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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and then Roun Auto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: It's just about ten weeks to go until the election.

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Speaker 2: Two weeks to go until we're supposed to see a

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Speaker 2: presidential debate take place on ABC.

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Speaker 3: That's on September tenth.

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Speaker 2: And of course these weeks are sure to fly by

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Speaker 2: because just to give you a sense of how quickly

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Speaker 2: time is moving in this election cycle, it was five

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Speaker 2: weeks ago that Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid, exiting

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Speaker 2: the presidential race, making way for Kamala Harris, who, within

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Speaker 2: those last five weeks her campaign says, has now raised

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Speaker 2: over half a billion dollars four hundred, five hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty million dollars to be exact, raised by her campaign

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Speaker 2: and affiliated super pac. Eighty two million of that was

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Speaker 2: raised at the DNC in Chicago last week. So it

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Speaker 2: is a money race here that we are paying attention

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Speaker 2: to and always with an eye on. It is Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Gregory Cordy, who covered the White House in politics for

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Speaker 2: US and is joining me now in studio here in Washington.

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Speaker 2: So Gregory, of course, cash advantage is a big thing

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Speaker 2: in the presidential campaign. We've seen Biden during the course

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Speaker 2: of his now ended campaign out raising Trump and Trump

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Speaker 2: outraising Biden.

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Speaker 3: It does feel like things have flip flopped a lot.

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Speaker 2: But with the kind of frenetic pace of fundraising we

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Speaker 2: have seen so far from the Harris campaign, is it

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Speaker 2: going to be possible for Donald Trump to reach a

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Speaker 2: cash advantage once again?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you set up that context because that's

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Speaker 4: exactly what I was going to bring to this. So

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Speaker 4: the question that you asked, now, where do we go

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Speaker 4: from here? And I think that's an open question. Look,

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Speaker 4: both of these campaigns, it's part of the modern political

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Speaker 4: presidential campaign game to seize on a moment. And one

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Speaker 4: way to quantify how big a moment is is to

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Speaker 4: talk about your small dollar fundraising. So when Trump was

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Speaker 4: leading in the fundraising, it was because he was being

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Speaker 4: indicted or convicted and people rallied around him. President Biden

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Speaker 4: had a big fundraising a week after his State of

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Speaker 4: the Union address. And here we have Kamala Harris being

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Speaker 4: the new fresh face in this race. Right, she enters

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Speaker 4: the race, she gets a bounce, she continues to get

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Speaker 4: that bounced through the convention. As you said, more than

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Speaker 4: half a billion dollars in just one month. I mean,

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Speaker 4: let's just wrap our heads around how astronomical that is.

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Speaker 4: A few months ago, if a candidate had, you know,

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Speaker 4: one hundred million, one hundred and fifty million, we would

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Speaker 4: think of that as a big month. So this is huge.

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Speaker 4: And what the Harris campaign would point to is the

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Speaker 4: first time donors, because those donors suggest room to grow.

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Speaker 4: They're not at the thirty three hundred dollars person limit.

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Speaker 4: Presumably these are often fifty dollars, So maybe they'll give

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Speaker 4: fifty dollars a yen next month, and and again, and

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Speaker 4: so these are encouraging numbers for the Harris campaign. The

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Speaker 4: question is, can Trump find some moment for him to

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Speaker 4: rally around And it could be the debate, it could

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Speaker 4: be some other moment, some October surprise that we haven't

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Speaker 4: quite We don't know yet, but that's certainly going to

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Speaker 4: be the game for both these candidates.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you point out that the campaign did

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Speaker 2: emphasize that about a third of these donors of the

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Speaker 2: five hundred and forty million dollars were first timers. They

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Speaker 2: also said two thirds were women. Gregory and I wonder

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Speaker 2: how telling that is when we've been talking about the

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Speaker 2: battle for women, specifically in the suburbs, and how pivotal

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Speaker 2: they could be and ultimately deciding which way this election goes.

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Speaker 4: That is remarkable. I've been doing this long enough that

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Speaker 4: a few decades ago, when you would see a campaign contribution,

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Speaker 4: it would often been be done in the husband's name,

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Speaker 4: but they would both of them would contribute as sort

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Speaker 4: of a household. Now we're seeing women donate in their

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Speaker 4: own names, and very often you might see the husband

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Speaker 4: donate into one party and the wife donating to the

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Speaker 4: other party and canceling each other out. It is remarkable

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Speaker 4: and it demonstrates how big this gender gap is growing.

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Speaker 4: Even before Kamala Harris got into the race, we were

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Speaker 4: seeing a growing divide between men and women in America

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Speaker 4: that has been growing for decades, but really Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: has accelerated it. Now Kamala Harris is in the race

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Speaker 4: and obviously talking about a lot of women's issues. She's

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Speaker 4: talking about reproductive rights, but she's also talking about childcare.

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Speaker 4: She's talking about things that will appeal to that holy

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Speaker 4: grail of swing voter, the suburban woman.

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Speaker 2: Well, and of course she's not just talking about it

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Speaker 2: on stage, as we saw her do in Chicago or

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Speaker 2: in her various campaign appearances. She's also taking a lot

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Speaker 2: of that messaging to the airwaves, which raises the question, Gregory,

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Speaker 2: about it's one thing to raise all the money, it's

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Speaker 2: another thing to spend it. And the pace of spending

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Speaker 2: matters here as well. Right, we have seen this campaign,

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Speaker 2: and Biden's campaign before this, shelling out more cash than

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's was or it is now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And the feeling when it was Biden's spending that

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Speaker 4: money is that he needed to make up some ground,

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Speaker 4: and soon he left Kamala Harris with about a ninety

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Speaker 4: two million dollar war chest. She's obviously built and expanded

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Speaker 4: upon that. But the candidate dollars, For as much as

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Speaker 4: we talk about superpacks, the candidate dollars are so valuable

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Speaker 4: because under Federal Election Commission and Federal Communication Commission rules,

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Speaker 4: the TV stations have to give the lowest best deal

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Speaker 4: to the candidate campaigns. They get the time blocked off

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Speaker 4: for them first, and so those dollars go a lot further.

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Speaker 4: Super PACs can do a lot in terms of filling

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Speaker 4: in the gaps, but it's really these campaign dollars that

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Speaker 4: go the furthest What we are going to see though,

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Speaker 4: in a lot of these swing states, especially Pennsylvania, where

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Speaker 4: the lion's share of the money is being spent right now,

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Speaker 4: is you might get to the part where there's just

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Speaker 4: no ad inventory on broadcast stations.

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Speaker 3: To it's all bought up.

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Speaker 4: If you're a mattress store or a car dealer in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 4: you may just take the month of October off because

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Speaker 4: you you may not be able to buy an ad.

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Speaker 4: That the airwaves are going to be so saturated with

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Speaker 4: political ads, I'm already hearing it. I stopped by the

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Speaker 4: Pennsylvania delegation at the Democratic Convention last week and they

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Speaker 4: are already just inundated back to back to back.

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Speaker 2: Ads well on a subject of as it calls to mind.

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Speaker 2: During the Super Bowl, we saw a few political ads

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Speaker 2: as well. One of them that perhaps got the most

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Speaker 2: attention was from RFK Junior campaign that now is put

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Speaker 2: on pause.

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Speaker 3: He dropped out or not?

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Speaker 2: I Guess officially dropped out but suspended his campaign on Friday,

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Speaker 2: endorsed former President Trump. Do we have a sense yet

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Speaker 2: of what real difference that's likely to make where the

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Speaker 2: people who were suggesting in polls were going to vote

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Speaker 2: for him go Now there's.

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Speaker 4: A Republican answer to this question. There's a democratic answer

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Speaker 4: this question. I'll give you my answer to this question.

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Speaker 3: That's the one, which is.

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Speaker 4: That I don't know that it makes a whole lot

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Speaker 4: of difference. What we saw before he dropped out was

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Speaker 4: that he was taking roughly equally from Republicans and Democrats.

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Speaker 4: The Republicans will point to some numbers that he was

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Speaker 4: taking a little bit more from Trump maybe, and so

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Speaker 4: this this advantages him, but that was all within the

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Speaker 4: margin of error. But also keep in mind that a

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Speaker 4: good number of Kennedy supporters, maybe forty percent, were people

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Speaker 4: who said they wouldn't show up to vote if it

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Speaker 4: were just Trump versus Harris. These were a lot of

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Speaker 4: double haters, and they were double haters for a reason.

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Speaker 4: So the big question is going to be, just because

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Speaker 4: RFK endorses Trump, will his followers go with him to Trump?

