President Harris, you have a standing invitation to join
Speaker 2: us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Of course, the
Speaker 2: Republican ticket does as well, we'd love to talk to
Speaker 2: any of you as where you're now just ten weeks
Speaker 2: out from the election, so Jeannie or Britney.
Speaker 3: Rather to the point Genie was just making.
Speaker 2: Going back to Donald Trump being more active on the trail,
Speaker 2: this idea that he has lacked discipline or perhaps is
Speaker 2: being very disciplined, and he's shucking off the advice of
Speaker 2: his advisors and doing exactly the opposite of what it
Speaker 2: seems they're telling him to do. If you were on
Speaker 2: that team, and I know you're no fan of Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: but you are a Republican strategist, how do they work
Speaker 2: around the candidate here? What is the best way for
Speaker 2: the campaign, the enterprise of it, to move forward over
Speaker 2: the course of the next ten weeks.
Speaker 8: I love how you put that he is very disciplined
Speaker 8: of being undisciplined.
Speaker 9: I've never heard that before. It's brilliant.
Speaker 8: Yes, you know, and even we've kind of seen the
Speaker 8: contradictionary over the weekend right where they're trying to push
Speaker 8: back on like no no mikes during the breaks on
Speaker 8: and he was, you know, on films saying like, oh
Speaker 8: I don't care, like we can have him on, but
Speaker 8: like but I don't it.
Speaker 9: Doesn't matter to me. I'll do whatever that is not helpful.
Speaker 8: I mean, I guess that's all you can keep doing
Speaker 8: is pushing that messaging and trying to stay in control
Speaker 8: of like the social media, the truth of the Twitter,
Speaker 8: those sorts of things.
Speaker 9: But this is what you have to keep in mind.
Speaker 8: People love, like what Genie said earlier about the personal
Speaker 8: tax they love that stuff. The magabase loves that. We
Speaker 8: have seen him be a little bit more disciplined and
Speaker 8: stick to the script in the binder. But what you
Speaker 8: lose in that is his enthusiasm and vigor that you
Speaker 8: see during the tax. I mean, it feels like a
Speaker 8: five year old who has been told by his teacher
Speaker 8: that he has to speak during the school assembly and
Speaker 8: he just doesn't want to. So as little time in
Speaker 8: those long winded press conferences as possible, trying to take
Speaker 8: control of the Twitter, and you know, trying to have
Speaker 8: to shift back to messaging when Trump ultimately inevitably doesn't
Speaker 8: say what he should be saying.
Speaker 2: Well, So, Genie, is that why we're seeing the Harris
Speaker 2: campaign push for Mike's live during the debate on September tenth,
Speaker 2: not follow the rules of the Biden Trump debate that
Speaker 2: we saw on June twenty seventh, where their mics were
Speaker 2: cut off after their time was up. They want his
Speaker 2: mic on because they're hoping he slips up.
Speaker 7: Right, Absolutely, I think they would love nothing more than
Speaker 7: a repeat of the first debate in twenty twenty. I
Speaker 7: don't know if my hurt can take it, but I
Speaker 7: think that's what they're going for. And to Britney's point,
Speaker 7: the juxtaposition here is just incredible. Donald Trump on the
Speaker 7: teleprompter looks like he is a hostage somewhere, whereas Kamala Harris,
Speaker 7: they say, can't get her off the teleprompter. So we
Speaker 7: have two very different candidates. And boy, the Democrats want
Speaker 7: him on that mic saying anything outrageous they can get
Speaker 7: him to say for that debate, if there is a debate.
Speaker 7: I should add.
Speaker 3: Well that at this hour is the big if.
Speaker 2: Brittany, We'll talk more about this in the next hour
Speaker 2: when you'll be back with us. But Donald Trump suggesting
Speaker 2: maybe he's not going to show up on that ABC
Speaker 2: debate on September tenth, do you buy it?
Speaker 3: Is he going to miss that opportunity.
Speaker 9: I think he'll be there.
Speaker 8: I think he's just a showman, and he likes to
Speaker 8: exploit the narrative, and so I think he'll be there.
Speaker 8: But he's just using this time to sort of, you know,
Speaker 8: get under people's skin.
Speaker 9: Maybe, but he'll be.
Speaker 3: There all right.
Speaker 6: Well.
Speaker 2: Brittany Martinez Espina and Company founder and Republican strategist, and
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanze, no Bloomberg Politics contributor and Senior Democracy Fellow
Speaker 2: at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.
Speaker 3: Thank you both.
Speaker 2: Of course, I'll have much more with both Jeanie and
Speaker 2: Brittany next hours. We continue to keep our eye on
Speaker 2: the campaign trail and of course on the money as well.
Speaker 2: As we have told you this hour, Kamala Harris has
Speaker 2: crossed the half a billion dollar fundraising mark five hundred
Speaker 2: and forty million dollars to be exact, and her presidential
Speaker 2: campaign is only five weeks old. At this point, It's
Speaker 2: only been five weeks since Shoe Biden left the race.
