1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join Brian 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and moving 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: markets in the APAC region. You can subscribe to the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 2: Well. 8 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 1: Tomorrow a big vote for US Steel shareholders. They will 9 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 1: vote on the proposed sale of the company to Nippon Steel. 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: This deal, needless to say, is proving to be very controversial. 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: Let's take a closer look now with Joe Doe, Bloomberg's 12 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: Medals and Mining reporter. Joe, thanks for being with us. 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 1: Is it true that you think the greatest stumbling block 14 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 1: to getting this deal done is the union, the United 15 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,199 Speaker 1: steel Workers? Is that a fair statement? 16 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 3: Yeah? 17 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 4: Absolutely, it is the union and it has been basically 18 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 4: since a few days after this deal was announced, in 19 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 4: the dust finally settled and people, and by people they 20 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 4: mean Nippon and US Steel started to realize that the 21 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,800 Speaker 4: union was not going to go out quietly in this. 22 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 1: It's very interesting too, because from what I've read and 23 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: you're reporting. Nippon has made overtures, put things in writing 24 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: to try to allay the concerns that the union has, 25 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: talking about more capital investment in some of these older 26 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,559 Speaker 1: plants in the States, along with the intention to honor 27 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: the union labor agreements. Is Nippon not done enough? 28 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 3: If you ask the union, they haven't. 29 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 4: If you ask the shareholders, they feel like Nippon has 30 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 4: done a lot. But I think some of the reporting 31 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 4: that myself and Josh Wingrove, our White House reporter, have 32 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 4: done over the past many months is try to find 33 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 4: what's in between, reading between the lines here, and I 34 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 4: think what's happening is Nippon feels like they've come out 35 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 4: and made the promises they need to to assure that 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 4: the union won't have a bunch of workers laid off 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 4: and that the mills will stay open. The problem is 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,279 Speaker 4: they're not being specific enough right in the union. 39 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 3: Listen, they've seen. 40 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 4: A lot of jobs lost over the past, you know, 41 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 4: many decades, they've been through this before, and they're saying, 42 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 4: you know, unless you can promise us that these jobs 43 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 4: are going to be here and that these mills are 44 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 4: going to have investments, they're going to keep them around 45 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 4: for another generation. Right. 46 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 3: I was talking to a number of steel workers who. 47 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,600 Speaker 4: Said this, then it's going to be really hard for 48 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 4: us to agree that you should. 49 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 3: Be the buyer. 50 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: Japanese Prime Minister of Fumiyo kishid is on a state 51 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,600 Speaker 1: visit to the US. One of the things he did highlight, 52 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: even though he didn't mention this deal explicitly, he did 53 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: say that Japan has a big role in America's economy, 54 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,239 Speaker 1: being the largest foreign investor. Did it strike you odd 55 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: that Keishita kind of avoided the Nippon Steel US Steel transaction. 56 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 4: You know, it was something that we had all been 57 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 4: talking about in the weeks leading up to this, whether 58 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 4: or not he. 59 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 3: Would discuss it. It seems he was. 60 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 4: One of the reasons that Japan didn't spend much time 61 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 4: dealing with this is because they did feel like there 62 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 4: were other matters that were probably more important on state level. 63 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 4: And you had also had going into this. The President 64 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 4: of the United States, Biden, had come out just the 65 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 4: month before, just a month ago, and said this has 66 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 4: to be American owned and operated, and I support the 67 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 4: American workers. So that took a major hit, Right, You 68 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 4: don't necessarily want to go into a diplomatic meeting in 69 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 4: which a president has made very clear where he stands, 70 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 4: only to kind of hit a brick wall on a 71 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 4: state visit that you know, I mean, this is these 72 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 4: don't come around often. 73 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: I mentioned that tomorrow US Steel shareholders is set to 74 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: vote on this proposed sale. Today, according to Politico, the 75 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: Ohio Republican Senator jd Vance says that US Deeal may 76 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: have misled show shareholders about the risk the federal government 77 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: will reject this proposed deal. What is he talking about? Exactly? 