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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen funny, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty, forty five,

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kick Ass Block.

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Speaker 2: Look all fuckball, Laura stunder.

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Speaker 3: God, oh my goodness, he stumbled, and.

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Speaker 2: The latter turn a counter on the.

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Speaker 3: Job, don't you.

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Speaker 1: The lad.

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Speaker 2: Came off the field to night.

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Speaker 4: It's not the sage on the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 4: it's the sage.

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Speaker 2: Of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, brought to

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Speaker 3: you by bet MGM. And this is the group five

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Speaker 3: Deep Dive and I'm Mike Caliberys, joined as always by

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Speaker 3: Mike Ianello. We're coming off one of our best weeks

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Speaker 3: in recent memory. I went ten and four in the app.

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Speaker 3: I believe Iinella went nine and four as well, So

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Speaker 3: we were really putting stringing together some winners, which was fantastic.

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Speaker 3: We had some good beats there at the ends. And

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Speaker 3: I believe your only loser was on a sixty one

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Speaker 3: yard field goal that was in Power five lands Case

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Speaker 3: State MISSOO, what was your emotions on that one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I had Kansas State money line and like three

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Speaker 2: different parlays. Betam Jam has this great, great problem they've

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Speaker 2: been doing during college football where they have like a

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Speaker 2: risk free parlay that if you lose, you get your

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Speaker 2: money back. So I did get my money back, but

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Speaker 2: I had Kansas State money line in that, So losing

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Speaker 2: that on a SEC record field goal was certainly a

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Speaker 2: bit of a kick in the dick pun intended. But

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Speaker 2: I actually had a question for you Calbary speaking of betting,

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Speaker 2: who had Week three in the pool? Who cast Week

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Speaker 2: three in the betting pool? You know what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 2: I don't know who had Week three as the Hank

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Speaker 2: Bachmeer injury.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like Hank Blackmeier to me is like taking

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Speaker 3: to It's on Tua by loa to win NFL MVP.

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Speaker 3: The fact that Tua is number one in the market

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Speaker 3: to an MVP is ridiculous, Like he's really gonna play

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Speaker 3: fifteen games this year, Like I can get out of here.

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Speaker 2: I guess Blachmer hasn't been doing his jiu jitsu and

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Speaker 2: learn how to fall.

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Speaker 3: It's the old Alan Iverson, like he hit the deck

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Speaker 3: like twenty five times a game for the Sixers in

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Speaker 3: the early two thousands. We never got hurt. I mean,

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Speaker 3: there's something to be said for learning how to fall like.

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Speaker 3: He looks like he falls on his keys every time

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Speaker 3: he gets sacked, so I'm not surprised that he's injured

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Speaker 3: at this point. Let's show me the G five heroes.

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Speaker 3: By the way, I just want to throw this out there.

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Speaker 3: You hit me with a trivia question, I'm gonna hit

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Speaker 3: you with one right away. My two G five heroes,

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Speaker 3: Matthew Miles and Brian Ernest locked hero play. Do you

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Speaker 3: know who they are in relation to college football? No, Jould,

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Speaker 3: I why should you? Because they were the field judge

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Speaker 3: and back judge of the Ohio Iowa State game. And

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Speaker 3: it's been a long time for me to hit one

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Speaker 3: of these underdogs to win outright, And here it was

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Speaker 3: a ten to seven win, and the Iowa State kicker

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Speaker 3: clearly made a field goal, and they, you know, both

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Speaker 3: are looking up at the post. Nah, that's no good.

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Speaker 3: Even the announcers were like, they're gonna review it. Clearly,

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Speaker 3: I mean, this obviously went in. Now let's just keep

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Speaker 3: it going. Let's move on to the next possession. From

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Speaker 3: our vantage point, it looked good and for some reason

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Speaker 3: this play was not reviewed.

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Speaker 2: Rocket did not call down or shoot me call up

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Speaker 2: to review it.

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Speaker 3: But it looks like it goes over topical but sneaks

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Speaker 3: right in.

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Speaker 4: I mean, is that not worth a look?

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Speaker 3: Rockey? That's good.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 3: I haven't caught a break like that in a long time.

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Speaker 3: It's like, you know, watching a basketball game and seeing

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Speaker 3: a shot go in and just be like, nah, that

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Speaker 3: was a brick. So the fact that they were able

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Speaker 3: to bail me out there my G five heroes of

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Speaker 3: the week. Sometimes you can get host by the officials.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes you get a miracle like that. And the game

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Speaker 3: where Ohio score ten points, I needed every break that

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Speaker 3: I could get way to go. Bobcats now in a

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Speaker 3: position to maybe hit double digit wins this year. So

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Speaker 3: I'm really impressed they They lived up to the hype. Defensively,

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Speaker 3: Iowa State was stuck in the mud for four quarters.

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Speaker 3: So those are my G five heroes.

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Speaker 2: How about you?

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Speaker 3: In Week three? Who are your heroes?

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Speaker 2: I love it. By the way we have we might

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Speaker 2: need to have a conversation about the MAC at some point,

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Speaker 2: because Max pretty good. I cheated as well. I also

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Speaker 2: have two Jaden Mayeva and Jose Pizzano. I think Seysai

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Speaker 2: UNLV the UNLV backup quarterback Jaden Maeva. He comes in

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Speaker 2: passing touchdown, rushing touchdown Jose Pizzano. Their kicker had four

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Speaker 2: field grows, including the game winner to give unlv A

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Speaker 2: forty to thirty seven win against Vanderbilt. How about the

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Speaker 2: Rebels getting a big SEC win. So those are my

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Speaker 2: two G five heroes this week.

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Speaker 3: See when when we were cranking out winners, it is

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Speaker 3: just positivity left and right. It's easy to pick out

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Speaker 3: these heroes. I'll top right into the best bet here

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Speaker 3: in week number four, and I'm gonna start with a

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Speaker 3: team that we were pumping their tires all off season.