Speaker 2: This is a fast moving campaign. Something tells me the
Speaker 2: next ten weeks are going to move even faster. We're
Speaker 2: just seventy days out. Everyone from this election will continue
Speaker 2: to have full coverage of it for you here on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg and of course it's not just our political panel
Speaker 2: that will help us be covering that. Will speak next
Speaker 2: hour to Samara Klar of the University of Arizona. Take
Speaker 2: a specific look at that swing state in the Sun
Speaker 2: Belt that it does seem Kamala Harris and Tim Walls
Speaker 2: are targeting more of and we'll keep an eye on
Speaker 2: the Middle East as well. In the next hour, I'll
Speaker 2: be joined by Natasha Hall at the Center for Strategic
Speaker 2: and International Studies. As Israel launched preemptive strikes against Hesbula
Speaker 2: in Lebanon over the weekend, so much more is still ahead.
Speaker 2: In the second hour, A Balance of Power.
Speaker 3: Stick with us.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play
Speaker 1: and then Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen
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Speaker 1: live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Does feel like a huge part of the city today
Speaker 2: is still in recovery mode, trying to catch back up
Speaker 2: on sleep and recharge after last week's very busy Democratic
Speaker 2: National Convention in Chicago. Certainly an energetic event, I think
Speaker 2: it's fair to say, and also one that proved to
Speaker 2: be quite the boon in terms of the money game
Speaker 2: for Kamala. Harrison affiliated super packs eighty two million dollars
Speaker 2: raise last week alone, and that brings their total hall,
Speaker 2: according to the campaign, to five hundred and forty million
Speaker 2: dollars since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. That
Speaker 2: of course happened just five weeks ago. We are talking
Speaker 2: a frenetic pace of fundraising here that is basically unmatched
Speaker 2: in modern political history. And the campaign, of course is
Speaker 2: ongoing now with just seven weeks to go until election
Speaker 2: day and two weeks until a presidential debate that we
Speaker 2: think is still on, even though Donald Trump is casting
Speaker 2: a little bit of doubt on that within the last
Speaker 2: twenty four hours. So here it cover it all for us.
Speaker 2: As Laura Davisson, she is Bloomberg a politics editor and
Speaker 2: is here with me in studio on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: So if we could just begin with the money, because
Speaker 2: of course that is crucially important in a race that
Speaker 2: is probably going to turn out to be very, very expensive.
Speaker 2: We were talking about before Joe Biden dropped out of
Speaker 2: the race, how Donald Trump is actually the one that
Speaker 2: was turning out to have the bigger cash advantage. Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris has been able to flip that script in a
Speaker 2: very short period of time. The question is can this
Speaker 2: keep going or is she about to tap everything she
Speaker 2: was going to tap and perhaps tap it too soon.
Speaker 10: It's unlikely she's tapped everything she has to tap, you know,
Speaker 10: particularly as she continues to rise in the polls. Donors
Speaker 10: like to bet on winners and continue to spend when
Speaker 10: they see signs that their investment is doing something. But
Speaker 10: just the number five hundred and forty million dollars, that
Speaker 10: is a huge figure. Biden's twenty twenty campaign raised just
Speaker 10: over a billion dollars, So just in the span of
Speaker 10: one month, she's raised more than fifty percent of what
Speaker 10: Biden raised in the course of an entire campaign, when
Speaker 10: there was a lot of money, there was a lot
Speaker 10: of interest, there was a lot of enthusiasm behind Biden
Speaker 10: at that time. So it's just a really incredible amount
Speaker 10: of money that she's brought in the door and Trump
Speaker 10: has not been able to match that at all. He's
Speaker 10: been raising kind of what a normal campaign was somewhere
Speaker 10: around you know, one hundred, one hundred and fifty million
Speaker 10: dollars a month and she's at you know, over five
Speaker 10: hundred million.
Speaker 2: Well, and it's not just the actual dollar figures that
Speaker 2: her campaign is touting.
Speaker 3: It's people too.
Speaker 2: This notion that two hundred thousand volunteers have signed up.
Speaker 2: How powerful is that that is not just the ability
Speaker 2: to buy ad space on the airwaves, also get people
Speaker 2: to knock on doors and to actually do some of
Speaker 2: the groundworking that might be necessary to turn people out.
Speaker 10: That's incredibly helpful. We'll get out the vote type efforts.
Speaker 10: It also you know, and this is something they talked
Speaker 10: a lot about at the convention. If if you have people
Speaker 10: who are enthusiastic and excited, they're talking about it with
Speaker 10: their friends, they're talking about it with their family and
Speaker 10: making sure people have a plan to vote and actually
Speaker 10: go vote on election day, that's the enthusiasm that really
Speaker 10: kind of helps. You know, Remember, these elections are going
Speaker 10: to be decided by ten thousand votes in some of
Speaker 10: the key swing states, so you know, having you know,
Speaker 10: certain communities that make sure that you know, elderly relatives
Speaker 10: have a way to get to the polls that can
Speaker 10: make a difference.
