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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Moulman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today as our NFL Super Bowl Trends episode, this is

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Speaker 1: the episode where we will be joined by the world

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Speaker 1: famous Evan Abrams. Because what research guru can say. They've

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Speaker 1: shown up at a live event for the podcast that

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Speaker 1: they are an integral part of, and a fan loves

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Speaker 1: what he is producing so much that that fan put

10
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Speaker 1: in permanent marker stats that Evan has produced about this

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Speaker 1: fans favorite player on the jersey that he bought with

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Speaker 1: a lot of money of that favorite player. I'm talking,

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Speaker 1: of course about this fan who loves Dak Prescott and

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Speaker 1: all over his jersey put in permanent marker stats that

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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams has recited about Dak Prescott. As our old

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Speaker 1: pal Colin Coward likes to say, there is a sea

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Speaker 1: of money out there, let's get to it. Also, this

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Speaker 1: is our last chance, your last chance to submit your

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Speaker 1: prop bet in our Bet three six five Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: Prop contest. If you have an idea for a prop

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Speaker 1: you'd like to see posted on Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: for the super Bowl email to podcasts at Actionnetwork dot come.

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Speaker 1: The person who submits the winning pick will get their

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Speaker 1: bet posted by bet three six five plus Action Network prizes,

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Speaker 1: And if you pass the vetting of Matt Mitchell, you

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Speaker 1: can join us on the podcast. Let's bring in my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike com Padra, my BFF professional

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Speaker 1: better Sigmon Hunter n Us Simon. Hello, dude, We're now

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Speaker 1: only like nine days away from the super Bowl and

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Speaker 1: so this is the perfect time to bring in the

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Speaker 1: man we've referenced more on this show than Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: and Brock Purty combined. He's Action Networks head of Research.

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Speaker 1: He is a font of information. He is a betting savant.

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Speaker 1: He has forgotten more about betting than all of our

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Speaker 1: listeners combined. New York City's finest Heavin Abrams.

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Speaker 2: I have never in my life gotten that type of

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Speaker 2: intro and I think you've actually introed me before at

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Speaker 2: a live event. So that was incredible. And the one

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Speaker 2: thing I will say about that at Jersey Permanent Ink

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Speaker 2: and the money spent, so that was more dedication than

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Speaker 2: I've ever had. So I appreciate that fan more than anything,

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Speaker 2: and what's up, guys.

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Speaker 1: Good to see you. I'm glad you're here. We got

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Speaker 1: a lot of stuff to break down. This is a

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Speaker 1: good way for us to review all the trends that

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Speaker 1: are going to inform decisions for the Super Bowl and

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Speaker 1: partially make us feel better about some of the stuff

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Speaker 1: we've already discussed in the Tuesday pod, which was liking

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs and liking the under We already know there's

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Speaker 1: been a million dollar bet on the Niners money line

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Speaker 1: at a sportsbook that is not Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: So and the initial take is that the wise guys

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Speaker 1: are on the Niners. So Simon and I are looking

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Speaker 1: for some handrails on the roller coaster, Buddy. The Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet three

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Speaker 1: six five must be twenty one or older and present

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia or

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Speaker 1: eighteen and oh they're in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right. Time to get

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Speaker 1: into it, boys, Evan would start with winning winners who cover.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a pretty simple one fifty seven super bowls.

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Speaker 2: Those teams are fifty seven and oh, that's a great trend, Evan,

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Speaker 2: but they are forty eight seven and two against the

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Speaker 2: spread eighty seven percent. So that means of the fifty

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Speaker 2: seven Super Bowls, the winning team has lost against the

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Speaker 2: spread just seven times. The winning team is overwhelmingly the

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Speaker 2: team that covers, but with a spread under a field goal,

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Speaker 2: it is unlikely to matter one way or the other.

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Speaker 2: Two more points would be This is supposed to be

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Speaker 2: the sixteenth straight Super Bowl where the favorite is laying

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Speaker 2: less than seven points, extending the longest streak in super

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Speaker 2: Bowl history. So all the Super Bowls recently very small

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Speaker 2: numbers and the most common numbers three eight times and

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Speaker 2: four six times, so nothing out of the ordinary. And

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Speaker 2: as we're messing around now with twos and threes, it's

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Speaker 2: all very important. And going back to that point, ched

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or less

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Speaker 2: twenty nine and one against the spread that one Simon

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Speaker 2: mentioned it earlier that Bengals Rams game that kind of

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Speaker 2: broke it all. And then when you do four or less,

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Speaker 2: it's twenty two and h eleven dogs eleven favorites straight up.