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Speaker 3: They got off to a bad start and they had

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Speaker 3: a bye week, so they kind of fell off the

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Speaker 3: national radar. Then they're right in the middle of the

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Speaker 3: Deon Sanders Media Hurricane Colorado State catching two this week,

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Speaker 3: traveling to Murphysboro to play Middle Tennessee. And when I

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Speaker 3: looked at the Action Network Power Rankings one hundred and

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Speaker 3: seventh for the RAMS SP plus ranking form ESPN one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty second, I was going to say, you

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Speaker 3: know what, my core thought on this is bullshit. This

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Speaker 3: offense can cook Breden Fowler, Nicolosi can run this offense.

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Speaker 3: He had three sixty seven through the air against the Buffaloes.

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Speaker 3: Tory Horton and Dallen Holker looked like grown ass men.

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Speaker 3: And it makes sense for Hoker because he's twenty three,

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Speaker 3: he's married, he's already done a Mormon mission to Chile.

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Speaker 3: He can speak Spanish. If not coincidental that he is

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Speaker 3: a man, but he looks like the best G five

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Speaker 3: tight end in the entire country, if not the best

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Speaker 3: tight end, because they don't seem to be able to

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Speaker 3: fully feature, you know, the Bauer hour down there in Athens.

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Speaker 3: So I'm going to go ahead and say this offense

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Speaker 3: keeps rolling against a Middle Tennessee team that isn't very good.

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Speaker 3: I think it's pretty clear that what the Rams showed

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Speaker 3: against Colorado. Yes they blew a lead, yes they also know,

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Speaker 3: but they outgained the Buffaloes by eighty yards. They're ten

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Speaker 3: for twenty on third down, and they killed themselves with penalties.

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Speaker 3: They had seventeen penalties in that game, one hundred and

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Speaker 3: eighty two yards worth and four turnovers. Really, if any

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Speaker 3: of those turnovers go the other way, or if they

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Speaker 3: can cut down on some of the penalties, losing Kamara

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Speaker 3: their pass rushing specials in the second half, they probably

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Speaker 3: win that game. Now they're up against the Middle Tennessee

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Speaker 3: Blue Raiders team that's just not nearly as explosive as

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Speaker 3: the Colorado Buffalo's team was, and you know, can Colorado state.

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Speaker 3: To me, the question is can they weather the first

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Speaker 3: half storm without Kamara because tomorrow will get the targeting penalty,

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Speaker 3: so he's out for the first thirty minutes. If they

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Speaker 3: can keep this game around even or you know, have

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Speaker 3: it be a one possession game one way or the other,

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna run away within the second half.

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Speaker 3: I think they gained confidence in terms of what their

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Speaker 3: ceiling is. And we talked about it through the preseason.

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Speaker 3: If they had a competent offensive line, this offense was

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Speaker 3: going to sing they're absolutely average. I mean, then the

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Speaker 3: best way possible, they gave, you know, Valery Nickelosi time

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Speaker 3: to operate. I think they're going to do the same here.

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Speaker 3: What are your thoughts on the Blue Raiders as might

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Speaker 3: you know, Fade pick here as my best bet a

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Speaker 3: week four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, honestly, I'm gonna say it and I'm gonna touch

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Speaker 2: on it later. There's a little teaser now to get

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Speaker 2: into my best bet. I have a question for you.

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Speaker 2: So a similar game where you know you have a

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Speaker 2: G five team that played a Power five team close,

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Speaker 2: looked good, but did lose. I have a question for you.

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Speaker 2: I know you're a power ratings guy. Which team did

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Speaker 2: you adjust more? Alabama down or South Florida up?

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Speaker 3: Alabama down?

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Speaker 2: Agreed, I'm taking Rice minus two and a half. I

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Speaker 2: think this line's a bit of an overreaction to South

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Speaker 2: Florida hang with Alabama. I think it says a lot

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Speaker 2: more about Alabama than it does the Bulls. South Florida

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Speaker 2: managed eighty seven yards passing in that game. They ran

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Speaker 2: the ball well with Byron Brown, but they struggled to

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Speaker 2: run the ball with the running backs all season. They

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Speaker 2: had just a twenty six percent success rate on offense

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Speaker 2: against Bama. I just think Rice is much better than

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Speaker 2: South Florida. South Florida as a total has eight touchdowns

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Speaker 2: this year. Brown has four passing and four rushing. He's

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Speaker 2: their whole offense. There are one hundred and thirty in

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Speaker 2: the country in success rate. We saw Austin Reid and

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Speaker 2: Western Kentucky throw for six three hundred and sixty six

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Speaker 2: yards against his team. They put up forty one points.

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Speaker 2: Alabama wasn't able to move the ball, but it was

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Speaker 2: literally like a hurricane. They had a weather delay, and

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Speaker 2: Alabama's quarterbacks are trash, which we've seen. I think JT.

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Speaker 2: Daniels was really good. He's averaging two under and sixty

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Speaker 2: eight yards per games. He got eight touchdowns. Luke McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: looks awesome. I mean, he had a ridiculous catch against Houston,

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Speaker 2: like one handed catch. Brayln Walker is aving twenty one

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Speaker 2: yards per catch. They have a pretty good tight end.

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Speaker 2: They have a lot of weapons on offense. While they

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Speaker 2: don't run the ball a ton. You know, Dean Connors

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Speaker 2: is averaging five point seven yards per carry. He's in

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Speaker 2: pretty efficient. I mentioned him last last week. Maybe my

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Speaker 2: new favorite player in college football. Daleen Alexander just the

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Speaker 2: most efficient back in the country. Fourteen carries, forty yards,

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Speaker 2: five touchdowns. You just give him the ball, he's gonna score.

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Speaker 2: And Rice is thirty second in success right on defense,

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Speaker 2: and that's with games against Texas and Houston to bat.

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Speaker 2: So I don't think South Foyd is gonna do anything

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Speaker 2: on offense. Pass Stevens was good last year. It looks

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Speaker 2: like it's their strength again. I expect Rice with JT.

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Speaker 2: Daniels to pick up big plays through the air against

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Speaker 2: South Florida Bulls are going to continue to struggle. Rice

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Speaker 2: is fifth in the country and finishing drives because, like

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Speaker 2: I said, anytime to get the red zone, give the

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Speaker 2: ball to Dan. Alexander punches it in for the short

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Speaker 2: touchdown minus two and a half I think is way

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Speaker 2: too long in this game. I love Rice here. I

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Speaker 2: didn't they they I didn't blow them out bump. Being honest,

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Speaker 2: I would play this. I think they win by double digits.