Speaker 2: Well, and as we talk about the swing states, about
Speaker 2: Harrison Walls will be in Georgia on a bus tour
Speaker 2: later this week. Donald Trump himself will be kind of
Speaker 2: criss crossing. He was in Virginia earlier today. He's going
Speaker 2: to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania this week as well,
Speaker 2: And all of the reporting indicates that he's getting ready
Speaker 2: to ramp things up in a pretty material way, that
Speaker 2: he's going to be spending more time on the trail,
Speaker 2: perhaps less time at his properties, be it in Florida
Speaker 2: or New Jersey. Laura, I would imagine it's no coincidence
Speaker 2: that that's coming at a time where Harris is raising
Speaker 2: so much money and rising at least from where Joe
Speaker 2: Biden was in polls. How how is Donald Trump planning
Speaker 2: to counter this? Is it literally just getting out there
Speaker 2: and going to the states themselves.
Speaker 3: That's that's one of his strategies, you know.
Speaker 10: He you know, up until you know, about two or
Speaker 10: three weeks ago, had been doing one or two events
Speaker 10: a week. Last week he did something like seven or
Speaker 10: eight events a week. So he's really seeing that, you know,
Speaker 10: having a younger opponent, having both Harris and Walls who
Speaker 10: are out there on the campaign trail and doing multiple
Speaker 10: events a day. He's got to be able to match that.
Speaker 10: There's also some concerns sort of among his staff that
Speaker 10: having him at mar A Lago or at Bedminster, you know,
Speaker 10: just golfing and stewing too much is also a problem.
Speaker 10: They want to get him out there in front of voters,
Speaker 10: though they're changing a strategy a little bit. They're not
Speaker 10: doing some of the big, big rallies that he's done before,
Speaker 10: partially because those are really expensive. That also they want
Speaker 10: to keep him on message, so they're doing smaller events,
Speaker 10: you know, at manufacturing plants, you know, at sheriff's office,
Speaker 10: to talk about the border, to talk about the economy.
Speaker 10: That hasn't you know, worked exactly the way they wanted to.
Speaker 10: He's still been, you know, talking about the personal attacks.
Speaker 10: Even one rally last week he pulled the crowd and said, hey,
Speaker 10: if you want me to focus on the personal attacks
Speaker 10: or not, and you know, had the crowd cheer for
Speaker 10: which option they preferred, and the applause was way louder
Speaker 10: for you know, continuing on the personal insults.
Speaker 2: Yeah, perhaps it's more entertaining. And I take your point
Speaker 2: about them not wanting to see or them being his
Speaker 2: staffers and those advising him not wanting to see him
Speaker 2: just hold up in one place doing for too long.
Speaker 2: But also, isn't there kind of an argument to be
Speaker 2: made that the more Trump is out there, the higher
Speaker 2: likelihood it is that he goes off script, that he
Speaker 2: loses that discipline, Like some of the moments may not
Speaker 2: be so positive that he's generating.
Speaker 3: That is true.
Speaker 10: However, he can also be on true social all day
Speaker 10: and night, you know, making some of those same things.
Speaker 10: So even one of the remarks that got the most
Speaker 10: pick up over the weekend was him talking about how
Speaker 10: he's going to be a champion for women's reproductive rights.
Speaker 3: Yes you're reading that.
Speaker 10: You might think, oh, this sounds like a Democrat. No,
Speaker 10: this is Donald Trump who is now deciding he wants
Speaker 10: to pivot his messaging on abortion. This is both of
Speaker 10: course outraging Democrats who say, wait, this is our issue.
Speaker 10: You know, Donald Trump doesn't support this, as well as
Speaker 10: allies saying, hey, I thought this was the pro life
Speaker 10: Republican Party. What happened to that?
Speaker 2: Well, and Jadie Vance on Meet the Press on Sunday
Speaker 2: suggested that Donald Trump would not sign into law a
Speaker 2: federal ban on abortion, despite what Donald Trump said he
Speaker 2: would do when he was actually president back in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren later came on the program and said women
Speaker 2: don't trust Trump Advance on that issue effectively. But Jade
Speaker 2: Advance did sit down for that interview. Kamala Harris, as
Speaker 2: the Trump Advance ticket, will be very quick to point out,
Speaker 2: has not yet done so. She said she would do it,
Speaker 2: but the month of August being over, this is the
Speaker 2: last week of August. Laura, do we have any idea
Speaker 2: when this is going to happen.
Speaker 10: We have not had any indication that this is going
Speaker 10: to happen. She's also said she sit down with the
Speaker 10: National Association of Black Journalists. That's another group that you know,
Speaker 10: Trump made a lot of headlines and you know when
Speaker 10: he went in front of them. So the time is
Speaker 10: is sort of now for her to you know, schedule
Speaker 10: something to show, hey, look, I can have these unscripted moments.
Speaker 3: It's also might behoove.
Speaker 10: Her because she's got this debate allegedly on September tenth.
Speaker 3: We'll see if it happens.
Speaker 10: There's been a little bit of back and forth between
Speaker 10: the camps today on whether this will actually come to fruition.
Speaker 10: But it's a good test, you know, having to go
Speaker 10: out there and get pressured on what maybe some weak
Speaker 10: points for the campaign.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you brought that up, because Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: of course appeared to be watching ABC News yesterday didn't
Speaker 2: necessarily like what he saw. He was on True Social
Speaker 2: suggesting why would I debate on this network?