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Speaker 2: So these small numbers just pick a winner.

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Speaker 3: A club record eighty plus thousand showed up to see

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Speaker 3: some serious headbanging in the AFC Championship.

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Speaker 1: All right, Simon, let me ask you this. We've already

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Speaker 1: bet the Chiefs plus two and a half. Do we

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Speaker 1: take the Niners on the money line?

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Speaker 4: Now, I'm thinking you can get even weirder with it.

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Speaker 4: After an Evans stat I feel like the play is

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Speaker 4: you just take the Chiefs two and a half, where

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Speaker 4: you take the forty nine Ers minus two and a

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Speaker 4: half and you get a plus number on both sides,

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Speaker 4: and it sounds likely whoever wins the number lands on three.

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Speaker 4: So that's crazy. I didn't know it was like that

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Speaker 4: with football. Where basically the team that wins not only

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Speaker 4: do they cover, they cover by a decent amount. So

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Speaker 4: pretty interesting trend there that you can play these adjusted

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Speaker 4: lines and you'd be pretty profitable, Chad, So.

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Speaker 1: You're saying, go find an art line of the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: that minus two and a half, which would be an

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Speaker 1: interesting number to find. You'd get it at plus money

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Speaker 1: and then and then you also play the Niners at well,

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Speaker 1: you could play the Niners at whatever you want right now.

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Speaker 4: Play minus two and a half two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at it right now. It's plus one ten

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Speaker 4: forty nine minus one one and a half.

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Speaker 1: What are the Chiefs minus two and a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that is a fun bet. I'm seeing plus

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Speaker 4: one fifty and plus one forty so obviously shop around

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Speaker 4: for that one.

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Speaker 2: But it's like fifty cents better. Yeah, that's that's pretty

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Speaker 2: signific nice.

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Speaker 1: That is a great idea. I love that, like because simon, look,

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Speaker 1: we're looking.

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Speaker 4: We're already doing their show live. It's down to one

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Speaker 4: thirty now, you know. I no, No, that's crazy though, But.

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Speaker 1: Here's the thing I feel like, still good. I feel

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Speaker 1: like we are looking for opportunities to bet the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: but there's always a little bit of a fear because

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Speaker 1: we already know we're on the opposite side of what

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Speaker 1: a lot of professional betters are thinking. There's a little

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Speaker 1: bit of fear, So this gives us an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: sort of find the hedges that we like a lot

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Speaker 1: and sprinkle the field a little bit, because I would

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Speaker 1: rather have more money on the chief side of the

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Speaker 1: equation than on the niner side of the equation. But

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Speaker 1: I don't mind betting both sides of these, and.

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Speaker 4: I've got incredibly lucky betty these type of adjusted lines,

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Speaker 4: where just five years ago I took the cheats pretty

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Speaker 4: heavy on an adjusted line a minus six and a half,

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Speaker 4: and that was a dead number. They were losing, right Evan.

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Speaker 4: I believe they were losing heading and into the third

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Speaker 4: quarter of the fourth quarter, and they had a fluke

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Speaker 4: run at the end of the game that broke open

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Speaker 4: and they had winning by I don't know if it

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Speaker 4: was ten or eight, whatever it was. I ended up

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Speaker 4: covering the adjusted numbers. So it is scary betting these

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Speaker 4: adjusted numbers. But Evan just told you they hit like

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Speaker 4: these numbers hit. When you bet these teams to win,

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Speaker 4: they usually don't just win by a point or two.

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Speaker 4: They usually win by a couple and cover their cover

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Speaker 4: their adjusted lines. So yeah, I like to play, especially

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Speaker 4: at this big plus number. It's nice.

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Speaker 1: That was the Damian Williams got robbed of these MVP

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Speaker 1: in which I had Damian Williams winning the Super Bowl MVP.

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Speaker 2: That was Yeah. That was also.

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Speaker 1: I think the sign and we had. We weren't even

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Speaker 1: working together yet. You hadn't reached out to me. That

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Speaker 1: was the That was our first season. I believe that

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Speaker 1: was our first season because I have the.

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Speaker 4: Memory of coming up with you and Rebel and doing

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Speaker 4: it in studio. It wasn't even our studio, some like

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Speaker 4: random company you guys hired or let you use your studio. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: those were good times.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 1: That is right.

