Speaker 1: Welcome back, everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show.
Speaker 2: I'm your host.
Speaker 1: Scott Bogman followed me on the Twitter at Bogman Sports.
Speaker 2: I am joined as.
Speaker 1: Always by the you know, the the Pride of Kansas
Speaker 1: at Thor k you on the Twitter machine. It is
Speaker 1: Thor and Eystrom. Your Jayhawks are rolling. Look, I hated
Speaker 1: it last year when they burned me. I went all
Speaker 1: the way out to Austin to see my Longhorns play.
Speaker 1: The Jayhawks upset him on a two point conversion at
Speaker 1: the end of the game when Texas climbed back into
Speaker 1: it after being down. But hey, they're making me money
Speaker 1: this year, so we like them. I think we're gonna
Speaker 1: ride that over again for Kansas this week. But Thor,
Speaker 1: you gotta be doing pretty good watching your Jayhawks year.
Speaker 1: How's how's Week four treating you so far?
Speaker 3: Any any weekend Jayhawk football wins, it's a good weekend.
Speaker 3: And of course, the better team won last year in Austin,
Speaker 3: and the better team certainly won yes or a couple
Speaker 3: of days ago when they played Houston, just like it
Speaker 3: did when they played West Virginia. So hoping Kansas can
Speaker 3: keep it rolling. Their three and oh just like Thomas
Speaker 3: the producer Syracuse Orange or three in all, and now
Speaker 3: Kansas gets Duke. So yeah, crossing the fingers, crossing the fingers.
Speaker 1: And my loser team is the only one ranked out
Speaker 1: of that bunch, and we're two and one. So you know,
Speaker 1: played Alabama Hart but obviously I couldn't get it done.
Speaker 1: But as always, we're gonna start with the Thursday and
Speaker 1: Friday games. We're gonna tell you where the cash is
Speaker 1: on some of these games. We got a decent amount
Speaker 1: of spreads and a couple over unders. Then we'll hit
Speaker 1: the top five big games of the week and then
Speaker 1: talk about thor's differences. So let's start out with these
Speaker 1: Thursday and Friday games. We have six, but only five
Speaker 1: are on the slate. In terms of betting, I believe
Speaker 1: Illinois plays like Chattanooga. Yeah, so there's no real line
Speaker 1: in that game. So start out with Coastal minus two
Speaker 1: at Georgia State the over and that one is sixty
Speaker 1: one and a half. We got WVU minus point and
Speaker 1: a half on the road at Virginia Tech. That one
Speaker 1: has kind of gone back and forth. Virginia at Syracuse
Speaker 1: Syracuse is minus eight and a half the overs fifty
Speaker 1: two and a half in that game. That one is
Speaker 1: on Friday, Nevada air Force. Another Friday matchup, air Force
Speaker 1: a twenty four point home favorite. I guess Nevada Nevada
Speaker 1: has looked terrible forty five is the over in that game?
Speaker 1: And Boise State fifteen and a half point road favorites
Speaker 1: on the road against UTEP forty five and a half?
Speaker 2: Is he over in that game?
Speaker 1: Or do you have any strong leans name of these
Speaker 1: Thursday Friday games? What are you looking at in this
Speaker 1: grouping here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, let's take them day by day on Thursday.
Speaker 3: It's interesting because sharpbetters they love two of this, so
Speaker 3: they love both these games one particular side. I agree
Speaker 3: with them on one of them, and I don't agree
Speaker 3: with them on the other one. The side where I
Speaker 3: agree with the sharp betters is Virginia Tech. I think
Speaker 3: that's the objectively right side. Virginia Tech Day. Some things
Speaker 3: they have not done very well this year. Other things
Speaker 3: they're doing better, And I think they might be a
Speaker 3: little bit better than people think. You know, people are
Speaker 3: having a hard time getting it out of their head.
Speaker 3: Them getting upset by old dominion in that first game. Yeah,
Speaker 3: And I think it's just they're not bad. Yeah. I
Speaker 3: mean they almost almost upset Virginia last week, you know,
Speaker 3: for instance. And I think All Dominion's gonna win this
Speaker 3: week handily too. But we'll get to that later on maybe.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, I've not been impressed with West
Speaker 3: Virginia on any of my viewings. I came into the
Speaker 3: season lower on West Virginia than other folks. The one
Speaker 3: thing that West Virginia has shown that they can do
Speaker 3: decently well on offense this year is generate explosive runs.
Speaker 3: But when the passing game isn't at least getting the
Speaker 3: short completions, that bogs down too. They have to be
Speaker 3: completing the passes to get teams away from from starting
Speaker 3: to stack the box against some that Donaldson kid just
Speaker 3: came out of nowhere. The problem has been West Virginia's
Speaker 3: passing offense has not been as good I think as
Speaker 3: some people had hoped. JT. Daniels, who has been run
Speaker 3: out of his last two starting jobs. He has not
Speaker 3: refound the five star pedigree that came out with, and
Speaker 3: they don't have a really good receiving core. There's been
Speaker 3: a lot of drops with West Virginia so far this year,
Speaker 3: so I question whether they can pass the ball effectively
Speaker 3: enough against West Virginia to open up the opportunities to
Speaker 3: get those chunk runs disincentivized Virginia Tech from putting people
Speaker 3: in the box, et cetera. Virginia Tech that what they're
Speaker 3: best at. It's their defense. They struggle a little bit
Speaker 3: on offense, of course, but if they can play the
Speaker 3: low scoring, grinded out games, I mean, that's what they
Speaker 3: want to do, and I think that they're going to
Speaker 3: be able to get that here. I also like the
Speaker 3: under probably, like you probably think that my adjusted total
Speaker 3: in the game is forty one and a half, it's
Speaker 3: fifty two and a half live. So to me, I'm
Speaker 3: seeing more of a low scoring game that Virginia Tech
Speaker 3: pulls out at the end of the game. My adjust
Speaker 3: side on that game is Virginia Tech minus three point eight.
Speaker 3: So I have the other team favorite. So I like
Speaker 3: Virginia Tech to pull you know, the small upset. I
Speaker 3: won't consider an upset, but I think Virginia Tech is
Speaker 3: gonna win the and the you know, like I was
Speaker 3: alluding to the sharps are on Virginia Tech and Mass
Speaker 3: In that game. The Sharps are also in mass on
Speaker 3: Georgia State. You know the game that kicks off. Oh,
Speaker 3: it looks like the exact same time. I hate when
Speaker 3: they do that on the Thursday nights. Give us give
Speaker 3: us a split.
Speaker 2: Look.
Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta be honest, store, My Steelers are
Speaker 1: playing tomorrow, so I won't. You know, I'll have it
Speaker 1: on the second screen. But I know, and my family knows,
Speaker 1: and my neighbors know that I'll be screaming at my
Speaker 1: television for Pittsburgh. But I'll take a look at it.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't like it when they do that.
Speaker 1: Either give us a late game or an early game,
Speaker 1: just separate them a little bit. They even did that
Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football, by the way, with those two
Speaker 1: games starting in the middle of each other.
Speaker 2: I don't like that either.
Speaker 3: Like I prefer that though you don't prefer yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: because then they're not ending at the same time. The
Speaker 3: progression is different.
Speaker 1: You can well, no, no, no, but but I would
Speaker 1: rather have one finish and then pick up the other one,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, kind of like they do
Speaker 1: NBA playoff games, like let them finished and then do
Speaker 1: the other one.
Speaker 3: Would you rather have it? Would you rather have the
Speaker 3: time stagger to start or at the exact same time?
Speaker 2: Oh, definitely Stagg.
Speaker 3: Who feels the same way apparently one for sure.
Speaker 2: But do you have a you have a lean in this? Yeah,
Speaker 2: in Georgia State.
