Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Crows Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.
Speaker 1: It is entering week thirteen of the NFL season, which
Speaker 1: is crazy. We are here to take an early look
Speaker 1: at the week thirteen NFL lines. Here to do that
Speaker 1: with me is the co host I will call you
Speaker 1: Bogman of our college football podcast. Here. It is Scott
Speaker 1: Bogman again, you know him from the College Football podcast.
Speaker 1: Is also co host of the Great in This League podcast.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at Bogman Sports. Bogman.
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining me today. How you doing, Thank
Speaker 1: you for having me.
Speaker 2: I'm doing good.
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, I'm a Longhorns fan and there
Speaker 3: four and seven nine you are, Yeah, yeah exactly.
Speaker 2: That's like the hot tub time machine. What's that about? Yeah?
Speaker 3: The and then Steelers fan. You know, my dad's I'm
Speaker 3: from Texas. My dad's will say, by side of the
Speaker 3: family's from Pittsburgh and they were miserable. So you know,
Speaker 3: but it's okay because the NFL is still playing and
Speaker 3: is still like watching football.
Speaker 1: So that's all I can do. As a Jets fan,
Speaker 1: I can say that you know you can still watch
Speaker 1: the NFL even when everything is going wrong. By the way,
Speaker 1: the joke about Bagman is I hope you're watching this
Speaker 1: on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com Slash Betting Pros, which,
Speaker 1: by the way, you can win a free Saquon Barkley
Speaker 1: helmet by subscribing and then going to Betting Pros like
Speaker 1: Complash helmet. That's all you need to do, just subscribe.
Speaker 1: And I was joking because Bagman is decked out head
Speaker 1: to take out, that's right. And Longhorns gear right now,
Speaker 1: which I'm decked out. You had to tell in like
Speaker 1: fantas pros and betting pros gear. So that's how I roll.
Speaker 1: But whatever doesn't matter all right. Early, look at the
Speaker 1: week thirteen NFL lines. This is at halftime. Actually we
Speaker 1: were recording this of the Monday night game between Seattle
Speaker 1: and Washington, so we'll obviously have to do a little
Speaker 1: bit of guesswork here when it comes to those teams
Speaker 1: next week. First, let me remind you about the latest
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Speaker 1: d C, Arizona, and Wyoming. All right, bogwin Thursday night game,
Speaker 1: we have the Cowboys visiting the Saints. The spread right
Speaker 1: now is the Cowboys laying five. That's the consensus, but
Speaker 1: there is four and a half. There are five and
Speaker 1: a half's out there, but right now it's five and
Speaker 1: the total is forty seven and a half. Any thoughts
Speaker 1: on this one?
Speaker 3: I mean, my instant thought is Dallas in the under
Speaker 3: because what we saw offensively from New Orleans on Thanksgiving
Speaker 3: was not great. And Taysom Hill is getting first team
Speaker 3: reps now, so are they going to go to Taysom Hill?
Speaker 2: Is that gonna work? Are we getting Comarica be worse?
Speaker 1: Man, it can't be worse.
Speaker 2: It can't be worse. Yeah? Are we getting Kamara back?
Speaker 3: Are we getting Ingram back or is it gonna be
Speaker 3: Tony Jones again, who I thought was going to have
Speaker 3: a pretty decent game and was horrific. So it looked
Speaker 3: like David Johnson out there. You know, maybe the Cowboys
Speaker 3: are going to be down Zeke, but Paullard is a
Speaker 3: great backup. That offense is good, the defense can play
Speaker 3: a little bit. Obviously, got a little job done Thanksgiving,
Speaker 3: so they're going to come in a little bit hot
Speaker 3: in this game too. So I like the Cowboys going
Speaker 3: away even in New Orleans.
Speaker 1: So it's it's obviously Monday, so we don't have everything.
Speaker 1: Here's what I can say. What we heard today. Zeke
Speaker 1: apparently practiced in full, which was surprising given that we
Speaker 1: heard that he was going to be in danger of
Speaker 1: missing this game. Obviously, the Cowboys are going to be
Speaker 1: without Mike McCarthy because he tested positive for COVID. We
Speaker 1: Expectedee Lamb to be able to come back, of course,
Speaker 1: and Maari Cooper should be back, and as you mentioned,
Speaker 1: it should be Taysom Hill. Mark Ingram practiced in full.
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara returned to practice but was limited. So we
Speaker 1: don't know what is happening right now with this game
Speaker 1: whatsoever I get. I'm, you know, for a Thursday night game.
Speaker 1: I guess we'll end at you know, at five, around
Speaker 1: where it is right now. But I agree with you
Speaker 1: on the under like, that's what it strikes me. Especially
Speaker 1: with them going to Taysom Hill, there's gonna be a
Speaker 1: lot more running, a lot more bleeding the clock. I
Speaker 1: don't think Dallas needs to go crazy. You know. The
Speaker 1: Saints defense, despite what we saw from Buffalo's generally pretty strong.
Speaker 1: So I'm in agreement with you on that one. Let's
Speaker 1: go now into our Sunday games. Let's start with the
Speaker 1: wopping Giants visiting the Dolphins. The Dolphins are laying three.
Speaker 1: The total here is forty one and a half, so
Speaker 1: pretty low. Obviously, the Giants coming off the big win
Speaker 1: against Philadelphia. Not sure if it was the Eagles offense
Speaker 1: or the Giants defense, but obviously the the Eagles were
Speaker 1: held pretty much in check. The Dolphins meanwhile, riding high.
Speaker 1: They're up to five and seven. They're in the playoff
Speaker 1: chase somehow with this. Their defense is playing well. Two
Speaker 1: is playing well. Jayl'wadell's playing well. So what do you
Speaker 1: think here with the Dolphins laying a field goal at home.
Speaker 3: I gotta tell you, Dan, I disrespected the Dolphins last week.
Speaker 2: I said, if you.
Speaker 3: Blitz Cam like you blitz Lamar, he's gonna get you apart.