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Speaker 2: So I love laying under a field goal with Rice.

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Speaker 3: Just as you said, I have strong opinions on your

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Speaker 3: best bet, but I'm gonna save it for the.

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Speaker 2: Work at US. People know we don't talk about this beforehand,

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Speaker 2: so we're we're feeling it. We're feeling it all right.

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Speaker 3: We're now into the G five high five. Every single week,

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Speaker 3: we give you a bundle of picks you put together

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Speaker 3: in a round robin. You know, by twos, by threes,

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Speaker 3: however you want to put it together. You could also

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Speaker 3: just put together a full on parlay. The round robin

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Speaker 3: gives you an opportunity to not get burns by one

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Speaker 3: or two legs falling. So I'm gonna get started here

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Speaker 3: in week number four.

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Speaker 1: The G five high five should be high five high

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Speaker 1: five with the right I agree with you, like the

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Speaker 1: fact that South Florida is only you know, it's less

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Speaker 1: than a field goal dog at home.

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Speaker 3: South Florida is not there offensively at all, whereas Rice,

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Speaker 3: to me is already a finished product in the G

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Speaker 3: five level. They went to a bowl game last year.

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Speaker 3: Everything that I needed to see from JT. Daniels to

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Speaker 3: kind of elevate this offense is there. He played against

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Speaker 3: Houston and this was a Houston defense with Doug Belk

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Speaker 3: that absolutely shut down UTSA and the opener he goes

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Speaker 3: for four h one through the air and three tds.

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Speaker 3: He kept it up last week, the positive momentum. He's

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Speaker 3: a quarterback who can sometimes be up and down. He

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Speaker 3: had four more passing touchdowns. I know they played Texas Southern,

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Speaker 3: but I just liked the positive momentum week over week

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Speaker 3: and South Florida. There's been way too much credit for

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Speaker 3: Alabama no showing their game. The Alabama defense showed up.

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Speaker 3: If it wasn't for field position, they would probably have

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Speaker 3: shut out the Bulls, and Alabama's offense was just mega dysfunctional.

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Speaker 3: They weren't putting in full effort. So I understand that

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Speaker 3: USF is getting this big bump, and you know, they

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Speaker 3: looks great against the Mighty Tide. They've also played Western Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: As you mentioned, you've got to read sets, and they

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Speaker 3: played Florida A and M Florida A and M quarterback

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Speaker 3: Moosa through for three hundred and seventy four yards. Like JT.

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Speaker 3: Daniels is going to carve up this defense, it's not ready.

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Speaker 3: And the ten analytics, you know department that we like

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Speaker 3: to lean on from time to time, they have Rice

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Speaker 3: minus five and a half. My numbers have it at

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Speaker 3: RICE minus seven. So to get up below those two

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Speaker 3: key numbers, the touchdown and the field goal, it's too

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Speaker 3: good for me to pass up. I'm going to start

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Speaker 3: off our round robin here and we four with that

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Speaker 3: one bye.

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Speaker 2: Way last week we double dipped in that one easily.

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Speaker 2: So so far, when we're in sync, we have a

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Speaker 2: good track record. For my first G five high five pick,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with James Madison minus six and a half

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Speaker 2: against Utah State. Is James Madison the best G five

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Speaker 2: team in the country because I think other than Tulane,

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Speaker 2: they you could probably make a good argument James Madison

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Speaker 2: is the second best CHIEF five team in the country.

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Speaker 2: Do you agree with that?

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Speaker 3: Everything except for quarterback play, with obviously is a huge

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Speaker 3: element of you know, where's your ceiling as a team.

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Speaker 3: I think they you can make a strong argument they

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Speaker 3: have the highest floor of any G five team. They're

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Speaker 3: incredibly well coached. They played great defense. You know, they're

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Speaker 3: just buttoned up across the board. But quarterback play, I

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Speaker 3: can't really get overly excited about what they put out

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Speaker 3: there through three weeks. But they're undefeated for a reason,

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Speaker 3: and it's because, you know, that's kind of bigged into

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Speaker 3: their game plan. They're not, you know, requiring these huge

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Speaker 3: cistical performances to get things done and to cover spreads.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not that far away. But you know, if

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Speaker 3: they had a guy like Cinteo as they did last year,

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Speaker 3: then I'd be probably on board with your sentiment there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but this defense, they certainly have the best defense

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Speaker 2: in the G five. They're dominant, they're eleven in the

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Speaker 2: country and success rate they were first last year. Their

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Speaker 2: front seven is so good. James Carpenter and Jalen Green

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Speaker 2: up front, Terris Jones and Jalen Walker at linebacker. They're

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Speaker 2: just you can't run on this team. They're second in

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Speaker 2: the country in success right against the run, and that's

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Speaker 2: pretty much the only thing you da State's done decently

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Speaker 2: this year. You know, Davon Booth had a pretty good year.

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Speaker 2: Kooper Lagay is terrible. As we said coming into the air,

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Speaker 2: he stinks. He was benched last week for McKay Hillstead,

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Speaker 2: which is just a ridiculous name.

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Speaker 3: And I believe he's gonna be the starter for this game.

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Speaker 2: I think I read that in the last you know,

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Speaker 2: I guess he looked better than the God. But that's

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Speaker 2: not saying a ton.

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Speaker 3: I mean it.

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Speaker 2: God's terrible and there's a reason he wasn't the start

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Speaker 2: to begin with. I'm assuming and but you mentioned, yeah, Okay,

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Speaker 2: Jordan McLeod is not, you know, gonna play in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But this Utah State defense is terrible and James Madison's

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Speaker 2: offense does exactly what they're supposed to do. They run

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Speaker 2: the ball well with Calen Black, Tyson Lawton, and Jordan

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Speaker 2: McLeod protects the football. He has no interceptions this year,

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Speaker 2: and then they went with their defense. James Madison has

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Speaker 2: already gone on the road and beating Virginia, who, while

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Speaker 2: not good, is a Power five team. They beat Troy,

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Speaker 2: who won the Sun Belt last year and was you know,

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Speaker 2: terrific all year. Both those games are on the road.