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Speaker 4: God.

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Speaker 1: That was nineteen, which means that was the pandemic, right

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Speaker 1: before the pandemic.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, four Jesus.

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Speaker 1: That was also, by the way, famously the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: where Patrick Mahomes was over his rushing yardage total and

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Speaker 1: because he was wasting time on the kneel downs. He

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Speaker 1: wasn't just taking a quick kneel down. He was dropping

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Speaker 1: back and back and back and back. Ended up losing

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Speaker 1: like twenty yards off his rushing total ended up under

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Speaker 1: the total. I also had that bet, all right, Evan Great,

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Speaker 1: I think our goal here is what is the bet

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Speaker 1: we can find in every single one of these? So

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Speaker 1: give me your next one. I think I'm sure.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure you're going to find a bet here

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Speaker 2: because you're already kind of on this side. But it's

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Speaker 2: more reinforcement. So the NF has struggled recently being a

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Speaker 2: favorite in Super Bowls. They're actually just one seven and

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Speaker 2: two ats in their last ten dating back to nineteen

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Speaker 2: ninety six. And we've seen recent examples Philly over KC

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Speaker 2: so the Rams Bengals, Rams didn't cover Carolina, was favored

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Speaker 2: over Denver, San Francisco against Baltimore, so recent examples. NFC

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Speaker 2: hasn't been great when they're laying points. Now, this one's

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Speaker 2: just to pick them, I get it. But now up

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Speaker 2: to two, so might hold there. And it's also worth

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Speaker 2: noting NFC haven't won three straight Super Bowls since ten

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Speaker 2: to twenty twelve. Right to that, it was nineteen eighty

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Speaker 2: five to ninety seven, so they had one two straight

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Speaker 2: entering last year. Lost again. But NFC just doesn't historically

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Speaker 2: do well in these games, at least recently.

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Speaker 1: I wonder why that is? What is our theory?

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Speaker 2: Brady and Mahomes have been pretty uh discussed as what

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Speaker 2: I say.

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Speaker 4: I would say the AFC has had the quarterbacks the

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Speaker 4: last twenty years, right, they had Brady Maning Mahomes. You know,

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Speaker 4: that's that's a nice, nice group of guys there. Where

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Speaker 4: the NFC has really been disappointment with our quarterbacks. I

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Speaker 4: mean Aaron Rodgers incredible career, one Super Bowl. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: we talk all the time about that team that the

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Speaker 4: Saints had, right, Sean Payton always getting them so close.

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Speaker 4: Drew Brees got one Super Bowl. So for me as

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Speaker 4: an NFC fan, it's really just been the disappointment of

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Speaker 4: our big quarterbacks. For usually the best team the NFC

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Speaker 4: does not make it to the Super Bowl, right, it's

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Speaker 4: usually the most complete team. So shockingly, when you go

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Speaker 4: through the quarterbacks who have one for the NFC, it's

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Speaker 4: the Eli Mannings and the Nick Foles of the world.

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Speaker 4: It's not the sexiest names. Where the AFC, it's all

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Speaker 4: the names, right, it's the Brady's, like you said, the

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Speaker 4: Brady's Mahomes. It's like the guys who really set the

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Speaker 4: sport apart. So that that's an interesting trend that does

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Speaker 4: make sense, though when you really think about it.

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Speaker 2: We didn't even mentioned Roethlisberger, like leaving him out. It's just,

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, the.

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Speaker 3: Biggest gap of sport a difference between the winner and

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Speaker 3: the loser the super Bowl. The winner your world champion.

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Speaker 3: They can never take it away from it, You'll never

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Speaker 3: forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in

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Speaker 3: the pile. All right.

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Speaker 1: So this actually does play to our advantage if we

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Speaker 1: like the Chiefs Simon our old friend Colin Cowherd. In

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Speaker 1: addition to the liking to say there is a sea

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Speaker 1: of money out there.

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Speaker 4: Because there's a sea of money out.

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Speaker 1: There, Colin Cowherd likes to bet on the better quarterback

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Speaker 1: the deeper you go into the season in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: To me, this is a super Bowl that is Taylor

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Speaker 1: made to test his bet on the best quarterback theory, right,

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Speaker 1: because you clearly have the better quarterback in Mahomes and

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Speaker 1: the much better team in the Niners. Last year you

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Speaker 1: had the better quarterback in Mahomes and the better team

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Speaker 1: in the Niners. You could argue that a few years ago,

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Speaker 1: you probably had the better quarterback in Brady and the

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Speaker 1: better team in the Chiefs, although it was you know,

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Speaker 1: yack and neck and potentially debatable. Yeah, but I like

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Speaker 1: this idea.