Speaker 3: He's a former MVP. He's gonna throw into the blitz,
Speaker 3: not gonna be able to take him down. Good Lord
Speaker 3: was wrong. He looked god awful. And the Dolphins defense
Speaker 3: looks great. And it seems like ever since they've started
Speaker 3: Javon Holland every single playback there and something that Joe
Speaker 3: and I have talked about on the IDP Show a
Speaker 3: little bit that you know, this team has gotten exponentially better.
Speaker 3: And Holland was a big part of the win against
Speaker 3: Cam Newton and the Panthers. He was the biggest part
Speaker 3: of the win against the Ravens. And this team blitzes
Speaker 3: more than anybody. Danny Dimes not great against the blitz.
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with Miami to carve up the
Speaker 3: Giants at home.
Speaker 1: It's gotta be right, I mean, And admittedly I thought
Speaker 1: the Eagles were going to be able to cover whether
Speaker 1: it was three or three and a half. So maybe
Speaker 1: I disrespected, right, I disrespected the Giants perhaps too much,
Speaker 1: or maybe I gave too much credit to the Eagles there.
Speaker 3: I think that's more of what it was because I
Speaker 3: picked the Eagles too, and and you know, our boy
Speaker 3: Bubba and I kind of said that, you know, we said, hey,
Speaker 3: look we're both picking the Eagles, so everybody gohe go
Speaker 3: out and get the Giants, right, So, and that's exactly
Speaker 3: how it worked out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, though I think the Dolphins all are
Speaker 1: you know, relatively legitimate with how well you're benching the
Speaker 1: defense playing. And again, you know Matt Parol, who owes
Speaker 1: to Daily Juice podcast, we do a last room. He
Speaker 1: makes fun of me because he calls me a huge
Speaker 1: to a defender I don't love too. It was just
Speaker 1: we were comparing it to what it looked like with
Speaker 1: Chakobe Brissett, and I said, Tua makes the offense at
Speaker 1: least a little more competent. Yes, he makes some horrible
Speaker 1: decisions and he makes some you know, bad interceptions, but overall,
Speaker 1: the offense certainly looks more competent with him back there. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. At a field goal, certainly, I
Speaker 1: like it there, so I would go ahead and take
Speaker 1: it now because I don't see it going under afield
Speaker 1: I'd be surprised if there was heavy action on the Giants.
Speaker 1: If anything, I could see it moving up, so I
Speaker 1: would go ahead and go there. We just talked about
Speaker 1: the Eagles. They are visiting the New York Jets right now.
Speaker 1: They're laying six and a half points. The totals forty five.
Speaker 1: We do have obviously some question marks here both quarterbacks. Really,
Speaker 1: you know, Jalen Hurts is dealing with a quote sore ankle.
Speaker 1: I mean, he ran for seventy seven yards against the Giants.
Speaker 1: I don't know how sword could be necessarily, but you've
Speaker 1: got that. You've got some questions at running back for
Speaker 1: the Eagles, given that we don't know if Jordan Howard's
Speaker 1: going to come back. Miles Sanders suffered an ankle injury
Speaker 1: in that game, so he was kind of not really
Speaker 1: it was mostly Boston Scott for the Jets. They do
Speaker 1: beat the Texans, but you do have you know, Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson sort of, you know, limping around a little bit.
Speaker 1: Doesn't look like he's one hundred percent here. Maybe Corey
Speaker 1: Davis doesn't play, So some question marks abound. But under
Speaker 1: a touchdown here, six and a half of the Eagles
Speaker 1: visiting the Jets.
Speaker 2: I hate this game, doan.
Speaker 3: I would take the Eagles just because I don't think
Speaker 3: the Jets are a very good team and I think
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson actually makes them worse. I understand that you
Speaker 3: need to start him to get him experience if he's
Speaker 3: healthy enough to do it. I understand that way more
Speaker 3: than starting Joe Flacco. Well, I don't know what the
Speaker 3: hell everything and there. Even though Flacco didn't look bad.
Speaker 1: But doesn't make it, didn't he never does really what
Speaker 1: he's with the Jets go on.
Speaker 3: But he's but he's not your answer. So you know, start,
Speaker 3: try Mike White again. Let him go out there. You know,
Speaker 3: That's what I would have done, but you know, I'm not.
Speaker 1: Well, they both, to be fair, they were both on
Speaker 1: the COVID list, and so maybe the Jets even knew that,
Speaker 1: oh yeah at the time, but they named him the
Speaker 1: starter before that anyway, right right, yeah.
Speaker 3: That was my my whole thing, like, why has Joe
Speaker 3: Flacco started a game for the Jets?
Speaker 1: Oh that is one hundred percent truy, Yes, yes.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just go with your youth because you're not playing
Speaker 3: for this season anyway.
Speaker 2: But I don't Philly is such a mess.
Speaker 3: They don't like Jalen Hurts, which is weird because they
Speaker 3: drafted him. I know this coaching staff didn't. But you know,
Speaker 3: if you don't like him, why are you even giving
Speaker 3: him a shot?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 3: Maybe to drive up his trade value for next season
Speaker 3: or something.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I just think the Jets are a bad team. So
Speaker 3: I'll take the Eagles and lay the points.
Speaker 2: On the road.
Speaker 1: Well, it did look like, you know, Hurts until this
Speaker 1: game had been playing very well, and I realized it was,
Speaker 1: you know, a very run heavy offense and everything like that.
Speaker 1: But he was making his throst count. But you know,
Speaker 1: the way I looked at it, bagman is his young quarterback,
Speaker 1: Like he's bound to have games like this, right, and again,
Speaker 1: they should have won that game had Jalen Rager been
Speaker 1: able to hold on to any of the touchdown well.
Speaker 3: And Smith was wide open on those last two plays too,
Speaker 3: so just throw him the ball.
Speaker 1: He's pretty good.
Speaker 2: He won a Heisman Trophy, so you know, yeah.
Speaker 1: So bizarre I would I would go under a touchdown
Speaker 1: with the Eagles here. Again, you know the fact that
Speaker 1: the Jets beat a crappy Texans team really obviously shouldn't
Speaker 1: mean much. They did not look good in the game,
Speaker 1: so I would go with Eagles, But I admit that
Speaker 1: I'm not running out to bet the Eals laying six
Speaker 1: and a half points at this game, but if I
Speaker 1: had to go one way, I would go there. Other
Speaker 1: than that, it's pretty much a stay away from me.