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Speaker 4: And that's something we're just gonna have to watch in

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Speaker 4: the polls for the next few weeks. But keep in mind,

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Speaker 4: you know, Kennedy had started with maybe at he topped

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Speaker 4: out it maybe fifteen percent. Some poles had him as

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Speaker 4: high as twenty. By the time he dropped out, he

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Speaker 4: was under five percent. So we're not talking about a

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Speaker 4: huge voting block in some of these swing states. It

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Speaker 4: could make a difference, and that's why I think he

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Speaker 4: made the decision he did.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg White House and Politics reporter Gregory Cordy,

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Speaker 2: thank you, as always for joining me. Now to continue

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Speaker 2: this conversation, we turned to Matt Bennett. He is executive

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Speaker 2: vice president at Third Way. Matt, of course we caught

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Speaker 2: up in Chicago briefly as well, and I asked you

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Speaker 2: about RFK Junior at that time, on the eve of

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Speaker 2: his suspension of his campaign.

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Speaker 3: He now, of course has done so.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder if your answer agrees with Gregory's that

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Speaker 2: it's not actually clear this is going to make much

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Speaker 2: difference at all.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I fundamentally agree with that. However, I will give

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Speaker 5: you the democratic answer. As Gregory noted, there are two

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Speaker 5: and that is what we really don't know is the

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Speaker 5: scale of this RFK could be a problem for Trump

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Speaker 5: for two reasons. First, he is kind of repellent to

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Speaker 5: a lot of women. He has admitted to sexually assaulting

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Speaker 5: his kid's babysitter and has said there's probably other women

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Speaker 5: out there that have come forward with allegations against him

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Speaker 5: that he admits. And the second thing is he said

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Speaker 5: he would sign a federal abortion band when he was

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Speaker 5: still running for president, So those are not things designed

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Speaker 5: to attract women. Also, the guy is just super weird.

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Speaker 5: I mean, over the weekend a story came out about

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Speaker 5: how he took his kids down to the beach, cut

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Speaker 5: the head off a beached whale, put it on the

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Speaker 5: roof of his car, and had his kids put plastic

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Speaker 5: bags on their heads to keep the whale juice off

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Speaker 5: of their heads. I mean, he is a weirdo, and

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Speaker 5: if Trump and Vans are trying to avoid that label,

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Speaker 5: maybe bring an RFK on wasn't such a great idea.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So now we have the whale story, we have

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Speaker 2: the bear story, we have the photo next to a

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Speaker 2: barbecue dog at one point many years ago, Matt.

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Speaker 3: All of these animal reminders.

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Speaker 2: It is worth pointing out, of course, that you third

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Speaker 2: way also played a role in vanquishing if you will,

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Speaker 2: No Labels or at least their efforts this election cycle

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Speaker 2: out of concern that they could actually be a big spoiler.

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Speaker 2: There was the spoiler concern about RFK Junior as well,

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Speaker 2: and arguably if you listen to him and is running

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Speaker 2: meet Nicole Shanahan. It was the idea that they were

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Speaker 2: turning into a spoiler that impacted their decision.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 2: What does it say to you that now there is

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Speaker 2: really no third party option, that this is ultimately going

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Speaker 2: to be a choice Trump Harris or stay home for

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Speaker 2: the American voter.

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Speaker 5: Well, first of all, I'm very happy that the major

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Speaker 5: third party candidates at No Labels then RFK now out

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Speaker 5: of the race. I think it makes it much clearer

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Speaker 5: for voters. However, there are a couple left. Jill Stein

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Speaker 5: is still running as a Green Party candidate. That might

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Speaker 5: not strike most listeners as very important, but she had

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Speaker 5: an impact on the outcome of the election in twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 5: even getting only one or two percent of the vote

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Speaker 5: in swing states. If she does that again, that could matter.

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Speaker 5: So we're going to keep the pressure on and make

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Speaker 5: sure that voters understand who Jill Stein is, and that

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Speaker 5: she's not a safe place for them to park their

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Speaker 5: vote if they're unhappy with both Harris and Trump.

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Speaker 2: We consider where votes move when candidates leave the race.

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Speaker 2: It does take me back to the conversation we were

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Speaker 2: having in March after Super Tuesday when Nicki Haley dropped

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Speaker 2: out this idea, where does the nicky Haley voter go?

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Speaker 2: Now that we are seeing Harris pick up in polls,

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Speaker 2: in some cases substantially higher than Joe Biden was pulling

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Speaker 2: in July when he dropped out of the race, does

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Speaker 2: that suggest to you that maybe some of those nicky

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Speaker 2: Haley voters are indeed going to her as that other

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Speaker 2: choice or do we not know that?

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Speaker 3: Answered definitively yet.

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Speaker 5: Well, there's certainly there some. I mean, we saw them

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Speaker 5: at the convention in t shirts that said Haley voter

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Speaker 5: for Harris, So we just don't know the magnitude of that.

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Speaker 5: My guess is that most of the reason that the

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Speaker 5: polls have tightened is because the people that we refer

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Speaker 5: to as the double haters, people that weren't happy with

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Speaker 5: both Trump and Biden, have almost have overwhelmingly moved towards Harris.

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Speaker 5: They have gone from something like twenty two percent of

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Speaker 5: the electric down to blow ten and that can be

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Speaker 5: the reason for the difference. Some of them may have

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Speaker 5: voted for Haley in the primaries, some didn't. But there

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Speaker 5: is a real battle on for those people, people who

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Speaker 5: may never have voted for a Democrat before but just

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Speaker 5: can't bring themselves to vote for Trump for all of

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Speaker 5: the reasons that Harris are and others particulated.

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Speaker 2: So what wins that battle, Matt? Is it money that

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Speaker 2: helps or is it actual people that helps? And I

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Speaker 2: asked this because as I was just talking to Gregory

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Speaker 2: about the big fundraising hall for Harris in the month

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Speaker 2: and changed since Biden dropped out. Yes, it's over half

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Speaker 2: a billion dollars, but her campaign also pointed to more

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Speaker 2: than two hundred thousand people signing up as volunteers.

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Speaker 3: What matters more?

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Speaker 5: Oh, well, there's no doubt that people matter more than money,

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Speaker 5: especially in presidential races. In modern presidential campaigns, no one

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Speaker 5: loses or wins because they have more money, because both

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Speaker 5: sides have so much that they basically hit a point

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Speaker 5: of diminishing returns in the hand states that really matter.

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Speaker 5: If you live in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, you have my condolences.

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Speaker 5: You're in for hellish several months of television viewing and

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Speaker 5: they're going to see plenty of ads. What matters most

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Speaker 5: is hearing from trusted messengers, and what that means is

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Speaker 5: mostly people in their networks, people that they know, their neighbors,

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Speaker 5: their colleagues, their friends, their family. And the fact that

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Speaker 5: so many new people are coming to the Harris campaign

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Speaker 5: to volunteer is enormously important. Now, a lot of those

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Speaker 5: two hundred thousand do not live in those seven states,

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Speaker 5: and they can be helpful, but not as helpful as

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Speaker 5: the people who do. So we really got a hope

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Speaker 5: that people rally to her in the places that matter.

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Speaker 2: The most well and in those places that matter remote,

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Speaker 2: those swing states, we're seeing the candidates criss crossing them

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Speaker 2: this week. Trump's planning to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 2: Harrison Walls. Later on this week, we'll be doing a

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Speaker 2: bus tour of Georgia, as some Poland have suggested, suggests

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Speaker 2: Matt that the Sun Belt is more in play than

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Speaker 2: it was for Joe Biden. If you were advising the

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Speaker 2: campaign on where they should be divvying up their time

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Speaker 2: their resources, be it people, money, or otherwise, should they

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Speaker 2: be focusing a lot of energy on the Sun Belt

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Speaker 2: or should they concentrate in the rest belt where we're

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Speaker 2: seeing Trump advance spend a lot of time.

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Speaker 5: I think they got to do both for a couple

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Speaker 5: of reasons. First of all, unlike when Biden was running,

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Speaker 5: as you note, Harris definitely has a shot in North

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Speaker 5: Carolina and Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, and winning some or

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Speaker 5: all of those states could be the difference even if

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Speaker 5: we end up losing one of the Blue Wall states

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Speaker 5: of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. So I do think they

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Speaker 5: have the resources, they have the surrogates they can send

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Speaker 5: into these places. I think it's a good idea. And

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Speaker 5: remember when she campaigns in Georgia, that means Trump has

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Speaker 5: to as well. If one campaign ignores the state, the

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Speaker 5: other that is stronger there can do the same. But

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Speaker 5: now we're going to make the Trump people spend money

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Speaker 5: in time in Georgia as well. So I think it's

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Speaker 5: a good investment, all right.

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Speaker 2: Matt Bennett, executive vice president at Third Way. Always great

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Speaker 2: to have you here on Balance of Power. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for joining me. That does seem to be

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Speaker 2: part of the strategy for both campaigns forced them to

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Speaker 2: spend money in places that they may not want to

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Speaker 2: or may not have planned to as substantially, it's going

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Speaker 2: to be something we continue to follow.