Speaker 3: Then we understood that there was a bit of.
Speaker 2: An issue happening between the two camps as to whether
Speaker 2: or not the microphone should be hot the whole time
Speaker 2: or cut off after your time was up, as we
Speaker 2: saw on June twenty seventh when Biden and Trump debated.
Speaker 3: Are these real sticking points that realistically.
Speaker 2: Could result in this debate not happening, though Laura, is
Speaker 2: either candidate going to be willing to give up the
Speaker 2: opportunity to address each other and the American people on
Speaker 2: stage two weeks from now.
Speaker 10: It's highly unclear if this debate is going to happen.
Speaker 10: Harris seems more committed to it, and in fact, she
Speaker 10: wants Trump's mike to be unmuted throughout the entire time.
Speaker 10: Remember the Biden camp one of the exact opposite. They
Speaker 10: wanted the mics to be muted. Now it's Trump's side
Speaker 10: that wants them to be muted. So it's a little bit,
Speaker 10: you know, both sides are kind of flip flopping back
Speaker 10: on the rules. You know, it seems like Trump personally
Speaker 10: is the one who is more concerned about being out there.
Speaker 10: Said he wouldn't debate, then he said he wanted debate,
Speaker 10: and now he's saying won't debate.
Speaker 3: We'll see.
Speaker 10: Harris has said she's going to show up on September tenth,
Speaker 10: no matter what, we'll see.
Speaker 3: That's just two weeks away, it is, indeed, so we'll see. Indeed.
Speaker 2: Laura Davison, who of course is an editor of politics
Speaker 2: for US here at Bloomberg, thank you so much for
Speaker 2: joining me. And an issue that likely would come up
Speaker 2: in the debate and came up at the Democratic National
Speaker 2: Convention as well of the ongoing war in Gaza between
Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas. Harris did make reference to that in
Speaker 2: her acceptance speech, as she said that she and Biden
Speaker 2: are working toward a ceasfire deal, but also said that
Speaker 2: ultimately what she wants to see is freedom and security
Speaker 2: and self determination for the Palestinian people. That was a
Speaker 2: phrase or a sentence that got loud roars and applause
Speaker 2: from the crowd gathered there in Chicago. I would point
Speaker 2: out as well that there were not as disruptive protests
Speaker 2: in Chicago a pro to Palestinian protesters as some feared
Speaker 2: going into it. All that said, things continue in the
Speaker 2: Middle East to catch our attention, including this weekend Israel
Speaker 2: launching what it described as a preemptive strike against Hesbola
Speaker 2: targets in southern Lebanon. This is, of course, as we
Speaker 2: were all waiting for retaliation from both Hesbelon potentially Iran
Speaker 2: itself for the assassinations of a Hesblah commander Antamas's political
Speaker 2: leader in Tehran last month. So for more on this,
Speaker 2: we turned to Natasha Hall. She is a senior fellow
Speaker 2: with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic
Speaker 2: and International Studies. Natasha, it's a lot to discuss, but
Speaker 2: if we could first focus on the strikes Israel conducted
Speaker 2: over the weekend. They described them as preemptive, but were
Speaker 2: they also escalatory.
Speaker 11: That's a great question. I mean, what Israel ended up
Speaker 11: saying was that these were preemptive strikes, that they had
Speaker 11: gotten word or they had gotten intelligence that Hezbulah was
Speaker 11: about to launch a major attack, and that this preemptive
Speaker 11: strike sort of preempted this attack from Hezbullah, which would
Speaker 11: have launched thousands of rockets into Israel. We still saw
Speaker 11: attacks from Hesbulah hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel,
Speaker 11: and they were meant to target a military base within
Speaker 11: Israel itself, at least according to Hesbalah sources. And so
Speaker 11: there was a very very heightened escalation in the early
Speaker 11: morning hours of Sunday. But it's unclear if this was
Speaker 11: escalatory or not, but military analysts are saying that this
Speaker 11: was essentially effective in terms of deterrence.
Speaker 2: Okay, So if it was effective deterrence, is it effective
Speaker 2: at deterring more than just what was understood to be
Speaker 2: an eminent strike by Israeli intelligence? And by that I
Speaker 2: mean if they were specifically going after Hesbela missile launchers.
Speaker 2: Did it take out enough capability that Hesbelah poses less
Speaker 2: of a threat to Israel now if it decides it
Speaker 2: wants to try retaliation again.
Speaker 11: Well, I mean Hesbela is one of the is the
Speaker 11: best armed non state actor perhaps in the world. So
Speaker 11: it has hundreds of thousands of drones and rockets, so
Speaker 11: this doesn't necessarily wipe up out their capabilities, and they've
Speaker 11: been able to rebuild their capabilities quite quickly with the
Speaker 11: support of Iran. So I wouldn't say that this is
Speaker 11: a long term deterrent strategy, but what it was was
Speaker 11: a way for both Israel and has Blah to say
Speaker 11: that they did something in the aftermath of the assassination
Speaker 11: of Hasbalah leader of Wad Shukur late last month, and
Speaker 11: also HEMS leader Ismailhaniya and Tehran that said, Iran still
Speaker 11: has not conducted its retaliatory at strike for that assassination
Speaker 11: the way that they had promised to. So it's unclear
Speaker 11: if this is a peace for the long run or
Speaker 11: if this is just a momentary pause at the moment,
Speaker 11: most people believe it could be just a momentary pause,
Speaker 11: but at least long enough for people to go back
Speaker 11: to their normal lives.
