1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. What we're gonna 6 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: do this morning, folks, and this is, of course, the 7 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: combination of equities, bonds, currencies, commodities is considered the bears 8 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: who've been successful. Douglas cast nailing it at Sea Breeze 9 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: on a short term basis, and as John mentions, Mr 10 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: Wilson over at Morgan Stanley, absolutely nailing it on a 11 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: more long term, measured let's call it institutional basis in 12 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: this storm. As Andrew Slim and Mr Wilson's colleague, senior 13 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Chicago, Andrew, thank you so 14 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: much for joining us in this turmoil. You go, as 15 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 1: a guy more optimistic where Mike Wilson goes, which is 16 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: now we must study earnings, and you suggest that margins 17 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: must be maintained. Can we be optimistic for maintained margins 18 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: through the end of the year. Well, we we certainly 19 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: haven't seen the you know, the earnings collapse that you know, 20 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: many of the bears have predicted. We'll have to see. 21 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 1: I would say from a stock picking standpoint, it's better 22 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: to find the companies that actually already have had the 23 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 1: the earnings clocks. I think he's talking at the at 24 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 1: the S and P level. You know, we'll have to see. 25 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: The counter argument is that we are still only two 26 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: years from the previous recession, and therefore balance sheets can 27 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: withstand the shocks that you're seeing to cost and so 28 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: forth better than they would if we were, you know, 29 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: coming off a long period of economic story with a 30 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: two year back to an Autumn two thousand seven yield? 31 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 1: Is cash attractive? Is a legit asset? Yeah? Yeah, yes. 32 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,200 Speaker 1: And the point of this is is I am in 33 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: the camp of p compression. So I think that is 34 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 1: the negative. The FED raising rates, yields going up pushes 35 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: the pe down, and that's the negative that I see. 36 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,959 Speaker 1: I'm just haven't embraced as much the you know, the 37 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: the earnings collapsing side, which is the positive that to 38 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: me has been the story of the year. And we 39 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: got a little but you know, we had a very 40 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: big bance off the June low on the fact that 41 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,959 Speaker 1: the second quarter was not as bad as expepected. And 42 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: you know, now we're pulling back. That's the push pull 43 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 1: of you know, they're very much a lackluster year for 44 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 1: requas and I'm still on that camp Andrews. You know, 45 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 1: the bond market backdrop changed as well, since the middle 46 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: of June is back to where we were. So here's 47 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: the question about the June lows and the equity market. 48 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 1: If the two yield is back through the June fourteenth highs, 49 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: why do equities along anywhere near ten above the June 50 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: six loaves? Probably not. They probably will head lower. I think, 51 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: you know, September is not a great month, but I 52 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: still think we could get a you know, gate late 53 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: rally in the fourth quarter as the market starts to 54 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 1: price off, you know, next four months, next four quarters 55 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: of earning, which is three But you know, look, we've 56 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: had a big bounce. You know, high risk came back 57 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: in the market very quickly, and I think that's you 58 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: know that that was a dangerous sign. So your own 59 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 1: power getting up and saying what he said, and boom 60 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: down goes all the speculation that had come quickly back 61 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: to the market. So I think the Yeah, I think 62 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: the near term is it's negative for the market. Will 63 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: we hold the loads of June? I think it's possible, 64 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 1: even with rates higher, But I think speculation is right 65 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: for short term speculation right to be you know, washed out. 66 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: So you sound really farish, Andrew, and you're talking about 67 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: reducing risk. And then I look at some of the 68 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: stocks that you like, including restoration hardware, Lulu Lemon, among 69 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: other consumer discretionaries that usually do worse during downturns. What 70 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: gives what's the rush now? Yeah? So, first of all, 71 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 1: at the macro level, consumer sentiment hit a forty four 72 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:26,799 Speaker 1: year low in July, so a lot of very negative views. 