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Speaker 1: Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast

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Speaker 1: kens Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay

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Speaker 1: and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Back in Washington after a marathon week last week in

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Speaker 2: Chicago at the Democratic National Convention, and at that convention,

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Speaker 2: the Democrats focused a lot on this notion of freedom,

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Speaker 2: freedom when it comes to a number of things, but

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Speaker 2: reproductive rights specifically something that entering the conversation. Remember when

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris was accepting the Democratic presidential nomination. In her speech,

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Speaker 2: as she was talking about abortion rights, she suggested that

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Speaker 2: Trump and Republicans are quote out of their minds when

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Speaker 2: it comes to that issue. The question is whether their

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Speaker 2: minds can actually change. And perhaps the appearance of JD. Vance,

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Speaker 2: of course, the Republican vice presidential nominee on Meet the

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Speaker 2: Press yesterday when he talked about abortion. As an indication

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Speaker 2: of that, this is what he had to say.

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Speaker 6: I can absolutely commit that Kristen and Donald Trump has

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Speaker 6: been as clear about that as possible. I think it's

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Speaker 6: important to step back and say, what is Donald Trump

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Speaker 6: actually said on the abortion question, and how is it

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Speaker 6: different from what Kamala Harrison the Democrats have said. Donald

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Speaker 6: Trump wants to end this cultural war over this particular topic.

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Speaker 6: If excuse me of California wants to have a different

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Speaker 6: abortion policy from Ohio, then Ohio has to respect California

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Speaker 6: and California has.

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Speaker 5: To respect Ohio.

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump's view is that we want the individual states

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Speaker 6: and their individual cultures and the unique political sensibilities to

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Speaker 6: make these decisions.

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Speaker 2: Now, what the senator said he could commit to was

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Speaker 2: this notion that Donald Trump would not sign into law

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Speaker 2: a federal abortion ban. Later on in the program on

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Speaker 2: Meet the pet Press, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren joined and

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Speaker 2: she said, quote, American women are not stupid, and we

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Speaker 2: are not going to trust the futures of our daughters

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Speaker 2: and granddaughters to two men who have openly bragged about

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Speaker 2: blocking access to abortion for women all across this country.

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Speaker 2: It's on this note we assemble our political panel today,

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Speaker 2: two women, in fact, Jeanie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributor, contributor

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Speaker 2: and senior Democracy fellow at the Center for the Study

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Speaker 2: of the Presidency and Congress, together today with Republican strategist

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Speaker 2: Brittany Martinez, who of course is founder at Espina in Company.

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Speaker 2: Thank you both so much for joining me. Genie, we'll

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Speaker 2: come to you first because it is worth pointing out

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Speaker 2: that during the first Trump administration back in twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 2: and I'd like to thank my producer CC for flagging

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Speaker 2: this this morning, Donald Trump was encouraging the Senate to

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Speaker 2: pass a twenty week abortion band so they could send

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Speaker 2: it to his desk for him to sign. Should voters

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Speaker 2: believe that he wouldn't pursue something similar this time around,

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Speaker 2: or should some kind of evolution on this issue be allowed?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think on both sides, we are hearing the

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Speaker 7: sound of everybody desperately trying to run to the center.

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Speaker 7: I mean, at the Democratic Convention, we heard the Democrats

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Speaker 7: Kamala Harris, it was as if she never ran in

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Speaker 7: twenty nineteen, moving right to the center. And we see

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump and jd Vance doing this as well, and

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Speaker 7: that's what that interview and Meet the Press was all about.

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Speaker 7: We've seen Donald Trump screaming on truth social that women

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Speaker 7: will be safe. I'm great with women. They love me.

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Speaker 7: So they are desperately trying to go to the center

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Speaker 7: because Republicans know on this issue of abortion, regardless of

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Speaker 7: what you think of it personally, electorally, it has been

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Speaker 7: a big problem for Republicans since Roe was overturned. So

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Speaker 7: can you trust him? I think Elizabeth Warren suggested, no,

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Speaker 7: can do when they've been bragging about it. But the

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Speaker 7: reality is he and Kamala Harris are doing what they

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Speaker 7: have to do electorally to try to show people that

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Speaker 7: they are moderate in the middle and not to worry

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Speaker 7: about things that you know, their party and they in

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Speaker 7: the past have said and now they are running away

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Speaker 7: from So.

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Speaker 2: If everybody's rushing to the middle, Brittany, and we include

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Speaker 2: the Republican ticket in that, if genius is to be believed,

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Speaker 2: does that actually risk backfiring? If Donald Trump is rushing

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Speaker 2: toward the middle, or jd Vance is doing so perhaps

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Speaker 2: on his behalf to try to attract more moderates, do

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Speaker 2: they risk alienating what comprises a decent portion of the

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Speaker 2: Republican base, which is pro life, who already were feeling

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Speaker 2: like the campaign was kind of betraying them, and for example,

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Speaker 2: adopting a policy platform that didn't call explicitly at the

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Speaker 2: RNC for a federal abortion band. Does this risk backfiring?

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Speaker 2: Is this something that can work?

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Speaker 8: I mean, I think that's probably always a possibility. But

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Speaker 8: here's what we have to keep in mind. According to

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Speaker 8: research excuse me, Pew research pulling from earlier this year,

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Speaker 8: sixty three percent of Americans think that abortion should be

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Speaker 8: legal in all or in some cases, whereas it's only

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Speaker 8: thirty six percent the other way around when you break

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Speaker 8: it up by party.

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Speaker 9: Obviously Republicans are more.

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Speaker 8: Conservative on that issue, of course, but also if you

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Speaker 8: look back to earlier this year during the Republican primary,

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Speaker 8: Nikki Haley was our best messenger when it came to

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Speaker 8: abortion and pro life issues. And I think what you're

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Speaker 8: going to see over the next few years is Republicans

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Speaker 8: moving more towards those talking points. And yes, of course

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Speaker 8: there are those supporters who are very conservative on this issue,

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Speaker 8: but I would also say that if you will, if

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Speaker 8: you're comfortable getting some of the Republican policies that maybe

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Speaker 8: we'll start moving a little bit more progressively rather than

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Speaker 8: the Democrats who are way more liberal on this issue.

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Speaker 8: I think that those voters are still going to stay

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Speaker 8: with the Republicans.

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Speaker 3: Well, I do wonder as well.

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Speaker 2: And this isn't specific to the abortion issue, but if

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Speaker 2: we are allowing which perhaps we should allowing candidates to

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Speaker 2: change their tune on various issues, perhaps it's abortion for

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump and JD.

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Speaker 3: Vance.

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Speaker 2: But of course they've been criticizing Kamala Harris on a

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Speaker 2: number of flip flops that she has made based on

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Speaker 2: as Genie was alluding to what she was campaigning on

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Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen in her short lived first presidential run

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Speaker 2: versus now, be it on healthcare, be it on fracking,

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Speaker 2: for example, something critically important to the swing state of

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Speaker 2: Pennsylvania Brittany. Are Republicans still going to be able to

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Speaker 2: effectively message that she's a flip flopper on the issues

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Speaker 2: if they are doing the same.

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Speaker 8: I mean, I think so there is always an argument

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Speaker 8: to be made, right and when it comes to this issue,

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Speaker 8: I mean, I know we're speaking beyond abortion now as well,

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Speaker 8: but she hasn't ran as a presidential candidate in what

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Speaker 8: is it five years at this point, and so you

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Speaker 8: are allowed to evolve your opinions, I think. But Republicans

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Speaker 8: are going to hit on the flip flop. I'm sure

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Speaker 8: Democrats will hit on the flip flop. Whoever is able

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Speaker 8: to kind of trate the message to Americans in the

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Speaker 8: best way, they're the ones who are going to be

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Speaker 8: the most successful.

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Speaker 9: I mean, it's a messaging game at the end of

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Speaker 9: the day.

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Speaker 2: Well, and it's also about where you take that message.

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Speaker 2: Of course, we're going to see both of these candidates

440
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 2: and the tickets as a whole crisscrossing the swing states today,

441
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,159
Speaker 2: Donald Trump going or not today but this week in

442
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 2: Michigan and Pennsylvania. Harrison Walls will be on a bus

443
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 2: tour of Georgia later this week. But Jeanie There has

444
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,160
Speaker 2: been reporting over the course of the last few days

445
00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump's getting ready to rev things up. He

446
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: is going to be much more active on the campaign

447
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: trail as he's worried about losing ground to Harris. Is

448
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 2: it better or worse for the Harris campaign to see

449
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 2: more of Donald Trump? Knowing that in a number of

450
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 2: appearances recently he has lost discipline and is focusing more

451
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 2: on personal attacks than on policy issues. Does him actually

452
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: being out there more help Harris or hurt her?

453
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 7: You know, I have always been of the opinion that

454
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 7: the more Trump, the better for the Democrats, particularly because

455
00:22:56,119 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 7: he just is so undisciplined, you know, his campaign. Most

456
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:05,120
Speaker 7: Republicans want him to address the issues. On most issues,

457
00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 7: he has a very good record that appeals to people.

