Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host, Paul. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I
Speaker 1: am Paul Chargie and my co host is Brian Johnson.
Speaker 1: What's up, Charge, Good to talk to you. It's a
Speaker 1: beautiful summer day. It's now summertime. It's taken a while,
Speaker 1: but we're finally at summer. The depressing part, especially for
Speaker 1: those of us in the northern parts of North America,
Speaker 1: the days are gonna start getting shorter. Come on already,
Speaker 1: that's not cool. And for those who don't know, Minnesota
Speaker 1: in the summertime is the absolute best. At its peak,
Speaker 1: it's the suns up at nine thirty at night. Still. Yes, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's awesome. Yeah, it's an art. It is great. In
Speaker 1: January it's dark at four. Uh so you know, we
Speaker 1: pay the price for it. Other times, I'll take Minnesota
Speaker 1: winters over living in Florida or Arizona in the summer
Speaker 1: all day. I can't take Florida, I know, I can't
Speaker 1: take the humidity. I used to live in Northern Virginia,
Speaker 1: d C. And those summers were intolerable. Yeah, I can
Speaker 1: do Arizona, even though I I just you know, I
Speaker 1: know it's literally hundred and twenty degrees some days in
Speaker 1: the summer. But to me, that whole the whole dry
Speaker 1: heat thing, it works way better than humidity. It is.
Speaker 1: We're gonna dive into the a f C North and
Speaker 1: a little bit like we did with the a f
Speaker 1: C East last week. The goal here is to tell
Speaker 1: you not what this each team did last year. She
Speaker 1: already know that, but it's really forward looking, Brian, as
Speaker 1: to what each team is going to do this year.
Speaker 1: Which players we've identified that we like, how we think
Speaker 1: this offense is gonna work, Coaching changes, personnel changes, all
Speaker 1: the stuff you need to know for the four teams
Speaker 1: of the a f C North. And before we get
Speaker 1: to that, let's mention guilloteen Leagues dot Com. Okay, we
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Speaker 1: last man standing, you join the other west men or
Speaker 1: women standing for a brand new draft, sort of brand
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Speaker 1: all the league's. All the league winners get together for
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Speaker 1: super chop at guillotea leagues dot com. Brian, Let's begin
Speaker 1: the a f C North with the Cincinnati Bengals. Now,
Speaker 1: for regular listeners, they may know that this is your
Speaker 1: new adopted favorite team. You were previously on the Giants,
Speaker 1: you gave up on them, and they still pay dave yentleman,
Speaker 1: so I refuse to give them. Let's let's go to
Speaker 1: a team you're following very closely and has I think
Speaker 1: maybe if you know you'd if you asked me to
Speaker 1: pick the team in the a f C that's going
Speaker 1: to improve the most by wins, I might just pick
Speaker 1: the Bengals were not for the fact that there's two
Speaker 1: other really good teams in that division. But I think
Speaker 1: the Bengals get so much better this year. I do
Speaker 1: as well, and reality football aside, they're gonna be one
Speaker 1: of the most full and fantasy football teams in that
Speaker 1: in that division. UM real quick to recap last year.
Speaker 1: UM Zach Taylor is returning as the head coach. He
Speaker 1: also acts as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals. I
Speaker 1: believe this will be his second year, maybe his third year,
Speaker 1: still a still very young coach. Last year, Bengals finished
Speaker 1: thirty in yards per game twenty nine points per game. Obviously,
Speaker 1: things went way south when Joe Burrow went down in
Speaker 1: Week eleven with the knee injury. He was posting pretty
Speaker 1: good numbers. The Bengals weren't really necessarily winning games, but
Speaker 1: Burrows also just getting murdered behind that offensive line, which
Speaker 1: will which we'll get into. But the Bengals passed the
Speaker 1: ball a lot. They passed the ball over six at
Speaker 1: the time last year, that was thirteen most in the league.
Speaker 1: They only ran the ball thirty nine point five for
Speaker 1: and that was bottom twelve in the NFL. So they
Speaker 1: were much more of a past friendly team. That's because
Speaker 1: they were behind a lot and don't expect that to
Speaker 1: change a whole lot. Not a ton of draftable players
Speaker 1: for the Bengals. Uh, it's really starting with the highest
Speaker 1: drafted guy, Joe Mixing, Jamaar, Chase te Higgins, Tyler Boyd,
Speaker 1: and then Joe Burrow. Um, we won't even really talk
Speaker 1: about the tight ends and help to to follow the
Speaker 1: script from last week. We'll start with the the riskiest
Speaker 1: guy based on a DP and I think most people
Speaker 1: with lean Joe Mixon off the top of their head,
Speaker 1: just based on last year. Only played six games, totally
Speaker 1: lost season. But he's not the riskiest guy for me.
Speaker 1: It's it's Jamaar Chase, who one of the three elite
Speaker 1: Bengals wide receivers. Amazing talent coming out of l s U.
Speaker 1: As we all know, first wide receiver drafted in the
Speaker 1: NFL Draft. Did not play last year though, but uh,
Speaker 1: right now for L s U. That is so I'm
Speaker 1: a little concerned there. Um, you can have a slower ramp,
Speaker 1: but it's possible. Certainly Kenvia right now, he's going off
Speaker 1: the board wide receiver overall. That's that's so high and
Speaker 1: the highest of the Bengals wide receivers. But Tee Higgins
Speaker 1: has proven himself to be a very good player like
Speaker 1: we thought he was going to be. And I don't
Speaker 1: think there's suddenly going to get I don't think there's
Speaker 1: suddenly going to change the whole scheme just to fit
Speaker 1: a rookie receiver. No, and don't forget Tyler Boyd who
Speaker 1: is going wide receiver thirty three, not far behind these guys.