73 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: And when you think about that, it's all the stock 74 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: market rewards the direction of change, and so inevitably direction change, 75 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: it's got to go high. At some point. It has 76 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 1: and it has improved. And then from a stock standpoint, 77 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 1: those stacks are damned forty fifty, sixty, seventy piked the truck. 78 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 1: There is just a turn of bad news priced into 79 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 1: so so I guess going back to the original question 80 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: of earnings, you know, these companies have already brought down 81 00:04:56,400 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 1: their numbers. They you know, the market is priced sing 82 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: in as if they're going to miss earnings. So I 83 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: think that it's safer to buy companies that have already 84 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: you know, the expectation is is bad. I I always 85 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: am interested in buying companies with great long term track 86 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: records that that the stocks are down a lot, with 87 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: a lot of negative expectations. So I think that's safer 88 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 1: than thinking you can pick and choose companies that aren't 89 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,719 Speaker 1: going to have earnings problems. Following that logic, Andrew, do 90 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,679 Speaker 1: you think that the opposite holds true, that you should 91 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: sell the names that have held in better I'm thinking 92 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: of big tech that have had incredible rallies over the 93 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: past few months. I absolutely, I absolutely, I think it's 94 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 1: very dangerous, be careful if the Mike Wilson scenario comes 95 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: to bear. I don't want to stock this down from 96 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: its you know five. I think there's a lot of 97 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 1: risk into that area, and I'd rather buy the companies 98 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 1: that already priced in a lot of bad news. How 99 00:05:56,279 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: do our listeners and viewers do, Andrew? If everybody he's 100 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: buying four or five stocks which were x per cent 101 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: of the bullmarket rally out of June, and then you've 102 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 1: got to look at everything else. Do you participate in 103 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: those glory stocks and figure out what to buy or 104 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: do you finally jettison the glory stocks and actually run 105 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: a diversified portfolio. Well, yeah, I mean, for I I 106 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: think there's plenty of companies out there that are down, 107 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 1: uh you know a lot, as I said, and there's 108 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: real opportunities. But those big, very big stocks, some of 109 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: them are really not down that much. And you know, 110 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: if you go back in long time at the history 111 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: of the SMP, what brings down the largest companies that 112 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 1: they never stay on top for ever? It's usually the government, 113 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: the government, And I think, you know, you've you've got 114 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: a very high waiting and a few names, and that 115 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: is going to weigh on the S and P at 116 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: the index level, I think for the a few years, 117 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: which will be good for investors that go out and 118 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: buy individual stocks because I think the opportunities that is 119 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: probably better at the stock level than the index level, 120 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: just given the waiting in those few names at the 121 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: time when they're you know, the government is you know, 122 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: like I said, starting that you know knows in some 123 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: of these companies, Andrew got a squazes in energy when 124 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: with the year on spid, Jeff carrying the team over 125 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: a goldman. They're telling people to keep buying commodities, even 126 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: going into what could be in recession. They say, the 127 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: following commodities the best asset class to war into an 128 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: a late cycle face where demand remains above supply. Andrew, 129 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: where are you on the commodity equity side of things? 130 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: The energy equities which have delivered some stellar returns this year. 131 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: So we solicit some stocks that we like, we got 132 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: to sell something to buy them because I'm a long 133 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: equity marriage or what have I been reducing energy? And 134 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: I've been reducing energy because just where you said, it's 135 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: a significant to do at Uh, this industry is classically cyclical, 136 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: and if in fact the economy does weaken, UH, to me, 137 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: energy is vulnerable because it's done so well versus stocks 138 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: that you know we're listed that are already done a lot. 139 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: So I think energy is a source of funding. It's 140 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: come roaring back here. I would continue to view it 141 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: as a source of uh source of funny. So I'm 142 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: you know that the halt pitch in energy was a 143 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: year and a half two years ago, when you know 144 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: the poor occurred with negative prices. I think the fat 145 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 1: pitch right now is a sentiment is at a forty 146 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: four year loved. I think that's the that's the opportunity, 147 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: and you sell things that are done very well like energy. Andrew, 148 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:53,080 Speaker 1: thank you, Andrew Slim and management Numerus Surveillers has been 149 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: committed to economics. We're really looking forward to giving the 150 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 1: Jackson Whole treatment to CenTra when they come around again. 