Speaker 1: How about the Cardinals here visiting the Bears. The Cardinals
Speaker 1: are off of bye. They should get Kyler Murray back.
Speaker 1: They hopefully will get DeAndre Hopkins back. Although Cliff Kingsbury
Speaker 1: was noncommittal on both, seemed to suggest optimism with it.
Speaker 1: I expect Andy Dalton to continue to start here for
Speaker 1: the Bears. I don't know if Justin Field is gonna
Speaker 1: be back. I don't know if Alon Robinson's going to
Speaker 1: be back. They obviously have a little bit of an extra,
Speaker 1: you know, layoff here because of the Thanksgiving game. So
Speaker 1: in this game they're laying against seven and a half
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and you've got the total at forty five
Speaker 1: and a half. Any feelings here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Cardinals big.
Speaker 3: I think the Cardinals are a really really good team
Speaker 3: this year and the Bears are really really bad.
Speaker 2: I think that's.
Speaker 3: Simply what it comes down to I think I would
Speaker 3: lay the seven if Colt McCoy starts this game with
Speaker 3: two weeks of rest, you know, with the weapons that
Speaker 3: the Cardinals have against the weapons that the Bears have,
Speaker 3: and the Bears are a team that is seemingly packing
Speaker 3: it in. Yes, they barely beat They barely barely beat
Speaker 3: Detroit on Thanksgiving. That should have been a loss for
Speaker 3: them most likely. But the Cardinals, I mean, I don't
Speaker 3: believe any of these Kingsbury to.
Speaker 2: OEU like Kingsbury.
Speaker 3: Kingsbury has He's in the NFL and he has the
Speaker 3: best ou quarterback of the last ten years already, So
Speaker 3: why would he want to, you know, take a step down.
Speaker 3: So I guess maybe for job security and that type
Speaker 3: of stuff because the NFL, you know, not for long.
Speaker 2: It's what that stands for.
Speaker 3: But I'll take I'll take the Cardinals their defense too
Speaker 3: against Andy Dalton. I think just on that alone, I'm
Speaker 3: not really worried about what the offense is or how Hopkins,
Speaker 3: how healthy Hopkins or Murray are, because I think they
Speaker 3: beat the breaks off the Bears without Murray or Hopkins.
Speaker 2: So I'll lay the points. Take the cards here.
Speaker 1: So you did say seven, just to be clear, it's
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Doesn't matter to you though, right?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 1: Like what?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 1: So okay, very good. How about the Vikings visiting the Lions.
Speaker 1: The Vikings now are laying seven and the total is
Speaker 1: forty six and a half. The one thing we if
Speaker 1: we know something for sure, it's that the starting running
Speaker 1: backs for both teams are not going to play in
Speaker 1: this game. Dalvin Cook can have missed a few games
Speaker 1: here with the shoulder. DeAndre Swift almost certainly out here
Speaker 1: with the shoulder injury. So it's the backups that Shamal Williams,
Speaker 1: it's Alexander Madison. What do you think here? Divisional game?
Speaker 1: Obviously laying seven? But in fact, hold on, hold on,
Speaker 1: hold on, Bagwin. I think you've been on the show
Speaker 1: one time before, I think, and I think it was
Speaker 1: the Vikings, and I don't know if it was ten
Speaker 1: against the Lions or if it was seven, but I
Speaker 1: know you were all over the Vikings in that game,
Speaker 1: if memory serves, Is that right? Does that sound right?
Speaker 3: I mean that does sound like me? So okay, but
Speaker 3: but look the Lions. Uh, you know, the Lions play hard,
Speaker 3: so it's hard to pick against them. But it seems
Speaker 3: like every week it's one more piece of that team
Speaker 3: goes down, you know. And they haven't won a game,
Speaker 3: but they're pretty good against the spread. So and they're
Speaker 3: at home here and they had extra rest. So I'll
Speaker 3: say this, I ain't gonna be betting this game. I'll
Speaker 3: just say that just straight out. I will not be
Speaker 3: laying my money on this game at all. I'll take
Speaker 3: the Lions against the spread. Give me the Lions at
Speaker 3: home and the points against the Vikings. I think the
Speaker 3: Vikings are an exponentially better team, but for whatever reason,
Speaker 3: they you know, they're five and six for a reason.
Speaker 2: Two.
Speaker 3: You know, the Lions are zero to ten, but they've
Speaker 3: been in the last three games that they've played. I
Speaker 3: think I don't think they're gonna win this game, but
Speaker 3: I think they can not lose by more than seven,
Speaker 3: So let's get them. I think this is like a
Speaker 3: four or five point game.
Speaker 2: God.
Speaker 3: I the Vikings defense just doesn't do anything for me
Speaker 3: right now. The secondary is not great and the line,
Speaker 3: I mean, losing Hunter, losing Griffin, they're going to get
Speaker 3: run on. So Jamal Williams is healthy. I think they're
Speaker 3: going to get run on a little bit so I
Speaker 3: think this is a you know, under and take the
Speaker 3: home team.
Speaker 1: Interesting, okay, because I you know, for me, I thought,
Speaker 1: I do think that the lines are going to be
Speaker 1: able to put up some points here, and I realize
Speaker 1: I'll probably be able to run it, but I think
Speaker 1: they will be able to pass as well. So I
Speaker 1: kind of lean the over interesting because I do think
Speaker 1: that the Vikings are going to be able to put
Speaker 1: up points here. The Vikings are weird, man. They come
Speaker 1: out and half the time you're like, this team could
Speaker 1: put up forty five points if they wanted to right now.
Speaker 3: Right they got Kirks Kirk it is Kirk and they're
Speaker 3: putting up points. You get bad Kirk and they're in
Speaker 3: the game with whoever they're playing.