Speaker 1: Strictly talking wide receivers, I'm going with the cheapest guy
Speaker 1: in Boyd who is a proven contributor with very high
Speaker 1: upside on the in most weeks, at least when Joe
Speaker 1: Burrow is healthy. So for me, Jamaar Chase, I'm out
Speaker 1: in redraft. Of course I like his long term prospects
Speaker 1: a lot more than this year, but wide receiver twenty six,
Speaker 1: when I can take a more proven guy like Chase Claypool,
Speaker 1: Juju Smith, Schuster even and Odell Beckham a little sketchy,
Speaker 1: I'd rather take my chances on those somewhat proven commodities
Speaker 1: over Jamar Chase, who, again a rookie, sat out last year.
Speaker 1: Maybe Joe Burrow isn't after last year, Well, the line
Speaker 1: keep him alive again. It is a fair question because
Speaker 1: the line continues to be ranked. I think Pro Football
Speaker 1: Focus ranked the Bengals coming into this year, so the
Speaker 1: you know, current the current offensive line, I think they
Speaker 1: ranked them thirtieth. The Bengals did draft Jackson Carmen, offensive
Speaker 1: tackle lot of Clemson in the second round, so they
Speaker 1: bolstered that line a little bit. But yeah, I'm just
Speaker 1: out on Jamaar Chase and and Redraft this year. Um,
Speaker 1: again two very good wide receivers in the room with them.
Speaker 1: And also the guy with the most upside is there
Speaker 1: who could soak up significant targets and touchdowns, and that
Speaker 1: is Joe Mixon who I am going with as the
Speaker 1: player with the most upside. UM. He's going, uh mid
Speaker 1: second most leagues like RB twelve, which feels just about
Speaker 1: right for me for for mixing. UM. People just remember
Speaker 1: last year he played six games, didn't do much when
Speaker 1: he played just a total total loss season, But the
Speaker 1: years before mixing was seeing Bell cow usage two two
Speaker 1: opportunities in and that's cards and targets, uh, than in
Speaker 1: three twenty three opportunities. Uh, it wasn't really racking up
Speaker 1: the touchdowns then, but that was John Kittena and I
Speaker 1: don't know what other MESSI or not. John I didn't
Speaker 1: do that on purpose and Dton they're essentially the same
Speaker 1: person at this point. Um. One had no hair and
Speaker 1: one had red hair. That's a key distinguishing feature right there.
Speaker 1: My bad anyway, Yeah, basically the same player. Geo Bernard's gone,
Speaker 1: and so there's a lot of people think mixing could
Speaker 1: be sitting on a bigger PPR season than he's had
Speaker 1: in recent years, and that might be another factor in
Speaker 1: the case of Mixing. I'm surprised he's going where he's going.
Speaker 1: I really thought after last year and the fact that
Speaker 1: Mixings never been a gigantic fantasy producer. You know, he's
Speaker 1: never been like a top five fantasy producer. He's always
Speaker 1: been like RB ten, RB twelve, RB eight. I thought
Speaker 1: that coming off this this last season, that he would
Speaker 1: fall farther than RB twelve, that he'd be more like
Speaker 1: fifteen sixteen seventeen. You get him in the middle of
Speaker 1: the third round. I don't think you know, the middle
Speaker 1: of the second round. To me, for Mixing, feels like
Speaker 1: you said, it feels about right. But again, he stays healthy.
Speaker 1: Burrows stays healthy, that receiving group fully clicks that line level.
Speaker 1: If the line is not awful, there's there's top five
Speaker 1: upside saying he'll get there. But the upside exists. Burrows fascinating.
Speaker 1: Just so many ways for him to win. Right now
Speaker 1: with the three receivers, Mixing catching the ball, I just
Speaker 1: feel like and Burrow looks so good. He was clearly
Speaker 1: a candidate for highest upside to quarterback is this is
Speaker 1: like the deepest class of quarterbacks I can remember said
Speaker 1: at quarterback, it's there is certainly upside for Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: as well. Let's let's move over to the Cleveland Browns. Uh.
Speaker 1: And this is an offense that took a massive step
Speaker 1: forward under who would ultimately become NFL Coach of the Year,
Speaker 1: Kevin Stefanski. In many ways, Stefanski emulates his former employer
Speaker 1: Minnesota with a run heavy attack that ads its quarterbacks
Speaker 1: to execute a handful of key plays rather than asking
Speaker 1: their quarterback to go, like, win every game with your
Speaker 1: arm um, which I think is very smart. And it
Speaker 1: it turned and Baker Mayfield turned in a very good
Speaker 1: season last year. Cleveland was top five in rushing attempts
Speaker 1: and bottom five in passing attempts last year. And that's
Speaker 1: because they've got Nick Chubb, who's awesome, Kareem Hunt who's
Speaker 1: very good, and um and again, and I just think philosophically,
Speaker 1: this is what Kevin Stefanski was raised in. And look
Speaker 1: what it got them to last year through the playoffs.
Speaker 1: There's a good team. There was a quote from Travis
Speaker 1: Kelsey about two weeks ago in which he said, the
Speaker 1: biggest threat to the Chiefs, I'm paraphrasing, the biggest stretch
Speaker 1: to the Chiefs is the Cleveland Browns. And He's right.