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Speaker 2: What about this one? So to follow up with your

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Speaker 2: concept and also Collins, I use this on convinced me

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Speaker 2: a few weeks ago. So last twenty years, super Bowl

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Speaker 2: winning quarterbacks sixty twenty four and two against a spread

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Speaker 2: and an underdog in the playoffs. And we talked about

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Speaker 2: this pre ring. It's like, that doesn't matter. I don't

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Speaker 2: need to know those stats postering it's sixty nine percent

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Speaker 2: against the spread. So when you talk about Mahomes like

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Speaker 2: he's been a dog in all these games, we keep

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Speaker 2: doubting him, but he's got the experience. And it's not

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Speaker 2: just Mahomes that's like a sixty game sample.

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Speaker 1: What have we said, We have said Patrick Mahomes is

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Speaker 1: impervious to pressure, I think on the field and off

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Speaker 1: the field. In fact, I think he thrives it, invites it, enjoys, it,

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Speaker 1: swims in it thinks it is the greatest elixir in

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Speaker 1: the history of elixirs. And I think other teams crack

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Speaker 1: in the face of Patrick Mahomes being able to endure

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Speaker 1: all those things, and that's.

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Speaker 4: A great Sorry, joh that's a great statuo of just

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Speaker 4: people like the new toy. Right, So just off to mind.

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Speaker 4: I'm thinking about these past super Bowl winning quarterbacks just

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Speaker 4: this year, who was an underdog in the playoffs Stafford

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Speaker 4: three and a half dog covered. I'm thinking about Nick

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Speaker 4: Foles's career after we won a super Bowl the next year.

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Speaker 4: He was a dog against the Bears. He's a dog

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Speaker 4: against the Saints. He covered both. So that is an

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Speaker 4: interesting stat of like these guys who've been in Super Bowls,

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Speaker 4: people kind of doubt them a little bit, and they

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Speaker 4: like the new toy and they make them the favorite.

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Speaker 4: Where it's like these guys who have been there, they

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Speaker 4: know what it takes, they know what it takes to

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Speaker 4: make these games like close and stay competitive in it.

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Speaker 4: So I love that statu and that's something I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: remember for going forward, where it's like, if I have

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Speaker 4: a super Bowl winning quarterback that's not you know, someone

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Speaker 4: we don't deem as good, I'm going to back that

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Speaker 4: quarterback right Like it's just it doesn't happen anymore, right,

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Speaker 4: Like we used to have the random team that you know,

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Speaker 4: even that Denver team with man Peyton Manning was a

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Speaker 4: Shelby and former self that defense carried him there. We

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Speaker 4: don't really get that anymore football, like you really do

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Speaker 4: need a guy like perty type where it's like you

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Speaker 4: don't need a top five quarterback. You need a guy

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Speaker 4: who can make big plays and big moments and carry

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Speaker 4: you at some point in the playoffs. So that's a

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Speaker 4: really interesting stat about X winning quarterbacks in the playoffs. People,

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Speaker 4: if they're a dog, you got to back them.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's talk about some totals. Simon and I

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Speaker 1: have already said we like the total. Let's at forty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. We like the under in this game.

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Speaker 1: What are your secret superstats saying about the total?

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Speaker 2: Pretty sharp, but I'll say this off the top. So

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Speaker 2: forty seven and a half would be the lowest Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl total since Super Bowl fifty. That was forty three

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Speaker 2: and I think that was Carolina Denver. I believe it

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Speaker 2: was the game, and it went under. Yeap went under,

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Speaker 2: And ironically enough, the other low totals in the last

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Speaker 2: fifteen years have all gone over. So it's four and

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Speaker 2: one to the forty seven and a half or less,

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Speaker 2: that being the one game that went under. But I

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Speaker 2: think it's just worth knowing that it is the lowest

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Speaker 2: total in eight years, and we really have We've seen

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Speaker 2: fifty fours, fifty fives, fifty threes, and I think the

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Speaker 2: style of Kansas City really just shaped this total. So

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Speaker 2: Casey is fourteen and six to the under this year,

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Speaker 2: best in the NFL. San Francisco ten to eight and

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Speaker 2: one to the over, one of the few teams to

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Speaker 2: the over. Obviously their offense pretty incredible. But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think you guys are on track there. And I'll add

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Speaker 2: one more thing, and this just goes to my point

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Speaker 2: before about the line being sharp in itself. So I

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Speaker 2: looked it up. Indoor games, indoor super Bowls, just eleven

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Speaker 2: and nine to the under, really no edge, but average

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Speaker 2: total in those games forty seven point six, average points

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Speaker 2: scored in those games forty seven point eight. Jesus, it's

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Speaker 2: on the money.