Speaker 3: In that one, I would be lean. So so the
Speaker 3: first one is a bet for me. I am on
Speaker 3: Virginia attack. I I like Virginia attack. This one. I
Speaker 3: lean the other way, but from where the sharp money
Speaker 3: is going. But I'm not going to bet it because
Speaker 3: I you know, I respect the sharp money. They might
Speaker 3: be seeing something that I'm not seeing. But I like
Speaker 3: Coastal Carolina in this game. You know, you have a
Speaker 3: three and oh team against an O and three team,
Speaker 3: and yet the majority of the money is coming in
Speaker 3: on the oh and three team, even though the more
Speaker 3: tickets have been bought on on Coastal Carolina. But the
Speaker 3: Sharps were also on Georgia State last week when they
Speaker 3: they definitely didn't cover I'm trying to remember who they
Speaker 3: were playing, but the shar The Sharps seemed to believe
Speaker 3: very much Charlotte to st Yeah, so they were on them,
Speaker 3: and I think they might have even been on Georgia
Speaker 3: State the week before as well, and we had talked
Speaker 3: in our discard thing about how Chris Reynold's coming back
Speaker 3: change the equation for Charlotte. So maybe you don't blame
Speaker 3: the Sharps for not knowing he was going to be
Speaker 3: back by It seems like that's a team where the
Speaker 3: Sharps have been higher on them throughout the season so
Speaker 3: far and remain so now that sharp's very clearly, you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, not all of them, you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, however many there are, I'm sure
Speaker 3: it's not completely uniform, but by the numbers, that's where
Speaker 3: the money is coming in on on Georgia State. But again,
Speaker 3: Georgia State hasn't looked great this year. Definitely not as
Speaker 3: good as we thought they would be, you know, I mean,
Speaker 3: like I think some people were hoping that they could
Speaker 3: sort of emerge near the top of that sun belt.
Speaker 3: You know, we we had seen the growth of that
Speaker 3: program under Sean Elliott, and they were bringing so many
Speaker 3: guys back and stuff like that. But the quarterback hasn't
Speaker 3: looked good in the limited exposure that I've gotten to him.
Speaker 3: There's been some accuracy, a version there and when the
Speaker 3: passing game is not going, the running game is played down.
Speaker 3: They also haven't played as good on defense. It's the
Speaker 3: reason that they're on three. They also have injury concerns
Speaker 3: in this game. It's there's too many guys to list.
Speaker 3: But Georgia State has like five key contributors that are
Speaker 3: questionable right now, and I don't know if they're gonna
Speaker 3: play or not, or if they do, are they going
Speaker 3: to be compromised, et cetera. Coastal Carolina was the team
Speaker 3: that lost everybody over the offseason except for Grayson McCall.
Speaker 3: But you know, we see what they've done in the past.
Speaker 3: You were just sort of in the early season trying
Speaker 3: to get sort of a read on how good that
Speaker 3: team is. Now, we'll have a better idea coming out
Speaker 3: a Thursday night. But I like Coastal Carolina more heading
Speaker 3: in than Georgia's State. But you know, again, just because
Speaker 3: of what the market's telling me and my experience with this,
Speaker 3: I'm not going to bet that out of respect for
Speaker 3: some of these sharp players, but I would lean Coastal Carolina.
Speaker 1: All right, what do you like in the Friday games?
Speaker 1: Like we mentioned before, we've got Virginia at Syracuse, Nevada
Speaker 1: Air Force, Boise State at UTAP and look, if you
Speaker 1: don't have a good lean, we can skip them. But
Speaker 1: do you like anything for Friday Night?
Speaker 3: I got one bet on Friday Night and the other
Speaker 3: two I have what I would feel like are legitimate leans,
Speaker 3: even though I haven't met them yet. I like Syracuse
Speaker 3: a lot on you know, in the first one. That
Speaker 3: game kicks off at six pm Central, seven pm Eastern.
Speaker 3: And I'm not just saying that because Thomas is producing
Speaker 3: and he'll make my screen go black if I if
Speaker 3: I go the other way with Virginia. But I don't
Speaker 3: understand why this line is not already in the double digits.
Speaker 3: It seemed like, you know, it opened at Syracuse minus eight,
Speaker 3: and I was talking on the Sunday Show with Thomas,
Speaker 3: this thing's going to be double digits in a blink,
Speaker 3: and it actually was like it toggled up to like
Speaker 3: minus ten on Monday. But it's weird because there's been
Speaker 3: a little buyback since then. And I don't know who's
Speaker 3: betting on Virginia. I don't know what you could have
Speaker 3: seen of Virginia to this point to be confident in them.
Speaker 3: Virginia has very clearly taken numerous steps down since the
Speaker 3: end of last season. Lost the coaching staff, They lost
Speaker 3: their entire offensive line, a couple of them to graduation.
Speaker 3: The rest of them just up and left. You know,
Speaker 3: the center went to Michigan and etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So
Speaker 3: you had to you had to replace the coach, Jeff,
Speaker 3: You had to replace the entire offensive line. The defense
Speaker 3: already wasn't very good. You were just sort of hanging
Speaker 3: your hat on the idea that they had a star
Speaker 3: quarterback in Brennan Armstrong and then four NFL receivers. Well,
Speaker 3: the problem so far is the offensive line is so leaky.
Speaker 3: On the Virginia side, Armstrong can't even sit back there
Speaker 3: and survey for the receivers. He's getting pressure immediately. They're
Speaker 3: running running game, which wasn't good before, it's still not good.
Speaker 3: And so it's like this one dimensional offense who is
Speaker 3: being extremely handicapped by the offensive line that they're playing behind.
Speaker 3: It has taken, you know, sort of taking the wings
Speaker 3: off of the aerial attack. And then on the Syracuse side,
Speaker 3: you tell me how Virginia is going to defend this offense.
Speaker 3: I don't know how they defend either the running game
Speaker 3: of Schrader and Tucker. I think they're going to run
Speaker 3: all over them. I also don't know how Virginia is
Speaker 3: gonna defend the sideline of sideline passing game, which Syracuse
Speaker 3: did not. I mean, they had the dominant run offense before.
Speaker 3: Now they have the sideline to sideline passing game as well.
Speaker 3: I don't know how Virginia is going to defend any
Speaker 3: of it. My ad justed line on this game is
Speaker 3: Syracuse minus twelve point eight. I don't need to me personally.
Speaker 3: I don't even think that goes far enough. If I
Speaker 3: was to send this line, it would be more like
Speaker 3: Syracuse minus fourteen minus fourteen and a half. If you
Speaker 3: can get Syracuse in the single digits, absolutely by the ticket.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to some games with an enormous
Speaker 1: amount of cash on one side, and thora I wrote
Speaker 1: on the sheet.
Speaker 2: It's in the private chat there.
Speaker 1: I put the tickets on there as well, so you
Speaker 1: can see where all of these games are. We're going
Speaker 1: to start with UCF minus twenty versus Georgia Tech that's
Speaker 1: got ninety nine percent of the cash on it, which
Speaker 1: was just a crazy amount.
Speaker 2: Usually just don't see that.
Speaker 1: Uga minus forty five has considerable amount of cash on that.
Speaker 1: Utah at Arizona State. Of course, Arizona State just firing
Speaker 1: Herman Edwards has an enormous amount of cash. That one
Speaker 1: is actually much closer on the tickets. Georgia and Utah
Speaker 1: much closer on the tickets. Is a big discrepancy in
Speaker 1: UCF Utah minus or excuse me, Memphis minus eleven and
Speaker 1: a half versus North Texas has got a big chunk
Speaker 1: that's a little closer in the tickets than normal. Auburn
Speaker 1: minus seven against Missouri has a massive amount of cash.
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern minus ten versus Ball State as well in
Speaker 1: unlv at Utah State minus two and a half has
Speaker 1: a big amount of tickets.
Speaker 2: So when you look at.
Speaker 1: Those games, is there one or two that you either
Speaker 1: love you're definitely on the cash side, or that you
Speaker 1: just despise and you say, how can we be laying
Speaker 1: this many points? Because there's no underdogs in this that
Speaker 1: are getting the cash. It's all favorite. So a lot
Speaker 1: of people think that these teams are just going to
Speaker 1: absolutely dominate.
Speaker 3: There's a couple of these that I've already bet and
Speaker 3: then there's a couple that I have leans on that.
Speaker 3: Let me ask you first that the UCF Georgia Tech.
Speaker 3: So that's ninety nine percent of the money is on UCF,
Speaker 3: but only fifty two of the tickets. Is that what
Speaker 3: it is? Yes?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's uh, I mean that's what I saw yesterday.
Speaker 3: So yeah, the uh that one.