Speaker 2: Well, and so this notion about Iran potentially deciding to
Speaker 2: take retaliatory measures itself. When we saw Iran launch the
Speaker 2: attempted strikes on Israel back in April, the drones and
Speaker 2: the missiles that were largely intercepted, everybody said, well, Iran
Speaker 2: didkind of telegraph what it was going to do and
Speaker 2: sending those slow drones first, so there was warning that
Speaker 2: it was coming. Now, Israeli intelligence picked up that Hesbelo
Speaker 2: was getting ready to strike and tried to counteract that
Speaker 2: before it even could happen. Does that suggest that Iran
Speaker 2: potentially is going to trying to avoid that same ending
Speaker 2: try to actually land a blow against Israel this time?
Speaker 9: It's possible.
Speaker 11: I mean, it would make them extremely vulnerable to a
Speaker 11: wide scale attack by Israel. We now have two US
Speaker 11: carrier strike groups in the Middle East at the moment,
Speaker 11: but it's difficult to remain on high alert for a
Speaker 11: very long time, and so it's probably Iran's strategy to
Speaker 11: wait this out a little bit until that high alert
Speaker 11: kind of diminishes. And that's an effective strategy as well,
Speaker 11: because if they can connect it to the failure of
Speaker 11: ceasefire talks, which we haven't discussed yet, but ceasefire talks
Speaker 11: remain ongoing, but without any kind of conclusion. In fact,
Speaker 11: there's been an escalation in Gaza of Israeli attacks there,
Speaker 11: so Iran would could effectively point to that failure and
Speaker 11: the assassination attempt in the weeks ahead when it goes
Speaker 11: ahead with some kind of retaliatory strike, but it needs
Speaker 11: to be careful because it does not have the competitive
Speaker 11: edge the way that Israel does well.
Speaker 2: Natasha, I do want to talk about those ceasefire talks,
Speaker 2: especially given the description we got on the progress from
Speaker 2: Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor who spoke in Canada
Speaker 2: over this weekend.
Speaker 3: Take a listen.
Speaker 12: It is incumbent on all parties in the region to
Speaker 12: work towards de escalation and stability, and so we are
Speaker 12: feverishly working in Cairo as we speak with our team
Speaker 12: and the teams of the other mediators as well as
Speaker 12: with the Israelis to get to a ceasefire and hostage deal.
Speaker 2: Natasha, does it feel to you like all of this
Speaker 2: feverish work is going somewhere.
Speaker 11: It seems like there's feverish work to prevent a regional escalation,
Speaker 11: and there's certainly diplomats that are working on the ground
Speaker 11: NonStop on these talks. But we've been talking about the
Speaker 11: same sticking points in these ceasefire negotiations for months now,
Speaker 11: and some of that is the control of the Philadelphi Corridor,
Speaker 11: which lands between Gaza and Egypt and the Netserene Corridor,
Speaker 11: which is sort of halfway between the Gaza strip. But
Speaker 11: in the meantime, Israel has ordered an evacuation of areas
Speaker 11: previously described as humanitarian areas, and this is after people
Speaker 11: have been displaced dozens and dozens of times, and we
Speaker 11: have reports of polio breaking out in Gaza. So this
Speaker 11: feverish diplomacy that we've been hearing about for months seems
Speaker 11: to be delayed. Hamas has left Cairo, where the negotiations
Speaker 11: were happening, saying that they resented the fact that Israel
Speaker 11: was trying to change the stipulations of previous potential agreements
Speaker 11: in July. So it remains to be seen. I think Metnyahu,
Speaker 11: the Prime Minister of Israel, also has to deal with
Speaker 11: multiple constituents, those on the far right who refuse any
Speaker 11: kind of ceasefire negotiations, and the rest of the country,
Speaker 11: which frankly wants a pause to this fighting.
Speaker 2: And Natasha, we just have a minute left. But I
Speaker 2: do wonder about the role of the US here and
Speaker 2: whether it continually is getting ahead of itself. Joe Biden
Speaker 2: at the end of May outlined this multi step plan,
Speaker 2: saying that this was the agreement in parties just needed
Speaker 2: to sign off. It obviously didn't happen. They're still working
Speaker 2: on the same framework now than Anthony Blincoln last week
Speaker 2: suggested Israel has agreed to this, making it seem like
Speaker 2: the finish line was in sight, and yet it very
Speaker 2: clearly is not. Does the US need to stop trying
Speaker 2: to paint this as more done than it is in public?
Speaker 11: I think their strategy has been trying to push Natanyahu
Speaker 11: by going public with these kinds of agreements and make
Speaker 11: it seem essentially inevitable that there's a ceasefire agreement in place.
Speaker 11: And of course there's political reasons for this as well.