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Speaker 2: They should have no problem with you testa here. I

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Speaker 2: think you tested it's terrible, So I gu said. I

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Speaker 2: think James Madison is in the upper tier of G five,

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Speaker 2: so a touchdown, you know, unless they just come out here,

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Speaker 2: James Madisons have no problem with you to state here.

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Speaker 3: Usually this is more of an NFL exercise for me,

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Speaker 3: but I like to kind of spot those fishy lines

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Speaker 3: where I was like, you know, there's not a lot

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Speaker 3: of juice or public sentiment behind this team. Only do

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Speaker 3: my homework and see if I can talk myself into

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Speaker 3: In this case Utah State, I kick the tires on it.

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Speaker 2: I can't do it.

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Speaker 3: The quarterback play is not there, as you mentioned, the

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Speaker 3: defense is ghastly. Terrell Vaughn's is great at the wide

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Speaker 3: receiver position, but he's a little receiver. I think they're

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Speaker 3: gonna be able to game plan to kind of take

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Speaker 3: him out of the equation for the Aggies, and generally speaking,

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Speaker 3: you know, if UTAs State is playing good football, they

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Speaker 3: get raucous home crowds. But this year, I just don't

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Speaker 3: see that being a deciding factor for a James Madison

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Speaker 3: team that all the way back to their FCS days,

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Speaker 3: they know how to travel, they know how to win

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Speaker 3: on the road, they know how to you know, maintain

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Speaker 3: their quality and standard to play throughout an entire season.

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Speaker 3: I think it's one of the reasons why their transition

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Speaker 3: has been so seamless up to the FBS level. So

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Speaker 3: to be honest, I think I've gone from Utah State

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Speaker 3: Lean That's what I wanted it to be through my

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Speaker 3: research and you know argument here, I think I'm now

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Speaker 3: on the Dukes. All right, I'm going to go to

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Speaker 3: a team that if you told me six weeks ago

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Speaker 3: that very quickly I'd be interested in playing, I would

339
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Speaker 3: have said, you're crazy. It's FIU plus ten and a half. Now.

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Speaker 3: Last week I was on Liberty was my best bet.

341
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Speaker 3: Stucky was on the other side of it, and he

342
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Speaker 3: was kind of walking through why situationally, it wasn't a

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Speaker 3: great place for the Flames to drop a big number

344
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Speaker 3: and to easily cover. They did that, and Keinen Salter

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Speaker 3: has looked incredible in Jamie Chadwell's offense. He's unlocked every

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Speaker 3: piece of potential in him. But here's the thing. This

347
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Speaker 3: liberty run defense is still not very good. And that's,

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Speaker 3: you know, statistically speaking, even with game flow working in

349
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Speaker 3: their favor, winning three straight games going away where teams

350
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Speaker 3: have to abandon the run. Now here comes the FIU Panthers.

351
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Speaker 3: They're averaging over five yards per carrier, the thirtieth in

352
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Speaker 3: the country. But here's the key elements. In the preseason,

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Speaker 3: Grayson James I was like, I'm out on this guy.

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Speaker 3: I can't see that. I can't see him helping them

355
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Speaker 3: in any way, shape or form, and very quickly the

356
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Speaker 3: FIU coaching staff felt the same way. They go to

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Speaker 3: Keon Jenkins, now three, and I was a starter former

358
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Speaker 3: Auburn commit. He played at Miami Central in high school,

359
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Speaker 3: which is an absolute power, and they won three straight

360
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Speaker 3: state titles with him as the starting quarterback. He was

361
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Speaker 3: the Miami Dade Offensive Player of the Year. And when

362
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,400
Speaker 3: you watch him play, he's a lefty. He's got great

363
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Speaker 3: chemistry with their number one wide receiver Chris Mitchell. Since

364
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Speaker 3: he took over as the starter, Mitchell has eighteen receptions

365
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,760
Speaker 3: three hundred and sixty eight yards four scores. So what

366
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Speaker 3: I see as an FIU offense that used to just

367
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Speaker 3: be run heavy and hoping that they could cut some

368
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Speaker 3: brakes in the turnover game. Now they got a little

369
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Speaker 3: bit of fight offensively with Jenkins as the quarterback, and

370
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Speaker 3: I like that, particularly getting it over the key number

371
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Speaker 3: of ten and then just to kind of sweeen the

372
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Speaker 3: pot for me. Mike McIntyre, he's been a turnaround specialist.

373
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Speaker 3: You gotta remember this guy was the former AP home

374
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Speaker 3: depot Walter Camp, Eddie Robinson, every single athlete in the country.

375
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Speaker 3: He won Coach of the Year in twenty sixteen. I

376
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Speaker 3: think some people forget that because his tenure ended in

377
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Speaker 3: kind of an ugly fashion there in Colorado. But he

378
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 3: won ten games in his final game his final season

379
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Speaker 3: at San Jose State, and now he's working to turnaround

380
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,040
Speaker 3: at FIU. And when you look at his five turnarounds

381
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,879
Speaker 3: San Jose and FIU ten and four against the spread

382
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Speaker 3: as a home dog, I'm gonna go ahead and take

383
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Speaker 3: them here. I think this is off by let's call

384
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 3: it three three and a half points. I think Liberty

385
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,320
Speaker 3: at some point is going to stumble, and they're gonna

386
00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,200
Speaker 3: stumble against a team that can run the football. So

387
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Speaker 3: I'll go ahead and fade the Flames after having them

388
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Speaker 3: as my best bet. Nothing feels better than ping ponging

389
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 3: back and forth and absolutely nailing calls on a team.

390
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Speaker 3: I'm trying to do the tight rope walk, but I've

391
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Speaker 3: seen enough from FIU. I'm into it.