Speaker 1: But it's also something that like good Kirk isn't like
Speaker 1: I got good Kirk this game. It's like I got
Speaker 1: good Kirk on this drive. I got bad Kirk on
Speaker 1: the next time drive. Yeah, that's the problem that you
Speaker 1: can never really rely. That's why I can't take the
Speaker 1: Vikings at this point, because I just don't know who's
Speaker 1: going to try. I mean, the Vikings obviously are motivated.
Speaker 1: They're five and six. That is in the thick. Now,
Speaker 1: you know you got seven playoff teams, that's in the thick.
Speaker 1: They this win, you assume they'll come out. But yeah,
Speaker 1: the Lions just play hard wherever they are, Like, I
Speaker 1: root for them to get a win. So I actually
Speaker 1: do think there's going to be scoring in this game.
Speaker 1: So I actually kind of lean a little bit towards
Speaker 1: the overend this one. Not crazy, though, you lean a
Speaker 1: little bit towards the under How about the Colts visiting
Speaker 1: the Texans. Tough loss here for the Colts. They are
Speaker 1: laying eight and a half, the totals forty six. I
Speaker 1: imagine you're gonna see quite a few Jonathan Taylor carries
Speaker 1: in this game, given all the talk here about how
Speaker 1: Frank Rake coach that game. The Texans obviously coming off
Speaker 1: a bad loss to the Jets. Torod Taylor will start
Speaker 1: in this game, according to coach. So what do you
Speaker 1: think here? Bagwin? Eight and a half is a big number,
Speaker 1: but you think the Colts can cover it?
Speaker 2: I do not care.
Speaker 3: I think the Colts are the second best team in
Speaker 3: the AFC right now. They went toe to toe with
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay, and yes they lost, and they were at home,
Speaker 3: but Tampa Bay is the best team in the NFL,
Speaker 3: I think, so at least the most complete team. So
Speaker 3: I'll take the Colts. I'll lay the points. I think
Speaker 3: this is a stomping. You know, the Texans are uninspired
Speaker 3: right now. They've got nothing. They've released their best running back,
Speaker 3: you know, releasing Philip Lindsay. I think he was the
Speaker 3: best RB on that roster left, So I don't know
Speaker 3: what the hell they're doing right now. In terms of
Speaker 3: fantasy there's just no one to start on this team either,
Speaker 3: Like even Brandon Cooks is getting less targets, which brought
Speaker 3: out there. So I got to take the Colts and
Speaker 3: I'll lay the points and I'll take the under two.
Speaker 1: I will. I will also go with the Colts. The cult.
Speaker 1: The issue with the Cults that they have this incredible
Speaker 1: ability just to not put away games like that, like
Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous. How they they just can't finish skims. There
Speaker 1: are times you watch them and they're winning a game
Speaker 1: by you know, two touchdowns, and then they just take
Speaker 1: their foot off the gas, which I would worry about
Speaker 1: here if the Texans weren't so terrible. And I think
Speaker 1: that they can do that, and you know, not put
Speaker 1: their foot on the throat and still in the end
Speaker 1: cover this game, you know at eight and a half,
Speaker 1: So I like it there as well. How about the
Speaker 1: Bucks visiting the Falcons. They are laying eleven. The total
Speaker 1: is fifty and a half on the spread, so you've
Speaker 1: got obviously the Bucks. You know, they come back, they
Speaker 1: win this game. The running game looks great, Gronk looks great.
Speaker 1: They probably will get Antonio Brown back here, although there's
Speaker 1: obviously a little bit of a question mark for the Falcons.
Speaker 1: They get back Cordero Patterson. That certainly helps the way
Speaker 1: their you know, offense looks as a whole. Not a
Speaker 1: dominant performance against Jacksonville or anything like that. Kyle Pitts
Speaker 1: hasn't done anything in five weeks, so you know, who knows.
Speaker 1: But a divisional game, Falcons hanging on to the edge
Speaker 1: of the playoff race, eleven points, bot win. What do
Speaker 1: you think I'm laying it?
Speaker 3: This is not a week of great games, right, This
Speaker 3: is a betting week. So you got to pick a
Speaker 3: side and roll with it. That's what you have to
Speaker 3: do this week because there are a lot of lopsided
Speaker 3: games it looks like, and this is definitely the biggest
Speaker 3: one of them. I'm going to take Tampa Bay lay
Speaker 3: the points. And I know people are going to point
Speaker 3: out that look earlier in the year, Atlanta played Tampa
Speaker 3: Bay Hart and came back on them and put up
Speaker 3: some points, and I understand that, but they also that
Speaker 3: Calvin Ridley they had a healthier team. This the Bucks
Speaker 3: coming off that buy and putting up thirty eight on
Speaker 3: the Colts is just showing me that they're at their
Speaker 3: peak right now. So, especially if Antonio Brown comes back,
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna steamroll Atlanta.
Speaker 2: I'll take the Bucks.
Speaker 3: I'll also take the over because I think we will
Speaker 3: get a little bit of that back door right of
Speaker 3: Atlanta pushing in the second half because they're gonna scrap
Speaker 3: the run and just pass. And so I'll go with
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay, but I'll also go with the Over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you on both. Actually, Bogwin, I do
Speaker 1: think that this is a game that Tampa makes a
Speaker 1: little bit of a statement here, especially like we said,
Speaker 1: if Brown is back. But yeah, I mean Brady didn't
Speaker 1: even play that well. They still put up thirty eight points,
Speaker 1: you know, on a good defense, So it really was
Speaker 1: an impressive thing. I think the Bucks get rolling here
Speaker 1: as well, and I agree with you that I could
Speaker 1: see the Falcons basically putting up some garbage time points
Speaker 1: even if they can't eventually cover the spread enough to
Speaker 1: get to the over. So we're on the same side
Speaker 1: of that one. This one I am interested to watch here.
Speaker 1: It is the Chargers are visiting the Bengals. The Bengals
Speaker 1: here at home are lay The total is fifty and
Speaker 1: a half. Bogman. The game that I probably liked the
Speaker 1: most last week was the Steelers getting the four and
Speaker 1: a half from the Bengals, which was blown out of
Speaker 1: the water five minutes into that game. The Bengals are
Speaker 1: a team that I fade every single time, and they
Speaker 1: just make me look stupid for the most part, other
Speaker 1: than that game against the Browns, which I faded them correctly.
Speaker 1: The Chargers are a little Doctor Jekyl and mister Hyde.
Speaker 1: Don't know what you're going to get from them in
Speaker 1: any given week. How do you handicap this one again?
Speaker 1: The Bengals laying three at home in the total of
Speaker 1: fifty and a half.
Speaker 3: Why like what the Bengals have done since their bye
Speaker 3: week is really refocus on the run game. And give
Speaker 3: the ball to Joe Mixon, who you know. You have
Speaker 3: Jamar Chase, you have Teagans, you have Joe Burrow, c
Speaker 3: j Uzama is a great pass catcher, and Tyler Boyd
Speaker 3: would be in number one or number two on a
Speaker 3: lot of teams. So the offense is good, but it
Speaker 3: needs to run through Joe Mixon. Everything works through him.
Speaker 3: And we saw it against the Raiders, we saw it
Speaker 3: against the Steelers. How about we see him against the
Speaker 3: worst rush defense in the NFL in the Chargers. Justin
Speaker 3: Herbert isn't playing good ball right now. He's kind of
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's a ball or if he's
Speaker 3: been readjusted on or what has been happening with him,
Speaker 3: but he's been making some bad decisions. I'll take the
Speaker 3: Bengals and lay the three points at home in the
Speaker 3: jungle for them, and I'll take the over in this
Speaker 3: game because I think the Chargers aren't gonna put up points.
Speaker 3: The Bengals defense is the one thing. You know, they're
Speaker 3: very you know, like Kirk Cousins. Sometimes they play really well,
Speaker 3: sometimes they play really bad. But I like the over
Speaker 3: here and I will take the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I lean towards the Bengals as well.
Speaker 1: I think the big deal is with Herbert. I just
Speaker 1: feel like it's the offense that he's in at this point.
Speaker 1: I feel like last year's offense with Anthony Lynn was
Speaker 1: very cub friendly. This one's a little more complicated, and
Speaker 1: he's gonna have these days where he looks good and
Speaker 1: he's gonna have plenty of days where he looks bad.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I lean the Bengals right now. I don't
Speaker 1: have a great feeling about it again, just because I
Speaker 1: feel like the Bengals. I've constantly felt the Bengals are overrated.
Speaker 1: So for them to basically, you know, be a favorite
Speaker 1: against the decent Chargers team troubles me. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, if I have to go in a way,
Speaker 1: I am going that way. Let's go to the Rams
Speaker 1: laying twelve and a half, who at home against the
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars and the total forty eight. I feel like
Speaker 1: all the quote smart money will be like, well, you
Speaker 1: got to back the Jags. I mean, this is sort
Speaker 1: of what it is like it is every week, but
Speaker 1: I can never back the Jags essentially, So what do
Speaker 1: you think you're at twelve and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not taking the Jags, so they just the
Speaker 3: offense cannot put up points their last couple of games
Speaker 3: here fourteen against the Falcons, ten against the Niners, seventeen
Speaker 3: against the Colts, since nine against the Bills nine was
Speaker 3: the win. But they have to stop an offense to
Speaker 3: win a game here, and they're not stopping the Rams
Speaker 3: at all. So I would lay the points here. I
Speaker 3: hate this over, I ain't touching it, but I will
Speaker 3: take the Rams and lay the points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm definitely avoiding the total. I lean the Rams
Speaker 1: as well, just because again it's really difficult to see
Speaker 1: how they are going to stop this team, the Jaguars
Speaker 1: in the end. Even though the Jaguars defense has as
Speaker 1: a whole play better. They have played better of late,
Speaker 1: probably last like four or five weeks. But I mean
Speaker 1: even Atlanta, you know, they put up twenty one. They
Speaker 1: could have put up more if they needed to. And
Speaker 1: I do think again that the Rams they need to
Speaker 1: win now. They are sliding obviously, so they need to
Speaker 1: come out. They need to make a statement with both
Speaker 1: their offense and their defense, and I think they do here.
Speaker 1: There's a get right spot for them at home so
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Even with the big spread, I
Speaker 1: will lay it. How about the Washington football team visiting
Speaker 1: the Raiders. The Raiders currently are laying two and a
Speaker 1: half points. The total is forty nine. Again, we are
Speaker 1: recording this in the middle of Monday night football, so
Speaker 1: who knows what happens right now. Washington did just hope
Speaker 1: I'm not spoiling anything. They did just take the lead
Speaker 1: on a touchdown here, so you know two and a half.
Speaker 1: This might be very different when you look at it
Speaker 1: and you listen to this podcast. But as of right now,
Speaker 1: the Raiders at home two and a half total forty nine.
Speaker 3: Who is making this schedule, by the way, like they've
Speaker 3: been really good about the schedule. But then you get
Speaker 3: the Raiders who played on Thursday versus is Washington who
Speaker 3: played on Monday. Doesn't seem to fair to me. I'll
Speaker 3: take the Raiders because of that. I think Washington's gonna
Speaker 3: have less rest. I think, you know, the Raiders at home.
Speaker 3: Of course, they may be down Waller, but Foster Morrow
Speaker 3: is a pretty good replacement. I don't particularly care for
Speaker 3: either one of these defenses, but I think if you
Speaker 3: give Derek Carr a little bit of time to prep
Speaker 3: for this game. He can carve somebody up. So this
Speaker 3: Washington football team, I almost said it, defense has been
Speaker 3: playing much much better since their bye week, so they
Speaker 3: have been a little more what we expected in the
Speaker 3: beginning of the season versus what we actually got, which
Speaker 3: was the worst pass defense in the NFL, and you know,
Speaker 3: just bad matchups for them.
Speaker 2: But I like the Raiders here.
Speaker 3: I think their defense isn't great, but they can bow
Speaker 3: up every once in a while. A lot of replacement
Speaker 3: on that Washington offensive line, particularly at the center spot
Speaker 3: there mentioned today.
Speaker 2: I think they're down the third or fourth.