Speaker 1: Defense massively improved in the in the off season. What
Speaker 1: was the There was a crucial play when the Browns
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs played in the a f C Championship, Right,
Speaker 1: I remember there was a Cleveland got jobbed on something.
Speaker 1: Um Rochard Higgins. Remember it was like the phone lot
Speaker 1: of bounds and that was yes. And that's definitely the
Speaker 1: end zone deal. So the stuff is tough. Baker Mayfield
Speaker 1: is um it doesn't like I said, doesn't have to
Speaker 1: throw off him. That doesn't mean that he was conservative
Speaker 1: in what they asked Baker Mayfield to do. So don't
Speaker 1: confuse a lot of volume with Mayfield into thinking that
Speaker 1: they didn't take shots sound Field with Mayfield, because they
Speaker 1: really did. They've got that powerful, effective running game that
Speaker 1: pinches the defense is up close to the line of
Speaker 1: scrimmage and then here comes Baker Mayfield over the top. Now,
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb Kareem Hunt were both in the top ten
Speaker 1: in seeing eight men in the box, which again I'm
Speaker 1: telling you, you know, defense has really stacked the line
Speaker 1: of scrimmage for Chubb and Hunt, so that Baker Mayfield's
Speaker 1: nine intended air yards was the NFL's fourth deepest last year.
Speaker 1: So he's throwing over the box and so he was
Speaker 1: throwing downfield. So even though he wasn't throwing for volume,
Speaker 1: he was executing the big plays that fantasy owners do
Speaker 1: want to have. And I love that about Makefield Mayfield
Speaker 1: and also blessed with the league's longest time to throw
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield at three point zero five seconds. That's a
Speaker 1: full second law younger then Ben Roethlisberg, who will talk
Speaker 1: about in a minute his white outs. Odell Beckham returns
Speaker 1: from his Week seven a c L injury and is
Speaker 1: on track to be available in training camp and the
Speaker 1: start of the season. I saw someone tweet and it's
Speaker 1: probably true. I didn't I didn't verify it. But the
Speaker 1: last time Odell Beckham was a wide receiver on the
Speaker 1: top twelve wide receiver. So is Jordie Nielsen? Are you serious?
Speaker 1: That feels like a long time ago, doesn't it? Wow?
Speaker 1: Odell's first the six full games that he played last
Speaker 1: year in his first year with Kevin Stefanski. We're very inconsistent.
Speaker 1: He had two very good games, he had two very
Speaker 1: bad games, and two just right in the middle. Um
Speaker 1: Stefanski has been adamant that oh b J is part
Speaker 1: of the team's future, that they planned to use him significantly,
Speaker 1: and really, when you look at the rest of the
Speaker 1: Browns wide receivers, yeah, Odell Beckham is gonna be a
Speaker 1: big part of this because the only guys really aren't
Speaker 1: at all that promising. I don't think Jervis Landry, no
Speaker 1: love well, we'll get him. I did say all of them.
Speaker 1: Um troubling last or, Odell Beckham had the league's lowest
Speaker 1: yards after catch one point eight yards. You played six games.
Speaker 1: I mean that's not like a two game sample size.
Speaker 1: That's a six game sample size. One point eight yards
Speaker 1: after catch for Odell Beckham, and that should worry you.
Speaker 1: You can fall forward for forward for one point eight yards. Uh.
Speaker 1: Jarvis Landry is a known quantity who has been incredibly
Speaker 1: consistent throughout his career. You know the deal here, Short targets,
Speaker 1: short catches, a few touchdowns. You want like four or
Speaker 1: five six touchdowns in the season. Jeffers Slander is your guy.
Speaker 1: Um Donovan people Jones saw his snap count skyrocket in
Speaker 1: the second half of the season, and then later into
Speaker 1: the playoffs. He put together three really strong games in December,
Speaker 1: which gives you a suggestion that he will continue to
Speaker 1: get more use this year and in this his second season.
Speaker 1: Donovan People Jones, there there's a scenario here if you
Speaker 1: believe Odell is kind of hooked between the injuries and
Speaker 1: you know how long it's been you mentioned Jordy Nelson era,
Speaker 1: how long it's been since he was a really good
Speaker 1: wide receiver. There's a scenario where Donovan People's Jones gets
Speaker 1: a lot more time, and then that doesn't all have
Speaker 1: to come out of Odell Beckham. You know, you're outside
Speaker 1: receivers to start the season are gonna be Odell Beckham,
Speaker 1: Landry in the slot and and Donovan People's Jones. Chard
Speaker 1: Higgins is out of this thing. I think that they
Speaker 1: did draft and I'm not too concerned this year, but
Speaker 1: Anthony Schwartz in the third round as a speed guy,
Speaker 1: speed guy, I don't think he I don't think he
Speaker 1: will be a reliable factor this year. I like that
Speaker 1: they added a speed guy because, as I mentioned earlier,
Speaker 1: Baker mayfield these deep passes that he throws. They don't
Speaker 1: have speed at the receiver position until he came along,
Speaker 1: And so I think he's he's gonna be at all.