Speaker 11: We have a presidential election very soon, and so getting
Speaker 11: a ceasefire agreement or acting like a ceasefire agreement is imminent,
Speaker 11: is in their political interests. But it remains to be
Speaker 11: seen if there is an actual sort of military pressure
Speaker 11: put on Israel by the United States, if Israel would
Speaker 11: actually agree to this nnya who has a lot of
Speaker 11: political considerations which would potentially prevent him from doing so,
Speaker 11: And so if there isn't more pressure applied there, it
Speaker 11: remains to be seen if there will be any kind
Speaker 11: of substantive ceasefire agreement in the upcoming weeks.
Speaker 2: All right, Natasha, thanks as always for joining us. Natasha Hall,
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center
Speaker 2: for Strategic and International Studies. Always appreciate your insight. Thank
Speaker 2: you for joining us. Right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: It's a week in which we will see the presidential
Speaker 2: tickets crisscrossing a number of the swing states that ultimately
Speaker 2: could decide the outcome of this election. Donald Trump and
Speaker 2: Jade Vance will be in Michigan and Pennsylvania this week,
Speaker 2: while Kamala Harris and Tim Walls later on this week
Speaker 2: will be in Georgia doing a bus tour of the state.
Speaker 2: Interesting to see the Harris Walls ticket focusing their time
Speaker 2: in the week after the Democratic National Convention in the
Speaker 2: Sun Belt. Georgia of course, is part of that, as
Speaker 2: are other states, including North Carolina and Arizona, where Harris
Speaker 2: is pulling better than Joe Biden was when he left
Speaker 2: the race just five weeks ago. So it's to the
Speaker 2: sun Sun Belt we go.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 3: Samara Klar is with me.
Speaker 2: She is a professor of public policy and government at
Speaker 2: the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy. Rather,
Speaker 2: Samara is always great to have you as we look
Speaker 2: specifically at Arizona, and of course we look back to
Speaker 2: the New York Times Ciana pol that came out last
Speaker 2: weekend that showed Harris at fifty and Trump at forty five.
Speaker 2: Do you buy that? Do you buy that something has
Speaker 2: fundamentally changed to put a state that seemed frankly out
Speaker 2: of play for Joe Biden in play and potentially looking
Speaker 2: like Kamala Harris could lock it up.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean sure, I absolutely buy it. You know,
Speaker 13: before there was the switch to Harris. I don't think
Speaker 13: we should overstate how dramatic this change has been. Biden
Speaker 13: did win Arizona in twenty twenty. Of course, previous to
Speaker 13: him stepping aside, he was down in the polls, but
Speaker 13: typically that by about four ish five percentage points, So
Speaker 13: it wasn't landslide blowout pulling in Trump's favor, And I
Speaker 13: would say the same thing. Now, Trump is still ahead
Speaker 13: in Arizona in some poles, the poll u site has
Speaker 13: Harris ahead by about four or so percentage points, so
Speaker 13: not quite outside the margin of error. So, you know,
Speaker 13: we started off with a really tight race in Arizona,
Speaker 13: and what we have today is a really tight race
Speaker 13: in Arizona.
Speaker 2: Well that's fair, and I wonder about the demographics who
Speaker 2: ultimately will decide that race one way or another. While
Speaker 2: I was in Chicago last week tomorrow, we spoke with
Speaker 2: the head of the Hispanic Federation, others who look specifically
Speaker 2: at the Latino vote as well, who have suggested that
Speaker 2: they have seen a serious increase in enthusiasm or at
Speaker 2: least interest in this race since Harris became the nominee
Speaker 2: instead of Joe Biden. Is it the Latino vote that
Speaker 2: will matter most in Arizona or is it another group
Speaker 2: we should be watching more carefully?
Speaker 13: The Latino votes should not be you know, it cannot
Speaker 13: be overstated. In Arizona, we have a large and growing
Speaker 13: proportion of our electorate who are Latino. We have a
Speaker 13: lot of young voters voting for the first time, So
Speaker 13: Latino voters matter, youth vote matters. The urbanization of Arizona,
Speaker 13: where we have voters moving from rural areas into urban
Speaker 13: areas and voting for the first time. We of course
Speaker 13: have a lot of domestic migration into Arizona. So there's
Speaker 13: a lot of important groups out here in Arizona, and
Speaker 13: any one of them could make the difference because our
Speaker 13: electoral outcomes here are so razor thin. In Arizona do
Speaker 13: typically support Democrats at higher rates about two.
Speaker 14: To one, But there's a lot of political diversity.
Speaker 13: I always say Latuto's are not a monolithic voting block
Speaker 13: by any stretch of the imagination, and both parties should
Speaker 13: and can make a concerted appeal for their support.
Speaker 2: Well certainly, and as you talk about first time voters
Speaker 2: within that group, the Harris campaign is also pointing to
Speaker 2: first time donors that have made contributions to their campaign.
Speaker 2: In just the five weeks since it launched, since Joe
Speaker 2: Biden drop it out of the race, they say they've
Speaker 2: raised five hundred and forty million dollars in total between
Speaker 2: the campaign and affiliated super packs. They say one third
Speaker 2: of that are first time donors. Two thirds of the
Speaker 2: total Samara are women, And I wonder if we consider
Speaker 2: demographic groups here, how you are watching women in particular
Speaker 2: in Arizona and frankly elsewhere.