458
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 7: When you talk about the economy, when you talk about immigration,

459
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 7: when you talk about crime, most people trust him on

460
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 7: those things. And yet he goes to these rallies and

461
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 7: he says, do you want me to talk about personal

462
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 7: issues or the issues topical issues? And they scream personal issues,

463
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,439
Speaker 7: and then he goes on the attack, and so he

464
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 7: robs himself of the ability to be disciplined and to

465
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 7: take Harrison on all those issues that you and Brittany

466
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 7: were just talking about, from cracking and energy all the

467
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 7: way through to the economy, taxes and everything else. So

468
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 7: I think if he is out there in these big

469
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 7: rallies and he is his old, undisciplined self, it is

470
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 7: better for Harris. By the same token, I was surprised

471
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 7: Harris was off the campaign trail after her very good convention,

472
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 7: I thought, very much like Tim Waltz said, you can

473
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 7: sleep when you're dead. You've got to be out there

474
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 7: when the this type. I guess she was preparing for

475
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 7: the debate, but I think she has got to be

476
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 7: out there. But for her, it's got to be out

477
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 7: there talking to reporters and answering some tough questions. So

478
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 7: I think they both have challenges on either side.

479
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, Jeanie to that point, didn't she say that

480
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: before the month of August was out she was going

481
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 2: to sit down for one of those big interviews. We

482
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 2: don't know of anything on the books yet.

483
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 7: Yeah, nothing we've heard of. I keep hearing it's going

484
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 7: to be this week and everybody, and I'm sure you, Kayley,

485
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 7: have bitt it on come talk to us. Everybody is

486
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 7: asking her to come talk to them. We don't know

487
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 7: where she'll be, but I really believe she's got to

488
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 7: get out there in a tough interview sooner rather than later.

489
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 2: Yes, again, and I will repeat this every chance I get.

490
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 2: Vice President Harris, you have a standing invitation to join

491
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 2: us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Of course, the

492
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: Republican ticket does as well, we'd love to talk to

493
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 2: any of you as where you're now just ten weeks

494
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 2: out from the election, so Jeannie or Britney.

495
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 3: Rather to the point Genie was just making.

496
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 2: Going back to Donald Trump being more active on the trail,

497
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 2: this idea that he has lacked discipline or perhaps is

498
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 2: being very disciplined, and he's shucking off the advice of

499
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 2: his advisors and doing exactly the opposite of what it

500
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 2: seems they're telling him to do. If you were on

501
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 2: that team, and I know you're no fan of Donald Trump,

502
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 2: but you are a Republican strategist, how do they work

503
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 2: around the candidate here? What is the best way for

504
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 2: the campaign, the enterprise of it, to move forward over

505
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 2: the course of the next ten weeks.

506
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 8: I love how you put that he is very disciplined

507
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 8: of being undisciplined.

508
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 9: I've never heard that before. It's brilliant.

509
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 8: Yes, you know, and even we've kind of seen the

510
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 8: contradictionary over the weekend right where they're trying to push

511
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 8: back on like no no mikes during the breaks on

512
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 8: and he was, you know, on films saying like, oh

513
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:46,719
Speaker 8: I don't care, like we can have him on, but

514
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 8: like but I don't it.

515
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 9: Doesn't matter to me. I'll do whatever that is not helpful.

516
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 8: I mean, I guess that's all you can keep doing

517
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 8: is pushing that messaging and trying to stay in control

518
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 8: of like the social media, the truth of the Twitter,

519
00:25:59,119 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 8: those sorts of things.

520
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 9: But this is what you have to keep in mind.

521
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 8: People love, like what Genie said earlier about the personal

522
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 8: tax they love that stuff. The magabase loves that. We

523
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 8: have seen him be a little bit more disciplined and

524
00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 8: stick to the script in the binder. But what you

525
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 8: lose in that is his enthusiasm and vigor that you

526
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 8: see during the tax. I mean, it feels like a

527
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 8: five year old who has been told by his teacher

528
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 8: that he has to speak during the school assembly and

529
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 8: he just doesn't want to. So as little time in

530
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 8: those long winded press conferences as possible, trying to take

531
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 8: control of the Twitter, and you know, trying to have

532
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:40,399
Speaker 8: to shift back to messaging when Trump ultimately inevitably doesn't

533
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 8: say what he should be saying.

534
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 2: Well, So, Genie, is that why we're seeing the Harris

535
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 2: campaign push for Mike's live during the debate on September tenth,

536
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 2: not follow the rules of the Biden Trump debate that

537
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,360
Speaker 2: we saw on June twenty seventh, where their mics were

538
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,439
Speaker 2: cut off after their time was up. They want his

539
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 2: mic on because they're hoping he slips up.

540
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,959
Speaker 7: Right, Absolutely, I think they would love nothing more than

541
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 7: a repeat of the first debate in twenty twenty. I

542
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 7: don't know if my hurt can take it, but I

543
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 7: think that's what they're going for. And to Britney's point,

544
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 7: the juxtaposition here is just incredible. Donald Trump on the

545
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 7: teleprompter looks like he is a hostage somewhere, whereas Kamala Harris,

546
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,639
Speaker 7: they say, can't get her off the teleprompter. So we

547
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 7: have two very different candidates. And boy, the Democrats want

548
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 7: him on that mic saying anything outrageous they can get

549
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 7: him to say for that debate, if there is a debate.

550
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 7: I should add.

551
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 3: Well that at this hour is the big if.

552
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 2: Brittany, We'll talk more about this in the next hour

553
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 2: when you'll be back with us. But Donald Trump suggesting

554
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,399
Speaker 2: maybe he's not going to show up on that ABC

555
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 2: debate on September tenth, do you buy it?

556
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 3: Is he going to miss that opportunity.

557
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 9: I think he'll be there.

558
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 8: I think he's just a showman, and he likes to

559
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,880
Speaker 8: exploit the narrative, and so I think he'll be there.

560
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 8: But he's just using this time to sort of, you know,

561
00:27:58,400 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 8: get under people's skin.

562
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 9: Maybe, but he'll be.

563
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 3: There all right.

564
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 6: Well.

565
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: Brittany Martinez Espina and Company founder and Republican strategist, and

566
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 2: Jeanie Shanze, no Bloomberg Politics contributor and Senior Democracy Fellow

567
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 2: at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.

568
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 3: Thank you both.

569
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 2: Of course, I'll have much more with both Jeanie and

570
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 2: Brittany next hours. We continue to keep our eye on

571
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: the campaign trail and of course on the money as well.

572
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,479
Speaker 2: As we have told you this hour, Kamala Harris has

573
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 2: crossed the half a billion dollar fundraising mark five hundred

574
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 2: and forty million dollars to be exact, and her presidential

575
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 2: campaign is only five weeks old. At this point, It's

576
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: only been five weeks since Shoe Biden left the race.

577
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 2: This is a fast moving campaign. Something tells me the

578
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: next ten weeks are going to move even faster. We're

579
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 2: just seventy days out. Everyone from this election will continue

580
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 2: to have full coverage of it for you here on

581
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: Bloomberg and of course it's not just our political panel

582
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 2: that will help us be covering that. Will speak next

583
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:57,000
Speaker 2: hour to Samara Klar of the University of Arizona. Take

584
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: a specific look at that swing state in the Sun

585
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 2: Belt that it does seem Kamala Harris and Tim Walls

586
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: are targeting more of and we'll keep an eye on

587
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 2: the Middle East as well. In the next hour, I'll

588
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 2: be joined by Natasha Hall at the Center for Strategic

589
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 2: and International Studies. As Israel launched preemptive strikes against Hesbula

590
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 2: in Lebanon over the weekend, so much more is still ahead.

591
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: In the second hour, A Balance of Power.

592
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 3: Stick with us.

593
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

594
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play

595
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 1: and then Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

596
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

597
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

598
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 2: Does feel like a huge part of the city today

599
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 2: is still in recovery mode, trying to catch back up

600
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: on sleep and recharge after last week's very busy Democratic

601
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 2: National Convention in Chicago. Certainly an energetic event, I think

602
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 2: it's fair to say, and also one that proved to

603
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 2: be quite the boon in terms of the money game

604
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 2: for Kamala. Harrison affiliated super packs eighty two million dollars

605
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: raise last week alone, and that brings their total hall,

606
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: according to the campaign, to five hundred and forty million

607
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 2: dollars since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. That

608
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: of course happened just five weeks ago. We are talking

609
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 2: a frenetic pace of fundraising here that is basically unmatched

610
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 2: in modern political history. And the campaign, of course is

611
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: ongoing now with just seven weeks to go until election

612
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 2: day and two weeks until a presidential debate that we

613
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 2: think is still on, even though Donald Trump is casting

614
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: a little bit of doubt on that within the last

615
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 2: twenty four hours. So here it cover it all for us.