Speaker 1: He will splash with some big plays over the course
Speaker 1: of the season, but I don't expect him to be
Speaker 1: a sizeable factor throughout the year. Uh, Fantasy owners are
Speaker 1: gonna be frustrated again by the Oounds tight ends. This
Speaker 1: is a mess. Sophomore Harrison Bryant only posted one fantasy
Speaker 1: relevant game as a rookie last year, but on this show,
Speaker 1: that was very impressive. He had a two touchdown game
Speaker 1: last year and you called that um And I don't
Speaker 1: know if it was Hooper out that game. I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't think you know he wasn't. It was just
Speaker 1: a great matchup and it was And I remember rolling
Speaker 1: him hard on d K because he was like too
Speaker 1: grand yeah, and Beckham probably just got hurt and stuff
Speaker 1: like that. So anyway, so Bryant averaged about forty snaps
Speaker 1: per game, which is more than you want if you
Speaker 1: own Austin Hooper, but not enough if as you want
Speaker 1: if you own Harrison Bryants, So that parts a little
Speaker 1: bit troubling. Austin Hooper averaged fifty one snaps a game.
Speaker 1: That's only an eleventh snap difference. If you think Harrison
Speaker 1: Brian gets better this year his snaps, you go to fifty,
Speaker 1: Austin Hooper could regress down to closer to forty, and
Speaker 1: maybe those two swap for each other. And basically the
Speaker 1: long short of it is, neither one is all that
Speaker 1: fantasy viable. There's there's just too much competition at the
Speaker 1: tight end position, not in redraft. I like Bryant. Uh
Speaker 1: So Hooper's contract by the way, so let since you're
Speaker 1: talking about I looked it up. Um Hooper is getting
Speaker 1: cut at the end of this year. Two is his
Speaker 1: There's a there's a big jump in Hooper's salary. They're
Speaker 1: not going to pay him that. So Hooper will get
Speaker 1: restructured or cut at the end of this year, and
Speaker 1: then it's Harrison Bryant's job in two. All right, let's
Speaker 1: talk about the running backs. It's a contract here for
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb and he is going to get paid, and
Speaker 1: I think it'll probably be by Cleveland because this is
Speaker 1: a run first team and they know Jubb is great.
Speaker 1: Last year, as I mentioned earlier, you saw eight men
Speaker 1: in the box more than any other player with his
Speaker 1: number of carries. He had a d ninety carries and
Speaker 1: he saw more eight men in the box than anybody else.
Speaker 1: Yet he's somehow finished first in yards per carry over
Speaker 1: expectation at one point seven five yards per carry over
Speaker 1: x expectation according to next Gen Stats, and his five
Speaker 1: point six yards per carry was second only to J. K. Dobbins.
Speaker 1: We will talk about later. If Kareem Hunt wasn't in
Speaker 1: the picture, by the way, probably the two best running
Speaker 1: backs ever played together in NFL history. Possibly um Hunt's
Speaker 1: got his stains on his career, of course, But if
Speaker 1: Hunt was out of the picture, Chubby is right in
Speaker 1: one oh one oh yeah right, you know if you yeah,
Speaker 1: if you told me that caree months gonna go down
Speaker 1: in a freak dirigible accident in week one, Chubb could
Speaker 1: be the first player taken. For sure. As it stands,
Speaker 1: Hunts sipens off work. But I wonder if ultimately, in
Speaker 1: some ways it doesn't serve to keep Chubb healthy and
Speaker 1: efficient so that Chub doesn't hit the three touch mark,
Speaker 1: which we kind of love his fantasy guys. But on
Speaker 1: the other side of it, Chubb's always is always because
Speaker 1: the relatively modest volume that he gets. He's always fresh,
Speaker 1: and he runs so hard. Hunt did sign a contract
Speaker 1: extension last year. UM, but averages almost as many total
Speaker 1: touches as Chubb does, in part because he catches more passes.
Speaker 1: But Hunts receiving is weirdly underutilized in this offense and
Speaker 1: only throw to him three times a game. So I'm
Speaker 1: you know Hunt to me is Uh is a prototypical
Speaker 1: flex player. I don't think I want him as an
Speaker 1: RB one or two if I can avoid it. Uh.
Speaker 1: He feels like a flex style running back. So who's
Speaker 1: the riskiest player at his current ADP? I think it
Speaker 1: is Cream Hunt. He's going off the board running back
Speaker 1: twenty two, which is kind of a lot when you
Speaker 1: know that the best work goes to Chubb and Chub
Speaker 1: is so good. UM the player with the most upside
Speaker 1: compared to a DP. I really struggled with this, really
Speaker 1: struggled with this. UM. I ultimately settled on Odell Beckham,
Speaker 1: who's currently wide receiver twenty six going in the sixth round. UM,
Speaker 1: after Jamar Chase, give me Beckham Beckham over him all day? Right,
Speaker 1: Baker through twenty six touchdowns like last year, let's say
Speaker 1: Baker gets a little bit better this year, another year
Speaker 1: in this in the system, and Odell Beckham is healthy
Speaker 1: all season. You know what if he gets to thirty touchdowns,
Speaker 1: how many of those thirty go to Odell Beckham? Jarvislanders
Speaker 1: not a touchdown? Guy um Kareem Hunt might catch four,
Speaker 1: Chubb might catch two, tight Ends might catch eight. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, ten could go to Odell Beckham. So I
Speaker 1: think he's the player with the most upside. Let's take
Speaker 1: a break. When we come back, we'll break down Baltimore
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh are favorite players for versus ADP are riskiest
Speaker 1: players a DP will break down the offenses when we
Speaker 1: come back. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Jarchie and
Speaker 1: Brian Johnson with you. We're breaking down the a f
Speaker 1: C North and the Baltimore Ravens. Brian, Yeah, we just
Speaker 1: talked about a very run heavy team in the Browns,
Speaker 1: but no team was more run heavy than the Ravens
Speaker 1: last year, who ran the ball fifty percent. At the time,
Speaker 1: it was the highest clip in the league. Now, of course,
Speaker 1: they run their quarterback more than any team in the league,
Speaker 1: and that adds to the overall run total and it
Speaker 1: definitely does. And if you're the you have the highest
Speaker 1: run play percentage, that means you have the lowest pass
Speaker 1: play percentage in the league. Baltimore dead last there, of course,
Speaker 1: UM nine in points per game. Last year, the offense
Speaker 1: was very effective, but only nineteenth in yards In essencely
Speaker 1: it took a major step back from when it was
Speaker 1: most in the NFL. UM same coaches in play though
Speaker 1: from last year. In twenty nineteen, John harbaughd head coach
Speaker 1: Greg Roman and an offensive coordinators who know, big change there,
Speaker 1: Roman says, and he says, it's like every offseason we're
Speaker 1: gonna pass more. But you know what, do some degree.