Speaker 2: Let me give you an updated number on that one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for it real and as you are, you know,
Speaker 3: I'll just sort of fill the audience in and we
Speaker 3: talked a little bit about this one on on the discord,
Speaker 3: uh that we do right before this where.
Speaker 2: Ninety six it hasn't moved a bunch.
Speaker 3: Wow. Yeah, the UCF, not only, of course, are they
Speaker 3: the objectively better team, and not only do you wonder
Speaker 3: about Georgia Tech's mindset and how their effort is going
Speaker 3: to be in this game because the Jeff Collins era
Speaker 3: we have reached just about midnight when he turns into
Speaker 3: a pumpkin. I don't know if it's gonna happen after
Speaker 3: this game, the game after that, we'll see. We've had
Speaker 3: one coach firing each of the last two Sundays. Are
Speaker 3: we're gonna get Jeff Collins On on Sunday, We'll have
Speaker 3: to see it's it's it's definitely in play. Uh Jeordia Tech.
Speaker 3: They're a team that doesn't do anything good. But the
Speaker 3: thing that they're objectively the worst at it's defending the run.
Speaker 3: That's what you see. It's by far what UCF does
Speaker 3: the best. Uh you know, I mean UCF has. The
Speaker 3: quarterback is very much John Rey's plumbley, very much in
Speaker 3: line with the quarterbacks that how do I put this?
Speaker 3: Gusmells On fetishizes he's like sort of in the same
Speaker 3: bucket as like a Nick Marshall, where it's like, you know,
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, like they they you know, I
Speaker 3: burnet Cam Newton for the one year, but like with
Speaker 3: you know exactly it's it's it's a guy with who
Speaker 3: can scramble, who can also he has a little bit
Speaker 3: of arm strength, and his biggest weakness by far is accuracy.
Speaker 3: Gus has always been to work with those guys.
Speaker 2: That's just the easiest.
Speaker 1: I'll fix them, you know, Uh, they've got the arm,
Speaker 1: they've got the wheels.
Speaker 2: I'll fix the accuracy.
Speaker 1: That's like that's the arrogance of most coaches, is I
Speaker 1: can fix anybody, right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And and I think you know the way Gus
Speaker 3: sees it is when my running game is humming, and
Speaker 3: if I have a quarterback like that, it will be
Speaker 3: because his offensive lines are typically good, the running back
Speaker 3: talent is typically good, the running back room is typically deep.
Speaker 3: That that once that thing gets rolling downhill and they
Speaker 3: start playing the tempo and it's like six yard run,
Speaker 3: they sprint back to the line, snap it right away,
Speaker 3: five yard run and then you know, stuff like that.
Speaker 3: The defense gets on their heels and then that's when
Speaker 3: you open up the passing game. So you can sort
Speaker 3: of solder over some of the accuracy limitations just by
Speaker 3: getting the defense on their heels and all of a sudden,
Speaker 3: we do the quick pass off to the left, you know,
Speaker 3: et cetera. Gus we talked and you know in the
Speaker 3: previous show about how Gus had some very weird play
Speaker 3: calling tendencies against Louis that may have cost UCF that game,
Speaker 3: But that was a game where UCF was trailing by
Speaker 3: a possession or whatever for a large part of it.
Speaker 3: You wouldn't anticipate that they're going to be trailing against
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech. So the game script that you need to
Speaker 3: get the blowout would seem to be right there for
Speaker 3: you where because once UCF gets that double digital lead,
Speaker 3: that's when they become crazy scary because now it's the
Speaker 3: sprint back to the line and they're run and run
Speaker 3: and running, et cetera. They don't have to put John
Speaker 3: Reeve's plumb lee back in the pocket and ask him
Speaker 3: to survey, which is what they did way too much
Speaker 3: against Louisvillan. Again, in my opinion, that gave the game
Speaker 3: away through that they match up well here. But this
Speaker 3: is a very big number, especially when you're not crazy
Speaker 3: confident in UCF. But there's no chance I would bet
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech in that game. If I had to bet,
Speaker 3: I would definitely be leaning in UCF.
Speaker 1: Are there any other games out of this group that
Speaker 1: you have a good lean on between? Yeah, the Jive
Speaker 1: Utah Lane fourteen, Memphis eleven and a half, Auburn seven,
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern ten, and you don't beat two and a half.
Speaker 3: So that I have one on this group of games.
Speaker 3: I have one ticket purchased so far. Uh. That ticket
Speaker 3: was on Auburn minus six and a half. It's now
Speaker 3: ticked up to seven. I totally understand that. I think
Speaker 3: that the line, this line is going to be above
Speaker 3: seven by the time it kicks, who knows, maybe even
Speaker 3: by the time we get off, you know, get off
Speaker 3: the recording. It it opened low because nobody wants to
Speaker 3: bet on Brian Harrison, and everybody expects Brian Harson not
Speaker 3: to be their coach next year. I understand all that.
Speaker 3: I also, you know, we talked about this before, but
Speaker 3: Brian Harson's game plan in the last game against Penn
Speaker 3: State was one of the dumbest things that I seen
Speaker 3: all season. It was even dumber than Gus letting Plumby
Speaker 3: throw thirty three times in a close game against Louisville
Speaker 3: where Penn State's defense they really really struggle tackling. They're
Speaker 3: they're tackling conversion rates bottom ten in the country. And
Speaker 3: Auburn did not give the ball to the guy who
Speaker 3: is the hardest to tackle on their sideline, Tank Bigsby,
Speaker 3: touched the ball eleven times in that game. It just
Speaker 3: made absolute no sense. Yeah, the game was just getting
Speaker 3: away from Auburn, and Harson seemed to be panicking more
Speaker 3: and more as it did. This game. You know, we
Speaker 3: talk about like the game scripts and what that facilitates.
Speaker 3: You would not expect Missouri to be able to ambush
Speaker 3: Auburn in this spot. Missouri has bad quarterback play Number one.
Speaker 3: The receiving room is not as good as people wanted
Speaker 3: it to be. Yet, you know, they had signed Luther Burden,
Speaker 3: the five star receiver. I think people thought he'd come
Speaker 3: in right away and be like the college version of
Speaker 3: Randy Moss. He's not playing well so far. Like I mean,
Speaker 3: he's playing and he's getting some catches, but like you know,
Speaker 3: on a personal basis, it hasn't been the best. That
Speaker 3: the routes are clearly not totally polished yet, the ball
Speaker 3: scales need a little bit of work, et cetera. The
Speaker 3: rest of their receiving core is not that great. It's
Speaker 3: a bunch of cast sass from other schools or else
Speaker 3: guys that were stuck you know, on the depth chart
Speaker 3: like earlier in their careers, et cetera. And then the
Speaker 3: running game they I mean, that's what last year they
Speaker 3: funneled all the touches to Tyler Bade, both in the
Speaker 3: running game and also in the receiving game. Tyler Baty,
Speaker 3: of course, is now on the Baltimore Ravens that Missouri
Speaker 3: now has gone to this like they're rotating like three
Speaker 3: different guys in It's Nathaniel Pete and then like two
Speaker 3: other kids, two other lower profile kids that they didn't
Speaker 3: sign in the portal. I don't love that offense. I
Speaker 3: don't love their offensive line either, and I certainly don't
Speaker 3: like Missouri's defense. You would like to think that that
Speaker 3: Harson now going back to the Auburn side, that Harson
Speaker 3: is going to listen to all the criticisms over you
Speaker 3: know that he's been hearing for the last three or
Speaker 3: four days, not about him personally, but about game planning.
Speaker 3: Get the friggin' ball to Tank Bigsby. If Tank Bigsby
Speaker 3: has twenty or more touches in this game, I'm telling
Speaker 3: you Auburn is going to cover. I do. I do
Speaker 3: like Auburn for all those reasons. My line is also
Speaker 3: closer to Auburn minus ten. Auburn's defense is really good.
Speaker 3: That that hasn't changed there, and unlike Penn State, they're
Speaker 3: reliable tackling. Penn State might have more dudes, you know,
Speaker 3: in terms of athletes and stuff like that, but overall
Speaker 3: over the entire body of work. Auburn has been at
Speaker 3: least more reliable with their run fits and then converting
Speaker 3: the tackles. Missouri doesn't have the singular athletes that the
Speaker 3: Penn State offense had where, yeah, you know where they
Speaker 3: could start out running people once they got into space
Speaker 3: between Singleton and a couple of those receivers. Missouri doesn't
Speaker 3: have guys like that. So I like Auburn to control
Speaker 3: that game and to win by double digits in a
Speaker 3: get right game for Brian Harson that he badly needs.