616
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: As Laura Davisson, she is Bloomberg a politics editor and

617
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 2: is here with me in studio on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

618
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 2: So if we could just begin with the money, because

619
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: of course that is crucially important in a race that

620
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: is probably going to turn out to be very, very expensive.

621
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 2: We were talking about before Joe Biden dropped out of

622
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 2: the race, how Donald Trump is actually the one that

623
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 2: was turning out to have the bigger cash advantage. Kamala

624
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 2: Harris has been able to flip that script in a

625
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: very short period of time. The question is can this

626
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 2: keep going or is she about to tap everything she

627
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 2: was going to tap and perhaps tap it too soon.

628
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 10: It's unlikely she's tapped everything she has to tap, you know,

629
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 10: particularly as she continues to rise in the polls. Donors

630
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 10: like to bet on winners and continue to spend when

631
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 10: they see signs that their investment is doing something. But

632
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 10: just the number five hundred and forty million dollars, that

633
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 10: is a huge figure. Biden's twenty twenty campaign raised just

634
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 10: over a billion dollars, So just in the span of

635
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 10: one month, she's raised more than fifty percent of what

636
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 10: Biden raised in the course of an entire campaign, when

637
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 10: there was a lot of money, there was a lot

638
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 10: of interest, there was a lot of enthusiasm behind Biden

639
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 10: at that time. So it's just a really incredible amount

640
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 10: of money that she's brought in the door and Trump

641
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 10: has not been able to match that at all. He's

642
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 10: been raising kind of what a normal campaign was somewhere

643
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 10: around you know, one hundred, one hundred and fifty million

644
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 10: dollars a month and she's at you know, over five

645
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 10: hundred million.

646
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: Well, and it's not just the actual dollar figures that

647
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 2: her campaign is touting.

648
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 3: It's people too.

649
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: This notion that two hundred thousand volunteers have signed up.

650
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 2: How powerful is that that is not just the ability

651
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: to buy ad space on the airwaves, also get people

652
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 2: to knock on doors and to actually do some of

653
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: the groundworking that might be necessary to turn people out.

654
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 10: That's incredibly helpful. We'll get out the vote type efforts.

655
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 10: It also you know, and this is something they talked

656
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 10: a lot about at the convention. If if you have people

657
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 10: who are enthusiastic and excited, they're talking about it with

658
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 10: their friends, they're talking about it with their family and

659
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 10: making sure people have a plan to vote and actually

660
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 10: go vote on election day, that's the enthusiasm that really

661
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 10: kind of helps. You know, Remember, these elections are going

662
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 10: to be decided by ten thousand votes in some of

663
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 10: the key swing states, so you know, having you know,

664
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 10: certain communities that make sure that you know, elderly relatives

665
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 10: have a way to get to the polls that can

666
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 10: make a difference.

667
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 2: Well, and as we talk about the swing states, about

668
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 2: Harrison Walls will be in Georgia on a bus tour

669
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: later this week. Donald Trump himself will be kind of

670
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 2: criss crossing. He was in Virginia earlier today. He's going

671
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania this week as well,

672
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 2: And all of the reporting indicates that he's getting ready

673
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 2: to ramp things up in a pretty material way, that

674
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 2: he's going to be spending more time on the trail,

675
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: perhaps less time at his properties, be it in Florida

676
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 2: or New Jersey. Laura, I would imagine it's no coincidence

677
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 2: that that's coming at a time where Harris is raising

678
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 2: so much money and rising at least from where Joe

679
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: Biden was in polls. How how is Donald Trump planning

680
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: to counter this? Is it literally just getting out there

681
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: and going to the states themselves.

682
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 3: That's that's one of his strategies, you know.

683
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 10: He you know, up until you know, about two or

684
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 10: three weeks ago, had been doing one or two events

685
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 10: a week. Last week he did something like seven or

686
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 10: eight events a week. So he's really seeing that, you know,

687
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 10: having a younger opponent, having both Harris and Walls who

688
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,560
Speaker 10: are out there on the campaign trail and doing multiple

689
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 10: events a day. He's got to be able to match that.

690
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 10: There's also some concerns sort of among his staff that

691
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 10: having him at mar A Lago or at Bedminster, you know,

692
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 10: just golfing and stewing too much is also a problem.

693
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 10: They want to get him out there in front of voters,

694
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 10: though they're changing a strategy a little bit. They're not

695
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 10: doing some of the big, big rallies that he's done before,

696
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 10: partially because those are really expensive. That also they want

697
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 10: to keep him on message, so they're doing smaller events,

698
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 10: you know, at manufacturing plants, you know, at sheriff's office,

699
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 10: to talk about the border, to talk about the economy.

700
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 10: That hasn't you know, worked exactly the way they wanted to.

701
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 10: He's still been, you know, talking about the personal attacks.

702
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 10: Even one rally last week he pulled the crowd and said, hey,

703
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 10: if you want me to focus on the personal attacks

704
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 10: or not, and you know, had the crowd cheer for

705
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 10: which option they preferred, and the applause was way louder

706
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,320
Speaker 10: for you know, continuing on the personal insults.

707
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, perhaps it's more entertaining. And I take your point

708
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: about them not wanting to see or them being his

709
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: staffers and those advising him not wanting to see him

710
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:19,879
Speaker 2: just hold up in one place doing for too long.

711
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: But also, isn't there kind of an argument to be

712
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,200
Speaker 2: made that the more Trump is out there, the higher

713
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 2: likelihood it is that he goes off script, that he

714
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 2: loses that discipline, Like some of the moments may not

715
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,240
Speaker 2: be so positive that he's generating.

716
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 3: That is true.

717
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 10: However, he can also be on true social all day

718
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 10: and night, you know, making some of those same things.

719
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 10: So even one of the remarks that got the most

720
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 10: pick up over the weekend was him talking about how

721
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 10: he's going to be a champion for women's reproductive rights.

722
00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: Yes you're reading that.

723
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 10: You might think, oh, this sounds like a Democrat. No,

724
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 10: this is Donald Trump who is now deciding he wants

725
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 10: to pivot his messaging on abortion. This is both of

726
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 10: course outraging Democrats who say, wait, this is our issue.

727
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 10: You know, Donald Trump doesn't support this, as well as

728
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 10: allies saying, hey, I thought this was the pro life

729
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 10: Republican Party. What happened to that?

730
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 2: Well, and Jadie Vance on Meet the Press on Sunday

731
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 2: suggested that Donald Trump would not sign into law a

732
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 2: federal ban on abortion, despite what Donald Trump said he

733
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: would do when he was actually president back in twenty eighteen.

734
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Warren later came on the program and said women

735
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 2: don't trust Trump Advance on that issue effectively. But Jade

736
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 2: Advance did sit down for that interview. Kamala Harris, as

737
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 2: the Trump Advance ticket, will be very quick to point out,

738
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,840
Speaker 2: has not yet done so. She said she would do it,

739
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 2: but the month of August being over, this is the

740
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 2: last week of August. Laura, do we have any idea

741
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 2: when this is going to happen.

742
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 10: We have not had any indication that this is going

743
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 10: to happen. She's also said she sit down with the

744
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 10: National Association of Black Journalists. That's another group that you know,

745
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 10: Trump made a lot of headlines and you know when

746
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 10: he went in front of them. So the time is

747
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 10: is sort of now for her to you know, schedule

748
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 10: something to show, hey, look, I can have these unscripted moments.

749
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 3: It's also might behoove.

750
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 10: Her because she's got this debate allegedly on September tenth.

751
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:52,479
Speaker 3: We'll see if it happens.

752
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 10: There's been a little bit of back and forth between

753
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 10: the camps today on whether this will actually come to fruition.

754
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 10: But it's a good test, you know, having to go

755
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 10: out there and get pressured on what maybe some weak

756
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 10: points for the campaign.

757
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: Well, I'm glad you brought that up, because Donald Trump,

758
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 2: of course appeared to be watching ABC News yesterday didn't

759
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 2: necessarily like what he saw. He was on True Social

760
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 2: suggesting why would I debate on this network?

761
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,399
Speaker 3: Then we understood that there was a bit of.

762
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 2: An issue happening between the two camps as to whether

763
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 2: or not the microphone should be hot the whole time

764
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 2: or cut off after your time was up, as we

765
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: saw on June twenty seventh when Biden and Trump debated.

766
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: Are these real sticking points that realistically.

767
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 2: Could result in this debate not happening, though Laura, is

768
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: either candidate going to be willing to give up the

769
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:34,480
Speaker 2: opportunity to address each other and the American people on

770
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 2: stage two weeks from now.

771
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 10: It's highly unclear if this debate is going to happen.

772
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 10: Harris seems more committed to it, and in fact, she

773
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 10: wants Trump's mike to be unmuted throughout the entire time.