Speaker 1: Greg Roman just is Greg Roman, and you know he
Speaker 1: is the guy who who you know, we've learned that
Speaker 1: Greg Roman is. He's he's uh, he is a run
Speaker 1: first offensive coordinator. Yeah, and uh, they've got some good
Speaker 1: running backs into with J. K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards who
Speaker 1: they like a lot, and even Justice Hill. Justice hillisn't
Speaker 1: Chopped Liver by any meating well, he's played like chopped
Speaker 1: Liver in in the smattering of work he's gotten in
Speaker 1: his career. Chopped Liver is the saying, though, right I
Speaker 1: don't know what it means other than who wants to
Speaker 1: eat chopped liver? Have you ever even eaten? I have,
Speaker 1: and I did not like it. I didn't like it either.
Speaker 1: I grew up in a household w my mom loved liver,
Speaker 1: cow tong Nope, thank god. Um. And when my dad
Speaker 1: would go out of town, which he did all too
Speaker 1: often for work, she would then use that as the
Speaker 1: opportunity to cook the liver because she didn't have to
Speaker 1: hear any flag from my dad. And that meant me
Speaker 1: and my brother got stuck with the plate that shows
Speaker 1: up for dinner with liver and lima beans. You're like, oh, man,
Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm thinking of this, but have
Speaker 1: you ever had octopus? Yeah? So like some of the
Speaker 1: best meat I've ever had. I would that. Really, it's
Speaker 1: so chilly. You didn't get the robbery. Maybe I didn't.
Speaker 1: I meant bad. Well he was in Minnesota. We don't
Speaker 1: get done anyway. Part of it? What were we talking about? Well,
Speaker 1: Greg Roman for a while. Um, well, we'll stick with
Speaker 1: the running backs and I'll call out my riskiest player
Speaker 1: for the Ravens, and that's J. K. Dobbins, who was
Speaker 1: the highest raven drafted among all positions right now, He's
Speaker 1: going off the board at running back sixteen, right after
Speaker 1: DeAndre Swift, Antonio Gibson, before guys like Clyde Edwards, A Lair,
Speaker 1: Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs. We don't really like him here
Speaker 1: on this show. Guys, we do like Chris Carson right
Speaker 1: after there. So looking at Dobbins, just worried about the volume. Again,
Speaker 1: we saw it last year. Didn't get a ton Baltimore
Speaker 1: didn't an though, you know at the end of the
Speaker 1: year when he was getting just like twelve touches, touches
Speaker 1: he was cashing on in those opportunities. He was. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he scored in seven straight games from Week eleventh to
Speaker 1: to the wild card game. He totaled eight touchdowns during
Speaker 1: that span. But and that was when they started to
Speaker 1: phase out mark Ingram at the you know, on the
Speaker 1: second half of the season, and they they started ratcheting
Speaker 1: up his workload, not to like, you know, workhorse caliber,
Speaker 1: but it was still just like an even split with
Speaker 1: with like you said, during that hot stretch, Uh, he'd
Speaker 1: never topped fifteen carries, never had more than two catches.
Speaker 1: And again, the thing is he didn't need him mo.
Speaker 1: He was still effective, but I don't. Yeah, he was effective,
Speaker 1: but I don't care looking at his a DP where
Speaker 1: he's getting drafted. It's expensive for a guy who touches
Speaker 1: the ball. I need more guaranteed touches. And I think
Speaker 1: he has two hundred, two hundred and fifty opportunities carries
Speaker 1: and targets this year, not the three D three that
Speaker 1: I'd like to see from guys going right in his range. Again, um,
Speaker 1: I think c h gets that kind of volume. Antonio
Speaker 1: give Gibson hopefully, and guys going after Chris Carson you
Speaker 1: like a lot and way down the not way down
Speaker 1: the list, but rby Miles Gascon. I would rather wait
Speaker 1: around my gass and then take J. K. Dobbins. I
Speaker 1: just think there's he he could live up to that ADP.
