WEBVTT - CFB Week 4 Breakdown with Scott Bogman and Thor Nystrom (Ep 205) 0:00:00.560 --> 0:00:03.280 Welcome back, everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Show. 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:03.760 I'm your host. 0:00:03.840 --> 0:00:06.640 Scott Bogman followed me on the Twitter at Bogman Sports. 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:08.200 I am joined as. 0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:11.880 Always by the you know, the the Pride of Kansas 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:15.040 at Thor k you on the Twitter machine. It is 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:19.040 Thor and Eystrom. Your Jayhawks are rolling. Look, I hated 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:20.880 it last year when they burned me. I went all 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:22.840 the way out to Austin to see my Longhorns play. 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:25.640 The Jayhawks upset him on a two point conversion at 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.240 the end of the game when Texas climbed back into 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:31.520 it after being down. But hey, they're making me money 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:34.080 this year, so we like them. I think we're gonna 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:37.960 ride that over again for Kansas this week. But Thor, 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:40.720 you gotta be doing pretty good watching your Jayhawks year. 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:42.960 How's how's Week four treating you so far? 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:46.559 Any any weekend Jayhawk football wins, it's a good weekend. 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.760 And of course, the better team won last year in Austin, 0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:52.520 and the better team certainly won yes or a couple 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:55.000 of days ago when they played Houston, just like it 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:57.840 did when they played West Virginia. So hoping Kansas can 0:00:57.920 --> 0:00:59.880 keep it rolling. Their three and oh just like Thomas 0:00:59.880 --> 0:01:02.840 the producer Syracuse Orange or three in all, and now 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:07.600 Kansas gets Duke. So yeah, crossing the fingers, crossing the fingers. 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:10.000 And my loser team is the only one ranked out 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:12.920 of that bunch, and we're two and one. So you know, 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.520 played Alabama Hart but obviously I couldn't get it done. 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:19.000 But as always, we're gonna start with the Thursday and 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:21.080 Friday games. We're gonna tell you where the cash is 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:24.000 on some of these games. We got a decent amount 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:26.640 of spreads and a couple over unders. Then we'll hit 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:29.720 the top five big games of the week and then 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:32.800 talk about thor's differences. So let's start out with these 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.679 Thursday and Friday games. We have six, but only five 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:39.400 are on the slate. In terms of betting, I believe 0:01:39.400 --> 0:01:43.160 Illinois plays like Chattanooga. Yeah, so there's no real line 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:47.039 in that game. So start out with Coastal minus two 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:49.360 at Georgia State the over and that one is sixty 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:52.000 one and a half. We got WVU minus point and 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:54.480 a half on the road at Virginia Tech. That one 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:58.200 has kind of gone back and forth. Virginia at Syracuse 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:00.760 Syracuse is minus eight and a half the overs fifty 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.080 two and a half in that game. That one is 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:06.520 on Friday, Nevada air Force. Another Friday matchup, air Force 0:02:06.600 --> 0:02:09.440 a twenty four point home favorite. I guess Nevada Nevada 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:12.400 has looked terrible forty five is the over in that game? 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.359 And Boise State fifteen and a half point road favorites 0:02:15.360 --> 0:02:17.640 on the road against UTEP forty five and a half? 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:18.799 Is he over in that game? 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:22.440 Or do you have any strong leans name of these 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:24.799 Thursday Friday games? What are you looking at in this 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:26.280 grouping here? 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:30.840 Yeah, for sure, let's take them day by day on Thursday. 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:35.720 It's interesting because sharpbetters they love two of this, so 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.560 they love both these games one particular side. I agree 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:41.400 with them on one of them, and I don't agree 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:43.880 with them on the other one. The side where I 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:47.160 agree with the sharp betters is Virginia Tech. I think 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:51.720 that's the objectively right side. Virginia Tech Day. Some things 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:54.840 they have not done very well this year. Other things 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:57.400 they're doing better, And I think they might be a 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:01.040 little bit better than people think. You know, people are 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:02.600 having a hard time getting it out of their head. 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:06.200 Them getting upset by old dominion in that first game. Yeah, 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.920 And I think it's just they're not bad. Yeah. I 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.920 mean they almost almost upset Virginia last week, you know, 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:16.160 for instance. And I think All Dominion's gonna win this 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:19.200 week handily too. But we'll get to that later on maybe. 