392
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it at all. And obviously I

393
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Speaker 2: was on Liberty with you last week, but I think

394
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Speaker 2: that was much more of a fade of Buffalo than

395
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Speaker 2: it was necessarily my belief in Liberty. I'm still I'm

396
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,639
Speaker 2: still playing washing Kentucky when they play. I think it

397
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 2: was more just don't I don't think Buffalo is very good,

398
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Speaker 2: So I don't hate that play at all. For my

399
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,400
Speaker 2: second and final play of the G five five five breeze,

400
00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,400
Speaker 2: every now and again, you gotta throw out the math

401
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 2: and just have some fun and bet what you want

402
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,640
Speaker 2: to happen. And it's a little bit of that this week.

403
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,080
Speaker 2: Give me the SMU TCU over because this game is

404
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 2: gonna be fun, and it usually is. Both these teams.

405
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 2: It's over sixty three and a half. I don't even care.

406
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,400
Speaker 2: I pretty much played it anything. Both these teams play

407
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 2: super fast. Both these teams love picking up big plays.

408
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,919
Speaker 2: SMU is fifteenth in explosiveness on offense, but they're one

409
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,560
Speaker 2: hundred and seventeenth at preventing big plays. TCU is one

410
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,520
Speaker 2: hundred and tenth at preventing big plays. This is just

411
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Speaker 2: gonna be big play after big play. DC has looked

412
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 2: good against the run so far, but they have been

413
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Speaker 2: shredded through the air. We saw what Colorado did against

414
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,040
Speaker 2: this team. Even Houston had for exposed to plays, and

415
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Speaker 2: I don't think they're very good on offense. It's Preston

416
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Speaker 2: stone time. It's you know, I mean, what can I

417
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:50,280
Speaker 2: say about him anymore? He's my boy. I like it.

418
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Speaker 2: We're going back to the stone age. He's already thrown

419
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 2: nine touchdowns this year. He's averaging eight point four yards

420
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Speaker 2: per drop back, not even per pass. They've had eight

421
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 2: players catch touchdown for the Mustangs this year. Their receiver

422
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 2: room is so freaking deep, Bailey, Hudson, Daniels, Curly Dixon,

423
00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,400
Speaker 2: there are so many guys. He wanted a little sprinkle.

424
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Speaker 2: I mentioned I've cast the Jacob Cowen one last week,

425
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 2: doubling down again. Jordan Hudson. He's SMU's second leading receiver.

426
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 2: He's already caught two touchdowns this year. He's a transfer

427
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 2: from TCU, played there last year. I think he caught

428
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 2: two or three touchdowns to them last year. But with

429
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Speaker 2: just buried on the depth chart. Another revenge game angle,

430
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 2: So sprinkle lit on the Jordan Hudson touchdown. I think

431
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Speaker 2: we're gonna see a lot of touchdowns in this game.

432
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 2: Jayalen Morris looks pretty good if people forget he was

433
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 2: the starter. He beat out Max Dugan last year at

434
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 2: a camp. He's having two hundred and eighty five yards

435
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 2: per game. He's also got his legs picking up key

436
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,880
Speaker 2: first downs. Amani Bailey's looked really good. He was stuck

437
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 2: behind Miller and De Marcatto last year, but he's a

438
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: big play threat. Some rivalry games naturally just turned into

439
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 2: slug fests, like the backyard brawl, which we always see.

440
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 2: Iron Skillet game is not one of those. Look at

441
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 2: these scores Las year forty two to thirty four, twenty one,

442
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 2: forty two to thirty four, twenty nineteen, forty one thirty eight,

443
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,199
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen forty two to twelve. That was a down year.

444
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 2: Twenty seventeen fifty six thirty six, twenty sixteen went under,

445
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen fifty six thirty seven. This game is consistently

446
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 2: played in the seventies in the eighties, and I've seen

447
00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,200
Speaker 2: from these two quarterbacks and what I've seen, these defenses

448
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:29,439
Speaker 2: given up big plays. Give me the smutcu over sixty

449
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 2: three and a half.

450
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 3: I love it. I love your anytime touchdown score, which

451
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 3: is a good opportunity to plug the tailgate. Tim Kalanowski

452
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 3: and I give out player props every Friday morning. We're

453
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 3: now eleven and three on the season. Just been absolutely

454
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 3: crushing him. He has fallen in love with a Vanderbilt

455
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 3: wide receiver. So if you're interested in some garbage time

456
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,160
Speaker 3: yard is and cashing some tickets, please listen in every

457
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 3: Friday morning as we get into the full slate. Yeah,

458
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 3: I agree with your assessment. This has been one of

459
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 3: those insane scar boards, lighting up kind of games year

460
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 3: after year after year. And Morris, as you pointed out,

461
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 3: he has been really comfortable in this offense. He's also

462
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,520
Speaker 3: good for like a head scratching pick or two per game.

463
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,719
Speaker 3: It's just a question of does he make those mistakes

464
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 3: in the red zone or in his own twenty and

465
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 3: then set SMU up with a short field because he

466
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 3: can certainly still serve up on a silver platter some

467
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 3: of these turnovers to an SMU defense that will be

468
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 3: happy to get the stops any way that they can. Yep,

469
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,719
Speaker 3: all right, I'm going to go with my final play here.

470
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 3: I've just loved the Dogs in Week four, and I'm

471
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 3: gonna keep with that. Georgia State the numbers now up

472
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 3: to seven. I still would play it at six and

473
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 3: a half, but getting seven at Coastal Carolina, this is

474
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 3: Georgia State program to me, has been always really well

475
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 3: coached under Sean Elliott. He's a SOLOG five coach in

476
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 3: six seasons. He's gone to four Bowl games in the

477
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 3: previous six seasons.

478
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 2: I just say.

479
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 3: And as a road dog since twenty twenty, the Panthers

480
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 3: are nine and four against the spread. So I got

481
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 3: my attention right off the bat because in terms of

482
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 3: teams that have played at least five games as road

483
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: dogs since twenty twenty, that makes them the twelfth most

484
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 3: profitable team in the entire country. And then when I

485
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 3: look at their offense, I figure that this is going

486
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 3: to be more of a shootout. Coastal Carolina's defense, I think,

487
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 3: based on their schedule, it looks like their defense is

488
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 3: a little bit better than expected. But I think this

489
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 3: could be the game that just breaks out into a

490
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: back and forth shootout. And does Georgia State have the

491
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 3: horses to keep up? I think they do. They got

492
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 3: a veteran quarterback in Granger eight total tds coming off

493
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 3: a monstrous game against Charlotte. I know that Club Lit

494
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 3: has been shut down if Pogy is trying to rebuild,

495
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 3: but he goes for four sixty six three tds almost

496
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: a ninety four QBR in that game. He's playing some

497
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,199
Speaker 3: of his best football of his career. Marcus Carroll has

498
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 3: come you know, been in a running back by committee

499
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 3: situation for years with Georgia State. He's now stepped up.

500
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 3: He's the feature back, averaging over five yards per carrying

501
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 3: seven tds. And then Robert Lewis at wide receiver. This

502
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 3: is the key player for them. He's mister big play.

503
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 3: He's averaging over twenty yards per catch. Their big three

504
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 3: I think is enough to keep up. And I see

505
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 3: this as a game that they're going to flirt with

506
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 3: the outright upset. I'm happy to take plus seven. I

507
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 3: think that's a phenomenal number. And keep in mind they

508
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 3: went into Conway and upset Coastal on the road in

509
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: twenty twenty one with Granger quarterback, so they've done this before. Now,

510
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 3: granted that was a better Coastal team, but they're playing

511
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 3: with a backup quarterback. But they still went ahead and

512
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 3: scored forty plus in that game. So I don't think

513
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: they're going to have the fear factor. This has clearly

514
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 3: been a Coastal team that's been more or less the

515
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: class of the Sun Belt for the last three years,

516
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 3: really since McCall took over. I think this is as

517
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: vulnerable as they're going to get in terms of a

518
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 3: mix with getting plus seven, So I'll go ahead and

519
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 3: take the points here. There's plenty of nostalgia with you know,

520
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: McCall catching so many tickets for US over the years,

521
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: and he's been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in

522
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 3: the entire country during his entire career. But as we

523
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 3: point out many times, he doesn't play defense, and I

524
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: think there's gonna be a lot of pressure on him

525
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 3: in Sun Belt play to be a magician, to stay healthy.

526
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that that's going to come to fruition

527
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 3: against the Georgia State team that I think is on

528
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 3: the cusp of some bigger things, maybe eight or nine

529
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 3: win season.

530
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously, you know, I hope they don't. I hope

531
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 2: Coastal wins because I have that Coastal wind total over,

532
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 2: but I don't need to play it all because I

533
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 2: think Georgia State. I've liked what I've seen from them.

534
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 2: I was done on them coming into the air because

535
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 2: I felt like they were going to be a Granger

536
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 2: do it all, which they kind of happened. But he's

537
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,719
Speaker 2: been able to do it all and to be fair

538
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: coast kind of like that with Grayson this year. But

539
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 2: what I like what I've seen from Georgia State is

540
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 2: they've kind of won in all different ways. You know,

541
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 2: the first the first game, it was all the Marcus

542
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: Carroll show. And then against Yukon when I bet against them,

543
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 2: you know, Carol played well, but Granger torched Yukon with

544
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 2: his legs. And then you mentioned it last week it

545
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 2: was it was all Granger's arm. I mean that might

546
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 2: have been the best passing performance I've ever seen that

547
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 2: of him. So kind of having those three different game

548
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 2: scripts does give me a good feeling because then you're like, Okay,

549
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,239
Speaker 2: if Coastal does one thing, well, they've shown they can

550
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 2: kind of do the other thing. I do like the

551
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 2: over You mentioned that as well. Yeah, I don't hate

552
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 2: it at all.

553
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 3: The Big Bets on Campus podcast is presented by Bett

554
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,560
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Speaker 3: We're now on to our underdog moneyline parlay. As I

581
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 3: mentioned at the top, Ohio sneaking out that win last

582
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 3: week for me, but I'll let I and L get

583
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: it started here this week and hopefully, to quote Trent Dilfer,

584
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: it goes gently because we're used to get an MF

585
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 3: as a quote, pressers or just the never ending gift

586
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:54,960
Speaker 3: in my life.

587
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 2: I mean that was gentle.

588
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: I'm used to being mf though hopefully it goes gently

589
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 3: for us. Let's get it started. What's your pick?

590
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned it. I'm doubling down. Give me Colorado State.

591
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: And I'm thankful for this podcast because we're on the

592
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: record of being huge Colorado State fans coming into the year.

593
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 2: So we don't, you know, get accused of overreacting to

594
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 2: that Colorado game, because everyone who listens knows we've been

595
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 2: high on them since the preseason and also weren't high

596
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,439
Speaker 2: in Middle Tennessee. I have a Colorado State over at

597
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee under so let's apparent this will be good

598
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 2: for both of us. You mentioned that, you know, we've

599
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 2: been high on Clay Millan, but Fallon to Cosy look

600
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: really good. I think he's much more explosive than Millan.

601
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 2: Millan's more safe, you know, he led the country in

602
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 2: complete percentage last year. Fallon and COSI, I think is

603
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: more aggressive and explosive. Three hundred and sixty seven yards,

604
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: three touchdown. He did their three picks. But's kind of

605
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 2: why I like him as a dog, as a moneyline dogs.

606
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 2: I think he provides a wider range of outcomes for

607
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 2: this offense.

608
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 3: You mentioned that you imagine, just to interject real quick,

609
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: can you imagine what this number would be if they

610
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 3: just won twenty eight to twenty against colorad That's a

611
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 3: top twenty five win in rivalry. The TV numbers were

612
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 3: off the charts. I think it was the highest streamed

613
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: game in terms of households ever on the ESPN app.

614
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: So I think this number would be like Colorado State

615
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 3: minus five six and a half. Instead you get them

616
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 3: as a dog. It's doesn't make a whole lot of

617
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: sense to me. I know that Murphy Burrow is sometimes

618
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 3: a tricky place to play, but not enough to back

619
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 3: me off this.

620
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 2: Game, Yeah, Manning's because it's gonna be so much quieter

621
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 2: than Colorado was. But you mentioned the biggest issue with

622
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 2: Colorado State is always their offensive line. Well, so far

623
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 2: this year, Middle Tennessee ranks one hundred and nineteenth in

624
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 2: pressure grade at PFF and they're one hundred and six

625
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: in havoc. Now was their strength last year, so they've

626
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 2: kind of They played you know, Alabama, Missouri, they played

627
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: tough games, but they have not done a good job

628
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 2: getting into the court after the quarterback as they did

629
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: last year, and the Blue Raiders really struggled against the pass,

630
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: and obviously that's all Colorado State wants to do. I mean,

631
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 2: we saw Jalen Milroe this defense and he stinks. So

632
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: what do you think, you know, Colorado State, that's all

633
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: they want to do is throw the ball. Note that

634
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: it's the offense is horrible, so I'm not really that

635
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 2: worried about it. We're both high on Carras State coming here,

636
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 2: as I said, so obviously the big question here is

637
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 2: is this a big letdown spot after that Colorado game

638
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: was so emotional, physical, somewhat dirty at times. They blow it,

639
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: they lose in overtime, is just a huge letdown spot,

640
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: which is kind of Actually I played the spread already,

641
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 2: but the more I dug into it, the more I

642
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 2: actually like the money line angle opposed to taking the points,

643
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: because I think if Colorado State plays their game and

644
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 2: plays up to our expectations for them, they're the better

645
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 2: team and they should win this game, or they fall flat,

646
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 2: they're depressed about the loss, and then they get crushed.

647
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 2: So I kind of like the the volatility of the

648
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 2: money line because I think if if they don't let

649
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: this game become a letdown spot, they should have no

650
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 2: problem winning because I think they're the better team. So

651
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: I think the money line is kind of a good

652
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 2: capitalize on the possibility of a letdown spot. But I'm

653
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 2: with you. I mean, you took them with the points.

654
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 2: I'm taking a money line. I need the better team,

655
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 2: so give me the rams.

656
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm just basically buying in on their swagger too.

657
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 3: You saw it in that Colorado game, Like Tory Horden

658
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 3: knows that he's a future NFL wide receiver.

659
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 2: He demands we're talking about it. How pretty that pass was?

660
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: That was? I mean he threw that was an absolute rope.

661
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so to me, they have confidence and

662
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 3: they're not a team that can afford to drop a

663
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: game like this to have to turn around that they're

664
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 3: hoping for, which you know, the goal is to get

665
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 3: to Bowl eligibility. They're owing to They played two Power

666
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: five opponents out of the PAC twelve. It's time to

667
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 3: turn it up. And for that reason, I do think

668
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 3: you're going to see maximum effort out of them in

669
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 3: this game. All Right, I'm going to go for my

670
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: money line. Dog Western Kentucky plus one sixty at Troy.

671
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 3: This is not your father's Troy team or the twenty

672
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: twenty two Troy team that was just absolutely nasty on defense.

673
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 3: It's forty ninth in total D but the headliner circling

674
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 3: it in you know red sharpie one hundred and twelfth

675
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: in havoc. Opposing team's you know, past success has been

676
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 3: incredibly high. Troy in that metric is eighty fifth nationally.

677
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 3: And I understand the hill Top has just got dump

678
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 3: trucked by Ohio State. Even so, Austin Reeds still at

679
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 3: a QBR seventy five in that game. So yes, they

680
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 3: lost huge to the Buckeyes. Their defense couldn't get a stop.

681
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 3: I don't care about that game. The Buckeyes are not

682
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 3: in the field here. Troy has, you know, i'll say,

683
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 3: a slightly above average G five offense, but nowhere near

684
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 3: the ceiling of Ohio State. And also, I think this

685
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: line is depressed a little bit by the fact that

686
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 3: Malachi Corley gets hurt in the opener. And is he

687
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 3: back to full strength? I think he is. He was

688
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 3: rolling in that game even tho against Ohio State secondary

689
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 3: eight catches eighty eight yards touchdown. He is going to

690
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: be able to ball out in this game. I think

691
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 3: this is an opportunity to get the better team with

692
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: the better offense and the better quarterback, and you don't

693
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 3: get plus money in that many situations. I understand they

694
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 3: got to go on the road here, but this Western

695
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: Kentucky team has the good offensively. They've also done a

696
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: great job protecting Read for all of his dropbacks. They throw,

697
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 3: you know, more than just about any team in the

698
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 3: entire country sixteenth and sack percentage allowed. So I'm going

699
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 3: to go with the Hilltoppers to get right, and honestly,

700
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 3: this is kind of a Western team that I think,

701
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 3: because of the blowout, is just flying under the radar.

702
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 3: So let's go ahead and get the value and go

703
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 3: with the team that we believed in from you know,

704
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 3: the preseason at least you did in terms of your

705
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 3: conference to essay title.

706
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: Pick yep, this was actually my second choice. I actually

707
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: texted this was the one we did talk about a

708
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: little peak behind the curtain because I saw Breeze put

709
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 2: both Western Kentucky and Colorado State in the app and

710
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: I texted him and said, which one are you taking

711
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 2: for your money? Line dog because I'm going to take

712
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 2: the other one because I like both of these. So

713
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 2: I could not agree with more card to Marshall walking

714
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 2: through that door. This is not the Troy team we

715
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: saw last year. They cannot run the ball at all,

716
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: Like you said, the defense taking a step back, and

717
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: that was that was basically their calling card last year.

718
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: So I absolutely like the Hilltoppers here as well.

719
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 3: Any picks before we get out of here that we're

720
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 3: on the cutting room four, that we're close, I'll just

721
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 3: throw my out there. Trent Dilfer, Trent baby oh Man

722
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 3: getting forty two against Georgia. The press conference, you know,

723
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 3: sin through the fifteen to sixteen minutes of it, he

724
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 3: basically did his best to feed some rat poison to Georgia.

725
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 3: Just talked about how great of a talent evaluator and

726
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: you know coach that Kirby Smart is, and how hard

727
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 3: the Georgia players play, just basically begging please just quit

728
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 3: in the third or fourth quarter so we don't lose

729
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 3: by seventy points. I think this is a Georgia game

730
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: where their offense has not played a full four quarter game. Effectively,

731
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 3: Bowers has not, you know, really shown that I mean preseason,

732
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 3: it was like Heisman talk. It was insane. I think

733
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: this could be a game where he gets you know,

734
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: multiple touchdowns and the offense will get right. They'll dump,

735
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 3: you know, through their reserves and you know, bring in

736
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 3: some of the bench to get some good reps and

737
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 3: to get everybody feeling good. This UAB defense is horrific.

738
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 3: We predicted it. They're maybe even worse than advertised. And

739
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 3: I think in this particular game there's a good chance

740
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 3: that they lose by fifty sixty points. So that was

741
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 3: it was close. It's still a lean for me because

742
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,440
Speaker 3: it's motivational. How much does Georgia want to do that

743
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 3: in between you know, SEC games? But I think they're

744
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 3: just gonna lay out Trent. So what are your thoughts?

745
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: I mean, I always love, by the way, the spread

746
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 2: of forty two total of fifty four. It's like, all right,

747
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 2: so the implied total there is what you know, what's

748
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 2: the what's the implied score on that? Again, I'm I've

749
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 2: given up doing math, but it's like, you know what

750
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 2: forty eight to six is basically what the implied scores there?

751
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: So I mean, at this point we should just change

752
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 2: our bonus the bonus bet segment.

753
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 3: To just you try to do math on the fly.

754
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:38,800
Speaker 2: No, I'm gonna say the let's let's let's pile on

755
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: category because you're gonna pile on Trent cutting Ram floor, Dana. Sorry,

756
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 2: you and LV minus two and a half, you Tip

757
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 2: strash and I'm just gonna keep fading them. I didn't

758
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: want to put it in the high five because I'm

759
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 2: just I feel bad at this point. I think you

760
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: know these better than you. Tip. We just saw him

761
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 2: beat Vandy with their backup quarterback so Land less than

762
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 2: a field goal against the Miners. I left that one off,

763
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 2: but I'll I will probably bet you and L the

764
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 2: minus two and a half against UTEP this week.

765
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 3: It wouldn't be a BBOC podcast brought to you by

766
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: bet MGM. The group of five deep dived without us

767
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 3: mentioning Butch Jones only a seven point home dog, and

768
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 3: I know that you know Southern miss likely will not

769
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 3: have Frank Gorg Junior in this game.

770
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 2: I thought you were going to take that. By the way,

771
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: I was waiting forreedom.

772
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 3: It was close. If it had stuck at six or

773
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 3: six and a half and there was any possibility of

774
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 3: Gorg junior playing, maybe I would have pulled the trigger,

775
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 3: but I don't want to just feed one team for

776
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 3: twelve consecutive weeks.

777
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 2: So that's that's why I left you tip off, like

778
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 2: I could pick against him every week if I want to.

779
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, we want to be a little bit tactical at times,

780
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 3: so it's a pass for me. But I wouldn't be

781
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 3: surprised if this just becomes another boat race situation for

782
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 3: the Red Wolves, even at home Southern Miss it's a

783
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 3: good bounce back spot. They got their doors blown off

784
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: by FSU. They did not play very well against Tulane.

785
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 3: I think they have a higher ceiling. I think they'll

786
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 3: get it together. I think they're well coached. So yeah,

787
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 3: that's still a team that if you need a play

788
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 3: obviously to kickoff here kickoffs at seven pm. If you're

789
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 3: taking some losses in the noon three point thirty window,

790
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 3: you may as well just fire up Southern Miss lay

791
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 3: in the seventh. Yeah.

792
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: The one other one I had kind of somewhat toyed

793
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 2: with was I mentioned how good I think the mac

794
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 2: has looked this year. I considered Eastern Michigan. They're plus

795
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 2: six and a half against Jacksonville State, I mean honest,

796
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 2: I almost I almost threw my money line is kind

797
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 2: of a bigger swing. I just like Chris Creighton as

798
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 2: a coach. This is one where I think, if this

799
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 2: hit seven, I'll pull the trigger on Eastern Michigan. I

800
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 2: would not be shocked if they win this game. I

801
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: think the MAC has looked really good and I cannot

802
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: wait for those Tuesday nights in November.

803
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jacksonville State playing two quarterbacks at times, they haven't

804
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 3: looked at dynamic in the run game. I think they're

805
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 3: fortunate to have the record. This is the time of

806
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 3: year when coaches love to say, like our record, you know,

807
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 3: is indicative of exactly who we are and how good

808
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 3: we are.

809
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 2: That's crap.

810
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 3: Like you can steal wins, you can get lucky in

811
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 3: the turnover margin, I mean in the UTEP opener, and

812
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 3: we've adamantly against UTEP like Jacksonville State should have lost

813
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 3: that game. So I agree even with Eastern Michigan, you

814
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: got to hold your nose with that quarterback situation. Right. Yeah,

815
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 3: Well that's it for us. For Mike I and Lla

816
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 3: on Mike Calabery's this has been the Big Bets on

817
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 3: Campus podcast brought to you by Bett MGM and our

818
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 3: group of five Deep dive. A reminder to our audience

819
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 3: that later in the week you can check in with

820
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 3: Colin and Stuck as they go through their entire FBS card,

821
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 3: and then on Saturday BBOC Live with Colin Stuckey Brett McMurphy,

822
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 3: I'll have a featured segment as well for my best

823
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 3: G five pick up the week. We'll get into weather reports,

824
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: last minute injuries, you know if there's any quarterback controversies

825
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 3: to check in on, as well as Steam reports, and

826
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,760
Speaker 3: you know where the money is headed right before kickoff.

827
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 3: It's always really useful in that ten thirty eleven o'clock

828
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: window to get the last bits of information before you

829
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: put together your full Saturday card. All right, guys, that's

830
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 3: it for us, Thank you so much for listening. A

831
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 3: reminder you can really help us out by commenting in

832
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,280
Speaker 3: both the YouTube channel as well as your podcast feeds.

833
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 3: Any five star reviews are appreciated. Happy to throw out

834
00:37:57,560 --> 00:37:59,959
Speaker 3: ten dollars parlay card for the top one that mentioned

835
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 3: the G five boys moving forward. Thanks again, have a

836
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 3: great weekend.

837
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

838
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

839
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,520
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840
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