Speaker 1: I don't see him going higher than RB fourteen, but
Speaker 1: I certainly can see him going lower, just based on
Speaker 1: the volume. And of course Lamar Jackson steals touches at
Speaker 1: the goal line and all everywhere everywhere else, so that
Speaker 1: there's that. Uh, let's talk about Lamar Jackson really quick
Speaker 1: two years ago led the NFL in passing touchdowns. Unbelievable
Speaker 1: right passing touchdowns last year. Only six didn't have any
Speaker 1: wide receivers last year, though his wide receivers were betting
Speaker 1: better than um. Mark Andrews took a step back. Um.
Speaker 1: Long story short, I think there's room for Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: to get better as a passer people who are writing
Speaker 1: him off as of right now. They added a first
Speaker 1: round pick to the wide receiver group, which I'm sure
Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about in a minute. And that's promising.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, and and Jackson was a candidate for my
Speaker 1: highest upside player. He could easily revert back to form
Speaker 1: that whole team good. And if he does that, then
Speaker 1: he's you know, he's the bell of the all over again.
Speaker 1: But he's not your highest upside player because I know
Speaker 1: who it's gonna be. I think, and I think you
Speaker 1: and I are in lockstep on this lay the rouser,
Speaker 1: the University of Minnesota rouser. Oh, you were thinking Mark Andrews,
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards. God, nobody wants Gus Edwards and he gets
Speaker 1: half the carrier run that must run heavy offense in
Speaker 1: the NFL. That is. I do like the angle there,
Speaker 1: but I love that angle. I would rather pay Gus
Speaker 1: Edwards a DP. We look with ADP, I don't have
Speaker 1: in front of me, um Gus Edwards a DP than
Speaker 1: J K. Dobbins ADP to me, it's and it's it's
Speaker 1: not even all that close. Oh no, it won't be close.
Speaker 1: Is gonna be RB thirty five. He's like round eight.
Speaker 1: I'm still going with Rashod Bateman, whose wide receiver sixty
Speaker 1: seven right now, and he is the best wide receiver
Speaker 1: on the roster. He probably is the best receives the
Speaker 1: best wide wide receiver on roster. Yes, he is a rookie,
Speaker 1: of course, um but polished route runner, great hands, not
Speaker 1: a freak athlete, but he is a lion athlete, uh,
Speaker 1: without a doubt. And when you look at the range
Speaker 1: of guys going before Rashad Bateman, I want to barf
Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs, t Y Hilton, Jalen reagor Nicole Hardman, Corey Davis.
Speaker 1: Bateman is the number one wide receiver on the team.
Speaker 1: Not the number one receiver. That's Mark Andrews, who was
Speaker 1: also Canada downside downside from me, that tight end four.
Speaker 1: He sees under a hundred targets going after you. Guys
Speaker 1: like Hockinson and Pitts who are gonna see a hundred
Speaker 1: plus targets in my mind, but I still think Uh
Speaker 1: Andrews can live up to that. That ADP a tight
Speaker 1: end for But anyway, it's Rashad Bateman for me. I
Speaker 1: think he leads the team at least the wide receivers
Speaker 1: and targets catches yards. He's gonna be a safe seven
Speaker 1: to eight targets per game guy. I feel four to
Speaker 1: five catches UH with a significant upside a wide receiver
Speaker 1: sixty two. There's plenty of room. There's plenty of room there.
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards a d P. I'm gonna I as I recall,
Speaker 1: it's round eight, But I I could be wrong about that,
Speaker 1: and I think he's going off the board like running
Speaker 1: back forty something in that ballpark. And to me, that's
Speaker 1: just it's such a good value for a guy who
Speaker 1: know is gonna get almost half of the work, and
Speaker 1: they love to use him near the stripe. They you know,
Speaker 1: they'll run Gus Edwards near the end zone. So RB,
Speaker 1: there we go. Pith, Yeah, that's right, I thought I
Speaker 1: said eight earlier. It's like that it's right rounded left.
Speaker 1: He's right in the right, like the kind of the
Speaker 1: backup range. You expect the Tony Pollard, Naheem Himes, Jamal Williams.
Speaker 1: But the difference is, I can I know Gus Edwards
Speaker 1: is going to get a bunch of carries in every game,
Speaker 1: and that I can't say that about those guys. Okay,
Speaker 1: R B forty RB forty one, RB forty three. Which
Speaker 1: one you pick in you got Zack Moss, Tony Pollard,
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards. I like all three. I like all three guys,
Speaker 1: but I would take Gus Edwards in most formats because
Speaker 1: of this certainty of his role. You know, Tony Pollard
Speaker 1: may he only had like two Fantasy relevant games last
Speaker 1: year and he he probably does. Or Zeke has to
Speaker 1: just get even worse than he was last year, which
Speaker 1: is possible. Um and Zack Moss is you know, well,
Speaker 1: I think there's a good opportunity by low on Zack Moss.
Speaker 1: We still still plenty of questions about him. We'd we'd
Speaker 1: be discussed him in detail in the last podcast last week, right,
Speaker 1: so we got we had a co upside players of
Speaker 1: the Ravens. I like it. Let's pivot to the Pittsburgh Steelers. First,
Speaker 1: understand my predilection on the Steelers overall this year. I
Speaker 1: see massive risk with this team, and I'm gonna outline
Speaker 1: it for you over the course of our conversation here.