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Speaker 1: That is insane. I ALTI love how your brain works,

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Speaker 1: like no one else is thinking about that. Hey, this

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Speaker 1: is the total. Let me see what indoor super Bowls

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Speaker 1: are to the under. Oh and then let me take

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Speaker 1: it a step further. What is the average total in

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Speaker 1: those games. And oh, by the way, how much of

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Speaker 1: those teams scoring That is literally three next levels that

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Speaker 1: you took it to, Evan Abrams fucking amazing, Simon. Can

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Speaker 1: you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?

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Speaker 4: Game Time?

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Speaker 1: That's right, brother. I love game Time for two reasons. First,

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Speaker 1: they sponsor this show. Second, I actually use game Time

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Speaker 1: all the time because they have amazing last minute deals,

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Speaker 1: including pro and college sports. Speaking of which, I'm actually

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Speaker 1: going to open the game Time app right now from

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Speaker 1: our studio here in New York City. I am blocks

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Speaker 1: away from Madison Square Garden.

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Speaker 2: To look at this.

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Speaker 1: use the code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase.

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Speaker 1: Last minute ticket's lowest prices. Garn teed, All right, what happens.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say there's a run on the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs become the favorite. What's what's our thinking here, Evan, So.

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Speaker 2: This was a very fun topic before. We just saw

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Speaker 2: San Francisco go to minus two and now minus two

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Speaker 2: minus one twelve. So it feels like San Francisco at

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Speaker 2: least at the current moment, is heading that direction. But

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Speaker 2: I will answer the question. So, only three times in

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl history has the opening favorite been different than

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Speaker 2: the closing favorite. And it actually happened last year Chiefs

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Speaker 2: opened minus two, Eagles closed minus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: The other two times it happened Super Bowl forty nine

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Speaker 2: Patriots Seahawks, Seahawks open favorite, Patriots close favorite, and then

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Speaker 2: the year before that Seerral forty eight Seahawks Broncos Seahawks

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00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 2: open minus one, Broncos closed minus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: So not something that happens a lot. It's more of

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Speaker 2: a also a recent thing, because I think market movement

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Speaker 2: is more of a recent thing. But it's another thing

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Speaker 2: worth noting.

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Speaker 5: It starts with a whistle and ends with a gun.

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Speaker 5: Sixty minutes of close inaction from kickoff to touchdown. This

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Speaker 5: is pro football the sport.

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Speaker 2: Them all the time.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about two things that are tied to each

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Speaker 1: other right now, experience in the Super Bowl and momentum

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Speaker 1: heading into the Super Bowl. Does it matter? Like, look,

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Speaker 1: we're banking literally banking on Patrick Mahomes having been there,

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Speaker 1: so does it matter?

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I'll answer this two different ways. The first one,

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Speaker 2: so a quarterback that walks into the Super Bowl with

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Speaker 2: say two Super Bowl appearances or going into a second

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Speaker 2: and the other guy going into his first, doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 2: It's basically fifty five percent forty eight percent. I really

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Speaker 2: just ignore it. The one that does matter is even

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Speaker 2: more experienced, and this would be the twenty second time

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Speaker 2: in superbl history where one quarterback has a two plus

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl experience gap. Those quarterbacks are thirteen and eight

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Speaker 2: straight up, which makes sense. You've been there more than

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Speaker 2: one time, you've seen the show, you've seen the dance,

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Speaker 2: you know about the two weeks and I'd have to

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Speaker 2: look back. But I would also say most of those

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks with the two plus experience gap probably had a

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Speaker 2: head coach that had been there as well. So I

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Speaker 2: think those two things coincidning together probably makes up that

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Speaker 2: thirteen and eight stat All right, talk to me about momentum.