151 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: In poor artegal and at those efforts there are academics. 152 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: We avoid them like the plague. We do that for 153 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: all sorts of reasons. But every once in a while 154 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: we get lucky and lasso in one of them. If 155 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: at Jackson Hall this year, Francesco Biancy of Johns Hopkins 156 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: Ex Duke, EX Princeton stop traffic by speaking the word 157 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:25,559 Speaker 1: that no one wanted to speak, and that is fiscal economics. 158 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: It's a twenty nine page paper loaded with math. I 159 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: don't understand matrix algebra. We just can't do that on TV, 160 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: but we can talk about the basics and the policy 161 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 1: prescription out of this. You say there can be a 162 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: monetary lead solution or a fiscal lead solution rhythm MMT. 163 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: Does the FED do a fiscal lead solution or is 164 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: that the part of Congress and the president so sor 165 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: right now, I think the FED is committed to bringing 166 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 1: fish on down. I guess the main point of our 167 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: paper is to show that the FED also needs a 168 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: cooperation from the physical authority. So we take an historical 169 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 1: perspective and we look back at the sixties and seventies 170 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 1: and provide an argument that that was a phisical phenomenon. 171 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 1: Ultimately was dabbish monetary policy, but combined with overspending and 172 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: not commitment to de stability. And so now the question 173 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: the FED is acting is moving interest rates up. So 174 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: our question in the paper is that if going forward 175 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 1: we will see the necessary physical adjustments to bring thecation down, 176 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 1: that would be the fiscal solution to the problem. What 177 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: did you learn from Stephanie Kelton's mm T. This has 178 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: been all the ways the media loves to pick on it. 179 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: There's a political polarity to that. You come from the 180 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 1: neutrality of Europe, of Italy, Caustanza over in Portugal and 181 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: the rest of them. So you're the foreigner looking in 182 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: at the debate of MMT. What have you learned about 183 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: MMT in this crisis? Um So, I think what we 184 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: learn the more, I think all of us. What we 185 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: learn is that phisical policy can be extremely powerful. Phisical 186 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:02,800 Speaker 1: policy are probably put a stop to the low interest 187 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: rate environment, and we were for ten years in at 188 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 1: the zero over bound. In fact, we risk of deflation. 189 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: I think we tend to forget where we were one 190 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: year ago. The FED was generally concerned about deflation. Um 191 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: we intervene very forcefully with fiscal policy, and that contributed 192 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 1: to the solution. Um. Of course, it cause a big 193 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 1: jump in inflation, arguably because it compounded with some exogenous 194 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: forces like the pandemic of course, uh, the supply chain problems, 195 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: the Russian conflict. But ultimately fiscal policy proved to be 196 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: a very powerful mechanism. I think what we learned, on 197 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:44,559 Speaker 1: the other hand, is that this comes with a cost, 198 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: and and the cost is inflation. Now, it's always easy 199 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: to do policy with the benefit of hindsight, but with 200 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 1: the benefit of insightro we went a little bit overboard. Well, Francesco, 201 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: there's a really profound application here. It's not just what 202 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 1: the rest PUNTS was, it's the expectation of the consumer's 203 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: mind that there will be more fiscal stimulus if there 204 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: is another downturn, and that that is what it's going 205 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:12,959 Speaker 1: to lead to inflation expectations becoming unmoored. How much does 206 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: that really crimp the ability of policymakers to either add 207 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 1: phiscal stimulus in the face of a recession, mitigating some 208 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: of the downturn, or be going for the fiscal stimulus 209 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,559 Speaker 1: of the past few years and leading to inflation that's 210 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 1: much higher than it has been in the past. That's 211 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: an excellent point, and in fact, what we emphasize is 212 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 1: what really matters is a long run phiscal sustainability. So 213 