Speaker 1: This is a team that in almost every scenario I
Speaker 1: will not take a Steeler at his average draft position,
Speaker 1: and I see a very possible significant real life regression
Speaker 1: and fantasy regression for this Steelers. They have a great
Speaker 1: defense and that's going to keep them I think at
Speaker 1: around the five mark for total wins that defense. But
Speaker 1: I'm very nervous about the rest of the team. So
Speaker 1: let's talk about beginning with the quarterback. In his eighteenth season,
Speaker 1: Ben roethlis Burger is teetering on cooked cooked. He played
Speaker 1: badly for stretches last year, and his arm was clearly
Speaker 1: degraded from previous seasons. I felt, now remember the season
Speaker 1: before last, he missed the whole year. Then last year
Speaker 1: he came in through a lot of passes because the
Speaker 1: running game was terrible and um and at the end
Speaker 1: of the day he ultimately got two decent stat lines.
Speaker 1: But just the eye test, if you watched two Steelers games,
Speaker 1: you know he didn't look the same. It was painful. Um,
Speaker 1: he didn't throw deep and that was the biggest change
Speaker 1: from last year. He used to be, you know, this
Speaker 1: big statue figure in the pocket and slinging deep balls around.
Speaker 1: He threw the fifth shortest average intended yards and in
Speaker 1: part because he had the fewest time in pocket, barely
Speaker 1: two seconds to throw the ball. No starter had less
Speaker 1: time in the pocket than Ben Roethlisberger. Um. Also with Ben,
Speaker 1: you know, he offered the team an offseason pay cut,
Speaker 1: which has this underlying suggestion that Ben believed that he
Speaker 1: might get replaced or cut or whatever. And he early
Speaker 1: in the season went to the team and said, I'll
Speaker 1: take a pay cut to play one more year. That
Speaker 1: worries me a little syndrome. That's a great question. I
Speaker 1: mean it feels that way, doesn't it. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: I think just last year, I feel like he succeeded
Speaker 1: from a fantasy standpoint more. It's just like grit and
Speaker 1: volume than actual ability anymore. Um. He did score in
Speaker 1: every game last year, and that part was great, But
Speaker 1: I'm nervous about the volume coming back and some other things.
Speaker 1: Last year through six eight passes, which was second most
Speaker 1: of any of his seasons. And in addition to the
Speaker 1: six eight passes, remember he threw sixty eight times in
Speaker 1: the playoff loss one game, sixty eight passes. Um that
Speaker 1: I I worry about all of that volume on his
Speaker 1: arm in this his eighteenth season. Um. The good news
Speaker 1: is he's surrounded by weapons and weren't talk about them
Speaker 1: in a second. The bad news for Ben Um is
Speaker 1: the offensive line is ranked twenty nine by Pro Football
Speaker 1: Focus for this coming season, and the team barely addressed
Speaker 1: it in the off season. They've got three news starters,
Speaker 1: none of whom look promising. They have one returning starter,
Speaker 1: Chuck woma Okah four, and he's flipping from right to
Speaker 1: left tackle. You know, I don't want a new left
Speaker 1: tackle for Ben Roethlisberger and the fact that last year's
Speaker 1: was terrible, but I don't want a guy who's not
Speaker 1: familiar with the position going to left tackle. They only
Speaker 1: drafted one lineman in in the draft, and that was
Speaker 1: in the fourth round. Um, Dan More, Dan More, That's it, Um,
Speaker 1: I just don't know how. You know, how does Ben
Speaker 1: get better with a makeshift line that's being reconstructed on
Speaker 1: the fly without obvious talent improvements. Remember they lost Markue's
Speaker 1: Pouncey retired in the off season. This is is a
Speaker 1: bad line, maybe the worst line in football. So let's
Speaker 1: talk about receivers for a minute. Deante Johnson managed to
Speaker 1: get himself benched from drop for drops last year, as
Speaker 1: you probably remember, um, but he's a high volume guy.
Speaker 1: He ranked sixth last year among all wide receivers and
Speaker 1: targets even with the benching, and that allowed him to
Speaker 1: leave the Steelers and targets and yards. He's now in
Speaker 1: his third season. He could get even better and he
Speaker 1: could pull away from the rest of the pack of
Speaker 1: the Steelers wide outs, especially we can convert more of
Speaker 1: those passes into touchdowns, which he was just a also
Speaker 1: touchdown producer. Last year, Jujus miss Schuster resigned with the team.
Speaker 1: And remember he went into free agency as a as
Speaker 1: an unrestricted free agent and he had like no takers
Speaker 1: and eventually, after I don't know, like ten days of
Speaker 1: free agency, Juju just resigned with the team on a
Speaker 1: very team friendly deal. I think the Patriots could have
Speaker 1: gotten to Juju's for what they paid, like I know,
Speaker 1: such a bad deal. Um. The issue for Juju and
Speaker 1: what you need to know about him, the lack of
Speaker 1: depth of target and yards after they catch Juju catch
Speaker 1: his short passes and then gets tackled quickly. That's bad
Speaker 1: for fantasy. He had the second shortest average depth of target,
Speaker 1: just five point eight yards according to Next Gen Stats,
Speaker 1: second shortest average depth of target and he turned one
Speaker 1: targets which is plenty and only eighty one yards. That's it.
Speaker 1: This is a major reversal from the big plays that
Speaker 1: Juju was making in his first couple of seasons in
Speaker 1: the league, and it's been this way for two years
Speaker 1: with j Do silver lining. He did finish strong though
Speaker 1: last year. He had touchdowns in seven of his last
Speaker 1: ten games. After the touchdown totals were good for him
Speaker 1: in the second half, but that was the only thing
Speaker 1: that saved him and kept him fantasy relevant were the touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Didn't didn't have over a hundred yards until that that
Speaker 1: playoff game when he had nineteen targets, sixty passes past attempts.