Speaker 3: It's not just that the context of the short term.
Speaker 3: If you look at the rest of Auburn's schedule after
Speaker 3: this Missouri game, it is about as grizzly of a
Speaker 3: schedule as you're going to see, you know, for the
Speaker 3: last eight games or whatever it is. Brian Harson needs
Speaker 3: this game to keep his job. He I don't think
Speaker 3: he'll get fired if he loses it, but he's going
Speaker 3: to lose a whole bunch of those last eight games.
Speaker 3: So this is a must have and they know it.
Speaker 3: I do like Auburn in that one. The other ones
Speaker 3: for me are more leans or else thought experiments. I
Speaker 3: guess I would say I have thought about I almost
Speaker 3: don't even want to admit this one. This is one
Speaker 3: of the bets that stinks. So it's not just to
Speaker 3: hold your nose game. It stinks so much that I
Speaker 3: don't even want to admit publicly that I've been thinking
Speaker 3: about betting on this team, and I actually still might.
Speaker 3: It won't be in my column, but I actually might
Speaker 3: have a bet on this team live and again, of
Speaker 3: trepidacious to say it, but I'm absolutely considering betting on
Speaker 3: Arizona State against Utah. I can't believe I'm saying it,
Speaker 3: But where the line is going.
Speaker 2: These games go either way. After you fire a coach.
Speaker 1: You talked about the dead cat bounce and all of
Speaker 1: that before, these games go one of two ways where
Speaker 1: it's either they get slaughtered, you know, because their coach
Speaker 1: has gone and they're upset and they have not putting
Speaker 1: forth the effort, or they go out there and they
Speaker 1: play way better expected. Because this was a long time coming,
Speaker 1: and the Herm Edwards one was just so clear and
Speaker 1: obvious that this was going to happen as soon as
Speaker 1: they had an embarrassing loss happening against East Michigan.
Speaker 2: Goodbye her So yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well it was quite obvious to the twenty plus
Speaker 3: guys that left in the transfer portal from Arizona over
Speaker 3: the offseason, maybe not as clear to the guys that
Speaker 3: Herm ended up signing to replace them. I'm sure Herm was,
Speaker 3: you know, sort of selling like I'm gonna be here
Speaker 3: for your entire time. But yeah, I mean, you saw
Speaker 3: between the defections the coaches have and the roster where
Speaker 3: that thing was going, and then you know, they had
Speaker 3: so many different new players, which made it even harder
Speaker 3: for her at the beginning of the season. Doesn't excuse
Speaker 3: the EMU thing at all, and it turned out to
Speaker 3: be the h what would you call it, the anvil
Speaker 3: that broke herms back in this case where it didn't
Speaker 3: really seem like the guy that hired him, the Ray
Speaker 3: Edwards whatever or Ray Anderson right the ad whatever his
Speaker 3: name is, he didn't really care about the scandal so
Speaker 3: much as losing to EMU. You know, like he just
Speaker 3: let Herm survive that thing until they lost the EMU
Speaker 3: and then it looks like Anderson fired Herm Edwards when
Speaker 3: he was literally walking off the field.
Speaker 2: I think they said, I think they were in that meeting.
Speaker 1: They're like we're gonna have him tomorrow, and maybe.
Speaker 3: I would love to have the audio avoid he caught
Speaker 3: up to her and walking off the field. We got
Speaker 3: the video, we don't have the audio. It's possible that
Speaker 3: he was fired right then. If not, I think the
Speaker 3: AD already knew he was going to get fired. But
Speaker 3: as far as this game, going back to your point,
Speaker 3: if there's anyone out there that has against the spread
Speaker 3: data of the week after a coach gets fired in
Speaker 3: college football going back years and years, please reach out
Speaker 3: to me on Twitter. My handle is at thor Ku.
Speaker 3: My dms are open, Please send it to me. I
Speaker 3: was looking around mostly because I'm too lazy to go
Speaker 3: case by case beyond last year. I can tell you
Speaker 3: last year, I wasn't too lazy to accrue those numbers.
Speaker 3: Last year it was even it was like there was
Speaker 3: like twelve instances of this or ten it was something
Speaker 3: like that, but it was five hundred against the spread.
Speaker 3: It was like six and six against the spread for
Speaker 3: the team. Of course, Nebraska last week. Talking about the
Speaker 3: Sharps being wrong, they were wrong on Nebraska last week.
Speaker 3: All the Sharks were on Nebraska last weekend that game,
Speaker 3: they they were They had a ticket bonfire in the
Speaker 3: second court early in the second quarter of that game.
Speaker 3: It was over Nebraska. You didn't get the bounce up
Speaker 3: performance with Arizona State. We'll see if we get it.
Speaker 3: It's certainly possible, but I think that the real point,
Speaker 3: at least with recent history, until I can get some
Speaker 3: historical data if anyone else is a crew to my
Speaker 3: working theory on this is don't don't don't. Don't rotely
Speaker 3: go one way or the other of just assuming that
Speaker 3: the team that just fired its coach is going to
Speaker 3: continue to be awful, nor should you consider that they're
Speaker 3: going to play way up the next week. It remains.
Speaker 2: Like everything.
Speaker 3: Like everything, it all depends on the handicap in question.
Speaker 3: In this one, I am showing value on Arizona State objectively,
Speaker 3: even though I toggle them down in my power rankings.
Speaker 3: My line on this game is Utah minus nine point
Speaker 3: one and and now the the line was up to
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half at one point. Maybe it's down
Speaker 3: to fifteen and a half or fifteen right now, but
Speaker 3: over the two touchdowns, objectively, that is too many points
Speaker 3: to give. It seems like a reaction to Oklahoma smoking
Speaker 3: Nebraska last week, even though that doesn't have anything to
Speaker 3: do with this game or people wanting to be out
Speaker 3: on Arizona State. And look, nobody loves Utah more than me.
Speaker 3: Nobody was banging the drum more for Utah. Nobody liked
Speaker 3: Utah more In the opener against Florida's still passed that.
Speaker 3: I didn't get the cover in that one, But I
Speaker 3: do like Utah as a team. This doesn't have anything
Speaker 3: to do with Utah. This has to do with the
Speaker 3: line going way above what it should be just because
Speaker 3: of the circumstance of the week, when we know at
Speaker 3: least over the last year and a half with the data,
Speaker 3: it doesn't affect it one way or the other. I
Speaker 3: mean the right around five hundred. As far as the
Speaker 3: week after you fire or your coach, I would absolutely
Speaker 3: lean Arizona State. With where this line has gotten. They
Speaker 3: tacked like eight points onto that after Arizona State fired
Speaker 3: Herm Edwards. HERM Edwards is not worth eight points. It
Speaker 3: has gone above what it should be. But I haven't
Speaker 3: bet it yet. I need to get some you know,
Speaker 3: the you know some to plug my nose. But I
Speaker 3: absolutely might bet Arizona State hard. Lean on Arizona State.
Speaker 2: That's that's a take your medicine bet right there.
Speaker 1: Sure a couple of overs here thor before we get
Speaker 1: to the top five games, app State for James Madison
Speaker 1: over fifty nine has a huge liane, but the tickets
Speaker 1: are less than fifty percent on the over most tickets
Speaker 1: on the under, which is just crazy. Wku versus Florida
Speaker 1: International sixty five and a half is getting hammered with that.
Speaker 1: Over Miami versus Middle Tennessee over fifty two and a
Speaker 1: half is getting smashed on both sides, cash and tickets.
Speaker 1: And then Washington versus stand for Over sixty three and
Speaker 1: a half, hard on the cash, not so hard on
Speaker 1: the tickets. So you got any good lien on a
Speaker 1: total between these four games?
Speaker 3: Store, Yeah, these are none of these are the I
Speaker 3: do have two totals in my column. None of these
Speaker 3: are those. But it's interesting because the market is in
Speaker 3: line with where my system is pointing you. The Middle
Speaker 3: Tennessee Miami game, when I what is that live Scott
Speaker 3: that the total it was?
Speaker 2: I will double check, but it was and a half, yes.
Speaker 3: Okay, and that's that's what I had my sheet too.
Speaker 3: My adjusted total in that game is sixty three point
Speaker 3: five as well above what what you know what what
Speaker 3: they put out in Vegas. So I'm my system would
Speaker 3: definitely be pointing you at at the over middle. Tennessee
Speaker 3: can throw the ball around a bet. You know, they
Speaker 3: they went they they've understock still. They've always been about
Speaker 3: having like the the quick, small, darty guys on the
Speaker 3: outside and the short game. But they've gone even more towards,
Speaker 3: you know that way by by bringing in this air
Speaker 3: raid offensive coordinator. They can move the ball through the
Speaker 3: air a little bit. Not a great team, but they
Speaker 3: can move the ball through the air a little bit.
Speaker 3: And then Miami last week, you know, maybe this line
Speaker 3: there the total. Maybe it started out a little bit
Speaker 3: depressed because Miami scored in the single digits against Texas
Speaker 3: A and M.
Speaker 2: But Scott couldn't punch it in.
Speaker 1: Yeah about this last week We're driving and driving and
Speaker 1: could not This was the definition of bend but don't break,
Speaker 1: where most college defenses are bend and then break.
Speaker 2: You know, but we had a y and m executed
Speaker 2: it perfectly.
Speaker 3: Last week. We had a wild stat where Miami last
Speaker 3: week became the first team since at least the year
Speaker 3: two thousand, I don't know how far this calls back.
Speaker 3: To get twenty or more first downs without an offensive
Speaker 3: touchdown crazy unthinkable to move the ball as effectively as
Speaker 3: Miami did without without cashing one eventually in Miami's up
Speaker 3: don't downgrade Miami's offense because of what happened last week.
Speaker 3: A and M has a good defense and they're still
Speaker 3: moving the ball on Obviously, they had the struggles within
Speaker 3: the red zone. They'll have to figure that out against
Speaker 3: better defenses. But I still trust that offense to move
Speaker 3: the ball. They have a good offensive line. They have
Speaker 3: a first round NFL, first round NFL draft prospect at quarterback.
Speaker 3: They have a lot of guys on the ELTs. Even
Speaker 3: without Ristrepo, they still go three or four deep in
Speaker 3: guys that are dangerous, you know. In their receiving core,
Speaker 3: they have two tight ends that might play in the NFL,
Speaker 3: two different ones. And the running back room now has
Speaker 3: gotten quite good since they've gotten Henry Perish. You had
Speaker 3: him to Knight and and some of those other guys.
Speaker 3: Some of those other guys, you know, it's sort of
Speaker 3: you think of like Swiss army knife and having different utilities.
Speaker 3: Before that's all they had. Now you had Parish to
Speaker 3: that whose skill set is a little bit more fleshed out.
Speaker 3: You allow the guys behind him to do the situational
Speaker 3: stuff that they're good at. Remember last week when you
Speaker 3: were talking about A and M about how Auchain's game
Speaker 3: had played a little bit down with out Spiller. Could Spiller,
Speaker 3: could you know he could handle the load and do
Speaker 3: do that sort of stuff. Miami didn't have that guy before,
Speaker 3: but now they sort of do with Parish, a guy
Speaker 3: that can handle heavy usage. So I like that offense.
Speaker 3: I think Middle Tennessee's offense probably better than people think.
Speaker 3: And Middle Tennessee's defense ain't gonna put up any sort
Speaker 3: of a fight, So I, you know, I definitely like
Speaker 3: that one the over the Western Kentucky game two. My
Speaker 3: system loves that one.
Speaker 2: My sside think, yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, my system set that one at seventy four and
Speaker 3: a half. Florida Internationals defense is one of the three
Speaker 3: worst in the nation. Western Kentucky they can't wait to
Speaker 3: find a spot for Austin Reid to be able to
Speaker 3: have his get right game. They played pretty defent last week.
Speaker 3: The receivers were dominating Indiana's secondary As expected, Reid has
Speaker 3: gotten a little bit better each game. He was a
Speaker 3: kid who who they signed was that D two player
Speaker 3: of the year. Brought him in to replace Bailey Zappy.
Speaker 3: The first couple of games, the offense wasn't quite as
Speaker 3: explosive as we'd like, but again he was learning the
Speaker 3: system and it's gotten a little bit better, a little
Speaker 3: bit better, a little bit better. I think this is
Speaker 3: a game where they go absolutely ballistic. FIU does not
Speaker 3: have the bodies in the secondary to be able to
Speaker 3: match up with Western Kentucky across the formation and FIU
Speaker 3: on their side. Western Kentucky defense, of course, has been
Speaker 3: no great shakes this year. They you know, they gave
Speaker 3: up what twenty five points to an FCS team, and
Speaker 3: and last week against Indiana India, they did hold Indiana
Speaker 3: down to at the start of the game, but then
Speaker 3: the one drive they needed to stop them, they couldn't.
Speaker 3: Indiana drove the length of the field three minutes left
Speaker 3: and you scored that touchdown then got the two point conversion.
Speaker 3: I think FIU will be able to put up some
Speaker 3: points against Western Kentucky as well. I was leading the
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky side earlier in the week because Vegas put
Speaker 3: out a bad number. It was like Western Kentucky minus
Speaker 3: twenty six or twenty six and a half when it open.
Speaker 3: The market justifiably bunched Western Kentucky up to you know whatever.
Speaker 3: It is now like a thirty thirty one point favorite. Yeah, my,
Speaker 3: just a line on that is thirty two point four.
Speaker 3: But with the line movement the way that it has,
Speaker 3: I can't bet Western Kentucky anymore. I also can't I'm
Speaker 3: certainly not gonna betting on FIU. The play in that
Speaker 3: game for me would be the over for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it looks like you can get it at thirty
Speaker 1: one or thirty and a half now, So, like you said,
Speaker 1: that has expanded a bunch. Let's get into these top
Speaker 1: five games. Or we've got number five Clemson at number
Speaker 1: twenty one week Forest. Clemson is a seven point favorite
Speaker 1: in that game. Looks like you like Clemson in that
Speaker 1: one Florida number twenty on the road against number eleven Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Kind it season ten and a half point game. You're
Speaker 1: kind of right on the line in that one. Sixty
Speaker 1: two and a half is the over. Number ten Arkansas,
Speaker 1: number twenty three Texas A and M. Texas A and
Speaker 1: M is a home favorite by two and a half points,
Speaker 1: kind of right in line where you're at as well.
Speaker 2: Baylor number seventeen at Iowa State.
Speaker 1: Iowa State is a two and a half point favorite
Speaker 1: in that game, and number fifteen, Oregan on the road
Speaker 1: is a touchdown favorite by seven at Washington State. Fifty
Speaker 1: seven and a half is the line in that game.
Speaker 1: So any significant leans in these big five games that
Speaker 1: everyone's going to be watching the nationally televised ones here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I lean hard on Clemson if that number is
Speaker 3: at seven, you know, like you were sort of alluding to,
Speaker 3: my adjusted line in that game is closer to Clemson
Speaker 3: minus ten. I want to see. There's a couple of
Speaker 3: different things. First of all, is Brian Breese. I assume
Speaker 3: that he is going to play. He didn't play in
Speaker 3: the last game because tragedy his sister died with brain cancer.
Speaker 3: Certainly understand and it would also be understandable if he
Speaker 3: missed more games than the one. The game that they
Speaker 3: played before was against Louisiana Tech. They didn't necessarily need
Speaker 3: them to beat Louisiana Tech. This game far more pressing,
Speaker 3: especially against that slow mesh that that Wake Forest does.
Speaker 3: How do you defeat the slow mesh. It's blowing it
Speaker 3: up at the mesh point, right, It's it's getting that
Speaker 3: immediate pressure with your defensive line. Well, that's what Clemson
Speaker 3: does the best of They have the best front seven
Speaker 3: in college football. And I say that knowing how good
Speaker 3: you know. For instance, Georgia's front seven is et cetera.
Speaker 3: But Clemson has four different guys that are going to
Speaker 3: get drafted high starting along that defensive line. They have
Speaker 3: multiple rotational guys in the defensive line after that that
Speaker 3: are going to be drafted, perhaps even in the middle rounds.
Speaker 3: Then they might have the best lineback in college football
Speaker 3: in that Simpson kit. So they have all kinds of
Speaker 3: talent up front. They have disrupted that slow mesh in
Speaker 3: the past, and it totally screws up that the timing
Speaker 3: of that wake Forest offense. The reason that the wake
Speaker 3: for is the slow mesh that it discombinedbulates other defenses. Again,
Speaker 3: you take that away. If you can disrupt that, you
Speaker 3: have to hurry up the quarterback, hurry up the running back.
Speaker 3: They could drop the ball. They can make bad decisions
Speaker 3: from there. The routes of the receivers aren't able to
Speaker 3: fully flesh out and flow route. So we'll see about that.
Speaker 3: I do think Clemson matches up well. Sam Hartman has
Speaker 3: only been back for a couple of games since coming
Speaker 3: back from that illness. I just think the seven number
Speaker 3: is a little bit too low. But there's some of
Speaker 3: these unanswered questions that I have, and I can also
Speaker 3: say I know that Wake Forest is the sharp side
Speaker 3: so far predominantly, that's where the money of the sharps
Speaker 3: have been going towards that way. So because of all,
Speaker 3: you know, sort of my questions about it, I sort
Speaker 3: of talk myself out of betting on a lean so
Speaker 3: far on Clemson. But if I do bet that one,
Speaker 3: it'll be Clemson as long as that number stays at seven.
Speaker 3: I'm not interested if it toag goles up to seven
Speaker 3: and a half. If it goes to six and a half,
Speaker 3: I'm definitely buying a Clemson ticket for sure. So we'll
Speaker 3: we'll just see the way that that one goes. The
Speaker 3: Florida Tennessee one, I can't touch the side because first
Speaker 3: of all, I don't trust Florida. Second of all, Tennessee
Speaker 3: is beaten around two Patsy's and then the other game
Speaker 3: when they played a legitimate opponent. They probably should have lost.
Speaker 3: That they were down on Pittsburgh for most of the game,
Speaker 3: and then I had to come back to.
Speaker 2: The very end, and then you got hurt, right then, yeah.
Speaker 3: Exactly right. They Yeah, Tennessee injured Slovis and then Pittsburgh. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3: That you also have in this game of key contributors
Speaker 3: on both sides where we don't know if they're gonna play,
Speaker 3: and seeming like they might not from what I'm hearing.
Speaker 3: Cedric Tillman's the big one on the Tennessee side. Uh,
Speaker 3: And it seems like at least, well, my birdies are
Speaker 3: telling me, well, we'll see when it comes to Saturday.
Speaker 3: My birdies told me yesterday that Jordan Travis wasn't gonna play,
Speaker 3: and then you were. You kicked the walking boot and
Speaker 3: he was back out of practice today. I don't know
Speaker 3: if he's gonna play either. But like you know, it's
Speaker 3: the college football injury thing. It's a whole nother can
Speaker 3: of worms that we don't have the time to get into.
Speaker 3: But the fact that they don't have to report the
Speaker 3: injuries at all, I mean, not even accurately.
Speaker 1: The fact that you have to be the spymaster varies
Speaker 1: to figure it out.
Speaker 3: You do have to be various. Yeah, you gotta send
Speaker 3: your little Birdie's in. You gotta do the whole thing.
Speaker 3: But you know, with Tillman, we don't know what the
Speaker 3: status is yet, but it does seem like those around
Speaker 3: the team right now they lean towards him not playing. Then.
Speaker 3: On the also, Jabari Small one of their rotational backs.
Speaker 3: They have a couple other ancillary parts as well that
Speaker 3: are questionable. On the Florida side, the biggest one for
Speaker 3: them is Ventro Miller, their linebacker. Ventro Miller has had
Speaker 3: durability questions the past three years. Really when it's really
Speaker 3: weird to watch Florida's defense, regardless of who the coaches were, Mullan,
Speaker 3: the assistants, NAPI, or now, every time Ventro Miller is
Speaker 3: in the game, Florida's defense plays up. Whenever Ventro Miller
Speaker 3: is not in the game, it plays down. That much
Speaker 3: is irrefutably true. So if Ventro Miller is not playing
Speaker 3: against Tennessee, you like the matchup with Tennessee's offense against
Speaker 3: Florida defense. If Ventro Miller is playing for Florida, you
Speaker 3: would like Florida's defense in that matchup a little bit more,
Speaker 3: especially if Tillman isn't playing. But my number is really
Speaker 3: close to what the Vegas number is. I'm not showing
Speaker 3: any real discrepancy at all. All Yeah, it's too close
Speaker 3: to call. And I also don't know about these key players,
Speaker 3: what's gonna happen with them. My system, though, I will say,
Speaker 3: leans heavily towards the over of this game, but again
Speaker 3: that's not counting et cetera. Tillman if he ends up
Speaker 3: being out, which does compromise that that Tennessee receiving court
Speaker 3: because when he plays, they got three studs out there,
Speaker 3: it's really hard to defend them. So right now, I'm
Speaker 3: definitely not going to play the side no matter what.
Speaker 3: No matter what I hear, I will consider an overplay.
Speaker 3: I would love to hear that Tillman is going to
Speaker 3: play and that Miller is not going to play, and
Speaker 3: then I would get real confident in it. But I
Speaker 3: just don't know that yet. So I'm waiting on some
Speaker 3: information there. In emigaanst Arkansas, I'm staying away from that one.
Speaker 3: I don't have. I don't have a good read on
Speaker 3: either of these two teams. I've tried to fade both
Speaker 3: of them. So far, I've gotten closed, but no cigar.
Speaker 3: I tried to fad Arkansas and the opener against Cincinnati.
Speaker 3: I thought Cincinnati had a real shot to win that
Speaker 3: game outright as a six and a half point underdog,
Speaker 3: and because of the circumstances in that game, Arkansas not
Speaker 3: only ended up winning it but ended up covering. I
Speaker 3: think they won by seven and covered by half a point.
Speaker 3: And then A and M last week, you know, like
Speaker 3: I tried to bet Miami plus six and a half,
Speaker 3: and even though Miami actually had a good offensive game,
Speaker 3: they also had a good defensive game, they still failed
Speaker 3: to cover that game because I couldn't punch the touchdowns
Speaker 3: and once I got into the red zone. So I
Speaker 3: don't feel like I have a great read on either
Speaker 3: of these teams yet A and M. I do. My
Speaker 3: system has A and M favored by four point two points,
Speaker 3: so I guess my system would slightly lean towards A
Speaker 3: and M. But I'm definitely not gonna be touching that one.
Speaker 3: Baylor Iowa State. That's a really interesting one, especially with
Speaker 3: where the market has taken that line where it opened
Speaker 3: as Baylor minus one or one and a half and
Speaker 3: now it's Iowa say minus two and a half or
Speaker 3: even three at a lot of books right now. That's
Speaker 3: it makes you scratch your head a little bit because
Speaker 3: I don't know any sharp that thinks at full strength
Speaker 3: both these teams that Baylor is not the better team
Speaker 3: than i Aowa State. But unfortunately for Baylor, they're not
Speaker 3: at full strength. They have numerous guys that missed last week,
Speaker 3: and we don't know yet, but it doesn't seem to
Speaker 3: be trending well. The starting running back Ta McWilliams, their
Speaker 3: slot receiver Baldwin, the tight end Sims. I'm not even
Speaker 3: hitting all of them. There's even more guys. They're a
Speaker 3: little bit compromised, so they have some injury concerns there,
Speaker 3: and especially the thing that concerns you is the skill
Speaker 3: guys if they're out again. Blake Shapin has not looked
Speaker 3: as good as It's not me Baylor. Baylor thought Blake
Speaker 3: Shapen was gonna look better. They wouldn't have told Jerry
Speaker 3: Bohannon to go and kick rocks and leave if they
Speaker 3: knew that that shape wasn't gonna play as well. You wonder,
Speaker 3: is that because Shapan's been playing with skill guys that
Speaker 3: he didn't think he would be because of the injury concerns
Speaker 3: early on, or is shaping just not quite as good
Speaker 3: as they thought. Baylor's also played you know, they played
Speaker 3: byu that you know, they they played some teams so
Speaker 3: far they have you know, it hasn't been like Minnesota
Speaker 3: playing three cupcakes whatever. So so that stuff's up in
Speaker 3: the air with them, and and and perhaps because of that,
Speaker 3: that's why this line has moved to Iowa State minus three.
Speaker 3: I I know someone very close to the Baylor program
Speaker 3: who over the years has helped me out quite a
Speaker 3: bit with Baylor handicaps, because it seems like he's on
Speaker 3: every single time. I messaged that guy to ask him
Speaker 3: what he thought about this game, and he did not
Speaker 3: sound very confident on the Baylor side. And typically, I
Speaker 3: mean when he is confident, he'll let you know that
Speaker 3: he is confident. He is not confident in this game,
Speaker 3: perhaps because of a confidence of those factors. I can't
Speaker 3: bet Baylor because of all those different reasons. I also
Speaker 3: don't love Iowa State. Though they have a decent defense,
Speaker 3: the offense is super duper young. They didn't do much against.
Speaker 2: I lost everybody year.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Literally, Yeah, perty bresol the tight ends, most of
Speaker 3: the offensive line. Against Iowa, they didn't do a ton
Speaker 3: on offense. They ended up winning anyway because of the
Speaker 3: fumble at the goal line by Potty Bomb and then
Speaker 3: they had the I always stated their one good drive
Speaker 3: coming off of that, But I it's hard to trust
Speaker 3: them against Dave Randon defense too, So you're sort of
Speaker 3: on both sides being like, who can I trust? Classic
Speaker 3: stay away game. The Oregon Washington State game is interesting
Speaker 3: in from an information perspective. For me, I don't see
Speaker 3: an edge on this one, you know, just in terms
Speaker 3: of the numbers. I guess my numbers would slightly lean
Speaker 3: Oregon at at I think I got Oregon minus eight
Speaker 3: point eight. But I it's hard for me to take
Speaker 3: them off of their triumphant win last week when they
Speaker 3: slapped around BYU.
Speaker 1: We've seen them look really good and really bad, so
Speaker 1: it's hard to know who the real Oregon is right now.
Speaker 3: Well said, it's sort of you know, I'm coming to
Speaker 3: you live from Minneapolis. It's sort of like the Vikings
Speaker 3: in the first two game. They flapped around the Packers
Speaker 3: and then they got slapped around by the Eagles.
Speaker 2: It was I had them in that game yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the inverse in this case where Oregon got
Speaker 3: absolutely annihilated. It just got to run over like the
Speaker 3: you know, coyote or whatever in the first game by
Speaker 3: Georgia and then in the last game they were the
Speaker 3: team slapping around by the seem We mentioned that you
Speaker 3: know that have beaten Bailet pulled that game out in overtime.
Speaker 3: But BYU in that game was without both their their
Speaker 3: their top two receivers, Gunner Romney who hasn't played yet
Speaker 3: this year, and then Poka Nakua, so b Yu is down.
Speaker 3: And BYU went into that game off of that win
Speaker 3: against Baylor where they sort of had to figure things
Speaker 3: out and then scratch and claw and then pull it
Speaker 3: out in overtime, force overtime, then pull it out and overtime.
Speaker 3: Now Oregon comes in off that win, which is big
Speaker 3: for them. Now you have to travel out to the
Speaker 3: polue out there in Pullman, Washington, out up in the
Speaker 3: wilderness to play this Washington State team who has definitely
Speaker 3: played better than we have all anticipated so far. But
Speaker 3: I don't know anyone that can get their fingers totally
Speaker 3: on Washington State. They're not Mike Leach's Washington State. They're
Speaker 3: not Nick Rolovich's Washington State. This team is something different.
Speaker 3: They've clearly improved on defense. The offense will see they've
Speaker 3: done a better job of not putting themselves into bad spots.
Speaker 3: I think that maybe you would have thought heading in
Speaker 3: because cam Ward last year in the FCS, even though
Speaker 3: he put up Bazooka numbers, he threw a whole bunch
Speaker 3: of interceptions. Washington State is doing a better job of
Speaker 3: at least controlling the ball on offense, but they have
Speaker 3: not been as explosive nor I think as efficient overall
Speaker 3: as they have been in the past. This one, for me,
Speaker 3: it could go either way. I feel like Washington State
Speaker 3: is licking its chops with the situational spot. It's in
Speaker 3: getting that Oregon team off that win over BYU feeling
Speaker 3: itself slapping around BYU. Now they come in there, maybe
Speaker 3: you ambush them, But Oregon they're feeling good too. I
Speaker 3: think they think that they figured things out after that
Speaker 3: the disaster of the opener. For me, that's an informational game,
Speaker 3: and I think we're gonna get some good information out.
Speaker 1: Of it, all right, Going to the games that you
Speaker 1: like thor we only have two this week. Cincinnati is
Speaker 1: a fourteen point favorite, you like them much more than
Speaker 1: that against Indiana, and Louisiana is a nine point home
Speaker 1: favorite again or a road favorite, excuse me, against Louisiana Monroe,
Speaker 1: and you like them significantly more than that.
Speaker 2: Tell us about those games, if you would.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So one of these my system loves it and
Speaker 3: I love it, and then the other one my system
Speaker 3: loves it and I can't go with my system on it.
Speaker 3: The one that we both love is Cincinnati. Yeah, And
Speaker 3: producer Thomas will know all about this one, because Ray,
Speaker 3: when the lines dropped on Sunday, it was I was
Speaker 3: Jim Kramer, bye bye, bye, bye bye hammer Cincinnati because
Speaker 3: the books made a mistake opened it in single digits.
Speaker 3: You knows, Cincinnati minus eight or whatever because Indiana is
Speaker 3: undefeated in fluke circumstances. We'll talk about that in a second.
Speaker 3: But indeed it got immediately hammered up to Cincinnati minus
Speaker 3: fourteen by the time people woke up on Monday morning
Speaker 3: with Cincinnati minus fourteen and already jumped six points just
Speaker 3: because of the market movement on it. And but even
Speaker 3: that didn't go far enough. Like my addressed line in
Speaker 3: that game was like nineteen point eight, I guess, and
Speaker 3: and so then you know, got to fourteen by Monday morning,
Speaker 3: and then now it's up to sixteen and a half.
Speaker 3: I still don't think that's far enough for me. Until
Speaker 3: this thing gets up to twenty. It is too short.
Speaker 3: It just is Look at the resumes. Throw out the records,
Speaker 3: but look at the resumes and what actually happened. Yes,
Speaker 3: Indiana's three and zero, but in the first game they
Speaker 3: pulled a game out of their butts against Illinois where
Speaker 3: they were down for a lot of it, and then
Speaker 3: they had to drive the length of the field the
Speaker 3: very end to pull that game out after Brett Beilham
Speaker 3: and made all those stupid decisions when he got first
Speaker 3: and goalne and was just run up the middle, run
Speaker 3: up the middle, run up the middle, run up the middle,
Speaker 3: turn the ball over and then Indiana go is ninety
Speaker 3: nine years thir whatever. And then the next week Indiana
Speaker 3: hosts Idaho, who not only is Idaho and FCS team,
Speaker 3: they're not a particularly good FCS team. Last year they
Speaker 3: went four and seven. They'd lost the game heading into
Speaker 3: the Indiana one Idaho led Indiana on their home field
Speaker 3: ten to nothing at halftime. Indiana had to rally in
Speaker 3: the second half to beat them. And then last week,
Speaker 3: you know, we were talking all week love Western Kentucky.
Speaker 3: Love Western Kentucky. To upset Indiana. Don't even need the points.
Speaker 3: We tuck. It was a six and a half point underdog.
Speaker 3: They controlled that entire game. They did whatever they wanted
Speaker 3: to do, but Indiana justs hung around. You know, it's
Speaker 3: like the Teddy KGB.
Speaker 1: Yeah, hang around, hang around allgtor blood exactly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Indiana just they hung It kept feeling like it
Speaker 3: was on the precipice of getting out of hand on
Speaker 3: the Western Kentucky side, where you know, they would score
Speaker 3: a touchdown and then you know it's gonna like, you know,
Speaker 3: there's gonna be like sixteen points and then Indiana would
Speaker 3: have to go yolo in their passing game, we'd get
Speaker 3: a pick six and the route would be on. But Indy,
Speaker 3: it didn't happen. Indians kept hanging around, hanging around. They
Speaker 3: got the ball with three minutes left, they were down
Speaker 3: by eight. They drove the length of the field, scored
Speaker 3: the touchdown, got the two point conversion at the very
Speaker 3: very end, twenty seconds left, forced overtime. Western Kentucky missed
Speaker 3: the field goal in the front end of it. Indiana
Speaker 3: gets their field goal in the back end. So they
Speaker 3: ended up winning that game, another game that they had
Speaker 3: absolutely no business winning. So Indiana is a three to
Speaker 3: zero team who really should be one and two. And
Speaker 3: the game that you know again the win was against
Speaker 3: FCS Idaho when they didn't look good in that game either.
Speaker 3: And on the Cincinnati side, I sort of think it's
Speaker 3: the opposite. They maybe should have beat excuse me, Arkansas
Speaker 3: in the opener. That thing didn't go their way. But
Speaker 3: Cincinnati is a solid team. Last week they started out
Speaker 3: sluggishly against Miami of Ohio, who's an above average MAC team,
Speaker 3: but then Cincinnati just slapped them around after halftime. They've
Speaker 3: covered every line of that one, both the side, second
Speaker 3: half line, everything like that. Cincinnati is more talent than
Speaker 3: people think. And now that the quarterback play is established.
Speaker 3: After in camp, you know they were wondering, we're gonna
Speaker 3: go Bryant, Are we gonna go pray or how you know,
Speaker 3: what are we gonna do? What are we gonna do
Speaker 3: in the running back room, there's so many different names.
Speaker 3: They've sorted through that stuff now and now also the
Speaker 3: receiving course is starting to become more solidified as well.
Speaker 3: I love Cincinnati in this game. Again, this line should
Speaker 3: be Cincinnati minus twenty or minus twenty one, as long
Speaker 3: as you can get it under that, and certainly if
Speaker 3: you can get it fourteen or least by Cincinnati, that's
Speaker 3: It's one of my favorite plays of the week. And
Speaker 3: getting it even lower made me even more confident. But
Speaker 3: even in fourteen or you know, between that and seventeen,
Speaker 3: definitely a bye. The one where it's not that I
Speaker 3: disagree with my system, it's I just can't get my
Speaker 3: finger on this one. My system loves Louisiana or as
Speaker 3: some people will call him, Louisiana Lafayette. Yeah, at UO Monroe.
Speaker 3: In this case, my system has Louisiana or Louisiana Lafayette
Speaker 3: by seventeen and a half, and the live line has
Speaker 3: come all the way down to Louisiana minus nine. The
Speaker 3: reason that I can't bet it it's twofold. I have
Speaker 3: been a little bit higher on UE Monroe than the market.
Speaker 3: They swapped out their coordinators. They had Rich Rodriguez, an
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator before and Rich Rodrigez had already started as
Speaker 3: early what do you call soft quitting. Rich Rodriguez had
Speaker 3: already started his soft retirement. But before that, and Uele
Speaker 3: Monroe is not equipped to run his offense even when
Speaker 3: his kid was the quarterback. And then they had an
Speaker 3: equally big dope as a defensive coordinator. They swapped those things.
Speaker 3: They went back and got the defensive coordinator that they'd
Speaker 3: had Matt Lubik the last time that they were good
Speaker 3: on offense. You bring him back in. The offense has
Speaker 3: ticked up early on in the season, and the defense.
Speaker 3: It's not that the talent has jumped up, but they
Speaker 3: seem to be more at least on the same page,
Speaker 3: which is an upgrade over what we saw last year.
Speaker 3: Louisiana a team that had been dominant in that conference
Speaker 3: for the past several years under Billy Napier. You lose Napier,
Speaker 3: but not only that, Napier took some players with them,
Speaker 3: your best players. They lost some of the other players
Speaker 3: as well. They had lost all the NFL running backs
Speaker 3: that you remember from recent years, like in your memory,
Speaker 3: like Elijah Mitchell and Vegas and all REGs. To what
Speaker 3: I call Regas to Riches. I used to call that
Speaker 3: Trey Regas kid. But anyway, they had all these different,
Speaker 3: you know, NFL guys that they lost previously, and then
Speaker 3: you lose a bunch of the guys that transfers some
Speaker 3: of them with Napier. They're still trying to figure things out,
Speaker 3: and like I said, I can't get my finger on
Speaker 3: that team yet. Qualitatively, this line should be higher. Just
Speaker 3: that's dictated by the talent levels on both teams. Louisiana
Speaker 3: Lafayet certainly is the more talented team here, and they're
Speaker 3: more talented enough to justify a double digit spread on
Speaker 3: the road. It's just again, You and Roe has taken
Speaker 3: a little bit of a step up. We're talking about
Speaker 3: the dregs of the FBS, but they have taken an
Speaker 3: objective step up, whereas Louisiana Lafayette we know that they've
Speaker 3: taken multiple steps down. The question becomes just how far
Speaker 3: has Louisiana fallen. We're gonna get a better sense after
Speaker 3: this game, because if they boat race you wom and
Speaker 3: Roe at Uo Monroe. Uh. You know, I think I
Speaker 3: think some of the people that adjusted them way way
Speaker 3: down in their power rankings to justify a bet on
Speaker 3: you Monroe, which which is clearly happening. That's why this
Speaker 3: line has dropped as far as it right then you
Speaker 3: could sort of start toggling it back for you all Offayette,
Speaker 3: But I just can't trust them yet. It's like I
Speaker 3: don't know them. I don't know who the person on
Speaker 3: the other end of the door knocking is, you know,
Speaker 3: and I don't have the people, so I don't know
Speaker 3: if I can open that door or not. I know
Speaker 3: I can't trust me yet.
Speaker 2: Look, I agree with that.
Speaker 1: Anything else for week four, I mean I think we
Speaker 1: covered most of it here, So anything else from you Thor,
Speaker 1: that's all I got, That's all we got, It's all
Speaker 1: we need.
Speaker 2: So that is going to wrap it up for us.
Speaker 1: Remember you can follow us on the Twitter at Bogman Sports,
Speaker 1: for myself, at Thor ku for Thor and Thor. What
Speaker 1: do you have coming up this week? What's on docket
Speaker 1: for you?
Speaker 3: Yeah? We got the best bets call. I'm coming out tomorrow.
Speaker 3: It's into the Publisher. Should be up by the morning
Speaker 3: whenever you guys wake up. Then on Saturday, My show
Speaker 3: with Mike Ferrell, the Kickoff Show starts at ten am
Speaker 3: Eastern nine am Central. We go for ninety minutes and
Speaker 3: hit as many games we possibly can on the cart sides, totals, props,
Speaker 3: the whole gamut. So definitely check that out if you.
Speaker 1: Haven't, absolutely and for me, you can catch me here.
Speaker 1: You can catch me on Fantasy Pros with Joe Pisa,
Speaker 1: Piatzac and IDPs and Thorn and I also do a
Speaker 1: Betting Pros Discord chat every single Wednesday at five pm Eastern.
Speaker 2: It's free, it's f R double.
Speaker 1: If you guys got a bet you want to come
Speaker 1: in and ask us about it, please feel free to
Speaker 1: join us. We'd love to take your questions have I mean,
Speaker 1: we go through games in there, but we just haven't
Speaker 1: been getting a lot of questions, so we love something
Speaker 1: We've answered.
Speaker 3: Every single literally every Lewis raised their hand, we've answered.
Speaker 3: So if you guys want to talk to us, want
Speaker 3: to get a pick in, ask a question, we will
Speaker 3: call on you up up front. If you're in there,
Speaker 3: you raise.
Speaker 2: Your hands absolutely.
Speaker 1: I also do a Betting Pros Twitter space on Friday
Speaker 1: at five eastern as well, so please join me in that.
Speaker 1: If you would catch me on CF you winning edge
Speaker 1: as well, talk to college football with my guys Nick
Speaker 1: and Savier over there as well, so but that'll wrap
Speaker 1: it up for us. Good luck and you'll see you
Speaker 1: guys next week. Have a great Week four everybody,