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:22.080 But yeah, I mean, I've not been impressed with West 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:24.320 Virginia on any of my viewings. I came into the 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:27.760 season lower on West Virginia than other folks. The one 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.000 thing that West Virginia has shown that they can do 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:34.000 decently well on offense this year is generate explosive runs. 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:36.880 But when the passing game isn't at least getting the 0:03:36.880 --> 0:03:40.920 short completions, that bogs down too. They have to be 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:44.040 completing the passes to get teams away from from starting 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:46.760 to stack the box against some that Donaldson kid just 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:49.760 came out of nowhere. The problem has been West Virginia's 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:51.960 passing offense has not been as good I think as 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.160 some people had hoped. JT. Daniels, who has been run 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.720 out of his last two starting jobs. He has not 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:01.160 refound the five star pedigree that came out with, and 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:03.320 they don't have a really good receiving core. There's been 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:05.400 a lot of drops with West Virginia so far this year, 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:09.200 so I question whether they can pass the ball effectively 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:12.600 enough against West Virginia to open up the opportunities to 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:16.360 get those chunk runs disincentivized Virginia Tech from putting people 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:19.520 in the box, et cetera. Virginia Tech that what they're 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.760 best at. It's their defense. They struggle a little bit 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:26.040 on offense, of course, but if they can play the 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:30.000 low scoring, grinded out games, I mean, that's what they 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:31.880 want to do, and I think that they're going to 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:35.560 be able to get that here. I also like the 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:39.640 under probably, like you probably think that my adjusted total 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:41.560 in the game is forty one and a half, it's 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.279 fifty two and a half live. So to me, I'm 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:46.800 seeing more of a low scoring game that Virginia Tech 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:49.080 pulls out at the end of the game. My adjust 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.920 side on that game is Virginia Tech minus three point eight. 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.599 So I have the other team favorite. So I like 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.400 Virginia Tech to pull you know, the small upset. I 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:01.640 won't consider an upset, but I think Virginia Tech is 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.160 gonna win the and the you know, like I was 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:07.040 alluding to the sharps are on Virginia Tech and Mass 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:09.680 In that game. The Sharps are also in mass on 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:13.320 Georgia State. You know the game that kicks off. Oh, 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:15.120 it looks like the exact same time. I hate when 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:18.000 they do that on the Thursday nights. Give us give 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:18.640 us a split. 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:18.960 Look. 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.000 I gotta I gotta be honest, store, My Steelers are 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.200 playing tomorrow, so I won't. You know, I'll have it 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:28.000 on the second screen. But I know, and my family knows, 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.880 and my neighbors know that I'll be screaming at my 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:34.080 television for Pittsburgh. But I'll take a look at it. 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:35.919 But yeah, I don't like it when they do that. 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.160 Either give us a late game or an early game, 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.080 just separate them a little bit. They even did that 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:42.640 on Monday Night Football, by the way, with those two 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:44.360 games starting in the middle of each other. 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:45.280 I don't like that either. 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:49.200 Like I prefer that though you don't prefer yeah, I mean, 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:51.080 because then they're not ending at the same time. The 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:52.200 progression is different. 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:54.560 You can well, no, no, no, but but I would 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:56.960 rather have one finish and then pick up the other one, 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:58.320 you know what I mean, kind of like they do 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:01.520 NBA playoff games, like let them finished and then do 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:01.960 the other one. 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:03.960 Would you rather have it? Would you rather have the 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.279 time stagger to start or at the exact same time? 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:07.760 Oh, definitely Stagg. 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:13.559 Who feels the same way apparently one for sure. 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.640 But do you have a you have a lean in this? Yeah, 0:06:18.240 --> 0:06:18.880 in Georgia State. 