Speaker 1: Ben jujus one eight targets and I said only turned
Speaker 1: into eight hundred thirty one yards. Justin Jefferson turned one
Speaker 1: hundred twenty targets into almost double the yards fourteen hundred.
Speaker 1: So then let's go to Chase Claypool, who became the
Speaker 1: Steelers downfield. Thready average thirteen point two yards per target,
Speaker 1: which was among the deepest in the NFL. He's now
Speaker 1: in his second year and he's got room to get
Speaker 1: a lot better, which is a scary proposition for a
Speaker 1: guy with his build and ability to win contested catches.
Speaker 1: But behind this terrible offensive line, does Ben have the
Speaker 1: time to target it? Chase Claypool downfield? Chase Claypool. Give
Speaker 1: you a little bit of a Kelvin Benjamin vibe. No, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: he is I I do not see Kelvin Benjamin. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I got burned so bad on that hot start that
Speaker 1: Kelvin Benjamin had six years ago, and I'm Kelvin Benjamin
Speaker 1: is going to be awesome. I did not pan out
Speaker 1: at all. Um behind you know again, I worry about
Speaker 1: setting up Claypool downfield. Mind a bad offensive line and
Speaker 1: that provides the downside for Claypool only. Other receivers of
Speaker 1: note here, Eric Ebron will be the focal point of
Speaker 1: the tight ends until Pat friar Muth is ready to
Speaker 1: take over next season. Abron's on the last year of
Speaker 1: his deal. Friar Muth will be the starter next year.
Speaker 1: For those of you in Dynasty, and Empire leagues. Um,
Speaker 1: you know the deal on Ebron medium to low volume
Speaker 1: and you're hoping for you get one of his four
Speaker 1: or five touchdowns this season. And this division is so
Speaker 1: each team is so muddled at almost every Asian you
Speaker 1: know what I mean, like a lot of a lot
Speaker 1: of wide receivers ends. It's an issue. You know. Where
Speaker 1: the Steelers aren't muddled. Running back Nag Harris. It will
Speaker 1: be the Week one starter and likely a workhorse back.
Speaker 1: He is a true three down back, particularly if if
Speaker 1: his past blocking improves. And it's not bad, but it's
Speaker 1: got plenty of him to get better. Harris has no
Speaker 1: threat on roster to take meaningful carries away from him whatsoever.
Speaker 1: He has built for goal line use. He will get
Speaker 1: carries inside the five and that is a huge ticket
Speaker 1: to fantasy success. But there are dangers here. First, um,
Speaker 1: they need a far more balanced attack than last year
Speaker 1: when the Steelers through the ball the most times in
Speaker 1: the NFL and they ran the third fewest times. So
Speaker 1: they need to have more of a commitment to the
Speaker 1: run clear lead and I'm sure they'd like to get
Speaker 1: back to being more of a balanced attack, but they
Speaker 1: have to for Nagi Harris to be as effective as
Speaker 1: he could be. And then again, and I hate to
Speaker 1: keep pounding on this, the offensive line is horrible. Harris
Speaker 1: is going to have to make his own yards a
Speaker 1: lot and he's not going to get a lot of help.
Speaker 1: Harris can catch, but will they throw to him. Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: targeted its runners just eighty one times last year and
Speaker 1: James Conner was twenty seven among runners last season in targets.
Speaker 1: So how much will they throw to Harris is an
Speaker 1: open question. You don't want to get too excited about
Speaker 1: the offseason O t a practice videos, but some of
Speaker 1: the Harris footwork it looks good. He looks different than most.
Speaker 1: For sure, he is a good player, and if he
Speaker 1: had landed someplace else, we'd be talking about. Harris is
Speaker 1: potentially a first rounder had he picked you like a
Speaker 1: perfect landing spot, um, But as it stands, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure that this is it riskiest player at his current
Speaker 1: ADP to me is Juju Smith Schuster. He's wide receiver
Speaker 1: thirty two in the seventh round, and as I mentioned earlier,
Speaker 1: hard to be a reliable fantasy producer and you're catching
Speaker 1: the ball at or near the line of scrimmage and
Speaker 1: doing nothing with it afterwards. And the player with the
Speaker 1: most upside compared to a DP probably Chase Claypool at
Speaker 1: wide receiver twenty nine in the sixth round. And he's
Speaker 1: got special traits, he's got a big body, contested catches.
Speaker 1: And if Benn has still got a thirty touchdown season
Speaker 1: left in that arm, or even like a twenty six
Speaker 1: touchdown season left in that arm, Chase Claypool to me
Speaker 1: is the odds on favor to catch the most touchdowns
Speaker 1: on the team. I dig it. Thank you for listening.
Speaker 1: We've broken down the a f C North next week.
Speaker 1: A f C what do you want to do? West South?
Speaker 1: Did you say, AMC? No, you hear what you want
Speaker 1: to hear? AMC, AMC to the moon. Not financial advice
Speaker 1: out there, unless you A f C South sounds good
Speaker 1: because traditionally it goes east north, alf I think west whatever.
Speaker 1: Uh So we'll do a f C South next week.
Speaker 1: We appreciate everybody who listened. Remember to go to Guillotine
Speaker 1: leagues dot com. We encourage you to check that out
Speaker 1: as well. We'll talk to you next week, everybody, Bye bye.
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I heart Radio.
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