78 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 1: Do we know? 79 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 4: I'm not exactly sure what Centator Evans is getting at, 80 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 4: but I do know that the shareaholder vote is tomorrow. 81 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 4: It is expected that it will be overwhelmingly approved by 82 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 4: the shareholders. There's probably I was talking to a earlier today, 83 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 4: so there's probably going to be ninety seven, ninety eight, 84 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 4: ninety nine percent approval of this deal. For the shareholders, 85 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 4: it's a great deal, fifty five dollars a share, which 86 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 4: is probably ten dollars above what the highest expectation was 87 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 4: before this deal was announced per share. 88 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 3: And really after that, what. 89 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 4: Everybody's going to turn their eyes to next is the 90 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 4: sifious review right. The review by siphiuss to whether or 91 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 4: not there's national security concerns in this deal. 92 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: I also understand that the Department of Justice has opened 93 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: an anti trust investigation into this deal. What would the 94 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: DOJ be looking at? 95 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, my my colleagues and I looked 96 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:46,919 Speaker 4: into this yesterday. 97 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 3: And what it is is that the DOJ is. 98 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 4: Doing its job effectively and it is looking at the 99 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,599 Speaker 4: assets that Nippon owns and it has to determine if 100 00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 4: those assets would pose any sort of anti competitive practices 101 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 4: if they were to ultimately. 102 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 3: Succeed at buying US steel. 103 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 4: As we understand it, the review is looking specifically at 104 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 4: a joint venture mill that Nippon Steel runs with Arslar 105 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 4: middle which is the European steelmaker. It's the second largest 106 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 4: steel maker in the world, and the question is whether 107 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 4: or not that would have some sort of issues. The 108 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 4: mill itself doesn't have blast furnaces, it doesn't have it 109 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 4: doesn't actually produce raw steel. It rolls steel that goes 110 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 4: into the automotive market, the construction market. 111 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 3: And that is what the DOJ is looking into. 112 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 4: If they determine that there's anti competitive practices, you know, 113 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,279 Speaker 4: they might suggest Hey, you have to sell your steak. 114 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 3: But I think it to be clear, it wasn't that. 115 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 4: This DOJ investigation is looking at the deal US Steel 116 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 4: and Nipon. It is looking at Nipon's ownership of a 117 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 4: current other mill and how that might affect anti competitive 118 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 4: practices if it ultimately succeeded it buying the US Steel. 119 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: So to circle back to the U Union right now, 120 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: we know that they object to this transaction going forward. 121 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: Can you imagine a world where the United steel Workers 122 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: are able to negotiate something with Nippon Steel and for 123 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: this deal to move forward, I think. 124 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 4: There needs to be a lot from Nippon Steel. I 125 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 4: think we're still deep in the throes of early negotiation. 126 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 4: A lot of people a month ago thought this thing 127 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 4: was dead. Joshuayn Grove and I are big take yesterday 128 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 4: through a lot of reporting we've done, especially over the 129 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 4: past month, show that there is still a path. The 130 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 4: path I think would have to be some significant promises 131 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,559 Speaker 4: and specific promises from Nippon of the existing blast blast 132 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 4: furnace mills at US Steel which are run by unionized workers, 133 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 4: and specifics are like are you going to put a 134 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 4: hastra continuous Castor into Mont Valley, or are you going 135 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 4: to do some sort of power generation. What are you 136 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 4: going to go do to the currently idle mills like 137 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 4: Great Lakes and Granite City which still have union workers there. 138 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 4: Right now, Nippon hasn't really gone into specifics, and honestly, 139 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 4: it's because if you think about it, a lot of 140 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 4: companies when they go to buy another company, it's not 141 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 4: like they're doing all their due diligence before they buy 142 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 4: the company. 143 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 3: They buy the company and then they do more the 144 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 3: due diligence. 145 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 4: They decide what they're going to keep and what they're 146 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 4: going to upgrade, and that is really what's going on here, 147 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 4: right And the union's like, uh uh, nope, because we 148 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 4: don't want you to buy this thing and then shut 149 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 4: down a bunch of mills where our guys work at 150 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 4: after you've bought us, and then of course done your 151 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 4: due diligence after the fact, because then a lot of 152 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 4: people are left out to dry on the union side. Joe. 153 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: For the longest time, the rival steelmaker in the US, 154 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: Cleveland Cliffs, was making a play for US steal. Obviously, 155 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: the nip On bid topped what Cleveland Cliffs was attempting 156 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: to do very quickly here thirty seconds or so. If 157 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: this were to come undone, does it go to Cleveland Cliffs? 158 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 1: Is it that easy? 159 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 3: No, it's not that easy. 160 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 4: Cleveland Cliffs could you know, if the deal comes undone, 161 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 4: they could make another bid for it, but they would 162 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 4: still have to go through anti trust concerns. 163 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 3: Those were the concerns mentioned in the proxy of the deal. 164 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 4: Well, nip Us Steel said they think there'd have to 165 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 4: be about seven billion dollars of divestitures for a Cliff's 166 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 4: purchase to work Cliffs, I said, I think we think 167 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,880 Speaker 4: it would only be two million dollars, but it's obvious 168 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 4: that there would be significant divests that would happen, and 169 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 4: if that even happened, those divestitures would directly impact the 170 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 4: United steel Workers. 171 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: Joe, it's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to 172 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: chat with us on this bid on the part of 173 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: a Nippon Steel fourteen point nine billion dollar proposed merger 174 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: deal with US Steel. Jod There Bloomberg Medals and Mining 175 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: reporter joining us from here in New York City via 176 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: zoom on Daybreak Asia. Let's get to our guest from 177 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: our Hong Kong Studios. Stephen Soon is with us. Stephen 178 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: as head of research at HSBC Chianghai. He joins us 179 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: as I mentioned from our perch in HK. Good of 180 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 1: you to join us, Stephen, Thanks so much. We had 181 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: an interesting conversation yesterday a couple of our colleagues and 182 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: myself around some of the monthly activity data that we're 183 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: going to get next week for China, and we focused 184 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 1: on retail sales in particular because we're trying to understand 185 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: the health of the Chinese consumer right now. Do you 186 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 1: have a sense about the domestic the story on domestic 187 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 1: demand in China. 188 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 5: Thanks for having me, Douglas. This is my first Bloomberg 189 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 5: radio experience. 190 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: Excellent. 191 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 5: So yeah, it's really excited regarding you know, the consumption 192 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 5: grows recovery in China, I would say so far, if 193 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 5: you look at the festival seasons, be it the Chinese 194 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:41,439 Speaker 5: New Year or you know, a couple of days ago, 195 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 5: the Chimming Festival or tomb sweeping festival. In general, the 196 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 5: service related and also catering related consumption grows have surprised 197 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 5: on the upsite and actually quite strong. So that's a 198 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 5: good side of the story, right, But it's really a 199 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 5: case shaped recovery, if you will. On the native side, 200 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 5: you also have, excuse me, the property related consumption items 201 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 5: fairly fairly weak here and probably that you can also 202 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 5: differentiate between the big ticket item and the small ticket item. 203 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 5: And then that's why in general there's still insufficient you know, 204 00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 5: domestic demand. And as a result of that, the government 205 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 5: brought up this issue at the two sessions. They talk 206 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 5: about how they're going to roll out a trade in 207 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 5: replacement subsidy programs in the coming days. As late as yesterday, 208 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 5: I think one of the officials run DRC talked about 209 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 5: how Ministry of Commerce is actually actively preparing the document 210 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 5: and could be released in the coming days. 211 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 1: Is that the cash for clunkers program? I think it's 212 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 1: being called that the replacement of certain household appliance, furniture, 213 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 1: things of that nature. 214 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 5: Yes, the program will cover a wide range of consumer goods. 215 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 5: You know, you would have a cash for clunker on 216 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,599 Speaker 5: the auto side. You would also have subsidy trade in 217 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 5: replacement for home appliance, home furlishing for instance, on the 218 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 5: auto side. That's really you know, quite exciting because if 219 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 5: you look at China, they have like you know, over 220 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 5: probably three hundred million cars on the road, and out 221 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 5: of that eleven million autos they don't really meet with 222 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 5: the emission standard these days. I either fairly old standards 223 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 5: and out of that eleven million, you have seven million 224 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 5: units that's older than fifteen years. I either have pretty 225 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 5: much reached that scrappage you know time. So we don't 226 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,839 Speaker 5: know the details yet, i e. The magnitude of subsidy, 227 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 5: but in principle it should be coming from i e. 228 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 5: The central government, local government, and the auto OEM's for instance. 229 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 5: So yeah, hopefully you know, this could be mature enough, 230 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 5: which you know, I think it's quite hopeful to turn 231 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 5: around the story. 232 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: Well, auto sales, what. 233 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 5: You know, we were talking about single digit, probably one 234 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 5: to two percent decline this year, but with the new program, 235 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 5: most likely this could turn positive. 236 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: I'm glad you're bringing up the ev issue because there's 237 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: this sense that there is still so much excess capacity 238 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: when it comes to electric vehicles. I know it's something 239 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: that the Europeans are concerned about, and recently when Treasury 240 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: Secretary Yellen was in China, she talked more broadly just 241 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 1: about the state of industrial overcapacity, but just as it 242 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:56,199 Speaker 1: relates to electric vehicles. Are you concerned that China is 243 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: still at a level right now that's going to require 244 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: a lot more consolidation and maybe that brings with it 245 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: a little bit more pain. 246 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 5: Yes, I noticed the recent Yellen visit in China. Both 247 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 5: sides clearly exchanged their views very frankly. So the definition 248 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 5: of over capacity, I think, you know, each side probably 249 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:21,559 Speaker 5: has their own definition, right, you know, from Chinese perspective. 250 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 5: It just talked about the US perspective, so if I could, 251 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 5: if I may, the China perspective is that the Chinese manufacturers, 252 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 5: they are entitled to produced for global consumers. So that's 253 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 5: really where the difference is, you know, are whereas you 254 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 5: know Yellen when she talked about the old capacity, she 255 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 5: probably was referring to comparing to domestic consumption. Every single year, 256 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 5: the auto sales in China is about eighteen to twenty 257 00:13:54,480 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 5: million cars, but the capacity is significantly big than that, 258 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 5: and hence, you know the difference between two countries, and 259 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 5: also the RENWT tension between China and EU as well. 260 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: So help me understand where China is right now in 261 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: this AI revolution. I mean, we've focused a lot about 262 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: the American companies that are leading in this field, whether 263 00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: it's an AI proper or some of the beneficiaries like 264 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: the chip manufacturer in video. Where is China in this 265 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: process of moving into the new stage of artificial intelligence. 266 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, frank speaking, it's pretty tough for China, right while 267 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 5: the US has very strict export restrictions in terms of 268 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 5: the type of cheaps AI related chips they can get. 269 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 5: So the computation power side certain, you know, China is 270 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 5: significantly hand decapped. And then that's why in terms of 271 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 5: the foundation models, that's pretty much all coming out of 272 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 5: you know, the Silicon Valley. But the good thing is that, yeah, 273 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 5: a majority of the foundation model we have seen so far, 274 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 5: you know, choose to do open source, which you know 275 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 5: could help Chinese software companies, you know, I T companies 276 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 5: to quickly you know adapt and playing the uh the 277 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 5: catch up, especially in the AI agent you know, i E. 278 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 5: Application side of things. 279 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: Okay, Steven, it was a pleasure to have you on 280 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: the program. Congratulations you did so well on your first 281 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: visit with us here on day breakas Steven Soon, head 282 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 1: of research at HSB Chianghai, joining us from our studios 283 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong, our guest from our studios in Singapore. 284 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: Prashant Bayani asac Io at BNP Paraba Wealth Management. Prashant, 285 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. We were 286 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: just talking a moment ago about this taped reading on 287 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: overall economic activity in Singapore. Let's begin there. What's your 288 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: view on how well the Lion City is doing economically 289 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: these days? 290 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, if we look at lead indicators, I know the 291 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 2: GDPs just touch under expectations this morning, but thinking about 292 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 2: Singapore is a very open economy, of course, and if 293 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 2: you look at Taiwan, Korea, other export data is starting 294 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 2: to pick up. If you look at China, pmis in particular, 295 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 2: the exports that came out just last week were also 296 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 2: a bit better than expected. So I think from that side, 297 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 2: Singapore was start to benefit in the second half of 298 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 2: the year as we see a manufacturing recovery, and of 299 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 2: course uspmis as well. Ism is above fifty on the 300 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 2: manufacturing side. On the domestic side, of course, we've had 301 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: to get through the GST and a little bit of 302 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 2: a blip in inflation, so that we'll see, but we 303 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 2: think unemployments, low consumer spending will continue. So overall we 304 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 2: have a relatively constructive view on growth for the second 305 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 2: half of the year for Singapore. 306 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned China. Next week we'll get the 307 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: monthly activity data for the latest period. Talk to me 308 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 1: a little bit about your understanding of the reliance that 309 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 1: the Singaporean economy has on China. Is that beginning to 310 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:18,640 Speaker 1: decouple in any. 311 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 2: Way I mean Singapore? Of course, yes, there is a 312 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 2: very strong trade relationship with China or the US, other 313 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 2: parts of osion including Malaysia, so that's going to continue. 314 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 2: It hasn't materially changed, but I think where we've seen 315 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 2: flows create volatility was of course during COVID and the 316 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 2: tourism flows which now are picking up with airline airflight 317 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 2: capacity picking up within the region, so that is a help. 318 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 2: I think overall, Singapore's position is solidified, of course through 319 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 2: COVID in terms of as a regional financial center. Furthermore, 320 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,040 Speaker 2: when we think about global growth, it is very geared. 321 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 2: So we just look at the Taiwan export data, we 322 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 2: look at the Korean export data, and we look at 323 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 2: lead indicators like orders to inventory in China, and there 324 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 2: is a correlation between that and Singapore export data. And 325 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 2: Singapore course has a strong electronics semiconductor industry as well, 326 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 2: so we are very much in Singapore reliant on some 327 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 2: of the other countries in the region, and of course 328 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 2: and demand in the West. 329 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: So when it comes to the West, you're managing money 330 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 1: or at least guiding people who have wealth in the 331 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: APAC region where to put their money to work. How 332 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: are you viewing the US these days? 333 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, overall we've actually been overweight global equities, believe in 334 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 2: it since October twenty two when it was not a 335 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 2: consensus call. So we made a good stuck our next out. 336 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 2: We didn't get our next cut off luckily, but overall 337 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 2: within the US we're being more selective on sectors. So 338 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 2: the key is, you know, the MAG seven or Mag 339 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 2: four stocks are really driven returns last year and of 340 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 2: course even year to date, but you're starting to see 341 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 2: if you look under the surface, from say mid January 342 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:01,959 Speaker 2: late January onward, others sectors outperforming. Was the key is 343 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 2: to go higher? We felt for the US market we 344 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 2: need to see a broadening of sector performance. So if 345 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 2: you look at energy, look at materials, you look at healthcare, 346 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,359 Speaker 2: look at industrials, these kind of sectors actually have high 347 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 2: the low double digit high single digit returns here to date, 348 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 2: and we think that we need that broadening for the 349 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 2: market to go higher. And indeed that's what drove the 350 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 2: markets in the last six weeks, and tech took a 351 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 2: little bit of a breather. So overall, we think we're 352 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 2: sector driven. And of course last year you could have 353 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 2: been overweight the US, but if you're underweight tech, you 354 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 2: would have underperformed. Flip side Now is we think, yes, 355 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 2: we're we might be neutral tech, but we'll overweight some 356 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 2: of the sectors we just spoke about. 357 00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: So is that based on an understanding of the role 358 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 1: that the American government is playing right now and trying 359 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: to stimulate the economy the themes that you just laid out, 360 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: and I'm hearing you know, maybe evs, maybe infrastructure, healthcare 361 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 1: is in there as well. I mean, is this are 362 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: you making a connection between what the federal government and 363 00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: the is doing and how it may be impacting the economy. 364 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,440 Speaker 2: That's correct. In my career, we've not seen this level 365 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 2: of fiscal stimulus from the US government when unemployment's below 366 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,199 Speaker 2: four percent, simple as that. So that does have a 367 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 2: knock on impact on the economy. Construction, if you look 368 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 2: at manufacturing, construction CAPEX in the US, it's really almost 369 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 2: like a hockey stick in terms of compared to the 370 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 2: last twenty years. So yes, of course that plays a 371 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 2: role in terms of some of the sectors we spoke 372 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 2: about on the reshoring side and just general construction and 373 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 2: fiscal stimulus, so it has some impact. And of course 374 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 2: these sectors also were viewed at their old economy sectors 375 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 2: and last year with all the focus on AI, which 376 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 2: of course long term were bullish on as well, these 377 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 2: sectors were left behind. So you know, it reminds me 378 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 2: a little bit and I'm showing my age, but you know, 379 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 2: coming out of two thousand, we don't think we're in 380 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: a tech bubble like two thousand, but we saw a 381 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 2: lot of value sectors become cheap by March of two thousand, 382 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 2: So there is something that the fiscal side does help 383 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:01,400 Speaker 2: some of those sectors. 384 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: So when it comes to AI, maybe you know, bubble 385 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 1: is an extreme way of describing what we have seen, 386 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 1: and I don't necessarily think that it's what people are 387 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 1: describing it is, but I think there's a big question 388 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: mark when it comes to the ROI for the companies 389 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 1: that are investing in products, let's say made by Nvidia. 390 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 1: They're building out these data centers. The expectation here is 391 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: that they can begin training their AI models on whatever 392 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,919 Speaker 1: data they choose. But the question is whether or not 393 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: there's going to be a benefit, whether the level of 394 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: productivity justifies the expense. Is that fair and is something 395 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 1: maybe that you're concerned about. 396 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:38,680 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean you hit the nail on the head. 397 00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 2: It's clear there are productivity benefits. Of course, it could 398 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,399 Speaker 2: take maybe longer than we think. There's a lot of 399 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,360 Speaker 2: studies on, you know, initially what the prote events could be, 400 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 2: but it's still too early to say. But it's very 401 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 2: clear that these technologies do have both efficiency benefits and 402 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 2: even top line benefits. So if you remember the metaphse, 403 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 2: there was a similar hype at that time, but that 404 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 2: that disappointed somewhat in its rollout period. This is a 405 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 2: little bit different because it creates efficiencies on this services sector. 406 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 2: It's not just manufacturing sector, so that's a little bit different. 407 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 2: So companies, as you know, they're lean and mean, they're 408 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 2: focused on return on investment, so they're going to experiment 409 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 2: and there'll be some i'm sure disappointments, but overall we 410 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 2: think there are benefits longer term, but this plays out 411 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 2: over three, five, ten years, the productivity benefits that come 412 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 2: from AI, and of course the rate of change is accelerating. 413 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: But at the same time we'll learn things as things 414 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 2: are rolled out as well that we need to improve. 415 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: So Prime Minister Keishada is in the States talking to 416 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 1: President Biden yesterday at the White House. They unveiled at 417 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,119 Speaker 1: kind of some kind of cooperation as it relates to 418 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence. Prashanta very quickly here when it comes to Japan, 419 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: is the play something related to technology or is it? 420 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:56,960 Speaker 1: Is it different? 421 00:22:58,320 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Japan we've been overweight as well for 422 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 2: a long time. I think it's both. Japan has a 423 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 2: strong semiconductor tech industry, but we also like the domestic 424 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 2: economy for economic rebound inbound tourism both and also improving 425 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 2: corporate governance now which is well advertised. But you are 426 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 2: seeing record SHPE share buyback levels in Japan, so we 427 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 2: think for stop pickers it's a great place. Still. 428 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: Pshaw, it was a pleasure to have you on the program. 429 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: I hope it is a productive day for you in 430 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,159 Speaker 1: Allion City. Prashant Bayani, who is the CIO for Asia 431 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,240 Speaker 1: at BNP perry By Wealth Management. Coming to us from 432 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: our studios in Singapore. This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak 433 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,679 Speaker 1: Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and moving 434 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel 435 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: on YouTube to get more episodes of this and other 436 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 1: shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 437 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio, 438 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.