Speaker 3: Guy here, So I'll take I'll take the Raiders at
Speaker 3: home and lay the two and a half the total.
Speaker 3: I don't I'm not gonna have a good lean either way,
Speaker 3: but I would go under.
Speaker 1: Does it matter to you whether or not Darren Waller
Speaker 1: plays in this game because he is deemed weak to
Speaker 1: week with the strained it band or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: If he doesn't suit up here, I think that's what
Speaker 1: it is. That right? Did I make that up something?
Speaker 2: And it sounds like something for my car, so.
Speaker 1: I may have made it up entirely, but I did
Speaker 1: see he was weak too weak today, So I mean,
Speaker 1: but again, he may play this week. And again they
Speaker 1: did not think that it was particularly a bad injury
Speaker 1: or anything like that. Yeah, something with his knee, ye
Speaker 1: or something.
Speaker 3: I mean, it does matter. Obviously, Waller matters. But I'll
Speaker 3: say I like Foster Moro as a replacement. You know, yeah,
Speaker 3: he's a good receiving tight end, not the greatest blocker.
Speaker 3: But I also like what they've been doing on offense
Speaker 3: more going to Josh Jacobs and relying on him more.
Speaker 3: I don't know why they went away from that so
Speaker 3: much in the beginning of the season. Jacobs is a
Speaker 3: good back, and I know he's a little banged up
Speaker 3: and all that stuff, but if he was that banged up,
Speaker 3: then give him some weeks off.
Speaker 2: Don't give him the all ten times. Never understood that.
Speaker 3: So I like the Raiders in this game. I think
Speaker 3: they go to Jacobs more. You rely on Waller in
Speaker 3: the passing game less, and uh, you know, Washington gets
Speaker 3: way less rest than they do.
Speaker 1: So give me the Raiders and you did see again
Speaker 1: Deshaun Jackson get more involved here in this game, which
Speaker 1: they really need to do to be able to open
Speaker 1: up the field a little bit more, at least throw
Speaker 1: a couple his correct You gotta show you got It's
Speaker 1: a show me. We always say, you know, give me
Speaker 1: a right, give me, give me a show me. You
Speaker 1: know pitch in baseball, right, just yeah, show me change up,
Speaker 1: just so we know that you have this in your arsenal,
Speaker 1: so I can at least have it in the back
Speaker 1: of my mind. That's what they need to do. They
Speaker 1: did in this most recent game. And again coming off
Speaker 1: that big win there, let's go to the Ravens visiting
Speaker 1: your Steelers. The Ravens are laying three and a half.
Speaker 1: The total is forty four. I mean, bogwin, it's your team.
Speaker 1: I again, I thought that they would cover that spot.
Speaker 1: It's a Tomlin spot, the underdog. Nobody believes in us.
Speaker 1: We the Bengals embarrassed us in the first game. Let's
Speaker 1: show up here, and they were getting a little hell
Speaker 1: there on defense. TJ. Watt was placed on the COVID
Speaker 1: list today, so obviously that's going to be a big loss,
Speaker 1: assuming that he can't come back from that. The Ravens,
Speaker 1: you know Lamarthro's four intercepsions, but they still win the game.
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one?
Speaker 3: I think that the Ravens are going to destroy my
Speaker 3: Steelers this week. And I do not say that with
Speaker 3: any joy, and I hope I'm wrong. But the Steelers
Speaker 3: defense got blueprinted against Detroit in that overtime tie. They
Speaker 3: ran the ball and it was all because this wasn't
Speaker 3: their game plan going in. Jared Goff got hurt, and
Speaker 3: they said, we'll just run it all day, and they did,
Speaker 3: and they ran for over two hundred yards. And then
Speaker 3: the next week Steelers give up a ton of yards.
Speaker 3: And this weekend Cincinnati, they give up a ton of
Speaker 3: yards to Joe Mixon. So I expect Lamar and Freeman
Speaker 3: and Murray and you know, probably a pitcher two to
Speaker 3: Duverney and Marcus Brown and those guys. I expect them
Speaker 3: to run the ball down the Steelers throat, especially if TJ.
Speaker 2: Watt is not there.
Speaker 3: So you know, the Steelers defense has had a lot
Speaker 3: of injuries, but even Devin Bush is bad. He is
Speaker 3: not healthy from his knee injury. You know, Joe Shobert
Speaker 3: is okay, but he can't be in six places at once.
Speaker 3: You have one of the best playmaking free safeties. Ryan
Speaker 3: Clark talked about this today and he's basically a fifth
Speaker 3: linebacker because no one up front is making the tackles.
Speaker 3: So it's a mess in Pittsburgh on the defensive side
Speaker 3: right now, which we've known it's a mess on the
Speaker 3: offensive side the whole year. But you know, you're bad
Speaker 3: on both sides of the ball. It makes for a
Speaker 3: pretty bad team. So give me Baltimore and I will
Speaker 3: lay the three and a half and the under because
Speaker 3: the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Are I, you know, the total. I don't have a
Speaker 1: great sense of yet. I would lean the undervad you,
Speaker 1: but I don't see how you avoid the Ravens here, Like,
Speaker 1: I mean that the Steelers look absolutely terrible, Like just
Speaker 1: everything about them looks terrible. And you're right their defense,
Speaker 1: of course, but their offense also looks completely out of sync.
Speaker 1: And it's not like you have any alternative to go
Speaker 1: to because he can't go to Mason Rudoff or anything
Speaker 1: like that. But I mean, Ben looks it's.
Speaker 3: Just people want them to go to Mason Rudolph. I
Speaker 3: was like, did you watch him play the game? He
Speaker 3: is work like I'll take fifty Prothlisberger all so hey
Speaker 3: sold I and Rudolph.
Speaker 1: Yeah, because again we saw in the Chargers game at
Speaker 1: least like he's capable of sort of, you know, making
Speaker 1: things happen once in a while. I don't really think Rudolph is.
Speaker 1: But still at this point, you know, with as bad
Speaker 1: as the Ravens looked in that game, I still think
Speaker 1: they come out and I still think they kind of
Speaker 1: boat race the Steelers a little bit in this one.