Speaker 13: Harris is the beneficiary of a widening gender gap in
Speaker 13: Arizona and across the country, where women are supporting Harris
Speaker 13: at much higher rates than they appeared to have been
Speaker 13: supporting Joe Biden. And that is especially true among the
Speaker 13: youngest generations and eighteen to twenty nine year olds voting
Speaker 13: for the first time, donating for the first time. Those
Speaker 13: women are showing really unprecedented levels of support for a
Speaker 13: Democratic nominee at this point in the race. So I think,
Speaker 13: you know, a lot of that, you know, attracts with
Speaker 13: what we're seeing in the polls, with young women coming
Speaker 13: out and supporting Harris at vastly higher levels than they
Speaker 13: had been supporting Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: Well, and of course women's rights, reproductive rights specifically was
Speaker 2: a big focus of conversation on the stage and elsewhere
Speaker 2: in Chicago last week. At the DNC Kamala Harris specifically
Speaker 2: talked about reproductive rights. At one point in her acceptance speech,
Speaker 2: talked about what Republicans and Donald Trump want to do
Speaker 2: on abortion and called them simply out of their mind.
Speaker 3: So that was a direct quote Samara.
Speaker 2: But it does seem that the Republican ticket is trying
Speaker 2: to reshape at least its stance on abortion or message
Speaker 2: it differently, including the vice presidential nominee sennittor jd Vance,
Speaker 2: who sat down for an interview on Meet the Press
Speaker 2: this weekend, was asked whether or not Donald Trump would
Speaker 2: sign a federal abortion ban into law.
Speaker 3: This was his answer.
Speaker 6: Absolutely commit that, Kristen Donald Trump has been as clear
Speaker 6: about that as possible. I think it's important to step
Speaker 6: back and say, what is Donald Trump actually said on
Speaker 6: the abortion question, and how is it different from what
Speaker 6: Kamala Harrison the Democrats have said. Donald Trump wants to
Speaker 6: end this cultural war over this particular topic. If excuse me,
Speaker 6: California wants to have a different abortion policy from Ohio,
Speaker 6: then Ohio has to respect California and California has to
Speaker 6: respect Ohio. Donald Trump's view is that we want the
Speaker 6: individual states and their individual cultures and their unique political
Speaker 6: sensibilities to make these decisions.
Speaker 2: And I should be clear what he said he could
Speaker 2: commit to. Was Donald Trump not signing a federal abortion ban, Samara,
Speaker 2: despite the fact that when Trump was president back in
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, he was pushing the Senate to pass a
Speaker 2: twenty week ban on abortion, get it to his desk
Speaker 2: so that he could sign it. Are American voters going
Speaker 2: to buy that he thinks differently now in a post
Speaker 2: row world.
Speaker 13: Well, this has been a really big pivot for a
Speaker 13: lot of Republican candidates. We're seeing is Americans generally do
Speaker 13: not favorable or bands, and support for reproductive rights.
Speaker 14: Has been really high, even in red states.
Speaker 13: So Republican candidates from Donald Trump down to here in Arizona,
Speaker 13: Carrie Lake once Isca money, they've all been trying to
Speaker 13: figure out how they can amend their views, change their views,
Speaker 13: whoever you want to think about it, to better suit
Speaker 13: the American people. Seems where Republicans have landed is on
Speaker 13: sort of leaving it to the people to decide, trying
Speaker 13: to step away from it altogether. And here in Arizona,
Speaker 13: we do have abortion on the ballot in November, and
Speaker 13: it's going to be a huge motivator for a lot
Speaker 13: of pro choice voters who say that abortion is more
Speaker 13: important to them than what we typically see pro life
Speaker 13: voter seeing, so to restate that pro choice voters say
Speaker 13: abortion is more important than pro life voters do. So
Speaker 13: it's more of a mobilizing, mobilizing issue that could help
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris in Arizona and in other states across the country.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I'm glad you raised that point tomorrow, because,
Speaker 2: of course, since Rowe was overturned, since the Dobs decision,
Speaker 2: we have seen abortion literally on the ballot in a
Speaker 2: number of states, and voters overwhelmingly in each of those
Speaker 2: instances have voted to protect abortion rights and have done
Speaker 2: so in frankly high numbers. So, as you were alluding
Speaker 2: to before the fact that things are always really really
Speaker 2: close in Arizona, these are always very tight races, is
Speaker 2: the fact that abortion is also going to be on
Speaker 2: that ballot in addition to the senatorial candidates to the
Speaker 2: presidential candidates. Could that potentially be the thing that makes
Speaker 2: or breaks who wins.
Speaker 14: Absolutely.
Speaker 13: I mean, we have abortion on the ballot that's going
Speaker 13: to be very mobilizing and will probably help not only
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris but down ballot democrats as well. We also
Speaker 13: have an immigration measure on the ballot which provides the Arizona,
Speaker 13: Arizona State of Arizona with more power to enforce immigration
Speaker 13: here at the state level, that could potentially help Republican candidates.