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Speaker 2: This one's fascinating. So the Chiefs have covered five in

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Speaker 2: a row entering the Super Bowl. Casey is the seventeenth

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Speaker 2: team to cover at least five straight games entering the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Now when their opponent has not covered consecutive games,

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Speaker 2: that streaking team is five and two straight up and

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Speaker 2: six zero to one against the spread. Basically walking into

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Speaker 2: the game hot, keep rolling. Now flip it for a second.

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Speaker 2: So the forty nine Ers, Now this is why this

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl is really unique. The forty nine Ers are

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Speaker 2: just the second team in the Super Bowl era to

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Speaker 2: make the game losing three in a row against the spread,

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Speaker 2: remember two in the playoffs, and they also lost against

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Speaker 2: the rams Ats in Week eighteen. The only other team

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Speaker 2: to do that two thousand and seven. Two thousand and

404
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Speaker 2: eight Patriots, they lost five in a row against the

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Speaker 2: spread entering the Super Bowl. And of course the difference

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Speaker 2: their lines were if I remember fourteens thirteen seventeens leading

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Speaker 2: up to that game, because of how dominant they were.

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Speaker 2: But of course that Patriots team lost to the Giants

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Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl. But interesting nonetheless that you just

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Speaker 2: have two teams kind of entering in a different circumstances.

411
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Speaker 2: San Francisco only winning those playoff games by three points

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Speaker 2: and three points as a team who had I think

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Speaker 2: it was eleven plus wins of digits during the regular season.

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Speaker 2: Just something we've never seen before.

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Speaker 1: Simon, what do we think of momentum as a factor

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Speaker 1: in this game? Did you consider it at all in

417
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Speaker 1: the handicap?

418
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Speaker 4: I don't, just because it is two weeks in between, right,

419
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 4: Like that's that's especially in their lives, that is going

420
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Speaker 4: to feel like ten years, right, Like I can't imagine

421
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Speaker 4: and in your game and now the two weeks build

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Speaker 4: up to the super Bowl. But I think the biggest

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Speaker 4: thing is just how can these guys manage the end game?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 4: And we talked about that thirty minute halftime, like that's

426
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Speaker 4: a big deal. Like a lot of guys and even

427
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Speaker 4: Eagles players talked about it. They were too much of

428
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Speaker 4: them in their own heads being up ten points on

429
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Speaker 4: Mahomes at halftime that when they came out, well, Mahomes

430
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Speaker 4: hit them in the mouth. They like stunned them a

431
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Speaker 4: little bit. They were like, Wow, this guy is not

432
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Speaker 4: going to quit, and like that's what me and you

433
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Speaker 4: are banking on right, we're banking on the Mahomes factor

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Speaker 4: of he plays these mental mind games. So we talk

435
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Speaker 4: all the time how football, the difference between the best

436
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 4: players on each team is so small that momentum dictates

437
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 4: so many of these games. And we literally just lived

438
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 4: through in that Lion's forty nine ers game. We talked

439
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 4: about it. It's like that fourth down drop going back

440
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: to the touchdown that the whole even the Lionspiders after

441
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 4: the game talked about like that changed the entire game.

442
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 4: So the running joke will always be what will happen

443
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 4: in this SUPERWL Will they turn the lights off again

444
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 4: and try to get a team back into it? You

445
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 4: never know with this Super Bowl. So it is a

446
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 4: real thing in these type of games.

447
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think there's something to it with this game,

448
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 1: only because I don't think momentum is a thing where

449
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: it's I think it's building on success, right, And I

450
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 1: think one of the most important factors in this game

451
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: that has probably overlooked is you handicap these based on

452
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: season long results. And I think the Chiefs the last

453
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: five weeks of the season are a much different team

454
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: than the Chiefs at the beginning of the season. When

455
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 1: they were incorporating all these receivers. You look the last

456
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 1: five weeks of the season, including playoffs. Storyline all season

457
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs was drops, drops, drops, drops, drop, Patrick

458
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 1: Mahome frustrated, Travis Kelcey not playing as well. You look

459
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 1: the last five weeks, the only guy who dropped passes

460
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: and this was before the AFC Title game was Travis

461
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: kelce and Rashi Rice Marquez Valdez Scanling. Those guys were

462
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 1: catching the balls that needed to be caught. A lot

463
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: less frustration from the homes. Somehow this team changed the

464
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: wheels on the truck as they were moving in the

465
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 1: middle of the season and got themselves to a Super Bowl.