Speaker 1: So I agree with you here. How about the forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers visiting the Seahawks. They are laying two and
Speaker 1: a half. The total is forty six and a half. Again,
Speaker 1: they're playing right now. I mean, you know, we're just
Speaker 1: at a halftime here, Bogman, but watching Russ does not
Speaker 1: look back. Okay, hopefully he does not look back at all.
Speaker 1: He looks terrible. They look terrible. So I imagine that
Speaker 1: it's not going to be two and a half by
Speaker 1: the time people listen to this. I could be yeah, yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Think you're right, dude.
Speaker 3: This uh, this Seahawks team, we know they're bout on defense.
Speaker 2: They have been all year.
Speaker 3: Even though Jamal Adams got his second pick of the year,
Speaker 3: you know, uh, and he is now past Vince will
Speaker 3: Form in career interceptions at four. By the way, so
Speaker 3: congratulations to Jamal Adams. But yeah, Russ doesn't look right,
Speaker 3: and ye know the defense is bad. It's kind of
Speaker 3: like what we were talking about with Pittsburgh, right, we
Speaker 3: know the defense is bad, your offense doesn't look right.
Speaker 3: Carson has done for the year. They haven't figured out
Speaker 3: this run game yet. You gotta take the Niners. They're
Speaker 3: on a heater. They did just lose their best player
Speaker 3: for a h two in Deebo, and that is very,
Speaker 3: very unfortunate because Deebo is the most fun player to
Speaker 3: watch in the NFL. Like you know, I loved him
Speaker 3: coming out of South Carolina as happy he went to
Speaker 3: the Niners. So the Welsh and I could both love him,
Speaker 3: right because he's a huge Niner fan. So, but I
Speaker 3: think Eli Mitchell and Jimmy g has been playing well.
Speaker 3: Iyaka is back in this game. They're gonna have to
Speaker 3: utilize kittlemore. Kittle has to play better, but I think
Speaker 3: they have enough juice on offense and defense. Like you said,
Speaker 3: I think this number is gonna be bigger in a day,
Speaker 3: so by the end of the week, it's gonna be
Speaker 3: pretty big. So I would get in on the Niners.
Speaker 1: Now, yeah, I agree, and you know without Deebo. It's
Speaker 1: weird with Deebo because he has been such a huge
Speaker 1: part of their offense over the last especially the whole year.
Speaker 1: But the last two games is two catches. That's so bizarre.
Speaker 1: He's just doing it all on the ground as a
Speaker 1: running back, right like NonStop, and he really does add
Speaker 1: a layer. Thing with Kittle is. I was joking about
Speaker 1: it with some guys here, just like it would be
Speaker 1: so much better for his you know, for people who
Speaker 1: play fantasy for his fantasy value, if he wasn't such
Speaker 1: an elite blocker that he's just I mean, you just
Speaker 1: watch him in any of this run game. But their
Speaker 1: run game is working. Garoppolo is playing well. Now that
Speaker 1: could end on a dime, you know, but they're just
Speaker 1: playing way too well right now. I think they're on
Speaker 1: a roll here. They sense that playoff Berth. I think
Speaker 1: they're going for it. I think they win pretty easily
Speaker 1: right now. The Seahawks. I mean, maybe they do win
Speaker 1: this game, Bogman, they're down right now, but you know,
Speaker 1: regardless they have I'm impressive.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Russell would have to show a lot in the
Speaker 3: last quarter and a half here or whatever. We have
Speaker 3: in this game for me to be convinced that he
Speaker 3: is back, because he had one huge play locket when
Speaker 3: he was absurdly open, just no one was around him.
Speaker 3: And you know, one one touchdown drive that's just not
Speaker 3: gonna get it done. Washington's defense been playing better, not
Speaker 3: that good though.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with you. Sunday Night football, Broncos
Speaker 1: are visiting the Chiefs. Chiefs are laying ten. The total
Speaker 1: is forty seven bogwin.
Speaker 3: What do you think, Well, I think I'm not touching
Speaker 3: it is what i'd say at this point in the week,
Speaker 3: because everything adds up.
Speaker 2: The Chiefs look good on.
Speaker 3: Offense, they look good on defense, but for whatever reason,
Speaker 3: you get them in this rivalry game in particular, and
Speaker 3: these teams play each other tough. When the Broncos are good,
Speaker 3: the Chiefs play them tough. When the Chiefs are good,
Speaker 3: the Broncos play them tough. So I won't mess with it.
Speaker 3: If I had to pick, I would take the Broncos
Speaker 3: and the ten going to arrowhead the over, I mean
Speaker 3: in a Kansas City game, I just still I'm gonna
Speaker 3: take the over, which.
Speaker 2: Doesn't hit a lot.
Speaker 1: Correct.
Speaker 2: You know, you feel like.
Speaker 3: An idiot if you don't take it, you're like, of course,
Speaker 3: Kansas City scored thirty five in the first half, what
Speaker 3: was I thinking by taking this under? So I'm more
Speaker 3: confident than that. But I'll take I'll take the Broncos
Speaker 3: and lay the points just because I've seen this game
Speaker 3: play out this way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the problem again with the Chiefs is well,
Speaker 1: I'm joking about the overs because yeah, you can take
Speaker 1: the under and then it you know, four seconds in,
Speaker 1: it can be over because of just how quickly they
Speaker 1: can score. But I agree that the spread just for
Speaker 1: a divisional game like this, for two teams that know
Speaker 1: each other well, with the Chiefs again still not being
Speaker 1: like back, like they're not fully sort of what they
Speaker 1: were at their apex or anything like that, even with
Speaker 1: Edwards a layer back ten just seems too much for
Speaker 1: me at this point for a Broncos team that you know,
Speaker 1: just kind of whooped on the Chargers a little bit,
Speaker 1: you know, and the divisional game, it strikes me as
Speaker 1: too much. I'm not running out to bet at Bogman
Speaker 1: right but if I had to right now, I would
Speaker 1: take the points here, the ten points and just sort of,
Speaker 1: you know, hope that they keep it close to this point.