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:37,719 Speaker 1: what we want is to be able to use this 214 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: powerful mechanist during recessions. But in order to do that, 215 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: we need to guarantee that overall in the long run, 216 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: or at least in the medium run, we are on 217 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: a stable path. So what that implies is essentially that 218 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: when things are good, when we don't need that to 219 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: uh provide fiscal steamulus, we should refrain from doing that 220 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: exactly to keep this ammunition to when we need it. 221 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,839 Speaker 1: I got one quick question. I saw Richard the Jackson Hole, 222 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: and I want to go back to the core of 223 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: your paper, which is DSG. Richard Claire has worked with 224 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: Girdler and the rest. Right, how can we trust this math, 225 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: all the math in smart guys like you are doing. 226 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: Has it been proven wrong given these shocks that we've 227 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: seen that So I don't think so. I think like 228 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: the math is just a way to formalize some ideas. 229 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 1: So what we are discussing here, I think is something 230 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: that everybody can relate to. People have had first ideas 231 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: and then came the math. So the math is only 232 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: a way to put order there. And I don't think 233 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 1: that um DSG models of money general macro models in 234 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 1: themselves have failed. If anything, there are some risks that 235 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: we forgot about. Okay and John, it's important, Lisa, good news. 236 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,679 Speaker 1: I just got the car to take you to the 237 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: brandma with house to explain matrix algebra to Lisa's kids. 238 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: It's waiting, Marcesco. Thank you, Francesco Biankee. That on fiscal 239 00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: policy and what it makes for inflation expectations, some legitimate 240 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: tension with record dollar strength off the good Bloomberg Dollar Index. 241 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: Part of that, of course is commodities. We're looking at 242 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: all the asset classes this morning, in this turmoil, this 243 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: reset into the end of the year, Ellen Wall provides 244 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: advice senior fellow in Atlantic Atlantic Council. I should say 245 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: in a definitive effort, Saudi, I can't say enough about 246 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: the terseness of her book. Saudi inc. Just a really 247 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: wonderful walk through of the originality of what we see 248 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: in riod Ellen. I want to talk what John mentioned earlier, 249 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: which is the idea of the US as a global 250 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: manufacturer of hydrocarbons. In a select few saying it's un 251 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: American export the stuff discussed. That is the adult in 252 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: the room. Yeah, I can I can understand where these 253 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: people are coming from, especially because for so long we 254 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: did have a crude oil export band, uh and that. 255 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: But you have to remember that that really is only 256 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: a very recent phenomenon. We only had a crude oil 257 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: export band starting in the seventies during the um when 258 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: when we had the oil shocks, and the idea was 259 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: to try to keep as much oil as we had 260 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: at home. Before that, America was a major supplier of 261 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: energy to the world. Basically during World War Two, American 262 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: crude oil, American energy, American gasoline and diesel, and jet 263 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: fuel was essentially you could argue responsible for winning World 264 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 1: War Two for the Allies. UH. So, I think to 265 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: say that it's un American to export our energy products 266 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 1: UH is a very shortsighted view of of America. So Ellen, 267 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: the deparotmat of Energy, led by Secondary ground Home, appears 268 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: to be very concerned about the low stock pass of 269 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: diesel and gasoline, particularly in the Northeast. This is what 270 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: she said in a letter to some of the energy 271 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: players here it is our hope that companies will proactively 272 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: address this need or quote the administration will need to 273 00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 1: consider additional federal requirements or other emergency measures. And on 274 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: how credible it's that threat. I mean, if that's not 275 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: a threat, then I'm not sure what is a threat. 276 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 1: I mean that was She pretty much laid it out, saying, 277 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 1: if you don't get American stockpiles out of you don't 278 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: stop exporting products that are you know, commercially viable uh 279 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: to to export, then we're going to you know, ban 280 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: the export of certain products. And that's I think very 281 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 1: damaging to the global energy market because the United States 282 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: is an important participant in this global energy market and 283 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: we we import tons of products as well as as 284 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 1: we export them, and that's what helps things run smoothly. 