466
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: And I say somehow facaciously because they have the greatest

467
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 1: quarterback who's ever list Not to be outrageous, Simon, I

468
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 1: want you to make Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor

469
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: of the NFL part of your game day. Will you

470
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: be a during fifty eight Little Caesars Pizza to celebrate

471
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty eight, Simming, I gotta order online during

472
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 1: our pizza pizza pre game, which is now all day

473
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: on NFL game days plus Pro Bowl Sunday, and get

474
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 1: ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little

475
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Simon got

476
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: a new motto. What do you think about this one?

477
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 1: I just invented. If winning your bets feels right and just,

478
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: you must be a fan of crazy Crust. However you

479
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 1: order your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning, everyone

480
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,199
Speaker 1: scores with convenient delivery or our in store pizza portal pickup,

481
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,680
Speaker 1: Grab some friends, enjoy a few slices during the game.

482
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 5: Pro football, the men who play it of a best

483
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 5: bear are discipline professionals who perform on a stage one

484
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 5: hundred yards long.

485
00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: Evan, of all your stats, we have so many on here,

486
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 1: which is the final one we should discuss before we

487
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 1: get out of here?

488
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: I feel like we have to discuss this one because

489
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: it is Matt Mitchell's favorite. He's pushed it to the

490
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 2: top three to four times. So it's not about Evan,

491
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 2: It's about Matt Mitchell, which is really what this podcast

492
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: about anyway.

493
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: So, by the way, the fact that someone else can

494
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: pile on Matt Mitchell with sarcasm and he cannot respond

495
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 1: is just glorious.

496
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:27,200
Speaker 2: That's why I'm here.

497
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: You having an unnatural allegiance to losers. It does not

498
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: like you.

499
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 2: Let's talk salary cap before we get out of here.

500
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 2: So the NFL is just a completely different game than

501
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: it was before. But the salary cap was instituted in

502
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety four and only two times as a team

503
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 2: won the Super Bowl the quarterback taking up more than

504
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 2: thirteen percent of their cap Steve Young in nineteen ninety

505
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 2: four and Patrick Mahomes last year. Patrick Mahomes last year

506
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 2: was that I believe seventeen point two percent, seventeen percent

507
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 2: around that area. This year he's at sixteen point eight percent.

508
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 2: He can do it again. Now I want to flip

509
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 2: it because this is kind of what it was last

510
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 2: year as well, So Purty can take up another story.

511
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 2: He takes up only zero point three seven percent of

512
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers cap. Since a salary cap began

513
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 2: in ninety four, six quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl

514
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 2: playing on their rookie contracts. And mister Mitchell would like

515
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,199
Speaker 2: me to ask you, can you guys name any of

516
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 2: them winning Super Bowl on rookie contract?

517
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: Simon, do you want to go first?

518
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 4: Russell Wilson one?

519
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: Wow?

520
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 4: I know that was the easy one, though, I mean,

521
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 4: did Tommy get one?

522
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 1: Tommy Tommy?

523
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 4: Okay, okay.

524
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 1: For those who don't know about Simon's close personal relationship,

525
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: he's talking about his friend Tom Brady.

526
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 4: I am my god.

527
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 2: Oh, Roberty, good, Roethlisberger. Wow, well done. That's another one.

528
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 1: Wow, Simon got three hard ones. I can't do it.

529
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: I have the script in front of you, so I

530
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: have the answers.

531
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: Got it.

532
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 4: I'm done. I'm done. I'm gonna beat up our last

533
00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 4: two minutes trying to do this.

534
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes twenty nineteen, Eli Manning in two thousand and seven. Oh,

535
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 1: and this one's trickier. Doesn't really count, does Carson Wentz

536
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: twenty seventeen.

537
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 2: Ha.

538
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,919
Speaker 1: Pretty good company for brock Purty to join if you

539
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: can join it right, Evan.

540
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: That I'd probably say their team might be the best

541
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,119
Speaker 2: of the bunch if I look very quickly through that.

542
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 2: So that's one that's kind of interesting as well.

543
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: Evan, great job, Thanks for joining. As always, you will

544
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 1: be on the rest of the podcasts throughout the end

545
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl season. Catch the Favorites live on YouTube,

546
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 1: So for those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget give us

547
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Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: Also Last Last, Last, Last, Last, Last Chance. Submit your

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Speaker 1: five email podcast at actionnetwork dot com. Don't forget it's

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Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until we

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