Speaker 2: Are the Chiefs? Are the Chiefs the best team in
Speaker 2: the AFC?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Maybe I don't. I don't want to.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: Who else would it be? Bogwin, If you say the.
Speaker 3: I think it's them podcast, I think it's them, the
Speaker 3: Cults and the Bills right now, that's okay?
Speaker 1: Well, i'd pick between, so you wouldn't take the Patriots?
Speaker 1: Who leads us into our next game? The Patriots on
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football visiting the Bills. The total is forty four.
Speaker 1: The Bills are laying a field goal at home. Bogmin,
Speaker 1: talk me through it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, another game that I'm not running out to bet.
Speaker 3: I'll say that I'll take the Bills at home here,
Speaker 3: and I think we've seen a little bit better. But
Speaker 3: it seems like with the Bills they take two steps forward,
Speaker 3: one step back, two steps forward, one step back.
Speaker 2: Is this their step back game? Or is this the
Speaker 2: you know?
Speaker 3: All right, Look, we're tired of Mac Jones, so we're
Speaker 3: gonna just blitz the crap out of him and make
Speaker 3: him beat us. You know, we're gonna stop the run.
Speaker 3: We're gonna make Mac beat us. And if they beat us,
Speaker 3: then fine, I mean they just lost Trey White. That's
Speaker 3: huge for the Bills. You know, Trey White the best
Speaker 3: second in a good secondary, so that is a big
Speaker 3: piece that they lose. But the Patriots aren't beating people
Speaker 3: on offense or beating people on defensive skillect.
Speaker 2: And maybe they will. They'll stop Josh Allen.
Speaker 3: We saw the jag stop him, right, and I get it,
Speaker 3: But I think it's more about Josh Allen stopping Josh
Speaker 3: Allen and making bad decisions than it is about being
Speaker 3: schemed up because if he gets rolling, there's nobody that
Speaker 3: can stop him. It's just like Patrick Mahomes right, he
Speaker 3: is the guy that stops himself. So I think Buffalo
Speaker 3: wins this game at home. I don't like it, not
Speaker 3: going to touch it right now. If we get more
Speaker 3: news about stuff later in the week, maybe I'll make
Speaker 3: a a harder line decision. But right now, go to
Speaker 3: my head, I take Buffalo and I take the under,
Speaker 3: because both these defenses can play well.
Speaker 1: I would take the under for sure. That is the
Speaker 1: way I lean at forty four, and I lean the
Speaker 1: Bills for a few reasons. Number One, again, I do
Speaker 1: not think the Patriots are quite as good as they
Speaker 1: have shown. I mean, I think that they've had some
Speaker 1: soft opponents, and again, you face Tennessee, you can't say
Speaker 1: they're soft opponent by any means. But obviously they were
Speaker 1: playing without anybody on offense here week last week and
Speaker 1: just watching you know, Mac Jones, and I was listening
Speaker 1: to it. At one point I had to leave my
Speaker 1: house for I don't know, like twenty minutes or something,
Speaker 1: and in the middle of it, I'm listening to the
Speaker 1: game on the radio and they're talking about how Mac
Speaker 1: Jones went through a period where he looked really confused,
Speaker 1: like there was like a couple of drives in the
Speaker 1: middle of the game, I think early in the second
Speaker 1: half or something where he just basically looked like a
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback where he was overprocessing, he couldn't sort of
Speaker 1: do it. And I really do think like Jones has
Speaker 1: played really well when he has, but he's played well
Speaker 1: because the game has made so simple for the way
Speaker 1: sort of they've laid it out, because they're so successful
Speaker 1: running the ball, because the defense is playing so well.
Speaker 1: Let's see how that works against the Bills in Buffalo,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean. As it gets colder with
Speaker 1: a raucous crowd on Monday night football. I just don't
Speaker 1: see them going in there and winning that game for me.
Speaker 1: So if it's three, if it's less than three, certainly
Speaker 1: I would take And I think it ends at three.
Speaker 1: Boggs like, I don't. I don't see this moving. You know,
Speaker 1: it could move. Have a point, I guess, depending on
Speaker 1: which way the money comes in. But three feels right
Speaker 1: even the match team team right. Three. I take it
Speaker 1: at three. I think the Bills win here and again,
Speaker 1: so you know, if it's field goal or less, I
Speaker 1: would be willing to take it. But yeah, I hope.
Speaker 1: So again you most people know I live in New England.
Speaker 1: I married it to a Patriots family. My life has
Speaker 1: been relatively unbearable for the last like twenty years, so
Speaker 1: you know, let's hope for my own bristles like that.
Speaker 1: That's how it goes. Bogwin. I'm so glad you can
Speaker 1: fit me in. I know you have seventeen more podcasts
Speaker 1: to do tonight already. It's ten twenty here in the
Speaker 1: East Coast, so I'm glad I'll let you go to it.
Speaker 1: Just remind everybody where they can find you.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you can find all my work on my Twitter
Speaker 3: app Bogwin Sports. You go to in this league dot com,
Speaker 3: check out the ITL Patreon. Joe and I do the
Speaker 3: Betting Pros College Football Show every single week. We do
Speaker 3: the IDP Show for subscribers every single week as well.
Speaker 3: I write an article for Betting Pros every week as well,
Speaker 3: so please check those out. And yeah, I'm online star
Speaker 3: as well sports Grid. Like, like Danny said here, I've
Speaker 3: got eight million podcasts now NonStop.
Speaker 2: Do you like my voice? You can hear it all
Speaker 2: the time.
Speaker 1: I do. I do like your angelic voice. But I
Speaker 1: do appreciate you coming on again. I like talking to
Speaker 1: you anyway. Yeah, oh of course you do great work.
Speaker 1: And you know, let's hope there are some winners right now,
Speaker 1: because yeah, this is this is time for some betting
Speaker 1: this weekend in these football games for sure. So everybody,
Speaker 1: thank you for joining us again. The Bogman will be
Speaker 1: back with Joe on the College Football Betting Podcast, and
Speaker 1: I will back later this week giving our three best
Speaker 1: bets of Week thirteen of the NFL season. I'll talk
Speaker 1: to you again then