Speaker 14: And so we are seeing this sort of tension between.
Speaker 13: A ballot measure that favors the Democrats and a ballot
Speaker 13: measure that favors the Republicans. We'll see how these two
Speaker 13: ballot measures eventually balance out. But I mean anything in
Speaker 13: a state like this, where things are so close, it's
Speaker 13: hard for me to say that there's anything that couldn't
Speaker 13: make a difference.
Speaker 2: Well, so I'd like to ask you about something that
Speaker 2: could make a difference, or really two things in which
Speaker 2: one of them might matter the most. We have been
Speaker 2: talking at length here today about the fundraising figures from
Speaker 2: the Harris campaign five hundred and forty million dollars raised
Speaker 2: in the five weeks since Shoe Biden dropped out, but
Speaker 2: also this notion that the campaign says it's not just
Speaker 2: about the money they've raised, it's about the people they
Speaker 2: have signed up to volunteer, more than two hundred thousand
Speaker 2: of them that could potentially be out there knocking on doors,
Speaker 2: working the ground game. So, Mara, how important will that
Speaker 2: be in a state like Arizona not just buying time
Speaker 2: on the airwaves, but also having people show up to
Speaker 2: talk to Arizonas in person.
Speaker 13: Well, you know, over a third of Arizonans identifies independent
Speaker 13: and tell posters that they are un committed to either party. Now,
Speaker 13: typically independent do favor one party over the other. But
Speaker 13: getting these groups mobilized and getting them, you know, registered
Speaker 13: and ready to vote is you know, it's essential.
Speaker 14: And the fact that there is such a.
Speaker 13: Big ground campaign going on right now in Arizona is
Speaker 13: going to be real, really essential. I mean, I am
Speaker 13: expecting a lot of knocks on my door and a
Speaker 13: lot of text messages and a lot of phone calls,
Speaker 13: and I think everybody in Arizona's going to experience that.
Speaker 2: I also want to ask you, Samorrow something about something
Speaker 2: that happened in Arizona last week, which was RFK Junior
Speaker 2: suspending his presidential campaign and then endorsing Donald Trump and
Speaker 2: joining him on stage in Arizona. What difference do you
Speaker 2: think that actually makes there or in any other state
Speaker 2: for that matter, Were you considering RFK Junior as a
Speaker 2: consequential factor in the outcome of this race.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm.
Speaker 13: Gonna wait to see how the polls play out this week.
Speaker 13: I have a poll going out to Arizona's this week
Speaker 13: as well. Support for RFK had dipped really low. I mean,
Speaker 13: it was hundred around.
Speaker 14: Five percent by the time he dropped out.
Speaker 13: So we're not talking about a lot of voters here,
Speaker 13: and there is a lot of speculation as to what
Speaker 13: these voters are going to do. They're not uniformly leaning
Speaker 13: toward Trump. They do favor Trump over Harris, but just
Speaker 13: slightly so. So it's hard to know whether this is
Speaker 13: going to make a difference. But you know, as I
Speaker 13: just said, anything could, and we're going to see what
Speaker 13: the numbers say over the next you know, week or two,
Speaker 13: as these voters decide whether they'll participate at all or
Speaker 13: who it is that they're going to give their vote to.
Speaker 2: Well, and of course before they ultimately decide, they will
Speaker 2: have potentially chances to hear from both of these candidates.
Speaker 2: September tenth on ABC, two weeks from tomorrow. Tomorrow is
Speaker 2: scheduled to be the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris,
Speaker 2: though Donald Trump is maybe throwing into question whether he
Speaker 2: wants it to be on ABC, whether or not Mike's
Speaker 2: will be hot the whole time is an outstanding issue,
Speaker 2: it seems, between these two campaigns. But how consequential will
Speaker 2: that moment be to voters in these swing states including Arizona,
Speaker 2: of course, but elsewhere in deciding who they're going to
Speaker 2: cast a ballot for. Can either candidate afford to give
Speaker 2: up that opportunity?
Speaker 13: I mean, listen, I was always one of the many
Speaker 13: political scientists would say, you know, debates don't all matter
Speaker 13: all that much, but look what happened after that Biden
Speaker 13: Trump debates, So debates debates matter, it turns out, and
Speaker 13: you know, I Kamala Harris has a bit of a
Speaker 13: lead right now in terms of momentum and just the
Speaker 13: trends in her favor. So the debate's gonna matter, especially
Speaker 13: for Trump. He's gonna kind of have to stop her
Speaker 13: inner tracks a little bit, try to reverse that momentum.
Speaker 13: And so I think, you know, I think it will
Speaker 13: be consequential when it comes to determining, you know, what
Speaker 13: the trend's going forward. Harris has been on a upward
Speaker 13: trajectory ever since she announced her candidacy. The debate would
Speaker 13: be a good opportunity for Trump to to sort of
Speaker 13: stop those trends and regain that momentum.
Speaker 3: All right tomorrow.
Speaker 2: Always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining me. Samoraw Klara of
Speaker 2: course of the University of Arizona. We appreciate your time
Speaker 2: as we focus on the southwest part of the United States.
Speaker 2: But we also have a message today for those in
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