285 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: Right now, the prices in Europe for diesel, for liquefied 286 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: natural gas, for all sorts of products are much higher 287 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: than you can get in being United States, and so 288 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: that's why we're seeing a lot of products go to Europe, 289 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: especially because Russian products are no longer available for these 290 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: places to import. If you know, we wanted to correct this, 291 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: we could stop, you know, sanctioning Russian exports, or Europe 292 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 1: could take a hard look at it. You know, it's 293 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: the answer to this problem is not to say don't 294 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 1: export or we're gonna ban exports. The answer is to 295 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: look at the larger flow of of products and figure out, 296 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 1: you know, where things could be improved. For example, they 297 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: could get rid of the Jones Act or suspend the 298 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 1: Jones Act, which would make it much easier to transport 299 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,199 Speaker 1: diesel from certain places in the United States to the 300 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,640 Speaker 1: Eastern Seaboard where diesel supplies are very low. Well, there's 301 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: a question about whether Jennifer Granham has credibility within the 302 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: energy industry at this point. We could get into that. 303 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: Perhaps a little more instructive is what companies are actually 304 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 1: doing whether they're going to actually invest in producing more 305 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: natural gas, producing more crude products in the United States. 306 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 1: What do you see on the investment side at a 307 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: time when prices, while they have come down, are still 308 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: much more elevated than they have been in years. You know, 309 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: you you would think that ordinarily, when prices are high, 310 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 1: that there's a much higher level of certainty for producers 311 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: to say, Okay, we're going to invest, We're going to 312 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: produce more. But right now, at least according to the 313 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: survey that the Dallas Set and other fans have done 314 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: of energy producers in their regions, show that actually there's 315 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 1: a very high level of uncertainty, and a big part 316 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 1: of that has to do with inflation and supply chain issues. 317 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 1: A lot of producers are finding that while they thought 318 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 1: that their costs would go up maybe ten, they're finding 319 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 1: that costs are up or higher and that's really hurting 320 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: their ability. Even those that want to produce more, that 321 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: want to drill more, they want to open more wells, Uh, 322 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,199 Speaker 1: they're finding that this is very difficult. They don't know 323 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:57,400 Speaker 1: where they can get this steel, they don't know where 324 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:00,679 Speaker 1: they can find labor and sand and other inputs. That 325 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: they need in order to get get these wells going. 326 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: So wells are taking these seven to eight months to complete, 327 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,199 Speaker 1: whereas before that timeline was much much shorter. Can we 328 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:12,840 Speaker 1: just probe the tail risk it? Just to wrap up, Allen, 329 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: what do you think would happen if the administration cut 330 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: out the export of a fuel of energy product to 331 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 1: say Europe. What would happen? What would the main characteristics 332 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:25,879 Speaker 1: of the energy market look like in that world? I 333 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 1: think that the first thing we would see is a major, 334 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 1: major spike in the price of um fuel products and 335 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: oil all over. I mean, speculators would just you know, 336 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: ramp things up, and it would be such a high, 337 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: you know, increase that maybe the likes of which we 338 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: we've almost never seen, or at least even if this 339 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,239 Speaker 1: was just foreshadowed, we'd see a jump in prices. And 340 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,800 Speaker 1: then we probably also see some issues in terms of 341 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: w t I that would see a much bigger differential 342 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 1: between Brent and w t I developing. And then thank 343 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: you and I'm wild the Atlanta Council. We celebrate now 344 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: and we do this of Washington, and whether conservative or liberal, 345 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: we celebrate someone who in this geriatric Senate that we 346 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 1: have is doing the right thing. Lady of Vermont will 347 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,680 Speaker 1: retire and he's retiring with his full abilities at eighty 348 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 1: two years old, and he retires with a wonderful memoir 349 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: for all the Road taken a memoir. Senator Patrick Lahy, 