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:21.520 In that one, I would be lean. So so the 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:23.400 first one is a bet for me. I am on 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.960 Virginia attack. I I like Virginia attack. This one. I 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:30.039 lean the other way, but from where the sharp money 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:32.719 is going. But I'm not going to bet it because 0:06:32.760 --> 0:06:35.200 I you know, I respect the sharp money. They might 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:37.919 be seeing something that I'm not seeing. But I like 0:06:38.000 --> 0:06:40.279 Coastal Carolina in this game. You know, you have a 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.200 three and oh team against an O and three team, 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:44.960 and yet the majority of the money is coming in 0:06:45.040 --> 0:06:46.880 on the oh and three team, even though the more 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:50.440 tickets have been bought on on Coastal Carolina. But the 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:53.719 Sharps were also on Georgia State last week when they 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.640 they definitely didn't cover I'm trying to remember who they 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:59.719 were playing, but the shar The Sharps seemed to believe 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:04.400 very much Charlotte to st Yeah, so they were on them, 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:06.040 and I think they might have even been on Georgia 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:08.200 State the week before as well, and we had talked 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.960 in our discard thing about how Chris Reynold's coming back 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.120 change the equation for Charlotte. So maybe you don't blame 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:15.520 the Sharps for not knowing he was going to be 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.040 back by It seems like that's a team where the 0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:20.880 Sharps have been higher on them throughout the season so 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:25.160 far and remain so now that sharp's very clearly, you know, 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.520 I mean, you know, not all of them, you know, 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:29.880 I mean, you know, however many there are, I'm sure 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:34.400 it's not completely uniform, but by the numbers, that's where 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:37.280 the money is coming in on on Georgia State. But again, 0:07:37.400 --> 0:07:40.440 Georgia State hasn't looked great this year. Definitely not as 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:42.520 good as we thought they would be, you know, I mean, 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:44.520 like I think some people were hoping that they could 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.080 sort of emerge near the top of that sun belt. 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:48.920 You know, we we had seen the growth of that 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.840 program under Sean Elliott, and they were bringing so many 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.520 guys back and stuff like that. But the quarterback hasn't 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:57.280 looked good in the limited exposure that I've gotten to him. 0:07:57.520 --> 0:08:00.240 There's been some accuracy, a version there and when the 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:02.360 passing game is not going, the running game is played down. 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:04.880 They also haven't played as good on defense. It's the 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:08.520 reason that they're on three. They also have injury concerns 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:11.200 in this game. It's there's too many guys to list. 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:14.080 But Georgia State has like five key contributors that are 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:16.760 questionable right now, and I don't know if they're gonna 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:18.240 play or not, or if they do, are they going 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:21.320 to be compromised, et cetera. Coastal Carolina was the team 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:24.960 that lost everybody over the offseason except for Grayson McCall. 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:27.520 But you know, we see what they've done in the past. 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:29.880 You were just sort of in the early season trying 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:31.840 to get sort of a read on how good that 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:35.240 team is. Now, we'll have a better idea coming out 0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:38.360 a Thursday night. But I like Coastal Carolina more heading 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:40.960 in than Georgia's State. But you know, again, just because 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.599 of what the market's telling me and my experience with this, 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:46.200 I'm not going to bet that out of respect for 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.559 some of these sharp players, but I would lean Coastal Carolina. 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:53.160 All right, what do you like in the Friday games? 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:57.280 Like we mentioned before, we've got Virginia at Syracuse, Nevada 0:08:57.360 --> 0:08:59.480 Air Force, Boise State at UTAP and look, if you 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.120 don't have a good lean, we can skip them. But 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:03.920 do you like anything for Friday Night? 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:06.840 I got one bet on Friday Night and the other 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:10.000 two I have what I would feel like are legitimate leans, 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:13.240 even though I haven't met them yet. I like Syracuse 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.480 a lot on you know, in the first one. That 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:18.640 game kicks off at six pm Central, seven pm Eastern. 0:09:18.640 --> 0:09:21.200 And I'm not just saying that because Thomas is producing 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:23.120 and he'll make my screen go black if I if 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.760 I go the other way with Virginia. But I don't 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.319 understand why this line is not already in the double digits. 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:33.200 It seemed like, you know, it opened at Syracuse minus eight, 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.720 and I was talking on the Sunday Show with Thomas, 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:37.840 this thing's going to be double digits in a blink, 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.360 and it actually was like it toggled up to like 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:44.720 minus ten on Monday. But it's weird because there's been 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:47.360 a little buyback since then. And I don't know who's 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:49.840 betting on Virginia. I don't know what you could have 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:53.040 seen of Virginia to this point to be confident in them. 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:57.040 Virginia has very clearly taken numerous steps down since the 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.240 end of last season. Lost the coaching staff, They lost 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:03.400 their entire offensive line, a couple of them to graduation. 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.120 The rest of them just up and left. You know, 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.320 the center went to Michigan and etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. So 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.600 you had to you had to replace the coach, Jeff, 0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.520 You had to replace the entire offensive line. The defense 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.160 already wasn't very good. You were just sort of hanging 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:18.640 your hat on the idea that they had a star 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:23.040 quarterback in Brennan Armstrong and then four NFL receivers. Well, 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:26.920 the problem so far is the offensive line is so leaky. 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.280 On the Virginia side, Armstrong can't even sit back there 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:34.920 and survey for the receivers. He's getting pressure immediately. They're 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:39.040 running running game, which wasn't good before, it's still not good. 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:42.400 And so it's like this one dimensional offense who is 0:10:42.440 --> 0:10:46.240 being extremely handicapped by the offensive line that they're playing behind. 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:49.080 It has taken, you know, sort of taking the wings 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:53.000 off of the aerial attack. And then on the Syracuse side, 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:55.760 you tell me how Virginia is going to defend this offense. 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:58.560 I don't know how they defend either the running game 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:00.760 of Schrader and Tucker. I think they're going to run 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:02.959 all over them. I also don't know how Virginia is 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:06.040 gonna defend the sideline of sideline passing game, which Syracuse 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:08.440 did not. I mean, they had the dominant run offense before. 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:11.080 Now they have the sideline to sideline passing game as well. 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.400 I don't know how Virginia is going to defend any 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:15.960 of it. My ad justed line on this game is 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.959 Syracuse minus twelve point eight. I don't need to me personally. 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:22.160 I don't even think that goes far enough. If I 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:23.760 was to send this line, it would be more like 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:27.040 Syracuse minus fourteen minus fourteen and a half. If you 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:30.800 can get Syracuse in the single digits, absolutely by the ticket. 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:34.240 All right, let's go to some games with an enormous 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:38.480 amount of cash on one side, and thora I wrote 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:39.800 on the sheet. 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:40.920 It's in the private chat there. 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:43.760 I put the tickets on there as well, so you 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:47.000 can see where all of these games are. We're going 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:51.120 to start with UCF minus twenty versus Georgia Tech that's 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.559 got ninety nine percent of the cash on it, which 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:56.120 was just a crazy amount. 0:11:56.240 --> 0:11:57.360 Usually just don't see that. 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:03.640 Uga minus forty five has considerable amount of cash on that. 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.640 Utah at Arizona State. Of course, Arizona State just firing 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:10.680 Herman Edwards has an enormous amount of cash. That one 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:13.480 is actually much closer on the tickets. Georgia and Utah 0:12:13.880 --> 0:12:16.000 much closer on the tickets. Is a big discrepancy in 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:21.040 UCF Utah minus or excuse me, Memphis minus eleven and 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:24.199 a half versus North Texas has got a big chunk 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:27.600 that's a little closer in the tickets than normal. Auburn 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.720 minus seven against Missouri has a massive amount of cash. 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:34.840 Georgia Southern minus ten versus Ball State as well in 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:39.640 unlv at Utah State minus two and a half has 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:41.000 a big amount of tickets. 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:42.320 So when you look at. 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.000 Those games, is there one or two that you either 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:48.520 love you're definitely on the cash side, or that you 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.720 just despise and you say, how can we be laying 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.200 this many points? Because there's no underdogs in this that 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:59.800 are getting the cash. It's all favorite. So a lot 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:01.800 of people think that these teams are just going to 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:02.800 absolutely dominate. 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.000 There's a couple of these that I've already bet and 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.760 then there's a couple that I have leans on that. 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.040 Let me ask you first that the UCF Georgia Tech. 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.360 So that's ninety nine percent of the money is on UCF, 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:18.280 but only fifty two of the tickets. Is that what 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:18.960 it is? Yes? 0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:22.120 Yeah, that's uh, I mean that's what I saw yesterday. 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:24.959 So yeah, the uh that one. 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:27.000 Let me give you an updated number on that one. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.400 Yeah, for it real and as you are, you know, 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.920 I'll just sort of fill the audience in and we 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.720 talked a little bit about this one on on the discord, 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.120 uh that we do right before this where. 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.040 Ninety six it hasn't moved a bunch. 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:45.160 Wow. Yeah, the UCF, not only, of course, are they 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:49.000 the objectively better team, and not only do you wonder 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.920 about Georgia Tech's mindset and how their effort is going 0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:55.760 to be in this game because the Jeff Collins era 0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.079 we have reached just about midnight when he turns into 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.120 a pumpkin. I don't know if it's gonna happen after 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.920 this game, the game after that, we'll see. We've had 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:08.360 one coach firing each of the last two Sundays. Are 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:12.720 we're gonna get Jeff Collins On on Sunday, We'll have 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.240 to see it's it's it's definitely in play. Uh Jeordia Tech. 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.280 They're a team that doesn't do anything good. But the 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.560 thing that they're objectively the worst at it's defending the run. 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:25.800 That's what you see. It's by far what UCF does 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:29.480 the best. Uh you know, I mean UCF has. The 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.800 quarterback is very much John Rey's plumbley, very much in 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.440 line with the quarterbacks that how do I put this? 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:40.240 Gusmells On fetishizes he's like sort of in the same 0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:43.360 bucket as like a Nick Marshall, where it's like, you know, 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.200 I mean, you know, like they they you know, I 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:47.440 burnet Cam Newton for the one year, but like with 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:52.280 you know exactly it's it's it's a guy with who 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.240 can scramble, who can also he has a little bit 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.600 of arm strength, and his biggest weakness by far is accuracy. 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.600 Gus has always been to work with those guys. 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:03.240 That's just the easiest. 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:06.880 I'll fix them, you know, Uh, they've got the arm, 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:08.000 they've got the wheels. 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:09.280 I'll fix the accuracy. 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:13.000 That's like that's the arrogance of most coaches, is I 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:14.440 can fix anybody, right. 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.120 Yeah, And and I think you know the way Gus 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:19.720 sees it is when my running game is humming, and 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.240 if I have a quarterback like that, it will be 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.680 because his offensive lines are typically good, the running back 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.600 talent is typically good, the running back room is typically deep. 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.960 That that once that thing gets rolling downhill and they 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.480 start playing the tempo and it's like six yard run, 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.600 they sprint back to the line, snap it right away, 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:37.920 five yard run and then you know, stuff like that. 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.920 The defense gets on their heels and then that's when 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:42.760 you open up the passing game. So you can sort 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:46.880 of solder over some of the accuracy limitations just by 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.600 getting the defense on their heels and all of a sudden, 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:51.160 we do the quick pass off to the left, you know, 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:55.680 et cetera. Gus we talked and you know in the 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:58.680 previous show about how Gus had some very weird play 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.160 calling tendencies against Louis that may have cost UCF that game, 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.920 But that was a game where UCF was trailing by 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:07.400 a possession or whatever for a large part of it. 0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:10.320 You wouldn't anticipate that they're going to be trailing against 0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.560 Georgia Tech. So the game script that you need to 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.360 get the blowout would seem to be right there for 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.760 you where because once UCF gets that double digital lead, 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.160 that's when they become crazy scary because now it's the 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:24.200 sprint back to the line and they're run and run 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.600 and running, et cetera. They don't have to put John 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.760 Reeve's plumb lee back in the pocket and ask him 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:31.080 to survey, which is what they did way too much 0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:33.640 against Louisvillan. Again, in my opinion, that gave the game 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.840 away through that they match up well here. But this 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.640 is a very big number, especially when you're not crazy 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.360 confident in UCF. But there's no chance I would bet 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:45.080 Georgia Tech in that game. If I had to bet, 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.000 I would definitely be leaning in UCF. 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.040 Are there any other games out of this group that 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:54.040 you have a good lean on between? Yeah, the Jive 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:58.320 Utah Lane fourteen, Memphis eleven and a half, Auburn seven, 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:00.800 Georgia Southern ten, and you don't beat two and a half. 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:03.920 So that I have one on this group of games. 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.919 I have one ticket purchased so far. Uh. That ticket 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:10.160 was on Auburn minus six and a half. It's now 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.840 ticked up to seven. I totally understand that. I think 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:15.520 that the line, this line is going to be above 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.000 seven by the time it kicks, who knows, maybe even 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:19.560 by the time we get off, you know, get off 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:25.199 the recording. It it opened low because nobody wants to 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:28.399 bet on Brian Harrison, and everybody expects Brian Harson not 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:31.280 to be their coach next year. I understand all that. 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:33.520 I also, you know, we talked about this before, but 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:36.880 Brian Harson's game plan in the last game against Penn 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:39.480 State was one of the dumbest things that I seen 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:42.080 all season. It was even dumber than Gus letting Plumby 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:44.720 throw thirty three times in a close game against Louisville 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:49.560 where Penn State's defense they really really struggle tackling. They're 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.280 they're tackling conversion rates bottom ten in the country. And 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.439 Auburn did not give the ball to the guy who 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.360 is the hardest to tackle on their sideline, Tank Bigsby, 0:17:57.600 --> 0:17:59.399 touched the ball eleven times in that game. It just 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:02.160 made absolute no sense. Yeah, the game was just getting 0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:05.120 away from Auburn, and Harson seemed to be panicking more 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:08.560 and more as it did. This game. You know, we 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.280 talk about like the game scripts and what that facilitates. 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:14.440 You would not expect Missouri to be able to ambush 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:18.720 Auburn in this spot. Missouri has bad quarterback play Number one. 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:22.280 The receiving room is not as good as people wanted 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.639 it to be. Yet, you know, they had signed Luther Burden, 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.080 the five star receiver. I think people thought he'd come 0:18:28.119 --> 0:18:30.159 in right away and be like the college version of 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.479 Randy Moss. He's not playing well so far. Like I mean, 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:37.240 he's playing and he's getting some catches, but like you know, 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:40.119 on a personal basis, it hasn't been the best. That 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:43.680 the routes are clearly not totally polished yet, the ball 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:46.040 scales need a little bit of work, et cetera. The 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:48.159 rest of their receiving core is not that great. It's 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:50.320 a bunch of cast sass from other schools or else 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:52.480 guys that were stuck you know, on the depth chart 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:55.119 like earlier in their careers, et cetera. And then the 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:57.840 running game they I mean, that's what last year they 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:00.920 funneled all the touches to Tyler Bade, both in the 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.760 running game and also in the receiving game. Tyler Baty, 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.840 of course, is now on the Baltimore Ravens that Missouri 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.480 now has gone to this like they're rotating like three 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.480