774
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 10: Remember the Biden camp one of the exact opposite. They

775
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 10: wanted the mics to be muted. Now it's Trump's side

776
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 10: that wants them to be muted. So it's a little bit,

777
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 10: you know, both sides are kind of flip flopping back

778
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 10: on the rules. You know, it seems like Trump personally

779
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 10: is the one who is more concerned about being out there.

780
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 10: Said he wouldn't debate, then he said he wanted debate,

781
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 10: and now he's saying won't debate.

782
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 3: We'll see.

783
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 10: Harris has said she's going to show up on September tenth,

784
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 10: no matter what, we'll see.

785
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 3: That's just two weeks away, it is, indeed, so we'll see. Indeed.

786
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: Laura Davison, who of course is an editor of politics

787
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 2: for US here at Bloomberg, thank you so much for

788
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: joining me. And an issue that likely would come up

789
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 2: in the debate and came up at the Democratic National

790
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 2: Convention as well of the ongoing war in Gaza between

791
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas. Harris did make reference to that in

792
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 2: her acceptance speech, as she said that she and Biden

793
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: are working toward a ceasfire deal, but also said that

794
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 2: ultimately what she wants to see is freedom and security

795
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 2: and self determination for the Palestinian people. That was a

796
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 2: phrase or a sentence that got loud roars and applause

797
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 2: from the crowd gathered there in Chicago. I would point

798
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 2: out as well that there were not as disruptive protests

799
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 2: in Chicago a pro to Palestinian protesters as some feared

800
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: going into it. All that said, things continue in the

801
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 2: Middle East to catch our attention, including this weekend Israel

802
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 2: launching what it described as a preemptive strike against Hesbola

803
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 2: targets in southern Lebanon. This is, of course, as we

804
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 2: were all waiting for retaliation from both Hesbelon potentially Iran

805
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,760
Speaker 2: itself for the assassinations of a Hesblah commander Antamas's political

806
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 2: leader in Tehran last month. So for more on this,

807
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 2: we turned to Natasha Hall. She is a senior fellow

808
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic

809
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 2: and International Studies. Natasha, it's a lot to discuss, but

810
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 2: if we could first focus on the strikes Israel conducted

811
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,319
Speaker 2: over the weekend. They described them as preemptive, but were

812
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: they also escalatory.

813
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 11: That's a great question. I mean, what Israel ended up

814
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 11: saying was that these were preemptive strikes, that they had

815
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 11: gotten word or they had gotten intelligence that Hezbulah was

816
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 11: about to launch a major attack, and that this preemptive

817
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 11: strike sort of preempted this attack from Hezbullah, which would

818
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 11: have launched thousands of rockets into Israel. We still saw

819
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 11: attacks from Hesbulah hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel,

820
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:02,479
Speaker 11: and they were meant to target a military base within

821
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 11: Israel itself, at least according to Hesbalah sources. And so

822
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,720
Speaker 11: there was a very very heightened escalation in the early

823
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 11: morning hours of Sunday. But it's unclear if this was

824
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 11: escalatory or not, but military analysts are saying that this

825
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 11: was essentially effective in terms of deterrence.

826
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 2: Okay, So if it was effective deterrence, is it effective

827
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 2: at deterring more than just what was understood to be

828
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 2: an eminent strike by Israeli intelligence? And by that I

829
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 2: mean if they were specifically going after Hesbela missile launchers.

830
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,399
Speaker 2: Did it take out enough capability that Hesbelah poses less

831
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 2: of a threat to Israel now if it decides it

832
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 2: wants to try retaliation again.

833
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 11: Well, I mean Hesbela is one of the is the

834
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 11: best armed non state actor perhaps in the world. So

835
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 11: it has hundreds of thousands of drones and rockets, so

836
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 11: this doesn't necessarily wipe up out their capabilities, and they've

837
00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 11: been able to rebuild their capabilities quite quickly with the

838
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 11: support of Iran. So I wouldn't say that this is

839
00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 11: a long term deterrent strategy, but what it was was

840
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 11: a way for both Israel and has Blah to say

841
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 11: that they did something in the aftermath of the assassination

842
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 11: of Hasbalah leader of Wad Shukur late last month, and

843
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 11: also HEMS leader Ismailhaniya and Tehran that said, Iran still

844
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 11: has not conducted its retaliatory at strike for that assassination

845
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 11: the way that they had promised to. So it's unclear

846
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 11: if this is a peace for the long run or

847
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 11: if this is just a momentary pause at the moment,

848
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 11: most people believe it could be just a momentary pause,

849
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 11: but at least long enough for people to go back

850
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,319
Speaker 11: to their normal lives.

851
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: Well, and so this notion about Iran potentially deciding to

852
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: take retaliatory measures itself. When we saw Iran launch the

853
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 2: attempted strikes on Israel back in April, the drones and

854
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: the missiles that were largely intercepted, everybody said, well, Iran

855
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 2: didkind of telegraph what it was going to do and

856
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: sending those slow drones first, so there was warning that

857
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 2: it was coming. Now, Israeli intelligence picked up that Hesbelo

858
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 2: was getting ready to strike and tried to counteract that

859
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 2: before it even could happen. Does that suggest that Iran

860
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 2: potentially is going to trying to avoid that same ending

861
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 2: try to actually land a blow against Israel this time?

862
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 9: It's possible.

863
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 11: I mean, it would make them extremely vulnerable to a

864
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,479
Speaker 11: wide scale attack by Israel. We now have two US

865
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 11: carrier strike groups in the Middle East at the moment,

866
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 11: but it's difficult to remain on high alert for a

867
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 11: very long time, and so it's probably Iran's strategy to

868
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 11: wait this out a little bit until that high alert

869
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:50,000
Speaker 11: kind of diminishes. And that's an effective strategy as well,

870
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 11: because if they can connect it to the failure of

871
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 11: ceasefire talks, which we haven't discussed yet, but ceasefire talks

872
00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 11: remain ongoing, but without any kind of conclusion. In fact,

873
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 11: there's been an escalation in Gaza of Israeli attacks there,

874
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,359
Speaker 11: so Iran would could effectively point to that failure and

875
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 11: the assassination attempt in the weeks ahead when it goes

876
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,959
Speaker 11: ahead with some kind of retaliatory strike, but it needs

877
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 11: to be careful because it does not have the competitive

878
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 11: edge the way that Israel does well.

879
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 2: Natasha, I do want to talk about those ceasefire talks,

880
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 2: especially given the description we got on the progress from

881
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 2: Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor who spoke in Canada

882
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 2: over this weekend.

883
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 3: Take a listen.

884
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 12: It is incumbent on all parties in the region to

885
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 12: work towards de escalation and stability, and so we are

886
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 12: feverishly working in Cairo as we speak with our team

887
00:42:43,400 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 12: and the teams of the other mediators as well as

888
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 12: with the Israelis to get to a ceasefire and hostage deal.

889
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 2: Natasha, does it feel to you like all of this

890
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 2: feverish work is going somewhere.

891
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 11: It seems like there's feverish work to prevent a regional escalation,

892
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 11: and there's certainly diplomats that are working on the ground

893
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 11: NonStop on these talks. But we've been talking about the

894
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 11: same sticking points in these ceasefire negotiations for months now,

895
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 11: and some of that is the control of the Philadelphi Corridor,

896
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 11: which lands between Gaza and Egypt and the Netserene Corridor,

897
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,319
Speaker 11: which is sort of halfway between the Gaza strip. But

898
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 11: in the meantime, Israel has ordered an evacuation of areas

899
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,720
Speaker 11: previously described as humanitarian areas, and this is after people

900
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 11: have been displaced dozens and dozens of times, and we

901
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 11: have reports of polio breaking out in Gaza. So this

902
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 11: feverish diplomacy that we've been hearing about for months seems

903
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 11: to be delayed. Hamas has left Cairo, where the negotiations

904
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 11: were happening, saying that they resented the fact that Israel

905
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 11: was trying to change the stipulations of previous potential agreements

906
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 11: in July. So it remains to be seen. I think Metnyahu,

907
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 11: the Prime Minister of Israel, also has to deal with

908
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 11: multiple constituents, those on the far right who refuse any

909
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 11: kind of ceasefire negotiations, and the rest of the country,

910
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 11: which frankly wants a pause to this fighting.

911
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 2: And Natasha, we just have a minute left. But I

912
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:16,800
Speaker 2: do wonder about the role of the US here and

913
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 2: whether it continually is getting ahead of itself. Joe Biden

914
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 2: at the end of May outlined this multi step plan,

915
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 2: saying that this was the agreement in parties just needed

916
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 2: to sign off. It obviously didn't happen. They're still working

917
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 2: on the same framework now than Anthony Blincoln last week

918
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 2: suggested Israel has agreed to this, making it seem like

919
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 2: the finish line was in sight, and yet it very

920
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: clearly is not. Does the US need to stop trying

921
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 2: to paint this as more done than it is in public?

922
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 11: I think their strategy has been trying to push Natanyahu

923
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 11: by going public with these kinds of agreements and make

924
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 11: it seem essentially inevitable that there's a ceasefire agreement in place.

925
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 11: And of course there's political reasons for this as well.

926
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 11: We have a presidential election very soon, and so getting

927
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 11: a ceasefire agreement or acting like a ceasefire agreement is imminent,

928
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 11: is in their political interests. But it remains to be

929
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 11: seen if there is an actual sort of military pressure

930
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 11: put on Israel by the United States, if Israel would

931
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 11: actually agree to this nnya who has a lot of

932
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 11: political considerations which would potentially prevent him from doing so,

933
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 11: And so if there isn't more pressure applied there, it

934
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 11: remains to be seen if there will be any kind

935
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 11: of substantive ceasefire agreement in the upcoming weeks.

936
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 2: All right, Natasha, thanks as always for joining us. Natasha Hall,

937
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,760
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center

938
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 2: for Strategic and International Studies. Always appreciate your insight. Thank

939
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:48,720
Speaker 2: you for joining us. Right here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

940
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

941
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

942
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 1: Ronoto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

943
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: live on Amazon on Alexa from our flagship New York station,

944
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

945
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:09,320
Speaker 2: It's a week in which we will see the presidential

946
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: tickets crisscrossing a number of the swing states that ultimately

947
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 2: could decide the outcome of this election. Donald Trump and

948
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 2: Jade Vance will be in Michigan and Pennsylvania this week,

949
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 2: while Kamala Harris and Tim Walls later on this week

950
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:25,360
Speaker 2: will be in Georgia doing a bus tour of the state.

951
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 2: Interesting to see the Harris Walls ticket focusing their time

952
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 2: in the week after the Democratic National Convention in the

953
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 2: Sun Belt. Georgia of course, is part of that, as

954
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 2: are other states, including North Carolina and Arizona, where Harris

955
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 2: is pulling better than Joe Biden was when he left

956
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 2: the race just five weeks ago. So it's to the

957
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 2: sun Sun Belt we go.

958
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 7: Now.

959
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:47,279
Speaker 3: Samara Klar is with me.

960
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,759
Speaker 2: She is a professor of public policy and government at

961
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 2: the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy. Rather,

962
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:56,919
Speaker 2: Samara is always great to have you as we look

963
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: specifically at Arizona, and of course we look back to

964
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 2: the New York Times Ciana pol that came out last

965
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 2: weekend that showed Harris at fifty and Trump at forty five.

966
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: Do you buy that? Do you buy that something has

967
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 2: fundamentally changed to put a state that seemed frankly out

968
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: of play for Joe Biden in play and potentially looking

969
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 2: like Kamala Harris could lock it up.

970
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean sure, I absolutely buy it. You know,

971
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 13: before there was the switch to Harris. I don't think

972
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 13: we should overstate how dramatic this change has been. Biden

973
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 13: did win Arizona in twenty twenty. Of course, previous to

974
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 13: him stepping aside, he was down in the polls, but

975
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 13: typically that by about four ish five percentage points, So

976
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 13: it wasn't landslide blowout pulling in Trump's favor, And I

977
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:45,919
Speaker 13: would say the same thing. Now, Trump is still ahead

978
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 13: in Arizona in some poles, the poll u site has

979
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 13: Harris ahead by about four or so percentage points, so

980
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 13: not quite outside the margin of error. So, you know,

981
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 13: we started off with a really tight race in Arizona,

982
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:58,839
Speaker 13: and what we have today is a really tight race

983
00:47:58,840 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 13: in Arizona.

984
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 2: Well that's fair, and I wonder about the demographics who

985
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 2: ultimately will decide that race one way or another. While

986
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,319
Speaker 2: I was in Chicago last week tomorrow, we spoke with

987
00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,239
Speaker 2: the head of the Hispanic Federation, others who look specifically

988
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 2: at the Latino vote as well, who have suggested that

989
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 2: they have seen a serious increase in enthusiasm or at

990
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 2: least interest in this race since Harris became the nominee

991
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: instead of Joe Biden. Is it the Latino vote that

992
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 2: will matter most in Arizona or is it another group

993
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:27,720
Speaker 2: we should be watching more carefully?

994
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 13: The Latino votes should not be you know, it cannot

995
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 13: be overstated. In Arizona, we have a large and growing

996
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 13: proportion of our electorate who are Latino. We have a

997
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 13: lot of young voters voting for the first time, So

998
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:43,320
Speaker 13: Latino voters matter, youth vote matters. The urbanization of Arizona,

999
00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:46,439
Speaker 13: where we have voters moving from rural areas into urban

1000
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:49,479
Speaker 13: areas and voting for the first time. We of course

1001
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:52,279
Speaker 13: have a lot of domestic migration into Arizona. So there's

1002
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 13: a lot of important groups out here in Arizona, and

1003
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 13: any one of them could make the difference because our

1004
00:48:56,520 --> 00:49:00,560
Speaker 13: electoral outcomes here are so razor thin. In Arizona do

1005
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 13: typically support Democrats at higher rates about two.

1006
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 14: To one, But there's a lot of political diversity.

1007
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 13: I always say Latuto's are not a monolithic voting block

1008
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 13: by any stretch of the imagination, and both parties should

1009
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 13: and can make a concerted appeal for their support.

1010
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 2: Well certainly, and as you talk about first time voters

1011
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,279
Speaker 2: within that group, the Harris campaign is also pointing to

1012
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 2: first time donors that have made contributions to their campaign.

1013
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 2: In just the five weeks since it launched, since Joe

1014
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:27,759
Speaker 2: Biden drop it out of the race, they say they've

1015
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: raised five hundred and forty million dollars in total between

1016
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 2: the campaign and affiliated super packs. They say one third

1017
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 2: of that are first time donors. Two thirds of the

1018
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 2: total Samara are women, And I wonder if we consider

1019
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 2: demographic groups here, how you are watching women in particular

1020
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 2: in Arizona and frankly elsewhere.

1021
00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 13: Harris is the beneficiary of a widening gender gap in

1022
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 13: Arizona and across the country, where women are supporting Harris

1023
00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:56,880
Speaker 13: at much higher rates than they appeared to have been

1024
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,040
Speaker 13: supporting Joe Biden. And that is especially true among the

1025
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 13: youngest generations and eighteen to twenty nine year olds voting

1026
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 13: for the first time, donating for the first time. Those

1027
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 13: women are showing really unprecedented levels of support for a

1028
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 13: Democratic nominee at this point in the race. So I think,

1029
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 13: you know, a lot of that, you know, attracts with

1030
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 13: what we're seeing in the polls, with young women coming

1031
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 13: out and supporting Harris at vastly higher levels than they

1032
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 13: had been supporting Joe Biden.

1033
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 2: Well, and of course women's rights, reproductive rights specifically was

1034
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 2: a big focus of conversation on the stage and elsewhere

1035
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 2: in Chicago last week. At the DNC Kamala Harris specifically

1036
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 2: talked about reproductive rights. At one point in her acceptance speech,

1037
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 2: talked about what Republicans and Donald Trump want to do

1038
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 2: on abortion and called them simply out of their mind.

1039
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,280
Speaker 3: So that was a direct quote Samara.

1040
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:43,360
Speaker 2: But it does seem that the Republican ticket is trying

1041
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:47,320
Speaker 2: to reshape at least its stance on abortion or message

1042
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 2: it differently, including the vice presidential nominee sennittor jd Vance,

1043
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 2: who sat down for an interview on Meet the Press

1044
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 2: this weekend, was asked whether or not Donald Trump would

1045
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:57,879
Speaker 2: sign a federal abortion ban into law.

1046
00:50:58,160 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 3: This was his answer.

1047
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,919
Speaker 6: Absolutely commit that, Kristen Donald Trump has been as clear

1048
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:05,240
Speaker 6: about that as possible. I think it's important to step

1049
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 6: back and say, what is Donald Trump actually said on

1050
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 6: the abortion question, and how is it different from what

1051
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 6: Kamala Harrison the Democrats have said. Donald Trump wants to

1052
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:16,719
Speaker 6: end this cultural war over this particular topic. If excuse me,

1053
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:20,000
Speaker 6: California wants to have a different abortion policy from Ohio,

1054
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 6: then Ohio has to respect California and California has to

1055
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 6: respect Ohio. Donald Trump's view is that we want the

1056
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 6: individual states and their individual cultures and their unique political

1057
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 6: sensibilities to make these decisions.

1058
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 2: And I should be clear what he said he could

1059
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 2: commit to. Was Donald Trump not signing a federal abortion ban, Samara,

1060
00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 2: despite the fact that when Trump was president back in

1061
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, he was pushing the Senate to pass a

1062
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,479
Speaker 2: twenty week ban on abortion, get it to his desk

1063
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 2: so that he could sign it. Are American voters going

1064
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,600
Speaker 2: to buy that he thinks differently now in a post

1065
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 2: row world.

1066
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:55,320
Speaker 13: Well, this has been a really big pivot for a

1067
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 13: lot of Republican candidates. We're seeing is Americans generally do

1068
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:02,560
Speaker 13: not favorable or bands, and support for reproductive rights.

1069
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:04,240
Speaker 14: Has been really high, even in red states.

1070
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 13: So Republican candidates from Donald Trump down to here in Arizona,

1071
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 13: Carrie Lake once Isca money, they've all been trying to

1072
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:13,439
Speaker 13: figure out how they can amend their views, change their views,

1073
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 13: whoever you want to think about it, to better suit

1074
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 13: the American people. Seems where Republicans have landed is on

1075
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,000
Speaker 13: sort of leaving it to the people to decide, trying

1076
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 13: to step away from it altogether. And here in Arizona,

1077
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 13: we do have abortion on the ballot in November, and

1078
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,839
Speaker 13: it's going to be a huge motivator for a lot

1079
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 13: of pro choice voters who say that abortion is more

1080
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 13: important to them than what we typically see pro life

1081
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 13: voter seeing, so to restate that pro choice voters say

1082
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 13: abortion is more important than pro life voters do. So

1083
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 13: it's more of a mobilizing, mobilizing issue that could help

1084
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris in Arizona and in other states across the country.

1085
00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I'm glad you raised that point tomorrow, because,

1086
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 2: of course, since Rowe was overturned, since the Dobs decision,

1087
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 2: we have seen abortion literally on the ballot in a

1088
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:58,960
Speaker 2: number of states, and voters overwhelmingly in each of those

1089
00:52:59,000 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: instances have voted to protect abortion rights and have done

1090
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,800
Speaker 2: so in frankly high numbers. So, as you were alluding

1091
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 2: to before the fact that things are always really really

1092
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 2: close in Arizona, these are always very tight races, is

1093
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 2: the fact that abortion is also going to be on

1094
00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 2: that ballot in addition to the senatorial candidates to the

1095
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 2: presidential candidates. Could that potentially be the thing that makes

1096
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:21,240
Speaker 2: or breaks who wins.

1097
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 14: Absolutely.

1098
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 13: I mean, we have abortion on the ballot that's going

1099
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,839
Speaker 13: to be very mobilizing and will probably help not only

1100
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 13: Kamala Harris but down ballot democrats as well. We also

1101
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 13: have an immigration measure on the ballot which provides the Arizona,

1102
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 13: Arizona State of Arizona with more power to enforce immigration

1103
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 13: here at the state level, that could potentially help Republican candidates.

1104
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 14: And so we are seeing this sort of tension between.

1105
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,839
Speaker 13: A ballot measure that favors the Democrats and a ballot

1106
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 13: measure that favors the Republicans. We'll see how these two

1107
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 13: ballot measures eventually balance out. But I mean anything in

1108
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 13: a state like this, where things are so close, it's

1109
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:59,360
Speaker 13: hard for me to say that there's anything that couldn't

1110
00:53:59,360 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 13: make a difference.

1111
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 2: Well, so I'd like to ask you about something that

1112
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:05,359
Speaker 2: could make a difference, or really two things in which

1113
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 2: one of them might matter the most. We have been

1114
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 2: talking at length here today about the fundraising figures from

1115
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:12,760
Speaker 2: the Harris campaign five hundred and forty million dollars raised

1116
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 2: in the five weeks since Shoe Biden dropped out, but

1117
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 2: also this notion that the campaign says it's not just

1118
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 2: about the money they've raised, it's about the people they

1119
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 2: have signed up to volunteer, more than two hundred thousand

1120
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:25,920
Speaker 2: of them that could potentially be out there knocking on doors,

1121
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:28,960
Speaker 2: working the ground game. So, Mara, how important will that

1122
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 2: be in a state like Arizona not just buying time

1123
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 2: on the airwaves, but also having people show up to

1124
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 2: talk to Arizonas in person.

1125
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 13: Well, you know, over a third of Arizonans identifies independent

1126
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 13: and tell posters that they are un committed to either party. Now,

1127
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:47,840
Speaker 13: typically independent do favor one party over the other. But

1128
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 13: getting these groups mobilized and getting them, you know, registered

1129
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,320
Speaker 13: and ready to vote is you know, it's essential.

1130
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:55,840
Speaker 14: And the fact that there is such a.

1131
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 13: Big ground campaign going on right now in Arizona is

1132
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 13: going to be real, really essential. I mean, I am

1133
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 13: expecting a lot of knocks on my door and a

1134
00:55:03,800 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 13: lot of text messages and a lot of phone calls,

1135
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 13: and I think everybody in Arizona's going to experience that.

1136
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:11,359
Speaker 2: I also want to ask you, Samorrow something about something

1137
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:15,240
Speaker 2: that happened in Arizona last week, which was RFK Junior

1138
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: suspending his presidential campaign and then endorsing Donald Trump and

1139
00:55:19,280 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 2: joining him on stage in Arizona. What difference do you

1140
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,839
Speaker 2: think that actually makes there or in any other state

1141
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 2: for that matter, Were you considering RFK Junior as a

1142
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:34,040
Speaker 2: consequential factor in the outcome of this race.

1143
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:35,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm.

1144
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 13: Gonna wait to see how the polls play out this week.

1145
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:39,439
Speaker 13: I have a poll going out to Arizona's this week

1146
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:43,520
Speaker 13: as well. Support for RFK had dipped really low. I mean,

1147
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 13: it was hundred around.

1148
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 14: Five percent by the time he dropped out.

1149
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,359
Speaker 13: So we're not talking about a lot of voters here,

1150
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:51,759
Speaker 13: and there is a lot of speculation as to what

1151
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 13: these voters are going to do. They're not uniformly leaning

1152
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 13: toward Trump. They do favor Trump over Harris, but just

1153
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 13: slightly so. So it's hard to know whether this is

1154
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 13: going to make a difference. But you know, as I

1155
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 13: just said, anything could, and we're going to see what

1156
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 13: the numbers say over the next you know, week or two,

1157
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 13: as these voters decide whether they'll participate at all or

1158
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 13: who it is that they're going to give their vote to.

1159
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 2: Well, and of course before they ultimately decide, they will

1160
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 2: have potentially chances to hear from both of these candidates.

1161
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 2: September tenth on ABC, two weeks from tomorrow. Tomorrow is

1162
00:56:24,200 --> 00:56:26,800
Speaker 2: scheduled to be the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris,

1163
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:29,320
Speaker 2: though Donald Trump is maybe throwing into question whether he

1164
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,240
Speaker 2: wants it to be on ABC, whether or not Mike's

1165
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,760
Speaker 2: will be hot the whole time is an outstanding issue,

1166
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 2: it seems, between these two campaigns. But how consequential will

1167
00:56:38,800 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 2: that moment be to voters in these swing states including Arizona,

1168
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,480
Speaker 2: of course, but elsewhere in deciding who they're going to

1169
00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 2: cast a ballot for. Can either candidate afford to give

1170
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 2: up that opportunity?

1171
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 13: I mean, listen, I was always one of the many

1172
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:52,719
Speaker 13: political scientists would say, you know, debates don't all matter

1173
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 13: all that much, but look what happened after that Biden

1174
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 13: Trump debates, So debates debates matter, it turns out, and

1175
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 13: you know, I Kamala Harris has a bit of a

1176
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:03,480
Speaker 13: lead right now in terms of momentum and just the

1177
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 13: trends in her favor. So the debate's gonna matter, especially

1178
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:09,200
Speaker 13: for Trump. He's gonna kind of have to stop her

1179
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 13: inner tracks a little bit, try to reverse that momentum.

1180
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:13,399
Speaker 13: And so I think, you know, I think it will

1181
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 13: be consequential when it comes to determining, you know, what

1182
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 13: the trend's going forward. Harris has been on a upward

1183
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:21,960
Speaker 13: trajectory ever since she announced her candidacy. The debate would

1184
00:57:21,960 --> 00:57:23,960
Speaker 13: be a good opportunity for Trump to to sort of

1185
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 13: stop those trends and regain that momentum.

1186
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 3: All right tomorrow.

1187
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 2: Always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

1188
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:32,920
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining me. Samoraw Klara of

1189
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:36,080
Speaker 2: course of the University of Arizona. We appreciate your time

1190
00:57:36,120 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 2: as we focus on the southwest part of the United States.

1191
00:57:39,400 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: But we also have a message today for those in

1192
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 2: the Northeast and New England. Specifically, we have some news

1193
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:47,440
Speaker 2: for our Bloomberg Radio audience. Starting on September third, you

1194
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:49,640
Speaker 2: can listen to Bloomberg Radio in and around Boston on

1195
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 2: our new signal ninety nine FM. It's your new source

1196
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:57,080
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1197
00:57:57,120 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio is moving to ninety nine at noon the

1198
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 2: day after Labor Day.

1199
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:10,360
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1200
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1201
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1203
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