350 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: we welcome the former DJ at W S. S. E. St. 351 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 1: Michael's College, Patrick Lady. This morning, Senator, I want to 352 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: cut to the chase. The liberals of your youth, Scoop 353 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 1: Jackson of Washington, H. H. H. Of Minnesota and a 354 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 1: young lady have been substituted for the new progressives. What 355 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: do the new progressives need to learn from the liberal 356 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: three theology you lived well? I think they have to 357 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: learn that you can talk about doing things or you 358 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 1: can do it. Yep, they accomplishing the accomplishing legislation is 359 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: more difficult, but it requires you to uh stop talking 360 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 1: except with each other work out. Both Republicans and Democrats 361 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 1: try to get coalitions and past six I mean, you 362 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: go way back at the time of Lennon Johnson getting 363 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 1: civil rights bill has passed and he had a number 364 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: of senators who supported segregation. All he brought people together, 365 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 1: but it required hard work. Humphrey and Jackson did the 366 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:46,879 Speaker 1: same thing. They would bring in Republicans, uh and work 367 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: with him and get it done. I worry that, and 368 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: I appreciate a number of things that you so called 369 00:21:54,680 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 1: progressive stand for on climate control, it and education all. 370 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: But it's one thing to talk about it. It's another 371 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 1: thing to accomplish it. And you had a lot of 372 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,679 Speaker 1: these things. You have to settle for eighty five percent 373 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: this year in legislation, get another fift pcent next year. 374 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: It's never an all or nothing game. Senator, did you 375 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: think that President Biden is the right person to take 376 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: that country and lead that a particular effort post, Well, 377 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: he's done a lot of great legislation past. He's uh 378 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 1: uh lord the deficit in many ways he's and most importantly, 379 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 1: he brought us back into the world of nations. Look 380 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: at the animosity Mr Trump has shown towards NATO and 381 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: other countries and his favoritism of Russia, and said, Joe 382 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 1: Biden came remember the clear view of what Russians like, 383 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 1: what Putiners like with Ukraine. He brought the natural countries, 384 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 1: our European allies together in the way we haven't seen 385 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: in decades. And uh, I know that totally surprised a 386 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 1: lot of our putent, but it also showed that the 387 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: United States was back in the leadership role. Senator. There 388 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: are a lot of people speculating that perhaps he shouldn't 389 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 1: be the person to run again, specifically because of the 390 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: fact that he is older and that he isn't necessarily 391 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: generating the same enthusiasm, and we're certainly seeing that in 392 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: the polling. Do you agree, do you think that it 393 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,480 Speaker 1: is time for new leadership? Well, I think if Joe 394 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: Biden wants to run again, I'll support him. That's a 395 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: decision only he could make. It's the same way I 396 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 1: had a lot of people urged me to run again 397 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: in Vermont, but it's a six year term and I 398 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 1: have things I want to do and still do, and 399 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: so I retired probably at the top of my influence 400 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 1: of the Senate is protrac But but Joe's gonna Joe 401 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: Biden's going to make that decisions out. But I I 402 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: can't think of anybody, any the people who ran, including 403 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 1: the former president, who could have brought NATO together the 404 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:22,119 Speaker 1: way he did and could have gotten uh some of 405 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 1: the legislation we've passed and everything from from COVID to 406 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 1: uh Child, no treasure, I mean name it. I don't 407 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 1: think anybody else could have done that the way he did. Senator, 408 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 1: we are out of time, but I urge you to 409 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 1: speak again to Bloomberg, to David Weston and all of 410 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: us about the road take in a memoir. It is 411 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 1: really extraord and I can't say enough, folks about how 412 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 1: it is of a liberal of another time and place. 413 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: The gentleman from the from Vermont, Patrick Lay, this is 414 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live 415 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 1: weekdays from seven to ten am. He's Stern on Bloomberg 416 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to 417 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 1: nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 418 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:15,000 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 419 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on 420 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg